IS THE GAME AFOOT?

by Lowetide

You could barely turn your transistor radio down the dial today without hearing about the coming trade boom. Of course, we do not gather our info via the transistor anymore, it comes via the car radio, internet radio, twitter and other. A few quick hits, I reserve the right to go into more detail tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/738059286450954241

This is excellent news, and in fact that ransom may be paid in 2018—not next season. As I wrote at ON on May 21, Renaud Lavoie reported on an NHLPA grievance that pushed (and won) the right to move those payment picks back to 2018. That effectively means Edmonton can choose in this year’s second round, offer sheet the hell out of the NHL, and still not have to pay until 2018. It sounds like a Brick commercial, but is really good news for Peter Chiarelli should he decide to get very bold. My thanks to PunjabiOil for pointing out the Lavoie story.

BOB MCKENZIE

  • TSN690 Montreal: The Edmonton Oilers feel the need to make some significant change. I think the Colorado Avalanche are very interested in going out and finding a defenseman. Anaheim is a team with a huge number of question marks in terms of personnel decisions that need to be made. Are they going to trade a goaltender. Is it going to be Andersen. Is it going to be Gibson. Are they going to be able to sign both Lindholm and Vatanen on the blueline, or are they going to trade one of those guys. Source

I think that is fair, Oilers are clearly not going to slide through summer without change. I know many are worried about the expansion draft, but remember some of the players we believe are going to be protected are going to be dealt. If the Oilers trade down from No. 4, they are unlikely to go too deep, because the quality drops off after about No. 12—and the expansion draft changes everything.

If there is an expansion draft, I think someone from the $6 million group is going. The last chance Texaco now is the value of Matt Tkachuk—mentioned in Elliotte Friedman’s 30 Thoughts—which may increase enough to get something done. I will explore this notion further tomorrow.

ARBITRATION OPPORTUNITIES

I think we could see the Nuge, Mark Fayne and Nail Yakupov dealt in the next month or so, and one area we haven’t spent a lot of time (in terms of possible value) is the arbitration list. Cap Friendly has a dandy guide here, and I will back track on this in the coming days.

No surprise here, Bouchard (as has been the case with a few draft picks since 2010) did not perform well enough to earn a pro contract. We wish him well.

 

 

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pts2pndr

I think we are all overthinking the whole trade /draft scenario Jacubs razor (sp) .Virtanen for Pouliot plus, Yakupov plus for Severson. Draft Dubois/ Tkachuck sign best available UFA goalie .All the rest is basically see what is offered! Oilers will be in on Demers etc. It will be a case of what’ is available. There is no player that has been mentioned on this board worth going backward 2 years to go forward. It is after all a TEAM game. This next few weeks shud be very interesting!!

kinger_OIL

frjohnk,

got yours already from last thread!: Korpal punishment: very nice!

Ca$h-McMoney!

Rondo:
By The Numbers: Evaluating OHL Prospects With Advanced Stats

https://toddcordell.wordpress.com/2016/06/02/by-the-numbers-evaluating-ohl-prospects-with-advanced-stats/

The guy that sticks out to me on this list (relative to expectations, already knew Tkachuk was a top end guy) is Adam Mascherin.

That said the sample size is 3 games… which isn’t close to enough.

Rondo
frjohnk

kinger_OIL: 1) Who will the first player drafted by the Oil this year? (because I’m tricky/sneaky!)
2) Name one D that the Oil will acquire, not currently on roster
3) Name another D that the Oil will acquire, (no one is fine as anwer)
4) Who will be the backup goalie next year
5) Will one of the Steve Austins (Ebs/Hall/RNH) be traded (bonus point to pick right one(s))
6) Which NHL roster players will be bought-out or sent to AHL before start of next season
7) Who is going to be the forward acquired with the biggest salary in the off-season (no one fine)
8) Will MacT and/or Howson be “reassigned”?
9) How many separate trades will the Oil complete (bonus if you name one)
10) Of Griff/Nurse/Davidson/Osterle/Klef: which ones will be on starting roster for first game

1)Tkachuk
2)Demers
3)Barrie
4)Johnson
5)Yes, Nuge
6)Korpel Punishment
7)Helm
8)no
9)4
10)Nurse, Davidson, Klefbom

Hockey Buddha

Random thought…
With Tkachuk’s stock rising considerably and with all the talk of the Oilers trading down, I wonder if it might not make some sense to look at moving up a spot to acquire Columbus’s pick at 3? What it would take to acquire RWer Jesse Puljujarvi? This looks like a dominant 1-2-3 punch to me:

Pouliot (Caggiula)-Nuge-Eberle
Maroon-McDavid-Puljujarvi
Hall-Draisaitl-Yakupov

kinger_OIL

– Lots of posters responded to the pool. So I will send out a few more time to tabulate.

– Its intersting to see where there is consensus, and divergence.

– Remember, these questions are “What will the Oil do”: At least 25 resposes so far

First prize is a donation to Lowetide.2nd prize: a set of steak knifes, third place: you are banned from LT (I kid!).If I get enough responses, I will tabulate:

1) Who will the first player drafted by the Oil this year? (because I’m tricky/sneaky!)
2) Name one D that the Oil will acquire, not currently on roster
3) Name another D that the Oil will acquire, (no one is fine as anwer)
4) Who will be the backup goalie next year
5) Will one of the Steve Austins (Ebs/Hall/RNH) be traded (bonus point to pick right one(s))
6) Which NHL roster players will be bought-out or sent to AHL before start of next season
7) Who is going to be the forward acquired with the biggest salary in the off-season (no one fine)
8) Will MacT and/or Howson be “reassigned”?
9) How many separate trades will the Oil complete (bonus if you name one)
10) Of Griff/Nurse/Davidson/Osterle/Klef: which ones will be on starting roster for first game

HT Joe

prairieschooner:
If PC can not fix all the problems this year do you think he might consider some short term fixes to get through this year (is it Brian Campbell who might be available) and perhaps if there are some better free agentsfor the D next year

I hope so… if Chia signed some UFA LD (better than or equal to our existing LD right now), he could potentially make trades for RD (losing the trades, but still ending up with better RD than we currently possess) and still improve our D corps. If Chia can’t knock it out of the park, there needs to be at minimum incremental improvements at several locations.

prairieschooner

If PC can not fix all the problems this year do you think he might consider some short term fixes to get through this year (is it Brian Campbell who might be available) and perhaps if there are some better free agents for the D next year

HT Joe

Professor Q:
I highly doubt McDavid would sit or do that. It’sgoing to bev8 years.
And yes, I would expect Chia to sit him if he pulled a Drouin.

I really hope you’re right.

HT Joe

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: McDavid strikes me as something of a team player who wants to win so while he will get paid, he will leave a little room. 9.7m x 8 years would be my guess.

Sorry NYOIL… I should have simply said “If the Oilers don’t start winning, McDavid won’t have a reason to demand anything short of the absolute maximum amount”

Professor Q

HeatTreaterJoe,

I highly doubt McDavid would sit or do that. It’s going to be 8 years.

And yes, I would expect Chia to sit him if he pulled a Drouin.

HT Joe

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: McDavid strikes me as something of a team player who wants to win so while he will get paid, he will leave a little room. 9.7m x 8 years would be my guess.

I am hoping for your optimistic assessment to play out, but I’m not so sure. Bobby Orr represents both Taylor Hall and McDavid. Taylor Hall’s season-ending interviews seem to show a young man who has become increasingly blunt and unhappy from perennial losing.

If the Oilers continue to lose, and Taylor Hall becomes more dissatisfied with losing forever (Schultz winning a cup won’t help this), I’d place a bet on Orr squeezing Katz hard: worst case scenario obviously is to demand for McDavid to receive maximum pay and sign for only the minimum number of years to free agency (meaning McDavid would be a UFA in 2022 – I think?).

If the Oilers balk at signing such a deal, McDavid could just sit it out for a few months. What is a bottom 3 team in the league going to do? Sit out the franchise player of the whole league? Orr effectively has a ton of power in this situation, and last season’s 29th place finish would have done nothing to improve the relationship between the Oilers and Orr, Hall and McDavid.

NOTE: To be clear, I would be happy for Schultz if we wins a cup. Good for him. I just believe that this will not impact Taylor Hall positively.

EDIT: To re-iterate some comments above, the Oilers should be really, really desperate to fix the blueline right now!!

N64

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Well, I think that’s what we are facing, don’t you? ESPECIALLY this summer, coveted UFAs are going to ask for NMCs. And Chia doesn’t seem against giving them out, but he is going to have to think long and hard about this one.

Can’t they just go NMC for the part of a contract?

They’re be a lot of that if NMC are protected AND outside the count.

The NHL also could grandfather existing NMC but count new NMC.

I’d also suggest that expiring contracts not be exempt from expansion as players aren’t being forced to move.

But you can be sure that whoever dreamt up the chia tMac comp rules will get to botch this one

Of course if they grandfather NMC lou will trade for Stamkos negotiation rights in the morning sign the NMC in the afternoon and the cutoff date will somehow be for the day after.

bendelson

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: One of Vatanen/Barrie
One Demers
One Severson

I like it but let’s tweak that a little to add another option:

One of Vatanen/Barrie
One Demers
One of Severson/Pysyk

If you score on the other two, I’d consider Fayne a reasonable consolation prize should Demers choose to get overpaid elsewhere.

russ99

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: We pray that if they are doing 2 expansion teams they don’t do one per year because the Oilers would be totally fucked if they had expansion drafts in back-to-back years and had to protect McDavid, Nurse, etc. as well.

McDavid, Hall, Draisaitl, Nuge, Eberle, Klefbom, Nurse, Sekera- that’s 8.
The rest all exposed.

Unfair to the teams that are finishing a rebuild and trying to emerge while teams like Toronto get to keep all their recent picks that are exempt.

Meh, we’d lose one player per expansion club and could replace a picked player with cap room freed up. Not to mention all those sneaky pre-draft trades.

Expansion draft is not a huge worry with a competent management. Being able to get balance this summer is a bigger worry.

Heck of a game by the Pens tonight, glad they capped it off, would really suck to lose after long stretches of dominance,

Good game by Justin tonight too.

square_wheels

LadiesloveSmid,

Woodguys brilliant study on Demers – http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca

He’s a 2nd pair RHD with little doubt. Maybe 6 will feel fine when he plays with Sekera, Dreamy or even Davidson. Oduya sucked the life out of him.

BUT I do have a soft spot for Ricki’s HSCA box protection players, as long as they’re 5/6 and can skate.

BlueNoteNorth

hugo:
Not sure if someone has posted this here but there might be a possibility that the oilers wont have to protect Sekera in the expansion draft.

Pierre LeBrunVerified account
‏@Real_ESPNLeBrun
Difference between no-trade and no-movement clauses, clearly, in expansion draft. Daly says players with just NTC can be exposed

Pierre LeBrunVerified account
‏@Real_ESPNLeBrun
And while Daly wouldn’t say, presuming therefore that players with full no-moves can’t be exposed. Looks like they’ll be immune to exp draft

Another take would be NMC players cannot be exposed and must therefore be included on the protected list. Cannot see vets getting any free passes.

square_wheels:
NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

It’s just Demers at 6m, gross. I’d much rather add Vatannen at 3 RHD for 4.X. I think Chia needs to aim higher but in all honesty I would sooner pay Demers 6 for 5 than Seabrook 7 for eternity.

But Demers making Hall/Nuge money raises the bar so bloody high for middle 2, what does that mean for McDavid ? 12M ??

McDavid strikes me as something of a team player who wants to win so while he will get paid, he will leave a little room. 9.7m x 8 years would be my guess.

I think the Oilers should ideally aim for 3 defensemen:

One of Vatanen/Barrie
One Demers
One Severson

godot10

One can play games with the contract of a UFA, like stuffing a huge signing bonus due July 1, 2017, two weeks after the expansion draft, to deter an expansion team choosing them.

i.e. Demers

$4, $10, $4, $4, $4, $4…$30 million over 6 years,

square_wheels

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

It’s just Demers at 6m, gross. I’d much rather add Vatannen at 3 RHD for 4.X. I think Chia needs to aim higher but in all honesty I would sooner pay Demers 6 for 5 than Seabrook 7 for eternity.

But Demers making Hall/Nuge money raises the bar so bloody high for middle 2, what does that mean for McDavid ? 12M ??

LadiesloveSmid

square_wheels,

why is Demers a #4D? seems like a right handed, younger Sekera no? would like to know how the two compare statistically. I’d love Demers at anything under 6 honestly, the right side is so putrid

Professor Q

Lol. Hertl shaking his booty at the Penguins bench.

square_wheels:
NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

Instead we get a #4 D for 6M ? Jesus, I’m not certain we need to be that desperate ?

Damn. We do. Fix the D.

Well, I think that’s what we are facing, don’t you? ESPECIALLY this summer, coveted UFAs are going to ask for NMCs. And Chia doesn’t seem against giving them out, but he is going to have to think long and hard about this one.

square_wheels

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

Oh that’s exactly what Bettman would love. Sounds like you let the cat out of the bag.

Unfair ? Like Lombardi cap fuckery unfair or just Lucic tripping our goalie and then they score immediately after and it’s neither a penalty or a no goal unfair ?

Once Bill Daley made his announcement last summer nothing is fair. However we’ve got McDavid and the league can go pound sand.

square_wheels

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

Instead we get a #4 D for 6M ? Jesus, I’m not certain we need to be that desperate ?

Damn. We do. Fix the D.

Lowetide: Yes. They would have to choose from each team. ALTHOUGH teams could lose one player each to two expansion team, each of the new teams getting 15 players.

We pray that if they are doing 2 expansion teams they don’t do one per year because the Oilers would be totally fucked if they had expansion drafts in back-to-back years and had to protect McDavid, Nurse, etc. as well.

McDavid, Hall, Draisaitl, Nuge, Eberle, Klefbom, Nurse, Sekera- that’s 8.
The rest all exposed.

Unfair to the teams that are finishing a rebuild and trying to emerge while teams like Toronto get to keep all their recent picks that are exempt.

square_wheels:
NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

You think a guy like Erikson wouldn’t want a NTC/NMC ? Curious how teams will approach UFA’s and how much term and cost will be needed to avoid those clauses ? 10% uplift …..20% …..more ??

He will want one. That’s what I have been saying about Demers, too. What I suggest is overpaying them. With Demers you offer $5M x 5 with NMC (won’t get it done) or go $6m x 6 with no NMC. It’s effectively a NMC because Las Vegas is very unlikely to pick up that contract.

hugo

Not sure if someone has posted this here but there might be a possibility that the oilers wont have to protect Sekera in the expansion draft.

Pierre LeBrunVerified account
‏@Real_ESPNLeBrun
Difference between no-trade and no-movement clauses, clearly, in expansion draft. Daly says players with just NTC can be exposed

Pierre LeBrunVerified account
‏@Real_ESPNLeBrun
And while Daly wouldn’t say, presuming therefore that players with full no-moves can’t be exposed. Looks like they’ll be immune to exp draft

square_wheels

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

You think a guy like Erikson wouldn’t want a NTC/NMC ? Curious how teams will approach UFA’s and how much term and cost will be needed to avoid those clauses ? 10% uplift …..20% …..more ??

godot10:

I’m protecting eight skaters and a goalie.4 D and 4 forwards, and if one of the Austin’s is traded, maybe 5D and 3 forwards.

Agree with this. As I wrote above, if Puljujarvi drops you grab him and use Eberle as a piece to get a top 4D. You then sign a guy like Eriksson to replace Eberle. You leave Eriksson exposed

Something like: 1) Hall, 2) Drai, 3) Nuge protected among Fs
4) Davidson, 5) Klefbom, 6)Sekera, 7) Severson (hypothetical Yak+ trade), 8) Barrie/Vatanen/Hamonic (hypothetical Eberle + trade) among D.
Exempt: McDavid, Nurse, Puljujarvi
Exposed: Eriksson, Pouliot, Maroon, Kassian, Demers, Reinhart, Sobotka, Lander, Letestu, Hendricks.

square_wheels

leadfarmer,

And Peitrangelo is not fast, he’s been falling off his elite D thrown for a couple years and it’s because of his wheels.

Pescador

Hi all, I’m new to expansion. I understand the Expandor™ Is allowed to pick 1 player per team. But are they obligated? Is there a limit?
Thanks
Also I have JJ on the opening night roster 4th line.

square_wheels

godot10,

Which is why if faced with Oesterle vs Gryba for a 7D take the kid every time.

Draft players that have wheels, regardless of size and position.

godot10

leadfarmer: Speed is the name of the game now.Its no longer size like it was when LA was winning the cup.The Sharks were too fast for the Blues, and made guys like Pietrangelo look slow.The Pens are making the Shark’s third pair and Martin look like they are in a lower league.

Speed is the NAME of the game now, but everyone** wants to draft Tkachuk to play with McDavid.

Pittsburgh decided to play differently…i.e. fast…than everyone else, and use speed to hide a weak defense. Pittsburgh’s defense is vulnerable if you could ever get to them, but they are fast and can handle and move the puck before you can get to them.

And they play place and chase out of their own end, when they don’t have an outlet pass. This might be the key innovation or twist.

The other coaches haven’t had long enough to really study how to shut it down with “slower” guys.

It helps when one has Crosby and Malkin.

Sullivan is a coach who is coaching the team he has. Use systems to play to his players strengths and to hide their weaknesses, even if it is “deviant”.

square_wheels

godot10,

leadfarmer: Speed is the name of the game now.Its no longer size like it was when LA was winning the cup.The Sharks were too fast for the Blues, and made guys like Pietrangelo look slow.The Pens are making the Shark’s third pair and Martin look like they are in a lower league.

Lead has it correct, skating is so critical in this league. That mistake by Polak reminds me that Gmoney is dimming the power in NW Calgary while the Taylor Hadron Collider determines when tire fires occur. If I had to guess, that mistake happened deep into his shift length. Elite D don’t make mistakes late in their shifts, shitty D routinely do…..so find the mean and look for players who are on the right side of the curve and I think you’ll find some interesting things.

godot10

square_wheels:
Pollak might have coughed that but Dillon made the horrible decision to try skating the puck out when he should have hammered it…….while the forwards were already out of the zone.

Pittsburg forechecking murder for that pair.

A goal from the unicorn line playing against the 3rd pairing D.

godot10

John Chambers:
godot10,

WG posted something I agreed with which was that Chiarelli will ultimately opt to protect 4D (Klef, Sek, Davy, & new RD), and 4F (Hall, Ebs, Drai, & Nuge), and the list of players exposed would include Pouliot, Yakupov, Maroon, and Reinhart.

Fayne seems to be about the 5th or 6th guy LV would take. Why do you suggest Fayne would provide cover to Pouliot? Is it because you feel the Oil will protect 3D and 7F and Fayne’s salary gets them to the floor?

I’ve traded Pouliot for Vatanen! -).

Pouliot will only have one year left on his contract at the expansion draft. He is good bait also, as at the end of his contract, he will be in his early 30’s and the Oilers are unlikely to re-sign him. I don’t fret losing Pouliot in the expansion draft.

I’m protecting eight skaters and a goalie. 4 D and 4 forwards, and if one of the Austin’s is traded, maybe 5D and 3 forwards.

leadfarmer

square_wheels:
Pollak might have coughed that but Dillon made the horrible decision to try skating the puck out when he should have hammered it…….while the forwards were already out of the zone.

Pittsburg forechecking murder for that pair.

Speed is the name of the game now. Its no longer size like it was when LA was winning the cup. The Sharks were too fast for the Blues, and made guys like Pietrangelo look slow. The Pens are making the Shark’s third pair and Martin look like they are in a lower league.

leadfarmer
square_wheels

Pollak might have coughed that but Dillon made the horrible decision to try skating the puck out when he should have hammered it…….while the forwards were already out of the zone.

Pittsburg forechecking murder for that pair.

John Chambers

godot10,

WG posted something I agreed with which was that Chiarelli will ultimately opt to protect 4D (Klef, Sek, Davy, & new RD), and 4F (Hall, Ebs, Drai, & Nuge), and the list of players exposed would include Pouliot, Yakupov, Maroon, and Reinhart.

Fayne seems to be about the 5th or 6th guy LV would take. Why do you suggest Fayne would provide cover to Pouliot? Is it because you feel the Oil will protect 3D and 7F and Fayne’s salary gets them to the floor?

John Chambers

Centre of attention,

I feel like you’re undervaluing Andersen.

I see the Flames or Hurricanes making an aggressive pitch for him.

godot10

JimmyV1965:
I’m on board withthe idea of grabbing Wisniewski as a stop gap. He’s actually a good dman if he can stay healthy and has a bit of nasty in his game as well.If it turns out badly, it’s not a big deal.Don’t think he fits in for the Canes either.

He played one game last year, in an injury prone career. The Oilers are already betting on Klefbom and Davidson coming back from injury.

If he is coming in as the 3rd new right shot D with Carolina retaining half his salary….

But I’m content with Fayne as the 3rd right shot D. He is good expansion bait, especially if Reinhart spends most of the year in the AHL. And he offers some cover in the expansion draft for a guy like Maroon

JimmyV1965

I’m on board with the idea of grabbing Wisniewski as a stop gap. He’s actually a good dman if he can stay healthy and has a bit of nasty in his game as well. If it turns out badly, it’s not a big deal. Don’t think he fits in for the Canes either.

Professor Q

godot10: http://edmontonjournal.com/business/commercial-real-estate/edmonton-arena-corp-and-city-of-edmonton-sue-rogers-place-architects-for-4-7-million

So what do they do now? Go back and try to fix the mistakes as efficiently as they can before September comes?

Nevermind, lol…

godot10

Professor Q:
By the way, I’m not sure if you want to go into detail or have this as a discussion topic, but does anyone know precisely why Katz sued the construction companies? What’s the purpose of doing so, for such a meaningless amount in the long run?

http://edmontonjournal.com/business/commercial-real-estate/edmonton-arena-corp-and-city-of-edmonton-sue-rogers-place-architects-for-4-7-million

stephen sheps

Centre of attention:
In my proposal, I would rather not have Cagguila in the 3L spot, maybe they sign Matthias but I doubt it. So I will leave Drake there for now.

Why not Sleppy or JJ?

Centre of attention

Lowetide:
Centre: That is a lot to think about, but I like the roster!

I think Pou, Yak and two EARLY second round picks (on draft day!!) should be enough to free up Vatanen and Anderson. Likewise I think you can get Buffalo to cough up their other third rounder as well as their second in order to move up.

After that series of trades the Oilers have four 3rd round picks. They could easily trade up or down at that point, or grab some of these fascinating Euro prospects. All sorts of options with all those picks.