Stu MacGregor’s second rounds (and third rounds) probably got him fired. After taking over in time for the 2008 draft, MacGregor called out seven names in the second round. Two men can safely be called NHL players, but they are not top 9Fs or top 4Ds at this time. Bob Green got his first chance this year, and we await the results in the years to come:
- 2008: No second round selections (Kevin Lowe) (MacGregor)
- 2009: Anton Lander (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
- 2010: Tyler Pitlick (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
- 2010: Martin Marincin (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
- 2010: Curtis Hamilton (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
- 2011: David Musil (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
- 2012: Mitchell Moroz (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
- 2013: Marco Roy (Craig MacTavish) (MacGregor)
- 2014: No second round selection (Craig MacTavish) (MacGregor)
- 2015: No second round selection (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
- 2016: Tyler Benson (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
I’m hopeful we can have a rational conversation about the Edmonton Oilers in the second round 2008-16. No grand statements on either side, no claims, just an honest assessment of the way things are, the good and bad arrows, and a discussion in regard to useful players coming out of this area of the draft. In order to do this, we absolutely have to agree on some things:
- We can’t judge a draft weeks after it happens.
- We can count arrows, and they are a good indicator.
- We cannot expect all of the picks to succeed, that isn’t reasonable.
- We have come to some kind of conclusion about a line in the sand and agree to it.
That last item was a moving target forever, but Scott Cullen at TSN has the line surrounded. His latest effort is here, and Cullen’s estimates suggest a second-round selection has a 33.8% chance of playing in 100 NHL games. Ironically, the ‘sweet spot’ second round picks since 1990 has been No. 41-45, with a 39% chance of making 100 games. Cullen’s work is here. So, we’re looking for players who have reached 100 NHL games or are trending that way.
2015 SUMMER (NHL GAMES)
- Anton Lander 193
- Martin Marincin 150
- Tyler Pitlick 27
- David Musil 4
- Curtis Hamilton 1
If we are using 100 games as the line between success and failure, the Oilers drafted two successful players. If your line in the sand is higher, you may feel Edmonton has drafted no successful players. Cullen’s measure counts both Lander and Marincin as successful second-round selections.
- “It’s over” arrows: Curtis Hamilton, Marco Roy
- Bad arrows: Mitchell Moroz
- Lukewarm arrows: Tyler Pitlick, David Musil
- Good arrows:
- Successful selections: Anton Lander, Martin Marincin
Not much change year over year, I moved Marincin into the successful selection category. There is some conflict in these rankings—Marco Roy is a more successful AHL player than Mitchell Moroz—but it is not in fact over for Moroz at this time. Trending that way? Yes.
ONE BY ONE
- C Anton Lander: A year ago, I felt this was a successful selection and Lander might end up reaching 300 or more NHL games. After an extremely disappointing NHL season, I am uncertain he will have a roster spot in the fall.
- R Tyler Pitlick: After another injury-plagued season I thought the team would set him free. Instead, Pitlick is back for another season. Although this blog has ranked him up and down and all over the town, the idea that he could be an NHL player has always been a possibility in my estimation. As is the case with so many of the MacGregor picks, offense is the concern.
- D Martin Marincin: I am at the spot with Marincin this year that I was with Lander one year ago. Seems to me MM has his foot in the door now, there are things to like about his Toronto performance.
- L Curtis Hamilton: Posted a solid year in the Czech league and will take his two-way game to SaiPa of the Sm-Liiga in the coming year.
- D David Musil: Oilers did not bring him to the show during a season when blue were dropping like flies—and yet they qualified him. As is the case with Tyler Pitlick, Edmonton had a chance to walk him and chose not to do it. That tells me the club still believes in him on some level. The question is do they believe in him as an NHL option? If I were Musil, I would try to find a way out of the organization and try my luck outside the Leftorium.
- L Mitch Moroz: He now has 19 points in 106 AHL games. Luke Gazdic had 17 in his first 106 AHL games.
- C Marco Roy: Again we have an offensively challenged prospect at the AHL level. The difference here is the offense (42gp, 8-12-20) shows a hint of promise. He does not have an NHL contract with the Oilers, so is a de facto free agent.
The problem in these drafting seasons for Oilers second rounders has been offense. Here are the NHLEs (by draft season) for the group 2008-16:
- Marco Roy 10-12-22
- Tyler Benson 7-14-21
- Tyler Pitlick 11-7-18
- Curtis Hamilton 6-8-14
- Anton Lander 4-6-10
- David Musil 2-7-9
- Mitchell Moroz 5-3-8
- Martin Marincin (no NHLE)
I think (among forwards) you could argue that Roy, Benson and Pitlick were bona fide picks based on offense and what was available at the time of their being selected. Neither defender is an offense-first player, so their slotting on this list is less important.
— Patricia Teter (@Artful_Puck) July 5, 2016
There’s a chance this guy plays more NHL games than most of the men Edmonton took in the second round since 2008. Sail on Josh Winquist, we wish you well.