TOP 20 PROSPECTS, SUMMER 2016

by Lowetide

The 2016 entry draft is over, the Edmonton Oilers delivered several quality prospects to a list that badly needed an infusion of real talent. When a team drafts high every summer—and graduates that prospect every fall—there isn’t much bubbling under year to year. This weekend went a long way to shoring up the system. Edmonton entered the spring with a real need for forwards—specifically wingers—and as you can see below there are several new recruits of varying quality.

TOP 20, SUMMER 2015

  1. C Connor McDavid
  2. C Leon Draisaitl—graduated
  3. D Darnell Nurse—graduated
  4. D Griffin Reinhart
  5. C Bogdan Yakimov
  6. W Iiro Pakarinen—graduated
  7. C Kyle Platzer
  8. C-R Greg Chase
  9. L Anton Slepyshev
  10. D Ethan Bear
  11. G Laurent Brossoit
  12. D Joey Laleggia
  13. D Dillon Simpson
  14. G Eetu Laurikainen
  15. R Andrew Miller—gone via free agency July 1
  16. D Jordan Oesterle
  17. D Caleb Jones
  18. C Jujhar Khaira
  19. R Tyler Pitlick
  20. D William Lagesson

Now on to this year’s list. A few rules that may answer some questions for you:

  • Players over 50 games graduate (a long list, including Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, Brandon Davidson, others—but not McDavid, who has not played 50 NHL games).
  • Players who have been traded no longer appear (Anders Nilsson).
  • List is based on potential and gives zero weight to being close to NHL-ready.
  • Previous ranking in brackets (previous ranking is from Winter 2015)
  • This list likes offense.
  • This list also likes prospects who can make the NHL in more than one way.
  • This list punishes lack of speed.

TOP 20 PROSPECTS, SUMMER 2016

  1. (1) C Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers (45, 16-32-48). Makes the list on a technicality, he is a blur. It is rare in sports to see a player this unique to all who have come before him. Generational talent.
  2. (NR) R Jesse Puljujarvi, Karpat (50, 13-15-28). Red Line Report: Big horse looks and plays like a Mats Sundin clone. What pleases me most about this selection is that he is truly unique when placed beside the other gifted forwards on this team. Size, speed, skill—and at least some two-way acumen. This is more than any of us could have hoped for. Two-way power forward.
  3. (15) LD Ziyat Paigin, Kazan Ak Bars and Sochi HC (45, 9-19-28). One giant leap from the winter rankings, but he earned it. Upon his arrival in Sochi, he was placed in a feature role and blossomed. He is not coming over this fall, and it will be good to see if he can repeat last year’s spike. NHL equivalency is 41 points Big man, big talent?
  4. (NR) L Tyler Benson, Vancouver Giants (30, 9-19-28). This blog loves two-way talent and Benson brings that and an agitating style. I am trusting that the organization has poked and prodded and are sure of him—this ranking is based on good health moving forward. I am fairly confident he will bring enough offense to the NHL to make it as a complementary offensive player. You want to see that potential in the coming season. Smart, aggressive two-way player.
  5. (NR) L Drake Cagguila, North Dakota (39, 25-26-51). He is a fascinating prospect, bringing speed and skill to a team that needs complementary wingers. Has a real chance here in Edmonton. Flyers GM Ron Hextall:  “He’s got speed, he plays hard, he has a lot of good attributes.  He’s got a shot at being a top six (player) based on his ability. He’s not the biggest player, but he plays hard.” Opportunity knocks.
  6. (9) RD Ethan Bear, Seattle Thunderbirds (69, 19-46-65). Delivered a terrific season offensively, reports have him improving defensively. Long road to go, but he does seem to have some imagination with the puck (and a great shot). One of the few D on this list who may in fact see some NHL power-play time should he continue to develop. Promising two-way prospect.
  7. (13) LD Caleb Jones, Portland Winterhawks (72, 10-45-55). Speed and size are his calling card, and if this offense is real Jones could be an absolute steal. Better skater than Bear, less creativity with the puck and less defensive acumen. Still a long road for both but this was an encouraging season on many levels. WheatnOil wrote a fabulous item on Jones and Bear recently. Impressive across the board skills.
  8. (12) C Jujhar Khaira, Edmonton Oilers (15, 0-2-2) and Bakersfield Condors (49, 10-17-27). A very encouraging season from the big forward (he is 6.03, 214), very impressive in both cities. Khaira has good speed, meaning he is somewhat unique on this list (among big forwards)—or was, until this weekend. (0.347 primary points per game, Nikita Soshnikov and Ryan Hartman are similar in age and performance. Those two men should have NHL futures, a good sign for Khaira). Emerging big forward.
  9. (NR) RD Filip Berglund, Skelleftea AIK (43, 19-22-41) (SuperElite). This is a very nice player. Berglund passed through last year’s draft and then spiked with the totals you see here. A mobile defender with size, puck passing ability and a fine shot. Scouting reports describe him as an effective, responsible defender. A lot to like about this player. Another blue with a range of skills. 
  10. (5) LD Griffin Reinhart, Edmonton Oilers (29, 0-1-1) and Bakersfield Condors (30, 2-8-10). He continued his development in both pro leagues, and may do the same thing next season. The big part of his value is likely to be defensive, he looked more comfortable at the NHL level during his last recall of the year. Developing shutdown defenseman.
  11. (NR) RC Aapeli Rasanen, Tappara U20 (50, 19-19-38) (Jr. Sm-Liiga). RH center with a wide range of skills, right there in the sixth round where they all hang out! Pronman had him well inside his top 100 overall and called him a smart center. Fantastic late pick. Perfect fit pivot.
  12. (6) G Laurent Brossoit, Edmonton Oilers (5, 3.61 .873) and Bakersfield Condors (31, 2.66 .920). Had another strong AHL season and should be close to NHL-ready. Internal solutions (although he was a trade acquisition) are rare for Edmonton at this position. Emerging goaltender.
  13. (23) LD Jordan Oesterle, Edmonton Oilers (17, 0-5-5) and Bakersfield Condors (44, 4-21-25). He impressed the hell out of me with his speed in year one, and with his speed and progress in year two. I think he might make it, has a new contract that makes him a more attractive NHL option if money becomes too tight to mention. Speed works on offense and defense.
  14. (NR) LD Markus Niemelainen, Saginaw Spirit (65, 1-26-27). Big man with good speed, he is able to make plays with the puck if you believe Corey Pronman (I do). Expect he will be better offensively next season (one goal in 89 shots is impressive but not in the good way). I think it fair to suggest there was great value on the board when he was taken, but absolutely believe this player has value. Mobile, modern defensive defenseman?
  15. (4) R Anton Slepyshev, Edmonton Oilers (11, 0-1-1) and Bakersfield Condors (49, 13-8-21). His path to the NHL got more complicated this weekend—although it is possible for Puljujarvi and Slepyshev to have roles on the future Oilers. You can see why scouts like him, the combination of size and skill are compelling. He needs another strong TC and some luck. (0.271 primary points per game, Emile Poirier is similar in age and performance). Offensive winger needs to be more offensive.
  16. (NR) L Graham McPhee, U.S. National Development Team (20, 5-0-5). This is another two-way forward (three in this draft) and a more substantial prospect than his fifth-round selection may imply. Pronman believes he is underrated as a scorer and he was buried on the deepest amateur team on the planet (narrowly beating out the London Knights). Two-way winger with real promise.
  17. (29) L Josh Winquist, Bakersfield Condors (35, 8-22-30). He appears to be a legit pro scorer who is being framed as a tweener due to size. You keep working, young man. His even strength primary points-per-game in the AHL (0.343) is in the range with Dan Catenacci (11 NHL games) and Tanner Richard (0 NHL games)—both men about his age. He has a better chance (imo) than a bushel of Oilers draft picks who are signed. All he does is point crooked numbers.
  18. (18) LD Dillon Simpson, Bakersfield Condors (57, 4-16-20). Went 18, 2-6-8 to end the season, suggesting a more prominent offensive role. Coach Gerry Fleming mentioned his fine, consistent play at the end of the year. No idea if he makes it, but there is no lack of effort or attention to detail. Stealth development, but it is working. 
  19. (NR) LD Matthew Cairns, Georgetown Raiders (46, 9-24-33) (OJHL). Big defender (6.02, 202) is a two-way type based on the scouting reports I have read. Good speed, can make a solid first pass and has a plus shot. He is mobile enough to defend. Now, the level he is playing currently is the reason he ranks here—despite having offensive promise. Intriguing two-way defender.
  20. (17) LD Joey Laleggia, Bakersfield Condors (63, 8-19-27). Posted the best offensive numbers among Condors rookies this season. Laleggia can move the puck and has creativity, the defensive game is going to be his issue. He can scoot, and with Brad Hunt likely gone (and Oesterle possibly in Edmonton) he might spike with the PP push. Impressive puck-moving defenseman.
  21. (20) RD John Marino, Tri-City Storm (56, 5-25-30). A smooth skater with a range of skills, we are years away from knowing him as a player. Indicator lights look good, and he is a rare righty. Marino has promising offense but we will know far more about him this time next season (he is off to Harvard in the fall). Two-way defender building intriguing resume.
  22. (25) R Tyler Pitlick, Bakersfield Condors (37, 7-14-21). I will be the last to give up on him, this young man has a terrible time staying healthy long enough to be counted on. Even strength primary points-per-game in the AHL (0.361) is in the range with Ty Rattie and all of the other wingers having a hard time catching on with an NHL team. At some level, it is a lot about luck for players like Pitlick. Always looked like a player to me.
  23. (16) LD William Lagesson, UMass-Amherst (27, 2-5-7). Mobile defender impressed Oilers fans at the world juniors, and looks like his defensive skills are the greatest part of his game. Edmonton has so many of these guys it is impossible to estimate who will and who will not emerge. A solid young defender lost in the Leftorium.
  24. (NR) R Patrick Russell, St. Cloud State (41, 20-21-41). College free-agent signing has size (6.01, 205) and skill. He is an older prospect (23) so his time is now, but there are opportunities on this roster. Skating appears to be the item on the resume that is concerning. The man can score.
  25. (11) C Bogdan Yakimov, Bakersfield Condors (36, 5-10-15) and Nizhnekamsk Neftekhimik (11, 3-1-4). A giant (6.05, 232) center, he would seem to be a useful player when he develops, but the offense didn’t spike in year two and speed is a concern (both items separating him from the other Russian prospect). (0.257 primary points per game, Zach Nastasiuk is similar in age and performance). Disappointing season from big man.
  26. (14) RC Kyle Platzer, Bakersfield Condors (48, 6-11-17). Two-way C entered pro hockey after a strong final season in junior, and then didn’t play a whole bunch based on estimates (13+ minutes according to Prospect-Stats). He should get a bigger shot this season and hopefully takes advantage. (0.128 primary points per game). The man needs at-bats.
  27. (19) R Greg Chase, Bakersfield Condors (19, 1-6-7) and Norfolk Admirals (43, 18-19-37). I think he was fortunate last season. Edmonton sent him to Double-A and played him, meaning he got plenty of work. If he can push his way onto the AHL roster and have offensive success, Chase could move up this ranking in a big way by next summer. Played less than (estimated) 12 minutes a night in the AHL this year. (0.222 primary points per game). Agitating winger still has a chance.
  28. (NR) L Jere Salinen, Jokerit (50, 8-11-19). NHLE is 10-15-25, plays throwback style. Energy player, checker, unlikely to do something crazy like score 20 goals, has gumption. Finn flood began with this guy.
  29. (NR) G Nick Ellis, Providence (36, 1.80 .936). Edmonton’s college goalie signing this spring posted some nice numbers, and may have contributed to the drafting of Desharnais. Too soon to know.
  30. (21) D David Musil, Bakersfield Condors (67, 3-11-14). Big man is an shutdown defender in the AHL, looking for his NHL chance. The Oilers added three guys like him this weekend—two of whom appear to be better skaters—so judgement cometh and we wait for that day. Oilers sure like giving him competition.
  31. (32) G Miroslav Svoboda, Havirov (8, 4.51 .867) and HC Sumperk (21, 3.05 .924). He was struggling with one Czech team—got traded to another—and then had a strong run through the end of the season and through the playoffs. Early days, but good arrows in draft+1 season. Should not be overlooked—this was a solid year.
  32. (40) C Marco Roy, Bakersfield Condors (42, 8-12-20). He is a good checker but the offense is going to be a problem. His even strength primary points-per-game in the AHL (0.244) is equal to Laurent Dauphin and Michael Bunting. Effective checker, needs more O.
  33. (NR) G Dylan Wells, Peterborough Petes (27, 4.59 .871) (OHL). I would like to believe he is going to be a fine pro goalie and I respect Brock Otten a great deal. Future Considerations calls him a project goalie, and I am afraid I agree. Cheering like mad, Dylan Wells! Curio.
  34. (35) G Zach Nagelvoort, Michigan (11, 2.99 .893). The most disappointing pick from the 2014 draft because his draft day totals looked good, Nagelvoort still has time to turn things around. Big season ahead.
  35. (NR) RD Vincent DeSharnais, Providence College (19, 1-1-2) (Hockey East). Steve Kournianos: Very big, skates awkward but makes good first pass. Not physical, no way on the PP. Best thing he does is stand people up, use long stick to jar puck loose during board play. Doesn’t have Paigin’s shot/skill. They must have seen something.
  36. (NR) W Joey Benik, St. Cloud State (41, 23-25-48). He is 5.10, 175 and a pretty solid college scorer. AHL contract, long row to hoe but you never know. He can post offense.
  37. (27) L Mitch Moroz, Bakersfield Condors (40, 5-5-10). His even strength primary points-per-game in the AHL (0.231) is about equal to Taylor Leier and Marko Dano—who are about his age. Leier has an NHL cup of coffee, Dano continues to climb the NHL ladder (34 NHL games and a trade last year). Moroz needs to establish himself as a reliable, physical winger and is two-thirds of the way through entry-level deal. Big year ahead.
  38. (22) G Eetu Laurikainen, Bakersfield Condors (18, 3.42 .907). He struggled at times with AHL-level opposition, but survived and may hang around in North America again this year. May see ECHL action if Brossoit fails to win NHL job. End of the pro depth chart in goal.
  39. (28) F Tyler Vesel, Nebraska-Omaha (35, 6-12-18). The offensive spike in his final USHL season has not resulted in college success—but icetime may be a factor. College forward needs to turn north as a prospect.
  40. (24) L Kale Kessy, Bakersfield Condors (56, 7-5-12). Kessy had an even strength primary points-per-game in the AHL (0.182) that put him in the company of Stefan Noesen who is about the same age. It is not a good area to be in at this age, and he is RFA. Injuries have no doubt impacted his career, the promise of 2014-15 (early season) is a distant bell. Crossroads.
  41. (30) C Alexis Loiseau, Bakersfield Condors (12, 1-2-3) and Norfolk Admirals (54, 14-26-40). A big scorer in the Q, he had a good year in the ECHL and had a cup of coffee in the AHL. As is the case with several players on this list, he is not signed to an Oilers contract. Intriguing offense, may have a productive AHL career. Long climb.
  42. (31) D Ben Betker, Bakersfield Condors (14, 0-2-2) and Norfolk Admirals (49, 3-14-17). Massive defender with giant wingspan, Betker has the mobility issues we associate with this player-type. Might get a break if PC culls the LHD herd this summer. A solid first year.
  43. (39) L Evan Campbell, U Mass-Lowell (28, 5-7-12). He posted a strong sophomore season in 2014-15 but could not build on it last season. At 23, his senior season ahead, Campbell needs to kick out the jams in 2015-16. Distant bell.
  44. (34) L Braden Christoffer, Bakersfield Condors (33, 1-4-5) and Norfolk Admirals (24, 13-5-18). He had an even strength primary points-per-game in the AHL of 0.152, and that won’t get it done. There were 21-year old forwards who were in that range or worse, and I think it proves that a Double-A league is a good idea (at least your kids are getting at-bats). Difficult leap from junior to pro.
  45. (37) L Aidan Muir, Western Michigan (35, 2-6-8). He is 20, so there is time, but his sophomore season saw him deliver exactly half of his freshman offense. The 2014 draft was not good. He will need a strong season to re-establish himself as a prospect.
  46. (NR) LD Colton Waltz, Brandon Wheat Kings (34, 2-14-16) and Saskatoon Blades (31, 3-11-14). Signed to an AHL deal, the young man represents the basement of the Leftorium. There are eleven lefty prospects ahead of him, and that does not include young men like Darnell Nurse, Oscar Klefbom and Brandon Davidson.

I like the list. The Oilers had a good draft yesterday, and it is reflected in the rankings above. I understand some of you will not like the idea of a sixth-round selection being ahead of the third rounder, but this is first blush and miles to go.

I think the Oilers have tightened their list. It seems there is an insistence on:

  • Players who can skate
  • Players who can make plays with the puck
  • Players who can deliver at least some offense

There is not a pick in this draft that feels like a Hesketh or an Abney or even a Musil or a Moroz. There are observers of the Oilers who will tell you this was a poor draft—do not believe them. There are observers of the draft who will tell you the Oilers left value on the board—this is true.

Here is the lowdown: The Edmonton Oilers delivered a strong, effective and lucky draft. They took advantage of value picks in the first round and beyond. Their draft list did not match mine or yours, but if we all leave our ego and rage aside, this was a solid draft by an organization that has had real issues in this area. I am prepared for your slings, arrows and dragons.

There is supreme talent here, and there are useful pieces below. Some of these men will rip through NHL competition beginning October, others will take years to find their way. We wait.

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PDO

Lucic – RNH – Connolly
Pouliot – McDavid – Yak
Maroon – Drai – PA Parenteau
Lander – Letestu – Pitlick

Klefbom – Larsson
Sekera – Barrie
Davidson – Fayne

Talbot
Ramo

… that’s a playoff team isn’t it?

I have one of Nurse/Griff and Eberle going for Barrie and PoolParty spending a year in the AHL with Pak.

[…] Top 20 Time: Our pal Lowetide is at it again with his summer top 20 prospects list. Without giving too much away, LT goes in-depth past #20 and the 2016 draft is well represented. This is one of my favorite blog posts of the off-season because it updates and educates the reader on the bubbling under group in the Oiler organization. While there is no surprise in the top two, prospect number three is a bit of a shocker. […]

Jaxon

Woogie63:
Penticton Young Stars is set for September 16-19.The young talent at this tournament is going to be impressive.I don”t think the returning NCAA players can participate??I went last year with my son, we had a great time.

Jets
Patric Laine
Logan Stanley
Luke Green
Kyle Connor
Chase De Leo
Jansen Harkin
Eric Comrie

Canucks
Olli Joulevi
Brock Boeser
Adam Gaudette
Lukas Jasek
Guillemet Brisebois
Carl Neil
Tate Olson

Flames
Matthew Tkachuk
Tyler Parsons
Dillon Dube
Adam Fox
Andrew Mangiapane
Ramos Andersson
Riley Bruce
Mark Jankowski
Adam Ollas Mattsson

Oilers
Jesse Puljajärvi
Tyler Benson
Markus Niemelainen
Drake Caggiula
Egan Bear
Caleb Jones
John Marino
Filipino Berglund
Aapeli Rasanen

Grrr, really irks me to see two players I really hoped the Oilers would grab. Both offensive RHD.
Rasmus Andersson and Adam Fox.

Oh well, I am happy they got Bear and Berglund.

Jaxon

This guy didn’t get drafted. Can they invite him to camp and sign him?

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=246917

Does his 9 games in Allsvenskan exclude that chance? Is that considered a pro league? He didn’t play in the SHL.

With Tkachyov, it was his 2 games in the KHL that screwed it up, yes?

leadfarmer

I don’t get all the people digging on Arz GM. He got the second best Dman in the draft by taking a contract that only helps them to get to the cap floor and a second round pick. Chychrun was not going to be there in 4 picks.

Chachi

Магия 10: Pop Quiz. Who do you think makes a profitable trade when everyone knows the guy is going to make a trade. The guys who leaves something on the table and takes a clear win? or the guy with the ever decreasing circle of trade partners? There is such a thing as cutting off your nose to spite someone else’s face. Holland mocking him is reading in.

Pop Quiz? How would grinding Holland have been cutting off his nose? He was the only one willing to help Holland out. He let Holland off the hook without making him sweat. We’ll never know what Holland was willing to give up, but I am guessing it was much much more.

Frank the dog: If Hall had asked out and Pou keen to stay who would you move?

You have put this narrative out there so many times. Do you have some information to back this up or is it still based on your interpretation of the tea leaves?

rickithebear

Smelly glove:
League: equivalency:
CHL .3
NCAA .41
AHL .45
SM-ligga .55
SEL .69
KHL .7 and .76

AGE NHLE range
draft year
SEPT 16 50%
Sept 14 one year younger 75%

Draft +1
Sept 16 40%
Sept 14 1 year younger 50%

Draft +2
Sept 16 35%
Sept 14 1 year younger 40%

Draft +3
Sept 16 32%
Sept 14 one year younger .35

MPS
Age Equiv (.575)
50 game 17P 14 evp
SEL .69/.3 = 2.3 X (17/50) = .782 * .575 = .450 x 82 = 37P

JP
age Equiv (.662)
50 gm 28P
Sligo .55/.3 = 1.8333 X (28/50) = 1.027 X .662 = .680 = 57P

then we take EV TOI togged a final age Based NHLE.
68P

Frank the dog

LadiesloveSmid:
Stauff again mentions signing Lucic and moving out salary on LW. Is that Pouliot or Hall, damnit?! Better be a Pouliot for Vatanen kind of deal and not a Hall for Hamonic+Dal Colle kind of deal.

If EDM moves out Pouliot+Fayne, could they afford Vatanen+Lucic+ another Dman?

If Hall had asked out and Pou keen to stay who would you move?

N64

JDï™: schwas?

Ə What? Ə

JD_Wry

“Steve Smith”: but I feel like tildes are the new Book!e thing

When do we get to schwas?

N64

Chachi: Ken Holland owes Chayka nothing. The time to get what Arizona was “owed” was at the time of the trade. What’s Chayka going to do if Holland won’t do him a favour down the road, order a bunch of pizzas for delivery to Holland’s House? Maybe put a bag of flaming dog poop on Holland’s front step? I think Chayka is going to be a good GM and I think he’s going to learn that you get nowhere doing favours for other GMs. All the evidence a smart guy like Chayka needs that he lost that trade badly is the video footage of Ken Holland laughing with his buddies immediately after looking like he had just given the high school valedictorian a swirly and got away with it.

Pop Quiz. Who do you think makes a profitable trade when everyone knows the guy is going to make a trade. The guys who leaves something on the table and takes a clear win? or the guy with the ever decreasing circle of trade partners? There is such a thing as cutting off your nose to spite someone else’s face. Holland mocking him is reading in.

spoiler

LadiesloveSmid:
spoiler,

Aho’s numbers definitely weren’t comparable in his 15YO season, they were a bit worse but somewhat comparable in his draft season. Have to factor in being 5’10 vs 6’3 210 with 19 goals.

I’m wondering if he’ll play full time in Skelleftea next season or not, LT has definitely described him as a long term project.

Wasn’t going off comparable points, just prospects who are tracking from that league. Aho also had switched to the Finnish Men’s league by the next season. At 3 years older, Berglund hasn’t made that leap (although I expect he will next season).

Swedish Hockey has a website that makes it time consuming to parse the Juniors, otherwise I would look into it more closely.

As a long term project he shouldn’t get ranked so highly IMHO.

N64

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Ah. Yeah, that makes sense. I must have been asleep at the wheel.

Ha. Wasn’t going to bother typing those tilldes. Listing 2 D better than we’ve picked up in June was a big tell. Not sure how I forgot to list DeAngelo as a third name he can spell. 😉

Rebilled

‘I think Edmonton play next year, good season.’

Can’t believe we got this fella.

http://www.tsn.ca/puljujarvi-drops-one-spot-to-oilers-at-no-4-1.515104

LadiesloveSmid

Stauff again mentions signing Lucic and moving out salary on LW. Is that Pouliot or Hall, damnit?! Better be a Pouliot for Vatanen kind of deal and not a Hall for Hamonic+Dal Colle kind of deal.

If EDM moves out Pouliot+Fayne, could they afford Vatanen+Lucic+ another Dman?

LadiesloveSmid

spoiler,

Aho’s numbers definitely weren’t comparable in his 15YO season, they were a bit worse but somewhat comparable in his draft season. Have to factor in being 5’10 vs 6’3 210 with 19 goals.

I’m wondering if he’ll play full time in Skelleftea next season or not, LT has definitely described him as a long term project.

Younger Oil

Kind of random question, do we think the Blues will qualify Paajarvi?

Would love to sign him to have him replace Korpse.

I know he is half Finnish, does anyone know if he speaks it?

“Steve Smith”:
jfry,

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

I can’t remember where I got this impression, but I feel like tildes are the new Book!e thing, and that Магия 10 was using them to denote sarcasm.

Ah. Yeah, that makes sense. I must have been asleep at the wheel.

spoiler

LT, I have to agree with a few others on Berglund.

I think you have him rated too high.

You have his offense listed as:

RD Filip Berglund, Skelleftea AIK (43, 19-22-41) (SuperElite)

That might say SuperElite, but that’s not the SEL (now SHL), it’s the J20 league.

He went 5gp 0-0-0 in the SEL.

Now he had a very good year for that J20 league, but I’m trying to find comps in the J20 to see how that matches up. The only real name I found in my initial search was Sebastian Aho, but he played in this league at age 15! EDIT: (Actually draft-2, Aho has a July Bday)

You say your list punishes skating and that’s usually listed as his biggest weakness.

As an overager who can’t yet crack the SEL and has skating issues, I don’t know how he can be ranked ahead of Reinhart (or some others). But that said, I often can’t understand your rankings, so…

PunjabiOil

spoiler: And then the 2nd would be in Boston.

i see your point but that’s a sunk cost.

If you were a GM would you rather have a 1st and 3rd or RNH?

That’s ultimately what the oilers have to decide

Frank the dog

smellyglove:
Shoot, I forgot/screwed up — MPS played a year in Sweden after he was drafted. Sorry. Edmonton leaves the impression that they rush prospects :-).

Draft seasons:

Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson
2008-09Timra IKSEL5071017
Playoffss 7101

Jesse Puljujarvi
2015-16KarpatSM-liiga50131528
Playoffs: 10459

OK, so Puljujarvi brings about 60% more offense than MPS (similar NHL equivalencies for both leagues). I just get worried by large, non-physical playmaking wingers from Sweden and Finland. Hopefully the mitigating factor is that Jesse seems to have a shot whereas MPS does not.

Can any more of those in the know help to sooth my concerns? I’m not arguing this point, but just throwing some numbers out there.

Omg. Have you never seen Finland play? Passive they are not.

maxwell_mischief

that ARI / DET deal is a win-win. Phoenix saw an opportunity to grab a guy they thought was a top 10 talent, and Detroit was needed to offload that contract. Chayka giving up a 2nd seems like a lot, but they are walking out of there with Keller and Chychrun and feeling very good about themselves

Chachi

Lowetide: Oh that kid GM in Arizona is going to beat up old men for a long while, I would estimate.

I figure if he can survive the next couple of years he will indeed be making a lot of GMs look foolish.

jfry

“Steve Smith”,

DAMNIT!!!

LadiesloveSmid

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

I’m thinking Holland pulled one on the young GM, threatening to take Chychrun. ARI supposedly considered him at 7th

Material Elvis

jfry: you’re kidding, right?

i think it’s a little early in his career to be making sweeping statements about his ability as a GM. We also don’t know anything about their internal cap.

part of me thinks it’s a little funny that we’re all laughing at him for getting fleeced by holland, but no one is saying anything about Chicago giving up way too much (arguably) in a similar cap-freeing situation.

give the kid a chance. i’m not sold on him and he’s certainly precocious, but smarter people than me have been wowed by him and advanced him at this prodigious rate.

I think your sarcasm detector is broken.

spoiler

PunjabiOil: It’s only a 1st and 3rd.

RNH (a first overall pick with 5 years of NHL experience) and on the verge of turning north is worth more than a 1st and 3rd IMO.

And then the 2nd would be in Boston.

Chachi

godot10:
Trying to grind Ken Holland on a deal where you don’t have to grind him because it is not critical to what one is trying to accomplish is not seeing the forest or the big picture.

Ken Holland owing you a favour is a good thing.

Ken Holland owes Chayka nothing. The time to get what Arizona was “owed” was at the time of the trade. What’s Chayka going to do if Holland won’t do him a favour down the road, order a bunch of pizzas for delivery to Holland’s House? Maybe put a bag of flaming dog poop on Holland’s front step? I think Chayka is going to be a good GM and I think he’s going to learn that you get nowhere doing favours for other GMs. All the evidence a smart guy like Chayka needs that he lost that trade badly is the video footage of Ken Holland laughing with his buddies immediately after looking like he had just given the high school valedictorian a swirly and got away with it.

godot10

Arizona also got rid of a 30-year old player and saved $1.3 million dollars of real money in the Datsyuk trade.

fifthcartel

There’s talk the Leafs might not qualify Peter Holland. Any interest in him potentially? LH Center.

"Steve Smith"

jfry,

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

I can’t remember where I got this impression, but I feel like tildes are the new Book!e thing, and that Магия 10 was using them to denote sarcasm.

Магия 10: ~ That rube? Got wedgied by Holland. Besides being able to spell Goligoski and Chychrun what good is his book smarts. ~

Hmm. Usually we are in agreement, but here we differ. I loved his draft and acquiring DeAngelo for a song was a great move, in my opinion. I wish we had managed that. Who could use a right-handed, puck-moving D who put up 43 points in his rookie AHL season? Certainly not the Oilers.

People forget, Datsyuk’s contract is actually a positive asset for the cash-strapped Coyotes. If they can keep acquiring zero actual dollar cap hits they have less pressing need to overpay guys to go to Arizona. Yes, I think giving up the 53rd pick was an overpayment and he might have gotten hoodwinked by Holland on that one, but Datsyuk was a mutual benefit and he wanted to move up 4 slots to get Chychrun, who could end up being a steal in the end. I guess he really wanted to move up and Holland extracted a steep price. I think 16 + Datsyuk for 20 would have been fair. 53rd was unnecessary and the old master Holland got him there.

If he can keep their heads above water until they move to Tempe and then they are saved, he will have done very well.

As Oiler fans we should be the last ones to mock other teams’ GMs anyway. 🙂

godot10

Trying to grind Ken Holland on a deal where you don’t have to grind him because it is not critical to what one is trying to accomplish is not seeing the forest or the big picture.

Ken Holland owing you a favour is a good thing.

PunjabiOil

spoiler: Would we really want to go into the next draft without a pick till the 4th round? (as it stands right now)

It’s only a 1st and 3rd.

RNH (a first overall pick with 5 years of NHL experience) and on the verge of turning north is worth more than a 1st and 3rd IMO.

PunjabiOil

So if one reads the tea leaves correctly, Matt Dumba is the likely offer sheet target on July 1.Minnesota is up against the cap.Matching would be painful, and the compensation inadequate.

Minnesota has to drop their trade demands for Dumba, or they are facing a 5 x ~$5 million dollar offer sheet, or accept a 1st and a 3rd in compensation.

Chiarelli can hold out on his as for Dumba and Coyle for Nugent-Hopkins.

I think Chiarelli has picked the right defensemen to target for trade/offersheet with the highest probability of success.

On the flip side, Oilers might not want to pay Dumba 5M

That’s probably why there’s negotation and struggle to find a balance that is reasonable for both parties.

Having that said, Olers probably have the upper hand here.

smellyglove

Shoot, I forgot/screwed up — MPS played a year in Sweden after he was drafted. Sorry. Edmonton leaves the impression that they rush prospects :-).

Draft seasons:

Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson
2008-09 Timra IK SEL 50 7 10 17
Playoffss 7 1 0 1

Jesse Puljujarvi
2015-16 Karpat SM-liiga 50 13 15 28
Playoffs: 10 4 5 9

OK, so Puljujarvi brings about 60% more offense than MPS (similar NHL equivalencies for both leagues). I just get worried by large, non-physical playmaking wingers from Sweden and Finland. Hopefully the mitigating factor is that Jesse seems to have a shot whereas MPS does not.

Can any more of those in the know help to sooth my concerns? I’m not arguing this point, but just throwing some numbers out there.

godot10

spoiler: Would we really want to go into the next draft without a pick till the 4th round? (as it stands right now)

I don’t have a problem with that if I get Dumba for a 1st and a 3rd (and without having to give up Nugent-Hopkins).

If one can get a 2nd pairing RD without giving up a player, and for only 2 future draft picks., only one a first rounder, that is a cheap price.

jfry

Магия 10: ~ That rube? Got wedgied by Holland. Besides being able to spell Goligoski and Chychrun what good is his book smarts. ~

you’re kidding, right?

i think it’s a little early in his career to be making sweeping statements about his ability as a GM. We also don’t know anything about their internal cap.

part of me thinks it’s a little funny that we’re all laughing at him for getting fleeced by holland, but no one is saying anything about Chicago giving up way too much (arguably) in a similar cap-freeing situation.

give the kid a chance. i’m not sold on him and he’s certainly precocious, but smarter people than me have been wowed by him and advanced him at this prodigious rate.

Water Fire

There are reasons some players don’t make the jump to NHL hockey well. Pajaarvi was never expected to bring much offense because he isn’t aggressive and has no shot.

Lander was also thought to have little chance at good NHL offense and was drafted for ‘character’ which he has. He is a solid all round player, but he’s on the small side, not quick which IMO is kiss of death for smaller players, and he has no shot.

Puljujarvi is none of these things. He may bust but he has everything he needs to excel in the NHL and applies himself to the full game, unlike the other RW that is trying to bust.

spoiler

godot10: Minnesota has to drop their trade demands for Dumba, or they are facing a 5 x ~$5 million dollar offer sheet, or accept a 1st and a 3rd in compensation.

Would we really want to go into the next draft without a pick till the 4th round? (as it stands right now)

Woogie63

godot10:
So if one reads the tea leaves correctly, Matt Dumba is the likely offer sheet target on July 1.Minnesota is up against the cap.Matching would be painful, and the compensation inadequate.

Minnesota has to drop their trade demands for Dumba, or they are facing a 5 x ~$5 million dollar offer sheet, or accept a 1st and a 3rd in compensation.

Chiarelli can hold out on his as for Dumba and Coyle for Nugent-Hopkins.

I think Chiarelli has picked the right defensemen to target for trade/offersheet with the highest probability of success.

Great thought… I would likely start with Eberle as our offer, until seconds before July 1 where I might switch to RNH (for a additional sweetener of course)

Woogie63:
Penticton Young Stars is set for September 16-19.The young talent at this tournament is going to be impressive.

Filipino Berglund

!! That is impressive indeed!

spoiler

The pick that probably has me excited the most is Benson.

It’s a real swing for the fences that could either be over the bleachers or a high fly to shallow center.

Some may disagree on the strategy of taking on such risk with the early 2nd rounder, but there’s an opportunity for a lot of reward there.

This kid was almost granted exemption status to play Junior a year early. While that’s no guarantee of anything, those kids who can play at that level that young rarely bomb out of the NHL and usually end up being stars.

The poor lad has been hurt so much we could probably say his development is now behind a year of where it would normally be. While that raises concerns, if he can re-establish his trajectory, he really is a sky is the limit prospect.

To accomplish what he did on a PPG basis with the injury he had is nothing short of amazing. And teams value the dedication and effort and pain tolerance he showed by trying to play through the injury.

When you also consider that he adds an element of, say, feistiness that we lack at forward, I am looking towards his draft+1 season with a lot of interest. I’d propose though that he needs to get into the top 20 of WHL scoring and stay healthy to get that trajectory back.

_____________

I am also licking my chops at the Pujo acquisition like a rabid St. Bernard, but the pack has been barking his name long and loud all year.

godot10

So if one reads the tea leaves correctly, Matt Dumba is the likely offer sheet target on July 1. Minnesota is up against the cap. Matching would be painful, and the compensation inadequate.

Minnesota has to drop their trade demands for Dumba, or they are facing a 5 x ~$5 million dollar offer sheet, or accept a 1st and a 3rd in compensation.

Chiarelli can hold out on his as for Dumba and Coyle for Nugent-Hopkins.

I think Chiarelli has picked the right defensemen to target for trade/offersheet with the highest probability of success.

N64

jfry: It also gets me kind of interested in what the new GM in PHX is doing — he’s been very open about the fact that he’s leaning heavily on sports psychology

~ That rube? Got wedgied by Holland. Besides being able to spell Goligoski and Chychrun what good is his book smarts. ~

spoiler

godot10: You are making a false comparison.You are comparing Paajarvi’s draft+1 (a 19-year old) season with Puljujarvi’s draft+0 season (a 18-year old).

This is correct.

MPS went 50, 7-10-17 and 9th on team in his draft year.

Richard S.S.

There were 8 Goalies drafted after Edmonton took theirs and 9 drafted before. They must really like their guy!!!???

fifthcartel

Puljujarvi might still be recovering from knee surgery by then.