DRAFT POST 10: POWDERFINGER

by Lowetide

Connor McDavid. Taylor Hall. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Nail Yakupov, Leon Draisaitl. Darnell Nurse. All Oilers players, all selected after mind-numbing seasons of frustration. Peter Chiarelli is the caretaker of those assets, earned by losing teams playing in front of loyal fans. It is his job to stand and deliver, to find pieces who can help those men win the day. And sometimes, many times, it is best to wait, to find a quiet place, to keep your powder dry. That may be the place we find Peter Chiarelli today. He will not trade a King for sixes and sevens and nines. This is what I believe.

TAYLOR HALL 15-16

  • 5×5 points per 60: 2.31
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.28
  • Corsi For 5×5 %: 51.7 (2nd among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp:  toughest among regular forwards (1line opp)
  • Qual Team: best teammates among regular forwards (top line)
  • Corsi Rel: 12.1 (best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 286/9.1
  • Boxcars: 82gp, 26-39-65

(All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and BehindtheNet.ca)

THE MCKENZIE

Bob McKenzie publishes The Bible each spring (well, summer yesterday) and it informs the draft brilliantly. I always like to compare my list to his, so here is my top 80 with Mr. McKenzie’s following.

  1. C Auston Matthews, Zurich Lions (Swiss-A): BM1
  2. W Patrik Laine, Tappara (Sm-Liiga): BM2
  3. R Jesse Puljujarvi, Karpat (Sm-Liiga): BM3
  4. C Pierre-Luc Dubois, Cape Breton (QMJHL): BM5
  5. L Matthew Tkachuk, London Knights (OHL): BM4
  6. LD Mikhail Sergachev, Windsor Spitfires (OHL): BM9
  7. C Clayton Keller, USNDTP (USHL): BM8
  8. LD Olli Juolevi, London Knights (OHL): BM6
  9. LD Jakob Chychrun, Sarnia Sting (OHL): BM13
  10. C Logan Brown, Windsor Spitfires (OHL): BM10
  11. RD Dante Fabbro, Penticton (BCJHL): BM16
  12. L Tyson Jost, Penticton (BCJHL). BM11
  13. R Alexander Nylander, Mississauga (OHL): BM7
  14. RD Charlie McAvoy, Boston University (NCAA). BM14
  15. R Alex DeBrincat, Erie Otters (OHL): BM33
  16. C Luke Kunin, Wisconsin (NCAA): BM20
  17. LD Jake Bean, Calgary Hitmen (WHL): BM12
  18. C German Rubtsov, Team Russia (MHL). BM23
  19. C Pascal Laberge, Victoriaville Tigres (QMJHL) BM32
  20. G Carter Hart, Everett Silvertips (WHL): BM57
  21. L Kieffer Bellows, USNDTP (USHL). BM18
  22. L Adam Mascherin, Kitchener Rangers (OHL): BM53
  23. C Michael McLeod, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL): BM15
  24. R Taylor Raddysh, Erie Otters (OHL). BM42
  25. R Vitalii Abramov, Gatineau Olympiques (QMJHL). BM51
  26. LD Cam Dineen, North Bay (OHL): BM72
  27. C Rasmus Asplund, Farjestads (SHL). BM31
  28. R Julien Gauthier, Val D’Or Foreurs (QMJHL): BM17
  29. L Max Jones, London Knights (OHL). BM19
  30. C Janne Kuokkanen, Karpat (Fin Jr). BM43
  31. LD Lucas Johansen, Kelowna Rockets (WHL). BM28
  32. C Will Bitten, Flint Firebireds (OHL): BM47
  33. C-R Nathan Bastian, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL): BM36
  34. L Tyler Benson, Vancouver Giants (WHL). BM39
  35. G Tyler Parsons, London Knights (OHL). BM48
  36. LD Kale Clague, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL). BM30
  37. G Veini Vehvilainen, JYP (Fin 2). BM NOT RANKED
  38. R Maxime Fortier, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). BM NOT RANKED
  39. C Dillon Dube, Kelowna Rockets (WHL): BM37
  40. L Vladimir Kuznetsov, Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL): BM NOT RANKED
  41. L Jonathan Dahlen, Timra (Allsvenskan). BM62
  42. LD Samuel Girard, Shawinigian (QMJHL). BM45
  43. G Filip Gustavsson, Lulea (SHL): BM44
  44. C Sam Steel, Regina Pats (WHL). BM41
  45. L Kyle Maksimovich, Erie Otters (OHL). BM NOT RANKED
  46. LD Victor Mete, London Knights (OHL). BM75
  47. R Matthew Phillips, Victoria Royals (WHL). BM NOT RANKED
  48. L Riley Tufte, Fargo Force (USHL). BM21
  49. R Jordan Kyrou, Sarnia Sting (OHL). BM34
  50. RD Adam Fox, US National Team (USHL). BM55
  51. R Yegor Korshkov, Yaroslavl (KHL). BM65
  52. C Brett Howden, Moose Jaw (WHL). BM24
  53. C Noah Gregor, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). BM77
  54. C Tage Thompson, Connecticut Huskies (NCAA). BM27
  55. L Cameron Morrison, Youngstown (USHL). BM59
  56. RD David Quenneville, Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL). BM NOT RANKED
  57. C Dmitri Sokolov, Sudbury Wolves (OHL). BM NO RANKED
  58. L Boris Katchouk, SSM (OHL). BM29
  59. C Adam Brooks, Regina Pats (WHL). BM NOT RANKED
  60. RD Frederic Allard, Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL). BM NOT RANKED
  61. RD Filip Berglund, Skelleftea AIK (SEL). BM NOT RANKED
  62. C Tyler Steenbergen, Swift Current Broncos (WHL). BM NOT RANKED
  63. RD Filip Hronek, HK Hradec Kralove (Cze). BM49
  64. L Carl Grundstrom, MoDo (SHL): BM40
  65. L Artur Kayumov, Team Russia (MHL). BM68
  66. C Brandon Gignac, Shawinigan (QMJHL). BM NOT RANKED
  67. C Linus Lindstrom, Skelleftea (SuperElite). BM NOT RANKED
  68. L Simon Stransky, Prince Albert Raiders (WHL). BM NOT RANKED
  69. L Matthew Boucher, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL). BM NOT RANKED
  70. RD Luke Green, Saint John (QMJHL). BM60
  71. L Mitchell Mattson, Grand Rapids (USHS). BM NOT RANKED
  72. L Givani Smith, Guelph Storm (OHL). BM70
  73. C Jonathan Ang, Peterborough Petes (OHL). BM NOT RANKED
  74. C Otto Somppi, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). BM NOT RANKED
  75. LW Sebastian Repo, Pelicans (Sm-Liiga). BM NOT RANKED
  76. C Connor Bleackley, Red Deer Rebels (WHL). BM NOT RANKED
  77. C Oskar Steen, Farjestads (SuperElite). BM NOT RANKED
  78. LD Dennis Cholowski, Chilliwack Chiefs (BCJHL). BM25
  79. L Matt Filipe, Cedar Rapids (USHL). BM63
  80. C Kasper Bjorkqvist, Blues U20 (Jr. SML). BM79

It is important to remember that McKenzie’s list is a consensus. This is extremely valuable, because it might give us some clues about where the value lies (moneyball!) in this draft. My list has more in common with Craig Button’s but the beauty of McKenzie’s list is we should be able to find some value sweet spots:

  • Goalies: Carter Hart and Veini Vehvilainen are both value picks according to my list. I doubt Edmonton takes a goalie at No. 32 but there would be some value there. The Finn might be available after pick No. 90.
  • Puck-moving defender: Cam Dineen is a first-rounder by my estimate and there are all kinds of good picks in the top 80 (I like Quenneville and Berglund). Value pick in there, wonder which of these guys Oilers scouts likes more.
  • Undersized forwards: Tons, beginning at Mascherin and Abramov.
  • The OHL! This could be huge. If you see Chiarelli park his ass in Ontario and start reading names, expect a strong draft.

Assuming Bob McKenzie’s list is followed exactly, and that my list matches the Oilers, the club would walk away with the following on draft weekend:

  • No. 4 overall (1st)—C Pierre-Luc Dubois, Cape Breton (QMJHL)
  • No. 32 overall (2nd)—R Alex DeBrincat, Erie Otters (OHL)
  • No. 63 overall—LD Cam Dineen, North Bay (OHL)
  • No. 84 overall—G Veini Vehvilainen, JYP (Fin 2)
  • No. 91 overall—R Maxime Fortier, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL)

I think Edmonton grabs a RHD in there somewhere, but other than that this is a pretty impressive list. Of course I love it, but there is skill to the sky here, plus a damned good goalie prospect. Two of the best junior scorers and a dandy offensive defenseman, and Fortier is a blur with skill. Music!

BLUE BAYOU

  1. LD Hampus Lindholm, Anaheim Ducks. Perfect fit, if available.
  2. PK Subban, Montreal Canadiens. If available, shoot the moon.
  3. Travis Hamonic, NY Islanders. Perfect fit, if available.
  4. Kevin Shattenkirk, St. Louis Blues. Shoot the moon—for one year?
  5. Jason Demers, Dallas Stars. Wilford Brimley: The right thing to do.
  6. Tyson Barrie, Colorado Avalanche. No idea the price.
  7. Radko Gudas, Philadelphia Flyers. Strong, effective defender.
  8. David Savard, Columbus Blue Jackets. Range of skills.
  9. LD Brian Campbell, Florida Panthers. Moves up with yesterday’s news.
  10. Damon Severson, New Jersey Devils. A nice underlying option.
  11. Mark Pysyk, Buffalo Sabres. The numbers imply there is a player here.
  12. Ryan Pulock, New York Islanders. Big shot from the point has high value. Very young.
  13. LD Keith Yandle, NY Rangers. Moves down with yesterday’s news.
  14. Ryan Murphy, Carolina Hurricanes. Some chaos, but good speed and puck-moving ability.
  15. Brandon Montour, Anaheim Ducks. This could be a special player.
  16. Cody Franson, Buffalo Sabres. That hammer from the point would come in handy and he fits a real need.
  17. Jordan Schmaultz, St. Louis Blues. Puck-moving prospect.
  18. Anthony DeAngelo, Tampa Bay Lightning. Another player with a puck-moving element to his game.
  19. Colin Miller, Boston Bruins. With the other Miller signing, maybe he is available.
  20. LD David Schlemko, New Jersey Devils. Depth D, has some nice things.
  21. Eric Gryba, Edmonton Oilers. I think management likes him.
  22. Ville Pokka, Chicago Blackhawks. Young defender in the Chicago system.
  23. Ryan Sproul, Detroit Red Wings. Puck-moving defender in the AHL.
  24. Dennis Wideman, Calgary Flames. A year removed from a fantastic offensive season.
  25. RD Dan Boyle, New York Rangers. Retiring, but he is the player they are looking for—early, not late in his career.

TAYLOR HALL

I spoke to B.D. Gallof in the middle of twitter madness yesterday, he told me Garth Snow is stealth on trades. Indicated to me that NY Islanders rumors rarely result in deals and that he didn’t see a match between the two teams. Smart fellow, Gallof, I pass along this information in the hopes it gives you peace of mind entering the day.

FULL SCHEDULE

Today we see the full Oilers schedule. I assume the guy who approved last year’s is still on a rack somewhere, but it will be good to look for fewer btb’s, a shorter layoff around the AS break, and we already know a long road trip is not included in the lid-lifter (btb with CGY).

KEVIN SHATTENKIRK

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.51 (No. 5 on Blues)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 7.92 (25 points in 189 minutes, NHL No. 1).
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 52.4
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: 3.8
  • Qual Comp: second pairing
  • Qual Team: first pairing
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 180/7.8
  • Boxcars: 72, 14-30-44

He would clearly be a stunning addition to the power play and a safe bet to be solid or better at evens on a second pairing. Question: What would he cost? Suspect No. 4 overall or Leon might be the ask, but I believe Draisaitl is probably a non-starter in trade and that No. 4 pick has extreme value.

Do you alter your list for one year of Shattenkirk? Does Chiarelli know he can get him signed? Of all the rumors we have heard this spring, it is a summer rumor that holds my interest.

FRIGGIN IN THE RIGGIN

I hesitate to write this, because expectation should be a strong option procured for RHD defense this week. That said, if PC is finding other GMs offering low value for some of the players who could be available, we may see a quieter week than anticipated. That brings things like the threat of an offer sheet later in summer into play, and of course the Jason Demers option remains. Will I have a post at 5pm, or something sooner? We wait.

DEMERS AND FAULK

 

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Bruce McCurdy

Bag of Pucks: Adjusting for GPs (over last 3 seasons)

Player GPs +/–perGP
Hall 210 -20 -10.5
RNH 211 -33 -6.39
Eberle 230 -39 -5.89
Schultz 210 -59 -3.55
Yak 204 -84 -2.42

And yes, comparing the players on the same team (goal differential wise) is what I’m after here.

You got your numerators and denominators flipped, and your stats are exactly backwards in terms of best to worst. Not sure what your argument is but it isn’t helped with this output.

Bruce McCurdy

Jethro Tull: Bruce, were you on CBC radio talking about the ‘Strawberry’ moon yesterday afternoon?

Yep, that was me.

Bag of Pucks

Woodguy: That’s why you always spread horse shit.

Much sweeter smell than bovine shit.

Credit where credit due: You know your shit.

AsiaOil

Younger Oil,

Taylor Hall is an elite ES player – top 10 in the league – plus he has a bit of grit to his game and has shown more effort and reliability defensively in recent years. Eberle doesn’t add much outside the offensive zone and PP. Hall is not, and never has been an elite PP guy. Would be nice if he had that but he still puts up elite numbers at ES where most of the game is played.

rickithebear

Bag of Pucks: What do we make of the fact Eberle plays largely against the same opposition as Hall and Nuge but has a worse career +/-?

First 17gm Renney -7
Last 130gm 48G 59A 107P Even

Kruger
First 16gm -5
last 32gm +1

Eakins 110gm -24

Nelson 46gm -2

TMac
first 13gm -11
Last 56 -1

Year 2 is when you start to see Higher production and stable PvP play.

Oh wait he is a PvP player not sheltered like Kane ; Seguin; Tavares; ……..

Woodguy

TheOrangeDesk:
Has anyone calculated the effect puck moving Dmen have on forwards box cars? even looking at Hall playing with klefbom vs playing with a schultz or Gryba would be interesting. forget their overall skill level. passing alone just increase his scoring like crazy

Now remember that these Dmen play as partners so some are zooming the others.

Also remember that when playing with certain Dmen you *know* the comp on the ice isn’t that good. (offensive zone starts at home ftw!)

Hall’s GF/60 (5v5 goals for per 60 min played) last 4 years with various Dmen:

Player GF60
HALL, TAYLOR 2.83
SCHULTZ, JUSTIN 3.43
PETRY, JEFF 2.07
FERENCE, ANDREW 3.01
FAYNE, MARK 2.63
KLEFBOM, OSCAR 2.90
SCHULTZ, NICK 2.39
SEKERA, ANDREJ 2.60
NURSE, DARNELL 2.99
MARINCIN, MARTIN 2.20
SMID, LADISLAV 3.45
DAVIDSON, BRANDON 3.36
GRYBA, ERIC 2.99
BELOV, ANTON 3.01
NIKITIN, NIKITA 2.12
POTTER, COREY 3.43
WHITNEY, RYAN 3.24
REINHART, GRIFFIN 2.83
LARSEN, PHILIP 2.68

For an nice foil, let’s look at Kane:
Player GF60
KANE, PATRICK 3.05
KEITH, DUNCAN 3.58
SEABROOK, BRENT 2.99
HJALMARSSON, NIKLAS 2.74
ODUYA, JOHNNY 1.90
ROZSIVAL, MICHAL 3.58
LEDDY, NICK 3.02
VAN_RIEMSDYK, TREVOR 2.92
BROOKBANK, SHELDON 2.74
RUNDBLAD, DAVID 4.01
GUSTAFSSON, ERIK 3.18
SVEDBERG, VIKTOR 3.78
DALEY, TREVOR 4.22
SCUDERI, ROB 0.00

rickithebear

The core lacks character!
Bull shit!
Bull shit!
talking out their ass!

Eberle is a terrible PPP player.

10-11 Renney
Ebs #89 3.92 PPP/60; Hornist; Ladd; Kessel; Lucic
Hall #134 3.27 Kopitar ; Tanguay; alfredsson

11-12 Renney
#1 RNH 7.30
#8 Hall 5.95
#49 Eberle 4.78 Thorton; O’Rielly ; D. Sedin; Getzlaf

12-13 Kruger
#19 Gagner 6.17
#23 Hemsky 6.03
#28 Hall 5.74 Vrbata Neal; Tavares; S. Koivu
#54 RNH 4.91 Crosby ; Couture; Marleau; Perry
#120 Eberle 3.51 Sequin; kovulchuk; Nash

13-14: Eakins
#46 RNH 4.85 Seguin; McKinnon; Statsny; Wheeler; Kopitar
#54 Eberle 4.72 Brouwer; Lecavalier; Marleau; F. Nielson
#78 Hall 4.29 Kessel; Duchene; Bergeron; Skinner

14-15: Eakins; MacT: Nelson Oilers PP #3 pace under Nelson
#17 Eberle 5.85
#94 Purcell 3.91
#107 RNH 3.62
#107 pouliot 3.62

15-26 TMceakins
#14 Mcdavid 6.13
#66 pouliot 4.39 Tavares; Galcheyuk; Eriksson
#101 Letestu 3.92 M.stone; Duchene; Wheeler; H. Sedin
#121 Eberle 3.62
#125 Maroon 3.58
#126 RNH 3.57
#138 Hall 3.36

An elite coach would run different systems for PP units versus a team.

NecrOILmancer

Bag of Pucks: Adjusting for GPs (over last 3 seasons)
Player GPs +/- -perGP
Hall 210 -20 -10.5

Scratched my head a bit at this. Your final column is (games-played per minus), you’ve labelled it backwards. Though I think (minuses per games-played) is closer to being intuitive.

Of course, you really want (minuses per minutes-played) as their ice time is quite different
–> probably (minuses per 60-minutes-played) would produce numbers that are a little easier on the eye.

Chris

I disagree with Frank Serevelli Demers 5.5 million dollar ask is not off putting. I find it encouraging. Were I the Oilers I’d have a contract drawn up and his agents number on the fax machine at the opening of free agency.

Bag of Pucks

Caramel Batman: No, it’s not.It’s illustrative of who plays against players who can score.Guys who play against 4th line low event types (i.e. other 4th line players) will look like reasonable defensive players when they aren’t.

Eberle is a better defensive player than Pakarinen, for instance, simply because the puck is going to be farther away from the net when Eberle is on the ice.

Same is true about Kessel.It was always true about Kessel.Little has changed but the narrative.

Select on the offensive variable.Always.

What do we make of the fact Eberle plays largely against the same opposition as Hall and Nuge but has a worse career +/-?

Cassandra

That said, I’d trade Eberle for Hamonic, but not because Eberle is a bad defensive player or some other such nonsense.

Bag of Pucks

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Leaving aside the overall issues of +/- you should at least factor games played.

And all that tells us is where players rank within a bad team. For example, if Hall, Draisaitl and McDavid outscore Nuge at evens but all 4 are top 100 NHL even strength scorers, that does not make Nuge a mediocre NHL even strength scorer, know what I mean?

All your list shows us is a set of numbers with no context. So, I have no dog in this fight here, but it would seem to me you are capable of a stronger argument than this.

Adjusting for GPs (over last 3 seasons)

Player GPs +/- -perGP
Hall 210 -20 -10.5
RNH 211 -33 -6.39
Eberle 230 -39 -5.89
Schultz 210 -59 -3.55
Yak 204 -84 -2.42

And yes, comparing the players on the same team (goal differential wise) is what I’m after here.

Cassandra

Bag of Pucks: It’s illustrative of who the worst defensive players on the team are. The fact that Eberle’s +/- is demonstrably worse that RNH and Hall in particular is damning given the fact he often plays with them and against similar opposition.

Over a long sample size, Eberle is one of the Oiler Fs that most gives it away on the defensive side.

No, it’s not. It’s illustrative of who plays against players who can score. Guys who play against 4th line low event types (i.e. other 4th line players) will look like reasonable defensive players when they aren’t.

Eberle is a better defensive player than Pakarinen, for instance, simply because the puck is going to be farther away from the net when Eberle is on the ice.

Same is true about Kessel. It was always true about Kessel. Little has changed but the narrative.

Select on the offensive variable. Always.

NecrOILmancer

Woodguy:
AsiaOil,

Hell even Kessel found Jesus in the playoff this year. He’s twice as offensively gifted than any of our RW and had to bounce around multiple times before “getting it”.

Kessel ‘s first 22 playoff games 21pts

Kessel ‘s 24 playoff games this year 22pts

Looks like he had Jesus the whole time.

There aren’t enough style points in the world to properly rank this comment.

Woodguy

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: He is leaving Florida because he wants 3 years and they would only go 2. Not saying he will get 3 but he is going to get at least 2. Too much risk for him at his age to take 1 year, unless rumours he wants to go back to Chicago if they can take him are true.

I believe all that.

Woodguy

RexLibris: I should have chosen pig. That first season smelled like pig.

I’ve had to shovel pig shit.

Nothing like it except for compost that hasn’t been turned in months.

Man.

Woodguy

RexLibris: I think he’d have to lay a Flame out with a huge hit along the boards.

Oiler fans seem to really love the truculence and pugnacity.

Maybe fold Gaudreau like an accordion in the home opener?

Woodguy

Younger Oil,

Eberle has ice water in his veins 10 feet from the net.

If he had a one timer he might score 40.

Woodguy: Acquiring Campbell for only cap space >>>>> trading for Greene.

I’d offer Campbell a nice 1 year deal even though he’s LHD

He is leaving Florida because he wants 3 years and they would only go 2. Not saying he will get 3 but he is going to get at least 2. Too much risk for him at his age to take 1 year, unless rumours he wants to go back to Chicago if they can take him are true.

RexLibris

Woodguy: That’s why you always spread horse shit.

Much sweeter smell than bovine shit.

I should have chosen pig. That first season smelled like pig.

RexLibris

Lowetide is fond of saying the beating will continue until morale improves.

Seems he isn’t alone: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/21/chinese-bank-staff-spanked-poor-performance-course-video

Woodguy

RexLibris: Agreed.

This team’s defense since 2010 has been the roster equivalent of steer manure still steaming spread six inches deep across the lawn in the hopes that something wonderful would grow.

Takes a while for the nostrils to clear.

That’s why you always spread horse shit.

Much sweeter smell than bovine shit.

RexLibris

Woodguy: If Hall scored *slightly* above average on the PP there would already be a statue of him in Edmonton.

I think he’d have to lay a Flame out with a huge hit along the boards.

Oiler fans seem to really love the truculence and pugnacity.

Woodguy

Jethro Tull: So no Brian Campbell either.I wonder what’s going to give in the next few days.

Acquiring Campbell for only cap space >>>>> trading for Greene.

I’d offer Campbell a nice 1 year deal even though he’s LHD

Woodguy

Ca$h-McMoney!: To bring it back to my post from this morning, this is why I like Faulk.

He’s playing with the shittiest forward corps in the NHL and scoring a bunch. Maybe 3rd shittiest, Ottawa and NJ are right up there.

I also seem to recall a bunch of stats-inclined folks praising his defense prior to this season, though I can’t say that for certain.

I had him as one of the best offensive Dmen who played top pairing and one of the worse defensively.

A lot of shots come from the slot when he’s on the ice.

#MrTheBearIsRight

I still like him a lot because he drives shots for like a madman

Younger Oil

Woodguy: If Hall scored *slightly* above average on the PP there would already be a statue of him in Edmonton.

I agree, like Hall is obviously the superior player to Eberle, it just kind of pisses me off when people are trying to create the narrative that Eberle is not an offensively gifted player, and doesn’t produce as a first line forward when he does.

Like obviously you trade Eberle before Hall, but using PPP/60 to say that Eberle is only as good as Letestu on the powerplay, which makes him a player that is not worthwhile, while simultaneously ignoring that Hall was below both of them was just a lousy argument so I was just pointing it out to show how silly this whole thing is.

If a trade makes your team better, do it. If it doesn’t, don’t do it. It’s that simple.

Doug McLachlan

Woodguy:
AsiaOil,

Hell even Kessel found Jesus in the playoff this year. He’s twice as offensively gifted than any of our RW and had to bounce around multiple times before “getting it”.

Kessel ‘s first 22 playoff games 21pts

Kessel ‘s 24 playoff games this year 22pts

Looks like he had Jesus the whole time.

My understanding is that the before and after Jesus is both very similar and very different so the comparison may well be apt.

RexLibris

jake70: You got a problem with Cam Barker?Kurtis Foster?? lol

My list of blueline bright spots during that time is short.

Andy Sutton was one.

RPG

Woodguy, Thanks WG, those numbers are stunning actually.

Ari

Woodguy:
AsiaOil,

Hell even Kessel found Jesus in the playoff this year. He’s twice as offensively gifted than any of our RW and had to bounce around multiple times before “getting it”.

Kessel ‘s first 22 playoff games 21pts

Kessel ‘s 24 playoff games this year 22pts

Looks like he had Jesus the whole time.

This made me laugh out loud. Awesome…

Woodguy

Younger Oil: Funny that you’re making those powerplay arguments when Hall’s PPP/60 was 3.28.

These are the numbers – you can’t sugar coat them or make them go away.

Trade the bum!

If Hall scored *slightly* above average on the PP there would already be a statue of him in Edmonton.

Bag of Pucks:
Career +/- with the Oilers

Hall -27
RNH -32
Eberle -51
Schultz -78
Yakupov -88

Over larger sample sizes, it’s amazing how well +/- correlates with what our eyes are seeing.

My bad, Eberle isn’t bad defensively, at least not Schultz/Yakupov level bad. He’s more like stunningly mediocre as a 200ft player.

Leaving aside the overall issues of +/- you should at least factor games played.

And all that tells us is where players rank within a bad team. For example, if Hall, Draisaitl and McDavid outscore Nuge at evens but all 4 are top 100 NHL even strength scorers, that does not make Nuge a mediocre NHL even strength scorer, know what I mean?

All your list shows us is a set of numbers with no context. So, I have no dog in this fight here, but it would seem to me you are capable of a stronger argument than this.

Woodguy

RPG:
Woodguy, What is Primary Points/60? Asking for a friend.

Goals + 1st assists.

Doesn’t include 2nd assists.

Theory is that since goals and 1st assists show much more correlation from year to year that they are better to use than all points (incl. 2nd assists) for evaluation offence in small samples.

Fun fact:

If you only count Hall’s goals and 1st assists (remove his 2nd assists) he STILL scores 5v5 at an average 1st line player.

Amazing talent.

Bag of Pucks

Jethro Tull: Using +/- as individual indicators of performance is unwise.

This has, after all been the worst team in hockey for a few years.

I think even Sid the Kid would struggle to break even with some of the pylons that have dressed for the Oil since he came into the league.

It’s illustrative of who the worst defensive players on the team are. The fact that Eberle’s +/- is demonstrably worse that RNH and Hall in particular is damning given the fact he often plays with them and against similar opposition.

Over a long sample size, Eberle is one of the Oiler Fs that most gives it away on the defensive side.

Jethro Tull

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=93039

Phil Kessel’s +/- stats.

Awesome on good teams.

Crappy on bad ones.

Jethro Tull

Bag of Pucks:
Career +/- with the Oilers

Hall -27
RNH -32
Eberle -51
Schultz -78
Yakupov -88

Over larger sample sizes, it’s amazing how well +/- correlates with what our eyes are seeing.

My bad, Eberle isn’t bad defensively, at least not Schultz/Yakupov level bad. He’s more like stunningly mediocre as a 200ft player.

Using +/- as individual indicators of performance is unwise.

This has, after all been the worst team in hockey for a few years.

I think even Sid the Kid would struggle to break even with some of the pylons that have dressed for the Oil since he came into the league.

Woodguy

AsiaOil,

Hell even Kessel found Jesus in the playoff this year. He’s twice as offensively gifted than any of our RW and had to bounce around multiple times before “getting it”.

Kessel ‘s first 22 playoff games 21pts

Kessel ‘s 24 playoff games this year 22pts

Looks like he had Jesus the whole time.

Bag of Pucks

Career +/- with the Oilers

Hall -27
RNH -32
Eberle -51
Schultz -78
Yakupov -88

Over larger sample sizes, it’s amazing how well +/- correlates with what our eyes are seeing.

My bad, Eberle isn’t bad defensively, at least not Schultz/Yakupov level bad. He’s more like stunningly mediocre as a 200ft player.

jake70

The mayor of Las Vegas now on PrimeTimeSports, calling it “ice hockey”….oh dear.

kinger_OIL: – In terms of game theory: I think you get max value by waiting untill the #3 is picked, rather than cut a deal prior to the draft…

– How long are they on the clock between picks?10 minutes.That could be a neat 10 mins….

game theory: I know. The pick shouldn’ be traded before then.

having the most info on potential moves helps to formulate the best plan.

So everyone hopes he is shopping the pick but waits until #3 is picked to make a deal with the pick if he is going to deal it.

You asked who is hoping… my answer is “everyone.”

jake70

RexLibris: Agreed.

This team’s defense since 2010 has been the roster equivalent of steer manure still steaming spread six inches deep across the lawn in the hopes that something wonderful would grow.

Takes a while for the nostrils to clear.

You got a problem with Cam Barker? Kurtis Foster?? lol

RexLibris

Woodguy: with the shittiest dcrops in the NHL

Agreed.

This team’s defense since 2010 has been the roster equivalent of steer manure still steaming spread six inches deep across the lawn in the hopes that something wonderful would grow.

Takes a while for the nostrils to clear.

Drew

Younger Oil: Funny that you’re making those powerplay arguments when Hall’s PPP/60 was 3.28.

These are the numbers – you can’t sugar coat them or make them go away.

Trade the bum!


I believe the thought is he is a ES beast (best???) so hugely overcompensates for this. While Ebs not so much. I like Ebs but he is the Steve Austin i move if one of them has to go.

kinger_OIL

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: – Who is hoping that Chia is working on a deal with the draft pick, but waits untill the #3 is selected?

—-
What I mean is I don’t see anyone saying trade the pick, but DON’T wait until #3 is selected. Therefore EVERYONE would hope Chia is at least working on a deal (to explore his options) but doesn’t make any moves until we know who is available at #4.

So I think the answer to your question is “everyone.”

– In terms of game theory: I think you get max value by waiting untill the #3 is picked, rather than cut a deal prior to the draft…

– How long are they on the clock between picks? 10 minutes. That could be a neat 10 mins….

RexLibris

Lowetide: That reporter is a frequent guest of mine!! No firings!

Are you suggesting that is punishment enough?

*that banning will be coming through any time now*

Woodguy

TheOrangeDesk:
Has anyone calculated the effect puck moving Dmen have on forwards box cars? even looking at Hall playing with klefbom vs playing with a schultz or Gryba would be interesting. forget their overall skill level. passing alone just increase his scoring like crazy

I put up some interesting numbers when I get to a desk top and off my phone.

Jethro Tull

Woodguy: Not much.

He’s LH and he’s 34 this year.

So no Brian Campbell either. I wonder what’s going to give in the next few days.

Younger Oil

AsiaOil:
Younger Oil,

ESP/60 and PPP/60 are not “cherry-picked” stats – these are the most representative numbers of offensive contribution since it gives you a sense of results produced for the amount of time on the ice.

There is this idea that Eberle is an offensive juggernaut and this excuses his defensive gaffs and lack of effort. It doesn’t. Here is an example. Last year Mark Letestu had 11 PP points in 160 minutes for a PPP/60 of 4.11. We all hated seeing him on the ice 5 on 4. But Eberle only scored 12 PP points in 173 minutes of PP time for a PPP/60 of 4.17. So Eberle was basically as effective on the PP as Letestu last season – but we all blame Letestu and the coach for how bad the PP sucked. How about the $6 million man?

These are the numbers – you can’t sugar coat them or make them go away – Eberle was about as good as Letestu on the PP last season. His ES numbers are also mediocre given who he is playing with and the goals against. Trading Hall and keeping Eberle would set this team back years and probably result in CMD not resigning after his ELC is up.

Funny that you’re making those powerplay arguments when Hall’s PPP/60 was 3.28.

These are the numbers – you can’t sugar coat them or make them go away.

Trade the bum!

Ca$h-McMoney!

Woodguy: with the shittiest dcrops in the NHL

To bring it back to my post from this morning, this is why I like Faulk.

He’s playing with the shittiest forward corps in the NHL and scoring a bunch. Maybe 3rd shittiest, Ottawa and NJ are right up there.

I also seem to recall a bunch of stats-inclined folks praising his defense prior to this season, though I can’t say that for certain.

Jethro Tull

Bag of Pucks: My point is you can swap out Eberle for a D, pick up Okposo in FA and you’re a better club for it (Okposo is better defensively and yes, bigger, and thus better at a cycle game too). If things are relatively equal production and skill wise, why wouldn’t you take the bigger player?

Signing Okposo and drafting Dubois (in addition to Maroon and Drai) really sets this club up to compete in the west. Every one of those players has the skill/size combo the Oil have been lacking.

It’s not just MOAR BIGGAR. Ebs is an ineffective, inconsistent player defensively. He’s not the fastest F and he cheats for O at times, and gets caught doing it.

I know we’ve talked about this before, and nothing I can say or prove will sway you, so we’ll agree to disagree.

I think the ‘defensively irresponsible’ epithet is tossed around far too easily at players we don’t, for whatever reason, like. But consider this. The way Chicago and LA and Pittsburgh play is that the forwards don’t HAVE to be defensively responsible as the puck is out of their d-zone as quick as possible to the forwards. If Eberle is behind his own net crushing Pat Kane, then a goal against is coming up. Tyson Barrie, or someone like him, hitting Eberle on the half way line for an o-zone entry is where it’s at in the new NHL my friend.