BIG TIME

by Lowetide

There is talk of a trade for Tyson Barrie or Cam Fowler, but we can probably begin the process of sussing out the Oilers roster for 2016-17. The nature of this year’s 50-man list is that we are going to see (I believe) a lot of roster shuffling at the bottom end—and of course injuries will have their say. Let’s have a look at the current situation.

ROSTER LOCKS (100 PERCENT) (19)

  • Goal (1): Cam Talbot
  • Defense (6): Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Andrej Sekera, Mark Fayne, Brandon Davidson, Darnell Nurse
  • Center (4): Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl, Mark Letestu
  • Left Wing (4): Milan Lucic, Benoit Pouliot, Patrick Maroon, Matt Hendricks
  • Right Wing (4): Jordan Eberle, Nail Yakupov, Zack Kassian, Iiro Pakarinen

2016-17 HOPEFULS

  1. R Jesse Puljujarvi. 70 percent. It is probably higher, but I am hopeful the Oilers bring him along slowly. He isn’t skating at the Orientation camp and won’t see the ice for a little more of the summer. Sounds like he will be fine, but this number reflects what we hope will be a reasonable approach to breaking him in this fall. Cap bonus worry also comes into play.
  2. LD Jordan Oesterle. 70 percent. Oesterle is very mobile and has proven to be a quick study in coverage, positioning and making good outlet passes at the NHL level. You can never be sure—he has no draft pedigree at all—but that footspeed can work on offense and defense.
  3. G Jonas Gustavsson. 70 percent. He is the favorite to win the backup job, but is not a guarantee to win it. Brossoit would have to clearly outplay the veteran, but JG is vulnerable as early as training camp in my opinion.
  4. C Anton Lander. 70 percent. The Oilers at center are a little up in the air, but will no doubt have 5 Cs on the roster. I don’t think Lander is a lock for the job—two other Cs appear on this list—but he should be able to win out over the competition this fall. As is the case with all of these names, a single trade could change the odds.
  5. C Jujhar Khaira. 30 percent. Khaira performed well a year ago in his NHL debut, and PC didn’t sign a lot of strong competition (imo) for the final roster spot. The club could decide on using a Gazdic, but the look of the 50-man so far allows for a reasonably talented last forward.
  6. G Laurent Brossoit. 30 percent. I don’t see much of a gap beyond experience, and there shouldn’t be a major waiver worry with Gustavsson. Brossoit did struggle in a small sample size late last year, but the Oilers believe in him and there is no reason to keep him on the farm if he is playing well.
  7. LD David Musil. 12 percent. A reasonable option for 7D, Musil is a shutdown defender and could probably help on the PK. Famous for his draft position, I think there is a small window of opportunity. Would have been higher, but the Mark Fraser addition gives me pause.
  8. LD Mark Fraser. 12 percent. I was surprised by this signing, because Edmonton has a bunch of LHDs pushing for NHL work. I still think he is a Bakersfield option, but there is a chance EDM wants a vet 7D.
  9. R Tyler Pitlick. 10 percent. Health has always been his issue, but he has enough talent to put himself in the conversation if he off the IR. Edmonton signed him for another year, so they must feel he can help them on some level.
  10. L Drake Caggiula. 8 percent. Speedy skill winger is somewhat unique on the hopefuls list—he has enough skill to play on a scoring line. NHLE is 22 goals and over 40 points, it will be interesting to see who he skates with during TC.
  11. R Taylor Beck. 6 percent. New signing, his contract tells me there is a chance he will appear in the NHL this season. Beck has size, some skill and is versatile—he might be a good fit in the 14F role.
  12. R Patrick Russell. 5 percent. His NCAA numbers combined with his size and resume make him an attractive option for the Oilers. His time is now, he is 23.
  13. LD Griffin Reinhart. 5 percent. Honestly I think this is generous. Reinhart without his contract bonus would be second on this list behind Oesterle. The Oilers have potential bonuses of over $10 million if you include McDavid, Draisaitl, Puljujarvi (assuming his deal is in the range of Laine’s), Reinhart and Nurse. I cannot see him making the opening night roster.
  14. LD Dillon Simpson. 1 percent. Opening night is a distant bell, but he impressed his AHL coach with his consistency and I think that might get him an extended look this fall—despite the Leftorium. He may get a cup of coffee later in the year.
  15. R Anton Slepyshev. 1 percent. When you look at size, skill, speed, and the progression of the Russian boxcars, he looked like a player coming into TC last year. He did not perform well in the AHL, got hurt, and the year unraveled. I think he gets another chance at some point this year.

This begins the RE series and of course the Oilers will make a blockbuster trade later today. The opening night roster (by my estimation) will look like this:

  • Goal: Cam Talbot (starter), Jonas Gustavsson
  • Defense: Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Andrej Sekera, Mark Fayne, Brandon Davidson, Darnell Nurse, Jordan Oesterle
  • Center: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl, Mark Letestu, Anton Lander
  • Left Wing: Milan Lucic, Benoit Pouliot, Patrick Maroon, Matt Hendricks
  • Right Wing: Jordan Eberle, Jesse Puljujarvi, Nail Yakupov, Zack Kassian, Iiro Pakarinen

Klefbom is a vital part of the Oilers defense over the next several years, so this has to work out for the organization. The young defender is by far the most promising among a group of high picks that include Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart.

OSCAR KLEFBOM 15-16

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.09 (1st among regular D)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.27 (2nd among regular D)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 50.5
  • Qual Comp: 2nd toughest among D (first pairing)
  • Qual Team: 4th best available among D (second pairing)
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: 6.8
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 48 shots/8.3%
  • Boxcars: 30gp, 4-8-12 .400

This is a dandy player card, showing Oscar useful at both ends of the ice. His offensive ability was obscured early in his career, his boxcars improving as he rose up the higher depth charts at the pro level. That is unusual, especially for a blue. A healthy Klefbom goes a long way to helping this team rise in the standings.

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER

oilers d final vollman 15-16The Vollman shows that Klefbom is already in the difficult part of the graph and possesses a nice blue bubble. It is so Oiler that he is the one to come down with an injury that is both freak and slightly scary in possible long-term impact (foot injuries, if they are recurring, can derail a career). It is encouraging that the young man skated in June here in Edmonton and felt good, and the idea of getting a more comfortable boot is a good idea. Safe to say we will all feel better when he dresses for 75 games or more in the coming year.

This is a must read, and talks about (with more clarity and evidence) the difficulty Griffin Reinhart is going to have making this team. I wonder if the cap worry is enough in and of itself for Edmonton to consider dealing GR? Perhaps the team thinks it wise to keep him for the coming expansion draft, and of course he could be recalled later in the year when cap bonuses are no longer in reach.

https://twitter.com/NicholsOnHockey/status/750058042884960257

  • Chiarelli: “So generally speaking guys, you know what – it’s a tough business. You make these decisions. Whatever you do, social media is going to criticize you. Whatever you do. It’s like talk radio. It’s a really public forum and you just (laughs) you don’t look at it, basically.”

I think this is generally untrue. Peter Chiarelli has received positive reviews on moves that seemed positive on first blush (Talbot trade, Andrej Sekera signing, Maroon trade, Lucic signing—even things that are a stretch, like not trading up for Puljujarvi—are received positively), and has been hammered soundly on things that were net negative (Reinhart trade, Korpikoski trade, Hall trade). There is so much commentary that you could probably find media outside those lines, but most things I have read about these things made sense at the time.

As I said yesterday on the Lowdown, I can’t tell you the Hall trade was a good deal just to make you feel better. I can tell you that Larsson looks like a substantial addition to the blue line. and that I cannot foresee a time in the future where pundits agree that the Oilers won this deal (beyond an injury, et cetera). Peter Chiarelli got ripped because the trade was not full value. At some level, it is the media’s job to hold him to account, and I think that has been done.

One true thing: The defense needed to be fixed and I do think Larsson is a strong addition and a big part of the solution.

Milan Lucic is a very productive possession player, as shown via the wowys at Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com. The same site shows he is ranked No. 40 in 5×5 points-per-60 among the NHL among forwards with 400 or more minutes at even strength. Lucic ranks No. 5 among NHL LWs in even-strength points (47), just six behind Taylor Hall.

Lucic does not score 30 goals a year (he has done it once) and he does not shoot the puck 300 times in a season. He is an unusual player, an enforcer with soft hands, and because of it has averaged 30 assists per 82 games in his career. That is a big part of his value.

There are things to criticize about the Lucic deal—it is too long, he plays a rugged style and that often means physical breakdown around age 30—but Milan Lucic is a unique player—because he brings 50-point seasons to a policeman’s game.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy show beginning at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, Cult of Hockey. Much to talk about with Mr. Willis, including the most newsworthy week in many years for the Oilers. We will chat about the big items.
  • Guy Flaming, The Pipeline Show. The 2016 draft and what surprised Guy, along with an early look at names being discussed for the 2017 draft.
  • Paul Sir, The Basketball Hour. A crazy free-agency period in the NBA, where money is running wild. Paul will break it down and tell us how Oakland became the strongest FA market in the league.

I can be reached at 10-1260 via text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

171 comments
0

You may also like

0 0 vote
Article Rating
171 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Jaxon

Who has the best collection of right-handed D in the league, both roster players, and prospects?

I would say St. Louis with: Pietrangelo, Parayko, Shattenkirk, Schmaltz, Morgan Ellis? Wow. Ellis was a solid add for nothing this summer.

Who else is close?
Florida built an amazing right side this summer with Ekblad, Demers, Petrovic and Pysyk. Jealous.
Buffalo has Ristolainen, Bogosian, Franson and Casey Nelson. Ristolainen would have been a nice pick. Bogosian is a great 2nd pair D and Franson is in a perfect spot as a 3rd pair who can play PP.
Winnipeg has Byfuglien, Myers, Trouba, Postma, Kichton and Nogier. They’re set.
Anaheim has Bieksa, Vatanen, Manson, Montour and Welinski. Depth and youth.
Nashville now has Subban, Ellis, & *Yannick* Weber… Amazing top 2 RHD, not much after that, but I’m sure Nashville will find more RHD dpeth. They always do.
Los Angeles has Doughty, Greene, Gilbert and Trotman.2 decent depth pickups this summer to play behind great top 4.
New York Islanders have Hamonic, Boychuk, Pulock and Mayfield. Solid top 2 RHD.
Montreal has Weber, Petry, Redmond, Sergachyev and Juulsen. They actually look pretty solid for a long time. If Sergachyev and Juulsen live up to potential, Weber could be an expensive but valuable mentor in his later years. Redmond was a great add for nothing this summer.
Washington has Carlson, Niskanen and Madison Bowey. Wow, very solid. Orlov is left hander playing right on the roster right now.
Carolina has Faulk, Pesce, Murphy. Solid.
Colorado has Johnson and Barrie. Great top 2 RHD. Nothing much after that.
Arizona has Michael Stone, Connor Murphy, McBain, Deangelo and Dysin Mayo. Decent right side and relatively young.
Calgary has Hamilton, Wideman, Kenney Morrison and Rasmus Andersson. Decent on the roster and in the system.
Dallas has Klingberg and Stephen Johns, with Julius Honka in the system. Really moved toward youth this summer. Letting Demers go was a big gamble.
Columbus has Jones, Savard, Prout, Goloubef and Ramage. Solid top 2 RHD.
Edmonton has Larsson, Fayne and Ethan Bear. It’s a start but it still needs work. They left a lot on the table. A few minor moves could have done wonders for their RHD depth. Demers, Zach Redmond, Morgan Ellis, and Michael Paliotta were all had for cheap money that the Oilers could surely have topped. Demers must have wanted quite a bit more to come to Edmontont for them to back off (I’m assuming).
Minnesota has Spurgeon, Dumba, Folin and Prosser. Not real deep so I’m not sure why they’re in trade rumours.
San Jose has Burns, Braun, Demelo, Brodzinski and Jeremy Roy. Burns and an okay Braun then youth after that. Burns is a UFA next summer.
Chicago has Seabrook, VanRiemsdyk, Ville Pokka, Rundblad? Seabrook and youth, not much depth.
New York Rangers have Girardi, Klein, McIlrath and Michael Paliotta. Paliotta was a wise gamble.
Vancouver has Tanev, Gudbranson, P. Larsen? and J Subban. Okay top 2 RHD but then Larsen. They suck.
Tampa Bay has Stralman, Sustr, Matt Spencer and Bigos. Stralman, fancy stat darling.
New Jersey has Severson, Santini and Scarlett. Yikes. Letting Larsson go was a scary decision.
Toronto has Robidas, Polak, Corrado, Connor Carrick and Nikita Zaitsev. Zaitzev could be a game changer for their right side.
Boston has McQuaig, K Miller, C Miller and Brandon Carlo. Meh. McQuaig is not a top pair D and I would have loved to have Colin and Kevan Miller, but they need a true top pair RHD.
Detroit has Green and Marchenko with Sproul and Russo. Green reviving his career in Detroit and some solid prospects in Sproul and Russo but nothing to write home about.
Philadelphia has Gudas. That’s it.
Pittsburgh has Letang. That’s it, but it’s hard to argue with the Stanley Cup Champs.

jm363561

JimmyV1965: Yet you ignore the stat that Hall is the third highest scoring player 5×5 in the NHL over the last five years. And maybe this stat doesn’t tell the whole story, but to lessen the value of Hall because he hasn’t scored 30 is ridiculous. What was that other stat; when Hall is on the ice the Oilers score 52% of the goals and when he’s not on the ice, they score 38% of the goals.

The other stat is that the team’s results were no different whether or not Hall played. It’s hard to understand this – turnovers, defensive shortcomings, carrying an injury, small sample (not), QoC? (There is a favourable home / away bias in games Hall played).

Oilers 2014-15 results:
– With Hall – 41 points in 53 games (16-28-9) = 0.77 points per game
– Entire season – 62 points (sob) in 82 games (24-44-14) = 0.76 points per game

northof51

Ca$h-McMoney!: He hasn’t really.

Benn has played in 100% of games and scored at a 1.07ppg pace over the past 2 years.

Hall has played 82% of games and scored at a 0.75ppg pace.

I like Hall, but he hasn’t produced like Benn.Not even close.

We are not disagreeing. You just put more time and thought into your post while mine was a hasty reaction.

In other words, I could’ve said that Hall has scored at a similar per 60 minute rate as Benn in the last X years (as has been pointed out by several others). But yes, in more recent terms there is nobody on the planet that could rightly state that Taylor Hall = Jamie Benn. I loved having Hall on the Oilers, and I will miss him, but he is not nearly the hockey player that Jamie Benn is.

OilersFuture

GCW_69,

It’s difficult to answer the question because the surrounding team around Hall has been so bad. Also, the team that he’s going to is likely not that strong. So Hall might not become elite.

The Oiler’s generated 34% more goals and 6% more Corsi Events when Taylor Hall was on the ice this past season without being paired with McDavid. Lucic isn’t going to replace that offensive production and he’s not going to push the river like Hall did. The Oiler’s might miss this if they ever make the playoffs. But I do believe fancy stats people are cherry picking Taylor’s numbers, a little, when they say, that in the past 4 seasons Hall is only behind Benn & Crosby in Pts/60. Which was unsustainable.

Hall’s Pts/60 in the past two season’s is 2.15. Which is a great, great player but not elite in the Jamie Benn & Sidney Crosby spectrum. Taylor Hall is a top 10 winger in the NHL. Which holds a different value from a top pairing defenseman.

Taylor Hall in a standard 82 game season should get you roughly 47 Even Strength points per season. Provided he plays 16 minutes a night and produces at 2.15 5X5 scoring rate. Now Lucic, (without McDavid) plays 15 minutes a night at evens and produces 1.9 Pts/60. So he could be projected to score roughly 39 points if he plays a full 82 game season.

Neither are impressive on the PP Hall ranks 141 & Lucic ranks 161 amongst forwards in PP Pts/60.

The last two seasons Larsson is number one (in the entire league) for GA60 with 1.52 and is 28.9% improvement versus his teamate. That’s elite level defending. Of course Andy Greene is part of it. I think with MSM looked at the trade it was already in their minds that the Oilers lost the deal.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?disp=1&db=201416&sit=5v5&pos=defense&minutes=1000&teamid=0&type=goals&sort=A60&sortdir=ASC

Larsson is also in the top 20 for CA60 with 48.98 and is better than his teamates 49.9. While playing against the top oppossition. The top oppositiion does signifgantly better when they are not playing against Larsson.

Player – CF Attempts +/- when NOT against Larrson
Player CF
CROSBY, SIDNEY 28.04 (Generates 28.04 more Corsi attempts when not against Larsson)
FOLIGNO, NICK -4.34
STEPAN, DEREK 12.78
ATKINSON, CAM 2.13
PACIORETTY, MAX 40.45
KREIDER, CHRIS 20.06
OVECHKIN, ALEX 24.55
STAAL, JORDAN 30.55
ZUCCARELLO, MATS 19.76
GIROUX, CLAUDE 25.04

Where Larsson lacks based on the advanced stats is in the offensive zone. The Devils don’t generate shots and he doesn’t generate much offense. From looking at Seversson, the Devils do not generate much offensve from the backend. I believe they are the lowest scoring defensive team.

Not sure if this even answers your question but I think that the Oiler’s are a better team today than they were at the end of last season.

Frank the dog

Snowman:
Frank the dog,

They didn’t go for Demers. He was a backup plan for Larsson. After the Oilers got Larsson Rishaug said they were out on Demers because they had gotten Larsson.

He was plan B.

Edit: I had read differently and had not seen the Rishaug quote.

Tapdog

square_wheels:
Tapdog,

Good for him though, that off-ice issue he’s dealing with is awful.

Very true..

square_wheels

Tapdog,

Good for him though, that off-ice issue he’s dealing with is awful.

Tapdog

I think the Flames have LT on “must read”!!
Every time someone on here mentions a player that the Oilers should look at signing……..the Flames sign them.
Linden Vey sign a two way with Calgary.
Crazy??

square_wheels

Little Poteet,

Some VERY nice players on that list. Have to think StL signs Schwartz and TB both guys.

Hoffman seems to have had a strained relationship with Ottawa, I wonder if they think his points are a result of PP and linemate zoomage ?

LT suggest you add to the LTictionary both “Zoomage” and CofA’s “legaleeze”

Ca$h-McMoney!

northof51: I see this is going off the rails. Taylor Hall has scored at a similar rate as Jamie Benn but he is not Jamie Benn. And it is obvious that 29 real NHL GMs think Hall has a fractional trade value of Benn.

He hasn’t really.

Benn has played in 100% of games and scored at a 1.07ppg pace over the past 2 years.

Hall has played 82% of games and scored at a 0.75ppg pace.

I like Hall, but he hasn’t produced like Benn. Not even close.

Snowman

Frank the dog,

They didn’t go for Demers. He was a backup plan for Larsson. After the Oilers got Larsson Rishaug said they were out on Demers because they had gotten Larsson.

He was plan B.

Thor762

Wasn’t Mike Hoffman one of the Senators leading scorers? With a big shot? Kind of surprised Ottawa let him get to arbitration.

Frank the dog

vinotintazo: I’m on board with Peter’s way of thinking (trade a winger for a top RHD.)

But one could argue, that The oil would have been also ok if they went for Demers and added Lucic, Puljujaarvi.

if that was the case, then we needed to move out Pouliot+yak ++ for an offensive Dmen.

They did go for Demers. Gave him the full meal deal along with Lucic. It’s more likely he “Demerred” that that Chia wentin a different direction.

Snowman

Ducey,

I agree I’ve never read heard anything about him wanting to leave but its implied in a lot of the stuff I’ve read about his rift with Roy.

Connoreah

classict:
John Chambers,

It’s a little more like we traded Jamie Benn for a guy who, maybe one day if everything goes right, could become Vlasic.

No, it’s more like we traded an almost-as good as Jamie Benn for an almost-as-good as and younger Vlasic, when we had a lot of exactly Grybas on the defense and a ton of offense, including an almost-as-good Gretzky. Makes perfect sense to me.

Ducey

Snowman:
Why wouldn’t Barrie wait and let the Avs take him to arbitration? As I understand it if he takes them to arbitration the Avs get to determine term length of 1 or 2 years, if Avs take him to arbitration he gets to choose term length of 1 or 2 years…

If he really wants out of Colorado wouldn’t it make more sense to let the Avs take him to arbitration and then only accept a 1 year deal?

As far as I know, Barrie has never, ever, said he wants to leave COL. He apparently wants lots of $ and Roy doesn’t appreciate him. The team would be behind the impetus for a trade to EDM, not the player.

I will be interested in the advice on whether he can now be traded.

Centre of attention

Adrian Dater ‏@adater · 54s55 seconds ago

Hold on, I’m triple checking the “no trade til hearing happens” thing. The legalese might have tripped me up (shocker)

Little Poteet

Rondo:
24 players have elected Salary Arbitration:

http://www.nhlpa.com/news/24-players-elect-salary-arbitration

Arbitration cases are heard between July 20-Aug. 4

Some nice players on that list

Rondo

24 players have elected Salary Arbitration:

http://www.nhlpa.com/news/24-players-elect-salary-arbitration

Arbitration cases are heard between July 20-Aug. 4

RexLibris

admiralmark: Hopefully he uses the Oilers as his rebound relationship.

Those never end well.

RexLibris

B S:
RexLibris,

Thank you for this Rex. I’ve harangued the reffing for a while. and just because the team isn’t playing well is no reason to forgive bad reffing. It’s hard to work your hardest only to be hooked and cross-checked without recourse.

Bias is unavoidable, but it doesn’t mean it can’t be reduced and that should be the goal of any decent referee. I appreciate an attempt to analyze reffing without hometown bias. I consider myself fairly objective (as a scientist it’s in the job description) when I need to be, but I know I remember the slights against the Oilers better than any other calls. Hell, living in New England I’ve heard Bruins fans complain about officiating. Colin “my dad is the referee’s boss” Campbell’s Boston Bruins. so yes hometown bias is a concern. I’ll be interested to see what pops up in a detailed analysis. I think you’ve done a decent job being objective, and hopefully it will encourage others to make similar analyses for other teams.

Something to consider in the future: when I looked a penalties called for, against, and differential for Renney year two. I found that the Oilers tended to get more penalties overall in the latter half of the season, and much more relative to their opposition. despite the complaints about the whistles going away the number of penalites to the opposition stayed pretty standard. since then I’ve suspected that the refs are less likely to call against a playoff team in a game against non-playoff competition.

Thanks, those are very good observations.

One of the articles I linked to mentions teams getting more calls in their favour when they are playing from behind. Interesting that you saw the opposite effect from the perspective of playing from behind in the overall standings.

I’m not naive enough to believe that referees aren’t susceptible to bias in one form or another. They work a lot of games and we’re not entirely privy to their instructions from the league and NHLOA.

I am trying to avoid making this about the officials themselves, rather my goal is to provide some empirical evidence and see what whether our eyes are really matching what is happening on the ice.

Snowman

Why wouldn’t Barrie wait and let the Avs take him to arbitration? As I understand it if he takes them to arbitration the Avs get to determine term length of 1 or 2 years, if Avs take him to arbitration he gets to choose term length of 1 or 2 years…

If he really wants out of Colorado wouldn’t it make more sense to let the Avs take him to arbitration and then only accept a 1 year deal?

admiralmark

RexLibris: Anyone else read this as “filed for legal separation”?

Hopefully he uses the Oilers as his rebound relationship.

dessert1111

jonrmcleod:
Brennan Klak @nhlupdate
#NJDevils sign Luke Gazdic to a one-year deal. One year, two-way, 700K at the NHL level.

I’d bet all day this is a move to make Hall feel more comfortable there, and it’s probably not a bad idea all things considered.

RexLibris

RPG:
Adrian Dater ‏@adater26s27 seconds ago
Sources tell Bleacher Report that Tyson Barrie has officially filed for arbitration

Anyone else read this as “filed for legal separation”?

RexLibris

khildahl:
RexLibris,

Good read.

You may be interested in scoutingtherefs.com, if you’re not already aware of it.

I have checked it out. Interesting site and I’m glad someone is doing this work. Refs are, for better or worse, a third “team” on the ice and their impact needs to be noted (I don’t mean this in an accusing sense).

Jethro Tull

J. Schultz to the Ducks…….Jeff that is.

RPG

Adrian Dater ‏@adater 26s27 seconds ago
Sources tell Bleacher Report that Tyson Barrie has officially filed for arbitration

kb

any word on barrie?

RPG

Adam Oates on the Jason Gregor show talking about Larsson. Very good radio!

GCW_69

Because there is nothing as fun as healthy debate, let’s toss this one out there:

If you look at the last two seasons, Hall had a less than 10% change in his points per 60, so as much as we want to blame injuries for a bad year 2 years ago, his results last season were in the same range offensively (10% is within the normal variation from year to year). Obviously points per 60 removes noise of games played.

So, over the last 2 years, for forwards that have played at least 80 games, Hall ranks 57th in forwards and 18th in left wingers.

For the last year, Hall was 42nd in forwards, and 9th overall for LW, greater than 45 games played.

What is that is the new normal for Hall? That’s still very good, but no longer elite. What if Oilers’ management has made that conclusion and has some reasonable grounds to believe that its likely? Does that change the view on the trade?

If we are going to have a reasonable conversation around the trade, do we not need to consider that possibility?

Asking for a friend…

kinger_OIL

Doug McLachlan,

Doug says: “We lost the Hall trade. Period. Full stop.”

– If Larsson plays 23 minutes a game and does better than he did last year (which he should becasue he had the toughest zone starts of any D last year)

– And Hall plays 68 games and scores 26 goals on a defensive first team, where they won’t like his lack of 200 ft game

– Who wins?

You think Hall is amazing because of the non-injury games he played on a bad team when he got cherry minutes and best linemates, and scored a lot when it didn’t matter. Next year, he plays on a D first team, with less gifted offensive players, that will be focused on winning close games.

– Get with the programme: hop on the bus

Hwahl

I dont know If this has been mentioned as I didnt read all comment yet but fellow Sweden and håll of damer Peter Forsberg also used custom a custom boot during the latter half of his career. Eventually his career was also cut short due to the unbearable pain he had while skating.

Peter has said in interviews in Swedish media that things might’ve been different if his feet issues were adressed earlier in his career. I don’t think we should worry too much about Klefbom’s new boot. It should just help him skate more effortlessly

CrazyCoach

haters: Semenko was a great pro, but that game reminded me of today’s NHL. Free flowing skill in abundance.

Really? In today’s NHL where players are so coached in defensive schemes, that the days of 400 goals a season are but a distant memory?

Today’s NHL is a dump and chip game, and the free flow is gone.

OilersFuture

haters: I’m looking at the body of work.
I’m also saying that this teams need of a player with Larssons talents (shot suppresion) out weighed our need for Halls talents. Not taking anything away from Hall mind you. Very good forward. Elite level scoring.
Did we out right win the trade ? No. Not 1 for 1. But I think it’s closer to even than we can fully see right now.
And with Pulijarvi and Lucic added in its mana from heaven.

I think this is a pretty good point. When making trades ‘we’ the fans/media want to know who the winner was. So we compare the two players. The thing is you cannot compare a defenseman to a forward. It’s like comparing the accountant in your company to your top sales guy. Yeah they both are likely to know their ‘numbers’ but they are two separate jobs.

Larsson is not taking Taylor Hall’s job. In all honesty he’s likely taking Justin Schultz’s job & Milan Lucic is taking Taylor Hall’s job.

Is Lucic an upgrade on Taylor Hall? No, and it’s not even close.
Is Larsson an upgrade on Justin Schultz? Yes, and it’s not even close.

I looked into Milan Lucic’s contract and the likelihood that he would be injury prone. I compared him to former power-forwards that finished top 50 in scoring. The production starts to drop off at the age of 34 and 35 by 20%. The production from 28 – 33 is likely to stay the same. I was also suprised at the number of man-games lost from 28 – 33 was so low compared to players during their earlier years.

https://oilersfuture.wordpress.com/2016/07/05/lucic-regression-contract-thoughts/

CrazyCoach

judgedrude: Or maybe these ones to keep up with McD.
Wile E. Coyote’s Acme Skates

Like they changed the coincidental 4 on 4 rule for the Oilers back in the 80’s, look for the league to do something like that for McDavid.

JD_Wry

Jethro Tull: “that McDavid guy. He’ll eat your lunch AND make you do the dishes.”

Fixed.

JD_Wry

JDï™: Tootoo just signed with Chicago

Wait… what?

Jethro Tull

Hahaha! Apparently, Mathews is getting tips from Eichel and Larkin, according to Sportsnet. I’ll bet it’s something along the lines of “that McDavid guy. He’ll eat your lunch.”

Jethro Tull
JD_Wry

Younger Oil: Hall gets one of his room mates back!

And Tootoo just signed with Chicago, leaving #22 for Hall to wear.

Water Fire

If the Avs are going to trade Barrie doesn’t that have to happen today to avoid arbitration and offer sheets?

Younger Oil

jonrmcleod:
Brennan Klak @nhlupdate
#NJDevils sign Luke Gazdic to a one-year deal. One year, two-way, 700K at the NHL level.

Hall gets one of his room mates back!

jonrmcleod

Brennan Klak @nhlupdate
#NJDevils sign Luke Gazdic to a one-year deal. One year, two-way, 700K at the NHL level.

Revolved

Ricki, I agree with you completely that defenders should be evaluated on their defense, but I think that your opinion on Barrie is unjustifiably harsh due to the fact that Colorado was the worst possession team in the league last year.

I don’t have the WOI HDSA numbers, but Corsica.hockey provides something comparable. The top of the list for defenders relative expected goal stats from the last two years looks like this: Name – expected (x)GF/60, xGA/60 and xGF%

OEL – 1.11 – (-0.43) – 14.92
Karlsson – 0.99 – (-0.53) – 14.67
Krug – 0.90 – (-0.31) – 12.09
Green – 0.69 – (-0.48) – 11.24
Suter – 0.74 – (-0.36) – 11.06
Barrie – 0.69 – (-0.37) – 10.89

I will accept that these numbers look better because his team was bad, that he doesn’t play first pair and That he would cost too much, but there seems little evidence that Colorado got their heads kicked in because of him.

northof51

classict:
John Chambers,

It’s a little more like we traded Jamie Benn for a guy who, maybe one day if everything goes right, could become Vlasic.

I see this is going off the rails. Taylor Hall has scored at a similar rate as Jamie Benn but he is not Jamie Benn. And it is obvious that 29 real NHL GMs think Hall has a fractional trade value of Benn.

classict

John Chambers,

It’s a little more like we traded Jamie Benn for a guy who, maybe one day if everything goes right, could become Vlasic.

rickithebear

John Chambers:
Yost is correct.

Effectively we’ve traded Jamie Benn for Marc-Edouard Vlasic.

And I think it could be argued that we needed Vlasic more than we needed Benn at this point. But if you were selecting players in an expansion draft and assigning a value for them, you would take Benn ahead of Vlasic 99% of the time.

Not with our EVP forward group.

it takes a #8 fwd to outscore Vlasic’s def numbers.

Benn breaks even as ascorer with bottom HSCA defence.

Drive the net. Defend the net. a 6 shots HSCA variance.

rickithebear

Doug Mc…..
there are 2 measures in the game!

GF hal top 30 Gf fwd

GA Larsson #1 GA D

Everyone on here lwho sasy we lost the trade only look at the offensive production of the D.
and
Say not enough.

when you get to
the 30th best EVp/60 D man .99
you have gotten to 290 fwds

290 fwds
30 D
9.66667 times as many forwards as D
Wonder who drives the GF?

When I see a EVP D’s totals and his Assists are almost all of it.
It makes me smile.
Cause that d knows he needs to get the puck in the hands the real Gf generators.

I look at an Off Dman with high numbers and I see that as a strike against them cause they are stealing procession away from the real sorer of goals.

The exception are tehDmen with high EVP/60 yet have great HSCA D.
they have not sacrifieced offence for Defence.

theyare the elite distrubuters of the puck.

Transition pass or break out skate to transition to forwards without vacating def position.
See Oscar klefbom:
See Adam Larsson.

Extend Russell

Andy Dufresne,

Semenko was a great pro, but that game reminded me of today’s NHL. Free flowing skill in abundance. I think it would have been addition by subtraction for that game and I wonder about Kassian being the same this year