MADMAN ACROSS THE WATER

The Edmonton Oilers shop the CHL heavily—probably too heavily in the case of the WHL—but have broken out from previous trends in their two Chiarelli—Green summers at the draft.

OILERS DRAFT TRENDS 2008-14

  1. WHL: 15 players (27 %) including Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl
  2. USA: 8 players (14.5 %) including Pitlick, Simpson, Nagelvoort
  3. OHL: 7 players (12.7 %) including McDavid, Hall, Yakupov, Nurse
  4. Sweden: 6 players (10.9 %) including Paajarvi, Lander, Klefbom, Lagesson
  5. QMJHL: 5 players (9 %) including Marco Roy and Keven Bouchard
  6. BCJHL: 5 players (9 %) including Bigos, Khaira and Coughlin
  7. Finland: 4 players (7 %) including Hartikainen and Rajala
  8. Russia: 2 players (3.6 %) Bogdan Yakimov, Anton Slepyshev
  9. Slovakia: 2 players (3.6 %) Martin Marincin and Martin Gernat
  10. Belarus: 1 player (1.8 %) Kristians Pelss

A few notes:

  • The NHL as a whole (including Edmonton) drafted out of the WHL at about 17%. The Oilers loved the dub in a big way, using a quarter of their total picks on players from the league.
  • The NHL drafted out of USA leagues and colleges at 24%, meaning Edmonton was underusing this area compared to the rest of the NHL.
  • The NHL used the OHL at 20% and it’s the best junior league in the world. You’d really have to work to convince me that it’s wise to under draft out of the Ontario league. Seriously.

OILERS DRAFT TRENDS UNDER CHIARELLI—GREEN

  1. USA (26 %)—Caleb Jones, John Marino, Graham McPhee, Vincent Desharnais
  2. OHL (20 %)—Connor McDavid, Markus Niemelainen, Dylan Wells
  3. Finland (13 %)—Jesse Puljujarvu, Aapeli Rasanen
  4. WHL (13 %)—Ethan Bear, Tyler Benson
  5. Czech (7 %)—Miroslav Svoboda
  6. Russia (7 %)—Ziyat Paigin
  7. OJHL (7 %)—Matthew Cairns
  8. Sweden (7 %)—Filip Berglund
  • The NHL drafted (including Edmonton) out of the USA at a 25 percent rate, meaning the Oilers under Chiarelli and Green are average—a massive improvement over the previous decade.
  • The NHL drafted (including Edmonton) out of the OHL at a 19 percent rate, and the Oilers under Chiarelli and Green are average—improving the performance in this areas as well.
  • The NHL drafted (including Edmonton) out of the WHL at a 16 percent rate, and the Oilers under Chiarelli and Green are slightly below average—but well within the range of reasonable.
  • Although the sample size is small after two drafts, the fact Edmonton is spending more currency in the OHL and the USHL is extremely encouraging. Fish where the fish are!

WAIVER WORRY

  • David Musil is in the same spot as Brandon Davidson one year ago—Edmonton will have to expose him if there is a decision to send him down after training camp opens. Davidson had played 12 NHL games this time last season, Musil has played four games. Davidson was a better prospect in my opinion one year ago, and of course Musil is buried by so many similar player-types he is basically a canary in a coal mine. That doesn’t mean he has no chance at an NHL career, however.
  • Tyler Pitlick is probably behind Jordan Eberle, Nail Yakupov, Zack Kassian, Iiro Pakarinen and Jesse (when he signs) Puljujuarvi on the RW depth chart. Taylor Beck, Patrick Russell and Anton Slepyshev will also by auditioning, so Pitlick is a likely waiver candidate this fall.
  • Jonas Gustavsson is signed and should win the No. 2 NHL job—but it is not a certainty. Edmonton waived Mark Fayne during the 2015-16 season, Gustavsson is a lesser player in my opinion.

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74 Responses to "MADMAN ACROSS THE WATER"

  1. spoiler says:

    I know you have JP at a high percentage to make the team this year, LT, but I think his minutes, if any, will come at the end of the season. I know we’re both going off verbal and our intuition, so it’s impossible to say anything for certain, but that’s the feeling I have.

  2. Halfwise says:

    LT, when Puljujarvi signs, does he rank above or below Yak?

    Edit: or Zak, or Pak…

  3. spoiler says:

    Awesome posts by WG and G-Mon these past few days, but a shout-out to Hall of Shame in the morning thread, who had me smiling all the way through…

  4. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    I know you have JP at a high percentage to make the team this year, LT, but I think his minutes, if any, will come at the end of the season.I know we’re both going off verbal and our intuition, so it’s impossible to say anything for certain, but that’s the feeling I have.

    I hope so. The Oilers would be wise to make absolutely sure he is ready.

  5. Lowetide says:

    Halfwise:
    LT, when Puljujarvi signs, does he rank above or below Yak?

    Edit: or Zak, or Pak…

    I think the Oilers put him behind Eberle, but it is imo unwise.

  6. theres oil in virginia says:

    Wow, McDavid is so good, he was drafted out of the OHL twice!! (Which is a snarky way to say you’ve got him listed as a MacT-Tambo draft pick too.) 🙂

  7. theres oil in virginia says:

    spoiler:
    Awesome posts by WG and G-Mon these past few days, but a shout-out to Hall of Shame in the morning thread, who had me smiling all the way through…

    You must have had your sarcasm meter properly adjusted.

  8. sumaclab says:

    The fact that Yakupov remains an Oiler is not a surprise to me. Could not see a scenario where Chia was going to get any value. Plus the management,coach and player all combined last season to derail this young man. It was a imo the worst handling of a player since Jason Bonsignor. Yak can be a complimentary player given opportunity. He needs TM to give him a defined role and let him work within that role to contribute to the team. Glenn Anderson was who he was because Sather recognized that Anderson needed to let a little of that crazy talent loose without constantly harping at him about his 200ft game. His net crashes were legendary. Yak can contribute to this team but TM needs to let Yak have some reign to be creative and just be what he is. MacTavish aka Gabby was known in junior as a flashy scoring player but while coaching turned talent into checkers at times to the detriment of the player and the team. TM is not going to turn Yak into a Pavel Datsuyk . Nor s he going turn Jesse Puljujarvi into Jari Kurri. Nor RNH into Litle Joe. Structure in hockey wlll win games . But as TM has learnt it also takes creativity and high level talent to go to the next level. He has the players he needs. But does he have the patience and wherewithal to let them make mistakes and have them learn from those mistakes? I hope he does. With a 25% turnover in his lineup once again this fall he’ll need that patence early and often.

  9. Richard S.S. says:

    Laurent Brossoit is the Goalie that gets exposed in the draft, or Jonas Gustavsson gets extended so he can be exposed or Peter Chiarelli acquires a Goalie that can meet the requirements.

    As lines go, I would prefer:
    Milan Lucic – Connor McDavid – Nail Yakupov;
    Benoit Pouliot – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Jordan Eberle;
    Patrick Maroon – Leon Draisaitl – Jesse Puljujarvi;
    Matt Hendricks – Mark Letestu – Iiro Pakarinen.

    Those lines should cause problems for opposing Teams.

  10. Mr DeBakey says:

    Belarus: 1 player (1.8 %) Kristians Pelss

    Hockey players whose given and family names end in “s” usually come from Latvia.

  11. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    spoiler:
    Awesome posts by WG and G-Mon these past few days, but a shout-out to Hall of Shame in the morning thread, who had me smiling all the way through…

    Sarcasm is the lowest form of wit…

    ǝɔuǝbıןןǝʇuı ɟo ɯɹoɟ ʇsǝɥbıɥ ǝɥʇ ʇnq
    (ǝpןıʍ ɹɐɔso)

  12. Lowetide says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Belarus: 1 player (1.8 %) Kristians Pelss

    Hockey players whose given and family names end in “s” usually come from Latvia.

    And yet, the young man was drafted out of Belarus (according to hockeydb).

  13. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    Lowetide: And yet, the young man was drafted out of Belarus (according to hockeydb).

    Yes. Latvian team in Belarus Extraliga his draft year:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HK_R%C4%ABga

    HK Rīga is an ice hockey club, based in Riga, Latvia. It was founded in 2009 to serve as the farm club of Kontinental Hockey League club Dinamo Riga. Club played 2009-10 season in the Belarusian Extraliga, but joined the Russian Junior Hockey League (MHL), the Junior league of the Kontinental Hockey League, for the 2010–2011 season.

  14. 36 percent body fat says:

    can they please stop drafting from the QMJHL and BCJHL

  15. Mr DeBakey says:

    ~ Hall of Shame ~: Yes. Latvian team in Belarus Extraliga his draft year:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HK_R%C4%ABga

    HK Rīga is an ice hockey club, based in Riga, Latvia. It was founded in 2009 to serve as the farm club of Kontinental Hockey League club Dinamo Riga. Club played 2009-10 season in the Belarusian Extraliga, but joined the Russian Junior Hockey League (MHL), the Junior league of the Kontinental Hockey League, for the 2010–2011 season.

    Learn something every day!

  16. geowal says:

    Richard S.S.: Laurent Brossoit is the Goalie that gets exposed in the draft, or Jonas Gustavsson gets extended so he can be exposed or Peter Chiarelli acquires a Goalie that can meet the requirements.

    Does it really work this way? Sure, they have to expose a minimum who meet criteria “X”, but they still only protect one goalie. With or without a signed Gustavsson, won’t Brossoit still be eligible?

  17. Jethro Tull says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Belarus: 1 player (1.8 %) Kristians Pelss

    Hockey players whose given and family names end in “s” usually come from Latvia.

    One thing i’ve learnt about names is never assume. Isn’t that right, Mr. Zlatan Ibrahimivic from Sweden, born to a Bosnian Muslim family. Oh, and Milan Lucic. From Vancouver.

  18. blainer says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Laurent Brossoit is the Goalie that gets exposed in the draft, or Jonas Gustavsson gets extended so he can be exposed or Peter Chiarelli acquires a Goalie that can meet the requirements.

    As lines go, I would prefer:
    Milan Lucic – Connor McDavid – Nail Yakupov;
    Benoit Pouliot – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Jordan Eberle;
    Patrick Maroon – Leon Draisaitl – Jesse Puljujarvi;
    Matt Hendricks – Mark Letestu – Iiro Pakarinen.

    Those lines should cause problems for opposing Teams.

    This is my lineup also. Chia has said he expects JP to be ready and maybe he is or isn’t. It really is up to him to show otherwise.

    We always say players are rushed. 1st overall’s always make their teams.

    We sent nurse back for two years.. that is not rushed. Now he came up to early last year due to injury.. He would have been fine in a sheltered role.

    Drai was sent back after half a season or so. right thing to do. They sent him down in year 2 but injuries and his play showed he was ready. Rushed maybe but not to bad for a third overall.

    Gags … absolutely rushed..

    MPS stayed in Sweden I believe for two years post draft .. not rushed.

    Eberle sent back to junior for two years..again not rushed.

    IMO a rushed player makes the team after his draft. The oilers have been as patient as a lot of other teams with a lot of their 1st rounders as to when they are ready.

    Also IMO … JP will show if he is ready. It happens that some players are just NHL ready. He has a mans body and has been playing against men already. I think he makes the team.. Is it the correct thing to do? ask me after we watch him play the right side on the point for the PP.

    Having said all that I would be OK if they send him down and decide on him in 10 game segments. Which is also what I expect the oil to do if he makes the team opening night. If he does makes the team lets see if he is still there after game 10.

    The new guys are trying to send them down but hopefully they don’t get nailed with injury bug next year.

  19. blainer says:

    sumaclab:
    The fact that Yakupov remains an Oiler is not a surprise to me. Could not see a scenario where Chia was going to get any value. Plus the management,coach and player all combined last season to derail this young man. It was a imo the worst handling of a player since Jason Bonsignor. Yak can be a complimentary player given opportunity. He needs TM to give him a defined role and let him work within that role to contribute to the team. Glenn Anderson was who he was because Satherrecognized that Anderson needed to let a little of that crazy talent loose without constantly harping at him about his 200ft game. His net crashes were legendary. Yak can contribute to this team but TM needs to let Yak have some reign to be creative and just be what he is. MacTavish aka Gabby was known in junior as a flashy scoring player but while coaching turned talent into checkers attimes to the detriment of the player and the team. TM is not going to turn Yak into a Pavel Datsuyk . Nor s he going turn Jesse Puljujarvi into Jari Kurri. Nor RNH into Litle Joe. Structure in hockey wlll win games . But as TM has learnt it also takes creativity and high level talent to go to the next level. He has the players he needs. But does he have the patience and wherewithal to let them make mistakes and have them learn from those mistakes?I hope he does. With a 25% turnover in his lineup once again this fall he’ll need that patence early and often.

    I can tell you there are a lot of anti Yak fans here and I am probably the worst. I wanted him gone long ago. With the addition of CMD and now Lucic I actually think Yak might have a chance to revive his career.

    I will also say the subtraction of Hall will help Yak IMO as again IMO Hall often opted NOT to pass to Yak on many occasions. I did not notice this happening with CMD last year and now with Lucic here Yak will have some cover even against the toughs which is what they will get a lot of by nature of his line mates.

    He HAS to put the work in though. I really suspect and I may be wrong here that he needs to practice more. Especially putting the puck on target and FFS stay onside.

    Now after saying all that I will still be Happy if they could get something of value in a trade.. which I don’t think they can.

  20. Water Fire says:

    Re Burch’s ON piece about goalies, in my view we have another myth busted.

    As with defencemen, many of the elite goalies are taken in the first round. Certainly there are great players taken in the second and occassionally later rounds, but these draft wins are very luck based.

    We also know that outside of the top 3 the odds of players being elite begins to decline fairly quickly.

    So while you want to draft the best player available, that becomes quickly harder to determine, so it follows logically to draft for need.

    If you’re drafting 9th and there is a special goalie or D, you take that player if that need is greater than a forward. In Nurse’s draft the mistake wasn’t passing Nichushkin, it was passing Ristolainen.

    The other thing that makes this the best strategy is that trades have become very ‘sticky’. The cap complicates things with money and also long term implications such as ELC’s ending, bonuses and we know not all teams are wizzes with this stuff.

    So player trades are hard to do and it is not actually as easy as drafting the BPA and trading them for what you need. The values don’t end up being even in a simple manner. The NHL is not a free moving market.

  21. Lowetide says:

    blainer: This is my lineup also. Chia has said he expects JP to be ready and maybe he is or isn’t. It really is up to him to show otherwise.

    We always say players are rushed. 1st overall’s always make their teams.

    We sent nurse back for two years.. that is not rushed. Now he came up to early last year due to injury.. He would have been fine in a sheltered role.

    Drai was sent back after half a season or so. right thing to do. They sent him down in year 2 but injuries and his play showed he was ready. Rushed maybe but not to bad for a third overall.

    Gags … absolutely rushed..

    MPS stayed in Sweden I believe for two years post draft .. not rushed.

    Eberle sent back to junior for two years..again not rushed.

    IMO a rushed player makes the team after his draft. The oilers have been as patient as a lot of other teams with a lot of their 1st rounders as to when they are ready.

    Also IMO … JP will show if he is ready. It happens that some players are just NHL ready. He has a mans body and has been playing against men already. I think he makes the team.. Is it the correct thing to do? ask me after we watch him play the right side on the point for the PP.

    Having said all that I would still send him down and decide on him in 10 game segments. Which is what I expect the oil to do if he makes the team opening night. If he does makes the team lets see if he is still there after game 10.

    The new guys are trying to send them down but hopefully they don’t get nailed with injury bug next year.

    Paajarvi was in the NHL, age 19.

  22. blainer says:

    Lowetide: Paajarvi was in the NHL, age 19.

    Ha .. I stand corrected. Thought he stayed in Sweden.. Oh well lets put him in the rushed category then.

  23. Water Fire says:

    Hey Swedish, if you’re around, what is the word on Larsson over there? Are there any perceived issues that have held him back so far that we don’t read about here? Does he have sideburns?

  24. PaperKurtRussell says:

    I don’t want to get off on a rant about Yak, but I have observed a lot of chatter about him the past few months, especially about his play with McD vs Letestu, and other such stats. What I find interesting, is that not once can I recall anyone cutting him some slack regarding coming back from a devastating injury. Countless players have struggled in Oil country upon return from injury, and the narrative usually reflects that. I guess Yak is just a whipping boy and that context is not necessary? Interesting.

    Having said that, I hope to see a more mature Yak show up to camp this year and earn a decent spot in the lineup.

  25. Pouzar says:

    blainer,

    Careful buddy, that’s a negative remark about Yak and Hall in the same post!
    Blasphemy in these parts /endTroll

  26. Richard S.S. says:

    geowal,

    There needs to be at least one Goalie, one Defenseman and one Forward eligible to be drafted. There are a minimum number of games that must be played to be eligible. There must be a certain amount of the Cap expo$ed for the Draft. And so on and on and on it goes, not quite yet officially official.

  27. sumaclab says:

    PaperKurtRussell:
    I don’t want to get off on a rant about Yak, but I have observed a lot of chatter about him the past few months, especially about his play with McD vs Letestu, and other such stats.What I find interesting, is that not once can I recall anyone cutting him some slack regarding coming back from a devastating injury.Countless players have struggled in Oil country upon return from injury, and the narrative usually reflects that.I guess Yak is just a whipping boy and that context is not necessary?Interesting.

    I think we will see a young man more humble and more commited to the team on and off the ice. His confidence like Landers was severely shaken last season. With the additons and subtractions we have seen so far there is hope for a better season.Having said that, I hope to see a more mature Yak show up to camp this year and earn a decent spot in the lineup.

  28. blainer says:

    PaperKurtRussell:
    I don’t want to get off on a rant about Yak, but I have observed a lot of chatter about him the past few months, especially about his play with McD vs Letestu, and other such stats.What I find interesting, is that not once can I recall anyone cutting him some slack regarding coming back from a devastating injury.Countless players have struggled in Oil country upon return from injury, and the narrative usually reflects that.I guess Yak is just a whipping boy and that context is not necessary?Interesting.

    Having said that, I hope to see a more mature Yak show up to camp this year and earn a decent spot in the lineup.

    This is a good point. I’m sure it’s been mentioned but the problem for Yak is it’s just another excuse added onto the already big pile of excuses.

    In order for Yak to have a good year he needs to practice his ass off. I hope he realises this and hopefully his agent is making him aware that he is running out of road. He is closing in on Dan Cleary territory now.

    I am hoping he also realises that he was most likely cut from the Russian team at the WC . That alone should give the man great motivation.

    A date with Gary Roberts wouldn’t hurt IMO.

  29. blainer says:

    Pouzar:
    blainer,

    Careful buddy, that’s a negative remark about Yak and Hall in the same post!
    Blasphemy in these parts/endTroll

    LOL…good point .. I better run for cover..

  30. Pouzar says:

    blainer: This is a good point. I’m sure it’s been mentioned but the problem for Yak is it’s just another excuse added onto the already big pile of excuses.

    In order for Yak to have a good year he needs to practice his ass off. I hope he realises this and hopefully his agent is making him aware that he is running out of road. He is closing in on Dan Cleary territory now.

    I am hoping he also realises that he was most likely cut from the Russian team at the WC . That alone should give the man great motivation.

    A date with Gary Roberts wouldn’t hurt IMO.

    It’s Eberle’s fault.

    Just wait for it.

  31. StixMalone says:

    Just wondering why Puljujarvi isn’t signed yet? You think it’s got to be a standard ELC…..

  32. blainer says:

    Pouzar: It’s Eberle’s fault.

    Just wait for it.

    Ha !! Yup he’s most likely the first one to be blamed.. You might want to ask Asia’s opinion on that one come november..lol..

    Suspect though it will still come down to being the fault of TMc.

  33. Oil2Oilers says:

    Every team has prospects like Musil that are blocked in there path to the NHL by organizational strength/incompetence.

    Are there any with offensive RHD in a similar spot that may exposed on waivers or want to play swapsies?

  34. sumaclab says:

    Lowetide I am cautiously optimistic looking at this teams 50 man roster. I would like Chia to breath and take a wait and see attitude in the next while. Opportunities like the Maroon trade will come along before the season starts.No need to trade away anymore Aces to fill a King hole. By that I mean we do not need to give away our high end talent for a power play defenseman. Play a Ace on the point. Lets all breath. Reflect. Evaluate our team and then see where we are at the 20 game mark. Its going to take patience and commitment from players, coaches and management early before we know if what we have is a team or a handful of contracts. Lets hope its a team.

  35. Lowetide says:

    sumaclab:
    Lowetide I am cautiously optimistic looking at this teams 50 man roster.I would like Chia to breath andtake a wait and see attitude in the next while. Opportunities like the Maroon trade will come along before the season starts.No needto trade away anymore Aces to fill a King hole. By that I mean we do not need to give away our high end talent for a power play defenseman. Play a Ace on the point. Lets all breath. Reflect. Evaluate our team and then see where we are at the 20 game mark. Its goingto take patience and commitment from players, coaches and management early before we know if what we have is a team or a handful of contracts. Lets hope its a team.

    Yes, I agree. No need to weaken the forward group even more. I do think there are things he needs to look at before opening night.

  36. Richard S.S. says:

    PaperKurtRussell,

    Yak’s injury, or a clumsy accident? You accidentally or intentionally take and slip your leg behind a person, then sweep your arm across his body pulling him over your leg. If as little as heel-on-heel/skate-on-skate occurs a spill results. If an off-balanced fall occurs a significant injury might result. It’s was seem as Yak’s fault. The fact that an impatient Ref did that to an exuberant Yakupov with an annoyance gesture is not material. It’s Yak’s fault, another in a series of many. Some blame the Ref, and some blame Yak. That’s how I see it.

  37. Johnny skid says:

    Pouzar: It’s Eberle’s fault.

    Just wait for it.

    wow your eberle hurt is priceless.

  38. Lowetide says:

    StixMalone:
    Just wondering why Puljujarvi isn’t signed yet? You think it’s got to be a standard ELC…..

    The contract pretty much writes itself, but there are some things to negotiate—including where he might play next season. I am sure the deal will be announced in the next while.

  39. Richard S.S. says:

    StixMalone,

    When your GM’s not doing the “housework”, especially when it’s “housework” time , maybe it’s time to think he’s busy doing something else.

  40. Pouzar says:

    Johnny skid: wow your eberle hurt is priceless.

    I cheer for the Oilers and am a fan of guys who actually produce.

    You?

  41. Johnny skid says:

    Pouzar: I cheer for the Oilers and am a fan of guys who actually produce.

    You?

    i’m no different than you in that respect. huge fan of eberle among others. i also enjoy your comments and was just trying to make a point with my comment.

  42. Water Fire says:

    I think it’s time to trade Nurse for Trouba. I’m bored.

    And it would be a really good trade fitting needs both ways. The Oilers get the better player, the Jets a left side cheaper quality player. Their left side is old, Morrisey the best LH prospect and he’s not stellar as far as I know at this point.

    They can only afford Trouba if they unload Myers because of internal budget. They are 2.6M over last year’s with 4 players to sign including Trouba. Lots of RFA’s coming up over the next few years.

    Do it while Lowe is at the lake and ask for forgiveness later.

  43. OilClog says:

    Yak a date with Gary Roberts?

    The kid is built like a brick house, people don’t go see Gary in the summer for the mental side.

    Yak’s date should be with Adam Oates, if assigning hockey specialists is the new flavour.

    Maroon should be visiting Roberts land.

    Send Ebs to where ever back checking is a summer pass time, maybe switch his number with Conor’s in Messiers phone. “Hey Jordan! You gotta come see this, albertan back checking!”

    Nuge needs a Himalayan hike and spirit journey.

  44. spoiler says:

    Water Fire,

    I’d rather have Myers… he’s been in my sights since the Trouba troubles.

    Doubt the Jets go that route, since these are the cheap years of the Myers contract, but if I was GM I would be encouraging Chevy to do dat deal.

  45. Diesel says:

    Lowetide: The contract pretty much writes itself, but there are some things to negotiate—including where he might play next season. I am sure the deal will be announced in the next while.

    Stauffer said today “it would not surprise” him if it got done in the next two weeks.

  46. admiralmark says:

    Water Fire:
    I think it’s time to trade Nurse for Trouba. I’m bored.

    And it would be a really good trade fitting needs both ways. The Oilers get the better player, the Jets a left side cheaper quality player. Their left side is old, Morrisey the best LH prospect and he’s not stellar as far as I know at this point.

    They can only afford Trouba if they unload Myers because of internal budget. They are 2.6M over last year’s with 4 players to sign including Trouba. Lots of RFA’s coming up over the next few years.

    Do it while Lowe is at the lake and ask for forgiveness later.

    A year ago Trouba’s camp was saying they wanted a long term $7 mill/yr contract. I would assume that # is lowered in relation to his lesser campaign then the year before, but by how much? And do you still believe in this player for that range of price point? I cant say I have a strong opinion either way, but there are some uncertainties with this player.

  47. Pouzar says:

    spoiler: I’d rather have Myers</blockquote

    +1

  48. Lowetide says:

    Diesel: Stauffer said today “it would not surprise” him if it got done in the next two weeks.

    Makes sense. My conversations with Tom Lynn lead me to believe there are clear guidelines for entry-level deals, even at the high end.

  49. Big Dan says:

    Puljujarvi is going to win the first Calder trophy for the oiler organization. Book it.

    He is ready and will have mcdavid, nuge, or draisaitl as a centre. Set up for success.

  50. Ryan says:

    “You may be tempted to think that Nikitin’s (Barrie’s) point production means that he creates more goals than the opposition. That’s not really a safe assumption with defencemen, who get a lot of points simply by moving the puck on or jumping into the offensive zone. Of course, jumping into the offensive zone comes at a cost, one which isn’t reflected in points—sometimes the opposition goes the other way and scores. If a defenceman jumps into the offensive zone a lot, he might pile up touches (and points) while not actually creating a net benefit in terms of goals.”

  51. Diesel says:

    Lowetide: Makes sense. My conversations with Tom Lynn lead me to believe there are clear guidelines for entry-level deals, even at the high end.

    That ties in to his conversation with one of the Leafs radio guys. They were discussing Auston Matthews’ (not yet inked) ELC and some of the murmurs of worry regarding Lou’s approach to bonuses.

  52. Ryan says:

    Lowetide: Makes sense. My conversations with Tom Lynn lead me to believe there are clear guidelines for entry-level deals, even at the high end.

    Have you ever heard from Dellow? Like anything?

    If the Oilers hired him and aren’t listening to him…

  53. Water Fire says:

    spoiler:
    Water Fire,

    I’d rather have Myers… he’s been in my sights since the Trouba troubles.

    Doubt the Jets go that route, since these are the cheap years of the Myers contract, but if I was GM I would be encouraging Chevy to do dat deal.

    Myers age is the main problem for me.

  54. BONVIE says:

    Water Fire: Myers age is the main problem for me.

    Is he too young or too old for you?

  55. Water Fire says:

    admiralmark: A year ago Trouba’s camp was saying they wanted a long term $7 mill/yr contract. I would assume that # is lowered in relation to his lesser campaign then the year before, but by how much? And do you still believe in this player for that range of price point? I cant say I have a strong opinion either way, but there are some uncertainties with this player.

    It would have to be with a deal agreed upon, but if Larsson and Klef can garner over 4M I think Trouba could be paid 5M reasonably. He’s turning 23, and giving him term might solve the salary issue.

    To have 3 quality guys locked up at ~23 YO for term under 15M could be a tremoundous cap coup and make one heck of a D core. The only concern is Trouba has missed a lot of games till last season. Due dilligence on health would have ot be a part of the decision.

    Nobody knows but I think it would mean buying low, and near to the last he’ll be availalble. Assuming Chia didn’t hoop himself with Hall. The only saving grace is Trouba hasn’t established against tops, yet.

  56. Lowetide says:

    Ryan: Have you ever heard from Dellow? Like anything?

    If the Oilers hired him and aren’t listening to him…

    Tyler isn’t on twitter (that I know of) and that was my contact with him. I think there ARE things Edmonton has done that have an analytics feel (draft, others) but could not tell you if he is involved. One day maybe he writes a book. 🙂

  57. ed says:

    Just thought I’d chime in here with a Jet fan perspective since Trouba is coming up quite a bit. I think jet faithful would be very surprised to see him exchanged for Nurse. He’s penciled in beside Byfuglien for the coming year and he’s excelled when playing up the line-up in the past. The org appears to see him on par with the top young D in the game. IMO the conversation would start with Nugent -Hopkins which doesn’t really work for the oilers.

    If you’re looking to poach an underutilized RHD from the jets I’d see what it would take to get Paul Postma. He’s had some bad luck on the injury side of things but he’s got all the tools. He outplayed Zach Redmond when they were both in the org together. His numbers have always looked pretty good but there hasn’t been much opportunity. Anyway, I like the player and think he’d be a good fit for the oilers.

    Thanks for the forum LT! Now back to lurking…

  58. G Money says:

    ed,

    Since I’ve got this funky new QoC tool up and running, I ran Postma (I have no memory of his playing at all). Small minutes last year so some caution is warranted with these numbers, but in limited minutes, he did put up some decent numbers.

    I’d read this to say he’s an excellent third pairing RHD, but he can be effective on the second pairing too. In limited minutes against top comp, he didn’t get his head kicked in, not at all.

    Possible value pick there.

    Thanks Ed, good info!

    **** Postma, EVTOI = 278:51 ****
    Top Comp TOI= 22% CF ( 61, 61) 50.0% CF%Rel -1.4% CF/60 60 CA/60 60 DFF ( 46, 52) 47.2% DFF%Rel -4.3% DFF/60 45 DFA/60 50
    Muddle TOI= 41% CF ( 115, 95) 54.8% CF%Rel 3.8% CF/60 60 CA/60 50 DFF ( 61, 61) 50.0% DFF%Rel -1.4% DFF/60 32 DFA/60 32
    Dregs TOI= 37% CF ( 94, 75) 55.6% CF%Rel 4.6% CF/60 55 CA/60 44 DFF ( 75, 43) 63.4% DFF%Rel 13.1% DFF/60 44 DFA/60 25

  59. AsiaOil says:

    I was wondering when you would finally realize this 🙂

    Pouzar: It’s Eberle’s fault.

  60. G Money says:

    You know this fancy new tool for QoC? It does a massive amount of data wrangling and then a massive amount of computation to spit out the numbers. I generate shift codes tracking every second on the ice for every player, and then combine those to figure out who is on the ice together, and for how long.

    For all the heavy duty algorithmic complexity under the hood, you know what is causing the most bugs?

    GODDAMN JERSEY NUMBERS AND POSITION CODES, THAT’S WHAT.

    Late yesterday, I discovered that Fayne and Sekera had oddly bloated CF/CA numbers. The only ones on the team that did.

    Why? Why only them? Must be because they’re partners, right?

    No. No no no. It’s because they are the only players on the team with jersey numbers with single digits, and it caused odd search results in my ‘players on ice’ function at random times. (Well not random, just occasionally if the right circumstances occurred).

    Today I ran the numbers for the entire Oilers team, and there are four players who are getting zero results. Just tracked it down. The reason? Position codes.

    In the old gamesheets (which I have to use to get the players on ice because the new game sheets don’t have them), players keep the position code they are assigned when they come into the league. So Jordan Eberle for example is listed as 14C on all the old style NHL roster sheets and gamesheets.

    In the new gamesheet NHL data feed (which I’m using for this new database feed), the roster data lists Eberle’s position correctly, so he shows as 14R.

    Unfortunately, when my code looks to match players on ice, it searches for 14R based on the new gamesheet roster, while it’s searching the old game sheets that show him as 14C.

    So no match. So zero data.

    NHL data: it’s not what’s for breakfast, it’s what comes out of you several hours after you eat breakfast.

  61. BONVIE says:

    But who’s better Myers or Trouba?
    G Money,

  62. Lowetide says:

    ed:
    Just thought I’d chime in here with a Jet fan perspective since Trouba is coming up quite a bit. I think jet faithful would be very surprised to see him exchanged for Nurse. He’s penciled in beside Byfuglien for the coming year and he’s excelled when playing up the line-up in the past. The org appears to see him on par with the top young D in the game. IMO the conversation would start with Nugent -Hopkins which doesn’t really work for the oilers.

    If you’re looking to poach an underutilized RHD from the jets I’d see what it would take to get Paul Postma. He’s had some bad luck on the injury side of things but he’s got all the tools. He outplayed Zach Redmond when they were both in the org together. His numbers have always looked pretty good but there hasn’t been much opportunity. Anyway, I like the player and think he’d be a good fit for the oilers.

    Thanks for the forum LT! Now back to lurking…

    Thanks, Ed. I think the Jets have established they have a pretty good value on their players, tend to agree with your take.

  63. supernova says:

    G Money:
    You know this fancy new tool for QoC?It does a massive amount of data wrangling and then a massive amount of computation to spit out the numbers.I generate shift codes tracking every second on the ice for every player, and then combine those to figure out who is on the ice together, and for how long.

    For all the heavy duty algorithmic complexity under the hood, you know what is causing the most bugs?

    GODDAMN JERSEY NUMBERS AND POSITION CODES, THAT’S WHAT.

    Late yesterday, I discovered that Fayne and Sekera had oddly bloated CF/CA numbers. The only ones on the team that did.

    Why?Why only them? Must be because they’re partners, right?

    No.No no no.It’s because they are the only players on the team with jersey numbers with single digits, and it caused odd search results in my ‘players on ice’ function at random times.(Well not random, just occasionally if the right circumstances occurred).

    Today I ran the numbers for the entire Oilers team, and there are four players who are getting zero results.Just tracked it down. The reason?Position codes.

    In the old gamesheets (which I have to use to get the players on ice because the new game sheets don’t have them), players keep the position code they are assigned when they come into the league.So Jordan Eberle for example is listed as 14C on all the old style NHL roster sheets and gamesheets.

    In the new gamesheet NHL data feed (which I’m using for this new database feed), the roster data lists Eberle’s position correctly, so he shows as 14R.

    Unfortunately, when my code looks to match players on ice, it searches for 14R based on the new gamesheet roster, while it’s searching the old game sheets that show him as 14C.

    So no match.So zero data.

    NHL data: it’s not what’s for breakfast, it’s what comes out of you several hours after you eat breakfast.

    G Money,

    Wow G this has to be infuriating.

    Did LT name this post after you ?

    Thank you for all your work

  64. supernova says:

    G Money:
    ed,

    Since I’ve got this funky new QoC tool up and running, I ran Postma (I have no memory of his playing at all).Small minutes last year so some caution is warranted with these numbers, but in limited minutes, he did put up some decent numbers.

    I’d read this to say he’s an excellent third pairing RHD, but he can be effective on the second pairing too.In limited minutes against top comp, he didn’t get his head kicked in, not at all.

    Possible value pick there.

    Thanks Ed, good info!

    **** Postma, EVTOI = 278:51 ****Top Comp TOI= 22% CF (61,61)50.0%CF%Rel-1.4% CF/60 60 CA/60 60 DFF (46,52)47.2%DFF%Rel-4.3% DFF/60 45 DFA/60 50Muddle TOI= 41% CF ( 115,95)54.8%CF%Rel 3.8% CF/60 60 CA/60 50 DFF (61,61)50.0%DFF%Rel-1.4% DFF/60 32 DFA/60 32 Dregs TOI= 37% CF (94,75)55.6%CF%Rel 4.6% CF/60 55 CA/60 44 DFF (75,43)63.4%DFF%Rel13.1% DFF/60 44 DFA/60 25

    G Money,

    ed,

    Bad joke alert.

    Does Postma go on strike with Canada Postal workers due to high correlation?

    End of bad joke

  65. G Money says:

    supernova,

    Ha ha, I got “Excitable Boy” which works (but not sure if that refers to me or to LT), but Madman Across the Water *definitely* works!

  66. G Money says:

    BONVIE,

    Hmm, you know, as valuable as I believe this tool is, I still would be a little cautious in using it as a “who’s better” tool.

    That kind of analysis should be more of the kind of multi-factor look that e.g. Woodguy has been using to assess D. This tool makes it a whole lot easier to be thorough, but thorough still must you be!

    And contrary to what folks think about how an analytical process works, ideally you want to factor scouting into the assessment as much as you can … it’s just that we don’t typically have much visual in our memory of most players on other teams. In my case, I have never watched a game and explicitly put the spotlight (where I follow only that player) on either Trouba or Myers, so fancystats is what I gots.

    The program output is posted below. My interpretation:

    – Myers has been facing more top comp than has Trouba

    – Both hold their own shot metrics wise at higher levels

    – I’d say in both cases you’re looking at guys who *should* ideally be playing second pairing, but they’re not being shitkicked on a top pairing either

    – Interesting pattern to the danger rates as the comp changes. Myers actually has a few more points than does Trouba, but if you look at how the offense vs defense changes, Trouba is driving a little more offense as the competition gets easier. (38,42,46) vs (36,36,42).

    – Conversely, they are pretty close to even on danger suppression, I’d give the edge to Trouba.

    If I had to pick just based on this data (I wouldn’t, but if I had to), and ignoring cap hit etc., I would give the overall edge to Trouba. When you factor in age, I’d give a much bigger edge to Trouba.

    Bear in mind, though, that this is all even strength stuff, and the Oilers in particular need help on the PP. That’s where my scouting effort would go – if there’s a big edge to one guy in terms of being able on the PP to move the puck, play the point, and provide a cannon, I’d probably go with that guy.

    Anyone who watches the Jets regularly have any thoughts? Does the analysis above hold some water, or do you think it is full o crap?

    **** Jacob Trouba, EVTOI = 1387:54 ****
    Top Comp TOI= 46% CF ( 567, 605) 48.4% CF%Rel -3.8% CF/60 53 CA/60 57 DFF ( 407, 386) 51.3% DFF%Rel 0.6% DFF/60 38 DFA/60 36
    Muddle TOI= 34% CF ( 455, 392) 53.7% CF%Rel 2.5% CF/60 58 CA/60 50 DFF ( 328, 283) 53.7% DFF%Rel 3.3% DFF/60 42 DFA/60 36
    Dregs TOI= 20% CF ( 286, 222) 56.3% CF%Rel 5.1% CF/60 61 CA/60 48 DFF ( 214, 152) 58.5% DFF%Rel 8.3% DFF/60 46 DFA/60 33

    **** Tyler Myers, EVTOI = 1235:56 ****
    Top Comp TOI= 52% CF ( 571, 590) 49.2% CF%Rel -3.5% CF/60 53 CA/60 55 DFF ( 386, 416) 48.2% DFF%Rel -2.9% DFF/60 36 DFA/60 39
    Muddle TOI= 31% CF ( 366, 322) 53.2% CF%Rel 1.3% CF/60 57 CA/60 50 DFF ( 231, 242) 48.8% DFF%Rel -2.0% DFF/60 36 DFA/60 37
    Dregs TOI= 17% CF ( 204, 145) 58.5% CF%Rel 6.8% CF/60 59 CA/60 42 DFF ( 143, 112) 56.2% DFF%Rel 5.9% DFF/60 42 DFA/60 32

  67. hags9k says:

    Thanks G for all that work. I’d agree by eye Trouba is more valuable due to age and adding more of an offensive element than TM.

    Dubnyk would agree. I can’t think about Trouba without thinking about that goal against and how it set such a negative tone to start that year.

  68. spoiler says:

    G Money,

    Is there a TOI breakdown by band?

  69. Woodguy says:

    spoiler:
    G Money,

    Is there a TOI breakdown by band?

    First number.

    G’s been expressing it as a %

    Myers (from above)
    52% vs best
    31% vs muddle
    17 % vs dregs

    keep in mind we are going to tighten up the list of best

    we are also going to expand the list of dregs as you need to include the ones who play 9 games and get 9 min/game as that TOI adds up.

    h/t to poster Deano who mentioned expanding the dregs list to us

    Was on the list but he spotted it too.

  70. russ99 says:

    Puljujarvi is going to play 10 games in Edmonton vs. elite competition and on North American ice for the first time and look lost, then will be sent to the AHL like we should have done in the first place.

    Book it!

    Also Draisaitl needs a driver to be effective in his vital second adjustment year, so it makes no sense for him to center the third line with lesser/inexperienced wingers, unless we don’t want to see the same or better numbers this year.

    Lucic – McDavid – Draisaitl
    Pouliot – RNH – Eberle
    Maroon – Letestu – Kassian
    Pakarinen – Lander – Yakupov

  71. Big Dan says:

    russ99,

    I think draisaitl, if getting sheltered minutes on 3rd line, could become a driver. He is a good playmaker. Last year he let hall drive because hall loves carrying the puck.

    Draisaitl needs a sniper. He didn’t gel with yakupov because yak is all over the place. That’s why yak gelled with mcdavid. They’re both fast and if you go to the net, mcdavid will find you.

    I think puljujarvi will get points if he gets the rhd spot on the power play as a possible idea + the soft parade. Let’s say 20 points in the first 40 games. Then he will get promoted and really start impressing us (scoring at an eberle pace except bigger and better back checker).

    I’m usually not very optimistic about rookies, especially the oiler penchant of rushing kids. But I have a feeling this kid is something special.

  72. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: And yet, the young man was drafted out of Belarus (according to hockeydb).

    This database is wrong! 😉

  73. Water Fire says:

    BONVIE: Is he too young or too old for you?

    Old. He’ll be on the way out by the time they are really rolling. He’s also UFA in 3 meaning he may want a raise they’d have to consider in 2 and he’s already overpaid

  74. BONVIE says:

    Water Fire: Old. He’ll be on the way out by the time they are really rolling. He’s also UFA in 3 meaning he may want a raise they’d have to consider in 2 and he’s already overpaid

    Oh boy how many bad years are you predicting, Myers is only 26 now.

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