Connor McDavid. Taylor Hall. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Nail Yakupov, Leon Draisaitl. Darnell Nurse. All Oilers players, all selected after mind-numbing seasons of frustration. Peter Chiarelli is the caretaker of those assets, earned by losing teams playing in front of loyal fans. It is his job to stand and deliver, to find pieces who can help those men win the day. And sometimes, many times, it is best to wait, to find a quiet place, to keep your powder dry. That may be the place we find Peter Chiarelli today. He will not trade a King for sixes and sevens and nines. This is what I believe.
TAYLOR HALL 15-16
- 5×5 points per 60: 2.31
- 5×4 points per 60: 3.28
- Corsi For 5×5 %: 51.7 (2nd among regular forwards)
- Qual Comp: toughest among regular forwards (1line opp)
- Qual Team: best teammates among regular forwards (top line)
- Corsi Rel: 12.1 (best among regular forwards)
- Shots on goal/percentage: 286/9.1
- Boxcars: 82gp, 26-39-65
Bob McKenzie publishes The Bible each spring (well, summer yesterday) and it informs the draft brilliantly. I always like to compare my list to his, so here is my top 80 with Mr. McKenzie’s following.
- C Auston Matthews, Zurich Lions (Swiss-A): BM1
- W Patrik Laine, Tappara (Sm-Liiga): BM2
- R Jesse Puljujarvi, Karpat (Sm-Liiga): BM3
- C Pierre-Luc Dubois, Cape Breton (QMJHL): BM5
- L Matthew Tkachuk, London Knights (OHL): BM4
- LD Mikhail Sergachev, Windsor Spitfires (OHL): BM9
- C Clayton Keller, USNDTP (USHL): BM8
- LD Olli Juolevi, London Knights (OHL): BM6
- LD Jakob Chychrun, Sarnia Sting (OHL): BM13
- C Logan Brown, Windsor Spitfires (OHL): BM10
- RD Dante Fabbro, Penticton (BCJHL): BM16
- L Tyson Jost, Penticton (BCJHL). BM11
- R Alexander Nylander, Mississauga (OHL): BM7
- RD Charlie McAvoy, Boston University (NCAA). BM14
- R Alex DeBrincat, Erie Otters (OHL): BM33
- C Luke Kunin, Wisconsin (NCAA): BM20
- LD Jake Bean, Calgary Hitmen (WHL): BM12
- C German Rubtsov, Team Russia (MHL). BM23
- C Pascal Laberge, Victoriaville Tigres (QMJHL) BM32
- G Carter Hart, Everett Silvertips (WHL): BM57
- L Kieffer Bellows, USNDTP (USHL). BM18
- L Adam Mascherin, Kitchener Rangers (OHL): BM53
- C Michael McLeod, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL): BM15
- R Taylor Raddysh, Erie Otters (OHL). BM42
- R Vitalii Abramov, Gatineau Olympiques (QMJHL). BM51
- LD Cam Dineen, North Bay (OHL): BM72
- C Rasmus Asplund, Farjestads (SHL). BM31
- R Julien Gauthier, Val D’Or Foreurs (QMJHL): BM17
- L Max Jones, London Knights (OHL). BM19
- C Janne Kuokkanen, Karpat (Fin Jr). BM43
- LD Lucas Johansen, Kelowna Rockets (WHL). BM28
- C Will Bitten, Flint Firebireds (OHL): BM47
- C-R Nathan Bastian, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL): BM36
- L Tyler Benson, Vancouver Giants (WHL). BM39
- G Tyler Parsons, London Knights (OHL). BM48
- LD Kale Clague, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL). BM30
- G Veini Vehvilainen, JYP (Fin 2). BM NOT RANKED
- R Maxime Fortier, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). BM NOT RANKED
- C Dillon Dube, Kelowna Rockets (WHL): BM37
- L Vladimir Kuznetsov, Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL): BM NOT RANKED
- L Jonathan Dahlen, Timra (Allsvenskan). BM62
- LD Samuel Girard, Shawinigian (QMJHL). BM45
- G Filip Gustavsson, Lulea (SHL): BM44
- C Sam Steel, Regina Pats (WHL). BM41
- L Kyle Maksimovich, Erie Otters (OHL). BM NOT RANKED
- LD Victor Mete, London Knights (OHL). BM75
- R Matthew Phillips, Victoria Royals (WHL). BM NOT RANKED
- L Riley Tufte, Fargo Force (USHL). BM21
- R Jordan Kyrou, Sarnia Sting (OHL). BM34
- RD Adam Fox, US National Team (USHL). BM55
- R Yegor Korshkov, Yaroslavl (KHL). BM65
- C Brett Howden, Moose Jaw (WHL). BM24
- C Noah Gregor, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). BM77
- C Tage Thompson, Connecticut Huskies (NCAA). BM27
- L Cameron Morrison, Youngstown (USHL). BM59
- RD David Quenneville, Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL). BM NOT RANKED
- C Dmitri Sokolov, Sudbury Wolves (OHL). BM NO RANKED
- L Boris Katchouk, SSM (OHL). BM29
- C Adam Brooks, Regina Pats (WHL). BM NOT RANKED
- RD Frederic Allard, Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL). BM NOT RANKED
- RD Filip Berglund, Skelleftea AIK (SEL). BM NOT RANKED
- C Tyler Steenbergen, Swift Current Broncos (WHL). BM NOT RANKED
- RD Filip Hronek, HK Hradec Kralove (Cze). BM49
- L Carl Grundstrom, MoDo (SHL): BM40
- L Artur Kayumov, Team Russia (MHL). BM68
- C Brandon Gignac, Shawinigan (QMJHL). BM NOT RANKED
- C Linus Lindstrom, Skelleftea (SuperElite). BM NOT RANKED
- L Simon Stransky, Prince Albert Raiders (WHL). BM NOT RANKED
- L Matthew Boucher, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL). BM NOT RANKED
- RD Luke Green, Saint John (QMJHL). BM60
- L Mitchell Mattson, Grand Rapids (USHS). BM NOT RANKED
- L Givani Smith, Guelph Storm (OHL). BM70
- C Jonathan Ang, Peterborough Petes (OHL). BM NOT RANKED
- C Otto Somppi, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). BM NOT RANKED
- LW Sebastian Repo, Pelicans (Sm-Liiga). BM NOT RANKED
- C Connor Bleackley, Red Deer Rebels (WHL). BM NOT RANKED
- C Oskar Steen, Farjestads (SuperElite). BM NOT RANKED
- LD Dennis Cholowski, Chilliwack Chiefs (BCJHL). BM25
- L Matt Filipe, Cedar Rapids (USHL). BM63
- C Kasper Bjorkqvist, Blues U20 (Jr. SML). BM79
It is important to remember that McKenzie’s list is a consensus. This is extremely valuable, because it might give us some clues about where the value lies (moneyball!) in this draft. My list has more in common with Craig Button’s but the beauty of McKenzie’s list is we should be able to find some value sweet spots:
- Goalies: Carter Hart and Veini Vehvilainen are both value picks according to my list. I doubt Edmonton takes a goalie at No. 32 but there would be some value there. The Finn might be available after pick No. 90.
- Puck-moving defender: Cam Dineen is a first-rounder by my estimate and there are all kinds of good picks in the top 80 (I like Quenneville and Berglund). Value pick in there, wonder which of these guys Oilers scouts likes more.
- Undersized forwards: Tons, beginning at Mascherin and Abramov.
- The OHL! This could be huge. If you see Chiarelli park his ass in Ontario and start reading names, expect a strong draft.
Assuming Bob McKenzie’s list is followed exactly, and that my list matches the Oilers, the club would walk away with the following on draft weekend:
- No. 4 overall (1st)—C Pierre-Luc Dubois, Cape Breton (QMJHL)
- No. 32 overall (2nd)—R Alex DeBrincat, Erie Otters (OHL)
- No. 63 overall—LD Cam Dineen, North Bay (OHL)
- No. 84 overall—G Veini Vehvilainen, JYP (Fin 2)
- No. 91 overall—R Maxime Fortier, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL)
I think Edmonton grabs a RHD in there somewhere, but other than that this is a pretty impressive list. Of course I love it, but there is skill to the sky here, plus a damned good goalie prospect. Two of the best junior scorers and a dandy offensive defenseman, and Fortier is a blur with skill. Music!
- LD Hampus Lindholm, Anaheim Ducks. Perfect fit, if available.
- PK Subban, Montreal Canadiens. If available, shoot the moon.
- Travis Hamonic, NY Islanders. Perfect fit, if available.
- Kevin Shattenkirk, St. Louis Blues. Shoot the moon—for one year?
- Jason Demers, Dallas Stars. Wilford Brimley: The right thing to do.
- Tyson Barrie, Colorado Avalanche. No idea the price.
- Radko Gudas, Philadelphia Flyers. Strong, effective defender.
- David Savard, Columbus Blue Jackets. Range of skills.
- LD Brian Campbell, Florida Panthers. Moves up with yesterday’s news.
- Damon Severson, New Jersey Devils. A nice underlying option.
- Mark Pysyk, Buffalo Sabres. The numbers imply there is a player here.
- Ryan Pulock, New York Islanders. Big shot from the point has high value. Very young.
- LD Keith Yandle, NY Rangers. Moves down with yesterday’s news.
- Ryan Murphy, Carolina Hurricanes. Some chaos, but good speed and puck-moving ability.
- Brandon Montour, Anaheim Ducks. This could be a special player.
- Cody Franson, Buffalo Sabres. That hammer from the point would come in handy and he fits a real need.
- Jordan Schmaultz, St. Louis Blues. Puck-moving prospect.
- Anthony DeAngelo, Tampa Bay Lightning. Another player with a puck-moving element to his game.
- Colin Miller, Boston Bruins. With the other Miller signing, maybe he is available.
- LD David Schlemko, New Jersey Devils. Depth D, has some nice things.
- Eric Gryba, Edmonton Oilers. I think management likes him.
- Ville Pokka, Chicago Blackhawks. Young defender in the Chicago system.
- Ryan Sproul, Detroit Red Wings. Puck-moving defender in the AHL.
- Dennis Wideman, Calgary Flames. A year removed from a fantastic offensive season.
- RD Dan Boyle, New York Rangers. Retiring, but he is the player they are looking for—early, not late in his career.
I don't see it myself. EDM is open to trading anyone except McDavid but price'd be high, maybe prohibitive for NYI: https://t.co/egCpNnGfWh
— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) June 21, 2016
I spoke to B.D. Gallof in the middle of twitter madness yesterday, he told me Garth Snow is stealth on trades. Indicated to me that NY Islanders rumors rarely result in deals and that he didn’t see a match between the two teams. Smart fellow, Gallof, I pass along this information in the hopes it gives you peace of mind entering the day.
Today we see the full Oilers schedule. I assume the guy who approved last year’s is still on a rack somewhere, but it will be good to look for fewer btb’s, a shorter layoff around the AS break, and we already know a long road trip is not included in the lid-lifter (btb with CGY).
- 5×5 points per 60: 0.51 (No. 5 on Blues)
- 5×4 points per 60: 7.92 (25 points in 189 minutes, NHL No. 1).
- Corsi for 5×5 %: 52.4
- Corsi for 5×5 % REL: 3.8
- Qual Comp: second pairing
- Qual Team: first pairing
- Shots on goal/percentage: 180/7.8
- Boxcars: 72, 14-30-44
He would clearly be a stunning addition to the power play and a safe bet to be solid or better at evens on a second pairing. Question: What would he cost? Suspect No. 4 overall or Leon might be the ask, but I believe Draisaitl is probably a non-starter in trade and that No. 4 pick has extreme value.
Do you alter your list for one year of Shattenkirk? Does Chiarelli know he can get him signed? Of all the rumors we have heard this spring, it is a summer rumor that holds my interest.
FRIGGIN IN THE RIGGIN
I hesitate to write this, because expectation should be a strong option procured for RHD defense this week. That said, if PC is finding other GMs offering low value for some of the players who could be available, we may see a quieter week than anticipated. That brings things like the threat of an offer sheet later in summer into play, and of course the Jason Demers option remains. Will I have a post at 5pm, or something sooner? We wait.