YOU BETTER, YOU BET

As the thunder rolls across our summer, this Oilers roster looks decidedly unfinished. Now, I say that every year, but this year is different—the team traded Hall in search of balance—and I do think changes are coming. Why? If Peter Chiarelli can pull this team up and into a playoff race—and there are reasons to believe the Oilers would have improved without the deal—the anger will subside among a portion of the fanbase.

THE SURE THINGS

certain oilers july 25

  • Most of the roster is set, as shown here. However, there are some major items that can be improved—and for not much money. The team’s inability to sign Kris Versteeg can be seen as an endorsement of Nail Yakupov, but I will believe it when I see it. I suspect it is more likely an endorsement of Jesse Puljujarvi.
  • The defense remains unbalanced, but the Adam Larsson addition really makes the room look better. Price aside, I have to say things look better here—I actually think the goaltending might be a bigger issue.
  • I see a need for another goalie, a RH defender who can play top 4D and hammer the point on the power play, plus a Pisani. Work to do.

UNCERTAIN OILERS

uncertain oilers july 25

  • Matt Hendricks makes the team, but I have to say there is a speed issue on the wings if Patrick Maroon, Zack Kassian and Hendricks represent 38 percent of the roster wingers every night. That is not a fast train and I believe the Oilers are going to be exposed on the bottom two lines.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi and Drake Caggiula are going to get the fan base rocking at the rookie camp. How long can one or both sustain the momentum? Both of them boast speed as a big part of their respective games.
  • Jordan Oesterle’s wheels may get him hired.
  • I don’t know about this goaltending. I think we will see an addition by Christmas.

THE DISTANT BELLS

oilers distant bells july 25

  • If I had to pick one player on this list who could make the Oilers opening night roster? Patrick Russell. Why? Edmonton has some uncertainty at that position, and Russell is an older prospect. Long, long shot, but everyone on this list shares that reality.

DEFENSEMEN, RIGHTORIUM

  1. Tyson Barrie, Colorado Avalanche. Unlikely now, but there is still a chance.
  2. Jacob Trouba, Winnipeg Jets. If he is in play, Oilers should be in there.
  3. Ryan Murphy, Carolina Hurricanes. Some chaos, but good speed and puck-moving ability.
  4. Brandon Montour, Anaheim Ducks. This could be a special player.
  5. Ryan Pulock, New York Islanders. Big shot from the point has high value. Very young.
  6. Jakub Nakladal, Calgary Flames. Intriguing player.
  7. Ryan Sproul, Detroit Red Wings. Puck-moving defender in the AHL.
  8. Jordan Schmaultz, St. Louis Blues. Puck-moving prospect.
  9. Ville Pokka, Chicago Blackhawks. Young defender in the Chicago system.
  10. James Wisniewski, Carolina Hurricanes. If healthy, depending on price, interesting name.
  11. Dan Boyle, New York Rangers. Retiring, but he is the player they are looking for—early, not late in his career.
  12. Dennis Wideman, Calgary Flames. A year removed from a fantastic offensive season.
  • Chiarelli to Bob Stauffer: “Notwithstanding the cries of protest for a power play specialist, I’d be very satisfied with where we sit today. We’re getting Oscar Klefbom back. He’s a helluva defenceman. It’s going to take him some time to get him up and running. He missed a lot of games last year. We’ve brought in Adam Larsson, a high pedigree player, although not as well known to this community as in other hockey circles. He’s a right shot, that’s important in the righty/lefty scheme of things. He can play an offensive role. No, he’s not an offensive specialist. He can play on a power play. No, he’s not a power play specialist. So all things being equal, if we were to start today with our ‘D’ I’d be quite happy. I’d be very happy. Yes, I’d like to try to get someone that can compliment a power play and push the puck up to the forwards. That’s no secret. We will continue to look at. There’s still a couple that are out there. They are hard to find.Source

I mostly agree, and the team could employ a forward as the hammer from the point, perhaps with Sekera or Klefbom (or Larsson) as the one defender on the 1PP. There are ways around this, and if Barrie and the Avalanche settle on a two-year deal, the possibility of this happening increases.

THE CHIARELLI LIST

  1. Top-pairing RHD (Two-way skills—Adam Larsson)
  2. Find a replacement for Taylor Hall (Milan Lucic)
  3. Second-pairing RHD (Offensive defenseman)
  4. Acquire RHC with some skill
  5. Backup goalie (Jonas Gustavsson)

This is not the list of solutions any of us believed we would see by August 1, and it is absolutely a job unfinished. The biggest surprise for me? Two things: The astronomical cost of Larsson (PC is throwing around hard earned assets like a high roller in Vegas) and the lack of completeness to this list. Can you reasonably suggest Peter Chiarelli has done more to help this team than the Flames have done? If this roster doesn’t receive more help, it is very difficult to see a path past many Pacific teams, including Calgary.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, Cult of Hockey. Is Peter Chiarelli planning for another year of failure?
  • Andrew Stoeten, Jays Nation. Toronto makes a curious trade.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. CFL Week 6 on the way (and power rankings), Jays and the number of NHL free agents still out there.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

156 Responses to "YOU BETTER, YOU BET"

  1. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    I just read that Pulock is not expansion protected, I had assumed he was. I wonder if that impacts his acquisition cost?

    The Wis, Nakladal, Pulock, are all good options. The top three mentioned obviously are too, but at this point I’m not interested in giving up any more prime assets. I’m also not interested in selling next year’s 1st because, lets face it, it’s probably safe to assume it’s #4 or #5 until proven otherwise.

  2. OilClog says:

    I’d take Hendricks over Letestu at all times.

    Plays C well enough for the forth, or atleast equal to if not greater then what Letestu offers.

    He didn’t seem too slow crushing Ekblad

    Give Hendricks his rest and recovery days, but he actually brings some pop to his game, no reason to wash him out of the line up just because he’s been kinda dragged on since day 1 on the Al Gore.

  3. TheOtherJohn says:

    Is that what Chiarelli said last year as we headed to camp?

    Trade Reinhart for Pulock

  4. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT!

    Of the players on your 17-man “roster”

    – These are the bona-fides, that we know +/- what they are (9 players):

    Lucic, Pou, Ebs, McD (upper end unknown), Sek, RNH, Fayne, Letetsu, Talbot

    – These are the players that we “hope” can play at a level shown, but can’t rely on yet (6 players):

    Kassian, Maroon, Drai, Klef, Davidson: (+ Larsson, because new team, new role)

    – These are the players that we “hope” can develop into who we hope (2 players):

    Yak, Nurse

    – As currently constructed, in order for this to be a playoff team, virtually all 8 of Larsson, Kassian, Maroon, Drai, Klef, Davey, Yak, Nurse: we have to hope they perform at a level they haven’t done consistently yet, and/or develop into who we hope they can be.

    – It could happen, everything could fall into place, but we need a few more bona-fides to feel better, between now and trade-deadline.

  5. John Chambers says:

    As much as Puljujarvi can fill a hole at RW, the learning curve will be so steep one wonders whether it would be worth it to waste a year of his ELC rather than have him spend an additional season developing.

    Consider:
    In ’11-’12 RNH was having a Calder-worthy season until an injury kept him out of a third of the season. Had the Oilers sent him back to Junior his first taste of pro hockey would’ve been the AHL. By the time the lockout ended half his ELC had been used up and the Oilers weren’t competitive anyway.

    Leon Draisaitl was the beneficiary of Two Centres and Mud, stepping into a 2C role as a raw rookie upon being drafted. He stagnated as a pro (despite being physically more mature than Nuge), again wasting a year of his ELC.

    Darnell Nurse had done everything he could in Junior and at the WJC, and was pressed into service at a level above his development for a good chunk of last season. Playing 20 more games in BAK and being saddled with a 3rd pairing assignment would’ve been a better development path for the young Blue.

    Puljujarvi is a phenomenal talent, but I doubt he offers the Oilers much more than a Radim Vrbata can, at least for the coming season. His presence in the lineup this season will not help the team turn north. If they’re already planning a spot for him on the NHL team for the fall it will seem like a poor idea in hindsight, as it was for every Oilers high draft pick save for Hall and McDavid.

  6. Jordan says:

    What if Yakupov is the Hammer on the PP?

  7. HT Joe says:

    LOWETIDE SAID: “If Peter Chiarelli can pull this team up and into a playoff race—and there are reasons to believe the Oilers would have improved without the deal—the anger will subside among a portion of the fanbase.”

    That’s the issue, but for me, if the Oilers are in a race to get into the playoffs and fall short, I’ll still be upset about the Hall trade. And if the Oilers make the playoffs but get wiped out in 4 games, I’ll be marginally less upset, but still upset about the Hall trade.

    Hall was a unique talent, and was one of only 2 players who was worth the cost of admission on his own… and now he’s been replaced by (from what I understand) a competent but unflashy defenseman. Even if Larsson is as good as advertised, he will never be entertaining enough to be singlehandedly worth the cost of admission.

    This season has to be about winning, because without Taylor Hall, I’ve got zero interest in moral victories.

  8. Skeeziks says:

    I have said it numerous times before and I am happy to see that others also see that speed is lacking in the Oilers projected line up. We certainly have a heavier team with some of the additions over the past year. What we need to ensure is that we have the speed to exert pressure on opposing defenses. This includes both the offensive attack and the area of puck retrieval. Until this is corrected the Oilers may well struggle to achieve relevance.

  9. Ducey says:

    Seems to me that something has to give in the RHD department with FLA.

    They have Ekblad, Demers, Pysyk and Petrovic on the right. None can be waived.

    On LHD they Yandle, Kindl and Matheson. They could send down Matheson, but you have to figure they would be keen on him.

  10. Ducey says:

    Jordan:
    What if Yakupov is the Hammer on the PP?

    They will be replacing a lot of glass behind the net in the new arena, and they will lead the planet in SH goals against.

  11. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Jordan:
    What if Yakupov is the Hammer on the PP?

    Then Milan Lucic better wear a bird cage to protect his teeth while playing net front.

  12. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Ducey: They will be replacing a lot of glass behind the net in the new arena, and they will lead the planet in SH goals against.

    Oh you beat me too that one.

  13. kinger_OIL says:

    John Chambers,
    – JC says: “Puljujarvi is a phenomenal talent, but I doubt he offers the Oilers much more than a Radim Vrbata can, at least for the coming season”

    – I agree: I’m hard pressed to see how Sleppy doesn’t offer the Oilers more than pool-party now as another example: (bigger, older, North-America experience, not recovering from surgery, doesn’t have to be top-6 in order to be effective or protected, better NHLE)

  14. digger50 says:

    ” If Peter Chiarelli can pull this team up and into a playoff race—and there are reasons to believe the Oilers would have improved without the deal—the anger will subside among a portion of the fanbase”

    Let me check. Yup, still angry.

    Great post this AM, lots to think about.

    My measurement has the paper roster almost even to last year. Last year had a lot unfulfilled promise, injuries a big part of that. This year has even larger promise.

    This year we also add a different flavor to the team and that looks to be a more chippy, in your face, don’t take any crap game and I think many players are looking forward to this. With this in mind It assures Hendricks of his spot, and increases the chances of Iro, Sleppy, and Caggulia. Rienhart too once he figures out this flavor PC is looking for.

    On that note LT, Gryba is not on your list but he may be on the roster come September.

  15. Melman says:

    Not disagreeing, but team speed has been a myth for a while thanks largely due to Hall making everyone think they were a fast group. They used to be too small and slow. Now they are just slow (97 aside). JP will help when he’s ready.

    The Chiarelli List is not feasible in one summer. Fixing it now will cause new holes. Unfortunately 1 more year of luck and patience is necessary. The old boys club done messed it up good.

  16. DRFNsuperstar says:

    So to get another puck moving point producing top 4 D (let’s call him Barrie) Pete would need to give up an expansion eligible asset they cannot afford to give up (Eberle?) plus an expansion exempt asset (2017 1st) and then have to protect Barrie in the draft causing him to lose one of Reinhart or Davidson. I really think the #6/7 D will be a Vet trying to stay in the game (Zidlicky) or a reclamation project (Rundblad).

    If a playoff birth is possible trade that 2017 1st for Burns at the deadline and then sign him after expansion draft (Mcdavid discount of course).

    How the shit didn’t Pete get Zacha in the NJ deal? Dougie Hamilton was gotten for peanuts compared to Larsson.

  17. GCW_69 says:

    I am not sure maroon plays on the third line. The league is a copy cat league, so I could see:

    Lucic – McDavid – JP/Yak

    Maroon – Nuge – Eberle

    Pouliot – Leon – JP/Yak

    Hendricks – Letestu – Kassian

    That gives Maroon a little more protection, and gives Leon more protection.

    I can’t believe that they haven’t and appear unlikely to sign at least one veteran right winger to give Leon some additional cover.

  18. Gordie Wayne says:

    Jordan,

    I have always wondered if it would be a possibility to see Yak on the point on the PP

    I would love to see it for a 5 game stretch or so to see how that would pan out.

  19. Water Fire says:

    I was under the impression that Kassian wasn’t slow, it’s part of his appeal as a bigger player with decent hands. Fitness may have been a problem last year.

  20. Centre of attention says:

    Water Fire:
    I was under the impression that Kassian wasn’t slow, it’s part of his appeal as a bigger player with decent hands. Fitness may have been a problem last year.

    Kassian can really skate for a big man, the problem was his conditioning the last few years has not been where it needs to be.

    Kassian can be part of the answer to the speed issue in the bottom 6. For what its worth, I like Kassian more as a third liner than a second liner, but I have no problem with him stepping up in a pinch.

    Glad to see he slimmed down, that is a step forwards for sure. Now lets see if he can maintain it.

  21. Ribs says:

    I don’t know about this goaltending. I think we will see an addition by Christmas.

    What’s Bryzgalov up to these days, anyway…

    So all things being equal, if we were to start today with our ‘D’ I’d be quite happy. I’d be very happy.

    Ah, the annual season’s death knell proclamation from the GM. *sigh*

    So many signs of concern with this roster. We’re left hoping that everything breaks right, again (it never does).

    Maroon, Kassian, & Yakupov are all not forwards I would count on having perform well for an entire season. Did we hear anything about surgery for Pouliot? Does he come back 100% healthy?

    Is RNH broken?

    We’ve added the bruisers, but nothing added to help kill their penalties as far as forwards go. Hope Larsson brought his skating legs!

    The defence is improved, but can only be considered serviceable if Klefbom decides to show up this season. What is his latest malady?

    One injury to Talbot and the season is likely over. *sigh*

    I don’t know if Chiarelli has anything left up his sleeves, but if not, he should probably gather up his three letters.

  22. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Ducey,

    By my count that is 7 D, most teams carry 8, why would Florida be in a rush to part with their depth?

  23. Centre of attention says:

    Condors sign this guy: http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=20716

    Decent RHD bet?

  24. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    ” Can you reasonably suggest Peter Chiarelli has done more to help this team than the Flames have done? ”

    I think so … as far as I can tell the Flames have done very little (maybe the Brossoit trade?) to help this team.

  25. Ducey says:

    Gordie Wayne:
    Jordan,

    I have always wondered if it would be a possibility to see Yak on the point on the PP

    I would love to see it for a 5 game stretch or so to see how that would pan out.

    Eakins tried him there for about 5 games. It was a disaster. He literally had no idea how to play defense and he turned over the puck a lot to boot.

    You need someone with calm feet and a low panic level back there. Yak is the opposite of that.

    Davidson is good fit on the PP. He has a nice slapper and poise under pressure. He only got 22 PP minutes last year but had 2 goals. His p/60 on the PP was 3rd best on the team – just ahead of Korpse 🙂 He might be a good fit to play the right side on the PP so he can get off a one timer.

  26. Centre of attention says:

    23 year old RHD prospect with some offense, I like the bet.

  27. Ducey says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Ducey,

    By my count that is 7 D, most teams carry 8, why would Florida be in a rush to part with their depth?

    Cause they would only play 6. I don’t think any of those guys profiles as a guy you want eating popcorn most nights.

  28. dustrock says:

    They had the Matheson interview with the players at the pro-am and Hendricks said “we all knew changes are coming and I’m not surprised it’s Taylor leaving”. I’m not in the office so I can’t grab the article but that’s pretty close to verbatim.

    Matheson, natch, didn’t dig into that comment – did he mean he figured Hall would be gone because he’s valuable and that’s what it takes, or for another reason?

  29. PerryK says:

    Sena Acolaste

    POSITION D/RW SHOOTS R HEIGHT 183 cm / 6’0″ WEIGHT 95 kg / 209 lbs – See more at: http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=33574#sthash.CFoXx9Lp.dpuf

    Depth D/F for Bakersfield.

  30. Ducey says:

    Centre of attention:
    Condors sign this guy: http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=20716

    Decent RHD bet?

    Meh. 23 yrs old, small, and still in the ECHL? He shoots the correct way and its hard not to like someone named Frankie, but he has a long ways to go to get to even Phil Larssen/ MAB status.

  31. Stud Muffin says:

    Hendricks should be in the certain oilers and Letestu in the uncertain oilers.
    Don’t know why you hate Matt Hendricks.

  32. Spydyr says:

    ” So all things being equal, if we were to start today with our ‘D’ I’d be quite happy. ”

    Looks like an NHL record eleven years outside the playoffs.

  33. John Chambers says:

    You know what I would really like to see for Nail Yakupov early in this coming season – I’d like to see Lucic spend a good chunk of time on the same line as Yak, and have Lucic teach him about how to compete every shift, how to make the smart play, how to prepare for games, how to go on the ice full of confidence, etc.

    Imagine Lucic – Draisaitl – Yakupov where 27 is turning his linemates into consummate professionals.

  34. theres oil in virginia says:

    Ribs: Ah, the annual season’s death knell proclamation from the GM. *sigh*

    That’s exactly what I was thinking, but didn’t want to say it. It’s like some kind of curse.

  35. bendelson says:

    dustrock,

    Nothing untoward was said in the interview.

    Stud Muffin,

    He’s 35 with very little tread left on the tires.
    Nobody dislikes Hendricks (Ekblad could be the exception).

  36. kinger_OIL says:

    John Chambers,

    – I’m in synch with your thoughts today! JC says: “Imagine Lucic – Draisaitl – Yakupov where 27 is turning his linemates into consummate professionals.”

    – One of the factors overlooked in the whole revamp with Lucic, is here is a guy who is a winner, has won a cup, played for elite teams, still in his prime. None of the “kids” on the Oil have ever had a vet player, that actually has game, can walk the walk and talk the talk, and will command their respect for his results as a player on ice, as well as his approach to the game.

    – Ferrence had high max VO2, but he was garbage, a lacky for management, and if you have played high-level sport, you know exactly what the young-guns thought of him.

    – The closest the Oil had since we started drafting # 1’s was Horcoff (but he wasn’t a winner from another team, just the best vet on our team, and really a good soldier).

  37. GCW_69 says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan:
    ” Can you reasonably suggest Peter Chiarelli has done more to help this team than the Flames have done? ”

    I think so … as far as I can tell the Flames have done very little (maybe the Brossoit trade?) to help this team.

    Made me chuckle. Thanks!

  38. Melman says:

    Hudler on a 1 or 2 year for some RW/C veteran depth?

    EDIT: oops – thought he shot R for some reason

  39. Melman says:

    As ridiculous as it sounds…. Gagner on a cheap 1 year? ha ha ha

    Santorelli though might be OK depth for the vet RW/C role. No bat, but skating is ok and he knows how to play his role

  40. Pechetr says:

    Really looking forward to the TEAM being better without Hall than with. Never understood and still don’t understand the love affair. So many analytical minds on this site yet few seem to be able to read between the lines. Focus on what was NOT said about Taylor Hall in various interviews rather than on what was. Hall was referred to as a “good player” on several occasions. Never were the comments “Leader in the room” , “Leader on the ice”, “Character guy”, “Well liked by his team mates”, “Respected” referenced in regards to Hall. I grew tired very quickly of the tantrums on the ice, the incessant whining to officials, water bottle tossing, stick over the crossbar breaking etc. I will always remember him throwing his Captain under the bus in the interview about it being “An honor to play in the NHL” There are reasons we hear rumblings about why other GM’s didn’t see Hall as Captain material, There are reasons he isn’t picked for certain teams despite being a top 5 point producer. There is a reason Larsson was the best return available. Time to move on folks. That horse is long since dead.

  41. PDO says:

    Jordan:
    What if Yakupov is the Hammer on the PP?

    We’d need a RH passer to make that happen.

  42. GCW_69 says:

    Listening to lowdown with Lowetide.

    Enjoyed the Willis interview. Man the Oilers drive me crazy.

    My take aways, summarized in this fake management discussion:

    Oilers management, “If we sign a veteran right winger like Versteeg, Hudler or Vrbata, odds are JP won’t make the team, or we will have to waive Yak or put him in the press box ” “Oh, we can’t do that. JP has potential! Yak was a first overall pick.”

    “Ok, what about the defence? If we sign Wiz and he is healthy, or trade for another right hand defender, then nurse will have to beat Davidson to make the team this year, and he probably isn’t ready to do that yet.” “What? Did you see Nurse rag doll Polak? We need him on the team. He’s a high draft pick, so surely he will take a big step forward. ”

    “Are we sure on the monster as back up?” “Come on, we were chasing him back before he signed in Toronto. He was best goalie outside the NHL at one time. Pretty sure Yzerman loves him.” “But Enroth is better.” “He’s short. No thanks.”

    “So, vacation time?” “Doesn’t appear much else to do. See you in September.”

  43. GCW_69 says:

    Melman:
    Hudler on a 1 or 2 year for some RW/C veteran depth?

    EDIT: oops – thought he shot R for some reason

    He plays right wing though, doesn’t he. Gaudreau plays left wing and he played a lot with Gaudreau.

  44. Oilspill says:

    We have 20 mill tied up in Klefbom Fayne Larsson Sekara and Ference. Not a chance in hell we are even in the picture for Barrie.

  45. LMHF#1 says:

    Melman:
    As ridiculous as it sounds…. Gagner on a cheap 1 year?ha ha ha

    Not ridiculous at all. It’d be a solid move.

  46. russ99 says:

    I just don’t get why Oilers management seems to stop short in FA.

    This year with the cap room and a seeming directive to compete in the new building, there’s no excuse.

    Point shot RHD and 2-way RHC or RW is still needed.

  47. russ99 says:

    LMHF#1 Gagner

    I’d think any forward added would need to have a solid 2-way game.

  48. LMHF#1 says:

    russ99:
    I just don’t get why Oilers management seems to stop short in FA.

    This year with the cap room and a seeming directive to compete in the new building, there’s no excuse.

    Point shot RHD and 2-way RHC or RW is still needed.

    Not quite ready to say this just yet.

    There are always bargains as summer drags on. If they close up shop and go with this group to TC, then you’re right.

    They could still sign Wiz, Gagner and invite a couple guys who don’t get contracts to TC easily.

  49. russ99 says:

    Oilspill:
    We have 20 mill tied up in Klefbom Fayne Larsson Sekara and Ference.Not a chance in hell we are even in the picture for Barrie.

    Ference is off the books on LTIR on opening day. As long as we have the cap room to carry him that first day, we can use his cap room for other players.

  50. Woodguy says:

    If this roster doesn’t receive more help, it is very difficult to see a path past many Pacific teams, including Calgary.

    Well, lets check how many Oilers will be slotted above their current NHL ability.

    I’ve had to assume a couple things in terms of lines.

    FORWARDS
    Lucic-McD-Eberle – 100% at their level
    Pou-RNH-Yak Yak above his level
    Marron-DrySaddle-JP – JP above his head, may come up quickly, I think we can slot Saddle here comfortably.
    Hendo-TheTestu-Kassian – None above their level

    So that’s 2 F’s above their level. Not bad. 2RW could really use a better player. Maybe Kassian regains his form from 13-15

    DMEN
    Klef-Larsson – I say 100% at their level, I know I’d get arguments, but I’m content in being right
    Sekera – Fayne – I would say Sekera for sure, but Fayne is a debate, but I let him in.
    Nurse – Davidson – Nurse above his level, Davidson at (even below) his level

    Talbot – close to his level, really, really, really need him to be an actual starter
    Gustavsson – they aimed lower than I would have, but he’s a NHL backup, just not a good one

    So really I see 3, maybe 4 players slotted above their ability and that’s miles from where they have been since MacT was coach.

    Also,

    My Klef/Larsson argument

    1) Klef – played the toughs last year with drag Schultz and came out ahead (RelxGF%+4.01) AND had a Relative CA/60 of -5.04

    That means that when Klef was on the ice the Oilers were more likely to win the goal share AND they had 5 less corsi attempts against per hour.

    He did all this with a Relative zone start of -4, which means he started in the Dzone more than other Oilers.

    That’s a big deal

    WoodMoney tells us that he spent 40% of his time vs. Elite forwards AND had a RelDFFcomp of 3.9% which tells us that against the Elite Forward, they were less likey to score vs Klef than the average Oiler Dman.

    He’s the goods.

    Larsson

    Played the toughs last year with good partner Greene (he’s better away from Greene and Greene is worse away from him though….) and had a xGF% of +1.07 AND a RelCA/60 of -2.01

    This means that when Larsson was on the ice NJD were better at Goal share AND the opposing team had less shots against per hour

    He did all this with a relative zone start of -24(!!!!!!!!!!) which is a ridiculous number. Nearest NHL Dmen to this were Vlasic/Braun with ~-16.

    That’s a huge deal.

    WoodMoney tells us he spent 42% of his time against Elite forwards and had a relDFFcomp% of -2%
    which tells us that NJD was a little less likey to win the goal share against the elite when he was on the ice, but BLOODY HELL he started in the dzone over 40% of the time and all other NJD started in the dzone around 26% of the time, which are among the easiest starts in the NHL.

    The fact that we wasn’t caved in and actual won the xGF% battle is the sign of some high quality.

  51. geowal says:

    I heard Lt still hates laddie Smid too.

  52. G Money says:

    Speaking of those dastardly Cowtowners, I’m extremely frustrated that the glow of the Jack Adams didn’t mask the stench enough to buy Hartley another year.

    The little bit of digging I’ve done on Gulutzan at least leaves me to believe he’s an average coach, and that alone will probably jump those stupid Falmes five spots in the standings.

    Interesting, though, that Johnny Cocky and Smoynihan remain unsigned.

  53. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Ducey,

    So, what does Edmonton have that they want?

  54. Woodguy says:

    NOTE: I’m always an optimist at this time of year

    The D depth is sooooo much better than it has been though.

    Just need health.

  55. Shizuka says:

    Is it too much to hope for Lander? Is he a completely lost cause? Right up through pre-season last year he was fantastic, including a stretch at the end of the 2014-15 season where he looked as if he’d turned a corner — then the bottom dropped out and he went down a vortex; seemed to lose a step (I thought his speed had improved to about average at the end of ’14-15), whatever little offense he produced dried up completely and he most definitely lost any semblance of assertive and confident play.

    He is a mighty underdog this season and a prime waiver candidate I am sure, but I still see value in the player even as a 4th line C option. I sure hope he is refocusing this off-season and brings it, as I’m pulling for the kid (where it seems most everyone else has tossed their hands up).

  56. Ducey says:

    LMHF#1: Not ridiculous at all. It’d be a solid move.

    Gagner put up 16 points last year. 16!

    He put up 3 points in 100 PP minutes. He got sent to the AHL. He is marginally better than Pakarinen 5 on 5 in terms of points per 60 (1.28 vs 1.16 (Kassian was 1.13)). Sam is not an offensive player anymore. And he doesn’t have the all round game like Cogs.

    And Gagner was zoomed by Couturier, while Pak was anchored to Korpse.

    Not solid.

  57. Ducey says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Ducey,

    So, what does Edmonton have that they want?

    Maybe someone from the leftorium? Reinhart for Petrovic? Reinhart can be sent down and provide them with depth

  58. RexLibris says:

    G Money:
    Speaking of those dastardly Cowtowners, I’m extremely frustrated that the glow of the Jack Adams didn’t mask the stench enough to buy Hartley another year.

    The little bit of digging I’ve done on Gulutzan at least leaves me to believe he’s an average coach, and that alone will probably jump those stupid Falmes five spots in the standings.

    Interesting, though, that Johnny Cocky and Smoynihan remain unsigned.

    Expect JG and SM to sign for less than market value.

    CGY has been doing this for a long, long time.

    Going back to Glencross’ extension and his fabled horse ride in the hills with Ken King only to come back and sign a hometown discount deal.

    Then they sign Brodie to a criminally under-paid long term deal as well. Backlund on an inexpensive deal, Giordano to a reasonable deal. The only time they seem to shoot themselves in the head is when they hit free-agency, and even then Hudler’s deal (4×4, iirc) was phenomenal value for what he brought.

    The last time they got sunk on internal retention deals hat I can recall were the Iginla, Kiprusoff, Bouwmeester deals.

    Gaudreau was rumoured to be in the range of a Tarasenko-type extension and Monahan looked like a six-and-change kind of signing was in the works.

    As for Gulutzan, I think he could help improve them a bit, but we’ll see how he does. I suspect if anything CGY uses their improved F depth and stabilized D corps (due to the replacement of Russell for Jokkipakka) to rocket up the standings to the esteemed rank of sub-average.

    I just started thinking about the Flames wrt my pre-season projections that I’ll be working on next month and was wondering where they might finish. Without having done any work on the topic just yet, I’d probably ballpark them to finish 10th in the West at best. Goaltending alone could buy them several positions in the standings.

  59. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy:
    NOTE: I’m always an optimist at this time of year

    The D depth is sooooo much better than it has been though.

    Just need health.

    Oilers are undefeated in 108 straight days! WOOT!

  60. theWaxCollector says:

    http://www.hockeyfeed.com/nhl-news/as-many-as-four-players-on-the-move-in-big-trade-rumor?ref=jo

    Stumbled across this story today, unreliable source yes, but a little frightening. Getting Dumba, Zucker, and a pick would be nice, but losing Nuge can’t happen

  61. Woodguy says:

    Ducey,

    Eakins tried him there for about 5 games. It was a disaster. He literally had no idea how to play defense and he turned over the puck a lot to boot.

    When Eakins ran the 5 forward PP it scored at 50%.

    50%!!!!!

    Then he disbanded it after one shorty where the puck hopped on Yak (vs. Toews)

    So if by “disaster” you mean “an unreal 50% conversion rate that couldn’t sustain but nevertheless was amazing” then I agree.

  62. slopitch says:

    Woodguy, Im with ya in terms of optimism (but hey its summer and I need to get excited for the following season no?!?).

    I do think Nurse or Reinhart should combine to provide 3rd pairing capable D. Yak is in above his head if he’s pegged to play with the Nuge. Id rather he plays softs with Drai and Maroon and they find a 1 year deal for a 2way RW so JP can get 40+ games in the AHL. Outside of that, they need a PP dman although I think a 4th forward on the PP is a decent bet.

  63. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Ducey,

    They have a left side of Yandle, Matheson, Kindl and McCoshen pushing for a spot.

    I agree they’ll likely move one of Pysyk or Petrovic eventually but I think they’ll hold out for supplementary scoring.

  64. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Woodguy,

    Thank you for remembering this WG.

    That PP was amazing.

    Lest we forget.

  65. kinger_OIL says:

    Woodguy,

    – You’ve incorporated woodmoney into your analysis (I would too if I was you!)

    – Your looking at this in slightly different light than I did in my post, and you are relying on some players playing to historical, yet small-sample figures.

    – I have 9 players that I figure we know who we have

    – You are more “comfortable” with this roster than I am:

    1) If you have Drai as your 3rd C, and don’t expect anything close to last years production, fine
    2) As a 3rd line though Drai-JP-Maroon: that’s a lot of hope, with three guys without a consistent track-record in the NHL
    3) No choice but to annoint Klef-Larsson as top pairing, but I’m not comfortable with a guy who hasn’t played a whole season, and has a weird ankle-thingy, and we don’t have high confidence interval on Larsson, regardless of his numbers on a different team, different situation
    4) A third pairing with a guy who was injured and has played less than 40 games, and another guy who was brutal: I’m not comfortable with that either

    – I could “hope” that things turn out great from 1-4, but I’m not comfortable doing so.

    – I have put Talbot in the you know who you have, but I’m not “hoping” he becomes elite. Fayne, Lucic, Ebs, RNH, Pou, Sek: you know who you have

    – I’m not comfortable that only Sek-Fayne are known on the back-end. Larsson, I’m fine with top-4, but not sold on top-pairing in this situation, untill he does it.

    – Less holes on D than before (questions of playing above their weight, vs: can they play?)

    – I suspect based on this roster, your Hunter point prediction will be higher than mine….

  66. Richard S.S. says:

    The Expansion Draft will be an eye-opener for most GMs. No one knows when Gary Bettman will freeze the Rosters, but all should know it’s happening. I’d be surprised if they didn’t know.

    Having good NHL/NHL-ready Players that need not be protected are worth their weight in diamonds. Having tradable good NHL/NHL-ready Players that need not be protected exceeds the gold standard. You should get anything you want for that player, if other GMs disagree, too bad on them.

    There are at least several Teams, possibly more that could have problems protecting all their D. Could Peter Chiarelli acquire a top-2, -3, -4 Right Shot, puck-moving D for Darnell Nurse and his 2017 1st?

  67. Eh Team says:

    Woodguy: FORWARDS
    Lucic-McD-Eberle – 100% at their level
    Pou-RNH-Yak Yak above his level
    Marron-DrySaddle-JP – JP above his head, may come up quickly, I think we can slot Saddle here comfortably.
    Hendo-TheTestu-Kassian – None above their level
    So that’s 2 F’s above their level. Not bad. 2RW could really use a better player. Maybe Kassian regains his form from 13-15
    DMEN
    Klef-Larsson – I say 100% at their level, I know I’d get arguments, but I’m content in being right
    Sekera – Fayne – I would say Sekera for sure, but Fayne is a debate, but I let him in.
    Nurse – Davidson – Nurse above his level, Davidson at (even below) his level
    Talbot – close to his level, really, really, really need him to be an actual starter
    Gustavsson – they aimed lower than I would have, but he’s a NHL backup, just not a good one

    This is an okay lineup right now, but in January when 3-4 guys are injured it’s going to look pretty horrific, if those guys that are hurt are a couple of the top 6 forwards or a couple of the better defensemen. I’m actually less worried about the defense, since Reinhart and Osterle can step in, but if we are playing Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian as the third line by that time, then the Oilers are in a pile of hurt again. We really need some call-ups that can step in and be plausible NHL forwards this year and that isn’t looking too promising. Or we need a viable 3LC right now to provide some depth.

  68. Oilspill says:

    …. playing with weaker players will make your results worse (quality of teammate). Playing against better players will make your results worse; playing against weaker players will make your results better (quality of competition). Starting more of your shifts in the offensive zone will make your results better; starting more of your shifts in the defensive zone will make your results worse. So it is predictive if the same circumstances are met to the T which the never are.

  69. G Money says:

    I’m struggling to figure out how to identify the ‘true’ impact of Larsson’s zone starts.

    Raw zone start numbers are heavily polluted by ‘earned’ zone starts (poor possession players end up with more defensive zone faceoffs because they are poor possession players), and heavily compromised by failing to include the context of all shifts.

    In Larsson’s case, his numbers look like this

    D Zone faceoffs: ~650 out of ~950 total o/d faceoffs (hence the idea that he’s buried)

    D Zone true starts: ~300 – this is obviously less ‘punished’ than 650 implies

    Shifts: ~ 2200 – which means less than 14% of Larsson’s shifts involve his coach sending him out to start a shift in the d zone. He earned the rest, they are more a reflection of his possession numbers rather than a driver of them. [the catch being that some subsequent d zone faceoffs are a result of the original d zone start, so the numbers become conflated – though some would argue that’s still a reflection of possession]

    Purely on the fly shifts (no faceoffs at all): ~1100

    These counts are what lead to the rubric ‘zone starts don’t actually matter very much’.

    In fact, they matter a great deal at the faceoff level – if you lose a faceoff in the d zone, we know your shot metrics are going to get hammered.

    Much less so if you win the faceoff. (The Devils were not a good faceoff team at 46.5%, but that means of Larsson’s ~300 d zone true starts, he was chasing the puck about 160 times … out of over 2000 shifts).

    But even with a heavily unsheltered player like Larsson, the impact on his overall numbers does not appear likely to be very significant – 160 times out of 2200 just doesn’t move the needle much.

    I’m trying to disentangle his actual zone start results by looking at the pattern of shots after a FO win/loss vs top comp (a very intricate disentanglement I might add), but unless that shows something different, I’m inclined to say that Larsson’s zone starts do not explain away his bad results vs top comp.

    That’s why I’m less optimistic than is WG.

    Yes, he’s better than his (poor) teammates in general, but he’s hardly driving great results. He’s capable, especially in defensive coverage, but expecting Larsson to thrive on top comp here – even with less punishing zone starts – after getting caved in NJD just doesn’t strike me as very likely.

    I hope I’m wrong.

  70. Ryan says:

    Ducey:
    Seems to me that something has to give in the RHD department with FLA.

    They have Ekblad, Demers, Pysyk and Petrovic on the right. None can be waived.

    On LHD they Yandle, Kindl and Matheson. They could send down Matheson, but you have to figure they would be keen on him.

    You’d have to think Petrovic is available.

    They really need a top pairing LHS dman.

    Maybe they think Ekblad can carry Yandle.

    They still need a top four LHS dman.

    I don’t think Chia’s interested though.

  71. fifthcartel says:

    The Oilers really should sign Wisniewski, or even Rundblad.

    I would have signed Y. Weber to play with Davidson on the 3rd pair and play PP, but Nashville is smarter than Edmonton is.

    Could Sekera-Wisniewski be a decent 2nd pair? Then Davidson-Fayne?

  72. Truth says:

    The lack of signing a RW is surely an endorsement of Yak in the top 6 for the time being. Although Eberle has been shown as a better option on McDavid’s wing, I think it goes Lucic – McDavid – Yak, Pouliot – Nuge – Eberle to start the season. If Yak can’t hack it with McDavid (and Kassian fills in just as well in a limited role) then I believe the Oilers may cut bait and send him out for a 3rd round pick or limit his role and play him in the minutes that his play warrants. If that happens I’d hope that an option like Vrbata is still available, but I doubt it.

    I don’t know how signing Wisniewski would hinder this team? As Woodguy has pointed out, Nurse is the current liability on D. Wiz playing 3 RD and Davidson swapping over to his natural position fixes that (presuming Wiz hasn’t significantly regressed). I’d then play Nurse, Reinhart, etc. in the AHL and rotate them up through the NHL to spell off the tired, sick, and injured.

  73. Murphyb says:

    I think the Oilers should take a serious look at Connor Murphy. Arizona hasn’t resigned the RFA yet and I think they are still struggling a bit to come together. Murphy is a former first rounder in 2011, RHD, trending up and only 23 (plus he’s a Murphy).

  74. Ryan says:

    G Money,

    Is there anyway to calculate his corsi for on the fly shifts and compare it to other dmen?

  75. G Money says:

    Ryan,

    You got it, that’s exactly what I’m trying to do. Isolate results for on-the-fly shifts / true o zone starts / true d zone starts vis a vis other D vs top comp. Hence: “intricate”

  76. DRFNsuperstar says:

    PDO: We’d need a RH passer to make that happen.

    Ovechkin and Carlson/Green disagree.

  77. Woodguy says:

    Interesting Home/Away splits for Gaudreau.

    He’s just coming off his ELC so you “expect” him to be better at home due to match ups, but its still kinda stark:

    Player Comp Conf DFF%RelComp
    Johnny Gaudreau Elite Home 1.9%
    Johnny Gaudreau Elite Away -0.4%
    Johnny Gaudreau Muddle Home 1.9%
    Johnny Gaudreau Muddle Away -2.2%
    Johnny Gaudreau Dregs Home 5.0%
    Johnny Gaudreau Dregs Away -1.7%

    Now compare that to Tarasenko, who’s been kicked around as a comparable:

    Player Comp Conf DFF%RelComp
    Vladimir Tarasenko Elite Home 7.9%
    Vladimir Tarasenko Elite Away -0.3%
    Vladimir Tarasenko Muddle Home -0.4%
    Vladimir Tarasenko Muddle Away -1.4%
    Vladimir Tarasenko Dregs Home 5.5%
    Vladimir Tarasenko Dregs Away 2.1%

  78. Woodguy says:

    G Money,

    D Zone true starts: ~300

    The key metric here is Relative.

    What’s Severson at?

  79. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Ryan,

    I think they feel Matheson is capable of being a top 4 guy.
    By the end of the playoffs he was paired up with Ekblad.

    Then he went to the World Championships and had 6 points in 10 games where he won Best Defensemen of the tournament.

  80. Woodguy says:

    G Money,

    Another thing that makes me bullish:

    Larsson
    Ozone start 20.9%
    Ozone finish 29.7%

    Severson
    Ozone start 34.5%
    Ozone finish 35.8%

    When you consider that often a change happens when the puck transitions from dzone to ozone it makes Larsson’s 9% increase even better.

  81. Eastern Oil says:

    Truth,

    I was thinking of this myself the other day. JP aside, if the Oilers think they are set on the RW front, they either think that Kassian is a 2/3, JP is a 1/2 ORRRR they still have faith in Yak.

    I am leaning towards the first two thoughts considering who Yak ended up playing with last year unless they go back to Yak on Connor’s wing due to the great 10 game stretch.

    Either way, not getting a depth/veteran RW means they have too much faith in a) JP b) Kassian c) Yak or d) all of the above.

    And that is not even considering injuries!

  82. LMHF#1 says:

    Ducey: Gagner put up 16 points last year. 16!

    He put up 3 points in 100 PP minutes. He got sent to the AHL. He is marginally better than Pakarinen 5 on 5 in terms of points per 60 (1.28 vs 1.16 (Kassian was 1.13)). Sam is not an offensive player anymore.And he doesn’t have the all round game like Cogs.

    And Gagner was zoomed by Couturier, while Pak was anchored to Korpse.

    Not solid.

    I’m aware of all of this. He’s 26. He has a track record. At cheap $$$s he’s a solid signing who can play 4C and move up/around in a pinch. Also has a RH shot on the PP that works. Would have him as a tertiary option.

  83. stevezie says:

    Barrie is good at what he does but after losing Hall can we afford to trade for him? Unless it’s for next year’s first (+) i don’t think so.

    The Hall trade means if we get a puck mover wr go cheap. Murphy makes sense, maybe Jameswizz. Discount bin time.

    Real shame Yak didnt turn out. Maybe next year…

  84. JimmyV1965 says:

    Pechetr:
    Really looking forward to the TEAM being better without Hall than with. Never understood and still don’t understand the love affair. So many analytical minds on this site yet few seem to be able to read between the lines. Focus on what was NOT said about Taylor Hall in various interviews rather than on what was. Hall was referred to as a “good player” on several occasions. Never were the comments “Leader in the room” , “Leader on the ice”, “Character guy”, “Well liked by his team mates”, “Respected” referenced in regards to Hall. I grew tired very quickly of the tantrums on the ice, the incessant whining to officials, water bottle tossing, stick over the crossbar breaking etc. I will always remember him throwing his Captain under the bus in the interview about it being “An honor to play in the NHL” There are reasons we hear rumblings about why other GM’s didn’t see Hall as Captain material, There are reasons he isn’t picked for certain teams despite being a top 5 point producer. There is a reason Larsson was the best return available. Time to move on folks. That horse is long since dead.

    No offence, but I hate this knuckle dragging read between the lines garbage. Hall has won everywhere but here.

  85. stevezie says:

    LMHF#1,

    I think he’s a player but don’t see a fit here. He’d have to play rw and come real, real, “get my career back in track” cheap.

    The 4th line is for penalty killers.

    Real cheap.

  86. stevezie says:

    Pechetr,

    He may well be a jerk. It may have made sense to move him. We still lost the trade.

    Kane and Seguin don’t sound like my kind of people either. Character only gets you so far.

  87. Jethro Tull says:

    Pechetr: I grew tired very quickly of the tantrums on the ice, the incessant whining to officials

    You don’t like Sidney Crosby?

  88. Ducey says:

    Woodguy:
    Ducey,

    Eakins tried him there for about 5 games. It was a disaster. He literally had no idea how to play defense and he turned over the puck a lot to boot.

    When Eakins ran the 5 forward PP it scored at 50%.

    50%!!!!!

    Then he disbanded it after one shorty where the puck hopped on Yak (vs. Toews)

    So if by “disaster” you mean “an unreal 50% conversion rate that couldn’t sustain but nevertheless was amazing” then I agree.

    Take it from Bruce himself. Yak was on for 4 shorties.

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/how-not-to-play-point-on-the-powerplay-by-nail-yakupov

    I have no problem with having a F on the point, but there is no way in hell it should be Yak.

  89. Jethro Tull says:

    stevezie:
    Pechetr,

    He may well be a jerk. It may have made sense to move him. We still lost the trade.

    Kane and Seguin don’t sound like my kind of people either. Character only gets you so far.

    Yep. At some point in your career, somebody, somewhere, is going to insist that you can actually play hockey before putting you on the ice for anything more meaningful than giving better players a rest.

  90. Woodguy says:

    Here’s an example of what I’m talking about.

    Zajac is the “tough minute” C on NJD.

    O Zone Start (raw ozone face offs) (OZS), Ozone start % (O/(O+D)) and xGF%

    With Severson (218 min)
    OZS – 57
    DZS – 38
    OZS% – 60%
    xGF% – 42.7%

    With Larsson (508 min)
    OZS – 145
    DZS – 264
    OZS% – 35.5%
    xGF% – 47.96%

    I’d expect the “True” zone starts ratios to be similar to “Face Off Starts”

    What we see is that despite being quite far behind the 8ball compared to Severson/Zajac that Larsson/Zajac have a much better xGF%

    Tougher starts, more of them and better results.

    This is an example of why I’m bullish.

    Also,

    Within season xGF% tells us much more than CF% (and its correlated to actual goals much better than CF% within a season)

    Its a lot like G’s DFF and has a correlation over 95% with DFF.

    Where the puck is shot from matters.

  91. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: Within season xGF% tells us much more than CF% (and its correlated to actual goals much better than CF% within a season)
    Its a lot like G’s DFF and has a correlation over 95% with DFF.
    Where the puck is shot from matters.

    🙂

    🙂

    🙂

    🙂

    Boo Yah!

    Boo Ahhh!

  92. Woodguy says:

    New Yotes GM channeling his inner Darrell Sutter:

    “The philosophy is fairly simple. It’s when we don’t have the puck, recover the puck as quickly as possible. There are all kinds of different forms where you can gain possession of the puck, some of them are physical and some of them are non-physical, so I think you need a blend to have both. Once you get the puck back it’s to transition the puck. Defense isn’t about defending, it’s about getting the puck in the forwards’ hands and getting the puck moving into the offensive zone. It’s about transitioning. That’s the philosophy and that’s been the theme behind the moves that we’re making, let’s get players who can get pucks back and get pucks up to forwards in an efficient and effective manner.

    Source: https://www.nhl.com/news/coyotes-general-manager-john-chayka-interview/c-281231116

  93. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: Take it from Bruce himself. Yak was on for 4 shorties.

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/how-not-to-play-point-on-the-powerplay-by-nail-yakupov

    I have no problem with having a F on the point, but there is no way in hell it should be Yak.

    I was speaking specifically to the 5 forward set up.

    I apologize to you for getting conflated about that.

    I still like Yak on the point, fuck the shorties!

    Jultz aint here no more to be the one “defenseman” on the PP.

  94. Ducey says:

    Woodguy:
    Here’s an example of what I’m talking about.

    Zajac is the “tough minute” C on NJD.

    O Zone Start (raw ozone face offs) (OZS), Ozone start % (O/(O+D)) and xGF%

    With Severson (218 min)
    OZS – 57
    DZS – 38
    OZS% – 60%
    xGF% – 42.7%

    With Larsson (508 min)
    OZS – 145
    DZS – 264
    OZS%– 35.5%
    xGF% – 47.96%

    I’d expect the “True” zone starts ratios to be similar to “Face Off Starts”

    What we see is that despite being quite far behind the 8ball compared to Severson/Zajac that Larsson/Zajac have a much better xGF%

    Tougher starts, more of them and better results.

    This is an example of why I’m bullish.

    Also,

    Within season xGF% tells us much more than CF% (and its correlated to actual goals much better than CF% withina season)

    Its a lot like G’s DFF and has a correlation over 95% with DFF.

    Where the puck is shot from matters.

    I’m curious. G says zone starts don’t matter. I understand why he says so but I think they are a proxy for how the coach uses the player (if you are on for more DZ start you likely have the trust of the coach and likely are used in more defensive situations against tougher comp). I think they matter. If I am a coach and we are pinned in our own zone for 2 minutes and finally chip it out to get a change, I am likely going to get my better D on to try and change momentum and retrieve the puck.

    Also, I think people need to look at the nature of NZ starts. A faceoff at the offside dots nearest the DZ is likely to end up with some time in the DZ. If the offense wins the faceoff, they are going to immediately attack. If the defense wins, they usually do so by drawing the puck back into their own zone. There really isn’t a lot of difference from this and an actual DZ start.

  95. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear: conflated

    Booya indeed sir!

    Booya indeed.

  96. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: I’m curious. G says zone starts don’t matter. I understand why he says so but I think they are a proxy for how the coach uses the player (if you are on for more DZ start you likely have the trust of the coach and likely are used in more defensive situations against tougher comp). I think they matter. If I am a coach and we are pinned in our own zone for 2 minutes and finally chip it out to get a change, I am likely going to get my better D on to try and change momentum and retrieve the puck.

    Also, I think people need to look at the nature of NZ starts. A faceoff at the offside dots nearest the DZ is likely to end up with some time in the DZ. If the offense wins the faceoff, they are going to immediately attack. If the defense wins, they usually do so by drawing the puck back into their own zone.There really isn’t a lot of difference from this and an actual DZ start.

    These are good reading about zone starts and generally why they don’t matter:

    https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/15/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-i-maybe-not-as-much-as-we-thought/

    https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/20/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-part-ii-a-lot-on-their-own-not-that-much-in-aggregate/

    The thing with Larsson is that his usage is so outside the norm that it must be considered.

    I’m just not sure any adjustment measure works in extreme circumstances. They may.

    Here’s a list of every Dman with over 1000 min last year who had a -10 RelZSR or tougher. (Relative Zone Start Ratio – remember ZSR is OZS/(OZS+DZS)

    ADAM.LARSSON -24.81
    ANDY.GREENE -24.42
    KARL.ALZNER -14.41
    NICK.SCHULTZ -14.27
    JONAS.BRODIN -14.03
    BEN.LOVEJOY -13.44
    DAN.GIRARDI -13.24
    MATT.NISKANEN -13.11
    DANNY.DEKEYSER -12.48
    CHRIS.TANEV -11.96
    MARC.STAAL -11.66
    RYAN.MCDONAGH -11.46
    NIKLAS.HJALMARSSON -11.1
    ANDREJ.SUSTR -10.3
    ZDENO.CHARA -10.24
    DUNCAN.KEITH -9.96

    Larsson and Greene are so far off the reservation it makes you question any conclusion you have based on their fancies. (at least it should)

  97. G Money says:

    Ducey,

    To reiterate the point (it is important and also can be confusing):

    – at the individual level of any given faceoff, the location of a faceoff (and whether you win it) makes a tremendous difference to the expected results shortly thereafter. Lose a d zone faceoff and you will indeed get hammered on the shot metrics

    – but at the level of all faceoffs for any given player, the zone starts are actually a small fraction of the overall number of shifts

    As I noted above, even for a player considered as buried as Larsson, <14% of his shifts start with a coach mandated d zone face off. So even with a lousy 47% FO win rate, that means just ~8% of Larsson's shifts start with a d zone faceoff loss.

    If you adjust his poor possession numbers for that, they just don't change very much.

    That's consistent with most studies done on trying to quantify the effect of zone starts.

  98. G Money says:

    Woodguy:
    G Money,

    D Zone true starts: ~300

    The key metric here is Relative.

    What’s Severson at?

    Severson

    Shifts ~1650

    O/D faceoffs ~500

    D zone faceoffs ~220

    True d zone starts ~80

    Pure on the fly shifts ~1000

  99. John Chambers says:

    Staples has a new article up at CoH regarding Tyson Barrie:
    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/cult-of-hockey-are-things-really-going-to-work-out-swell-for-tyson-barrie-and-the-colorado-avalanche

    I agree with Staples that there is some intrigue around Barrie’s July 29th arbitration hearing. My guess is that other trades (the awful one suggested with the Minn Wild) as well as free agents such as Wisniewski and Gryba, hinge on the outcome of Roy vs Barrie.

    My guess is that Chiarelli has an offer on the table that may look like: Yakupov, Fayne, and Reinhart, while Roy may be willing to take Fayne, Davidson, and the 2017 1st …

    I think we’ll have a more solidified view of what the 2016-2017 Oilers will look like to start the season after the weekend.

  100. LMHF#1 says:

    Ducey: Take it from Bruce himself. Yak was on for 4 shorties.

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/how-not-to-play-point-on-the-powerplay-by-nail-yakupov

    I have no problem with having a F on the point, but there is no way in hell it should be Yak.

    Okay, time to nitpick! Here’s the thing – I don’t agree with the breakdown of that play

    Yakupov cuts back up the ice because Grebeshkov is supposed to bounce the puck off the boards to where Smyth or Yakupov could get it. He has total freedom and space to do this, but does not. Yakupov is not supposed to bail back into his own zone to give Grebeshkov an outlet – the play has no business winding up there. This was all on Denis.

    I don’t want to see Yakupov on the point for a different reason – he’s best down beside the net. Round about where the goal against LA to send it to OT came from.

  101. Ducey says:

    Woodguy:

    I still like Yak on the point, fuck the shorties!

    Heightist!

  102. G Money says:

    Ducey,

    Your other point is fair, which is that where a N zone start occurs might matter to the subsequent results.

    On balance (as you’d expect), N zone starts are almost entirely non impactful on overall numbers, but if Larsson is always getting sent out for any NZ faceoff on his side of centre, and someone else always gets the NZ faceoffs outside the other teams blue line, that could have an effect.

    Unfortunately, the NHL doesn’t provide locations for faceoffs, so trying to suss that effect out and what impact it has if any would have to be tracked manually.

  103. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Woodguy:
    New Yotes GM channeling his inner Darrell Sutter:

    “The philosophy is fairly simple. It’s when we don’t have the puck, recover the puck as quickly as possible. There are all kinds of different forms where you can gain possession of the puck, some of them are physical and some of them are non-physical, so I think you need a blend to have both. Once you get the puck back it’s to transition the puck. Defense isn’t about defending, it’s about getting the puck in the forwards’ hands and getting the puck moving into the offensive zone. It’s about transitioning. That’s the philosophy and that’s been the theme behind the moves that we’re making, let’s get players who can get pucks back and get pucks up to forwards in an efficient and effective manner.

    Source: https://www.nhl.com/news/coyotes-general-manager-john-chayka-interview/c-281231116

    Not sure why he signed Luke Schenn then. He sucks at making good passes out of his zone to the forwards. He rather give it away then go for a big hit as the puck ends up in his own end. Lol. OK I’m done.

  104. rickithebear says:

    To get a WC spot :
    with PPGF and PKGA being equal:
    forwards need to outscore EVGA by .31 EVGF/60

    Last year;
    Larsson 1.35 EVGA/60 – 300 forwards can generate 1.66 EVGF/60
    Davidson 1.85 EVGA/60 – 187 forwards can generate 2.16 EVGF/60
    Sekera 2.50 EVGA/60 – 46 forwards can generate 2.81
    Fayne 2.56 EVGA/60 – 38 forwards can generate 2.87
    Reinhart 2.77 – 19 forwards can generate 3.08
    Nurse 2.91 – 9 forwards can generate 3.22
    —————————————————————

    Faulk 2.90 – 10 forwards
    Reilly 2.87 – 11 forwards
    Giordano 2.80 – 15 forwards
    Fowler 2.57 – 35 forwards
    D. Hamilton 2.57 – 35 forwards
    Brodie 2.56 – 38 forwards
    OEL 2.54 – 42 forwards
    Bogosian 2.52 – 43 forwards
    Goloigoski 2.49 – 47 forwards
    Byfuglien 2.46 – 50 forwards
    Hamonic 2.40 – 66 forwards
    Barrie 2.34 – 76 forwards
    S. jones 2.27 – 103 forwards
    Burns 2.22 – 112 forwards
    Stone 2.18 – 119 forwards
    Dumba 2.17 – 122 forwards
    boyle 2.16 – 124 forwards
    Vatanen 2.04 – 155 forwards
    Carle 2.02 – 158 forwards
    Petrovic 1.93 – 172 forwards

    Special team goal diff is very important by the Fact only top 6 forwards can outscore bottom 4 defence.

  105. Centre of attention says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: Not sure why he signed Luke Schenn then. He sucks at making good passes out of his zone to the forwards. He rather give it away then go for a big hit as the puck ends up in his own end. Lol. OK I’m done.

    I’ve said more than once, the issues you describe Schenn as having are VERY common among 3rd pair D.

    Do we all want to have Chris Pronger locking down our third pair? Of course. But because that is just fantasy teams have to settle for guys like Schenn.

    Schenn is FAR from the worst third pair D man. In fact, he is a pretty damn good third pair D.

    I probably wouldn’t have gave him the second year on his contract though. So its not a perfect signing.

  106. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    “We should sign Rundblad” , “Gagner would be a solid pickup”

    Are u guys listening to yourselves? Those 2 are fringe NHLERS at best who have underachieved their whole careers. NO they are NOT good pickups because they are lousy hockey players. I don’t see how “Wiz” is much of an improvement over Fayne either but at least he is solid when healthy.

    If we are going to add to this roster it’s going to have to be Yakupov or Fayne or draft picks that we ship out with realistic options coming back with upside like Austin Watson or Teemu Pulkkinen – 2 guys that haven’t been high on their respective teams priority lists but could thrive elsewhere.

    Petrovic is another good option. Under the radar guys like Maroon and Kassian were that could help.

  107. G Money says:

    Chayka / Schenn.

    His comment when asked about why he signed someone that most analytics suggest is not that good a player, he basically said he believes that Schenn’s strengths fit their needs and so he will do much better in the Arizona system.

    “We feel like we can put players in the right environment, the right structure and the right system…. and get their games to the next level” and “ … It’s not like he needs to do 10 things well. He just needs to do three or four really well to be effective for us.”

    Will be interesting to see how it turns out, if they indeed made the decision based on some system and player assessment methods more sophisticated than what outsiders are using, or whether it’s just a case of a rookie GM getting rooked.

  108. Woodguy says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Those are all fair comments.

    I’m always more bullish than I should be at this time of year, but after grinding Dmen data for the last 6 months I can’t tell you how much better I think this team will be with having:

    Klef
    Larsson
    Sekera
    Fayne (might be Davidson)

    as the Dmen with the most 5v5 TOI than:

    Sekera
    Nurse
    Fayne
    Gryba

    which is the the top 4 total 5v5 TOI list from last year.

    This is all assuming the Good Gord willing and the creek don’t rise.

  109. Woodguy says:

    G Money: Severson

    Shifts ~1650

    O/D faceoffs ~500

    D zone faceoffs ~220

    True d zone starts ~80

    Pure on the fly shifts ~1000

    Thanks!

  110. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy: These are good reading about zone starts and generally why they don’t matter:

    https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/15/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-i-maybe-not-as-much-as-we-thought/

    https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/20/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-part-ii-a-lot-on-their-own-not-that-much-in-aggregate/

    The thing with Larsson is that his usage is so outside the norm that it must be considered.

    I’m just not sure any adjustment measure works in extreme circumstances.They may.

    Here’s a list of every Dman with over 1000 min last year who had a -10 RelZSR or tougher. (Relative Zone Start Ratio – remember ZSR is OZS/(OZS+DZS)

    ADAM.LARSSON-24.81
    ANDY.GREENE-24.42
    KARL.ALZNER-14.41
    NICK.SCHULTZ-14.27
    JONAS.BRODIN-14.03
    BEN.LOVEJOY-13.44
    DAN.GIRARDI-13.24
    MATT.NISKANEN-13.11
    DANNY.DEKEYSER-12.48
    CHRIS.TANEV-11.96
    MARC.STAAL-11.66
    RYAN.MCDONAGH-11.46
    NIKLAS.HJALMARSSON-11.1
    ANDREJ.SUSTR-10.3
    ZDENO.CHARA-10.24
    DUNCAN.KEITH-9.96

    Larsson and Greene are so far off the reservation it makes you question any conclusion you have based on their fancies. (at least it should)

    Here’s everyone from that list with a negative Rel CA/60 (less shots against when they are on the ice)

    Larsson
    Niskanen
    Tanev
    Hjarlmasson
    Keith

    That’s it.

    Larsson doing it from the spot he did is ridiculous imo.

    Also speaks to how shitty the rest of NJD Dmen must have been at the defending part of the game (as a whole)

  111. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Centre of attention: I’ve said more than once, the issues you describe Schenn as having are VERY common among 3rd pair D.

    Do we all want to have Chris Pronger locking down our third pair? Of course. But because that is just fantasy teams have to settle for guys like Schenn.

    Schenn is FAR from the worst third pair D man. In fact, he is a pretty damn good third pair D.

    I probably wouldn’t have gave him the second year on his contract though. So its not a perfect signing.

    I get what you were saying but his role has been a shutdown type defenseman but he’s pretty much the opposite of that. Typically 3rd pairing guys while usually very limited offensively at least are good at something like suppressing shots which I’m pretty sure Schenn was terrible at. The fact an Analytics guy is going against the numbers and is hoping to establish a new role and identity for a player who struggles across the board is a reach IMO.

    If he was on a training camp tryout great. But to sign him 2 years is crazy. But hey there is always hope!

    Edit: Found an article of a guy who not only likes the signing but thinks Schenn could be a TOP PAIR GUY next year! *sigh

    http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/James-Tanner/Luke-Schenn-Top-Pairing-Defenseman-Its-Not-as-Crazy-as-It-Sounds/200/78318

  112. Centre of attention says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: I get what you were saying but his role has been a shutdown type defenseman but he’s pretty much the opposite of that. Typically 3rd pairing guys while usually very limited offensively at least are good at something like suppressing shots which I’m pretty sure Schenn was terrible at. The fact an Analytics guy is going against the numbers and is hoping to establish a new role and identity for a player who struggles across the board is a reach IMO. 2 year contract does indeed make it even worse. But hey there’s always hope!

    I think Schenns numbers vs 3rd pair comp are fine. If he plays higher up in the line up, that’s when he starts getting caved. He has spent a lot of time above where he should be, thus resulting in bad numbers.

    If they use him in the right system and the right spot (third pair) he will do fine. There is obviously some risk with this kind of experiment, but its not the worst move Chayka could have done.

    You’ve succeeded in making me view the signing in a more negative light though, so kudos to you. 😛

  113. Drew says:

    G Money:
    Chayka / Schenn.

    His comment when asked about why he signed someone that most analytics suggest is not that good a player, he basically said he believes that Schenn’s strengths fit their needs and so he will do much better in the Arizona system.

    “We feel like we can put players in the right environment, the right structure and the right system…. and get their games to the next level” and “ … It’s not like he needs to do 10 things well. He just needs to do three or four really well to be effective for us.”

    Will be interesting to see how it turns out, if they indeed made the decision based on some system and player assessment methods more sophisticated than what outsiders are using, or whether it’s just a case of a rookie GM getting rooked.

    I am stunned, so this means positioning a player (employee) so they have the best chance of success rather than just tossing them in the pool???

    seems like a sharp cookie will be a good watch.

  114. Centre of attention says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    That article is silly and the author should feel silly. Schenn is a serviceable bottom pair D, nothing more nothing less.

    Schenn is replacement level, making the second year of his deal a potential issue.

  115. SwedishPoster says:

    G Money:
    Chayka / Schenn.

    His comment when asked about why he signed someone that most analytics suggest is not that good a player, he basically said he believes that Schenn’s strengths fit their needs and so he will do much better in the Arizona system.

    “We feel like we can put players in the right environment, the right structure and the right system…. and get their games to the next level” and “ … It’s not like he needs to do 10 things well. He just needs to do three or four really well to be effective for us.”

    Will be interesting to see how it turns out, if they indeed made the decision based on some system and player assessment methods more sophisticated than what outsiders are using, or whether it’s just a case of a rookie GM getting rooked.

    So what he’s really saying is that if put in a room with 30 NHL GMs he’d be the smartest? I’m sure this kind of thinking has been discussed around here before in regards to the management of an other team, now which team might this have been…

  116. maxwell_mischief says:

    I know it’s slow season
    but it’s like each of the last 20 posts have been the same post
    with one of 3 lists, and one of a few quotes, just chopped up, presented differently

    blah blah vertseeg blah blah
    blah blah puljujarvi is 18 didnt ya know blah blah
    *insert list of names*
    “stauffer”
    blah blah dont trust the russian blah blah
    we wait!

  117. maxwell_mischief says:

    sorry
    that comes from a place of usually being impressed with how fresh you always are

  118. maxwell_mischief says:

    love the blog

  119. PDO says:

    DRFNsuperstar: Ovechkin and Carlson/Green disagree.

    They’re all righties being set up by a lefty.

    I’m not sure I understand what you’re saying.

    Yakupov is a lefty and needs a RH passer to set him up, just like those righties need a LH (Backstrom) to set them up.

  120. Centre of attention says:

    maxwell_mischief:
    I know it’s slow season
    but it’s like each of the last 20 posts have been the same post
    with one of 3 lists, and one of a few quotes, just chopped up, presented differently

    blah blah vertseeg blah blah
    blah blah puljujarvi is 18 didnt ya know blah blah
    *insert list of names*
    “stauffer”
    blah blah dont trust the russian blah blah
    we wait!

    I mean, it’s July 26th.

    What kind of breaking news / enthralling conversation did you want to partake in? I’ll take what I can get at this time of year 🙂

  121. rickithebear says:

    15-16 PPGF/60
    Mcdavid 7.86 +1.53 GD/60
    RNH 7.48 +1.15 GD/60
    Letestu 7.29 + 0.96 GD/60
    Pouliot 7.12 + 0.79 GD/60
    Lucic 7.07 + 0.74 GD/60
    Eberle 7.00 + 0.67 GD/60
    Lucic 6.98 + 0.65 GD/60

    PKGA/60: under Tmac
    Reinhart 1.73 PKTOI 2.40 +3.93 GD/60
    Klefbom 2.63 PKTOI 3.80 +2.53 GD/60
    Davidson 2.39 PKTOI 4.02+ 2.31 GD/60
    Hendricks 2.23 PKTOI 4.35 +1.98 GD/6
    Larsson 2.89 PKTOI 4.95 +1.38 GD/60 3yr NJD
    Mcdavid .77 PKTOI 5.21 +1.12 GD/60
    Pakarinen 1.18 PKTOI 5.72 +0.61 GD/60
    Letestu 2.45 PKTOI 6.26 +0.07 GD/60
    Lander 1.93 PKTOI 6.63 -0.30 GD/60

  122. stevezie says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: I don’t see how “Wiz” is much of an improvement over Fayne either but at least he is solid when healthy

    Just the powerplay.

  123. LMHF#1 says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes:

    Are u guys listening to yourselves? Those 2 are fringe NHLERS at best who have underachieved their whole careers. NO they are NOT good pickups because they are lousy hockey players. I don’t see how “Wiz” is much of an improvement over Fayne either but at least he is solid when healthy.

    Teams add “fringe” guys every year that wind up making an impact. It’s part of doing everything you can to have a good team. You take a couple stabs.

    Wouldn’t sign Rundblad though.

  124. Gordie Wayne says:

    Ville Pokka is listed in potiential RHD…what is the possibility of getting him out of Chicago for a pick or prospect considering who they have to protect:

    PROTECTED: Patrick Kane (NMC), Jonathan Toews (NMC), Marian Hossa (NMC), Duncan Keith (NMC), Brent Seabrook (NMC), Corey Crawford (NMC), Niklas Hjalmarsson (NMC), Artem Anisimov (NMC) and Trevor van Riemsdyk

    TOP PLAYERS EXPOSED: Brian Campbell, Ville Pokka, Marcus Kruger, Scott Darling and Mark McNeill

    Or does Chicago just wait until the year plays out before making a decision on Pokka?

  125. kinger_OIL says:

    Centre of attention: I mean, it’s July 26th.

    What kind of breaking news / enthralling conversation did you want to partake in? I’ll take what I can get at this time of year

    – Which is another reason why LT needs to take a break, like every other working person in North America. 365 days of blogging (and everything else he does), does not a man make…

    – Get guest hosts: repost some of your favourites, but take some time LT: you deserve it!

  126. spoiler says:

    Woodguy:
    Interesting Home/Away splits for Gaudreau.

    He’s just coming off his ELC so you “expect” him to be better at home due to match ups, but its still kinda stark:

    PlayerCompConfDFF%RelComp
    Johnny Gaudreau Elite Home 1.9%
    Johnny Gaudreau Elite Away -0.4%
    Johnny Gaudreau Muddle Home 1.9%
    Johnny Gaudreau Muddle Away -2.2%
    Johnny Gaudreau Dregs Home5.0%
    Johnny Gaudreau Dregs Away-1.7%

    Now compare that to Tarasenko, who’s been kicked around as a comparable:

    PlayerCompConfDFF%RelComp
    Vladimir Tarasenko Elite Home 7.9%
    Vladimir Tarasenko Elite Away-0.3%
    Vladimir Tarasenko Muddle Home -0.4%
    Vladimir Tarasenko Muddle Away -1.4%
    Vladimir Tarasenko Dregs Home 5.5%
    Vladimir Tarasenko Dregs Away2.1%

    This is a little weird because the ability to shelter or go PvP is already built into your bands. That is, if you’re facing the elite, it shouldn’t matter whether it’s at home or away. Only the amount of minutes you might get doing so should change.

    The large difference of success between these H/A splits strikes me as intuitively strange.

  127. spoiler says:

    G Money:
    Ducey,

    To reiterate the point (it is important and also can be confusing):

    – at the individual level of any given faceoff, the location of a faceoff (and whether you win it) makes a tremendous difference to the expected results shortly thereafter.Lose a d zone faceoff and you will indeed get hammered on the shot metrics

    – but at the level of all faceoffs for any given player, the zone starts are actually a small fraction of the overall number of shifts

    As I noted above, even for a player considered as buried as Larsson, <14% of his shifts start with a coach mandated d zone face off.So even with a lousy 47% FO win rate, that means just ~8% of Larsson’s shifts start with a d zone faceoff loss.

    If you adjust his poor possession numbers for that, they just don’t change very much.

    That’s consistent with most studies done on trying to quantify the effect of zone starts.

    Thank you for this post (and the prior one, which for some reason I can’t get a reply-to posted).

    I fear way too much emphasis is being placed on Zone Starts. And I’ve been arguing this point far too long to give up now lol.

  128. G Money says:

    spoiler,

    Bear in mind that this version of the WM metrics only looks at forwards as the measure of qualcomp. The idea is to use WM to help give qualcomp ratings to defenders, then rerun the whole thing until it converges (we hope) on a set of results for all players.

    With forwards, I think the more important QualComp matchup is with the other teams defense (so we may very well end up using an asymmetric system, where forwards QualComp is based on the five players they face, while defenders are against primarily the opposing forward line).

    Not that the forward line matchup is unimportant, just that when you look at the post-game matchups (I run head2head TOI/CF/DFF tables for every player vs ever other player for every Oiler game), usually it appears that the other coach is trying harder (or maybe it’s just easier) to match specific D pairs vs forward lines.

    So IMO the WoodMoney metrics right now are most useful when looking at defenders, but I’m more cautious with the forward numbers.

    It will be interesting to see how the home/away splits change once we get to the next version.

  129. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: This is a little weird because the ability to shelter or go PvP is already built into your bands.That is, if you’re facing the elite, it shouldn’t matter whether it’s at home or away.Only the amount of minutes you might get doing so should change.

    The large difference of success between these H/A splits strikes me as intuitively strange.

    Last change is everything though.

    Situationally I would try to get my young offensive players on the ice against the best forwards only when it’s beneficial.

    Ozone starts, icings, 3rd pairing D on the ice.

    Remember at WoodMoney is only elite forwards right now.

    When we add the Dmen it will change a lot of things.

    G mentioned that the Dmen metrics look more “intuitive” than the forwards at this point.

    That probably changes when we figure out how to rate the Dmen and add them in.

  130. Woodguy says:

    spoiler,

    Yeah, what he said

  131. Woodguy says:

    spoiler,

    I’m bringing up Larsson’s ZS because they are the most extreme in the NHL.

    There’s the left side of the distribution curve, then a flat highway from Lloyminster to The Battlefords, then Larsson/Greene.

    They are so extreme that I’m not sure “normal” adjustment metrics handles it properly.

    You also see patterns in the data.

    Dmen who have significantly negative relative zone starts just don’t have great relative shot suppression metrics.

    So when they do, and the guy almost off the graph does too, it’s important.

  132. Mr DeBakey says:

    OilClog:
    I’d take Hendricks over Letestu at all times.

    Plays C well enough for the forth, or atleast equal to if not greater then what Letestu offers.

    He didn’t seem too slow crushing Ekblad

    You consistently put absolutely fuckin stupid comments on this blog.
    And this one tops them all – bleating happily about an absolute cheapshot.

  133. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: Last change is everything though.

    But that last change is already built into the opposition band. However I see what GMon is saying, that we can’t tell yet what D pair the Fs are facing… which can affect Johnny Cocky’s numbers Home and Away.

  134. spoiler says:

    Mr DeBakey: You consistently put absolutely fuckin stupid comments on this blog.
    And this one tops them all – bleating happily about an absolute cheapshot.

    +1

  135. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: Dmen who have significantly negative relative zone starts just don’t have great relative shot suppression metrics.
    So when they do, and the guy almost off the graph does too, it’s important.

    Agreed, as far as the statement goes.

    NJD could also just be a really shitty team, reliant on sitting back in the trap and waiting for the error or odd man break. They seem to generate a lot of DZone Starts in the first place, and they have to go to someone, so why not the hoss you feel is most reliant defensively. They also seem to be a shot suppressing team in the first place.

    And I realize this is where the REL comes into play, too, but I feel we need to be careful, if this means adjusting the data, since this game state is a small part of the game.

    Sorry, don’t mean to hassle you guys. I realize this is still a work in progress, and I miss a lot of the intermediary updates you both post.

  136. Little Poteet says:

    Woodguy,

    What would Maidstone zone starts look like then?

  137. matt says:

    JP can go to the AHL. That is a strategic advantage that should be exploited for (a) cap and (b) risk mitigation reasons. It is an option other teams do not have. Specifically, it makes it easy to sign Hudler. Doing so would minimize a lot of risk. The dollars are there, or can be found. Hudler provides insurance all over the roster if any of Yak, Leon, RNH or JP under-perform or are injured. And, in the event all are in perfect health and playing above expectations / above Hudler, then he sits a bit. It would be a happy problem to have.

  138. Lowetide says:

    Little Poteet:
    Woodguy,

    What would Maidstone zone starts look like then?

    It isn’t even a stop on the main highway anymore. Sad hoe.

  139. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide: It isn’t even a stop on the main highway anymore. Sad hoe.

    Are you sure you know what you’re saying here?

  140. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy:
    spoiler,

    I’m bringing up Larsson’s ZS because they are the most extreme in the NHL.

    There’s the left side of the distribution curve, then a flat highway from Lloyminster to The Battlefords, then Larsson/Greene.

    They are so extreme that I’m not sure “normal” adjustment metrics handles it properly.

    You also see patterns in the data.

    Dmen who have significantly negative relative zone starts just don’t have great relative shot suppression metrics.

    So when they do, and the guy almost off the graph does too, it’s important.

    Hello Woodguy, hope you’re enjoying the summertime wherever you are.

    With regards to what you’re saying about Larson, does it mean he’s any good? Because truthfully whether it’s the whisky or the terminology – I’m not getting it.

    When slobs like me climb on board, you’re in the clover. :p

  141. hunter1909 says:

    Kassian, Lucic, Nurse….LOL

    Maroon’s pretty game.

    What other Oilers can we expect to step up in the team toughness department next season?

  142. hunter1909 says:

    Maybe Yakupov scores 30 goals next season with 150 pim.

    Full beast mode, he focusses his energy 100% in the correct direction and astonishes everyone not named hunter1909 and the handful of yak supporters on Lowetide.

  143. hunter1909 says:

    Now that we’ve finally dealt with the Taylor Hall distraction, we can all focus on Yakupov.

  144. thehop says:

    Mr DeBakey: You consistently put absolutely fuckin stupid comments on this blog.
    And this one tops them all – bleating happily about an absolute cheapshot.

    Get off your high horse man.

    In case you didn’t watch that game… Taylor Hall got laid out by Gudbranson earlier in the game..by the eye a dirty hit but Hall came back… Hendricks lays out Ekblad…was not penalized and Ekblad came back to play shortly after the hit.

    That how the game is played.

    I don’t think you have a clue of what a cheap shot is…. Then again you feel compelled to disrespect a fellow blogger because of his opinion on the matter and then take it a step further by insinuating that his commentary is “consistently stupid”…

    That’s a cheap shot if I’ve ever seen one

  145. Mr DeBakey says:

    thehop: That how the game is played.
    I don’t think you have a clue of what a cheap shot is…

    “Driving Ekblad face-first into the boards with significant impact – This is Boarding.”
    http://video.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=925734

    Thanks for playing.

  146. thehop says:

    What game are we playing? You see it one way, I see it another…

    The point is… You think you are entitled to tell people that their posts are consistently fucking stupid.

    You aren’t

    Thanks for playing

  147. Lowetide says:

    I will allow all posts before this one because I am late to the party and it seems no one has gone too far over the line. That said, in the interests of getting things back on course, I will delete posts after this one that continue the spat. Thanks so much for understanding.

  148. G Money says:

    t’s all fun and games untl someone loses an

  149. Mr DeBakey says:

    Lowetide: I will delete posts after this one that continue the spat. Thanks so much for understanding.

    No
    Thank-you for your understanding.
    Its all my fault.

    I apologize for insinuating things about that commenter.
    I feel bad.
    How bad, you ask.
    So bad that I feel like I’ve just missed four games with concussion symptoms, four games in which my team went winless, after being boarded by a 34-year-old with pop in his game.

    I promise not to insinuate anymore.
    And, again, I apologize.

    I’m sorry…..

  150. Lowetide says:

    Clever, Mr. 🙂

  151. Oilspill says:

    Barrie wants term. We already have term on the backend. And a couple of guys who will need raises in a couple of years. What we need and what is logical are miles apart.

    russ99: Ference is off the books on LTIR on opening day. As long as we have the cap room to carry him that first day, we can use his cap room for other players.

  152. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    @FriedgeHNIC:

    “Tyson Barrie arb:
    team offer: $4m & $4.25M. Player ask: $6M for one year”

    $4 Mill is a pretty lowball offer for a Dman who averages 12 goals and 50 points last couple of seasons. DeKeyser got $5 Mill a year expect Barrie to get similar.

  153. Pechetr says:

    JimmyV1965,

    None taken. No knuckle dragging required. Not once did I imply TH wasn’t a very good, talented player.

  154. Cameron says:

    Re: Hudler

    Buyer beware, in his last season with Calgary/Florida he; lost a step, lost his spot on the top line, fought through a barrage of injuries, was not considerd to be worth re-signing by Cgy, got traded to Florida where he floundered, and all round looked like he was done.

    I love the guy, but I see a top 5 finish in the Swiss Elite League scoring race in his
    near future.

    Calgary had three significant weaknesses last year;

    -Goaltending (league worst)
    -Scoring depth beyond the young core
    -Brodie got hurt early on

    Calgary jettisoned all their goalies (Hiller, Ramo, Ortio, all gone) for new ones (Elliott, Johnson, Riddich) who all have (much) better numbers than who they replace.

    Calgary added a Troy Brouwer (meh), and have a raft of young forwards (Tkachuk, Jankowski, Pribyll, Shinkaruk, etc) who might contribute offensively throughout the lineup, and bounceback years from Ferland and Bouma would help as well.

    Brodie appears to be healthy and ready to go.

    There are still gaps on the roster (desperately need a 2way Hossa/Puljujarvi type for 1st line RW), and some still to be hoped for development (Bennett especially, but Monahan and Gaudreau may have another gear to reach), but I’d say the Flames attacked their weaknesses well.

    In contrast, the Oilers rebalanced the D, but lost Hall, and still need to add 1-2 more NHL Dmen to become genuinely scarey. An opinion I believe many here share.

    So, no surprise, but I have Calgary finishing ahead of the Oilers. If Bennett goes off, well ahead.

  155. stevezie says:

    Cameron,

    Actually i agree with all of this.

  156. matt says:

    Cameron: Buyer beware, in his last season with Calgary/Florida he; lost a step, lost his spot on the top line, fought through a barrage of injuries, was not considerd to be worth re-signing by Cgy, got traded to Florida where he floundered, and all round looked like he was done.

    Not worth $3.5-4M/2 to play 2/3 line C/RW as needed?

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca