DRAFT POST NO. 3: YOU CAN’T ALWAYS GET WHAT YOU WANT

by Lowetide

How do you offload a former No. 1 overall pick who has floundered as a hockey player and still get value? Turns out, it is really damned difficult.

  • Patrik Stefan was traded with Jaroslav Modry to Dallas for Niko Kapanen and the pick that became Will O’Neill. Stefan played 41 more games, Modry 165, Kapanen 158 and O’Neill has yet to play in an NHL game.
  • Alexandre Daigle (315 more NHL games after the deal) was dealt for Pat Falloon (163), Vaclav Prospal (1,049) and Chris Bala (6). Ottawa made out well, trading with the Flyers—a team that often deals for these types of players.

A rumor flying around has Travis Sanheim from the Flyers in play, it is an Eklund rumor and of course people have opinions about him. That said, I do think that the Philadelphia trade above offers some guidance for us as we try to estimate a deal for Nail Yakupov. Daigle was dealt to the Flyers for another high pick who struggled, plus something (that turned into something else).

yakupovcommons

Yakupov’s resume is not a fun read. Once you get past the black ink (No. 1 overall) there are rows and rows of pedestrian measures and he looks for all the world like a guy who will be in the KHL next summer. He has not progressed and his strengths remain dormant (mostly) because the Oilers mishandled him. What can PC get for Yak? If we go back to 2010, and search for ‘high picks who are struggling’ or ‘players who may be buried by exceptional depth’, we get:

  • LHD Derek Forbort, LAK. Chosen No. 15 overall in 2010, he has played 14 NHL games and his path to an NHL job is not easily seen.
  • LW Austin Watson, Nashville Predators. Taken No. 18 overall in 2010, he has a nice range of skills and I think he might have a future in a checking role. Has played in 63 games, 57 of them in the last season.
  • LHD Jamie Oleksiak, Dallas Stars. Chosen No. 14 overall in 2011, he has played in 78 NHL games. I think he might be an NHL player, but he keeps getting passed by better ones in the Stars system.
  • RW Joel Armia, Winnipeg Jets. Taken No. 16 overall in 2011. He is a big winger, has played in 44 NHL games and has been traded.
  • RHC Mark McNeill, Chicago Blackhawks. Selected No. 18 overall, he is a two-way center. A little shy offensively, he has played in 1 NHL game.
  • LHD Slater Koekkoek, Tampa Bay Lightning. A truly unique name, and he could have a career. Koekkoek has not progressed like a No. 10 overall selection, but 2012 was a year that was not strong on talent.
  • LHD Samuel Morin, Philadelphia Flyers. Chosen No. 11 in 2013, he has progressed well enough but is on a deep prospect list. Had a solid AHL debut.
  • LHD Josh Morrissey, Winnipeg Jets. No. 13 selection in 2013, Jets rarely trade their draft picks before or after. Still, intriguing name.
  • RHD Ryan Pulock, New York Islanders. He is just emerging now and looks as though he will have a career. No. 15 overall pick in 2013, you could argue he is slightly blocked but this is a valuable young player.
  • LW Michael Dal Colle, New York Islanders. Ran in place a little in his final junior year, but a bona fide prospect. No. 5 overall in 2014.
  • LHD Travis Sanheim, Philadelphia Flyers. A fine young defender, surprised to hear his name mentioned—although he does qualify under the ‘man, we have a lot of defensemen’ category. No. 17 in 2014.
  • RHD Anthony DeAngelo, Tampa Bay Lightning. No. 19 in 2014, he is a nice fit for Edmonton’s puck moving needs. Splendid rookie season in the AHL.
  • LW Nikita Scherbak, Montreal Canadiens. No. 26 in 2014, he was not great in his AHL debut (23 points in 48 games—Marco Roy had the same production). Big winger.
  • Josh Ho-Sang, New York Islanders. No. 28 overall in 2014, he had another strong year in the OHL and is about to turn pro. He was dominant in midget hockey along with Connor McDavid, so I included him on the list.

I think we would be wise to assume a somewhat fuzzy resume is coming back, and—as the previous No. 1 deals above show—a package that obscures actual value of said former No. 1. Something like Sanheim and a pick for Yakupov and a pick. Seems about right.

WHERE HAVE ALL THE BLUE MEN GONE?

Matt Dolloff from CBS Boston gathered up all of the news on defensemen over the last while—Alex Goligoski traded to Arizona (fabulous move by Coyotes), Tyson Barrie off the market and Jacob Trouba apparently staying put. He also ties the Oilers to Kevin Shattenkirk, and I have read this a few times. I am putting Shattenkirk on this list, despite the fact we all believe it is a distant bell.

  1. LD Hampus Lindholm, Anaheim Ducks. Perfect fit, if available.
  2. Travis Hamonic, NY Islanders. Perfect fit, if available.
  3. Kevin Shattenkirk, St. Louis Blues. He solves the issue, would cost the moon and has one year left. Problematic solution.
  4. Jason Demers, Dallas Stars. Wilford Brimley: The right thing to do.
  5. Tyson Barrie, Colorado Avalanche. Nuge?
  6. LD Alex Goligoski, Dallas Stars. He would be an outstanding option.
  7. Radko Gudas, Philadelphia Flyers. Strong, effective defender.
  8. Justin Faulk, Carolina Hurricanes. Would be higher, question availability.
  9. Sami Vatanen, Anaheim Ducks. Solid offense, not completely proven.
  10. Jacob Trouba, Winnipeg Jets. Strange year for a talented young player.
  11. David Savard, Columbus Blue Jackets. Range of skills.
  12. LD Keith Yandle, NY Rangers. Offensive defenseman.
  13. Michael Stone, Arizona Coyotes. Major knee surgery.
  14. LD Brian Campbell, Florida Panthers. He is effective.
  15. Damon Severson, New Jersey Devils. A nice underlying option.
  16. Mark Pysyk, Buffalo Sabres. The numbers imply there is a player here.
  17. Ryan Pulock, New York Islanders. Big shot from the point has high value. Very young.
  18. Ryan Murphy, Carolina Hurricanes. Some chaos, but good speed and puck-moving ability.
  19. Brandon Montour, Anaheim Ducks. This could be a special player.
  20. Cody Franson, Buffalo Sabres. That hammer from the point would come in handy and he fits a real need.
  21. Jordan Schmaultz, St. Louis Blues. Puck-moving prospect.
  22. Anthony DeAngelo, Tampa Bay Lightning. Another player with a puck-moving element to his game.
  23. Colin Miller, Boston Bruins. With the other Miller signing, maybe he is available.
  24. LD David Schlemko, New Jersey Devils. Depth D, has some nice things.
  25. Eric Gryba, Edmonton Oilers. I think management likes him.
  26. Ville Pokka, Chicago Blackhawks. Young defender in the Chicago system.
  27. Frank Corrado, Toronto Maple Leafs. Very little evidence but he showed up in some good places.
  28. Ryan Sproul, Detroit Red Wings. Puck-moving defender in the AHL.
  29. Dennis Wideman, Calgary Flames. A year removed from a fantastic offensive season.
  30. RD Dan Boyle, New York Rangers. Retiring, but he is the player they are looking for—early, not late in his career.

A cautionary note: Some of the names crossed off could easily appear again. Travis Hamonic may well be in play despite the Garth Snow verbal. We wait. And worry a little, but I am pleased to see that  (it appears) Peter Chiarelli is unwilling to trade terrific value for need and take less than 100 cents on the dollar.

SAIL ON DOWN THE LINE

https://twitter.com/NHLFREEAGENTS/status/743749374409211905

I enjoyed watching him, he was kind of like a utility outfielder. He didn’t have enough bat for the NHL, but was splendid in the AHL and I expect he will have success in the KHL. Wish him well, the man can skate like the wind.

CURRENT 50-MAN LIST (38)

  1. G Cam Talbot. He will play 50 games next year. Who plays the other 30?
  2. G Laurent Brossoit. Projects as NHL backup/AHL starter.
  3. G Nick Ellis: Newly signed college free agent.
  4. G Eetu Laurikainen, AHL backup, he is signed for next year.
  5. D Oscar Klefbom. Splendid young player. Watch out for falling anvils.
  6. D Andrej Sekera, top 4D, important part of the team.
  7. D Brandon Davidson, this generation’s Pisani. Major solution, low price.
  8. D Mark Fayne, Jim Matheson mentioned buy out. I don’t see it.
  9. D Darnell Nurse, bet third pair with Davidson for 2016-17.
  10. D Griffin Reinhart, he will push for NHL time again this year.
  11. D Andrew Ference, LTIR looks very likely.
  12. D Dillon Simpson, I think we may see him a little in Edmonton this year.
  13. D Joey Laleggia, scored pretty well as an AHL rookie.
  14. D Ben Betker, big man was solid at ECHL level.
  15. D Caleb Jones, WHL D. Newly signed, definite slide rule.
  16. C Connor McDavid, the hockey world remains jealous. Who can blame them?
  17. C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, am encouraged he may stay.
  18. C Leon Draisaitl, emerging NHL talent.
  19. C Mark Letestu, checking NHL C.
  20. C Anton Lander, may catch on as utility forward in 2016-17.
  21. C Jujhar Khaira, he is likely to push some more.
  22. C Bogdan Yakimov, big body, plenty of skill, wonder about the speed.
  23. C Kyle Platzer, may be the next Kyle Brodziak.
  24. L Taylor Hall, shine on you crazy diamond.
  25. L Benoit Pouliot, underrated by many. Trade rumors.
  26. L Patrick Maroon, an outstanding value contract.
  27. L Lauri Korpikoski, is he on the way out? No buyout in sight.
  28. L Matt Hendricks, checking NHL W.
  29. L Drake Caggiula. High profile signing, likely to see some NHL time.
  30. L Jere Sallinen, Newly signed, looks like tweener offense.
  31. L Mitch Moroz, AHL winger/enforcer, improved year over year.
  32. L Braden Christoffer, rugged winger did not have a good season.
  33. R Jordan Eberle, scoring winger, found chem with McDavid.
  34. R Nail Yakupov, I think he will be traded any day.
  35. R Zack Kassian, will play bottom 6F, Chiarelli-style rugged.
  36. R Anton Slepyshev, this will be an important year for him.
  37. R Patrick Russell, power forward potential. Interesting new signing.
  38. R Greg Chase, minor league winger.

WAITING

  1. R Iiro Pakarinen, he should get signed in the next while. RFA
  2. D Jordan Oesterle, I think he has passed most of the picks. RFA.
  3. D Adam Clendening. Foot speed will cost him. RFA.
  4. D David Musil, his skills are duplicated multiple times. RFA.
  5. L Luke Gazdic. He is in tough at this points. RFA
  6. R Adam Cracknell, he brings some toughness and reliability. UFA.
  7. R Rob Klinkhammer. Off to Russia. UFA.
  8. D Adam Pardy. He played well, doubt there is room. UFA.
  9. D Eric Gryba, UFA. A chance he signs. UFA.
  10. D Nikita Nikitin, UFA. Ufa alright.
  11. D Brad Hunt. Skills are duplicated elsewhere. UFA.
  12. L Josh Winquist. Best offensive prospect in the AHL currently—but does not have an NHL deal.
  13. R Josh Currie At 23, he forced his way into the lineup and played very well. Can also play center.
  14. C Marco Roy. Began slowly, but fought his way up the depth chart and emerged as a solid option.
  15. R Tyler Pitlick. Young veteran is RFA again. If he could only stay healthy.
  16. G Niklas Lundstrom. Signed with Bjorkloven for next year.
  17. L Kale Kessy. Rugged winger, skills duplicated on roster. RFA.
  18. R Andrew Miller. He may have traded himself. No chance he returns imo. UFA.
  19. L Ryan Hamilton. May receive another deal from the Oilers.
  20. G Keven Bouchard. 2014 pick needs to be signed.
  21. L Daniil Zharkov. Own his rights.

OILERS CURRENT ROSTER

oilers current roster and cap

  • I would not be surprised to see a trade in the next 24 hours, suspect it would be Nail Yakupov.
  • I believe many of these public displays (Barrie, Hamonic) are issue framing and attempted counter treys. A giant game of chicken is taking place, suspect Edmonton is in there somewhere.
  • Peter Chiarelli has not traded Hall or Nuge, and that is a good thing.
  • Jason Demers is the very obvious free agent, but many of the teams who want to improve defense are making moves—perhaps making them less likely to push for Demers.
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Jethro Tull

Gulutzen to the Flames.

M.A. Fluery possibly to the Flames.

Detroit looking to clear roster and cap space for a run at Stamkos.

Things are heating up!

Rondo

I always worry about teams that need D and trade D’d away. Yes I realize the cap. ex Demers

slopitch

Over under on trades by Chai between now and the 4th overall selection? I will say 1.5.

The 6 million dollar question is who? More at 11.

I have a hard time seeing why Dallas doesnt want to sign Demers. It must simply be that he wants to get paid.

zatch

Jethro Tull,

While Fleury to the Flames for 2 2nd’s seems to make good sense for all involved, I have heard Fleury’s NTC has all Canadian teams on it.

Younger Oil

I may be mistaken, but didn’t Chia say at some point that he wouldn’t trade Yak if he wasn’t getting value back?

Now, I guess it’s debatable if he considers Sanheim value, I guess we will see.

I loved him as a possible 2nd or 3rd round pick in his draft year, was surprised he was picked so early.

Ca$h-McMoney!

zatch,

Yeah it’s fascinating that one. If the Pens don’t move Fleury they will have to protect him at the expansion draft, meaning they will for sure lose Murray.

If I’m the pens I take the best deal offered regardless of how bad it is. I’d rather bet on Murray at this point, and if he fails, they can always get reasonable quality veteran goaltending on the open market. Fleury is no spring chicken and while he has runs of exceptional play (see early this year) he’s also got some warts.

Rosco

No way the Oilers could get Gudas for Yakupov (+) right? Right?

Edit: Yakupov would do real well on Couturier’s wing… *sigh*

Jethro Tull

zatch:
Jethro Tull,

While Fleury to the Flames for 2 2nd’s seems to make good sense for all involved, I have heard Fleury’s NTC has all Canadian teams on it.

Even Les Habs?

Магия 10

Lowetide:
June 16, 2016 at 2:29 pm
Магия 10: LT, what would you pay for Demer’s negotiating rights?
At this point, I doubt Dallas moves him. Unlikely they will sacrifice both veterans in one summer.

LT, Dallas media say Dallas is likely to move a 2nd veteran D. Would you give up a 4th round pick for Demer’s negotiating rights?

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-stars/stars/2016/06/16/stars-beginning-turn-roster-hopes-taking-advantage-big-strong-kids

zatch

Jethro Tull,

I was hearing ALL teams. I would imagine if Canadian teams are blanket banned, Les Habs would be highest on his list. The reasons players avoid Canada are usually the cold, the fishbowl, and taxes, and possibly things to do/proximity to fun places. Montreal is the first 3 in spades.

I wonder if the Pens try to do a trade flip? Send Fleury somewhere he wants for a goalie, send one of Murray or that goalie to Calgary.

Jethro Tull

Wife’s reaction to possibility of Las Vegas NHL team being called the Black Nights:

Huh! Why don’t they just call them the Las Vegas Hockey McHockey-faces.

(ref: Boaty McBoatface being voted by the British public as being the name of a new multi-million dollar research vessel.)

EDIT: Knights – as in Ker-nig-ets. Not Nights.

Kiltymcbagpipes

I see you have 3 Islanders on your ‘high picks who are struggling’ list. I think you can add Strome to that list and DeHaan (2009) both who could also be available. That’s 5 guys the Isles could move surely we can find a deal there.

Personally, I would still love to get Yak’s replacement now in Pulkkinen for a mid to late rd pick (no datsyuk) then a Yakupov for Watson trade would be nice especially if we move Nuge (as u mentioned, Watson has a variety of skills could be perfect #3 checking centre). Chia would always be one step ahead if he chose that path and dealing from strength not weakness.

Магия 10

Lowetide: Since the market has been set, I would hope for a fifth, but would go conditional fourth (based on him signing) that flags to a fifth if there is no luck.

Makes sense, Halak got an unconditional 4th, but yeah that’s the record (until Stamkos?)

wheatnoil

Магия 10: LT, Dallas media say Dallas is likely to move a 2nd veteran D. Would you give up a 4th round pick for Demer’s negotiating rights?

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-stars/stars/2016/06/16/stars-beginning-turn-roster-hopes-taking-advantage-big-strong-kids

Yes. But ideally today to give maximum negotiating time.

Jethro Tull

zatch:
Jethro Tull,

I was hearing ALL teams. I would imagine if Canadian teams are blanket banned, Les Habs would be highest on his list. The reasons players avoid Canada are usually the cold, the fishbowl, and taxes, and possibly things to do/proximity to fun places. Montreal is the first 3 in spades.

I wonder if the Pens try to do a trade flip? Send Fleury somewhere he wants for a goalie, send one of Murray or that goalie to Calgary.

I don’t think Murray is going anywhere.

The number 1 draw for players is success followed by playing for your home team. (Players are fans too.)

Still MTL is unrealistic with Price there.

I think he’d welcome Cow-town. Pure conjecture though. I don’t have your sources.

Water Fire

slopitch:
Over under on trades by Chai between now and the 4th overall selection? I will say 1.5.

The 6 million dollar question is who? More at 11.

I have a hard time seeing why Dallas doesnt want to sign Demers. It must simply be that he wants to get paid.

I’ll bet it’s size. Whenever teams don’t go as deep as they think they should they seem to react by ditching skill to get bigger. I don’t know for sure but likely the same reason the Sharks moved him – LA forwards too big!

Centre of attention

According to Garth Snow the expansion rules haven’t been determined nor relayed to the teams yet.

Lowetide’s right, we have no idea how this thing is going to shake out. Silly to put major planning into it at this point.

Chris Nichols
‏@NicholsOnHockey
Snow on expansion draft: “The rules have yet to be determined and haven’t been relayed to the managers.” 1/2 #Isles SiriusXMNHL

Jaxon

I’m still hoping they can sign Demers for #1RD, and Zach Redmond for #3RD, with Fayne playing #2RD. I also think it might be a good idea to sign a vet like David Schlemko for #3LD. Then they can develop their youngsters in the AHL and it won’t be a big deal to sit Schlemko or Redmond in the press box to give the youngsters some NHL time.

If they can accomplish that, then my list of targets for trades would be:

One or two of the following Current NHLers (Pesce, Miller, Severson and Pysyk all did some AHL time last season):
1. Brett Pesce – CAR – came out of nowhere to have an amazing season for a 20 yr old.
2. RFA Colin Miller – BOS – not sure Chiarelli can do any deals with BOS because history, so this may be a non-starter.
3. Damon Severson – NJD – 3rd only because I don’t really believe he is available. I think he is their #2RD next season.
4. Mark Pysyk – BUF – a bit small and getting a bit on the old side for not making an impact yet, but he has produced well in the right situations and is stuck behind 3 decent RDs in BUF.
*I had Alex Petrovic (FLA) on my list until they traded Gudbranson. Petrovic just became their #2RD so I seriously doubt he is in play. My guess is that only Pesce and Pysyk are even remotely available.

Plus two to four of the following Close-to-Ready Prospects, especially from #1 to 4 in the East:

Eastern Options (often trades to other conference are a bit easier to make happen as they know they won’t have to face the player they trade away in future as much):
1. Madison Bowey – WSH – projects as top pair RD with a complete game, didn’t play a lot last season but he is still fairly young) – this type of player may be the key to having a true #1RD in the near future. Can Yakupov/Hendricks + get it done? They’re in win-now mode and Bowey only played 15.6 minutes per night last season.
2. RFA Morgan Ellis – MTL – big offensive D who plays about 23 minutes per game in AHL) – I really like him as an option. RFA, so he may be ‘more’ available for cheap.
3. RFA Reece Scarlett – NJD – Edmonton born 22 yr old with good offense played 21.5 minutes per night last season. RFA, so he may be ‘more’ available for cheap.
4. RFA Michael Paliotta – CBJ – I feel it was an adjustment year for Paliotta after an amazing final NCAA season where he scored at a 30 pt NHLE pace. Good skater known as shutdown type with a new offensive side played just 16.6 minutes per night. RFA, so he may be ‘more’ available for cheap.

Western Options (solid players but possibly not as available to Edmonton):
5. Brandon Montour – ANA – great numbers at 21.2 minutes per night.
6. Stephen Johns – DAL – 6’3″, 215 lbs, played 22.7 minutes per and was quite offensive.
7. Taylor Aronson – NSH – played 22.7 minutes per and produced.
8. Nikita Zadorov – COL – solid prospect who may be able to challenge or replace Barrie someday played 22.6 minutes, doubt he is available as they traded for him fairly recently.
9. Ville Pokka – CHI – as Lowetide mentioned, he is a value contract on a team that desperately needs value contracts so it is very doubtful he is available, played 23.4 minutes/GP.

Others:
10. Jordan Schmaltz – STL – young D played about 21.6 minutes and was a bit shy on offense.
11. Ryan Pulock – NYI – played 19.7 minutes and did just okay for point production. I think NYI are hoping for more.
12. Robbie Russo – DET – may have passed Ryan Sproul on DET depth chart. played 18.3 minutes per and produced a lot in those minutes, very offensive D.
13. RFA Frank Corrado – TOR – solid production during his 18.3 minutes of ice time. I think it’s psychologically easy for a GM to pull the trigger on a player he picked up on waivers and he’s an RFA so he may be very achievable.
14. RFA Ryan Sproul – DET – 6’3″, 205 lbs, neck and neck with fellow DET prospect Russo in ice time and points production.
15. Clark Seymour – PIT – 6’4″ 205lbs, produced at a decent clip in limited ice time of 16.4 minutes.
16. Brandon Carlo – BOS 6’5″, 200lbs, got a brief stint in the AHL at the end of the season, doubt the youngster is available and again, Chiarelli’s history may make a deal impossible.
17. RFA Scott Mayfield – NYI – big 6’4″, played 20.3 minutes is a bit shy offensively and not sure Chiarelli goes back to NYI pool after Reinhart, especially for a big guy who doesn’t get points.
18. RFA Dylan DeMelo – SJS – logged 22.5 minutes per last season but didn’t produce a lot of offense.

Caramel Batman

Fleury has to have negative value. He’s a mediocre goalie with a big contract. Why would anyone trade for him?

If Pittsburg gets out from that contract they’ve done very well.

If Calgary trades for him then Edmonton has done very well.

JimmyV1965

Not sure why Strome and Nichushkin are not on the Yak list. They seem like the Dallas and New York versions of Yak. I wouldn’t cross Barrie of the ltrade list either. Sakic saying he’s off the market stinks like a negotiating tactic to me. And what’s up with this narrative that Snow’s reputation takes a hit if he trades Hamonic? I truly don’t understand. The guy asked for a trade and set the wheels in motion. Now that he rescinded the request he’s all of a sudden off limits? Doesn’t make sense.

Centre of attention

Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer · 2m2 minutes ago

My “Guess” is that the Oilers do not have a lot of interest in Zach Bogosian at this time

At least Bob admits he’s just guessing.

judgedrude

Instead of trading a draft pick for the negotiating rights to Demers, is the rights to one of our RFAs (eg. Musil) maybe a better way to go?

Магия 10

Centre of attention: According to Garth Snow the expansion rules haven’t been determined nor relayed to the teams yet.
Lowetide’s right, we have no idea how this thing is going to shake out. Silly to put major planning into it at this point.

They are still expected before the draft. At which point trading will accelerate (even if they get tweaked in December)

Aitch

If there’s an Oilers trade today, I’m not expecting it to be seen as “good for the Oilers.” Rarely do good things get announced on Friday afternoons.

Chris

I have no idea what Nill is doing in Dallas. He’s letting both Gologoski and Demers go? Letting half your top 4 go seems like a really dubius strategy kind of like loading up on expensive and not very good goaltenders.

Магия 10

Arthur StapleVerified account ‏@StapeNewsday 2h2 hours ago
#Isles GM Garth Snow on @SiriusXMNHL just now on Okposo: “We wish him nothing but the best.” Think that tells you where that’s headed.

Bag of Pucks

“…his strengths remain dormant (mostly) because the Oilers mishandled him.”

Yakupov’s YoY Shooting %

2012-2013 – 21%
2013-2014 – 9%
2014-2015 – 7.3%
2015-2016 – 6.3%

Yes, the Oilers could’ve given Nail better support with a veteran C or more PP time (though he certainly did little to earn the latter), but his greatest alleged strength coming out of the draft was supposed to be his shot/accuracy. The velocity was impressive. The accuracy was a joke. He consistently lacked the puck sense to wait that extra split second to change his shooting angle and ya know, aim, to thus do what #1OVs are supposed to be naturally adept at, sniping the corners.

As soon as the puck hit Nail’s stick, it was off the stick, and only Gord and the wild winds knew where it was going.

I didn’t know how Nail having the yips AND zero puck sense is all on the Oil.

Imagine would it would be like to have sex with a spastic contortionist having a coughing fit? That’s what’s it like to be Yak’s linemate.

DRFNsuperstar

Yak and a pick for Gudas and a pick would be cool. But I prefer yak and Fayne for Zajac and Severson. Or Pouliot for Vatanen. But would Vatanen and Gudas be enough with Fayne still around?

Klefbom-Gudas
Sekera-Vatanen
Davidson-Fayne

mustang

I don’t understand what the hell the stars are doing. Who lets 2 of their top 3 dman walk without much of a whimper? There time is now. Benn and Seguin can’t be very happy about this.

Not to mention the goaltending is rather weak, so they want to go younger on D. Makes no sense to me.

Ca$h-McMoney!

Caramel Batman:
Fleury has to have negative value.He’s a mediocre goalie with a big contract.Why would anyone trade for him?

If Pittsburg gets out from that contract they’ve done very well.

If Calgary trades for him then Edmonton has done very well.

Fleury is pretty good. Has struggled in the playoffs, but if it weren’t for his performance prior to the coaching change they may not have made it. He’s still pretty good, though admitedly on the wrong side of 30 and not in the elite category.

There are teams that favour veteran goalies. Carolina, Vancouver, Calgary come to mind. Calgary needs one. Fleury for a pick, maybe with some dollars retained, might be a deal that gets done.

Calgary could do a whole lot worse for the next couple of years than have Fleury between the pipes.

jonrmcleod

SPAM ALERT

I had nothing better to do, so I made up some Blogger Awards and came up with nominees for each award.

Some of the regulars here are nominees.

The winners will be announced the morning of June 22 (same day as the NHL Awards).

The link to vote is in the post below. Please vote.

http://www.theoilersrig.com/2016/06/2016-oilers-rig-blogger-awards/

@StapeNewsday

#Isles GM Garth Snow on @SiriusXMNHL just now on Okposo: “We wish him nothing but the best.”

Jethro Tull

Kiltymcbagpipes:
‏ @DarrenDreger

Good info @NHL_AaronWard. Det will push to move the contract. Jurco, Pulkkinen…a 2nd as bait?Stamkos big target

I don’t know about anyone else but if Chia can get Pulkkinen AND a 2nd rd pick to take Datsyuk’s contract I say do it! A lot of good players in 2nd rd looks like plus Pulkkinen to replace Yak. It’s only 1 year left on his crappy contract. If Detroit wants Stamkos badly as reported they would pay that I would think if they have to.

I don’t think this is what good teams do.

Jethro Tull

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
@StapeNewsday

#Isles GM Garth Snow on @SiriusXMNHL just now on Okposo: “We wish the door won’t hit him in the ass on his way out”

LOLZ.

Bag of Pucks

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
@StapeNewsday

#Isles GM Garth Snow on @SiriusXMNHL just now on Okposo: “We wish him nothing but the best.”

`
Sign the man.

The criticism I’ve seen is his numbers are zoomed by Tavares, but we don’t need another ‘driver.’ We need complimentary players that will cycle, go to the hard areas, and hit. Okposo looks to my eye like an ideal western conference player. Seriously, his neck is a waist. Okposo was a late bloomer but he’s entering his prime now. Much prefer this player over Lucic.

If you’ve got one each of Maroon, Okposo and Drai on your top 3 lines, your cycle game is tremendously improved.

jm363561

Cam Talbot. He will play 50 games next year. Who plays the other 30?
=================
Don’t you mean “Who plays the other 60?”

(Gallows humour).

SumOil

I want to apologise to Woodguy regarding the wording of my post. I was not calling you out regarding nurse. only when I replied to you were the times I was talking to or about you

mustang

Chris,
Ha, you beat me to it

Pescador

Morning Lowetide, hope you are enjoying your week off. Great thread yesterday (morning edition). Couldn’t help but notice a trend, there are a few enegmatic characters that frequent these pages. They love to “engage” others & although they appear annoyed with each other, they do it because they love to argue. Granted sometimes it gets out of hand, but for the most part it’s quite enjoyable to this neutral observer. Please don’t ever stop fighting, sorry “aggressive debating”. Also, the timeouts are hilarious.
Player movement & signings around the league are heating up, will be nice to see the Oilers get in on the action. I’m guessing Chiarelli gives us something to talk about before the weekend is out. Hopefully it’s something we like, We wait.

Jethro Tull

mustang: I don’t understand what the hell the stars are doing. Who lets 2 of their top 3 dman walk without much of a whimper?

MacTavish’s Oilers?

mustang

Jethro Tull,

Haha, something like that.

Fog of Warts

Jethro Tull: Wife’s reaction to possibility of Las Vegas NHL team being called the Black Nights

I mentally nicknamed them the “Los Vegas Sand Huskies” the other day, but then I discovered that “Sand Huskies” have already gathered in beer leagues everywhere.

I also auditioned the “Loch Vagus Sandpipers”. The vagus nerve conveys gut instincts, many of which are useful, though it sometimes falls prey to the supernatural powers of slightly humid dice pairs (with a +3 hot lady huffing bonus). I imagined this as a very long and slender lake—the great Scottish irrigation ditch of the American mid-west—but I had trouble finding shoreline habitat at 2000 ft elevation where the great ditch could terminate into proper shorebird habitat.

Then the well went completely dry, and I fished up “Los Vegas Sands Stoners”. Well, ain’t that a speech impediment.

Perhaps if they shorten that to “Sandstoners” they could get big sponsorship from HP and open up a while-you-wait official jersey and printer cartridge boutique (official ink of the NHL) somewhere in the giant hotel mall. We might even get a compensatory pick out of this when they work up a second promotional tie-in with Coppertone.

Or they could be the “Los Vegas Sandstorm”. They’d be maybe three bad seasons away from being nicknamed the “Haboobs” and then it would be Roughriders / Rough Riders all over again.

“Canadian Habs or American Habs?” Actually, I kind of like that.

Deal me in.

Магия 10

Dreger: “I’ll tell you what – during the Stanley Cup Final, Taylor Hall’s name became more of a name of interest than the other two, for obvious reasons”.

GM’s needed the Kessel run to see that Hall would be a steal? or just the press?

Don’t see Hall going anywhere as per Dreger’s trade deadline queries to “not just Peter Chiarelli, but those above him”:

Q. ‘Is it conceivable that Taylor Hall could be a moveable piece, if not at the deadline, then perhaps at the summer.’

A. ‘Look. There’s one untouchable and his name is Connor McDavid. The next on that list is Taylor Hall being close to untouchable.’

OF17

Kiltymcbagpipes:
‏ @DarrenDreger

Good info @NHL_AaronWard. Det will push to move the contract. Jurco, Pulkkinen…a 2nd as bait?Stamkos big target

I don’t know about anyone else but if Chia can get Pulkkinen AND a 2nd rd pick to take Datsyuk’s contract I say do it! A lot of good players in 2nd rd looks like plus Pulkkinen to replace Yak. It’s only 1 year left on his crappy contract. If Detroit wants Stamkos badly as reported they would pay that I would think if they have to.

That would blow almost all of our available cap space, which we badly need for a Dman. Even Toronto doesn’t have space for Datsyuk if they plan to add anyone significant. I think Arizona is Detroit’s only way out of that contract, and this new GM in the desert probably knows that. Detroit is kind of hooped.

Also, why would Stamkos want to go to Detroit? In terms of young futures, they’re not near the top of the list, and the traditional appeal of playing with Datsyuk, Zetterberg, et al has dwindled significantly. Why are they getting such play as a Stamkos destination?

Bag of Pucks

Do a sign and trade with the Isles.

Put pen to paper in principle with Okposo and then the following:

Eberle, Fayne & the #4th Overall for a signed Okposo, Hamonic and the Isles’ #19 pick

You jump the FA market on Okposo and Snow gets an asset he normally wouldn’t (the #4 overall) for one player walking out the door and another on the verge.

Then you pray like hell that one of Chychrun, Juolevi or Sergachev falls to #19.

And, if you’re not a fan of prayer, you draft the player the Isles want at #4 and you don’t pull the trigger on the deal until you’re sure the player you want at #19 is still there.

Water Fire

OF17: Why are they getting such play as a Stamkos destination?

They want him desperately because they have screwed up and retired all of their great players instead of trading most of them to regenerate the team. They have no elite players at all anymore and none coming.

That loyalty comes at the cost of becoming a weak team. Especially now that they don’t get the choice of UFA’s they once did.

Water Fire

Bag of Pucks:
Do a sign and trade with the Isles.

Put pen to paper in principle with Okposoand then the following:

Eberle, Fayne & the #4th Overall for a signed Okposo, Hamonic and the Isles’ #19 pick

You jump the FA market on Okposo and Snow gets an asset he normally wouldn’t (the #4 overall) for one player walking out the door and another on the verge.

Then you pray like hell that one of Chychrun, Juolevi or Sergachev falls to #19.

And, if you’re not a fan of prayer, you draft the player the Isles want at #4 and you don’t pull the trigger on the deal until you’re sure the player you want at #19 is still there.

Bag why would you trade for a definite UFA? If McDavid isn’t enough of a draw forget about him, he’s after money and not into hockey as much.

Mustard Tiger

Just had a quick conversation with Fernando Pisani.

Didn’t realize it was him until after, though.

OF17

Water Fire: They want him desperately because they have screwed up and retired all of their great players instead of trading most of them to regenerate the team. They have no elite players at all anymore and none coming.

That loyalty comes at the cost of becoming a weak team. Especially now that they don’t get the choice of UFA’s they once did.

Oh yes, I definitely see the appeal from Detroit’s point of view, I just have no idea why Stamkos would choose them over others. I can think of a few teams that would be less appealing, like the Devils, but it’s not hard to make arguments for Toronto, Tampa, Edmonton, Buffalo, and others over Detroit.

Bag of Pucks

Water Fire: Bag why would you trade for a definite UFA? If McDavid isn’t enough of a draw forget about him, he’s after money and not into hockey as much.

A) So you avoid the bidding war and potentially get Okposo at a more cap friendly number & B) To create a package to land Hamonic at the same time WITHOUT having to give up one of Nurse or Kbom (assuming they don’t want Reinhart back).

More likely, Chia trades Eberle and a sweetener for Hamonic, signs Lucic, and drafts at #4. That could be better obviously as you’re not giving up the lottery pick, but I worry about the term to sign Lucic and his footspeed.

OF17

Bag of Pucks: A) So you avoid the bidding war and potentially get Okposo at a more cap friendly number & B) To create a package to land Hamonic at the same time WITHOUT having to give up one of Nurse or Kbom (assuming they don’t want Reinhart back).

More likely, Chia trades Eberle and a sweetener for Hamonic, signs Lucic, and drafts at #4. That could be better obviously as you’re not giving up the lottery pick, but I worry about the term to sign Lucic and his footspeed.

At this point, Okposo isn’t going to sign for less than what he’d get as a UFA. He probably has a different threshold for what he’d be willing to take from specific teams, but he’s not going to lower his rate 2 weeks before hitting the open market. What you gain from trading for a UFA is getting the first chance to pitch to him, but if Okposo is willing to sign and be traded here before even hearing Chiarelli’s pitch, why wouldn’t we just sign him as a UFA and keep all the assets?

I think we need to forget about Hamonic at this point. Snow would take a significant reputation hit among players if he traded Hamonic after all of the verbal that has come out in recent weeks. It would have to be such a good deal that the reputation hit was worth it, which IMO means Hall. Yes, it’s ridiculous, but it would need to be ridiculous for Snow to bite.

Caramel Batman

Bag of Pucks:
Do a sign and trade with the Isles.

Put pen to paper in principle with Okposoand then the following:

Eberle, Fayne & the #4th Overall for a signed Okposo, Hamonic and the Isles’ #19 pick

You jump the FA market on Okposo and Snow gets an asset he normally wouldn’t (the #4 overall) for one player walking out the door and another on the verge.

Then you pray like hell that one of Chychrun, Juolevi or Sergachev falls to #19.

And, if you’re not a fan of prayer, you draft the player the Isles want at #4 and you don’t pull the trigger on the deal until you’re sure the player you want at #19 is still there.

Good god that is horrible. Okposo is an UFA, that makes him worth a 5th round pick (i.e. nothing). So your trade is

Eberle, Fayne and the # 4 overall for Hamonic and the #19 overall.

Fayne is probably net neutral so you cancel him out.

There is no way the difference between Hamonic and Eberle is worth trading down from 4 to 19.

Yak for Sanheim? Yet another LHD? YAY

I don’t think Philly does it.
I don’t think it makes sense for the Oilers to do it unless Nurse and/or Reinhart are headed out in other deals.

Do you know something we don’t, LT? Because posting Eklund rumours here doesn’t seem like your style, and I know you put a disclaimer, but still.

Bag of Pucks

Caramel Batman: Good god that is horrible.Okposo is an UFA, that makes him worth a 5th round pick (i.e. nothing).So your trade is

Eberle, Fayne and the # 4 overall for Hamonic and the #19 overall.

Fayne is probably net neutral so you cancel him out.

There is no way the difference between Hamonic andEberle is worth trading down from 4 to 19.

It would appear you’re struggling with the ‘sign and trade’ concept.

Okposo is worth a 5th round pick IF he hits the open market.

If you can put pen to paper with him on a more cap friendly deal (a big IF as most players wait their whole career to cash in on this opportunity and finally decide their destination of choice), and pre-empt his entering free agency, then the player is worth the value of his new deal not the expiring one.

Okposo/Hamonic IN & Eberle/Fayne out makes the Oilers empirically better imo and what balances the scales (i.e. makes it more equitable for the Isles) is the pick swap.

Very much moot as I don’t think there’s any way in hell Chia trades the #4 OV.

Water Fire

I think there is a changing of the guard in the west now. The players and GM’s know it if we do.

Chicago – 2 mega contracts and several aging guys with term
LA – Kopitar and Doughty and aging players and a lack of skill. Built for a game not being played now
St Louis – Pietrangleo and Tarasenko, goal issues, aging players, like LA the game has changed
San Jose – the core is done nobody that great to step up, maybe Couture
Vanvouver – Benning will complete the destruction Gillis started
Calgary – overrated, the new coach might help. Gio is declining. No goalie.
Anaheim – Carlyle and old core
Dallas – Benn Klingberg and Seguin, thin up front with Spezza Sharp and Hemsky old. No goalie
CBJ – no #1 centre. Could pull it out of the fire
Colorado – they could be good with tweaks but are a budget team and Roy

Winnipeg – they could become a contender but again an internal budget
Arizona – potential and an internal budget
Minnesota – they have potential but 2 increasingly bad contracts at 7.5
Nashville – they are in good shape as long as Weber plays well

Over the next few years anything could happen but given how static the league is all but the last four teams are hard pressed to keep their level up.

Things are wide open for the Oilers who are set up really well to take the lead. Only Colorado approaches the Oilers forward group IMO, maybe the Jets. Be smart Chiarelli.

Water Fire

OF17: Oh yes, I definitely see the appeal from Detroit’s point of view, I just have no idea why Stamkos would choose them over others. I can think of a few teams that would be less appealing, like the Devils, but it’s not hard to make arguments for Toronto, Tampa, Edmonton, Buffalo, and others over Detroit.

Yes why not just stay in Tampa if he doesn’t go to a Canadian team, they are at the top of the eastern heap

Woodguy

Kiltymcbagpipes,

I think you can add Strome to that list and DeHaan (2009) both who could also be available. That’s 5 guys the Isles could move surely we can find a deal there.

Why do you think De Haan is struggling?

Woogie63

Korpi with some retained salary for Demers might be a good move for both teams.

godot10

mustang:
I don’t understand what the hell the stars are doing. Who lets 2 of their top 3 dman walk without much of a whimper? There time is now.Benn and Seguin can’t be very happy about this.

Not to mention the goaltending is rather weak, so they want to go younger on D. Makes no sense to me.

Ruff coached up a lot of young blueliners in Buffalo. He went to the Eastern Conference final with 1 NHL defensemen, and 5 AHL’ers in 2006, when the injuries hit. He has had two seasons with all the youngsters on the AHL blue. He is one of the best coaches of defensemen in the NHL.

Bascially, it is cap management. They believe in their young guys, and don’t want to block them.

Pouzar

godot10: He went to the Eastern Conference final with 1 NHL defensemen, and 5 AHL’ers in 2006, when the injuries hit.

So “HIRE Ruff” has been the answer this whole time? 🙂

raventalon40

Dang, Goligoski good rights acquisition by ARI.

I hope he makes it to free agency. If we sign Goligoski, I’d be okay with flipping either Nurse+ or Klefbom for Hamonic. Then sign Demers also. Doneski for the D-core.

Water Fire:
I think there is a changing of the guard in the west now. The players and GM’s know it if we do.

Chicago – 2 mega contracts and several aging guys with term
LA – Kopitar and Doughty and aging players and a lack of skill. Built for a game not being played now
St Louis – Pietrangleo and Tarasenko, goal issues, aging players, like LA the game has changed
San Jose – the core is done nobody that great to step up, maybe Couture
Vanvouver – Benning will complete the destruction Gillis started
Calgary – overrated, the new coach might help. Gio is declining. No goalie.
Anaheim – Carlyle and old core
Dallas – Benn Klingberg and Seguin, thin up front with Spezza Sharp and Hemsky old.No goalie
CBJ – no #1 centre. Could pull it out of the fire
Colorado – they could be good with tweaks but are a budget team and Roy

Winnipeg – they could become a contender but again an internal budget
Arizona – potential and an internal budget
Minnesota – they have potential but 2 increasingly bad contracts at 7.5
Nashville – they are in good shape as long as Weber plays well

Over the next few years anything could happen but given how static the league is all but the last four teams are hard pressed to keep their level up.

Things are wide open for the Oilers who are set up really well to take the lead. Only Colorado approaches the Oilers forward group IMO, maybe the Jets. Be smart Chiarelli.

Wow…so many things I have to question in there.

Chicago- can’t count out a team with Toews, Kane, Keith, Hjalmarsson, Panarin and Crawford. Not yet.

LA- that game is still being played. Just because Pittsburgh won with a different style doesn’t make it obsolete.

St. Louis- That’s a good team. I think they need a coaching change and a better option at C. But the pieces are there…what aging players? Schwartz, Lehtera, Tank, Stastny, Berglund, Pietro, Parayko, Allen, etc., are not aging. Losing Shattenkirk will hurt.

Vancouver- Agree they have lost their way.

Calgary– Overrated? They finished well outside the playoffs. Where do you have them rated? Goalie probably gets addressed fairly easily this summer. MAF, Bishop, etc., likely on the move.

Anaheim- Yeah, hiring Carlyle back was bizarre.

Dallas– they have a nice up and coming group of D prospects led by Honka. But losing both Demers and Goligoski will hurt. Agree the goaltending is a $10M hot mess but that team outscored the rest of the league by a mille. Can’t count them out so quickly.

CBJ- They need to sort out their NMCs and cap issues.

Colorado- They are a budget team? Do you have a link for that? It seems to me Roy didn’t want to pay Barrie because he thought he could get Trouba instead, but once the cost for Trouba was revealed to him, he went back to the plan to keep Barrie. Just because they don’t want to pay one player a reportedly huge asking price doesn’t make them a budget team.

Winnipeg- they COULD become a contender? They have the best group of young players in the entire NHL. Do you have evidence for said internal budget? They signed Buff to a big deal. They (correctly in my opinion) decided not to sign Ladd, an expensive, aging winger who didn’t seem to be super keen on staying in Winnipeg anymore. One of their owners is one of Canada’s richest men. It seems when the time comes to contend and spend they could easily spend.

Arizona- okay…

Minny- One day the Parise and Suter deals will be bad, yes. Not yet. They need a 1C above Granlund more than anything right now.

Nashville- they could also use a better 2nd line C to help Johansen. Their top 4 D is set.

Edit- forgot to address San Jose. “The core is done” would tell me a team that missed the playoffs. A team that went to the SCF looks anything but “done” to me.

Water Fire

raventalon40:
Dang, Goligoski good rights acquisition by ARI.

I hope he makes it to free agency. If we sign Goligoski, I’d be okay with flipping either Nurse+ or Klefbom for Hamonic. Then sign Demers also. Doneski for the D-core.

Remember Goligoski is 31 this summer. He’s about done for an Oiler timeline.

Bag of Pucks

OF17: At this point, Okposo isn’t going to sign for less than what he’d get as a UFA. He probably has a different threshold for what he’d be willing to take from specific teams, but he’s not going to lower his rate 2 weeks before hitting the open market. What you gain from trading for a UFA is getting the first chance to pitch to him, but if Okposo is willing to sign and be traded here before even hearing Chiarelli’s pitch, why wouldn’t we just sign him as a UFA and keep all the assets?

I think we need to forget about Hamonic at this point. Snow would take a significant reputation hit among players if he traded Hamonic after all of the verbal that has come out in recent weeks. It would have to be such a good deal that the reputation hit was worth it, which IMO means Hall. Yes, it’s ridiculous, but it would need to be ridiculous for Snow to bite.

You’re probably right on all fronts. With Okposo, there’s always the McDavid factor to consider. Possibly the standard 5th rounder for negotiating rights is the better gambit, but I’m blue skying that possibly a ‘package’ deal brings the Oilers more certainty (i.e. you land a Top 4 D prior to FA) without having to ship out one of the top D prospects previously stated as the requisite return for the Isles.

We, as fans, tend to look at this as stats and contracts and we don’t factor in the human side. Agents, wives, friends, they all factor in. Okposo and Hamonic could be buds that love the idea of playing together on an up and coming CA team? You never know.

This trade talk is absolutely worthless at the end of the day. It’s just fans killing time until Chia finally reveals his cards.

Caramel Batman

Bag of Pucks: It would appear you’re struggling with the ‘sign and trade’ concept.

Okposo is worth a 5th round pick IF he hits the open market.

If you can put pen to paper with him on a more cap friendly deal (a big IF as most players wait their whole career to cash in on this opportunity and finally decide their destination of choice), and pre-empt his entering free agency, then the player is worth the value of his new deal not the expiring one.

Okposo/Hamonic IN & Eberle/Fayne out makes the Oilers empirically better imo and what balances the scales (i.e. makes it more equitable for the Isles) is the pick swap.

Very much moot as I don’t think there’s any way in hell Chia trades the #4 OV.

This is typically confused.

First of all, there is no such thing as a sign and trade. The Islanders cannot sign then trade Okposo.

Second, what they can do is trade his rights so that he doesn’t hit the open market. Dallas just did this with Goligoski. The price for this was a fifth round pick. Goligoski and Okposo have precisely the same contract status.

Consider this an invitation to educate yourself.

Bag of Pucks

NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker"

LA- that game is still being played. Just because Pittsburgh won with a different style doesn’t make it obsolete.

Quoted for truth.

Woodguy

SumOil:
I want to apologise to Woodguy regarding the wording of my post. I was not calling you out regarding nurse. only when I replied to you were the times I was talking to or about you

Thank you.

I’m sad now because I’m happiest when I’m fired up and all indigent.

🙂

Woodguy

Caramel Batman,

First of all, there is no such thing as a sign and trade. The Islanders cannot sign then trade Okposo.

There isn’t a rule stopping this from happening, but it never happens in the NHL.

Happens more in Basketball as the team with the current rights to the player has many more options for contracts than non-rights teams.

In the NHL the only difference is 7 years vs 8 years.

Woodguy: Thank you.

I’m sad now because I’m happiest when I’m fired up and all indigent.

“indigent”
poor; needy.
synonyms: poor, impecunious, destitute, penniless, impoverished, insolvent, poverty-stricken;

Are you okay, Woodguy? Have they replaced wood with carbon fibre at IKEA? 😉

wheatnoil

Lowetide:
IF we still have crickets next week at this time, that will tell me PC may well have the pick as part of the big deal. That brings Arizona, Buffalo and I think Montreal into the conversation.

Or he’s holding out until the last second to pull the trigger on a different trade. The #4 has greatest value exactly 5 seconds before they announce Tkachuk. Why trade Hall or Nuge or Eberle or Pouliot if Tim Murray loses his mind and makes the better offer just as you get up to walk to the podium?

Greenberg

Hats off to LT and Jaxon for the work they did providing those lists. That was work.

An easier list to do that no one (that I have seen) has done is to pick the top 30 right-handed defencemen in the NHL, regardless of availability. Just so you can focus on what you should have but can’t because you don’t know how to choose them in the first place and develop them.

Jethro Tull

There may be an argument that a ‘sign and trade’ would constitute a contract negotiated in bad faith.

Kiltymcbagpipes

Woodguy:
Kiltymcbagpipes,

I think you can add Strome to that list and DeHaan (2009) both who could also be available. That’s 5 guys the Isles could move surely we can find a deal there.

Why do you think De Haan is struggling?

I personally like him I was going off a few trade rumours out there and Arthur Staple recently said that the Isles may explore trading him in an offseason deal. I believe his actual quote was “most likely defenseman to be moved: DeHaan”. I didn’t have the link so I didn’t post that. Here is a link of his report card that does talk about him being moved possibly:

http://flatbushfiles.com/2016/06/15/2015-16-report-cards-calvin-de-haan/

Too bad we have too many LHD

wheatnoil: Or he’s holding out until the last second to pull the trigger on a different trade. The #4 has greatest value exactly 5 seconds before they announce Tkachuk. Why trade Hall or Nuge or Eberle or Pouliot if Tim Murray loses his mind and makes the better offer just as you get up to walk to the podium?

I agree, except that there is one (unlikely) way it could have more value. The second after Kekalainen says “____insert name other than Puljujarvi here.”

Although by my own research, Portzline and Kekalainen both say JP is going #3. Either CBJ takes him or they trade with a team that wants to take him at #3, but they won’t go off the board at 3. So my scenario is very unlikely.

kinger_OIL

– As I have time, I will summarize the Poll, where we had about 70 entries.

Recall this was the question list, as to what we thought the Oil would do before next season:

1) Who will the first player drafted by the Oil this year?
2) Name one D that the Oil will acquire, not currently on roster
3) Name another D that the Oil will acquire,
4) Who will be the backup goalie next year
5) Will one of the Steve Austins (Ebs/Hall/RNH) be traded (bonus point to pick right one(s))
6) Which NHL roster players will be bought-out or sent to AHL before start of next season
7) Who is going to be the forward acquired with the biggest salary in the off-season
8) Will MacT and/or Howson be “reassigned”?
9) How many separate trades will the Oil complete
10) Of Griff/Nurse/Davidson/Osterle/Klef: which ones will be on starting roster for first game

– For the draft pick: 15 of you picked Tkachuk. More have us drafting a D: Sergachev, Juole, Chyrchrun

– 3 trades is the consensus (about half), no one thought the Oil would do more than 5…

Jethro Tull:
There may be an argument that a ‘sign and trade’ would constitute a contract negotiated in bad faith.

Hendricks was something of a “sign and trade.” He signed a long-term deal with Nashville, and in doing so it seems he turned down overtures from Edmonton. Nashville turned around early in the deal and sent him to Edmonton anyway. Kudos to Hendricks for being such a professional about it.

Truth

How about this for Chiarelli overhauling the roster? Not exactly what I would do, and it assumes some long shots.

Trades:
Hall to Carolina, for
Faulk
Sebastian Aho

Yakupov and a 3rd to Buffalo, for
Pysyk

Fayne to Arizona, for
5th round pick

Sign:
Lucic (about $6 x 5)
Demers (about $5.4 X 5)
Okposo (about $5 x 5)
Brouwer (about $4.3 x 4)
Chad Johnson ($1.3 x 2)

Buyout (or trade for nothing):
Korpikoski

LTIR:
Ference

Lucic – McDavid – Eberle
Pouliot – Nuge – Okposo
Maroon – Draisaitl – Brouwer
Salinen – Hendricks – Kassian

Sekera – Faulk
Klefbom – Demers
Davidson – Pysyk
Reinhart

Talbot
Johnson

Leaves about $120,000 in cap space according to Capfriendly.com

Edit: Turns out I have misread the site and am way over due to bonuses. Oops.

Jaxon

Truth,

How much in bonuses?

Correct me if I’m wrong but I think you have to have more cap space than bonuses. Almost every team on that site has more bonuses than cap space, so they are over the cap.

Younger Oil

Truth,

All those FA signings would royally screw us when we need to sign our RFAs.

Fayne was available for free on waivers last year and nobody took him, doubt anyone pays a pick for him.

Woodguy

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: “indigent”
poor; needy.
synonyms:poor, impecunious, destitute, penniless, impoverished, insolvent, poverty-stricken;

Are you okay, Woodguy? Have they replaced wood with carbon fibre at IKEA? ?

I blame my phone

Bad Seed

Truth:
How about this for Chiarelli overhauling the roster?Not exactly what I would do, and it assumes some long shots.

Trades:
Hall to Carolina, for
Faulk
Sebastian Aho

Yakupov and a 3rd to Buffalo, for
Pysyk

Fayne to Arizona, for
5th round pick

Sign:
Lucic (about $6 x 5)
Demers (about $5.4 X 5)
Okposo (about $5 x 5)
Brouwer (about $4.3 x 4)
Chad Johnson ($1.3 x 2)

Buyout (or trade for nothing):
Korpikoski

LTIR:
Ference

Lucic – McDavid – Eberle
Pouliot – Nuge – Okposo
Maroon – Draisaitl – Brouwer
Salinen – Hendricks – Kassian

Sekera – Faulk
Klefbom – Demers
Davidson – Pysyk
Reinhart

Talbot
Johnson

Leaves about $120,000 in cap space according to Capfriendly.com

No offence but I think you’re daydreaming. Okposo is looking for 6+ and, being American, I’d say the Oilers are a longshot to sign him. And Lucic will get more dough and more term.

Woodguy

godot10: Ruff coached up a lot of young blueliners in Buffalo.He went to the Eastern Conference final with 1 NHL defensemen, and 5 AHL’ers in 2006, when the injuries hit.He has had two seasons with all the youngsters on the AHL blue.He is one of the best coaches of defensemen in the NHL.

Bascially, it is cap management.They believe in their young guys, and don’t want to block them.

Not to mention that their young D is very good.

I really like Lindell and Honka. Johns is good too.

That’s a whole Lotta rooks though.

My guess is that they add a LHD

Woodguy: I blame my phone

Your phone made you derelict? All that internet shopping eh? They do have support groups for compulsive shoppers. ha ha 😉

Jethro Tull

Woodguy: I blame my phone

Your phone auto-corrects TO ‘indigent’?

I don’t think your phone means what it thinks it means.

🙂

Jethro Tull

Lowetide: I will take ‘potential Woodguy autobiography book titles’ for $500, Alex.

‘Stat’s All, Folks’?

Kiltymcbagpipes

Jethro Tull: ‘Stat’s All, Folks’?

Thread closed.

McSorley33

NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker",

Re: Winnipeg

They have been very clear from the start. They have an internal budget.

They say, if they feel they are truly at the point of competing for a cup. They may spend to the cap.

They did no walk away from Ladd.

They offered Andrew 6 for 6…..

Everyone in Winnipeg curious to see what he gets on the open market.

Truth

Jaxon,
Bad Seed,

Fully realize I’m dreaming. Just throwing it out there. Plus, I think I’m misinterpreting the site, as Jaxon pointed out. $7.8M in bonuses, but I don’t know if it automatically incorporates that into the cap or includes the players in AHL.

Kiltymcbagpipes

Jim Matheson @NHLbyMatty

“I trust Oiler fans and those pumping Jason Demers UFA tires realize he’s not top pairing D they absolutely need. He’s good but 2nd pairing”

Anyone care to retort?

Bohologo

Lowetide: I will take ‘potential Woodguy autobiography book titles’ for $500, Alex.

“Going Against The Grain”

magneto

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

Now this is all theoretically speaking:
A team desperately wants Tkachuk, dreams of him at night and has to immediately take a shower after. Now PC has done his job talking about how much he likes Tkachuk too, Edmonton says “we want him at #4, no deal”
Now the team would have to jump ahead of Edmonton to get their player of choice.
About a 0.5% chance it happens in real life.

Truth

Younger Oil:
Truth,

All those FA signings would royally screw us when we need to sign our RFAs.

Fayne was available for free on waivers last year and nobody took him, doubt anyone pays a pick for him.

Fayne looks good by advanced stats. New AZ GM might bite and they should love the cap hit in their attempt to hit the floor.

I think Pouliot won’t be around long, and I’d consider moving Sekera within a couple of years before his play dips below his contract value. Need to make room for the LHD in the system. Also, if all goes to plan, they eventually will have to make a choice between Draisaitl and Nuge.

Jaxon

Truth:
Jaxon,
Bad Seed,

Fully realize I’m dreaming.Just throwing it out there.Plus, I think I’m misinterpreting the site, as Jaxon pointed out.$7.8M in bonuses, but I don’t know if it automatically incorporates that into the cap or includes the players in AHL.

No, the site doesn’t include that in the cap calculation. My understanding is you can go over by 5% of cap (so $3.705M on a $74.1M cap), but that overage counts against the next season’s cap. Not good. You’re team is basically $7.7M over.

I think the site should make that more clear and have a red number of how much the bonuses put your team over.

Ducey

Kiltymcbagpipes:
Jim Matheson @NHLbyMatty

“I trust Oiler fans and those pumping Jason Demers UFA tires realize he’s not top pairing D they absolutely need. He’s good but 2nd pairing”

Anyone care to retort?

Demers is no Drew Stafford.

npanciroli

Ducey: Demers is no Drew Stafford.

Hahahah, perfect.

Water Fire

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Wow…so many things I have to question in there.

Chicago- can’t count out a team with Toews, Kane, Keith, Hjalmarsson, Panarin and Crawford. Not yet.

LA- that game is still being played. Just because Pittsburgh won with a different style doesn’t make it obsolete.

St. Louis- That’s a good team. I think they need a coaching change and a better option at C. But the pieces are there…what aging players? Schwartz, Lehtera, Tank, Stastny, Berglund, Pietro, Parayko, Allen, etc., are not aging. Losing Shattenkirk will hurt.

Vancouver- Agree they have lost their way.

Calgary– Overrated? They finished well outside the playoffs. Where do you have them rated? Goalie probably gets addressed fairly easily this summer. MAF, Bishop, etc., likely on the move.

Anaheim- Yeah, hiring Carlyle back was bizarre.

Dallas– they have a nice up and coming group of D prospects led by Honka. But losing both Demers and Goligoski will hurt. Agree the goaltending is a $10M hot mess but that team outscored the rest of the league by a mille. Can’t count them out so quickly.

CBJ- They need to sort out their NMCs and cap issues.

Colorado- They are a budget team? Do you have a link for that? It seems to me Roy didn’t want to pay Barrie because he thought he could get Trouba instead, but once the cost for Trouba was revealed to him, he went back to the plan to keep Barrie. Just because they don’t want to pay one player a reportedly huge asking price doesn’t make them a budget team.

Winnipeg- they COULD become a contender? They have the best group of young players in the entire NHL. Do you have evidence for said internal budget? They signed Buff to a big deal. They (correctly in my opinion) decided not to sign Ladd, an expensive, aging winger who didn’t seem to be super keen on staying in Winnipeg anymore. One of their owners is one of Canada’s richest men. It seems when the time comes to contend and spend they could easily spend.

Arizona- okay…

Minny- One day the Parise and Suter deals will be bad, yes. Not yet. They need a 1C above Granlund more than anything right now.

Nashville- they could also use a better 2nd line C to help Johansen. Their top 4 D is set.

I didn’t say all of these teams are terrible. But they have issues and I don’t see the teams that have been so dominant in the west remaining so. the change as it always happens is starting now IMHO. I don’t see this as some crackpot point of view.

As for budget teams, no links but I have read the names repeatedly here and elsewhere, and CapFriendly says Coyotes (29th), Avs (23rd) , Jets (30th), Ducks (24th) in payroll last season.

These teams have revenue issues that the Oilers don’t have. There are eastern teams as well of course. I think it’s accurate to say nobody is going to choose to float a money losing team for the joy of sport.

A capped league is an efficiency contest. The Oilers are in a unique position with the level of talent and age of the team, and no bad contracts, yet, and the ability to spend to the cap.

Chicago – Toews and Kane are fine but eat too much cap. Seabrook Keith and Hossa are declining with lots of term. Hjarmalsson is 29. They’ll be battling for depth even more now.

LA – other than LA’s cup in which they won a ton of OT games, the 3 out of the last 4 have been skill and speed teams. Cap stressed, outside of Doughty and Kopitar, Carter is turning 32 and meh.

St Louis – Piet and Tarasenko are tops, Parayko promising. Other than that they have aging players (Bouwmeester, Steen) and second tier players. They are built to grind, lack in high end skill, and it hasn’t worked so far, if the Cup is the goal.

Calgary – some think they are going to be better than the Oilers, even here,I don’t see it. A couple of nice forwards, old Gio, Hamilton and Brodie.

Anaheim – old core, bad coach. Promising D, the new Nasville in a bit?

Dallas – their forward group is thin after Benn and Seguin once the old guys are out, IMO.

Colorado – could be great, lots of skill, like the Oilers lack a good D corp. Roy is barking mad, need to spend more. This situation gives the Oilers the upper hand IMO.

Winnipeg – The Jets don’t have the Oilers revenue, and Thomson isn’t going to burn cash at centre ice. They have a nice forward group of young players, none are elite at this point. Wheeler and Little are getting older. Their D doesn’t impress me past Buf. Myers is not that good IMO. Trouba is gone.

Minny – I don’t see it and those two contracts are ticking now.

Nashville – they have a good deep forward group but no elite F player IMO. The D is good,Weber is slower and old, he’s not going to hold his level now IMO, for long at least. Johansen has yet to establish that he’s a league top player IMO. Potential but not a seemingly dominant team now.

All teams are going to keep trying to get better, some will find a way if their thinking is right. A few years ago the mountain the Oilers faced in the west was steep. It looks much easier now, my point being that if a few good things happen I could see them rising to the top end of the west quickly and contending regularly.

JDï™

Bohologo: “Going Against The Grain”

But WG and Wheatnoil are usually in agreement.

spoiler

The PA going for the 5 percent escalator is really pissing me off. Frown with me people! Furrow those brows! WHERE’S YOUR INDIGENCE?!

rickithebear

Faulk: F……………………………………………..!

League average Even offence by Position:
Fwd #1 (1-30) – 11.6%
Fwd #2 (31-60) – 9.1%
Fwd #3 (61-90 – 8.7%
————————————– 29.4% of even offence
FWD #4( 91-120) 8.0%
FWD #5 (121-150) – 7.3%
FWd #6 (151-180) – 6.7%
————————————–22.0% (22.0+29.4) 49.4% from top 6 FWd
FWD #7 (181-210) – 6.1%
FWD #8 (211-240) – 5.6%
Fwd #9 (241-270) – 5.2%
————————————– 16.9% (16.9+49.4) 66.3% from top 9 fwds
Fwd #10 (271 – 300) – 4.7%
Dman #1 (1-30) – 4.6%
Fwd 11 (301-330) – 3.9%
Dman #2 (31-60) – 3.7%
————————————— 8.3% from top 2 D
Dman #3 (61-90) – 3.5%
Dman #4 (91-120) – 3.1%
————————————– 6.6% (6.6+8.3) 14.9% from top 4 D
Fwd 12 (331-360) – 2.5%
———————————— 11.1% from 4th line Forwards
Dman #5 (121-150) – 2.0%
Dman #6 (151-180) – 1.6%
————————————- 3.6% from bottom D pair
Fwd 13 (361-390) – 1.2%
Dman #7 (180-210) – 0.9%

When I look at this:
I find it hard to believe that Dman Drive,
Corsi For
Chances for
HSCF
Goals For.

A team with EVP/60 Fwds:
#1 Mcdavid
Maroon #2 when with Mcdavid
#10 Eberle
#11 Hall
#17 Draisatl
#43 Pouliot
Oilers clearly suffer offensively at Even without these great offensive Production D.

Maroon-Mcdavid-XXX 5.275M
Hall-Draisatl-XXX 9.4M
Pouliot-XXX- Eberle 10M

Kiltymcbagpipes

You know,

I dont have access to the fancystats so I could be way off base here but would a Klefbom-Demers top pairing be THAT much better than a Davidson-Klefbom top pairing? $5 Mill per better?

edit: I’d be interested to see Davidson vs. Demers advanced stats considering one guy played on a bottom team and one on a top team.

rickithebear

Lowetide: Sure. Demers is Petry replacement, I am more than happy to place him with Klefbom and take my chances with this forward group. Should a top pairing D come available at a reasonable price, it will allow Edmonton to aim higher.

Taylor Hall for Sami Vatanen is NOT aiming higher.

Demers has largely played 3rd comp. in his career were he is a league average HSCA/60
when he gets bumped up to 2nd comp he has largely been bottom 60 HSCA/60.
So he is our answer for a 1st comp Dman!
UH!
Er!
Really?
You guys are joking?

I am all on board with

Klefbom-XXX
sekera-Fayne
Davidson-XXX

While retaining that 3 sets of forward Pairs.

kinger_OIL

Lowetide: Sure. Demers is Petry replacement, I am more than happy to place him with Klefbom and take my chances with this forward group. Should a top pairing D come available at a reasonable price, it will allow Edmonton to aim higher.

Taylor Hall for Sami Vatanen is NOT aiming higher.

– If you could get Demers now, then say a Burns at trade deadline: that’s an awesome approach

– Pick up Wideman for bottom pair on a flyer

Klef-Demers
Sek-Fayne
Davidson-Wideman/Gryba (or Cody Franson)

Then trade-deadline:
Sek-Burns
Klef-Demers
Davidson-Nurse
with Wideman/Gryba/Franson/Fayne doing what they do depending on what they do

– If Wideman no work, you still have Nurse/Griff/Osterle/Davidson/Gryba to make a bottom pair

*edit: ricki says Demers no good at top pair: he knows more than me by a lot. In ricki I kind of trust, sometimes, maybe, with caveats

PDO

Kiltymcbagpipes:
You know,

I dont have access to the fancystats so I could be way off base here but would a Klefbom-Demers top pairing be THAT much better than a Davidson-Klefbom top pairing? $5 Mill per better?

edit: I’d be interested to see Davidson vs. Demers advanced stats considering one guy played on a bottom team and one on a top team.

Trickle down economics don’t exist in the real world, but in the NHL they certainly do.

If we decide that Davidson’s last year is his established ability (dicey, but he did look dreamy and performed damn well), we can comfortably say he’s a 4. He also showed ability to play on the offside which really helps a lot.

Having said that, you have to look at the roster as a whole and remember that injuries will ALWAYS happen.

So if option A is)

Klef – Davidson
Sekera – Fayne
Nurse – Reinhardt/Gryba

And option B is)

Klef – Demers
Sekera – Fayne
Nurse – Davidson

Then you go with option B all day every day and it probably is $5,000,000 better because not only is your bottom pair significantly better in this scenario, but when you get an injury to anyone in your top 4 Davidson can move up there and at the very least maintain your top 4’s stability.

The Oiler’s have spent far too long gifting spots instead of pushing guys down the roster for real depth.

Davidson is very likely better than a third pairing defenseman, and it’s a beautiful thing to have a young, cheap player like him knocking down the door on the bottom pairing. If he takes another step forward then you can always move someone later when you have actual depth to deal from.

Chris

Ricki all your numbers really establish is that Demers played in front of shitty goaltenders in Dallas. We all knew that already, thanks. As you are aware defenseman do not play goal so their goals against average is irrelevant.

digger50

To me all this uncertainty makes one thing clear. In the 2016 draft the Oilers have to walk away with the absolute best defenceman available. No mucking around, just get him.

Bag of Pucks

Caramel Batman: This is typically confused.

First of all, there is no such thing as a sign and trade.The Islanders cannot sign then trade Okposo.

Second, what they can do is trade his rights so that he doesn’t hit the open market.Dallas just did this with Goligoski.The price for this was a fifth round pick.Goligoski and Okposo have precisely the same contract status.

Consider this an invitation to educate yourself.

If a team’s caught ‘tampering’ (i.e. negotiating with a player under contract to another team), they can get fined by the league. But with GMs and agents talking directly, it is a very easy conversation to have without the league finding out, and it quite likely happens all the time.

Chiarelli could work out a trade in principle with Snow, and then pick up the phone to Okposo’s agent, Pat Brisson, and say:

“Pat, I’ve got a deal on the table to acquire your boy in trade along with Hamonic for Eberle and Fayne. I can see him riding shotgun on McDavid’s line for the next 5 years. The catch is I’d need Kyle under contract at $6.5M per year over 5 years to make the numbers work. To which Brisson can reply A) go fuck your hat OR B) the number sounds a bit low but Kyle and Travis are tight, and he’d love to play with Connor. Let me check.

This is how things work in the real world, not fantasyland where everyone plays by the letter of the law 24/7. Consider yourself educated.

Kiltymcbagpipes

PDO: Trickle down economics don’t exist in the real world, but in the NHL they certainly do.

If we decide that Davidson’s last year is his established ability (dicey, but he did look dreamy and performed damn well), we can comfortably say he’s a 4.He also showed ability to play on the offside which really helps a lot.

Having said that, you have to look at the roster as a whole and remember that injuries will ALWAYS happen.

So if option A is)

Klef – Davidson
Sekera – Fayne
Nurse – Reinhardt/Gryba

And option B is)

Klef – Demers
Sekera – Fayne
Nurse – Davidson

Then you go with option B all day every day and it probably is $5,000,000 better because not only is your bottom pair significantly better in this scenario, but when you get an injury to anyone in your top 4 Davidson can move up there and at the very least maintain your top 4’s stability.

The Oiler’s have spent far too long gifting spots instead of pushing guys down the roster for real depth.

Davidson is very likely better than a third pairing defenseman, and it’s a beautiful thing to have a young, cheap player like him knocking down the door on the bottom pairing.If he takes another step forward then you can always move someone later when you have actual depth to deal from.

That makes sense although I wasnt suggesting not adding a dman. I was suggesting if we couldnt get a top dman why pay Demers all that money if Davidson could handle it. Just find a suitable 3rd pairing guy to replace Davey like Pysyk or whoever until like LT says we can throw big money at a true #1 like Burns for example.

So Option C:

Klefbom-Davidson
Sekera-Fayne
Nurse-Pysyk

$5-$6 Mill per is a lot for a 3rd-4th dman like Demers when we are already paying Sekera all his money.

edit: I’m still banging the table for Savard

Klefbom – Davidson
Sekera – Savard
Nurse – Pysyk

Isn’t terrible is it?

kinger_OIL

Lowetide: Yes, agreed. You have to take what the market is giving and the options for top pairing RHD appear to be one year out.

– I’m not in the camp that we need to be in the playoffs, based on the “work” we do this off-season.

– suspect the fantasy roster required to be created to be playoffs in this off-season isn’t there in terms of dance partners and economics.

– But min. one steve austin is gone by fall: that’s a lock.

blainer

We will be very lucky to get anything of value in a Yak trade. If Chia can pull off some kind of miricle I will be most impressed.

I do agree we need to take back a struggling former high pick just not sure which one.

Demers despite ricki’s numbers will be a fine replacement for Jultz.

Sekera Fayne toughs

Klef Demers

Davey Nurse

Klef Demers and Davey can all share 2nd Comp with Nurse being sheltered until he can prove otherwise.

If we can’t get Demers we have to trade for a Vatenen and have him do the Demers role.

This teams Defense will already have a massive improvement with the subtraction of Jultz and Yak.

A top nine of ..

Hall Nuge Eriksson

Lucic CMD Eberle

Pou Drai Maroon

Puts us in the playoffs with minimal injuries. We really need the vets now. I am willing to suffer in the last couple of years of the vet contracts to make us competitive now. I’m tired of waiting.

square_wheels

What’s the over-under on Chia trading for Lucic rights ?

I can’t see why he isn’t capable of playing RW, possession monster that he is.

Kiltymcbagpipes

square_wheels:
What’s the over-under on Chia trading for Lucic rights ?

I can’t see why he isn’t capable of playing RW, possession monster that he is.

I suggested that yesterday had a feeling he was considering it. No one else seemed to agree though. I stil think its possible so gimme the under

Bag of Pucks

square_wheels:
What’s the over-under on Chia trading for Lucic rights ?

I can’t see why he isn’t capable of playing RW, possession monster that he is.

Would imagine Lombardi’s working the phones like a madman on a Dustin Brown salary dump so it doesn’t come to that.

Sounds ridiculous I know, but so did the prospect of dumping Mike Richards’ contract a year ago.

That Dean-O, he’s a wily coyote.

Woodguy

godot10,

Yesterday you said:

Reinhart played in the top 4D with Osterle for most of the games post trade deadline. That is a pretty big contribution that you seem to be ignoring.

So I went back and looked at the games post trade deadline to see.

Here’s what I found:

Opponent – Date -– Main partner – CF% – 5v5 TOI rank (Dmen only)

SJS – MAR 8 – PARDY – 37.5% – 5th
MIN – MAR 10 – CLENDENNING – 25% – 6TH
ARI – MAR 12 – OESTERLE – 62% – 2ND
NSH – MAR 14 – OESTERLE – 48% – 3rd
STL – MAR 16 – OESTERLE – 42% – 4TH
VAN – MAR 18 – OESTERLE -31% – 1ST
COL – MAR 20 – OESTERLE – 54% – 3RD
ARI – MAR 22 – OESTERLE – 62% – 2ND
SJS – MAR 24 – OESTERLE – 57% – 2ND
LAK – MAR 26 – OESTERLE – 34% – 4TH
ANA – MAR 28 – OESTERLE – 47% – 3RD
CGY – APR 4 – OESTERLE – 43% – 3RD
VAN – APR 6 – OESTERLE – 58% – 4TH
VAN – APR 9 – OESTERLE – 31% – 4TH

You were correct that except for the first game he was solidly in the top 4 via 5v5 TOI.

I still maintain that what was accomplished for the team vis a vi last season was very little. If he didn’t play then it would have been Niktin or other who probably gets similar results.

However, what was accomplished *long-term* for the team was TOI for a developing young Dman, which is pure gold.

I will concede your point sir.

Kiltymcbagpipes: I suggested that yesterday had a feeling he was considering it. No one else seemed to agree though. I stil think its possible so gimme the under

If LA doesn’t re-sign Lucic it is highly likely he would consider coming here. So why would we trade anything for his rights? I don’t follow. Surely the situation here is better than Vancouver. I worry about bidding against ourselves, and a 5th rounder isn’t going to influence Lombardi’s decision on whether to sign him or not, know what I mean?

spoiler:
The PA going for the 5 percent escalator is really pissing me off.Frown with me people!Furrow those brows!WHERE’S YOUR INDIGENCE?!

Quoted because this was so well played and needed more love.

Woodguy

Kiltymcbagpipes: I personally like him I was going off a few trade rumours out there and Arthur Staple recently said that the Isles may explore trading him in an offseason deal. I believe his actual quote was “most likely defenseman to be moved: DeHaan”. I didn’t have the link so I didn’t post that. Here is a link of his report card that does talk about him being moved possibly:

http://flatbushfiles.com/2016/06/15/2015-16-report-cards-calvin-de-haan/

Too bad we have too many LHD

Thanks for that.

I’ve always liked De Haan.

Very solid results regardless of partner and you can make an argument that he’s *slightly* better than Hamonic although its very close.

I’m confused by that writer a little in that this was De Haan’s 3rd NHL season, not 2nd. He got 51 games in the NHL in 13/14.

Ducey

Woodguy:
godot10,

I will concede your point sir.

Man, your phone really is broken

square_wheels

Bag of Pucks,

Brown hasn’t left his home, drove a car or been on the internet in months because he’s afraid he may get the Michael Hastings treatment.

Snowman

Pitlick re-signed. The kid survives another day. 1 year deal.

Woodguy

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

Lowetide,

Jethro Tull,

I love and hate you at the same time.

Woodguy

Kiltymcbagpipes:
Jim Matheson @NHLbyMatty

“I trust Oiler fans and those pumping Jason Demers UFA tires realize he’s not top pairing D they absolutely need. He’s good but 2nd pairing”

Anyone care to retort?

He’s right.

Here’s my conclusion on him from my Demers post.

Whenever I see Demers mentioned on twitter or Oiler blogs as a possible target for the Oilers someone is always quick to chime in with “but he’s not a 1st pairing Dman”

This is true. Demers has not been on a first pairing in his career, but rather has been 2nd pair for the last two years.

Last year he played mostly with Jordie Benn and this year mostly with Johnny Oduya, and then with Kris Russell in the playoffs while Oduya is playing 3rd pair with rookie Stephen Johns.

I spot checked 20 Dallas games in 14/15 to make sure Demers was playing 2nd pair using 5v5 TOI and he was.

We cannot say that Demers has a track record of playing 1st pairing D and doing well.

We can say that he has a record of playing second pairing D and doing very well and he may be ready to take on 1st pairing.

Given his results over the last two years with the top two lines and checking lines for Dallas I would be comfortable with Demers as the Oilers 1RD.

I do not think slotting Demers at 1RD on the Oilers would be slotting him above his established NHL ability given what we have seen in his results above.

Its not a slam dunk, but a confident bet given what we see in this post.

If Demers plays for the Oilers he will have a significantly better partner than either Oduya or Benn as well.

The fact that you can get him for only money and not give up an asset is massive advantage in targeting Demers and may outweigh the negative of him not having a 1st pairing history.

Ca$h-McMoney!

Woodguy:
godot10,

I will concede your point sir.

Weird. I thought lowetide.ca was a website with a comments section. That obviously can’t be, because everybody knows that acknowledging someone else’s point on the internet tears a whole in the fabric of space and time.

Frank the dog

Bag of Pucks: Imagine would it would be like to have sex with a spastic contortionist having a coughing fit?

Would that be a bad thing? 🙂

Lowetide:
Oilers just signed Pitlick. Incredibly, I had nothing prepared. Will have something upin a little while.

They did? Did they hire an expert surgeon in bionics as well to put his pieces back together?

rickithebear

The league average save% for
Low chance shots is .9650
Med Chance shots is .9200
High chance shots is .8330

there are on average
14 low chance shots – .9650 – .49GA
8 Med Chance shots – .9200 – .64GA
7 High Chance shots – .8330 – 1.17GA
per 60 minutes.

There are aprox 48 EVTOI in a game.
48/60 X (.49+.64+1.17) = 1.84 EVG/gm
and
6min PPTOI
6/60 X (6.4 PPGF/60) = .64GA

if we take average Goal tending:
with standard 8/7 shot ratio in HSCA
we expect an average HSCA save % of
(8/15) X .9200 = .4907
(7/15) X .8330 = .3887
.4907 + .3887 = .8794 is what to expect from a goalie who performes at average in both types of shots.

It is important to note that we do not see Average or better for both Med and High chance shots from most starters.
You only see it in the best of starters.
It is usually 1/4 or less of the starters that achieve this.
Talbot being one of them.

Now if we take the HSCA/60 for different D.

(7.6 HSCA/60 X .8794) – 7.6 = .917 GA/60
Sekera 8.00 Facing 2nd comp = .965 GA/60
Davidson 8.68 facing 2nd comp = 1.047 GA/60
9.00 HSCA/60 = 1.085
9.50 HSCA/60 = 1.146
Klefbom 10.12 facing 1st comp = 1.220 GA/60
10.50 = 1.266 GA/60
11.00 HSCA/60 = 1.327 GA/60
11.50 HSCA/60 = 1.387 GA/60
12.13 Sekra/Fayne 1st comp = 1.463 GA/60
12.50 HSCA/60 = 1.508 GA/60
—————————– a lot of the offensive D are in the ranges Below.
I do mean OFFENSIVE!
12.85 HSCA/60 = 1.550 GA/60
13.35 HSCA/60 = 1.610 GA/60
13.85 HSCA/60 = 1.670 GA/60
this is the variance in range you see form the best goalies in the game.
what about a true League average goalie.

one thing that does stand out is.
You want D that keep shots to perimeter.
but you want d that do not abandon and allow shots from the .8330 Save% area.
We have seen 8 years of these D.
Faulk, Barrie………… are these shite D.

If we see .41 EVGA/gm worse results from bottom 30 HSCAD compared to top 30 HSCAD.
you better have A top 5 PK nad a top 5 PP and 3 top 10 EVP/60 lines. you might make the playoffs.

Woodguy

Jaxon: No, the site doesn’t include that in the cap calculation. My understanding is you can go over by 5% of cap (so $3.705M on a $74.1M cap), but that overage counts against the next season’s cap. Not good.You’re team is basically $7.7M over.

I think the site should make that more clear and have a red number of how much the bonuses put your team over.

You’re right on everything except the percentage, its 7.5%

50.5 (h)(ii)

(ii) A Club shall be permitted to have an Averaged Club Salary in excess of
the Upper Limit resulting from Performance Bonuses solely to the extent
that such excess results from the inclusion in Averaged Club Salary of: (i)
Exhibit 5 Individual “A” Performance Bonuses and “B” Performance
Bonuses paid by the Club that may be earned by Players in the Entry
Level System and (ii) Performance Bonuses that may be earned by Players
pursuant to Section 50.2(b)(i)(C) above, provided that under no
circumstances may a Club’s Averaged Club Salary so exceed the Upper
Limit by an amount greater than the result of seven-and-one-half (7.5)
percent multiplied by the Upper Limit (the “Performance Bonus
Cushion”).

blainer

Woodguy: He’s right.

Here’s my conclusion on him from myDemers post.

Whenever I see Demers mentioned on twitter or Oiler blogs as a possible target for the Oilers someone is always quick to chime in with “but he’s not a 1st pairing Dman”


This is true.Demers has not been on a first pairing in his career, but rather has been 2nd pair for the last two years.

Last year he played mostly with Jordie Benn and this year mostly with Johnny Oduya, and then with Kris Russell in the playoffs while Oduya is playing 3rd pair with rookie Stephen Johns.

I spot checked 20 Dallas games in 14/15 to make sure Demers was playing 2nd pair using 5v5 TOI and he was.

We cannot say that Demers has a track record of playing 1st pairing D and doing well.

We can say that he has a record of playing second pairing D and doing very well and he may be ready to take on 1st pairing.

Given his results over the last two years with the top two lines and checking lines for Dallas I would be comfortable with Demers as the Oilers 1RD.

I do not think slotting Demers at 1RD on the Oilers would be slotting him above his established NHL ability given what we have seen in his results above.

Its not a slam dunk, but a confident bet given what we see in this post.

If Demers plays for the Oilers he will have a significantly better partner than either Oduya or Benn as well.

The fact that you can get him for only money and not give up an asset is massive advantage in targeting Demers and may outweigh the negative of him not having a 1st pairing history.

I agree. We don’t know that there will even be a deal out there for a number 1 D. That just very rarely happens. I think maybe Pronger was the last one to be traded but stand to be corrected.

My question for you is do you think Demers and Fayne could share the tough comps. I actually think that Davey is about to emerge as our Number 1 D.. Crazy talk I know but just a gut feeling.

I’m thinking maybe

Sekera Fayne

Davey/Klef Demers

With the possibility of all five playing top 4 in different games if that makes sense.

spoiler

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Quoted because this was so well played and needed more love.

Thanks! Was going for the double double entendre but looks like it wasn’t destituted for greatness.

Bag of Pucks

Frank the dog: Would that be a bad thing?

Depends what you value most in a sexual experience I guess, the journey or the final destination!

Woodguy

JDï™: But WG and Wheatnoil are usually in agreement.

*strong Weiser clap*

spoiler

Lowetide:
WG: You agree with Matty that Demers is not second-pairing? Huh. That is two surprises in two days.

Aren’t Matheson and poor Woodguy agreeing that Demers IS second pairing… as most of us here have been saying?

Bag of Pucks

Snowman:
Pitlick re-signed. The kid survives another day. 1 year deal.

Trying to come up with some explanation as to why Chia would do this and the only thing I can come up with is Tyler is Lance Pitlick’s nephew and Lance might have been a player with the Sens during Chia’s time there. Family affinity?

No idea what he’s seeing in this player.

Doug McLachlan

LT, number 7 on your list of potential D acquisitions is Radko Gudas.

Dave Isaac of the Courier-Post (and USA Today) reported yesterday that “Negotiatons with restricted free agent defenseman Radko Gudas are not going well.” (You need to scroll to the bottom of the article after navigating an ad wall).

http://www.courierpostonline.com/story/sports/nhl/flyers/2016/06/16/flyers-buy-out-last-year-rj-umberger-contract/85843992/

Gudas would be a fairly affordable RFA contract with his non-sexy boxcars but if things aren’t going well in Philly, perhaps he can be got for less than the going rate.

Woodguy

Kiltymcbagpipes:
You know,

I dont have access to the fancystats so I could be way off base here but would a Klefbom-Demers top pairing be THAT much better than a Davidson-Klefbom top pairing? $5 Mill per better?

edit: I’d be interested to see Davidson vs. Demers advanced stats considering one guy played on a bottom team and one on a top team.

Handedness is a big deal, especially at the top of the roster: https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/03/04/quantifying-the-importance-of-handedness/

Basically you are giving up, on average a 6% chuck of your shot attempt ratio, which is huge when going Lefty-Lefty

Davidson and Demers made most of their team mates better in terms of shot attempt ratio.

Both were the better player than their main partner

Most of Davidson’s results were in 3rd pair and its a bigger jump from 3rd pair to 2nd pair than 2nd pair to 1st pair in terms of QC for Dmen.

I’d bet on Davidson being a good 2nd pairing Dman (playing the left side) not quite as strongly as I’d bet on Demers being able to handle 1st pair, but I’d bet on both of them.

Pescador

Lowetide,

That’s what we said last year, now look at us.
Tearing each other limb from limb over table scraps.
It’s boarder line apocalyptic around here, if you ask me.
Help us Gmoney!!
Who should we get & how should we get them.
Some call the A-team
Man that show was sweet,
I’ll feel better as soon as we get Mr T. In the air.

jm363561

PDO: Trickle down economics don’t exist in the real world, but in the NHL they certainly do.

If we decide that Davidson’s last year is his established ability (dicey, but he did look dreamy and performed damn well), we can comfortably say he’s a 4.He also showed ability to play on the offside which really helps a lot.

Having said that, you have to look at the roster as a whole and remember that injuries will ALWAYS happen.

So if option A is)

Klef – Davidson
Sekera – Fayne
Nurse – Reinhardt/Gryba

And option B is)

Klef – Demers
Sekera – Fayne
Nurse – Davidson

Then you go with option B all day every day and it probably is $5,000,000 better because not only is your bottom pair significantly better in this scenario, but when you get an injury to anyone in your top 4 Davidson can move up there and at the very least maintain your top 4’s stability.

The Oiler’s have spent far too long gifting spots instead of pushing guys down the roster for real depth.

Davidson is very likely better than a third pairing defenseman, and it’s a beautiful thing to have a young, cheap player like him knocking down the door on the bottom pairing.If he takes another step forward then you can always move someone later when you have actual depth to deal from.

Obviously a top RHD is what we all hope and pray for. Plan Bs might reasonably include your suggestions. I am puzzled about all the concern over a third pairing RHD – Pittsburgh just won the cup with JS in this role. Gryba (2015.16 +/- zero!), or Davidson or Reinhart on their offside, can all do the job.

I live in hope that Oesterle puts on a few kilos and is the new Davidson (or the new Barrie), and that the roster is not blown up.

Yawwwn, I am even boring myself here. The sooner there is something concrete the better.

blainer

Bag of Pucks: Trying to come up with some explanation as to why Chia would do this and the only thing I can come up with is Tyler is Lance Pitlick’s nephew and Lance might have been a player with the Sens during Chia’s time there. Family affinity?

No idea what he’s seeing in this player.

The only reason I can see is the entire lack of RT shot players on this team.

Caramel Batman

Bag of Pucks: If a team’s caught ‘tampering’ (i.e. negotiating with a player under contract to another team), they can get fined by the league. But with GMs and agents talking directly, it is a very easy conversation to have without the league finding out, and it quite likely happens all the time.

Chiarelli could work out a trade in principle with Snow, and then pick up the phone to Okposo’s agent, Pat Brisson, and say:

“Pat, I’ve got a deal on the table to acquire your boy in trade along with Hamonic for Eberle and Fayne. I can see him riding shotgun on McDavid’s line for the next 5 years. The catch is I’d need Kyle under contract at $6.5M per year over 5 years to make the numbers work. To which Brisson can reply A) go fuck your hat OR B) the number sounds a bit low but Kyle and Travis are tight, and he’d love to play with Connor. Let me check.

This is how things work in the real world, not fantasyland where everyone plays by the letter of the law 24/7. Consider yourself educated.

Are you dense? I’m not saying what you are talking about doesn’t happen. I’m saying the price for what you are talking about is a fifth round pick. That’s it.

Your suggestion of using the #4 pick as part of a larger deal is self-immolation.

Pescador

Lowetide: Yes, agreed. You have to take what the market is giving and the options for top pairing RHD appear to be one year out.

Forgot this

Jaxon

Woodguy: Your right on everything except the percentage, its 7.5%

Doh! Thanks for the correction.

Woodguy

kinger_OIL: – If you could get Demers now, then say a Burns at trade deadline: that’s an awesome approach

– Pick up Wideman for bottom pair on a flyer

Klef-Demers
Sek-Fayne
Davidson-Wideman/Gryba (or Cody Franson)

Then trade-deadline:
Sek-Burns
Klef-Demers
Davidson-Nurse
with Wideman/Gryba/Franson/Fayne doing what they do depending on what they do

– If Wideman no work, you still have Nurse/Griff/Osterle/Davidson/Gryba to make a bottom pair

*edit: ricki says Demers no good at top pair: he knows more than me by a lot.In ricki I kind of trust, sometimes, maybe, with caveats

I like all this but think you can get Wisneiwski out of CAR on the cheap and he’s worlds better than Wideman.

He’s well rested now seeing that he blew his knee out on the 2nd shift of the season last year.

npanciroli

Radko Gudas’ warrior chart is surprisingly good.

http://public.tableau.com/shared/23NB25T77?:display_count=yes

Woodguy

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Quoted because this was so well played and needed more love.

Agreed

theres oil in virginia

Lowetide:
Oilers just signed Pitlick. Incredibly, I had nothing prepared. Will have something upin a little while.

So wait, let me get this straight. You gave up on Pitlick before the Oilers did!? I never saw that coming.

🙂

Klima's_Bucket

blainer: The only reason I can see is the entire lack of RT shot players on this team.

Or the Oilers are hot after his cousin Rem in the upcoming draft and want to bring in as many Pitlick’s to the fold as they can.

Woodguy

Snowman:
Pitlick re-signed. The kid survives another day. 1 year deal.

I will never not cheer for him.

Anyone who says the Oilers made the wrong pick are playing the 20/20 hindsight game.

He was a consensus 1st rounder who slipped and the whole Oilogoshpere was very happy and relieved when Stu picked him.

Even Derek Zona liked the pick.

Bag of Pucks

Caramel Batman: Are you dense?

Well, interacting with you is one of the early warning signs.

Woodguy

Lowetide:
WG: You agree with Matty that Demers is not second-pairing? Huh. That is two surprises in two days.

I agree with Matty that Demers is not a 1st pairing Dman.

I’m pretty sure Matty didn’t say that he’s not a 2nd pairing Dman.

Demers has no history playing 1st pair, so you can’t call him that at all.

His history at 2nd pair suggests he can move up and play 1st and do well, so that’s why I’d bet on him.

Woodguy

blainer: I agree. We don’t know that there will even be a deal out there for a number 1 D. That just very rarely happens. I think maybe Pronger was the last one to be traded but stand to be corrected.

My question for you is do you think Demers and Fayne could share the tough comps. I actually think that Davey is about to emerge as our Number 1 D.. Crazy talk I know but just a gut feeling.

I’m thinking maybe

Sekera Fayne

Davey/KlefDemers

With the possibility of all five playing top 4 in different games if that makes sense.

Having Davey start on 3rd pair and be able to go up the roster when injury happens is pure gold.

Real NHL depth.

Woodguy

spoiler: Thanks!Was going for the double double entendre but looks like it wasn’t destituted for greatness.

*polite golf clap*

Woodguy

Doug McLachlan:
LT, number 7 on your list of potential D acquisitions is Radko Gudas.

Dave Isaac of the Courier-Post (and USA Today) reported yesterday that “Negotiatons with restricted free agent defenseman Radko Gudas are not going well.”(You need to scroll to the bottom of the article after navigating an ad wall).

http://www.courierpostonline.com/story/sports/nhl/flyers/2016/06/16/flyers-buy-out-last-year-rj-umberger-contract/85843992/

Gudas would be a fairly affordable RFA contract with his non-sexy boxcars but if things aren’t going well in Philly, perhaps he can be got for less than the going rate.

I’d love Gudas here.

Instant fan favorite because he’s a mean and dirty sonofabitch who would make Nurse look like shrinking violet by comparison.

He can play the hockey pretty good too.

Only draw back are the penalties and suspensions.

Woodguy

Lowetide: Ah. Misread. I shall have a nap.

Blame your phone.

Bag of Pucks

Caramel Batman: Are you dense?I’m not saying what you are talking about doesn’t happen.

Your exact words were ‘there is no such thing.’

wheatnoil

JDï™: But WG and Wheatnoil are usually in agreement.

Well played sir!

Doug McLachlan

General Fanager has Pitlick at $725K. Super team-friendly number, if correct, as it doesn’t even include the 5% QO raise from his $761K last year. That said, his AHL contract goes up $10K to $95K.

http://www.generalfanager.com/players/865

This is one 50 player slots I’m happy to have filled from within. Rooting for the good guy here.

spoiler

Lowetide: Ah. Misread. I shall have a nap.

And the door to autobiography titles swings wide open.

spoiler

Eventually Pitlick will have been injured enough times that the number of pins in his body will match Wolverine’s adamantine skeleton and he will be unstoppable.

….Or a replacement for Hugh Jackman.

Pouzar

Snowman:
Pitlick re-signed. The kid survives another day. 1 year deal.

Really liked his game in BAK in the times I saw him this season.
A lot more confident with the puck and of course that speed/physicality.
Too bad the injuries have killed him. Hope it works out for him

kinger_OIL

Woodguy: Wisneiwski

– If they go that route (because they determine that there isn’t 2 top-4 D available at the right price): whoever they get as the 2nd D, they aren’t pencilling in as anything other than 3-rd pairing vet for mentoring Davidson/Nurse/Griff/Osterle

– So if it’s Wis or Wideman or Franson, you can course correct quickly if no good, vs: “we got Nikita and Captain, locked up for years, and they are lock-and load top-4 D’s”

Woodguy: *polite golf clap*

and more polite golf clapping.

godot10

kinger_OIL: –

– So if it’s Wis or Wideman or Franson, you can course correct quickly if no good, vs: “we got Nikita and Captain, locked up for years, and they are lock-and load top-4 D’s”

Pay Brian Campbell instead on a generous 1-year deal.

Tapdog

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: and more polite golf clapping.

oh no…….I suspect the “Clap” is in the neighborhood….Please message at your own risk 🙂

digger50

Bag of Pucks: If a team’s caught ‘tampering’ (i.e. negotiating with a player under contract to another team), they can get fined by the league. But with GMs and agents talking directly, it is a very easy conversation to have without the league finding out, and it quite likely happens all the time.

Chiarelli could work out a trade in principle with Snow, and then pick up the phone to Okposo’s agent, Pat Brisson, and say:

“Pat, I’ve got a deal on the table to acquire your boy in trade along with Hamonic for Eberle and Fayne. I can see him riding shotgun on McDavid’s line for the next 5 years. The catch is I’d need Kyle under contract at $6.5M per year over 5 years to make the numbers work. To which Brisson can reply A) go fuck your hat OR B) the number sounds a bit low but Kyle and Travis are tight, and he’d love to play with Connor. Let me check.

This is how things work in the real world, not fantasyland where everyone plays by the letter of the law 24/7. Consider yourself educated.

In addition, the agent says “no way in heck is he going to Edmonton” and that’s the end of story.

I wonder if Chia is encountering some closed doors. Likely.

[…] What Will a Yakupov Trade Look Like?: It’s more than likely that these next few days are the final days for Nail Yakupov as a member of the Edmonton Oilers. What can we expect in return for the first overall pick from the 2012 draft? Certainly not as much as one would hope. Lowetide looks back at two comparable deals and takes a look at a rumor regarding the Oilers sending Yakupov to the Flyers. […]