RE 16-17 BENOIT POULIOT: NEW YORK CITY

by Lowetide

Since Benoit Pouliot went down with an injury that ended his season, the left wing position has seen major change on the Edmonton Oilers roster—to the point where there could be some questions about where he fits. No matter, Pouliot is a terrific answer to whatever challenge the Oilers choose to deploy him in. (New York City)

BENOIT POULIOT 15-16

  • 5×5 points per 60: 2.05 (4th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.75 (6th among regular forwards)
  • Corsi for % 5×5: 51.0
  • Qual Comp: 6th toughest among regular forwards (2nd line opp)
  • Qual Team: 5th best teammates among regular forwards (2nd line linemates)
  • Corsi Rel: 7.9
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 109/12.8%
  • Boxcars: 55GP, 14-22-36
  • (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and BehindtheNet.ca)

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER

VOLLMAN LW

RE 16-17: 62GP, 17-22-39 .629

  1. How good is he? A very good NHL forward. His 2.05 5×5 points-per-60 ranks him No. 37 among NHL forwards with 400 or more minutes in the discipline. (Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com)
  2. Who likes Pouliot? I do, most analytics folks do, probably the Pouliot’s who know him, neighbors, dog, people in his complex. ‘Like’ is probably too mild a word—he is a really good player.
  3. Who doesn’t like Pouliot? The people who roll their eyes when he takes penalties in the offensive zone.
  4. Why don’t they like Pouliot? He takes penalties in the offensive zone.
  5. How much offense does he deliver? Per 82 games, BP has scored 18-21-39.
  6. That isn’t much for $4 million. Since arriving in Edmonton, he has delivered 51 points per 82 games, he just can’t stay healthy for 82 games.
  7. What is he? He has pretty close to a complete skill set, making him one of the best complementary players on the team. Pouliot has enough skill to play (and succeed) on a top line, and he forechecks well—that is where he gets the penalties. I never worry about those penalties, those are the kinds of penalties that are easy to kill.
  8. What? What?
  9. Why do you constantly mention interrupting sorties? You know how the Oilers can never make a damned pass out of their zone because some pesky forward is either interrupting or intercepting a pass? That is Pouliot on the Oilers, he does that to opponents effectively. He and Nuge are the forecheckers on the Oilers who can gain possession when the other team is heading up ice. BP is a very good forward in this area.
  10. Who did he play well with? Pouliot is a plug-and-play veteran, having had success with all centers. He clearly enjoyed his time with McDavid (2.94/60 5×5; 53.6 percent Corsi for percentage), less so with a clearly struggling Nuge (1.60/60 5×5; 49.1 percent Corsi for percentage). Corsica has him doing well with multiple linemates.
  11. He gets injured a lot. Pouliot plays a rugged style, and his injuries are not wimpy little maladies. Shoulder, broken foot, on it goes. He is a tougher player than some believe.
  12. Maroon makes him moot! No. Not at all.
  13. Maroon will win the 2line job. Well, I have Pouliot getting more time than Maroon on the 2line, but I do think we will see both men alongside Nuge and or Leon.
  14. Who scores more? Well, BP gets his RE first, so a good guess would be him.
  15. Why does he score more? I think Pouliot is a better offensive player (5×5/60), so he is going to be a very effective player on a soft minutes third line—and the best available option for the 2line.
  16. You have him scoring less than last year, though. Yes. I think the Oilers will have several wingers moving up and down the lineup—and he could be playing with a very young Leon and a rookie in Puljujarvi—so a small dip in offense should be anticipated.
  17. How much did he play on the power play last season? 128 minutes, he went 4-4-8 at the 5×4.
  18. Same output this season? I actually have the Oilers power play improving this year, and Pouliot with 12PP points, 27 at evens. Increases in both totals, but he is also projected to play seven more games.
  19. How many forwards do you have playing top 6F at one point or another next season? I have McDavid, Eberle, Lucic, Nuge, Leon, Pouliot, Yakupov, Maroon, Kassian, Puljujarvi—not necessarily in that scoring order. So that is 10 forwards inside the top 6F at one point or another. Drake Caggiula could also play there, but that seems a stretch.
  20. Will the Oilers trade him before his contract expires? I think so. He was not signed by the current general manager, a less expensive (if lesser) winger has been procured (Patrick Maroon) and he should have enough trade value to move the needle. He has three years left, and a team like Anaheim might consider him a worthwhile addition.
  21. Could he be traded this season? Probably. Edmonton’s LW depth chart (Lucic, Pouliot, Maroon, Hendricks) is not strong enough to weather a loss, but if they traded Pouliot and signed Pirri the offense would be replaced.
  22. But who would take those offensive-zone penalties? Heh. Pouliot has terrific value beyond the points, wish I was certain the Oilers agreed on that point. I think they have a sense that he doesn’t use his size enough.
  23. How many goals does Edmonton score in this RE? I can’t tell you, but it is more than a year ago—mostly due to the power play.
  24. Would you do Benoit Pouliot for Cam Fowler? I think the Oilers should try to solve the RH defense problem without creating a hole elsewhere.
  25. Why this song? It is a great song, love the guitar. It reminds me of buying punk albums at Obscure Alternatives in the old Tegler Building. I would drop in, buy five albums with my money earned, head home and listen to bands from England with weird names and safety pins hither and yawn. Fun times. The connection to Pouliot is very thin—he played in NYC—but I wanted to get this song into the group.
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who

G Money:
who,

If you think it’s a conspiracy that refs have biases, you may be interested in reading this: http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2014/11/20/7253031/kerry-fraser-nhl-referees-officials-officiating-canadiens-brendan-gallagher-pk-subban

Ok, I read the article, but it seems to me it is talking about refs identifying divers and not making calls when they do go down. I don’t think that is what people are talking about with Wideman. Posts I have read say that all refs are out to get Wideman because he ran over an official. I just don’t see this as very probable during the heat of a game.
I think some refs will call a game tighter than others, and a lot of refs will give more leeway to players checking divers, but saying referee B is out to get player X because he ran over referee A is a pretty big leap.

stevezie

Lowetide,

Don’t recall the story, but without even knowing what “showed up”means here i agree. Teammates etc.

stevezie

Lowetide,

Surprising. I believe he was a captain in junior.

stevezie

I have never seen a player get as disrespected by the refs as Zach Stortini. For me, that will always be his legacy.

That and his caveman like appearance.

Hockey skills probably crack the top fifteen.

G Money

Kiltymcbagpipes,

Exactly. There is also a fair bit of work that shows that ‘home [ice,field]’ advantage is primarily a result of changes in refereeing. The hostility of the home crowd to calls that go against them influences referees – they’re only human. That’s in every sport, not just hockey.

Kiltymcbagpipes

G Money:
who,

If you think it’s a conspiracy that refs have biases, you may be interested in reading this: http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2014/11/20/7253031/kerry-fraser-nhl-referees-officials-officiating-canadiens-brendan-gallagher-pk-subban

Good read and while I wouldn’t go as far to say it is a conspiracy I do think refs have biases and officiate based on a guy’s perceived reputation. In relation to the Oilers, I remember Kassian getting a few real questionable calls against him that I dont think they would call against Jeff Carter for example. Taylor Hall (who I definitely feel the Refs didn’t like) definitely had a bad rep with officials often not getting some obvious calls despite getting mauled. I’ve seen Crosby get those calls (who the refs love) time and time again. Both IMO are floppers but Crosby has better on ice rapport with the refs whereas Hall appeared to always be whining to them.

Fair or not, there definitely appears to be a bias when it comes to refereeing in the NHL but that has always been the case IMO.

G Money

who,

If you think it’s a conspiracy that refs have biases, you may be interested in reading this: http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2014/11/20/7253031/kerry-fraser-nhl-referees-officials-officiating-canadiens-brendan-gallagher-pk-subban

who

Derek: I think those equalization calls may follow Wideman around for the rest of his career: http://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/1067652-report-linesman-hit-by-wideman-had-neck-surgery-career-may-be-over

I’ve read this on numerous posts here and I just don’t get it. Do you really think a whole league of officials are going to have some sort of vendetta against Wideman. I think most officials have all they can handle during a game to keep up to the play without worrying about sticking it to Wideman.
I am not advocating the Oilers acquiring Wideman, really don’t have an opinion on it, but find the whole conspiracy theory hilarious.

frjohnk

I’m a little surprised that the Yotes bought out Vermette, not so much because of the player, but more so because of their lack of depth at center.

Maybe at 34 years old, he is done, but 17 goals 38 points, 55% FO% as a center are decent stats ( he was a drag on possession numbers though)

Looks like they are throwing Strome and Dvorak into the fire as top 9 center options. If Hanzal goes down, having two rookies as the top two centers usually works well. If I was a Yote fan, Id hope they are looking for an upgrade in the center spot to provide cover.

G Money

Kiltymcbagpipes: I find it ironic that we are even contemplating Vermette here when Analytics guru and GM Chayka let him go. I’m pretty sure if his fancystats were good he wouldnt be getting bought out. It’s no surprise GMoney doesn’t like him since Chayka clearly doesn’t either.

I find it interesting that people are using Chayka’s role as some sort of referendum on analytics.

Chayka has a background as an analytics guy, this is known.

I personally have no idea if he’s any good at it. So his conclusions do not influence my conclusions in any way.

For the record, my conclusions often are at odds with those of members of the broader fancystats ecosystem, even with those I respect.

Observationally, there is far less of a hive mind in the pro-evidence community than there is in the anti-evidence community. The former thrives on oft-nasty peer review, while the latter thrives on a sheep-like process of elevating myths to truth by unquestioning simple-minded repetition.

As for Chayka specifically, it strikes me that the hockey business is many years behind the broader world of business (despite the presence of supposedly savvy business owners).

Many years ago, it was de rigeur for companies to hire bright young MBAs and immediately elevate them into executive roles.

It did not end well. An MBA provides valuable long-run business knowledge, but in no way prepares you for on-the-ground management of people or organizations. (I say this as someone with an MBA among the letters after my name, so I have no axe to grind)

Chayka’s hiring is far more a referendum on the business savvy of the people who hired him, not the use or value of analytics.

Good luck to him, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him struggle.

G Money

*** SPAM WARNING ***

Above snapshot (with additional data and extra fanciness):

http://www.beerleagueheroes.com/is-antoine-vermette-a-fit-for-the-oilers/

godot10

Kiltymcbagpipes: He did score 17 goals last year and is still good at faceoffs and as LT pointed out could be an upgrade over Lander. I agree this sounds like a Korpse move all over again so if we do sign him anything more than 1 year would be a mistake IMO.

Ryan Jones scored 18 goals and 17 goals too. It didn’t mean that he was a good hockey player.

Even Korpikoski got 10 goals last year, and he cratered everyone he played with.

It is far more likely that Lander’s shooting percentage reverts to something less horrid than a 34-year old centre rebounds.

Kiltymcbagpipes

godot10: Except that he is Korpikoski all over again.

Vermette WAS a very good player.Not any more.

He did score 17 goals last year and is still good at faceoffs and as LT pointed out could be an upgrade over Lander. I agree this sounds like a Korpse move all over again so if we do sign him anything more than 1 year would be a mistake IMO.

godot10

John Chambers:

Vermette is nearly a perfect-fit add for the bottom of the roster.

Except that he is Korpikoski all over again.

Vermette WAS a very good player. Not any more.

godot10

Jethro Tull: Now there’s a decent veteran.

S
who is done if Tippett waived him. See Korpikoski. See Ference.

godot10

Jethro Tull: Still struggling to see where the points come from with that D.

Some good players, but we need career season/unrealistic production from two or more of these players.

History shows us that it isn’t going to be Fayne or Larrson or Reinhart.We need Sekera to put up 30 assists, not 30pts and we just haven’t seen enough of Klef to know anything.That leaves Davidson.

If a defensemen can pass the puck to McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins, or Draisaitl, they are going to get points. Klefbom (apart from the world juniors) showed no offense in the conventional boxcar sense, until he got to the NHL, and the ability to pass well led to points.

Klefbom, Larsson, Sekera, and Davidson are all above average NHL passers already. Reinhart is a good passer, and this will show once he gets gets his NHL game in order. Nurse I worry a bit about, but he will utilize his puck lugging abilities to establish himself while his passing develops.

Sekera is a very good offensive defensemen, except on the power play, where he is lousy at getting his shots on net. He was incredible on 3×3 overtime.

Kiltymcbagpipes

Lowetide: He brings some things and a $1M deal is probably possible. Do you like Vermette’s experience, 5×4 number and faceoffs more than Lander? I can see Peter Chiarelli saying yes to that. Seriously.

I like Woodguy as my #3 center more than I like Lander. So yes.

Kiltymcbagpipes

I find it ironic that we are even contemplating Vermette here when Analytics guru and GM Chayka let him go. I’m pretty sure if his fancystats were good he wouldnt be getting bought out. It’s no surprise GMoney doesn’t like him since Chayka clearly doesn’t either.

He reminds me of Boyd Gordon of 2 or 3 years ago. Not sure there’s enough value there

John Chambers

Lowetide,

I think they circle back on Gryba.

No way they go into camp without another right-handed stick on D. Chiarelli has made such a point about it I can’t imagine they remain status quo.

stephen sheps

G Money,

Not a bad idea, and thanks for posting the viz, too.

I had hoped for a bit better results, but I agree now that passing on him is the right call.
Korpse had decent offence too… maybe the answer here is to stay away from veteran Coyotes?

rickithebear

Lowetide: No. 2 overall—Connor McDavid 2.69
No. 11 overall—Taylor Hall 2.31
No. 20 overall—Leon Draisaitl 2.20
No. 37 overall—Benoit Pouliot 2.05
No. 83 overall—Jordan Eberle 1.85

The problem for Edmonton? 3 and 4 lines offense, PP, and injuries

Injuries resulting in 4th line forwards being our #3 line.
Hall 12gm a season
RNH 12gm a season
Pouliot 25 gm a season
Eberle 5gm a season
Mcdcvid half his 1st season

Scotty bowman believed in Offensive Pairs with Great Pocession retrieval forwards.

all our forwards experienced Even offensive declines under Eakins.
and were largely effective under Renney; Krueger; Nelson; Tmac.

PPGF/60 – PPG/60
Lander:
13-15 9.00 – 2.25 – 4.50

RNH:
11-13 9.45 PPGF/60 – 1.01 PPG/60 – 6.63 PPP/60
13-15 7.27 – 1.10 – 4.80
15-16 8.13 – 1.71 – 4.71

Hall:
11-13 9.09 – 3.15 – 6.49
13-15 7.11 – 1.65 – 3.80
15-16 5.32 – 1.06 – 3.19

Horcoff:
11-13 8.90 – 1.58 – 3.17

Eberle:
11-13 8.09 – 1.90 – 4.44
13-15 7.39 – 1.88 – 5.51
15-16 6.42 – 2.36 –

Pouliot:
13-15 6.04 – 2.46 – 3.36
15-16 7.91 – 1.86 – 3.72

Mcdcvid:
15-16 7.86 – 1.39 – 6.47

Maroon
15-16 6.73 – 2.81 – 4.49

Letestu
15-16 6.72 – 1.12 – 4.11

Lucic:
11-15 6.58 – 1.10 – 3.19
15-16 8.79 – 0.70 – 2.81

Yakupov:
11-13 6.67 – 2.65 – 4.62
13-15 5.22 – 1.67 – 3.14
15-16 5.77 – 0.58 – 3.46

Draisatl
15-16 5.71 – 1.68 – 3.03

G Money

I think I’ll publish that little snapshot above at BLH!

G Money

stephen sheps: can WoodMoney provide any insight into the player?

Here’s the WM viz for Vermette, the Vizmette as it were: http://i.imgur.com/DsdiiwJ.png

Bear in mind that at the moment, using WM for forwards should be done cautiously, as we’re only looking at F vs F matchups, while F vs D matchups (for forwards) likely matter for qualcomp at least as much and almost certainly more.

Here’s my read, curious to see if anyone else has any other insights:

1 – His TOI is relatively balanced, suggesting a third line(ish) utility forward used up and down the lineup. His zone starts would appear to confirm this, as he’s pretty much 50% in both total and true zone starts.

2 – By CF, he gets caved by all comp except ‘Gritensity’ where he is slightly above breakeven, by DFF he gets caved by all comp except Gritensity, where he almost breaks even. His ‘earned’ zone starts drop below 50%, reflecting his negative influence on possession.

3 – His rels are below zero for all comp except vs Gritensity. So he’s playing on a pretty shitty possession team (surprise) to boot, but is still above average as a fourth liner on that team.

The possession results vs comp clash with his decent boxcars – which together suggest that the way he scored is that he did so by giving up more than he got. You can see that in the wide gap between his ‘for’ and ‘against’ lines in both CF and especially DFF.

Suspect that his good boxcars are at least partially attributable to his faceoff prowess, which remains stellar.

All in all?

I’d say stay away, regardless of price. He’s not likely (much of) an upgrade on Letestu, and at his age, he’s on a downhill slope.

We need an upgrade in our bottom 6. Vermette isn’t the droid we’re looking for.

Derek

Jethro Tull: After reading Rex’s great series on the Oiler’s Rig about referee’s feeling they have to give ‘equalization’ calls, I think the equalization call for Wideman could last all season long!

I think those equalization calls may follow Wideman around for the rest of his career: http://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/1067652-report-linesman-hit-by-wideman-had-neck-surgery-career-may-be-over

Jethro Tull

Bruce McCurdy,

A lot of it, i think, is venting frustration. A ‘bad’ penalty to me can be taken anywhere on the ice in any situation. It is the result of either not learning you can’t keep doing what you’re doing. Super obvious slashes in front of the ref, giving him no option and so forth.

The frustration comes with o zone penalties because it implies that you have some pressure built on the defending team. You either have possession, or you’re very close to getting it back. One little bit of over-zealousness, and back down the other end it goes, and if the transgressor happens to be one of your PKers, well, darn.

Now, Pou had a reputation before we even got him. Whether it was earned or not i don’t know. I demonstrated on here last season (with numbers and everything!) that Hall was not a ‘turnover machine’ and he stole a lot more pucks than he ever lost. Still, he’s a turnover machine who falls over a lot, and he’ll always be that to some, no matter what the evidence.

gd

RE: Vermette

This seems like a really bizarre decision by the Coyotes. Basically they don’t save any money as the Million dollar buyout saving has to go to whoever replaces him in the lineup as a top 9 Forward. They are going into the season with at least 3 or 4 of their top 9 being either rookies or second year players and have determined that they don’t want a veteren who was at least functional last year. They are the one team who cap space doesn’t matter, but cash does.

From an Oiler point of view, hopefully this means a division rival is using this year as a development year and means one less team in the playoff chase. Chia was with Ottawa when Vermette was there and Howson had him in Cbus, so hopefully they have a read on him. He seems like a great pickup if you can get him for less than $1.5 Mill a year.

franksterra

John Chambers,

I like keeping drai at C and trying testube, lando, and JJ for the 4th. Options are good though. Live in the contradiction more!

franksterra

Vermette is an interesting player for sure, but as we build our Rube Goldberg mousetrap roster the question would be who would he be replacing, displacing to wing, blocking or mentoring? Him or a player like hm is tempting but maybe it’s an in-season move once we see how this crew shakes out. On the other hand, on D I am a bit more anxious to get that other RHD prior to the season. Live in the contradiction!

John Chambers

You can never have enough reliable Centres. As it stands any injury pushes Letestu into the top-9, and offensive wasteLander into the lineup.

If you want to have a versatility where Draisaitl can move to the wing, you need pivots who aren’t going to be liabilities.

Vermette is nearly a perfect-fit add for the bottom of the roster.

Bruce McCurdy

Ca$h-McMoney!: Top 90 is first liners.

We had 5 of them at 5v5

Damn.

I guess that explains how we made it all the way up to 29th.

Ca$h-McMoney!

Lowetide: No. 2 overall—Connor McDavid 2.69
No. 11 overall—Taylor Hall 2.31
No. 20 overall—Leon Draisaitl 2.20
No. 37 overall—Benoit Pouliot 2.05
No. 83 overall—Jordan Eberle 1.85

The problem for Edmonton? 3 and 4 lines offense, PP, and injuries

Top 90 is first liners.

We had 5 of them at 5v5

Damn.

Bruce McCurdy

LT, I am with you on the o-zone penalties issue. It is axiomatic around the hockey world that 100.0% of OZPs are bad, every single one of them, it is conventional “wisdom” among (lazy) game commentators & a huge majority of fans buy that line of thinking without questioning the logic.

To me OZPs are undesirable the way giveaways are undesirable. You don’t like the individual play but they also act as a proxy for the guys that carry the puck the most — it doesn’t always end well. Same thing goes for guys who frequently “interrupt sorties”. They take a bad angle or their stick gets caught up or something else happens & they sit out for 2 minutes. But maybe in the interval since the last time the guy took a “bad” OZP he has messed up 25 breakouts & caused 5 turnovers & 12 loose pucks. At what point does one conclude that for such players OZPs are a cost of doing business?

Centre of attention

Lowetide:
Vermette has very little 5×5 offense, but is good in the FO circle. Possession is meh, but his possession rel to team is about even. 16 PP points is interesting.

Would you employ him as a cheap 3rd line center with hopes he can help on both special teams? Faceoffs are important for PK too.

rickithebear

WG:

Finally Had time to read the last month of blogs fully:
A lot of Coal plant life expectancy at work.

Just found this one!

//”With all my grinding of Dmen data I don’t think that Dmen drive CF or DFF as much as we think.It *may* have more to do with the forwards they play with.”//

You guys are discovering what i found out 7-10 years ago.
I have been applying Ariz GM’s approach to game and Video analysis since i first started looking at

And have pretty much got panned and hammered by guys like you for this belief.

This was the original site of analytical advancement.
I understood you were smart!
and
would realize your error at some point.

Heck it only took you guys the same time to differentiate between Comp thru your superior computer slills.

What does video analysis tell me?

What players are in the HSCA in Defensive zone?
Mostly Dmen!

What players are mostly in the HSCA in the Ozone.
Forwards.

by the very structure of play.
forwards are closer to targeting and free path open space.
CF.

Dmen are closer to Targeting and free path in HSCA but
CA is driven equally by Dmen HSCA coverage
and
LSCA forward coverage.

The critical SA/60 and Goal against differrentiation is mostly in the HSCA .

THERE IS NO REAL CORRELATION BETWEEN CA AND GA.
Forwards are blocking and forcing the misses (thou distance affects targeting) of largely LSCA shots.
average of 19.5 shots. +/- 2 shots

Dmen largely affect thru blocks; Misses (targeting more accurate) in the HSCA
average of 10.5 Shots +/- 3 shots.

Completely different players and Success mechanics.

Jethro Tull

JDï™: He’s a Pinball Wiz!

There’s got to be a twist?

How do you think he does it?

What makes him so good?

stephen sheps

on the subject of Vermette:
https://twitter.com/BmoreDaveS/status/760149018622226432

I still think he’d be a fine 3C, which could help give Leon cover/move to 2RW and keep JP on a good development curve, but the numbers from last season aren’t stellar…

can WoodMoney provide any insight into the player?

JD_Wry

Jethro Tull: And that is?

He’s a Pinball Wiz!

Jethro Tull

Ben:
If we add Vermette and–don’t jump down my throat here–Wideman, for next to nothing, that feels like a more complete summer, to me.

After reading Rex’s great series on the Oiler’s Rig about referee’s feeling they have to give ‘equalization’ calls, I think the equalization call for Wideman could last all season long!

RexLibris

Pouliot is as close as I’ve seen the Oilers get to the “Pisani” type since Pisani. He’s not a perfect fit, but as close as they’ve come (I think Ryan Jones was their idea of Pisani for a time).

Absent Hall, Pouliot becomes a roster necessity because he’s got a very good defensive conscience on the wing.

Eastern Oil

Steve Burtch (@steveburtch) has a good series of tweets on Vermette. May be a guy whose reputation is still ahead of his production.

Ben

If we add Vermette and–don’t jump down my throat here–Wideman, for next to nothing, that feels like a more complete summer, to me.

Ca$h-McMoney!

So he was 4th on the Oil in 5×5/60 but 37th in the NHL? That seems odd given the Oilers lack of scoring and poor overall play.

Or I’m reading that wrong.

Centre of attention

Vermette could be my 3rd line center any day.