WAIVERS AND WAVERING

David Musil will be waiver eligible this fall and the Edmonton Oilers will have a choice to make: Risk losing him or keeping him on the roster as a 7D or 8D. This is exactly what happened last fall with Brandon Davidson, who is now (probably) one of the four most valuable defensemen in the organization. Will Musil see the same treatment this fall? My guess is no, but we will find out in due time.

Using the 23-man roster limit as our guide, there are pressure points emerging across the NHL in regard to waivers. Some teams will make trades before cutdown day, while others will risk losing players. Here is a quick guideline of the top players I see who could come available via waivers:

  1. R Ryan Sproul, Detroit Red Wings. The young man has been in the AHL for three years and is NHL-ready. I think he makes the big club based on numbers, but it is not a slam dunk and the Oilers should leap at the chance to add the puck mover.
  2. L Josh Leivo, Toronto Maple Leafs. I am probably wrong in my counting, but this is a fine prospect and there appears to be no room. If Toronto attempts to slide him through, Edmonton should grab him.
  3. L Teemu Pulkkinen, Detroit Red Wings. They will deal him long before he hits the waiver wire, but someone is heading out of Detroit based on their having 17 signed forwards at this time. A dandy young player.
  4. C Mark McNeill, Chicago Blackhawks. There are things about him (RH, two-way center, better speed than Lander) that would make him an attractive addition. I wonder if the Oilers end up trading for him if he doesn’t make the Hawks this fall.
  5. L Kenny Agostino, St. Louis Blues. The Oilers don’t specifically need a LW, but this guy is 24, scored 57 points in 65 AHL games and is 6.01, 200. I think Edmonton might look at him in an effort to shore up the depth forward spots.
  6. C Derek Grant, Buffalo Sabres. I didn’t understand why he hadn’t received a long NHL look—apparently Buffalo agreed. Grant went 27-18-45 in 36 AHL games last season, followed by 15 games where he averaged 11 minutes a night. I hope he hangs around for expansion. Make sure you are UFA next summer, young man.
  7. RD Connor Carrick, Toronto Maple Leafs. An interesting young player, I don’t think the Leafs have room for him. Has scored 45 points per 82 AHL games and may have enough to help an NHL team.
  8. RD Stefan Elliott, Nashville Predators. He is an RFA and is in the journeyman portion of his career, but Elliott posted 24 points in 84 games and is a righty—a player who could help the Oilers organization.
  9. RD Scott Mayfield, NY Islanders. Edmonton liked him in his draft year and Mayfield has shown some progress. He is a defensive defender with size, Edmonton has a bunch of those types—but Mayfield is a righty.

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207 Responses to "WAIVERS AND WAVERING"

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  1. mujidog says:

    It’s fun to daydream about (1) teams picking someone off waivers and (2) having that player contribute to his new team… but (1) very rarely happens and (2) almost never happens. Especially so if (3) you’re the Oilers.

  2. murphy says:

    Rundblad was bought out and is a UFA

  3. Lowetide says:

    murphy:
    Rundblad was bought out and is a UFA

    While also being listed on capfriendly. I will delete him but it is weird that he is still on the roster.

  4. murphy says:

    Yeah i dont know, i remember when he was bought out a few people on twitter (yost and others) talked about how hes still a good 3rd pairing/1st PP bet. Nhlnumbers shows him bought out. I would sign him to be #7.

  5. Younger Oil says:

    I’d jump on any of those RHD, any of them are better than Musil IMO.

  6. G Money says:

    The only player that played enough for the WoodMoney(tm) numbers to have a say is Pulkkinen (and even then, barely), but if the Oilers can get him, boy they should grab him quick.

    He looks like he’s headed for around 15 goals a year despite playing only 10 minutes a night, and his possession numbers as a third/fourth liner (i.e. against Muddle/Dregs) are stellar.

    Apparently, Korpikoski spelled backwards is Pulkkinen. Who knew?

  7. digger50 says:

    Great info. Perhaps a good reason to keep some roster spots open? However if there really is someone of high potential available a trade would be better just to ensure success.

    In regards to waiver wire, can anyone remind me how the order is determined on which team gets first crack to pick up waived players?

  8. "Steve Smith" says:

    mujidog,

    Since you said “almost never” rather than “never”, Curtis Glencross doesn’t disprove your point, but that was a hell of a spring he had for us. I wanted the Oilers to make the playoffs just so he’s reach the games played threshold to keep his free agency restricted.

  9. Richard S.S. says:

    I like the George McPhee signing as GM in Las Vegas. As Eastern GMs now Western GMs he has some things in common with Peter Chiarelli, perhaps more than we could know.

    Ryan Sproul RHD (23) 6’3″ 205 has good – very good numbers.
    Joshua Leivo RHLW (23) 6’2″ 195 has very good numbers, why not keep him?
    Teemu Pulkkinen LHRW (21) 5’9″ 177 has very good numbers but too small?
    Mark McNeill RHC (23) 6’2″ 212 has very good numbers.
    Kenny Agostino LHLW (24) 6’1″ 200 has very good numbers.
    Derek Grant LHC (26) 6’3″ 202 has good numbers.
    Connor Carrick RHD (22) 5’10” 191 has good – very good numbers despite size.
    ??? David Rundblad RHD (25) 6’2″ 187 has good numbers. Possibly bought out and a Free Agent.
    Stefan Elliott Rhd (25) 6’1″ 190 has good numbers.
    Scott Mayfield, RHD (23) 6’4″225 has good numbers.

    I can see going after Ryan Sproul and Joshua Leivo, but so should everyone else.

  10. Richard S.S. says:

    G Money,

    Is there a WoodMoney site with pay window only access? Of not, hint.

  11. G Money says:

    Richard S.S.,

    🙂 WG and I are working on the next version of the WM stats. Still some blacktop to go although it is looking damn good even at this point.

    Our goal by the end of summer is to have it available publicly, and for free!

    And by the way, many thanks to all the ‘gathered voices’ here for the questions and the feedback, we did incorporate some of the thought processes to help with the refinement. You guys rock!

  12. G Money says:

    Also, we are working on separate articles, but both WG and I will be tackling some of the questions around the Oilers using that data.

    Looking specifically at Larsson, the WoodMoney’s give us a much better picture of his performance against top comp. Next step is to suss out the true effect of his zone starts, and on that topic I have much data to bring to bear as well.

    I am hoping the news will be good (but as always, make it a point to enter into the analysis process with the mindset of going where the data leads, and not trying to make the data lead where I wish it to go).

  13. teddyturnbuckle says:

    Zero chance anyone takes Musil on waivers. Every team has 4 guys like him and Tyler Pitlick.

  14. stush18 says:

    From last thread

    FIFTHCARTEL says:
    July 13, 2016 at 4:45 pm
    I was a pretty big fan of Chiarelli and McLellan mainly in that they weren’t MacTavish/Lowe, but seeing those two still involved in hockey decision’s is pretty disappointing.
    Chiarelli deserves every bit of criticism he gets. He didn’t learn much from the Seguin/Wheeler trades, and decided not to use alternate methods of acquiring defensemen. Wildly overpaying for Griffin Reinhart and Adam Larsson, while making several poor judgments in Korpikoski, Marincin, Gustavsson and that’s not even mentioning his unnecessary love for size.
    There’s plenty evidence to suggest Chiarelli is a poor talent evaluator and a poor negotiator. The GR and Hall trades are enough for me to see Chiarelli as a poor GM.
    (Quote) (Reply)

    Can anyone here tell me what alternate methods of acquiring dmen chiarelli had at his disposal?

    Let’s go through a timeline shall we? Apologies as this is lengthy.

    On April 24th, 2015, chiarelli was hired. He then hired Todd mclellan on May 19th. Todd mclellan, who studied under Babcock, who is universally described as an ELITE coach. You’re lying if you didn’t think he was an unreal coach while he was in San Jose. Many here claimed he was the reason for there success.

    Heading into the draft weekend, chiarelli had a depth chart of

    Ference
    Nikitin
    Klefbom
    Fayne
    Schultz
    Marincin
    Musil
    Nurse
    Davidson
    Simpson
    Oesterle
    Simpson

    I may be forgetting someone in the AHL, but you get the picture.

    Marincin was RFA, and had a sour relationship with the oilers. Could it have been salvaged? Possibly. Alas he was moved out.

    Ference, nikitin, Schultz were poor dmen, and fayne is very limited. We had an inexperienced klefbom, and an unproven nurse. Musil was probably the closet thing to NHL ready at this point.

    Please do not try and convince yourself Davidson was ready. I will pay a woodguy for proof of anyone claiming they knew at this draft that Davidson would be top six material.

    So chiarelli did what he could. He tried to acquire Hamilton, and Boston chose to trade him to Calgary for a LESSER package. Chiarelli then traded for a dman (Reinhart) who outplayed nurse this year. Let me ask you, would you have traded Darnell nurse at that draft for a 16th and 33rd? Because I wouldn’t, and he was outplayed by Reinhart according to most advanced metrics.

    “Chia had other options! Reinhart was an overpay!”. Using games played measure for draft picks, the value comes out equal. If we can agree he outplayed nurse, and that package wouldn’t be enough for nurse, then it looks like a good deal. And even if it was an slight overpay, we had to do something. Look at that depth. It was the worst in hockey. Also, the man who endorsed the trade (bob green) has absolutely been killing his amateur drafts and procurements. So when he thinks someone is a good player, I agree.

    Chiarelli had no idea he could sign sekera. The talking day starts after the draft. Saying he knew he could sign him is bullshit, and not true. The only deal to be made for Reinhart was that day, at the draft, because the islanders valued Barzal.

    He also acquired a number six dman by the the wood-money metric in gryba, and grabbed a top 30 goalie in talbot for little picks.

    Heading into free agency he signed the best availible dman in sekera, and a good centre in letestu. He also dealt Gordon for korpi. Gordon was arguably a worse player than korpi was this year, and he costs more. We pay a small cap penalty now because of that move, although we actually save money on next years roster, which helps with our bonus issues.

    Heading into the season, with another new coach, talbot floundered badly to start, and we were beset upon with injuries. Mcdavid, nuge, klefbom, eberle, pouliot all missed significant time with injuries. The team struggled all year, and we finished the year second last.

    Oh by the way, here’s our finishes the last five years or so.

    2011-12 (29th)
    2012-13 (24th)-lockout year
    2013-14 (28th)
    2014-15 (28th)
    2015-16 (29th)

    So once again out team floundered, after only adding to the defense, and we headed into this years draft looking for a RH dman.

    We heard rumours of subban, who’s trade and AAV price would have completely devastated this team. We heard rumours of Barrie, who is a remarkable offensive dman, but shady defensively. The same can be said of shattenkirk, and dumba. All of these dmen being offered for nuge +.

    After chiarelli backed out of a trade for Hamilton, when he found out that JP was falling to us, we were left looking for a dman still.

    Chiarelli then talked to demers and lucic after the draft, and this is where I will put in my opinion. Chiarelli knew lucic would sign, and that demers would not. Many media outlets tweeted out the oilers were going to sign him. The oilers needed to make a move.

    Enter the hall trade. Apparently we traded hall for a wooden bucket that can’t skate looking at the comparisons around here, so let’s set it straight.

    Larsson is a 23 yr old RH dman who just finished a year playing the TOUGHEST COMP and MOST SEVERE ZONE STARTS in the league, and on the 2nd worst possession team, and he faired average. Some would say he struggled a bit. At 23.

    Now I will admit this is an overpayment.

    But can any poster here point to a deal and say chiarelli should have made? Can we actually find dmen that were availible for anything less than a massive overpayment?. Can anyone actually present evidence that chiarelli is incompetent and is not actively trying to fix the right side? Since we hired chiarelli, we have been rumoured to be in on (off the top of my head)

    Subban (ask was too much)
    Hamilton (Boston chose to spite us)
    Barrie (ask is too much/he wants too much money)
    Dumba(ask is too much)
    Sekera(acquired)
    Demers(assuming dollars were too much/didn’t wanna sign)
    Shattenkirk (refused to sign extension)
    Trouba(dollars too much)
    Vatanen (fell through?)
    Brodin

    Despite chiarelli never tipping his hand, we see constant chatter about the oilers asking about certain dmen. This can’t help negotiations and everyone and their dog knows we need dmen, specifically RH dmen.

    All of This is ignoring his contracts given to talbot, klefbom, letestu, Davidson and lucic, all of which look either good or very good.

    This is ignoring his underpayment for maroon and kassian.

    LT and others have recently been saying this could be Chias last year if the oilers flounder, based off his overpayments. Some posters here believe he is wholly incompetent and has wrecked this team.

    The list of significant oilers players out?
    Hall
    Purcell
    Schultz
    Gordon
    Marincin
    Scrivens

    List off players chiarelli has acquired since starting barely a YEAR ago?
    Larsson
    Lucic
    Sekera
    Letesu
    Korp
    Maroon
    Kassian

    the amount of hate that chiarelli and Tmac receive is astounding. They have had this job for less than a year, instilled a work ethic into the players, began shoring up depth across the system, signed big name free agents that could have never signed here under previous management, signed smart long term deals with good young hockey players, and handled the media better than we’ve seen since before Tambo.

    so please everyone, go ahead and give up on chia. I can see the Edmonton blogging community turning already.

    I will be here, watching as this team fights for a playoff spot, under good management, with a team that is finally balanced and able to compete night in and night out.

  15. deankb says:

    stush18,

    Here freaking here!

    10 years of frustration is taking its toll on reason and intelligence…

  16. Yak Efron says:

    John Cena should host everything. Also half hour into espys and nary a mention of hockey.

  17. Lowetide says:

    stush18:

    so please everyone, go ahead and give up on chia.

    This is ridiculous, of course.

  18. marchmentsknee says:

    Yak Efron,

    the espy’s won’t mention hockey. espn has spent heavy money on nba and soccer. they floundering to stay relevant in the social media era.

  19. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    teddyturnbuckle:
    Zero chance anyone takes Musil on waivers.Every team has 4 guys like him and Tyler Pitlick.

    He’ll have training camp to prove he’s worth carrying as an 8th D for a longer trial

    It’s that time of year again: 😉


    DUCEY says:
    July 16, 2015 at 3:33 pm

    I don’t think Davidson gets claimed on waivers. There will be a 1/2 dozen of similar tweener type D on the wire.

  20. stush18 says:

    Lowetide: This is ridiculous, of course.

    That’s what you took from my post?

    I know you read the comments here. I directly quoted fifthcartel who actively believes chia is a poor gm, so I would assume that means he’s given up. Many people here have stated they’ve either lost faith, were apparently “always concerned”, or think the oilers are doomed to mediocrity because we traded one player.

    You yourself think this is Chias last year if the oilers fail to make playoffs.

    im trying to set people straight. Chiarelli has been active in trying to acquire basically every dman that has been Rumoured to be availible. He’s had acquired two young developing dmen, who are both likely to help this team next year, something those drafts picks still wouldn’t be doing.

    And we think he should be moved on from based off of whether or not the oilers make playoffs next year?

    I’m going to say it right now, I don’t think the oilers will make playoffs next year unless everything breaks right. The league is too tight. They will be in the wildcard race. It’ll take mental growth from the players to push them past their current limit.

    It’s a marathon, not a sprint. Just because the oilers are ten years behind in the race, doesn’t mean they should sprint ahead to try and catch up.

  21. Centre of attention says:

    Did anyone catch my even strength scoring stat I cherry picked earlier?

    Sekera had 15 even strength points last year playing with McDavid & Hall on his team. Both elite even strength scorers.

    Adam Larsson had 17 even strength points playing with the ghost of Patrik Elias. They were one of the worst even strength offensive teams in the league. Still, Larsson outscored Sekera even given the unfavorable circumstances of playing for New Jersey.

    There is definitely offensive upside in Larsson. Just you wait and see 🙂

    I think Anton Stralman might be a decent (best case scenario) comparable for Larsson. Stralman didn’t take that next step until he went to the Rangers and then he really emerged for Tampa, where his offense began to blossom.

    Fingers crossed Larsson takes that “Stralman” step with Edmonton, beginning this season. I’m hopeful, what about you guys?

  22. Lowetide says:

    stush18: That’s what you took from my post?

    When you say ‘so please everyone, go ahead and give up on chia’ it sounds like you are talking to all of us. So, yes, that is how I took it.

  23. stush18 says:

    Centre of attention:
    Did anyone catch my even strength scoring stat I cherry picked earlier?

    Sekera had 15 even strength points last year playing with McDavid & Hall on his team. Both elite even strength scorers.

    Adam Larsson had 17 even strength points play with the ghost of Patrik Elias. They were one of the worse even strength offensive teams in the league. Still, Larsson outscored Sekera even given the unfavorable circumstances of playing for New Jersey.

    There is definitely offensive upside in Larsson. Just you wait and see

    I think Anton Stralman might be a decent (best case scenario) comparable for Larsson. Stralman didn’t take that next step until he went to the Rangers and then he really emerged for Tampa, where his offense began to blossom.

    Fingers crossed Larsson takes that “Stralman” step with Edmonton, beginning this season. I’m hopeful, what about you guys?

    Ya I think he does well springing mcdavid. Offense goes to die in New Jersey, and he started every game in his own end against the best.

    I’m thinking Klef-Larsson gets more offensive time, simply because the other options, (sekera-fayne, Reinhart-Davidson) don’t provide enough offense.

  24. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention:
    Did anyone catch my even strength scoring stat I cherry picked earlier?

    Sekera had 15 even strength points last year playing with McDavid & Hall on his team. Both elite even strength scorers.

    Adam Larsson had 17 even strength points playing with the ghost of Patrik Elias. They were one of the worst even strength offensive teams in the league. Still, Larsson outscored Sekera even given the unfavorable circumstances of playing for New Jersey.

    There is definitely offensive upside in Larsson. Just you wait and see 🙂

    I think Anton Stralman might be a decent (best case scenario) comparable for Larsson. Stralman didn’t take that next step until he went to the Rangers and then he really emerged for Tampa, where his offense began to blossom.

    Fingers crossed Larsson takes that “Stralman” step with Edmonton, beginning this season. I’m hopeful, what about you guys?

    One thing I do believe, we have to see Larsson as an Oiler for half a season. He fits a need based on what we read, and he can do some things. Need to see him, the size, speed, coverage, for 40 games.

  25. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: One thing I do believe, we have to see Larsson as an Oiler for half a season. He fits a need based on what we read, and he can do some things. Need to see him, the size, speed, coverage, for 40 games.

    Agree, visual always helps. But that even-strength scoring number was shocking when I first saw it.

    Larsson the “defensive defenseman” would have lead our D-core in even strength scoring last season. The mind boggles.

    I admit Stralman is definitely a blue-sky comparable (admitted it in my original post) but Larsson has a story to tell and there is more involved than just defense.

  26. JDï™ says:

    RE music suggestions:

    Aldo Nova

    Corey Hart

    Toronto

    Helix

    Moxy

    Queen City Kids

    Kick Axe

    Krokus

  27. Gordies Elbow says:

    JDï™,

    Thread needs more Trooper:
    – 3 Dressed Up as a 9
    – All Day & All Night
    – Boys In The Bright White Sports Car
    – We’re Here for a Good Time

  28. JDï™ says:

    Gordies Elbow,

    You missed:

    Good ol’ General Hand Grenade

    Ridin’ in a motorcade

    Lookin’ at the mess he made

    And wonderin’ what it’s for.

  29. mujidog says:

    “Steve Smith”: games

    Ooooh. GlenX! Good one. I forgot about him. Man, he was good. I honestly think he played a major part in the strong finish that year. Can’t believe Lowe cheap’ed out and let him free (to Calgary no less).

  30. Ryan says:

    G Money:
    Also, we are working on separate articles, but both WG and I will be tackling some of the questions around the Oilers using that data.

    Looking specifically at Larsson, the WoodMoney’s give us a much better picture of his performance against top comp.Next step is to suss out the true effect of his zone starts, and on that topic I have much data to bring to bear as well.

    I am hoping the news will be good (but as always, make it a point to enter into the analysis process with the mindset of going where the data leads, and not trying to make the data lead where I wish it to go).

    One of my most pressing questions and traits that I value in NHL defensemen is their ability to transition the puck up the ice.

    In other words, can the defensemen make a tape to tape break out pass? Can they make stretch passes?

    These are things that I want to know.

    About Adam Larsson. About Tyson Barrie…

    Yet, I have no desire to spend hours watching old tape to find out.

    Mark Fayne? No, he relies on his partner.

    Justin Schultz? No, or ask Woodguy. 🙂

    Question. Are there any trackable stats that would correlate with a defensemen’s ability to make a breakout pass?

    While I was dreaming last night a few possibilities crossed my mind.

    1. Cf/60 greater than 44
    2. A2/A1 > 2
    3. P/60 > 1
    4. Analyzing some combination of stars relative to their most common d partner.

    Wouldn’t it be great if there was a single trackable marker or combination thereof that could predict players like Schultz or Fayne that heavily rely on their partner to move the puck out of the dzone?

    In Larsson’s case, if he can’t move the puck on his own, he’s not a #2.

    In Barrie’s case, if he’s a high end Schultz that can’t move the puck, but racks up points jumping into the play in the ozone, you sure as shit don’t want to trade the Nuge for him.

  31. Oilspill says:

    My dog could get 15 points with McDavid on his line. You don’t need to be elite to do it.

    Centre of attention:
    Did anyone catch my even strength scoring stat I cherry picked earlier?

    Sekera had 15 even strength points last year playing with McDavid & Hall on his team. Both elite even strength scorers.

    Adam Larsson had 17 even strength points playing with the ghost of Patrik Elias. They were one of the worst even strength offensive teams in the league. Still, Larsson outscored Sekera even given the unfavorable circumstances of playing for New Jersey.

    There is definitely offensive upside in Larsson. Just you wait and see

    I think Anton Stralman might be a decent (best case scenario) comparable for Larsson. Stralman didn’t take that next step until he went to the Rangers and then he really emerged for Tampa, where his offense began to blossom.

    Fingers crossed Larsson takes that “Stralman” step with Edmonton, beginning this season. I’m hopeful, what about you guys?

  32. G Money says:

    JDï™,

    LOL, as soon as I read it, I thought of Lowe as General Hand Grenade.

  33. Colieo87 says:

    Injuries are so part of today game. But with that said so is depth. New Blood. I hope this team stays competitive. And no death march by end of november. Gentlemen and ladies let’s just be fans of this great game. Follow your team and favorite players around the league. Thats my change this year. No more believing, wishing and hoping this team turns the cornor. Just sit by and check in to them from time to time.

  34. gnikkles says:

    stush18: That’s what you took from my post?

    im trying to set people straight. Chiarelli has been active in trying to acquire basically every dman that has been Rumoured to be availible. He’s had acquired two young developing dmen, who are both likely to help this team next year, something those drafts picks still wouldn’t be doing.

    stush18:

    It’s a marathon, not a sprint. Just because the oilers are ten years behind in the race, doesn’t mean they should sprint ahead to try and catch up.

    Yeah I think youre the one who needs to be “set straight” because you don’t make any sense despite typing 1000 words.

    In the same comment you state that the Reinhart and Larsson trades are good because they will be able to help next season and that the 16 and 32 picks that the Oil gave up wouldn’t be able to help for years.

    Then you say this is a marathon and not a sprint, which directly conflicts with trading those picks. Pretty much no one is even projecting Reinhart onto our roster next season, who even knows about the season after.

    As for trading Hall, don’t even get me started about how key he would be 3 years down the road (in his prime).

    Trust me, Chiarelli is treating this like a sprint instead of a marathon and that is a big issue. That’s why trying to defend his moves vs what his approach should be encounters such a disconnect in logic which is what your comments have clearly shown.

  35. Gordies Elbow says:

    JDï™,

    Awesome. Went to a concert that I didn’t want to go to at the Shaw (girlfriend wanted to see a band – Honeymoon Suite, circa 1989-90) and Trooper was the opening act.Trooper blew me away, and I’ve been to many concerts.

    Best opening performance I’ve ever seen – just about destroyed the stands in the Shaw. Opened with “Raise a Little Hell.” Stunning performance.

  36. G Money says:

    Ryan,

    Tough question. WheatNOil has been doing incredible work tracking zone exits by the defense. Really substantive data to roll into the mix, but as expected, it is grinding manual work.

    Maybe the most promising avenue might be combining the first and the last one you suggested. If you look at all F/D combinations, and look at CF/60 for each of those combos, you could very well tease out the good passers, if one or two particular D drive a consistently improved shot generation for a wide variety of forwards.

    I’d bet dollars to donuts you see that effect with Klefbom/Hall, cause I have a few different stats that show those guys are off the charts good when they are together. Not that that’s a relevant stat any more.

  37. Centre of attention says:

    Oilspill:
    My dog could get 15 points with McDavid on his line. You don’t need to be elite to do it.

    I think you missed the point of my post, but yes I agree McDavid spreads offense like some sort of wizard.

    What I’m trying to say is that Larsson has more offensive upside than a lot of people might realize. Especially with a change of scenery.

  38. Woodguy says:

    Ryan: One of my most pressing questions and traits that I value in NHL defensemen is their ability to transition the puck up the ice.

    In other words, can the defensemen make a tape to tape break out pass?Can they make stretch passes?

    These are things that I want to know.

    About Adam Larsson.About Tyson Barrie…

    Yet, I have no desire to spend hours watching old tape to find out.

    Mark Fayne?No, he relies on his partner.

    Justin Schultz?No, or ask Woodguy.🙂

    Question.Are there any trackable stats that would correlate with a defensemen’s ability to make a breakout pass?

    While I was dreaming last night a few possibilities crossed my mind.

    1. Cf/60 greater than 44
    2. A2/A1 > 2
    3. P/60 > 1
    4. Analyzing some combination of stars relative to their most common d partner.

    Wouldn’t it be great if there was a single trackable marker or combination thereof that could predict players like Schultz or Fayne that heavily rely on their partner to move the puck out of the dzone?

    In Larsson’s case, if he can’t move the puck on his own, he’s not a #2.

    In Barrie’s case, if he’s a high end Schultz that can’t move the puck, but racks up points jumping into the play in the ozone, you sure as shit don’t want to trade the Nuge for him.

    I would use Rel CF so you don’t miss good players on poor teams, but also use CF so you don’t miss good players on good teams.

    otherwise I agree with G.

  39. Ryan says:

    G Money:
    Ryan,

    Tough question.WheatNOil has been doing incredible work tracking zone exits by the defense.Really substantive data to roll into the mix, but as expected, it is grinding manual work.

    Maybe the most promising avenue might be combining the first and the last one you suggested.If you look at all F/D combinations, and look at CF/60 for each of those combos, you could very well tease out the good passers, if one or two particular D drive a consistently improved shot generation for a forward.

    I’d bet dollars to donuts you see that effect with Klefbom/Hall, cause I have a few different stats that show those guys are off the charts good when they are together.Not that that’s a relevant stat any more.

    It’s a tough question, but would be a valuable one to attempt to answer.

    I’m not as well acquainted with Wheatnoil’s data as I should be, but it would be nice to see if any of the favorable defensemen traits that he tracks relative to zone exits correlates strongly with stats that are already tracked.

    How valuable would it be to know that x defensemen not only rates well on the woodmoney ranking, but is also independent at moving the puck?

    i.e. Alex Petrovic?

    He’s a player of interest to me based on RHS, likely availability and other stats, yet I have never once noticed him in an actual hockey game.

    Is he a Laco Smid or can he transition the puck? I couldn’t tell you.

  40. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Centre of attention,

    Larsson also scored 19 ES points in only 64 games last season. These were both on the worst ES scoring team in the league in that timeframe. You just really, really hope most of what comes in the transition to Edmonton is good. Please Adam, score 35 points and hold a positive GF% playing over 23 minutes/night.

  41. Centre of attention says:

    G Money,

    Would there be any value in tracking pass completion % similar to football?

    I know, it would be INSANELY tedious work, but knowing a D-mans pass completion rate would be very good information.

    You could then theoretically break it down into different types of passes:

    1: D-to-D pass, simple and common. Still important if you want to beat a forcheck. If your D-to-D passes in your zone don’t complete often, you’re probably getting beat by the forcheck a lot and your corsi is probably bad right?

    2: D-to-Forward pass, more complicated and harder to complete. Very important for D to complete this pass, I would assume guys like Subban and Letang and Hedman complete better than 75% of their D-to-forward passes. A guy like Gudbranson might complete 25%.

    You could then even separate those into multi-zone pass completion rates to track who’s got the best stretch pass.

    Maybe I’m completely out to lunch but I would bet some teams track passing% as part of these “alternate” stat packages we always hear about, separate from what the league makes available.

    Todd McLellan has hinted his stat package looks way different and uses different terminology than what you’re average blogger is familiar with. Perhaps passing% is part of it?

  42. stush18 says:

    Lowetide: When you say ‘so please everyone, go ahead and give up on chia’ it sounds like you are talking to all of us. So, yes, that is how I took it.

    You cherry picked one sentence out of my entire post.

    Allow me to edit what I mean. Everyone who appears to have given up on chia, please go ahead and give up.

  43. JimmyV1965 says:

    stush18:
    From last thread

    FIFTHCARTEL says:
    July 13, 2016 at 4:45 pm
    I was a pretty big fan of Chiarelli and McLellan mainly in that they weren’t MacTavish/Lowe, but seeing those two still involved in hockey decision’s is pretty disappointing.
    Chiarelli deserves every bit of criticism he gets. He didn’t learn much from the Seguin/Wheeler trades, and decided not to use alternate methods of acquiring defensemen. Wildly overpaying for Griffin Reinhart and Adam Larsson, while making several poor judgments in Korpikoski, Marincin, Gustavsson and that’s not even mentioning his unnecessary love for size.
    There’s plenty evidence to suggest Chiarelli is a poor talent evaluator and a poor negotiator. The GR and Hall trades are enough for me to see Chiarelli as a poor GM. (Quote)(Reply)

    Can anyone here tell me what alternate methods of acquiring dmen chiarelli had at his disposal?

    Let’s go through a timeline shall we? Apologies as this is lengthy.

    On April 24th, 2015, chiarelli was hired. He then hired Todd mclellan on May 19th. Todd mclellan, who studied under Babcock, who is universally described as an ELITE coach. You’re lying if you didn’t think he was an unreal coach while he was in San Jose. Many here claimed he was the reason for there success.

    Heading into the draft weekend, chiarelli had a depth chart of

    Ference
    Nikitin
    Klefbom
    Fayne
    Schultz
    Marincin
    Musil
    Nurse
    Davidson
    Simpson
    Oesterle
    Simpson

    I may be forgetting someone in the AHL, but you get the picture.

    Marincin was RFA, and had a sour relationship with the oilers. Could it have been salvaged? Possibly. Alas he was moved out.

    Ference, nikitin, Schultz were poor dmen, and fayne is very limited. We had an inexperienced klefbom, and an unproven nurse. Musil was probably the closet thing to NHL ready at this point.

    Please do not try and convince yourself Davidson was ready. I will pay a woodguy for proof of anyone claiming they knew at this draft that Davidson would be top six material.

    So chiarelli did what he could. He tried to acquire Hamilton, and Boston chose to trade him to Calgary for a LESSER package. Chiarelli then traded for a dman (Reinhart) who outplayed nurse this year. Let me ask you, would you have traded Darnell nurse at that draft for a 16th and 33rd? Because I wouldn’t, and he was outplayed by Reinhart according to most advanced metrics.

    “Chia had other options! Reinhart was an overpay!”. Using games played measure for draft picks, the value comes out equal. If we can agree he outplayed nurse, and that package wouldn’t be enough for nurse, then it looks like a good deal. And even if it was an slight overpay, we had to do something. Look at that depth. It was the worst in hockey. Also, the man who endorsed the trade (bob green) has absolutely been killing his amateur drafts and procurements. So when he thinks someone is a good player, I agree.

    Chiarelli had no idea he could sign sekera. The talking day starts after the draft. Saying he knew he could sign him is bullshit, and not true. The only deal to be made for Reinhart was that day, at the draft, because the islanders valued Barzal.

    He also acquired a number six dman by the the wood-money metric in gryba, and grabbed a top 30 goalie in talbot for little picks.

    Heading into free agency he signed the best availible dman in sekera, and a good centre in letestu. He also dealt Gordon for korpi. Gordon was arguably a worse player than korpi was this year, and he costs more. We pay a small cap penalty now because of that move, although we actually save money on next years roster, which helps with our bonus issues.

    Heading into the season, with another new coach, talbot floundered badly to start, and we were beset upon with injuries. Mcdavid, nuge, klefbom, eberle, pouliot all missed significant time with injuries. The team struggled all year, and we finished the year second last.

    Oh by the way, here’s our finishes the last five years or so.

    2011-12 (29th)
    2012-13 (24th)-lockout year
    2013-14 (28th)
    2014-15 (28th)
    2015-16 (29th)

    So once again out team floundered, after only adding to the defense, and we headed into this years draft looking for a RH dman.

    We heard rumours of subban, who’s trade and AAV price would have completely devastated this team. We heard rumours of Barrie, who is a remarkable offensive dman, but shady defensively. The same can be said of shattenkirk, and dumba. All of these dmen being offered for nuge +.

    After chiarelli backed out of a trade for Hamilton, when he found out that JP was falling to us, we were left looking for a dman still.

    Chiarelli then talked to demers and lucic after the draft, and this is where I will put in my opinion. Chiarelli knew lucic would sign, and that demers would not. Many media outlets tweeted out the oilers were going to sign him. The oilers needed to make a move.

    Enter the hall trade. Apparently we traded hall for a wooden bucket that can’t skate looking at the comparisons around here, so let’s set it straight.

    Larsson is a 23 yr old RH dman who just finished a year playing the TOUGHEST COMP and MOST SEVERE ZONE STARTS in the league, and on the 2nd worst possession team, and he faired average. Some would say he struggled a bit. At 23.

    Now I will admit this is an overpayment.

    But can any poster here point to a deal and say chiarelli should have made? Can we actually find dmen that were availible for anything less than a massive overpayment?. Can anyone actually present evidence that chiarelli is incompetent and is not actively trying to fix the right side? Since we hired chiarelli, we have been rumoured to be in on (off the top of my head)

    Subban (ask was too much)
    Hamilton (Boston chose to spite us)
    Barrie (ask is too much/he wants too much money)
    Dumba(ask is too much)
    Sekera(acquired)
    Demers(assuming dollars were too much/didn’t wanna sign)
    Shattenkirk (refused to sign extension)
    Trouba(dollars too much)
    Vatanen (fell through?)
    Brodin

    Despite chiarelli never tipping his hand, we see constant chatter about the oilers asking about certain dmen. This can’t help negotiations and everyone and their dog knows we need dmen, specifically RH dmen.

    All of This is ignoring his contracts given to talbot, klefbom, letestu, Davidson and lucic, all of which look either good or very good.

    This is ignoring his underpayment for maroon and kassian.

    LT and others have recently been saying this could be Chias last year if the oilers flounder, based off his overpayments. Some posters here believe he is wholly incompetent and has wrecked this team.

    The list of significant oilers players out?
    Hall
    Purcell
    Schultz
    Gordon
    Marincin
    Scrivens

    List off players chiarelli has acquired since starting barely a YEAR ago?
    Larsson
    Lucic
    Sekera
    Letesu
    Korp
    Maroon
    Kassian

    the amount of hate that chiarelli and Tmac receive is astounding. They have had this job for less than a year, instilled a work ethic into the players, began shoring up depth across the system, signed big name free agents that could have never signed here under previous management, signed smart long term deals with good young hockey players, and handled the media better than we’ve seen since before Tambo.

    so please everyone, go ahead and give up on chia. I can see the Edmonton blogging community turning already.

    I will be here, watching as this team fights for a playoff spot, under good management, with a team that is finally balanced and able to compete night in and night out.

    Love the passion for Chia, but it’s a bit misplaced. Chia was brought in to turn around the team. There needs to be significant improvement this year. If not, there will be questions. I largely agree with everything you say. The worst trade prior to Hall was Reinhart and I really don’t have a big issue with it. But the Hall trade was a gross overpayment and it should raise red flags, especially given his previous history.

    Having said that, I think Chia has a real vision for building the team and he’s achieved a great deal of this already. His execution is questionable though. I honestly think the Oilers will be bigger and tougher to play against this year and we do have a better chance at making the playoffs.

    If we fail to make the playoffs and if Larsson ends up being Mark Fayne 2, the questions will become a roar. At this point, the only guy I have compete confidence in is Bob Green.

  44. Centre of attention says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Centre of attention,

    Larsson also scored 19 ES points in only 64 games last season. These were both on the worst ES scoring team in the league in that timeframe. You just really, really hope most of what comes in the transition to Edmonton is good. Please Adam, score 35 points and hold a positive GF% playing over 23 minutes/night.

    I think Larsson’s D-game might diminish but his offensive game will increase significantly.

    A lot depends on how the coach uses him though, maybe we are reading too much into the possibility that his usage changes.

    Maybe Todd banishes Larsson to the bowls of hell and his zone starts remain the same, in an effort to give Nurse & the gang the softs.

    Like LT said in his own wise and prophetic way: Lets all just wait and see. 😉

  45. LadiesloveSmid says:

    GMoney,

    whenever you have the time, I have some more defencemen I am curious about if you could run their numbers.

    Colin Miller, Liles, Demelo(if he meets the TOI cut), Chris Wideman

  46. Ryan says:

    Centre of attention,

    You’re on the right initial track, but the next step would be to find predictive markers with available trackable stats so that you wouldn’t need to do that type of leg work.

    The holy grail of advanced stats would be to have predictive ability if I gave you a defensemen’s fancies and to have you be able to reliably predict if he can move the puck or not.

  47. stush18 says:

    gnikkles:
    Yeah I think youre the one who needs to be “set straight” because you don’t make any sense despite typing 1000 words.

    In the same comment you state that the Reinhart and Larsson trades are good because they will be able to help next season and that the 16 and 32 picks that the Oil gave up wouldn’t be able to help for years.

    Then you say this is a marathon and not a sprint, which directly conflicts with trading those picks. Pretty much no one is even projecting Reinhart onto our roster next season, who even knows about the season after.

    As for trading Hall, don’t even get me started about how key he would be 3 years down the road (in his prime).

    Trust me, Chiarelli is treating this like a sprint instead of a marathon and that is a big issue. That’s why trying to defend his moves vs what his approach should be encounters such a disconnect in logic which is what your comments have clearly shown.

    Fair enough. I was getting randy by the end.

    No one projecting Reinhart onto the roster? Have you read wood moneys work? Basically every number is pointing to Reinhart being the best avilible option for #6 dman, possibly higher. Def better than nurse.

    Can you please tell me what his approach should be? This was the point I was going to make, and admittedly I went off on a rant.

    Please list options availible. I’m going to assume chia isn’t an idiot and didn’t trade hall for the first dman availible.

    I think saying I make zero sense is a little disingenuous.

  48. G Money says:

    Ryan,

    For sure. When I have time, I might take a run at looking at F/D combo relationships to CF/60 (if it works we can call it the RyanMoney metric) and see if anything comes up. Of course, “when I have time” may be 2018.

    One piece of good news is that Wheat is looking at correlations between his tracking data and the automated fancystats (I sent him detailed data on all the games he tracked, so included in that is DangerFen).

  49. stush18 says:

    JimmyV1965: Love the passion for Chia, but it’s a bit misplaced. Chia was brought in to turn around the team. There needs to be significant improvement this year.If not, there will be questions. I largely agree with everything you say. The worst trade prior to Hall was Reinhart and I really don’t have a big issue with it.But the Hall trade was a gross overpayment and it should raise red flags, especially given his previous history.

    Having said that, I think Chia has a real vision for building the team and he’s achieved a great deal of this already.His execution is questionable though. I honestly think the Oilers will be bigger and tougher to play against this year and we do have a better chance at making the playoffs.

    If we fail to make the playoffs and if Larsson ends up being Mark Fayne 2, the questions will become a roar. At this point, the only guy I have compete confidence in is Bob Green.

    The way I see it, hall was the only overpayment. And that mistake is on the ten years of wasted years before him. It’s the price we pay for always drafting BPA.

  50. Ryan says:

    Woodguy: I would use Rel CF so you don’t miss good players on poor teams, but also use CF so you don’t miss good players on good teams.

    otherwise I agree with G.

    Now you’re thinking fast.

    I’m talking about thinking slow.

    I don’t mean “eye balling it,” rather having a predictive framework.

    I’m not trying to argue the specifics with you, rather I am trying to ask the right question. If you don’t feel this is an important question, tell me I’m wrong,

  51. JDï™ says:

    Gordies Elbow: Raise a Little Hell

    Raise a little Hall

    Raise a little Hall

    Raise a little Hall…

    ba bump – ba bump…

    Yeah they’re great. I’ve done couple (?) shows with them in years past, and they’re really great guys too.

    Jerry Doucette was another. Doug and the Slugs too.

    My buddy went to see David Wilcox in a smaller city way back in the early 90s. He was playing in a fairly large bar to about 5 people. After a song or two, Wilcox says “Fuck it – let’s finish this in my room if it’s just us!”

    He partied and jammed with Wilcox until sun up. He said it was bizarre, because Wilcox just kept getting better as his BAC rose.

  52. G Money says:

    Centre of attention,

    Good thoughts.

    The current gold standard for passing data (and by that I mean, the *only* passing data!) is the Stimson passing project.

    Anyone looked at it recently? Wonder if there’s anything in there you could use to synthesize a completion percentage, interceptions (and touchdowns one would hope!) for defensemen.

  53. Centre of attention says:

    stush18,

    I mean, Oesterle looked equal or better than Reinhart according to the WoodMoney™ metric. He also doesn’t have those problematic bonus issues like Reinhart does.

    The bonus’s are really Reinharts biggest enemy.

  54. JDï™ says:

    G Money: I thought of Lowe as General Hand Grenade

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOpgL4mqEis

    You know, Buck Owens might be a great RE.

  55. JimmyV1965 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Centre of attention,

    Larsson also scored 19 ES points in only 64 games last season. These were both on the worst ES scoring team in the league in that timeframe. You just really, really hope most of what comes in the transition to Edmonton is good. Please Adam, score 35 points and hold a positive GF% playing over 23 minutes/night.

    Honestly, I hate the trade but I so so so share your sentiment.

  56. G Money says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    You bet.

    We’ve upgraded to version 2 of the top comp/dregs definitions and right now I’m running a few hundred random players through the system to stress test the database.

    After that, I’ll run those guys through. The system will calculate the numbers no matter the TOI, but if a player has less than about 300 mins, the sample sizes are so small that the stats are volatile with little reliability. (Note that the format won’t be very pretty because I’ve converted the output from human readable to csv format, so a little uglier. On the other hand, copy&paste it into Excel and Bob from Calgary’s your uncle!)

    Say, where is Bookjie these days? Has fame gone to his head? If so, fuck that guy!

  57. Gordies Elbow says:

    JDï™: Raise a little Hall

    Jerry Doucette was another. Doug and the Slugs too.

    I went to Doug and the Slugs at Red’s – good concert (RIP Doug.)

    Wish I’d been there for David Wilcox. Sounds like it was awesome.

  58. stush18 says:

    Again I would like to ask everyone. Does anyone have a reasonable option for a top pairing RH dman?

    Is anyone here willing to sacrifice our centre depth and trade away nuge + for players like dumba, shattenkirk, Barrie?

    Especially when they will cost the same against the cap.

    Hall is a marvellous player, but we are closer to playoffs then we were before he was traded. We haven’t seen defence in ten years, so we forget what it’s like.

    Comparing Larsson against what is available, I’m more than happy to get him.

    If there was a team that could afford to give up a forward, it was the oilers.

  59. JimmyV1965 says:

    stush18: Fair enough. I was getting randy by the end.

    No one projecting Reinhart onto the roster? Have you read wood moneys work? Basically every number is pointing to Reinhart being the best avilible option for #6 dman, possibly higher. Def better than nurse.

    Can you please tell me what his approach should be? This was the point I was going to make, and admittedly I went off on a rant.

    Please list options availible. I’m going to assume chia isn’t an idiot and didn’t trade hall for the first dman availible.

    I think saying I make zero sense is a little disingenuous.

    I think the bonuses will create a significant roadblock for GR. Will really have to knock it out of the park to get more than 42 games, or there has to be a bunch of injuries.

  60. G Money says:

    Funny thing about the random players is one of them is Rich Clune, and just now Rich Clune came across my Twitter feed (I don’t follow him, someone I do follow retweeted him).

    I will now spend the next year meditating on how to turn this random coincidence into a *Sign of Universal Oneness.

    *meaning how do I use this to part fools from their money before someone else does

  61. wheatnoil says:

    Man, I’ve been so busy that I haven’t checked in here in awhile and I finally do on a day my name’s being mentioned… my digital ears must’ve been burning.

    My summer to do list:
    Track 10 Larsson games (4 done and there are a couple others tracking some to add on to mine)
    Correlate zone exits and zone entries against with available fancy stats data (including my work, Bruce McCurdy’s from 12/13 and Corey Sznajder’s for the whole league in 13/14).
    Integrate WoodMoney’s work in to the tracking data.

    Running around a bit this evening (as I’ve been for a couple weeks here), getting things tied up (actually flying into Edmonton tomorrow). If I get a chance later tonight I’ll share some initial findings on some of the above.

  62. Bag of Pucks says:

    Stush, the burden of proof is not on the fans to find a better alternative to Chiarelli’s work. No one put a gun to his head to make this trade. His work has to be judged on its own merits and empirically it doesn’t hold up. Everyone defending this trade has to introduce a caveat to support their conclusion. That’s a problem.

    Ultimately, I think this community will be disappointed with this GM as it’s becoming more clear that his decisions are as influenced by intangibles as much, if not more, than by data.

    Size, will, grit. This is what Chia values. I’ve played enough hockey to value those things too, but at the end of the day, you have to put the biscuit in the basket and trading outscorers like Seguin and Hall in their prime is likely not the best way to gain the competitive edge needed to win Cups.

    And, incidentally, it was a really shitty thing to do to Hall. That matters.

  63. Ryan says:

    G Money:
    Ryan,

    For sure.When I have time, I might take a run at looking at F/D combo relationships to CF/60 (if it works we can call it the RyanMoney metric) and see if anything comes up.Of course, “when I have time” may be 2018.

    One piece of good news is that Wheat is looking at correlations between his tracking data and the automated fancystats (I sent him detailed data on all the games he tracked, so included in that is DangerFen).

    I’m trying to crack the Schultz-Fayne paradox.

    Fayne was the advanced stats darling whom we later found was zoomed by Greene and can’t make a breakout pass to save his life.

    Schultz is the “puck moving defenseman” who racks up points but can’t actually make a headman pass to save his life.

    Finding out if a potential dman falls into three buckets:

    Above average to excellent breakout pass ability
    Average ability
    Off the glass and out

    This is an important question to me.

  64. JimmyV1965 says:

    stush18: The way I see it, hall was the only overpayment. And that mistake is onthe ten years of wasted years before him. It’s the price we pay for always drafting BPA.

    I agree with that. The red flag for me of course is Seguin, Kessel and Wheeler. Those are significant deals.

  65. Centre of attention says:

    G Money:
    Centre of attention,

    Good thoughts.

    The current gold standard for passing data (and by that I mean, the *only* passing data!) is the Stimson passing project.

    Anyone looked at it recently?Wonder if there’s anything in there you could use to synthesize a completion percentage, interceptions (and touchdowns one would hope!) for defensemen.

    Your touch down comment just sparked a brainstorm. Some random thoughts that are coming to me as I type this:

    1:You could really gain some useful information on d-men by collecting pass completion rates specifically for passes that result in high-danger chance (a pass to the slot for a shot, or to the front of the net for a deflection, etc etc), and then even more specifically those resulting directyl in goals (goal is scored by the player receiving the pass you are tracking)

    2: You could gain some other interesting information collecting pass completion rates relative to the zone they are made in.

    2A: D-zone passes would be very interesting to track as they would correlate well to shots against. (IE: A guy who can’t make a pass in his own zone is probably Schutlzing it up pretty bad)

    2B: Offensive zone passes would correlate well with how many points they are getting. Obviously. But you could also gain information on passes that result in high danger shots, giving you a better picture of the guys who are unlucky or stuck with offensively inept teammates who can’t cash.

    2C: Neutral zone pass completion rates may give you a view of both sides of the puck. if you botch a pass in the neutral zone it probably means a high danger chance against. If you complete one, you’re probably going to generate some shot attempts in your favor during that shift. Comprende’?

    I apologize for the wall of text but I had to write this all down before it escaped me. Mind if I DM you?

  66. Water Fire says:

    stush18: You cherry picked one sentence out of my entire post.

    Allow me to edit what I mean. Everyone who appears to have given up on chia, please go ahead and give up.

    I got the sarcasm, didn’t seem that cryptic.

  67. Gordies Elbow says:

    JimmyV1965: I think the bonuses will create a significant roadblock for GR. Will really have to knock it out of the park to get more than 42 games, or there has to be a bunch of injuries.

    I’ve worked out the math in the last couple of threads, and it sounds like it will be a hockey decision, not contract decision.

    Exhibit 5 of the CBA shows the potential bonuses. I’d expect that schedule “A” bonuses are likely achievable ($850k), but the schedule “B” bonuses are unlikely to be achieved. GR’s not winning the Norris, Hart, etc., making the offical all-star team, or top 10 in points, goals, minutes, etc.

  68. Bag of Pucks says:

    Justin Schultz signing for $1.4 million when he should be earning league minimum…in the AHL.

    Say what you want about Jultz on the ice, the guy knows how to hire an agent.

  69. Centre of attention says:

    stush18:
    Again I would like to ask everyone. Does anyone have a reasonable option for a top pairing RH dman?

    Is anyone here willing to sacrifice our centre depth and trade away nuge + for players like dumba, shattenkirk, Barrie?

    Especially when they will cost the same against the cap.

    Hall is a marvellous player, but we are closer to playoffs then we were before he was traded. We haven’t seen defence in ten years, so we forget what it’s like.

    Comparing Larsson against what is available, I’m more than happy to get him.

    If there was a team that could afford to give up a forward, it was the oilers.

    I think you are starting to enter “yelling at cloud” territory. I suggest being less defensive. Try to stop addressing the group as a whole challenging people to poke holes in your statements, only to get offended when people do just that.

    Before you say you weren’t offended, you did already say you were getting “randy” towards the end of your other post. I will take that as you feeling offended, the alternative I would rather not talk about.

    Hope you have a great night, man. Relax a bit. 😉

  70. gnikkles says:

    stush18: Fair enough. I was getting randy by the end.

    No one projecting Reinhart onto the roster? Have you read wood moneys work? Basically every number is pointing to Reinhart being the best avilible option for #6 dman, possibly higher. Def better than nurse.

    Can you please tell me what his approach should be? This was the point I was going to make, and admittedly I went off on a rant.

    Please list options availible. I’m going to assume chia isn’t an idiot and didn’t trade hall for the first dman availible.

    I think saying I make zero sense is a little disingenuous.

    Well, my personal opinion is that Chiarelli should treat it closer to a sprint than a marathon. I have that point of view for multiple reasons, but mostly McDavids entry level contract.

    Which is why I would like him to have committed to a sprint; ie trading for Subban.

    The holes we would have been left with after trading for Subban (if I am recalling Montreals ask correctly) would have been 3C, 3LD and probably 2RW (puljajarvi). And I know there were draft picks and stuff or whatever. Chiarelli hasn’t been afraid to give those up in lower quality trades though.

    Yes, the price hurts the mid to long term, but like I said I personally feel the approach should be closer to a sprint.

    And, I believe if you get the best player you win a trade 90% of the time (made up stat). We would be getting the best player in that trade for sure.

  71. wheatnoil says:

    Centre of attention:

    2A: D-zone passes would be very interesting to track as they would correlate well to shots against. (IE: A guy who can’t make a pass in his own zone is probably Schutlzing it up pretty bad

    When I tracked this last year, Schultz really showed poorly in this… which explains a lot.

    Though, interestingly, I didn’t find that d-zone passes correlated with either shots for or against.

  72. JimmyV1965 says:

    stush18: dregs

    No offence, but that’s why chia gets paid the big bucks. I find it very hard to believe that JP + spare parts or a 2nd could not have landed a similar dman though.

  73. stush18 says:

    Centre of attention:
    stush18,

    I mean, Oesterle looked equal or better than Reinhart according to the WoodMoney™ metric. He also doesn’t have those problematic bonus issues like Reinhart does.

    The bonus’s are really Reinharts biggest enemy.

    True. I also saw oesterle pretty bad defensively. If he comes into camp bigger, I think he could be a rafalski type. He’s an unreal puckmover. I just don’t know if he can score enough to make up for what he does defensively.

    Also the bonuses really aren’t an issue. Someone posted today they come below the cap if they have everyone on the team.

  74. JimmyV1965 says:

    Gordies Elbow: I’ve worked out the math in the last couple of threads, and it sounds like it will be a hockey decision, not contract decision.

    Exhibit 5 of the CBA shows the potential bonuses. I’d expect that schedule “A” bonuses are likely achievable ($850k), but the schedule “B” bonuses are unlikely to be achieved. GR’s not winning the Norris, Hart, etc., making the offical all-star team, or top 10 in points, goals, minutes, etc.

    I’m not the sharpest tool in the shed. I remember reading those comments and the lightbulb coming on. Of course you’re right. And of course my lightbulb went out immediately.

  75. Ryan says:

    wheatnoil:
    Man, I’ve been so busy that I haven’t checked in here in awhile and I finally do on a day my name’s being mentioned… my digital ears must’ve been burning.

    My summer to do list:
    Track 10 Larsson games (4 done and there are a couple others tracking some to add on to mine)
    Correlate zone exits and zone entries against with available fancy stats data (including my work, Bruce McCurdy’s from 12/13 and Corey Sznajder’s for the whole league in 13/14).
    Integrate WoodMoney’s work in to the tracking data.

    Running around a bit this evening (as I’ve been for a couple weeks here), getting things tied up (actually flying into Edmonton tomorrow). If I get a chance later tonight I’ll share some initial findings on some of the above.

    With great power comes great responsibility.

  76. Lowetide says:

    stush18: You cherry picked one sentence out of my entire post.

    Allow me to edit what I mean. Everyone who appears to have given up on chia, please go ahead and give up.

    Yep. Agree with that for sure. If people have given up on Chiarelli, then I doubt they will come back. For me, I can see his route (dark side of the moon) and wish he had gone Hall-Demers, but he felt the defense needed a bigger solution.

  77. stush18 says:

    Centre of attention: I think you are starting to enter “yelling at cloud” territory. I suggest being less defensive. Try to stop addressing the group as a whole challenging people to poke holes in your statements, only to get offended when people do just that.

    Before you say you weren’t offended, you said you were getting “randy” towards the end of your other post. I will take that as you feeling offended, the alternative I would rather not talk about.

    Hope you have a great night, man. Relax a bit.

    Haha thanks man. That was supposed to say ranty. Damn autocorrect.

    I’m just getting tired of the chia disbelievers. We’re a year into a ten year mess. Everyone seems to be upset that chia didn’t trade lander for subban.

    I would hope the rational every day posters know me enough to know I’m reasonable.

    I’ll drop off, and thanks for the words.

  78. Centre of attention says:

    G Money:
    Centre of attention,

    You bet.

    You’re @Oilersnerdalert on twitter right?

  79. stush18 says:

    Lowetide: Yep. Agree with that for sure. If people have given up on Chiarelli, then I doubt they will come back. For me, I can see his route (dark side of the moon) and wish he had gone Hall-Demers, but he felt the defense needed a bigger solution.

    Fair enough. I think this team needed a bigger solution than demers, and I’m happy we finally have a top pairing dman. I’ve watched enough video now on him to be very satisfied.

    Also apologies. Brought to my attention I’ve been getting defensive. It seems like the chia detractors have endless proof at how incompetent he is, and I can bring enough evidence to convince them otherwise.

    Gotta stop yelling at the masses

  80. Water Fire says:

    JimmyV1965: I agree with that. The red flag for me of course is Seguin, Kessel and Wheeler. Those are significant deals.

    The lousy things about GM’s is what is their choice? Does Chia dislike offense first forwards? Or do the guys that ousted him in Boston? Did Chia trade Hall or was that decision from elsewhere?

    Nobody works with total autonomy. There is always somone to answer to, even in the case of guys like Warren Buffet, he answers to those who buy his products, but probably not anyone else.

    At the end of the day it doesn’t really matter. All we can do as fans is learn a lot and push back however we can if they wreck the team by being wrongheaded and refusing to learn and adapt.

    There are some orgs that get it. They seem to win the Cup a lot recently. Chia may have won a Cup but that was quite a while ago and Boston is not a contender aymore.

    That to me is the biggest sign of a team getting the plot – remaining competitive and not misunderstanding luck as both Boston and Vancouver did after their tilt. They have both made bad decisions and ended up quite a ways from where they once were.

  81. Centre of attention says:

    stush18:

    Everyone seems to be upset that chia didn’t trade lander for subban.

    See, this kind of statement is whats bugging people. Nobody is saying they wanted Chiarelli to trade Lander for Subban. I know you are using hyperbole, but c’mon.

    I agree with some of your statements regarding Chiarelli by the way. It’s best we hold off the majority of judgement until we see how camp/October go.

    But I also think it’s fair game to judge some of the moves he has in fact already made. They are not clear wins, and arguments can be made on both sides for the majority of them.

    If you feel you must correct the “Chiarelli disbelievers” try engaging them directly, you will get your point across easier as well as avoid someone else misinterpreting your statement(s).

  82. dustrock says:

    G Money,

    One of the interesting comments Cory West made in his COH article on Larsson was “maybe he gets so many DZ starts because that’s the best place for him” meaning he can do the least damage.

    Thought it was melodramatic but would be interesting to see a stat look at positive breakouts not just extrapolating from shots.

    Something equivalent to the heat maps they use in basketball and soccer.

    Don’t know what stats/software soccer uses but they can track number of passes & completion rates in-game.

  83. Centre of attention says:

    stush18: Fair enough. I think this team needed a bigger solution than demers, and I’m happy we finally have a top pairing dman. I’ve watched enough video now on him to be very satisfied.

    Also apologies. Brought to my attention I’ve been getting defensive. It seems like the chia detractors have endless proof at how incompetent he is, and I can bring enough evidence to convince them otherwise.

    Gotta stop yelling at the masses

    You nailed it man. I enjoy your posts and would hate to lose your input. You’re passionate about your ideas, and that is not a bad thing. 🙂

  84. digger50 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Stush, the burden of proof is not on the fans to find a better alternative to Chiarelli’s work. No one put a gun to his head to make this trade. His work has to be judged on its own merits and empirically it doesn’t hold up. Everyone defending this trade has to introduce a caveat to support their conclusion. That’s a problem.

    Ultimately, I think this community will be disappointed with this GM as it’s becoming more clear that his decisions are as influenced by intangibles as much, if not more, than by data.

    Size, will, grit. This is what Chia values. I’ve played enough hockey to value those things too, but at the end of the day, you have to put the biscuit in the basket and trading outscorers like Seguin and Hall in their prime is likely not the best way to gain the competitive edge needed to win Cups.

    And, incidentally, it was a really shitty thing to do to Hall. That matters.

    Wow, I love this.

    Stush, I too like the passion, Chia’s track record has people divided right now.

    My wife wants a new house, one with an extra bedroom because we have a need for an extra bedroom. But she looks at million dollar homes way out of our price range – so I don’t even stop, I just keep on driving.

  85. YKOil says:

    gnikkles:

    Trust me, Chiarelli is treating this like a sprint instead of a marathon and that is a big issue.

    This is what scares me. A GM taking the long view picks up the Redmond’s and Marchessault’s of the NHL last year – he doesn’t even wait for this year – and test drives them as early as possible to see if they will fill a hole. Can anyone honestly tell me Buffalo was holding onto Pysyk just in case Kulikov came open? Of course not.

    PC is sprinting full out and he’ll only slow down when a guy who fits his ‘type’ is available (Maroon, Kassian).

    A GM taking the long view looks at this team going into the off-season, trusts in:

    — the improvement a full year of player growth under TMac should have (Davidson, improved Fayne, etc), and
    — the difference good team health can make (McDavid full year, Klefbom full year, etc)

    keeps Hall and gets Lucic too. Salary cap space being available is a great asset while salary cap space being unused can be a waste of an asset – the key is timing.

    The long view means that everything is about timing. If the right side is a problem then make sure your C and LW is dominant until you can ‘right’ the right-side. Small moves represent good value here because, eventually, that RH player you want comes open (or you get gifted a JP).

    And I remain convinced that the small moves were there – PC didn’t care though because he’s sprinting and small details get missed when you are moving that fast.

    Slow down PC. BUILD the team. McDavid isn’t out of here THAT fast. There is time. JP doesn’t HAVE to play this year.

    All that said, a sprinting PC is still better than the drunken stagger we got out of Tambo and MacT – their work is why PC feels he has to sprint in the first place.

  86. kinger_OIL says:

    stush18,

    – I agree 100% that this is only a playoff team if everything breaks right. That includes all of:
    1) Klef playing 75 games at his best level
    2) Davidson playing 75 games at his best level
    3) Larsson being at least as “effective” as he was playing in the big bad west for a worse defensive team
    4) One of Nurse/Griff/Osterle has a light-switch turn on and is this years “Davidson”
    5) Conner McDavids
    6) There is G back-up for when Talbot struggles (all goalies struggle), and Talbot plays better this year
    7) Drai is closer to the 20 game hotness Drai then the other Drai
    8) They figure out a power-play and acquire the player needed to help

    – That’s a lot that needs to happen…

  87. Gordies Elbow says:

    Lowetide: Yep. Agree with that for sure. If people have given up on Chiarelli, then I doubt they will come back. For me, I can see his route (dark side of the moon) and wish he had gone Hall-Demers, but he felt the defense needed a bigger solution.

    So it looks like Lucic-Larsson vs. Hall-Demers (if Demers was willing to sign, which is another discussion.)

    Lucic plays the “Place and Chase” role to a T. I can’t name a Chiarelli/McLellan player that fits their profile better.

    Demers’ SO is in musical theatre – Edmonton? Really?

  88. innercitysmytty says:

    Lowetide,

    LT, I agree 100% with you that Hall-Demers would have been the better option. But do you think Chia preferred to trade Hall though? Or was it a case of Demers having no interest in signing here, so Chia felt the Larsson move was the only option? It’s all well and good to want Demers to sign here, but if there’s 20 other teams interested, why would he want to? And if that’s how it played out it’s not on Chia for not signing him.

  89. Woodguy says:

    JDï™,

    Kick Axe

    One of the first live shows I saw as a kid was Kick Axe and Helix at the Silver Slipper on Halloween in 1984. (might have been 1983)

    When they hardly sold any tickets they made it an all ages show.

    Heavy Metal Shuffle!!

  90. Blackwolf says:

    stush18,

    I wouldn’t get to worked up over this. After 10 years of losing, most fans have to great of an emotional attachment to some players.
    Chia is playing chess, a lot of folks are trying to view it as a checker game.
    You are correct, lucic absolutelyfactors into the hall trade. Most people don’t want to see it or hear it though. It’s much simpler to look at it as a one for one and lose our collective minds.
    I’m a huge hall fan, most nights he was the only thing worth watching. But I would rather watch wins rather hall if that’s what it took.

  91. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    LOVE Pulkkinen think he would be great as Drai’s RW. He had shoulder surgery might start the season on IR but who cares. Upside is huge cost should be low. McNeill too would be a nice pickup.

  92. Centre of attention says:

    wheatnoil: When I tracked this last year, Schultz really showed poorly in this… which explains a lot.

    Though, interestingly, I didn’t find that d-zone passes correlated with either shots for or against.

    Hmmmmm. Maybe a larger sample size will paint a better picture of the impact. You have to think messing up passes is definitely a bad thing to do in the defensive zone, because it presents the opportunity for a shot to be generated.

    I definitely think a larger sample would eventually show a negative impact on shots against if you consistently f*ck up d-zone passes. Neutral zone ones could be even more deadly.

  93. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Blackwolf:
    stush18,

    I wouldn’t get to worked up over this. After 10 years of losing, most fans have to great of an emotional attachment to some players.Chia is playing chess, a lot of folks are trying to view it as a checker game.You are correct, lucic absolutelyfactors into the hall trade. Most people don’t want to see it or hear it though. It’s much simpler to look at it as a one for one and lose our collective minds.I’m a huge hall fan, most nights he was the only thing worth watching.But I would rather watch wins rather hall if that’s what it took.

    You’re exactly right and in the minority.

  94. Bag of Pucks says:

    Back in the day when evaluating a GM, I would think ‘what would Sam Pollock do?’

    These days, I find myself asking ‘what would Steve Yzerman do?’

    By this measure, I’m encouraged Yak is still in the fold because it makes a Drouin-esque resurrection possible. Certainly better than trading him for peanuts.

    What would Stevie Y do with Hall?

    Well, he didn’t trade Stamkos or let him walk as an FA, he resigned him cos that’s what you do with your best, loyal, and most productive players. You show them loyalty in turn and that’s how you build ‘team.’

    Chiarelli isn’t playing chess. He’s playing Monopoly, badly, and flipping Boardwalk for Reading Railroad is the clear tell.

  95. Centre of attention says:

    Blackwolf:
    stush18,

    I wouldn’t get to worked up over this. After 10 years of losing, most fans have to great of an emotional attachment to some players.Chia is playing chess, a lot of folks are trying to view it as a checker game.You are correct, lucic absolutelyfactors into the hall trade. Most people don’t want to see it or hear it though. It’s much simpler to look at it as a one for one and lose our collective minds.I’m a huge hall fan, most nights he was the only thing worth watching.But I would rather watch wins rather hall if that’s what it took.

    The problem is the wins are not guaranteed. You can’t tell me Larsson will be a first pair D and succeed with the Oilers, because he hasn’t played one damn game for them yet.

    And if the wins don’t come, now we suck AND we don’t have Hall.

    Would that mean the trade was Hall for McDavid in a round about way? We trade our only reason to watch the games for another singular reason to watch the games.

    Ok, maybe it’s time for me to get some sleep. Lol.

  96. VOR says:

    I don’t mean to throw cold water on the dman passing stat idea, merely to add an element of caution. As a former quarterback, turned middle line backer, become defensive back passing stats are heavily teammate and opponent driven. If your wide receiver can’t get open and you check off to your tight end and he drops the damn ball you put on his numbers you look like you botched the pass. Conversely if you have a defensive lineman coming on a blitz and all your primaries are covered and you throw it underhand to your tailback as you are getting flattened then you are Tom Wilkinson. If you scramble, elude the coverage, buy your receivers time and fire the ball on the run sixty yards down field you are Warren Moon. My point is the first pass is seen as a failure when it isn’t the quarterbacks ‘ fault. The other two are both successful passes but the two quarterbacks are as unlike each other as chalk and cheese.

    Now translate that to the NHL. You are an Edmonton Oilers defenceman. RNH is the only forward who comes back to support the puck. Your passing stats are going to look like shit, because that lack of puck support allows any well coached opponent to fill the remaining passing lanes as the forecheck closes in.

    If you don’t think what the forwards are doing matters to a defenceman trying to pass the puck consider the following thought experiment. Imagine tomorrow the Oilers sign a centre who is way over sixty percent on dzone draws, comes back on the backcheck, all the way back, every time, is great at getting open and creating open passing lanes for his d partners, plays massive minutes, and best of all when he touches the puck it comes out of his end under control nearly 100% of the time. He is a great skater and a superb passer, and a well above average goal scorer. Can you honestly say that wouldn’t make any defenceman who played with him look like a zone exit wizard.

    I am, in case it isn’t obvious, describing an actual player. Once, years ago the NHL collected the sort of information you are talking about. The thing is there were these two defencemen who were wicked outliers, zone exit magicians, Larry Robinson and Serge Savard. Want to know what they had going for them that no other NHL defenceman had? Jacques Lemaire. He was the only player in the NHL with better zone exit stats than the two legendary defencemen.

    You can’t separate the passer from the target, or the opposition, or the coach’s strategy for that matter.

  97. Centre of attention says:

    Bag of Pucks:

    But Yzerman didn’t trade Stamkos or let him walk as an FA, he resigned him cos that’s what you do with your best, loyal, and most productive players. You show them loyalty in turn and that’s how you build ‘team.’

    Chiarelli isn’t playing chess. He’s playing Monopoly and flipping Boardwalk for Reading Railroad is the clear tell.

    Bingo.

    Heres my conundrum though. Is it possible to not like the Hall trade, but also think Hall-Demers was not the answer? Asking for a friend.

  98. Bag of Pucks says:

    Centre of attention: Bingo.

    Heres my conundrum though. Is it possible to not like the Hall trade, but also think Hall-Demers was not the answer? Asking for a friend.

    I don’t like Demers as the solution. He is a massive overpay for what he brings imo.

    Snow’s acquisitions of Boychuk and Leddy are held up as the recent gold standard and rightfully so, as he let the market come to him on those deals. The timing was the key.

    I think the answer should’ve been A) keep Hall B) land one of Barrie, Shattenkirk or Dumba when the cap compliance tightens the noose & C) stick with the most likely scenario of KBom and Nurse becoming your top pairing during McDavid’s RFA years.

  99. Centre of attention says:

    Bag of Pucks: I don’t like Demers as the solution. He is a massive overpay for what he brings imo.

    Snow’s acquisitions of Boychuk and Leddy are held up as the recent gold standard and rightfully so, as he let the market come to him on those deals. The timing was the key.

    I think the answer should’ve been A) keep Hall B) land one of Barrie, Shattenkirk or Dumba when the cap compliance tightens the noose & C) stick with the most likely scenario of KBom and Nurse being your top pairing during McDavid’s RFA years.

    I disagree with a Shattenkirk acquisition. He won’t sign here long term.

    Dumba would cost Nuge according to all reports, I’m so glad Peter shot that one down at the draft. I was getting cold sweats reading Dreger/Friedman repeatedly mention Fletcher and Chiarelli talking.

    It was a tough call any way you look at it. The worst possible outcome would be for him to sit on his hands and do nothing. One thing you can appreciate about Chiarelli is that he has a clear goal/direction and will stop at nothing in his quest to achieve it.

  100. RandomPoster says:

    G Money: Say, where is Bookjie these days? Has fame gone to his head? If so, fuck that guy!

    The day that Hall was traded he posted that he was done.
    I haven’t seen a post from him since.

  101. wheatnoil says:

    VOR,

    I agree with this and would extra emphasis on the tactics component. One thing I’ve noticed tracking NJ games is that their breakouts start from deeper in the zone… the forwards are coming back deeper to help out. That means their D-zone passes are a bit easier to make and, unsurprisingly, their success rate for D-zone passes (as a team) is greater than the Oilers. You need to have the context of the whole team to make sense of it.

  102. Bag of Pucks says:

    Centre of attention: I disagree with a Shattenkirk acquisition. He won’t sign her long term.

    Dumba would cost Nuge according to all reports, I’m so glad Peter shot that one down at the draft. I was getting cold sweats reading Dreger/Friedman repeatedly mention Fletcher and Chiarelli talking.

    It was a tough call any way you look at it. The worst possible outcome would be for him to sit on his hands and do nothing. One thing you can appreciate about Chiarelli is that he has a clear goal/direction and will stop at nothing in his quest to achieve it.

    How about a scenario where Chia tells Shero RNH or Eberle is the max return for Larsson, sticks to his guns, waits him out, and finally land him for Nuge cos NJ was desperate for O?

    The timing of this trade smacks of clearing the 1LW spot for Lucic to guarantee his signing in free agency.

    Chiarelli gave Shero and Lucic all the leverage.

  103. wheatnoil says:

    What I’ve found is that (at least for the Oilers) there is limited correlation with their zone exits and corsi for or corsi against. However, there was a stronger correlation between their controlled zone exits and G Money’s Danger Fenwick For (not Against).

    So basically, Oilers D-men that exited the zone with more control, they did not necessarily have better corsi for or against.

    BUT Oilers D-men who exited the zone with better control DID have better Danger Fenwick For.

    Perhaps more interesting is that I’ve found that preventing controlled zone entries was highly correlated with better corsi (both for and against). So Oilers D that were better at preventing controlled zone entries had a better corsi than those that weren’t. What’s more, that’s true for the team at an individual game level. In Oiler games where the Oilers D prevented controlled zone entries at a better rate, the team had a better corsi. It’s a much stronger correlation than zone exits.

    I’ll be curious to see if that pattern is true of New Jersey as well. As well as the other zone tracking data sets we have.

  104. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    Gordies Elbow: Exhibit 5 of the CBA shows the potential bonuses. I’d expect that schedule “A” bonuses are likely achievable ($850k), but the schedule “B” bonuses are unlikely to be achieved. GR’s not winning the Norris, Hart, etc., making the offical all-star team, or top 10 in points, goals, minutes, etc.

    Some forget that for Reinhart schedule B includes league paid bonus that don’t count against cap and 1.5M in bonuses that would count. (Not to be confused with the 850K in more achievable schedule A).

    So does anyone know the terms NYI gave GR for schedule B?. And the cap implications this year (even if he is unlikely to hit them even if he plays 82)

  105. wheatnoil says:

    Also, I hesitate to share much of the New Jersey data I’m tracking since I’m only 4 games in so it’s a pretty small sample size to draw any conclusions from. However, so far, at least in the four games I tracked, Larsson actually has more zone exits than Greene, more primary assists on zone exits and more total zone exits (of any kind). In fact, he has significantly more controlled zone exits and total zone exits… like almost 50% more. I’m sure that won’t last with more games, but early returns are good.

    Also interesting is his D-zone passing. So far (again, super small sample), he leads the team in this. He rarely turns the puck over in the defensive zone. Usually when he touches the puck, the next person that touches it is on New Jersey… at a higher rate than other New Jersey D-men.

  106. JDï™ says:

    Harlequin, Streetheart, Prism, Platinum Blonde (asking for a friend), Chilliwack, Honeymoon Suite, Headpins, Manhattan Transfer (asking for Cameron).

  107. LadiesloveSmid says:

    wheatnoil,

    he had a pretty terrible giveaway to I think Stone in the slot at the WHCs so it’s your job to prove that doesn’t happen a ton. Great work!

  108. Blackwolf says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    At the end of the year hall wasn’t playing 1l. Maroon was. I doubt shero would move his 1rd for nugent or Eberle.

  109. mustang says:

    stush18,

    I hear what you are saying and I’m 100% with you.

    Love the passion!

    The last thing I want is to bang our heads agaist the wall for another 10 yrs and expect something other than a freaking headache. Did I like the trade of Hall? Not a chance, but I understand why it was done and I applaud the fact PC made a very very bold trade. Trading Lander for Subban isn’t bold thats a no brainer.

    Picking first or top 5 forever and taking the best player available, eventually you have to trade somebody to shore up some weakness and we did that.

    10 years wondering in the desert is hopefully coming to an end. In case some people forget, PC has built a championship team before, I think he deserves the opportunity to see this through.

  110. G Money says:

    wheatnoil,

    This is very encouraging. Please keep it up, and if necessary, fake the results so as to show him as top pairing material!

  111. wheatnoil says:

    Ryan: With great power comes great responsibility.

    Hah, more like with great disorganization comes great running around like a chicken with your head cut off.

    I think they cut that line from Spiderman.

  112. Wonder Llama says:

    JDï™:
    RE music suggestions:

    Aldo Nova

    Corey Hart

    Toronto

    Helix

    Moxy

    Queen City Kids

    Kick Axe

    Krokus

    Wow. I needed some time to recover from my flashback. Aldo Nova!

    I remember seeing Toronto and iirc The Headpins (?) on something called the “lock up your sons” tour.

  113. Lowetide says:

    wheatnoil:
    Also, I hesitate to share much of the New Jersey data I’m tracking since I’m only 4 games in so it’s a pretty small sample size to draw any conclusions from. However, so far, at least in the four games I tracked, Larsson actually has more zone exits than Greene, more primary assists on zone exits and more total zone exits (of any kind). In fact, he has significantly more controlled zone exits and total zone exits… like almost 50% more. I’m sure that won’t last with more games, but early returns are good.

    Also interesting is his D-zone passing. So far (again, super small sample), he leads the team in this. He rarely turns the puck over in the defensive zone. Usually when he touches the puck, the next person that touches it is on New Jersey… at a higher rate than other New Jersey D-men.

    Gold.

  114. Picturesque says:

    OT: I watched the movie Moneyball last night (2nd viewing) and I’m wondering who might be the Bill James of the hockey world? Is there an adequate comparable or does no one in hockey come close to the contribution of Bill James? (The amount of statistical innovations he devised).

  115. Bag of Pucks says:

    Blackwolf:
    Bag of Pucks,

    At the end of the year hall wasn’t playing 1l. Maroon was. I doubt shero would move his 1rd for nugent or Eberle.

    RNH for Larsson is equitable return. If Shero won’t take it, it’s his loss and you walk away. He had a massive need for O too, so there’s no way I’m convinced Shero holds all the leverage.

    The crux of it is ‘bold move’ translated into ‘ losing a trade to get alleged balance.’

    Chiarelli’s pot committed now and will be defined by this trade as he was the Kessel and Seguin trades. I hope for everyone’s sake his projection on Larsson is right, but he could just as easily be Fayne redux rather than the Seabrook in his prime we’re being sold.

  116. Lowetide says:

    innercitysmytty:
    Lowetide,

    LT, I agree 100% with you that Hall-Demers would have been the better option. But do you think Chia preferred to trade Hall though? Or was it a case of Demers having no interest in signing here, so Chia felt the Larsson move was the only option? It’s all well and good to want Demers to sign here, but if there’s 20 other teams interested, why would he want to? And if that’s how it played out it’s not on Chia for not signing him.

    We will never know. I think Chiarelli is a smart guy and that would not have been his first choice. Hall is not a center and he is probably the guy everyone was asking for in return. I am pretty certain Larsson was the best defenseman available at that price. I expect PC misjudged the market, something this blog did as well. They saw him coming, and not having a Jeff Petry as backup, he decided against the $5M Demers, he decided the gap between Hall and Lucic was less than the gap between Larsson and Demers.

    I was not pleased with the trade, and remain convinced it was a huge overpay. I am not the GM, and can only imagine the pressure on the man to make this thing work. He is building up the middle, he is gathering defensemen by the bushel and this team will be better.

    It is a painful process, and he could (PC) lose his job in doing it. I believe all of these things to be true.

  117. spoiler says:

    wheatnoil:
    Also, I hesitate to share much of the New Jersey data I’m tracking since I’m only 4 games in so it’s a pretty small sample size to draw any conclusions from. However, so far, at least in the four games I tracked, Larsson actually has more zone exits than Greene, more primary assists on zone exits and more total zone exits (of any kind). In fact, he has significantly more controlled zone exits and total zone exits… like almost 50% more. I’m sure that won’t last with more games, but early returns are good.

    Also interesting is his D-zone passing. So far (again, super small sample), he leads the team in this. He rarely turns the puck over in the defensive zone. Usually when he touches the puck, the next person that touches it is on New Jersey… at a higher rate than other New Jersey D-men.

    I would bet that his more frequent handling of the puck holds up over the rest of your sample, and that in itself is encouraging.

    I have a funny feeling that Chia made a phone call to SportLogiq for their passing stats before pulling the trigger that sent away his stud winger.

  118. Lowetide says:

    Picturesque:
    OT: I watched the movie Moneyball last night (2nd viewing) and I’m wondering who might be the Bill James of the hockey world? Is there an adequate comparable or does no one in hockey come close to the contribution of Bill James? (The amount of statistical innovations he devised).

    No. James combined real math ability with math creativity to gather valuable information, and then wrote like W.H. Auden when he put it down in pen.

  119. Wonder Llama says:

    JDï™:
    Harlequin, Streetheart, Prism, Platinum Blonde (asking for a friend), Chilliwack, Honeymoon Suite, Headpins, Manhattan Transfer (asking for Cameron).

    Edward Bear, Lighthouse, Harmonium, Nick Gilder

  120. npanciroli says:

    Lowetide: Yep. Agree with that for sure. If people have given up on Chiarelli, then I doubt they will come back. For me, I can see his route (dark side of the moon) and wish he had gone Hall-Demers, but he felt the defense needed a bigger solution.

    Felt to me Demers wasn’t an option and wasn’t going to sign here. Especially since the trade happened after carting him around Rexall (iirc).

    Hall Demers vs Lucic Larsson argument doesn’t work for me because of that.

    I think it may be Hall Hamonic/Trouba vs Lucic Larsson Nurse if the Nurse rumours are true. Oilers seem to be stubborn on using Nurse as a trade chip. (this is all guesswork)

  121. spoiler says:

    Wonder Llama: I remember seeing Toronto and iirc The Headpins (?) on something called the “lock up your sons” tour.

    For some reason Rough Trade wasn’t invited along on that one…

  122. Chachi says:

    wheatnoil:
    Also, I hesitate to share much of the New Jersey data I’m tracking since I’m only 4 games in so it’s a pretty small sample size to draw any conclusions from. However, so far, at least in the four games I tracked, Larsson actually has more zone exits than Greene, more primary assists on zone exits and more total zone exits (of any kind). In fact, he has significantly more controlled zone exits and total zone exits… like almost 50% more. I’m sure that won’t last with more games, but early returns are good.

    Also interesting is his D-zone passing. So far (again, super small sample), he leads the team in this. He rarely turns the puck over in the defensive zone. Usually when he touches the puck, the next person that touches it is on New Jersey… at a higher rate than other New Jersey D-men.

    Fascinating! Would love to hear what your final observations are. So far they seem contrary to the conclusions of “Cory West” former WHL player, U.S.A. hockey development coach, and junior scout.

  123. spoiler says:

    JDï™: Harlequin, Streetheart, Prism, Platinum Blonde (asking for a friend), Chilliwack, Honeymoon Suite, Headpins, Manhattan Transfer (asking for Cameron).

    Well you’ve already pulled QCK outta your ass (Dance!)… after that, it’s a cake walk.

  124. spoiler says:

    Am I the only one voting for Strange Advance…?

    Even the band name seems relevant.

  125. Gret99zky says:

    Tom Petty & The Heartbroken

  126. Picturesque says:

    Lowetide: No. James combined real math ability with math creativity to gather valuable information, and then wrote like W.H. Auden when he put it down in pen.

    Thanks LT! The wikipedia page on Bill James is an eye opening introduction. It sounds like he wrote a book a year, hahha. I know that Roger Neilson gets some credit for using “advanced stats”, but obviously it’s nothing like the math wiz stuff in sabermetrics.

  127. Bag of Pucks says:

    Wonder Llama: Edward Bear, Lighthouse, Harmonium, Nick Gilder

    Saga. Triumph. Coney Hatch. Slik Toxik, Age of Electric

  128. Woodguy says:

    Sooooooooo

    There are rumours about NJD listening to offers for Hall.

    CGY is one team that is interested.

    CGY still hasn’t come to a long term deal with a Gaudreau who is a LW from New Jersey.

    Gaudreau isn’t quite a “Burkie type player”

    Hall is a LW from Calgary and is a “Burkie type player”

    Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

    Watch NJD get Hamilton and Gaudreau for Hall and Severson.

  129. godot10 says:

    Demers has a 2nd pairing ceiling. At 28, getting better was probably not likely. McLellan was familiar with the player, and probably believed the same.

    Larsson is a young #3 on his way to being a #2 who was managing 1st line minutes already.

    Demers was never going to be the first option. He was always the last option if all else failed.

  130. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy:
    Sooooooooo

    There are rumours about NJD listening to offers for Hall.

    CGY is one team that is interested.

    CGY still hasn’t come to a long term deal with a Gaudreau who is a LW from New Jersey.

    Gaudreau isn’t quite a “Burkie type player”

    Hall is a LW from Calgary and is a “Burkie type player”

    Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

    Watch NJD get Hamilton and Gaudreau for Hall and Severson.

    I think that trade is a loss for New Jersey.

  131. JDï™ says:

    Wonder Llama: Edward Bear, Lighthouse, Harmonium, Nick Gilder

    Triumph, Max Webster, Heart, Bryan Adams (pre ’85), Ian Thomas, Pagliaro, April Wine, Foot In Cold Water, Red Rider, Teenage Head, Crowbar, Sweeny Todd, Frank Marino / Mahogany Rush.

  132. Lowetide says:

    Wonder Llama: Edward Bear, Lighthouse, Harmonium, Nick Gilder

    Crowbar, Mahogany Rush, Ocean, Gary & Dave, Eddie Schwarz, The Spoons, Parachute Club.

  133. JDï™ says:

    Bag of Pucks: Slik Toxik, Age of Electric

    Get off my lawn!

  134. Woodguy says:

    wheatnoil: I think that trade is a loss for New Jersey.

    me too

  135. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Crowbar, Mahogany Rush, Ocean, Gary & Dave, Eddie Schwarz, The Spoons, Parachute Club.

    Love The Spoons.

    Why haven’t I read “Men Without Hats” yet?

  136. Centre of attention says:

    Woodguy:
    Sooooooooo

    There are rumours about NJD listening to offers for Hall.

    CGY is one team that is interested.

    CGY still hasn’t come to a long term deal with a Gaudreau who is a LW from New Jersey.

    Gaudreau isn’t quite a “Burkie type player”

    Hall is a LW from Calgary and is a “Burkie type player”

    Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

    Watch NJD get Hamilton and Gaudreau for Hall and Severson.

    So you’ve been sitting in on my nightmares have you?

    Hall playing for the *spit* Flames is just…just…. *faints*

  137. Lowetide says:

    godot10:
    Demers has a 2nd pairing ceiling.At 28, getting better was probably not likely.McLellan was familiar with the player, and probably believed the same.

    Larsson is a young #3 on his way to being a #2 who was managing 1st line minutes already.

    Demers was never going to be the first option.He was always the last option if all else failed.

    Fair.

  138. YKOil says:

    Woodguy:
    Sooooooooo

    There are rumours about NJD listening to offers for Hall.

    CGY is one team that is interested.

    Watch NJD get Hamilton and Gaudreau for Hall and Severson.

    More like – watch Calgary get Hall and Severson for Hamilton and Gaudreau. Big win for Calgary.

    Even if Calgary has to throw in a pick that would hurt. Hurt a lot.

  139. Picturesque says:

    Woodguy:
    Sooooooooo

    There are rumours about NJD listening to offers for Hall.

    CGY is one team that is interested.

    CGY still hasn’t come to a long term deal with a Gaudreau who is a LW from New Jersey.

    Gaudreau isn’t quite a “Burkie type player”

    Hall is a LW from Calgary and is a “Burkie type player”

    Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

    Watch NJD get Hamilton and Gaudreau for Hall and Severson.

    That would be insane. And so very shitty. Taylor Hall the Calgary Flame? Even considering this possibility is a topsy-turvy spin that makes me nauseous. If the NJD trade Hall to the Flames, we can safely declare the start of bizarro world.

  140. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: Crowbar, Mahogany Rush, Ocean, Gary & Dave, Eddie Schwarz, The Spoons, Parachute Club.

    Larry Gowan, who is the current lead singer of Styx incidentally.

  141. Bag of Pucks says:

    JDï™: Get off my lawn!

    I won’t mention The Dudes who are playing the Needle tonight then! Or the Sheepdogs.

  142. Chachi says:

    Bag of Pucks: I won’t mention The Dudes who are playing the Needle tonight then! Or the Sheepdogs.

    54-40, National Velvet, The Pursuit of Happiness, Lee Aaron…

  143. JDï™ says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Actually I really like The Dudes and a lot of new music, it’s just that you rained on the 70s/80s theme.

  144. Bag of Pucks says:

    JDï™:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Actually I really like The Dudes and a lot of new music, it’s just that you rained on the 70s/80s theme.

    Gotcha.

    Fist, Pretty Rough, Guardian, Nash the Slash, The Santers, Jensen Interceptor, The Models

  145. Woodguy says:

    YKOil: More like – watch Calgary get Hall and Severson for Hamilton and Gaudreau.Big win for Calgary.

    Even if Calgary has to throw in a pick that would hurt.Hurt a lot.

    Yeah, sentiment came out backwards.

    Calgary wins that trade.

  146. Woodguy says:

    Chachi: 54-40, National Velvet, The Pursuit of Happiness, Lee Aaron…

    54-40 were always fun to watch.

    Never stopped touring.

    I think I saw them 6 times in 16 months when I lived in Calgary in the mid 90’s.

  147. JDï™ says:

    FM.

  148. Chachi says:

    Woodguy: 54-40 were always fun to watch.

    Never stopped touring.

    I think I saw them 6 times in 16 months when I lived in Calgary in the mid 90’s.

    They were pretty great live.

  149. Centre of attention says:

    *plugs ears* La la la la la la Hall won’t be a Flame la la la la la *curls into fetal position, pulls shirt over head and begins rocking back and forth* la la la la la la

    Sorry, just trying to cope here guys. I may actually lose my mind completely if Hall gets to terrorize us wearing a vile Flames sweater.

  150. Wonder Llama says:

    Well, where’s the cut-off for nostalgia?

    Grapes of Wrath? Martha and the Muffins? Skinny Puppy?

    Has to be before I Mother Earth, Our Lady Peace, and Sloan, right?

  151. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: Parachute Club

    Hated Parachute Club. Could never understand the airplay they got. Reminds me of when Quarterflash knocked Centerfold off the top of the charts, and Harden my Heart etc were played endlessly, and I’m thinking, “Really? 20 years from now we’ll still be hearing Centerfold and I’m pretty sure Quarterflash will be a quarterflash in the pan”.

    35 years later…

  152. Wonder Llama says:

    spoiler: Hated Parachute Club.Could never understand the airplay they got.Reminds me of when Quarterflash knocked Centerfold off the top of the charts, and Harden my Heart etc were played endlessly, and I’m thinking, “Really?20 years from now we’ll still be hearing Centerfold and I’m pretty sure Quarterflash will be a quarterflash in the pan”.

    35 years later…

    Canadian content rules on the radio.

    Heard “Harden My Heart” and “Doing it Right On the Wrong Side of Town” and “She’s Got To Keep Her 88s Straight” over and over and over.

  153. Bag of Pucks says:

    Wonder Llama:
    Well, where’s the cut-off for nostalgia?

    Grapes of Wrath? Martha and Muffins? Skinny Puppy?

    Has to be before I Mother Earth, Our Lady Peace, and Sloan, right?

    When it comes to discussions of Canadian rock, and I’m sure Gmoney will back me on this, the guidepost is Before Rush / After Rush.

  154. Chachi says:

    Wonder Llama:
    Well, where’s the cut-off for nostalgia?

    It begins and ends with Gino Vanelli

  155. spoiler says:

    Maybe songs that became bigger hits as covers?

    Fleetwood Mac’s Black Magic Woman

    Small Faces’s Tin Soldier (well in Canada)
    Still love listening to it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3rLF-QAS67I

    Joni’s This Flight Tonight

    Dobson’s Morning Dew (covered by the entire planet)

    5 Man Electrical’s Signs

    etc.

    Copy the flavour of the day… Detroit model, Pitt, LA, Chicago…

  156. Bag of Pucks says:

    Chachi: It begins and ends with Gino Vanelli

    Ultimate cheese but I have a feeling that Italian lad got laid like carpet back in the day.

  157. spoiler says:

    Wonder Llama: Canadian content rules on the radio.

    Heard “Harden My Heart” and “Doing it Right On the Wrong Side of Town” and “She’s Got To Keep Her 88s Straight” over and over and over.

    Except Quarterflash was from the USA. Maybe they had a Canuck producer or something.

  158. spoiler says:

    The Kings… Are Here!

    Wrong team?

  159. Chachi says:

    Bag of Pucks: Ultimate cheese but I have a feeling that Italian lad got laid like carpet back in the day.

    In the Toronto area his popularity would have been measured somewhere between Frank Sinatra and the Pope.

  160. Bag of Pucks says:

    For this year’s RE, how about “Zeppelin Lawsuits?” Gotta be 25 or so of those songs by now?

  161. Chachi says:

    Bag of Pucks: When it comes to discussions of Canadian rock, and I’m sure Gmoney will back me on this, the guidepost is Before Rush / After Rush.

    Rush might be more popular outside of Canada these days than in it.

  162. Bag of Pucks says:

    Chachi: In the Toronto area his popularity would have been measured somewhere between Frank Sinatra and the Pope.

    Love the image that conjures up. Chairman of the Board with a big hat. Well done.

  163. Wonder Llama says:

    spoiler: Except Quarterflash was from the USA.Maybe they had a Canuck producer or something.

    Ah yes. Well, the CRTC had(has?) strange guidelines for deciding what counts as Canadian.

  164. Bag of Pucks says:

    Chachi: Rush might be more popular outside of Canada these days than in it.

    Yes, they had good management.

  165. Chachi says:

    Bag of Pucks: Love the image that conjures up. Chairman of the Board with a big hat. Well done.

    Don’t forget the popemobile, this time in black of course.

  166. Bag of Pucks says:

    spoiler:
    The Kings… Are Here!

    Wrong team?

    Right team. Wrong system. We’re ‘dump n chase’ now, not ‘switch into glide.’

  167. Wonder Llama says:

    Bag of Pucks: Right team. Wrong system. We’re ‘dump n chase’ now, not ‘switch into glide.’

    Let’s just hope the beat doesn’t go on.

  168. Wonder Llama says:

    Great. Now I’m on youtube listening to classic Canadian rock instead of researching NAFTA and TPP.

    Just got through some Doucette. Momma let that boy…

  169. Blackwolf says:

    Darkroom, recorded in Edmonton

  170. G Money says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    Here’s the four players you wanted. Because of the new format I’m using, I put it in a downloadable .xls file for you (sometimes the TOI comes out with an extra :00 at the end): https://app.box.com/s/pfgnmo6h9nphg53i7m2wv02v2mf3vrh4

    All of them have played enough to give reasonable validity to the metrics, IMO. Out of that group, DeMelo looks very intriguing.

    Let me know if you have any questions.

    WG and I are keeping all of this under our hat as we continue to work on it, so please don’t publicly distribute the file, but I will continue to run a player or small group of players on request.

  171. G Money says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Of this, there can be no doubt, nor question.

    In this or any other universe.

  172. JimmyV1965 says:

    Centre of attention: You nailed it man. I enjoy your posts and would hate to lose your input. You’re passionate about your ideas, and that is not a bad thing.

    I agree. And I think we’re all hoping chia is way smarter than us and everything falls in place. I think I’ve said this already, but I do believe chia has a clear vision of where he wants this team to go, which is the biggest issue facing old mngt.

  173. Chachi says:

    Wonder Llama:
    Great. Now I’m on youtube listening to classic Canadian rock instead of researching NAFTA and TPP.

    Just got through some Doucette. Momma let that boy…

    NAFTA and the TPP? Why not do some light reading on OECD transfer pricing rules while you are at it?

  174. JimmyV1965 says:

    Blackwolf:
    stush18,

    I wouldn’t get to worked up over this. After 10 years of losing, most fans have to great of an emotional attachment to some players.Chia is playing chess, a lot of folks are trying to view it as a checker game.You are correct, lucic absolutelyfactors into the hall trade. Most people don’t want to see it or hear it though. It’s much simpler to look at it as a one for one and lose our collective minds.I’m a huge hall fan, most nights he was the only thing worth watching.But I would rather watch wins rather hall if that’s what it took.

    When people say the Lucic signing was all part of the Hall trade it drives me kinda nutty. This is purely spin developed after the trade. Hall was not traded for Lucic. Period. It is possible and probably quite good for the Oil if they were both on the team.

  175. JimmyV1965 says:

    Centre of attention: Bingo.

    Heres my conundrum though. Is it possible to not like the Hall trade, but also think Hall-Demers was not the answer? Asking for a friend.

    LOL. That’s exactly where I’m at. Very happy we missed on Demers.

  176. Wonder Llama says:

    Chachi: NAFTA and the TPP? Why not do some light reading on OECD transfer pricing rules while you are at it?

    Oh, I was all over the OECD, BLS, ILO, IMF…

    Now I’m just April Wine and Chilliwack.

  177. Chachi says:

    Wonder Llama: Oh, I was all over the OECD, BLS, ILO, IMF…

    Now I’m just April Wine and Chilliwack.

    I sympathize with your plight.

  178. VanIsleOil says:

    Pointed Sticks, Moe Berg with Troc 59. Riv Rock Room circa 1982

  179. JimmyV1965 says:

    wheatnoil:
    Also, I hesitate to share much of the New Jersey data I’m tracking since I’m only 4 games in so it’s a pretty small sample size to draw any conclusions from. However, so far, at least in the four games I tracked, Larsson actually has more zone exits than Greene, more primary assists on zone exits and more total zone exits (of any kind). In fact, he has significantly more controlled zone exits and total zone exits… like almost 50% more. I’m sure that won’t last with more games, but early returns are good.

    Also interesting is his D-zone passing. So far (again, super small sample), he leads the team in this. He rarely turns the puck over in the defensive zone. Usually when he touches the puck, the next person that touches it is on New Jersey… at a higher rate than other New Jersey D-men.

    Geez, that’s good to hear even if it’s a small sample. I was kinda rattled after reading the Cult of Oil article.

  180. G Money says:

    A couple of days ago, Woodguy and I were talking about the course of events that destroyed the teams 2015-2016 season.

    He was trying to tie the events of the year (e.g. injuries) to the Corsica xGF (expected goals) game by game data.

    The raw data is too volatile, so he wanted to use a 25 game rolling average to smooth out the data and look for the real trends, a fairly common approach.

    Unfortunately, this has two drawbacks: the curve doesn’t start until 25 games in, and it tends to smooth out most of the in-season variation. It’s more useful for looking at multi-season trends.

    A 10-game rolling average follows the season better, but is a pretty jumpy curve given how volatile the underlying data is … and it doesn’t start until 12.5% of the season is already over.

    I told him about a new algorithm I’ve adopted, called a guassian smoother (adapted from signal processing techniques).

    Here’s some comparison curves I threw out on Twitter:
    xGF%: http://i.imgur.com/2U6rgP1.png
    xGF60: http://i.imgur.com/tlqYdgH.png
    xGA60: http://i.imgur.com/XwprdLN.png

    As smooth as the 25MA, and as quick (or quicker) than the 10MA, and no delay.

  181. Ryan says:

    wheatnoil: Hah, more like with great disorganization comes great running around like a chicken with your head cut off.

    I think they cut that line from Spiderman.

    Yes. I just meant that I’m excited to see your work.

  182. Ryan says:

    Okay guys, I have a quick update.

    First, the set of markers for red flags for elite, average, and poor puck movers… I’m just looking for visual trends and would need someone else to do the hard word of actually running the numbers to verify…

    1. P/60 5v5. It it’s over 1 during the course of a season or major portion thereof,yes, this defensemen can move the puck. Low numbers suggest poor puck moving ability.

    2. A2/a1 ratio. Not terribly discerning and you have to look at multiple years, but it can be a red flag. If the defensemen has > 1 p/60, this does not apply. If the defenseman has an a2/a1 ratio less than 1 over multiple years, be afraid.

    3. Toi/game rank at 5v5. With some exceptions like the Edmonton Oilers who the make decisions not based on winning hockey games, coaches tend to deploy their best defensemen the most toi at 5v5. This was a red flag during Fayne’s glory years in Jersey where he floated a blue bubble in the top left quadrant of the Vollman yet was only 5th and 4rth 5v5 toi/60.

    4. Ratios. Keep reading

    Solving the Fayne-Schultz paradox.

    Fayne’s last two seasons in Jersey

    Fayne’s jersey days are tricky. Have a look back at his Vollman from his last years there. It’s a wonder to look at.

    1. His p/60 ranged from 0.52 to 0.6. Under 1, so no exemptions. Certainly not terrific range either.

    2. Toi/60 he was 5th and 4rth as stated.

    3. A2/a1 ratio was greater than1 both years.

    4. Compare toi/60 to his most common linemate and you can already guess it is significantly less.

    6. Compare ratios of A2/a1 of his most common line mate, Greene, and it’s also significantly less which suggests Greene was the puck mover. Fayne’s was slightly over 1 and Green’s was between 3-5!

    Schultz. Last 2 seasons excluding last year since he played for two teams.

    1. 0.86 then 0.75 p/60. No exemptions.
    2. Toi/60 5v5. He was 1 and 2 because Oilers.
    3. Fails the A2/A1 ratio test both years.
    4. Played mostly with Ference in 13-14 then Klefbomb in 14-15. Led toi in 13-14 on Oilers and was close behind Klefbomb the following year. Agains, because Oilers.
    5. Both Ference and Klembim had a2/a1 > 2 while Schultz’s was <1suggesting that he relied on them to move the puck.

    Maybe there's something here or maybe I woke up too early today and couldn't fall back asleep.

  183. Ryan says:

    Larsson’s last two years.

    1.last year he had a 0.6 p/60. No exemption. Year prior. 1.16. Exception lol?

    2. Last year was #1 toi/60, was forth the year prior.

    3. Still a2/a1 ratio above 1 both years.

    4.played mostly with Greene both years. Slightly more toi/60 at evens than Grrene last year. Big gap two years ago.

    5. His A1/A2 ratio was better than Greene’s marginally last year!!! The year prior Greene’s is > 2:1 while Larsson’s is just over 1 suggesting Greene was the puck mover.

    Good news is this suggests that he was relied on to move the puck last season.

  184. Woodguy says:

    Ryan,

    A couple things jump out at me.

    1) 1pt/60

    Only 26 Dmen achieved that last year. That’s a really low number and excludes many

    I’m not sure pts/60 measures puck moving. It may measure “how active and good are they in the ozone”

    2) A2/A1

    A2’s show a lot of volatility from year to year so you might be measuring noise.

    A1 showing “puck moving” would dictate that their outlet pass went to a guy who scored, which is a rare way for goals to happen.

    I would say that A1 also “mostly” measures “activity and ability in the ozone”

    Some teams use their Dmen actively in the ozone and some don’t so there are probably team effects in their as well.

    I’m not sure we can measure puck moving through points.

    My first guess is that corsi for (cf/60) is probably better as you are measuring many more events and those events don’t have to include the Dman touching the puck in the ozone.

  185. Ryan says:

    Barrie’s last two seasons

    1. P/ 60 was 0.99 and 1.55. Except both years. I’m convinced that if a dman can post >1 p/60 over the major portion of a season, he can transition the puck.

    2. Toi. 1 last year and 5 the year prior.

    3. A2/A1 ratios. When player post >1 ppg it seems to break the model.

    4. He played more minutes than his linemates.

  186. Ryan says:

    Woodguy:
    Ryan,

    A couple things jump out at me.

    1) 1pt/60

    Only 26 Dmen achieved that last year. That’s a really low number and excludes many

    I’m not sure pts/60 measures puck moving.It may measure “how active and good are they in the ozone”

    2) A2/A1

    A2’s show a lot of volatility from year to year so you might be measuring noise.

    A1 showing “puck moving” would dictate that their outlet pass went to a guy who scored, which is a rare way for goals to happen.

    I would say that A1 also “mostly”measures “activity and ability in the ozone”

    Some teams use their Dmen actively in the ozone and some don’t so there are probably team effects in their as well.

    I’m not sure we can measure puck moving through points.

    My first guess is that corsi for (cf/60) is probably better as you are measuring many more events and those events don’t have to include the Dman touching the puck in the ozone.

    I was writing a set of criteria to overlay on a player to help predict if they are good at moving the puck.

    The 1 point per sixty was an arbitrary cut off that I set meaning I think defensemen who can score above this level are very likely able to move the puck well. I can’t think of anyone who score above this level who is poor at transitioning the puck. It doesn’t mean that it’s correct, but it was a premise that I set.

    Show me an example of players that’s above this level but are poor at moving the puck over the major portion of an NHL season.

    Also, I didn’t mean that a player had to score >1 point per sixty to be included as potentially a good to excellent puck mover. Just that if they are above this level, I don’t think there is cause for concern about their puck moving ability.

    I looked at cf60 as it was one of my original ideas. It seems to sway too much by team. It also isn’t useful to discern anything between two players on the same pairing who play significant minutes together. Also, Fayne was excellent by this measure in Jersey.

    Again, I was looking for patterns in data to find predictive possibilities.

    They all could be wrong. I am just throwing ideas out there. 🙂

  187. Ryan says:

    Also, I agree that the A2/A1 ratio could be just noise. it was something that jumped out at me looking at small set of players.

    For players that produce a high number of primary assists and points, the A2/A1 ratio definitely doesn’t seem useful.

  188. Ryan says:

    Also, Schultz is the classic example a guy who’s good at moving the puck in the ozone but not great at transiting the puck as you know. So far, he’s never spent enough time in the ozone to crack 1p/60 even during the lockout shortened season where he came close.

  189. frjohnk says:

    Ryan,

    https://hockey-graphs.com/2015/12/18/passing-project-data-release-volume-i/

    You might want to take a look at this. It lists passes that lead to a shot attempt and labeled are
    A1- last pass before shot
    A2- 2nd last pass before shot
    A3- 3rd last pass before shot

    Now a person can go through the data and find out where the pass was made from and what kind of pass it was and there are other things such as did it lead to a shot on net, scoring chance, was it an oddman rush etc.
    Im too busy to really mine the data but I did have a quick peak at New Jersey.

    I did a quick run through to see how Larsson and Greene faired here. And if I did the calculation correctly, Greene made something like 145 passes in this sample size while Larsson was only about 20 less. ( I did the calculation last night, lost the numbers, dont have time before work to do it again)

    It doesnt tell us the rate of success for pass attempts, but it gives me an idea that Greene was not the only moving the puck in that pair.

  190. Genjutsu says:

    Some thing to consider is that Larsson was, for quite a while, the consensus number one during his draft year.

    He fell to the Devils, who won the lottery that year.

    This is a very good player.

    He has a very good pedigree.

    He has a very good track record.

    Much like the Reinhardt trade a year ago the only real issue is the price paid.

  191. Ryan says:

    frjohnk:
    Ryan,

    https://hockey-graphs.com/2015/12/18/passing-project-data-release-volume-i/

    You might want to take a look at this.It lists passes that lead to a shot attempt and labeled are
    A1- last pass before shot
    A2- 2nd last pass before shot
    A3- 3rd last pass before shot

    Now a person can go through the data and find out where the pass was made from and what kind of pass it was and there are other things such as did it lead to a shot on net, scoring chance, was it an oddman rush etc.
    Im too busy to really mine the data but I did have a quick peak at New Jersey.

    I did a quick run through to see how Larsson and Greene faired here.And if I did the calculation correctly, Greene made something like 145 passes in this sample size while Larsson was only about 20 less.( I did the calculation last night, lost the numbers, dont have time before work to do it again)

    It doesnt tell us the rate of success for pass attempts, but it gives me an idea that Greene was not the only moving the puck in that pair.

    I’ll take a look when I can.

    My first thought are number passes might not be useful.

    If you’re Laco Smid collecting the dump in, you”re going to get credited with a pass every time you look to make one to Visnovsky who will be the guy transitioning the puck up the ice.

    Yet you’re never going to make an actual breakout pass.

  192. frjohnk says:

    Ryan: I’ll take a look when I can.

    My first thought are number passes might not be useful.

    If you’re Laco Smid collecting the dump in, you”re going to get credited with a pass every time you look to make one to Visnovsky who will be the guy transitioning the puck up the ice.

    Yet you’re never going to make an actual breakout pass.

    I agree about the number of passes. if you have player A try to attempt 200 passes but only make 125 while player B attempts 125 passes and makes 110, in this list player A is better because attempts are not recorded.

    They do list where the pass is made from to where it is received and I believe who received it, so a person can find out who is making the breakout pass.

    I don’t think the passing data project is mind blowing but may have some uses.

  193. GCW_69 says:

    stush18,

    Are you Chiarelli ‘s mom?

  194. GCW_69 says:

    stush18: On April 24th, 2015, chiarelli was hired. He then hired Todd mclellan on May 19th. Todd mclellan, who studied under Babcock, who is universally described as an ELITE coach. You’re lying if you didn’t think he was an unreal coach while he was in San Jose. Many here claimed he was the reason for there success.

    If you read the sharks blogs from before and around the time TMac was fired in San Jose and hired in Edmonton there was good evidence that TMac had his flaws as a coach. The realistic expectation of TMac was that he would be a much better coach than the Oilers have had in the recent past, and more specifically that he would be better than Nelson.

    If you were expecting elite, you probably didn’t do your homework.

  195. square_wheels says:

    So I’ve learned that you can’t shit talk Shane Doan on Twitter without half of Arizona losing their minds. Apparently “the Captain” does no wrong on the ice, even though 29 other teams would tell you he’s one of the dirtiest and cheapest players in the league.

    First game against the Yotes this year, Lucic needs to remind Doan his usual slew footing, blindside and late hits are no longer tolerated.

    How the narrative around Doan that’s he’s this “Class Act” only applies to his off-ice activity. On-ice, he’s one the worst.

    Am I alone in this assessment ?

  196. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    GCW_69,

    The correct narative around TMac was as follows:

    1. He’s a good coach.
    2. Maybe not elite.
    3. He’s certainly not a bad coach.
    4. if/when the Oilers are bad in the future we won’t fire the coach. We will fix the god damn f*#king roster.

  197. Woodguy says:

    Ryan,


    Show me an example of players that’s above this level but are poor at moving the puck over the major portion of an NHL season.

    There’s only 24 of em who can.

    I know it was an arbitrary cut off, but its far too exclusive.

    I looked at cf60 as it was one of my original ideas. It seems to sway too much by team. It also isn’t useful to discern anything between two players on the same pairing who play significant minutes together. Also, Fayne was excellent by this measure in Jersey.

    That’s why you use RelCF/60 and pay close attention to good teams who can have good players with slightly negative Rel, they will tell you where to set your line in the sand.

    Also,

    Fayne played with Greene.

    None of these metrics will exclude the partner effect.

  198. GCW_69 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    GCW_69,

    The correct narative around TMac was as follows:

    1.He’s a good coach.
    2. Maybe not elite.
    3.He’s certainly not a bad coach.
    4.if/when the Oilers are bad in the future we won’t fire the coach.We will fix the god damn f*#king roster.

    I am with you in the first three. I am less convinced on the fourth, at least the latter half of it. They are still a veteran two way C or RW (Versteeg/Pirri), another RHD with PP ability who won’t cost Nuge (Franson, Miller, etc), and real back up goalie (Ramo, Enroth) away from having an acceptable roster for the fall, let alone fixed one.

  199. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    GCW_69,

    Oh I agree, it’s not fixed (it’s better). I’m just saying clearly we aren’t blaming the coach anymore.

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