ALMOST BLUE

by Lowetide

I used to smile when Chris Pronger rolled onto the ice, this was 2005-06. Pronger—especially when he was out with a good center like Peca or Horcoff—was money. Honestly, I well remember the calm—perhaps as a lifeline to sanity—and the wonderful feeling it gave me. This was in the days of balance and clarity, before Oilers management wished it all into the cornfield. Those days are gone.

There is no Chris Pronger coming to Edmonton this summer, those calm winter evenings are a distant bell. The Edmonton Oilers, owners of a brilliant group of forwards who surely would have (eventually) represented championship quality, are down one King with a few Jacks sitting in limbo.

Note: At this point, I am going to begin discussion of something positive. If this causes you to fly in a rage over the Taylor Hall deal, I will refer you here and here.

larsson capture2

What might be coming is the beginning of something resembling a top pairing. Now, this is early days—and Oscar Klefbom has to stay healthy—but the first blush of something worthwhile is upon us—and the total cost is a little more than $8 million.

  • Jason Gregor re: Klefbom (June 23): Oscar Klefbom was in Edmonton this week and he skated four days with the trainers and medical staff. The first day his foot didn’t feel great, but the next few days he felt fine and was very positive about how he felt. I asked (Peter) Chiarelli about Klefbom’s progress and he confirmed he had been skating and everything looks great. The past week was as much a mental exercise as physical. He needed to get on the ice and feel good and he did. A healthy Klefbom is a must if the Oilers hope to improve this season. Source

A healthy Klefbom is a very good thing. If the Oilers can land Tyson Barrie, and Klefbom can stay off the IR, Edmonton should have the best top 6D since 2006:

  • Klefbom—Larsson
  • Sekera—Fayne
  • Davidson—Barrie

That is how I would run them, you may want to place Barrie with Sekera and that is fine by me. Is that a playoff defense? Probably depends on the health of these six, as depth is going to lack experience and in some cases have other issues. Peter Chiarelli is apparently okay with standing pat.

  • Chiarelli to Bob Stauffer: “Notwithstanding the cries of protest for a power play specialist, I’d be very satisfied with where we sit today. We’re getting Oscar Klefbom back. He’s a helluva defenceman. It’s going to take him some time to get him up and running. He missed a lot of games last year. We’ve brought in Adam Larsson, a high pedigree player, although not as well known to this community as in other hockey circles. He’s a right shot, that’s important in the righty/lefty scheme of things. He can play an offensive role. No, he’s not an offensive specialist. He can play on a power play. No, he’s not a power play specialist. So all things being equal, if we were to start today with our ‘D’ I’d be quite happy. I’d be very happy. Yes, I’d like to try to get someone that can compliment a power play and push the puck up to the forwards. That’s no secret. We will continue to look at. There’s still a couple that are out there. They are hard to find.Source

I think that means one of two things:

  • The Oilers don’t want to trade the Nuge (I agree)
  • Peter Chiarelli is bluffing

It probably comes down to Colorado deciding on what to do with Tyson Barrie. If the Avalanche move him, suspect PC will be in on it all the way.

50-MAN LIST (46)

Capture

Added in the last week:

  • RD Adam Larsson. A big part of the future, best righty D in some time.
  • L Milan Lucic. Big power winger with soft hands—and results.
  • G Jonas Gustavsson. A mild competitor to Laurent Brossoit for backup role.
  • LD Mark Fraser. Some toughness for Bakersfield.
  • R Taylor Beck. Big winger, more in a minute.
  • RD Ethan Bear. A 5th round pick signed in the summer after his draft—very good arrow.

The free-agent group after Lucic is a curious bunch, honestly would not have chosen one of them as an option. Gustavsson seems to have been a fallback (Montoya?) but Edmonton could have acquired a more substantial option if they felt it was a priority. You can’t argue, really, that Chiarelli thought Brossoit was more than a mile or two from NHL-ready based on this solution. Fraser and Beck are Bakersfield options from where I stand, would love to be proven wrong.

PROJECTED 2016-17 EDMONTON OILERS

projected oilers july 4

I have projected Jesse Puljujarvi getting Patrik Laine’s contract, so it is probably a little high. I have also included all bonuses, as they must be accounted for opening night—and the NHL team has to assume all players reach all bonuses. This is my understanding of the facts, speak now if you have evidence to the contrary.

  • I had a terrible time finding the second offensive RW. We know Eberle is the top player on that side, and I think he spends a lot of time on McDavid’s line. That said, there is no clear 2RW in this group, so I chose Yakupov and put him with 97 (that duo had success a year ago). I also think there is a very good chance Benoit Pouliot plays a lot with McDavid this coming season.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi is clearly the future option at that spot, but for me easing him into the NHL is the best plan—and that could include AHL time. I will say the forward group makes way more sense with JP on the 2line.
  • It looks like someone on RW is going to be odd man out. The obvious choice for sitting is Iiro Pakarinen, but I don’t see that happening. Zack Kassian and Nail Yakupov may see the pressbox this season—although Nail could do himself a helluva favor by ripping it up in training camp (and beyond).
  • I like the top 4D as shown above, but am in the minority (and that is putting things mildly). PC has stated he would be fine entering the season with this group, meaning the PP point job may go to a forward.
  • The third pairing remains up in the air, Davidson is playing the offside with Nurse. I do think that ends up being the setup, with possibly Eric Gryba added as 7D. Don’t fret about Jordan Oesterle, No. 8 D end up playing a helluva lot in the NHL most seasons.

https://twitter.com/generalfanager/status/749960533483331585

I didn’t comment on this because the signing was a bit of a mystery to me. Looking at the signing numbers suggests (to me) that Peter Chiarelli is looking for players who could play in the NHL if needed, and he is offering some substantial sweeteners in cobbling the group together. He is a big winger, 122 shots in 50 AHL games (I am increasingly obsessed with shooters on RH side—Oilers need them for these centers and big LWs). He could play in the NHL this coming season, I do not think it likely, and would describe it as extremely unlikely he plays as many as 10 games.

With strong analysis on the decline (at least the public portion) it is heartening to see this kind of work. I think sometimes we (I) take Darcy for granted—we know him, we joke with him—but this is outstanding work. All evidence is presented, the limitations acknowledged and (increasingly) the math is aided by real writing ability. I imagine he is a helluva wood salesman, but this might be his calling and we benefit from his excellent work. Thanks, Woodguy!

Martin Lunden has appeared on these pages many times, and today he appears again via a powerful mini-article he tweeted out on Anton Lander. If you think you suffered through his season, stand back because it was murder for the Swede. Highly recommend you drop by Martin’s twitter (it is too long to quote here) and read it. Lander is an easy guy to cheer for, hope he has a major rebound season.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We are back, for the whole week! TSN1260, 10 this morning. Scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. What a week! Hall trade! Lucic signing! PK to Nashville! Lots to talk about this morning.
  • Antony Bent. Our soccer expert will guide us through the Euro action this past week, and look ahead to the semi’s. We will also discuss transfer window and Eddies fall schedule.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. Canada’s NHL teams cashed at the draft and then some stepped onto the sidelines while other teams blasted through rock in search of change. We will do a tour and see if things are better.
  • Sunil Agnihotri, Copper & Blue and The SuperFan. Sunil will be the first of the Lowdown’s Oilogosphere experts to discuss the Hall trade, the Larsson acquisition and the Lucic signing. What does he think? Are the Oilers better?

I can be reached at 10-1260 via text and @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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russ99

I don’t get why Fayne remains so high in the rotation.

For a stay-at-home guy he’s not especially good at chance prevention. He’s been poor in McLellan’s systems too.

If anything, he’ll hold Sekera back to cover more in the D-zone than to push the breakout.

Tye

In order of quality of comp.

Lucic, Nuge, Drai.
Pouli, McD, Ebs.
Maroon, Lander, Pool Party.
Hendo, TheNuts, Pak/Kass. (whatever)

Sekera, Larsson.
Klef, Fayne.
Nurse, Davidson.

Talbot.
Gus-gus (LB AHL #1)

oilswell

admiralmark: You are assuming there was never going to be any other option to fix RHD other then moving Hall. We have heard from decent sources that Hamonic was available if Oilers would give up Nurse as part of a package. As has been hashed on here Demers + Seversson/Redmond + Lucic could have been achieved without giving up Hall. It sounds to me that maybe you feel Hall is merely a good player as opposed to elite.I consider him elite and as GM would of treated him as such.

In my mind the Larsson deal probably brought the team closer to the playoffs but further from a Cup. We will sorely miss the constant attack that Hall brings to the game when this team hits the playoffs.

A key question for the Chiarelli’s time with the Oilers has to have been “how quickly can he bring the D and G in line with a contending team”? There is an essential time element to the question, he doesn’t have forever and there aren’t infinite options along the way.

Now, I can’t defend the Hall trade as a transaction, but I am also highly skeptical that a “grazing opportunistically for D” strategy is one I can endorse for the Oilers GM to follow. If I were the owner I would ask my GM to outline his strategy for building a contending core in three years, and I don’t think I would have accepted “I’m going to hope a top RHD falls to us sometime in free agency” or “we will address it in the draft”.

So I guess can get behind the idea of trading something really substantial up front for a player like Larsson even if I find the actual trade to be repugnant. Preferably in year one but certainly within the first two years of Chiarelli.

Really wonder if they could have had Hamonic for less than Hall.

AsiaOil

An older expensive winger, draft bust and mid-first round pick will not get you a big, highly coveted RHD no matter what other “issues” are out there. EDM has extra young LHD – if there is a deal to be made – that is the currency we will use.

Kiltymcbagpipes:
Surely some package of Poo+Yak/Fayne+1st to Winnipeg, Trouba to Colorado and Barrie to Edmonton can be worked out couldn’t it?

AsiaOil

RPG: Can you really make this comparison? Six years takes Hall back to his rookie season. Lucic had already played 4 seasons when Hall was a rookie.

You can compare only last year or all 6 seasons – doesn’t change the result much. Hall is a top 10 LW in the league. I like OV, Benn and Pacioretty better as they bring a power forward physical element that Hall is missing – but Hall is certainly in the 2nd tier with D Sedin, Landeskog, Johhny G, Parise, and yes even Lucic. Hall is a better scorer but Looch brings a physical element, defense and better leadership. For me I’d call it a wash frankly but I value the other stuff more than just the boxcars. Looch’s boxcar’s are pretty damn good though.

What if we had traded Hall for Lucic and signed Larsson as a UFA? I’d bet the narrative would be different even though the result is exactly the same. If a better deal for a RHD was there it would have been made. I still have not seen one RHD who is both better than Larssson and actually available for just Hall being mentioned. Subban would have been Hall plus JP and maybe more – supposedly Pietrangelo was the same. I’ve come to the conclusion that we have escaped from an absolutely horrible mess on defense that the previous mgmt set us up with – but it cost a top 10 LW. Larsson is not and will likely never be a top 10 dman – but he may in fact end up being a top 10 RHD if he can break the 30 point level.

Ducey

Water Fire: Turn your joke detector back on!

Fixed

I hope 🙂

oilswell

LMHF#1: Doubt he’d have come to visit if that was the case.

The FLA offer may have been out of left field…or Chiarelli just changed course.

Really? Maybe you haven’t been in a position to consider several job opportunities with salary negotiation as part of the equation. I would fully expect Demers to investigate more than one option and pick a single one and spurn the rest. Who wouldn’t want to check out more than one option?

And even if he disliked Edmonton secretly if I’m his agent I tell him to go there and sound legitimately interested and get the largest handshake agreement possible to use as leverage in negotiation with the place you really want to go to.

I can easily imagine Chiarelli not getting Demers without ridiculous overpay. If that’s the case what’s Chiarelli’s move?

Admiral Ackbar

Richard S.S.,

$$ is going to be a concern of this team too. It seems rather alarming to see the lack of capspace for this lineup. Fayne, Hendricks and a few others come off the books soon but Drai, McD, Yak and a few others will be in line for a raise. I trust the North American economy won’t tank and the cap will increase again in the following years.

Spending $5mil on a 4th line is a recipe for a problem. Hopefully moving forward that’s Juju, Pak & another cheap winger.

Kiltymcbagpipes

Surely some package of Poo+Yak/Fayne+1st to Winnipeg, Trouba to Colorado and Barrie to Edmonton can be worked out couldn’t it?

Water Fire

Ducey: Try to keep up.

The Oilers need Fayne + 2 RHD. Trading Larsson for Barrie doesn’t solve the problem.

Anyway Larsson > Barrie.

Turn your joke detector back on!

stevezie

Richard S.S.:
Winnipeg does not want to pay Trouba.They need everything, but what do they want?

Very well phrased.

Trouba is not our ideal need (we need some scoring), but he still fits the ultimate need- good rhD. A PP specialist would be great, but good is the important thing. Just get someone good.

Good teams fine tune. Bad teams (us) greedily inhale all the talent they can get. Or they should.

Richard S.S.

Winnipeg does not want to pay Trouba. They need everything, but what do they want?

Richard S.S.

Rumor has it they wanted more than Yakupov as a third piece, so it suggests they were happy with Pouliot and the 1st.

Ducey

Water Fire:
Larsson for Barrie, straight up.

Try to keep up.

The Oilers need Fayne + 2 RHD. Trading Larsson for Barrie doesn’t solve the problem.

Anyway Larsson > Barrie.

Ducey

Professor Q: That’s an interesting decline by Colorado. Yet another overpay by Edmonton, if true.

Professor Q: It’s an overpay because Barrie wants out. Yet I wouldn’t put it past Edmonton to not take advantage of that.

Not to mention it was only Yak and Pou for Vatanen/Lindholm earlier on.

I am having trouble following you.

Barrie wants $. COL MIGHT move him because they are cheap and the coach does not value him (speculation). On the other hand they have 1 other RHD and cap room. They don’t need to move him and its hard to see why they would.

The fact that there were rumours of Yak and Pou doesn’t mean they are true. Further, THOSE TRADES OBVIOUSLY DID NOT WORK.

Its like me telling you that you paid too much for that car. You tell me you paid $5000. I say: “you overpaid man, I offered $4800 and they told me to get lost.”

If they got Barrie for Yak (a flop), Pou (a good but hardly star LW) and a lottery protected 1st, I think most people here would be very happy

Richard S.S.

Anaheim might want a Center as theirs are getting really old. Would Vatanen plus a 2nd work?

spoiler

Frank the dog: In fairness, Hall played for a lottery team, Lucic for a contender. Had Hall been in LA and Lucic here I am sure the picture would have been quite different.

Well, if Hall is the river-pusher, getting the best linemates, the most TOI and facing the toughest opp, a lot of why the team is a lottery team is on him and the 4 other players.

The question is how much has a poor defense hampered his numbers?

Also, one would expect the river pusher to shine on the PP, when there is a clear advantage over any opposition, but Hall’s numbers are very middling. He’s 8th on the team in P/60 over the past 3 years, tied with Benoit Pouliot. When we expand that to the entire league, he’s very meh.

Professor Q

LoDog: You also said Lindholm. One was rumoured to be in play for Poo/Yak one was not.

I thought both were in contention. I have no idea. It was all over the place and for quite some time, and there are those who would say it was only whispers of wind upon the rocks or as sure as wetness after rain.

Frank the dog

RPG: Can you really make this comparison? Six years takes Hall back to his rookie season. Lucic had already played 4 seasons when Hall was a rookie.

In fairness, Hall played for a lottery team, Lucic for a contender. Had Hall been in LA and Lucic here I am sure the picture would have been quite different.

spoiler

Drew: wonder if systems comes into play along with player type(strengths weaknesses)

I would expect so. Trap teams and cycle teams and rush teams should show different numbers. Or at least that’s my non-mathy intuition.

Edit: That’s why it is dangerous to compare Corsis across teams… it’s better to look at rankings and CorsiRel, etc.

Drew

spoiler: Looking at Hall’s top 12 Players Against, the only guy he really hammers on a Corsi basis is Michael Backlund.He has a decent edge on both Doan and Jannik Hansen too but not spectacular.He saws off Marleau on Corsi, but hammers him in GF/GA.He scores well against Kesler and the Sedins, despite losing the Corsi battle.

wonder if systems comes into play along with player type(strengths weaknesses)

Extend Russell

Woodguy,

Nice write up. I like how you explain everything step by step. It’s pretty much what Riki has been saying but dummed down.

Would it be fair to compare Larsson to Josi ? Or Hjarmalson ? Relating to suppressing high danger shots ?

spoiler

Drew: wonder if we plotted an individuals performance against their top 25 opponents we found wild variationsacross them? how must a really bad game would influence results?

Certainly if you are looking at one season, a bad game can horribly skew results and there are some hilarious anomalies when you look at players through that smaller window.

spoiler

Drew: well then the oilers (and hall) had their ass handed to them by this particular player. as hall was an out scorer he must have done very well against other good competition?

Looking at Hall’s top 12 Players Against, the only guy he really hammers on a Corsi basis is Michael Backlund. He has a decent edge on both Doan and Jannik Hansen too but not spectacular. He saws off Marleau on Corsi, but hammers him in GF/GA. He scores well against Kesler and the Sedins, despite losing the Corsi battle.

Drew

spoiler: Over three years, it was 46 minutes, making Hall the 12th most player Lucic has played against over that time period.

wonder if we plotted an individuals performance against their top 25 opponents we found wild variations across them? how must a really bad game would influence results?

John Chambers

Professor Q: I did say Vatanen.

We can only speculate that was the trade offer. Like many other media-speculated trades it’s inconclusive as to whether it was at all real.

Drew

Water Fire:
Larsson for Barrie, straight up.

no way…

Water Fire

Larsson for Barrie, straight up.

LoDog

Professor Q: I did say Vatanen.

You also said Lindholm. One was rumoured to be in play for Poo/Yak one was not.

RPG

AsiaOil: The last 6 years:

Taylor Hall 381GP 132-196-328 -27
Milan Lucic 448GP 125-183-308 +112

Can you really make this comparison? Six years takes Hall back to his rookie season. Lucic had already played 4 seasons when Hall was a rookie.

Professor Q

linkfromhyrule: IIRC that deal was for Vatanen

I did say Vatanen.

Tapdog

godot10: Barrie doesn’t want out.He wants to be paid.#bigdifference

I beg to differ, I think Barrie wants out and is going to use the Arbitration to push the issue with Colorado..
It unfortunately will take time but Barrie will be an Oiler.

Drew

spoiler: Over three years, it was 46 minutes, making Hall the 12th most player Lucic has played against over that time period.

well then the oilers (and hall) had their ass handed to them by this particular player. as hall was an out scorer he must have done very well against other good competition?

Having Lucic and Hall on the same team would allow significant match up advantages then? i edited past comment as i did not want it to seem to flippant.

Gayfish

Chances are Barrie will get a good arbitration settlement. Sounds like Colorado won’t pay him in that case, thus their desperation to trade. Letting them off the hook with huge is asinine. Either out wait them like Puljujarvi, or flip them reinhart and a second. We don’t need to act like coke addicts over a half-decent defensemen.

Blackwolf

Professor Q,

There was a rumour of a trade with the ducks that would have involved poo and nail. No duck player was ever named. Maybe vat, you would not get LindHolm for that.

spoiler

Drew: oh as well, you are one of my favorite stats posters. the sample size for the comparison, really?

Over three years, it was 46 minutes, making Hall the 12th most player Lucic has played against over that time period.

linkfromhyrule

Professor Q: From what I recall, the trade offer was Yakupov and Pouliot, until Pouliot got injured.

IIRC that deal was for Vatanen

Drew

Professor Q: He is an Oiler now, not a King. :p

arghhhhhhh!!!!!

Professor Q

godot10: Barrie doesn’t want out.He wants to be paid.#bigdifference

And it was never anything less than Hall for Lindholm.

From what I recall, the trade offer was Yakupov and Pouliot, until Pouliot got injured.

Professor Q

Drew: he is a king as well…

i like the player, not even the worst contract for free agent period. i am just greedy want all the cake, then eat it all as well.

He is an Oiler now, not a King. :p

godot10

Professor Q: It’s an overpay because Barrie wants out. Yet I wouldn’t put it past Edmonton to not take advantage of that.

Not to mention it was only Yak and Pou for Vatanen/Lindholm earlier on.

Barrie doesn’t want out. He wants to be paid. #bigdifference

And it was never anything less than Hall for Lindholm.

Drew

spoiler:
Last three years, GoalsFor/60and Goals against, with CorsiFor/60 and CorsiAgainst/60

Lucic

GF60… GA60 … CF60…CA60

2.92 …. 1.83 …. 63.08 …. 52.02

Hall

GF60… GA60 … CF60…CA60

2.75…. 2.73…. 55.62…. 58.42

Now Corsi, despite how much we use it to evaluate individuals is also a team stat.

Both players are generally in the top echelon of their team with regards to Corsi.Hall usually gets the best linemates and the toughest opp, Lucic best to 2nd best against toughest to 2nd toughest opp (his usage varied quite a bit looking at the WOWYs).

But Hall happens to be one of the players Lucic has played against the most.We have to be careful with Opposition WOWYs because we are using much smaller sample sizes (one of the reasons I’m going 3 years of data).

Here are Lucic’s Goals and Corsi rates vs. Hall:

GF60… GA60 … CF60…CA60

9.137 …. 1.305 …. 75.71 …. 49.60

Which player is the King and which player is the Jack?

Now granted, Hall has an elite scoring rate… his P/60 total is outstanding over the past 3 years.But his PP P/60 is not elite and as you can see from above, he gets scored on almost as much as his line scores.

as previous comment i really like Lucic as well. add more kings get ride of some 6’s and 7’s and fill roster with low low cost 3’s

grab better Dmen all the time look for 9’s and 10′ and watch for face cards when they are available and the other players don’t see you for a sucker.

oh as well, you are one of my favorite stats posters. the sample size for the comparison, really how much value is their?

spoiler

LMHF#1: Doubt he’d have come to visit if that was the case.

Negotiating tactic. And a safety net.

Drew

AsiaOil:
If Taylor Hall is considered a King – what is Milan Lucic?

The last 6 years:

Taylor Hall381GP132-196-328-27
Milan Lucic 448GP125-183-308 +112

We downgraded a bit at 1LW in terms of offense – upgraded pretty substantially in terms of size, health, defense, leadership and toughness. What we gained was pretty damn important and what Lucic said at his introduction about playing the Oilers was well known. No one was scared of the Oilers as you could physically challenge that core and it would fold like a wet paper bag. Will be interesting to see who scores more points this year – Lucic or Hall – and it’s not a slam dunk considering who Lucic will play with and who Hall will play with. I’m over this and the rebalance works for me largely because I think we replaced most of what Hall brings at LW and even added in a number of areas where he was weak.

At the end of the season you could see a new attitude on the Oilers emerging when Kass, Maroon, Hendo and Nurse were running around creating mayhem. The opposition was clearly pissed off but thinking hard about the consequences of responding – mostly they didn’t. I can’t wait to see what it looks like after adding Lucic and Pouliot (who was hurt). No one is going to circle Oiler games as an “easy night” anymore and skill guys like CMD, Nuge and Ebs will have a lot of room to work. Even the new skill guys (Drai/JP) are big.

Yak and Ebs have a challenge going forward and I would start both in the top 6 – whoever plays the most complete game and bring the offense stays. Who ever doesn’t want to play a complete game and bring offense gets traded and replaced by JP next season. I’ve got a feeling that losing Hall and gaining Lucic is going to completely change the locker room dynamic on this team – and in that sense – Hall was the one to move. Ebs and RNH will fall in line with the new leadership. I’ve got a totally unsupported feeling that Yak may finally feel comfortable in that dressing room this fall if he’s still around. If we get another dman it will be a swap of LHD for RHD – no need to trade a forward like RNH. We have the time now to be patient sellers of LHD and not a desperate buyer of RHD. That has been addressed – price was high – but it was always going to be.

This is going to be fun for the first time in a long time and we are going to crush the Flames on opening night in the new barn to give them a taste of what the next 5 years will be like.

he is a king as well…

i like the player, not even the worst contract for free agent period. i am just greedy want all the cake, then eat it all as well.

spoiler

Last three years, GoalsFor/60 and Goals against, with CorsiFor/60 and CorsiAgainst/60 (5v5)

Lucic:

GF60 … GA60 … CF60 … CA60

2.92 ….. 1.83 ….. 63.08 …. 52.02


Hall:

GF60 … GA60 … CF60 … CA60

2.75 ….. 2.73 ….. 55.62 …. 58.42

Now Corsi, despite how much we use it to evaluate individuals is really a team stat. However it is pretty clear the puck is in the opposing end more often with Looch. This might be telling us Hall’s points come off the rush more, whilst Lucic can establish Zone Presence or cycle better.

Both players are generally in the top echelon of their team with regards to Corsi. Hall usually gets the best linemates and the toughest opp, Lucic best to 2nd best against toughest to 2nd toughest opp (his usage varied quite a bit looking at the WOWYs).

But Hall happens to be one of the players Lucic has played against the most. We have to be careful with Opposition WOWYs because we are using much smaller sample sizes (one of the reasons I’m going 3 years of data).

Here are Lucic’s Goals and Corsi rates vs. Hall (5v5):

GF60 … GA60 … CF60 … CA60

9.137 …. 1.305 …. 75.71 …. 49.60

Which player is the King and which player is the Jack?

Now granted, Hall has an elite scoring rate… his P/60 total is outstanding over the past 3 years. But his PP P/60 is not elite and as you can see from above, he gets scored on almost as much as his line scores.

Professor Q

godot10: How is that an overpay?

If the Oilers offer sheet Barrie at a reasonable level, he will cost a 1st and a 3rd, and the Avalanche would likely match a reasonable offer sheet.

Pouliot is 30ish and Yakupov is a failed 1st round pick.It is more compensation than an offer sheet but not excessively so.

I wouldn’t trade Barrie for a 1st, Pouliot, and Yakupov.

It’s an overpay because Barrie wants out. Yet I wouldn’t put it past Edmonton to not take advantage of that.

Not to mention it was only Yak and Pou for Vatanen/Lindholm earlier on.

Drew

spoiler: I get the impression from Chia that Demers was never an option.That is, the player never had any desire to come here.

So what’s the next step?

I wondered about this… why come here for the dog and pony? the deal he signed is (in my opinion) lower than expected. i have to believe that Demers overplayed things and that $ and term could have been done. I am suggesting that Chia was pissed that Demers ended up signing for less than Oilers and he then felt (was compelt to) the hall deal.

i believe that a upgrade on RHD will shake out later in summer. there was some talk on radio that Fayne was very out of shape last year and poor play was result, can he be better as his agent has suggested?

we hope.

Frank the dog

AsiaOil:
As for Demers – you don’t need to be a mind-reader to guess how Chia felt at the Lucic intro. His response to a question about him was interesting. See 7:45 at the following:

https://www.nhl.com/oilers/video/raw–peter-chiarelli/t-277437406/c-44330903

Chia has a pretty good poker face and let’s very little through – but you can see he was pissed off as the question was being asked – then he “reset” himself for the terse reply. I think Demers backed out of a handshake deal with EDM after the FLA offer came through and the only way he was going to come was at an obscene overpay. Think Yandle money. Pure speculation on my part.

Or Demers said yes and the wife said no.

LMHF#1

spoiler: I get the impression from Chia that Demers was never an option.That is, the player never had any desire to come here.

So what’s the next step?

Doubt he’d have come to visit if that was the case.

The FLA offer may have been out of left field…or Chiarelli just changed course.

godot10

Professor Q: That’s an interesting decline by Colorado. Yet another overpay by Edmonton, if true.

How is that an overpay?

If the Oilers offer sheet Barrie at a reasonable level, he will cost a 1st and a 3rd, and the Avalanche would likely match a reasonable offer sheet.

Pouliot is 30ish and Yakupov is a failed 1st round pick. It is more compensation than an offer sheet but not excessively so.

I wouldn’t trade Barrie for a 1st, Pouliot, and Yakupov.