ANOTHER GRETZKY?

by Lowetide

”Everyone has a five-year plan, and so did we. It’s not like it fell exactly into place, but we were adding certain elements to get to this point.” -Peter Chiarelli, Behind the Moves (June 2011)

The Flaming rumor is interesting (Guy doesn’t break a lot of NHL stuff but his sources in hockey are outstanding). Gretzky is director of amateur scouting for the Bruins and of course has strong connections to Peter Chiarelli. The people I know in the industry tell me Gretzky is a bright guy who did good work with his staff in Boston (the Coyotes years were difficult, not sure about the dynamic there).

How many people does a general manager need to help in evaluation of players? He would need a capable amateur scouting director and staff; a pro scouting staff, that would include NHL observers and also men who could scout Sweden, Finland, Russia et cetera. Plus you would need an assistant GM and then one or two men who would form the internal brain trust. Right? I believe there will be another shoe to drop if this story has legs.

I wrote on this subject last week:

  • One of the things this blog remains concerned about is Peter Chiarelli’s staff. If you drop by the Oilers management page, the names and faces staring back at you look similar to the last regime and the regime previous to that and the one before that one, too. If we are to believe the Edmonton Oilers, the forensic files found that the true culprits for the last decade were Dallas Eakins, Stu MacGregor, Morey Gare, Brad Davis, Kent Hawley, Billy Moores—and Tyler Dellow.
  • I am not buying it. Peter Chiarelli is the general manager of the Edmonton Oilers, an extremely difficult job with enormous pressure. I hope this blog has established over these years that we find no joy in watching people lose their jobs, but at the same time that linked management page is atrocious based on what has happened in the last decade. Mr. Chiarelli, consider tearing down that management page—for your own sake.
  • Source

If the Gretzky hiring occurs, we can assume someone is moving out from the inner circle, the brain trust. I am not going to guess—if you have been following the Oilers for any length of time you know where the smart money is being laid.

CHIARELLI’S BIG EDMONTON MOVES

  • Trading for Griffin Reinhart
  • Trading for Cam Talbot
  • Signing Andrej Sekera
  • Trading Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson
  • Signing Milan Lucic

It would be ridiculous to imply these moves are anyone else’s responsibility—this is Peter Chiarelli’s Edmonton track record. That said, replacing some of the inner circle management in Edmonton is an idea that is long overdue. We hope they choose well, and assume the new hire will know why we have a Gretzky drive in the city.

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Moose

Keith Gretzky for Lowe, MacT and Howson! Finally the 3-for-1 you’ve been shouting for LT!!!

dustrock

Ugh. His name is Gretzky so must be okay. More OBC stuff this time from Chiarelli.

Will be worth it if Mac T and Howson are gone though.

Woodguy

Moose:
Keith Gretzky for Lowe, MacT and Howson! Finally the 3-for-1 you’ve been shouting for LT!!!

*strong clapping*

Woodguy

dustrock:
Ugh. His name is Gretzky so must be okay. More OBC stuff this time from Chiarelli.

Will be worth it if Mac T and Howson are gone though.

Mangers in all industries will hire people they know.

That’s kinda why the whole “its not what you know, but who you know that gets you a job” thing has been true for over 50 years.

I have no idea as to Gretzky’s qualifications but I can recite MacT and Howson’s lack there of in my sleep.

If this happens I can’t see it being a negative just based on who moves out.

dustrock

Lowetide: Boston (

True. Phoenix years were lean.

Someone want to explain Bruins’ draft last year. Was that Gretzky? Because he’s insane if so.

magisterrex

Bet MacT gets a promotion to Senior VP of Something.

Moose

I wonder what Bill Scott’s role within the org is at this point. I thought he did some pretty good things in OKC, but then it seemed like he got lost in the shuffle when all the generals men came back aboard (post-Tamby).

Centre of attention

Lowetide:
I believe Gretzky’s first season as scouting director in Boston was the Pastrnak draft, they have some good kids coming behind him. Of course, if he is coming here as AGM that would not be as germane to the conversation.

He would be working with bob green too right? Or is thaylt the guy getting fired?! I have actually liked his two drafts.

Moose

magisterrex:
Bet MacT gets a promotion to Senior VP of Something.

It’s a strange setup. MacT is already listed as Sr VP of Hockey Ops on the team page, Howson as Sr VP of Player Personnel and Bill Scott as AGM. But nobody believes those guys actually act in any of those roles.

stevezie

dustrock: Someone want to explain Bruins’ draft last year. Was that Gretzky? Because he’s insane if so.

I think the last two years were both pretty nutty.

It’s impossible to argue for job security for current management (i have some lingering Howson sympathies) but hard to get excited about this either.

Chiarelli, who has been okay since he got here, wants a to bring in a guy he knows who has a mixed record.

Makes sense, I’m not mad, but meh.

stevezie

Woodguy: Mangers in all industries will hire people they know.

Do kids still say totes? Because totes.

Makes sense too, most jobs aren’t that hard to be okay at with training.

It would be nice to excel, but whatever. That’s half timing and a third luck.

Oilspill

If Nurse goes down our defense is pretty soft. Penalty kill is critical in order to win as much as power play. We didn’t get a PP guy and didn’t resign one of our best PK guys.

Woodguy

magisterrex:
Bet MacT gets a promotion to Senior VP of Something.

He’s already Sr. Vice President of Hockey Operations : http://oilers.nhl.com/club/page.htm?id=81299

Woodguy

stevezie: Do kids still say totes? Because totes.

Makes sense too, most jobs aren’t that hard to be okay at withtraining.

It would be nice to excel, but whatever. That’s half timing and a third luck.

I’m not saying its right, just that its not exclusive to Oiler management.

Woodguy

Oilspill:
If Nurse goes down our defense is pretty soft. Penalty kill is critical in order to win as much as power play. We didn’t get a PP guy and didn’t resign one of our best PK guys.

Oilers Dmen Expected Goals Against/60 4v5
(xGA/60 is a better than shots against per 60 as it weight the shots on type (slap, wrist etc) and location.)

Player xGA60
GRIFFIN.REINHART 4.09
ANDREJ.SEKERA 5.24
MARK.FAYNE 6.58
BRANDON.DAVIDSON 6.68
DARNELL.NURSE 6.78
ERIC.GRYBA 6.97
OSCAR.KLEFBOM 7.15
JUSTIN.SCHULTZ 7.83

Based on this metric, I ‘d argue that Gryba wasn’t one of the better PK defenders.

Really surprised where GR ranked.

"Steve Smith"

Woodguy,

I think you misunderstood Magister Rex – he was saying that MacT’s new title would literally be “Senior VP of Something”. They may give him “This and That”, if they think he’s up to both portfolios.

G Money

Woodguy,

Note that one of the things I’m cautious about using xGA with is for the power play / penalty kill.

I *hope* that Manny’s methodology runs regressions to calculate xGF for EV vs PP / PK separately, because they are different enough situationally that a ‘dangerous’ shot in one might not be very dangerous in the other, or vice versa.

I’d also guess that his regression based methodology is more sensitive to that situational effect, which makes it all the more important to run multiple times. (It’s been a while since I read the details of his methodology, so I can’t remember off the top of my head whether he mentioned he does or not).

I’d guess that situational effect will impact xGF moreso than DangerFen, which has the advantage of simplicity which usually goes hand in hand with situational robustness, but even I don’t show DangerFen for PP / PK for that reason.

JD_Wry

Lowetide: Senior VP of European Hallway Celebration would be a dandy title.

PoHO of the Las Vegas Lost Wages would be ideal.

G Money

Lowetide: Senior VP of European Hallway Celebration would be a dandy title.

If I understand the Oiler culture, he’d likely prefer Sr VP of Stoic Canadian Cellys.

PunjabiOil

Move doesn’t make much sense, given his track record in Phoenix.

When companies hire externally, it’s usually for one of these reasons:

1. There is an organizational need/vacancy to fill a certain position.
2. The individual is pegged to bring in value to the organization above what internal personnel is projected.
3. There is a need, but not a vital need, and management knows said individual and there is a hope/desire he/she can bring value to organization above internal personnel.

Where does Keith Gretzky fit in?

I don’t know.

It’s possible he will be hired and no one from existing staff will be let go.

Chiarelli seems comfortable with him. He was an amateur scout for Boston beginning in 2011, and was promoted to director of amateur scouting in August 2013. Pastranak pick ca be credited to him. However, the 2015 draft was an absolute bust based on early returns, especially given they had 13, 14, and 15th overall selections.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/teams/dr00004919.html

http://espn.go.com/boston/nhl/story/_/id/9586511/boston-bruins-promote-keith-gretzky-hall-famer-brother-amateur-scouting-director

His track record in Phoenix is poor as well.

Not sure how he’s an upgrade over previous directors (MacGregor, Prendergast), how how he adds value to this organization?

Why not roll with Bob Greene who has a track record in junior (both Medicine Hat and Edmonton Oil Kings)?

It’s quite sad, actually.

PunjabiOil

An another note:

Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer 1h1 hour ago

While Antoine Vermette will draw interest around the NHL my guess is that the Oilers are more likely to spend/add on D then C at this time
9 retweets 22 likes

_____________

Not much out there other than James Wwsniewski.

dustrock

The 2015 draft was madness. A drunk draft attendee could have done better.

You could argue the Gretzky hiring as “it’s who you know” except that we’ve been OBC’d to death in this franchise.

What value is Gretzky bringing?

Ryan

Woodguy: Oilers Dmen Expected Goals Against/60 4v5
(xGA/60 is a better than shots against per 60 as it weight the shots on type (slap, wrist etc) and location.)

PlayerxGA60
GRIFFIN.REINHART4.09
ANDREJ.SEKERA5.24
MARK.FAYNE6.58
BRANDON.DAVIDSON6.68
DARNELL.NURSE6.78
ERIC.GRYBA6.97
OSCAR.KLEFBOM7.15
JUSTIN.SCHULTZ7.83

Based on this metric, I ‘d argue that Gryba wasn’t one of the better PK defenders.

Really surprised where GR ranked.

My first thought was that while I generally love Woodguy’s analysis, his fatal flaw is that he’s never came across a sample size he’s deemed too small.

My second thought…

GR had a 4v5/60 of 1.37. That’s not in the realm of reality.

Now either GR is the best penalty killer the league has ever experienced or something is awry.

I suspect a combination of small sample, luck, second powerplay comp…

Edit, he had a 96.67 sv % at 4v5. That’s likely to continue. 🙂

The year prior his Ga/60 4v5 was 13.9 or worst on the NYI.

Oilspill

Woodguy: Oilers Dmen Expected Goals Against/60 4v5
(xGA/60 is a better than shots against per 60 as it weight the shots on type (slap, wrist etc) and location.)

PlayerxGA60
GRIFFIN.REINHART4.09
ANDREJ.SEKERA5.24
MARK.FAYNE6.58
BRANDON.DAVIDSON6.68
DARNELL.NURSE6.78
ERIC.GRYBA6.97
OSCAR.KLEFBOM7.15
JUSTIN.SCHULTZ7.83

Based on this metric, I ‘d argue that Gryba wasn’t one of the better PK defenders.

Really surprised where GR ranked.

If you rely on metrics.

magisterrex

“Steve Smith”:
Woodguy,

I think you misunderstood Magister Rex – he was saying that MacT’s new title would literally be “Senior VP of Something”.They may give him “This and That”, if they think he’s up to both portfolios.

That’s a bingo.
I should have specified something more like what LT said.

Ryan

PunjabiOil:
An another note:

Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer 1h1 hour ago

While Antoine Vermette will draw interest around the NHL my guess is that the Oilers are more likely to spend/add on D then C at this time
9 retweets 22 likes

_____________

Not much out there other than James Wwsniewski.

Maybe the Oilers could package a deal offering a combination of some of Nurse, Reinhart, Musil, Oesterle, Dillon Simpson, and Joey Lallegia for a Justin Faulk? 🙂

Woodguy

G Money:
Woodguy,

Note that one of the things I’m cautious about using xGA with is for the power play / penalty kill.

I *hope* that Manny’s methodology runs regressions to calculate xGF for EV vs PP / PK separately, because they are different enough situationally that a ‘dangerous’ shot in one might not be very dangerous in the other, or vice versa.

I’d also guess that his regression based methodology is more sensitive to that situational effect, which makes it all the more important to run multiple times.(It’s been a while since I read the details of his methodology, so I can’t remember off the top of my head whether he mentioned he does or not).

I’d guess that situational effect will impact xGF moreso than DangerFen, which has the advantage of simplicity which usually goes hand in hand with situational robustness, but even I don’t show DangerFen for PP / PK for that reason.

I’ll check with Manny.

Even with the differences, intuitively xGA will still be better than SA/60 simply due to location.

The extra open looks aren’t accounted for and that would help, as would screens, but those would help 5v5 as well.

Mr DeBakey

Oilspill: If you rely on metrics.

https://youtu.be/z-CqFh7xvDQ

Woodguy

Oilspill: If you rely on metrics.

Oh, I missed that I was replying to Oilspill who remembers where and how every shot taken by every NHLer was taken for the past 5 years.

Carry on.

frjohnk

Woodguy: Oilers Dmen Expected Goals Against/60 4v5
(xGA/60 is a better than shots against per 60 as it weight the shots on type (slap, wrist etc) and location.)

PlayerxGA60
GRIFFIN.REINHART4.09
ANDREJ.SEKERA5.24
MARK.FAYNE6.58
BRANDON.DAVIDSON6.68
DARNELL.NURSE6.78
ERIC.GRYBA6.97
OSCAR.KLEFBOM7.15
JUSTIN.SCHULTZ7.83

Based on this metric, I ‘d argue that Gryba wasn’t one of the better PK defenders.

Really surprised where GR ranked.

What’s league average and what did Larsson post?
I’m on my EBERLE phone.

Woodguy

Ryan: My first thought was that while I generally love Woodguy’s analysis, his fatal flaw is that he’s never came across a sample size he’s deemed too small.

My second thought…

GR had a 4v5/60 of 1.37.That’s not in the realm of reality.

Now either GR is the best penalty killer the league has ever experienced or something is awry.

I suspect a combination of small sample, luck, second powerplay comp…

Edit, he had a 96.67 sv % at 4v5.That’s likely to continue.

The year prior his Ga/60 4v5 was 13.9 or worst on the NYI.

xGA/60 is independent of SV%.

If you’re going to shit talk me at least know what I’m talking about.

Woodguy

G Money,

Woodguy ‏@Woodguy55 5m5 minutes ago

@MannyElk Did you run separate regressions to calculate xGA for 5v5, PP, and PK?
0 retweets 0 likes

Emmanuel Perry
‏@MannyElk

@Woodguy55 No, PP is a boolean variable.

My algebra is rusty/non-existent , but this basically means that he used the same regression, but the PP was lumped separately right?

G Money

Mr DeBakey,

I think I’m beginning to understand his pen name. It’s not a reference to the Oilers, but a reference to an actual event*.

“Hey, the SCADA system was showing massive pressure fluctuations on the pipeline segment about 90km from Peace River all night! Why didn’t you hit the alarm!?!”

“Skay da? Hoozat?”

“Huh? What the hell’s the matter with you? That’s the system that records and displays all the flow and pressure sensors on our pipelines. You’re supposed to be monitoring it. It’s the backbone of our entire optimization and HSE program.”

“Monitoring? You means it like measures things and I have to watch those? Like metrics?”

“Yeah. How can you possibly not know this by now? The metrics are showing huge pressure problems. We almost for sure have a spill on our hands.”

“Bah! Fool! Who use metrics! I seen that pipeline good just last week! Spent almost ten minutes!”

“WTF? You can’t see a pipeline good. That fucker is hundreds of kilometres long, and carries almost 200,000 barrels a day!”

“Metrics er useless, dummy. I know bettern you. It’s obvierse to anyones. Smrt guys like me who know everythin’ about pipelines know only fools use metrics.”

“Jesus F Christ. We’re in deep shit.”

*One massive oil spill later*

“So… Mr. ‘metrics are useless’ … got any thoughts on the massive spill we just had that we could have prevented IF YOU’D PAID ATTENTION TO THE FUCKING METRICS?”

“What? I didn’t see any oil, so therefore there wunt no spill. It’s eyes that matter, not your stupid numbers! How many times I gotta tell you!”

“You know what? You’re union so I can’t fire you. But from now on, I want you to name yourself after this incident, just to remind everyone not to listen to a word you say or put you in charge of anything important. Now get the fuck out of here.”

“Hmmf. All u stupids. I gonna go on Lowetide and explain those dummies why they doan need metrics either.”

*Only the spill is true, the rest is made up. Any resemblance to any actual Lowetide poster is purely coincidental.

G Money

Woodguy,

It means special teams were a categorical variable in the regression. So in theory he should have differentiated results for PP/PK than for EV, which is certainly much better than not including it at all.

I’m of the opinion based on my review of shot locations and probabilities that special teams are an entirely different animal, so I will continue to be skeptical that that alone will give you good results. And as always, is entirely reliant on actually working the right process for multiple regression, which … well, you know.

Woodguy

Same list of Dmen 4v5.

TOI 4v5

Player TOI
DARNELL.NURSE 150.11
ANDREJ.SEKERA 139.44
BRANDON.DAVIDSON 135.12
ERIC.GRYBA 126.21
MARK.FAYNE 122.27
OSCAR.KLEFBOM 81.81
JUSTIN.SCHULTZ 56.45
GRIFFIN.REINHART 50.86

Shots Against/60 4v5
Player SA60
GRIFFIN.REINHART 35.39
ANDREJ.SEKERA 41.31
MARK.FAYNE 47.11
DARNELL.NURSE 49.96
BRANDON.DAVIDSON 50.18
OSCAR.KLEFBOM 53.54
ERIC.GRYBA 56.57
JUSTIN.SCHULTZ 57.4

4v5 Fenwick Against/60 (I like Fenwick as a PK metric as it gives credit for blocked shots)
Player FA60
GRIFFIN.REINHART 51.91
ANDREJ.SEKERA 53.36
MARK.FAYNE 62.81
DARNELL.NURSE 71.15
ERIC.GRYBA 74.64
BRANDON.DAVIDSON 75.49
OSCAR.KLEFBOM 76.27
JUSTIN.SCHULTZ 79.72

Note to Ryan: Both shots and Fenwick are SV% independent too

Woodguy

G Money:
Woodguy,

It means special teams were a categorical variable in the regression.So in theory he should have differentiated results for PP/PK than for EV, which is certainly much better than not including it at all.

I’m of the opinion based on my review of shot locations and probabilities that special teams are an entirely different animal, so I will continue to be skeptical that that alone will give you good results.And as always, is entirely reliant on actually working the right process for multiple regression, which … well, you know.

Yeah, probably best.

Should crack the whip on our regression specialist to do that for PP/PK DFF.

Woodguy

@TSNBobMcKenzie
Just saw some Keith Gretzky to EDM as AGM rumors. It’s my understanding he will, in fact, be joining EDM in that capacity in near future.

Woodguy

Lowetide:
Note: Woodguy posted the McKenzie item before me, but I changed his time so mine shows first. I am very immature, but promise I have not done this before.

My post is SV% independent too.

Woodguy

frjohnk: What’s league average and what did Larsson post?
I’m on my EBERLE phone.

League median (100+ min on PK for Dmen) for xGA/60 is 6.25, Larsson is 6.74

Also,

When I sorted the list by xGA/60 I noticed a lot of Dmen who *I know* play 2PP populated the top of the list (least xGA/60)

That makes intuitive sense as the 1PP is usually more loaded with talent than 2PP, so 2PK will probably put up better numbers.

Probably plays a role in Reinhart’s numbers as well (as well as his small 50 min sample)

G,

If we run 5v4 numbers, I wonder if we need to change the “elite” dynamic? (i.e, does 1 elite and 2 middle still equal elite?)

I wonder if we need to use purely 5v4 metrics to create an “elite 5v4” list?

As we know many “elite” players aren’t good on the PP. Hall being a prime example.

Water Fire

frjohnk: What’s league average and what did Larsson post?
I’m on my EBERLE phone.

EBERLE hates poutine.

Ryan

Woodguy:
Same list of Dmen 4v5.

TOI 4v5

PlayerTOI
DARNELL.NURSE150.11
ANDREJ.SEKERA139.44
BRANDON.DAVIDSON135.12
ERIC.GRYBA126.21
MARK.FAYNE122.27
OSCAR.KLEFBOM81.81
JUSTIN.SCHULTZ56.45
GRIFFIN.REINHART50.86

Shots Against/60 4v5
PlayerSA60
GRIFFIN.REINHART35.39
ANDREJ.SEKERA41.31
MARK.FAYNE47.11
DARNELL.NURSE49.96
BRANDON.DAVIDSON50.18
OSCAR.KLEFBOM53.54
ERIC.GRYBA56.57
JUSTIN.SCHULTZ57.4

4v5 Fenwick Against/60 (I like Fenwick as a PK metric as it gives credit for blocked shots)
PlayerFA60
GRIFFIN.REINHART51.91
ANDREJ.SEKERA53.36
MARK.FAYNE62.81
DARNELL.NURSE71.15
ERIC.GRYBA74.64
BRANDON.DAVIDSON75.49
OSCAR.KLEFBOM76.27
JUSTIN.SCHULTZ79.72

Note to Ryan: Both shots and Fenwick are SV% independent too

How is it that you make me feel like you’re an old friend and we’ve never met?

I saw you headed for the shots against / 60 4v5 before I finished my post.

While I was already aware of Reinhart’s results for the Oilers, I maintain that his success is driven by other factors… Small sample, second pp units, luck etc.

Also, Reinhart’s shots against /60 the previous season was 83.4 or also worst on the Islanders.

Water Fire

Ryan: How is it that you make me feel like you’re an old friend and we’ve never met?

I saw you headed for the shots against / 60 4v5 before I finished my post.

While I was already aware of Reinhart’s results for the Oilers, I maintain that his success is driven by other factors… Small sample, second pp units, luck etc.

Also, Reinhart’s shots against /60 the previous season was 83.4 or also worst on the Islanders.

The call is coming from in the house!

Ryan

Anyway, either Reinhart is just an absolute beast of an NHL penalty killer or something else is driving his results. Given that he was sixth in Pk toi/60 on the Oilers, maybe Mclellan is too stupid to recognize his gord like Pk abilities or some other factors are in play.

flyfish1168

Since Gretz is currently employed by the Bruins, does this mean we owe the Bruins another draft pick? If he is hired

Woodguy

Ryan,


How is it that you make me feel like you’re an old friend and we’ve never met?

Because I’m sweet and unassuming.

Also, Reinhart’s shots against /60 the previous season was 83.4 or also worst on the Islanders.

You know he played under 5 minutes on the PK that year right?

I know I like small samples too much, but that’s infinitesimal.