THE RIGHT PROFILE

by Lowetide

One of the things we haven’t talked much about this summer (or at least not enough) is how close the Adam Larsson addition gets us to balance on defense. Larsson is surely a key, but Brandon Davidson is as well if he is moved to RH side. I think that is likely based on the current alignment.

  • Klefbom—Larsson
  • Sekera—Fayne
  • Nurse—Davidson

If you look at the improvement on defense as a three summer issue (clearly it is, PC was unable to balance things completely in two summers) this is probably the best defensive set for opening night.

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER

OILERS D VOLLMAN BLUE 25 OR MORE

All of the men who appeared in the shutdown quadrant are likely to be back and a part of the top 6D (imo) this season. Davidson can play RH side (as can Sekera) and we should remember just how effective Klefbom was in his 30 games. A lot of this season is going to be about the health of this team’s best defensemen.

NJ VOLLMAN

nj vollman dThe Larsson spot is the ‘French Guiana work camp in Papillon’ area of NHL hockey. I am uncertain how you feel about Edmonton’s defense, but for me the top two pairings (as above) offer enough quality and experience to at least push for the playoffs. One concern that has been mentioned:

  • Andrej Sekera 567 NHL games
  • Mark Fayne 385 NHL games
  • Adam Larsson 274 NHL games
  • Oscar Klefbom 107 NHL games

A lot of talk about Klefbom’s lack of experience, but I don’t have much worry in that area. He was helping Justin Schultz as a rookie and was effective a year ago until injury. The concern about this group is another injury spree and that’s why the Oilers should really consider adding another veteran defender (RHD, puck mover).

TWO-WAY BLUE

I count Andrej Sekera, Adam Larsson, Oscar Klefbom and Brandon Davidson as being two-way types, despite BD’s quiet NHL numbers (his junior numbers were more hopeful). I am not certain about the two-way ability of Darnell Nurse or Griffin Reinhart at the NHL level, and both men could end up being closer to Mark Fayne than Oscar Klefbom (in terms of offensive ability). Here are the NHLE’s for both men over the years:

Darnell Nurse

  • Age 17: 15.8
  • Age 18: 20.5
  • Age 19: 24.0
  • Age 20: NHL totals 69, 3-7-10

It is reasonable to expect a spike in points this coming season, and if Nurse is handled differently (as in time away from Andrej Sekera on the top pairing) the possession and boxcar numbers should be better. This is not a sure thing, however, and the Oilers will be vulnerable without other options (in case the young man struggles again this season).

Griffin Reinhart

  • Age 17: 13.7
  • Age 18: 10.9
  • Age 19: 10.3
  • Age 20: 14.4
  • Age 21: 12.8

Reinhart’s offense was shy of Nurse’s all down the line (I have used the Roatis) but Darnell’s rookie year was lower than the NHLE may have suggested. I think GR is probably closer to the Fayne family than Nurse, but it is not clear to me that one is clearly better than the other at this time:

DARNELL NURSE 2015-16

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.31 (No. 6 among regular defensemen)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 4.29 (one point in 14 minutes)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 45.5
  • Qual Comp: 3rd pairing
  • Qual Team: 2nd pairing
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -11.7
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 120/2.5
  • Boxcars: 69GP, 3-7-10 .145
  • Information via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com, behindthenet.ca and hockey-reference.

GRIFFIN REINHART 15-16

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.13 (7th among D)
  • 5×4 points per 60: nil
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 46.3
  • Qual Comp: 3rd pairing
  • Qual Team: 1st pairing
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -9.0
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 24 shots
  • Boxcars: 29, 0-1-1 .034
  • Information via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com, behindthenet.ca and hockey-reference.

I believe Darnell Nurse is the better prospect. Is he?

 

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Woodguy

meanashell11:
Woodguy,

Looking at historical yes, but with an eye to predict the future. That requires a theory about what the historical facts imply.

If you want to “imply” anything then sure.

If you want to know “how much of this predicts that next year” , then it’s just correlations that have been determined using all the data since the lockout.

Woodguy

Bruce McCurdy: Gryba! Gryba! Rah! Rah! Rah!

Of course the 25-62 pairing was a true third pairing meaning more appropriate match-ups for Nurse. In theory so was the Nurse-Clendening duo, it just didn’t perform well.

Yes it does. Schultz was extraordinarily poor at what I call “Ricki’s box protection” even as I’m not exactly sure how that is defined. But he had a tendency to give up 10-bell chances due to uber-soft defensive plays where a determined opponent could drive right through him (or through his space) to get to the kill zone. I haven’t seen enough of Larsson to state with certainty by eye, but all the stats seem to suggest that box protection is his specialty.

Agreed that’s what the NJD fancystats guys say too.

*crosses fingers*

blainer

Bruce McCurdy: Gryba! Gryba! Rah! Rah! Rah!

Of course the 25-62 pairing was a true third pairing meaning more appropriate match-ups for Nurse. In theory so was the Nurse-Clendening duo, it just didn’t perform well.

Yes it does. Schultz was extraordinarily poor at what I call “Ricki’s box protection” even as I’m not exactly sure how that is defined. But he had a tendency to give up 10-bell chances due to uber-soft defensive plays where a determined opponent could drive right through him (or through his space) to get to the kill zone. I haven’t seen enough of Larsson to state with certainty by eye, but all the stats seem to suggest that box protection is his specialty.

Agreed. Jultz was afraid to go into the corners because he would have to take a hit to make a play. got caught up in the pay a lot and rarely put any effort in to get back …could NOT make a pass.. OMG I could go on forever. Just so happy he is not here next year.

This team and D is sooooo much better with that subtraction alone.

Pouzar

fifthcartel:
Can the Oilers just please sign Versteeg to a 1 year 1.3m deal?

Or Boyes.

But yeah f^ckit, come on down JP. SIGH.

Kiltymcbagpipes

G Money: I AM BEING AN IT NERD!

AND DON’T TELL ME WHAT TO DO!

WHAT’S WRONG WITH MY ABACUS!

WAIT, WHY ARE WE SHOUTING.

I am convinced you are Dennis from ‘It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia’

enter snappy comeback here Dennis —->

G Money

Lowetide: and when revisions are made, there is a sense of new discovery, not of having misled until that moment.

Huh. How incredibly offensive.

Woodguy

Lowetide: All the same, I admire him for putting that in the soup. So much of what I read is black and white, and when revisions are made, there is a sense of new discovery, not of having misled until that moment. A bit of humility would go a long way in people accepting things imo. This is supposed to be fun. Seriously.

Agreed.

“Let’s have some fun out here. This game is fun goddammit!”

fifthcartel

Lowetide,

I thought it was funny. 🙂

leadfarmer

Mike Richards? Kris Versteeg? What is going on? 5 years ago sure. Not now

leadfarmer

Sorry to derail the thread but just wanted to comment on the Nurse talk from yesterday. Am I the only one that thinks Darnell Nurse is exactly where Darnell Nurse is expected to be. Last year I was warning not to get blinded by the shiny new toy, he is going to falter, struggle, there is no depth to shelter him, and people will give up on him. Did it happen? Exactly how I said it would. Nurses’ second best attribute is his physicality and he was not physically ready. Sure his stats page says he is 210 lbs but he looks not filled out for his body type.

And when people compare highly drafted defensemen one of the first things to come out is Chris Pronger. STOP! If you are comparing any developing defenseman to a generational talent you are not being fair to that kid. Generational talents are that for a reason. You are probably not getting one.

Then people compare to other defensemen drafted high 5-10 years ago and what they did in their early 20s. But people don’t realize those days are gone. Defense has changed. The game moves a lot faster and systems are very structured especially for defensemen. Defenseman coming in and dominating in their first pro season is a thing of the past. The way Larsson, and Hedman developed is more of what should be expected now. These guys have to be sheltered in their first pro season, and probably their second pro season. So what should you expect from Nurse. An ok season this year, and probably a step forward the following season. Aaron Ekblad has no idea how lucky he is to be drafted with a team with a lot of depth that collectively could shelter him. Nurse’s numbers didn’t look too bad when he was sheltered by Sekera. Imagine what they would look if he was sheltered by Brian Campbell and overall a good 2 way team.

LadiesloveSmid

Dmitry Orlov seems to have played some extended time at RD. ~675 ES minutes with Oprik/Schmidt where he played left side and ~420 ES minutes with Chorney/Niskanen where he played right side. Positive relCF% with everyone but Orpik, and negative xGF% with Chorney/Schmidt. May just come down to partners there.

Scored 1.24 5v5 Pts/60 last season

Will seemingly be exposed by WSH at the end of the season and having contract disputes at the moment.

Water Fire

Lowetide: All the same, I admire him for putting that in the soup. So much of what I read is black and white, and when revisions are made, there is a sense of new discovery, not of having misled until that moment. A bit of humility would go a long way in people accepting things imo. This is supposed to be fun. Seriously.

Spoken for truth

Versteeg ain’t what he used to be. Hes a vet but does he help? I don’t see the IT.

The Oilers at this point have young centres and need wingers to take the pressure off including physical and I don’t think he can do that

meanashell11

Woodguy,

Looking at historical yes, but with an eye to predict the future. That requires a theory about what the historical facts imply.

Ryan

wheatnoil:
Bruce McCurdy,

In the games I tracked last year, Schultz had (by a fair margin) the greatest rate of defensive zone turnovers among Oiler D. Larsson, in the 8 games tracked, had the least among NJ defenceman.

There’s for sure sample size issues here, but I wonder that also contributed to the xG – CF disparity.

There were some good blogs during the Stanley cup.

When Schultz played, every coach was chasing after him with their top line. Quite the cat and mouse game.

Fortunately for him, the Pens were able to shelter him with Letang.

fifthcartel

Can the Oilers just please sign Versteeg to a 1 year 1.3m deal?

wheatnoil

Bruce McCurdy,

In the games I tracked last year, Schultz had (by a fair margin) the greatest rate of defensive zone turnovers among Oiler D. Larsson, in the 8 games tracked, had the least among NJ defenceman.

There’s for sure sample size issues here, but I wonder that also contributed to the xG – CF disparity.

Bruce McCurdy

Woodguy: Situation Rel.CF%
DARNELL.NURSE WITH ANDREJ.SEKERA -5.94
DARNELL.NURSE WITH JUSTIN.SCHULTZ -3.1
DARNELL.NURSE WITH ADAM.CLENDENING -6.03
DARNELL.NURSE WITH MARK.FAYNE -6.88
DARNELL.NURSE WITH ERIC.GRYBA 0.88

Gryba! Gryba! Rah! Rah! Rah!

Of course the 25-62 pairing was a true third pairing meaning more appropriate match-ups for Nurse. In theory so was the Nurse-Clendening duo, it just didn’t perform well.

Woodguy: I find the xGF% and corsi disparity fascinating with some players.
Schultz is certainly one of them. (corsi better than xGF%)
Larsson is another, but the other way (xGF% better than corsi)
Since xGF% uses shot location data to weight the shot attempts, I think its much more descriptive of what actually happened than corsi.
It certainly matches the eye better.

Yes it does. Schultz was extraordinarily poor at what I call “Ricki’s box protection” even as I’m not exactly sure how that is defined. But he had a tendency to give up 10-bell chances due to uber-soft defensive plays where a determined opponent could drive right through him (or through his space) to get to the kill zone. I haven’t seen enough of Larsson to state with certainty by eye, but all the stats seem to suggest that box protection is his specialty.

Bruce McCurdy

Lowetide: All the same, I admire him for putting that in the soup. So much of what I read is black and white, and when revisions are made, there is a sense of new discovery, not of having misled until that moment. A bit of humility would go a long way in people accepting things imo. This is supposed to be fun. Seriously.

Hear bloody hear.

Woodguy

Stelio Kontos:
I’ve been thinking for a long time that the analytics is starting to overextend itself. We are getting into the climate change realm, where models and theories are more important than the experimental.

That’s not a good analogy.

Fancystats isn’t theoretical.

Its examination of results.

All the data is from the NHL game sheets and everything done to slice and dice those results do not change the results.

No theories, just different ways of looking at what actually happened.

LadiesloveSmid

I’ve got a lot of time for Versteeg, if not only to stop Calgary from shoring up their weak winger depth

Signing him gives you the option to stick Pulju in the minors and either keep Drai at centre, or try to trade Yak for a centre and move Drai to wing

Woodguy

Lowetide:
With advanced stats guys, I think the key when reading them is to see if there is an acknowledgement of the variables, luck and damn difficulty in sussing these things out based on what we know. Here is what Manny Elk says about this stuff:

“In its present condition, 5v5 xGF% is NOT A BETTER PREDICTOR of future 5v5 GF% than CF% at the player level. Regular skaters’ 5v5 xGF% in one >400 TOI season did not yield a higher correlation with the next season’s 5v5 GF% than the same test performed with CF%.12 The same variance observed in early shot quality analyses prevents on-ice xG from predicting real goals, or itself for that matter, in any practical way. Though descriptive of shot quality, the xG model has not yet shown to be appreciably predictive of future shot quality or goals at the on-ice level.”

For me, that tells me he feels he is on to something but cannot yet prove it. That is what any stat has to go through, the vetting process and queries up the ass. As it should be.

To be clear:

xGF% is a better predictor of future goals WITHIN a season than corsi,

Its better right away for players and it takes about 20 games for it to be better for teams.

Its is also way, way better at predicting individual goals than corsi within a season (almost twice as good)

Lastly, its widely agreed that xGF describes the actual play better than CF and when your main interest is analyzing what happened, its much, much better.

Corsi is still better at predicting GF% from season to season, but remember that it still only describes about 33% of the next season’s GF%.

The gold in all this stuff still doesn’t lie in the raw numbers themselves, but it lies in the Relative measures and WOWY to tease out player performance.

Gayfish

I’ve been thinking for a long time that the analytics is starting to overextend itself. We are getting into the climate change realm, where models and theories are more important than the experimental.

frjohnk

wheatnoil: They should be interested in Versteeg’s services whether they trade Yak or not. Versteeg gives allows Drai to play C and gives you unicorns.

Oilers are not interested in signing a vet winger.

More interested in opening up brand new shiny toy.

The new scratch they want to itch is to see McDavid and JP together.

May not happen right off the bat, but it will happen soon.

Bruce McCurdy

stevezie: That the smart kids scoff at raw corsi but continue to scoff at those who once scoffed at raw corsi is pretty funny.

But the smart kids are scoffing at raw Corsi for the right reasons!

Centre of attention

wheatnoil: They should be interested in Versteeg’s services whether they trade Yak or not. Versteeg gives allows Drai to play C and gives you unicorns.

Yeah having another veteran on Drai’s wing would help him adjust to center on the third line agreed.

And also, Richards never played with Versteeg. After checking it turned out I was just panicking and drawing the worst possible conclusion haha. I really hope they don’t sign Richards with 3C duties in mind. That will be painful regardless of who his wingers are.

Bruce McCurdy

On the other hand, Lowetide as “the town square” is an analogy I can get behind.

Bruce McCurdy

Having read this thread I’m starting to realize that “analogy” doesn’t mean what I used to think it means.

wheatnoil

Centre of attention: If they are trading Yak they should be interested in Versteegs services. Didn’t Versteeg play on Richards line in LA…?

Oh brother.

They should be interested in Versteeg’s services whether they trade Yak or not. Versteeg gives allows Drai to play C and gives you unicorns.

Centre of attention

Lowetide:
Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger 14m14 minutes ago

Kris Versteeg is about to be a free agent again. Due to insurance complications Versteeg is expected to return to North America this week.

Interesting…

If they are trading Yak they should be interested in Versteegs services. Didn’t Versteeg play on Richards line in LA…?

Oh brother.

blainer

The trade I think would be Ok would be Davidson for Trouba. Expansion wouldn’t screw that up.

Davey is not the sexy name and doubt Winnipeg would do it but it would be a great trade for both clubs.

The money really works in the Pegs favour there though so that may be a problem for the Oil. He is on a great contract.

wheatnoil

So, apparently Kris Versteeg is back in the UFA market. I’m sure there will be a few teams after him, but he would nicely shore up the RW depth chart. Wouldn’t give him much term though.

LadiesloveSmid
Woodguy

Babcock with a good explanation on why Righty-Lefty is so important: (video)

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/world-cup-of-hockey/gotta-hear-babcock-explains-lefty-d-men-important/

leadfarmer

So I can see the Oilers following in the Minnesota Vikings footsteps this year. Move into a new stadium with pressure to have success. Come into the season with inadequate depth: Quarterback for Vikings, goaltending and RHD for Oilers. Overpay for a guy to come in and help out when inadequate depth gets exposed

blainer

Ok here is my stupid analogy for Ricki’s box on Nurse.

The new guy at Tims is in training and in his first week ..Lets call him Nurse..

First week… He screws up the cash every day and mixes up over 50%/60 of the orders he takes.

2nd week…. he only screws up the cash three times and only mixes up the orders 25%/60.

Third week.. Cash balances every day and screws up 0%/60 of the orders he takes.

Nurse is bottom of the league in his first year of protecting the box

Nurse 2nd year he ends up middle of the league

Nurse third year.. he is top 20 in the league for protecting the box.

Nurse is in Training .. lets give him some time to actually get trained..

Centre of attention

G Money: On a related note, Science Assholes Always Trying to Prove Shit have shown that sprinters typically reach peak speeds in their early 20s.

Suspect that holds true for hockey players as well … in which case we have three to four more years of Connor McDavid actually GETTING FASTER EVERY YEAR.

(I thought the last part justified shouting a bit)

Whats even crazier is how he can stick handle at those speeds. There have been lots of guys who are fast, but they don’t have the hands to make a play at that speed.

Michael Grabner is a great example, one of the fastest guys in the league. He gets 2 or 3 break aways every game, but he can’t cash or make a play because his hands don’t keep up with his feet.

McDavid has the complete package though. His brain, feet, and hands are all insanely fast. We better savor it while it lasts.

LadiesloveSmid

According to Sunil’s line combos at coppernblue, RNH is only over 50% xGF% with Eberle(59.36 with Khaira) and Draisaitl(56.02 with Draisaitl) as his RWs. Hall was on that Drai line and Khaira-Eberle was a small sample.

Think Puljujarvi’s either gotta blow the doors out in camp, they play Eberle on RNH’s line instead of McD’s, or they get a 3C and move Draisaitl to 2RW.

Pouliot’s results on his most common lines are so damn strong, what a wonderful player.

G Money

Mark Scheifele, who trains with Connor McDavid in the summer, said McDavid is an even faster skater this season.— Craig Custance (@CraigCustance) 5 September 2016

On a related note, Science Assholes Always Trying to Prove Shit have shown that sprinters typically reach peak speeds in their early 20s.

Suspect that holds true for hockey players as well … in which case we have three to four more years of Connor McDavid actually GETTING FASTER EVERY YEAR.

(I thought the last part justified shouting a bit)

frjohnk

rickithebear:
Frojohnk:

Nurse: 26.67 SF/60 32.03 Sa/60
He skates up
abandoning the HSCA def system
Does not penetrate the HSCA
Failing to get a High quality Shot
chases counter attack
never truly catching up
allowing the 2nd most HSCA/60 in the game.

Yes.

Because HDCSA is the only metric on how to evaluate Dmen.

Fistric for Nurse.

We probably need to add.

stush18

G Money: I AM BEING AN IT NERD!

AND DON’T TELL ME WHAT TO DO!

WHAT’S WRONG WITH MY ABACUS!

WAIT, WHY ARE WE SHOUTING.

THE LOUDEST PEOPLE ARE SMARTEST. ASK CARAMEL!

rickithebear

brett burns:
2.42 EVGA/60

forwards need to generate 2.73 EVGF/60 to have a chance at a wild card playoff spot.
59/443 forwards can generate that rate.
you need 3 #2 forwards

kopitar; Stamkos; Saad 2.72 24.5M cannot w/ burns 30.26M for 4/5 of a line.
That is 41.45% of a 73m cap with non playoff results cause of his defence.

Duchene; Perry; Hall 2.70 20.625M cannot w/ burns 26.385M for 4/5
36.03% of 73M cap for 17.4% of a team

Adam Larsson
1.58 EVG/60
Forwards need 1.89EVGF/60
297/443 can do that.
that is 3 #10 forwards.

King-J. Mitchell – Ferlund can do that 4.575M w/ Larsson 8.742M
11.98% for 17.4% of team.

Burns a #1 D.
you guys have zero understanding of how Burns abondoning the HSCA to drive his league average even offensive production drags down the team.

It takes away from more efficient elite forward production.

It is one of the worst use of cap dollars in the game.
Seriously it is crazy how out of touch with cap production that is.

burns 2.42 GF/60 2.42 GA/60
He is a -.31 EVGF/60 relative to a playoff spot.
they made the playoffs and cup finals in spite of him.

#1 D
That is so HF BOARDS!

G Money

stush18: BEING IT NERD!

AND I DONT MEAN YOUR ABACUS!

I AM BEING AN IT NERD!

AND DON’T TELL ME WHAT TO DO!

WHAT’S WRONG WITH MY ABACUS!

WAIT, WHY ARE WE SHOUTING.

stevezie

Lowetide,

Wait ’till i get going.

This post was a great read. The real fun the when the smart folk disagree. Or when the townsfolk start worshipping one smart kid and demonizing another, only it turns out they were bith false smart folks and the smartest folk has never even been heard of which leads some townsfolk to deny the existence of smart at all while others believe themselves to be the promised arrival of the true intelligence…