ZIYAT ZIYAT SOVIET

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers have a bushel and a peck of defensemen across the hockey universe and surely some of these fellows will make it to the NHL. We have some news on prospects, and here we go!

ZIYAT PAIGIN

He played another game yesterday, after having missed a few. His line now runs 3gp, 0-0-0 (with an explanation) and he is running 17:08 a night for Ak Bars Kazan. We received a fabulous update yesterday in the comments section, and here it is:

  • Pink Socks—Ziyat Paigin update. Watched all of the Ak-Bars game this morning minus the last 10 minutes or so, Paigin was wearing a full face shield which he does not normally wear so without understanding the announcers in the pregame talking about him, I’m assuming it was injury that kept him out the past two games. That being said, guy QB’s a powerplay like a champ. Both (Kazan) goals on the PP, both times Paigin was on the ice, he got one assist on a 5 on 3 (Note: later taken away, or not rewarded). Guys don’t want to block his shot. Probably a combination of how heavy the shot is, and also the fact that it is Yakupov-esque in its accuracy. He set up a teammate on a beauty of a steal at the O blue, keeping it in the zone and gave him a mini-break but couldn’t cash. Threw a few big hits and looked more than competent in D zone. Really active stick breaking up passes, defended reasonably well on one 2 on 1. He skates surprisingly strong. In the few games I have caught last year and this one from the new season, he looks bonafide to my eye.

The start has been a little slow offensively, but Pink Socks telling us about the power-play time is encouraging. This is an interesting player, hopefully we get to see him next fall. Thanks, Pink Socks!

TYLER BENSON

  • Benson: ”I’m back on the ice now practicing with the team (Vancouver Giants). I am feeling well, had a good summer of training and just excited for the season.”
  • Benson on getting drafted by the Oilers: ‘A very special moment, growing up an Oiler fan. It was a pretty special moment being able to put that jersey on.’
  • Source

A full, healthy season is all I ask. Important year for this young man, the second round is where Edmonton’s draft picks go to die.

KEVEN BOUCHARD

Former Oilers draft pick Keven Bouchard—who is not signed and is a free agent—will apparently attend Oilers training camp before returning to the QMJHL for his 20-year old season. The exhibition season is underway, and Bouchard is among three Moncton goalies who have seen action:

  1. Dominik Tmej .914
  2. Matthew Waite .882
  3. Keven Bouchard .846

Bouchard’s body of work since draft day has been poor, but there were some interesting signs last year. He ran a .909 playoff save percentage this spring (17 games) and that is the first SP over .900 I recall for this player.

AAPELI RASANEN

    • Rasanen: ‘ I’m a 200-ft player. I can contribute on both ends. I’m good at face-offs and am an all-around center. I’m more of a playmaker, but I am a bigger guy and should play more physical.’Source

I love this scouting report! Not many kids would throw in the downside, good for him. I love this pick, not just because this is my favorite player type—but because Edmonton simply doesn’t have many of these ‘range of skill’ skaters. Excellent choice if the club had made it in the third round, stellar pick from the sixth round.

50-MAN LIST

50-man aug 27

We arrive at the Labor Day weekend with this roster, friends. After a turbulent summer and a monster trade, Peter Chiarelli is both the least popular general manager since the last guy and the first one to address balance since Kevin Lowe. I gave him an incomplete grade earlier this week, and believe it is fair. The summer you trade Taylor Hall is the summer you also give yourself (and your coach and team) their best chance to make the playoffs. PC isn’t there yet, and we know he feels the same way.

Tyler (who is a must-follow on twitter) also pointed out that Bob mentioned Cody Franson and Dennis Wideman as having been discussed. Both men have been talked about on this blog and elsewhere over the piece, I would prefer Franson but either man offers the Oilers a chance to address a need. I think Franson would be able to handle third pairing and be able to help on the power play, Wideman (to me) is a bit of a wildcard based on his most recent season.

MAKING THE OILERS GREAT AGAIN

  • A two-way center like Mikael Backlund
  • A power-play defender who can play top 6D like Sami Vatanen
  • A stronger backup goalie option

Peter Chiarelli has cut down the shopping list and given balance and structure to the roster. You may not like the summer trade (I did not and expressed it) but there is no denying that he tackled some of the heavy work of finding a balanced roster. After these chores are done? Depth. PC has worked long and hard on improving that area too, especially in the area of college procurement. The four horseman may do a fine job of covering for that wobbly 2014 draft.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouth Sports. Northlands Coliseum is no longer part of the fall and winter schedule, Steve spent a lot of time there. We will reminisce about the olden days.
  • Kent Wilson, Flames Nation. Calgary had a helluva summer, but still have work to do. Are they good enough to get back to the playoffs?
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. The Eskimos enter the Labor Day classic with an uneven back story in 2016. Are they heading in a good direction?

TSN1260 at 10, @lowetide on twitter or 10-1260 text. Long weekend straight ahead!

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Extend Russell

rickithebear,

9 million for a tremendous offensive talent on the backend. Not to mention McDavids fav player in the whole league.

Klef Subban would have been amazing. But I agree with the argument 9 million is just to high.

We need to find the next Subban. Minus the contract and suspect defensive sorties 🙂

Extend Russell

Woodguy: Last two years combined:

Relative Zone Start Ration (ZSR)

Larsson -19.1
Subban +4.6

Relative Expected Goal Share (RelxGF%)

Larsson +2.73
Subban +1.11

If you concentrate on offensive metrics Subban is a killer and among the best in the NHL.

If you balance it with defensive metrics that include shot location he drops significantly.

To his defence Markov was not good in 15/16 (Subban was much better with Beaulieu).

The equation has always been “it’s what you create minus what you give up”

Never thought I’d say this but thank you WG.
You seem to have some sway in getting people to start believing that goal share not only matters but is the single most important stat. What +- should be.
The bear has been trying to convince people but he is a bear after all and quite grumpy.

I think we all hated losing Hall but finally people are starting to see what Chiareli saw last year.
Defense is just as important as offense.

The only gripe I have with him is the backup goalie. Every position matters, and to have a weak link in such a critical spot is inconvinciable.

And yes Nurse for Hamonic is the perfect senario. I wonder if it was even out there…

Glass

Woodguy,

I don’t know enough about either player, but how would you compare Hamonic to Larsson? Who is the better player/better fit for our team?

Googled and found Hamonic is a few years older than Larsson… I’m assuming he is better but not by a large margin.

stevezie

kinger_OIL,

I’ve thought about it, and i hate to say it but the Oilers “big year” is probably going to be 17-18.

This year we’re looking at Drai stepping out on his own and trying the wing, JP as a rookie, Lucic on a new team, Larsson on a new team, an iffy backup (either way), Nurse and Reinhart still becoming, Klefbom coming back from a major injury, Davidson as a sophmore and Yak maybe establishing himself finally. oh and Mcd’s first season as The Guy.

Next year will have it’s own problems, but Drai, and more importantly JP will be more established, plus a bunch of the above questions will be answered.

What I’m saying is unless JP and/or Drai are absolutely killing it i suspect Chia will keep all the powder dry he can this season. The only aging player he has is Sekera. Everyone else (even Lucic) can be expected to be either just as good or significantly better for 17-18.

We should get one real good year out of Connor’s elc.

This year is momentum building for that year.

Woodguy

Lowetide: Holy shit.

Holy shit indeed sir.

Woodguy

stevezie: Yep, but not to be a jerk back, but there were plenty of other options besides keeping the team in tact or Hall for Larsson.

I am okay with trading Hall for value, and i am… open to the idea that Larsson is a hidden gem. If it was Hall for Larsson and a protected 1st, I’m in.

We all knew the Oil needed D, so even if Larsson is what G and I pessimistically see him as Chia will be okay. Larsson is a good defensor.

It’s Drai falling apart without Hall, or Nurse never being more than a rough amd atheltic third pairing guy that will sink him.

You want to talk about rumours? If there was really a time when we couldhave traded Nurse for Hamonic…

Of course we’ll never know.

Nurse for Hamonic would have been ideal.

I’ll miss Hall.

bassguy

Lowetide,

..thanks LT…always read your blog and listen to you when I can…the reason for that song BB wrote is that he literally escaped out of the hand of the Soviets when they invaded his country, Hungary, in 1958 with his mother

HT Joe

Ducey: Your blueline looks better because its the same as the current one except Subban is better than Larrson (at least offensively).

However, the forwards are a wasteland. You have a strong LW 1-4, 2 C’s and 1 RW.

And there is no upside – except Connor.This team would need to win now. Does that look like a playoff team? No way.

And it year two? Instead of having Leon, JP, and Nurse coming on to provide internal improvement, you pretty much have the same group again (minus Hendricks).

Thanks for the discussion. Its fun when the hyperbole is left out.

Thanks to you too!

I agree with nearly everything you say except the “1R” comment… if Eberle is paired with RNH and Yak is hitched to McDavid, we’re up to 2R 😀

Agreed about poor centre depth… one reason I’m not happy about trading away Hall though is that I Drai 2016-2017 (without Hall) has little hope of being as good as last year’s Drai.

kinger_OIL

bassguy,

– Neat story BG!

stevezie

rickithebear,

Sounds to me like Subban is elite offensively and okay defensively, and Larsson is the inverse (oversimplification i know).

Maybe Subban is overpaid. But consider that Klefbom, Davidson, Sekera and even Fayne are all capablein the d zone (i don’t know if rickinumbers back this up), and Nurse and Reinhart are apprenticing to be this kind of defensor as well.

We have No One who scores the way PK does. Our need for him is dire and i think it is reflected in the forward’s scoring problems.

PK is overpaid. Hall and CmcD are underpaid. The team is fine.

It’s gf ga. You need at least one guy on the back who can help with the gf. The last championship team without this was probably Carolina?

fifthcartel

Caramel Batman,

When Puljujarvi fell to the Oilers I was ecstatic, but part of me worried they would feel this meant they 100% could move one of the established players now and not feel bad because “we got Jesse”.

stevezie

kinger_OIL: Again not to be a jerk, but no GM would have kept this team intact, with McD.

Yep, but not to be a jerk back, but there were plenty of other options besides keeping the team in tact or Hall for Larsson.

I am okay with trading Hall for value, and i am… open to the idea that Larsson is a hidden gem. If it was Hall for Larsson and a protected 1st, I’m in.

We all knew the Oil needed D, so even if Larsson is what G and I pessimistically see him as Chia will be okay. Larsson is a good defensor.

It’s Drai falling apart without Hall, or Nurse never being more than a rough amd atheltic third pairing guy that will sink him.

You want to talk about rumours? If there was really a time when we couldhave traded Nurse for Hamonic…

Of course we’ll never know.

rickithebear

stevezie: Creating offence at evens, the pp, skating, moving the puck (Zona had him an elite defender after his second year because he was so good at keeping the puck out of the D zone- removing the need for as much “box defence”).

I don’t know how much big hits impact the game, but they’re one defensive manoeuvre he excels at.

As a wise bear once said, the game is gf ga. He is awesome at one of those things and better than many at the other. Even by your definition, he is average (which would help this team). Combined with elite offence, and being at an age where defensive play often trends up for his player type, I’d say it’s clear he’d help.

Any motion abandoning THE HSCA and not achieving above league average results is just visual candy with no value.

1. Petry was one of the best Hits/gm d in the game.

But as one of the NYI sutters said.
we were taught to hit to get the puck.
you do not get the puck it is a waste of time!

THAT is NOt a POSITIBVE

2.Forwards generate Even G better than Dmen.
Subban was the 312 th best Even G scorer last 3 years. that would be a 11th best player on a team.

So abandoning the defence of the HSCA area is idiotic to get well below average even g production.
NOT a POSITIVE

3. you want Dmen to Pass the forwards the puck.
last couple yers PK is #2 in EVA/60 the one skill he is better than all the oilers.
But his really poor HSCA def numbers suggest a player that sskates the puck up and abondons the HSCA .
the media loves this.
But anyone with have a brain recognizes the neew speed of the NHL.
you want that assist rate to be Quick read transition passing putting high pressure on the opposition defence.

Not skating up the puck and alowing the opposition to set for Zone entry and def of HSCA.

Klefbom Top 30 EVA/60
Larsson Top 40 EVA/60
while both maintaining the top 60 HSCA defence.

4. HSCA D
not in the same league as
Larsson
Davidson
Klefbom

5. PKGA
Larrsson; Davidson; Klefbom top 20
Subban top 50

6. PPG:
Subban; 2 PPG 309 PPTOI
Sekera 2 PPG 186 PPTOI
Davidson 2 PPG 22.33 PPTOI

7. PPGF
Sekera #25 D 7.12
Subban #34 D 6.79

tell me were he truly improves our defence or offence 2 9 Fucking Million Dollars.
Coverage by unit:

EVEN:
Klefbom – Larsson 8.334M
Sekera – Davidson 6.925M

PP:
Davidson Elite PP Point shot
Sekera PP QB

PK:
5 Dmen in top 20 PKGA
reinhart; Gryba; Larsson; Klefbom; Davidson.

9…. Million for

Spengler

stevezie,

That really is the original question I was asking. To put it in the lingo of the site, do 2 kings and 3 fours beat 5 tens? 5 nines? 2 jacks, a ten and a pair of sixes?

bassguy

Hi Lt!….I havent posted in a while and I know I am long over due to make a contribution to your great site here..loved your RE series and the CANCON music selections…speaking of that, for Bendellson(sp?)..I played with BB Gabor for a while in vancouver in the middle 80″s..such a talented guy but ,sadly, really not stable for this or that reason…we recorded a beautiful album at Todd Rundgrens studio in Bearsville, ny but it was never released because of BB..and I could tell you tales of him and unfortunately he ended his life….wow, the last time I saw BB was at the side track where he phoned me as he had a tone of lyrics to give me after spending 6 weeks in jail for trying to burn Todds place down..for any one not knowing LT’s reference for this title today its Nyet,Nyet, Soviet by arguably one of canadians finest punk artists, (incredible singer and guitar player)BB Gabor Hegadish(sp?)

kinger_OIL

stevezie:
kinger_OIL,

Because you have two more years of cheap CmcD.

Hall was an elite player. The trade said balance at D is more important than an elite forward. If this is true the results should show quickly.

If we kept Taylor and missed, we’d still have Taylor. If we trade Taylor for much needed D and still miss our only option is to throw the gun, if you follow me.

– Again not to be a jerk, but no GM would have kept this team intact, with McD.

– I guess it boils done to whether you think Chia got taken advantage of in the trade of Hall due to him being a bad GM, or whatever other factors

– This team was going to trade Steve Austins in the off-season. Not making the playoffsr, AND keeping the band together was for sure not an option. The only other impact D moves was in a massive trade, where one elite D was packed for another.

– If Larsson ends up sh%ting the bed then Chia is in trouble: we can agree on that.

Woodguy

Caramel Batman: I agree that this is the appropriate comparison.

Chiarelli chose Larsson, Lucic, Nurse, Draisatl, and Puljarvi

over

Hall and Subban.

The two best players of the seven by a larger margin are Hall and Subban, and the only one with a chance to be better is Puljarvi.He’s the wildcard here, and if I was betting he’s the one Chiarelli didn’t want to give up.

Last two years combined:

Relative Zone Start Ration (ZSR)

Larsson -19.1
Subban +4.6

Relative Expected Goal Share (RelxGF%)

Larsson +2.73
Subban +1.11

If you concentrate on offensive metrics Subban is a killer and among the best in the NHL.

If you balance it with defensive metrics that include shot location he drops significantly.

To his defence Markov was not good in 15/16 (Subban was much better with Beaulieu).

The equation has always been “it’s what you create minus what you give up”

Cassandra

stevezie:
Side,

I agree. Drai was a C, big, young, cheap and just had a great and offensive sophomore season. His value may have equaled Hall’s. And we had 3Cs.

Chia chose the less proven asset. He may have been right but considering the importance of McD’s elc years i don’t like the bet. Take the sure thing.

Very, very, very interested to see where his career goes. I think it will define Chia’s Oiler career more than Larsson’s does.

I completely agree. More than anything else I think that Chiarelli chose Draisatl and Nurse over Hall.

Draisatl is a nice player, almost certain to be good, with not a lot of pedigree of being great.
I’m not a big believer in Nurse.

Hall, on the other hand is full value for the first overall pick, a world class player.

You can see why I hate the trade so much.

Gordies Elbow

Caramel Batman: I agree that this is the appropriate comparison.

Chiarelli chose Larsson, Lucic, Nurse, Draisatl, and Puljarvi

over

Hall and Subban.

The two best players of the seven by a larger margin are Hall and Subban, and the only one with a chance to be better is Puljarvi.He’s the wildcard here, and if I was betting he’s the one Chiarelli didn’t want to give up.

Hall, Subban, would take $6.8m extra in cap space, in an era of a flat cap.

Subban’s $9m contract is a killer.

hunter1909

treevojo:
Hall passed over for team canada again!

Those bastards!

Cassandra

tsg:
Caramel Batman,

Disagree with Lucic being on that list.No reason you can’t sign Lucic with Hall and Subban on the roster.

I agree, except I don’t think you would want to.

In any case, I’m describing how Chiarelli thought of the choices. For Chiarelli, Lucic made Hall expendable. La plus ca change …

stevezie

Side,

I agree. Drai was a C, big, young, cheap and just had a great and offensive sophomore season. His value may have equaled Hall’s. And we had 3Cs.

Chia chose the less proven asset. He may have been right but considering the importance of McD’s elc years i don’t like the bet. Take the sure thing.

Very, very, very interested to see where his career goes. I think it will define Chia’s Oiler career more than Larsson’s does.

Woodguy

oilersfan:
how do I find out advanced stats now that was on ice is down?

please and thanks in advance.

corsica.hockey

phenomal site

explore everything, click every header, there is a lot there

tsg

Caramel Batman,

Disagree with Lucic being on that list. No reason you can’t sign Lucic with Hall and Subban on the roster.

stevezie

Caramel Batman,

I do any of those deals, but Sekera’s ntc might get in the way.

I would try to dump Korpse on them instead of Fayne too. They only do that if they think Fayne is dead weight, but he actually contributes to the Oilers (for now).

Cassandra

rickithebear,

Tell me again how good Mark Fistric is?

Cassandra

Side: If it were Drai + JP + Nurse, I could see it for sure. But that ‘other asset’ and rumors of potentially Klefbom is where the deal died, imo.

What I love about these ‘near deals’ is seeing what happens after each team goes their own ways. I’m really curious to see where JP, Nurse, Subban and Draisaitl’s careers will be in a couple of years and see who would have gotten the best out of the deal if it happened.

I agree that this is the appropriate comparison.

Chiarelli chose Larsson, Lucic, Nurse, Draisatl, and Puljarvi

over

Hall and Subban.

The two best players of the seven by a larger margin are Hall and Subban, and the only one with a chance to be better is Puljarvi. He’s the wildcard here, and if I was betting he’s the one Chiarelli didn’t want to give up.

rickithebear

Every cup winning team has:
1. HSCA system coach
Tmac – Yes

2. top 10 HSCA Save5 goalie.
#2 Talbot – Yes

3. 3+ top 60 HSCA D hopefullty in top 4:
Larsson Top 10
Davidson top 30
Klefbom top 60

4. 3 lines of even Goal production. 2 #1 lines of EVG production.
EVG rank last 2 years
except for Forwards in first full season. then 15-16 rank
#27 Eberle
#41 Lucic
#61 Draisatl
#72 RNH
#72 Hall
#87 Mcdavid in 55% of season.
#130 Pouliot

JP?????

5. Strong +GD Special teams:
PK:
Davidson #5 PKGA D
Klefbom #14 PKGA D
Larsson top 20 PKGA D
Best PK forwrds
Hendricks
Mcdavid
pakarinen

PP:
Eberle #35 PPG
pouliot #70
RNH #112

stevezie

rickithebear: Name the positive things Subban is better than all our D at?

Creating offence at evens, the pp, skating, moving the puck (Zona had him an elite defender after his second year because he was so good at keeping the puck out of the D zone- removing the need for as much “box defence”).

I don’t know how much big hits impact the game, but they’re one defensive manoeuvre he excels at.

As a wise bear once said, the game is gf ga. He is awesome at one of those things and better than many at the other. Even by your definition, he is average (which would help this team). Combined with elite offence, and being at an age where defensive play often trends up for his player type, I’d say it’s clear he’d help.

Cassandra

stevezie: Maybe.

If he was, how much more would you offer? I’m pretty close to the max, there. That’s a lot of cap space we’re giving them, that has to be seen as part of it.

You are right, I can believe Bergevin thinking it wasn’t enough. But we can presume that Bergevin was waiting for Edmonton so he was inclined to make some version of that deal.

What would add to my Draisatl, JP, Nurse, Fayne package? I would add later round picks, but nothing in the first round and I wouldn’t do it without them taking Fayne. Trading for Subban is a win now kind of move and the Oilers need the cap space under this scenario for Demers and a third line center.

What I would do is trade Sekera instead of Fayne. So Sekera, Draisatl, JP, and Nurse for Subban. Indeed, that might be preferable for both teams.

What I doubt Montreal wanted was Klefbom instead of Nurse. Klefbom’s injury remains a major question mark. Plus, there is little evidence the league knows how good he is. Nurse, on the other hand, has an overblown reputation. I think Montreal would prefer Nurse.

But if they insist on Klefbom, then I take Puljarvi off the table and offer Klefbom, Draisatl, Nurse, and Fayne.

On the one side, you still get two killer lines and a killer top four out of that, and on the other is there any way that Montreal turns that down?

But then I think Subban is pretty close to the best defenseman in the league.

Side

stevezie:
Side,

I obviously cannot tell you the ask and admitted as much. I can say that Drai, Nurse and JP was the widely rumoured ask. This does not make it true, just the hypothetical I’m working off.

We know Subban was available to us and he went for Webber. So what’s the least Edmonton could give that’s better than Shea? I think the rumoured ask does it. Drai and JP are A to A+ prospects and Nurse is… a B? Not a bad offer.

If it takes Klef i don’t know if I do it. If I have to add Reinhart i might? I think the three is pretty close to beatingan aging, expensive Webber. But yes, pure conjecture.

If it were Drai + JP + Nurse, I could see it for sure. But that ‘other asset’ and rumors of potentially Klefbom is where the deal died, imo.

What I love about these ‘near deals’ is seeing what happens after each team goes their own ways. I’m really curious to see where JP, Nurse, Subban and Draisaitl’s careers will be in a couple of years and see who would have gotten the best out of the deal if it happened.

John Chambers

Caramel Batman,

I think the Subban-to-Edmonton trade was close but was a lower priority than other options.

The trades went down a day after Lucic / Demers visited YEG. Once Chiarelli saw that he could sign Lucic but that Demers’ price tag was going to be unreasonable the trade went down.

If however Demers was to sign in YEG but Lucic wasn’t, Hall wouldn’t have been expendable, and we probably see a package of Draisaitl, Nurse, Yakupov, Fayne, and a 1st for PK. I think, weighing his options, Bergevin takes a 4-for-1 trade with Fayne as a salary-balancer.

It’s not a matter of either GM being stupid; Chiarelli wasn’t willing to gut the team of prospects whilst Bergevin might’ve been holding out for a better package than the one I’ve outlined, knowing the fans in Montreal were going to heavily scrutinize any trade of PK.

Side

Caramel Batman: Montreal would trade Subban for Draisatl, Nurse, and Puljarvi, with Fayne as the short term salary throw in, because that is an infinitely better package than Shea Weber.I wouldn’t trade Draisatl for Weber straight up, let alone adding the other two.Weber’s contract, unlike Subban’s, is actually a boat anchor.

Moreover, Subban was traded 10 minutes after Larsson.Was that a coincidence?Or is it evidence that Subban was available and preferred some kind of package from Edmonton?

So we know Subban was available.And we know that the package above from Edmonton was much better than what Subban eventually received.

So the only things we don’t know is how dumb are Bergevin and Chiarelli?

Is Bergevin dumb enough to turn down the Edmonton package in favour of Shea Weber?

Is Chiarelli dumb enough to be unwilling to do the above package for Subban?

Both?

Cliffs:

– Everyone is dumber than me
– Because I know for a fact everyone is dumber than me
– The challenge comes from trying to determine how much dumber everyone is compared to me
– But what’s the point, because I know everyone’s already dumber than me

stevezie

Caramel Batman: Is Bergevin dumb enough to turn down the Edmonton package in favour of Shea Weber

Maybe.

If he was, how much more would you offer? I’m pretty close to the max, there. That’s a lot of cap space we’re giving them, that has to be seen as part of it.

stevezie

Side,

I obviously cannot tell you the ask and admitted as much. I can say that Drai, Nurse and JP was the widely rumoured ask. This does not make it true, just the hypothetical I’m working off.

We know Subban was available to us and he went for Webber. So what’s the least Edmonton could give that’s better than Shea? I think the rumoured ask does it. Drai and JP are A to A+ prospects and Nurse is… a B? Not a bad offer.

If it takes Klef i don’t know if I do it. If I have to add Reinhart i might? I think the three is pretty close to beatingan aging, expensive Webber. But yes, pure conjecture.

Chachi,

Sounds like you are not criticizing Treliving as much as debating the meaning of the word “ransom”, and that seems fair.

I think Treliving has been excellent so far. We’ll see if the “he might resign Russel” rumours are true.

Cassandra

Ducey:
HT Joe,

Why would MTL trade a #1 Dman for Leon, Nurse and JP? That’s a lot of futures for an established player.You would think they would want someone who could replace Subban to some degree.

It was pretty clear they were after Dubois and there was something cooking between Chai and MTL. After he was gone, would MTL have even proceeded?

I donno. A lot of maybes and speculation to start criticizing Chia and suggesting that Subban was a viable option.

Montreal would trade Subban for Draisatl, Nurse, and Puljarvi, with Fayne as the short term salary throw in, because that is an infinitely better package than Shea Weber. I wouldn’t trade Draisatl for Weber straight up, let alone adding the other two. Weber’s contract, unlike Subban’s, is actually a boat anchor.

Moreover, Subban was traded 10 minutes after Larsson. Was that a coincidence? Or is it evidence that Subban was available and preferred some kind of package from Edmonton?

So we know Subban was available. And we know that the package above from Edmonton was much better than what Subban eventually received.

So the only things we don’t know is how dumb are Bergevin and Chiarelli?

Is Bergevin dumb enough to turn down the Edmonton package in favour of Shea Weber?

Is Chiarelli dumb enough to be unwilling to do the above package for Subban?

Both?

rickithebear

The game is Gf and GA:

EVGF:
top 300 scorers. (teams top 10)
93.2% of the EVG come from Forwards.
1. Pass the Forwards the damn Puck:
EVA/60
Only complete fools would even think for a second Dmen abandoning there post and trying to score is a positive!
See current media!

PPGF:
top 150 PPG scorers (Teams 1st unit)
92% OF PPG come from Forwards.
2. Pass the forwards the Damn puck!
or
3. Get one of the elite Dmen that can generate High PPG rates .
There were 4 Dmen that would be considered top PPG Scorers.
OEL; Weber; Faulk; Burns;
Last year Davidson (in a small sample size) showed #1 Elite PPG/60 production.

EVGA:
The league average for Shooting % is 8.5%. The 19.5 Low Scoring Chance Area Shots (0-8.5%) get 25% of a games goals.
The 10.5 HSCA shots (8.5 to 25%) get 75% of goals.

Elite HSCA dmen give up 7.5-8.75 HSCA shot rang
Lindholm; Weber; Vanic; Larsson; Davidson; K. Miller

top 60 HSCAD give up 8.75 to 10.25 HSCA shots
Vatanen; Klefbom; Brodie

Avg HSCA Dmen give up 10.25 to 11.25 HSCA shots

Below avg HSCA D give up 11.25 to 12.25 HSCA shots
Subban; Hamonic

Awful HSCA dmen give up 12.25+ HSCA shots.
Gio; D. Hamilton; Reinhart; Nurse; Faulk; Barrie

10.5 HSCA shots gives up 75% of leagues goals.
7.5 Shots gives up 7.5/10.5 X 75% = 53.6% of league goals.
13.5 shots gives up 13.5/10.5 X 75% 96.4% of league goals.
that is a variance of 42.8% of the leagues total goals from controlling the HSCA area.

the Low Scoring Chance area largely sees avg of 17.5 to 21.5 LSCA shots
17.5shots/19.5 22.4%
19.5% shots 25.0%
21.5/19.5 = 27.6%
That is largely a 5.2% of total goal variance.
3. Get the best HSCA D depth you can. Especially for your top 4

4. Get the best HSCA Save% goalie you can get.

PKGA:
63 of the top 120 PK players are Dmen.
They are equal partners on the GA side of special teams.
PKGA d have more value to team Goal differential than PPGF D.

Get as many top end PKGA D.

Name the positive things Subban is better than all our D at?

Chachi

stevezie:
LadiesloveSmid,

Chachi,

You, my friend, are a hard man for GMs to impress.

Not at all. I am extremely impressed at how Ken Holland and Tom Rowe took advantage of Chayka. I am impressed that Ray Shero was able to get Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson. Those were great deals by those GMs. 20 games of a crappy Kris Russell for a replacement level third pairing defenceman, a prospect who might make the NHL as a fourth liner if everything breaks right and a second round pick is not a “ransom”.

Side

stevezie:
Spengler,

You’re being silly. Your argument was “it’s dumb to put yourself in the position where one guy getting hurt means you’re fucked “, right?

Well it’s not ideal, but it’s tough to avoid. A lot of championship teams find themselves in that same position.

Obviously depth is great, but it’s not essential if your top is good enough. Your sarcasm actually holds true for Pittsburgh and Chicago.

Plus we wouldn’t just have Hall, McD and Subban, we’d have Nuge, Ebs, Klefbom, Sekera, Pou, Lucic (or whoever we sign instead now that we kept Hall), Davidson…

We’re not entirely without depth.

My team would kill the current one, if everyone was healthy. And if you think it’s foolish to count on that- it is impossible to win the cup without significant luck (did you know LA only dressed sox defenceman the entirety of their first cup run? That’s amazing! )

I think the odds are better that Subban stays healthy than they are of one of two of the kids greatly exceeding their RE and no one missing theirs. That’s where we are right now.

Can you tell me exactly who Montreal was asking for in the Subban trade? I see you still include Klefbom as the ‘haves’ as well as other players. Now, if the Subban trade included Klefbom, or Sekera or Nuge or Ebs, would you still be happy with having Subban in addition to losing Nurse + JP + Draisaitl?

I think the only silly thing that happens in this thread, is people assuming that Chia wouldn’t trade Draisaitl + JP + Fayne + Nurse for Subban. I really have no clue why people keep suggesting or assuming this is the case.

Again, the ask must have been pretty big if it caused Pete to back out, given that he overpaid for Larsson as is.

Ducey

HT Joe: Okay… if we still have Fayne… he’s in at 3.6, Reinhart is out at 2…

Hall (6M) – Nuge (6) – Eberle (6)
Lucic (6) – Connor (3.5) – Yak (2.5)
Pou (4) – Letestu (1.8) – Maroon? (1.5)
Hendricks (1.8) – Lander (1) – Kassian (1.5)

Klefbom (4.17) – Subban (9)
Sekera (5.5) – Fayne (3.6)
Davidson (1.4) – Oesterle (600 K)
Goalies (5)
Korpse (.5)
Cap hit (adding to your numbers) ~ $71.4

Still below the $73 cap hit… and honestly, that blueline looks better to me…

Your blueline looks better because its the same as the current one except Subban is better than Larrson (at least offensively).

However, the forwards are a wasteland. You have a strong LW 1-4, 2 C’s and 1 RW.

And there is no upside – except Connor. This team would need to win now. Does that look like a playoff team? No way.

And it year two? Instead of having Leon, JP, and Nurse coming on to provide internal improvement, you pretty much have the same group again (minus Hendricks).

Thanks for the discussion. Its fun when the hyperbole is left out.

stevezie

Ca$h-McMoney!,

ATLOil,

Your point is a good one. I think he remains elite at evens, it is his pp scoring that is weak. With CmcD here to make the pp go (with a hypothetical Subban), that weakness will be less painful.

ATLOil

stevezie,

I like Hall. I do. He is a very good NHL winger. Elite? Not convinced. He is now on NJ, the defense first at all costs team, and based on last year’s results is their number three goal scorer behind Palmieri and Henrique.

Just sayin…

Gordies Elbow

HT Joe: Okay… if we still have Fayne… he’s in at 3.6, Reinhart is out at 2…

Hall (6M) – Nuge (6) – Eberle (6)
Lucic (6) – Connor (3.5) – Yak (2.5)
Pou (4) – Letestu (1.8) – Maroon? (1.5)
Hendricks (1.8) – Lander (1) – Kassian (1.5)

Klefbom (4.17) – Subban (9)
Sekera (5.5) – Fayne (3.6)
Davidson (1.4) – Oesterle (600 K)
Goalies (5)
Korpse (.5)
Cap hit (adding to your numbers) ~ $71.4

Still below the $73 cap hit… and honestly, that blueline looks better to me…

I’m not sure that I prefer that defense to this one:
Klefbom-Larsson
Sekera-Davidson
Nurse-Fayne

Throw in trading three expansion draft exempt players (Nurse, Draisaitl, JP) for one that needs to be protected, and you’re moving a lot of the futures and still playing a player like Oesterle for 16 minutes per night.

McLellan/Chiarelli apparently want to change the style of play. Given the lack of success with the previous 5 man overpressure (swarm) system, I can’t say I blame them for wanting to go to a simpler system.

Side

HT Joe: Not a reasonable argument.

Missing McDavid for over half a season, having historically high injuries, and having a sub-standard blueline unable to help drive offense all season long got us 29th place.Subban on the blueline, feeding McDavid and Hall on separate lines would go a long way in helping.

*EDIT*
Right now, JP is a rookie who needs shelter and Nurse is at best a strong 3rd pairing defensemen.While we hope both develop to provide depth in the future, right now, neither has proven that they can offer depth better than standard replacement level players.

As I said, Oilers have had this injury bug for years and years now. Hall just finished his first 82 game season. People have been saying every year since we had the Austins “If we have a healthy Hall, Eberle and Nuge we won’t be last place!”

So what you’re suggesting is, trade our talent and future for one player, and replace them with standard players.

Putting all of our eggs in 3 baskets.

Lackadaisical

Quick question, is there a stat tied to the number of Dangerous shots that a particular line allowed defensively? Along with or without to suss out the individual perhaps? I suppose it would need QualComp too.

Side

HT Joe: Okay… if we still have Fayne… he’s in at 3.6, Reinhart is out at 2…

Hall (6M) – Nuge (6) – Eberle (6)
Lucic (6) – Connor (3.5) – Yak (2.5)
Pou (4) – Letestu (1.8) – Maroon? (1.5)
Hendricks (1.8) – Lander (1) – Kassian (1.5)

Klefbom (4.17) – Subban (9)
Sekera (5.5) – Fayne (3.6)
Davidson (1.4) – Oesterle (600 K)
Goalies (5)
Korpse (.5)
Cap hit (adding to your numbers) ~ $71.4

Still below the $73 cap hit… and honestly, that blueline looks better to me…

Well, it’s all speculation. We don’t know the exact details of the trade, but imo, if it involved Drai + JP + Nurse + Klefbom, that’s a no go for me. But, from what I recall it was Drai + 4th pick + Nurse + other asset. If Chia was willing to overpay for Larsson by giving up Hall, I’m willing to guess the ‘other asset’ was a lot more than just Fayne.

stevezie

Spengler,

The morei think of it the more i am coming to believe net goodness is the key. As long as you don’t have one glaring, easily exposed weakness (usually goaltending or even strength scoring), the key to winning a hockey game is net goodness, not its distribution.

Side,

You’re being silly. Your argument was “it’s dumb to put yourself in the position where one guy getting hurt means you’re fucked “, right?

Well it’s not ideal, but it’s tough to avoid. A lot of championship teams find themselves in that same position.

Obviously depth is great, but it’s not essential if your top is good enough. Your sarcasm actually holds true for Pittsburgh and Chicago.

Plus we wouldn’t just have Hall, McD and Subban, we’d have Nuge, Ebs, Klefbom, Sekera, Pou, Lucic (or whoever we sign instead now that we kept Hall), Davidson…

We’re not entirely without depth.

My team would kill the current one, if everyone was healthy. And if you think it’s foolish to count on that- it is impossible to win the cup without significant luck (did you know LA only dressed sox defenceman the entirety of their first cup run? That’s amazing! )

I think the odds are better that Subban stays healthy than they are of one of two of the kids greatly exceeding their RE and no one missing theirs. That’s where we are right now.

HT Joe

Side: Oilers would not only be giving up Defensive depth, but forward depth as well to secure a single player. But who needs a team, or depth, just throw Hall, McDavid and Subban out there. Hall and McDavid already got us to 29th place, surely throwing Subban in there and subtracting a bunch of depth will bring us to playoff contention.

Not a reasonable argument.

Missing McDavid for over half a season, having historically high injuries, and having a sub-standard blueline unable to help drive offense all season long got us 29th place. Subban on the blueline, feeding McDavid and Hall on separate lines would go a long way in helping.

*EDIT*
Right now, JP is a rookie who needs shelter and Nurse is at best a strong 3rd pairing defensemen. While we hope both develop to provide depth in the future, right now, neither has proven that they can offer depth better than standard replacement level players.