UP AROUND THE BEND

by Lowetide

Jordan Oesterle makes a lot of sense to me as the 7D entering training camp. If we can agree that Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Andrej Sekera, Mark Fayne, Brandon Davidson and Darnell Nurse are the top 6D, I think Jordan Oesterle could be a very useful 7.

OILERS 15-16 BLUE (SORTED BY CORSI REL VIA BTN)

OILERS 15-16 BLUE STATS

This is BTN and Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com information (trending away from War-on-Ice) from this past season. I prefer Corsi Rel, so they are sorted in that manner, I know there are other metrics out there and hopefully we will see the G Money metrics soon (they look very good). Oesterle played in 17 games, that isn’t enough to project him into the lineup next season as a regular. Still, it looks from here as though he might be able to handle the third pairing if Edmonton went that route. Oesterle has terrific speed and has adapted very quickly to the pro game.

 wells capture 2

DYLAN WELLS AT NO. 123

  • The Black Book: No. 97. Despite struggling quite a bit this season, Dylan Wells is still an intriguing goaltending prospect for the 2016 NHL draft. A big bodied, goaltender who moves well in his crease, Wells possesses good size and mobility between the pipes. A goaltender who is at his best when he gets to the top of his crease and challenges shooters, Wells does an excellent job of battling through screens and tracking pucks in traffic. Dylan plays his angles well, however when he is struggling rebound control is one of his issues.
  • Future Considerations: No. 111. Wells is an intermediate-sized goalie who moves fluidly in the crease. He is a kid who has had an up and down season so far. He tracks the puck very well, something that is enhanced with his excellent positioning and his ability to follow and anticipate the play in front of him. Wells is very calm and does not show any signs of panic or distress, even when facing heavy traffic.
  • Brock Otten, OHL Prospects. Like most top picks these days, Wells brings both size and athleticism to the crease and he’s worked hard to improve his rebound control and positioning. He can still overcommit when you get him moving side to side, but he’s a really solid goaltending prospect and I think that by season’s end, he’ll be the starter in Peterborough.

CODY CECI

  • Don Brennan, Ottawa Sun (re: Cody Ceci): Discussions on a new deal for the 22-year-old defenceman recently came to a halt, fuelling speculation that Senators GM Pierre Dorion and Ceci’s agent, J.P. Barry, are a considerable distance apart in their attempts at coming to an agreement. Source

Ceci is an interesting player. He is a RHD, has some offense (0.98 5×5 per 60) but had a terrible possession number (44.5 Corsi for 5×5 percentage) during a difficult year. He was a solid defender before last season, suspect he is a reasonable bet moving forward. A name to add to the pile.

montour williams

Brandon Montour photo by Mark Williams

POTENTIAL OILERS

  1. LD Hampus Lindholm, Anaheim Ducks. The impossible dream.
  2. LD Cam Fowler, Anaheim Ducks.  The possible dream.
  3. RD Tyson Barrie, Colorado Avalanche. Sounds like he is staying. Next year?
  4. RD Matt Dumba, Minnesota Wild. Talented, but has chaos in his game.
  5. RD Cody Ceci, Ottawa Senators. Mobile defender, tough season in 15-16.
  6. RD Jacob Trouba, Winnipeg Jets. Strange year for a talented young player.
  7. RD David Savard, Columbus Blue Jackets. Range of skills.
  8. RD Ryan Murphy, Carolina Hurricanes. Some chaos, but good speed and puck-moving ability.
  9. RD Brandon Montour, Anaheim Ducks. This could be a special player.
  10. RD Colin Miller, Boston Bruins. With the other Miller signing, maybe he is available.
  11. RD Jakub Nakladal, Calgary Flames. Intriguing player.
  12. RD Ryan Sproul, Detroit Red Wings. Puck-moving defender in the AHL.
  13. RD Dennis Wideman, Calgary Flames. A year removed from a fantastic offensive season.
  14. RD Eric Gryba, Edmonton Oilers. Edmonton needs right D.
  15. LD Kris Russell, Dallas Stars. His name was mentioned early in regard to Edmonton.
  16. RD James Wisniewski, Carolina Hurricanes. If healthy, depending on price, interesting name.
  17. RD Dan Boyle, New York Rangers. Retiring, but he is the player they are looking for—early, not late in his career.

We should begin to discuss the possibility of going through this season without the puck mover on the back line. Jordan Oesterle could benefit in a big way if Chiarelli doesn’t make any other moves this summer.

TODD MCLELLAN AND THE SUMMER

By the middle of his first season in Edmonton, we knew Todd McLellan was working hard to adapt his Oilers talent to the style of game he was successful with in San Jose. Here is what I wrote on this blog February 24:

  • We are over 60 games into the NHL season and I think we can reach a major conclusion: Todd McLellan is going to play the style he prefers, and by next season we should see a team that represents his style. The Oilers, as they are currently compiled, are not an ideal McLellan team—and he hasn’t altered his ‘place and chase’ style—to suit this team’s skills—as much as we might have hoped in year one. I think this means an airlift of role players prepared to place and chase, forecheck, cover and battle—at the cost of skill. Source

Airlift was perhaps hyperbole, but this blog has been known for it in the past and will probably use it again. One thing that is true: The addition of Milan Lucic and Adam Larsson have this team going in a specific direction. Back last summer, when McLellan was announced, I reached out to the excellent blog Fear the Fin (and Derek) for some direction on the coach and his style:

  • Derek/Fear the Fin: “For most of his (San Jose) tenure it was pretty much a puck mover with a stay-at-home type on the blue line. We saw a bit of a shift the last few years as the Sharks acquired more puck-moving guys. For the most part I think he’s going to look to shelter more offensive types with a defensive defenseman.” Source

(BEFORE OILERS) MCLELLAN READING

The additions of Adam Larsson and Milan Lucic, after year one in Edmonton, inform us about what Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan feel is needed for the Oilers to move forward.

  • McLellan: “It’s insanity if you keep banging your head against a wall. We needed to shore up a hole. I know there is a lot of talk about (losing) that dynamic offensive guy, but we also needed a good shutdown 20-minute-a-night guy, and we believe we have that in Larsson. We think we’ve added a No.1 and a No. 2. We’ve added (Oscar) Klefbom and Larsson to our lineup. We didn’t have Klefbom very long and Larsson’s coming in, so that’s a significant change. If they can stay healthy and play at a high level, we think we’ll be better back there.” Source

PROJECTED OILERS LINEUP 2016-17

PROJECTED LINEUP JULY 8

There are issues with this roster—Nail Yakupov is an adventure without the puck—but there is also logic and reason included:

  • Nail Yakupov was highly successful (2-7-9 in 205 minutes 5×5, 2.63/60) including a Corsi for 5×5 percentage of 51.9.
  • Jordan Eberle was also successful with McDavid 8-8-16 in 364 minutes 5×5, 2.64/60) including a Corsi for 5×5 percentage of 52.2.
  • Defensive pairings place a tremendous amount of pressure on that top pairing, but the duos are following McLellan’s puck mover/defensive defender scenario and Klefbom—Larsson is easily the most talented duo.
  • I am still a little unsettled on the goaling. Anyone else feel that way?

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun show this morning, TSN 1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. A rare chance to talk to Steve in-studio for an entire hour. Lansky worked in Edmonton during the 1980s on HNIC and ITV broadcasts, and is a treasure when it comes to sports yesterday and today. Hour 1 will be with Steve, you are welcome to send in questions and comments.
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. We haven’t spoken to Paul since the Hall deal, so this should be fun! Also, Euro 2016 (plenty of Portugal verbal) and CFL.
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Matt will tee up his show tonight (Montorio Homes Green and Gold Kickoff and Post-Game shows) and preview the Eskimos-Roughriders game.

10-1260 on text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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kinger_OIL

– Great post LT. LT says: ” If we can agree that Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Andrej Sekera, Mark Fayne, Brandon Davidson and Darnell Nurse are the top 6D, I think Jordan Oesterle could be a very useful 7″

– I think we can agree that this is not a playoff D. They have untill mid-season deadline to fix:

1) Klef: play every game untill all-star break, then I believe in him
2) Larsson: lets hope they do a better job calling him a #1 than Griff who was “ready for top-4”
3) Sek/Fayne: league average 2nd pairing
4) Davidson: is he ready for camp?: see Klef @1
5) Nurse: Unless he’s with a good vet a la Savard, forget about it, numbers brutal last year
6) Osterle: sure if we had a legit top-6, he’s an ideal 7, but not on this roster

– But we could live with this, figure out who is still tire-fire, add one more at all-star break.

* Aller Roger!!!!!!!

Pouzar

Gonna blow yer mind here…but I would rather Oesterle as the #6 (as it stands today) over Nurse.
Would rather see Nurse in BAK.

leadfarmer

I hope they leave Puljujarvi in the Finland this year. We have enough guys that need sheltering and adding a rookie isn’t going to help. Contract gets pushed back a year too.

Oesterle still needs work in his own end and should work on it in Bakersfield.

I think its going to be hard to get another defensive piece with how low the values are perceived of our players. A season out of the basement is what the doctor ordered

jm363561

This time last year I was hoping that Reinhart and Lander would break out. Hopefully I will not jinx JO this time round. Great pace, the best Oiler at exiting the zone (see CoH for details), a decent shot and who can (allegedly) play both sides. Cheap, waiver exempt, what’s not to like?

If he could learn to defend like Tyson Barrie – his height, weight and age are similar – he could save us an awful lot of cap money. However, I don’t think he will get the chance to do so – Chia is in overdrive to bring success NOW and will go for a proven player, and this gives JO another year to develop his game. Make him no. 8.

Still not given up on Anton and Griff!

jake70

Freakin Raonic…..5th set, ..just broke RF…….up 3-1 serving

Acumen

Love Cody Ceci. He would bethe perfect addition to complete the D corps as that final righty and PP option. How close in value are him and ol’ Griff?

jake70

jake70:
Freakin Raonic…..5th set, ..just broke RF…….up 3-1 serving

Off to the final!!

knighttown

Pouzar:
Gonna blow yer mind here…but I would rather Oesterle as the #6 (as it stands today) over Nurse.
Would rather see Nurse in BAK.

I’ll blow…er…adding to that I think Jordan Oesterle is a regular this season and plays somewhere close to top 4 minutes for a few reasons:
1. PP quarterback abilities (certainly not a legit guy at this point but perhaps PP2)
2. Low/last on the depth chart at PK meaning others will need a break on the PP
3. Very effective on the right side
4. Klefbom’s health scares the living shit out of me
5. Because Oilers and Because defense. Defensemen get hurt early and often and they play a tonne of minutes.

Who plays more minutes this year:
-Oesterle or Kassian
-Oesterle or Yakupov
-Oesterle or Maroon

I’ve sort of been stating for a decade now that 6/7 D are as or more important than middle 6 wingers so I’d probably take Oesterle over all of them.

PokeCheck

LT: “I am still a little unsettled on the goaling. Anyone else feel that way?”

Yes. If Talbot gets hurt in any significant way our season is over.

The insurance that Montoya could have provided us would have been worth every cent of the extra $150K. Guess that Montreal learned that lesson the hard way last year and weren’t willing to make the same mistake twice. You need a backup who can win games. Instead we signed a guy we can demote to the AHL. Think about that.

Woodguy

hopefully we will see the G Money metrics soon (they look very good).

Taking with G, he said that the metric Expected Goals Share (xGF%) at corsica.hockey correlates well with his Dangerous Fenwick.

We need to add a better QC metric to all this, but in the meantime I recommend xGF metrics at corsica.hockey as they use shot type and location to measure “shot quality” and bake it into the data to spit out the player’s expected effect on goals.

This is better than actual goals for and against because if you put Lunqvist and Scrivens you will get different goals against rates.

If you put Stamkos and Hendricks in the same offensive situation you will get different goals for rates.

This takes all of that out and gives an objective view.

Its important to remember to look both at xGA/xGF/xGF% AND RelxGA/RelxGF/RelxGF%.

Some teams are good, some are awful and raw data helps the players on the good teams and hurts the players on the awful teams.

Rel can penalize good players on good teams and boost meh players on bad teams so the truth is somewhere between raw and Rel.

All that being said, here is the list of Dmen (and Larsson and a couple others) from above via RelxGF%

Using Rel because we are comparing Dmen across teams.

REMEMBER – This list does not account for QoC, QoT or extreme ZS and these things matter. All results should be then examined with those variables in mind.

Also, the Dpartners and most common forwards have an impact on these numbers, they don’t happen in a vacuum.

I’ll put a 1, 2, or 3 in front of a player to show if he’s 1st, 2nd, or 3rd pairing to the best of my knowledge. I’ve been drilling into Dmen a lot and have a good feel. If there is more than one number they spent significant time in more than one role.

This is for the 15-16 season

1/2 – HAMPUS.LINDHOLM 4.72
2 – JASON.DEMERS 3.78
2/3 – JACOB.TROUBA 3.51
1 – ANDREJ.SEKERA 3.43
1 – ADAM.LARSSON 2.58
1/2 – KEVAN.MILLER 2.47
1 – TRAVIS.HAMONIC 2.36
1/2/3 – MARTIN.MARINCIN 0.54
3 – DAN.BOYLE 0.19
2 – TYSON.BARRIE -0.52
2 – CODY.CECI -1.21
1/2 DAVID.SAVARD -1.75
2 – KRIS.RUSSELL -1.75
1 – JUSTIN.FAULK -1.82
3 – DENNIS.SEIDENBERG -3.58
1/2 – CAM.FOWLER -4.44
1/2/3 – DARNELL.NURSE -6.01
2/3 – MATT.DUMBA -6.15

Millar played with Chara and Krug, so chances are he’s being zoomed.

Savard played a lot with Jack Johnson so he’s being dragged down.

There are other partner effects in there but those stood out to me.

Victor Bone

For an unpopular suggestion – How about Justin Schultz on a 1 year deal (1 x $2m) to play sheltered minutes and PP? Do we have the D personal now so that he can play the role he should have been doing all along? Come on MacT – use whatever influence you have left and make this so.

Drew

jake70: Off to the final!!

good for him!!!

Woodguy

Pouzar:
Gonna blow yer mind here…but I would rather Oesterle as the #6 (as it stands today) over Nurse.
Would rather see Nurse in BAK.

*cleans up brain from floor*

leadfarmer

Victor Bone:
For an unpopular suggestion – How about Justin Schultz on a 1 year deal (1 x $2m) to play sheltered minutes and PP? Do we have the D personal now so that he can play the role he should have been doing all along? Come on MacT – use whatever influence you have left and make this so.

You really think he wants to come back here? I think he would rather go overseas than come back here.

judgedrude

I think Yak should be with McD because his is cheap and can be successful there. For next year, that is a $10 Million first line that could do some damage.

John Chambers

Victor Bone:
For an unpopular suggestion – How about Justin Schultz on a 1 year deal (1 x $2m) to play sheltered minutes and PP? Do we have the D personal now so that he can play the role he should have been doing all along? Come on MacT – use whatever influence you have left and make this so.

The Edmonton Oilers, their fans, as well as Justin Schultz all know he will never find his “groove” as an Oiler.

Drew

Woodguy:
hopefully we will see the G Money metrics soon (they look very good).

Taking with G, he said that the metric Expected Goals Share (xGF%) at corsica.hockey correlates well with his Dangerous Fenwick.

We need to add a better QC metric to all this, but in the meantime I recommend xGF metrics at corsica.hockey as they use shot type and location to measure “shot quality” and bake it into the data to spit out the player’s expected effect on goals.

This is better than actual goals for and against because if you put Lunqvist and Scrivens you will get different goals against rates.

If you put Stamkos and Hendricks in the same offensive situation you will get different goals for rates.

This takes all of that out and gives an objective view.

Its important to remember to look both at xGA/xGF/xGF% AND RelxGA/RelxGF/RelxGF%.

Some teams are good, some are awful and raw data helps the players on the good teams and hurts the players on the awful teams.

Rel can penalize good players on good teams and boost meh players on bad teams so the truth is somewhere between raw and Rel.

All that being said, here is the list of Dmen (and Larsson and a couple others) from above via RelxGF%

Using Rel because we are comparing Dmen across teams.

REMEMBER – This list does not account for QoC, QoT or extreme ZS and these things matter.All results should be then examined with those variables in mind.

Also, the Dpartners and most common forwards have an impact on these numbers, they don’t happen in a vacuum.

I’ll put a 1, 2, or 3in front of a player to show if he’s 1st, 2nd, or 3rd pairing to the best of my knowledge.I’ve been drilling into Dmen a lot and have a good feel.If there is more than one number they spent significant time in more than one role.

This is for the 15-16 season

1/2 – HAMPUS.LINDHOLM4.72
2 – JASON.DEMERS3.78
2/3 – JACOB.TROUBA3.51
1 – ANDREJ.SEKERA3.43
1 – ADAM.LARSSON2.58
1/2 – KEVAN.MILLER2.47
1 – TRAVIS.HAMONIC2.36
1/2/3 – MARTIN.MARINCIN0.54
3 – DAN.BOYLE0.19
2 – TYSON.BARRIE-0.52
2 – CODY.CECI-1.21
1/2 DAVID.SAVARD-1.75
2 – KRIS.RUSSELL-1.75
1 – JUSTIN.FAULK-1.82
3 – DENNIS.SEIDENBERG-3.58
1/2 – CAM.FOWLER-4.44
1/2/3 – DARNELL.NURSE-6.01
2/3 – MATT.DUMBA-6.15

Millar played with Chara and Krug, so chances are he’s being zoomed.

Savard played a lot with Jack Johnson so he’s being dragged down.

There are other partner effects in there but those stood out to me.

you mean other things can influence goals against beside the d-man, who knew. really looking forward to what looks like amazing work!

LMHF#1

Victor Bone:
For an unpopular suggestion – How about Justin Schultz on a 1 year deal (1 x $2m) to play sheltered minutes and PP? Do we have the D personal now so that he can play the role he should have been doing all along? Come on MacT – use whatever influence you have left and make this so.

NO.

By the end he wasn’t any good on the PP. Made none of the plays he made that first year and never did figure out how to fire the puck.

Drew

WG – would you do a Lindholm for Klef / pou / yak trade?

Are you surprised by Sekera on your list?

Woodguy

Some interesting numbers.

RelxGF% for Larsson, Trouba and Nurse

18 year old
Larsson : -0.02 (rookie)
Trouba : not in NHL
Nurse : not in NHL

19 year old
Larsson : -10.33 (1/2 season with Greene vs 1sts)
Trouba : -2.41 (rookie)
Nurse: Not in NHL

20 year old
Larsson: +0.67
Trouba: +2.20
Nurse : -6.01 (rookie)

21 year old
Larsson: +5.47
Trouba: +3.51
Nurse :

22 year old
Larsson +2.58
Trouba:
Nurse:

I think this suggests that its prudent for the Oilers to give Nurse another year, as rookies gonna rook, but he rooked pretty hard.

I’d love to see the splits on xGF with and without Sekera when his QC would have dropped.

Can’t do that on corsica.hockey but when G is done you will be able to do with DFF.

Both EDM and NJD are guilty of throwing Nurse and Larsson into the deep too quickly (bad teams do bad things)

WPG has taken the right way with Trouba and he played 3rds mostly in his first 2 years. Moved up more this year (and did well up the roster) but still played 50% thirds.

He’s also mostly played with Stuart, who’s been a serious drag on his numbers.

Just this past year Trouba was 6% CF better away from him, even though his time away was mostly spent up the roster (albeit with good players)

Woodguy

Drew:
WG – would you do a Lindholm for Klef / pou / yak trade?

Are you surprised by Sekera on your list?

Yes
No

Victor Bone

John Chambers,

I agree – valid point. It is too bad as all of the options on this list would cost significant assets and Justin is simply $ and providing the right minutes + zone starts. Perhaps he will find his “groove” in NJ.

flygoalie

I like that line up to start the season, save for JP to let him develop unless he gives them no other choice out of camp. I think being sheltered with a stronger top 4, Davidson & Osterle and come out of the end of the year looking like gold.

rickithebear

I recommend taking the 750 players of data a season.
taking the 11 yr X 750 = 8250 set of data

breaking them up into 96 groups of
1st-4th Comp; 1st – 4th Teamtes; 6 groups of ZS
that averages to 86 player data sets per group.

then breaking each of those96 groups intp 9 grops of 96 tpo get
Uppr; mid; lwr; 1st-4th comp
upr; mid ; Lwr 1st – 4th teammates
6 zone starts to
86/9 = avg 9.5 players data for each of the 864 possible combinations.

you see certain grouping coaches do not like to run
.
you get the expected situational AVG range for.
offence and Defence:

Professor Q

leadfarmer:
I hope they leave Puljujarvi in the Finland this year.We have enough guys that need sheltering and adding a rookie isn’t going to help.Contract gets pushed back a year too.

Oesterle still needs work in his own end and should work on it in Bakersfield.

I think its going to be hard to get another defensive piece with how low the values are perceivedof our players.A season out of the basement is what the doctor ordered

Why Finland over the AHL?

Woodguy

2/3 – MATT.DUMBA -6.15

This really took the shine off Dumba for me.

Good team so his Rel won’t be great, but 2nd year in the league and easy zone starts and deployment.

Might be a Julz in the making.

Also,

Schultz last year was RelxGF -2.5

Woodguy

rickithebear:
I recommend taking the 750 players of data a season.
taking the 11 yr X 750 = 8250 set of data

breaking them up into 96 groups of
1st-4th Comp; 1st – 4th Teamtes; 6 groups of ZS
that averages to 86 player data sets per group.

then breaking each of those96 groups intp 9 grops of96 tpo get
Uppr; mid; lwr; 1st-4th comp
upr; mid ; Lwr 1st – 4th teammates
6 zone starts to
86/9 = avg9.5 players data for each of the 864 possible combinastions.

you see certain grouping coaches do not like to run
.
you get the expected situational AVG range for.
offence:
EVGF/60
EVAF/60
EVPF/60
——————
HSC Corsi/60
LSC Corsi/60

HSC misses/60
LSC misses/60

HSC SF/60
LSC SF/60

GF/60

Defence:
HSC Corsi/60
LSC Corsi/60

HSC Blocks/60
LSC Blocks/60

HSC misses/60
LSC Misses/60

HSC SA/60
LSCA SA/60

HSC GA/60
LSC GA/60

HSCA Goalie save%
LSCA goalie Save%

That allows you to measure a player versus expected as a forward.
Measure the D versus expected
and
look at goalie performance while the d is on the ice.

I recommend you doing this for us and then making the data public

OF17

Woodguy,

So if I’m reading this correctly, you’re going to do a regression analysis between QC and scoring chance conversion rates and use that to adjust the raw xGF% numbers? If so, that seems like a great plan. Would give a much more accurate picture of what a specific player’s actual xGF% is, since it matters if you’re a team of Letestus going up against a team of Crosbys, and right now the numbers don’t account for that.

At that point, you run spreadsheets with xGF% next to QC and QT and look for gems. QC/QT would be an interesting metric as well. We could call it the “did the Oilers throw him into the deep end” stat.

till_horcoff_is_coach

WG: this is great. One question I have when looking at the year over year metrics is how repeatable are the results?. IOW, is this a skill our just a byproduct of playing conditions?

flygoalie

Still think they should lock Yak in a room with Brett Hull film and a repeated recording of “Don’t carry the puck, go to open ice.” Then take him for a set of contacts so he can see the net and let him buck. Lucic whispering in his ear between shifts would prove beneficial as well.

admiralmark

Looking at that D lineup as it stands and i cant help but wonder if we have a year with league average injuries but Larsson goes down for 3-4 months… Where does this team finish?

I’m gonna go ahead and say bottom 5. They cannot stand pat on that RHD.

rickithebear

you get situational Expectations from 864 groups:

EVGF/60
EVAF/60
EVPF/60
——————
HSC Corsi/60
LSC Corsi/60

HSC misses/60
LSC misses/60

HSC SF/60
LSC SF/60

GF/60

Defence:
HSC Corsi/60
LSC Corsi/60

HSC Blocks/60
LSC Blocks/60

HSC misses/60
LSC Misses/60

HSC SA/60
LSCA SA/60

HSC GA/60
LSC GA/60

HSCA Goalie save%
LSCA goalie Save%

That allows you to measure a player versus expected as a forward.
Measure the D versus expected
and
look at goalie performance while the d is on the ice.

All it is really doing is taking Desjardins Behind the net Data list
and
breaking them up into MY:

Low Scoring Shot Area
(.9950 to .915 Save% shots)
(0.5 to 8.5 shooting % shots)

High Scoring Shot Area
(.915 to .8000 save% shots)
(8.5 to 20 shooting % shots)
You can compare a player to these results.

Defensively the HSCA is largely fdefended by Dmen. With LSC shots defended by forwards.

Offensively the HSCA is largely attacked by Forwards and LSCA by Dmen.

Rocket sience I tell ya!

Since 06-07;

but I do not want anyone Pissing on MY
HSC
and
LSC
parade.

When War on ice first presented High ; MEd; Low SC areas.
I commented there HSC area differed from my HSC.
I said each had there own interpretation.

I hinted at league average Shooting a nd Save % as the line in sand for HSC area.

low and behold if war on ices HSCA total droped from their original much larger HS shot count Per 60 to a HSC shot AVg based on that League average line in the sand.

It it is at that point I abandoned looking at Data sets to get my numbers and used War on Ice’s
numbers for HSC .

I could finally trust them.
Now they closed down.

rickithebear

Now they closed!

I do not have the computer ability to strip down
the data.

But I am sure someone will Get to that point.

Then there will be on last phase of Analytics.
LSC closed shots (hit goalie)
LSC Open shots (require save)

HSC Closed shots (hit goalie)
LSC closed shots (requires save)

all giving the play path.
Corsi
blocks
Misses
SF
save %
Rebound rate
% hSC shots from rebound
for Forwards and Dmen.

06-07 to 08-09.

But I think you guys are finally getting it.

WG and G Money:

I love the points you bring and the positions you take.
Looking forward to this new analytics:

But please not Tempo.

Have played for differing teams.
and systems.

Tempo in play is really the structure and situational ask of player.

One-Timer

LMHF#1: NO.

By the end he wasn’t any good on the PP. Made none of the plays he made that first year and never did figure out how to fire the puck.

But he brings back “championship experience.” I thought we paid big bucks for that…?

Obiwan Eberle

rickithebear,

Hello Mr Bear Sir,

As a data scientist i could take a look at the data sets and might be able to provide a cleaned set for you to run inferences from…just sayin…

let me know exactly the where and what of what you need….I’ll take a look.

misfit

Adam Larsson has played 274 NHL games (an absolute ideal number for a defenseman you’ve just added IMO). Griffin Reinhart had 8. Calling Griffin “top 4” is based on junior experience, minor league experience, and hopes & dreams. Calling Larsson a #1 (which I haven’t seen anyone do so far) is based on an actual NHL resume where he had played at lease one full season in that role. Very different.

Fayne/Sekera should be a very good pairing for us. They were a little overmatched in the role of the top pair last year, but they faired admirably and should do well as a #2pair

Larsson, Klefbom, Sekera, and Fayne would be comparable as a top 4 to when we had Brewer, Niinimaa, Smith, and Staios IMO. Ferguson/Semenov vs Nurse/Davidson look like an upgrade for the current group. Those weren’t the Pronger years, but the defense was solid and definitely playoff calibre.

Andy Dufresne

If Quality of Competition is the ice time-weighted average of a player’s opponents’ Corsi number relative to his teammates. How is the division into 3rds created (1st 2nd 3rd) who does this work?

Woodguy

2 – TYSON.BARRIE -0.52

You’d obviously want to see a positive number here for a guy you want to trade for.

However, I truly think that with his partner being *barely NHLer* Holden and he played 2nd pair, that this number would improve in EDM, especially next to Sekera.

Ca$h-McMoney!

PokeCheck:
LT: “I am still a little unsettled on the goaling. Anyone else feel that way?”

Yes. If Talbot gets hurt in any significant way our season is over.

The insurance that Montoya could have provided us would have been worth every cent of the extra $150K. Guess that Montreal learned that lesson the hard way last year and weren’t willing to make the same mistake twice. You need a backup who can win games. Instead we signed a guy we can demote to the AHL. Think about that.

2014 to 2016 (2 years) 5×5

MONTOYA GP 45 TOI 1819:03 GAA 2.34 SV% 91.38
GUSS GP 31 1249:58 GAA 2.40 SV% 91.82

Hardly seems like anything to get worked up over.

N64

Woodguy:
2 – JASON.DEMERS 3.78
2/3 – JACOB.TROUBA 3.51
1 – ANDREJ.SEKERA 3.43
1 – ADAM.LARSSON 2.58

Sigh.

Ca$h-McMoney!

Woodguy:
2 – TYSON.BARRIE-0.52

You’d obviously want to see a positive number here for a guy you want to trade for.

However, I truly think that with his partner being *barely NHLer* Holden and he played 2nd pair, that this number would improve in EDM, especially next to Sekera.

I agree, however, it puts acquisition cost into focus, because I’m not sure we can afford to be wrong here. Not exactly a safe pickup.

That’s multiplied by the fact that he is looking for a deal with term and dollars.

Also his existing coaching/management staff don’t seem high on him. Normally that would be an issue for me, but because it’s Colorado I’m not sure of that either.

Andy Dufresne

IMO for better or worse JP is a lock to make the team. He will be playing in North America between AHL and NHL. I conclude this based on the verbal from scouts and Oilers team management that he is NHL ready. Also because Yak will not be here in September and who else do the Oilers have on the right side? The real question for me is will the Oilers bring in a stop gap right winger to push JP to third line sheltered minutes or will they bring in a third line center that moves Drai to the RW on the Nuge Pouliot line, also thereby pushing JP to third line sheltered minutes.

Yak is done here for numerous reasons…only question is can you do better than a 3rd round pick to move his cap space or perhaps get a underachiever prospect type in return for YAK. Someone you can move to the AHL and save cap space.

GARAUNTEE you the Oilers view JP as a far better player TODAY, not based on future potential but on the player he is today, than they do YAK. Its why you consistently hear the narrative that “landing JP is the thing that allowed the Oilers to trade Taylor Hall”

This management team is in Win Now mode….keeping Yak around just kicks the can down the road…does not fit in the Win Now paradigm.

leadfarmer,

Woodguy

Hall of Shame: Sigh.

Demers played 2nd pair

Larsson plated 1sts w/ a -24 Rel Zone start (next toughest in leause was -14)

Sekera played mostly firsts with 2 players who shouldn’t in Nurse and Fayne.

Trouba played half 3rd and half 2nds.

Context matters.

I don’t know how Demers would have done vs. toughs.

When Gmoney is done we’ll know

Woodguy

OF17:
Woodguy,

So if I’m reading this correctly, you’re going to do a regression analysis between QC and scoring chance conversion rates and use that to adjust the raw xGF% numbers? If so, that seems like a great plan. Would give a much more accurate picture of what a specific player’s actual xGF% is, since it matters if you’re a team of Letestus going up against a team of Crosbys, and right now the numbers don’t account for that.

At that point, you run spreadsheets with xGF% next to QC and QT and look for gems. QC/QT would be an interesting metric as well. We could call it the “did the Oilers throw him into the deep end” stat.

Basically yes, Gmoney could answer better.

We’re coming up with a better QC metric and you’ll be able to see DFF (G’s xGF) vs each level of comp and well as TOI vs each comp so you can see the blend that produces the bottom line number.

N64

Woodguy: Demers played 2nd pair

Larsson plated 1sts w/ a -24 Rel Zone start (next toughest in leause was -14)

Sekera played mostly firsts with 2 players who shouldn’t in Nurse and Fayne.

Trouba played half 3rdan half 2nds.

Context matters.

I don’t know how Demers would have done vs. toughs.

When Gmoney is done we’ll know

Will he suss out the Greene effect as well?

JimmyV1965

Victor Bone:
For an unpopular suggestion – How about Justin Schultz on a 1 year deal (1 x $2m) to play sheltered minutes and PP? Do we have the D personal now so that he can play the role he should have been doing all along? Come on MacT – use whatever influence you have left and make this so.

Are you pulling our collective leg? Horrible idea. Not to mention that he would probably quit hockey before coming here.

kinger_OIL

Woodguy,

– Yes that zone start is huge, and hasn’t had a lot of attention here, I don’t believe: Larsson by far had the hardest zone starts in the league last year. That sh$t matters….

– Now we will see how playing in the big-boy conference affects his performance, but on a better offensive team than NJ, and hopefully more balanced zone starts, its promising (+healthy Klef)

N64

JimmyV1965: Not to mention that he would probably quit hockey before coming here.

Don’t need any more periods like that again.

Drew

Andy Dufresne:
IMO for better or worse JP is a lock to make the team. He will be playing in North America between AHL and NHL. I conclude this based on the verbal from scouts and Oilers team management that he is NHL ready. Also because Yak will not be here in September and who else do the Oilers have on the right side? The real question for me is will the Oilers bring in a stop gap right winger to push JP to third line sheltered minutes or will they bring in a third line center that moves Drai to the RW on the Nuge Pouliot line, also thereby pushing JP to third line sheltered minutes.

Yak is done here for numerous reasons…only question is can you do better than a 3rd round pick to move his cap space or perhaps get a underachiever prospect type in return for YAK. Someone you can move to the AHL and save cap space.

GARAUNTEE you the Oilers view JP as a far better player TODAY, not based on future potential but on the player he is today, than they do YAK. Its why you consistently hear the narrative that “landing JP is the thing that allowed the Oilers to trade Taylor Hall”

This management team is in Win Now mode….keeping Yak around just kicks the can down the road…does not fit in the Win Now paradigm.

leadfarmer,

Yaks cap space to play in the top nine is minimal. rather than shed a decreasing value asset for nothing i would move hendricks for cap space and bring in a condor to save 1.8MM or so

Younger Oil

My ideal setup is to trade for another RHD (someone in the 3-10 range on the list would be ideal), then send Nurse to the AHL, and keep Oesterle on as the #7D.