THE POWER OF 4

It is the established opinion of this blog that the Oilers would be wise to solve their defensive issues without dealing any of the key forwards—specifically Hall, Nuge, Eberle, Draisaitl and promising young Connor McDavid. Beyond difficult of course, but Matt Tkachuk may come to the rescue.

  • Elliotte Friedman: “I think there are going to be a lot of people who are going to want to get into that spot (No. 4) to get their hands on Tkachuk. I think if anything, this tournament has kind of cemented the fact that he’s No. 4. And who knows, maybe in somebody’s eyes he’s even higher. God only knows. But I think that now the draft really begins there, and Edmonton knows it. The fact that that line has a dominant performance at the Memorial Cup – I think it only cements it.“ Source

Without overstating the issue, big if true. We have talked all spring about gathering defensive talent while also keeping the three centers and skill wingers. Could this be the key to the offseason? Here’s hoping. Could Peter Chiarelli deal No. 4 and Darnell Nurse to the Calgary Flames for No. 6 and Dougie Hamilton? No. However, there might be a sweet spot in the 6-10 area where the Oilers general manager can have his cake and eat it too.

The NHL expansion story was not cleared up much yesterday, but at least the guessing can begin. It looks like the rules are in fact going to have more spine than previous drafts, and that is good for the NHL. You may think a 10-1 game is fun—with your team scoring 10—but it really isn’t good viewing. Among the more interesting items in Seravalli’s story:

  • Players with no-move clauses in contracts will likely need to be counted among the players required to be on a team’s protected list, but Daly did not confirm that for certain.
  • Daly reiterated that first and second-year professional players are “exempt and don’t need to be protected.” When asked whether that meant a player entering his third season would also be exempt, such as a William Nylander for instance, Daly did not answer.

One thing I hope we can eventually confirm: Expiring contracts, like Andrew Ference and Lauri Korpikoski, will not count toward the expansion draft. I have read countless passages stating same, even though there is no precedent for it. If you are Lauri Korpikoski, you have earned your free agency, why is the NHL taking it from you?

I have a mountain of experience with expansion drafts, and it pains me seeing Oilers fans worrying about losing Darnell Nurse or Leon Draisaitl. If we use the 1-3-7 format, and can agree that Connor McDavid and Darnell Nurse would not be eligible for the draft, my protected list would be:

  • Goalie: Cam Talbot
  • Defense: Andrej Sekera, Oscar Klefbom, Brandon Davidson
  • Forwards: Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle, Leon Draisaitl, Benoit Pouliot, Nail Yakupov, Patrick Maroon

The Las Vegas Siegels would very likely choose one of Laurent Brossoit, Griffin Reinhart, Jordan Oesterle or Zack Kassian. What is more likely? Oilers will make a pre-draft trade of Nail Yakupov to LV for future considerations, one of those considerations being the selection of Anton Lander in the expansion draft.

The Oilers (traditionally) grab players who have attended the combine with great zeal. It makes sense—the top 100 players are invited, Edmonton has picked a lot inside the top 100. That said, the club has also chosen Combine kids well into the 100s:

2008 Oilers draft

  • Jordan Eberle selected #22 overall, ranked #29 (attended combine)
  • Johan Motin selected #103 overall, unranked (attended combine)

2009 Oilers draft

  • Magnus Paajarvi selected #10 overall, ranked #10 (attended combine)
  • Anton Lander selected #40 overall, ranked HM (attended combine)
  • Toni Rajala selected #101 overall, ranked #50 (attended combine)
  • Olivier Roy selected #133 overall, ranked HM (attended combine)

2010 Oilers draft

  • Taylor Hall selected #1, ranked #1 (attended combine)
  • Tyler Pitlick selected #31, ranked #25 (attended combine)
  • Martin Marincin selected #56, ranked #71 (attended combine)
  • Curtis Hamilton selected #48, ranked 57 (attended combine)
  • Ryan Martindale selected #61, ranked 58 (attended combine)
  • Tyler Bunz selected #121, not ranked (attended combine)
  • Brandon Davidson selected #162, not ranked (attended combine)

2011 Oilers draft

  • Ryan Nugent Hopkins selected #1, ranked #1 (attended combine)
  • Oscar Klefbom selected #19, ranked #21 (attended combine)
  • David Musil selected #31, ranked #41 (attended combine)
  • Samu Perhonen selected #62, ranked #51 (attended combine)
  • Travis Ewanyk selected #74, ranked HM (attended combine)
  • Tobias Rieder selected #114, unranked (attended combine)

2012 Oilers draft

  • Nail Yakupov selected #1, ranked #1 (attended combine)
  • Mitchell Moroz selected #32, ranked #56 (attended combine)
  • Jujhar Khaira selected #63, not ranked (attended combine)
  • Daniil Zharkov selected #91, ranked #47 (attended combine)

2013 Oilers draft

  • Darnell Nurse selected #7, ranked #9 (attended combine)
  • Marco Roy selected #56, ranked #59 (attended combine)
  • Bogdan Yakimov selected #83 not ranked (attended combine)
  • Jackson Houck, selected #94 not ranked (attended combine)

2014 Oilers draft

  • Leon Draisaitl selected #3, ranked #4 (attended combine)

2015 Oilers draft

  • Connor McDavid selected #1, ranked #1 (attended combine)
  • Caleb Jones selected #117, ranked #130 ISS (attended combine)
  • Ethan Bear selected #124, ranked #78 ISS (attended combine)
  • John Marino selected #154, ranked #95 ISS (attended combine)

What does that mean? If you scan the combine list, many of the (potentially nine) players Edmonton will draft in June should be on it. Some interesting names (did this last year, identifying young Caleb Jones as an interesting player):

  • Jonathan Dahlen, who is Ulf’s boy and appears to be a very fine two-way prospect. I have him at No. 41.
  • Matt Filipe, a center with size and skill (I have him at No. 78).
  • Luke Green, a RH defenseman with ample offense (I have him at No. 74).
  • James Greenway, a giant blue with offense, he was a revelation at the U18s. (I do not have him ranked, trying to suss him out).
  • Lucas Johansen, an impressive two-way defenseman (I have him at No. 31).
  • Beck Malenstyn, a big WHL center with shy offense.
  • Charlie McAvoy, a fine prospect who has flown (mostly) under the radar (I have him No. 13).

LHD

We talked yesterday about acquiring a lefty in order to gather enough depth to trade a current LHD for help on the other side. Here is a quick initial list of major free agents who are available:

  1. Alex Goligoski, Dallas. He would be an outstanding option, 24 minutes a night.
  2. Brian Campbell, Florida. I know he is an older fellow, but the man is effective.
  3. Keith Yandle, NY Rangers. Takes care of the offensive defenseman issue in one fell swoop.

All three men are going to be very expensive, and with the expansion draft ahead ideally a one-year deal could be completed. Unlikely. I will have a more complete list tonight or tomorrow, eventually combining the left and right options.

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159 Responses to "THE POWER OF 4"

  1. Klima's_Bucket says:

    The Oilers only selected one right shot Dman from 2010-2014.
    But it is not a problem.
    They are just getting ahead of the game for the inevitable overcorrection in the market when everyone starts swooping up all the right shot options.
    God, Tambi was smrt.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    The Oilers only selected one right shot Dman from 2010-2014.
    But it is not a problem.
    They are just getting ahead of the game for the inevitable overcorrection in the market when everyone starts swooping up all the right shot options.
    God, Tambi was smrt.

    Did anyone know about the six percent rule in 2010? 2012? 2014????

  3. hags9k says:

    Ha! I was just about to ask for a link about the 6% mentioned in the last thread! Where can I look at those numbers?

    All this gnashing of teeth about L-R. If they’d have just kept Petry. Man.

  4. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    I’m hopeful that the “emergence of Tkachuk” as the clear-cut number 4 will enhance the desire of a team to trade up to grab him. I still believe the 4 – 10 selections are basically a crap shoot at this point.

    My dream is that we find a way to turn #4 into 7 and 20 from Arizona.

    We then use one of those two picks to trade for an NHL RHD, and use the other to stock the cupboard a little longer term with a quality Dman (ideally Fabbro at 20).

    Almost certainly won’t happen, but that’s what I’ll hold out for over the next few weeks.

  5. Ducey says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    The Oilers only selected one right shot Dman from 2010-2014.
    But it is not a problem.
    They are just getting ahead of the game for the inevitable overcorrection in the market when everyone starts swooping up all the right shot options.
    God, Tambi was smrt.

    2 RH Dmen last year – Bear and Marino
    And Jeremie Blain in 2010.

    So yeah.

    At least someone figured it out last year.

  6. Professor Q says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    I’m not sure if Fabbro makes it that low…

  7. Aitch says:

    I know in the past you’ve mentioned that some of the players get invited to the combine at the request of certain teams. Do we know if any of the late picks who attended the combine were there because of the Oilers or someone else? Hard to give them credit for picking someone at the combine who was only at the combine because of them. (Unless we’re talking about Brandon Davidson… in which case, good job scouts!)

  8. Lowetide says:

    Aitch:
    I know in the past you’ve mentioned that some of the players get invited to the combine at the request of certain teams. Do we know if any of the late picks who attended the combine were there because of the Oilers or someone else? Hard to give them credit for picking someone at the combine who was only at the combine because of them. (Unless we’re talking about Brandon Davidson… in which case, good job scouts!)

    That information has never been released (as far as I know).

  9. Woodguy says:

    I am going on the record here about which positions the Oilers will protect.

    If its a choice between 7 forwards, 3 Dmen and 1 goalie OR 8 skaters and 1 goalie then the Oilers will pick the 2nd option and protect 4 Dmen.

    Not sure which forwards will be protected as its not Oct 1 yet and I don’t have the opening roster of the 16/17 season.

    If nothing changes up front it will be 4,93,14, 29

    Out back it will be 77, 2, New Hire RHD, 88.

  10. Doug McLachlan says:

    Regarding expansion, one item mentioned in Frank Seravelli’s article that is interesting is that there will, apparently, not be a requirements to expose a % of a team’s cap.

    While specifically helping teams like Chicago, where the NMC contracts take up almost all their cap space, it also means that the Expansion Draft rules don’t have to be locked into a team’s pre-July 1st roster. As a result, expiring contracts like Ference’s with its NMC, would not need any protection.

    Always made sense to exclude them but until the start date for looking at contracts moved from July 1st to a later date, it wasn’t clear how the NHL could get the correct outcome.

  11. slopitch says:

    That 4th pick goes up in value if the expansion draft is confirmed no?

    I have a hard time seeing Chai trading Tkachuk. Especially if he is considering signing a Lucic type at 6 million per. Tkachuk is exactly the type of forward that the Oilers need. A team is going to have to step up and offer a trade involving a top RHD. In my head, I keep going back to the Pronger trade. The ducks acquired him without moving Perry or Getzlaf. Yes you could use the same argument that the Oilers aren’t offering Drai or Nuge but these guys are established NHLers (not prospects). Different times sure but the cap is flat this year and teams are up against it. Trading Yak or one of the LHD to get a RHD seems like a much better long term solution for the Oilers. And while the team HAS to improve big time next year, the play is still the longer term.

  12. reckless restraint says:

    *DRAFT SPAM*
    I’m going to be running profiles on the draft eligible players available on the Hamilton Bulldogs. I’ve started with Ben Gleason (LD). This series is very much inspired by Lowetide’s “How Good Is…” that ran last year over at Oilersnation.

    http://www.recklessrestraint.ca/2016/05/30/ben-gleason-draft/

    *END SPAM*

  13. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    I’m hopeful that the “emergence of Tkachuk” as the clear-cut number 4 will enhance the desire of a team to trade up to grab him.I still believe the 4 – 10 selections are basically a crap shoot at this point.

    My dream is that we find a way to turn #4 into 7 and 20 from Arizona.

    We then use one of those two picks to trade for an NHL RHD, and use the other to stock the cupboard a little longer term with a quality Dman (ideally Fabbro at 20).

    Almost certainly won’t happen, but that’s what I’ll hold out for over the next few weeks.

    Agreed. I’m hoping for the biggest drop in a trade down while still staying in the 2nd tier of prospects (4-11?). That #4 and Reinhart for #10 and Barrie everyone is talking about would be glorious. Then flip Yak and Fayne for Severson and Sign Demers, The Summer of Pete!

    Granted the oilers expansion protection then changes to:
    Sekera
    Hall
    Nuge
    Klefbom
    Barrie
    Demers
    Eberle
    Severson
    Talbot

  14. reckless restraint says:

    Looks like Edmonton has a little bit of a history taking unranked players who attended the combine. Going to comb through the names, but off the top does anyone know if there is anyone attending this year who wasn’t ranked by Central Scouting?

  15. JimmyV1965 says:

    Hey Woodguy, do you have any insight into Chris Wideman, a RHD with the Senators? He cracked the NHL lineup for the first time last year, but his point totals in the minors are very intriguing.

  16. Woodguy says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Hey Woodguy, do you have any insight into Chris Wideman, a RHD with the Senators? He cracked the NHL lineup for the first time last year, but his point totals in the minors are very intriguing.

    I don’t know him at all.

    I do know that points, and particularly 5v5 points (especially for Dmen) in lesser leagues than the NHL are very good indicators of success at the NHL level.

  17. digger50 says:

    I expect a similar draft to 2015, in that Chia will pick a first rounder, (4th or trade down and pick) and every other pick will be utilized for trade.

    Chia has identified what kind of team he seeks to build and the player type he is looking for. He has also stated time is important. I believe the average fan has no interest in the farm or the prospects, they want to see the big team competitive. period. Thus the objective of “restocking the cupboards” from the draft is low on Chia list. Another reason why he is looking at prospects outside the draft.

    With other teams in cap trouble and the expansion looming, opportunity is knocking. I think we see picks packaged for NHL players squeezed out of other organizations.

  18. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    slopitch:
    That 4th pick goes up in value if the expansion draft is confirmed no?

    I have a hard time seeing Chai trading Tkachuk. Especially if he is considering signing a Lucic type at 6 million per. Tkachuk is exactly the type of forward that the Oilers need.A team is going to have to step up and offer a trade involving a top RHD. In my head, I keep going back to the Pronger trade. The ducks acquired him without moving Perry or Getzlaf. Yes you could use the same argument that the Oilers aren’t offering Drai or Nuge but these guys are established NHLers (not prospects). Different times sure but the cap is flat this year and teams are up against it. Trading Yak or one of the LHD to get a RHD seems like a much better long term solution for the Oilers. And while the team HAS to improve big time next year, the play is still the longer term.

    See I’m in this camp right here both MT and PLD seem like bonafide “mini- Lucic’s” to me and I agree that it would have to be a substantial return for Chia to move that pick. Then again I’m also very swayed by other smarter than me folks on this blog who point out that 4-10 seems like a bit of a crap shoot.

    I can see Chia trading down but I can’t see him trading out when there are so many decent power forwards and defensemen available that will cost pennies for the next five years.

    Gord I enjoy psyching myself up for a blockbuster summer (almost fully aware that it cannot live up to my expectations)!

  19. Bruce McCurdy says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Hey Woodguy, do you have any insight into Chris Wideman, a RHD with the Senators? He cracked the NHL lineup for the first time last year, but his point totals in the minors are very intriguing.

    I’m not Woodguy, but I saw a fair bit of Wideman with USA at the Worlds. He made a much bigger impression than I was expecting, good puck mover & decent in the o-zone. Small, though (5’10, 181). Righty. Superficially, reminds of Jared Spurgeon. Important note: Wideman is almost as old as Spurgeon, diff of just a few weeks.

  20. Lowetide says:

    digger50:
    I expect a similar draft to 2015, in that Chia will pick a first rounder, (4th or trade down and pick)and every other pick will be utilized for trade.

    Chia has identified what kind of team he seeks to build and the player type he is looking for. He has also stated time is important. I believe the average fan has no interest in the farm or the prospects, they want to see the big team competitive. period. Thus the objective of “restocking the cupboards” from the draft is low on Chia list. Another reason why he is looking at prospects outside the draft.

    With other teams in cap trouble and the expansion looming, opportunity is knocking. I think we see picks packaged for NHL players squeezed out of other organizations.

    He may, but even with the college signings (and Sallinen) the 2015 draft had one forward inside. Oilers have traded off most of the last two drafts, there is danger in doing it again.

  21. Магия 10 says:

    LT: “One thing I hope we can eventually confirm: Expiring contracts, like Andrew Ference and Lauri Korpikoski, will not count toward the expansion draft.”

    Yeah, I’ve looked and seen nothing either way on the expiring NMC. Does not affect the player on July 1. So the NHL could go 3 different ways:

    1. protected under quota (hits too mamy teams to pass?)
    2. protected for free (why renew NMCs in the months BEFORE the draft when you can keep them from the Vig this way?)
    3. claimable rights to June 30th if not protected (in practice not different from 2 as who would protect or claim?)

  22. Lowetide says:

    Магия 10:
    LT: “One thing I hope we can eventually confirm: Expiring contracts, like Andrew Ference and Lauri Korpikoski, will not count toward the expansion draft.”

    Yeah, I’ve looked and seen nothing either way on the expiring NMC. Does not affect the player on July 1. So the NHL could go 3 different ways:

    1. protected under quota (hits too mamy teams to pass?)
    2. protected for free (why renew NMCs in the months BEFORE the draft when you can keep them from the Vig this way?)
    3. claimable rights to June 30th if not protected (in practice not different from 2 as who would protect or claim?)

    I think the only reason the NHL would include those contracts is to punish teams, and cannot imagine the 30 league members signing off on it.

  23. Магия 10 says:

    “The Las Vegas Siegels”

    Lordy the Nevada Golden Siegels with white skates and everything. Too bad Tyler Sequin isn’t UFA until 2019.

  24. Магия 10 says:

    Lowetide: I think the only reason the NHL would include those contracts is to punish teams, and cannot imagine the 30 league members signing off on it.

    Exactly. Need strong majorities to get things through that board.

  25. digger50 says:

    Add: 2 defencemen / 1 goalie / 3 forwards
    Lose: Korpikoski / Letestu / Yak / Fayne / Lander / Rienhart

    1/ #4 plus G.R. for #10 and Barrie
    2/ Draft best player available who is most NHL ready. Chychrun / Brown
    3/ Picks for RNC Andrew Shaw type
    4/ Picks plus Yak for R Strome
    6/ Fayne RHD value for picks/prospect or other opportunity
    7/ Picks for any other NHL ready opportunity
    8/ Free agent signings (fill in holes as needed) Demers and Brower

    Hall / Nuge / Drai
    Marroon / McD / Eberle
    Pouliot / Shaw / Brower
    Hendricks / Strome / Kassian
    Caggulia / Logan Brown? / Sleppy

    Klefbom / Demers
    Sekera / Barrie
    Nurse / Davidson
    Osterle / Gryba
    Chychrun?

    Lots of details to sort but point being if the focus is turning draft into young NHL roster, forget about stocking the cupboard for now, this draft can get a lot done.

  26. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    I don’t think either of them seem like Lucic’s.

    Lucic isn’t unique because he’s a power forward who can pot 30. Nor because he’s big, or because he’s a possession driver.

    What makes Lucic fundamentally unique is that he’s a golden glove’s level fighter that can score. He scratches the itch for having a true enforcer on the team, while still playing effectively in the top 6. It’s how he can punch people, not how he throws a hit.

    PLD seems to be more Backes than Lucic.

  27. Professor Q says:

    Also, Lowetide, yesterday you were talking about the Expos, and said they left in 1994.

    Is this a fan euphemism? As I’m sure they were there until 2004…

  28. Professor Q says:

    Магия 10:
    “The Las Vegas Siegels”

    Lordy the Nevada Golden Siegels with white skates and everything. Too bad Tyler Sequin isn’t UFA until 2019.

    Imagine golden skates.

  29. Lowetide says:

    Professor Q:
    Also, Lowetide, yesterday you were talking about the Expos, and said they left in 1994.

    Is this a fan euphemism? As I’m sure they were there until 2004…

    For me, 1994 was the end. First place, brilliant team, Steinbrenner and Selig shut it down. Snapped the cord, and I am a better man for it.

  30. godot10 says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    The Oilers only selected one right shot Dman from 2010-2014.
    But it is not a problem.
    They are just getting ahead of the game for the inevitable overcorrection in the market when everyone starts swooping up all the right shot options.
    God, Tambi was smrt.

    MacT was GM for 40% of that time. Tambellini was in charge 2010-2012 drafts. MacT 2013-14. And MacT was already advising in 2012, when the scouts were overruled on Murray.

  31. godot10 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    I’m hopeful that the “emergence of Tkachuk” as the clear-cut number 4 will enhance the desire of a team to trade up to grab him.I still believe the 4 – 10 selections are basically a crap shoot at this point.

    My dream is that we find a way to turn #4 into 7 and 20 from Arizona.

    We then use one of those two picks to trade for an NHL RHD, and use the other to stock the cupboard a little longer term with a quality Dman (ideally Fabbro at 20).

    Almost certainly won’t happen, but that’s what I’ll hold out for over the next few weeks.

    Arizona is in the sweet spot for picking a D, which is what I expect is what they want.

    They have Strome and Dvorak at centre. Domi and Duclair at LW. Their D pipeline is sort of bare.

  32. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide,

    Understandable! I never heard much about the Expos growing up, to be honest, and that might have been the reason. Bred a Blue Jays and Cleveland fan. :p

    My brother left the Phoenix fandom finally (got fed up with a inept desert team, and the lockout didn’t help), and then was only a casual fan of Vancouver until after the riots and when the Jets came back (he was a Jets fan in the ’90s).

  33. Ducey says:

    We have not talked about him much, but Shattenkirk could be a trade target.

    He is UFA next June. The Blues have Pietrangelo and now Parayko on the right. Parayko will be RFA and looking at a raise next summer too. And they have cap problems.

    Apparently the Blues GM said yesterday when asked about Shattenkirk that the player and the Blues need to make a business decision.

    With Hitchcock on a one year deal (and apparently retiring thereafter) no doubt they want to go for it, which means they could not trade Shattenkirk at the deadline. If they want to avoid losing him for nothing, the time to trade him would be this summer.

  34. godot10 says:

    slopitch:
    That 4th pick goes up in value if the expansion draft is confirmed no?

    I have a hard time seeing Chai trading Tkachuk. Especially if he is considering signing a Lucic type at 6 million per. Tkachuk is exactly the type of forward that the Oilers need.A team is going to have to step up and offer a trade involving a top RHD. In my head, I keep going back to the Pronger trade. The ducks acquired him without moving Perry or Getzlaf. Yes you could use the same argument that the Oilers aren’t offering Drai or Nuge but these guys are established NHLers (not prospects). Different times sure but the cap is flat this year and teams are up against it. Trading Yak or one of the LHD to get a RHD seems like a much better long term solution for the Oilers. And while the team HAS to improve big time next year, the play is still the longer term.

    Tkachuk is exactly the type of forward the OIlers do NOT need. Lucic can skate.

    McDavid and Nugent-Hopkins, and even Draisaitl play fast, or should play fast.

  35. Professor Q says:

    Ducey,

    There was a period where all we did was talk about Shattenkirk here. :p

    The consensus at the end was that it wouldn’t be worth it.

  36. Professor Q says:

    godot10: Tkachuk is exactly the type of forward the OIlers do NOT need.Lucic can skate.

    McDavid and Nugent-Hopkins, and even Draisaitl play fast, or should play fast.

    Tkatchuk can definitely skate.

    But we should definitely quit this tiring ‘argument’ with false claims less Lowetide blocks us all.

  37. Snowman says:

    I see no real argument for taking Tkachuk ahead of PLD. PLD is a better skater, bigger, heavier, younger, scores better at evens and had more PIMs for the grittier folks.

    Tkachuk is getting a lot of miles out his last name and Marner/Dvorak and the London nights effect. He’s a very good prospect but I can’t understand how anyone really sees him ahead of PLD. And yes I’ve watched both play as much as I could’ve.

    Having said that I’m not going to be overly upset if the Oil pick MTk at 4. I just don’t think he’s going to be better than PLD.

    Edit: I should add the PLD appears to be a better goal scorer and MTk a better playmaker. Playmakers we’ve got by the truckload. Goal scorers we don’t.

  38. Ducey says:

    Professor Q:
    Ducey,

    There was a period where all we did was talk about Shattenkirk here. :p

    The consensus at the end was that it wouldn’t be worth it.

    Yeah, I seem to remember Woodguy didn’t like him. I think he will be moving though, and Chia likely will be in on him.

  39. Water Fire says:

    Woodguy:
    I am going on the record here about which positions the Oilers will protect.

    If its a choice between 7 forwards, 3 Dmen and 1 goalie OR 8 skaters and 1 goalie then the Oilers will pick the 2nd option and protect 4 Dmen.

    Not sure which forwards will be protected as its not Oct 1 yet and I don’t have the opening roster of the 16/17 season.

    If nothing changes up front it will be 4,93,14, 29

    Out back it will be 77, 2, New Hire RHD, 88.

    This solves the problem of acquiring defense now and losing them later.

    I like LT’s thought from a while back of getting a too good back up goalie, and that the expansion team will grab him. I’d overpay to do that, I think at this point the cap can handle it.

  40. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: For me, 1994 was the end. First place, brilliant team, Steinbrenner and Selig shut it down. Snapped the cord, and I am a bitter man for it.

    FTFY

  41. Jethro Tull says:

    How much Tka can a Tkachuk chuck, if a Tkachuk could chuck Tka?

  42. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: FTFY

    Ha! No, I rarely think about baseball now. Distant bell.

  43. John Chambers says:

    Woodguy:
    I am going on the record here about which positions the Oilers will protect.

    If its a choice between 7 forwards, 3 Dmen and 1 goalie OR 8 skaters and 1 goalie then the Oilers will pick the 2nd option and protect 4 Dmen.

    Not sure which forwards will be protected as its not Oct 1 yet and I don’t have the opening roster of the 16/17 season.

    If nothing changes up front it will be 4,93,14, 29

    Out back it will be 77, 2, New Hire RHD, 88.

    This is the optimal strategy for Chiarelli and the Oilers. They’ll ultimately have to expose both Yak and GR, as well as Pouliot, Maroon, and Kassian.

    It’s why we can only acquire 1 RHD who needs protecting, while I advocate adding a short-term UFA to also bolster the D – Campbell is a LHD but the one most likely willing to sign a 2-year deal. The best part is the contract is off the books when McD’s post-ELC contract begins.

    Chiarelli will need all financial resources available to match a potential offer sheet.

  44. Tapdog says:

    LT, I have a question:

    After reading your comment yesterday regarding a definitive gap on Jesse Puljujarvi over Pierre-Luc Dubois or Matthew Tkachuk, would you say that JP is more of what the Oilers need going into this draft over the other two?
    It was mentioned on here that Clb could be considering PLD over Puljujiarvi , due to his ability to play the middle and their need for a center.

    If so, would it be wrong to consider a trade possibility with Clb?
    #3 and Savard for #4 , Nuge +??
    Would there be a plus, what would the plus have to be?

    Clb could end up with Nuge , PLD and ??? Covers a few gaps for them and we get a RW’er for Connor and a second pairing RHD?

    Thoughts? Way off?
    Anyone?

  45. Lowetide says:

    Tapdog:
    LT, I have a question:

    After reading your comment yesterday regarding a definitive gap on Jesse Puljujarvi over Pierre-Luc Dubois or Matthew Tkachuk, would you say that JP is more of what the Oilers need going into this draft over the other two?
    It was mentioned on here that Clb could be considering PLD overPuljujiarvi , due to his ability to play the middle and their need for a center.

    If so, would it be wrong to consider a trade possibility with Clb?
    #3 and Savard for #4 , Nuge +??
    Would there be a plus, what would the plus have to be?

    Clb could end up with Nuge , PLD and ???Covers a few gaps for them and we get a RW’er for Connor and a second pairing RHD?

    Thoughts? Way off?
    Anyone?

    I think it is absolutely worth talking about, and a great idea. David Savard is a player of interest imo and moving up does in fact have value. The thing about Puljujarvi is that (imo) you are getting a vastly different player—more dynamic, more of a two-way reputation. The one concern comes from his pro scoring numbers, but I have faith that the scouts (McKenzie list) would have measured his ability to be a scorer.

    I would not deal Nuge and 4 for Savard and 3, but there is a deal in there somewhere.

  46. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Snowman:
    I see no real argument for taking Tkachuk ahead of PLD. PLD is a better skater, bigger, heavier, younger, scores better at evens and had more PIMs for the grittier folks.

    Tkachuk is getting a lot of miles out his last name and Marner/Dvorak and the London nights effect. He’s a very good prospect but I can’t understand how anyone really sees him ahead of PLD. And yes I’ve watched both play as much as I could’ve.

    Having said that I’m not going to be overly upset if the Oil pick MTk at 4. I just don’t think he’s going to be better than PLD.

    Edit: I should add the PLD appears to be a better goal scorer and MTk a better playmaker. Playmakers we’ve got by the truckload. Goal scorers we don’t.

    1) Connor McDavid is a goal scorer. Elite playmaker too, of course, but not Only that. Jordan Eberle can also put the biscuit in the basket.

    2) Tkachuk became much more of a (goal) scoring threat as the season developed. He tied for fourth on the club in goals during the season, but was #1 in the playoffs & Memorial Cup with 25 in just 22 games. He also was fifth on the team in shots during the season, but #1 in both the OhL playoffs & Mem Cup with 106 shots in 22 postseason games. Perhaps his game is still developing. 😐

    3) Unfortunately Godot has established he can’t skate a lick, so there’s that.

    4) PLD is also an excellent prospect. I am not saying Tkachuk s better, just that I’m not buying in to this rush to judgement providing lists of reasons to disqualify him. He is a very serious candidate for #4 overall.

  47. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy:

    4) PLD is also an excellent prospect. I am not saying Tkachuk s better, just that I’m not buying in to this rush to judgement providing lists of reasons to disqualify him. He is a very serious candidate for #4 overall.

    I agree. If anyone says Dubois is a bad choice at No. 4, or Tkachuk is, then it has to be more than the math suggests it, or quite frankly, an amateur scouting eye.

    Lots of concern from this blog about claims being made in the name of both players.

  48. Ducey says:

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/former-maple-leaf-arcobello-signs-2-year-deal-swiss-club/

    Arco off to Europe.

    Following up on the bird discussion, I think I am going to call these type of guys Hummingbirds.

    Small, nice boxcars in the minors, but not with the range of skills to allow them to stick in the NHL

  49. blainer says:

    digger50:
    I expect a similar draft to 2015, in that Chia will pick a first rounder, (4th or trade down and pick)and every other pick will be utilized for trade.

    Chia has identified what kind of team he seeks to build and the player type he is looking for. He has also stated time is important. I believe the average fan has no interest in the farm or the prospects, they want to see the big team competitive. period. Thus the objective of “restocking the cupboards” from the draft is low on Chia list. Another reason why he is looking at prospects outside the draft.

    With other teams in cap trouble and the expansion looming, opportunity is knocking. I think we see picks packaged for NHL players squeezed out of other organizations.

    I think with a flat cap and expansion looming this has the potential to be a crazier draft than last year. I am expecting a ton of trades.

    If there is expansion It will be a tough decision to sign two RT D and protect them.

    Love the idea though of trading down to get that RT shot D and stay in the first round.

    I really believe that Chia has a lot options on the table with that pick and wonder if the best thing is to keep it and sign Demers if possible.

    Expect a bunch of dominos to fall if expansion occurs.

  50. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I’m not Woodguy, but I saw a fair bit of Wideman with USA at the Worlds. He made a much bigger impression than I was expecting, good puck mover & decent in the o-zone. Small, though (5’10, 181). Righty. Superficially, reminds of Jared Spurgeon. Important note: Wideman is almost as old as Spurgeon, diff of just a few weeks.

    Ya. That’s the rub. Small and a bit older for a rookie. But his point totals in the AHL are interesting – 18 then 51 then 61. I guess it’s encouraging to know there are guys out there flying under the radar. Hopefully, PC can come up with some deal that takes us all by surprise.

  51. commonfan14 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I’m not Woodguy, but

    This really needs to become a thing…

  52. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Ducey,

    Umm, Shattenkirk has been talked about plenty here. Stauffer said the guy wants to play in the Eastern US when his contract is up. Doubt Chia chases him unless he changes his tune.

  53. Snowman says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I more or less agree with most of that. I don’t think of Mcdavid as a goal scorer though. I think he scores goals because of his insane talent but I think he defers to the pass more often than not (more than he should). I’ll give you Eberle (he’s been traded so many times my mind ignores him as an Oiler now I guess).

    I have no issue with Tkachuk at number 4. I just feel like he’s got more question marks than Dubois. I like Tkachuk a lot. He’s a tremendous prospect but most of the arguments that can be made for him can also be made just as convincingly for Dubois. If two players are close, my preference is to prioritize even strength scoring and skating ability.

    I think Dubois has an edge for those two reasons but I don’t pretend to think either is significantly better than the other. I’d be happy with both.

  54. G Money says:

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  55. Death By Misadventure says:

    Lowetide: He may, but even with the college signings (and Sallinen) the 2015 draft had one forward inside. Oilers have traded off most of the last two drafts, there is danger in doing it again.

    LT, I think this can be resolved by Chia pulling a “MacTavish” in the 2017 draft and trading down several times to acquire more picks. That would be one way for Chia to solve the issue of trading away draft picks for NHLers in the last 2 years plus potentially this year as suggested by Digger.

  56. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy:
    I am going on the record here about which positions the Oilers will protect.

    If its a choice between 7 forwards, 3 Dmen and 1 goalie OR 8 skaters and 1 goalie then the Oilers will pick the 2nd option and protect 4 Dmen.

    Not sure which forwards will be protected as its not Oct 1 yet and I don’t have the opening roster of the 16/17 season.

    If nothing changes up front it will be 4,93,14, 29

    Out back it will be 77, 2, New Hire RHD, 88.

    I tend to agree in that if Demers signs here there is no way he does so without a NMC. Why sign here only to be left exposed for Quebec or Vegas to grab him.

    So if Demers signs then you need to protect:
    Klef
    Sekera
    Demers at a minimim on the blue
    Then you have Davidson and Reinhart to choose from, assuming Nurse is exempt.

    A lot of people are saying not to trade 4 (exempt asset) for a roster player (non-exempt), but are overlooking the likelihood Demers commands a NMC as well.

  57. square_wheels says:

    Ducey,

    I recall an article that had many sources indicating he was planning to pursue UFA status and sign in the east. Specifically, the NE teams (Bos,Rags,Phi etc).

    I like the player but he is one year from UFA…..Chia better be sure his agent is serious about his resigning in the west.

  58. vinotintazo says:

    If we keep #4, whoever they pick, they must get it right, specially if 2 div rivals are picking right after you.

    I prefer PLD,Tkachuk,Chichrun in that order. (Havent seen any play other than highlights)

    Would not be suprised if any of the above are picked and will be happy.

    If is that close, I think it will come down to who ever is more of a chia type.

  59. Younger Oil says:

    Not the best source, but saw that Ottawa was heavily interested in the #4 pick APG.

    #4+Reinhart+Yakupov for #12+Ceci+Lazar, or something along those lines would be a hell of a trade.

    Then take RHD McAvoy at #12 and that’s a big step towards balance.

  60. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Death By Misadventure: LT, I think this can be resolved by Chia pulling a “MacTavish” in the 2017 draft and trading down several times to acquire more picks. That would be one way for Chia to solve the issue of trading away draft picks for NHLers in the last 2 years plus potentially this year as suggested by Digger.

    There is also still the matter of compensating Boston. Getting another 2nd rounder opens up the possibility of giving up the compensation pick but still having the offer sheet tool available.

  61. DBO says:

    The expansion draft means this year’s pick has even more value. Because it is protection exempt. The Org better have a plan with all our players for next year because we will lose a good young player for nothing unless they get creative.

    For that reason, this year’s high pick has even more value. They better get a lot for it if they move it

  62. LMHF#1 says:

    I don’t agree with the idea that parity is desirable for a professional sports league in terms of quality of product, or creating memories.

    It is clearly good for television numbers (see the NFL), but not in terms of creating or seeing anything great.

    Making dynasties nearly impossible is a horrible thing. The 80s Oilers and Islanders, the Canadiens at various times, the Yankees in several stretches throughout the years, the Steelers, the Lakers and Celtics…this is sport at its best.

    The antithesis of sport is punishing a team for its success by making it impossible to keep the players it procured and giving it lower draft picks.

  63. square_wheels says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I’m curious what Dallas is planning this off-season as well, if they are going to pursue re-signing Goligoski but if he leaves they keep Demers ? They cant afford to lose both unless somehow they get a serious discount on a UFA.

    Both players would likely prefer to stay in Big D, they’re only a real goalie and some Lombardi-esque shenanigans do rid themselves of their current duo to get to the West final……….assuming Dallas isn’t actively pursuing the same players we are, while not having the stench we have – million $$$ question.

  64. maxwell_mischief says:

    I have it set in my head that LV will be called Grand
    like
    The Las Vegas Grand
    or like
    United LV

  65. Professor Q says:

    Bruce McCurdy: 1) Connor McDavid is a goal scorer. Elite playmaker too, of course, but not Only that. Jordan Eberle can also put the biscuit in the basket.

    2) Tkachuk became much more of a (goal) scoring threat as the season developed. He tied for fourth on the club in goals during the season, but was #1 in the playoffs & Memorial Cup with 25 in just 22 games. He also was fifth on the team in shots during the season, but #1 in both the OhL playoffs & Mem Cup with 106 shots in 22 postseason games. Perhaps his game is still developing.

    3) Unfortunately Godot has established he can’t skate a lick, so there’s that.

    4) PLD is also an excellent prospect. I am not saying Tkachuk s better, just that I’m not buying in to this rush to judgement providing lists of reasons to disqualify him. He is a very serious candidate for #4 overall.

    Indeed!

  66. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    LMHF#1,

    Agree that it’s the great teams we remember and identify with. The Lakers, Bulls, Celtics dynasties.
    The Habs (several times), Isles, Oilers dynasties.
    The Packers, 49ers, Eskimos.
    The Yankees (several times)

    etc.
    But in the absence of that possibility in a salary cap era, what do you do? Without a cap the Oilers and Flames would not have survived the late 90s. The Leafs, Rangers, Hawks and a few others would spend their way to the Cup.

    Without a cap you wind up with the EPL. Sure Leicester pulled off a miracle but that is so rare.

    Dynasties are good for sports becauae everyone loves a tried and true champion, but parity is the next most preferable outcome for memory and legacy generation while balancing the interests of keeping small market teams afloat.

  67. Caramel Batman says:

    John Chambers: This is the optimal strategy for Chiarelli and the Oilers. They’ll ultimately have to expose both Yak and GR, as well as Pouliot, Maroon, and Kassian.

    It’s why we can only acquire 1 RHD who needs protecting, while I advocate adding a short-term UFA to also bolster the D – Campbell is a LHD but the one most likely willing to sign a 2-year deal. The best part is the contract is off the books when McD’s post-ELC contract begins.

    Chiarelli will need all financial resources available to match a potential offer sheet.

    If you sign Demers and then lose him one year later in the expansion draft that’s not a problem. It certainly isn’t a problem compared to not signing him at all.

  68. Tapdog says:

    Lowetide,

    What would you say is correct for compensation going from 4 to 3?

  69. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    square_wheels,

    Nill is smart enough to trade for someone we had no idea was even available. I do believe that. He has pumped and dumped Chiasson nicely, turning him into Spezza. He will likely find a way to pump and dump Hemsky or Eakin for a good defender should he lose one of Goligoski or Demers.

  70. square_wheels says:

    Younger Oil,

    if Chia landed that in a trade – give him the keys to Katz’s kingdom.

    Ceci is a gem, thought he was arguably the fastest D skater I’d seen in a while – I think he’s close to being an impact D and he’s just finished his draft +5 season.

    WG/Gmoney – where does Ceci rank ?

  71. Jethro Tull says:

    If we sign Jason Demers @ 6M x 6yrs, then I don’t think we have to worry about protecting him, unless he suddenly becomes Shea Weber before the expansion.

  72. Lowetide says:

    G Money:
    *** SHAM ALERT ***

    For those of you truly vested in the Cup Finals, the OilersNerdAlert format post-game statistical breakdown for the SJ-PIT series is being published over at BeerLeagueHeroes.

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  73. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Caramel Batman: If you sign Demers and then lose him one year later in the expansion draft that’s not a problem.It certainly isn’t a problem compared to not signing him at all.

    Except you are forgetting to ask: why would Demers sign a multi-year deal with a team this summer without a NMC?

    He wouldn’t.

    If I am him I ask for 5 or 6 years at 5.5m with NMC or 7 years at 7m without. The latter is laughable, but has the same effect as a NMC as no expansion team would touch that contract. If I sign a multiyear deal with a team, it’s not going to be so that I can be left exposed one year later.

  74. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Jethro Tull:
    If we sign Jason Demers @ 6M x 6yrs, then I don’t think we have to worry about protecting him, unless he suddenly becomes Shea Weber before the expansion.

    Beat me to it. Overpay him enough and you won’t need to protect him. But it’s a risky strategy when it comes time to re-sign Drai, Nurse, McDavid with a flat cap.

  75. LMHF#1 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    LMHF#1,

    Agree that it’s the great teams we remember and identify with.The Lakers, Bulls, Celtics dynasties.
    The Habs (several times), Isles, Oilers dynasties.
    The Packers, 49ers, Eskimos.
    The Yankees (several times)

    etc.
    But in the absence of that possibility in a salary cap era, what do you do? Without a cap the Oilers and Flames would not have survived the late 90s. The Leafs, Rangers, Hawks and a few others would spend their way to the Cup.

    Without a cap you wind up with the EPL. SureLeicester pulled off a miracle but that is so rare.

    Dynasties are good for sports becauae everyone loves a tried and true champion, but parity is the next most preferable outcome for memory and legacy generation while balancing the interests of keeping small market teams afloat.

    I would have preferred a luxury tax system as this allows for flexibility. The NHL thankfully hasn’t gone ‘full NFL’, but the Oilers with their current owner could certainly do better under another system. I really prefer what MLB is right now to the NHL, though it certainly isn’t perfect.

    I’m mostly thinking about the connection to an expansion draft and the comment LT made in the opener. There should be 10-1 games. There should be horrible hockey teams. It’s just part of the process. They should not punish the fans of long-suffering franchises by taking better players away than necessary to enhance their expansion experiment and leave us all with more mushy middle.

    I hope the intent behind the decisions that will be made isn’t to create more mush. I suspect it is. Mush is no good for fans of a team. Any team. Mush is fine for ‘NFL fans’ because it’s more about beer, wings, gambling and a day off than anything else.

  76. zatch says:

    Younger Oil,

    This is not good. I’m not sold Ceci is any better than Reinhart (I believe his fancystats are poor, as he is by eye) and Yakupov to Lazar is not nearly enough of an upgrade for me to move from 4th to 12th.

    Ottawa as a team and city/media massively overate local boys. The Ottawa Sun actually included Ceci in their list of Team Canada WC snubs.

  77. Amadeus says:

    Is this PLD vs Tkatchuk debate similar to the Doan vs Kelly debate?

    Steve Kelly put up 72 points in 68 games.
    Shane Doan put up 94 in 71.

    Kelly was known as the better skating. Doan is bigger/stockier.

    We all know who the Oilers should have chosen. This draft is anyone’s guess.

  78. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy,

    Sorry for the wall of text.

    A while back I read/heard somewhere that Oilers had been linked to Dennis Wideman. First reaction was “get real”. But then asked myself the question Why? And put together a small piece of inductive reasoning.

    Assuming Expansion Draft happening 2017 and Oilers in Win Now mode
    Premise: Oilers will trade for a #1 D if they can. Justin Faulk type. A (preferably RHD) minute muncher who can QB a PP and push everyone down one slot. They attempt to do this because they have the trifecta…the perfect storm of …1)collateral (Nuge Ebbs 4OV Nurse)…2)Capspace…and 3)Cap pressure on other teams. (an interesting study of pressure and time)

    However, a trade the magnitude of this one can just up and vanish like a fart in the wind.

    So Contingency: they aquire a Jason Demers type. (namely Jason Demers).
    Under this scenario you still lack a PP quarter back and whoever you add (Vatenen/Barrie) will either have to be left unprotected or cause Brandon Davidson ( Homegrown Value Contract) to be left unprotected.

    Possible solution: RHD Dennis Wideman 1 year left on a 5.5 million per year contract. Calgary would be happy to shed the cap space so cost to us might be minimal (draft picks). Assuming we already have a Demers type, we get through this year with

    Klefbom Demers
    Sekera Fayne
    Davidson Wideman
    Etc

    Next year we protect 4-4-1
    Hall Nuge Draisaitl Eberle
    Klef Demers Sekera Davidson

    Bonus A: We can keep our 2016 4OV who (assuming another year in CHL) will be on entry level contract for 17-18 18-19 and 19-20
    Bonus B: Chia gets to see McDavid’s team (with the 3 Steve Austins intact) healthy and together for a full year (gords willing)
    Bonus C: Wideman contract expired

    Left unprotected in either scenario is Pouliot, Maroon and other 2016 adds ( Shaw/Brouwer or whoever) Can only loose one.
    Also does not preclude moving out an Eberle and replacing him with a Chia type winger who would then take Eberles spot on the protected list.

    Easy Peasy Japensesy! Remember Lowtidians, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.

    I find I’m so excited that I can barely sit still or hold a thought in my head. I think it’s the excitement only an Oilers fan can feel. A fan at the start of a long journey whose conclusion is uncertain.

  79. Ducey says:

    LMHF#1:

    The antithesis of sport is punishing a team for its success by making it impossible to keep the players it procured and giving it lower draft picks.

    Some would argue that the antithesis of sport is not allowing teams to play on an even playing field.

  80. Richard S.S. says:

    The 4th Pick might be the Gold Standard of trade assets if a specific one of either PLD or MT is wanted. If not specifically either one is desired, then the # 5 Pick gains huge value.

    After the top 5 in the draft, there are 3 Defensemen and 2 Forwards available, after that five there are 3 Defensemen and 3 Forwards that will still give good value. Beyond that no one is saying much. Chiarelli should still do well.

  81. Cameron says:

    Lowetide,

    “Could Peter Chiarelli deal No. 4 and Darnell Nurse to the Calgary Flames for No. 6 and Dougie Hamilton? No.”

    #4 and Nurse wouldn’t get you Hamilton even if it was straight up.

    If I were the Oiler brass, I’d very seriously consider Chychrun at #4. No, he might not be the BPA (though I think there is a reasonable argument he could be), but because as a young cost-controlled Dman he is ‘the coin of the realm’. Of all the assets that teams have, the most fungible are cost-controlled young Dmen. If you have enough young D in the system you can trade them for any other commodity (only young cost-controlled C’s are anywhere near as valuable as trade chips).

    Teams like New Jersey and Nashville stockpile young D and then trade them to fill holes in scoring.

    Draft a Tkachuk or PLD (who is probably not an NHL C), and when the dust settles you’ll find less interest in them on the trade market than you would for a young toolsy defender picked at the same spot.

  82. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    LMHF#1: I would have preferred a luxury tax system as this allows for flexibility. The NHL thankfully hasn’t gone ‘full NFL’, but the Oilers with their current owner could certainly do better under another system. I really prefer what MLB is right now to the NHL, though it certainly isn’t perfect.

    I’m mostly thinking about the connection to an expansion draft and the comment LT made in the opener. There should be 10-1 games. There should be horrible hockey teams. It’s just part of the process. They should not punish the fans of long-suffering franchises by taking better players away than necessary to enhance their expansion experiment and leave us all with more mushy middle.

    I hope the intent behind the decisions that will be made isn’t to create more mush. I suspect it is. Mush is no good for fans of a team. Any team. Mush is fine for ‘NFL fans’ because it’s more about beer, wings, gambling and a day off than anything else.

    That ship has sailed so long ago with the loser point system. The entire NHL point structure is set up to reward mediocrity and playing for a tie. It’s asinine and has done more to erode the entertainment value of the game than anything else.

    Why do we have 3 point games?

    The illusion of parity. 5 point out with 10 games left is a virtual death sentence on the era of 3 point games. But it seems close. So teams hang in.

    Notice there are only about 3 or 4 teams out of it at the deadline each year, meaning there are far less sellers. Way less actual excitement, but the 11th place team in each conference 7 points out thinks it’s still in it. In reality it isn’t.

    None of this will change under Bettman or Daly. So there isn’t too much sense in getting worked up about it. Although Bruce will engage you any time.

    I agree with you, but reality is that battle was lost in 1994 and is not coming back.

  83. vinotintazo says:

    Cameron: If I were the Oiler brass, I’d very seriously consider Chychrun at #4. No, he might not be the BPA (though I think there is a reasonable argument he could be),

    nice try Treliving

    Nashville stockpile young D and then trade them to fill holes in scoring

    Only took them 18 years to pull the trade.

  84. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Cameron:
    Lowetide,

    “Could Peter Chiarelli deal No. 4 and Darnell Nurse to the Calgary Flames for No. 6 and Dougie Hamilton? No.”

    #4 and Nurse wouldn’t get you Hamilton even if it was straight up.

    Obvious troll attempt. If Treliving turned down 4 and Nurse for Hamilton he would be fired.

    You’d be adding Dubois or Tkachuk (maybe both) or Chychrun/Juolevi with Nurse

    Hamilton was had for 15th, 2nd and 3rd and basically is worth about that. He isn’t worth two top 10 picks all of a sudden.

  85. Lowetide says:

    Cameron: I agree. I looked at Chychrun six ways to Sunday in an effort to push him up, because he is the best fit (assuming he is what he is). We may look back on this draft as opportunity missed, but the young man did not make himself known to the point we can be sure. Scouts may feel differently, maybe the Oilers do draft him.

  86. jonrmcleod says:

    Cameron: #4 and Nurse wouldn’t get you Hamilton even if it was straight up.

    Are you sure about that? Calgary gave up much, much less to get him.

  87. Lowetide says:

    Cameron:
    Lowetide,

    “Could Peter Chiarelli deal No. 4 and Darnell Nurse to the Calgary Flames for No. 6 and Dougie Hamilton? No.”

    #4 and Nurse wouldn’t get you Hamilton even if it was straight up.

    I respectfully disagree.

  88. Fog of Warts says:

    hags9k: All this gnashing of teeth about L-R. If management and fans had just kept Petry.

    At that stage in a player’s career, you can only “keep” him if wants to stay. This requires the collaboration of management and fans. (“No,” I hear you say, “it’s the management’s job to slow-play or showcase the player so that the fans don’t become owlish in the first place.” Yes, of course. The customer is always right. Good thing management had a plan. “I know what we’ll do! We’ll draft so many coke machines that a few soft €€€s with mad skillz will skate completely under the redneck-wrath radar.”)

    ———

    Changing the subject by about 80%—give or take—I’d be thrilled to see Jultz become the Jultzinator (message to Justin: this will take more than one good performance in one very important game).

    CoH: Oilers are "damaged" but care needed not to do more harm, TSN’s McKenzie says

    It’s also true that Edmonton had little choice but to move Schultz as fans had turned against him to an ugly extent, with some using a derogatory nickname “Jultz.” … I get it that certain fans develop hate-ons for certain players. … But we all need to temper our disdain for this player or that player’s performance with the notion that we might have it wrong, in whole or in part. And even if we are right about a player needing to be axed, best not to make it nasty. We don’t need to scapegoat more players and “Jultz” them right out of town.

    Derogatory? Not if it’s short for “Jultzinator”. A couple of apples in OT, and we’ll have witnessed one of the fastest milk man phone booth makeovers in man-panties-on-top shine boxer history.

    (Wow, to think that show once passed for entertainment.)

    ———

    Underdog 1.0 usually caused a lot of collateral damage. Whenever someone complained about the damage, Underdog 1.0 replied:

    I am a hero who never fails;
    I cannot be bothered with such details.

    I take it you write your own lines, too?

    ———

    Underdog 2.0 desiderata:

    For to play with Crosby still
    Bleed I must on each molehill.

    Forced upon this battleground
    Faith in custom I have found,

    That to soothe a diaper rash
    Merely takes the right mustache.

    Now to earn my -in- plus -ator
    I surpass the ass in Gator.

    ———

    If things go well.

    The secret compartment of my ring I fill
    With a pecker upper pill
    So as dogged hero I fulfill
    My duty to the puppy mill.

    Hold on there, Hind Banana 3.0, I think you’re taking this make-over thing a little too far. In you win the damn thing, you can celebrate later, but try to keep it within bounds.

    ———

    I might have modified that last one slightly. The original went like this:

    The secret compartment of my ring I fill
    With an Underdog super energy pill

    Ugh. Even that version didn’t fly with the chil’ren.

    For many years starting with NBC’s last run in the mid 1970s, all references to Underdog swallowing his super energy pill were censored, most likely out of fear that kids would see medication that looked like the Underdog pills (red with a white “U”) and swallow them.

    Too late. We were already importing those skinny Italian bicycles.

  89. blainer says:

    Cameron:
    Lowetide,

    “Could Peter Chiarelli deal No. 4 and Darnell Nurse to the Calgary Flames for No. 6 and Dougie Hamilton? No.”

    #4 and Nurse wouldn’t get you Hamilton even if it was straight up.

    If I were the Oiler brass, I’d very seriously consider Chychrun at #4. No, he might not be the BPA (though I think there is a reasonable argument he could be), but because as a young cost-controlled Dman he is ‘the coin of the realm’. Of all the assets that teams have, the most fungible are cost-controlled young Dmen. If you have enough young D in the system you can trade them for any other commodity (only young cost-controlled C’s are anywhere near as valuable as trade chips).

    Teams like New Jersey and Nashville stockpile young D and then trade them to fill holes in scoring.

    Draft a Tkachuk or PLD (who is probably not an NHL C), and when the dust settles you’ll find less interest in them on the trade market than you would for a young toolsy defender picked at the same spot.

    Is that you Brian Burke..

    LOL… If the number 4 AND Nurse are traded it will be for PK or Faulk not DH..

    I know you come here from time to time and sometimes you actually post some good stuff but this is a DSF like comment IMO ..

  90. slopitch says:

    godot10: Tkachuk is exactly the type of forward the OIlers do NOT need.Lucic can skate.

    McDavid and Nugent-Hopkins, and even Draisaitl play fast, or should play fast.

    1) Im not sure I agree that Tkachuk cant skate
    2) This is taken from the hockeys future report on Lucic in 2006.

    Like many young players, Lucic will need to continue working on his skating, particularly his speed, which is one of the weakest areas for the 18-year-old. What’s promising is that Lucic improved tremendously in the space of a single season, a trend that, if it continues, could turn him into an effective checking line player for the Bruins.

    So even if Tkachuk has skating issues, so did Lucic.

  91. Fog of Warts says:

    It was trickier than my usual silliness threading Crosby Stills & Rash at 10 down, and then following up with the veiled “assassin” joke at 30 across. +1 to everyone who noticed both.

  92. Jethro Tull says:

    Fog of Warts: Crosby Stills & Rash

    Crosby, Stills, Rash & Jung.

  93. CrazyCoach says:

    Hey folks,

    LT, I was surprised when you said Las Vegas would take Kassian in the expansion drive.

    Why would you take a player with past (fingers crossed) addiction issues, into a city that thrives on excess and debauchery?

  94. LMHF#1 says:

    Ducey: Some would argue that the antithesis of sport is not allowing teams to play on an even playing field.

    What’s even? According to who?

    The franchises that have advantages were built into that – not born. Edmonton could have had a lot of those advantages if not for Pocklington’s shortsightedness. Not all of them, but many.

  95. LMHF#1 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:

    I agree with you, but reality is that battle was lost in 1994 and is not coming back.

    Yeah, and I’m not really worked up about that. Just sad every now and again.

  96. Lowetide says:

    CrazyCoach:
    Hey folks,

    LT, I was surprised when you said Las Vegas would take Kassian in the expansion drive.

    Why would you take a player with past (fingers crossed) addiction issues, into a city that thrives on excess and debauchery?

    I said ‘one of’ so want to walk that back a little. For me, I don’t think location matters, I have friends and relatives who have had issues with addictions in towns under 1,000.

  97. CrazyCoach says:

    Lowetide: I said ‘one of’ so want to walk that back a little. For me, I don’t think location matters, I have friends and relatives who have had issues with addictions in towns under 1,000.

    Very true.

    I’ve personally seen that monster up and close with some of my family.

    That’s why I hope Kassian’s happiest days are ahead of him.

  98. Cameron says:

    jonrmcleod: Are you sure about that? Calgary gave up much, much less to get him.

    No, not certain, but;

    – We (Flames fans) all pretty much think we fleeced Boston in the Hamilton deal (in other words he would be worth more than what we paid to get him)

    – He fits the ‘Burke prototype’, a 6’5″ offensive defender who can play big minutes in a variety of situations. Burke teams (Pronger, Phaneuf, etc) are noted for the aquisition of these guys as building blocks.

    – He signed a super reasonable deal to stay long term – boosting his value from where it was when he was aquired.

    – The Flames went out and signed Freddie Hamilton as an AHL depth guy, indicating, if nothing else, that they are looking at Hamilton as a long term investment for the team.

    – I know you guys are all high on Nurse, but he looks like a 2nd pairing defensive defender to me, and while he is tradeable, absent an uptick in offense IMO he wouldn’t be enough alone to land a top 10 pick this year (would you trade a Chychrun for Nurse? Sergaychev? Juolevi? I wouldn’t).

    – There is nobody at #4 who moves the needle significantly more than the guy at #6. I don’t see Cgy blowing their brains out for Tkachuk at #4, when a PLD or Chychrun will be there at 6. (if the pick was #3, you might have something as Puljujarvi is exactly what the Dr ordered needs wise for the Flames).

    So, yeah, I respectfully disagree that Cgy would even consider moving Hamilton for #4 and Nurse.

  99. Ducey says:

    LMHF#1: What’s even? According to who?

    The franchises that have advantages were built into that – not born. Edmonton could have had a lot of those advantages if not for Pocklington’s shortsightedness. Not all of them, but many.

    I am not going to derail the discussion by going off on this, but suffice it to say that I fundamentally disagree with you on this.

    MLB is an embarrassment. Some teams spend $200 M. Others spend $30 M. And that’s just on the field. Until recently, the Yankees could outspend other teams on draft picks and international signings.

    If it were not for shared revenue, giving the best picks to the bottom feeders, and some loose type of cap, MLB would be about 8 – 10 teams.

  100. Lowetide says:

    CrazyCoach: Very true.

    I’ve personally seen that monster up and close with some of my family.

    That’s why I hope Kassian’s happiest days are ahead ofhim.

    Yes, it is no fun at all. My Dad’s father was an alcoholic, so my Dad would not allow any alcohol in the house. NOT a good idea (kids search out what they are forbidden to do) but I understood his point when seeing things as I grew older.

  101. Ducey says:

    Cameron: So, yeah, I respectfully disagree that Cgy would even consider moving Hamilton for #4 and Nurse.

    I don’t think “consider” means what you think it means.

  102. Fog of Warts says:

    My plan more than penchant, I’m checking out of checking out until draft day. Back to project mode. Everyone’s scroll bars can take a well-deserved June break.

  103. Lowetide says:

    Fog of Warts:
    My plan more than penchant, I’m checking out of checking out until draft day.Back to project mode.Everyone’s scroll bars can take a well-deserved June break.

    Be well, Fog.

  104. Chachi says:

    Cameron: No, not certain, but;

    – We (Flames fans) all pretty much think we fleeced Boston in the Hamilton deal (in other words he would be worth more than what we paid to get him)

    – He fits the ‘Burke prototype’, a 6’5″ offensive defender who can play big minutes in a variety of situations. Burke teams (Pronger, Phaneuf, etc) are noted for the aquisition of these guys as building blocks.

    – The Flames went out and signed Freddie Hamilton as an AHL depth guy, indicating, if nothing else, that they are looking at Hamilton as a long term investment for the team.

    So, yeah, I respectfully disagree that Cgy would even consider moving Hamilton for #4 and Nurse.

    Hamilton has the size that Burke likes, but his “truculence” rates about equal to a golden retriever puppy. Personally I like it when a d-man takes care of business by using finesse to get the puck off of the other team and quickly moves it up ice, but Brian Burke likes guys who are just as likely to put other teams’ players through the boards. I could see him moving Hamilton if the right deal came along.

    As for signing Freddie Hamilton, it makes me happy that the Flames would devote ice time that could otherwise go to the development of actual prospects to Dougie’s brother just to keep Dougie happy. I guess the flip side to that is that if the Flames decide not to keep Freddie on or if Freddie isn’t happy with how he is being handled on the farm what will that do to Dougie’s relationship with the team? Better keep Freddie happy I guess….

  105. LMHF#1 says:

    Ducey:
    MLB is an embarrassment. Some teams spend $200 M. Others spend $30 M. And that’s just on the field.

    An “embarrassment” that raked in over $9 B USD last year and has winners from both the big dogs and former dregs?

    That’s my kind of embarrassment. I’ll leave it there.

  106. Pajamah says:

    Cameron: No, not certain, but;

    – We (Flames fans) all pretty much think we fleeced Boston in the Hamilton deal (in other words he would be worth more than what we paid to get him)

    – He fits the ‘Burke prototype’, a 6’5″ offensive defender who can play big minutes in a variety of situations. Burke teams (Pronger, Phaneuf, etc) are noted for the aquisition of these guys as building blocks.

    – He signed a super reasonable deal to stay long term – boosting his value from where it was when he was aquired.

    – The Flames went out and signed Freddie Hamilton as an AHL depth guy, indicating, if nothing else, that they are looking at Hamilton as a long term investment for the team.

    – I know you guys are all high on Nurse, but he looks like a 2nd pairing defensive defender to me, and while he is tradeable, absent an uptick in offense IMO he wouldn’t be enough alone to land a top 10 pick this year (would you trade a Chychrun for Nurse? Sergaychev? Juolevi? I wouldn’t).

    – There is nobody at #4 who moves the needle significantly more than the guy at #6. I don’t see Cgy blowing their brains out for Tkachuk at #4, when a PLD or Chychrun will be there at 6. (if the pick was #3, you might have something as Puljujarvi is exactly what the Dr ordered needs wise for the Flames).

    So, yeah, I respectfully disagree that Cgy would even consider moving Hamilton for #4 and Nurse.

    You know when you pass someone on the street, and they glare at you?

    Could be that they are an asshole

    Know when you pass people on the street, and they all glare at you?

    More likely, you’re the asshole

    Notice how everyone thinks you are off your rocker saying Calgary won’t accept 4 and Nurse for 6 and Hamilton?

  107. Cameron says:

    Ducey: I don’t think “consider” means what you think it means.

    Just so I’m clear, Calgary beats Edm to the punch in landing a 22 yr old refrigerator sized RH Dman who has both offense and possession stats to drool for, and you think Flames brass would now ‘consider’ sending him to Edmonton for a LH guy at the same position who has neither offense nor possession stats, and a ‘magic bean’ winger pick at the draft?

    Treliving would be hung by his thumbs in front of the Saddledome.

    A couple of years back Feaster did a magnificent job (I’m willing to fight about this Rex) restocking the farm system after Sutter had torched it to the ground chasing Ollie Jokinen (twice!).

    At the time, I said that Calgary badly needed to make a home-run trade, one where we fleeced someone else (instead of how it used to work – see: Leeman, Gary or, the return on Neon Dion Phaneuf, which was essentially just Matt Stajan). Then Feaster got let go, and Treliving comes along and immediately lands Hamilton in a blockbuster, putting his stamp on the club.

    I see the Oilers in the same boat. They need a home-run trade in the worst way. But there is no chance as far as I can see that Calgary would turn around and undue Treliving’s big deal for prospects and picks to make that happen for Edmonton.

  108. Cameron says:

    Pajamah: You know when you pass someone on the street, and they glare at you?

    Could be that they are an asshole

    Know when you pass people on the street, and they all glare at you?

    More likely, you’re the asshole

    Notice how everyone thinks you are off your rocker saying Calgary won’t accept 4 and Nurse for 6 and Hamilton?

    Oh believe me, I’m made very aware of how popular my opinions are.

    But at least I get to be called an asshole (though really, isn’t killjoy more appropriate?) by Oiler fans I (mostly) like.

  109. Cameron says:

    Chachi: Hamilton has the size that Burke likes, but his “truculence” rates about equal to a golden retriever puppy. Personally I like it when a d-man takes care of business by using finesse to get the puck off of the other team and quickly moves it up ice, but Brian Burke likes guys who are just as likely to put other teams’ players through the boards. I could see him moving Hamilton if the right deal came along.

    As for signing Freddie Hamilton, it makes me happy that the Flames would devote ice time that could otherwise go to the development of actual prospects to Dougie’s brother just to keep Dougie happy. I guess the flip side to that is that if the Flames decide not to keep Freddie on or if Freddie isn’t happy with how he is being handled on the farm what will that do to Dougie’s relationship with the team? Better keep Freddie happy I guess….

    Burke also has a thing for skill (Kessel, Niedermayer, etc), and Hamilton has tonnes of it.

    You have a solid point about Freddie though.

  110. Jethro Tull says:

    Cameron: #4 and Nurse wouldn’t get you Hamilton even if it was straight up.

    Cameron: Treliving would be hung by his thumbs in front of the Saddledome.

    Straight up, that’s a trade Treliving makes ten times out of ten. To say otherwise is just trolling. Hammy and the 6th for Nurse and the 4th? That’s a trade Chia makes 10 times out of ten.

    We’ll just agree that Hammy for Korpikoski is probably about right. 😉

  111. Cameron says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Straight up, that’s a trade Treliving makes ten times out of ten.To say otherwise is just trolling.Hammy and the 6th for Nurse and the 4th?That’s a trade Chia makes 10 times out of ten.

    We’ll just agree that Hammy for Korpikoski is probably about right.

    Let me put this a different way;

    Why on Earth does Calgary make this trade? The guys 4-6 are all roughly even in terms of where they slot (PLD, MT and say Chychrun, though Brown, and Nylander are in the mix as well), and Calgary will already get one of them at 6. So why deal a stud defender like Hamilton just to move up two spots and select a guy you might get at 6 anyway?

    If Calgary were to move a Dman for stuff at the draft it would almost certainly be Giordano (big $s, approaching the downside of his career), or (even more likely) Wideman, but not Hamilton.

  112. blainer says:

    Cameron: Oh believe me, I’m made very aware of how popular my opinions are.

    But at least I get to be called an asshole (though really, isn’t killjoy more appropriate?) by Oiler fans I (mostly) like.

    There is NO way I and I’m sure Chia would ever even consider trading Nurse to the Flames. Nurse would instantly become Regher and put a lot of Oilers on the DL. I would much rather we keep him and let him do that to the Flames lineup So this kind of trade is just crazy talk.

    I really don’t think you understand the value of the #4 pick. Brian Burke was recently quoted saying .. Draft picks will have immense value this year more than ever… I actually agree with BB on this one. Expansion AND the flat cap make draft picks golden this year.. even more so in the top 4.

    I honestly believe the Oil would get a much better D than DH with that offer. But I will say the Flames did get great value last year. Surprisingly while living in Boston last year and talking to a lot of their fans most were not upset about the trade and were also happy with the return.

  113. Jethro Tull says:

    Cameron: Let me put this a different way;

    Why on Earth does Calgary make this trade? The guys 4-6 are all roughly even in terms of where they slot (PLD, MT and say Chychrun, though Brown, and Nylander are in the mix as well), and Calgary will already get one of them at 6. So why deal a stud defender like Hamilton just to move up two spots and select a guy you might get at 6 anyway?

    If Calgary were to move a Dman for stuff at the draft it would almost certainly be Giordano (big $s, approaching the downside of his career), or (even more likely) Wideman, but not Hamilton.

    Sounds like Calgary fans are already planning the parade….

  114. Pajamah says:

    Cameron: Oh believe me, I’m made very aware of how popular my opinions are.

    But at least I get to be called an asshole (though really, isn’t killjoy more appropriate?) by Oiler fans I (mostly) like.

    I wouldn’t say you’re either. I just think your opinion is wrong in this instance as opposed to unpopular. I get that its an uphill battle as a Flames fan, trying to convince Oiler fan of anything, but there is a very bright group of commenters here, including our benevolent host. Regardless of statistical value, things generally have to pass the smell test to get discussed fairly, and if people are quick to jump on something as nonsense, it truly is quite telling.

    I’m not saying Treliving does it, he does consider it though. Nurse has higher upside, though Hamilton is proven, and very good. Its an even deal if Calgary wants Tkachuk or Dubois.

  115. Chachi says:

    Cameron: Burke also has a thing for skill (Kessel, Niedermayer, etc), and Hamilton has tonnes of it.

    I agree, but depending on how long the cap stays flat and on how much of the cap the Flames need to tie up to sign Gaudreau and Monahan they may have no choice but to trade one of their top 3 defencemen.

  116. russ99 says:

    I’d go with the 8 skaters and one goalie, and protect 4 D, assuming 1-2 of those D we’re acquiring this summer.

    Seems to me that keeping the Hall forward cluster together, while the reasons are understandable, is untenable.

    Besides the expansion draft, we’ll need to lose at least one of those $6M contracts when McDavid’s (and Nurse’s) ELC ends the summer after the expansion draft, plus we’ll have to pay Draisaitl next summer, so why not be proactive now to close a major hole?

    Teams that win often have to make the tough choices and get them right, so after 10 years of front office ineptitude, some of which on a Harold Ballard level, its time for this new brass to prove themselves.

  117. Cameron says:

    Chachi: I agree, but depending on how long the cap stays flat and on how much of the cap the Flames need to tie up to sign Gaudreau and Monahan they may have no choice but to trade one of their top 3 defencemen.

    You may be right, but moving Wideman for anything solves Cgy’s cap issues.

  118. Woodguy says:

    Fog of Warts:
    My plan more than penchant, I’m checking out of checking out until draft day.Back to project mode.Everyone’s scroll bars can take a well-deserved June break.

    I look forward to you waking again sir.

  119. LoDog says:

    What’s the point of Dougie Hamilton trade scenarios? Calgary is not trading him and sure as hell not to Edmonton.

  120. blainer says:

    LoDog:
    What’s the point of Dougie Hamilton trade scenarios? Calgary is not trading him and sure as hell not to Edmonton.

    Agreed. And sure as hell Edmonton is not trading Nurse to Calgary ..

  121. Professor Q says:

    Fog of Warts:
    It was trickier than my usual silliness threading Crosby Stills & Rash at 10 down, and then following up with the veiled “assassin” joke at 30 across.+1 to everyone who noticed both.

    It’s okay. People rarely get my wordplay either.

    I’m not sure anyone caught the “nashing” of teeth…

  122. Oilspill says:

    Watched Ceci a fair amount. He’s better than Reinhart. Right shot. Average second pairing guy who was stuck with Wiercioch who’s likely off to the KHL. Wiercioch had good fancies but carried by the 4 other guys. Too slow too soft. Ceci plays hard. His fancies are certainly affected by his team mates as they always are.

    zatch:
    Younger Oil,

    This is not good. I’m not sold Ceci is any better than Reinhart (I believe his fancystats are poor, as he is by eye) and Yakupov to Lazar is not nearly enough of an upgrade for me to move from 4th to 12th.

    Ottawa as a team and city/media massively overate local boys. The Ottawa Sun actually included Ceci in their list of Team Canada WC snubs.

  123. Chris says:

    LT,

    Have you considered Jacob Trouba for the second pairing right defense slot? Everything out of Winnipeg suggests he is looking for a substantial raise, they have Buff and Myers on the right side already and Winnipeg has an internal cap. To me he seems more likely to rationally be available than Barrie. I’m not saying I don’t like Barrie just that surely Sakic and Roy are not so stupid as to weaken a thoroughly mediocre defense? Vataanen and Trouba seem like players you could reasonably expect to be moved.

  124. haters says:

    Not one word on Belanger from what I’ve seen. Impressive, I’m quite proud of everyone here. Losing can bring out the worst in people and I’m sure the locker room hasn’t been the most pleasant place. That said Belanger should keep his whore mouth shout 🙂
    Homeboy couldn’t even land a gig in Europe.

    I hope DeBrincat falls to 2nd round. He might be the most underrated player ever.

  125. who says:

    Chris:
    LT,

    Have you considered Jacob Trouba for the second pairing right defense slot? Everything out of Winnipeg suggests he is looking for a substantial raise, they have Buff and Myers on the right side already and Winnipeg has an internal cap. To me he seems more likely to rationally be available than Barrie. I’m not saying I don’t like Barrie just that surely Sakic and Roy are not so stupid as to weaken a thoroughly mediocre defense? Vataanen and Trouba seem like players you could reasonably expect to be moved.

    This
    Wouldn’t be surprised to see a trade for Trouba using Davidson or Nurse. Trouble with trading Nurse is we would have to get a quality, expansion exempt, asset back.
    My suggestion would be Hall and Nurse for Trouba and Laine.
    I know everyone is going to slam this idea but I kind of wonder if Winnipeg would even agree to it. If you can get past the Hall love on this blog we would be getting a great young righty winger in Laine plus a righty dman who could end up being a top pairing guy in 2 or 3 years. Winnipeg gets a future top four lefty dman and a first line all star left winger. I think Laine is worth the price.
    If that doesn’t work I would just offer Davidson for Trouba straight up.

  126. Lowetide says:

    Chris:
    LT,

    Have you considered Jacob Trouba for the second pairing right defense slot? Everything out of Winnipeg suggests he is looking for a substantial raise, they have Buff and Myers on the right side already and Winnipeg has an internal cap. To me he seems more likely to rationally be available than Barrie. I’m not saying I don’t like Barrie just that surely Sakic and Roy are not so stupid as to weaken a thoroughly mediocre defense? Vataanen and Trouba seem like players you could reasonably expect to be moved.

    I don’t know about Trouba. He started like fire but has faded some since his rookie season.

  127. BONVIE says:

    Chris:
    LT,

    Have you considered Jacob Trouba for the second pairing right defense slot? Everything out of Winnipeg suggests he is looking for a substantial raise, they have Buff and Myers on the right side already and Winnipeg has an internal cap. To me he seems more likely to rationally be available than Barrie. I’m not saying I don’t like Barrie just that surely Sakic and Roy are not so stupid as to weaken a thoroughly mediocre defense? Vataanen and Trouba seem like players you could reasonably expect to be moved.

    Yep, Winnipeg seems like an obvious trade partner to me as well, I think Myers as the veteran seems like the more likely play but Trouba has a lot of appeal just lacks the experience. Edmonton needs a player with a right hand shot that can control the game, and play against top competition. Myers seems to be a perfect fit for the Western Coference. Myers is getting surgery for a knee and hip right now but was playing through it during the season, and from all reports was supposed to be ready to start the season.

  128. Chris says:

    who,

    I wouldn’t trade Hall for Laine. If we trade for Trouba one would think we are sending a young cheap defenseman back. Perhaps Reinhart and a second or Yakupov would get it done.

  129. Centre of attention says:

    Chris,

    I think you seriously underestimate how silly Roy & Sakic are. Just look how they have handled the center position over the last few years. Should of kept Stastny, didn’t get enough for O’Reilly, and now they are thinking about trading Duchene.

    Something is seriously addled with that organization and their play on the ice reflects it.

  130. who says:

    Chris:
    who,

    I wouldn’t trade Hall for Laine. If we trade for Trouba one would think we are sending a young cheap defenseman back. Perhaps Reinhart and a second or Yakupov would get it done.

    So you don’t see Laine being as good as, or even better than, Hall in 2 or 3 years. I don’t think Winnipeg would take Reinhart plus for Trouba but if they did I would do that deal in a second.

    Lowetide: I don’t know about Trouba. He started like fire but has faded some since his rookie season.

    Lowetide: I don’t know about Trouba. He started like fire but has faded some since his rookie season.

    He kind of has the same career path as Myers if you look at it. Great first year and then a turn down for the next two. Myers has been much better since he got to Winnipeg, maybe Trouba will do the same.
    For the record I would prefer Myers but don’t think Winnipeg lets him go. Also those surgeries scare me a little.

  131. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Centre of attention:
    Chris,

    I think you seriously underestimate how silly Roy & Sakic are. Just look how they have handled the center position over the last few years. Should of kept Stastny, didn’t get enough for O’Reilly, and now they are thinking about trading Duchene.

    Something is seriously addled with that organization and their play on the ice reflects it.

    Agree on the “Colorada is a hot mess” front, however,

    Stastny got a long term $6 million deal from Colorado, and was completely and totally underwhelming for the bulk of that contract, until his contract year when everyone fell in love with him again. He then went out and got $7 million/year on a long term deal, and immediately started thoroughly underwhelming fans of his new team.

    I’m not sure paying Stastny $7million (or more) was a great idea. They were smart to pass on that one.

    How they are treating Duchesne and Barrie is, however, full blown bat shit crazy.

  132. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    who: This

    If that doesn’t work I would just offer Davidson for Trouba straight up.

    Stop trading Davidson. Just stop it. Seriously.

  133. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: Yeah, I seem to remember Woodguy didn’t like him. I think he will be moving though, and Chia likely will be in on him.

    I like Shattenkirk.

    All the hubbub is he will sign long term on the East coast so a western team won’t be able to sign him long term.

    Who knows?

    I like him though. He’s not a top end 5v5 scorer and that’s what I was refuting at the time so that’s what you are probably remembering.

  134. Woodguy says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Woodguy,

    Sorry for the wall of text.

    A while back I read/heard somewhere that Oilers had been linked to Dennis Wideman. First reaction was “get real”. But then askedmyself the question Why? And put together a small piece of inductive reasoning.

    Assuming Expansion Draft happening 2017 and Oilers in Win Now mode
    Premise: Oilers will trade for a #1 D if they can. Justin Faulk type.A (preferably RHD) minute muncher who can QB a PP and push everyone down one slot. They attempt to do this because they have the trifecta…the perfect storm of …1)collateral (Nuge Ebbs 4OV Nurse)…2)Capspace…and 3)Cap pressure on other teams. (an interesting study of pressure and time)

    However, a trade the magnitude of this one can just up and vanish like a fart in the wind.

    So Contingency:they aquire a Jason Demers type. (namely Jason Demers).
    Under this scenario you still lack a PP quarter back and whoever you add (Vatenen/Barrie) will either have to be left unprotected or cause Brandon Davidson ( Homegrown Value Contract) to be left unprotected.

    Possible solution:RHD Dennis Wideman1 year left on a 5.5 million per year contract. Calgary would be happy to shed the cap space so cost to us might be minimal (draft picks). Assuming we already have a Demers type, we get through this year with

    Klefbom Demers
    SekeraFayne
    Davidson Wideman
    Etc

    Next year we protect 4-4-1
    HallNuge Draisaitl Eberle
    KlefDemers Sekera Davidson

    Bonus A: We can keep our 2016 4OV who (assuming another year in CHL) will be on entry level contract for 17-18 18-19 and 19-20
    Bonus B: Chia gets to see McDavid’s team (with the 3 Steve Austins intact) healthy and together for a full year (gords willing)
    Bonus C: Wideman contract expired

    Left unprotected in either scenario is Pouliot, Maroon and other 2016 adds ( Shaw/Brouwer or whoever) Can only loose one.
    Also does not preclude moving out an Eberle and replacing him with a Chia type winger who would then take Eberles spot on the protected list.

    Easy Peasy Japensesy! Remember Lowtidians, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.

    I find I’m so excited that I can barely sit still or hold a thought in my head. I think it’s the excitement only an Oilers fan can feel. A fan at the start of a long journey whose conclusion is uncertain.

    That’s a reasonable scenario.

    Wideman is one of the worst in the NHL for Shot Against Relative to team and is basically a turnstile now so you are giving up a lot defensively and can’t play him up the roster.

    If CAL takes Korpse back for him (bad contract for bad contract) it might work out.

    That expansion draft is a real bitchkitty in regards to fixing the D because I don’t want to lose Davidson.

  135. Lowetide says:

    They won’t lose Davidson. Expansion drafts are full of pre-draft trades. I wager they are more likely to lose a goalie than a defenseman.

  136. Woodguy says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    square_wheels,

    Nill is smart enough to trade for someone we had no idea was even available. I do believe that. He has pumped and dumped Chiasson nicely, turning him into Spezza. He will likely find a way to pump and dump Hemsky or Eakin for a good defender should he lose one of Goligoski or Demers.

    Eakin was playing 1C a lot this year with Benn and Seguin on his wings.

    I highly doubt he goes out for a Dman.

    Stars are going to count on guys like Nemeth, Johns, Honka (whom I love) and Lindell (whom I like)

  137. Centre of attention says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: Agree on the “Colorada is a hot mess” front, however,

    Stastny got a long term $6 million deal from Colorado, and was completely and totally underwhelming for the bulk of that contract, until his contract year when everyone fell in love with him again.He then went out and got $7 million/year on a long term deal, and immediately started thoroughly underwhelming fans of his new team.

    I’m not sure paying Stastny $7million (or more) was a great idea.They were smart to pass on that one.

    How they are treating Duchesne and Barrie is, however, full blown bat shit crazy.

    Agree on Stastny being overpaid but if they weren’t planning on keeping O’Reilly they needed SOMEBODY. I guess they ended up drafting Mackinnon and that’s great but they needed to play that whole situation better.

    If they let Stastny walk, they needed to get O’Reilly done. Or at least find a suitable replacement for O’Reilly. They did neither and now they are thinking trading Duchene, Lordy.

    Anyways I think the Avalanche are vulnerable this summer and I would love Barrie on this team. I don’t know about the cost though.

  138. Chris says:

    Centre of attention,

    Perhaps I am giving Sakic and Roy too much credit. However, I generally don’t think one ought to plan as though your opponents are going to be irrational and self defeating. I mean yea I hope Chiarelli makes the call if they really do want to dump their second best defenseman for no good reason. I just have trouble viewing this as a likely scenario.

    who,

    Hall is an all star now on a good contract. Laine may be that years down the road. I’d like to see the perpetual rebuild end and the team make the playoffs so trading all stars for maybes isn’t on the table for me.

  139. Chachi says:

    Cameron: You may be right, but moving Wideman for anything solves Cgy’s cap issues.

    Anything including an equally bad contract?

  140. Woodguy says:

    square_wheels:
    Younger Oil,

    if Chia landed that in a trade – give him the keys to Katz’s kingdom.

    Ceci is a gem, thought he was arguably the fastest D skater I’d seen in a while – I think he’s close to being an impact D and he’s just finished his draft +5 season.

    WG/Gmoney – where does Ceci rank ?

    I missed Ceci in my RHDman thing.

    I blame Gmoney RH list that I was working off (even if Ceci was on it)

  141. Woodguy says:

    Jethro Tull:
    If we sign Jason Demers @ 6M x 6yrs, then I don’t think we have to worry about protecting him, unless he suddenly becomes Shea Weber before the expansion.

    Expansion teams need good players have to get to the cap floor too.

  142. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Dennis Wideman gets brought up all the time around here, but I haven’t heard a peep about James Wisniewski.

    Why is that?

    To me they are very similar players with bad contracts, though one concusses referees with hits from behind while the other makes sexual gestures toward Sean Avery.

    Pick your poison.

  143. rogue says:

    Maybe Chia sees Laine as McDavids ideal winger? Does he attempt to trade up, instead of down? Would the Jets even be interested?

  144. haters says:

    who,

    Trade Laine for Hall? You seen him in one tourney that’s on an ice surface bigger than Nhl, different game style ect …

    That’s just silly. Hall is coming into his prime .. Let’s trade him for someone who might dominate or just turn out ok.

    Another example of Oiler fans looking for that new shiny 18 year old toy..
    If we trade Hall and I don’t advocate we do, it should be for bonafide talent. Jmo.

  145. The Hermit says:

    Woodguy: Jethro Tull:
    If we sign Jason Demers @ 6M x 6yrs, then I don’t think we have to worry about protecting him, unless he suddenly becomes Shea Weber before the expansion

    Most likely Demers contract will have a full NMC.

  146. speeds says:

    Woodguy: Expansion teams need good players have to get to the cap floor too.

    But why not select for value in the exp draft and just overpay via UFA, where they can control the term? Are players on July 7th without contracts going to be THAT opposed to a short term overpay where they get to play in Vegas?

  147. Woodguy says:

    Centre of attention:
    Chris,

    I think you seriously underestimate how silly Roy & Sakic are. Just look how they have handled the center position over the last few years. Should of kept Stastny, didn’t get enough for O’Reilly, and now they are thinking about trading Duchene.

    Something is seriously addled with that organization and their play on the ice reflects it.

    COL offered Stastny 7MM but he couldn’t get out of there fast enough.

    By the time they realize Roy needs to go they will have pissed away years of these players:

    O’Reilly, Landeskog, Duchene, McKinnon, Barrie, Johnson, and Varlamov.

    You *never* read about the COL tire fire in the MSM.

    Never.

    The MSM gave Roy the Jack Adams.

  148. Woodguy says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Dennis Wideman gets brought up all the time around here, but I haven’t heard a peep about James Wisniewski.

    Why is that?

    To me they are very similar players with bad contracts, though one concusses referees with hits from behind while the other makes sexual gestures toward Sean Avery.

    Pick your poison.

    I’ve brought up Wiz.

    Wideman can’t hold Wiz’s jock.

  149. Woodguy says:

    speeds: But why not select for value in the exp draft and just overpay via UFA, where they can control the term?Are players on July 7th without contracts going to be THAT opposed to a short term overpay where they get to play in Vegas?

    That post has a lot of assumptions in it, including FA’s wOrth serious money being willing to sign with an expansion team.

  150. speeds says:

    Woodguy: That post has a lot of assumptions in it, including FA’s wOrth serious money being willing to sign with an expansion team.

    Why do you get to assume that the expansion GM is going to jump around like he has ants in his pants and grab overpaid players in the expansion draft out of fear that he can’t overpay any UFA to reach even the cap floor, even before UFA starts, while I can’t assume he won’t do that?

  151. Woodguy says:

    speeds: Why do you get to assume that the expansion GM is going to jump around like he has ants in his pants and grab overpaid players in the expansion draft out of fear that he can’t overpay any UFA to reach even the cap floor, even before UFA starts, while I can’t assume he won’t do that?

    I didn’t say that at all Mike

  152. who says:

    haters:
    who,

    Trade Laine for Hall? You seen him in one tourney that’s on an ice surface bigger than Nhl, different game style ect …

    That’s just silly. Hall is coming into his prime .. Let’s trade him for someone who might dominate or just turn out ok.

    Another example of Oiler fans looking for that new shiny 18 year old toy..
    If we trade Hall and I don’t advocate we do, it should be for bonafide talent. Jmo.

    Actually I’ve seen him in two tournaments and he impressed me in every game I watched. I saw Hall in the second tourney as well and I believe Laine outplayed him.
    I think Laine is NHL ready now. What’s not to like. Big body who has good hands, NHL speed and can really shoot the puck and plays with a physical edge. I’ll bet he is good from the get go and better than Hall in 2 to 3 years. That’s why I’m willing to make the trade. No guts, no glory.
    The truth is I believe Winnipeg says no to this trade proposal if it gets made so I don’t see it happening. Try taking off your Hall covered glasses and look at this trade from the other teams perspective. Hall is a very good player but it is dangerous to get too attached to anyone.

  153. speeds says:

    Woodguy: I didn’t say that at all Mike

    No, I’m having a bit of fun with hyperbole.

    That said, I’m still not convinced an expansion GM won’t just think to himself “Hey, if team X is leaving this overpaid player available in the expansion draft, it’s not unreasonable to see if he’ll trade me that player with a sweetener to get rid of him a day or two after the expansion draft. And if that fails, I’ll just overpay a UFA or two, surely a few wouldn’t mind playing in Vegas.”

  154. Woodguy says:

    speeds: No, I’m having a bit of fun with hyperbole.

    That said, I’m still not convinced an expansion GM won’t just think to himself “Hey, if team X is leaving this overpaid player available in the expansion draft, it’s not unreasonable to see if he’ll trade me that player with a sweetener to get rid of him a day or two after the expansion draft.And if that fails, I’ll just overpay a UFA or two, surely a few wouldn’t mind playing in Vegas.”

    Two things:

    1) I get accused of saying things I never said in the comment sections of this blog a lot so its a sore point with me. Straw men fly more frequently than my salesmen.

    2) “Hey, if team X is leaving this overpaid player available in the expansion draft, it’s not unreasonable to see if he’ll trade me that player with a sweetener to get rid of him a day or two after the expansion draft.And if that fails, I’ll just overpay a UFA or two, surely a few wouldn’t mind playing in Vegas.

    -I’m not sure “overpaying a UFA or two” gets a team to the floor. Floor is $52.8MM and most big tickets have NMC protection.

    -Vegas’ lack state tax helps to attract players but I can’t see many players who are worth $4MM on the open market (as an example) signing for $5MM in Vegas because once a player gets to that stage of their career they’ve usually made a lot of money and the salary is about 3rd or 4th on the boxes to check off on their preferred destination.

    There will be some, but its my posit that there will not be many with a ticket over $4MM, those guys will sign somewhere else.

  155. speeds says:

    Woodguy,

    Floor might be 52.8 but there will be guys making 3 or 4 M exposed that are reasonable pickups without long term, and without having to add a player with a 6M per for 5yr deal like the hypothetical Demers discussed.

    They can sign college UFA’s to rookie max deals with lots of roster room and opportunity for ice time, they can keep their 2017 1st with max bonuses if worst comes to worst and they need to hit the initial floor. They can likely do all kinds of things without having to worry about reaching the floor via the expansion draft, but maybe I’ll think differently once the actual rules are released and we see the actual players available.

  156. Woodguy says:

    speeds,

    Floor might be 52.8 but there will be guys making 3 or 4 M exposed that are reasonable pickups without long term, and without having to add a player with a 6M per for 5yr deal like the hypothetical Demers discussed.

    Demers is probably more value at $6MM than many players at $3MM.

    Why do you assume otherwise?

  157. speeds says:

    Woodguy:
    speeds,

    Floor might be 52.8 but there will be guys making 3 or 4 M exposed that are reasonable pickups without long term, and without having to add a player with a 6M per for 5yr deal like the hypothetical Demers discussed.

    Demers is probably more value at $6MM than many players at $3MM.

    Why do you assume otherwise?

    I’m not sure if I do, depends on the GM. He may well provide more value than a number of available players making less, but the new GM may not want that kind of term if he has other options with less term.

    Or he might think Demers valuable and be happy to pick him up at that hypothetical price.

  158. highgloveside says:

    LT,

    You stated Matt Filipeis a dman, his is a C/LW, 6’2″ 203 lbs 19G, 17A – 36 pts 99 PIMS in 56 games. Has a mean streak and could be a real nise 3rd liner with natiness and some offence.

  159. Chris says:

    who,

    I don’t think I am wearing any kind of tinted glasses in saying I prefer Taylor Hall to a guy who has played 0 NHL games. Hall has proven he can deliver at a very high level. You think maybe in 3 years Laine may cover that bet. This more or less says the Oilers would be likely be worse for the next two or three years with no assurance of an improvement long term.

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