UP AROUND THE BEND

by Lowetide

Jordan Oesterle makes a lot of sense to me as the 7D entering training camp. If we can agree that Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Andrej Sekera, Mark Fayne, Brandon Davidson and Darnell Nurse are the top 6D, I think Jordan Oesterle could be a very useful 7.

OILERS 15-16 BLUE (SORTED BY CORSI REL VIA BTN)

OILERS 15-16 BLUE STATS

This is BTN and Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com information (trending away from War-on-Ice) from this past season. I prefer Corsi Rel, so they are sorted in that manner, I know there are other metrics out there and hopefully we will see the G Money metrics soon (they look very good). Oesterle played in 17 games, that isn’t enough to project him into the lineup next season as a regular. Still, it looks from here as though he might be able to handle the third pairing if Edmonton went that route. Oesterle has terrific speed and has adapted very quickly to the pro game.

 wells capture 2

DYLAN WELLS AT NO. 123

  • The Black Book: No. 97. Despite struggling quite a bit this season, Dylan Wells is still an intriguing goaltending prospect for the 2016 NHL draft. A big bodied, goaltender who moves well in his crease, Wells possesses good size and mobility between the pipes. A goaltender who is at his best when he gets to the top of his crease and challenges shooters, Wells does an excellent job of battling through screens and tracking pucks in traffic. Dylan plays his angles well, however when he is struggling rebound control is one of his issues.
  • Future Considerations: No. 111. Wells is an intermediate-sized goalie who moves fluidly in the crease. He is a kid who has had an up and down season so far. He tracks the puck very well, something that is enhanced with his excellent positioning and his ability to follow and anticipate the play in front of him. Wells is very calm and does not show any signs of panic or distress, even when facing heavy traffic.
  • Brock Otten, OHL Prospects. Like most top picks these days, Wells brings both size and athleticism to the crease and he’s worked hard to improve his rebound control and positioning. He can still overcommit when you get him moving side to side, but he’s a really solid goaltending prospect and I think that by season’s end, he’ll be the starter in Peterborough.

CODY CECI

  • Don Brennan, Ottawa Sun (re: Cody Ceci): Discussions on a new deal for the 22-year-old defenceman recently came to a halt, fuelling speculation that Senators GM Pierre Dorion and Ceci’s agent, J.P. Barry, are a considerable distance apart in their attempts at coming to an agreement. Source

Ceci is an interesting player. He is a RHD, has some offense (0.98 5×5 per 60) but had a terrible possession number (44.5 Corsi for 5×5 percentage) during a difficult year. He was a solid defender before last season, suspect he is a reasonable bet moving forward. A name to add to the pile.

montour williams

Brandon Montour photo by Mark Williams

POTENTIAL OILERS

  1. LD Hampus Lindholm, Anaheim Ducks. The impossible dream.
  2. LD Cam Fowler, Anaheim Ducks.  The possible dream.
  3. RD Tyson Barrie, Colorado Avalanche. Sounds like he is staying. Next year?
  4. RD Matt Dumba, Minnesota Wild. Talented, but has chaos in his game.
  5. RD Cody Ceci, Ottawa Senators. Mobile defender, tough season in 15-16.
  6. RD Jacob Trouba, Winnipeg Jets. Strange year for a talented young player.
  7. RD David Savard, Columbus Blue Jackets. Range of skills.
  8. RD Ryan Murphy, Carolina Hurricanes. Some chaos, but good speed and puck-moving ability.
  9. RD Brandon Montour, Anaheim Ducks. This could be a special player.
  10. RD Colin Miller, Boston Bruins. With the other Miller signing, maybe he is available.
  11. RD Jakub Nakladal, Calgary Flames. Intriguing player.
  12. RD Ryan Sproul, Detroit Red Wings. Puck-moving defender in the AHL.
  13. RD Dennis Wideman, Calgary Flames. A year removed from a fantastic offensive season.
  14. RD Eric Gryba, Edmonton Oilers. Edmonton needs right D.
  15. LD Kris Russell, Dallas Stars. His name was mentioned early in regard to Edmonton.
  16. RD James Wisniewski, Carolina Hurricanes. If healthy, depending on price, interesting name.
  17. RD Dan Boyle, New York Rangers. Retiring, but he is the player they are looking for—early, not late in his career.

We should begin to discuss the possibility of going through this season without the puck mover on the back line. Jordan Oesterle could benefit in a big way if Chiarelli doesn’t make any other moves this summer.

TODD MCLELLAN AND THE SUMMER

By the middle of his first season in Edmonton, we knew Todd McLellan was working hard to adapt his Oilers talent to the style of game he was successful with in San Jose. Here is what I wrote on this blog February 24:

  • We are over 60 games into the NHL season and I think we can reach a major conclusion: Todd McLellan is going to play the style he prefers, and by next season we should see a team that represents his style. The Oilers, as they are currently compiled, are not an ideal McLellan team—and he hasn’t altered his ‘place and chase’ style—to suit this team’s skills—as much as we might have hoped in year one. I think this means an airlift of role players prepared to place and chase, forecheck, cover and battle—at the cost of skill. Source

Airlift was perhaps hyperbole, but this blog has been known for it in the past and will probably use it again. One thing that is true: The addition of Milan Lucic and Adam Larsson have this team going in a specific direction. Back last summer, when McLellan was announced, I reached out to the excellent blog Fear the Fin (and Derek) for some direction on the coach and his style:

  • Derek/Fear the Fin: “For most of his (San Jose) tenure it was pretty much a puck mover with a stay-at-home type on the blue line. We saw a bit of a shift the last few years as the Sharks acquired more puck-moving guys. For the most part I think he’s going to look to shelter more offensive types with a defensive defenseman.” Source

(BEFORE OILERS) MCLELLAN READING

The additions of Adam Larsson and Milan Lucic, after year one in Edmonton, inform us about what Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan feel is needed for the Oilers to move forward.

  • McLellan: “It’s insanity if you keep banging your head against a wall. We needed to shore up a hole. I know there is a lot of talk about (losing) that dynamic offensive guy, but we also needed a good shutdown 20-minute-a-night guy, and we believe we have that in Larsson. We think we’ve added a No.1 and a No. 2. We’ve added (Oscar) Klefbom and Larsson to our lineup. We didn’t have Klefbom very long and Larsson’s coming in, so that’s a significant change. If they can stay healthy and play at a high level, we think we’ll be better back there.” Source

PROJECTED OILERS LINEUP 2016-17

PROJECTED LINEUP JULY 8

There are issues with this roster—Nail Yakupov is an adventure without the puck—but there is also logic and reason included:

  • Nail Yakupov was highly successful (2-7-9 in 205 minutes 5×5, 2.63/60) including a Corsi for 5×5 percentage of 51.9.
  • Jordan Eberle was also successful with McDavid 8-8-16 in 364 minutes 5×5, 2.64/60) including a Corsi for 5×5 percentage of 52.2.
  • Defensive pairings place a tremendous amount of pressure on that top pairing, but the duos are following McLellan’s puck mover/defensive defender scenario and Klefbom—Larsson is easily the most talented duo.
  • I am still a little unsettled on the goaling. Anyone else feel that way?

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun show this morning, TSN 1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. A rare chance to talk to Steve in-studio for an entire hour. Lansky worked in Edmonton during the 1980s on HNIC and ITV broadcasts, and is a treasure when it comes to sports yesterday and today. Hour 1 will be with Steve, you are welcome to send in questions and comments.
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. We haven’t spoken to Paul since the Hall deal, so this should be fun! Also, Euro 2016 (plenty of Portugal verbal) and CFL.
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Matt will tee up his show tonight (Montorio Homes Green and Gold Kickoff and Post-Game shows) and preview the Eskimos-Roughriders game.

10-1260 on text, @Lowetide on twitter.

123 comments
0

You may also like

0 0 votes
Article Rating
123 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Kiltymcbagpipes

Late to the party no one likely going to read this anyways but a Oesterle-Davidson bottom pair would be ok in my mind with Nurse starting in AHL IF:

– We have acquired a Tyson Barrie type and Fayne is moved out (in which Gryba would be re-signed)

You cannot go into next year with Nurse, Oesterle or Fayne anywhere but 6th on the depth chart if u expect to make progress and in Fayne’s case that would mean him being shipped out (for Pulkkinen?) and Gryba likely back in. Also, Nurse and Oesterle should not both be in NHL at same time. Davidson as a #5 has the unique ability to fill in for ANY of the Top 4 guys on either side if one gets hurt (although everyone moves up one line in that case would make more sense)

This would be realistic best case scenario:

Klef-Larsson
Sekera-Barrie
Nurse-Davidson
Gryba

or

Klef-Larsson
Sekera-Barrie
Oesterle-Davidson
Gryba

Although I clearly like the first option better. That’s a pretty solid mix and has 3 RH shots. Now if we can just get Savard, i mean Barrie……

Pouzar

Bank Shot:
It’s crazy how 3-4 years later all these young hot shots are signing deals and Eberle and RNHs contracts still don’t look cheap in comparison.

huh?

Jethro Tull

HeatTreaterJoe: Fire MacT and Howson!!

(you’re welcome everyone)

You forgot Lowe.

HT Joe

Andy Dufresne:
I work for the OIlers. I come here to report back to team management on ways to better the team.

Fire MacT and Howson!!

(you’re welcome everyone)

Andy Dufresne

I work for the OIlers. I come here to report back to team management on ways to better the team.

DocFan:
Wow you guys have a lot of free time. Does no one here work??!?

Jethro Tull

Lowetide: Lol. MANY of the people who post here are very successful, so probably work like mad between posts.

If you count being able to find my arse with both hands as successful, then yes, I’m successful.

Woodguy

spoiler: join

Mostly shot distance.

Madison Square recorders consistently record shorter distances on shots than reality,

Other counts misses as blocks and other erooms and through much work most the obvious rink biases have been sussed out and corrected for.

A famous example is a shot in MSG being recorded as have been taken from the stands.

spoiler

Woodguy: Rink effects aren’t minimal for some teams (NYR and NYI in particular)

What rink effects are being taken into account?

Andy Dufresne

I hear you. The comment about the other 29 GM’s is inference based on all the Yak trade speculation, the opinions in the analyst community on expected return, the idea that Yak seemed unhappy near the trade deadline and the talk that he asked for a trade, and the fact that a suitable trade partner was not found. The idea that Chia seems to be focused on players in the bottom six that can contribute (work within the system) and cost less than 2.5 million. He’s not a Chia type, Chia did not draft him so whether he stays or goes is not a big reflection on Chia himself, with Eberle and now JP clearly ahead of him on the roster depth chart, the idea that Chia is in full bore win now mode, all lead me to believe Yak won’t be here in October. I do concede that it is only my opinion and based only on circumstantial reasoning.
If Yak is still here in October I will be very surprised based mainly on my perception of what Chia is doing at this point in time.

Drew: You can state your opinion and I can accept that as a reasonable one. Your assertion of what all the GM’s are thinking is not reasonable.

Yak still may have value to the organization, we don’t know what it is but we can make guesses. I would suggest that we try to reclaim this asset and then move it or keep if the reclamation is successful.

“Knowing” what that will be today is also not reasonable, I think there is still a bet to be made there. There are changes in the Oilers room being made, this may be enough for the “Dan Cleary” moment to occur.

We have already sold low on one valuable asset, this asset is not in that class but I prefer to not flush it for nothing.

DocFan

Wow you guys have a lot of free time. Does no one here work??!?

Andy Dufresne

I recall now that you posted a while back that you were sick of the hate memes/kidding. I forgot. Sorry about that. Won’t happen again. And thank you for your measured response. Your patience is appreciated.

Lowetide: Absolutely untrue, of course. I have written previously about Reinhart v. Nurse, including here points 12 and 13.

https://lowetide.ca/2016/06/14/re-15-16-griffin-reinhart-to-love-somebody/

You may be referring to the top of this article that says ‘if we can agree’ and that is the roster I believe Edmonton will run with. I am tiring of this reinhart hate discussion, and will begin deleting these kinds of posts.

Woodguy

Bank Shot:
It’s crazy how 3-4 years later all these young hot shots are signing deals and Eberle and RNHs contracts still don’t look cheap in comparison.

Back then the cap was expected to be ~80MM by now.

Newer contracts have the flat-ish cap in mind.

fifthcartel

John Chambers,

Agreed, or Colborne, but they did strangely enough. I doubt Barrie is there long.

Woodguy

rickithebear:
Woodguy:
the Igf% is amazing
except for eliminating the Scoring players affect.

the puck path is realeased.

first question.
1.was it shot into the goalie closed hole or open hole.

the shooter exclusion cause all shots to be assumed scorable.

meaning a whole data set of 0% chance shots is used.

The distance and Shooter variance precludes the question of scorable or not scoreable.

In an attempt to not bias.
He biased his study!

The curves off allan langes 2006 shot quality curves give a clear distance indication of shot success.
precluding the concern over open or closed shots.

it is a shame he has deleted the most impost graph related to hockey ever.

Over a concern of minimal affect rink bias.

Then you get the bastardization of the pure data.
with concern over bias destroying the true value of shot data sets.

Rink effects aren’t minimal for some teams (NYR and NYI in particular)

The other data you discuss isn’t on the game sheets.

I can only deal with that data until the other data is collected and publicly available

John Chambers

fifthcartel:
So, Avs have ~7m cap space left to sign Barrie (~5m) and Grigorenko (~1m), if they’re a budget team like we keep hearing about I doubt they’ll go that close to the cap.

Not sure why they felt the need to add Tyutin or 15 other left-handed defensemen on July 1st.

fifthcartel

So, Avs have ~7m cap space left to sign Barrie (~5m) and Grigorenko (~1m), if they’re a budget team like we keep hearing about I doubt they’ll go that close to the cap.

Bank Shot

It’s crazy how 3-4 years later all these young hot shots are signing deals and Eberle and RNHs contracts still don’t look cheap in comparison.

PeOiler

“Airlift was perhaps hyperbole, but this blog has been known for it in the past and will probably use it again.”

‘Probably Hyperbole’ would be a pretty fantastic band name.

rickithebear

Woodguy:
the Igf% is amazing
except for eliminating the Scoring players affect.

the puck path is realeased.

first question.
1.was it shot into the goalie closed hole or open hole.

the shooter exclusion cause all shots to be assumed scorable.

meaning a whole data set of 0% chance shots is used.

The distance and Shooter variance precludes the question of scorable or not scoreable.

In an attempt to not bias.
He biased his study!

The curves off allan langes 2006 shot quality curves give a clear distance indication of shot success.
precluding the concern over open or closed shots.

it is a shame he has deleted the most impost graph related to hockey ever.

Over a concern of minimal affect rink bias.

Then you get the bastardization of the pure data.
with concern over bias destroying the true value of shot data sets.

jake70

Drew: good for him!!!

sarcasm? or are you happy for the guy?

Woodguy

Ca$h-McMoney!:
Woodguy,

Why no Oesterle in the second group?

Bah!

Different TOI filter.

Sorry

Woodguy

@mannyelk

@Woodguy55 Hey, unless I’m misunderstanding your request you can do with with the WOWY tool on Corsica. https://t.co/9dsvvBm5bM

Manny tweeted at me that his site DOES have a WOWY tool and it can be found in the “Combos” section.

Gonna have to play around with that when I get to a desktop.

Very cool.

stush18

Lowetide: I think it is impossible to know which player will be more effective, or have a longer career. I believe Nurse is preferred by the organization, although that could be me reading things into the situation that do not exist.

Well that’s what we are here to do though, suss out which players have more effective careers, who’s value is more or less than their perceived value, who is bringing value to the table.

I think nurse has more value around the league, and after what lucic said about praising nurse after they fought, I think the oilers value him more so as well.

I would trade nurse if a more established dman or centre (RH) were availible. The difference between Reinhart and nurse is negligible, and likely always will be.

Also I really think musil brings a very nasty edge to his game that can replace nurse or grybas physicality.

Nurse for lazar anyone?

rickithebear

WG:

29 Shots:
18.5 shots are Low success.
10.5 are high success.
a total of

but teams shots/gm can vary from 24.5 to 33.5shots 9 shots.
3 LSC shots 18.5 SHots +/- 1.5 shots
A full range variance of 3/20 = 15.0 % on shots that succeed 0.5 to 8.5% of time
in the LSC the blocking ; forcing of a is largely influenced by Forwards.

6 HSC shots 10.5 shots +/- 3.0 shots
A full range variance of 6/13.5 = 44.4% on shots that succeed 8.5 to 20%
In the HSC area Blocking and forced misse are largely Dmen. by the physical size of HSCA.

By avg Shooting % and shot volumes for each area.
LSC:
.045 X 20.0 = .9000 GA
.15 X .9000 = .135 GA
A .125 GA/60 reduction can be created by shot variance in LSC area.

HSCA:
.1425 X 13.5 = 1.92375
.444 X 1.92375 = .854 GA
A .854 GA reduction can be created by shot variance in LSCA area.

.854 + .135 = .989 .854/.989 = 86.4%

THe reduction of SA by area shows HSC shot reduction affects GA by 86.4% in HSCA largely defended by Dmen.

Fenwick takes us to Misses and shots
but
misses are an influence factor.

We get to a point called Corsi:
the entry of the HSCA is largely influenced by the D .
so they control the variance in HSC Shot count.

The release of a puck Corsi to Shot can be easily analyzed.
Blocks
12 fwds 5.52 BLKS/60
6 Dmen 8.7 BLKS/60

miss
12 fwds 7.8 misses/60
6 dmen 3.8 misses/60

It is at this point that the
Dmen average ireduction on corsi 8.7BLK + 7.8 misses = 16.5/60
Fwds avg reduction on corsi 5.5 BL + 3.8 misses 9.3/60

So we have a clear idea of who keeps things to perimeter and who reduces Corsi.

what we do not know is how we get to Corsi.

the analysis of corsi to shot does not have complex probability.

It has been relased at a point which was alreay defensively influenced for Misses and Location
the path can be blocked or deflected

1. Corsi
LSC/HSC

2. Corsi by who
Fwd/ Dman

3. BLOCKS
FWD/Dman

4. Misses
FWD/DMan

5. Shots
Open/Closed

2 X 2 X 2 X 2 X 2 = 32

Getting Retrieval to cosi is a different matter.

1.Retrieval from
Giveaway
DZ/ NZ/OZ LSC or HSC 4
Face off
OZ/DZ/NZ 3
Block 1
Miss 1
Rebound 1
10 groups

2.Retrieval By who
FWD/Dman 2

3. Puck advancement
DZ to NZ to OZ to LSC to HSC 4

4. how was puck advanced
Skating/passed 2

5. Who advanced
Fwd/Dman 2

10 X 2 X 4 X 2 X 2 = 320

we got a whole collection situational factors to understand how and who is responsible for the realease of the puck.

I ignore retrieval to corsi.
Cause corsi tells us nothing that lead up to that.

It is the moment in time were pocession has been converted into the probability of the desired outcome.

Ca$h-McMoney!

Woodguy,

Why no Oesterle in the second group?

Woodguy

Oiler Dmen RelxGF% (non-adjusted)

Player Rel.xGF%
BRANDON.DAVIDSON 6.11
OSCAR.KLEFBOM 4.01
ANDREJ.SEKERA 1.99
ERIC.GRYBA 1.09
JORDAN.OESTERLE 0.05
JUSTIN.SCHULTZ -0.95
GRIFFIN.REINHART -1.59
MARK.FAYNE -2.3
DARNELL.NURSE -6.55

Now adjusted for Score, ZS, and venue:

Player Rel.xGF%

BRANDON.DAVIDSON 5.38
ANDREJ.SEKERA 3.43
OSCAR.KLEFBOM 2.92
ERIC.GRYBA -0.37
MARK.FAYNE -1.13
JUSTIN.SCHULTZ -1.14
GRIFFIN.REINHART -2.88
DARNELL.NURSE -6.01

I tweeted out a different list yesterday, it was an error

Mariusz Czerkawski

Woodguy,

Thanks for the sneak peak on this, very intriguing.

When you discuss usable interface, are you and G looking to develop a website ala WOI, Corsica etc?

I would love to see a website such as these that either has a usable mobile interface or a companion app. I often use my phone to pull some of this data while watching games and would absolutely pay for an app that allowed me to do so easily.

kinger_OIL

Woodguy: Zone starts don’t matter as much as we thought a few years ago, but they still matter if they are significant.

Larsson is beyond significant and are extreme.

Here is very good reading on why True zone starts matter, but faceoffs aren’t true zone starts.

Part 1: https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/15/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-i-maybe-not-as-much-as-we-thought/

Part 2: https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/20/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-part-ii-a-lot-on-their-own-not-that-much-in-aggregate/

– Yeah good read for those who aren’t current on this: so we agree!!!

McSorley33

Woodguy,

Great work here.

X 10000 on Barrie and playing with Sek

Drew

JimmyV1965:
Hey guys. What happens to Yak’s cap hit if he goes to the KHL? That to me seems to be the logical choice right now. He can reclaim his game there and hopefully his cap hit goes away.

i don’t see the KHL as a place where he can develop an NHL game. a different system/city/usage in the NHL would be my bet.

Truth

If Yak gets a fair shot with McDavid as his C and has success does he rescind his trade request, a la Drouin?

If Yak gets a fair shot with McDavid as his C and his play warrants he gets dropped to 3rd or 4th highest minutes as a RW does he rescind his trade request?

JimmyV1965

Hey guys. What happens to Yak’s cap hit if he goes to the KHL? That to me seems to be the logical choice right now. He can reclaim his game there and hopefully his cap hit goes away.

Zack

Todd Macallan:
I mentioned Ceci a few days ago here and continue to think he is a very strong option. At the time I suggested:

Oilers 1st 2017 + Yak + Griff + Fayne @ 50% retained for Ceci + Lazar.

Think this represents reasonable value for both teams. Unfortunately it sounds like Eklund has mentioned Ceci to Edm so it sounds like this is no longer an option.

I would do this deal but more so for Curtis Lazar. To be honest I can’t see Ottawa giving him up unless it’s for something equal caliber coming back their way. The 2017 1st might be a little much though, it’s tough to say. The depth chart would sure look good though…

Lucic-McDavid-Eberle
Pouliot-RNH-Draisaitl
Maroon-Lazar-JP
Hendricks-Testu-Kassian/Iiro

Klefbom-Larsson
Sekera-Ceci
Nurse-Davidson

Can we offer sheet Lindholm though? Is that a possibility?

Klefbom-Larsson
Sekera-Lindholm
Nurse-Davidson/Fayne

Look like a much better defense. I would throw a strong offer for Curtis Lazar and go from here.

stush18

Lowetide: Absolutely untrue, of course. I have written previously about Reinhart v. Nurse, including here points 12 and 13.

https://lowetide.ca/2016/06/14/re-15-16-griffin-reinhart-to-love-somebody/

You may be referring to the top of this article that says ‘if we can agree’ and that is the roster I believe Edmonton will run with. I am tiring of this reinhart hate discussion, and will begin deleting these kinds of posts.

Ya I don’t think Reinhart or nurse are better prospects really. They are both cut from the same mold (defensive two way). I think both of there ceilings are #3 shut down types.

Nurse will be Stevens/Blake, Reinhart lidstrom (with their styles of defending)

The stats show the nurse struggled more than Reinhart in tougher comp with better players. Reinhart played less worse with easier comp but lesser partners.

Woodguy

Yeti: So, when does that (re)become a thing? We miss his Gmoneyness.

Can’t say if/when G will post here again, I didn’t know that he quit or why.

Hoping to have the QoC metric finished this month.

Database is close to done if not done.

All the work has been done by G.

Usable interface would be next, but we’ll start pulling data as soon as we can.

dessert1111

I think you’ve nailed the ideal deployment of the roster as it stands today, LT.

JD_Wry

Yeti: So, when does that (re)become a thing? We miss his Gmoneyness.

Look into a mirror and repeat “DFF” three times. Just be careful with your enunciation…

Woodguy

All,

Emanuel Perry created corsica.hockey his twitter handle is @mannyelk

Here’s where he explains his expected goals metric: http://www.corsica.hockey/blog/2016/03/03/shot-quality-and-expected-goals-part-i/

Truth

godot10:
Nurse’s “weakness” is NHL decision-making.He can’t learn that in the AHL where he can use his overwhelming raw talent to make up for poor decisions.

Reinhart “weakness” is slow decision-making (i.e. a lack of assertiveness).So the AHL with increasingly long stints in the NHL on callups is the correct development path for him.

To get from A to B, one player often requires a disparate development path from another.

Interesting, but I disagree regarding Nurse. He has the NHL speed and strength, and he does lack the NHL decision making, but the NHL eats up the weak decision making D regardless of their athleticism. It is typical to hear the AHL callups comment on the NHL game being faster and more structured than the AHL. A well structured team easily feasts on the likes of Nurse because he’s overwhelmed with the entire opposition knowing where to be at all times and all passes and plays being on the money. In the AHL he would gain experience in a better level of hockey than Junior, but still not at the elite level of the NHL.

So Nurse may be able to escape some of his bad decisions in the AHL and get away without a GA, but as we’ve seen in the NHL the puck ends up in the back of the net when he makes a poor decision. That’s bad for the Oilers and really bad for Nurse’s confidence. Let him play in the AHL and hopefully he gets away with most of his bad decisions. He will always know it was a bad decision whether it costs the team a goal or not at whichever level, might as well be where it is “less” important.

I’ve also always felt that poor confidence can wreck a career. Give the prospects a chance to succeed if and when they do make the NHL. Sending them to the NHL to learn the game is looking for trouble.

jonrmcleod

PDO: These actions don’t really sync together at all. If Righty/Lefty is something you believe is important, why were only LHD added last summer?
Just food for thought.
Unless something drastically changed his mind on that over the last year of course.

Maybe Chiarelli reads Lowetide?

JimmyV1965

godot10:
Nurse’s “weakness” is NHL decision-making.He can’t learn that in the AHL where he can use his overwhelming raw talent to make up for poor decisions.

Reinhart “weakness” is slow decision-making (i.e. a lack of assertiveness).So the AHL with increasingly long stints in the NHL on callups is the correct development path for him.

To get from A to B, one player often requires a disparate development path from another.

Totally makes sense. Well said.

rickithebear

The continuous zonal charting makes it easy to have very specific play actions grouped for a player:
when they get the trackable puck
and
trackers on the players.
Currently being tested.

We will see a clear path change in what data we can analyze..
We will get any moment in time look.
Player positions.
puck path
results.

Todd Macallan

I mentioned Ceci a few days ago here and continue to think he is a very strong option. At the time I suggested:

Oilers 1st 2017 + Yak + Griff + Fayne @ 50% retained for Ceci + Lazar.

Think this represents reasonable value for both teams. Unfortunately it sounds like Eklund has mentioned Ceci to Edm so it sounds like this is no longer an option.

Yeti

Woodguy: Basically yes, Gmoney could answer better.

So, when does that (re)become a thing? We miss his Gmoneyness.

Woodguy

rickithebear,

you are completely wrong. FO correlate to ZStarts 100%
The only way the game can start in any zone is thru faceoffs.

You’re missing the point.

Every face off is not a True Zone Start.

If a player is on the ice for a netural zone start then the puck goes in their end and the goalie covers it, and another face off happens with that player still on the ice, its not a True Zone Start.

The coach didn’t send him out for that FO, but he “earned” it.

True Zone Start are when shifts start with a FO.

Read the material before disagreeing with it.

Also,

Read about ZS adjustments here: http://www.corsica.hockey/blog/2016/06/19/adjustments-explained/

Key part:

A face-off can occur in any of three zones – offensive, defensive or neutral. For each event of interest, we consider the zone in which the last face-off occurred in addition to the score state. As a final property, the recency of the last face-off is taken into account. This serves to avoid generalizing entire shifts by where they began. This implicitly solves the issue of on-the-fly deployment. That is, players on the ice for an offensive zone draw receive a much different (greater) advantage than those coming on 45 seconds thereafter. The face-off start parameter is divided into two subcategories: the first 20 seconds and the remainder of the sequence. This cut-off is chosen to reflect the fact that almost all of the advantage related to a zone start is contained within the first 20 seconds of play. The seven score states are then multiplied by six possible face-off start subcategories, giving a total of 84 coefficients for both teams:

Then see his table of 84 ZS adjustments.

Woodguy

till_horcoff_is_coach:
WG: this is great. One question I have when looking at the year over year metrics is how repeatable are the results?. IOW, is this a skill our just a byproduct of playing conditions?

G can answer this, but I’m pretty sure his DFF correlated with itself within a year (odd/even games type thing) and year to year.

The best thing about these new goal/dff metrics is that they correlate to future and actual goals better.

Corsi has always been a goal proxy because the shot attempt data accumulates into more meaningful piles of data faster than goals and with way less variance.

Now we have metrics built upon corsi that work even better.

CF% still useful as its common to find for WOWY, but once we have DFF data base up and running with an usable interface I can’t see using corsi again.

We’re moving from a bread knife to a scalpel.

When we get puck and player movement data we’ll move to a laser.

Then of course, sharks with frickin lasers on their heads.

rickithebear

Woodguy:

you are completely wrong. FO correlate to ZStarts 100%

The only way the game can start in any zone is thru faceoffs.

There is a clear differentiation between Zone starts
and
what I have talked about for the last 8 years
Active Play.

Active phase play is dictated by the attacking team.

A attacking team loses pocession in the D Zone.
The opposition recovers the puck in their D zone.
That retrieval is PHase 1 DZR

they try to attack the oppositions Ozone.
Pocession into NZ Phase 1 NZA Giveaway.
and a pocession loss
giving opposition PHase 1 NZR

Pocession into OZ: Phase 1 OZ access.

Pocession into OZ and LSC corsi with result designation blocked; miss; shot; Goal

So a Dzone pocession going to To a OZ HSCA Corsi resulting in a rebounded save would be.

Phase 1 DZR to OZ HSC shot saved Rebound

the attacking team retrieves it and Shoots from the HSCA Area and scores.
Phase 2 OZ HSCA R to OZ HSC SHOT goal
the retrieval off off a shot with no opposition procession gain becomes 2nd phase and so on.

Attacking teams strips a player of the puck it is passed to Player in HSCA and goal occurs.

PH1 FWD 93 OZ LSCA R Pass to FWD 14 OZ HSCA Goal

you want to really track procession!

you can generate phase continuious pocession charts for the whole game while tracking Players bench change as part of the charting.