RE 16-17 MILAN LUCIC: BLOW AT HIGH DOUGH

by Lowetide

Since time eternal, the Edmonton Oilers have had a Lucic jones. I would venture the idea of getting him to our town preceded the Peter Chiarelli hiring—and I am dead serious. Milan Lucic is a damned good hockey player, full stop. The question we need to answer? How long will he be good enough for the McDavid line. (Blow at High Dough)

MILAN LUCIC 2015-16

  • 5×5 points per 60: 2.04
  • 5×4 points per 60: 2.83
  • Corsi For 5×5 %: 59.3 (No. 2 among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp:  toughest among regular forwards (1line opp)
  • Qual Team: best teammates among regular forwards (top line)
  • Corsi Rel: 11.4 (No. 2 among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 124/16.1
  • Boxcars: 81gp, 20-35-55

(All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and BehindtheNet.ca)

L.A. VOLLMAN

lak left wing vollman

RE 16-17: 80GP, 22-39-61 0.763

  1. You like this signing don’t you? Yes. Now, I don’t like the term, but Lucic is a unique player—and I am a fan of unique players.
  2. How much is the deal? Seven years, $42 million.
  3. Ouch! I predicted six times six, feeling the final three years would be at risk in terms of injury or erosion.
  4. Too much, too long! I agree on the length, unsure if $6 million can be considered too much. Suspect that was the going rate for this player—but the length of the deal is an issue. I think we can safely say years four through seven are going to carry some hard times.
  5. Your RE is farce. Clearly you’re drunk to the point of incoherence. I gave Lucic a little push, but am fairly confident he will play with McDavid. That is going to push the offense some.
  6. No, I mean he is going to score 35 goals. Well, no. Lucic has a career high of 30, so projecting him at 35 is unreasonable.
  7. When he scores 35 goals, you will see. That isn’t the point of RE. The point is to find a reasonable line in the sand. Now, he is playing with McDavid but this is not a good offensive team—not by a long shot.
  8. What will you say when he scores 35 goals? I will say he crashed through reasonable, and I will congratulate him on his 25 percent shooting percentage.
  9. McDavid changes everything! I agree, but we have already posted the McDavid numbers. Lucic will be a complementary player on his line and that will certainly help his numbers. I think Eberle scores more on the power play but Lucic is a dandy at even strength.
  10. What is the breakdown in points for Lucic? I have him posting 10 power-play points (up from eight one year ago) and 51 at even strength (47 one year ago).
  11. You are lowballing Lucic and you lowballed Eberle! I did nick Eberle a little because of uncertainty (McDavid line), but Lucic gets a full ride with 97 on this RE. He is going from a team that scored 233 goals to one that scored 199 goals. The two teams were closer to even at 5×5 (140 LAK to 133 EDM).
  12. Face it Lucic came here to ride shotgun for McDavid. Why do people think this is a bad thing? Lucic is a good NHL player, top line winger. Can you show evidence that he is not capable? Just because I am not projecting 35 goals doesn’t mean I dislike him.
  13. Benoit Pouliot would have sufficed! Agree completely. One of the things I spent a lot of time on for the RE was trying to suss out Pouliot’s handling. I used all of the LW McDavid minutes on Lucic—because my suspicion is Pouliot will be on the 2line with Nuge.
  14. How does McDavid feel about Lucic? CM: “It kind of gives us that swagger, that meanness that we have been looking for. We tried to do that a little bit last year in adding a couple bigger bodies and it definitely helped, but now you have the addition of Lucic and those guys we added before. We definitely have that mean streak that other teams won’t want to be pushing us around.” Source
  15. Is Lucic a good possession player? Oh yes, sure is. There is a bit of a zoom going on—ML plays with outstanding players—but he is no shy violet. Lucic might be the last bat on the line, but he can use the lumber.
  16. Okay. I need the truth. What is the gap between Lucic and Hall? I am not qualified to answer that question.
  17. Take a guess. I don’t want to, it is a trap.
  18. No, come on. I just want to know, curious is all. I won’t overreact, honest. I would say Lucic is maybe 75 percent of Hall, although the comparison is difficult. Different player, but I will say he is capable of delivering enough to be considered in that range.
  19. I knew it!!! Traitor! Oh dear.
  20. You never liked Hall!! Ridiculous.
  21. Larsson lover!!!! Do you hear yourself?
  22. You prick! I did not like the trade, I believe it was telegraphed and showed a lack of patience. It does improve the overall depth and Larsson is an interesting player. We are going to need a year to see him, which is different than saying Edmonton could still win the trade—I do not believe that to be true.
  23. You are kind of all over the place in this RE. Me?!!! Jesus, Mary and Joseph you have ranged from ‘Lucic is going to score 35 goals’ to ´he is JFJ No. 2!!’ in this conversation.
  24. You really see him getting 40 assists? I think he could get close, certainly closer than he will to 30 goals. That is my bet, based on his own past. McDavid can change things, and I have given Lucic higher numbers. I don’t think Lucic will push toward 97’s point totals, but he is going to be in on a lot of goals. He is a very good passer.
  25. Why this song? My understanding of the song (it is a fantastic lyric) is that you should never get ahead of yourself and start believing your own b.s.—especially before anything is accomplished. It is also about a big event, a major moment in time that brings the community together, and I think the Lucic signing qualifies.
  26. You seem conflicted about this summer. The idea of this blog is to be reasonable, to find the middle, and then digest it. There is no middle in this scenario and Lucic—who was not involved in the trade—may well be the lightning rod. It is difficult to say the price of the Hall trade—some believe it will cost a distant Stanley—and it is difficult to hold Larsson (or Lucic) up as a comparable.
  27. What do you want to say? I can’t lie to those who want to feel better about the Hall-Larsson deal, it was a major loss and a embedded-in-your-brain-memorable trade—you won’t remember this era without recalling it. I also cannot deny the appeal of Milan Lucic to this team. So, we are just going to have to get along with our conflicts and find a way to get past this summer—an extremely difficult task.
  28. And if we can’t? Well, the blog has no plans to sail on, you have to make your own decision. And we are going to have to deal with Taylor Hall in many of these REs, because that becomes a central part of the story moving forward—today, and five years from today. The Oilers are likely to win more games this season, but did they cost themselves a Stanley in 2019 because of it? The story is such a distant bell that it becomes almost unimportant to the day-to-day—and yet that is in fact the big story. Now and forever.

 

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Woodguy

bendelson: Ha!I was going to mention that show as well.
Lenny had the crowd in the palm on his hand all night long.
Let Love Rule Tour.Absolutely fantastic show.

yeah.

Without resorting to hyperbole, I’ve been to hundreds (over 100 at least) live shows.

Lenny at The Dinwoodie is #1 with a bullet.

bendelson

Woodguy: My favorite Dinwoodie show actually wasn’t The Hip.

I saw Lenny Kravitz there (again, he was new-ish) and didn’t know who he was.

Blew the roof off the joint and his monster sax player was electric.

I think Bendleson was at that show too.

Ha! I was going to mention that show as well.
Lenny had the crowd in the palm on his hand all night long.
Let Love Rule Tour. Absolutely fantastic show.

Woodguy

VanIsleOil:
bendelson: Great song choice LT.First time I heard it was actually live at the Dinwoodie. “These guys are pretty fucking good” I recall noting at the time… I’m sure looking forward to next Thursday evening.Good times.

Woodguy:You were at that show as well were you not?

Yup.

The Hip were new and touring Up to Here and were brand new to Western Canada.

We were certainly in the right place at the right time for that one

——————————————-

Ahh memories from yesteryear… I was also at Dinwoodie that night to see the Hip play. The energy in the room was absolutely electric. Was great to see these Canadian legends when they were on the cusp of something big.Going to see them one last time tonight in Victoria…

Dinwoodie was a great room back then, remember seeing Iggy Pop at his aggressive best until he fell through the floor on a very poorly built side stage. He was pissed right off and the show was over. Somehow I left still satisfied with the show.

My favorite Dinwoodie show actually wasn’t The Hip.

I saw Lenny Kravitz there (again, he was new-ish) and didn’t know who he was.

Blew the roof off the joint and his monster sax player was electric.

I think Bendleson was at that show too.

VanIsleOil

bendelson:
Great song choice LT.First time I heard it was actually live at the Dinwoodie.
“These guys are pretty fucking good” I recall noting at the time…
I’m sure looking forward to next Thursday evening.Good times.

Woodguy:You were at that show as well were you not?

Yup.

The Hip were new and touring Up to Here and were brand new to Western Canada.

We were certainly in the right place at the right time for that one

——————————————-

Ahh memories from yesteryear… I was also at Dinwoodie that night to see the Hip play. The energy in the room was absolutely electric. Was great to see these Canadian legends when they were on the cusp of something big.Going to see them one last time tonight in Victoria…

Dinwoodie was a great room back then, remember seeing Iggy Pop at his aggressive best until he fell through the floor on a very poorly built side stage. He was pissed right off and the show was over. Somehow I still left satisfied.

russ99

I think this is my favorite RE post of all time.

Props, LT!

Woodguy

bendelson: My understanding is that they are still in the testing phase, behind schedule with confidence waning…
But your right, it really shouldn’t be that difficult.

Seeing as the original dead line was June 30 and July 31st is within view I would characterize this as SOP for the NHL.

A league run out of a garage would be better organized

Chachi

theres oil in virginia:
Chachi,

He just wants to see a motorcycle, a shark and a kiddie pool make their appearance.

Don’t we all!

rickithebear

Player production last 2 seasons:

Eberle: RW
150gm played
14gm missed
49G 61A 110P
.299 GPG; .372 APG; .671 PPG
Avg 25g 31A 56p -2

Lucic: LW
162gm played
2 gm missed
38G 61A 99P
.232GPG; .372 APG; .604 PPG
expected
19G 31A 50P

RNH: C
131gm played
33gm missed
36G 54A 90P
.220 GPG; .329 APG; .549 PPG
Avg 18G 27A 45P -12

Draisatl C
109gm played
10gm missed
21G 39A 60P
.176 GPG; .328 APG; .504 PPG
Avg 18G 27A 45P -4

Pouliot: LW
113gm played
51gm missed
33g 37A 70P
.201 GPG; .226 APG; .427 PPG
expected
17g 19A 36p -3

Maroon LW
143gm played
21gm missed
21G 40A 61P
.128 GPG; .244 APG; .372 PPG
Avg 11G 20 A 31P -1

Yakupov: RW
141gm played
23gm missed
22G 34A 56P -41
.134 GPG; .207 APG; .341 PPG
Avg 11G 17A 28P -21

So JP’s not making this team on RW?

Hall:
135gm played
29 gm missed
40G 63A 103P
.244 GPG; .374 APG; .628 PPG
Avg 20G 32A 52P

Woodguy

bendelson:
Great song choice LT.First time I heard it was actually live at the Dinwoodie.
“These guys are pretty fucking good” I recall noting at the time…
I’m sure looking forward to next Thursday evening.Good times.

Woodguy:You were at that show as well were you not?

Yup.

The Hip were new and touring Up to Here and were brand new to Western Canada.

We were certainly in the right place at the right time for that one.

StixMalone

Wonder what the conversation between Nurse and Looch is gonna be. ” Hey kid that fight we had was good but I let up on you. Good effort though!…it’s gonna be a fun season and I can’t wait! Of course I say this every year but this year is gonna be different! Isn’t it?

bendelson

Ca$h-McMoney!:
bendelson,

Why does it take so long to make Goalie equipment?You’d figure they could accommodate the 200 or so NHL/AHL/ECHL goalies in a week between the various brands.

My understanding is that they are still in the testing phase, behind schedule with confidence waning…
But your right, it really shouldn’t be that difficult.

Ca$h-McMoney!

bendelson,

Why does it take so long to make Goalie equipment? You’d figure they could accommodate the 200 or so NHL/AHL/ECHL goalies in a week between the various brands.

bendelson

Best of luck to Brossiot and other ‘third’ string goalies who
most likely won’t get their new equipment before training camp.

This is a gong show in the making…

I don’t know if Oilers management sets their own priority list for the new goaler equipment but if they do… It will be a HUGE tell if Laurent gets priority ahead of Gustavsson.

JD_Wry

The Oilers’ No. 1 goalie believes trimming the pads was a better option than increasing net size, but he wants his new equipment yesterday.

“As soon as possible. I’m already back on the ice. The further it goes with me using my old equipment, the more comfortable I’m going to keep getting with that. So the quicker they can get that to us, the more confident guys will be going into the season with it. I think it’s only fair to give us a month or so with it. Especially the guys who are playing the World Cup—they’re going to need it a month or so ahead of time.”

With twins on the way this fall, Talbot is going to need time adjusting to a lot of things.

theres oil in virginia

Chachi,

He just wants to see a motorcycle, a shark and a kiddie pool make their appearance.

JOHNNY OPERATOR76

Overpaying for good players is better than overpaying for bad players. Coughikita,

Water Fire

Kiltymcbagpipes: @Bob_Stauffer

“Jordan Eberle on @OilersNow today says he has hired a shooting coach and is focusing on improving his one-timer”.

Good for him. Could have had at least 5-10 more goals last year if it weren’t for his inability to one-time the puck.

Looks like Chiarelli and McLellan are right about players having comp and being pushed. Pulji has a good slap slot and can one time. Not many Oiler forwards, or D even use slappers which have a much better chance to score unless they are in close. Ovechkin isn’t getting all those top of circle PP goals with wristers.

Truth

Kiltymcbagpipes: @Bob_Stauffer

“Jordan Eberle on @OilersNow today says he has hired a shooting coach and is focusing on improving his one-timer”.

If this in any way relates to me getting golf lessons and it’s impact on my game (it doesn’t), I recommend Eberle drop his shooting coach immediately.

Took me 2 weeks to get rid of the yips after that.

Oilspill

Or his can someone else dig the puck out out of the corner coach.

Pouzar: Where is his back checking coach?

Chachi

dustrock: Mandatory “I’m glad Eberle cares about something.”:p

More of a shot at the good folks getting angry about discussions of marginal improvement in the Eberle RE. They must think Eberle is positively silly to think he should strive to improve his game. I bet Pouzar that Eberle would not score more than 30 goals this season and based it on the fact that he does not get enough shots on net to get past 30. My concerns about this were clucked at and called silly by people who thought any benign criticism of Eberle’s game was unwarranted and that worrying about marginal improvement was silly. It looks like Eberle recognizes that it is a problem and wants to do something about it. I just wonder why it took him so long.

Oilspill

I love rough hockey, but I’m not sure what response was warranted. He got tangled up and fell with two guys falling as well. No response was the right response.

leadfarmer:
When MacDavid broke his collar bone with very little response from the teammates, you knew at that moment in time that there is going to be a shakeup coming.

--hudson--

Yesterday in the Dellow article there was some mention of the Oilers analytics team. This Staples article from 2012 spells out the structure the Oilers had under Lowe.
http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/oilers-start-up-analytics-group-to-delve-into-moneypuck-issues

That year Oilers sent Rick Olcyzk (no longer with Oilers) and Nick Wilson (still with Oilers but no longer head of analytics according to his linked in account) to the Sloan conference.

Here’s a couple of interesting quotes:
– “But Chiarelli, leader of the Stanley Cup-winning Boston Bruins, was far less dismissive of advanced stats, saying his team tracks a number of stats, such as an advanced scoring chance metrics for every player in the league. “You have to be careful how you use it, but it’s another piece of information.”

More than half of NHL teams do analytics work, Chiarelli said, with four or five teams into it in a big way. The Bruins don’t just rely on NHL stats, but track many stats of their own, though Chiarelli wouldn’t say what they are. “I’m not telling you. We all have our own stats that we do and we don’t like to disclose too much because other teams might try and copy.”

– “The Oilers analytics team includes Cult of Hockey blogger Bruce McCurdy, University of Alberta professors Corey Wentzell, Bruce Matichuk and Randy Goebel and Daniel Haight of Darkhorse Analytics.”

– “Wilson says the group will pay attention to hockey discussions on the Oilogosphere, the hockey blogs on the Oilers which are often full of advanced stats analysis, some of it highly critical of the team.”

So the Oilers still employ Darkhorse (have since 2005), Nick Wilson (in a different role), Sean Draper, and possibly Bruce McCurdy. The Oilers have been reading the blogs for some time and it’s safe to say the Oilers are still big into analytics.

The Oilers hired Tyler when other NHL teams were starting to circle around him. Imagine he is an even hotter commodity now after his experience learning to work with the Eakins coaching staff and Chiarelli’s advanced stats. Hope he locks up another NHL job this summer.

dustrock

Chachi: Looks like Eberle cares about marginally improving his offensive production. Good for him. I hope it works.

Mandatory “I’m glad Eberle cares about something.” :p

Kiltymcbagpipes

Pouzar: Where is his back checking coach?

See : Milan Lucic

Chachi

Pouzar: Where is his back checking coach?

Looks like Eberle cares about marginally improving his offensive production. Good for him. I hope it works.

frjohnk

Kiltymcbagpipes: @Bob_Stauffer

“Jordan Eberle on @OilersNow today says he has hired a shooting coach and is focusing on improving his one-timer”.

Good for him. Could have had at least 5-10 more goals last year if it weren’t for his inability to one-time the puck.

EBERLE is usually near the top of the list when looking at guys who get into the slot and take shots.

Having a better one timer AND playing a full year with McDavid, EBERLE could have a career year.

Pouzar

Kiltymcbagpipes: @Bob_Stauffer

“Jordan Eberle on @OilersNow today says he has hired a shooting coach and is focusing on improving his one-timer”.

Good for him. Could have had at least 5-10 more goals last year if it weren’t for his inability to one-time the puck.

Where is his back checking coach?

Kiltymcbagpipes

Centre of attention:
Sounds like Eberle has hired a shooting coach in an effort to improve his one-timer.

If he can get even a half second faster on his release, he will score 35 goals easily.

@Bob_Stauffer

“Jordan Eberle on @OilersNow today says he has hired a shooting coach and is focusing on improving his one-timer”.

Good for him. Could have had at least 5-10 more goals last year if it weren’t for his inability to one-time the puck.

jimmers2

Centre of attention,

COA,

Where does this story come from? Thanks in advance if you have a link.

lynn

leadfarmer: A STANLEY!!.I’m just hoping we make the playoffs by then.

It is “reassuring” to know the future: The Cup can’t be won without Hall. How did the Oilers ever win a Cup without Gretzky?

Centre of attention

Sounds like Eberle has hired a shooting coach in an effort to improve his one-timer.

If he can get even a half second faster on his release, he will score 35 goals easily.

SkatinginSand

godot10,

you are renewing my hope!

JD_Wry

hunter1909: You Know You’re an Adult When: Getting a headache is okay – because it means you had a good time!

That’s really what I was expecting you to say.

hunter1909

Lucic ain’t chopped liver.

Losing Hall seems tragic: Maybe they keep Yakupov around to balance things.

Will this Katz led abomination will EVER win jack squat?

You Know You’re an Adult When: Getting a headache is okay – because you get to take Alka Seltzer.

Younger Oil

Agreed on the note that Holland would be a hell of a waiver claim, even if we can’t get him signed to reasonable money, it’s worth a shot.

Creates more competition, possibly makes the option of Draisaitl on the RW and Puljujarvi in the AHL realistic.

JD_Wry

DRFNsuperstar: Versteeg signing with Bern in the Swiss league is a strange decision.

They’re treated like rock stars, paid well, and get to live in Switzerland. And their season starts fairly soon, so the decision had to be made.

DRFNsuperstar

Versteeg signing with Bern in the Swiss league is a strange decision. It would have been nice for him to sign and give Yak competition at 2RW. So the Oilers are one 2RW/3C (depending on the plans for Leon) and a PP specialist D away from perfect balance (aside from goaltending but that bed has been made and now it’s time to sleep in it)

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

kinger_OIL,

I”m with you here. The Hall trade wasn’t good but no matter how I slice and dice it I know deep down the Oilers are a better, more balanced team now than on June 28. As the season wore on I watched quite a few Kings games, Gord they play boring hockey at times but Lucic is a very effective player and he absolutely knows what he is good at and what he isn’t. That type of awareness has been sorely lacking on the Oilers and hopefully it will rub off on a couple of guys as the season begins.

Ducey,

This is an interesting idea. I lived with a die hard leafs fan for the last few years and really liked the snippets I saw of Holland, buddy had good things to say about him as well. Only problem is the the Lefty shot, we have a lot of those and a righty would be preferable but I like the player and like the production if he comes at a reasonable cost.

godot10

SkatinginSand:
http://www.tsn.ca/radio/montreal-690/yost-analytics-and-old-school-management-1.530909

Interesting listen. Yost’s take, the Oilers and Montreal are two teams that talk analytics but it doesn’t drive any decisions.

I am glad I am not the only one who finds it silly to be bemoaning the potential loss of a 2019 cup for a team that was 29th in 2016. Einstein’s definition of insanity and all that.

If the Oilers sign Gryba, you will know that Chiarelli struck out on his attempts for a right shooting powerplay running defenceman.

Fayne, Pouliot, and Talbot are clearly advanced stats decisions. The pursuit of Cory Schneider was an advanced stat pursuit.

Fayne demonstrated that the Oilers weren’t into WOWY yet.

I think Larsson is an advanced stat decision. Better (by stats), younger, and cheaper than Demers.

vinotintazo

Ducey,

if we’re gonna spend a roster spot on a waiver claim, I’d rather it be on a RHD.

we already have an expensive 4rth line Hendo-Letestu-Kassian

Ducey

Peter Holland has apparently been placed on waivers by TOR. He has an arbitration hearing and the thought is they are using it for leverage.

EDM should claim him. He was 15th overall by ANA in 2009. Put up nice numbers in the OHL and AHL. Has never really got a shot in a top 6 role anywhere. Had one of the smallest % of OZ starts last year in TOR among forwards and put up ok CF%. Scored 27 pts in 65 games. Yak had 23 in 60.

He is a LH C who can play all over and has decent size.

EDM may even be able to claim and trade, as they are 2nd in the waiver claim line.

He could compete with Letestu and Hendricks for 4th line minutes or maybe move to 3C if they want to bump Leon to the wing. Would be an upgrade on Lander as 13th F at a minimum.

stevezie

leadfarmer,

This is a good counter.

HT Joe

Pouzar:
I can’t wait for the comments on this board after Lucic incurs his first “questionable” infraction on some poor sap. Gonna be fun reading.

Lucic is a large scary man, wearing an orange and blue jersey.

I’m hoping he gets the nickname “Orange Crush”… maybe he gets a small endorsement with the Dr. Pepper company if it sticks.
(certainly better than the nickname “Blue Crush”, though that one is much funnier)

LMHF#1

Pouzar:
I can’t wait for the comments on this board after Lucic incurs his first “questionable” infraction on some poor sap. Gonna be fun reading.

Depends.

If he’s rearranged Kesler’s face, drinks are on me.

Richard S.S.

Lucic can be an Oiler as long as he wants to be, one year contracts after this one ends for as long as he can still play. McDavid needs someone who send a message when brain-limited opponents take liberties. Still too many idiots playing who’s only joy is to injure other Players. What Lucic needs to do, Hall could not.

Don’t worry about Jesse Puljujarvi. At a reported 6’4″ 208 and a superb skater, he can go after and get the puck without messing his uniform. Any question just read his scouting reports, remember here: https://lowetide.ca/2016/07/13/oiler-sign-puljujarvi/

leadfarmer

When MacDavid broke his collar bone with very little response from the teammates, you knew at that moment in time that there is going to be a shakeup coming.

bendelson

Great song choice LT. First time I heard it was actually live at the Dinwoodie.
“These guys are pretty fucking good” I recall noting at the time…
I’m sure looking forward to next Thursday evening. Good times.

Woodguy: You were at that show as well were you not?

Pouzar

I can’t wait for the comments on this board after Lucic incurs his first “questionable” infraction on some poor sap. Gonna be fun reading.

Bag of Pucks

HT Joe: Well, if it comes to drawing a line in the sand regarding protecting McDavid, I’m fine if both Kassian and Lucic get suspensions…

The good thing about a player like Lucic is the rep is established. He doesn’t have to fight that often or get a suspension to be an effective deterrent. The players know what to expect if you drop the gloves against him: a face tatoo.

Connor should have a lot more skating room this season : )

There may be the odd rook coming in looking to make a name for himself, but I suspect Kassian will be the first deterrent over the boards. He’s the cruise missile. Lucic is the ICBM.

Dee Dee

“I can tell you from an opponent’s standpoint, you were never scared or intimidated heading into a game against the Oilers, that is going to change this winter.”
Milan Lucic, July 1 2016