HOT FUN IN THE SUMMERTIME

by Lowetide

We are now in the dog days of summer, with news arriving by dog sled and stories of little note (David Musil signing imminent! Could be Oesterle-level!) being blown out of proportion. Senators and Rangers fans received a fabulous bit of news to discuss yesterday, perhaps Oilers fans will get something to discuss today or in the near future. What news would you most like to see this week? Oscar Klefbom gets a clean bill of health? We won’t know until training camp, but that is the kind of news we could all use this week.

PREDICTING THE ROOKIE CAMP ROSTER

bunz ferguson

Bunz photo by Rob Ferguson

ROOKIE CAMP 2010 FALL ROSTER

  • GOAL: Olivier Roy, Tyler Bunz, Bryan Pitton
  • DEFENSE: Jeff Petry, Johan Motin, Alex Plante, Jordan Bendfeld, Brandon Davidson, Jeremie Blain, Martin Marincin, Dominik Schlumpf, Nolan Toigo, Dallas Ehrhardt
  • CENTER: Chris VandeVelde, Tyler Pitlick, Ryan Martindale, Milan Kytnar, Chase Schaber
  • LEFT WING: Taylor Hall, Magnus Paajarvi, Phil Cornet, Kristians Pelss, Drew Czerwonka, Curtis Hamilton
  • RIGHT WING: Jordan Eberle, Teemu Hartikainen, Cameron Abney, Mike Thomas, James Livingston

PROJECTED 2016 ROOKIE CAMP ROSTER

  • GOAL: Nick Ellis, Eetu Laurikainen, Dylan Wells
  • DEFENSE: Darnell Nurse, Joey Laleggia, Ben Betker, William Lagesson, Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear, John Marino, Markus Niemelainen, Matthew Cairns, Filip Berglund, Vincent Desharnais
  • CENTER: Jujhar Khaira, Bogdan Yakimov, Kyle Platzer, Marco Roy, Josh Currie, Tyler Vesel, Aapeli Rasanen
  • LEFT WING: Drake Caggiula, Jere Sallinen, Evan Campbell, Tyler Benson, Graham McPhee
  • RIGHT WING: Jesse Puljujarvi, Anton Slepyshev, Greg Chase, Patrick Russell, Joey Benik

Seven men from the 2010 rookie roster made the NHL at a good level, including No. 1 overall Taylor Hall. The 2016 (projected) group includes two players who should become significant NHL players (Jesse Puljujarvi, Darnell Nurse). Are there seven players? Who is the Jeff Petry in this group?

DARNELL NURSE

There are a group of people I count as being vital to the way I approach this blog and think about team building/decision making. Some you know, some you don’t and some only get in touch when I post something so outrageous they feel a need to re-set my meds. I appreciate all of them.

To almost a man, my group of advisors believe the rookie season by Darnell Nurse was devastating to projecting him as an impactful NHL top 4D. I will tell you these are reasonable men, not prone to hyperbole or illogical bias (my blog displays far more of both).

POINTS-PER-GAME, NOTABLE ROOKIE BLUE

  1. Johnny Oduya 2006-07 .145
  2. Darnell Nurse 2015-16 .144
  3. Jeff Petry 2010-11 .143
  4. Martin Marincin 2013-14 .136
  5. Source: hockey-reference.com

NURSE SPLITS

Nurse was struggling in the first 11 games, but the possession number was in the range of what you might expect from a 20-year old rookie, and he had three points in the first 11 games. How much of Nurse’s final 57 games are about the player, and how much is about the position he was playing on the depth chart? I will have G Money and Woodguy on the Lowdown Thursday morning between 10 and 11, and this is one of the questions I have for these gentlemen. Can WoodMoney suss out complicated rookie seasons?

ALEX PETROVIC, OILER?

  • Beer League Heroes: I got word late last night from a source close to the team that the Florida Panthers have contacted the Edmonton Oilers regarding Nail Yakupov. The rumoured trade is being built around Yakupov, right-handed dman Alex Petrovic and a draft pick or picks could be coming back to the Oilers as well. The Oilers have also been talking to Brandon Pirri’s camp, I imagine he’d be Yak’s replacement if the Panthers deal goes through. Source

This is an interesting idea, as Edmonton would acquire a RHD and (apparently) a winger of value via free agency. Fascinating idea. I have no real opinion on the deal (no idea if this is an actual possibility), but let’s run the numbers for each player.

NAIL YAKUPOV

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.35
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.46
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 49.2
  • Qual Comp: 3line
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: 2.3
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 127 shots/6.3 percent
  • Boxcars: 60, 8-15-23
  • (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and BehindtheNet.ca)

ALEX PETROVIC

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.00
  • 5×4 points per 60: 0.00
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 48.5
  • Qual Comp: 3rd pairing
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -0.4
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 53 shots/3.8 percent
  • Boxcars: 66, 2-15-17
  • (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and BehindtheNet.ca)

BRANDON PIRRI

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.31
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.96
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 47.5
  • Qual Comp: 2line
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -0.9
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 128 shots/10.9 percent
  • Boxcars: 61, 14-15-29
  • (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and BehindtheNet.ca)

I have no source to suggest this deal is imminent or has even been discussed. That said, this is a deal (especially if picks are involved for Edmonton) that Peter Chiarelli should consider. I am not anti-Yak (despite many of you expressing that sentiment) but the idea of getting a young Petrovic has real appeal—and Pirri is a suitable replacement for Yakupov.

As for Florida, the return seems slight—although perhaps they are looking at that 6.3 shooting percentage and figuring the Russian can get 200 shots and 20 goals in a normal year. We are in the dog days of summer, the rumor may or may not be true. Interesting discussion, though.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260:

  • Jonathan Willis, Cult of Hockey. Oilers rumors, Sens-Rangers trade, holiday plans.
  • Jared Book, Bluebird Banter. Will the Jays make a move?
  • Russ Cohen, Sportsology. The Rangers and Senators made a very interesting deal, plus the blossoming blue for Philadelphia.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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[…] It seemed to cause a bit of a wave in the Oilogosphere because we’ve had pundits from Lowetide to Oil on Whyte to Bob Stauffer, Dustin Neilson, and Jason Gregor commenting on it on their radio […]

Lewko

jm363561:
http://www.nhlfreeagents.com/#!long-term-reserve/c14nd

Some unfinished business from a couple of days ago – can the Oilers get cap relief for Andrew Ference being on LTIR? The second half of the article seems to make it quite clear they can and the bonuses for our bright young things should not affect it. (Unlike most cap related articles it is almost intelligible!).

Also, as it seems to be a quiet news day, this exchange of views right at the end of Friday’s thread was really funny, (although I have found that my British sense of humour has not always travelled that well in Edmonton).

Bruce McCurdy: How could a hypothetical question involving a time machine be a serious question?

The Soup Fascist: How do we know you are not asking this question from the future Bruce?

I read this and it’s the standard stuff that’s out there and no where do I read anything specific about bonuses and LTIR.

For LTIR to work, as it states, Oilers need to be at the cap. They are well short of that now, 8m or so, and will be likely for most of the season because the bonuses don’t show up until after the season depending on if conditions were met. So basically given all the bonuses they will quite likely be well under the cap all year except for after the last day of the season when all the bonuses earned hit. In this scenario there is unfortunately no way to utilize LTIR wirh Ference unless they add so much salary they are basically capped out less the bonus cushion.

In the Oilers case they need to convert roughly 3m of bonus into firm cap hit as they have 8ish M of bonuses against the 5.4m cushion allowed. In this scenario they will have to add 5.5m plus in salary (~5.5 will cap them out with anything in the 5.4m cushion that hits triggering overages for next year) just to get to cap and then anything beyond that takes them over allowing them to use Ference LTIR. So it’s possible if they add like 6.5m plus in money but it seems unlikely this late in offseason and highly risky for overages next year.

As I’ve outlined before they can still add 3.5-6m but it requires careful bonus management primarily with the schedule Bs. It’s just the nature of when all the bonus dollars hit the cap that makes Ference LTIR not useful for the Oilers. I know it’s wordy but I hope this helps.

jm363561

G Money:
Funny how people are using Matt Pfeffer’s ‘Shea Weber is average’ quote to attack analytics.In fact, what Pfeffer said is quite highly specific:

Nashville scores/gives up basically the same amount of goals with Weber

BUT!

I wonder if Pfeffer’s opinion would have changed if he’d had some WoodMoney help.According to #WM, Weber plays 45% of his time against the toughest players in the league.(This is *very* high).

If Nashville’s goals differential is the same with Weber as without, I read this as a huge mark in Weber’s favour.

Is there a different way to interpret that?I mean, usually your goal differential when you play against the toughs is going to be worse.To keep it the same is pretty good.

Is not the ultimate stat wins / losses – does Nashville win more games with Weber in the squad than without? If a player plays pretty much a full season then you never know but in the 2014.15 season, when Taylor Hall missed one-third of the games, the Oilers points per game were no better when he played than when he did not.

The length of contract is a separate point but I agree with you.LTIR anyone?

Bruce McCurdy

Bag of Pucks: Always made me laugh how animated Tik was on the ice and on the bench, even though it was abundantly clear that neither his teammates nor the opposition could understand a damn word he was saying! One of the great ‘characters’ in Oilers lore.

Haha, I remember getting a seat down at ice level just beside the Zamboni hole one time. There was a change on the fly in the first period & Tikkanen came on as the puck was being dumped into the boards in front of us. Esa bursts over the blueline, eyes focussed on the puck and opponent. Maybe one eye on each, he had this kind of crazy look about him as he bore down. Voice beside me goes “Here comes Tikk!”, a couple of voices behind me just start to laugh. Business as usual, sounded like.

Chachi

Bruce McCurdy: It sure is easy to visualize this sequence. Perhaps because I saw it happen a few dozen to a few hundred times this past season.

It hasn’t reached “Take him wide Bucky” proportions, but it will get there eventually if not coached out of him a little.

Truth

gerberoo,

I think we are in agreement that Yakupov is best suited getting a fresh start elsewhere. My argument is that the Oilers have the following RW options on the team:

Eberle
Yakupov
Puljujarvi
Kassian
Pakarinen
Draisaitl?

My thoughts:
– You have accurately displayed that McDavid can turn a nobody into a somebody by simply playing alongside him. McDavid + whoever is on his line will be a good line.
– If Puljujarvi makes the team he should be somewhat sheltered, at least early.
– I believe Kassian and Pakarinen would be better used as bottom 6 F’s
– That leaves Eberle and Yakupov to play on the top 2 lines. (Draisaitl maybe, but that really hurts a balanced set of F lines)
– Yakupov wants out, but plays at an acceptable level with McDavid.
– I think the Oilers would be happy without Yakupov on the team, but believe he is worth more than a 3rd round pick.

In hindsight I was vague in what I meant as the perfect pump and dump candidate, but I mean the team is in a good position to play him where he has a chance to succeed and boost his trade value at little cost to the team (may be considered a benefit if Yak’s trade value returns). If and when Yak gets traded the Oilers have hopefully either acquired a #2 RW or Puljujarvi is ready to step in. Until then, and as you have shown, Yak is best suited with McDavid as opposed to on the wing of Nuge or Draisaitl. Yak drags them down but McDavid is unstoppable.

The counter argument is to say screw it and let Yak waste away on the 3rd or 4th line, in which case they might as well just send him packing to the KHL. I think Chiarelli would be gifting Yak to a team for the price of a 3rd round pick.

Bag of Pucks

Bruce McCurdy: Kurri once joked (or maybe not) that he couldn’t understand Tikkanese either.

Always made me laugh how animated Tik was on the ice and on the bench, even though it was abundantly clear that neither his teammates nor the opposition could understand a damn word he was saying! One of the great ‘characters’ in Oilers lore.

Pouzar

Jethro Tull: Nope.Not even close.

The comparative value of Hall to Larsson is closer than Severson to Eberle.

Three of the above players have done nothing but play against the best the league has to offer, often at saw-off.

It’d be like trading Nurse for an established perennial 20G/yr RW.Ain’t gonna happen.

Don’t even bother.

G Money

Bruce McCurdy,

Almost certainly the truth.

Ca$h-McMoney!,

Almost certainly the truth.

Ca$h-McMoney!

G Money,

I mentioned this in the tail end of the last thread, but my read on the situation is that he got fired less for the fact that he advocate a contrarian position, but rather because he appears to have the political acumen of your typical 21 year old.

Bruce McCurdy

Bag of Pucks: Some of my favourite memories as a Oiler fan are watching players like Gretz and Messier mentor Tikkanen and Graves respectively. The former was particularly interesting given the language barrier. Kurri should’ve gotten bonus money for working overtime as a translator back then.

Kurri once joked (or maybe not) that he couldn’t understand Tikkanese either.

Bruce McCurdy

rickithebear: Nurse had minimal success skating the puck up into OZ.
achieving almost zero HSCA penetration this year.
Getting out of position defensively.
Trying to skate back to cover but largely chasing the return play.
Exposing the HSCA zone to 2nd worst penetration rate in the league.

It sure is easy to visualize this sequence. Perhaps because I saw it happen a few dozen to a few hundred times this past season.

Bruce McCurdy

Truth: Yakupov is the perfect pump and dump candidate. Although he hasn’t played like a 1st overall pick, he still IS a 1st overall pick. Put him on McDavid’s wing for 30 games, get him a pile of pts, and hopefully the verbage changes to Yakupov finally finding his game after getting a competent (albeit superstar) center. Then trade him.

Of course you realize that the verbiage also changes to “WHAT ARE YOU THINKING, TRADING YAK **NOW** WHEN HE WAS FINALLY DOING WELL, CHIARELLI, YOU UTTER INCOMPETENT////1111”, don’t you?

Bag of Pucks

Lowetide: Haha. I write for me, enjoy this thoroughly. The passion was always there, but being a Dad and home more with young children (along with spending some nights alone with the kids while Mom went out, and vice versa) allowed me to find a voice at HF, and now here.

I release all of you for any two weeks you wish, but I will be here writing because it is my choice to do so. It has become my release.

I was sure you were going to say exactly that.

It’s the same thing for me with porn.

Don’t judge us for our passions!

leadfarmer

G Money,

He is an example of whats dangerous with analytics. To arrive at a conclusion that Weber is just an average NHLer like he did is just ridiculously wrong, and a wrong interpretation of the the data set. Its a good thing he was fired. People like him should not represent the analytics community especially to NHL teams. Sawing off the best of the best in the Western Conference for a two way defender who then adds 14 powerplay goals is not an average NHLer. His contract is on the other hand is why they should have not made the trade.

G Money

Funny how people are using Matt Pfeffer’s ‘Shea Weber is average’ quote to attack analytics. In fact, what Pfeffer said is quite highly specific:

pic.twitter.com/CEn2aPT49m— Matt Pfeffer (@MattPfefferHky) 18 July 2016

Nashville scores/gives up basically the same amount of goals with Weber as without. For all the talk of how tough he is, that’s a very average result.

BUT!

I wonder if Pfeffer’s opinion would have changed if he’d had some WoodMoney help. According to #WM, Weber plays 45% of his time against the toughest players in the league. (This is *very* high).

If Nashville’s goals differential is the same with Weber as without, I read this as a huge mark in Weber’s favour.

Is there a different way to interpret that? I mean, usually your goal differential when you play against the toughs is going to be worse. To keep it the same is pretty good.

So Pfeffer’s facts are incontrovertible, but his analysis may be flawed (I can’t say for sure since I don’t know what else he might have taken into account).

What should scare the shit out of Montreal is Weber’s age and his contract. I mean, Weber despite his decent (IMO) results, *has* been on the downslide over the last few years. That contract is going to hamper MTL for a decade.

But to me, it looks like Weber can still defend, and score, against the best.

It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he helps MTL this year, or at least breaks even vis a vis Subban.

It’s the next nine years that make it an incredibly risky trade, and those are what should have Montreal shitting their pants.

kinger_OIL

– Great post LT!

– LT says: “We are now in the dog days of summer, with news arriving by dog sled and stories of little note”

– Another chance to getting on my hobby horse: LT, you need some downtime. Not because your work isn’t still excellent, but I just don’t see how publishing 365 x 2 articles is good for you year in year out, not to mention all the other stuff. Get some guest hosts a la Johnny Carson…

– Take 2 weeks in the dog days of summmer: we will all be here when you get back!

gerberoo

Truth: Yak’s a 22 year old former first overall pick on a pretty good contract.He’s known to have many warts in his game, but is also widely known around the league to have been playing with an inferior center for practically his entire career.I fully agree with WOWY showing the true likes of Maroon, but I believe Yak would be a different situation. Do you think Oiler fans would be jumping at the chance to trade Yakupov for a 2nd round pick if he put up 60 pts next year?

You could probably use the 1st overall pick argument 2-3 years ago but as of now it’s irrelevant as there is a large data set on him over his career at the NHL level that holds far more clout than what he did in junior.

There were 26 games this year where Yak’s center was Letestu, the remaining games he was with either McDavid or Nugent Hopkins and 3 with Draisaitl. I absolutely agree that playing with Mark Letestu is a death sentence for offence but I don’t agree that Yak hasn’t been given the opportunity with quality centers every single year of his career and we now have a ton of data on how he performs with quality centers and he has failed with all except for McDavid who could turn near any winger into a PPG player it seems.

with McDavid – 205 Minutes – 3.8G/60 (2 of these supposed 13 goals were actually scored by Yak), 54.2% GF% 51.9% CF% – 3rd lien quality opponents
without McDavid – 504 minutes – 1.31 GF/60, 33.3% GF%, 47.9% CF% – 3rd line quality opponents.

I think the above speaks volumes to the quality of McDavid and says very little about Nails contributions.

Yaks most common C’s over the years:

Gagner – 596 minutes 2.42 GF/60 2.42 – 38.7% GF, 45.9% CF
Roy – 534 minutes 2.13 GF/60 – 40.4 GF%, 46.5% CF
Nuge – 432 Minutes 1.53 GF/60 – 26.8%!! GF, 40% CF
Draisaitl – 247 minutes 1.39 GF/60 – 24%!! GF, 50.5% CF
Letestu – 238 minutes 1.01 GF/60 – 28.6%!! GF, 46.3% CF
McDavid – 205 minutes 3.8 GF/60 – 54.2% GF, 51.9% GF

Overall, Yakupov is a massive liability to his teammates who all do markedly better across the board without him including in G/60 which is the one category as a pure offensive guy he should be helping in!

Jethro Tull

AsiaOil:
Agree – Severson would cost you Eberle – still would have done the deal at that price.

Nope. Not even close.

The comparative value of Hall to Larsson is closer than Severson to Eberle.

Three of the above players have done nothing but play against the best the league has to offer, often at saw-off.

It’d be like trading Nurse for an established perennial 20G/yr RW. Ain’t gonna happen.

AsiaOil

Truth,

Maroon Drai Yak is a unicorn line that intrigues me – playing behind:

Lucic CMD xxx
Pou RNH Eberle

Want me some Craig Smith or similar for 1RW – get LT his Pisani already. If Yak develops in that role then you can deal Ebs at the trade deadline or next years draft.

Bag of Pucks

I’ve always thought even the best teams should have at least one rookie F or D playing sheltered mins and being groomed with the big club. Look at what it did for Pitt this year.

Over and above the youthful enthusiasm they bring, it’s always a great reminder to the vets that the next wave is coming. Keeps them hungry and motivated.

Some of my favourite memories as a Oiler fan are watching players like Gretz and Messier mentor Tikkanen and Graves respectively. The former was particularly interesting given the language barrier. Kurri should’ve gotten bonus money for working overtime as a translator back then.

Truth

Ducey,
I think Oilers fans are the harshest towards Yakupov. If you look up some articles regarding Yak when the trade request was made there is a lot of talk about a kid with promise that just needs a change of scenery or that he hasn’t really had a chance playing on the lowly Oilers (Justin Schultz, Stanley Cup Champion, anyone?).

Friedman at the end of March:

“The speedy Russian, while not having lived up to being a No. 1 pick, could perhaps use a change of scenery to kickstart his career.

He’s only 22 years old, and did manage to put up 31 points (17 goals, 14 assists) in 48 games in his lockout-shortened rookie season three years ago – nearly a 30-goal pace in a full season.”

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/report-oilers-nail-yakupov-asked-trade/

Jonathan Willis:

“But this also feels familiar for Yakupov. From 2012-14, his most common centre was Sam Gagner, who has been cursed to wander the NHL and even the AHL since leaving Edmonton. In 2014-15, it was Derek Roy, who had previously cleared waivers and now plays for SC Bern.”

http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/cult-of-hockey-edmonton-oilers-nail-yakupov-mark-letestu-second-tier

I do agree Yak’s had his shot with Nuge and Draisaitl and has largely underwhelmed. I am certainly no Yakupov apologist. The way I see it is Lucic and McDavid will probably be playing together and whatever line McDavid plays on will drive the play. The Oilers need to have a second line that drives the play as well, and that is going to be a lot tougher now with Hall gone.

Yakupov with any center beyond McDavid will not work on a line to drive the play, but he has shown to have success with McDavid. I would much rather see Eberle with Nuge/Draisaitl and Yak with McDavid than to have Yakupov with Nuge/Drai and Eberle with McDavid.

gerberoo

John Chambers: This is overly optimistic.

Nurse is a lock for nothing more than a 3rd pair blueliner at this point. To say that we’re going to have two impact NHL defensemen out of Bear, Jones, the Finn, and the rest is blue skying it.

There are many good prospects in the system, for sure, but your analysis reminds me of the times when we would say Gagner is a lock, as are Schremp and Pouliot, while Peckham, Chorney, Plante, and Petry have about a 50% chance of making it.

Who said anything about the quality of the players? If you look back at the article referencing VandeVelde, Paajarvi etc., we are only looking at the potential for them to be NHLers regardless of quality or position on the depth chart. The above is the likelihood that they carve out a career of any sort as an NHLer

AsiaOil

Agree – Severson would cost you Eberle – still would have done the deal at that price.

npanciroli: I don’t think Yakupov gets you anywhere close to Severson after seeing how RHD are valued across the league.

Yakupov valued around a 3rd round pick right now.

Bag of Pucks

AsiaOil:
Don’t agree at all . The NHL is not a development league. Mistakes are punished severely (red lights flashing) and most rookies naturally become more and more conservative in that environment. That’s not the way to grow an under-developed offensive game that has potential. Nurse to AHL until trade deadline with heavy minutes and top unit PP time. That’s how you develop this player.

See my post above. I believe there is a way to develop top tier prospects in the NHL whilst minimizing the game costing mistakes. The Oilers have been doing this since Lowe and Coffey and I don’t see it changing under Chiarelli if last season is any indication.

There is some lessons that can only be learned at the NHL level. The AHL cannot replicate the speed of this game.

Further, where do you think Darnell gets the best caliber of coaching? In the NHL or in Bakersfield?

AsiaOil

Don’t agree at all . The NHL is not a development league. Mistakes are punished severely (red lights flashing) and most rookies naturally become more and more conservative in that environment. That’s not the way to grow an under-developed offensive game that has potential. Nurse to AHL until trade deadline with heavy minutes and top unit PP time. That’s how you develop this player.

Bag of Pucks: I don’t think he’ll learn how to adjust to the pace of the NHL in Bakerfield. A smart organization would give him sheltered mins with a vet to shepherd him through this adjustment. Pretty much what NSH did with Jones.

And fair point that Nurse needs to own it too. I’m a big believer in this player because of the things I watched him do in junior and really hoping the Oilers don’t screw this up. Probably leads to some bias.

Bag of Pucks

rickithebear: Will not look at the data.

Nurse tried to pull the Elite skating bull he did in Junior.

you can get away with that in Junior and some of the time in AHL. Cause the skill and thinking is much slower.

Nurse had minimal success skating the puck up into OZ.
achieving almost zero HSCA penetration this year.

Getting out of position defensively.
Trying to skate back to cover but largely chasing the return play.
Exposing the HSCA zone to 2nd worst penetration rate in the league.

Once he understands that Quick passing to the 300 players that outscore the best Even production Dmen.is a more efficient use of pocession.

Abandons the HSCA as minimal as possible.

He will start to move towards becoming the dominate cup caliber D we hope him to be.

Great reply. The fine line you walk with a player like Nurse is you don’t want to take away his physical gifts completely but you do have to conform him to the system to minimize the mistakes during development.

I think the prudent approach is you get him to think defensive positioning and quick outlet pass first and instill that in his game as the initial default (i.e. the safe play), then as he acclimates to the speed of the game, you’ll find he’s getting back way in advance of the forecheck and he can then turn and start using his gifts to impact the game positively. You don’t want to turn this big horse into Dillon Simpson. Darnell’s stride gives him the ability to skate it out and his size/reach gives him the ability to play keepaway very effectively, Honestly, once he starts anticipating the play and adds some pounds, he’s going to swat off smaller forecheckers. It will be awesome!

The analogy I use is this. I learned to drive racing a farm truck around the fields. My first car was a 76 Pontiac Firebird. 400 ci driving torque to two rear wheels via posi-trac. In other words, I was not equipped to play a safe game on the roads. But, once I learned to keep it between the ditches and got some experience, it was donuts and fishtails on demand! And that time spent stunting served me well later in life when I would expectedly fishtail on black ice or washboard with the family van. Yep kids, dad wasn’t always this lame!

Ducey

Truth:
gerberoo,

Also, didn’t MTL just fire their Analytics guy for (rightly) informing them Subban for Weber was a bad idea?

It was the way he did it.

Truth: Yak’s a 22 year old former first overall pick on a pretty good contract.He’s known to have many warts in his game, but is also widely known around the league to have been playing with an inferior center for practically his entire career.I fully agree with WOWY showing the true likes of Maroon, but I believe Yak would be a different situation. Do you think Oiler fans would be jumping at the chance to trade Yakupov for a 2nd round pick if he put up 60 pts next year?

He is believed to be playing with an inferior C (yeah, cause Nuge, and Leon suck) around here.

In the rest of the world its a different story. I would bet GM’s see a huge underachiever with one foot in the “bust” pool, who won’t/ can’t play defense, needs cherry minutes, that has a pushy agent, and can go back to the KHL. They likely remember the scouting reports during the draft (although they would not have spent much time looking at them because they did not have a shot at him). That’s likely all he has going for him.

He is still worth a shot to some GM, but at $2.5 M a season he is only worth a third round pick or some other stalled prospect.

JD_Wry

pells: He could possibly be the worst player in the league.

comment image

russ99

You just can’t look at solely the numbers for Nurse last year,
he was rushed to the bigs and had to pay sorties and minutes well beyond his capability.

While it’s true that players need to be pushed to reach their potential, throwing them feet first into the fire with little support, be it a veteran pairing mate or our offense-happy forwards skews things considerably,

The proof will be this year, and I hope he gets some AHL time to start to get his groove back.

John Chambers

gerberoo:
Regarding your question of if there are 7 in the rookie group that could be impactful NHLers I think that:

1) Nurse – Lock
2) Puljujarvi – Lock
3) Niemelainen – 50%
4) Jones – 50%
5) Bear – 50%
6) Rest of the D Combined – 50%
7) Khaira – 50%
8) Yakimov – 25%
9) Rasanen – 25%
10) Rest of C combined – 50%
11) Caggiula – 50%
12) Benson – 50%
13) Slepyshev – 25%
14) Rest of the W combined – 25%

Does this add up to 7? Probably not but there’s an outside chance and there could be some real gems in that list too.

This is overly optimistic.

Nurse is a lock for nothing more than a 3rd pair blueliner at this point. To say that we’re going to have two impact NHL defensemen out of Bear, Jones, the Finn, and the rest is blue skying it.

There are many good prospects in the system, for sure, but your analysis reminds me of the times when we would say Gagner is a lock, as are Schremp and Pouliot, while Peckham, Chorney, Plante, and Petry have about a 50% chance of making it.

NF Oiler

We have to remember nurse was only 20 last year..just wait until his body grows into a man..he has the skating, skill set and compete level you want in a top four D..with his skating stride he should be able to play 20-25 minutes a night easy…I am very confident in him becoming a top for d in the future

The news I want to see is an announcement of Connor being named captain. although only 19 he seems the type that would be able to handle that leadership responsibility..put the A on Lucic to help him out too.. The only downside to this great news would be that I would have to take my 97 jersey somewhere to get a C sown on

LoDog

Truth:
Yakupov is the perfect pump and dump candidate.Although he hasn’t played like a 1st overall pick, he still IS a 1st overall pick.Put him on McDavid’s wing for 30 games, get him a pile of pts, and hopefully the verbage changes to Yakupov finally finding his game after getting a competent (albeit superstar) center.Then trade him.

I’d like to see the offers TB received for Drouin 4 months ago vs what they would be now if he still wanted out.

This whole pump up yak bit is crazy. On one hand people want to see a big improvement this year and on the other they want to hamper the team by giving McDavid a less then ideal winger for 30 or games just to pump up his value, which it won’t. How about go with the best lines and try to win.

Truth

gerberoo,

Also, didn’t MTL just fire their Analytics guy for (rightly) informing them Subban for Weber was a bad idea?

Ryan

Maybe Chiarelli hangs out here from time to time lol.

https://lowetide.ca/2016/07/09/the-shocking-blue/#comment-549832

Truth

gerberoo: You could say the same thing about any player but any GM that’s going to trade for an asset is aware of how to look up a WOWY table and see why the player was performing better. If the idea of a pump and dump were that easy Chiarelli would be flipping his now PPG 6 foot 5 powerhouse player Maroon for Adam Larsson instead of Taylor Hall. I’m afraid the pump and dump is a fantasy and I would much rather see McDavid be put in a place to succeed with competent linemates than having to singelhandedly drag along Nail Yakupov for 40 games.

Yak’s a 22 year old former first overall pick on a pretty good contract. He’s known to have many warts in his game, but is also widely known around the league to have been playing with an inferior center for practically his entire career. I fully agree with WOWY showing the true likes of Maroon, but I believe Yak would be a different situation. Do you think Oiler fans would be jumping at the chance to trade Yakupov for a 2nd round pick if he put up 60 pts next year?

rickithebear

gerberoo: You could say the same thing about any player but any GM that’s going to trade for an asset is aware of how to look up a WOWY table and see why the player was performing better. If the idea of a pump and dump were that easy Chiarelli would be flipping his now PPG 6 foot 5 powerhouse player Maroon for Adam Larsson instead of Taylor Hall. I’m afraid the pump and dump is a fantasy and I would much rather see McDavid be put in a place to succeed with competent linemates than having to singelhandedly drag along Nail Yakupov for 40 games.

Add this to the hockey Bible!

rickithebear

Bag of Pucks:
Ricki, by your metrics, how does Nurse compare to Bouwmeester at the same age?

I always thought Bouwmeester was an excellent comp for Nurse given his skating/range.

They’re both lanky guys that can really wheel, but offensively they’re more likely to make hay passing than shooting.

Parayko on the other hand is more Pronger’s size: 6’6″ 226lbs

Will not look at the data.

Nurse tried to pull the Elite skating bull he did in Junior.

you can get away with that in Junior and some of the time in AHL. Cause the skill and thinking is much slower.

Nurse had minimal success skating the puck up into OZ.
achieving almost zero HSCA penetration this year.

Getting out of position defensively.
Trying to skate back to cover but largely chasing the return play.
Exposing the HSCA zone to 2nd worst penetration rate in the league.

Once he understands that Quick passing to the 300 players that outscore the best Even production Dmen.is a more efficient use of pocession.

Abandons the HSCA as minimal as possible.

He will start to move towards becoming the dominate cup caliber D we hope him to be.

Ca$h-McMoney!

Klima’s_Bucket:
The Panthers have one of the deepest D cores in the league.

Yandle – Ekblad
Matheson – Demers
Kindl – Pysyk
McCoshen – Petrovic– Kampfer

They have solid forward depth too.

Huberdeau – Barkov – Jagr
Jokinen – Trocheck – Smith
Crouse – McCann– Bjugstad
McKenzie – Marchessault – Sceviour
Thornton – McKegg – Shaw

I could see them interested in Yak as an eventual right side replacement for Jagr.
Jagr can’t play forever. Can he?Can he???

Oil MGT: Yak, we’re trading you to Florida. We’ve really appreciated the time you’ve put in with us, but I think we can both agree it’s not working. We think you can have some success in Florida, where there will be less pressure.

Yak: Thanks, I appreciate that.

Oil MGT: Just got off the phone with the Panthers. They are looking forward to your arrival. You are their long term plan for replacing Jaromir Jagr.

Yak: Son of a b……..

commonfan29

npanciroli,

That’s why they signed Reimer, no?

gerberoo

Truth:
Yakupov is the perfect pump and dump candidate.Although he hasn’t played like a 1st overall pick, he still IS a 1st overall pick.Put him on McDavid’s wing for 30 games, get him a pile of pts, and hopefully the verbage changes to Yakupov finally finding his game after getting a competent (albeit superstar) center.Then trade him.

I’d like to see the offers TB received for Drouin 4 months ago vs what they would be now if he still wanted out.

You could say the same thing about any player but any GM that’s going to trade for an asset is aware of how to look up a WOWY table and see why the player was performing better. If the idea of a pump and dump were that easy Chiarelli would be flipping his now PPG 6 foot 5 powerhouse player Maroon for Adam Larsson instead of Taylor Hall. I’m afraid the pump and dump is a fantasy and I would much rather see McDavid be put in a place to succeed with competent linemates than having to singelhandedly drag along Nail Yakupov for 40 games.

Truth

Yakupov is the perfect pump and dump candidate. Although he hasn’t played like a 1st overall pick, he still IS a 1st overall pick. Put him on McDavid’s wing for 30 games, get him a pile of pts, and hopefully the verbage changes to Yakupov finally finding his game after getting a competent (albeit superstar) center. Then trade him.

I’d like to see the offers TB received for Drouin 4 months ago vs what they would be now if he still wanted out.

gerberoo

Rube Foster:
Geez, are we forgetting that prior to the linesman taking Yak out, our boy Nail was producing at virtually the same rate that Eberle did with McDavid?

I believe that Nail has proven he can be productive with Connor. If we’re going to move him lets at least give him 30 to 40 games with McDavid to pump up his value.

I can see the appeal of Petrovic as a RHD, but a year and half ago we turned Jeff Petry into a 2nd & 5th Round draft picks. Might not a offering or two from of the Leftorium and a 2nd round pick get us a Petrovic like RHD?Do the Oilers feel compelled to singlehandly inflate the market for RHD?

Asset Management. What a concept.

I don’t agree with this in any way:

Eberle with McDavid – 364 Minutes TOI – 53.5 GF% – 52.4% CF% – 3.79 GF/60
Yak with Mcdavid – 205 Minutes TOI – 54.2% GF% – 51.9% CF% – 3.8 GF/60

By just glancing at these stats it may look like Yak did just as well with McDavid as Eberle did but this is not the whole narrative.

10 + 97 had only 17.6% of defensive zone starts and faced 3rd line quality competition.
14+ 97 had 33.8% defensive zone starts and faced 1st line quality competition.

Let’s also not forget that Yakupov scored a total of 2 goals in his time with McDavid and Eberle potted 8 at even strength.

npanciroli

GCW_69:
The real shame of the Larsson trade for me was it eliminated any possibility of Severson being traded, and I think there were enough signals to suggest he could have been had for the right offer.I think Yakupov would have been at the heart of that offer.

The Oilers would have been much better off losing the Hall trade on another defender (Harmonic, Shattenkirk) and having Severson in the 2RD spot then they will be with Larsson and a Petrovic level RHD.

Sigh. Missed opportunity.

I don’t think Yakupov gets you anywhere close to Severson after seeing how RHD are valued across the league.

Yakupov valued around a 3rd round pick right now.

JimmyV1965

Bag of Pucks:
Ricki, by your metrics, how does Nurse compare to Bouwmeester at the same age?

I always thought Bouwmeester was an excellent comp for Nurse given his skating/range.

They’re both lanky guys that can really wheel, but offensively they’re more likely to make hay passing than shooting.

Parayko on the other hand is more Pronger’s size: 6’6″ 226lbs

Would absolutely be thrilled if Nurse has this kind of career. That’s a homerun in my books. Of course, he will be much much nastier then Bouw.

Truth

It’s a shame the organization wasn’t competent enough to find enough NHL D to allow Nurse one season in the AHL He beat out the competition to win an NHL job, and he was misplaced doing so. Without this incompetence I bet we would all be talking about how exciting it’s going to be to watch Nurse try to break into the NHL now that he may be ready.He has all the tools with the exception of NHL hockey sense, which IMO, is best “developed” when the player is at full confidence and not getting his lunch fed to him by NHL superstars.

I still have hope Nurse will become a top 4 NHL D. Isn’t it LT who says D develop by sundial?

GCW_69

The real shame of the Larsson trade for me was it eliminated any possibility of Severson being traded, and I think there were enough signals to suggest he could have been had for the right offer. I think Yakupov would have been at the heart of that offer.

The Oilers would have been much better off losing the Hall trade on another defender (Harmonic, Shattenkirk) and having Severson in the 2RD spot then they will be with Larsson and a Petrovic level RHD.

Sigh. Missed opportunity.

Drew

pells:
Really like the trade and sign idea. Watched Petrovic with the Rebels he was a really good Junior, fast a does have good offensive abilities. Watched him a few games last year and it looks like he is really starting to figure out the NHL. As we know it takes most dmen 4-5 years to develop. As for Yak, any decent NHL winger would work. It is addition by subtraction when it comes to Yak. He hurts the team when he is on the ice. He could possibly be the worst player in the league. If he wasn’t a first overall pick he would not have seen NHL ice again after his second year. We need to cut our losses. Nurse needs to be in the minors getting first line duties. Running a powerplay. His game management and puck handling abilities need to develop and he won’t get that chance in Edmonton.

hmmmmmm…

the force is strong here.

perhaps i should add a little more. you might want to look up the information from the WoodMoney work and others that are on the site. Yak is a flawed player but he is not in the “dregs” of the league.

If you have something to build I would love to see it.

npanciroli

Florida has one of the most interesting expansion protection lists.

I honestly could see them going 7/3 since they have so much defensive depth they could lose a D no problem and keep their young forward group intact instead of losing a Forward.

Forwards:
Barkov
Trocheck
Bjugstad
Smith
Huberdeau
Jokinen

Defence:
Yandle (NMC)
Ekblad
Demers
Pysyk
Petrovic

These are the players they probably want to protect.

Do they protect only 3 D and lose Pysyk or Petrovic but keep all forwards or protect 4 D and lose a great young forward?