RE 15-16 ERIC GRYBA: BULLETPROOF

by Lowetide

In the hours after Edmonton traded for Eric Gryba, I reached out to Travis Yost—a keen observer of the game and a man familiar with the Ottawa Senators. Although we had seen Gryba play for Ottawa, he was never the focus of attention at any time. Such is the nature of the defensive defenseman. (Bulletproof)

ERIC GRYBA 2014-15

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.75 (4th among regular D)
  • 5×4 points per 60: nil
  • Qual Comp: 6th toughest faced among regular D (3rd pairing)
  • Qual Team: 4th best available teammates among regular D (2nd pairing)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 46.8
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -4.3
  • Zone Start: 41.9%
  • Zone Finish: 48.5%
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 65 shots
  • Boxcars: 75, 0-12-12

ERIC GRYBA 2015-16

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.44 (3rd among regular D)
  • 5×4 points per 60: nil (in 2 minutes and 33 seconds)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 49.5
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: 1.4
  • Qual Comp: third pairing
  • Qual Team: third pairing
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 65 shots
  • Boxcars: 54, 1-5-6 .107

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER

oilers d final vollman 15-16The Vollman shows Gryba in the less sheltered area (soft parade) but he does not have a blue bubble (blue bubbles are good, especially when they land in the spot Klefbom occupies). Although the numbers above show he was close to 50 percent in possession, Gryba was playing against opposition that could have been dominated.

RE 15-16: 50GP, 0-6-6 .120

ACTUAL 15-16: 54GP, 1-5-6 .107

  1. What did Yost say? He told us the big man can defend but would not help as a passer. That was extremely accurate.
  2. Exact words? Travis Yost: “Eric Gryba legitimately improved last two years. Third pairing guy now. He can’t move the puck at all. he’s OK defensively though.”
  3. He was very popular. Edmonton is a working man’s town, Gryba is a working man’s hockey player.
  4. How much did he play? He was third pairing at evens, 15:32 per night. He played a lot on the PK—2:17 a night—and was one of the more successful defenders based on corsi rel 4×5.
  5. Who did he play with? Brandon Davidson was his most common partner, they were very successful—53.7 percent—with Gryba just 47.5 without.
  6. He sucks! Well, no. It is a team game. Griffin Reinhart (44.5), Darnell Nurse (48.5) and Andrew Ference (45.4) were other partners—rookies and older blue. Gryba would have had solid numbers if he had been with Davidson for the entire year.
  7. Did he play with better or worse players in Edmonton compared to Ottawa? About the same. If we make a direct comparison between Davidson this year and Wiercioch last season, it is pretty similar. Mark Borowiecki 475 minutes (45.3% Corsi for 5×5 %), Patrick Wiercioch 152 minutes (52.9%), Chris Phillips 139 minutes (46.9%), Jared Cowen 115 minutes (47.6%).
  8. Should the Oilers sign him? I think they might.
  9. Should the Oilers sign him? He is somewhat similar in style to Mark Fayne, I think Edmonton should keep Fayne and add two more substantial two-way blue.
  10. Is it Fayne or Gryba? Maybe. Probably. I don’t think Edmonton can find two RHD better than Fayne this summer, but could find two better than Gryba.
  11. So, as a 7D? Yes, I think that may be where he lands. Edmonton might prefer Adam Clendening or a LHD in that spot.
  12. Lots of blocked shots? 78. No. 5 among Oilers, behind all the regular D.
  13. Regular D? Yes. Sekera, Nurse, Fayne, Davidson.
  14. How many hits? 132, No. 4 on the team. Behind Hendricks, Nurse and Pakarinen.
  15. He is going to get a raise. No idea, Edmonton may or may not sign him and I do not know the market for this player type.
  16. Boston signed Kevan Miller to a deal for $2.5 million. Yes. That is true.
  17. Gryba’s cap hit was $1.25 million. Also true.
  18. He should get a raise. He will need to find a team willing to pay. I do not believe Edmonton will sign him at that price. If they trade Mark Fayne and sign Eric Gryba, one of the reasons will be getting a defensive defender for far less.
  19. In your opinion. Yes. And Fayne is a better player than Gryba, so the roles would not be identical.
  20. Will he be back? I will guess no. For me, trading Fayne and keeping Gryba would also mean getting three RHD better than Fayne. Cannot see it.
  21. Why this song? Great tune. Gryba is one of the last of these types of players and I will miss them when they are gone.
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wrosychuk

Regardless of what we think about Eric Gryba (even though I think we keep him) I think we need to pay particular attention to Patrick Wiercioch. This is the type of player that should be on our list this summer if available.

What’s not to like about ANOTHER Brandon Davidson?

Bad Seed

Chachi: Yes, because Hanzal is so hot right now.

Ha! Excellent!

BONVIE

AsiaOil:
So I sat down and watched a few full game highlight packages on Sergachev, Dubois, Tkachuk, Brown, Chychrun. Prefer the more complete picture the full game highlights give you than the one sided greatest hits packages. Sergachev has a lot of work to do defensively, Brown is big but a bit passive, Chychrun’s offensive upside looks limited. Tkachuk has great skills in the offensive zone (shooting, board work, and also a really good passer) but man he needs an invitation to his own end and the skating is average at best. Perfect fit with Marner, Dvorak and Joulevi though as these guys completely cover his defensive/skating weak points and he maximizes their time in the offensive end. But at #4 I don’t want a one way guy with skating issues.

Got to say that Dubois is awfully appealing at #4 if the top 3 go as advertised. Big, fast, well developed two way game, and he plays with a serious edge that would be really nice in our top 6 at RW. I think he is big enough and responsible enough to play 4th line RW next year, and man would he look good with CMD in a couple of years. More than any of these kids he is the guy I would not like to play against. If Calgary or Van get him he will be a serious pain in the ass for a decade.

So my top 10 is:Matthews, Laine, JP, PLD, TK, Brown, Sergachev, Juolevi, Chychrun, Keller

What a year to draft 4-9! I like all of these guys, I really like Chychrun but I can see going wrong with any of these picks. It actually hurts knowing that each one of our rivals will also get one of these guys. I think if I was the Oilers I would really be leaning toward the two Windsor players just because having Rocky Thompson bringing these guys along you know it eliminates a ton of risk, and this guy is like Todd Nelson he is a winner and has that winning mentality, next year will likely be a big year for the Winsor team. Thompson also knows these players better than anyone and the Oilers have that close connection.

AsiaOil

But Fayne is capable of handling 2nd pair RD when injuries strike while Gryba is no more a 3rd pair guy. We have Fayne – he’s mediocre and over-paid – but he’s a better overall dman than Gryba. At the end of the day……Fayne w/ Davidson on 3rd pair > Gryba w/ Davidson on 3rd pair.

stush18: I would be fine with retaining gryba and trading fayne.

AsiaOil

So I sat down and watched a few full game highlight packages on Sergachev, Dubois, Tkachuk, Brown, Chychrun. Prefer the more complete picture the full game highlights give you than the one sided greatest hits packages. Sergachev has a lot of work to do defensively, Brown is big but a bit passive, Chychrun’s offensive upside looks limited. Tkachuk has great skills in the offensive zone (shooting, board work, and also a really good passer) but man he needs an invitation to his own end and the skating is average at best. Perfect fit with Marner, Dvorak and Joulevi though as these guys completely cover his defensive/skating weak points and he maximizes their time in the offensive end. But at #4 I don’t want a one way guy with skating issues.

Got to say that Dubois is awfully appealing at #4 if the top 3 go as advertised. Big, fast, well developed two way game, and he plays with a serious edge that would be really nice in our top 6 at RW. I think he is big enough and responsible enough to play 4th line RW next year, and man would he look good with CMD in a couple of years. More than any of these kids he is the guy I would not like to play against. If Calgary or Van get him he will be a serious pain in the ass for a decade.

So my top 10 is: Matthews, Laine, JP, PLD, TK, Brown, Sergachev, Juolevi, Chychrun, Keller

Bruce McCurdy

Gryba 2014-15: 0.75 EVP/60, fourth on Senators
Gryba 2015-16: 0.44 EVP/60, THIRD on Oilers

Chachi

FUHR31:
Would you guys do 4for 7 and Hanzel

Yes, because Hanzal is so hot right now.

FUHR31

With Hanzel as our 3 C we could then run Hall Nuge Drai on a line
Draft Sergachev at 7

FUHR31

Would you guys do 4 for 7 and Hanzel

Barcs

Rondo:
AsiaOil,

After the 25 minute mark Rocky Thompson onSergachev

http://omnyapp.com/shows/inside-sports/june-2-inside-sports-hr-3-jamie-nye-rocky-thompson

Thanks for that. Fantastic interview. Rocky Thompson is so well spoken. I know/think a lot more of Brown, Sergachev, and Stanley than I did before.

Really liked how Rocky brought up deployment, Corsi, and QualComp for those 3.

stevezie

Rondo,

I’d be fine with the move. The team needs depth as much as they need quality, so if we can get a good D and a good piece it makes sense to me to forgo the #4.

stush18

I would be fine with retaining gryba and trading fayne.

The money saved between gryba and fayne vs the results lends me to believe retaining gryba would be the best idea.

As LT says, he played quite well with Davidson. I also noticed on the penalty kill he seemed to be quite an effective player.

Also isn’t ranking him behind on blocked shots and hits kind of nitpicking considering he was injured for almost half the year? If you pro rate him for a full year he is at 115 blocked shots and over 200 hits. I think you are spinning it as if he wasn’t the most physical dman we have, besides nurse. He brings an element that we do not have.

Again part of the problem with fancies is the lack of importance it lays on these stats. Obviously the player needs to be able to make plays, but you need physicality.

Rondo

stevezie,

#7 would be the likely spot for Sergachev

Arz- Tkachuk Dubois or Brown

Van- Tkachuk Dubois or Brown

Cal- Tkachuk Dubois , Brown, Nylander , Sergachev, Juolevi

Rondo
stevezie

Rondo,

If you want Sergachev you have to trade down.

Professor Q

Lowetide: I think Keller is an outstanding prospect, would not surprise me at all to see him taken inside the top five overall. I think Logan Brown could end up there, too.

Imagine Brown and Lucic aside McDavid? With Nurse and Paigin on the blue?

stush18

AsiaOil:
I think Sergachev is the guy you trade down for as he may be under-valued. If that’s true – and I don’t know if it is – then getting him at say 7 along with another asset may be the thing to do. He was the leading defense goal scorer in the OHL and only 3 points off the points lead as a 17 year old Euro transfer. He’s big (6-2.5/220) with wheels,passing and a big shot. Really dynamic player unlike Chychrun. Only critique I’ve heard is that he’s not as focused and aggressive in the defensive zone as you would like – but he said himself that this is an area he’s working on. With Rocky Thompson as his coach you would think the Oilers have all the inside info they would need. The limited “buzz” about him puzzles me as he seems to have it all.

Agreed. I can see the oilers trading with Arizona for say Connor Murphy and their pick for number four if tkatchuk is availible still at four. Buffalo may also want to trade for him to play with eichel.

With rocky Thompson being the coach, and the oilers meeting with him through the year, I really think he is their target. He’s exactly the large dynamic puck moving dman you need.

I would be happy with chychrun to be fair as well. As leadfarmer pointed out, the Knights points totals have me leaning against any of the Knights. Marner was too dynamic this year.

Professor Q

Water Fire:
Wingers are typically able to play opposite as well if that is a concern.

They tend to wing it with such things anyway.

AsiaOil

I think Sergachev is the guy you trade down for as he may be under-valued. If that’s true – and I don’t know if it is – then getting him at say 7 along with another asset may be the thing to do. He was the leading defense goal scorer in the OHL and only 3 points off the points lead as a 17 year old Euro transfer. He’s big (6-2.5/220) with wheels,passing and a big shot. Really dynamic player unlike Chychrun. Only critique I’ve heard is that he’s not as focused and aggressive in the defensive zone as you would like – but he said himself that this is an area he’s working on. With Rocky Thompson as his coach you would think the Oilers have all the inside info they would need. The limited “buzz” about him puzzles me as he seems to have it all.

Rondo:
LT.

Would you be shocked if Oilers picked Sergachev with their #4 pick?

Kitchener

If the Oil sign Lucic, how does that impact the rest of the roster? Keeping a W spot for a prize fighter makes much less sense, as does choosing a 6D who can play rough & tumble better than he can pass the puck.

On PC’s summer flow chart, “Lucic yes or no” is higher up than resigning Eric Gryba. I think the answer to Gryba’s Edmonton future will be determined by other roster moves and won’t be addressed until at least July 6.

AsiaOil

Surprised that SJS is not doing better and PIT is doing a lot with relatively little on defense aside from Letang who basically played half the game. It’s kind of confirming the strategy I hope Chia follows this summer: keep the centers and concentrate on getting a 1RHD instead of multiple deals that have less impact. Getting one impact RHD would do way more than a couple of 2nd/3rd pair guys. Use the #4 and our excess LHD to get the right guy.

Rondo

LT.

Would you be shocked if Oilers picked Sergachev with their #4 pick?

stevezie

Great game. Pitts with only one elite defenceman is looking good. Nashville with the best top four in the league hasn’t been heard from in a few rounds.

(San Jose looks good too. Great team. Shame there can be only one winner.)

speeds

Lowetide: And early.

Would you take Keller ahead of Tkachuk, partially based on skating?

We’ll never know but I doubt a line of Keller-Dvorak-Marner wouldn’t have also put up a bunch of points…

*edit* i know you have Tkachuk ahead of Keller on your final list so I’d guess the answer is no, just curious if they are close enough that you might or might not look at something like that?

square_wheels

I think Pittsburg is driving home the fact this league is now made for great skaters to excel.

Damn is it ever fun to watch them back pressure and force turn overs.

If Chia drafts one player with skating issues he’s clearly tuned out Dellow, as I’m sure he’s already sussed out how to maximize our current roster and what’s needed to optimize it.

You can’t vastly improve too many clunky skaters by the time they’re 18 so quit drafting them late.

DRFNsuperstar

Oilspill: Since there are NO stats for passes completeD my eyes tell me a much different story. He usually makes good passes when there is forward support. He gets control and makes a good short pass. I wonder if passescompleteable will be a new stat. Dontthink shots on goal for and against can be stretched this far.

There is a stat for it, you just have to pay for Sportlogiq. It’s a contribution to a controlled zone exit.

square_wheels

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that goal was the fault of DeBoer being distracted by plastic mom behind the bench.

square_wheels

Mr DeBakey,

Ahem. The fine owner of this virtual elected Senate has been hinting at an intermission show……

If you’re a UFC fan Rogan already does a live podcast with his pal’s on the Fox Fight Nights he doesn’t call. When he retires I might only listen to this format.

A casual, group of buddies format, where they watch the game with an eye to fancy stats, community speak (lowetideism’s) and honest hockey specific debate.

Gold Jerry. GOLD.

square_wheels

Lowetide,

With an hour bike ride home from work, replenishing with beer has made me a touch loopy tonight ?

The Lowetide Game Companion – please make it happen so I don’t have to watch this.

Mr DeBakey

square_wheels: I especially don’t need Don Cherry ramming his Andy Griffith nostalgia down my throat.

I’ve been muting the sound during the 1st Intermission on HNIC telecasts for decades.
Its simple, painless and provides great piece of mind.
In fact, it worked so well, I now always mute the TV machine during intermssions.
Its simple, painless and provides great piece of mind.

Oilspill: B. Gryba is all round better if you don’t rely on shot proxies to make all your decisions.

What proxies should we use?

square_wheels

just pick Dubois already Chia, the kids a giant !

And no Austin’s goal against Talbot wasn’t special, it was tipped.

WTF am I doing watching this.

Oilspill

DRFNsuperstar:
Has Roman Polak ever made a breakout pass? Must be fun for the forwards he plays with “great Roman is on the ice lets get ready to go and try to get the puck back from their D who get tons of time to re-group and attack”

At least Gryba tries to make passes, he just misses. Polak waits for someone to come hit him and then dishes it off the boards to no one.

Since there are NO stats for passes completeD my eyes tell me a much different story. He usually makes good passes when there is forward support. He gets control and makes a good short pass. I wonder if passes completeable will be a new stat. Dont think shots on goal for and against can be stretched this far.

square_wheels

DRFNsuperstar,

In fairness to Roman he has Nurse’s fist tissue embedded in his face, he can’t see for shit.

N64

bbf_iii:
Greg WyshynskiVerified account
‏@wyshynski
Me: “No need to protect no-move clause players that are going UFA in summer 2017? That accurate?”

Bill Daly: “Yes”

https://twitter.com/wyshynski/status/739975666083336192

Would think they still can’t move though (not that they would be picked anyway).

Eliminates nonsence like zero dollar buyouts or waiving expiring NMC.

DRFNsuperstar

Has Roman Polak ever made a breakout pass? Must be fun for the forwards he plays with “great Roman is on the ice lets get ready to go and try to get the puck back from their D who get tons of time to re-group and attack”

At least Gryba tries to make passes, he just misses. Polak waits for someone to come hit him and then dishes it off the boards to no one.

square_wheels

HNIC resigns Cherry for another year.

Rogers…….where complexity is reduced to black and white.

Of course they announce it on a significant military history day, just can’t help themselves pounding Nationalism into all of us through a kids game.

Stop it. Please. I love hockey and my friends and family that serve(d). I love what this country represents as a democracy, but I don’t need soldiers saluting during the anthem in my pro sports and I especially don’t need Don Cherry ramming his Andy Griffith nostalgia down my throat.

spoiler

stevezie,

I think the issue is that Shatty’s last year was a down year… Recency bias is a huge thing in hockey. The thing is not all the years for any player look the same. They have down years followed by up years and vice versa. There is nothing to suggest that Shattenkirk is all of a suddenly a different player.

I would probably roll the dice on the trade. He is certainly a fix at RD on the 1st PP and has shown in the past he can hold his own against at least 2nd opp. We don’t have a player like that on the roster. Helluva point shot.

And if he doesn’t want to stay, then a hockey trade to the Eastern seaboard for like kind and quality next season when an extension is do-able.

speeds

stevezie:
spoiler,

I saw smart people saying no to that deal in the last thread, but at a glance it looks good to me. I’d also do the 4th for Barrie and the 40th but that deal- with a lesser pick and a less established player coming back- seems popular around here.

Are we afraid of Shat’s contract demands? In my limited viewing he seems like he can play at evens- am i so far off on that?

(I may have a tambo bias going- i loved him his draft year. “Future captain” and all that.)

Bob Stauffer has been hinting that Shattenkirk is looking to sign in the Eastern US if he goes UFA, so I think people are assuming that either he simply won’t sign long term with the Oilers, or that he will but only at a price that is likely prohibitive.

stevezie

spoiler,

I saw smart people saying no to that deal in the last thread, but at a glance it looks good to me. I’d also do the 4th for Barrie and the 40th but that deal- with a lesser pick and a less established player coming back- seems popular around here.

Are we afraid of Shat’s contract demands? In my limited viewing he seems like he can play at evens- am i so far off on that?

(I may have a tambo bias going- i loved him his draft year. “Future captain” and all that.)

Oilspill

A. He won’t be back if Fayne is here. CHIA is looking but there needs to be a taker. Any taker would want 2 mil retained. He wasn’t sent to the AHL and clear waivers because he’s good.
B. Gryba is all round better if you don’t rely on shot proxies to make all your decisions.
C. Gryba offers more needed parts to his game compared to Fayne.

bbf_iii

Greg WyshynskiVerified account
‏@wyshynski
Me: “No need to protect no-move clause players that are going UFA in summer 2017? That accurate?”

Bill Daly: “Yes”

https://twitter.com/wyshynski/status/739975666083336192

Would think they still can’t move though (not that they would be picked anyway).

jonrmcleod

godot10,

#OilersRigMockDraft

godot10

jonrmcleod:
Just a heads up…

A few of the guys on The Oilers Rig are going to do a mock draft on Twitter starting in about 15 minutes.

Alex Thomas (@Alex_Thomas14)
Joey Degner (@joeydegner)
WheatNOil (@WheatNOil)
Jason Adams (@AdamsOnOilers)
Jon McLeod (@jonrmcleod)
Supernova (@SuperNovs1)
Rexlibris (@CodexRex)
Kris Hansen (@OilerKris)

What hashtag are you using?

jonrmcleod

Just a heads up…

A few of the guys on The Oilers Rig are going to do a mock draft on Twitter starting in about 15 minutes.

Alex Thomas (@Alex_Thomas14)
Joey Degner (@joeydegner)
WheatNOil (@WheatNOil)
Jason Adams (@AdamsOnOilers)
Jon McLeod (@jonrmcleod)
Supernova (@SuperNovs1)
Rexlibris (@CodexRex)
Kris Hansen (@OilerKris)