RE 16-17 JORDAN EBERLE: HELPLESS

by Lowetide

They arrived with such promise, Taylor and Jordan. For as long as I live, the two kids (who grew to men here, in our town) will be linked—no matter the trades. The early days of promise gave way to frustration and losing and in the end, one man left and another man stayed. We all have our opinions on which man was blessed. (Helpless)

JORDAN EBERLE 14-15

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.97 (4th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 5.85 (1st among regular forwards)
  • Corsi for % 5×5: 50.4
  • Qual Comp: toughest among regular forwards (1st line opp)
  • Qual Team: 2nd best teammates among regular forwards (top linemates)
  • Corsi Rel: 7.7
  • Zone Start: 63.7
  • Zone Finish: 56.2
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 183/13.1%
  • Boxcars: 81, 24-39-63

JORDAN EBERLE 15-16

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.85 (5th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 4.17 (4th among regular forwards)
  • Corsi for % 5×5: 50.9
  • Qual Comp: 3rd toughest among regular forwards (1st line opp)
  • Qual Team: 3rd best teammates among regular forwards (top linemates)
  • Corsi Rel: 7.4
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 173/14.5
  • Boxcars: 69, 25-22-47

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER

VOLLMAN RW

RE 16-17: 75GP, 27-34-61 (0.813)

  1. You thought Eberle would be the man to be traded, didn’t you? Yes. Wrote about it in the spring RE, assuming that a winger made more sense than a center.
  2. Why did Eberle make it through the summer? A few reasons. The Oilers had Lucic as an option on LW, meaning Hall was perhaps more vulnerable.
  3. Anything else? Eberle is a righty shooter, Edmonton has no other—or had none until draft night.
  4. I think it is because Eberle works well with McDavid. Sure, that makes sense. The Duo was solid, with Eberle scoring 8 even-strength goals, posting a 2.64/60 points-per-60 total. McDavid-Eberle had the Corsi edge 5×5 for (52.2) with both men lesser without.
  5. So you agree: Eberle with McDavid was the reason Hall was dealt? No, there is one other reason that makes sense.
  6. What is the other reason? Value. Edmonton likely received stronger offers for Hall than Eberle—in fact, I would bet money on it.
  7. What does Eberle do well? Score goals. He scores 28 goals per 82 games, that is a dandy total in the modern era. A lot of times guys like Eberle are called complementary players, but he has shown an ability to score when not on a feature line. Now, it is a damned foolish thing to do, but Eberle could score on a line that did not boast the team’s top center.
  8. Anything else? Most of his value is on offense, we all love his quick hands in close it is easy to overlook outstanding passing ability. He can really make plays.
  9. What does he not do well? Most of the good offensive Oilers are not what you might call two-way types. Now, that can be overstated—if you are pushing the river then deficiencies without the puck are less harmful—but 14 doesn’t interrupt sorties like Benoit Pouliot (as an example).
  10. Your boxcars seem reasonable, maybe even a little low. I think Eberle and McDavid play most of the season together, but I am not certain it will turn out that way. I have hedged the bet, but only a little.
  11. You don’t think this team is going to score a lot. I believe the power play will improve this coming year, but the 5×5 total (the club scored 133 last season, No. 21 overall) will not spike. Edmonton wasn’t a dynamic even-strength team a year ago, we will see if they can reach that (or eclipse) in the coming season.
  12. Who are the other candidates for 97’s RW? McDavid (5×5) played with RWs last season: Eberle (364 minutes), Nail Yakupov (205), Zack Kassian (38) and Iiro Pakarinen (24).
  13. So, Eberle and Yakupov? Puljujarvi is also in the mix, but we can discuss that in due time.
  14. How much will Eberle miss Hall? Well, he is (apparently) moving from the penthouse to the skyview, so miss may be a misrepresentation. That said, Eberle in six seasons with Hall delivered sublime offense 5×5: 29-25-54 (2.10 per 60) and 50.3 Corsi for 5×5 percentage.
  15. Who are his comparables. Six years in, the list of comps includes Ales Hemsky, Mike Richards, Bobby Ryan, Matt Duchene. They are all good hockey players.
  16. Do you worry about injury? Not really. The one he sustained last year was bad luck, or looked as much. He averages 77 games a year (if you adjust for the shortened season).
  17. Will he score 400 goals in his career? Eberle will if he keeps falling ass over tea kettle into greatness—although in fairness, he can cash and that is important.
  18. Will he score 400 goals in his career? At 25, Eberle has 145. By age 30, he should be around 240-250. That puts him on track for 400 NHL goals during his career.
  19. Where would that put him in terms of all Oilers? If he scored 400 goals in the same uniform, Eberle would pass all but 99, Kurri and Anderson. Many miles to go.
  20. What’s the best thing you could tell a stranger about Eberle. He’s a consistent offensive player and can be productive on a line that doesn’t house his team’s best player (proved that in 2014-15).
  21. Why doesn’t he get more attention? Oilers lose a lot, that craters all values, it just does. Plus, he’s played a lot of his career with No. 1 overall picks, those guys get a lot of attention.
  22. Who did he play well with last season? He was over 50 percent with pretty much everyone, and here are his 5×5/60s: McDavid 2.64; Nuge 2.23; Maroon 2.07; Pouliot 2.04. Silly good. Only played with Hall-Leon in a short window when he arrived back (iirc) and they were not good together, but would be if all the pistons are firing.
  23. Where can he help the team most? I think it might be on a line with Nuge and Pouliot, but suspect Todd McLellan will place him with McDavid.
  24. Mistake? No sin in placing your best player with the players who can help him succeed, and Eberle can in fact help with the offense.
  25. Why this song? There is a melancholy to it, that is the theme of this summer’s RE. A sense of sadness, even with the acknowledgement that things change, followed by renewal. Plus, being a prairie boy, he will be familiar with staring at the sky and wondering, as NY does in the song. This was a tough six years for Eberle, I hope he finds a better day with Edmonton.

 

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Bag of Pucks

AsiaOil:
Yes Bruce is right – Bruce is always right – Austin’s are golden children never to be scolded.Sheesh.

The interesting thing about these golden children is their weaknesses aren’t fully revealed until they’re traded to another organization and they promptly slide down the depth chart.

Gilbert. Hemsky. Omark. Gagner. All previous golden children that were ‘misunderstood’ by the mouth breathers. All since revealed to be stunningly mediocre hockey players after moving on.

Jordan Eberle is the current best RW on a very bad hockey team. Endorsement or condemnation? Possibly a bit of both…

AsiaOil

Yes Bruce is right – Bruce is always right – Austin’s are golden children never to be scolded.Sheesh.

Pouzar

Bruce McCurdy: I blame Eberle for not being traded. What an ingrate.

Trying to remember what numbers you cited that were so much more compelling than the possession, scoring chance, and goal differential numbers I posted above — somehow those great numbers cover up the fact that Eberle secretly sucks and that AsiaOil has been right about everything all along? Get real.

This may be the single most self-serving comment I’ve ever read on this blog.

Finally someone else calling out this troll. Thank you.

Centre of attention

Bruce McCurdy,

You nailed it. Couldn’t have said it better myself.

Bruce McCurdy

AsiaOil:
So pointing out obvious weaknesses in a player’s game and backing it up with numbers is “attacking”? My my we do need to protect the precious Yeah I’m pissed that the asset we needed to trade was Hall instead of Eberle to fix the defense. In case you didn’t notice the cap hit is EXACTLY the same – value clearly isn’t.

I blame Eberle for not being traded. What an ingrate.

Trying to remember what numbers you cited that were so much more compelling than the possession, scoring chance, and goal differential numbers I posted above — somehow those great numbers cover up the fact that Eberle secretly sucks and that AsiaOil has been right about everything all along? Get real.

AsiaOil: I take Bruce’s comments with a grain of salt though – he’s still pissed over our debate about RNH vs Larsson prior to their draft. His position looked good for a while (RNH as elite center) but we finally got Larsson and it cost a guy worth more than RNH (whose ES scoring issues did emerge as I argued many years ago).

This may be the single most self-serving comment I’ve ever read on this blog.

theWaxCollector

This is a little off-topic, but can someone remind me what happened to Lander this year development-wise?

I hope he was playing some AHL games at least but I have a feeling he was press box most nights. Wish he could get stuff together and play 3rd line C this year

New Improved Darkness

Bruce McCurdy:
I know sometimes we are harshest on the players we expect the most out of; if they can be that good sometimes, why can’t they be that good all the time?

Back in 2005, Emily Oster wrote a PhD dissertation titled Hepatitis B and the Case of the Missing Women.

It should have been titled—in my far from humble opinion—Exclusion of Hepatitis as Determinant Factor in Population Sex-Ratios Considered Smug on Available Data.

So, maybe a year after I’d done this, some guys came along in Taiwan and actually had much better data, which actually had whether the mother, for a very large sample of women, like basically every birth in Taiwan for some period, they had whether the mother had hepatitis and what the gender of her kid was. And they showed there was basically no relationship.

Now, if she had chosen her original title properly, all she needs do to is fire off a short update titled, Exclusion of Hepatitis as Determinant Factor in Population Sex-Ratios Considered SmugSmart on Newly Available Data.

But she had chosen her original title with an eye to the academic conventions of self-advancement, rather than honesty to data and thesis, so Big Problem in Little China.

———

Emily: So then [] I thought, is there any way to salvage this? And the thing I was asking was whether maybe it’s the parental, maybe it’s the fathers, the fact that the father has hepatitis is the thing that’s actually driving this.

Russ: That was clever.

Emily: Yeah, well, one always wants to rescue one’s work. So I actually went to China and ran, in conjunction with a bunch of doctors—they had a really big survey, in which we could see the Hepatitis B of both the mother and the father and look at their kids. And it turned out, at some point the data came in, and it turned out actually there was no link between either maternal or paternal hepatitis and the gender of the kid. So I wrote up a paper which was titled like Hepatitis B does not explain sex ratios in China, and basically said this earlier argument was based on effectively circumstantial evidence. We have better evidence now and it doesn’t seem to be what’s going on.

Russ: This puts you in a very small class of academics who have the privilege of conceding that you were wrong. And even better, publishing a paper showing it. That stuns me. Really—I’m not being facetious at all—how rare it is that when a paper comes out that counters what the original paper found, someone then concedes that they were actually wrong.

Emily: Yeah. I think, relative to some of these other very long-standing disputes back and forth in economics about this stuff, there was a sense here in which it wasn’t really that what I had done earlier was wrong. The conclusions were wrong but the analysis wasn’t wrong. It was that this new data came out, and I think it made it, at least psychologically, a little bit easier to—although not that it was the biggest period of my professional life.

Russ: It wasn’t fun.

Emily: But it was like a little bit easier to come back and say, new data comes out and that’s how science works. And I think always in those situations you would like to be the bigger person, but it’s very hard.

Russ: Well, that’s another interesting experience you got to have. These things happen constantly in economics—a paper comes out that makes a dramatic splash. People challenge it. And usually the people who get challenged don’t concede an inch. In fact, they just say: That’s true but I’ll re-run the regression; I’ll include this now; and look, it still holds up. Very hard.

Emily: It’s hard. I think we’re all kind of—we all want—you get invested. Even if you don’t ex ante care about what the answer was, once you’ve written it, you are invested. And it feels really bad to mess up. And I think that was definitely something that I learned.

Source: Oster on Pregnancy, Causation, and Expecting Better. My version cribbed from online transcript.

———

Maybe you’re wondering what this has to do with Bruce’s original comment. (Or maybe you’re conditioned to suspend final assembly until the third or fourth hash mark.)

———
———

Now that we’re all properly regrouped, the connection was Emily’s sentence “And it feels really bad to mess up.” On the first pass through this discussion, when she said that, I was about ready to put my foot through the iPod player.

Here there are, about 80% of the way to saying what really needs to be said—the endless hours I spend listening to this kind of shit in the faint hope that once in a while a blinding beacon of clue will illuminate the surrounding atmospheric haze—and then they muff it.

Getting to 80% of the way there is about 40% closer than can normally achieve by listening to smart people talk about things they’re really good at. There are notable exceptions, of course. Feynman maybe dropped as low as 80% during his very worst day of the entire Columbia investigation—which was pretty damn discouraging amid the bureaucratic blanket full court press.

You might say that Feynman got away with this because he didn’t care what other people thought of him. You’d be wrong.

Feynman gave the biggest shit ever about abrading woolly thinking. His own first of all—everyone else’s as collateral damage.

They got me to the edge of my seat, and then stepped out of bounds at midfield with nothing ahead but open field, out of concern for some phantom reputational threat.

1954 Grey Cup Jackie Parker

Parker at midfield is not exactly being pursued by Jonah Lomu. (Sad update: “Lomu died on 18 November 2015 [age 40] after suffering a heart attack caused by his kidney disease. Lomu was survived by his wife and sons aged 5 and 6.” Jonah Lomu dies: Mike Catt admits he can still hear footsteps. When Lomu brings you to the edge of your seat, the edge of your seat is never the same again. Eberle is not Lomu.)

Invictus was the kind of movie which flirted with taking me into the caring-enough-to-be-bitterly-disappointed zone, but by my age, the passions of youth are fully cocooned in scar tissue, so I settled into the comfortably numb state of merely fantasizing about having some pink emotional skin actually in the game.

———

So last night I read half of Give and Take by Adam Grant, overachiever extraordinaire. It’s got one of those back cover flaps which you need to view through projection, like Galileo observing the sun.

“Adam Grant is the youngest tenured professor and single highest-rated teacher at the Wharton School … [copious accolades piled higher and deeper] … and is a former record-setting advertising director, junior Olympic springboard diver, and professional magician.”

I’m wading through a troubling chapter titled “Finding a Diamond in the Rough”. The back half of this chapter flies under the pirate flag Throwing Good Money After Bad Talent. If you care about the loopy legacy of Stu Inman the least iota, you will be engrossed by this account, if not exactly riveted. Ever heard of LaRue Martin (taken before McAdoo and Dr. J.) or Sam Bowie (taken before Jordan, Barkley, and Stockton)? I hadn’t heard of either whiff, but it all seemed so darn … plausible. Like I had been well and truly prepared.

Before the chapter turns to b-ball, I’m rudely awakened—quickened would be more accurate—by this paragraph:

In the 1960s, a pioneering psychologist named Raymond Cattell developed an investment theory of intelligence. He proposed that interest is what drive people to invest their time and energy in developing particular skills and bases of knowledge. Today, we have compelling evidence that interest precedes the development of talent. It turns out that motivation is the reason that people develop talent in the first place.

This doesn’t get said nearly often enough, so I perk up.

What does the magician extraordinaire now pull out of his hat? Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell. The Talent Code by Daniel Coyle. The Rare Find by George Anders. Angela Duckworth, the “grit” lady.

Is “Grit” Really the Key to Success?

A new book says you need passion and perseverance to achieve your goals in work and life. Is this a bold new idea or an old one dressed up to be the latest self-help sensation?

Oh daring thesis. I’m positively on the edge of my chair to see how this article ends. (It’s actually a very good review and assessment.) Sorry Dan and George, I think I’ll pass on checking out Volumes II and III of “The Cheese Formula”.

There it is. I fell for a paragraph ending with the sentence: It turns out that motivation is the reason that people develop talent in the first place. I fell into giving a shit.

Second missed clue: the book is titled Giving and Taking.

———

One of the micro-theses of Grant’s book is that the “taker” personality type has trouble letting go of their mistakes.

[Kwame] Brown’s disappointing results appeared to threaten Jordan’s ego. When Jordan came out of retirement to play for the Wizards alongside Brown, he routinely berated and belittled Brown, who poor performance was hurting the team—and making Jordan’s draft choice look foolish.

The twist in the Stu Inman story (every chapter of this book involves setting up a twist through the technique of a highly filtered initial presentation) is that he actually does a great job of benching his two wayward wonderkind, instead of gifting them Jultz minutes.

Perhaps. I don’t at this point trust the author enough to conclude.

———

You know where this book really lives when you get to the chapter on overachiever burnout (chapter title: The Art of Motivation Maintenance).

DFW was mentioned in a recent thread, commending his tennis coverage, so I went back and reread his Federer article.

Then his tennis work came up again in another connection, so I read (for the first time) his article—under the new and improved and so much more adequate and proper title—Tennis Player Michael Joyce’s Professional Artistry as a Paradigm of Certain Stuff about Choice, Freedom, Discipline, Joy, Grotesquerie, and Human Completeness

Personally, I liked his Federer article better. In this article, he fails the Feynman test.

No silicon-based RAM yet existent could compute the expansion of variables for even a single exchange; smoke would come out of the mainframe.

Beyond video games: New artificial intelligence beats tactical experts in combat simulation (June 2016)

It’s perhaps unfortunately for DFW that I had encountered Deep Rebuttal in the preceding weeks, some twenty years later. But Feynman doesn’t fail the Feynman test due to the passage of a mere twenty years. Advantage, Feynman.

Even more hilarious: this new air combat algorithm runs just fine on a Raspberry Pi. I nicknamed this new AI “Scyborg”. Showing even less imagination that Gladwell’s kissing cousins, they named the dumb thing ALPHA.

Circling back to DFW again:

Whether or not he ends up in the top ten and a name anybody will know, Michael Joyce will remain a paradox. The restrictions on his life have been, in my opinion, grotesque; and in certain ways Joyce himself is a grotesque. But the radical compression of his attention and sense of himself have allowed him to become a transcendent practitioner of an art–something few of us get to be. They’ve allowed him to visit and test parts of his psychic reserves most of us do not even know for sure we have (courage, playing with violent nausea, not choking, et cetera).

Joyce is, in other words, a complete man, though in a grotesquely limited way. But he wants more. He wants to be the best, to have his name known, to hold professional trophies over his head as he patiently turns in all four directions for the media. He wants this and will pay to have it–to pursue it, let it define him–and will pay up with the regretless cheer of a man for whom issues of choice became irrelevant a long time ago. Already, for Joyce, at twenty-two, it’s too late for anything else; he’s invested too much, is in too deep. I think he’s both lucky and unlucky. He will say he is happy and mean it. Wish him well.

Lesson learned. You don’t become the youngest faculty member at Wharton by spicing a slick narrative with actual spice.

Grant doesn’t entirely shirk appropriate worry. Instead, he doubles down and subdivides givers into “selfless givers” and “otherish givers”.

In numerous studies, Carnegie Mellon psychologist Vicki Helgeson has found that when people give continually without concern for their own well-being, they’re at risk for poor mental and physical health. Yet when they give in a more otherish fashion, demonstrating substantial concern for themselves as well as others, they no longer experience health costs.”

True story. In Grant’s narrative, the cure for burnout is to find another big chunk of time (ideally once a week) to give even more.

At this point, it’s pretty obvious how Wharton is getting their money’s worth out of their youngest faculty member—and it’s certainly not from his scintillating prose or cutting insight.

———

As it happens, Bruce hit a nerve. You don’t say?

I have a few entries on this subject already stacked up in my personal Devil’s Dictionary.

The only problem is that I’ve yet to find exactly the right phrase, so these are all mildly gag-worthy (ranging from 1 to 10 on a 100 point scale, with the retching point calibrated to “otherish givers”).

Harsh criticism of expectations engaged

The strangely critical response where you want to give a fairly good movie a double F minus, because it was so close to scratching your real itch.

Disappointment by Milquetoast consummation

This is where you sense a movie or book or conversation is about to hit a point you’ve long waited to see confronted directly, and you’re leaning forward on your chair, and then it’s totally meh, and you’re deep into the harsh criticism zone.

Critical suspension of give-a-shit

I’m mainly thinking of movies that slide comfortably into popcorn status, without provoking any heartfelt animosity, where a better effort does not emerge unscathed.

For those keeping score, that’s the second time in this post I’ve turned a double negative.

Too close to right

I was contemplating how when Vincent Canby savages Paris, Texas he’s unreasonably critical because he loves his Sam Shepard neat. I see this effect also in myself where I don’t get toxic in my criticism until the subject has already passed some higher-than-average bar.

———

Someday I will properly ring that bell.

I can hardly wait.

AsiaOil

So pointing out obvious weaknesses in a player’s game and backing it up with numbers is “attacking”? My my we do need to protect the precious 🙂 Yeah I’m pissed that the asset we needed to trade was Hall instead of Eberle to fix the defense. In case you didn’t notice the cap hit is EXACTLY the same – value clearly isn’t.

I take Bruce’s comments with a grain of salt though – he’s still pissed over our debate about RNH vs Larsson prior to their draft. His position looked good for a while (RNH as elite center) but we finally got Larsson and it cost a guy worth more than RNH (whose ES scoring issues did emerge as I argued many years ago).

Centre of attention

Bruce McCurdy,

Yeah my bad on the age quote. Point still stands though. Those numbers you provided in that link should shoot a massive hole in the “Eberle is a drag on the team defensively” narrative.

Sorry for posting again after I said I wouldn’t 😛

Bruce McCurdy

Centre of attention: What McCurdy and others (including myself) are saying is it wouldn’t require a career year for Eberle to score 30.

He was on pace for 30+ playing with McDavid while scoring at a pretty normal rate relative to his career shooting%.

It’s also relatively early in Eberle’s career, he’s only 25. He’s in his prime. His career year could be his next one. Or the one after. There is plenty of road left in front of this cat, that’s for sure. The possibility of playing with 97 opens new heights as well IMO.

All true, other than Eberle turned 26 this off season. Plenty of blacktop ahead of him.

Chachi, nothing personal aimed at you, other than mentioning Eberle’s most persistent critic AsiaOil my comment was aimed at “you guys” and my frustration was with the tiny margins being discussed. Maybe Eberle scores 30, maybe he “only” scores 25, maybe he has a career year & scores 35. Pretty sure he’ll be somewhere in that range barring injury.

The idea that Eberle is somehow costing the Oilers games seems like overkill. The Oilers are costing the Oilers games. Mistakes get made on every goal against, and most of the guys making those mistakes don’t pull back 25+ goals and 60-ish points at the other end like Eberle does.

Indeed when you compare Eberle to other Oilers he really shines. All of his possession numbers — and I mean ALL of them — are positive relative to team, & that is true whether or not he played with Hall. Some years Hall & Eberle pumped each other’s numbers, other years they strengthened the “without you” side of those numbers. Either way, Eberle has been in the black in 36 out of 36 “relative” stats compiled by the late great War On Ice over the course of his career, with increasingly wider margins as the categories upgrade from Corsi to scoring chances to goal differential. Pretty clear to me from these numbers that he’s a lot more part of the solution than of the problem.

Professor Q

Yeah, and Nuge is only a small, overpaid third-line centre…

OF17

AsiaOil,

Eberle only deserved a bridge deal after his ELC? The same Eberle that averaged 29 goals and 66 points per 82 games over those first 3 years? I suppose by that metric Tarasenko also didn’t deserve a long-term deal, since he averaged 30 goals and 62 points per 82 games over his ELC (with a similar defensive reputation to Eberle).

It’s clear you don’t like the player, but you lose all claims to objectivity when you say things like that.

Not to mention, I fail to see how Eberle is overpaid when he’s been top-10 in RW points in 4 out of the last 6 years. The only players to match or beat that are St. Louis, Perry, Kane, Kessel, and Wheeler (Kane was the only one with 5). He’s the 7th highest paid RW, but he’s also one of the best in the league. I find it hard to argue he’s overpaid when the biggest RW contract list continues with Brown, Callahan, Radulov, Pominville, Wheeler, Iginla, Horton, Hossa, and Clarkson after Eberle. On this issue, you’re letting personal biases get in the way of objective analysis.

Centre of attention

Mr DeBakey: I’ll take Milan Lucic for $42,000,000 Alec.

Bingo. The Hall trade had more to do with being able to find a ‘replacement’ ASAP than it did with Eberle’s perceived lack of value.

The people who are pinning the Hall trade on Eberle because of Eb’s lack of value should be blaming Yak, Nuge, Pouliot equally as well. Why are they not perfect players with enough value to get us a defenseman like Larsson??

If you want to crucify Eberle for his back checking, fine. But don’t pretend like he’s cost the team Taylor Hall or even points in the standings. He helps the Oilers more than he hurts. The math is there to prove it.

I’m growing tired of this subject so this will be my last post on the matter. Hope everyone has a fantastic day and I can’t wait for the next RE 🙂

Pouzar

Centre of attention: So you’re saying Eberle leading the team in scoring every other year is not enough.

I give up.

Look at the f*cking team surrounding Eberle over those years. *sigh*

Ahh, the old frustrated “Just watch the games” argument.

Checkmate.

COA…don’t even bother man. It’s same people over and over.
Jordan Eberle doesn’t back check…yeah ok….even if that f6cking narrative were true it ranks
10,957,561 on the list of issues for this team.

Pouzar

rickithebear:
Ederle: 11-12 to 14-15
287/294 gm played 97.6%
4 seasons of 24G 63P
including 12-13 48gm 16G 37p prorated to 82gm 27g 63P

last year
missed 13gm
first 13gm 3G-11
last 56gm 22G 22A -1 a 32G 64P pace
if he is healthy he gets you 24G 63P min.

the list of players to score 24G last 5 years
14G in 12-13 prorates to 24G
LW
Ovechkin
Marchand
Pacioretty
Parise

Centers
Stamkos
Tavares
Carter
Pavelski
Toews
Sequin

RW:
Wessel
Perry
Eberle
Simmonds
the 14 most consistent top 50 G scorers in the league.

I will take his consistent G scoring and P production year to year.

Yeah but he’s overpaid.

Mr DeBakey

Bag of Pucks: Do you think Chia valued him more than Hall, or do the GMs around the league value Eberle less?

I’ll take Milan Lucic for $42,000,000 Alec.

Centre of attention

AsiaOil:
Ricki knows exactly what he’s doing by using 5 year averages – he never talks about last year or the last 3 years – that’s because you need to include Ebs sole 30 goal season 4 years ago to get the numbers into the range he wants. Averages can hide as much as they reveal and Ricki knows that very well. Ebs recent numbers are low end top line material and not great value for $6 million in cap – and the rest of the league realizing that cost us Hall in the effort to fix the defense.

I wanted to hang on to Hall at all costs but RNH and Ebs both at $6 million are not getting you anything decent in value given the cap hits these guys carry and performance delivered. Neither guy deserved anything more than a bridge deal at the end of their ELC and subsequent performance has been adequate but no bargain. Both guys are decent players but Oiler fans massively over-rate them – if they were really so valuable – do you really think Hall would have been first out the door to fix the defense?

I was not arguing for Eberle’s perceived value in the eyes of other GM’s. I am talking only about Eberle’s value to the Oilers. This shouldn’t be a pissing match about Eb’s value vs Taylors.

Why, are we blaming the Hall trade on Eberle now? Are we that desperate for a whipping boy? I never said Eberle was perfect. He has warts. His production eclipses those errors by a fair margin in my opinion is all I’m saying.

The entire team struggled to score goals over the last 3 years, with the third year marred by serious injuries to most of the top 6 (besides Hall) so it would be normal to see a slight drop in his production. The rest of the team sagged, but only Eberle gets crucified? Especially ridiculous considering Eberle is consistently one of the best offensive players on the team.

Eberle is not alone in his declining production is what I am trying to say. But it is also fair to say that he can bounce back same as the rest of them, like for example Nuge who had a tough year as well.

theres oil in virginia

Chachi: First of all, I have already said that as a fan I have unreasonable expectations when it comes to Eberle and it is the logical side of me that thinks his current level of performance is just fine. Saying he will not score 30 goals is not an attack on him, it is just a good bet given his career performance. I kind of resent you implying that it is some kind of attack on the man.

Second of all, given how close most NHL games are these days it is at the margins where games are won or lost. Eberle is just one of many players on the Oilers who has been unable to deliver that marginal bit of extra scoring (or defending or goalering as the case may be) over the years and that has led to the epic years of suck to which we have all been subjected. I think it is absolutely worth discussing that here given the type of blog this is.

Finally, I don’t think I mentioned Yak once all night so I will assume this is not directed at me. I am still surprised he remains a part of the team and still feel like he will be given away before the season starts. Whether he scores 8 or 20 goals it probably will not be here unless he fires Larionov and starts fresh with the team.

First, I’m sure Bruce was saying you are arguing about marginal increase (which you are), not making attacks. That’s Asia’s job.

Second, yes the Oilers have been awful, haven’t they. Ugh. 🙂

Finally, I’m at fault for bringing up Yak. I 100% disagree with comments above stating that Eberle gets a free pass and Yak gets slagged. All Oilers players get slagged. I like Yak, I hope he scores 30, I don’t think he ever will. Who’s fault it is will be argued for a decade.

hunter1909

It’s too hot to read through the posts, but no doubt there’s a healthy “trade the bum” call over Eberle, who after all was associated with another soon to become major Oilers villain TAYLOR HALL.

Of course, fans cannot wait to trade Yakupov away for peanuts, so let’s imagine the following:

Hall, Eberle, Yakupov and Darnell Nurse are all traded away for various returns to solidify McLellan’s drive for the playoffs. All instantly star for their new teams and Oiler fans have a decade of watching former Oilers turning up in late playoff rounds, while fans of other teams heartily mock them.

Everyone remembers how extra motivated olde Oilers play against the Lowe/MacT Dark Dynasty(tm).

AsiaOil

Ricki knows exactly what he’s doing by using 5 year averages – he never talks about last year or the last 3 years – that’s because you need to include Ebs sole 30 goal season 4 years ago to get the numbers into the range he wants. Averages can hide as much as they reveal and Ricki knows that very well. Ebs recent numbers are low end top line material and not great value for $6 million in cap – and the rest of the league realizing that cost us Hall in the effort to fix the defense.

I wanted to hang on to Hall at all costs but RNH and Ebs both at $6 million are not getting you anything decent in value given the cap hits these guys carry and performance delivered. Neither guy deserved anything more than a bridge deal at the end of their ELC and subsequent performance has been adequate but no bargain. Both guys are decent players but Oiler fans massively over-rate them – if they were really so valuable – do you really think Hall would have been first out the door to fix the defense?

Centre of attention: Quoting this for emphasis.

Ricki is very critical of those who are not good defensively. Even he will take the goals and deal with the rest.

Chachi

Wonder Llama:
Chachi,

Caught your act at the RNC. Not impressed.

I think you Trumped the shark.

Ha! Who would have guessed Scott Baio would be such an idiot; well everyone I suppose. Also, RIP Gary Marshall.

Wonder Llama

Chachi,

Caught your act at the RNC. Not impressed.

I think you Trumped the shark.

Chachi

Centre of attention: What McCurdy and others (including myself) are saying is it wouldn’t require a career year for Eberle to score 30.

He was on pace for 30+ playing with McDavid while scoring at a pretty normal rate relative to his career shooting%.

It’s also relatively early in Eberle’s career, he’s only 25. He’s in his prime. His career year could be his next one. Or the one after. There is plenty of road left in front of this cat, that’s for sure.

He’s 26 and he is going to be running headlong into the toughest opposition teams can throw at him all season. If you really liked the guy you would lower your expectations for him and be pleasantly surprised if he exceeds them. That is what I will be doing.

Centre of attention

Bag of Pucks: Now your’e just reframing your original post to move the goalposts. I can’t be bothered with this. Good night all.

Good night 🙂

I enjoy your posts by the way, hope I didn’t offend just because we disagree on something relatively minor!

Centre of attention

Chachi: No, you are reading things into my posts that aren’t there. People who expect him to have a career year this year are being unreasonable. I wish he could deliver more, because I like him as a player, but I don’t believe he is going to.

What McCurdy and others (including myself) are saying is it wouldn’t require a career year for Eberle to score 30.

He was on pace for 30+ playing with McDavid while scoring at a pretty normal rate relative to his career shooting%.

It’s also relatively early in Eberle’s career, he’s only 25. He’s in his prime. His career year could be his next one. Or the one after. There is plenty of road left in front of this cat, that’s for sure. The possibility of playing with 97 opens new heights as well IMO.

rickithebear

Bag of Pucks: Did Eberle play less mins under Eakins? If no, I don’t think you want to use a player not playing well for a particular coach as an excuse for the player? smacks of cherry picking.

Imagine a performance review if an employee excused his poor performance by saying, “yeah, I don’t really like my boss.”

Renney; Krueger; Nelson; Tmac 226gm -3

Eakins 115gm -23

look at Pouliot; RNH; production under eakins versus Krueger; Renney; Nelson; Tmac.

it is and was Eakins!

that 115gm stretch killed a collection of Defensive reps.

-3 PvP against the best of the west.

Centre of attention

If Eberle was so awful defensively, he would drag the teams on-ice metrics down the second he stepped on the ice.

Oh whats that? The Oilers are a better team goals & shots wise with Eberle on the ice than without? You don’t say.

Bag of Pucks

Centre of attention: Thats not what I said at all. I was saying that Eberle must be doing something correct defensively to be able to post decent possession numbers in relation to the rest of his team. So the “not back checking” narrative might run counter to his possession metrics wouldn’t it?

I agree the NHL is moving to a 200 foot game, and that at the other end of those 200 feet you need to score some goals. Jesse Puljujarvi is a great two way prospect, but he is still a prospect. Penciling him in as the future at this point in time is folly, IMO.

Now your’e just reframing your original post to move the goalposts. I can’t be bothered with this. Good night all.

Chachi

Centre of attention:
Chachi,

One argument you say Eberle’s production is fine, and that he is a fine NHL player and expecting him to do more is ridiculous.

Then you say Eberle not producing that “little bit more” is one of the reasons this team is terrible.

Pick a lane?

Expecting fully formed players with track records to play above their established level is one of the things that has made the Oilers as bad as they have been. I will pick the lane where reasonable means not expecting someone to have a career year.

Bag of Pucks

rickithebear: Chia was GM when Boston media said bruins had interest in Eberle.

I believe CHIA values.

Strong EVGA D:
Chara
Seidenberg
Boychuk
Ferencein cup year.

Quick transition to forward.
Decent EVA/60

He values EVG production;
shooting %
GF production
Minimal missed games.
less frail

the names you kept hearing as trade possibilities.
Hall 9.7 Shooting %
averaged 14 missed gm per season for career

RNH 11.2 Shooting %
Averaged 14 missed gm per season

Pouliot15.4 shooting %
Averaged 26 missed gm with oilers

Yakupov 7.5 shooting %
Averaged 14 missed gm last 3 years

Who he added:
RW Kassian: 14.3 shooting % last 3 years
6’3″ 217lb

LW maroon 10.4%
6’3″ 230b
averaged 10 missed gm a season

LW Lucic14.8%
6’4″233b
Averaged 1 missed gm a season

Interesting. Hadn’t noticed the commonality with Shooting %. Good spot.

Centre of attention

Bag of Pucks: The point of my post is essentially that the NHL is evolving to a 200ft full court press game and it’s likelythe Oil will go with the 1RW most capable of playing that game. Your original reply seems to be that back checking doesn’t matter, so yeah, not a lot of intelligent debate to be had.

Thats not what I said at all. I was saying that Eberle must be doing something correct defensively to be able to post decent possession numbers in relation to the rest of his team. So the “not back checking” narrative might run counter to his possession metrics wouldn’t it?

I agree the NHL is moving to a 200 foot game, and that at the other end of those 200 feet you need to score some goals. Jesse Puljujarvi is a great two way prospect, but he is still a prospect. Penciling him in as the future at this point in time is folly, IMO.

Until Puljujarvi earns his place, I will take Eberle’s 24 goals and 63 points as well as his occasional missed assignment.

rickithebear

Bag of Pucks: Do you think Chia valued him more than Hall, or do the GMs around the league value Eberle less?

Chia was GM when Boston media said bruins had interest in Eberle.

I believe CHIA values.

Strong EVGA D:
Chara
Seidenberg
Boychuk
Ferencein cup year.

Quick transition to forward.
Decent EVA/60

He values EVG production;
shooting %
GF production
Minimal missed games.
less frail

the names you kept hearing as trade possibilities.
Hall 9.7 Shooting %
averaged 14 missed gm per season for career

RNH 11.2 Shooting %
Averaged 14 missed gm per season

Pouliot 15.4 shooting %
Averaged 26 missed gm with oilers

Yakupov 7.5 shooting %
Averaged 14 missed gm last 3 years

Who he added:
RW Kassian: 14.3 shooting % last 3 years
6’3″ 217lb

LW maroon 10.4%
6’3″ 230b
averaged 10 missed gm a season

LW Lucic 14.8%
6’4″233b
Averaged 1 missed gm a season

Chachi

Centre of attention: See, this part of your argument is clashing with the rest. It makes it difficult to suss out what you’re trying to say now. Expecting him to do more is unreasonable. The fucking team around him has to get better because the improvement is not going to come from him.

Do you like Eberle or not? Lol.

No, you are reading things into my posts that aren’t there. People who expect him to have a career year this year are being unreasonable. I wish he could deliver more, because I like him as a player, but I don’t believe he is going to.

Centre of attention

Chachi,

One argument you say Eberle’s production is fine, and that he is a fine NHL player and expecting him to do more is ridiculous.

Then you say Eberle not producing that “little bit more” is one of the reasons this team is terrible.

Pick a lane?

Bag of Pucks

Centre of attention: At the time I read and quoted it, you answered 4 of them. Rather poorly if I may add, leading me to ask for a more thorough rebuttal. If we all answer with one word will we ever have any intelligent debate?

The point of my post is essentially that the NHL is evolving to a 200ft full court press game and it’s likely the Oil will go with the 1RW most capable of playing that game. Your original reply seems to be that back checking doesn’t matter, so yeah, not a lot of intelligent debate to be had.

Centre of attention

Chachi: How many times do I have to say that the offence that Eberle delivers is just fine for the type of player that he is before it sinks in? He is what he is, a fine NHL player.

See, this part of your argument is clashing with the rest. It makes it difficult to suss out what you’re trying to say now.

Do you like Eberle or not? Lol.

Centre of attention

Bag of Pucks: You asked 5 questions. I responded to each. Yes to the second question means yes I’m sure. Go back and watch the finals if you don’t believe me.

At the time I read and quoted it, you answered 4 of them. Rather poorly if I may add, leading me to ask for a more thorough rebuttal. If we all answer with one word will we ever have any intelligent debate? 🙂

Chachi

Centre of attention: So you’re saying Eberle leading the team in scoring every other year is not enough.

I give up.

Look at the f*cking team surrounding Eberle over those years. *sigh*

Ahh, the old frustrated “Just watch the games” argument.

Checkmate.

How many times do I have to say that the offence that Eberle delivers is just fine for the type of player that he is before it sinks in? The marginal improvement is not going to come from him. He is what he is, a fine NHL player. Expecting him to do more is unreasonable. The fucking team around him has to get better because the improvement is not going to come from him. What part of that do you disagree with?

Bag of Pucks

Centre of attention: So you’re saying Eberle leading the team in scoring every other year is not enough and him not scoring enough (while leading the fucking team) is the reason this team sucks.

I give up.

Look at the f*cking team surrounding Eberle over those years. *sigh*

Ahh, the old frustrated “Just watch the games” argument.

Checkmate.

There’s no stats for back checking so what else do you expect me to say? It’s what I saw watching the games. I don’t consider it my burden to prove to you that I’m not a liar.

Centre of attention

Chachi:

Second of all, given how close most NHL games are these days it is at the margins where games are won or lost. Eberle is just one of many players on the Oilers who has been unable to deliver that marginal bit of extra scoring (or defending or goalering as the case may be) over the years and that has led to the epic years of suck to which we have all been subjected. I think it is absolutely worth discussing that here given the type of blog this is.

So you’re saying Eberle leading the team in scoring every other year is not enough.

I give up.

Look at the f*cking team surrounding Eberle over those years. *sigh*

Bag of Pucks: You asked 5 questions. I responded to each. Yes to the second question means yes I’m sure. Go back and watch the finals if you don’t believe me.

Ahh, the old frustrated “Just watch the games” argument.

Checkmate.

Bag of Pucks

rickithebear: So eberle Helthy and not coached by eakins in last 5 years
226gm
90G 110A 200P -3
.398 GPG .877 PPG -.015 GDPG

Eakins and hurt:
128gm
37g 51A 88P -34
.298 GPG .688 PPG -.266 GDPG

Did Eberle play less mins under Eakins? If no, I don’t think you want to use a player not playing well for a particular coach as an excuse for the player? smacks of cherry picking.

Imagine a performance review if an employee excused his poor performance by saying, “yeah, I don’t really like my boss.”

rickithebear

Ryan:
AsiaOil,

Agreed.Eberle’s value in terms of performance relative to contract has been ebbing to the point that he wasn’t traded simply because of lack of potential return rather than any inherent qualities that he possesses.

So eberle Helthy and not coached by eakins in last 5 years
226gm
90G 110A 200P -3
.398 GPG .877 PPG -.015 GDPG

Eakins and hurt:
128gm
37g 51A 88P -34
.298 GPG .688 PPG -.266 GDPG

Bag of Pucks

Centre of attention: Can you elaborate please? What are you agreeing with and what are you disagreeing with?

I’m saying that Phil Kessel doesn’t really back check more than Eberle, he just appeared better defensively because the HBK line was ripping up third line competition. That means you’re agreeing that your comment about Kessel “changing his ways” is bogus.

What are you saying no too? Eberle being adequate defensively or the “singular moments” theory?

You asked 5 questions. I responded to each. Yes to the second question means yes I’m sure. Go back and watch the finals if you don’t believe me.

Chachi

Bruce McCurdy: yeah you’re right, as Pouzar pointed out he only averages 28 goals per 82 so obviously it is a huge stretch to think he might get to 30. Playing with McDavid. Point being you guys are arguing about the margins. Except for Asia who if nothing else is consistent in his attacks.

A lot bigger leap for Yak to go from 8 to 20 or whatever.Sure it’s possible but it’s far more debatable in my view.

First of all, I have already said that as a fan I have unreasonable expectations when it comes to Eberle and it is the logical side of me that thinks his current level of performance is just fine. Saying he will not score 30 goals is not an attack on him, it is just a good bet given his career performance. I kind of resent you implying that it is some kind of attack on the man.

Second of all, given how close most NHL games are these days it is at the margins where games are won or lost. Eberle is just one of many players on the Oilers who has been unable to deliver that marginal bit of extra scoring (or defending or goalering as the case may be) over the years and that has led to the epic years of suck to which we have all been subjected. I think it is absolutely worth discussing that here given the type of blog this is.

Finally, I don’t think I mentioned Yak once all night so I will assume this is not directed at me. I am still surprised he remains a part of the team and still feel like he will be given away before the season starts. Whether he scores 8 or 20 goals it probably will not be here unless he fires Larionov and starts fresh with the team.

Centre of attention

Bag of Pucks: Yes.
Yes.
Yes. No.

Can you elaborate please? What are you agreeing with and what are you disagreeing with?

I’m saying that Phil Kessel doesn’t really back check more than Eberle, he just appeared better defensively because the HBK line was ripping up third line competition. That means you’re agreeing that your comment about Kessel “changing his ways” is bogus.

What are you saying no too? Eberle being adequate defensively or the “singular moments” theory?

Bag of Pucks

rickithebear:
Ederle: 11-12 to 14-15
287/294 gm played 97.6%
4 seasons of 24G 63P
including 12-13 48gm 16G 37p prorated to 82gm 27g 63P

last year
missed 13gm
first 13gm 3G-11
last 56gm 22G 22A -1 a 32G 64P pace
if he is healthy he gets you 24G 63P min.

the list of players to score 24G last 5 years
14G in 12-13 prorates to 24G
LW
Ovechkin
Marchand
Pacioretty
Parise

Centers
Stamkos
Tavares
Carter
Pavelski
Toews
Sequin

RW:
Wessel
Perry
Eberle
Simmonds
the 14 most consistent top 50 G scorers in the league.

I will take his consistent G scoring and P production year to year.

Do you think Chia valued him more than Hall, or do the GMs around the league value Eberle less?

Bag of Pucks

Centre of attention: wait wait wait… Phil Kessel back checks now?

Are you sure he didn’t just eat up third line competition, possessing the puck so much that he didn’t really need to back check?

It’s hard to follow the narratives nowadays. Does “not back checking” even effect your shot differential? Eberle is just about a 50% player. Doesn’t that mean he is adequate defensively? Or is it those singular moments that get burned into peoples minds?

Yes.
Yes.
Yes. No. No.

Centre of attention

rickithebear:
Ederle: 11-12 to 14-15
287/294 gm played 97.6%
4 seasons of 24G 63P
including 12-13 48gm 16G 37p prorated to 82gm 27g 63P

last year
missed 13gm
first 13gm 3G-11
last 56gm 22G 22A -1 a 32G 64P pace
if he is healthy he gets you 24G 63P min.

the list of players to score 24G last 5 years
14G in 12-13 prorates to 24G
LW
Ovechkin
Marchand
Pacioretty
Parise

Centers
Stamkos
Tavares
Carter
Pavelski
Toews
Sequin

RW:
Wessel
Perry
Eberle
Simmonds
the 14 most consistent top 50 G scorers in the league.

I will take his consistent G scoring and P production year to year.

Quoting this for emphasis.

Ricki is very critical of those who are not good defensively. Even he will take the goals and deal with the rest.

rickithebear

Ederle: 11-12 to 14-15
287/294 gm played 97.6%
4 seasons of 24G 63P
including 12-13 48gm 16G 37p prorated to 82gm 27g 63P

last year
missed 13gm
first 13gm 3G -11
last 56gm 22G 22A -1 a 32G 64P pace
if he is healthy he gets you 24G 63P min.

the list of players to score 24G last 5 years
14G in 12-13 prorates to 24G
LW
Ovechkin
Marchand
Pacioretty
Parise

Centers
Stamkos
Tavares
Carter
Pavelski
Toews
Sequin

RW:
Wessel
Perry
Eberle
Simmonds
the 14 most consistent top 50 G scorers in the league.

I will take his consistent G scoring and P production year to year.