SUPERSTITION

by Lowetide

When you believe in things that you don’t understand
Then you suffer
Superstition ain’t the way

-Stevie Wonder

If you haven’t read it, you must read it. That isn’t an order, that is just stating the obvious. I won’t quote it much because you should read the words in their proper order. It is here. Wow.

  • Friedman: In Hall’s case, a couple of Oilers believe the organization wanted to make it easier for McDavid’s influence to grow in the room. “Taylor’s a dominant personality,” one said. “That’s not a criticism. That’s who he is.”

Wow. That is a fascinating passage. I believe it, Friedman dug up a brilliant gem and in doing so cast an enormous light on the thinking of Oilers management in regard to this player (Hall). It also suggests (imo) the organization continues to make decisions based on things other than winning. It sounds like they were convinced Hall was not a positive influence in the group. Your mileage may vary, but for me the quality of this player is such that living with whatever downside there may be would be the play here. Edmonton has been worried about the mix ever since they became a losing organization. Edmonton has been worried about the mix ever since they became a losing organization.

That said, most of this goes away if the Oilers post a winning season in 2016-17—making the lack of balance on the current roster even more curious. Peter Chiarelli is a veteran general manager, I believe he is well aware of the need for at least one more move to improve this group. What’s he building in there?

Yost is a smart cookie and I think this passage really matches the reality of this morning. The anecdotes of the Hall deal are all the things we usually hear about this kind of trade—and if you are upset now, wait until you read the 2016-17 boxcars a year from now. Peter Chiarelli needs to make certain that the Oilers turn north this season, and that means a year of roster change is on the way. Standing pat and waiting for the expansion draft may sell in some cities, but for the Oilers the time is now.

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?

It should mean the Oilers will be very quick to move if there are roster holes this year. Backup goalie, the situation at center and the famous need for a righty blue are all obvious spots—but there are concerns on skill RW and the Nuge is coming off a poor season. Oh by the way Oscar and Brandon were hurt a lot of last season.

One thing I do want to say: Adam Larsson should be a strong addition to this hockey club. I understand the deal is not a popular one with most fans, and I have made my opinion clear. I will tell you this: Larsson’s underlying numbers defensively do seem to be quality. Darcy and G’s work suggests it, the smart people I talk to (who do not want their names mentioned here) confirm it (while also reiterating it was not a value deal).

Folks, this is the reailty. Hall for Larsson was a poor trade, but it did improve the balance of the roster. The Oilers made a very risky move, we know it and have to live with it. The thing I cannot understand is this: Why stop here? Baffling. It is almost as if the entire organization lacks urgency. Again!

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We are back with the September rush. TSN1260, 10 this morning. Scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. Scott is at USA camp (World Cup of Hockey) in Columbus, we will talk early days and make sure everyone is healthy.
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Eskimos lost the LDC against Calgary and wake up this morning in a playoff race.
  • Jonathan Willis, Cult of Hockey. Hall—Larsson, and the curious summer in goal for Edmonton.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. The Hall trade revisited, CFL weekend and the Jays in a pennant race.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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frjohnk

G Money: We do have evidence of the opposite i.e. that player performance can and does change significantly with a different team

That’s a big YUP.

Many Dmen who go from low event teams to higher event teams also struggle coming out of the gate. This is something to expect with Larsson in the first couple of months. Edmontons system is totally different than New Jersey’s. Id like to believe Larsson is better suited to the Oilers than the Devils, but we really wont know for a while.

I’ll be very surprised if his shot suppression and scoring chance against numbers stay as low with the Oilers as they did with Devils.

I’m expecting an uptick in AGAINST numbers and hoping for a launch skyward in his FOR numbers.

I

G Money

Centre of attention,

Hmmm.

The thing is, we have no real evidence nor much in the way of historical precedent to expect what you’re describing. We do have evidence of the opposite i.e. that player performance can and does change significantly with a different team. Especially New Jersey.

(You could argue that we have an even more specific reverse precedent with Fayne, but that is not evidence, just a data point)

I suspect it is more accurate if in your post you replace ‘think’ with ‘hope’.

Centre of attention

G Money,

IMO what I think happens with Larsson’s fancy stats is he loses a bit of his shot supression but retains the good danger fenwicks because the box protection is more of a natural skill/instinct/reading the play than system based.

I also think he will naturally generate more shots for as well as dangerous fenwicks for by being part of a more agressive system under McLellan. Also, McDavid. If Larsson is playing 22 minutes he’s going to see more than one McDavid shift.

So in summary I think Larsson gains a couple shots (and goals) against by leaving NJ’s system but continues to supress the mosr dangerous of chances. He then will have an increase in shots/danger fenwickss for due to being on the ice with more offensively skilled players as well as being in a more aggressive McLellan system.

I think the overall effect of switching teams will be a net positive, the worst zone starts / competition he will face here is probably similar to what Sekera/Fayne saw last year and thats nowhere near the depths of hell he toiled in during his time in NJ. Klefbom is arguable a better partner than Greene as well and might zoom Larssons numbers a bit rather than the opposite like what was happening with Greene. (Iirc Greene is better with Larsson than without)

G Money

frjohnk,

I believe that Larsson is an excellent shot and an even better chance suppressor.

It’s the rest of his game I’m not so certain about.

And it is inconceivable [please to say with mild lisp] to think his numbers won’t go up when he gets to Edmonton.

The New Jersey system IMO fucks up any sort of analysis (numerical AND visual), and while we can take some educated guesses until then, we won’t know what we’ve got until he gets here.

We hope he keeps his defense and gains some offense.

It is unlikely, but it is not impossible that once outside that super suppressive “dead hockey” system in NJD, the opposite happens – his defense turns out to be system-related, and his offense is ‘real’.

Anyone who isn’t at least a little nervous about this … well …

As always, we hope for the best, and pray it doesn’t turn out like always.

frjohnk

Bling: I would argue that those numbers actually show that Larsson is extremely good.

1) The NHL average xGA/60 amongst D last season (TOI>800 minutes, score/zone/venue non-corrected, courtesy of Corsica) is 2.39, and the standard deviation is 0.24. Larsson is at 2.05, as you said.

That means Larsen is almost 2 SD better than Severson/Moore, one standard deviation better than Merril, and 0.5 SD better than Greene.

His only real comp is Schlemko, who played 900 minutes versus Larsson’s 1400. These are also unadjusted numbers, so we’re not factoring in Larsson’s tougher minutes and worse zone starts.

2) If we score/zone/venue corrected numbers (Corsica) and a minimum of 1000 minutes, the group ahead of him includes the following players (sidedness, age):

Vlasic (L, 29)
Braun (R, 29)
Stralman (R, 30)
Ekholm (L, 26)
Manson (R, 24)
Miller (R, 28)
Polak (R, 30)
Lindholm (L, 22)
Spurgeon (R, 26)
Suter (L, 31)

Pretty good company to be keeping. The only guy younger than him is Lindholm. Note that if we extend this list to the past 2 seasons, Larsson is the youngest.

The D ahead of Larsson played for the following teams: San Jose, Minnesota, Nashville, Tampa Bay, Washington, LA, Boston. In other words, way better teams.

If we let some air out of Larsson’s numbers for playing for New Jersey, what about the guys ahead of him? None of them had as extreme zone starts as Larsson.

I thought before that Larsson would have to improve his offence for this deal to be worth it. Now I’m not so sure.

This is already one hell of a player.

I believe he is a good hockey player, but New jerseys system really helped a lot of players look good defensively.

5 on 5 min 400 mins forwards and defense

xGA60
JACOB.JOSEFSON 1.86
BOBBY.FARNHAM 1.94
ERIC.GELINAS 1.97
MIKE.CAMMALLERI 1.97
DAVID.SCHLEMKO 2.04
ADAM.LARSSON 2.05
ADAM.HENRIQUE 2.15
ANDY.GREENE 2.18
JORDIN.TOOTOO 2.18
TYLER.KENNEDY 2.19
KYLE.PALMIERI 2.2
JON.MERRILL 2.27
STEPHEN.GIONTA 2.29
LEE.STEMPNIAK 2.3
TRAVIS.ZAJAC 2.34
DAMON.SEVERSON 2.43
JOSEPH.BLANDISI 2.43
SERGEY.KALININ 2.47
REID.BOUCHER 2.51
JOHN.MOORE 2.55

15 guys under the league average number of 2.39. So the team as a whole really limited in what they gave up.
The 5 guys over the league average number of 2.39 are within spitting distance of that number.

Time and time again, many players who go from low event teams to high event teams, see their shot metrics against increase ( some guys metrics balloon)

I really believe we are overstating how good defensively he is as we really don’t have the numbers that will show some repeatability with the Oilers.

I don’t think he is Mark Fayne 2.0, but what I’m expecting to see is an increase in both for and against in regards to shot metrics.

theDjdj

tsg: I didn’t realize this was done in rugby.I’m glad the precedent is already there in pro sports.

It was implemented for much the same reason as the suggested implementation for hockey. Teams were playing massive forwards that would grind the game out waiting for a penalty. Tries became a rarity around the early to mid 00’s and the game suffered for it.

Fucking Johnny Wilkinson.

Bling

frjohnk: How much is that Larsson?
And how much is that system play?

NJ Dmen 500 mins Expected goals against per 60

ADAM.LARSSON2.05
ANDY.GREENE2.18
DAMON.SEVERSON2.43
DAVID.SCHLEMKO2.04
JOHN.MOORE2.55
JON.MERRILL2.27

League average is 2.39

All New Jersey Dmen look pretty good to decent. So while Larsson looks pretty good in expected goals against, the separation from other Jersey Dmen is not all that big.

I would argue that those numbers actually show that Larsson is extremely good.

1) The NHL average xGA/60 amongst D last season (TOI>800 minutes, score/zone/venue non-corrected, courtesy of Corsica) is 2.39, and the standard deviation is 0.24. Larsson is at 2.05, as you said.

That means Larsen is almost 2 SD better than Severson/Moore, one standard deviation better than Merril, and 0.5 SD better than Greene.

His only real comp is Schlemko, who played 900 minutes versus Larsson’s 1400. These are also unadjusted numbers, so we’re not factoring in Larsson’s tougher minutes and worse zone starts.

2) If we score/zone/venue corrected numbers (Corsica) and a minimum of 1000 minutes, the group ahead of him includes the following players (sidedness, age):

Vlasic (L, 29)
Braun (R, 29)
Stralman (R, 30)
Ekholm (L, 26)
Manson (R, 24)
Miller (R, 28)
Polak (R, 30)
Lindholm (L, 22)
Spurgeon (R, 26)
Suter (L, 31)

Pretty good company to be keeping. The only guy younger than him is Lindholm. Note that if we extend this list to the past 2 seasons, Larsson is the youngest.

The D ahead of Larsson played for the following teams: San Jose, Minnesota, Nashville, Tampa Bay, Washington, LA, Boston. In other words, way better teams.

If we let some air out of Larsson’s numbers for playing for New Jersey, what about the guys ahead of him? None of them had as extreme zone starts as Larsson.

I thought before that Larsson would have to improve his offence for this deal to be worth it. Now I’m not so sure.

This is already one hell of a player.

stevezie

Bruce McCurdy,

I’m stealing this as my standard conspiracy response.

I look forward to deploying it next time G mentions the refs.

Bank Shot

Woodguy: all the metrics I use are goalie independent.

if I used his actually GF% instead of xGF% they’d be much better because of the SV%

xGF uses league average SV% on shots.

I’m just talking about how he will look on the ice if more shots are going into the net.

I have to see Larsson with my own eyes anyway. I don’t trust analytics when it comes to defensemen at all.

The stats haven’t been predictive in the past and are still in their infancy when it comes to being reliable.

I think player/puck tracking that will be implemented in the world cup will be the game changer.

Ducey

classict:
Bruce McCurdy,

I mentioned this earlier but think it may have gotten missed.

I definitely think Larsson belongs in the conversation with those three, which is elite territory, but do you think can a team win a cup without at least one dman also helping generate elite offence? I already saw Klef as our capable shut down guy on defence.

No team has won a cup without a dman capable of 40-50 points since the lockout, and I think only NYR has even made the final. Now it’s looking like the Oilers are all in on shutdown types. Klef is a little more two-way but still not likely a 40+ pt guy imo.

It might be a little early to be putting the finishing touches on for the Cup run.

I will be happy if they can just get their goal differential down to somewhere near zero.

Bruce McCurdy

classict: I definitely think Larsson belongs in the conversation with those three, which is elite territory, but do you think can a team win a cup without at least one dman also helping generate elite offence?

Nope. But that will be a different acquisition.

frjohnk

Bruce McCurdy: And this is different from Corsi how?

Wild swings in corsi when some players switch teams as well

Yeti

Bank Shot: For the next month I’ll be more interested in World Cup and training camp than arguing about something that will be answered soon enough anyway.

I fear that the arguing will continue long, long after the puck drops on the season. Maybe by 2020 it will have died down.

Bruce McCurdy

tsg: There have been a few comments about the fact that in the current NHL defense is incentivized to the point where offensive players are neutered with systems play and heavily devalued. The loser point doesn’t help and should be done away with.

The Bettman Point is both cause and effect. Not the only ones, but primary ones.

Bruce McCurdy

commonfan14:
It would have been amazing if the article had included something like this:

But along with their needs on defence, sources indicate that another factor played a significant part in the decision to move Hall. Ownership is demanding a big ceremonial event this season to help drive revenues at Edmonton’s new Rogers Place, and I’m told that an announcement will come soon about a jersey retirement. It’s thought to not be a coincidence that this announcement will come after a player wearing Kevin Lowe’s iconic #4 jersey has been shipped out of town.

Back, and to the left.

classict

Bruce McCurdy,

I mentioned this earlier but think it may have gotten missed.

I definitely think Larsson belongs in the conversation with those three, which is elite territory, but do you think can a team win a cup without at least one dman also helping generate elite offence? I already saw Klef as our capable shut down guy on defence.

No team has won a cup without a dman capable of 40-50 points since the lockout, and I think only NYR has even made the final. Now it’s looking like the Oilers are all in on shutdown types. Klef is a little more two-way but still not likely a 40+ pt guy imo.

Woodguy

Bruce McCurdy: Vlasic is a fabulous defenceman and one of my favourite players in the game. If Larsson is anywhere in the conversation that has to be a good thing AFAIC.

Vlasic is who McLellan mentioned when asked about Larsson as well.

*crosses fingers*

N64

Water Fire: If they didn’t make the decision what else could they say – we don’t think it’s a good idea? They could however find a way to end that situation if they didn’t like it and solve another problem as well– twobirds stoned at once.

Before you posit that a rookie stayed with Hall without their input try picking up the simpler end of Occam’s razor.

Woodguy

frjohnk: How much is that Larsson?
And how much is that system play?

NJ Dmen 500 mins Expected goals against per 60

ADAM.LARSSON2.05
ANDY.GREENE2.18
DAMON.SEVERSON2.43
DAVID.SCHLEMKO2.04
JOHN.MOORE2.55
JON.MERRILL2.27

League average is 2.39

Nobody can say for sure that Larsson will have as good as numbers defensively with Edmonton as he did with Jersey.

I have looked at many Dmen over the last couple of years that show wild swings in HDSCA and other shot metrics when they switched teams.

The issue I have with HDSCA and expected goals against and other shot metrics when we are trying to determine how good or bad a Dman is, that systems play and the other 9 guys on the ice influence those shot metrics more than that 1 player.Each player influences the different shot metric, but only marginally.

I’m expecting to see Larssons shot attempts against, high danger scoring chances against, expected goals against to all increase as an Edmonton Oiler.

I’m also expecting to see an increase in these same metrics for as well.I believe there is some untapped offensive in this player.

That’s why I don’t use raw numbers, but Relative numbers.

I expect Larsson to:

increase his raw cf/ff/xgf and his rels to increase

increase his raw ca/fa/xga and his rels to hold or slightly increase (increase here is worse)

best case is his Rel for increases and his Rel against decreases and with vastly different deployment it’s very possible.

Bruce McCurdy

Factotum:
Bruce McCurdy,

I love this post and delighted to see Hajlmarsson, Vlasic, and Tanev get special mention.Especially Pickles, who IMO has been one of the very best dmen in the game for several years.His performance in the 2014 Olympics was a tour de force.

Vlasic is a fabulous defenceman and one of my favourite players in the game. If Larsson is anywhere in the conversation that has to be a good thing AFAIC.

Bruce McCurdy

frjohnk: The issue I have with HDSCA and expected goals against and other shot metrics when we are trying to determine how good or bad a Dman is, that systems play and the other 9 guys on the ice influence those shot metrics more than that 1 player. Each player influences the different shot metric, but only marginally.

And this is different from Corsi how?

Woodguy

Caramel Batman: Ok, I’ll buy that.Larsson’s offense is terrible because of the zone starts, but his defensive numbers are good, in spite of the zone starts.

That’s plausible.In which case Larsson is not merely good defensively but perhaps the best in the league.It’s plausible.I guess.

Not the best, but I have him up with Tanev, Vlasic, Hjarlmasson who are the killers in this regard,

If NJD actually shot the puck at the goalie once in a while this debate wouldn’t exist.

frjohnk

OF17: As we’ve seen from the discrepancy between Larsson’s CF% and DFF% (or xGF% if you prefer), a lot of that is due to Larsson’s own play. The shots against that occur with him on the ice are significantly less dangerous than for the average player

How much is that Larsson?
And how much is that system play?

NJ Dmen 500 mins Expected goals against per 60

ADAM.LARSSON 2.05
ANDY.GREENE 2.18
DAMON.SEVERSON 2.43
DAVID.SCHLEMKO 2.04
JOHN.MOORE 2.55
JON.MERRILL 2.27

League average is 2.39
MARC-EDOUARD.VLASIC ed the league with a 1.73 expected goals against per 60
MATT.BARTKOWSKI was at the bottom with a 3.03

All New Jersey Dmen look pretty good to decent. So while Larsson looks pretty good in expected goals against, the separation from other Jersey Dmen is not all that big.

Nobody can say for sure that Larsson will have as good as numbers defensively with Edmonton as he did with Jersey.

I have looked at many Dmen over the last couple of years that show wild swings in HDSCA and other shot metrics when they switched teams.

The issue I have with HDSCA and expected goals against and other shot metrics when we are trying to determine how good or bad a Dman is, that systems play and the other 9 guys on the ice influence those shot metrics more than that 1 player. Each player influences the different shot metric, but only marginally.

I’m expecting to see Larssons shot attempts against, high danger scoring chances against, expected goals against to all increase as an Edmonton Oiler.

I’m also expecting to see an increase in these same metrics for as well. I believe there is some untapped offensive in this player.

Richard S.S.

One PTO signed to really cheap contract means Puljujarvi isn’t on the Starting Roster due to Cap Hit Bonus structure or someone ($2.0 Million or more) with a big enough Cap Hit is traded. Two PTOs signed means Draisaitl also isn’t on the Starting Roster due to Cap Hit Bonus structure or someone ($4.0 Million or more) with a big enough Cap Hit is traded . Three PTOs signed (unlikely) means McDavid joins them or someone ($6.0 Million or more) with a big enough Cap Hit is traded.

Bruce McCurdy

Factotum:
Serious question for Bruce, Woodguy, G and the other learned folks among you.

During their 10 seasons in the wilderness, the Oilers have averaged 2.56 goals per game.In 2015-2016, it was 2.47.And now they’ve traded their second best offensive talent.

Where are the goals going to come from when McDavid isn’t on the ice (which will be the majority of the time)?Am I wrong to be concerned about this?

No of course you aren’t wrong. But you could run the exact same stat at the other end of the ice, & find the Oilers just as woeful (even more, I expect). Clearly they desperately need defensive help as well. So they got some, and paid for it.

Short term the goals will come from Lucic, Eberle, RNH, Pouliot, at least a couple of whom won’t be on McDavid’s line. Long term, secondary offence will come from Draisaitl, Puljujarvi, & hopefully Yakupov.

Oh, & McDavid will score a ton. So the amount of secondary scoring that is required may be a little less than for other teams.

Bruce McCurdy

Caramel Batman: We don’t know the xGF happened? We presume it did. In this particular case we know that Larsson was allowing more shots than other players.

We don’t know this at all. Over the past 4 years Adam Larsson ranks 5th among 134 NHL defencemen with 3000 EV TOI in FEWEST shots against per 60. Despite having the harshest zone starts in the league. Woodguy and I among others believe the juxtaposition of those two types of stats — deployment vs. defensive results — is a strong indicator this guy is the real deal.

Woodguy

Bank Shot:
Larsson’s last two seasons in on ice sv%->>

.944%
.935%

That’s not going to happen in Edmonton so he’s going to have to start putting up some points to compensate if this trade is going to go from looking horrendous to looking not bad.

I’m surprised the arguing over the trade is still going so strong though. We are only a month away from seeing the results in action.

For the next month I’ll be more interested in World Cup and training camp than arguing about something that will be answered soon enough anyway.

all the metrics I use are goalie independent.

if I used his actually GF% instead of xGF% they’d be much better because of the SV%

xGF uses league average SV% on shots.

Factotum

Here’s the thing about hoping to get more offense from the power play – there just aren’t that many opportunities any more, and they’ve been on a steady decline.

Power play opportunities per team, per game:
05/06 5.85
06/07 4.85
07/08 4.28
08/09 4.16
09/10 3.71
10/11 3.54
11/12 3.31
12/13 3.32
13/14 3.27
14/15 3.06
15/16 3.11

Power play goals per team per game has been <0.6 in three of the last four seasons (it was 0.61 in the lockout year).

In 15/16, Going from a league-average power play (18.66%) to say, eighth-best (20%) would have added approximately five goals – for the season.

The Oilers were 18.14% (19th) last year in only 237 opportunities. If they'd had a 20% power play, they would have scored a whopping 47 power play goals instead of 43.

I swear, it's as though the NHL is averse to entertainment.

And don't get me started on the coach's challenge. Bruce has devoted more than a sufficient number of pixels to that bit of anti-entertainment for the both of us.

Cassandra

Woodguy: His FF% is negative because of the FF/60.

His RelFA/60 -2.27.

Your basing all this off his poor FF/60.

His RelFA/60 looks similar to others.

Ok, I’ll buy that. Larsson’s offense is terrible because of the zone starts, but his defensive numbers are good, in spite of the zone starts.

That’s plausible. In which case Larsson is not merely good defensively but perhaps the best in the league. It’s plausible. I guess.

Frank the dog

Gretzkin,

You don’t have to be popular. You just have to be good. Chris Pronger says hello.

Woodguy

su_dhillon: WG I’ve been out of the loop for a while so maybe this has been discussed ad nauseam the last month.My issue with Chiarelli is that even though he came to the same conclusion as you on Larson I think his method of evaluation was far different than yoursand one I trust far less. Maybe he is looking at numbers similar to your expected goals and just has a great poker face but to me he made this deal because ofTaylor hall’s perceived attitude and Larson’s hockey card numbers ie Age, Size, minutes played and draft pedigree.

I don’t like the deal but I’m open to seeing how much better Larson is in a different role and hopeful he helps more than I think he will. That being said I don’t trust thatChiarelli is using the best evaluation methods and this Freidman article feels a lot like that Bruins video of the Seguin trade.

I have no idea what he used, but based on what he and McLellan say publicly I’d wager it is Scoring Change +/- and what the players do to contribute to each.

OF17

Bank Shot:
Larsson’s last two seasons in on ice sv%->>

.944%
.935%

That’s not going to happen in Edmonton so he’s going to have to start putting up some points to compensate if this trade is going to go from looking horrendous to looking not bad.

I’m surprised the arguing over the trade is still going so strong though. We are only a month away from seeing the results in action.

For the next month I’ll be more interested in World Cup and training camp than arguing about something that will be answered soon enough anyway.

As we’ve seen from the discrepancy between Larsson’s CF% and DFF% (or xGF% if you prefer), a lot of that is due to Larsson’s own play. The shots against that occur with him on the ice are significantly less dangerous than for the average player. Talbot is no Schneider, but he’s a good goalie, and he still has room to grow as a starter. Larsson too has room to grow as a player. I don’t think those numbers will crater. In any event, most of the discussion has revolved around xGF%, which is independent of save percentage, so the discussion might be moot anyways.

OF17

stevezie:
To me the most telling quote came from an anonymous Oiler explaining why he wasn’t bothered why Matt Hendricks turned down a fight with Brandon Bollig. ““We understood why Matt wouldn’t do it,” a teammate said. “There was no point in spilling blood for that anymore.””
I know a lot of you despise fighting- and you’re not wrong- but this quote says a lot, and none of it good.
A few years ago I harshly criticised Shultz for not joining a scrum, and this is why. I’m not saying it matters to “hockey”, but psychologically you want a team willing to spill blood for “that”.
I know it was mostly the losing, but the dressing room was clearly not a united place. I think management overreacted to this, but they were right to try and address it.
This is not a defence of fighting, I’m just saying fighting is often an extension of giving a fuck- of seeing the team as something worth fighting for. Hope that’s clear.

This is how I feel about fighting as well. There’s something to be said for that psychological boost that comes from seeing a teammate sacrifice his own wellbeing for the sake of the team. It’s always easier to work with someone who has your back no matter what. The inverse applies as well of course. I’d imagine it was hard at times to look guys like Jultz in the eye and act as if he was on “our side.” If he was on our side, why didn’t he help me when I got mauled by three guys after the whistle?

Problem with that attitude is it’s self-perpetuating too. Guys that otherwise would be willing to sacrifice don’t because they don’t see it reflected in others, and the problem gets worse. Thankfully we’re starting to see the inverse happen. It’s not just Hendricks and the rookie trying to generate that attitude anymore, which will be a breath of fresh air. That combined with a more delineated hierarchy with McDavid at the top, not to mention the breaking up of the Hall-Schultz-Eberle-Nuge clique, should lead to a more cohesive team this year. To what extent that manifests in the standings we’ll have to see.

Bank Shot

Larsson’s last two seasons in on ice sv%->>

.944%
.935%

That’s not going to happen in Edmonton so he’s going to have to start putting up some points to compensate if this trade is going to go from looking horrendous to looking not bad.

I’m surprised the arguing over the trade is still going so strong though. We are only a month away from seeing the results in action.

For the next month I’ll be more interested in World Cup and training camp than arguing about something that will be answered soon enough anyway.

Woodguy

Caramel Batman:
Woodguy,

But that’s just it.If you change the weights you change the results, and because the weights are to some extent arbitrary, they did not happen the same way corsi or Fenwick did.

And because of the weighting it is a statistical certainty that some players will be advantaged by them.So while for the populations as a whole the metric will be more accurate that does not mean it is more accurate in every individual case.

Your theory is that the zone starts is leading to the Fenwick numbers, but that this isn’t leading to increased chances.This is possible I guess, but it requires demonstration.The raw number is not proof in itself.

Note how this is different from someone like Hedman who is excellent no matter how you look at him.I believe his number because there isn’t contradictory data.

His FF% is negative because of the FF/60.

His RelFA/60 -2.27.

Your basing all this off his poor FF/60.

His RelFA/60 looks similar to others.

Water Fire

~ Hall of Shame ~: Water

If they didn’t make the decision what else could they say – we don’t think it’s a good idea? They could however find a way to end that situation if they didn’t like it and solve another problem as well – two birds stoned at once.

tsg

Ronald Chevalier: Rugby does something like that. 2 points for a win and a bonus point if 4 trys are scored. Teams reallywork hard to get that bonus point and it makes the game more entertaining.

I didn’t realize this was done in rugby. I’m glad the precedent is already there in pro sports.

stevezie

To me the most telling quote came from an anonymous Oiler explaining why he wasn’t bothered why Matt Hendricks turned down a fight with Brandon Bollig. ““We understood why Matt wouldn’t do it,” a teammate said. “There was no point in spilling blood for that anymore.””
I know a lot of you despise fighting- and you’re not wrong- but this quote says a lot, and none of it good.
A few years ago I harshly criticised Shultz for not joining a scrum, and this is why. I’m not saying it matters to “hockey”, but psychologically you want a team willing to spill blood for “that”.
I know it was mostly the losing, but the dressing room was clearly not a united place. I think management overreacted to this, but they were right to try and address it.
This is not a defence of fighting, I’m just saying fighting is often an extension of giving a fuck- of seeing the team as something worth fighting for. Hope that’s clear.

Leroy Draisdale

tsg: I also heard the idea on the radio earlier this year (Gregor’s show) about providing points in the standings based on goals scored. Something like every 3 goals scored is worth 0.5 points in the standings. I can really get behind this idea. A game ends 4-3, winner gets 2.5 points, loser get 0.5 points. Provide a true incentive for coaches to coach for offense.

Rugby does something like that. 2 points for a win and a bonus point if 4 trys are scored. Teams really work hard to get that bonus point and it makes the game more entertaining.

blackadder

I really don’t believe Chiarelli wanted to trade Hall – but in the end discovered the only way to acquire a defenceman with the characteristics he wanted (age, RHD, contract status, potential) was to part with him. I suspect that when he made the trade he had a pretty good idea that Lucic would sign and Demers wouldn’t. In the end, when NJ wouldn’t sweeten the deal, he was left with the decision to go with status quo and wait in the hopes a better option would magically appear, or make a deal even he knows he would be on the losing end in terms of value. We can argue about whether this was the right choice to make, but in the end to me there’s no question that this was about making the overall team better.

I would also add that I don’t believe coaches, and the managers who hire than, appropriately value players like Hall, Subban and Letang. These are players who take risks, and sometimes get burned, but in the end create more than their mistakes cost. That none of them made team Canada speaks more to what passes for conventional coaching wisdom then their qualities as either hockey players or as teammates. And while more pronounced, it’s not necessarily new. Yzerman and Modano weren’t allowed into the hockey pantheon until they chose to take risk, and offence, and entertainment, out of their games.

stevezie

Genjutsu: Taylor Hall was the only asset that could get that player that management was willing to part with.

i think you’re right about the second half, but i also think Nurse or Drai could get that rhD too.

Larsson is probably going to be Larsson. The curiosity will be whether Nurse and Drai will go to justify keeping them over Hall. They well might, but I’m a sucker for a sure thing*.

*or so i imagine. Socially, sure things have never cared for me.

Genjutsu

For this was the money quote:

“Hall and Subban are very similar. Great players…great players. Determined. Driven. They want to win,” he said. “But from junior, they’ve always done it their way. The toughest thing to learn is how you can’t go your own way — especially when you are losing. I had to learn that. That’s the final lesson.”

Todd’s a systems coach, Taylor a soloist.

I really think is mostly just noise. You find a way to make it work with a talent like Hall.

I’m of the opinion this was the only option to find RD that was palatable as an option on the top pair this year.

Taylor Hall was the only asset that could get that player that management was willing to part with.

slopitch

Kiltymcbagpipes:
“Peter asked for more, of course, but the way the cap works, we had to stand strong,” Shero said, since New Jersey added $1.8M of a hit with Hall’s larger number.

“He did his homework, he knew what was out there. It’s hard to find a young defenceman with term and a $4M cap hit. People want to decide winners and losers right away, but you have to build a team. That’s what we are all trying to do.”

So knowing this, did our GM make a shrewd move with this calculated risk or should he have sat on his hands while we all sit around and bitch about a Top-pairing Dman while being oblivious to the actual market to acquire such player?

Ive wondered this all summer. We all pretty much knew a kid was being traded and then when it happened complained vehemently.

Im willing for this year to be a show me year. I dont like the trade but lordy Im due to watch some games that matter past January.

hunter1909

Woodguy: you often hear what an asshole Potvin was.

It’s one thing to play on a dominatingly excellent, 4x cup winner and put up with an asshole captain. Winning covers up a multitude of sins.

It’s another matter to have an asshole running a 27th place palooka team. A heartless, spineless team of hothouse flowers that gets routinely shoved around.

I like Hall a lot as a player. But any player that refuses to pass the puck to Yakupov out of some hoser’s handbook of the universe deserves to be dealt with…particularly when said player is refusing to buy into a new team culture.

I can’t honestly blame Hall. He got drafted by Kevin Lowe. And as anyone knows, Lowe is responsible for destroying Sather’s legacy – replacing it with the laughably worst hockey team this century if not ever.

Centre of attention

Chachi:
Yost’s tweet about Friedman’s article says more about him than it does about the trade. “Woof” indeed.

Yost never skips an opportunity to take a shot at most Canadian teams.

He’s a closet Sens fan, whenever he takes jabs at us Oilers just bring up Spezza and he shuts up 😉

tsg

There have been a few comments about the fact that in the current NHL defense is incentivized to the point where offensive players are neutered with systems play and heavily devalued. The loser point doesn’t help and should be done away with.

I also heard the idea on the radio earlier this year (Gregor’s show) about providing points in the standings based on goals scored. Something like every 3 goals scored is worth 0.5 points in the standings. I can really get behind this idea. A game ends 4-3, winner gets 2.5 points, loser get 0.5 points. Provide a true incentive for coaches to coach for offense.

All that is required is a slightly different number to be recorded on the standings sheet at the end of the game. From a traditional sense the game on the ice itself remains the same as it always has been from a rules perspective.

hunter1909

Woodguy: When you hear interviews with old Islanders who were around for some/all of their 5 Cups in a row

Err….4 cups in a row.

OF17

dustrock,

For me, I’m excited to see what our offense can do with four legitimate puckmovers on defense. That’s twice as many as we had in the lineup most nights last year. Larsson will also go a long way towards eliminating shifts spent chasing in the D zone. He’s very good at transitioning from D to O, especially when it comes to shutting down chances off the rush and disrupting zone entries. Pretty good along the wall too. Our forwards got less talented with the drop from Hall to Lucic (although going from Kassian to Puljujarvi at 3RW might make up for that), but my bet is our forwards see significantly more time in the O zone with the addition of Larsson and 50 more games of Klefbom. That’s going to make a difference in the GF column even if the D aren’t racking up a ton of points.

season not played

Wow, there was just a post on here that I thought was bordering on blasphemous but did a pretty good job of skirting the lines. Apparently not.

I also think it is possible for a player to be thought of as an asshole by teammates for the serious nature in which he hold others accountable thereby raising the standard of his team in the process.