RIESEN TO BELIEVE 4—MILES FROM KNOWING
Sixteen years ago, the great Michel Riesen (pause) made the Edmonton Oilers as part of a Bulldog line featuring Daniel Cleary and Brian Swanson. The trio had success with the Hamilton Bulldogs in 1999-00, and made the big team fall 2000 without a lot of pre-camp fanfare. In an effort to never let this happen again, here are all of the people who have a chance to make the team—their current estimate—and the players with no chance at all.
GOALIES
- Cam Talbot, 29. Quality from Dec. 1 to end of year in 2015-16, and the schedule early allows for much rest because of off days. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.
- Jonas Gustavsson, 31. His .908SP last year trailed NHL average (.915) by some margin, and he is at an age when erosion is reasonably certain. Chances of Making the Oilers: 60%.
- Laurent Brossoit, 23. I spoke to Catherine Silverman about him on the weekend, she sees a substantial prospect. Not Bernie Parent, but an NHL player. Chances of Making the Oilers: 40%.
- Eetu Laurikainen—He could play in Bakersfield, Norfolk or Finland this year.
- Nick Ellis—College grad could surprise and play a lot in Bakersfield.
- Dylan Wells—Oilers latest junior bet, needs a strong camp and season in the OHL.
- Keven Bouchard—TC invite. Maybe they sign him as the new Ty Rimmer?
LEFT DEFENSE
- LD Oscar Klefbom, 23. Early reports have him healthy. Music! Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.
- LD Andrej Sekera, 30. Veteran should be an outstanding second pairing anchor. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.
- LD Brandon Davidson, 24. A strong debut season has his career trajectory on a much higher arc than most expected. We don’t know what he can’t do. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.
- LD Darnell Nurse, 21. Rugged defender had a difficult transition to pro, can he settle in and be effective on the third pairing? Chances of Making the Oilers: 90%.
- LD Jordan Oesterle, 24. Fast defender with offensive bent made some defensive adjustments in the NHL a year ago. Still miles to go. Chances of Making the Oilers: 45%.
- LD David Musil, 23. He has one big advantage—because he requires waivers, Edmonton may keep him if the club values him in a big way. Chances of Making the Oilers: 23%.
- LD Griffin Reinhart, 22. He is a PC acquisition and should get a push at some point during the year. Important to find out about him before the expansion draft—some believe his NHL role is already established. Chances of Making the Oilers: 25%.
- LD Mark Fraser, 29. He could see NHL time, unlikely to break camp with the big team. Chances of Making the Oilers: 2%.
- LD Dillon Simpson, 23. Remains a long shot for an NHL career, but his steady progress makes Simpson an interesting prospect. Chances of Making the Oilers: 1%.
- LD Andrew Ference—LTIR? Maybe he is healthy enough to play at some point this year.
- LD Joey Laleggia—A big season in Bakersfield could get him a cup of coffee.
- LD Ben Betker—End of the roster in terms of LD, he is a giant stay-at-home blue.
- LD Caleb Jones—I think there is a chance he hangs around training camp until very late.
- LD Markus Niemelainen—Mobile blue, looking forward to seeing his skating.
- LD Mikael Tam—A bit of a wild card, suspect he may see Norfolk in the fall.
- LD Kyle Jenkins—Apparently an invite, 20-year old with average size and some skill.
RIGHT DEFENSE
- RD Adam Larsson, 23. A substantial addition to the defense, he is a lock for the top pairing—likely with Klefbom, although Sekera is also an option. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.
- RD Mark Fayne, 29. Oilers badly need him to be an effective defender. From the Terry Harper family of blue liners, had a difficult transition to the Todd McLellan Oilers. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.
- RD Matt Benning, 23. He has a lot of things going for him and a strong training camp might get him in the conversation. Chances of Making the Oilers: 15%.
- RD Frank Simonelli—He is a righty blue from the Boston Bruins system. Bakersfield.
- RD Ethan Bear—A strong showing hoped for before he starts his final junior year.
- RD Aaron Irving—TC invite, I like his ability to move the puck. Promising addition.
- RD Dallas Valentine—Big (6.04, 205) defender has been invited to camp.
CENTER
- C Connor McDavid, 19. Franchise. If the Oilers make the playoffs this year—most are picking them to miss—97 will be a major part of the success. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.
- C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 23. Coming off a difficult season, I will bet on him 10 times out of 10. One of the few young Oilers who is a fully formed two-way player. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.
- C-R Leon Draisaitl, 20. He could play a utility (C-R) role but the team sets up currently with Leon as the soft minutes pivot. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.
- C Mark Letestu, 31. Underrated 4C, mostly because he had to play too high on the depth chart one year ago. I think he could still get PP minutes this year, at least until JP is established. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.
- C Anton Lander, 25. There is a spot for him. Can he grab it—and keep it?. Chances of Making the Oilers: 75%.
- C Jujhar Khaira, 22. I think Khaira is very close to securing an NHL job, but don’t know if this is the year. He could be here for good around the trade deadline. Chances of Making the Oilers: 40%.
- RC Kyle Platzer—A big season ahead, he has talent but needs a chance to show it.
- LC Josh Currie—AHL center impressed last season, won another AHL deal.
- C-L Joey Benik—Another AHL contract, Benik is a small (5.10, 174) and quite skilled. Bakersfield.
- LC Thomas Foster—Skill center delivered when healthy, intriguing invite.
- RC Tomas Soustal—I really like his numbers and scouting report. Invite possibility (Orientation).
LEFT WING
- L Milan Lucic, 28. Big man will play a massive role on a skill line, likely with McDavid. Unsure of his power-play presence on the club. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.
- L Benoit Pouliot, 29. One of the reasons Edmonton felt they could deal from strength at this position. Not a media favorite, his fancy numbers shine like a diamond. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.
- L Patrick Maroon, 28. We should temper our expectations (he scored at a 40-goal clip as an Oiler) but a bona fide addition. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.
- L Matt Hendricks, 35. Role players who survive in the NHL until 35 are damned hard workers who have sacrificed. Hendricks is such a player. Chances of Making the Oilers: 90%.
- C-L Drake Caggiula, 22. One of the wild cars this fall, we will notice his speed and skill. Suspect he has all kinds of success early, how deep into pre-season can he be a contributor? Chances of Making the Oilers: 10%.
- F Jere Sallinen, 25. Unknown Finns have a way of finding their way onto Edmonton’s roster, from Lenny to Iiro and now (possibly) Jere. Can do a few things, including play center. Chances of Making the Oilers: 4%.
- L Mitch Moroz—Oilers have one year to either give him a shot or continue to play him in half the games.
- L Braden Christoffer—Played well in Norfolk, needs to play in Bakersfield to show his stuff.
- L Ryan Hamilton—AHL only contract now, mentor for the kids and he will play in AHL. Bakersfield.
- L Scott Allen—A giant (6.03, 198) who came out of college (Alaska-Anchorage). Bakersfield.
- L Tyler Benson—I am pretty excited about this player. If he is healthy, first-round talent.
- L Collin Shirley—Two-way winger with size and some skill. Saskatoon Blades veteran.
RIGHT WING
- R Jordan Eberle, 26. If he stays all season with 97, a total of 30+ goals should be the expectation. He is 26, if Eberle can establish himself as McDavid’s shooter, he could be entering his goal-scoring prime. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.
- R Zack Kassian, 25. He has a chance to push out one of Nail or Jesse on the second or third line. Kassian has some nice things, including puck retrieval and passing ability. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.
- R Nail Yakupov, 22. It is almost certain now he breaks camp with the team, and if coach McLellan decides to put him back with McDavid this could be a very good year. The range of possible outcomes with this player remains mind boggling entering year 5. Chances of Making the Oilers: 90%.
- R Iiro Pakarinen, 24. Young physical winger pushed past all of the high draft picks in the minors to win the day with new coach Todd McLellan. Utility forward has a job in the NHL. Chances of Making the Oilers: 90%.
- R Jesse Puljujarvi, 18. He is big (6.04, 203), fast and skilled—and his best hockey a year ago came in the spring (10, 4-5-9 in Finnish playoffs) and International tournaments. Chances of Making the Oilers: 80%.
- R Taylor Beck, 25. Interesting addition, he has size (6.02, 203) and enough skill (NHL: 87, 11-12-23) to suggest he could be productive in a support role. Can play either wing. Chances of Making the Oilers: 12%.
- R Tyler Pitlick, 24. Has to separate himself from Pakarinen. Chances of Making the Oilers: 7%.
- R Patrick Russell, 23. A real long shot—new pro, speed a concern—but he has size and is physical so has a chance. Chances of Making the Oilers: 1%.
- R Anton Slepyshev, 22. A big season for him and there are many players ahead of him. Todd McLellan liked him a year ago and the Russian could see the NHL again this year. Chances of Making the Oilers: 1%.
- R Greg Chase—A quiet first year pro, expect he will push very hard for a feature role in Bakersfield this year.
- R Jaedon Descheneau—St. Louis(unsigned) pick in 2014. Small, skilled, AHL deal.
- R Carson Stadnyk—WHL scoring winger on the way to U of Saskatchewan (Rookie tournament).
- R Joel Rechlicz—Enforcer will no doubt be a popular player in Bakersfield.
POSSIBLE INVITES
- C Mike Richards—It sounds like an offer has been extended to him based on reports. If Edmonton plans on using him as 3C, that puts an end to unicorns.
- D Eric Gryba—He has been extended an invitation, and we should be prepared for 8D to start the season if he accepts.
POSSIBLE OPENING NIGHT ROSTER
I do think Eric Gryba ends up on the Oilers roster, although he may not play opening night. The one battle where the current favorite may not win the day? In goal, where Laurent Brossoit could win the job backing up Cam Talbot. Jesse Puljujarvi may come in an struggle, but if he has any chemistry at all with one of the three centermen one suspects he wins opening night employment.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A fun show, this morning at 10. Scheduled to appear:
- Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. The calm voice of reason talks Hall deal, playoff hopes and job openings.
- Jeff Krushell, Krush Performance. Safety in sports, including football and soccer.
- Andy McNamara, TSN. Andy has a new NFL show and we will chat about some of the big Week 1 stories.
- Tom Lynn, Veritas Hockey. Free agents without contracts, Versteeg, more.
10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
– Great post LT! Your probability weighting, when you say: “Chances of Making the Oilers”. Is that chances of making opening night roster, or making the roster sometime this season?
Chances of someone not on your list making the opening night roster?
I know there is the rookie bonus thingy, but Reinhart is the one guy who could be penciled in as someone who could make it.
If he comes into camp knocking fastballs and curveballs out of the park he could make things interesting on the backend
I’d hope that they give Brossoit more time in the AHL even if they thought he was a better backup than Gustavsson. There’s likely minimal impact on results between the two acting as occasional backup, whereas the impact on Brossoit’s development of sitting could be significant. They can always switch the two half way through the season.
I’m hoping the same also – even if he outplays Gustavsson through training camp and pre-season I would probably be more comfortable keeping him in the AHL for a bit to develop.
Handling Broissoit is tricky.
If you leave him in the AHL too long, he’ll do well but he could stagnate vs. lesser competition. If you bring him up and he hits it out of the park, he’ll be claimed by Las Vegas.
Trouba? 😀
Lucic – McDavid – Eberle
Pouliot – RNH – Draisaitl
Maroon – Richards – Yakupov (replaced by Puljujarvi after midseason trade)
Hendricks – Letestu – Kassian
Looks pretty balanced to me.
It’s a crazy thing to say. But that 2nd RHD spot is key – if someone on the team can fill it well or a trade happens I am way more confident next season in this team.
I really would prefer Davidson on the left side.
Reinhart 25%? I’m not big on the analytic side but my eyes told me he was clearly a better defender than Nurse at the end of the year. Does his contract play into him making the team out of camp?
It’s so hard to say with some situations. What he struggled with was NHL shooters, maybe getting shelled in an NHL practice for a year is what he needs at this point, to get used to it and what they do to deceive. The fundamentals must be there or he wouldn’t have got a look.
Man, that Leftorium on LHD. You list 16(!!) potential LHD for the Oilers. Wow. That is an awesome thing to behold.
As in, fear and trembling.
russ99,
– agree on paper: another bonfide C would help: except Richards is sh%t…
Da turd line looks grim to me.
Maroon has shown he can play with a skilled C, but isn’t going to drive a line himself.
Richards has numerous problems, including that he got 5 points in 39 games last year. We are a long ways from 2009. I can’t see him as an upgrade on Letestu at this point.
And Yak is a reclamation project that needs some big time C help.
No problem giving Richards a PTO, but he is best used as a 13th F if he was to show anything at camp.
He definitely was last playoffs.
Ovechkin hands down outplayed Crosby and Malkin. But Washingtons 3rd and 4th lines ( where Richards was) were too slow and generated nothing in that series. The Pens speed and depth beat Washington. Richards could not even saw off the 3rd and 4th lines.
With that said, he is worth a PTO, as there is no downside to a PTO. He didn’t have a training camp last year and who knows what kind of shape he was in. He might be an upgrade on Lander. There is probably still some fire in the belly.
marchmentsknee,
I’m thinking the gap in LT’s estimates for Nurse and Reinhart are based in the thinking that the organization favours Nurse to some degree and that Reinhart’s contract and bonus money will hurt his opening night chances significantly.
In a cap world money decides a lot. I also saw Reinhart good, but he’s not a player that needs to be rushed because it would hurt him to stay down, probably the opposite, he seems to need to be more hungry.
Also Nurse’s fighting bought him a lot of old hockey brass guy love methinks.
You don’t pencil in a PTO for a 3c position, if that was the case he would have a contract. It is a test drive to see if he has anything left and see if he can bring in competition to training camp.
I also think Reinhart has a much better chance then 25% to make the team. He is this GMs first expensive acquisition. He is going to get a chance to succeed as not to embarrass the GM.
Oh and I can’t wait to see a top pairing of Klefbom Larsson. 25 minutes of stability a night, and Sekera showed last year his turd polishing skills so maybe him and Fayne have a capable year. I don’t see Chia bringing in a RHD without trading a lefty.
Hahahaha. He really did play with a lot of turds last year.
Part of the roster make up, may well depend on JP
If JP shows he is more than ready, then that will mean that Drai stays as a center, and most likely Reinhart gets sent down, even if he is better than some of the Dmen that make it because of bonus.
If JP gets sent down, Drai could be moved to the wing, Reinhart could make the team, and we are looking for another center.
– LT’s player spreadsheet highlights a nice problem to have: let’s say that Davidson is healthy and lives up to his small-sample bonafide top-4.
– I’d put Griff at this level as his ceiling (he’s bigger, not as hockey smart at this point, but getting a good development)
– Nurse, he be getting the crazy under control, and he too is top-4 D
– Projecting out, you can’t have a NHL LD of:
Klef
Sek
Nurse
Davidson
Griff
– And the problem is you can’t “develop” a NHL LD with all 5 of these guys.
– Sure move Davey over and have him play off-wing higher up the batting order than he should,
– But how do you develop and play all these D, when NurseDaveyGriff all all should be by end of season ideally earning NHL time if they are going to make it with the OIL?
– I’m all for keeping Nurse and Griff on the farm for as long as possible, but how do they get their NHL at-bats when they are “ripe”?
– Basically the Oil is not in a position to develop them all optimally, IMO
hags9k,
Thanks for the clarification. I’m a Nurse supporter. A guy with that size and speed will collect NHL pension when he’s done playing. He may never live up to Oiler fan expectations but this will be his last year on the bubble.
Reinhart doesn’t have the same upside but it looks as though he’s began to establish his defense. The problem is he still looks like the same player as Musil or Simpson. TMac could probably put those three in the same jersey and we wouldn’t notice.
It’s a rich Oilers tradition to bring in former star players to play their final, ineffective, team-damaging season in Edmonton, so I fully expect Richards to be on the opening night roster.
But holy smokes, if they’re casting about for throw-aways, couldn’t they at least find one with a right-handed shot?
That said, we need to remember that there will be more PTO’s across the league, just for teams to fill roster spots left vacant by players who are at the World Cup. The Oilers are down their top 2 centers to begin training camp.
I would not be surprised if this is the top six given TMac’s alleged preference to load his top two lines. If they start that third line I will shoot myself – it is hard to imagine a bigger group of misfits. If Yak is not on a scoring line he might as well be in the press box and Richards can no longer centre a scoring line.
If Richards is 3C Yak is moving, Puljujarvi is in the AHL, and Pitlick or Sleps are in – is Richards really an upgrade on Lander? Would prefer Drai as 3C and Yak up (or out).
Tight fit and a bit slow in that one jersey. The trick is for Vegas not to notice. 😉
If they bring in a RD with big cap hit something is leaving the leftorium.
If they don’t then PC surrounding what he has in GR could trump cap hit considerations at some point,
Suspect that any time GR spends in the A this year would be for developmental reasons and more ice time than as 7D for the first half of the year (even if the bonus exemption limit is a benefit as well).
It’s Brossoit’s 23-24 year old season. At some point he’s going to have to transition to the NHL and I don’t expect him to jump immediately into a 65 game player right out of the gate. The reality is the backup will get lots of practice time and, at the very least, 25 NHL games.
If he’s the better choice, then he will be in the NHL. The “give him reps” argument is a spiral, because frankly you could make that argument every year. Gotta pull the trigger eventually, and he’s really not THAT young.
Around here the thinking seems to be that we need to bring in a new RHD or pencil Davidson in as 3RD. What are the thoughts on Sekera returning to the right side?
Klefbom – Larsson
Davidson – Sekera
DN/GR/JO – Fayne
seems a lot better than
Klefbom – Larsson
Sekera – Fayne
DN/GR/JO – Davidson
to me. Why force the developing player to make the switch?
The talk of JP making the Oilers is insanity. We will never learn. Sign Boyes/Versteeg and let the kid develop in FIN for another year. Kid is also coming off a knee injury so he is already behind.
marchmentsknee,
I’m very high on Nurse also, despite the rookie struggles. I think we will end up as a star.
I also still have high hopes for Reinhart but agree his ceiling is lower, especially on the O side, although he did seem to be collecting some 5 bell scoring chances in his NHl time.
Hopefully this is the year both young men blow expectations out of the water.
Pouzar,
Not saying you are at all wrong, but you are wasting your breath. The Oilers cannot help themselves from the cookie jar.
I’d bet they want to see him with 97 right at the start of camp.
Pool party, meet deep end.
Or, let him come to training camp and if he impresses, give him his 9 games. if he does well in the 9 games keep him up, if not send him down to the AHL where he can learn both the North American game and some English on a team where they can control his playing time.
I thought the 9 game audition only applied to junior players. If he plays the year in the AHL, I’m pretty sure he burns a year off his contract.
Based on what? If the kid can play in the NHL this year and already has a year against men, why wouldn’t you give him at least the first 9 games? The development model isn’t the same for everyone and he’s big enough for sure, so what’s the problem?
To send him back to Finland just because isn’t necessarily the solution, it may be, but why make up your mind first?
Clay,
I’d assume that you can still loan him back to his Finnish team. I’m unsure how that affects his contract status
It is article 9 of the CBA if you want to be really sure instead of pretty sure. His contract slides if he doesn’t play 10 games in the NHL this year.
keep Drai at centre and sign Boyes, there’s your unicorns
Lucic-McDavid-Eberle
Maroon-RNH-Boyes
Pouliot-Draisaitl-Yakupov
Agree with him coming to camp and 9 game tryout. I won’t re-hash our old argument regarding the other part.
I just don’t see the urgency to have this kid playing in the NHL past 9 games. There are other options. Give the kid some time in an offensive roll in a lesser league against men and let him continue to develop. According to LT’s earlier post on JP, he wasn’t put in a feature offensive role last year. I would think it would be prudent to let him go somewhere (AHL or Finnish League) and let him continue to develop his offensive skills which will be his calling card in this league if everything pans out.
Sheesh… am I in the minority on this? Have we not learned that the first 9 gms won’t tell us sh!t and the season only gets harder?
Anyways………….
LadiesloveSmid,
Not that I’m against signing Boyes, but I’m not seeing how a second line of Maroon-RNH-Boyes qualifies as a unicorn.
Ca$h-McMoney!,
Ideally you spread the wealth and replace Boyes with Eberle but doesn’t seem realistic in my eyes. Maroon-RNH-Boyes and Pou-Drai-Yak seem to be two second lines taking on the lesser opposition
JP can go to the AHL this year. That’s a better fit. I think his contract slides there too.
Versteeg may not be healthy. His camp says he has insurance problems (apparently stemming from a knee injury some years ago). The Swiss team says he failed his medical.
There is a reason all of these guys are on the scrap pile. There are one or two every year that surprise, but most don’t.
Boyes might be interesting.
Over 9 games gets us a lot if the player is good enough. You may or may not be right about JP, but why aren’t you willing to wait and see. If he’s tearing it up on a sheltered 3rd line, you want to put him down just on “the Oilers always screw this up” principle? That’s the same logic we’ve had for the past 10 years on the other extreme. “PUT EVERYONE DOWN, NOBODY MAKES THIS TEAM UNTIL THEY’VE BEEN IN THE MINORS FOR 3 YEARS”… Blah blah.
Re-hashing is so much fun though! You can send that 10 year old “study” from the IIHF complete with the foreword from Rene Fasel saying that although report may seem like it is super biased in favour of keeping prospects in Europe, which is better for the IIHF, it is a really unbiased look at things the IIHF paid people to look at for them. When that fails to convince people you can post eye rolls and sighs to indicate your displeasure – end scene.
Wow.
There is plenty on the interwebs that say developing Euros in the AHL is NOT necessarily the best path. You act like it so far out of left field which would be hilarious if it weren’t so obtuse. It’s been done before. Many times.
As far as the article, at least I offered something. Where is your evidence that the AHL is a better development league for European drafted players? Or are you going to continue the mantra “you haven’t convinced me yet”?
Don’t bother.
Random question that’s been on my mind: Do we think there is a chance Chia would opt to protect Reinhart over Davidson for the expansion draft?
I guess it depends on the seasons they have, but given Reinhart was acquired by Chiarelli, and gave up two high rated, expansion protected prospects for him, he could be concerned about looking like an idiot for giving up two high draft picks to develop a player for Las Vegas for two years.
It is a very awkward situation for him, and I’m curious to see what happens.
Kassian yak slepy pak pitlick beck salinen caguila khaira
Topnof my head players hmwho should be given longer looks ahead of JP.
I think it’s pretty likely. All depends how the season plays out of course, but we are forgetting Davidson is getting older for a prospect. What we saw last year could very well be as good as he gets.
Huge passes on Richards and Boyes.. I think some of you want to lose, or only know how to at this point. If Richards is a better option than Lander we should be flushing them both. Not offering up 3C jobs.
LT’s already nailed the ideal line-up.
Lucic-Jesus-Yak
Pouliot-RNH-Eberle
Maroon-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi/Kassian
Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian/Pakarinen
5 things cup winners have
1. HSCA D system coach
Tmac
2. top 10 HSCA save% goalie
#2 (last 3 years) Talbot .886
slow start to oiler career.
3. 3+ top 60 HSCA D with low SA/60. As many in top 4
Larsson (1st comp) top 10 ->Not on team last year
Davidson (2nd comp) top 30 -> missed 31 gm.
Klefbom (1st comp) top 60 -. missed 52 gm
4. 2 Elite Even or 3 lines of Even production depth.
Looking at our players strengths.
EVG/60: rank with like total forward/s
Mcdavid #9 Fwd 1.15
——————————– #1 FWd
Eberle #56 .87 Crosby; Kessel; Couture
——————————-#2 fwd
Kassian #69 .84 Wheeler
Pouliot #70 .83 Hornquist; Krieder
Lucic #76 .82 Gaudreau; Simmonds
——————————- #3 Fwd
——————————————————— Top 3
RNH #100 .77 Williams ; Iginla
Draisatl #116 .74 Season weighted. Hagelin; JVR
Hall #120 .73 Ericksson; Oshie
—————————— #4 Fwd
——————————————————– Top 6
Maroon #181 .64 Ladd; Johansen; Haula
—————————– #7 FWd
Yakupov #249 .54 o’rielly; Brouwer; Etem; Killorn
Beck #259 .53
—————————- #9 Fwd
—————————————————— Top 9
Pakarinen #280 .50 D. Brown; Rieder; Boyes; Brodziak
—————————— #10 Fwd
EVA/60: with like total Forward/s
Mcdavid #8 1.54 Benn
Draisatl #30 1.27 Backstrom; Dubinsky
—————————— #1 Fwd
Maroon #57 1.18 mackinnon; Panarin; D. Sedin; Johansen
—————————– #2 Fwd
Pouliot #64 1.16 Tavares; Nash; Hemsky; Seguin
Lucic #86 1.10 iginla; Pacioretty; Backes; O’Rielly
—————————–#3 Fwd
—————————————————————————- Top 3
Eberle #102 1.05 Steen; Datsyuk; Stahlberg
—————————– #4 Fwd
RNH #158 .92 Anisimov; E. Stall; Monohan; Carter; Bozak
—————————– #6 Fwd
————————————————————————— Top 6
Kassain #191 .87 Simmonds; Eichel; Couture; Pavelski
—————————- #7 Fwd
—————————————————————————Top 9
Yakupov #287 .71 Vermette; Neal; Shaw
T. Beck #287 .71
—————————- #10 Fwd
5. +ve Goal Dif 6.44 PP/PKG/60 is league average.
PK:
Davidson #4 3.58 PKGA/60
Larsson #14 4.95 PKGA/60
Klefbom 3.80 Last year
Gryba 3.96 last year
Fwds last year:
Hendricks 4.35
Mcdavid 5.21
pakarinen 5.72
Letestu 6.26 2 seasons before 6.35
Mike Richards 6.85 2 season before 4.73
Puljujarvi (LOL) looks like a seriously cool player.
ALL THE FUCKING MORE REASON TO SEASON HIM IN THE AHL.
Please feel free to comment, or bravely ignore this post.
Maybe we see what develops this season?
When it come to this issue I care about Jesse Puljujarvi, not Euros in general. Yes, might be better for most Euros to be close to Mamma and all the pickled herring they can get their hands on, but Puljujarvi is not most Euros. He needs to learn enough English to get by in the NHL and he needs to get used to the confines of a North American rink. If he is going to contribute during McDavid’s ELC he needs to come over now and at the very least get a full season in at the AHL level. Sigh, eye roll, fart noises…
Who gives a shit? How’s about using common sense?
These players have no idea how NA sized rinks work. Who else but an idiot(Klowe+MacT) wants to circumvent a patently obvious stepping stone to the NHL?
Fayne has to play with a competent veteran puck-moving defensemen or he is useless. Fayne cannot recover from breakdowns, nor handle the chaos of playing with a young developing defensemen, which is why you have to play him with Sekera rather than Nurse or Reinhart or Osterle.
Davidson has the better skillset to play with Nurse/Reinhart who need Davidson’s mobility and passing ability, two things Fayne does not have.
How bout we narrow it down to Finnish hockey players then shall we?
Do yourself a favor. Go to the roster for the Finnish World Cup team, see when each player was drafted, see WHERE they played after said draft year (and the year after that), give your head a shake and make some more fart noises.
#6 Overall Mikko Koivu says hello.
3 years post draft in SM-liiga followed by another in the AHL.
What a bust.
Holy F6ck did I land on f^cking Mars today?
Puljujarvi’s nine games should NOT be used at the start of the season, unless he is clearly ready to be an impact player in the NHL (i.e. if one can play him regularly in the top 9 with 99% certainty). Otherwise, Rantanen-him. Rantanen got his nine games, but in the 2nd half of the season.
Draisaitl and Puljujarvi on the 3rd line appears to be a solid option for this season. They would always have a veteran left wing, and wouldn’t have brutal minutes or competition. But it could be Draisaitl and Slepyshev just as easily, with Puljujarvi in the AHL.
I’m not predisposed to thinking JP should or shouldn’t play in the NHL this season. I just think he should have to blow the doors off and give them no choice but to keep him. Seems dangerous to expect / pencil him in.
To provide cover for inevitable injuries I think you sign a cheap 1 year guy who can score a bit (i.e. Boyes – he played for like 700k last year). Decent chance he kicks in a dozen goals and you flip him at the deadline for a pick.
3 years in the SM-Liiga and he still need a year in the AHL to finish developing? For a 6th overall pick? That is fucking awful development of a prospect.
As for the team
Forwards:
1. PC wants a physical spot on each forward line.
Lucic LW
Maroon LW
Kassian RW
aoutomatically LW pouliot goes with Kassian
Lucic LW
Maroon LW
Pouliot -Kassian
2. you want the top 3 EVA/60 players spread over 3 lines
Mcdavid
Draisatl
Maroon
Mcd/Drai cannot go with Maroon
Lucic – MCd/Drai
Maroon – RNH-
Pouliot – Mcd/Drai – Kassian
You want to spread out the top EVG/60 on 3 lines.
you want to have the
MCdavid C
Eberle RW
Kassian RW
MCd not with Kassian or Eberle
Pouliot (1st) – Drai (1st) – Kassian
Maroon – RNH (1st) – Eberle (1st)
Lucic -Mcd (1st) – XXX
this gets the 3 best at Size; EVG; EVA on each line. 1st comp (top 30 for position) indicated
4. our top Pk forward line
Hendricks – Letestu- Pakarinen
Dmen:
5. you want your de to have top end EVA/60 to get the puck to the forwards who generate 93.8% of EVG from top 10 Players on a team.
Listed in order of Comp then HSCA
XXX – Larsson top 40 .67 EVA/60 (1st comp)
Klefbom top 30 EVA/60 (1st comp) – XXX
Sekera top 50 EVA/60 VS 2nd comp – XXX
6. GM and WG have stated Davidson’s best #’s vs 1st comp.
I have great faith in the work they do!
Davidson – Larsson
Klefbom -XXX
Sekera -XXX
7. Klefbom and Fayne generated 2 Elite HSCA games for every 1 Avg/bad game in 14-15
very competitive
they allowed 26.95 SA/60 as a pair facing 1st comp.
10 best 1st comp Dpair numbers that year.
fayne’s agent told PC/Tmac, “he would be in shape this year.”
a clear indication of why he was sent down last year and did not achieve his expected Sa/60 Rates.
Davidson – Larsson
Klefbom – Fayne
Sekera – XXX
Spreading the off/ DEF wealth evenly
our team is.
Pouliot (1st) – Drai (1st) – Kassian
Maroon – RNH (1st) – Eberle (1st)
Lucic -Mcd (1st) – XXX
Hendricks – Letestu- Pakarinen
Yak
Puljujarvi
Khaira
Davidson – Larsson
Klefbom – Fayne
Sekera – XXX
Nurse
Gryba
Reinhart
Talbot
Gustavsson/Broisoit
The discards on the waiver wire in October are probably better options that Boyes or Richards, where the Oilers are 2nd on the claiming list. Teams will also be looking to trade better option then, rather than risk waiving them.
Tyler @akaRCN
Stauff suddenly warms to idea of Kris Versteeg… didn’t he just say no to the idea yesterday or the day before? Hm. #Oilers
Hmmmm, indeed.
Rantanen played 6 NHL games in October, and 3 in March.
http://avalanche.nhl.com/club/player.htm?id=8478420&season=20152016&view=gamelog
I think it’s a novel idea but the only argument against it is that he’ll have played in 4 leagues in 4 years:
Finnish Junior – 14-15
Finnish Elite – 15-16
AHL – 16-17
NHL – 17-18
If JP, still just 19, prefers a year close to his family, in a familiar league, etc in order to best develop professionally, that may well be the case as opposed to living in the armpit if California.
Giveb his size and skill he might also be ready to play in the NHL, but for various reasons I’d prefer he played AHL or Finnish Elite.
Yeah it clearly didn’t work out for him. What a Bum.
Anze Kopitar drafted 2005 -11th overall; Draft + 1 yr played in SEL
Nik Backstrom drafted 2006 – 4th overall; Draft + 1 yr played in SEL
Erik Karlsson drafted 2008 – 8th overall; Draft +1 yr played in SEL
OEL drafted 2009 – 6th overall; Draft + 1 yr Played Swe-1
It goes on and on………
Tarasenko ( man the KHL really killed his development), Granlund, Zibanejad , Forsberg, etc….
Yeah “Obvious”.
LT – yesterday you mentioned keeping Draisaitl as a C, and that moving him to the wing belies more organizational failure.
Agree completely. I’ve run my season predictions based on him playing C and now envision he and McDavid pushing Nugent-Hopkins down the rotation and eventually making him a tradeable asset.
I think any sweeping statements are crazy at this point.
Sign another RW vet or bring one in on a PTO. If JP isn’t good enough for the NHL send him down. If he is good enough keep him up.
On whether should JP play in the NHL next year: I suspect the argument might be moot, history is on hags9k‘s side when he says the Oilers probably won’t be able to help themselves from playing JP the full year. Or at least well beyond 9 games, and will send him to a lesser league only if he struggles badly.
On whether he should get 9 games: The point of getting 9 games is that it’s an opportunity for him to knock it out of the park. If he does that, if the NHL is his oyster out of the gate, then he gets to stay.
Because those 9 games are not enough to get a real good bead on his game, he has to produce a result so far out of the ordinary that even with massive regression, those 9 games are so good that he still deserves to stay.
Conversely, for those who say that even 9 games shouldn’t happen, you’re forgetting it is a two way street. The 9 games aren’t just to show the team what the rookie has – it’s to show the rookie what he needs to do to play in the NHL.
Kids who are used to being the strongest and fastest player with plenty of time to make plays will have their eyes opened and their competitive fires stoked when they suddenly realize how much faster and stronger NHL players are, and how much less time they have.
So keep him 9 games, then send him to a developmental league withe a clear plan (unless he blows the doors off in those 9 games).
That’s the smart thing to do. That’s likely not what the Oilers will do.
On another year in a developmental league being a monumental failure of development, per Chachi‘s comment: I don’t understand how you can make this assertion.
Most 3OV and 4OV drafted forwards in the last number of years have spent a good chunk of their post draft years, some up to two years, in a developmental league after being drafted. Including European kids who were ‘playing against men’.
Alex Barkov did make the NHL directly out of the SM-Liiga, but he was also scoring at almost a point a game (.91) vs the rate of Puljujarvi at a little over half that (.56).
As has been pointed out, Rantanen was the highest draft out of the SM-Liiga last year, and he was scoring at rate close to Puljujarvi (0.5). He got his 6+3 games (scoring 0), is down in the AHL and is scoring at over ppg.
Suspect he makes the NHL next year, a year bigger and stronger. He definitely couldn’t handle it his first year.
The teams who early-played 3OV and 4OV picks were generally bad teams. The logical implication (perhaps ’empirical observation’ is the better term) being that lack of depth makes bad teams unable to resist doing bad things … it’s part of what keeps bad teams bad.
Puljujarvi in a developmental league for a large part or all of next year is the most likely action needed for his development, and this isn’t a ‘monumental failure’; it is likely both the smartest course of action, and the one the Oilers will find least palatable.
Every day like is like this around here. The regular denizens have turned over and the yahoos have taken control.
Idiocy like Puljujarvi playing this year in the NHL is par for the course.
But Chiarelli traded Hall in no small part because Puljujarvi will replace him so I’ll be shocked if they do the smart thing.
Why the concern about RW?
They have Eberle, Yak, Kassian, Pak, Beck, Pitlick, Slepy, Russell, and oh, yeah, JP. They ought to be able to cobble together something as good as, or better than, Versteeg.
Language, respect, humility. Three things this thread needs more of today.
Water Fire,
Ca$h-McMoney!,
You are probably both correct about Brossoit being old enough to warrant no longer being treated as a prospect in need of development time. That said, no-one sees him pushing Talbot out of the net for starter time and LB ended last season on a bit of a bump. Is it not wise to allow him half a season down on the farm to regain momentum and confidence at that level, before bringing him up for half a season’s backup role?
Pending injury concerns (which we don’t know about), the only player on your list who is clearly better than Versteeg is Eberle.
Yakupov and Kassian have just as many question marks and poorer track records. The rest aren’t NHL players and even if they are having NHL depth in the AHL is a good thing , and then there is JP.
The only reason not to sign Versteeg is cost.
This shouldn’t be controversial, this should be standard operating procedure with every single prospect who may be ready for the show. Puljujarvi, Nurse, Reinhart, etc. A taste won’t hurt. His development, or the team’s record.
Some say that the first line to start the year should be
Lucic-McDavid-EBERLE
others say
Lucic-McDavid-Yak
Knowing the Oilers it will be
Lucic-McDavid-JP
The option is there to put him in the AHL to get used to N.American ice, which is not always available, so I actually have confidence that Chia will do the right thing and take the AHL option. Even half a season would be of great benefit.
As for the toxicity among some posters these days, that whole humility thing sure went out the window fast. It’s hockey, guys – just fun and games, shits and laughs, etc. Someone holding a different opinion to yours isn’t actually a referendum on the size of your manhood or your worth as a human being (or abominable snowman, in my case).
http://thehockeywriters.com/jesse-puljujarvi-the-next-ones-2016-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/
I recall in JPs 16 year old world junior tournament there was plenty of talk of number one overall, generational talent etc.
Not really saying anything other than there is a possibility this player has an immediate impact.
There is also the possibility he sacrificed some counting numbers during his draft year regular season to work on his two way game. Also seem to recall seeing somewhere he had the best possession numbers on his club team, not that I put a lot of stock in that.
He could actually help right away and the fact that the Oilers should have put first overalls RNH and Yakupov back in junior and have tended to rush shiny new toys into the lineup shouldn’t have any bearing on where this man child plays his hockey this year.
There is another reason.
The Oilers feel JP is ready for a top 9 role.
Seriously, I bet they have his name in pen on the roster this fall already.
The reason I say wait and see with JP is just this:
Too often we’ve seen players gifted an NHL job. To just pencil in Kris Versteeg or JP as 2 / 3 lone RW is to do an injustice to any tryout. The point of training camp is for people to earn their jobs. We are at a point where that is going to happen based on building depth over the past year or so… people will be pushed. (except on RD & Goals)
So if JP comes in and EARNS the job, good. If he doesn’t, send him down. The same goes for every player, veteran or not. Come in and earn your job.
Maybe for certain players who aren’t on the cusp of breaking in or leaving the NHL they do need a very precise development plan but to say “here is the plan for JP” without having seen him play a game alongside NHL players is doing him an injustice.
Just my .02 … Or .25 or whatever.
I don’t doubt you are right. I should have said the only good reason not to sign Versteeg is cost.
Players can develop in any league.
Sometimes you wonder whether the CHL offers enough of a challenge to a player like Marner, or whether talented players in the NCAA aren’t better served turning pro prior to graduating.
Having been subjected to Oilers hockey over this lifetime I feel I can safely conclude that they rush players and thereby interfere with their development.
A bit of revisionist history will instruct that:
1) Taylor Hall was ready, and was the Oilers’ best offensive driver over the back half of his draft +1 season.
2) Paajarvi and Lander however should’ve played a full AHL season before being considered for spots as NHL regulars.
3) Nuge was ready talent-wise, but you wonder what a WHL playoff run and another world junior experience might’ve meant for him. The NHL experience with Renney coaching probably helped develop parts of his game, but aspects of playing in the NHL were likely too challenging for his physical maturity. IMO he ideally plays another season of Junior.
4) Yakupov – probably would’ve been best served in a league like the AHL or pro in Europe, but looked good in the KHL and played well under Kruger. I don’t think the Oilers had much choice but to have him on the pro club after the lockout.
5) Draisaitl – had no business playing any more than 9 NHL games last year
6) Nurse – belonged in the NHL last year but had no business playing a top-pair role.
We can add Gagner to the side of the ledger of “thrown to the wolves too soon”, and it would appear that side far outweighs the: “developed patiently” side.
My favourite training camp dark horse was not Riesen but Patrick Thoresen. God I was rooting for that guy. That guy shed a testicle for his team, after all!
frjohnk,
I’d say that it is more likely that they’ll play Pakarinen as the 4th line RW, and bring Kassian up to the 3rd line. Pakarinen has experience on the PK in Edmonton – he played the 5th most minutes for a forward on the PK last year (with the caveat that players like McDavid and RNH would have played more if not injured.) Lander has a chance here, but Pakarinen likely has the inside track due to McLellan.
PK is critical for most teams, and for Edmonton, who’s emulating the Kings model, more so.
Edmonton was tied for 17th on the PK last season, and they’ll have to improve on that to improve the goal differential.
The PK is likely why they’re looking at Mike Richards, as well.
Gordies Elbow,
I’m for signing Richards for the same reason – Washingtons PK was very strong last year and Richards played more than any other forward during his tenure with the Caps.
I think an additional year in a developmental league is exactly what is awaiting Puljujarvi. If he takes 3 additional seasons in the Finnish league and an additional year in the AHL for him to make it in the NHL that is all well and good for him, but it will have been a monumental failure for the Oilers because by the time he is ready to contribute McDavid will be fully paid. If they think he is going to be a 3 or 4 year project the right play would have been to trade the pick for help now.
*biting tongue*
Sorry LT.
I see Hendricks- Letestu and Pouliot-RNH playing PK, Pak, McDavid maybe even Kassian some spot duty their as well.
On another note about the PK, I think the PK was where a bunch of the injuries occurred.
McDavid was on the PK when he hit the boards.
Nuge blocked a shot and broke his hand on the PK.
Pouliot fell awkwardly into the boards on the PK ( and kept playing!!!)
Hendricks took an humdinger into the can while on the PK
And I think Klefbom hurt his finger behind the net on the PK that ending up costing him the season.
Not sure about Gryba, did he injure his knee on the PK?
I really disagree. Training camp should not be about earning jobs, for the simple fact that they don’t play enough games to either play your way in or out of the lineup. Why should three games against not quite NHL competition outweigh the extensive track record all of these players have? Paying too much attention to training camp is how you get seduced.
If I was running things the lineup would be set before training camp, with the one exception of older guys coming back from injuries who may or may not have something left.
Waiver eligible players who aren’t impact players immediately should almost always start in the AHL. That way you effectively expand your depth chart beyond 23, which makes you much better served to cover for injuries.
So on this particular team the only waiver exempt players that would make the team are Draisatl and McDavid. Nurse, Reinhart, Oesterle, and Puljarvi, Slepyshev, all of them would all start the year in the AHL.
If you do that to LT’s depth chart that gives Gryba a spot on the team + an open spot for a D and a forward. Fill those two spots with the best cheap contract you can find, say Versteeg and an unsigned power play type D (like Barbeiro last year). It is a no lose situation. If they suck, you have replacements in the AHL. If they don’t suck, you have depth for injuries. If you play it the other way, with the waiver exempt players in the NHL, then you have much left in reserve.
It also helps you sort out your depth chart with more information. Why decide between Nurse, Reinhart, and Oesterle in two weeks of irregular games, when you can have two months?
Chachi,
Rather than draw JP’s name on the roster in pen (as history and the lack of RW moves suggests is the case), the smart move would be to wait until he actually earns a roster spot. That might take 9 games, it might take 42 games, it might take 2+ seasons.
If development is needed, it might take more time in a Euro league, time in the AHL, or a blend of both. The player and his developmental needs should dictate the right course of action.
But the idea of ‘develop until you earn a spot’ should be the standard. It won’t be, but it should be.
So I don’t really understand the point you’re trying to make.
Are you suggesting the only options available to the Oilers are either to promote JP to the NHL right away, or wait 1 year, or to wait 3+ years? And you favour the first, because you think the latter two represent a monumental failure?
Or is it that if JP takes that many years to earn an NHL spot, he is a failure? Who is suggesting that is the case?
We can agree to disagree. 🙂
I would suggest however that training camp becomes a moot point and you might as well leave the kids, on the cusp of NHL breakthrough, in whatever developmental league they came from or are returning to. Kris Versteeg should have to out play JP for his job… Best player available gets the slot. We are, after all, trying to win hockey games are we not?
G Money,
Caution, this is non hockey related spam
http://www.roadandtrack.com/motorsports/a30684/racing-a-new-supercar-in-the-sccas-most-grueling-event/
Thought you might be interested G. Was gonna tweet it at you but don’t have your Twitter handle.
Atc-Nate,
This presumes there is such a thing as the “best player” or “earning” a spot. I maintain that you cannot earn a spot in two weeks, and that NHL people are not capable of seeing who is the “best.”
You don’t know what someone is until they have a track record. Much better to establish that track record outside of the NHL.
frjohnk,
Yep, certainly the McDavid and Nuge injuries. PK’ing is dangerous, but Edmonton had more than it’s share of bad luck. That said, they’ll probably go through 6-8 players, and while having players like Nuge and McDavid can keep the opposition PP on their toes, their minutes will be needed to improve the PP.
Kassian only played 6:32 on the PK last season – looking through his history, it’s not something he’s done a great deal of. Taylor Beck had 26 minutes of PK time in Nashville in 2014-15, he might be another one that gets time on the PK.
I can’t argue with that statement and generally actually agree. However by your own verbiage, Leon Draisaitl should not have played the entire year up here last year? So he works his tail off all summer, tears training camp apart. Gets sent down until he can “establish that track record outside the NHL”?
Every prospect takes a unique approach. No two are the same. That’s how each one should be handled, as individuals. A #4 pick is different than a round 4 pick. If JP CAN succeed in the NHL this year, keep him here. If he can’t, send him down. *Shrug*
Benson-McDavid-Puljujarvi
We’re not on the same page with most of your argument, but this is a perfectly sound point.
I think they were strongly considering this option until they realized JP was available. They think he’s special. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t start in the show too.
If he isn’t better than Versteeg this year (I’ll put that line at a thirty point pace) then we’d be fools to burn a year of his ELC when an equivalent player is available for free (and would eat less bonus money).
I also think he’s special. I’m thrilled we drafted him. If the Oilers have him pencilled in
I guess I understand because he is a lot better than the average 4th oa, but in the larger sense I am losing my mind at this teams consistent refusal to take the sure thing. Nurse & Drai vs Hall; JP vs. Subban; Larsson vs. Subban; Yak & JP vs. Versteeg/Boyes; Signing Versteeg/Boyes now vs waiting to see if a better player is available on the waiver wire/trade in October.
You’ve got to get lucky to win, so place your bets. I get that. Not one of these decisions was crazy. I get that too.
But why are they taking two in the bush every single time??? This organisation never met a coin flip they didn’t like. And they’re not gambling spare change either- if every single one of those bets doesn’t hit we don’t just “not win the cup this year”, we’re fucked. (Maybe an overstatement on Versteeg, but if JP has a rough year we 1) Lose a year of optimal development, 2) miss out on valuable production in a fragile season, and 3) needlessly burn a year on a soon-to-be expensive player’s ELC. This adds up.)
The only time they ignored the allure of the mystery box was signing Gustavsson for cheap right out of the gate. They got offered a value deal on an experienced keeper, and they took it. Considering what Enroth signed for and where, it’s hard to say they made a good call.
So lesson isn’t play it conservative, it’s play it right. You need some luck to win, sure, but the official plan is based on getting an awful lot.
A reminder that many ice surfaces in SM-liiga are intermediate in scale to NHL (26 metres wide) and IIHF (30 metres). As of 2012, about half the rinks in the league were 28m wide.
I was searching around for the “because Oilers” LW to replace Lucic in the hypothetical line-up, but you beat me to the best one. Well done!
and if Richards doesn’t work out at 3C, Rasanen should get a long look in camp
Are you defining success as “be better than Versteeg/Boyes”? Because I think it’s important to remember he not only needs to be decent, he needs to be better than the readily available other option.
That said, if a young player in contributing at an NHL level it is tough to send them down, a decision costing them millions, because it’s in the team’s best interests. I just think that the “contributing” line should be a lot closer to “blowing the doors off” than it is to “is more or less as good as a cheap veteran role player.”
And the “JP is ready now” guys should relax a little. If he goes down and scores 30 in 20, he’s coming up whether we signed Boyes or not.
To answer the question you asked someone else, I would not have called Drai up last year. Not as “punishment” for sulking in the AHL, but because I had no reason to believe he was ready for the NHL. He didn’t look ready in the A. Turned out he was, but I’d say he’s more exception than rule. It’s not a perfect maxim, but “people are going to do in the future as they have done in the past” is a pretty good guideline.
Caramel Batman,
– yeah, hopefully this Oiler group is a little smarter. Remember that Russian Midget who played in the QMJHL, that so many were enamoured with because “he worked hard”, and “earned a spot”. Then they found out he wasn’t eligible, then he went back and reality set in: man was that a bad roster that a guy like that could get a chance to earn a spot.
– Here’s a truth that every hockey person knows: A young guy who can move from the slums to getting an NHL spot: he is going to train all summer, to be in peak shape for training camp. He is going to be amped up. He is going to put every ounce of energy into out-hustling veterans. He’s going to be told by the coach that “he has a chance”
– Training camps to determine roster spots is just a narrative made up to keep attention on the team, get fans and rookies excited and playing hard: except for maybe one marginal player, the roster has been made up.
– If they put pool-party with McD and Lucic and on the powerplay, you can tell he’s going to be given a spot.
– Barely anything can happen in training camp that effects the final roster. It’s a chance to make an impression to be sure, but the roster is set based on pedigree, track record, and whatever management has decided.
– That’s just how hockey works.
– Pool-party isn’t going to come into training camp and “blow the doors off, and “force his way onto the team”. they know where he’s going already, and they will set him up accordingly.
stevezie,
It’s not up to me as a fan to determine the line for success, which is why I make the statement vaguely. Blowing the doors off forcing the management to keep them on the team seems like a solid line. Nurse isn’t blowing the doors off, yet he’s likely staying. The line is clearly undefined (oxymoron there) and is position dependant as well as tied to depth in that slot.
I did cherry pick LD… I suppose that I hate the mentality of “let’s send him down and develop him because that’s Detroit’s model”… We pick higher than Detroit (or Chicago or whoever), and they HAVE to develop that way. We are currently a perennial top 5-7 picker and their development curve is significantly different than that of a 15-30 pick.
I would be interested in an LT chart with top 10 picks and where they develop for how long.
I don’t think that the rink or the systems play is going to be as much of a factor, as the Fins play a very Canadian style game. The Finnish team at the WJC could have been coached by McLellan.
That said, the language and cultural differences are huge. Not so very long ago, Edmonton brought the mother of a player from Finland to help him. It’s a difficult transition. He would likely be better off in Bakersfield for the adjustment period.
Oooh!
Oooh!
Oooh!
Thanks man!
I get pinged a lot on whether I’m going to upgrade to the new version of the NSX.
The problem is that I’m old(er) and gray(er) and I don’t drive very fast anymore, or without kids in the car!
Getting old sucks.
(P.S. @OilersNerdAlert)
I’d have to disagree with you here.
Last year Sleppyshev Blew the doors off, he looked really well, an thus he stuck with the team a few games.
Afterall he was not quite ready.
Winning a job in TC is possible, it was also the reaosn Leon was sent down.
So really training camp is where you lose your spot by coming in under fit or playing poorly.
– Sleppy is the example of the marginal guy that makes it as I cited. Not a difference maker, and they set him up to succeed, untill he played real games and at least this time they said: oh no”. Plus Ebs was out so they were hoping
– Last year they so wanted Lander to be ready, pumped his tires, set him up to succeed. Just look at the articles: fesh contract, improved a lot blah blah. It’s basically all figured out in advance.
– Drai 2 years ago, they should have sent him back. Sending him down last year was also a bit of Chia imposing his authora-tie
– All you have to do is read the main stream media, see who management is pumping. It’s all set up well in advance.
First of all, feel free to pay me enough respect to not attribute arguments to me that I didn’t make. I never said the words monumental failure at any point until you brought it up. That’s all you reading things into my argument that aren’t there. I do think he should probably spend a year in the AHL if that is what it takes to get him ready for the NHL. If he needs more time than that to be ready for the NHL at that point they should look at trading him for somebody who can help in the near future.
I agree with everything you have written here. The problem as I see things is that if you send JP to Finland for another year (or two or three) he is a minimum of 2 years away from helping at the NHL level. That is fine for the prospect, but if the Oilers want to win now they need JP to work out quickly either by playing and playing well in the NHL in the next two years or by trading him. He is probably the most valuable asset to trade on the team now that Hall is gone and they need to win now.
I have mixed feelings about our top forwards on the PK. I get the desire to have McDavid or RNH on the PK to create some quick strike offence if the other team fumbles the puck. However, it should be situational, otherwise the risk of injury isn’t worth it to me. I recall one game last season when the Oilers were up 4 or 5 to 1 and McDavid was out killing a penalty in the 3rd period. That makes no sense to me.
McLellan should be telling those guys that if they are out there on the PK they have no requirement to block shots from the point. Maybe go so far as to tell them that they are not allowed to block shots.
I substituted your literal words ‘fucking awful development’ with ‘monumental failure of development’ because I felt it captured the point but sounded better.
But if you prefer ‘fucking awful development’, so be it.
For the team it was a fucking awful development path for a 6 overall pick. So as you can see I did mean something different by it. Different words mean different things.
Chachi,
I have no doubt you know words, you have the best words.
‘When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.’
Yes, in this conversation, I am Trump. You’ll find a lot of my posts talking about companies I have sold and cars I own. Keep trying to belittle people on this forum, it reveals your true character.
Chachi,
Well, for sure you can’t take a joke like Trump.
Damn, how do you even type with hands that small? <- joke, feel free to take as insult if you like
Honestly. I have kids. Why do people think I need more kids?
Drai had a great camp last year and they still sent him down. That was a good sign IMO. They also sent Nurse down.. also good.
So knocking it out of the park in training camp will not be enough. JP will have to first of all get good line mates and PP time in order to post crooked numbers. That may or may not happen.
Chia said last year they will look at the prospects in 10 game windows. I suspect JP gets sent down based on Drai last year but gets recalled fairly quickly.
The flip side is they keep him for 10 games and if he goes supernova then he stays. This would not surprise me either. This kid is the goods. Could be the best player from the draft.
Lowetide,
Can never have too many kids. (So says my wife anyway)
See that was a funny one! Keep it up!
Rich and virile too! Watch out ladies!
Chachi,
I knew I’d win you over!
(also: you forgot ‘charming’ and ‘really really ridiculously good looking’)
This is correct.
Fayne’s RelxGF% with:
Sekera +0.57 RelxGF%
Klefbom -5.36 RelxGF%
Nurse -11.0 RelxGF% (!)
Davidson -25.7 RelxGF% (!!!)
He’s really not much good with anyone except Sekera last year.
Klef and Davidson led the Oilers in xGF% and it was not good with Klef (170min) and a disaster with Davey (only 23 min…)
Edit: Davey was a minus (!!) and these are all relative measures
LT told me to fix that for you. 🙂
One of those players were better than Versteeg last year.
Tom Renney nods in approval.
Lander shutters and throws up in his mouth a little.
Can someone please tell me the date Oilers training camp starts?
Leon had an excellent camp. It was after he got sent down that he struggled for a brief while. As soon as he got called back up he was fine. The case could be made based on his specific experience that sending him to the AHL was counterproductive. Though maybe it lit that fire under his ass that burned hot until Christmas, who knows.
As for nothing in training camp affecting the roster, I’d argue Eberle getting hurt in preseason was a big damn deal.
That also is correct
April 6.
At least most of those guys can pass a physical.
ZING!
Because you create an atmosphere of safety and reasonableality so it attracts us, like needy friends, that don’t go to therapy , and never get better 😊
So FLA lost Campbell (52.9 xGF%, 46.6xGF%Off, +5.15 RelZSR)
Replaced him with Yandle (47.22 xGF%, 46.2xGF%Off, +26.6RelZSR)
and people expect them to be better?
Hmmmmm.
That’s a target for betting the under on point totals.
Brian Campbell.
5’10,170lbs, 37 years old and a total pisscutter.
CHI will be strong this year.
I should have been named Rodney.
With Kane and Toews they’re always going to be strong.
Now with McDavid and… err….
Haha stick him on the OIlers and he’s instantly Andrew Ference.
Probably
They were no screaming hell last year.
Playing two RHD in Van Reimsdyk and Seabrook together was a total disaster.
Campbell makes that team so, so, so much better.
A very good top 4 is so, so, so, important.
The Penguins appear to prove that with a few top players and a decent puck mover …
And then I think of the OIlers. Defencemen that can barely get past their own face off circles…
That’s it. I can’t stand this team anymore. Not until they get a decent puck moving defenceman.
Isn’t there a team we Lowetide galley slaves can adopt this season en masse? A team like Florida, or my fave team in the universe, Tampa? I’ve never been able to get back to Clearwater Beach since college, but man that arena sure looks inviting(all that ice) after a hard day of work, mainly spent lying in the sun.
I had to read that last line twice… the first time through, my brain automatically replaced “… err….” with “Hall”. No word of a lie.
I’ve always had a way with words.
Just replace Errrrr with JP. We know he’s making the team out of camp. 😉
The defence this year is better than every year since the start of 2008 and if health holds, they are better than that team too.
hunter1909,
Tampa. I like cheering for smart management. Everything you could want in a roster too.
hunter1909,
The Penguins appear to prove that with a few top players and a decent puck mover
PIT did wonders with the Dcorps that they had.
I think the key was *every* Dman moved the puck quickly to a spot and the forwards were unfailingly at that spot and the puck moved north in a hurry.
Very well coached team and had tons of neutral zone pressure so teams rarely gained the ozone with speed.
Great coaching.
How did Schultz play? The last time I watched him he was still on the OIlers, playing like there was an old time OHL/IHL goon half a step behind him at all times, three seconds away from taking his head off.
Schultz wasn’t terrible when he joined the OIlers. What do you think happened?
My 2 cents. Richards should be offered a contract. He is exactly what we need. Grit, experience, penalty killing prowess, can handle lots of tough minutes, and something to prove. He is much better than lander or letestu.
Yeah he has slow feet but we are asking for two centres to play 10-12 ugly minutes behind mcdavid and nuge (or Draisaitl if there’s an injury). He fits the bill and could be a slam dunk comeback story.
75% odds are way too high for lander. I’d give him 33% same as slepyshev, beck, sallinen, and khaira. A Richards signing would hurt lander’s chances severely.
So JP to Finland.
Glad we sorted that out.