WILD HORSES

by Lowetide

This morning, I think we should establish reasonable expectations for Jesse Puljujarvi. He is 18 (birthday May 7) and coming off brilliant tournaments against kids his own age, plus a season as a regular in the Finnish pro league (Sm-Liiga). I think, going in, that the Oilers should bring him to camp as a probable NHL option, but with the Sm-Liiga or AHL as possibilities—even for 20 games. How does JP compare to other Finnish youngsters after their 17-year old seasons? Below are points-per-game totals in the Sm-Liiga at 17, plus totals in the year following:

  • Mikael Granlund: 17 (.930)     18 (.923 Sm-Liiga)
  • Aleksander Barkov: 17 (.906) 18 (.444 NHL)
  • Joel Armia: 17 (.604)               18 (.704 Sm-Liiga)
  • Jesse Puljujarvi: 17 (.560)
  • Teuvo Teravainen: 17 (.450)   18 (.705 Sm-Liiga)

I understand this is over many years and certainly without TOI we are miles from really knowing. That said the Sm-Liiga is tellings us Puljujarvu is not Barkov offensively, and Barkov had 24 points in 54 games as a rookie. Counting on Puljujarvi as a significant offensive player next season is risky, in my opinion. He may develop that way, but counting on him in a season Peter Chiarelli needs to go well? He might be productive on a third line that sees the soft parade—say, with Leon and Maroon—but a feature role on the McDavid line feels extremely early from here.

WHO RUNS WITH MCDAVID-LUCIC?

Milan Lucic differs in many ways from Taylor Hall, and one of those differences is shots on goal. Lucic shot 124 times in 81 games (1.53 per game) and at even strength 5.09 shots per 60. His playing style helps in the offensive zone, but he is not the dominant shooter on his line. The fabulous blog The Energy Line (Corey Sznajder) tracked some playoff games by the Kings and produced a wonderful graph to show Lucic as primarily a passer:

lucic the passer

  • Quoting the blog: The different types of players are a little easier to spot here with Versteeg, Kopitar & Lucic opting to pass more than shoot while Toffoli, Brown, Gaborik, Shore, King  and Carter are at the other end of the spectrum. The other thing that sticks out is that the Kings forwards seemed to have more of a shoot-first mentality compared to Sharks, whose top forwards seemed to pass more often. I’m not sure what the reasoning behind that is or if it’s significant, but it’s an odd quirk here. The separation between the Kings three main passers and the rest of the forwards is a bit alarming, though. Source

I think that points us to the need for a shooter on RW. Who are the best shooters for Edmonton? Well, let’s look at two categories: shots per 60 and attempted shots per game (via hockey-reference):

Shots per game

  1. Jesse Puljujarvi 3.06 (49 in 16—Sm-Liiga)*
  2. Eberle 2.51 (173 in 69)
  3. Maroon 2.44 (39 in 16)
  4. Yakupov 2.12 (127 in 60)
  5. Draisaitl 1.85 (133 in 72)
  6. Pakarinen 1.21 (76 in 63)
  7. Kassian 1.17 (42 in 36)

Attempted shots per game

  1. Eberle 4.29 (296 in 69)
  2. Yakupov 3.67 (220 in 60)
  3. Maroon 3.56 (57 in 16)
  4. Draisaitl 2.97 (214 in 72)
  5. Pakarinen 2.22 (140 in 63)
  6. Kassian 2.14 (77 in 36)

*Puljujarvi numbers based on October 22, 2015 article by Mike Morreale, detailing 49 shots in 16 games—14:38 per night. Source

Puljujarvi is so young, I would hope the Oilers put him in a protected role, as mentioned above. Based on anecdotal evidence—Revolved also supplied us with info that (among other things) tells us JP delivered 6.93 equal-strength shots per 60—he could be a marksman for a scoring line. The question is when? I hope the Oilers don’t push him. Based on the numbers above, I think Nail Yakupov may have a seam here, even a little one, to get a push this fall.

oesterle ferguson 14-15

Jordan Oesterle photo by Rob Ferguson

HOW MANY ROOKIES

I imagine the Oilers will see several rookies play a substantial amount this year.

  • R Jesse Puljujarvi. I think there is a good chance he plays the entire season, and he could be in contention for the ROY. Everything would have to break right for him.
  • LD Jordan Oesterle. He is mobile and can play RH side. I fully understand the value of L-R, but with the Leftorium as a major part of the blue, lefties are going to dominate the roster. Oesterle is an emerging player.
  • L Drake Caggiula. He starts in Bakersfield but gets a chance after Christmas is my guess. Injuries dictate opportunities, but with his offense, they are going to want to have a look at him in the NHL.
  • G Laurent Brossoit. He played 300 minutes a year ago, too small a sample size to judge anything. Minor league numbers have been getting better, suspect he will play enough to qualify this as his rookie season.
  • C Jujhar Khaira. He will probably be an early callup, although the Nuge rumors have him in play as 4C if it comes to that (McDavid, Leon, Letestu, Lander-Khaira), so making the team as an extra forward is possible. The offense likely limits his role, but he appears to be close to NHL-ready.
  • R Anton Slepyshev. He has NHL size and speed, and more offense was expected from him. No matter, year one NA and sometimes that has an impact. He probably needs to light it up in Bakersfield during the fall to get a look.
  • LD David Musil. He will be an option for 7D and his time is now. I can see the Oilers running him out there for 45 games this season with an eye to the expansion draft.
  • R Tyler Pitlick. Does he still qualify as a rookie? I don’t think he does, but will include him here. Pitlick has a chance to play in the NHL this season, but needs to stay healthy.
  • Bogdan Yakimov. Nuge’s possible exit brings all kinds of names into play, and if the team struggles at C with RNH gone (they will) we could see all manner of options attempted. Don’t believe me? Hey, this team recalled Sebastien Bisaillon—don’t tell me calling up Yakimov is impossible!

There are reasons to believe there is a deal here, with Nuge and Barrie the prominent names. Could this deal get bigger? We wait, but today might get interesting.

HOCKEY RELATIVITY

A great new resource for you to bookmark: Hockey Relativity. Scoring rates and estimated scoring rates allow us a very interesting view into these young prospects. Among the interesting items: Bear (1.32) and Jones (1.28) are basically equal at even-strength offense. WheatnOil wrote about this, and a reflection of that 2015 draft’s quality. Also, Tyler Benson is No. 1 among 17 year old WHL forwards in points per 60—we talked about this too, but nice to get a confirm from another source. The IPP category is revealing as well. Also discussed, and now confirmed, Markus Niemelainen is a more productive player offensively than Logan Stanley. Of course, this doesn’t address the defensive side of these prospects but it is interesting.

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HiddenDarts

Great coverage throughout this week of madness, LT. This was definitely one for the history books. It’s sad we’ll never see Hall in playoff mode with the Oil, but something had to give, obviously.

The season to come should be pretty interesting. Great arguments from everybody in terms of for and against the trade, but one that seems to ring true for me over and over again is the “10 year argument” (10 years of losing!). Can we blame Hall for the bad times? Never! But can we keep barely changing the lineup and hoping for the best? A definite no. It’s just not mentally healthy for anyone.

Would we be crying “insane overpay” if we traded Eberle instead of Hall for Larsson? No. But I think everyone knew this wasn’t going to end well for the Austins.

I’m just glad, frankly, that it wasn’t Nuge. The 10 year argument (no playoffs!) also reminds me of the absolute zero center depth the team has had since 2006.

Hall is (somewhat) palatable. Add Nuge to the names headed out and I may have to cut open some pillows and dust off the ol’ tar bucket.

Raider Jesse

I’d really like to see JP on the 3rd line.

Lucic – McDavid – Yakupov
Pouliot – Nuge – Eberle
Maroon – Drai – JP
Flostam – Jetsam – Chum

Ca$h-McMoney!

Benson is #1 in pts60 among 17yo WHL forwards despite playing through a very serious injury.

I think he’s going to be a player.

JimmyV1965

Send JP to rhe minors and forget about him. If he shoots the lights out after 40 or 60, give him a taste. As a whacky experiment, just send him to the minors, even if he looks good in training camp.

Clay

So first question – Barrie must be offer sheet eligible, no? If so, I’d rather see them give up picks than Nuge, even if it’s the first three picks next year.

Second question – isn’t the situation described above the perfect storm for Yak?

“Hey Nail, we’re giving you one more shot. We’ll put you on a line with two passers – one is the best playmaker this century, the other will clear a swath big enough to drive a bus down. All we need from you is to get open and pound the puck at the net, mkay?”

SVR

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/laurent-brossoit

Iwas looking at Oilers roster vs salary cap. Does anyone know the effect of Laurent Brossoit if he is sent down? He has a one way contract. Is Does his salary count against the cap if he plays for the condors?

12 percent body fat

as it stand now i go three balanced line

lucic – mcdavid – yak (yaks deficiencies are covered and his value should be pumped)
poo – nuge – puljijarvi (jesse gets some nice sheltering)
marron – drai – eberle (these three don need to be worried about generating offence themselves)

Mr DeBakey

Puljujarvi is so young, I would hope the Oilers put him in a protected role, as mentioned above.

I met an attractive young lady last night, I would hope she received and registered my cell number, which I was transmitting to her telepathically.

But I’m not counting on it.

G Laurent Brossoit. He played 300 minutes a year ago, too small a sample size to judge anything. Minor league numbers have been getting better, suspect he will play enough to qualify this as his rookie season.

Lost in the great trade and Oilers embiggening discussions is the Goaler situation. From where I’m sitting, if Talbot goes down with injury, you might well start your Entry Draft posts.

Mr DeBakey

36 percent body fat: puljijarvi (jesse gets some nice sheltering)

Which line gets the hard match-ups?

After a few days of consideration
I see where the new-look Oilers aren’t going to match too well in many situations.

Ducey

JimmyV1965:
Send JP to rhe minors and forget about him. If he shoots the lights out after 40 or 60, give him a taste. As a whacky experiment, just send him to the minors, even if he looks good in training camp.

Agreed. I think he could be Kassian insurance. We are miles from knowing if the Oilers will get anything useful from Kassian. Give him 40 games, and if he flops, replace him with the kid.

kinger_OIL

– Great post LT! Thanks for the pool-party stuff. We can’t be an “advanced stats” group, and then dismiss his NHLE just becaue. Give Sleppy the call-up first

– Part of me thinks they didn’t sign Demers because other trade irons in the fire: too optimistic?

Surly

Clay:
So first question – Barrie must be offer sheet eligible, no?If so, I’d rather see them give up picks than Nuge, even if it’s the first three picks next year.

I believe we would have to reclaim our own 2nd round pick from BOS for Chiarelli (glad they got rid of that rule but alas it was 9 months too late for us) in order to either process or threaten a 1s/2nd/3rd comp offer sheet.

russ99

Let the kid get used to the North American game instead of throwing him into the fire.

its hard to take this organization seriously until we stop the practice of rushing picks to the bigs.

Also, the third line should be a possession line not a soft minutes line..

Everyone is going to be keying their top units on McDavid, so a possession line doesn’t give the opposition an easy out, keeps pressure on the defense for all three lines,

As of now, barring additions I’d go with Maroon – Hendricks and Kassian.

murphy

Nuge won’t be going for barrie it will be eberle or a LHD plus futures. I would prefer LHD plus futures but im guessing ebs is the only solution. Tough spot petes got himself into here when he could have held onto ebs and hall with a subban trade (with drai, nurse yak and futures going out).

Would everyone here do sekera and next years 1st round pick lottery protected for barrie?

Ducey

SVR:
https://www.capfriendly.com/players/laurent-brossoit

Iwas looking at Oilers roster vs salary cap.Does anyone know the effect of Laurent Brossoit if he is sent down? He has a one way contract. Is Does his salary count against the cap if he plays for the condors?

Nope. Anyone’s contact less than $950,000 doesn’t count vs the cap.

Generational Poster

David Savard seems like such a good option if we can get him for picks / prospects.

Or, any rumours on the price for Shattenkirk? Does Yak & 1st for Shat (& 2nd?) get you in range? If 16/17 season goes in the shitter you flush the shat at the deadline for a late 1st and a prospect. If things are going well he is our own rental and the return after the season is cap space…or maybe he decides along the way that he would sign an extension here.

Klefbom / Larsson
Sekera / Fayne
Davidson / Savard or Shattenkirk

Yes please!

blainer

IMO the moves Chia made are top players in and players out.

In – Lucic Larsson Puly

Out- Hall Jultz Korpse

Now for me the subtraction of Jultz who will be lucky to even get a tryout in the Fall is as big as any of the additions.

The skills Lucic brings are different than Hall’s. Hall can score more but Looch will intimidate players. If you are going in the corner against Hall or Lucic who are you more worried will hurt you..

Faceoffs – Checkout how Krejci’s and Bergerons faceoff wins decreased after the departure of Looch. CMD will start winning more faceoff’s in both ends with Looch retrieving the puck on a 50/50 draw. The more I look at it I am much happier with Looch in and Taylor out.. and I am a huge fan of Hall’s.

It eases the pain from the trade when I now look at the D pairings. Chia may end up looking real good on this trade.

This team will be intimidating to play now for sure especially with another 6’4 200 lb player in Puly coming in at some point.

Agree LT that IF Puly makes the team they play him in soft minutes with Drai and Maroon.

Can actually see Yak returning now with Looch and CMD. Not much to worry about Yak playing on that line defensively and he will score with CMD.. Can’t believe I just said that..lol..

If Barrie is coming here it will be a three way with the peg. Nurse to Peg .. Trouba to the Av’s.. and Barrie to the Oil. I hope that doesn’t happen as Nurse is one mean bastard and does not have to protected.

Ducey

Surly: I believe we would have to reclaim our own 2nd round pick from BOS for Chiarelli (glad they got rid of that rule but alas it was 9 months too late for us)in order to either process or threaten a 1s/2nd/3rd comp offer sheet.

Apparently the NHLPA the Bettmans agreed that teams like the Oilers could do an offer sheet and defer the 2nd to the next year. So they could do an offer sheet. But it won’t work?

Rondo
kinger_OIL

– Was at my brother-in-laws place last night. He reminded me of that famous win Boston vs Leafs, game 7 a few years ago. Down 4-1 in 3rd wish I could find the clip.

– Lucic, on the bench dropping f-bombs, telling the team they are going to win. He puts the team on his back and they won.

I forgot about that, I’m sure Chia didn’t:

http://mapleleafs.nhl.com/gamecenter/en/recap?id=2012030147

Ducey

Generational Poster:
David Savard seems like such a good option if we can get him for picks / prospects.

Or, any rumours on the price for Shattenkirk?

The rumour was that EDM was in on him but he would not sign an extension.

If the Oilers are in playoff contention they need to keep him and get jack for him. If they are out of it and can trade him they will just get picks for him. The last few deadlines the returns have been underwhelming for rentals.

Seems well down the list of options for team building.

I am keen on grabbing Pysyk or Petrovic. I am going to keep repeating myself until LT listens to me and makes it happen.

LMHF#1

Would people be all that disappointed with:

Hopkins, Nurse and Musil for Duchene and Barrie?

Or something like that?

I think you do that deal.

SumOil

It bothers me that PC has not made any moves to back his gamble.
There have boon no depth forward signings no more RHDs to shore up the defense.

I get it PC wanted a stud on the defense line and he has bet his house. I dont understand why he his sitting pat now. Praying the Barrie deal falls through is not the right way forward

SumOil

We should have signed Parenteau or Stempniak and Yannic Weber/ Wisniewiski to give us balance and depth. This team can battle the best but we need the right 7s and 8s as LT says.

Ben

Feeling like it’s Nuge+Klef for Barrie+Landeskog.

Hope I’m wrong. PC could really use a clear win to balance out his summer.

Gayfish

LMHF#1:
Would people be all that disappointed with:

Hopkins, Nurse and Musil for Duchene and Barrie?

Or something like that?

I think you do that deal.

I don’t like getting duchene, since it sort of defeats the point of having Nuge on the roster. I imagine Nurse for Barrie is enough to get a deal done.

I was never a Nurse fan, but he kept beating my expectations until last year, so I don’t want to bet against him.

Andy Dufresne

There is a lot of summer left. I highly doubt Yak will be here in September.

Also, with Hall gone Oilers are going to have to rely heavily on two lines for scoring and with all the changes will need to go with whatever established chemistry still exists on the team.

Combine this with the need to shelter JP (after mid season callup). Pak/JP will take the minutes that TMac had been giving Korpse.

Lucic – McDavid – Eberle
Pouliot – Nuge – Draisaitl
Maroon – Letestu – Pak/JP
Hendricks – Lander/Khaira – Kassian

I’m preparing to see a lot of dump and grind and letting the dancers dance. (Conner Nuge and Ebbs)

36 percent body fat:
as it stand now i go three balanced line

lucic – mcdavid – yak (yaks deficiencies are covered and his value should be pumped)
poo – nuge – puljijarvi (jesse gets some nice sheltering)
marron – drai – eberle (these three don need to be worried about generating offence themselves)

SumOil

Nurse is not going anywhere.

He could have been traded for Dougie Hamilton but he wasnt
He could have been traded for Subban but Oilers walked away from that too.
Nurse is the name where deals fall apart where Oilers are concerned

SkatinginSand

SumOil,

You do realize that it isJuly 3 and the regular season doesn’t begin until October?

Todd Macallan

Off topic: Great story by Stephen Brunt on Looch that ran during the year. Gives us some insight into the newest Oiler not just as a player but as a person:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZENYui2g00

More on topic: I think Cody Ceci may be a good target for RHD that can move the puck. His point totals are not on par with Barrie obviously, but he really impressed me offensively in an admittedly small sample size @ the WCs this year. RFA with no contract yet, feel like he could be a great bet that MAY not cost us another Austin.

I don’t often propose deals on here, but maybe something around our 2017 1st, Yak, Griff, Fayne (50% retention) for Ceci + Lazar (cheap RH bottom 6 winger in need of scenery change and to fill our Oil Kings quota after shipping out Griff).

SumOil

Stelio Kontos: I don’t like getting duchene, since it sort of defeats the point of having Nuge on the roster. I imagine Nurse for Barrie is enough to get a deal done.

I was never a Nurse fan, but he kept beating my expectations until last year, so I don’t want to bet against him.

In the proposed trade Duchene will replace Hopkins. At this time Duchene is the superior player

SumOil

SkatinginSand:
SumOil,

You do realize that it isJuly 3 and the regular season doesn’t begin until October?

Yet there is no verbal anywhere about them. Tell me who are the FAs left we can confidently sign?

Why are you confident that the management will make the right calls while they stood pat while others grabbed those players.

Mr DeBakey

Stelio Kontos: I imagine Nurse for Barrie is enough to get a deal done.

And the Centers for the Oilers will be….?

I don’t see the net gain there.

Net gain.

Andy Dufresne

LMHF#1,

If its not a simple one for one Nuge for Barrie then I expect Nurse is in play. I know that the mainstream thinking is that Nurse is a Chiarelli type and the rest of the braintrust loves him but i think Chia is REALLY in win now mode and Nuge Nurse + for Duchene Barrie moves the needle forward today.

(the + might be Brandon Davidson or the 2017 1st)

SumOil

Mr DeBakey,

He said Nurse for Barrie not Nuge 😛

Snowman

SumOil:
Nurse is not going anywhere.

He could have been traded for Dougie Hamilton but he wasnt
He could have been traded for Subban but Oilers walked away from that too.
Nurse is the name where deals fall apart where Oilers are concerned

I tend to agree with you on this but not necessarily in your examples. I’m betting the Subban trade was kiboshed by the ask of Drai. I think Drai is the untouchable one, although Nurse is definitely high on that last. The Dougie Hamilton deal I’m betting Chiarelli worked out the packages that other people could offer and knew he could/had offered more without including Nurse.

If Chia Pete turns Nurse and Nuge+ into Barrie and Duchene I will forgive all the things I said about Chiarelli on Wednesday.

Honestly if Chia doesn’t even get Barrie…If traded Nuge+ for Duchene I’d be thrilled. Duchene can drive a line.

healthyscratch

I have to believe they wouldn’t have bought out KorpikoskI if they didn’t intend to use that cap space on a coming trade.

Ca$h-McMoney!

SumOil:
Nurse is not going anywhere.

He could have been traded for Dougie Hamilton but he wasnt
He could have been traded for Subban but Oilers walked away from that too.
Nurse is the name where deals fall apart where Oilers are concerned

That’s not quite accurate. It was Nurse, Drai, JP, and next years 1st for Subban.

jm363561

Andy Dufresne:
There is a lot of summer left. I highly doubt Yak will be here in September.

Also, with Hall gone Oilers are going to have to rely heavily on two lines for scoring and with all the changes will need to go with whatever established chemistry still exists left on the team.

Combine this with the need to shelter JP (after mid season callup). Pak/JP will take the minutes that TMac had been giving Korpse.

Lucic – McDavid – Eberle
Pouliot – Nuge – Draisaitl
Maroon – Letestu – Pak/JP
Hendricks – Lander/Khaira – Kassian

I believe Chia is far from done. He has Yak, $5m cap space, platoons of LHD and next year’s first, plus time. I would expect another C and RW, plus a 3RHD that can QB the power play as and when they shake loose. I would agree with your top six and I feel we can look forward to a great roster next season.

blainer

Lowetide: So far, I agree.

I think so too. Can see them maybe trying Griff and the 2017 first for Trouba and then sending Trouba to the Av’s for Barrie.

That is a trade I would be happy with even with the overpay for Griff.

JOFA

Duchene for 3 years or Nuge for 5? I take Nuge.

fifthcartel

The way this organization overvalues Darnell Nurse you’d think he was Aaron Ekblad or Seth Jones. Sadly I think there’s a very good chance he never comes close to either of those players.

It won’t surprise me in the least bit when he’s on the second pairing opening night with Sekera.

Pescador

Ducey,

I’m with you Duece,
Re: Pysyk or Petrovic. Who would you propose sending to Fla to make the deal?
Rienhart obviously, 2017 3rd enough? Too much?

Dustylegnd

The single greatest weakness in Colorado is their defence, please explain why Sakic would trade his best offensive defence man who also is also a right shot for an under sized centre with health problems that has never scored 60 points????

Did we not already establish the extreme value of right shot D men especially one who puts up MAD PPP????

There is no way Sakic does this deal without getting very very good D man back…..Say goodbye to Klefbom because if I am Sakic, there is no way I believe Darnell Nurse is anything more than a very good 4th D man or an ok 3 D man with very limited offence.

The league is in the process of devaluing Defensive Defensemen…..especially ones that struggle with timely decision making and passing.

jm363561

I had hoped by now to see a comparative of team results with and without Chance (and If I missed it I apologise). My one and only contribution to the site’s statistics is below:

Hall played all 82 games in 2015-16. No good for this exercise.

Oilers 2014-15 results:
– With Hall – 41 points in 53 games (16-28-9) = 0.77 points per game
– Entire season – 62 points (sob) in 82 games (24-44-14) = 0.76 points per game

Just sayin.

P.S.
Nuge / Ebs played 76 and 81 games respectively, so their ppg are in line with the entire season.

Anton Lander – 36 points in 38 games (15-17-6) = 0.98 points per game! I cannot understand how with Nelson as coach, and with Team Sweden, Lander looked a player, but with TMcL his performance collapsed, along with our PP.