BITE THE BULLET

by Lowetide

I am about to fight an uphill battle. Arguing the Edmonton Oilers should slow-play the phenom that is Jesse Puljujarvi is probably not going to go well—but I do think that should be the mindset heading into training camp. Make JP earn the job, full stop. If he isn’t ready, 20 games—or 40, or 60—could benefit this young man and the Oilers in a big way. Now, back to regular programming.

OILERS ASSUMED ROSTER

PROJECTED LINEUP JUL 13

  • This is the lineup I think we may see opening night (all things being equal).
  • Todd McLellan may find a need to break up the top line at some point, but I bet that 1line is going to get a real chance to run together.
  • The 2line could go any number of ways—Leon could be on the wing—but Jesse Puljujarvi is a dynamic player with size. I think the Oilers, God love them, will give the young Finn every chance to slide in on a skill line.
  • The 3line could be a high-scoring trio if they can face the soft parade for big segments of the season. The line could also help offense the other way if things do not go well. I will tell you that (for me) there are major concerns about this line—and my ideal roster (below) addresses it.
  • I like Mark Letestu on the fourth line, and he can help on the PP. Matt Hendricks and Zack Kassian are the veterans on the line, I would like to see more speed on the wings.
  • I am generally fine with the defense. The top two pairings appear to be solid to good, and the third pair has Davidson with Nurse either settling in or replaced (and I do think the Oilers will send him down if he is ineffective).
  • Talbot will be the starter and Gustavsson will be the backup opening night. Will that tandem be in place all year?

LOWETIDE PREFERRED ROSTER (5×5/60)

LT ROSTER

  • Nail Yakupov on the McDavid line will not happen—but I think it should, at least until there is some legit trade value. Look, I get the issue with Nail, he makes many brain fart moves. He is a prime example of a player who has one year’s experience four times—as opposed to having four years experience. I look at it from the Oilers pov—they need three lines who can produce, and Nail can produce with McDavid.
  • The McDavid factor is certainly in play here—Edmonton can make life more difficult for opponents by spreading out talent—and 97 scored well with Yak in 2015-16. If Nail can have success, maybe Edmonton saves 10 in the months following the Hall trade. A bizarre script, but it is possible.
  • Pouliot—Nuge—Eberle has been successful in the past and gives Todd McLellan a line he can count on from the opening faceoff.
  • Leon’s trio has one experienced hand in Maroon, I placed Puljujarvi here to help the speed. The more I stare at this roster, the more speed is a real worry.
  • The fourth line is too slow with Hendricks, so I moved Pakarinen up. You may hate it, but I think this is likely the season Hendricks becomes a part time player. Adding Kassian to the roster gives the team too many slow wingers.
  • The key to the defense as constructed here is the top pairing. If Klefbom—Larsson can play the tough opposition at par, that should mean the second pairing can push. Brandon Davidson as the anchor for the third pairing is a pretty nice position to be in.
  • I like Oesterle over Fraser.
  • Laurent Brossoit was the reason (imo) Edmonton went cheap on the backup, might as well give him the job from the start.

AAPELI RASANEN

rasanen capture 1

  • The Black Book: Rasanen is a hard-working right-shot two-way center who plays a sound game in the defensive zone and doesn’t mind sacrificing his body to make plays, as he is willing to engage in one and one battles. He’s got an active defensive stick, can cause turnover and is a quite good penalty killer. Rasanen’s skating is only average, he can bring the puck up ice and has good enough vision to make plays. His puck skills are just OK and despite the improvement in his offensive game it is more realistic to project him as a checking forward at the next level, as he lacks a dynamic element to his game. Source
  • Ryan Biech, Canucks Army:  The right-handed centre possesses the whole package, he can skate well, he has good awareness and is adept at burying his chances. If he is available for the Canucks or any team for that matter in the late second or early third round, they would be very wise to add him to their prospect pool. It’s possible that after being selected this June in the draft, that he will play next season in the CHL via the import draft. Source
  • Chris Dilks, SB Nation: I think we’ve already covered the best case scenario, but even if Rasanen doesn’t meet those lofty expectations, I think he’s capable of playing center on a lower line at the NHL level and being a smart, effective two-way center. Rasanen will come over to North American to play in the USHL next season and then presumably will pick up a scholarship offer to play NCAA hockey, meaning the team that drafts him will get ample time to let him develop. Source
  • Corey Pronman: He’s a very smart center who can slow the game down and create chances while appearing to exert minimal effort. He can deke defenders, but he’s more effective making quick passes and beating opponents with pace. Rasanen is at his best as a playmaker, but he takes his shots when he gets a lane and has a decent cannon when he does so. His skating is his most noticeable hole to me; his top gear is below average, and he can have trouble pushing defenders back too far off the blue line on a rush. He is quite good defensively, often being leaned on for critical defensive situations and faceoffs.
  • Pronman had him No. 56.

New Jersey is one weird team, and that’s for sure. In watching Larsson, I think we can draw a reasonable thumbnail sketch. He is a good coverage defender, clearly has ability to win battles and clear garbage from the slot. He has a ‘good stick’ which is an accepted hockey term while also being somewhat ribald in terms of verbal.

I like his passing, and rate that as a big area for defensemen. I do not think this is a player who is going to scoot out of the zone with the puck ala Lubo, but a first rate tape-to-tape pass is effective as well.

We are going to need 40 games, folks, and the truth is it may take one full year to adjust. You should also be prepared for a very negative reaction to Adam Larsson, as people evaluate defenders differently. Adam Larsson is a far better player than Mark Fayne—and is younger—but much of his value will come from the defensive side of the game. If you don’t like Mark Fayne, you may not like Adam Larsson. I hope you will join me in giving him 40 games before passing judgement on the player.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A very busy day on the show, begins at 10am on TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. I will ask some questions about the new G Money/McLeod numbers, and we will discuss the goaltending situation.
  • Tom Lynn, Veritas Hockey. The NHL expansion draft next summer has impact now, with agents and players positioning themselves to take advantage of 50 new pro jobs in the fall of 2017.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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Bling

Woodguy: Yeah, but putting a good player at the top of the dchart pushes everyone down and that’s sooooooo important.

Not that I agree with the trade, but understanding his reasoning with Lucic in the bag is pretty important.

I would like to know how any human being can trade Blake Wheeler and Tyler Seguin, lose both trades, then trade Taylor Hall WITHOUT GETTING PK SUBBAN.

It was like the hockey gods were like, “oh, you’re going the stupid route again. Well we like your moustache, why don’t we throw you a bone…oh, you don’t want it (collectively shrug their shoulders).”

N64

Jethro Tull: Yeah……um, the temp fix was Demers at $5.5M x 5yrs.NMC, so can’t get rid of him in expansion either.

(I know he cost Florida $4.5M, but he reportedly wanted more from Edmonton.)

Thing about temp fixes is that there are more of them.

Bling

speeds: Has anyone successfully quantified whether 1min TOI for a D is as valuable as 1min TOI for a F?

Intuitively, you would think a D.

Even a third pairing D could be expected to play 15 minutes a night, which is as much as a second line forward. A single injury to a top 4 guy could mean your 3rd pairing D is playing close to 20 minutes per night.

The other thing is that it is much harder to hide flawed D than it is to hide a flawed forward.

stevezie

rickithebear,

I’m going to be honest: I don’t know what you mean.

Jethro Tull

~ Hall of Shame ~: Hall+lucic+chia’s temp fix > pouliot+lucic+larsson.

Let’s not call Chia a liar. He said he had temp fix D options but preferredto move a major asset now if the right deal was there. He’ll be judged on this deal not lucic.

Yeah……um, the temp fix was Demers at $5.5M x 5yrs. NMC, so can’t get rid of him in expansion either.

(I know he cost Florida $4.5M, but he reportedly wanted more from Edmonton.)

Cameron

Doug McLachlan,

There are reasons to strongly consider putting Puljujarvi on the roster;

– He’s more than likely good enough already. If he is obviously better than two or three guys at his position, by what logic is he helped by spending his time beating up the AHL?

– Another factor to consider is the teams relationship to Puljujarvi. If he’s NHL caliber now, and after training camp he would know this himself, then when the Oilers park him in the AHL to prevent him from esrning his bonuses when lesser players get ice time, you may get a ‘Drouin’ situation. Why buy in to a team that won’t give you what you demonstrably earned?

The reason to assign him to the AHL is if he isn’t ready, and the other RW are actually better, but I don’t expect either of those things to be true.

N64

who: Bingo

I would also add that Hall wasn’t a consensus #1 pick in his draft year and Larson was projected by some to be number 1 in his draft year so maybe the value of these two isn’t as far apart as some people feel. At least if we are using draft pedigree to evaluate players.
I still feel there is some strong emotional ties by some fans towards Hall because he was the first of the 1OV’s.
I also feel that some people are discounting Larson because fancystats haven’t figured out a way to quantify the value of defending.

Good gracious. That’s the Yak for Larsson argument. It means nothing.

N64

Ducey: It seems to be a simple as saying Hall > Larsson for you, despite the fact that Chia had to do something to improve the team, and despite the fact that Hall < Lucic, Larsson.

Hall+lucic+chia’s temp fix > pouliot+lucic+larsson.

Let’s not call Chia a liar. He said he had temp fix D options but preferred to move a major asset now if the right deal was there. He’ll be judged on this deal not lucic.

who

ACalgaryOilFan:
knighttown,

I don’t post here often but the Hall trade has made me think about BPA as a draft policy. I have often read people stating you go with BPA with the idea of simply moving the surplus of talent for whatever you need. I wonder if we now have witnessed what the potential risk and cost of making that sort of exchange is. To be fair the Oilers have been poorly executing as far as BPA is concerned but I think this is ultimately where we have ended up. Other teams new we had a surplus and new that the market was on there side. There is no risk for them in not trading a good defensemen but there is a lot more risk for the Oilers in not acquiring one.

Second and sort of related is this also not a reflection in the cost of changing the team structure from Wings-In approach or high end offensive or what ever you want to call it to a more back-end approach from the net out approach.

Either way I can’t see how PC would get out of this without an overpay. He can’t draft his way out (too long), free agency (too big a cap hit and the likelihood of high end talent being available is rare) so he is left with making trades which everyone can see coming from a mile away. I think PC knows he over paid, I think new the risk but out of all the options available it was the only one where he had a clear option to at least moderately fill in the gap it would create (Lucic).

I think we should also not expect outliers to consistently occur (the Leddy/Boychuk deal). It hasn’t happened since that I can recall so banking on better deals is not realistic. I got make the calls what is out there. Plus from what I can tell PC was talking to everyone.

I would also add if this were 6 years ago I don’t PC would approach building the team the same way. Right now there is no time left, so unfortunately he is left with being overly aggressive. Unless we all want to wait another 5-8 years to draft and develop our defense, we will have to give up more to get what we need. I also think that we won;t see another overpay as we have eliminated some of the pressure to make deals that don’t line up value wise.

Just my two cents.

Bingo

I would also add that Hall wasn’t a consensus #1 pick in his draft year and Larson was projected by some to be number 1 in his draft year so maybe the value of these two isn’t as far apart as some people feel. At least if we are using draft pedigree to evaluate players.
I still feel there is some strong emotional ties by some fans towards Hall because he was the first of the 1OV’s.
I also feel that some people are discounting Larson because fancystats haven’t figured out a way to quantify the value of defending.

vinotintazo

Man… what is wrong with this world?

Bag of Pucks

Ducey: So you are criticizing Chia for not making an alternative trade/ move that you don’t know existed/ exists and with respect to the timing, which you know nothing about.

In other words, you are assuming whatever Chia did was incompetent until its proven otherwise by some sort of disclosure of all options by Chia.

It seems to be a simple as saying Hall > Larsson for you, despite the fact that Chia had to do something to improve the team, and despite the fact that Hall < Lucic, Larsson.

That is unreasonable.

You can’t even point to a realistic option. You know like they should have got Weber, or PK, or some other RHD. You know why? Because there are no other options that are obvious. We have gone over all of them all summer.

We thought Hamonic was an option. Its apparent that the new NYI are willing to spend to the cap and that’s not an option. Its become pretty clear Barrie wasn’t/ isn’t going to be an option. Shattenkirk didn’t want to sign here. There are no other options.

And you can’t say Demers/ Hall was an option. Because you don’t know that Demers would sign here. In fact, it seems apparent that he wouldn’t and that this was the real impetus for the trade. Chia’s reaction during the Lucic presser told us all we needed to know on that.

And just waiting until September when a Leddy came loose? Look at the Cap of all the teams. Its right there at Capfriendly, man. There is no mystery. No team is in a position where they have to jettison a RHD to get under the cap. The only one that will be under the gun at that point in September will be the Oilers, because they would be coming back with the same team and same problems as last year.

No doubt you would criticize them for that.

I’m criticizing him for the return on a single trade. The action itself and the resultant output. The ‘woulda, could, shoulda’s’ and every potential thing he could’ve done as an alternative are not germane to assessing that return in isolation imo. Job #1 of the manager is to maximize the value of the assets and you don’t do that selling them at discount rates.

The crux of this trade is you have to include ancillary factors like the supposed pressing RHD ‘need’ (which had existed for 10 years!) and Lucic signing to rationalize/justify the asset inequity on the Hall trade (i.e. the chess not checkers argument).

Again, read through your response above. Your entire justification boils down to, hey, we really needed a Dman! (which as I indicated further up the thread is the consistent thread in all justifications/rationalizations of the trade).

The starting point for understanding my argument is to appreciate that Chiarelli didn’t ‘need’ to make any trade right now unless it’s one that results in fair value. We all ‘wanted’ a Dman, but we didn’t ‘need’ it badly enough to buy it at this price, and especially for one who doesn’t project as a complete Dman with offensive upside. We traded a Ferrari for a dump truck, because we simply couldn’t figure out how to buy a dump truck otherwise and eventually we just gave up and paid a fortune for one.

ACalgaryOilFan

knighttown,

I don’t post here often but the Hall trade has made me think about BPA as a draft policy. I have often read people stating you go with BPA with the idea of simply moving the surplus of talent for whatever you need. I wonder if we now have witnessed what the potential risk and cost of making that sort of exchange is. To be fair the Oilers have been poorly executing as far as BPA is concerned but I think this is ultimately where we have ended up. Other teams new we had a surplus and new that the market was on there side. There is no risk for them in not trading a good defensemen but there is a lot more risk for the Oilers in not acquiring one.

Second and sort of related is this also not a reflection in the cost of changing the team structure from Wings-In approach or high end offensive or what ever you want to call it to a more back-end approach from the net out approach.

Either way I can’t see how PC would get out of this without an overpay. He can’t draft his way out (too long), free agency (too big a cap hit and the likelihood of high end talent being available is rare) so he is left with making trades which everyone can see coming from a mile away. I think PC knows he over paid, I think new the risk but out of all the options available it was the only one where he had a clear option to at least moderately fill in the gap it would create (Lucic).

I think we should also not expect outliers to consistently occur (the Leddy/Boychuk deal). It hasn’t happened since that I can recall so banking on better deals is not realistic. I got make the calls what is out there. Plus from what I can tell PC was talking to everyone.

I would also add if this were 6 years ago I don’t PC would approach building the team the same way. Right now there is no time left, so unfortunately he is left with being overly aggressive. Unless we all want to wait another 5-8 years to draft and develop our defense, we will have to give up more to get what we need. I also think that we won;t see another overpay as we have eliminated some of the pressure to make deals that don’t line up value wise.

Just my two cents.

Ducey

Bag of Pucks: One of your points is that no one criticizing the trade has identified a realistic alternative scenario to land the RHD. My point here is the same as the one made to stush last night when he suggested this has to occur to legitimize the criticism. I don’t agree. We’ll never be privy to all the options on the table so we’re left with judging him on his public actions. We don’t have to do his job better than him to criticize his work. The trade speaks for itself.

And, for the record, I see the timing of the trade as fully tied to the Lucic signing, and in fact, very much driving the trade. The alternative I’ve suggested is keeping Hall and waiting for a Boychuk/Leddyscenario when cap compliance forces some teams into ‘seller’ mode. If Lucic couldn’t be signed with Hall on the roster (i.e. Lucic was angling for the McDavid wing), then I don’t sign Lucic as it continues the pattern of making players pseudo guarantees without earning them. And yes, publicly they’re saying he’s not been guaranteed that slot, but that could easily be optics. Again, we’re not privy to what was discussed behind closed doors, but we do know Lucic mentioned being really excited about the chance to play with Connor.

And of course, the other option was Hall/Demers as opposed to Lucic/Larsson. Which one is better than the other? Depends on how good Larsson will be, and ultimately, that’s what Chia’s reputation rests on. He traded an elite offensive left winger for a defensive defenceman with questionable offensive upside. Tragic that the Oilers’ procurement strategy left the cupboards so bare of the latter, but the old saw is you don’t trade the ability to put the puck in the net for the ability to keep it out, and that may well hold true here. This is why Rob Zamuner’s don’t get picked for Team Canada anymore.

So you are criticizing Chia for not making an alternative trade/ move that you don’t know existed/ exists and with respect to the timing, which you know nothing about.

In other words, you are assuming whatever Chia did was incompetent until its proven otherwise by some sort of disclosure of all options by Chia.

It seems to be a simple as saying Hall > Larsson for you, despite the fact that Chia had to do something to improve the team, and despite the fact that Hall < Lucic, Larsson.

That is unreasonable.

You can't even point to a realistic option. You know like they should have got Weber, or PK, or some other RHD. You know why? Because there are no other options that are obvious. We have gone over all of them all summer.

We thought Hamonic was an option. Its apparent that the new NYI are willing to spend to the cap and that's not an option. Its become pretty clear Barrie wasn't/ isn't going to be an option. Shattenkirk didn't want to sign here. There are no other options.

And you can't say Demers/ Hall was an option. Because you don't know that Demers would sign here. In fact, it seems apparent that he wouldn't and that this was the real impetus for the trade. Chia's reaction during the Lucic presser told us all we needed to know on that.

And just waiting until September when a Leddy came loose? Look at the Cap of all the teams. Its right there at Capfriendly, man. There is no mystery. No team is in a position where they have to jettison a good RHD to get under the cap. The only one that will be under the gun at that point in September will be the Oilers, because they would be coming back with the same team and same problems as last year.

No doubt you would criticize them for that.

Woodguy

~ Hall of Shame ~: That’s where the singles were but we brought in the home run king to GM.

Yeah, but putting a good player at the top of the dchart pushes everyone down and that’s sooooooo important.

Not that I agree with the trade, but understanding his reasoning with Lucic in the bag is pretty important.

Woodguy

knighttown:
Woodguy,

Assume that when I say “no one ever notices…” that you are excluded. You don’t miss much my friend. That post is terrific. I had read it in the past but forgot about its existence or I would have referenced.

This, to me, is the THE key to the Oilers failure. Too many minutes given to below replacement level players or, as you point out, too few given to legit good players.

Loving the recent WoodMoney collaborations too.

Too kind KT.

I never try to assume anything.

Always great to read your stuff.

This WoodMoney stuff is going to change the way we evaluate players.

I’m pretty excited.

Woodguy

jonrmcleod:
Woodguy,

Usually things have to go just right (like a goalie going .940) for a team to win a Cup these days. I don’t know what would qualify someone as a “world class” GM, but he’s certainly not a Bozo like some seem to be implying.

Edit: And I’m not saying that you personally have done that.

I wasn’t implying he was a bozo at all.

That’s reading into it a lot.

The OP called Pete “World Class”

I pointed out a few data points that suggested he wasn’t.

Its a long way from “World Class” to bozo.

Those are your word, not mine and I actually resent you implying that.

You’re better than that Jon.

Oilspill

Having a good laugh at Staples et AL who figure we NEED another high end PMD. There are several issues with this mentality. A PMD doesn’t mean the guy can play DEFENSE. The big problem is we need balance and guys that can play effectivly in our zone to gain possession . No we don’t need( and couldn’t afford) to scoop a perpetual minus guy like Erik Karlsson. He plays like shit in his own zone. We got Sekara who hasn’t lived up to the hype or salary. Fayne who cant do either and Larson Nurse who can move it. We need a guy who can fight and get possession.

Bag of Pucks

Bruce McCurdy

It was a pulsating contest, my first live NHL playoff game.

Wow, what a way to start!

HT Joe

~ Hall of Shame ~: ~ I forget Hall picking them apart for the Flames in the division final. ~

I have been spending more and more time reading Devils blogs since the Hall trade, and while I would love to see both teams make the playoffs, I feel zero contempt for the ownership and management team out in New Jersey.

My personal nightmare scenario is me reaching the point where I finally can’t stand the team any longer, so I quit cheering for the Oilers after ~ 25 years of faithful fandom, only to have the team then become amazingly successful shortly thereafter.

*EDIT* As a fan, my faith could really use a strong season from the Oil.

N64

HeatTreaterJoe: Your nightmare scenario is relatively optimistic… it could be worse than that.

~ I forget Hall picking them apart for the Flames in the division final. ~

HT Joe

~ Hall of Shame ~: ~ And the nightmare scenario for the fan base would be that Larsson ends up second pairing with Reinhart 3 years down the road. JK ~

Your nightmare scenario is relatively optimistic… it could be worse than that.

mit167

I see the lines as

Lucic McD Yak – But it will probably be Eberle

Maroon RNH Ebs – But it will probably Pulijarvi

Pouliot Drai Pulijarvi – I know the spelling is wrong. I’ll learn it

Hendricks Letestu Paki / Kassian – Kassian will have to prove he can outplay Paki to make him a regular.

N64

knighttown:Although I must say, the Oilers have done a better job building 10 deep with guys who are interchangeable after about #3.

That’s not a compliment.

You could do a lot with 3 #4s. Not so much with 3 #7s.

knighttown

John Chambers: Nice list.

It’s seeing an entire season broken down by TOI like a visual picture – and it portends to any GM the importance of depth. I mean shit, if Adam Cracknell is playing 600 minutes / season, and 3rd pair Dmen are playing 700 minutes, it behooves a team to plan to play 9 Dmen and 16 forwards at least 400 minutes.

For this reason I like the idea of signing both Wisniewski and Gryba to fill out the spots for RD. If we can acquire Barrie for a reasonable cost, say Yak and Reinhart and a pick, then let’s go for it. But otherwise you can make amends by substituting 2nd pair Dmen with 3rd pair guys in the event of injury, and other major league replacement players to fill those spots as opposed to AHL players or rookies subjected to a Baptism by Fire.

I suggested this about 4-5 years ago. We spend way too much time worrying (and too much of our cap hit) about the Gazdics and Cracknells and Hendrixes when they don’t matter as much as Oesterle, Reinhart and Gryba. Although I must say, the Oilers have done a better job building 10 deep with guys who are interchangeable after about #3.

That’s not a compliment.

Bruce McCurdy

Bag of Pucks: Apologies for the oversight. I was too young and obviously too blinded by the brilliance of Gretz to remember the important contribution of ‘Gang Green.’ Will never forget Linseman’s OT dagger against us in Game 3 double OT though. The Flyers were dominant that year and despite it being a sweep, the young Oil gave them a real dogfight. That’s when I first realized we might have something really special here.‘The Rat’ of course made up for the dagger in later years with his important contributionsin the early Cup years.

Yeah, still remember that Linseman goal, 3:56 of the second overtime. Got a step on Colin Campbell (I think it was), beat Ron Low far (stick) side with a quick, accurate shot, and that was all she wrote.

Oilers had jumped to a 2-0 lead in that game in the first period on goals by Gretzky & Messier, but couldn’t muster a third against the stingy Pete Peeters in the Flyers’ cage.

It was a pulsating contest, my first live NHL playoff game.

N64

Bag of Pucks: I agree and I think that depends on A) how good Larsson becomes & B) how quickly Klefbom and Nurse elevate. If the latter two become top pairing material sooner rather than later, this team (and fanbase) will really regret the rush to deal Hall. I still think Nurse becomes a beast and the team’s true number one. His range and ability to close a gap is undeniable. He just needs positional coaching and adjustment to the pace of the NHL.

~ And the nightmare scenario for the fan base would be that Larsson ends up second pairing with Reinhart 3 years down the road. JK ~

N64

knighttown: It is fun to look at it that way and I often do but I didn’t just do per game for dramatic effect. The object of each game is to win each game and in many games the Adam Pardys of the world played more than Hall.

~ If you take TOI too far your would conclude the 6D is more important than the best forward. ~

Bag of Pucks

~ Hall of Shame ~: Actually he spoke for the trade in advance and he repeatedly referred to 2 approaches.. The ‘permanent’ fix or the ‘temporary fix’. He could have signed Lucic moved Pouliot out if needed and gone for the temporary fix. His ‘permanent’ fix moved out Hall. So we can ask the question does Hall being the cost for the ‘permanent’ fix, makes the ‘temporary fix’ the better path not chosen.

I agree and I think that depends on A) how good Larsson becomes & B) how quickly Klefbom and Nurse elevate. If the latter two become top pairing material sooner rather than later, this team (and fanbase) will really regret the rush to deal Hall. I still think Nurse becomes a beast and the team’s true number one. His range and ability to close a gap is undeniable. He just needs positional coaching and adjustment to the pace of the NHL.

knighttown

Woodguy:
knighttown,

We wonder why we don’t win but no one ever notices that time-on-ice issue. If someone is on the ice they can affect the game. If they are off the ice they can’t. Our leaders in time-on-ice per game last year:
1. Klefbom
2. Sekera
3. Oesterle
4. Nurse
5. Pardy
6. Schultz
7. Hall
8. Davidson
9. Nuge
10. McDavid

Its more fun when you look at total 5v5 TOI:

SEKERA, ANDREJ1365:06 – Good 2nd pair, passsable 1st
HALL, TAYLOR1247:27 – Elite winger – Can drive a line with a rookie Center vs toughs
NURSE, DARNELL1176:30 – Raw Rookie
DRAISAITL, LEON1038:18 – Almost Raw Rookie
FAYNE, MARK1008:43 – Ok 2nd pair Dman
EBERLE, JORDAN972:42 – 1st line winger
LETESTU, MARK885:35 – 4th line center
GRYBA, ERIC810:24 – Decent 3rd pairing Dman
NUGENT-HOPKINS, RYAN795:07 – Top 6 C had off year
DAVIDSON, BRANDON778:34 – Rookie
MAROON, PATRICK767:45 – 3rd line winger
KORPIKOSKI, LAURI764:06 – Below replacement level winger
SCHULTZ, JUSTIN 712:21 – 3rd pair Dman
HENDRICKS, MATT713:09 – 4th line winger – probably done
YAKUPOV, NAIL709:38 – Yak’s just this guy, you know?
POULIOT, BENOIT701:06 – Top 6 winger
MCDAVID, CONNOR624:55 – *swoon*
CRACKNELL, ADAM586:39 – AHL/NHL tweener vet
PAKARINEN, IIRO570:39 – Replacement level player
LANDER, ANTON550:48 – Replacement level player
KLEFBOM, OSCAR493:34 – Dreamy, but hurty
REINHART, GRIFFIN455:18 – Raw Rookie

It is fun to look at it that way and I often do but I didn’t just do per game for dramatic effect. The object of each game is to win each game and in many games the Adam Pardys of the world played more than Hall.

N64

knighttown: This, to me, is the THE key to the Oilers failure. Too many minutes given to below replacement level players or, as you point out, too few given to legit good players.

That’s where the singles were but we brought in the home run king to GM.

N64

jonrmcleod: I don’t know what would qualify someone as a “world class” GM, but he’s certainly not a Bozo like some

Let’s just say he has a very short term focus. Perfect for him that that is exactly what owner and fans wanted here. Every GM around the league would have looked at his arrival in Edmonton as one of those poker hands that has to pay when you bet with him. Well except for that “crazy” GM in Arizona who believes in Win-Win trades with desperate teams (but not crazy enough to move OEL of course)

knighttown

Woodguy,

Assume that when I say “no one ever notices…” that you are excluded. You don’t miss much my friend. That post is terrific. I had read it in the past but forgot about its existence or I would have referenced.

This, to me, is the THE key to the Oilers failure. Too many minutes given to below replacement level players or, as you point out, too few given to legit good players.

Loving the recent WoodMoney collaborations too.

jonrmcleod

Woodguy,

Usually things have to go just right (like a goalie going .940) for a team to win a Cup these days. I don’t know what would qualify someone as a “world class” GM, but he’s certainly not a Bozo like some seem to be implying.

Edit: And I’m not saying that you personally have done that.

N64

Bag of Pucks: One of your points is that no one criticizing the trade has identified a realistic alternative scenario to land the RHD. My point here is the same as the one made to stush last night when he suggested this has to occur to legitimize the criticism. I don’t agree. We’ll never be privy to all the options on the table so we’re left with judging him on his public actions. We don’t have to do his job better than him to criticize his work. The trade speaks for itself.

Actually he spoke for the trade in advance and he repeatedly referred to 2 approaches.. The ‘permanent’ fix or the ‘temporary fix’. He could have signed Lucic moved Pouliot out if needed and gone for the temporary fix. His ‘permanent’ fix moved out Hall. So we can ask the question does Hall being the cost for the ‘permanent’ fix, makes the ‘temporary fix’ the better path not chosen.

Woodguy

speeds: Has anyone successfully quantified whether 1min TOI for a D is as valuable as 1min TOI for a F?

I don’t think so.

I nominate you to do so Mike.

Can’t wait to see the results!

hehe

Woodguy

jonrmcleod:
Yesterday I read someone at this site (not LT) discounting Chiarelli’s Stanley Cup winning Bruins team because Tim Thomas had a lights out SV%.But let’s not forget that the Bruins got close to winning another Cup two years later…with a different goalie. It looked liked that series against Chicago was going to the seventh game before the Hawks scored those late goals.

I know it’s in fashion around here to bash Chiarelli, but let’s at least give the man some credit for what he did with the Bruins.

That was me.

Thomas put up .940 when they won the Cup.

Rask put up a .940 when they lost to CHI in the Cup final.

These are facts.

The poster was calling Chiarelli “World Class” and he put together those teams so he deserves credit, but hot goalies trump all in the playoffs and a superior team beat a .940 goalie in 2013

Bag of Pucks

Ducey: You get that timing matters, eh?

NJ isn’t going to sit around all summer and do nothing. If they don’t get Hall they move on and make another move. If they are going to trade Larsson they need to be able to fill the hole he leaves.

So yeah, there is an assumption Chia had to pull the trigger around the UFA signing period. Its not much of one.

Unless you are saying the Oilers just should not have made the trade and done nothing to fill the RHD problem until some later date, with some trade option which has not arisen, and maybe never will.

Further, its unclear what your point 2) is. I don’t blame Chia for not telling us about all his trade discussions. Maybe you should cheer for the Canucks. Their GM loves to chat.

One of your points is that no one criticizing the trade has identified a realistic alternative scenario to land the RHD. My point here is the same as the one made to stush last night when he suggested this has to occur to legitimize the criticism. I don’t agree. We’ll never be privy to all the options on the table so we’re left with judging him on his public actions. We don’t have to do his job better than him to criticize his work. The trade speaks for itself.

And, for the record, I see the timing of the trade as fully tied to the Lucic signing, and in fact, very much driving the trade. The alternative I’ve suggested is keeping Hall and waiting for a Boychuk/Leddy scenario when cap compliance forces some teams into ‘seller’ mode. If Lucic couldn’t be signed with Hall on the roster (i.e. Lucic was angling for the McDavid wing), then I don’t sign Lucic as it continues the pattern of making players pseudo guarantees without earning them. And yes, publicly they’re saying he’s not been guaranteed that slot, but that could easily be optics. Again, we’re not privy to what was discussed behind closed doors, but we do know Lucic mentioned being really excited about the chance to play with Connor.

And of course, the other option was Hall/Demers as opposed to Lucic/Larsson. Which one is better than the other? Depends on how good Larsson will be, and ultimately, that’s what Chia’s reputation rests on. He traded an elite offensive left winger for a defensive defenceman with questionable offensive upside. Tragic that the Oilers’ procurement strategy left the cupboards so bare of the latter, but the old saw is you don’t trade the ability to put the puck in the net for the ability to keep it out, and that may well hold true here. This is why Rob Zamuner’s don’t get picked for Team Canada anymore.

sliderule

You have to feel sorry for Chia.

He has Lowe the puppet master lurking and whispering in Katz’s ear.

He has Mact supposedly working for him and telling Stauffer that he wouldn’t have done that deal.No sir not if he was GM

I am getting close to dispair that all the first picks to infinity will ever be able to fix this team.

Bag of Pucks

StixMalone:
Bag of Pucks,

I really want proof of other GM’s crying foul….

I believe you have to talk to Ryan Rishaug on that one? Though I doubt he’ll reveal his sources.

G Money

Bag of Pucks,

Exactly right. “You have no right to analyze or criticize until you see the results” is an almost bizarrely naive statement, one that requires us to presume infallibility on the part of the new GM.

If there’s any fanbase in the NHL that should *NOT NOT NOT* presume infallibility on the part of a GM, it is the Oiler fanbase.

I especially like those who defend the move by saying “Chia’s got a ring as a GM, he’s smarter than you” … ignoring that the guy who traded for Hall and sent away Larsson also has a ring as a GM.

Bag of Pucks

Bruce McCurdy: In 1979-80 the Oilers had the GMC Line of course, but also a fine second line, the so-called Gang Green centred by the immortal Stan Weir with Dave Hunter and Dave Lumley on the wings. Weir had a career season with 33-33-66, while Lumley was a terrific rookie with 20-38-58. Hunter chipped in with 12-31-43. They were unexpectedly good — all were plus players — and a huge reason why the Oilers were able to squeeze into the playoffs.

Apologies for the oversight. I was too young and obviously too blinded by the brilliance of Gretz to remember the important contribution of ‘Gang Green.’ Will never forget Linseman’s OT dagger against us in Game 3 double OT though. The Flyers were dominant that year and despite it being a sweep, the young Oil gave them a real dogfight. That’s when I first realized we might have something really special here. ‘The Rat’ of course made up for the dagger in later years with his important contributions in the early Cup years.

Bag of Pucks

kinger_OIL:
Bag of Pucks,

– Hey you can argue with the rebalancing, and whether he should have paid up due to the huge bid/ask spread, but that was his call.

– And if the portfolio does better next year as a result, and the client is happy, you can’t go back and say: “yeah, I’m really happy with the portfolio, but you paid up a lot for that bond?”

– Because the manager is going to say: “you hired me to manage the portfolio, don’t judge me on one trade”

– If the portfolio “underperforms” next year, it won’t be soley as a result of the reach to the ask on one trade, its on the whole portfolio’s performance…

And that folks is what Chia does: he’s managing a porttfolio.

– And what everyone here is doing is :”wow I can’t believe he paid so much for one illiquid security, and sold another illiquid security for so little”.Because this is all off-market trading.And your opinions don’t matter, because you aren’t privy tothe price discovery.

– Look at the team at the end of the year and its performance: then you can decide if your happy or not.

fwiw, I kind of agree with you (i.e. ultimately we have to let the season play out and appraise Chia’s total body of work then), but if you’re saying we can’t second guess the individual actions along the way, it kind of renders a massive portion of what is discussed in communities like this as moot?

And, I do think the client has the right to second guess an individual trade within the portfolio if it concerned a premium asset and appears highly suspect on the surface as it calls into question the acumen of the manager and thus demands further inspection and discussion. No one gets a blank cheque for a year unless you’ve got a ton of goodwill in the bank and Chia hasn’t won the Cups here yet to have that in the bank with this fanbase imo. We’re still in the ‘prove it’ phase with this GM, or I am at least.

JD_Wry

Water Fire: Buying cap space with your currently best player might be a bad idea. Maybe start with Korpse and Hendricks etc

I didn’t say he bought cap space with his best player – that’s ridiculous.

I said it’s value in the deal that nobody is talking about.

Bruce McCurdy

Oil2Oilers: The best we can reasonably hope for is that he plays on a sheltered 3d line.

The best we can *unreasonably* hope for is he rips it up in camp like an 18-year-old Jaromir Jagr. Just saying.

John Chambers

Woodguy:
knighttown,

We wonder why we don’t win but no one ever notices that time-on-ice issue. If someone is on the ice they can affect the game. If they are off the ice they can’t. Our leaders in time-on-ice per game last year:
1. Klefbom
2. Sekera
3. Oesterle
4. Nurse
5. Pardy
6. Schultz
7. Hall
8. Davidson
9. Nuge
10. McDavid

Its more fun when you look at total 5v5 TOI:

SEKERA, ANDREJ1365:06 – Good 2nd pair, passsable 1st
HALL, TAYLOR1247:27 – Elite winger – Can drive a line with a rookie Center vs toughs
NURSE, DARNELL1176:30 – Raw Rookie
DRAISAITL, LEON1038:18 – Almost Raw Rookie
FAYNE, MARK1008:43 – Ok 2nd pair Dman
EBERLE, JORDAN972:42 – 1st line winger
LETESTU, MARK885:35 – 4th line center
GRYBA, ERIC810:24 – Decent 3rd pairing Dman
NUGENT-HOPKINS, RYAN795:07 – Top 6 C had off year
DAVIDSON, BRANDON778:34 – Rookie
MAROON, PATRICK767:45 – 3rd line winger
KORPIKOSKI, LAURI764:06 – Below replacement level winger
SCHULTZ, JUSTIN 712:21 – 3rd pair Dman
HENDRICKS, MATT713:09 – 4th line winger – probably done
YAKUPOV, NAIL709:38 – Yak’s just this guy, you know?
POULIOT, BENOIT701:06 – Top 6 winger
MCDAVID, CONNOR624:55 – *swoon*
CRACKNELL, ADAM586:39 – AHL/NHL tweener vet
PAKARINEN, IIRO570:39 – Replacement level player
LANDER, ANTON550:48 – Replacement level player
KLEFBOM, OSCAR493:34 – Dreamy, but hurty
REINHART, GRIFFIN455:18 – Raw Rookie

Nice list.

It’s seeing an entire season broken down by TOI like a visual picture – and it portends to any GM the importance of depth. I mean shit, if Adam Cracknell is playing 600 minutes / season, and 3rd pair Dmen are playing 700 minutes, it behooves a team to plan to play 9 Dmen and 16 forwards at least 400 minutes.

For this reason I like the idea of signing both Wisniewski and Gryba to fill out the spots for RD. If we can acquire Barrie for a reasonable cost, say Yak and Reinhart and a pick, then let’s go for it. But otherwise you can make amends by substituting 2nd pair Dmen with 3rd pair guys in the event of injury, and other major league replacement players to fill those spots as opposed to AHL players or rookies subjected to a Baptism by Fire.

speeds

Woodguy:
knighttown,

We wonder why we don’t win but no one ever notices that time-on-ice issue.

Au contraire mon frere

I noticed this very much and wrote on it back in April: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/04/playoff-teams-in-nhl-average-60-of-dman.html

Has anyone successfully quantified whether 1min TOI for a D is as valuable as 1min TOI for a F?

jonrmcleod

Yesterday I read someone at this site (not LT) discounting Chiarelli’s Stanley Cup winning Bruins team because Tim Thomas had a lights out SV%. But let’s not forget that the Bruins got close to winning another Cup two years later…with a different goalie. It looked liked that series against Chicago was going to the seventh game before the Hawks scored those late goals.

I know it’s in fashion around here to bash Chiarelli, but let’s at least give the man some credit for what he did with the Bruins.

GCW_69

russ99: First off, Chiarelli mentioned Draisaitl as a wing in the post-draft presser. That’s on the table.

Putting him on a wing with support is a lot better than putting him at center with lesser players he’ll have to carry, and who can’t be counted on to help in the D-zone. That’s a good way to limit his numbers and wear him down by the end of the season again.

And one of Letestu or Hendricks between Maroon and Kassian may not be sexy, but they can get the puck in and keep it there in McLellan’s systems.

Would prefer a better 2-way center, but those are the breaks, the Oilers can’t seem to get the extra player or two to fill glaring holes this time of year…

If the Oilers are serious about winning, Leon has to play centre or they need to acquire another centre. And it had to be someone they don’t mind losing in the expansion draft.

Bruce McCurdy

Bag of Pucks: Remember 79 when the Oil were truly a one line hockey club, but what a fantastic line it was? We could be looking at a season like that.

In 1979-80 the Oilers had the GMC Line of course, but also a fine second line, the so-called Gang Green centred by the immortal Stan Weir with Dave Hunter and Dave Lumley on the wings. Weir had a career season with 33-33-66, while Lumley was a terrific rookie with 20-38-58. Hunter chipped in with 12-31-43. They were unexpectedly good — all were plus players — and a huge reason why the Oilers were able to squeeze into the playoffs.