OILERS SIGN MATT BENNING

by Lowetide

For the fourth time this offseason, the Edmonton Oilers have signed a college player. Along with Drake Caggiula, Nick Ellis and Patrick Russell, Benning will play somewhere in the pro chain that makes up Edmonton’s system. There is a lot of disagreement about this player, so let’s begin with the math and then get to the scouting reports.

OILERS MINOR LEAGUE BLUE AND CURRENT NHLE

NHLE PRO BLUEThere is no exact science to this, but I generally see defensemen who score 20 or more points NHLE as offensive defensemen (or in some cases complete defensemen), two-way guys land in the teens or slightly above, and David Musil is a defensive defenseman. Benning lands at around Dillon Simpson, and that is a pretty good spot. There is no guarantee with this player, but we were blessed with the brains God gave us and this is a player who has been selected twice (draft and today’s signing) by general manager Peter Chiarelli. Clearly there is a connection between manager and player.

BENNING CAPTURE2

LEFTORIUM

leftorium1

Among the righties, all but Mark Fayne arrived under the Peter Chiarelli regime. Jesus Murphy. Benning should not be considered a realistic option for the 2016-17 Oilers, although a strong showing in the minors might see him climb the pro depth chart during the year.

SCOUTING REPORTS

  • Kirk Luedeke, The Scouting Post: A defense-first guy who plays bigger and with an impressive physical edge for possessing pretty average size at 6-foot, 200+ pounds. Benning isn’t going to wow you- he’s a consistent presence if nothing else. He’s not flashy or dynamic but is smart and rugged. He fills lanes quickly, gaps up well, and will pop you good if there are any thoughts of trying to cut to the middle- keep the head on a swivel when Benning is out there for the Huskies. His father, Brian, played more than 500 NHL games as a defenseman and tallied nearly 300 career points, so while his career wasn’t all that long (he retired at age 29), he was an impact two-way threat/effective puck-mover who was at his best in the late 1980s with the St. Louis Blues and Los Angeles Kings. Matt Benning is a chip off the old block- he’s got nice vision, the ability to make an effective first pass and a willingness to join the rush, not to mention the little bit of nasty he brings to bear during the trench battles along the walls and in front of the net. Source
  • Jeff Cox, SB Nation: Boston Bruins prospect Matt Benning has really stepped up his game. He’s logging a lot of minutes for Jim Madigan’s team and has improved drastically from the player fans saw when he first took the Matthews Arena ice. He’ll never be the prettiest of skaters, but he’s improved in that category and has really learned to make the most of his game. He’s got a good stick, he’s smart out there and he does fairly well with one-on-one battles. Source

 

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Gret99zky

MrEd:
Gryba for a year is fine with me for 16-17.

It’s the right thing to do. I doubt they do it.™

Gret99zky

digger50:
Still a better plan to grab a little more NHL talent before the season starts Mr. Chiarelli.

It’s the right thing to do. I doubt they do it.™

Victoria Oil

Woodguy – thank you for the brilliant analysis on Larsson.

Regarding the Benning signing, I don’t know if I should be happy we signed him or depressed that he’s now our #3 right-shot dman.

dangilitis

Woodguy:
*****SPAM*****

New Because Oilers:

I had a deeper look at Larsson vs Severson

http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/08/a-deeper-look-at-larsson-vs-severson.html

*****END SPAM*****

That was excellent spam.

First off, I actually understood 75 per cent or more of what you wrote, which is good for explaining difficult concepts to a layman.

Second, I didn’t actually know why some have been gravitating towards xGF and DFF but you have completely sold me on it – if I follow you correctly, Corsi should not be used in discussions anymore when there are significantly better alternatives (of course, NHL.com is a day late and a dollar short…)

Third, it reassures me that we have a competent top 4 d-man who wasn’t just riding Schneider’s coattails.

What I fear, however, is that the oilers looked at similar data and interpreted it to mean that larsson can drive offense with better oz starts because he was regularly asked to escape from Alcatraz. I guess I don’t fear it, they pretty much came right out and said that he had tough assignments. As many smarter people have pointed out, he still will be asked to take regular shifts against top lines in his own zone. With less severe treatment (eg 40% OZS), will his DFF pick up? That is where the bet in exchange Taylor Hall becomes a massive leap of faith…

Really great work

MrEd

Gryba for a year is fine with me for 16-17.

Klima's_Bucket

OF17,

Letestu has spent time on the point in Columbus.

OF17

fifthcartel,

Yeah, I find it hard to believe McLellan would bury Klefbom-Larsson in the name of giving Sekera-Fayne easier assignments. I see it going the opposite way, which should help Larsson. I also see him getting a bit of PP time just by nature of being one of the few RH options that can be trusted at the point. Him, maybe Puljujarvi, who else?

I’m firmly pro Larsson, so I also believe he has more to give. I find it hard to believe that a player that shows such vision and passing in 2/3 zones has nothing more to give in the other one.

MrEd

Great photo- to my eye being a R shot seems like a good thing… Scores!!!!
At least a little bit of depth…
One more.

fifthcartel

OF17,

No problem, I’m interested to hear any answers.

I’d be really curious how Larsson would do if given a less severe ZSR and I’m reasonably confident we’ll get to see that happen.

I’m sure he’ll see some PP2 time and I wonder if more offensive zone time lead to a little bump in offense.

I know this was ages ago but both his draft – 1 and draft year featured good offense for the SHL, a league that doesn’t usually favour high point totals for defensemen. His time in the AHL seems to echo that as well, I wonder if there’s more to give there.

Bruce McCurdy

JDï™: Actually, saying that they hope he might impress like Parayko is quite reasonable, given this:

“We believe he can step in right away and contribute,” Tambellini added. “How we mix and match, we’ll have to see how that works.

Tambellini wtf. Is that a Schultz related quote?

OF17

fifthcartel:
Woodguy,

After looking at this, would you recommend continuing to use Larsson in this extremely buried way or give him and Klefbom more reasonable zone starts? Or what do you think McLellan will do? Didn’t he bury Vlasic-Braun?

Could we also see a decent swing in terms of CF% if his zone starts come back to normal rates?

Not WG, but to me it seems doubtful McLellan will use Larsson in as extreme of a role. NJ had Larsson at around 20% OZS%. At their worst, Vlasic-Braun were about 7 percentage points higher than that, and that’s a pairing with prime Marc-Edouard Vlasic on it.

Sekera-Fayne were at 25-26% last year, but a lot of that has to do with how few options there were for those minutes. My guess is McLellan spreads the love a little more and leans on both Klefbom-Larsson and Sekera-Fayne to share the heavy lifting, with Sekera-Fayne probably getting more DZS given Fayne’s presence (and Oscar’s on the other pair). Things look good for Larsson to find significantly calmer water here than he had in New Jersey, but who knows.

JD_Wry

Ducey: Wonder how Uncle Jim feels

He’s feeling much better, thanks. The doctors said he was lucky they caught it in time.

Woodguy

fifthcartel:
Woodguy,

After looking at this, would you recommend continuing to use Larsson in this extremely buried way or give him and Klefbom more reasonable zone starts? Or what do you think McLellan will do? Didn’t he bury Vlasic-Braun?

Could we also see a decent swing in terms of CF% if his zone starts come back to normal rates?

He did bury Vlasic-Braun a little bit and I think that was to protect Burns, who isn’t good defensively and had a shite partners that year:

Player Rel.ZSR
MARC-EDOUARD.VLASIC -7.13
JUSTIN.BRAUN -6.16
BRENDEN.DILLON -3.03
MIRCO.MUELLER 2.5
BRENT.BURNS 3.17
MATT.IRWIN 4.09
SCOTT.HANNAN 6.04

I would expect something very similar next year with Klef-Larsson around -5 ZSR, maybe worse.

I would agree with that deployment as well.

ZSR= zone start ratio = ozs/(ozs+dzs)

Ducey

Great news!!!

Wonder how Uncle Jim feels ?

Centre of attention

Centre of attention:
Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer2m2 minutes ago
Matt Benning 1.075 AAV.
300K “A” bonus in 2nd year

No bonus’s in first year makes it very likely he gets NHL look-see, perhaps jumping over a guy like Reinhart.

Little Poteet

OK
Centre of attention,

Good contract for the player and the team. Though oesterle at half that may still be the better option.
Also makes Davidsons look even better

Centre of attention

Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer 2m2 minutes ago
Matt Benning 1.075 AAV.
300K “A” bonus in 2nd year

Water Fire

If Benning can skate, has jam and can defend while also having passing skills, after some AHL seasoning he might make a decent 3RD.

I’d rather have that than a brute who struggles with play. At the end of the day the RHD depth is piling up!!

Centre of attention

JDï™: Personally, I hope he impresses like Parayko – but he needs more support from the rest of the D corpse.

Lmao, I hope he impresses too but when your hopes are at Parayko level heights you’re probably bound for disappointment. Jmo.

fifthcartel

Woodguy,

After looking at this, would you recommend continuing to use Larsson in this extremely buried way or give him and Klefbom more reasonable zone starts? Or what do you think McLellan will do? Didn’t he bury Vlasic-Braun?

Could we also see a decent swing in terms of CF% if his zone starts come back to normal rates?

JD_Wry

Centre of attention: The Schultz experience™

Personally, I hope he impresses like Parayko – but he needs more support from the rest of the D corpse. 😉

pts2pndr

Expansio franchise. “Vegas Vultures”. Lots of pun to be had by all!
Benning signing is a good one. Area of need and worst case scenario a few years down the road worth a second round draft choice in trade!

pts2pndr

Expansio franchise. “Vega Vultures”. Lots of pun to be had by all!
Benning signing is a good one. Area of need and worst case scenario a few years down the road worth a second round draft choice in trade!

Centre of attention

JDï™: Actually, saying that they hope he might impress like Parayko is quite reasonable, given this:

“We believe he can step in right away and contribute,” Tambellini added. “How we mix and match, we’ll have to see how that works.

Touche’ .

The Schultz experience™ might be making me unreasonably cynical, lol. I hope they slow play Benning. A cup of coffee this year is fine and we will wait and see how next camp goes before saying whether or not he makes the team.

Woodguy

*****SPAM*****

New Because Oilers:

I had a deeper look at Larsson vs Severson

http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/08/a-deeper-look-at-larsson-vs-severson.html

*****END SPAM*****

JD_Wry

Centre of attention: Lets stay on the reasonable side of things, alright Bob? Lol.

Actually, saying that they hope he might impress like Parayko is quite reasonable, given this:

“We believe he can step in right away and contribute,” Tambellini added. “How we mix and match, we’ll have to see how that works.

Centre of attention

Lowetide:
Bob’s take on tweeter seems reasonable to me, and pretty closely reflects what I wrote in the original post:

Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer 10m10 minutes ago

Most likely scenario for Matthew Benning and for that Drake Caggiula-two NCAA free agents chased by multiple teams-is to start in the AHL…that said I could see both players working into the mix at some point at the NHL Level next season

Pretty reasonable take to my eye.

Yeah I agree that take does sound more reasonable, his first tweets were ridiculous though. He did say he expects that Benning is a full time NHL’er who makes the team out of camp by 2017-2018 on CHED yesterday, which is crazy if you ask me.

Lets stay on the reasonable side of things, alright Bob? Lol.

Centre of attention

digger50:

However the optimism out of Staufer is outrageous. They let Gryba dangle and Pardy , Clendening walk then state Benning has a shot this year. My oh my.

Awesome if Benning surprises, excellent for him and the Oil. Still a better plan to grab a little more NHL talent before the season starts Mr. Chiarelli. Losing ten games out the gate could cost the season. Just sayin.

My point exactly. They pass on Wizniewski and Nakladal and other potential options, but sign Benning then apparently expect him to challenge for NHL time.

I want to be happy about the signing, he’s a good prospect. But the development model the Oilers currently employ is so backwards its hilarious. They underplay their graduating junior players in the AHL, but fast track 22 year old NCAA signings who haven’t played a game of pro either. Perplexing, to say the least.

digger50

Good solid signing out of nowhere. This is posative.

However the optimism out of Staufer is outrageous. They let Gryba dangle and Pardy , Clendening walk then state Benning has a shot this year. My oh my.

Awesome if Benning surprises, excellent for him and the Oil. Still a better plan to grab a little more NHL talent before the season starts Mr. Chiarelli. Losing ten games out the gate could cost the season. Just sayin.

fifthcartel

OF17,

I was just about to comment on this! Hah. 🙂

Although, I did read it wrong. Petry also graduated to the pros in his draft + 5 season and split time between OKC and Edmonton (35 NHL games).

But still pretty similar point totals throughout college, division difficulty not withstanding.

OF17

Benning isn’t too far off Petry offensively over his college career. Petry scored 0.57PPG to Benning’s 0.51. Petry had the better junior year, and given his offense has been more touted over his career than Benning’s has, I’d say it’s wise to expect Benning to be the lesser offensive talent, but there’s not a gulf between the two. Benning’s Northeastern scored 0.24 more goals per game than Petry’s Michigan State in their junior years, so team scoring likely has some effect.

A prospect known for defense whose offense seems to be good enough it won’t keep him out of the league.

Centre of attention

fifthcartel:
Centre of attention,

Petry’s draft + 5 year was spent almost entirely in college with some games at the end of the season in Springfield. D + 6saw him split time in OKC and Edmonton, and his d + 7 year was spent in Edmonton.

I’d be fine with following a similar path for Benning, if he’s the real deal. AHL all year with a couple NHL games this season, then another season with more NHL time, then full time after that year.

Yeah I just don’t like when people close to the Oilers drop Parayko camparisons and start calling that he’s going to make the team out of camp for sure.

If he’s Petry, I’ll be beyond happy. I like that as a comparison, really. Thank you for that. Parayko though? Lol. Stauffer is out to lunch.

fifthcartel

Centre of attention,

Petry’s draft + 5 year was spent almost entirely in college with some games at the end of the season in Springfield. D + 6 saw him split time in OKC and Edmonton, and his d + 7 year was spent in Edmonton.

I’d be fine with following a similar path for Benning, if he’s the real deal. AHL all year with a couple NHL games this season, then another season with more NHL time, then full time after that year.

What I expect will happen is majority of this season in Bakersfield with ~20 NHL games then significant NHL time next year.

Centre of attention

Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer 19s19 seconds ago
Bob Stauffer Retweeted Edmonton Oilers
Oilers will hope that Benning might surprise like Colton Parayko and Brett Pesce did last season…

See!! This is the kind of blind hope that has plagued this team with these kinds of kids. You need to be cautious.

Schultz 2.0 Book it.

I liked this signing but now I’m mad lol.

OF17

Great news! Decent prospect for free at our most needed position. That’s a good day no matter how you slice it.

Chiarelli has done a great job of adding legit prospects this offseason. Between the draft and free agency, we’ve added Puljujarvi, Benson, Caggiula, Berglund, Niemelainen, Benning, Russell, Ellis, and Rasanen as guys that have at least a decent shot of becoming NHLers from where I stand. Cairns, Wells, McPhee, and Desharnais seem like more of the wild card type to me, but still. That’s a fantastic summer of prospect procurement.

Centre of attention

fifthcartel:
Centre of attention,

This upcoming season will be Benning’s draft + 5 year unless I read Eliteprospects wrong.

If he’s any good he’ll probably get into games this season and should show his talent level pretty quickly.

Yeah a cup of coffee is fine but I think starting next year in the AHL is a good idea too. Expecting him to make the team out of camp next year when he hasn’t even played pro yet is kind of silly IMO.

Just my opinion we should take caution. Though I guarantee the Oilers fast track him anyways, because Oilers.

fifthcartel

Centre of attention,

This upcoming season will be Benning’s draft + 5 year unless I read Eliteprospects wrong.

If he’s any good he’ll probably get into games this season and should show his talent level pretty quickly.

Centre of attention

** repost from last thread **

FWIW Stauffer says he expects Benning to get NHL games this year. He then went on to say he expects Benning to be a full time NHLer by 2017-2018 and make the team out of camp.

Lofty expectations, I don’t think I’m nearly as optimistic as Stauffer is on this kid. Maybe a cup of coffee but that’s it. If the Oilers D is still bad enough where Benning makes the team out of camp in 17′-18′ I really worry about the future lol.

Lets just see how he does in the AHL and go from there ok? Lol.