RE 15-16 JORDAN OESTERLE: NEW MORNING SUN

by Lowetide

You can’t coach more speed and fast boots can be effective on offense and defense. Jordan Oesterle did not have the look of a future NHL player the day he turned pro—his coverage and reads were not strong—but he has shown excellent progress and overall acumen for the pro game. Speed, intelligence, skill. Interesting (New Morning Sun)

JORDAN OESTERLE 15-16

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.83 (No. 3 among D with 250+ minutes 5×5)
  • 5×4 points per 60: nil (in 29 minutes and 33 seconds)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 48.6
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: 8.8
  • Qual Comp: second pairing
  • Qual Team: third pairing
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 24 shots
  • Boxcars: 17, 0-5-5 .294

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER

oilers d final vollman 15-16Oesterle is in a pretty nice spot based on the Vollman. He was used in a softer role, but performed well in it. A nice showing by the rookie.

RE 15-16: 4GP, 0-1-1 .250

ACTUAL 15-16: 16GP, 0-5-5 .294

  1. Where is he on the depth chart? Interesting question. If we place him left side, I would say Oscar Klefbom, Andrej Sekera, Brandon Davidson, Darnell Nurse are ahead of him. So, he ranks No. 5—putting him in the AHL.
  2. If he is posted RH side? Oilers are horrible RH side. I would put Mark Fayne ahead of him, plus Sekera and Davidson if they play RH side. Oesterle can play off side and that does put him in the conversation for the NHL roster this fall.
  3. Really? Things will change this summer, but if Edmonton clears out some of the current lefties—or fails to add much on the right side—he would be an early recall, possibly make the team.
  4. I think you are overestimating him. Oesterle has good speed and has posted offense in the AHL. He has also made progress, as the quote from Mr. Fleming above shows.
  5. If he makes the team Edmonton has no chance. That is a very good point.
  6. Well. I wasn’t expecting that. It is true. Oesterle may have a career, but counting on him in any role next season would be foolish.
  7. But a good callup? Yes. I think we have seen enough of him to be encouraged, but land sakes do not thrust him into a feature role?
  8. Is he waiver eligible? No, he will be in 2017-18, so one more year. Source is Cap Friendly.
  9. Is he ahead of Joey Laleggia on the depth chart? Yes, I believe so. Things could change, and these are similar players. However, I do believe Oesterle has progressed as a player since turning pro. Laleggia has had less track, but could catch up. You never know with prospects.
  10. What about David Musil? What about David Musil?
  11. Is Oesterle ahead of him? Oesterle would not be applying for the same job. Oesterle would be looking for employment as a two-way type who could possibly help on the power play. Musil is a shutdown type who would hopefully help on the PK. Not close to the same skill set.
  12. How good is Oesterle offensively? The Prospects Stats Site I always talk about gives us some insight. Oesterle ranked No. 2 last season (behind Brad Hunt) with 1.707 estimated points per 60 (I talked about these numbers here).
  13. What about even strength? He was also behind Hunt in primary even-strength points per game (Hunt 2.50; JO 2.33; Laleggia 2.26 but he also played some at forward).
  14. Who posted the best Primary EV/60 number among the Musils (stay at home types)? Dillon Simpson, 1.79.
  15. How much does Oesterle make? He is RFA, Oesterle is sans contract. He was $925,000 cap in his entry-level deal, has every chance to be a value contract if progress continues.
  16. Will the Oilers bring him back? Oesterle, Musil and all of the restricted players have a bit of an issue in that Edmonton has a bunch of lefties. Adam Clendening, a righty, may be signed over these men.
  17. Will the Oilers bring him back? Yes, I suspect Edmonton will sign him.
  18. Why this song? I think Oesterle might have NHL talent, it is a great opportunity, a new day. The song also talks about ending things to move along to new beginnings—something of a crossroads song. Edmonton signed him, and developed him, but he is not promised to them. Big summer coming. We wait.
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Chachi

square_wheels:
godot10,

When Calgary builds the Creosote Crib I bet Jonny Hockey has a giant growth spurt and transforms into Lucic.

Seriously though, if the Flames think they’re getting a penny from this city they’re delirious, Nenshi is nobodies fool. The vacancy rate in downtown Calgary is astonishing, and with this new Carbon tax having another hand in the city and all municipalities pockets, public funds will be stretched beyond what residential and business /corporate tax can handle.

Edmonton is damn lucky they started this project during the delusion that was post 2009, as the new normal in this province for capital would laugh that project out of the room.

I would bet that The Flames will get an arena built with money paid by the city of Calgary, the Province and the Feds. The owners of the Flames are master extractors of tax payer dollars and although it may take some time they will get what they want.

Jordan

I disagree with everyone who is saying that the owners wouldn’t be excited for that infusion of money from expansion fees.

Depending on how they are receiving… if it’s a straight amount paid upfront, that’s worth a lot more than 15M.

That money represents is actually at least 10x more than that, because it could serve as the downpayment on a loan of that much.

Do you know how rich people stay rich? They leverage their money effectively, to ensure their value is always increasing.

What the owners do with that expansion fee will tell you a lot about who the smart owners in the NHL are.

Not that we will ever know… =)

Chachi

square_wheels:
Chachi,

I’d be interested to know how I’m going to benefit from an arena and hotel complex in Edmonton from my home in Calgary, or my parents farm in central Alberta ?

You are never going to come up to Edmonton for a game? Your parents aren’t fans of bullriding or whatever the hell rodeo thingy will eventually end up in the new arena? You or they will never attend a concert at the new arena in Edmonton because an act had to skip Calgary because the Saddledome was designed by morons and can’t support the stage set up of a touring group?

Tapdog

square_wheels:
Chachi,

I’d be interested to know how I’m going to benefit from an arena and hotel complex in Edmonton from my home in Calgary, or my parents farm in central Alberta ?

And everyone in the Edmonton area will be wondering the same when one eventually gets built in Calgary.

Again, what was your question?

square_wheels

Chachi,

I’d be interested to know how I’m going to benefit from an arena and hotel complex in Edmonton from my home in Calgary, or my parents farm in central Alberta ?

square_wheels

godot10,

When Calgary builds the Creosote Crib I bet Jonny Hockey has a giant growth spurt and transforms into Lucic.

Seriously though, if the Flames think they’re getting a penny from this city they’re delirious, Nenshi is nobodies fool. The vacancy rate in downtown Calgary is astonishing, and with this new Carbon tax having another hand in the city and all municipalities pockets, public funds will be stretched beyond what residential and business /corporate tax can handle.

Edmonton is damn lucky they started this project during the delusion that was post 2009, as the new normal in this province for capital would laugh that project out of the room.

Chachi

godot10: There is close to $2 billion dollars going into the ground in the arena district, and near the arena district. As long as the Alberta economy really doesn’t completely tank for a generation, the bet Edmonton City council made should pay off.The arena district appears to have jumpstarted a positive feedback development loop which should be “profitable” for the city.

I agree that there is an impressive amount of development going on around the arena. It was a bet that Edmontonians through city council made on their own city. “Albertans” other than Edmonton taxpayers contributed little to nothing to this development although they will benefit from it.

Chachi

Professor Q: I believe $25 million came from the entire province by other means, and $279 million from Edmonton (CRL)?

That 25 million was to come out of an Edmonton and area regional development fund, which I understand has not actually been delivered to the city.

Mr DeBakey

Every year I fall in love with one prospect.
Some years its Laurent Dauphin, some years its Noah Juulsen.
This year its Jordan Sambrook:

Erie Otters defenseman Jordan Sambrook had 12 interviews at the Combine. For someone projected as a fifth-round pick, that’s pretty good interest. One interview in particular went very well. The team? The Edmonton Oilers. They of course need defenseman. Sambrook has the tools to develop into a solid defenseman. Don’t be surprised if the Oilers consider taking him with one of their two fifth-round picks, if he’s still on the board.
http://thehockeywriters.com/emptying-the-combine-notebook/

Wait for the 5th round?
No, no, no, no.
No.
One of the 3rd Round picks.
Seriously.

godot10

Chachi:
square_wheels,

Alberta subsidized a billionaire’s new arena? Huh? You mean Edmontonians subsidized the new arena right? Albertan’s won’t be subsidizing a new arena for the NHL until Calgary gets their new arena which will be grade A bullshit, but will be par for the course in this Province.

There is close to $2 billion dollars going into the ground in the arena district, and near the arena district. As long as the Alberta economy really doesn’t completely tank for a generation, the bet Edmonton City council made should pay off. The arena district appears to have jumpstarted a positive feedback development loop which should be “profitable” for the city.

Professor Q

Chachi:
square_wheels,

Alberta subsidized a billionaire’s new arena? Huh? You mean Edmontonians subsidized the new arena right? Albertan’s won’t be subsidizing a new arena for the NHL until Calgary gets their new arena which will be grade A bullshit, but will be par for the course in this Province.

I believe $25 million came from the entire province by other means, and $279 million from Edmonton (CRL)?

Chachi

square_wheels,

square_wheels:
John Chambers,

Who exactly is this QC owners group ?

Since Alberta subsidized a billionaires new arena I guess we can’t throw too many stones at the transfer payments that will be used to pay that 700M fee ?

Alberta subsidized a billionaire’s new arena? Huh? You mean Edmontonians subsidized the new arena right? Albertan’s won’t be subsidizing a new arena for the NHL until Calgary gets their new arena which will be grade A bullshit, but will be par for the course in this Province.

Woodguy

pocession charge: Yes, they would literally be excited for one minute or less.My point was that $15M is not enough to motivate most of the owners, who are worth billions.

We’ll have to disagree there.

N64

pocession charge: Yes, they would literally be excited for one minute or less.My point was that $15M is not enough to motivate most of the owners, who are worth billions.

My point was simply that expansion represents more fingers dividing future revenue streams so the owners want as much in expansion fees as they can get. Relocation they just need the new site to be better than the old.

Ray

Woodguy: You’re missing the point a bit here.

Most NHL owners are self made people, or the first son/daughter of them.

They look at a free $15MM like a lot of us would look at $15K.

“Its $15MM more than I had this morning, wooot!!”

In fairness some of us might look at a free $15.00 the same way 🙂

Material Elvis

Woodguy: You’re missing the point a bit here.

Most NHL owners are self made people, or the first son/daughter of them.

They look at a free $15MM like a lot of us would look at $15K.

“Its $15MM more than I had this morning, wooot!!”

Yes, they would literally be excited for one minute or less. My point was that $15M is not enough to motivate most of the owners, who are worth billions.

stush18

Woodguy:
In case someone isn’t up to date on the CAR situation:

http://www.si.com/nhl/2016/06/01/carolina-hurricanes-owner-peter-karmanos-family-lawsuit

Karmanos’s kids’ trusts loaned him the money to keep the Hurricanes going and he’s defaulted on the loan and now the sons (their trusts actually) are suing him.

I don’t think that The Carolino Hurricanes borrowed that money, but Peter Sr did, but its still not a good scene.

At all.

I was reading about this, and they could be a relocation target to Quebec because of this apparently.

Woodguy

The only time you see family sue family when there isn’t much contention is when someone is gathering up shitty debt to release to the bankruptcy gords.

The Hurricanes will probably be awarded to the trusts who will then liquidate it to make good on the loan.

That’s my guess.

Peter owns the rink too, but I think its too far down the road for that to matter as much as it once did.

I wonder if Eric Tulsky speaks French?

Woodguy

In case someone isn’t up to date on the CAR situation:

http://www.si.com/nhl/2016/06/01/carolina-hurricanes-owner-peter-karmanos-family-lawsuit

Karmanos’s kids’ trusts loaned him the money to keep the Hurricanes going and he’s defaulted on the loan and now the sons (their trusts actually) are suing him.

I don’t think that The Carolino Hurricanes borrowed that money, but Peter Sr did, but its still not a good scene.

At all.

Material Elvis

John Chambers: Pierre Peladeau and the Quebecor group. They own Videotron which is like Shaw, as well as the arena complex itself.

They have pockets billions deep.

Brian Mulroney, the chairman of the board for Quebecor said the exchange rate was a big factor that would likely delay expansion for them. Although he did follow that up with (paraphrasing): ‘If we are awarded an expansion team, we will find the money’.

Woodguy

John Chambers: Pierre Peladeau and the Quebecor group. They own Videotron which is like Shaw, as well as the arena complex itself.

They have pockets billions deep.

Doesn’t mean that ~C$650MM makes sense.

CAR is in real trouble and I bet Gary has told QUE to hold on, much like he told WPG, then BAM! NHL team.

Gary loves his pressure release valves and QUE is a great one for him.

Woodguy

pocession charge: I don’t think that’s motivation for a lot of the owners.After legal fees, etc., that number is likely closer to $450M.About $15M per team, which is a pittance for most of the owners.

You’re missing the point a bit here.

Most NHL owners are self made people, or the first son/daughter of them.

They look at a free $15MM like a lot of us would look at $15K.

“Its $15MM more than I had this morning, wooot!!”

PunjabiOil

What about David Musil? What about David Musil?

This sort of line always makes me chuckle.

Well done.

John Chambers

square_wheels:
John Chambers,

Who exactly is this QC owners group ?

Since Alberta subsidized a billionaires new arena I guess we can’t throw too many stones at the transfer payments that will be used to pay that 700M fee ?

Pierre Peladeau and the Quebecor group. They own Videotron which is like Shaw, as well as the arena complex itself.

They have pockets billions deep.

square_wheels

John Chambers,

Who exactly is this QC owners group ?

Since Alberta subsidized a billionaires new arena I guess we can’t throw too many stones at the transfer payments that will be used to pay that 700M fee ?

stush18

Lowetide: I think the Oilers value Nurse more, thus his position on the depth chart. Based on their numbers this season, not at all sure who is the better player.

I’m not exactly sure I agree with that, seeing as Reinhart was the guy chia traded for. We can call nurse and Reinhart 4a and 4b. ?

My issue is when i try to present Reinhart in this light, using stats, people state nurses “toughness, aggressiveness, and hitting”. Watch the game nerd.

But when I present grybas facts along with his ability to play physical as a reason to move on from faynes contract, I’m told his stats are so much better, and that being physical and a good shot blocker means he’s just a player who can’t move the puck and isn’t helping the cause.

It can’t be both.

digger50

Is Osterle just a younger version of Sami Vatanen?

digger50

I

square_wheels

Water Fire,

Couldn’t agree more, was always impressed with his game. If he can be our depth 7/8 guy and we don’t employ Gritastical D who have one breakout play – off the glass/return procession for free types – Progress !

stush18

Lowetide: Yes. I have Reinhart outside because of the bonus issue, therefore below Oesterle. reinharts bonus, along with McDavid, Leon and Nurse bonuses, would all be on the cap at the beginning of the year. Edmonton can recall him at some point, once the bonus money has burned off. But, that does count (as I understand it) and has to be accounted for on some level.

I also believe that GR falls under the Nurse/Fayne umbrella that has more value on defense than offense (as opposed to a two-way or offensive defender). I dont think he makes the team, therefore he would be below Oesterle.

IF Edmonton trades Nurse? Different story.

Shouldn’t nurse be below Reinhart then? Or at least equal? Based off their respective seasons?

Reinhart had better results (marginally) against weaker comp with weaker partners. Nurse had slightly worse results against harder comp and better partners.

I hope you know I don’t at all believe you have a vendetta against Reinhart. You may have disliked the trade but the player himself outplayed our previous best defensive prospect. I don’t think we can really deny that

Material Elvis

Магия 10: 5 million Benjamins makes them real positive about expansion.

I don’t think that’s motivation for a lot of the owners. After legal fees, etc., that number is likely closer to $450M. About $15M per team, which is a pittance for most of the owners.

stush18

LT are you ranking oesterle ahead of Reinhart?

That’s what I’m seeing with your list, which seems contrary as nurses year was much more mixed. Unless you are assuming they keep him in the AHL because of the bonus issue, but then oesterle would be 6th call up no?

Isn’t the bonus issue a worry only if he reaches the markers set into his contract? I’m sure the oilers brass have a pretty good idea of what his ability of hitting the bonuses actually are.

Water Fire

Oesterle has some real effective ability. I was really impressed with his puck moving out of the D zone.

I don’t care much about a players size if he or she has game. With Oesterle again I saw brains but battle losses because of a lack of NHL or pro league strength.

Nuge is getting quite muscular. All top players hit the weights pretty much at least in their post first year summer when they realize all of the players are good and even with great ability it’s not enough at the top of the sport

So to me Oesterle, if he is serious about an NHL career needs to bulk up and make sure he can handle the boards and can slap shot at an NJL level. His brains and boots are there and that’s the hard part

N64

godot10: Quebec cannot afford a $500 million dollar US expansion fee with a 70-something cent loonie.As long as that is the case, Quebec is a relocate destination only.

S.O.P. Only 2 teams have come to Canada from normal expansion. 3 came in from the WHA. 2 are original 6. Relocation is currently at par with Winnipeg full circle and Calgary added and Quebec subtracted. NHL owners are interested in Canadian markets to bail out troubled teams (and for TV contracts) not as the single shot sources of new Benjys to split up. Relocation is easier to stomach as it’s doesn’t cut the pie into more pieces going forward.

John Chambers

Магия 10: 5 million Benjamins makes them real positive about expansion.

That’s the thing – 500 million USD, or 700 mil Canadian as Godot has passive aggressively put it, is a big chunk of change just to ice a team that will likely be out of the playoffs for a half decade or longer.

godot10

John Chambers:
Lowetide,

I’m sorry LT, I find the expansion draft far too fascinating.

That the club may actually be set up to succeed rather than having to build from absolute rubble like the Columbus Blue Jackets is interesting. Folks in Quebec would like prefer a relocation to an expansion club, however with this favourable set of rules it’s not so definitive.

Quebec cannot afford a $500 million dollar US expansion fee with a 70-something cent loonie. As long as that is the case, Quebec is a relocate destination only.

godot10

John Chambers:
If I interpret correctly it means the Oilers may be able to bury Reinhart in the minors half a season and not expose him. The Oilers do have to expose a defenseman though and that man should be or will be Mark Fayne.

You are interpreting incorrectly. The protection list are 7-3-1 or 8-1 or with two years or less professional experience. Otherwise you are exposed. But each team much expose some players which meet a minimal threshold…so they can’t trade everyone away and leave only junk. So one has to have one D exposed who played 40 games and 70 games over two years, and that will be Fayne. But that does NOT mean that Reinhart is not exposed also, unless one explicitly protects him under the 7-3-1 or 8-1 formulas.

N64

John Chambers:
Lowetide,

I’m sorry LT, I find the expansion draft far too fascinating.

That the club may actually be set up to succeed rather than having to build from absolute rubble like the Columbus Blue Jackets is interesting. Folks in Quebec would like prefer a relocation to an expansion club, however with this favourable set of rules it’s not so definitive.

5 million Benjamins makes them real positive about expansion.

John Chambers

Lowetide,

I’m sorry LT, I find the expansion draft far too fascinating.

That the club may actually be set up to succeed rather than having to build from absolute rubble like the Columbus Blue Jackets is interesting. Folks in Quebec would like prefer a relocation to an expansion club, however with this favourable set of rules it’s not so definitive.

N64

Lowetide: Wait until we get to the final set of rules!

On June 19th, 2017.

(Although in a salary cap CBA era almost everything about player movement seems to involve the PA)

N64

John Chambers:
If I interpret correctly it means the Oilers may be able to bury Reinhart in the minors half a season and not expose him. The Oilers do have to expose a defenseman though and that man should be or will be Mark Fayne.

The must be exposed rules would be in addition to the 8 skater vs 7F/3D protection rule.

John Chambers

If I interpret correctly it means the Oilers may be able to bury Reinhart in the minors half a season and not expose him. The Oilers do have to expose a defenseman though and that man should be or will be Mark Fayne.

N64

John Chambers:
Магия 10,

Fascinating. Thanks for sharing.

Lots to interpret, but a few things as it pertains to the new club:
– it’s a good rule that they’ll draft no worse than 6th over the first four seasons. Rather than tanking the club can actually go for it while having a guarantee to add too young talent
– there’s a rule for preventing the team from being a dumping ground for bad contracts that will ultimately be bought out. Regardless GMs will invent a loophole.
– all teams must offer up a defenseman and two forwards who played at least 40 games the previous season or 70 over the previous 2 and who are under contract for the following season
– having 25% of a teams payroll exposed has been nixed. This is a worthy omission.

not confirmed. dreger doubts teams outside the exec commitee would be accurate sources . if the source is real and informed you almost wonder if the leak is from the pa side.