A NEW TOMORROW

by Lowetide

A year ago, I felt adding McDavid guaranteed a major turn north. I didn’t write it, or say it, but I believed it. Jesus, Mary and Joseph, how on earth can you screw that up? Well, losing your good young defensemen, overplaying your other young defenseman, a wobbly goalie start and various other maladies and that’s all she wrote.

So. We are all another year older. If I say ‘the Oilers are going to turn north in 2016-17 as along as they can add one substantial defenseman (the blue stays somewhat healthy) and McDavid plays 82’ can you get behind that? God. Or maybe we go opposite George. ‘Hi I’m George, I’m unemployed and I live with my parents.’

Among the most frustrating things about cheering for a losing team is that you simply can’t project success—because the team doesn’t follow established wisdom in team building. It’s incredible. Fix one area, another tire goes flat. Balance, baby. It looks easy when you have it.

Peter Chiarelli’s task is to get Edmonton back to do (do-re-mi) in terms of quality and depth. Here is the opening night lineup in 2005 fall (C-L-R):

  • L1: Horcoff-Smyth-Dvorak
  • L2: Peca-Torres-Hemsky
  • L3: Stoll-Moreau-Pisani
  • L4: Reasoner-Harvey-Laraque
  • D1: Pronger-Staios
  • D2: Ulanov-Smith
  • D3: Cross-Bergeron

Music! Logic and reason, explainable decisions, players with two-way skills, veterans and brilliance and the simple play. Discipline, defensive acumen, deft passes and a mean streak. Decent top pairing. Lordy. And you know what the damnable thing is? The damnable thing is this team is close—the play here is subtle brush strokes on canvas. The rumble feels like there will be a spray gun applied to summer.

https://twitter.com/DraftGeekHockey/status/739663562725982208

Pierre-Luc Dubois would be my choice at No. 4, but reading the tea leaves one suspects Matt Tkachuk is the answer. Trading down is an option mentioned as well by Peter Chiarelli so that is a possibility. One thing I do hope: The GM is at least partially running the counter trey through Oilers media. Coy hasn’t been in vogue for most of this century in Edmonton, but it does have its uses. What if he is implying Tkachuk while laying the groundwork for a trade to No. 8, drafting Sergachev or Brown, and adding another piece? I think that would be a fine idea.

bear

  • Oilers Director of Player Personnel Bob Green: “We’re really excited because we have a lot of picks. The timing of that couldn’t be better. Every time we look at our lists and talk about players we see that. We get into the third round and beyond and we’re still going to be taking guys that have a great opportunity so it is exciting.” Source

That was last year, before the 2015 draft. One area Oilers fans should be happy is the draft last summer—although the team has not signed Ethan Bear after it sounded imminent. Still, if you look at the draft picks from 2015 all arrows are rock solid save the goalie taken in the 200s and who knows maybe he is good, too.

MONEYBALL

David Staples had an article quoting John Shannon in regard to Tyler Bozak as a possible acquisition. Idea being don’t trade for losers. I believe hockey people do in fact think that way, and that Shannon’s comments are a fair representation of prevailing wisdom. People are always talking about moneyball opportunities, that (to me) is one. Tyler Bozak is a perfectly good (overpaid) NHL center, if you could get him for nothing (salary retained?) then for me that is a move that might make your team better.

DRAFT TIDBITS

  • Mark Scheig, The Hockey Writers: Erie Otters defenseman Jordan Sambrook had 12 interviews at the Combine. For someone projected as a fifth-round pick, that’s pretty good interest. One interview in particular went very well. The team? The Edmonton Oilers. They of course need defenseman. Sambrook has the tools to develop into a solid defenseman. Don’t be surprised if the Oilers consider taking him with one of their two fifth-round picks, if he’s still on the board. Source

I have Sambrook at No. 105, so using a fifth-round selection him would represent good value. A nice prospect. Righty. Erie Otters but this was his first OHL season.

LHD

Last summer, when Peter Chiarelli traded for Griffin Reinhart, he added another prospect to a crowded field. I think he will cull the herd this summer, but remain uncertain about who should be moved out. GR has less trade value than a year ago, Brandon Davidson more but why on earth would you trade that contract? That area of the roster will be very interesting to me this summer. Smart GMs fix issues like this quickly, Peter Chiarelli has about 12 LHD and two righties. Needs fixing.

WHITEY AND EARL

Lots of talk about Chiarelli possibly doing this or that, or roster construction going the wrong way. The NHL is a copycat league, not surprising fans believe chasing the latest trend is a good idea (Note: Three dangerous lines, as Pittsburgh has now, IS a good idea).

Whitey Herzog, who won with jackrabbits and junk pitchers, and Earl Weaver, who won with OBP and three-run blasts, taught me a lot about sports. One of the lessons: There is more than one way to win.

Take Milan Lucic. I think Peter Chiarelli is going to offer him a lot of money. I do not think that is a necessary move. That said, it is also not a move that cuts off all hope of success.

https://twitter.com/NicholsOnHockey/status/739814790755803136

The danger is in trading Taylor Hall. Getting full value for him would be very difficult, partly because of what John Shannon talked about above. Hall’s resume is outstanding, but he has never played in an NHL playoff game. Despite the Memorial Cups and the other successes, NHL playoffs are a different level according to the large foreheads that represent NHL wisdom. It is a dangerous and fantastic month to come, I am reminded of my youth when the next great album release was on the way. Sometimes it would be Physical Graffiti (incredible!) and sometimes it would be Presence (NOT incredible!). Pray for Kashmir.

MCKENZIE HIT ON TSN 1260

Summary here, lots of interesting items including Tyson Barrie to the Oilers, and a Kevin Shattenkirk item, too. I might wheel back to this later today. Fascinating.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We are back! I will be on the roundtable this morning with Dusty and Wil, plus host the Dave Jamieson Show. The holiday was fun, but I am looking forward to getting back to it. TSN1260, Lowdown starts at 10, scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. SC Finals turn on G4, that is tonight!
  • Andrew Bucholtz, 55-Yard Line. CFL pre-season only days away!
  • Sunil Agnihotri, Copper & Blue/The SuperFan. Expansion, trading Hall and the month to come.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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Marc

stevezie:
Marc,

If lose a guy we sign a year or two after signing him that’s not a loss. We get that year for money and then stop paying him. It would be ideal, in fact.

True, it’s more likely we lose some one else but everyone else has the same gun to their heads so it’s no big deal. We have to get better.

Agreed, but I don’t expect any significant UFA to sign this summer that doesn’t include an NMC. Any UFA D that doesn’t attract sufficient interest to leverage into an NMC is unlikely to be a difference maker.

stevezie

Marc,

If lose a guy we sign a year or two after signing him that’s not a loss. We get that year for money and then stop paying him. It would be ideal, in fact.

True, it’s more likely we lose some one else but everyone else has the same gun to their heads so it’s no big deal. We have to get better.

GCW_69

Lowetide: Do you remember Smith and Staios? That was a good defense, would kill for those two (in that era).

That defence didn’t come together until they got Spacek.

AsiaOil

4/62 is probably not enough to get 7/20 (if you look at expected games played) unless another factor is in play. ARZ wanting the local kid make up the difference? Don’t know. But even if you had to use 4/31 it’s still close and you still can make the case if you get the right dman for #22 plus Sergachev.

Not sure that guy is Shatts though – his +/- (yes I know it’s limitations) was a team worst in both the playoffs (-8) and regular season (-14) on a very good possession team. Parayco was +28 for comparison. I’d be wary of Shatts in any kind of tough minute role.

blainer: Love the idea of #4 and # 62 for # 7 and # 20.
The number 20 could then be used for Shattenkirk. If we can’t sign Shatts trade him for a first at the deadline.
So the deal would end up being # 4 and # 62 for Sergachev/ Chyc and Shattenkirk.

Marc

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Sign Demers to a poison pill deal and acquire one D by trade and it’s all good.

Or trade a pick to ask LV to select someone else.

Why would Demers accept anything less than a full NMC? If he gets a NMC he’s fully from expansion drafts (and trades) not just next summer, but for the length of the contract. If he doesn’t, he’s not. And with a bunch of teams looking for D this offseason and him the best available UFA, someone will give it to him.

And why would LV accept a draft pick in place of either Klef or the Oilers’ unprotected top 6 D (Pouliot?). The pick (or more likely, picks) would have to be a significantly better bet than the player for it to be worth their while.

Marc: If you get two D this summer, one of them (or Klef) gets exposed in the expansion draft. Or one of the top 6 forwards (and all the bottom 6) get exposed.

We need 2 D, but only one can be a ‘premium’ addition. The other needs to be someone who’s either acquired cheaply enough that he can be comfortably exposed in the expansion draft, or on an expiring contract.

Sign Demers to a poison pill deal and acquire one D by trade and it’s all good.

Or trade a pick to ask LV to select someone else.

jonrmcleod

speeds:
Interesting comments on Keller from Bob Green on Jason Gregor’s show! Pretty positive comments!

How so?

Marc

stevezie:
I like Shattenkirk better than some on here and would consider the deal, but suspect size, lower draft pedigree and crazy management is going to make Barrie the best value.

The important thing is we get two defenceman. From here that looks entirely possible. Not buying out Nikita may yet work out in our favour as we have the cap space to do what needs to be done.

If you get two D this summer, one of them (or Klef) gets exposed in the expansion draft. Or one of the top 6 forwards (and all the bottom 6) get exposed.

We need 2 D, but only one can be a ‘premium’ addition. The other needs to be someone who’s either acquired cheaply enough that he can be comfortably exposed in the expansion draft, or on an expiring contract.

stevezie

I like Shattenkirk better than some on here and would consider the deal, but suspect size, lower draft pedigree and crazy management is going to make Barrie the best value.

The important thing is we get two defenceman. From here that looks entirely possible. Not buying out Nikita may yet work out in our favour as we have the cap space to do what needs to be done.

ashley

We’ve seen from 2010 (Hall) right up to last year (McDavid) the hero who was skating in to turn this ship North. The problem is that this is not football, basketball, or cricket where one player can carry a team on their back (not that Hall hasn’t tried to do just that for the past 6 years).

In hockey, one player is still just one player even if he is McDavid playing for just one third of the game. Crosby, Gretzky, Lemieux, Richard and all the greats needed a substantial supporting cast. Not just mediocre guys who can skate and hit, but substantial skill.

Hockey is the teamiest of professional team sports.

stevezie

Fog of Warts,

Goldman was maybe the most right about Saving Private Ryan as he has ever been about anything. Probably the best chapter in a great book.

who

Ducey: That’s also assuming they can afford to keep all those guys. They can’t.

They were dead last in payroll last year – $11.6 million short of the Cap.

Love the jets future roster. They won’t keep em all but i could see their top end in 2 years looking something like this:
Ehlers, Sheiffle. Laine
Connors, Little, Wheeler
Dano, Copp, Armia
Petan, Lowry, Burmistrov

Chabot, Buff
Morissey, Myers
???, Trouba

Hellebuck

They also have an extra first rounder this year besides Laine and a lot of these guys will be expansion exempt next year. That is some impressive young depth. Oilers may be better at the top but they can’t match this depth.

speeds

Interesting comments on Keller from Bob Green on Jason Gregor’s show! Pretty positive comments!

leadfarmer

John Chambers: Basically Willis illustrates here how Shattenkirk is a legit top-pair defender, who Stl uses for O-zone starts and powerplay as a result of his superior offensive abilities.
http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/cult-of-hockey-if-kevin-shattenkirk-becomes-cap-casualty-in-st-louis-oilers-should-be-interested

It’s a risky bet, similar to the one Garth Snow made when he acquired Thomas Vanek for a 1st rounder.

Basically a player like Shattenkirk would have to live in Edmonton, make a few friends, and have success on the ice playing with say Sekara and with McDavid. Maybe 35 games into the schedule he gets a multi-year offer at a dollar amount he’s comfortable with and says “what the hell” as he’s more likely to win a cup in Edmonton than he is going home to Boston.

At worst he then gets traded in February for another 1st rounder and a prospect, and you’ve got Barbashev, a 1st, 55 games worth of Kevin Shattenkirk, and a prospect as compensation for losing Tkachuk.

There’s risk to it but maybe we need to expose ourselves to some semblance of risk …

Sure if you average last 5 years he looks good. If you look at last year his numbers fell apart hence he says 4 out of the last 5 years a lot. So yes I’m against spending the 4th overall which gives us a choice of 3 very good prospects for an offensive defenseman that really struggled last year and has one year on his contract before he can go anywhere and we aren’t exactly a prime destination for American players

Lois Lowe

Ca$h-McMoney!,

That was kind of why I brought him up. I wanted to see if people were as high on him now as they were then. I wanted to find a way to squeeze Barzal in a Hamonic deal but it’s just not there.

OilFire

rickithebear: Fuck is an abbreviation of Firetruck!?
I am just expressing the same excitement about stats on here!
As I did in my youth, when I saw a firetruck go by.
Clearly you have the same passion!
Or does it mean something less?
Do tell!

Thanks for clearing that up Ricki. Sadly, my vocabulary in the area of curse words has always been a bit holey ’cause I’m wholly holy.

leadfarmer

rickithebear:
Pitsburgh has 3 of the 12 best point share forwards in the game driving their 3 lines.
SJ has 2 of the 3 best HSCA D in the game.
but their lack of HSCA D depth is showing having to face 3 lines with top 12 point share forwards.
But Myurray who was having one of the best HSCA svae % playoffs. IS shitting the bed on low chance sjots.
Jones is saving

when we look at Corsi – Shts- HSCF – goals
gm 1
Pit 67- 41 – 20 – 3G fom 16 High chance shots
SJ 58 – 20 – 8 – 2g from 8 High scoring chance shots High Scoring chane area front area of MCS and HCS

Gm 2
Pit 52 – 27 – 6 – 2G from 6 High scoring chane shots
SJ 46 – 20 – 7 – 0G from HCSA; 1G from 11 Low chance shots

GM3
Pit 73 – 41 – 15 – 2 1G from 22 Low chance shots; 1G from 15 HSC Shots
SJ 66 – 19– 8 – 3 2G from low chance shot; 2G from 8 HSC Shots

San Jose actually has a better and HSC shot % 39% of shots
to
30.9% of shots for PIT.

The difference in the series is the poor 1st period in game 1.
That yielded 2 Goals on a large High chance shot total.

This is another example of where our analysis differs. It’s not Penguins offense that’s winning the series, it’s not SJ defense that’s the storyline either. It’s The Penguins suffocating team defense that is taking the puck away from SJs absolutely frustrating them. And it’s happening all over the ice. This is not the direct takeaways which numbers are minuscule like you listed above. These are indirect takeaways that’s preventing the Sharks from getting any room or speed. It’s the sticks on pucks, bodies in the way things like that. Then they take that change in possession and go as fast as they can the other way before SJ can establish their team defense. By your numbers the Pens have crap d so why are the Sharks having this much trouble. Because the pens are playing as a 5 man unit in every inch of the ice. It’s not forwards playing offense and defenseman playing defense

Water Fire

Ducey: That’s also assuming they can afford to keep all those guys. They can’t.

They were dead last in payroll last year – $11.6 million short of the Cap.

The Oilers are in a unique position in terms of talent, age and an owner who will spend. Nobody else can match all of these things.

Given the offensive quality they need rock solid capable D. They don’t need Subban, they need Pronger getting the puck and timing perfect tape to tape breakouts and keeping the zone on PP and getting shots through to the net for rebounds, which he prided himself on.

If they get an offensive D (which I think they have now if everyone could stay healthy and a rhythm gets going) only one risky guy at most please.

I have not enjoyed the play of Shattenkirk or Burns in the final now, when the chips are down.

John Chambers

knighttown:
In some parallel universe where offense will actually matter I see Edmonton become OKC to Winnipeg’s Golden State.Winnipeg’s potential 2020 roster is shaping up to be something special.

Wheeler (33)-Schiefele (27)-Laine (22)
Stafford (34)-Kyle Connor- Ehlers (24)
Perrault (32)- Little (32)- Burmistrov (28)
Lowry (27)- Armia (27)- Dano (25)
Petan (25)-Copp (25)

Trouba (26)-Bufflin (35)
Morrissey (25)-Myers (30)
Entstrom (35)- Stuart (36)

Hellebyuck (26)

That’s assuming no other upgrades.Wow.

I foresee Edmonton, Calgary, Colorado, and Winnipeg being the clubs battling year-in year-out to make the Stanley Cup Final between 2020 and 2025.

Arizona probably has something to say around 2022, while Dallas may also be very good for a very long time.

square_wheels

rickithebear,

Hey Ricki – shameless off-topic question – you have any antelope requiring permanent removal in your neck of the woods ?

We farm west of you along the Red Deer, those damn things are spreading towards us like The Walking Dead walkers……figured you could fill me in on their hot spots 🙂

John Chambers

leadfarmer: I would really hope they don’t.Not even close.A second pairing defender who struggled last year who you only have under control for one year and he can go wherever he would like and an ok prospect with an ok first season but nothing to write home about should not start a discussion for a 4th OV pick

Basically Willis illustrates here how Shattenkirk is a legit top-pair defender, who Stl uses for O-zone starts and powerplay as a result of his superior offensive abilities.
http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/cult-of-hockey-if-kevin-shattenkirk-becomes-cap-casualty-in-st-louis-oilers-should-be-interested

It’s a risky bet, similar to the one Garth Snow made when he acquired Thomas Vanek for a 1st rounder.

Basically a player like Shattenkirk would have to live in Edmonton, make a few friends, and have success on the ice playing with say Sekara and with McDavid. Maybe 35 games into the schedule he gets a multi-year offer at a dollar amount he’s comfortable with and says “what the hell” as he’s more likely to win a cup in Edmonton than he is going home to Boston.

At worst he then gets traded in February for another 1st rounder and a prospect, and you’ve got Barbashev, a 1st, 55 games worth of Kevin Shattenkirk, and a prospect as compensation for losing Tkachuk.

There’s risk to it but maybe we need to expose ourselves to some semblance of risk …

Ducey

knighttown:
In some parallel universe where offense will actually matter I see Edmonton become OKC to Winnipeg’s Golden State.Winnipeg’s potential 2020 roster is shaping up to be something special.

Wheeler (33)-Schiefele (27)-Laine (22)
Stafford (34)-Kyle Connor- Ehlers (24)
Perrault (32)- Little (32)- Burmistrov (28)
Lowry (27)- Armia (27)- Dano (25)
Petan (25)-Copp (25)

Trouba (26)-Bufflin (35)
Morrissey (25)-Myers (30)
Entstrom (35)- Stuart (36)

Hellebyuck (26)

That’s assuming no other upgrades.Wow.

That’s also assuming they can afford to keep all those guys. They can’t.

They were dead last in payroll last year – $11.6 million short of the Cap.

square_wheels

knighttown,

35 yr old Dustin Buff and whomever his poor partner will be scare nobody but Chevy for signing him to that age. Maybe Philly will trade them a 1st rnd pick in 4 yrs ? That D is not that impressive unless you think Toby is the next Campbell b/c he will need to carry Stuart.

Everyone is trading Trouba b/c he’s overrated and Myers is and forever will be over-rated……..yet we pucker at this ?

The forward group has some talent though – I will agree to that.

However, I will take our projection any bloody day of the week as long as McD is on our roster.

This is, after-all, an Oiler’s site, lets keep the trolling to a minimum folks.

rickithebear

Tire Fire: You’ve gone too far here Ricki. I think it’s at most 80% Fuck. There’s just no way it’s entirely Fuck.

with 18 fwd and D likely in the 6-10% range.

in the first 3 games:
PIT has averaged 64 corsi and had 27.7 blocked or missed
43.3% quite a bit more of a affect than takeaways.
that is 36.3 Shots with only 37.6% of those shots penetrating the HSCA area. 30.9% after the first period in the first game.

SJ has averaged 56.7 corsi and had 35 blocked or missed
61.7% Pitsburgh has compressed on the HSCA.
That is only 21.7 shots with 39% penetrating.

SJ has been superior at preventing HSCA penetration .
But Pit has achieved a higher volume of pucks directed at the net.
Reflected in superior forward line depth.
Quite even since 1st period game 1.

Fuck is an abbreviation of Firetruck!?
I am just expressing the same excitement about stats on here!
As I did in my youth, when I saw a firetruck go by.
Clearly you have the same passion!
Or does it mean something less?
Do tell!

Ca$h-McMoney!

knighttown,

34 year old Drew Stafford in the 2LW spot. Lookout NHL here come the Jets.

I kid, I kid. I agree they are primed to be a heck of a team if they continue to develop well.

knighttown

In some parallel universe where offense will actually matter I see Edmonton become OKC to Winnipeg’s Golden State. Winnipeg’s potential 2020 roster is shaping up to be something special.

Wheeler (33)-Schiefele (27)-Laine (22)
Stafford (34)-Kyle Connor- Ehlers (24)
Perrault (32)- Little (32)- Burmistrov (28)
Lowry (27)- Armia (27)- Dano (25)
Petan (25)-Copp (25)

Trouba (26)-Bufflin (35)
Morrissey (25)-Myers (30)
Entstrom (35)- Stuart (36)

Hellebyuck (26)

That’s assuming no other upgrades. Wow.

rickithebear

Pitsburgh has 3 of the 12 best point share forwards in the game driving their 3 lines.
SJ has 2 of the 3 best HSCA D in the game.
but their lack of HSCA D depth is showing having to face 3 lines with top 12 point share forwards.
But Myurray who was having one of the best HSCA svae % playoffs. IS shitting the bed on low chance sjots.
Jones is saving

when we look at Corsi – Shts- HSCF – goals
gm 1
Pit 67- 41 – 20 – 3G fom 16 High chance shots
SJ 58 – 20 – 8 – 2g from 8 High scoring chance shots High Scoring chane area front area of MCS and HCS

Gm 2
Pit 52 – 27 – 6 – 2G from 6 High scoring chane shots
SJ 46 – 20 – 7 – 0G from HCSA; 1G from 11 Low chance shots

GM3
Pit 73 – 41 – 15 – 2 1G from 22 Low chance shots; 1G from 15 HSC Shots
SJ 66 – 19 – 8 – 3 2G from low chance shot; 2G from 8 HSC Shots

San Jose actually has a better and HSC shot % 39% of shots
to
30.9% of shots for PIT.

The difference in the series is the poor 1st period in game 1.
That yielded 2 Goals on a large High chance shot total.

OilFire

rickithebear: Your concern is Forwards covering a nd preventing penetration of the Puck.
wholly Fuck!

You’ve gone too far here Ricki. I think it’s at most 80% Fuck. There’s just no way it’s entirely Fuck.

Chachi

Richard S.S.:
You can talk about who can play what side forever and never convince some people you are right, myself included.When you are born, you are almost always either left hand dominant or right hand dominant and barring accident, that never changes.Reactions are automatic and unthinking.You can with difficulty, train your weak-side to better, even a lot better, even great.Natural dominance reacts first, always.

Lowetide has shown figures that show 6% improvement when right shot plays right over left shot playing right.That’s the equivalent of 5 games difference.That’s very significant.Play right where right should be and left where left should be, when you can, just don’t ignore it.

My mother grew up in Italy. The nuns at her schools would hit her if she tried to use her left hand to write. They even resorted to tying her left hand behind her back to force her to learn to write with her right hand. Even after all of that she is still very much left handed. Handedness, its a thing.

Richard S.S.

You can talk about who can play what side forever and never convince some people you are right, myself included. When you are born, you are almost always either left hand dominant or right hand dominant and barring accident, that never changes. Reactions are automatic and unthinking. You can with difficulty, train your weak-side to better, even a lot better, even great. Natural dominance reacts first, always.

Lowetide has shown figures that show 6% improvement when right shot plays right over left shot playing right. That’s the equivalent of 5 games difference. That’s very significant. Play right where right should be and left where left should be, when you can, just don’t ignore it.

Chachi

leadfarmer: I would really hope they don’t.Not even close.A second pairing defender who struggled last year who you only have under control for one year and he can go wherever he would like and an ok prospect with an ok first season but nothing to write home about should not start a discussion for a 4th OV pick

That “second pairing defender who struggled last year” would be a first pairing RD on many teams and certainly would be on the Oilers, even if they manage to sign Demers.

rickithebear

leadfarmer: Man Bears are thick.This teams problem is notdefensemen preventing HDSC or forwards scoring goals.By your measures we should have a decent team as we have high end forwards and some good HDSCA defense.The problem with this team is the everything in between part.There is no measure (other than HDSCA) for forwards to see how much they help in the D zone and there is no measure for defensemen other than occasional goal or assist to measure their contribution to offense.A defenseman’s biggest contribution to offense is taking the puck away from the opposing team and moving it with speed to their forwards so they can start the attack before the defensive systems, which are now ridiculously good, get set up.This is not measured in any way.Defensemans job in the offensive zone is to keep the puck in, distribute it around and sometimes take a shot on goal.The Oilers Dman have one foot on the line and for the most part do not engage in the offensive zone.This creates a mismatch for the defending team and a 3 on 5 down low which our small wingers have trouble beating.In the defensive zone our forwards have trouble marking their man giving juicy chances in the high slot.

So for a good team you need 5 players playing together in all 3 zones creating little mismatches all over the ice.IT is not Defenseman playing all out defense and forwards playing all out offense as it may appear to be in the bear world.

leadfarmer: Man Bears are thick.This teams problem is notdefensemen preventing HDSC or forwards scoring goals.By your measures we should have a decent team as we have high end forwards and some good HDSCA defense.The problem with this team is the everything in between part.There is no measure (other than HDSCA) for forwards to see how much they help in the D zone and there is no measure for defensemen other than occasional goal or assist to measure their contribution to offense.A defenseman’s biggest contribution to offense is taking the puck away from the opposing team and moving it with speed to their forwards so they can start the attack before the defensive systems, which are now ridiculously good, get set up.This is not measured in any way.Defensemans job in the offensive zone is to keep the puck in, distribute it around and sometimes take a shot on goal.The Oilers Dman have one foot on the line and for the most part do not engage in the offensive zone.This creates a mismatch for the defending team and a 3 on 5 down low which our small wingers have trouble beating.In the defensive zone our forwards have trouble marking their man giving juicy chances in the high slot.

So for a good team you need 5 players playing together in all 3 zones creating little mismatches all over the ice.IT is not Defenseman playing all out defense and forwards playing all out offense as it may appear to be in the bear world.

Your concern is Forwards covering a nd preventing penetration of the Puck.
wholly Fuck!

If you do not have D that prevent penetration or wander the F…….. away from the 19% of the ice 85% of the goals are from. it does not matter what the F….. the forwards do!

Build a team goalie out.

1. Top end HSC shot save % goalie. Talbot (thanks MacT!)
2. men that know to defend the HSCA first! Establish a base that the forwards can workoff systems wise. Cause if you do not know were the F…. they are……..
3. Teach your young forwards to compress to perimeter of HSCA area.
– Hopefully learning to mark properly. The point we agree on.

As for D taking away the puck?
the best take away totals last year!
1. M. Stone 75gm 128 TK
2. Skinner 82gm 77 tk
3. Byfuglien D/W 81gm 73
4. Forsberg 82gm 72
5. Thorton 82gm 69
5. Tavares 78gm 69
7. Bergeron 80gm 67
8. Grabner 80gm 67
9. Benn 82gm 65
10. Hall 82gm 64

there are 8 D in the top 50 takeaway players.
That average well less than 1 takeaway per game.
I am unaware of the current average procession rate per team.
the current corsi rate per rocession.
An early study was 37% shots per entry procession.
50% shots on Ozone FO wins.

Based on Corsi- Blocks – misses. I would be inclined to think that the less than 1/2 takaway per player has a lesser affect than the other variables.
3 of which are a direct result of compressing to cover the HSC area.
1. Blocks
2. Misses
3. Open to closed hole ratio

blainer

leadfarmer: Man Bears are thick.This teams problem is notdefensemen preventing HDSC or forwards scoring goals.By your measures we should have a decent team as we have high end forwards and some good HDSCA defense.The problem with this team is the everything in between part.There is no measure (other than HDSCA) for forwards to see how much they help in the D zone and there is no measure for defensemen other than occasional goal or assist to measure their contribution to offense.A defenseman’s biggest contribution to offense is taking the puck away from the opposing team and moving it with speed to their forwards so they can start the attack before the defensive systems, which are now ridiculously good, get set up.This is not measured in any way.Defensemans job in the offensive zone is to keep the puck in, distribute it around and sometimes take a shot on goal.The Oilers Dman have one foot on the line and for the most part do not engage in the offensive zone.This creates a mismatch for the defending team and a 3 on 5 down low which our small wingers have trouble beating.In the defensive zone our forwards have trouble marking their man giving juicy chances in the high slot.

So for a good team you need 5 players playing together in all 3 zones creating little mismatches all over the ice.IT is not Defenseman playing all out defense and forwards playing all out offense as it may appear to be in the bear world.

Man if you have been watching the cup final you can really see what you are talking about. The Pens forwards are sooo quick they are even making Shultz look good most of the time. They are playing a team D game. Their forwards are always in the right spot and this just makes what I think is an average D core look great.

We are very close if we could just stay healthy. Chia needs to be very careful. Trading Hall is very dangerous IMO even for Subban. River pushing players are very hard to come by whether it is on D or up front. I like a Hall for Subban trade as long as they have a damn decent replacement for Hall.

speeds

jonrmcleod: In that scenario, wouldn’t Columbus just take Tkachuk with the 3rd pick resulting in Puljujarvi falling to the Oilers?

Maybe not if they thought they could get a pick out moving down one spot?

blainer

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: I see what you did there. Yes, they should. Please, please, please.

LOL.. This is gonna be some kind of hockey player. Really too bad we dropped down. I know it would be the unpopular thing to do but I would draft this player 1st if I were the leafs. At worst these two players are tied but IMO I think Laine is the better player even though Toronto needs the center.

Ca$h-McMoney!

Lois Lowe:
If St. Louis offers Shattenkirk and Barbashev for 4OV, I think the Oilers think long and hard about making that move.

That’s funny, Barbashev is my go to example of “Chicken Little’ing”, meaning that we lost a 2nd round pick that turns into a guy we’re high on in Junior and we proclaim the sky to be falling. Losing Barbashev in acquiring Perron was made out to be darn near the end of the world on draft day a few years back by an awful lot of people.

This is the first I’ve seen anyone suggest acquiring him now. Interesting.

commonfan14:
Some awfully arrogant quotes coming out from Patrick Laine.

The teams at the top of the draft should probably pass on him.

I see what you did there. Yes, they should. Please, please, please.

rickithebear

I on the other hand will be ok with:
rolling:
Maroon (2.85 EVP/60) – Mcdavids (2.75) -XXX
Hall (2.50) – Drai (2.19) – XXX
pouliot (2.08) – RNH (1.98) – Eberle (2.16)

With 4th line Even production d who are top 80 in protecting the net.

leadfarmer

rickithebear: So the critical measure of players named Defencemen who play defence is the difference in 4th line level of offence. Our offence fails cause we don not have enough 4th line even production offensive D.

Gotch Ya!

Next you will tell me the critical problem for our GA is our top 30 Even production forwards not covering for the brutal HSCA; 4th line even production; offensive D getting out of position to generate that 4th line level of offence. Most likely it is the elite even production wingers faults!

We should probably trade those top 30 even production wingers for superior 4th line even production D with brutal HSCA D. Fill in the void from the moving of the top 30 Even production wingers with 4th line even production wingers who are strong in there defensive zone to cover for the upper 4th line even production D.

That way we get rid of al that nasty top 30 even production and have a Dmen driving 4th line even production and 4th line even production forwards driving the defence.

Come to think of it these amazing ideas are from TOR MSM who grew-up in communities with shallower gene pools than hudderite colonies!

Makes perfect sense to me now!

Man Bears are thick. This teams problem is not defensemen preventing HDSC or forwards scoring goals. By your measures we should have a decent team as we have high end forwards and some good HDSCA defense. The problem with this team is the everything in between part. There is no measure (other than HDSCA) for forwards to see how much they help in the D zone and there is no measure for defensemen other than occasional goal or assist to measure their contribution to offense. A defenseman’s biggest contribution to offense is taking the puck away from the opposing team and moving it with speed to their forwards so they can start the attack before the defensive systems, which are now ridiculously good, get set up. This is not measured in any way. Defensemans job in the offensive zone is to keep the puck in, distribute it around and sometimes take a shot on goal. The Oilers Dman have one foot on the line and for the most part do not engage in the offensive zone. This creates a mismatch for the defending team and a 3 on 5 down low which our small wingers have trouble beating. In the defensive zone our forwards have trouble marking their man giving juicy chances in the high slot.

So for a good team you need 5 players playing together in all 3 zones creating little mismatches all over the ice. IT is not Defenseman playing all out defense and forwards playing all out offense as it may appear to be in the bear world.

Water Fire

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: As long as they know about “winning” it is never a concern.

Ha! Didn’t see it even though I wrote it, allegedly.

commonfan29

Some awfully arrogant quotes coming out from Patrick Laine.

The teams at the top of the draft should probably pass on him.

Water Fire:
Wingers are typically able to play opposite as well if that is a concern.

As long as they know about “winning” it is never a concern.

leadfarmer

Lois Lowe:
If St. Louis offers Shattenkirk and Barbashev for 4OV, I think the Oilers think long and hard about making that move.

I would really hope they don’t. Not even close. A second pairing defender who struggled last year who you only have under control for one year and he can go wherever he would like and an ok prospect with an ok first season but nothing to write home about should not start a discussion for a 4th OV pick

rickithebear:

Gotch Ya

Come to think of it these amazing ideas are from TOR MSM who grew-up in communities with shallower gene pools than hudderite colonies!

Makes perfect sense to me now!

hahahahaha. That was clever, Ricki If I had coffee this morning I would have spat it out had I read that. Alas no coffee.

rich

LT Says: One thing I do hope: The GM is at least partially running the counter trey through Oilers media. Coy hasn’t been in vogue for most of this century in Edmonton, but it does have its uses. What if he is implying Tkachuk while laying the groundwork for a trade to No. 8, drafting Sergachev or Brown, and adding another piece? I think that would be a fine idea.

Haven’t had time to comment a lot lately because I’ve been slammed at work, but thank you for mentioning this possibility above. There are several possibilities – and they are not entirely mutually exclusive.

The first is they could be very serious about moving several of the pieces that have been mentioned and they’re very serious about taking Tkachuk at #4. This has been the way that MacT and they boys on the bus have operated for years (tell the world ahead of time what you’re going to do).

The second, they are trying to create demand for certain assets to see what gets the best return. We could see some play out before the draft or it might all happen at that point and then free agency is a matter of filling in the piece created by what actual hole is left.

My greatest concern (among many) of MacT as GM is he basically showed his cards to the media first and telegraphed every punch. I’m hopeful that Chia is better at playing things. Yes, we know he needs to do something and will. Yes, given what has happened the last 10 years, we’re excited and fearful as Oiler fans. But with so many different messages coming out, maybe, there is a scheme in place and we finally have a chess player making the moves.

We wait. We hope. May it not turn out as it always has.

Water Fire

Wingers are typically able to play opposite as well if that is a concern.

rickithebear

Klima’s_Bucket:
Chachi,

Sure you can.

The fact that the left shot Yandle put up similar numbers to the right shot Shattenkirk shows you how bad of an option Dman Shattenkirk must be if he can only put up similar numbers to an older left shot.

Clear as mud.

So the critical measure of players named Defencemen who play defence is the difference in 4th line level of offence. Our offence fails cause we don not have enough 4th line even production offensive D.

Gotch Ya!

Next you will tell me the critical problem for our GA is our top 30 Even production forwards not covering for the brutal HSCA; 4th line even production; offensive D getting out of position to generate that 4th line level of offence. Most likely it is the elite even production wingers faults!

We should probably trade those top 30 even production wingers for superior 4th line even production D with brutal HSCA D. Fill in the void from the moving of the top 30 Even production wingers with 4th line even production wingers who are strong in there defensive zone to cover for the upper 4th line even production D.

That way we get rid of al that nasty top 30 even production and have a Dmen driving 4th line even production and 4th line even production forwards driving the defence.

Come to think of it these amazing ideas are from TOR MSM who grew-up in communities with shallower gene pools than hudderite colonies!

Makes perfect sense to me now!

Water Fire

I’d rather have Lucic at 6 x 5 than Eberle 6 x 3 and then what? Eberle is at his peak value to the Oilers right now, especially after a hot finish, because of rep and where his contract is at, it drops from here forward as term reduces.

Not a criticism of Eberle, but a real choice for a GM if you want to stay competitive.