MATH, AND YOU!

by Lowetide

Welcome to the first discussion of the Las Vegas expansion draft, or as you will come to know it, ‘Cleanup on Aisle 3’ if it holds to form. The first thing to remember: For the Edmonton Oilers organization, Las Vegas is the enemy. The idea? Send them overpriced junk, and plenty of it. If you have a romantic idea about Vegas getting a fair shake, please, please, please reconsider baby.

REACH FOR THE SKY, SUCKER

The first modern NHL Expansion Draft consisted of 20 rounds, and took place on June 6, 1967. Montreal Canadiens GM Sam Pollock was the man in charge of putting together the draft rules and set about formulating a plan that would be approved by the board of governors while allowing Montreal to retain all of the top flight talent, major and minor leagues. Protected lists and ineligible lists for 1967 are here.

At first each of the established teams were going to be permitted to protect 8 skaters and 1 goalie, but the original 6 teams felt it was too harsh and they moved the bar to 11 skaters, 1 goalie, and any junior aged players signed the previous season. ALL of the NHL teams benefited from the junior age rule, Boston didn’t need to protect Derek Sanderson or Bobby Orr, Toronto had no need to protect Jim McKenny, New York didn’t have to find a slot for Billy Fairbairn or Walt Tkaczuk. A full list (or close to) is available in volume one of this series.

Montreal was still very vulnerable though, owing to the rich junior and minor league system they had built up over time (the Habs had two AHL teams and a couple in the old WHL they would send extra prospects to like the Seattle Totems) and Pollock came up with a plan that went like this (courtesy Montreal Gazette, June 5, 1967): those who played pro hockey for the first time in 66-67 are exempt from being drafted until the eastern (established) clubs have 2 goalies and 18 other players on their list. Hence the Canadiens do not have to protect rookie Rogie Vachon until they’ve lost a goalie, or players such as Bob Lemieux, Carol Vadnais, Serge Savard and Danny Grant until they are nearing completion of the 18-man roster. This may be one of the smartest moves by a General Manager in the game’s history, and it saved Montreal from losing the names above, plus Jacques Lemaire and others. The Habs had the deepest system, Pollock was given permission to protect his empire, and he did—effectively changing the balance of power for the next one dozen seasons. These are the facts as we know them today. More expansion history in the days to follow—and we will get into this a lot once the final expansion rules are agreed upon. Expect minor changes throughout 2016 and then some criminal changes in the weeks before the expansion draft.

reinhart bak

PSST! THE ANSWER IS REINHART

The thing to remember about Edmonton in this expansion draft is that the priority is to lose a big contract, and the goal is to protect all (ALL) contracts of real value.

CURRENT RULES

Clubs will have two options for players they wish to protect in the Expansion Draft:

  • a) Seven forwards, three defensemen and one goaltender
  • b) Eight skaters (forwards/defensemen) and one goaltender
  1. All players who have currently effective and continuing “No Movement” clauses at the time of the Expansion Draft (and who to decline to waive such clauses) must be protected (and will be counted toward their club’s applicable protection limits). (Milan Lucic, Andrej Sekera and Cam Talbot)
  2. All first- and second-year professionals, as well as all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward their club’s applicable protection limits). (Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse plus all of the 2014, 2015 and 2016 draft picks not including Leon Draisaitl).

This is my understanding of the Oilers situation. I will do two protected lists, one for each of the categories above:

  • 7F,3D,1G—Cam Talbot, Andrej Sekera, Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl, Milan Lucic, Jordan Eberle, Benoit Pouliot, Patrick Maroon, Zack Kassian.

If Edmonton goes this route, the club will lose Brandon Davidson. Even exposing a player like Benoit Pouliot or Patrick Maroon would not be enough. If Edmonton goes this route, and Davidson is not chosen, expect the two teams to make a deal after the expansion draft (Edmonton sending away compensation).

  • 8S, 1G—Cam Talbot, Andrej Sekera, Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Brandon Davidson, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl, Milan Lucic, Jordan Eberle.

In this scenario, Edmonton is hoping to send away Benoit Pouliot ($4 million) and the expansion team’s list probably includes Griffin Reinhart, Laurent Brossoit, Jordan Oesterle, Jujhar Khaira and Nail Yakupov. Why? Las Vegas can sign their own free agents, why grab everyone’s $4 million dollar winger? For the record, I would in fact grab a player in his early 20s. The best available veterans (Pouliot and Fayne) will be duplicated across many rosters, and those contract totals are going to add up quickly. I think the answer is Reinhart, because he satisfies a real issue for Las Vegas:

  • The Las Vegas franchise must select players with an aggregate Expansion Draft value that is between 60-100% of the prior season’s upper limit for the salary cap.

WOODMONEY!

fayne woodmoney

Via Because Oilers

On the show this morning between 10 and 11, Darcy McLeod (Because Oilers) and G (Oilers Nerd Alert) will join me in search of answers. The truth is out there, and we will find out what these men have been up to with their high powered computers and giant foreheads!

WOODMONEY OIL BLUE VS. ELITE

woodmoney elite

  • Based on my reading of The WoodMoney, the ideal pairing against the toughest opposition is Davidson—Larsson.
  • Klefbom and Sekera are the second most effective pairing against the toughest opponents, and Nurse would be No. 5. No idea if Sekera zoomed his number, but we are here.
  • Fayne and Reinhart should not be considered options against the toughest opposition based on the WoodMoney.

WOODMONEY OIL BLUE VS. MUDDLE

woodmoney muddle

  • If Davidson—Larsson are fighting the toughs (as above), there are three reasonable options against the mid-level opposition.
  • Oscar Klefom, Mark Fayne and Andrej Sekera have good numbers in this area.
  • Nurse and Reinhart—rookies—are the least effective against this group, and that should come as no surprise.

WOODMONEY OIL BLUE VS. DREGS

woodmoney dregs

  • If Davidson—Larsson and Klefbom—Sekera are the top two pairings, the third pairing may be Reinhart—Fayne based on these numbers.
  • If the top 6D are those men this fall, would you be surprised?
  • More this morning at 10!

DANGEROUS TALBOT

https://twitter.com/SteveBurtch/status/755934452136734720

One of the key players in Peter Chiarelli’s 2016-17 season is Cam Talbot. Stephen Burtch posted these numbers last night and Talbot performs well in a three year window in HDSA. The larger the body of evidence, the more we can trust these numbers. Three years is a reasonable pile of evidence, and if Talbot can deliver three seasons as starter in this range there is some promise that this position is solved. A stronger backup option would have been the smart play, but (as I have mentioned) Laurent Brossoit is probably the backup for much of 2016-17.

ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER NAIL

Jonathan Willis has a story up on Nail Yakupov and his gutter value in trade this morning, along with some discussion about the coming season. I have some hope that Peter Chiarelli brings Nail back and parks his ass on the McDavid line. Whenever I say that, comes the line ‘he doesn’t deserve the McDavid line!’ and my retort is that we should look at it from a different view.

Jordan Eberle can make music on a line with Nuge and Pouliot, he has proven it. Nail Yakupov performed well with Connor McDavid, we have some evidence of it. It is not ideal—suspect the coach would prefer another—but this is still a building team and Nail Yakupov has more value than other teams are apparently giving him credit for at this time.

Nail on a scoring line gives Jesse Puljujarvi a chance to push up without pressure, and gives Yakupov a chance to increase his trade value. I do not see Yakupov as a long term solution—it is shocking he outlasted Taylor Hall as an Oiler—but increasing NY’s value is just good business. It could happen just this way.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

  • Hour 1—Woodmoney! Darcy McLeod (Because Oilers) and G Money (Oilers Nerd Alert) will join me for the entire hour to discuss their new measuring stick. We will not get into mind-numbing math, but will discuss the value of parsing these dangerous Fenwicks into three categories, and Dangerous Fenwick itself.
  • Jeff Veillette, Leafs Nation. What in the h-e-double-hockey-sticks is Lou doing?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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New Improved Darkness

The joke was supposed to be that today’s young adults—having worn out their virtual thumbs—require lingerie that’s less skimpy to get into the mood (hence making these garments that much more expensive again).

But I learned my lesson long ago—does anyone recall my blighted Yak celly post?—that you can’t make small repairs in dialog. Every phrase is a snap of the fingers response to three words, or half a thought, or a belated, Freudian course correction that lingers but for a moment.

Even when the conversationalists wander off into their own separate worlds (I call this my “reality” technique), the cadence back and forth remains minutely interlocked.

Real conversations, too, are pregnant with ideas that fall through the cracks—ideas almost voiced many times, but never quite, in the mayhem of interchange.

Lou postures as if 1960—back when he was 18 (thank you, Wikipedia)—was all moral rectitude and privation, but my fictional Matt—who has perhaps engaged in some kind of occult sorcery with feminine biomaterials obtained from a shower trap to obtain this preternatural wisdom (otherwise, problem: he’s about five years more mature in my narrative than Conner at the same age) isn’t so sure that the 1960s Lou pretends to remember has much in common with the real things, so he’s poking a bit, to see whether he can bring Lou onto common ground, as endorsed by those cheesy business books I shall refrain from naming; of course, no occult sorcery goes unpunished, he’s since his unholy shower-trap offering, he’s been overtaken with a compulsion to rewatch tiny bits of Psycho over and over again, sometimes for hours at a go.

Of course, once Lou substitutes Carrie for Carnine, you just know he’s going to crack under Matt’s onslaught of sixties nostalgia, probably sooner rather than later. Turns out, all these years he’s been playing the trap for sound psychological reasons. Who knew?

———

I was actually thinking while I wrote that Carrie was closer in time to The Exorcist. Hard to believe that Carrie was the year before Star Wars. Haven’t seen either (I’ll give you three guesses …), but both made a mark on me.

For Carrie, now that this comes back to me, I was at precisely the age (thirteen) where the subject matter was so far away, and yet far too close to home. Perhaps this accounts for my accumulated fog.

Back in grade three, I classmates come up to me to ask me if I’d seen The Exorcist yet. My father at this time is the United Church minister in a small Alberta town. “No, I haven’t, but did you hear?—Johnny [son of the Baptist minister] got a nickel-bag for his birthday last week.”

I didn’t actually say that at the time. Morally, I was raised under in the 1-2-3-many counting system. One: not making your bed. Two: not washing your hands. Three: not doing your homework. Many: Just about every other unthinkable thing / don’t look back, pillar of salt.

With this filter on the home front, the sixties exist for me pretty much exclusively at a subliminal level—like the blood stains that remain on the carpet, after the body is dumped. I could kind of feel its persistence in weird ways that I didn’t fully decode until decades later.

1958–1960, a few years before I was born, is about the pinnacle of uncomfortably alien, yet weirdly familiar. Somehow there was a bit of a sharp break between the sixties and the seventies that made this decade all the more difficult to assimilate, later.

———

Operation Giant Lance

Never heard of that until just now, but indeed, the “secret” swinger had his paws all over it.

Operation Giant Lance was a secret military operation by the United States that threatened a nuclear attack on the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

On October 10, 1969, on the advice of National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger, U.S. President Richard Nixon issued the order.

Preparations were made to send a squadron of 18 B-52s of the 92d Strategic Aerospace Wing loaded with nuclear weapons to fly toward the Soviet Union. It was hoped that this would convince the Soviets that Nixon was willing to resort to nuclear war in order to win the Vietnam War.

The squadron took off on October 27 and flew towards the Soviet Union. Actions were designed to be detectable by the Soviets.

Nixon canceled the operation on October 30.

The plan was part of Nixon’s madman theory, a concept based on game theory, and its details remained unknown to the public until Freedom of Information Act requests in the 2000s revealed documents about the operation.

So, the sixties almost went out with a suitable bang. Change was in the air, already.

Beginning in 1970, American troops were withdrawn from border areas where most of the fighting took place, and instead redeployed along the coast and interior, which is one reason why casualties in 1970 were less than half of 1969’s totals.

Here’s another weird thing. Whether you remember the sixties or the seventies as the “swinging” decade, depends of your side of the pond.

The lyric “making love in the afternoon” was among Simon’s most explicit at the time. Simon says that, during the song’s initial success [April 1970], he came upon a recently returned Vietnam War veteran. The man told Simon that soldiers heard the song and found it a sign of the country’s changing mores.

I remember the seventies mainly for MPAA-castrated family programming, in which body parts (severed) were a great deal more permissible that body parts (conjoined). Valenti took the helm in 1966, and always took a hard line on depictions of feminine pleasure (three moans, and you’re out).

But back in 1964, Valenti was a Houston ad executive newly installed at the White House as a top aide to President Lyndon B. Johnson. And J. Edgar Hoover’s FBI found itself quietly consumed with the vexing question of whether Valenti was gay.

Oh, yes. J. Edgar. A river runs through it.

When Richard Nixon took office in January 1969, Hoover had just turned 74. There was a growing sentiment in Washington, DC that the aging FBI chief needed to go, but his power and friends in Congress remained too strong for him to be forced into retirement.

Hoover remained director of the FBI until he died in his Washington, D.C. home of a heart attack, on May 2, 1972.

Circa 1972.

“Mommy, why was Nixon so afraid of Hoover?”

“Uh, here’s $5. Why don’t you do something useful, like take your younger bother and sister to see The Exorcist? Oh, and here’s a nickle bag. Try to save some for the week end. Now be a good boy, and don’t ask me that that kind of question ever again.”

———

Kissinger, Valenti, Nixon, Hoover. All pervasive figures of fear my parents refused to voice.

Hockey has gaps and cretins, too, but they’re different and not quite as frightening.

New Improved Darkness

Darn, they got it done while I was typing, and the story was all smoke to begin with.

But … once I got to that line with P.M., there was no turning back.

It almost reads like I just read two books in two days on relationship-focused business tactics. I can’t even write down the second title. It’s too embarrassing.

New Improved Darkness

Ca$h-McMoney!: Interestingly Lou would argue he’s thinking long term.

While Lou could argue that he’ll make it all back in endorsements if Toronto builds a winner by minding its purse—I’m sure Auston knows Toronto has been both flush and double flush–worthy for a very long time—when a young phenom worries he’s going to wind up becoming the Face of Flounder III—for our tire fire, we’re now pumping the arctic ocean dry—he’s definitely going to want all his bonuses to the max, times three for Punic damages.

The premium really ought to go in the direction of not winning, but alas such would be seen as a perverse incentive.

———

Queen Alissar was an exiled princess of the ancient Phoenician city of Tyre. At its peak, the metropolis she founded, Carthage, came to be called the “shining city”.

You can’t make this up. Fast forward four centuries.

In 149 BC, in an attempt to draw Carthage into open conflict, Rome made a series of escalating demands, one being the surrender of three hundred children of the nobility as hostages, and finally ending with the near-impossible demand that the city be demolished and rebuilt away from the coast, deeper into Africa.

When the Carthaginians refused this last demand, Rome declared the Third Punic War.

Having previously relied on underpaid free agents to fight their wars for them, the Carthaginians were now forced into a more active role in the defense of their city. They made thousands of makeshift weapons in a short time, even using women’s hair for catapult strings, and were able to hold off the initial Roman attack.

A second offensive under the command of Scipio Aemilianus resulted in a three-year siege before he breached the walls, sacked the city, and systematically burned Carthage for 17 days; the city’s walls and buildings were utterly destroyed.

———

Hilary Hunter: How’d it go today, honey?

Matt: Looou-balled again.

Hilary: Ooooh. Balls! That bad?

Matt: Worse. Hey, have you ever considered cutting your hair short?

Hilary: You don’t like my hair?!

Mathew: Love your hair! But, you know, maybe you could be even more amazing—

Hilary: —bald?

Matt: Forget I mentioned it.

Hilary: I’ll get right on that.

Matt: Uh, are we talking hours, weeks, or years?

Hilary: If I were you, I’d hold out for that contract bonus, it’s the only one you’re likely to get for the rest of your ELC.

Hilary storms out of the room.

Matt: [to himself] I know! I’ll put a trap in the shower drain. But how to get her into the shower three times a day?

Think, Mathew, think.

———

Two days later.

Lou: Oh, to be young again, and have the world by the tail. Why when I was your age—

Matt: —can I hazard a guess that Psycho was big that year?—

Lou: —matter of fact, I have some fond memories … uh … of a pleasant drive home, in good company … wearing my best smile … uh … you know, the smile including all my original teeth.

Matt: Sounds like good times. Personally, I still like the shower scene. Grandpa, er, Grandpa’s buddy—he had a round face so we used to call him Matthau—once told me you could take your truck for a buck.

Lou: ‘Take’? You mean ‘shake’! Man, the roads back then! Good times indeed—actually called them “dollar days”, which covered the whole car, not counting gas, mind you. From New Jersey, the nearest outdoor theatre screening Psycho was off in upstate New York—so we said—years later, on the trip up to Woodstock we were all joking “where’s that old drive-in?”—but in reality, it was not far from Princeton.

Matt: Well, why didn’t you go to Woodstock? All the better to run dry.

Lou: Mooo. Too many cows. Besides, who’s waiting until after the movie to run out of gas? Most times, I was halfway out of gas by the third act. Very tense! Something about Hitchcock wears a guy out. Hey, one thing I never figured out, do you think all that money is still there in the trunk of the car? You know, the one they drag from the swamp right at the end?

Matt: Yeah, probably. But you probably shouldn’t ask me, you know we have rewind these days. My entire generation is a little fuzzy on how movies end.

Lou: Yes, I have heard. Please do us all a favour and spare the thumb on your stick hand, if you don’t mind. … Back in our day, we had twenty-four hours to rewind all the way. Full and complete recovery! Home late, ten-mile run before sun-up. Now, about that contract of yours …

Matt: Right. I was meaning to ask you something. When’s the last time you checked out the prices at Carine Gilson?

Lou: Carine who?

Matt: So, I’m guessing “not recently”? The thing is, girls these days, you know, they don’t regard Victoria’s Secret as much of anything special.

Lou: Oh, come on, now! For a girl who knows … uh … for any kind of girl, I think Victoria’s skimpy enough.

Matt: Not from what I’ve heard. Word on the street is that it’s too skimpy.

Lou: Too skimpy? Or too stingy? Hmmmm? Well, what is this Carrie of yours?

Matt: Not Carrie, Carine.

Matt begins to pull up a screen on his tablet. Lou wheels around in his chair—giant castors the size of Pierre McGuire’s bald spot make short work of the plush carpet—to take a gander up close.

Lou: Well, carve me up with a hand axe! $350 for a silk doily? The whole thing could hardly weigh an ounce—in customs terms, we must be talking ten large per key.

Matt: Marone! You can take the man out of Jersey, but you can’t take Jersey out of the man. So, it has been a while, huh?

Lou: Well, I wouldn’t exactly call these things … necessities.

Matt: Bare necessities.

Matt flicks his finger at the iridium-alloy nibbed fountain pen, which dervishes to the other side of Lou’s giant mahogany desk, there taking up residence in a bright column of dust motes, gyrating the sunbeam like a a gypsy Cossack dancer, or a drum majorette’s coin-cell–powered beanie propeller, as perceived by the less poetic.

Lou: Now don’t you go changing the subject! That’s not the kind of “performance” bonus we had under discussion, here.

Matt: Really?

Lou: [still distracted] My lord, $350 for a doily—you practically need bifocals just to see it!

Matt: Think it over. We’ll be back tomorrow.

Matt reaches for his tablet. Lou startles, his gaze breaking away from the tablet with a microscopic hitch of subconscious reluctance—though it might as well have been carved in stone. Matt aborts his reach with a suave, upward palm flip, top shelf.

Matt: Nah, keep it. We’ve got two more at home.

Matt and his agent—still gagged with duct tape—head out the door.

Lou: [to himself] Man! Did you see that palm flip. [Rubs hands together.] The reflexes on that kid!

Pauses. Rubs fingers together.

Marone! This is not going to be cheap.

Now how do you scroll this thing? Toe drag! Sweet! But don’t get fancy … a simple north-south with the index finger, that will do it.

———

The next day.

Lou: Hello, Matt? How are you today?

Matt: Just fine, thanks. How’s your index finger holding up?

Lou: [frowns, feigning ignorance] Why do you ask?

Matt: Never mind. Question for you. Is it true that the 1960 Cadillac Fleetwood came with four powered vent windows? In addition to all the regular powered windows? That must have been a sweet ride.

Lou: When I was your age, we flipped through the Sears catalog while sitting on the john in the bathroom, until someone else pounded the door.

Matt: Eight powered window controls on the driver’s side door. Welcome to the space age, huh?

Lou: Nonsense, kiddo. The Apollo program hadn’t even started yet, but you know what—maybe you’re onto something—maybe some of those car designers were already bucking for their shot at the big one, as the Svengali of inaccessible wire harness grommets.

Matt: Sure must have been a sweet ride with all systems go …

Lou: [leans over] Never had one myself, but a buddy of mine … yeah, baby, yeah! … it was a sweet ride. But as you know, cars have improved a lot over the years, and it’s simply amazing the kind of ultimate performance machine one can afford these days on a second contract.

square_wheels

stevezie,

Alex is such a great listen if you’re looking for an Art Bell replacement. The car that takes me to the airport weekly always has Bell on when he’s driving and I secretly love listening to the bat-shit crazy lizard men rule the world discussion.

Truth

Loved the fact that the Oilers were one of the initial teams to jump on the analytics wave. Dellow gone now is unsettling. I sure hope it doesn’t mean that the “Spector’s” of the organization won. If so, ugh.

Can’t the team approach players to waive their NTC for the expansion draft? I’d have already requested that Sekera consider waiving his and would also get his list of teams he would go to in case he decides not to waive it. Sekera wouldn’t get picked if he was available to be drafted, right?

stevezie

hunter1909: It wasn’t that they didn’t know he was right. They always knew he was right. They just thought he was an asshole(which he was).

This is a really good point. Being right is nice, but it doesn’t do you much good if youcan’t get anyone on your side. (Also, i was about to say something similar)

stevezie

square_wheels,

My tinfoil hat buddy has turned on Jones, but not for any reasons that make sense. Still…. progress?

hunter1909

Klima's_Bucket:
hunter1909,

Really? You think Lucic is an upgrade on JF Jacques?

Quinn would smile seeing Lucic, Nurse, Maroon, and Kassian together in a big game.

square_wheels

Professor Q,

I have a tinfoil hat buddy that argues Alex Jones is the modern version of this !

Throw enough conspiracy theory against the wall eventually one of them sticks. Last weekend I was shown the “magic flying ball” that took out the World Trade Center video……I promptly drank myself to sleep.

hunter1909

kinger_OIL: Now if MacT’s contract wasn’t renewed, that would be something

Galileo scores off the rush – to win the cup in OT – before MacT goes anywhere.

hunter1909

Bruce McCurdy: They’ll come around eventually. For example, it only took the Catholic church 359 years to pardon Galileo and admit he had been right all along.

It wasn’t that they didn’t know he was right. They always knew he was right. They just thought he was an asshole(which he was).

godot10

G Money: LT asked a similar question on the air.

It’s quite informative to read up on the history of e.g. medicine, when modern analytical methods transformed a shit-laden snake oil industry into an evidence-based field, with vast improvements in outcomes as a result.If you tried to suggest they go back to doing things as done a century ago, they’d laugh you out of the room (even if they wanted to, the publicity from the spike in preventable deaths would be catastrophic).

But medicine and a lot of science is trending back to being a shit-laden snake-oil industry.

For example:
http://www.vox.com/2016/7/14/12016710/science-challeges-research-funding-peer-review-process

Bruce McCurdy

Professor Q: And nothing for poor ol’ Copernicus…

I’m just joking of course. They took 500 years for him.

Unlike Galileo, Copernicus wasn’t placed under house arrest. He took the clever precaution of dying before Dē revolutionibus orbium coelestium was published.

His name was mud for a while there, though.

Doug McLachlan

dustrock: QUEEN FOR RE SERIES

I think LT is saving the band of “We Are The Champions” and “Princes of the Universe” for a massive post-Cup Re series in the, hopefully, not too distant future.

Lot of options there.

Professor Q

Bruce McCurdy: They’ll come around eventually. For example, it only took the Catholic church 359 years to pardon Galileo and admit he had been right all along.

And nothing for poor ol’ Copernicus…

I’m just joking of course. They took 500 years for him.

dustrock

Lowetide: Bismillah! We will not let you go – let him go

QUEEN FOR RE SERIES

square_wheels

LMHF#1,

Spot on. G doesn’t toot his own horn about his business success but I’m certain he could skate circles around many NHL exec’s.

Now, if anyone is willing to work for 60k/yr but eat all the popcorn you can handle while explaining to the Katz boys Corsica……giddy up.

Klima's_Bucket

Bruce McCurdy,

Wait, Are you saying Galileo was right?

Bruce McCurdy

G Money: But at the time, the vested interests and the senior members resisted the ‘new ways’ with all their might. Anything that shakes up the existing order will spark that reaction.

They’ll come around eventually. For example, it only took the Catholic church 359 years to pardon Galileo and admit he had been right all along.

dustrock

LMHF#1: Let’s just say I and others had a decidedly different experience – and aren’t exactly running around with earplugs in.

I much prefer the WG and GMoney2.0 approach myself. Personality wise.

Yeah I’ve never seen you get too agitated here or at HFB. I already knew Dellow’s reputation before I engaged with him, and I was a fellow lawyer, which helped I think, but I simply wouldn’t engage if it wasn’t going well.

kinger_OIL

– It should come as no surprise that Dellow’s 2 year contract wasn’t renewed. After all he was hired a guy who got fired and that guy then got fired himself…He’s too far away from current regime.

– Now if MacT’s contract wasn’t renewed, that would be something

http://www.coppernblue.com/2015/2/1/7959905/there-was-a-bit-of-dislike-for-tyler-eakins-interview-with-tsn-hockey

LMHF#1

G Money:

Hockey is insulated from those dynamics (can you imagine if any real business delivered a premium-priced product as shitty as the Oilers have delivered?), but won’t be forever.

Hockey also has a problem in common with other sports that most other industries have resolved, but not all.

So many of these guys get the jobs because they’re former hockey players. Some of the people who would be the very best at running a hockey team are likely managing a large company, trading stocks or running a farm. Hockey has been terrible at recruiting outside hockey for as long as it has existed. Even the ‘smart guys’ often wouldn’t be among the top 5 in a random classroom. We always have to keep that in perspective when discussing how much confidence to put in these guys.

That’s not a slight. That’s just how it is.

It reminds me of high school. Our football team stunk. As in was utterly horrible. Why? It wasn’t for a lack of athletes or that the school as a whole was bad at football – it was just that everyone in the school played hockey. My grade 12 gym class had at least 6 guys who could have stepped in as 1st string QB but they were playing another sport.

Bruce McCurdy

Ancient Oilers Fan: Damn. Sometimes autocorrect is your worst enema.

Autocorrect can go straight to he’ll.

Drew

LMHF#1: Let’s just say I and others had a decidedly different experience – and aren’t exactly running around with earplugs in.

I much prefer the WG and GMoney2.0 approach myself. Personality wise. I used to give GMoney hell occasionally, which is why i say 2.0, and why I gave him a hat tip today.

Communication skill and style is important. You can have the greatest idea in the history of the world but if you can’t get it out there you’re going to fail.

I agree, I remember thinking that Vic had unbelievable patience, but near the end of his posting days there was the odd challenge to a fistfight as well.
A good conversation needs two parties.

square_wheels

G Money,

I’d consider that Dellow is also a lawyer and is undoubtedly not going to waste his prime years of income earning in his primary craft by being marginalized by this management group. So if anyone thinks he was “fired” I’d hold off assuming that, I strongly suspect he asked for a voice at the table or progression to Capologist or he is leaving.

I have a good buddy that’s worked for the Oilers for 20yrs, they pay terrible for non-hockey Ops roles, that I know as fact.

Drew

G Money: LT asked a similar question on the air.

No question, there are some teams that are visibly all-in on analytics – TO and ARI for example.

I’m positive there are teams that are heavy on analytics but go out of their way to keep that quiet – like in any business, if you feel it gives you a competitive advantage, you’re going to keep quiet about it.I’ve heard tidbits that suggest both CHI and LAK are heavy analytics users, but I think they go out of their way to avoid letting people know about it.

I’m sure those teams are also doing work that is well beyond what we can do in the public sphere with public data.

There are teams I’m certain that are new to analytics but are trying them in a good faith way i.e. they accept it almost certainly has value, but they understand implementing it is a tough task and they’re proceeding methodically.

There are teams that are using analytics on the surface, but are doing it in bad faith i.e. it’s for show, but they aren’t treated with any value.This should be no surprise.

It’s quite informative to read up on the history of e.g. medicine, when modern analytical methods transformed a shit-laden snake oil industry into an evidence-based field, with vast improvements in outcomes as a result.If you tried to suggest they go back to doing things as done a century ago, they’d laugh you out of the room (even if they wanted to, the publicity from the spike in preventable deaths would be catastrophic).

But at the time, the vested interests and the senior members resisted the ‘new ways’ with all their might. Anything that shakes up the existing order will spark that reaction.

And lastly, there will be teams that outwardly treat analytics with contempt. I expect those dinosaurs will slowly die off no matter what.Every business today is having to deal with the reality that you either implement analytics or you die as your competition outpaces you.

Hockey is insulated from those dynamics (can you imagine if any real business delivered a premium-priced product as shitty as the Oilers have delivered?), but won’t be forever.

Great post.

Yes, to the work of analytics in medicine, my aunts brother has worked exclusively in Medicine with a Harvard PhD in mathematics /statistics. Was fascinating stuff whenever I had the chance to interact with him.

G Money

LMHF#1,

Dammit man! I resent the implication that I’m not a dink!

LMHF#1

Ancient Oilers Fan: Damn. Sometimes autocorrect is your worst enema.

Oh hell…fixed.

LMHF#1

Drew:

Yes i admitted Dellow could get crusty, but if you had a reasonable conversation with him i never experienced that reaction.

Let’s just say I and others had a decidedly different experience – and aren’t exactly running around with earplugs in.

I much prefer the WG and GMoney2.0 approach myself. Personality wise. I used to give GMoney hell occasionally, which is why i say 2.0, and why I gave him a hat tip today.

Communication skill and style is important. You can have the greatest idea in the history of the world but if you can’t get it out there you’re going to fail.

G Money

McSorley33: Some teams just pretend to make their owners happy.

LT asked a similar question on the air.

No question, there are some teams that are visibly all-in on analytics – TO and ARI for example.

I’m positive there are teams that are heavy on analytics but go out of their way to keep that quiet – like in any business, if you feel it gives you a competitive advantage, you’re going to keep quiet about it. I’ve heard tidbits that suggest both CHI and LAK are heavy analytics users, but I think they go out of their way to avoid letting people know about it.

I’m sure those teams are also doing work that is well beyond what we can do in the public sphere with public data.

There are teams I’m certain that are new to analytics but are trying them in a good faith way i.e. they accept it almost certainly has value, but they understand implementing it is a tough task and they’re proceeding methodically.

There are teams that are using analytics on the surface, but are doing it in bad faith i.e. it’s for show, but they aren’t treated with any value. This should be no surprise. MTL appears to be one. Sadly, EDM might likely be as well.

It’s quite informative to read up on the history of e.g. medicine, when modern analytical methods transformed a shit-laden snake oil industry into an evidence-based field, with vast improvements in outcomes as a result. If you tried to suggest they go back to doing things as done a century ago, they’d laugh you out of the room (even if they wanted to, the publicity from the spike in preventable deaths would be catastrophic).

But at the time, the vested interests and the senior members resisted the ‘new ways’ with all their might. Anything that shakes up the existing order will spark that reaction.

And lastly, there will be teams that outwardly treat analytics with contempt. I expect those dinosaurs will slowly die off no matter what. Every business today is having to deal with the reality that you either implement analytics or you die as your competition outpaces you.

Hockey is insulated from those dynamics (can you imagine if any real business delivered a premium-priced product as shitty as the Oilers have delivered?), but won’t be forever.

jdhardy

jonrmcleod:
Mark Spector
@SportsnetSpec
Confirmed: #Oilers part ways with analytics man Tyler Dellow. Contract not renewed for 2016-17 season.

The exact wording there is ambiguous as to whether the team didn’t offer an extension or Dellow didn’t take one. Either is plausible. I’d bet on the former, but wouldn’t be surprised at the latter, for any number of reasons.

Drew

Eastern Oil:
Drew,

It was more of his constant barrage of cat pictures that sent me over the edge!

there is that.

Eastern Oil

Drew,

It was more of his constant barrage of cat pictures that sent me over the edge!

G Money

McSorley33: Better to work in a Risk Management position at a Global European Bank……oh wait

Oh snap!

And by ‘snap’, I mean ‘snap the spine of the world economy’.

McSorley33

Radio guy in Winnipeg just mentioned lots of hockey guys come on air and talk about analytics and the future of hockey, etc, etc…….off air they roll their eyes at the analytics stuff.

Some teams just pretend to make their owners happy.

What would be the point of being a part of the analytics departments of Montreal or Edmonton?

Mark Letestu, Korpse, …..sign Mark Fraser.

Better to work in a Risk Management position at a Global European Bank……oh wait

Drew

LMHF#1: No. If this was directed at ignorant media who most don’t appreciate, the reaction wouldn’t be the same. Dellow would often come in hot, and the conversations were with regular people. There was also no civility if you didn’t accept his premises. Most people can just walk out of that discussion.

Actually not no, (when you open a comment with No, it feels like you are coming in hot?)

but maybe in part…

I have been reading Dellow and Vic Ferrari since Hockey Futures days and watched them exhaustively work through the same information over and over and seeing people stick their fingers in their ears and just say no, no, no, over and over.

Did you happen to read Gmoney a couple of days ago say he was tired of trying to share information to people who come and say “i watch the game you are wrong”.

Yes i admitted Dellow could get crusty, but if you had a reasonable conversation with him i never experienced that reaction.

Ancient Oilers Fan

LMHF#1:
WG acquainted himself well as always.

Damn. Sometimes autocorrect is your worst enema.

LMHF#1

Drew:

This is why Dellow would get crusty. After showing data over and over to people who do not want to see things from a variety of perspectives it gets frustrating. Spector and Jamison are the past and i just cannot listen to their crap.

No. If this was directed at ignorant media who most don’t appreciate, the reaction wouldn’t be the same. Dellow would often come in hot, and the conversations were with regular people. There was also no civility if you didn’t accept his premises. Most people can just walk out of that discussion.

Drew

jonrmcleod:
Robin Brownlee
@Robin_Brownlee
If the Edmonton Oilers are looking to fill an analytics position, and I assume they are, they should have a chat with @Woodguy55 .

From having a big problem at the start Brownlee has actually moved quite a bit towards the analytics side from being an old school skeptic. He even uses some of it in his discussions.

Drew

Jethro Tull: Thing about Dellow, whilst almost always having something relevant to say, he often had open disdain for people who either didn’t understand or didn’t subscribe to his opinion.

He is usually correct, but boy, he could be the Spector of analytics at times.

listening to the show (Jamison) after Lowetide where they are talking about how crappy Yak is, again!

Despite info developed by Gmoney etc. saying that in many situations Yak adds values the old style media guy will hear none of it. He has been exposed to this information but will not acknowledge anything except his narrative. My ears bleed.

This is why Dellow would get crusty. After showing data over and over to people who do not want to see things from a variety of perspectives it gets frustrating. Spector and Jamison are the past and i just cannot listen to their crap.

dustrock

Guys I like Dellow too, but the other angle here is that he was hired as a consultant for 2 years and they were satisfied with his performance but didn’t need him on an ongoing basis.

It’s a very nice narrative for his defenders to assume this is OBC, old school, “Grititude” thinking that led to him not being renewed.

But it very easily could have been amicable. Or they were using Dark Horse and they felt they were redundant.

frjohnk

G Money:
Thanks guys!

That was enjoyable, hope I didn’t confuse anyone too badly!

I havnt listened yet, I will later tonight.

My bet is that it was good so great job guys!

jonrmcleod

Robin Brownlee
@Robin_Brownlee
If the Edmonton Oilers are looking to fill an analytics position, and I assume they are, they should have a chat with @Woodguy55 .

mustang

I love the work that Woodguy and Gmoney are doing. The WoodenMoney metric is the best analytic work,to me anyway. Corsi to me doesn’t cut it, keep them to the outside and really corsi doesn’t tell you much. DFF rocks separating the men from the boys.

Centre of attention

G Money:
Thanks guys!

That was enjoyable, hope I didn’t confuse anyone too badly!

You actually did a great job of explaining. Appreciate you sparing your time to share this amazing new idea!

G Money

Thanks guys!

That was enjoyable, hope I didn’t confuse anyone too badly!

Centre of attention

Dan Haight and the analytics firm “Darkhorse Analytics” are still contracted by the Oilers, they were already working with the Oilers when Dellow was hired.

LMHF#1

GMoney – good job on the ‘talk fancy stats without being a dick’-o-meter today. WG acquitted himself well as always.

Dellow will likely be under some sort of non-disclosure, so I’m not sure how much he’ll be sharing with everyone. He’s also always been challenged by said meter.

Jethro Tull

MadocNicely:
Stauffer mentioned yesterday that Spector was on vacation for another week, and so wasn’t there for their usual Tuesday show. Someone in the organization took the time to give the scoop to someone who had open disdain for Dellow. I imagine him gleefully taking out some time to tweet this out while on vacation.

Thing about Dellow, whilst almost always having something relevant to say, he often had open disdain for people who either didn’t understand or didn’t subscribe to his opinion.

He is usually correct, but boy, he could be the Spector of analytics at times.