PENTICTON CITY LIMITS!

by Lowetide

Sometime this week, the Edmonton Oilers will release their Young Stars roster for the Penticton tournament (starts on Friday). As we do every year, let’s have a lash at the roster to see how close we can get.

YOUNG STARS 2016 (PROJECTED)

  1. G Nick Ellis—College grad could surprise and play a lot in Bakersfield. Impressive college SP.
  2. G Dylan Wells—Oilers latest junior bet, needs a strong camp and season in the OHL.
  3. G Keven Bouchard—Training camp invite despite not being signed.
  4. RD Matt Benning—By the sounds of things, he has a chance to make the team in TC.
  5. LD Ben Betker—End of the roster in terms of LD, he is a giant stay-at-home blue.
  6. LD Caleb Jones—I think there is a chance he hangs around training camp until very late.
  7. RD Ethan Bear—I liked him at rookie camp a year ago, curious to see progress.
  8. LD Markus Niemelainen—One of the kids I am most looking forward to seeing at camp.
  9. LD Kyle Jenkins—Apparently an invite, 20-year old with average size and some skill.
  10. RD Aaron Irving—TC invite, I like his ability to move the puck. Back to OK after camp.
  11. RD Dallas Valentine—Big (6.04, 205) defender has been invited to camp.
  12. RC Kyle Platzer—Another player who could help his cause with a strong TC. Big season in California ahead.
  13. C-L Joey Benik—AHL contract, Benik is a small (5.10, 174) and quite skilled. Should rock Penticton.
  14. LC Thomas Foster—Skill center delivered when healthy, intriguing invite.
  15. LC Lane Bauer—Oil Kings center gets an invite (Bob mentioned it the other day).
  16. RC Tomas Soustal—I really like his numbers and scouting report. Invite possibility (Orientation).
  17. L Drake Caggiula—Excited to see his impact this year. Can also play center.
  18. L Braden Christoffer—He will need to fight back the college kids for AHL playing time.
  19. L Scott Allen—A giant (6.03, 198) who came out of college (Alaska-Anchorage). I bet they like him a lot.
  20. L Tyler Benson—He is 2, 1-2-3 in pre-season. Health is the big issue. A terrific pick if he can stay healthy.
  21. L Collin Shirley—Two-way winger with size and some skill. Saskatoon Blades veteran.
  22. R Jesse Puljujarvi—Want to make sure he is healthy, one of several injury questions this fall.
  23. R Patrick Russell—We don’t know him, but he is aggressive and can score.
  24. R Greg Chase—He has a ticket to camp, plays with an edge and can post offense.
  25. R Jaedon Descheneau—Small skill winger, AHL deal and a wildcard entering camp.

I had 27 on my guess list a year ago, including all 26 who were on the actual list (I had Brossoit mistakenly going to camp). The first Oilers Young Stars roster boasted seven legit NHL players—that is a strong total. As for the list above, Scott Allen is 26 so may not appear (despite having just one pro season).

WE’RE NOT WILD ABOUT LEON?

Oilers fans are a fickle bunch. Leon didn’t play a lot in the second period last night for Team Europe and the comments have him slow, failing and trade bait. Folks, this is crazy. Leon Draisaitl is a young, emerging talent who is going to miss Taylor Hall in a big way this season. That does not disqualify him from being considered a big part of this team’s future (and present). Consider the splits:

  • Leon with Hall, 2.32 points-per-60 at 5×5, and his Corsi for 5×5 percentage 51.6.
  • Leon without Hall, 1.13 points-per-60, Corsi for 5×5 percentage 53.3.

Better possession, due likely to lesser competition (that is my opinion) and the offense faded badly. However, when looking at Leon and his deployment alongside the significant LWs a year ago the numbers are good (if contained inside a small sample size):

  • Hall, 2.32 5×5 points-per-60 in 879 minutes.
  • Pouliot, 1.35 5×5 points-per-60 in 44 minutes.
  • Maroon, 1.87 5×5 points-per-60 in 64 minutes.

There is no proof here that Draisaitl will be unable to perform with Pouliot or Maroon—although Hall levels are extremely unlikely for LD this coming season. In my RE, I have his point total falling from 51 to 40 year over year, and I think that is a reasonable expectation.

https://twitter.com/SportsnetSpec/status/775137578198654976

This tweet from Mark Spector appears to have been wildly misunderstood by Oilers fans, in the comments and on my twitter time line. When Krueger says ‘seemed tired’ he did not in fact mean ‘miserable failure as a draft pick and useless player’ and I just wanted to get that out there this morning. Folks, we need to calm down. Using his first two seasons and a tightened age range, the most comparable players to Draisaitl are Nathan Horton, David Pastrnak, Jakub Voracek, Brendan Gallagher and Michael Frolik. (Source). That is a good-to-great range. This will be his third season after draft and he has a 50-point (Hall aided) season to his credit. Perhaps we can hold off on calling him Jason Bonsignore for another year or two?

question

Great questions, Russ. I have been asking about the coaching situation (and players missing) for some time now. Here is an item from this blog on July 15:

  • The Oilers first pre-season games (it is a doubleheader against Calgary) will take place on Monday, September 26. The World Cup of Hockey will be in full bloom, with another week (closes October 1) to go. A bunch of Oilers management and coaching staff will be at the World Cup, while at the same time things will be happening in a very important pre-season back home. Does anyone else think this is a concern? No? Bueller? Source

I remain convinced this should be getting more attention and have written about it several times. Look, the die is cast, but it is interesting to compare the Oilers training camp and that of the Calgary Flames. How many Calgary players and coaches are at the World Cup of Hockey? How many games will Milan Lucic and Connor McDavid play together before opening night? What is the impact of all three centers being unavailable? I am a little surprised this story doesn’t have legs by now.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Monday morning is a tough road, but by 10 I will be seeing straight and fully prepared for radio! Hope you tune in, fun show ahead. Scheduled to appear, TSN1260:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. World Cup of Hockey heating up, Torts trying to make it 1975.
  • Andrew Stoeten, Jays Nation. A tough weekend against the BoSox, but the schedule favors Toronto.
  • Walter Foddis, Beer League Heroes. A long overdue debut on the Lowdown, Walter will discuss the Versteeg addition and its impact on Yak and JP. Plus, defense and WCH.
  • Andy McNamara, TSN-4Downs. NFL Week 1 is almost in the books, we will talk rookie QBs and the offensive stars of Sunday.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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Walter Sobchak

Long time listener, sometime poster.

However, I recall last season the talk around these parts was that (not naming names or placing blame) Draisaitl was injuried, tired, hit a wall.

Fast forward to this year and I’m hearing the same talk….I have to honest, losing Hall is scaring the shit out of me from a Drasaitl point of view.

stevezie

Tahiti Treat has treated me better than the Oilers have. I think I’d rather cheer for them.

stevezie

You could say that a good number one improves all three pairs, but not that he makes the players on those pairs any better.

Even then i feel like you’re kind of cheating. Petry wasn’t a “true #1” (or whatever you want to call it), but he was the Oilers’ best. Should he be blamed for making the other five guys worse?

EDIT:
But then on the other hand, Hjarmalson allows Keith to shine despite rarely playing with him. I see your perspective, Ducey.

Of course, Keith would be good on any team. Hjarmlson affects the roster, but he doesn’t really affect Keith.

Ducey

Caramel Batman: The shelter effect is a constant.It is in effect regardless of who is doing the sheltering.Hence Larsson himself, provides no additional value beyond his own play.

In order for the sheltering effect to operate it as you describe it, four things need to be true.

1) Differences in competition need to be exponential, not linear.
2) There is a category of player who is better under some circumstances than others, i.e. player A has a value of 5 regardless of competition, and hence does no worse (or less worse) against better competition than player B, who is a 5 against middling competition, but a 1 against top competition.
3) Larsson is a player A type player, while the rest of the Oilers are player B type players.
4) Hall is not a player A type player.

Like I said, fairy tales.But go ahead and continue to defend the trade no matter what.

Read what I wrote. Where was I defending the trade?

The rule would apply to Hall too, who no doubt took on tougher minutes leaving easier minutes to others.

I don’t think saying a player like Letang makes a player like Jultz more effective is rocket science – or fairly tales.

Cassandra

Ducey: Your point was that Larsson cannot help sitting on the bench. By sheltering others, he effectively does.

The shelter effect is a constant. It is in effect regardless of who is doing the sheltering. Hence Larsson himself, provides no additional value beyond his own play.

In order for the sheltering effect to operate it as you describe it, four things need to be true.

1) Differences in competition need to be exponential, not linear.
2) There is a category of player who is better under some circumstances than others, i.e. player A has a value of 5 regardless of competition, and hence does no worse (or less worse) against better competition than player B, who is a 5 against middling competition, but a 1 against top competition.
3) Larsson is a player A type player, while the rest of the Oilers are player B type players.
4) Hall is not a player A type player.

Like I said, fairy tales. But go ahead and continue to defend the trade no matter what.

RexLibris

G Money:
Leon without Hall, 1.13 points-per-60, Corsi for 5×5 percentage 53.3.

It so happens that Leon’s CF% with Yak is 53.3%.

Coincidence?

Well, actually, yeah.

I mention Draisaitl’s ability in the preseason prediction series (part one up today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cCbo1PhMzY).

General concensus is that Hall took Draisaitl along for the ride last season. I don’t believe this to be the case. Hall may have been carrying Draisaitl to some extent, but the big German was as light as a feather as far as linemates go. Draisaitl played extraordinarily well against all levels of opposition in the DFF category. His IPP was astonishingly high – the highest of any player with a significant sample size that I have examined amongst the three teams. It exceeds Hall’s IPP by 0.2. The only players in this exercise to exceed him were Kassian, Pakarinen, Hunter Shinkaruk, and Jayson Megna. As the song goes, one of these things is not like the other. Draisaitl was the only one of those four facing elite level competition and statistically co-piloting the bus. Lest anyone think that perhaps this was unsustainable, he finished the season with a 999 PDO, meaning his play is most likely within the realm of repeatability.

Oddspell

Now I know it’s early (7 games), but Lil Vladdy Tkachev is current sitting 2nd in points and 1st in goals in the KHL. Could there be an NHL player there? And would he still be inclined to join the Oilers?

stush18

Caramel Batman: Like I said, magical powers.It is interesting how people believe in things that do not exist.And if they did exist would apply to Taylor Hall in exactly the same way.I invite you to think through this proposition some more.

Now if you want to play this game, a good point would be to suggest that it is possible Larsson may play more than Hall.This would have the chaining effect you are describing.

This does happen in baseball by the way.A closer is more valuable than a middle reliever.However, this isn’t because the competition is better in the ninth inning of a close game, but because those innings have more leverage, that is good performance has a greater relevance on the final score.

The same phenomenon does not occur in hockey.

Also the drop from hall-lucic-pouliot-maroon etc is less than the drop of from Larsson-fayne-lefty

Hockey is more in line with soccer than baseball. Single players can win games for teams in baseball, it is much less a team sport. They’ve done studies to show that soccer teams with star forwards do worse than teams with no weak links.

Attack the weak link, (rd) and it doesn’t matter how good or what our left wing is doing.

Ducey

Caramel Batman: Like I said, magical powers.It is interesting how people believe in things that do not exist.And if they did exist would apply to Taylor Hall in exactly the same way.I invite you to think through this proposition some more.

Now if you want to play this game, a good point would be to suggest that it is possible Larsson may play more than Hall.This would have the chaining effect you are describing.

This does happen in baseball by the way.A closer is more valuable than a middle reliever.However, this isn’t because the competition is better in the ninth inning of a close game, but because those innings have more leverage, that is good performance has a greater relevance on the final score.

The same phenomenon does not occur in hockey.

Your point was that Larsson cannot help sitting on the bench. By sheltering others, he effectively does.

Ca$h-McMoney!

Woogie63,

That a boy.

Now if I only knew a place to find quality after-market insulin shots.

Woogie63

Ca$h-McMoney!,

Thanks for the tip, I just stopped in at the Jolly Good and bought a Tabitian Treat!

wheatnoil

I broke down how much TOI per age range Bakersfield played their forwards compared to AHL average.

https://twitter.com/WheatNOil/status/775428653375102976

I also have Providence here…

https://twitter.com/WheatNOil/status/775431914832273408

I can do any team in the AHL for forwards. I’ll try to work on D in the next little bit.

Cassandra

Ducey: A good player can make other players better while he is on the bench.

If Larsson plays the toughs, it means other D get easier minutes, resulting in better performance throughout the lineup.

Err, yeah, what Oiln5 said

Like I said, magical powers. It is interesting how people believe in things that do not exist. And if they did exist would apply to Taylor Hall in exactly the same way. I invite you to think through this proposition some more.

Now if you want to play this game, a good point would be to suggest that it is possible Larsson may play more than Hall. This would have the chaining effect you are describing.

This does happen in baseball by the way. A closer is more valuable than a middle reliever. However, this isn’t because the competition is better in the ninth inning of a close game, but because those innings have more leverage, that is good performance has a greater relevance on the final score.

The same phenomenon does not occur in hockey.

Alpine

I still like the pairings model best for our top nine forwards.

Lucic-McDavid
RNH-Eberle
Pouliot-Draisaitl

Our six best forwards spread through three lines. Interchange as needed. If all six are healthy, they’re should never be more than two on one line. Exchange Yak, Maroon, and Versteeg as needed. Puljujarvi goes to Bako.

G Money

Water Fire,

Plus that stick of his, hewn with Leon’s bare hands from a single mighty Redwood, weighs at least 100 lbs.

Ducey

Caramel Batman: So you are saying that Larson is so good that not only does he make his position better while he is on the ice, but he makes the performance of other players better while he is on the bench?

It must be nice to have magical powers.

A good player can make other players better while he is on the bench.

If Larsson plays the toughs, it means other D get easier minutes, resulting in better performance throughout the lineup.

Err, yeah, what Oiln5 said

Oiln5

Caramel Batman,

Just the fact he pushes everyone else down the lineup, while taking the top comp himself. My point is the impact of a strong d-corps greatly outweighs the loss of one “river pusher” on the wing.

Water Fire

Leon’s problem is all physics, his big helmet creates drag which means he needs an extra .015 % watts power from leg drive which increases relative to velocity.

So the fatigue compounds the faster he skates, or something like that.

Cassandra

Oiln5: I think you overvalue a speedy winger, who’s style would produce good corsi numbers on any good or bad team. Larsen improves our 1,2, and 3 RD slots a great deal moving forward. As fun as Hall was to watch, he’ll be forgotten very quickly once Oiler fans start seeing some results, and figure out a solid d-corps is the backbone to any successful team.

So you are saying that Larson is so good that not only does he make his position better while he is on the ice, but he makes the performance of other players better while he is on the bench?

It must be nice to have magical powers.

Oiln5

Caramel Batman:
*For those keeping score, it is obvious that swapping out Hall for Lucic and Larsson makes the team better in the short term.The problem is that it makes it worse in the long term when Lucic is an albatross, and doesn’t do enough in the short term.If you are going to sell the future for the present, the present has to pay off.

I think you overvalue a speedy winger, who’s style would produce good corsi numbers on any good or bad team. Larsen improves our 1,2, and 3 RD slots a great deal moving forward. As fun as Hall was to watch, he’ll be forgotten very quickly once Oiler fans start seeing some results, and figure out a solid d-corps is the backbone to any successful team.

Ducey

Truth: Leon played all three games for Germany in their Olympic Qualifier games on Sept. 1, 2, and 4th in Europe, then flew to Canada at some point for presumably a couple practices minimum before their first game on the 8th.Then (I assume) practices every day until their game last night.Reider and Ehrhoff did the same, but I believe they were both healthy scratches yesterday for this reason. Draisaitl was not but clearly should have been.

I don’t think it’s fair to criticize his conditioning in this instance. Those big players are also very deceiving, they get a lot further on one stride than the small guys.

Leon won the Mem Cup MVP in 2015. As far as I know, that tournament is fairly late in the season.

He ran out of gas last season, but so did the great Taylor Hall.

Hilmar

Bruce McCurdy: Without wishing to point fingers *(cuz some would surely point straight back at me) I’m not sure we all “remember” numbers as well as we’d think.

Yep. I’d argue the same statement CAN apply to (our interpretation of) numbers.

Indeed, and how do we weigh different metrics against each other on top of that? Which numbers do we choose to remember and publish, and why?

Thanks for the Yakupov numbers too, will be interesting to see how he does this season.

Truth

sliderule:
To my eyes Leon is not a very well conditioned player.

From the middle of the shift on he tries to coast and hide.

When he gets a chance to swing to offence he springs to life and will jump into play but if it’sdefensive coverage or back checking he fades from the scene.

I would be very interested in how his VO2 tests compare with the rest of oilers as I suspect he is near the bottom.

I was hoping he would improve his conditioning over the summer but so far I don’t see it.

Leon played all three games for Germany in their Olympic Qualifier games on Sept. 1, 2, and 4th in Europe, then flew to Canada at some point for presumably a couple practices minimum before their first game on the 8th. Then (I assume) practices every day until their game last night. Reider and Ehrhoff did the same, but I believe they were both healthy scratches yesterday for this reason. Draisaitl was not but clearly should have been.

I don’t think it’s fair to criticize his conditioning in this instance. Those big players are also very deceiving, they get a lot further on one stride than the small guys.

Hilmar

Woodguy: I agree that it could have been done better, but was still a fun exercise.

As for confirmation bias, its actually worse than you think since the more you know about a subject, the more likely you are to create a false memory.

I actually think it is pretty bad to start with, thank you very much! 😉

I have always held the opinion that asking a passionate fan about something is the worst way to get an objective view. This is made obvious every time the ref blows the whistle, regardless of the verdict, you’ll always see the home crowd exaggerate whether it was right or wrong.

On the other hand, most people are there for the entertainment, and caring makes better entertainment like appetite makes better food. Is there a place for being correct and objective? Sure, but when your team wins the Stanley Cup on a low percentage play, who’s going to cross their arms and say that it would have been better to dump the puck in the corner?

To me personally the meta questions are more interesting than statistics/eye test themselves, I watch hockey mostly for the entertainment and I have no ambitions to become a statistician, so knowing more doesn’t serve much of a purpose other than being a curiosity, and being right of course, it’s important to be right about hockey! 😉

Knowing more about knowing more on the other hand, that’s interesting stuff for sure.

ashley

G Money:
The last couple of months since WG and I released the WoodMoney database, I’ve been working on background database stuff to prepare for launching a site.

We’ve had a trio of superstar volunteers join our team to help both with the site and with extending and developing the WoodMoney metric itself.

During that time, I have particularly enjoyed the grief that LT has subjected Darcy to on his show as a result of the lack of visible progress.

The database that powers WoodMoney and will power the site is called MongoDB.

The site deployment was originally slated to use a cloud-based provisioning service for MongoDB called mLabs.

In the last two months, two new cloud offerings supporting MongoDB have come out, one from MongoDB itself (Atlas) and one from Google (Cloud Platform).

The price of running MongoDB at the scale we will likely require has fallen by somewhere between half to two thirds as a result.

At this rate, I’m thinking if I wait a few more months it will be free!

Technology!Sci-sci-science!Poetry in motion!

This is why we never invest in tech start-ups. There are always others working on the same thing, and statistically speaking, one of them will do it better, faster, and cheaper rendering the start-up’s product valueless. Then the company, with no means of generating revenue, also has close to zero book value in one fell swoop.

Of course, when one of these tech start-ups hits, the upside is immense. Needle in a haystack.

slopitch

G Money,

Interesting. We use mlab at work here. Might have to switch to Atlas. I was planning on waiting a couple months to make sure it was stable.

Leon is a year younger then Nurse and everyone has given up on him already. It’s a natural progression. I kid. But Im a guy who still hopes Gagner can figure it out though so what do I know 🙂

Spengler

godot10,

That wasn’t meant as a serious suggestion of the personnel to choose!

Ari

wheatnoil: It probably also depends on the quality of your 7th D vs 12th forward, but it is interesting.

It may allow for more specialization of roles on D. With only 6 D, most of them have to play a significant number of even-strength minutes and at least one special team. If you’re adding a 7th D, it’s easier to bring in a PP / offensive zone specialist who plays 10-12 minutes a night (or conversely a PK / defensive minutes specialist to take the load off one of your D who might otherwise be asked to play both special teams and heavy EV minutes).

Meanwhile, your 12th forward might play one special team and on some teams is only getting 6-8 minutes a night total, often against the worst players on the other team. Instead, you’re double-shifting a skilled winger against weaker comp. Given the information from DTMAboutHeart about spreading your talent over lines, going 11 F does force you to do that with your wingers a little more.

11F + 7D would have been ideal for the Oilers over the last few years. The 12th man has always been awful and the D has primarily been one- dimensional, offensively-challenged types that could have benefitted from a PP specialist dman.

Plus, they always seemed to have a top-9 winger who could have used more ice.

sliderule

To my eyes Leon is not a very well conditioned player.

From the middle of the shift on he tries to coast and hide.

When he gets a chance to swing to offence he springs to life and will jump into play but if it’s defensive coverage or back checking he fades from the scene.

I would be very interested in how his VO2 tests compare with the rest of oilers as I suspect he is near the bottom.

I was hoping he would improve his conditioning over the summer but so far I don’t see it.

N64

G Money: The price of running MongoDB at the scale we will likely require has fallen by somewhere between half to two thirds as a result.
At this rate, I’m thinking if I wait a few more months it will be free!

If you swing by the pound you can probably pick up a MongrelDB just for the price of the shots. But Beware of MongolDBs. Classic blunder getting involved with them and their land wars. 😉

Woodguy

Hilmar:
Woodguy,

To make my point more concise, it would have been more interesting to see the point made that even when you care, you don’t remember everything as well as you’d think. Sometimes you remember worse when you care more because of confirmation bias for example.

I agree that it could have been done better, but was still a fun exercise.

As for confirmation bias, its actually worse than you think since the more you know about a subject, the more likely you are to create a false memory.

wheatnoil

Spengler:
wheatnoil,

That was my first thought as well.Less rigidity in choosing lineups with 12F could allow you to select a player like (gords help us) Brad Hunt and just use him for 6 minutes a night on the PP.

I was thinking of a guy like Adam Clendening. I have roasted Clendening in my Oilers Rig posts for being terrible at zone exits, terrible at zone defence, and having poor possession during his time on the Oilers.

HOWEVER, he did rack up points and in a very limited sample size from Ryan Stimson’s passing project, he was very involved in shot attempts for with the Oilers. He was the shooter or primary passer on a high % of shots attempted by the Oilers while he was on the ice in the couple of games they tracked.

So, while he’s a mess in the defensive zone, he seems to have legitimate puck-moving ability in the offensive zone. He could be a good option as a 7D if you’re running that kind of system.

For that matter, it might be a way for the Canucks to use Philip Larsen, who played wing for the Oilers for quite a few games. That way, if a forward does go down to injury, you can push Larsen up and still run 6D.

From an Oilers perspective, maybe that’s a way to use Joey Leggs down the road.

godot10

Spengler:
wheatnoil,

That was my first thought as well.Less rigidity in choosing lineups with 12F could allow you to select a player like (gords help us) Brad Hunt and just use him for 6 minutes a night on the PP.

Brad Hunt was NOT good on the power play in the NHL. His inability to help the team get the puck up the ice into the offensive zone totally negated his shot, because he ended up taking very few shots.

The coach who knew him best, Todd Nelson, when he became interim coach, almost immediately had Hunt sent back to the AHL, and recalled Marincin.

And when further injuries hit, had Davidson and Musil recalled instead.

And Todd Nelson’s NHL power play rock-n-rolled.

#TheMythOfBradHunt #JustMoreMacTBS

Bruce McCurdy

Hilmar: Did Yak’s production drop after or before his injury? (I seem to remember it dropped before, but frequently see people claim the other)

This is an interesting question. Here’s a case where raw numbers tell a story, though again it probably depends on which ones get chosen. I’ll run with simple boxcars here:

Games G- A- P, +/-, PIM
1- 11: 2- 8- 10, +3, 4
12-22: 0- 2- 2, -4, 8
————————
assassinated by NHL official
————————
23-34: 2- 0- 2, -6, 0
35-47: 2- 0- 2, -6, 6
48-60: 2- 5- 7 -4, 6

The stretches aren’t equal; he got hurt in Game 22 so I went with 2x 11-game stints, and split the 38 games after his return 12-13-13. One could do the splits in other ways but it wouldn’t much matter given his 9-game pointless run from Games 28-36 and 6-game pointless skein from Games 45-50.

That opening stretch was nice, and his finish of 2-5-7 (though -3) in just the last 10 games was decent as well. In between was a whole lot of meh with just 6 points in 39 games, with close to 30% of those games occurring pre-injury.

The opening stretch also stood out for its “+” nature, while a possibly-significant footnote is his 0 PiM in the first month (= 12 games) after his return, possibly suggestive of a more tentative approach while playing with the bum wheel.

I mention that last part as an example how one person’s interpretation of the numbers might put different levels of meaning in the data at our disposal.

Spengler

wheatnoil,

That was my first thought as well. Less rigidity in choosing lineups with 12F could allow you to select a player like (gords help us) Brad Hunt and just use him for 6 minutes a night on the PP.

The other thought I had is that it would be interesting to see whether this effect translated across different talent groups. For example, for the Lightning, their weakest link could have been the 12th forward. However, for the Oilers it could be argued the weakest link was the 6th and 7th defenders. Is it the statement or the personnel basicall.

Bruce McCurdy

Hilmar: To make my point more concise, it would have been more interesting to see the point made that even when you care, you don’t remember everything as well as you’d think.

Without wishing to point fingers *(cuz some would surely point straight back at me) I’m not sure we all “remember” numbers as well as we’d think.

Sometimes you remember worse when you care more because of confirmation bias for example.

Yep. I’d argue the same statement CAN apply to (our interpretation of) numbers.

Ducey

delooper: He took three penalties, two of them with dreadful timing.The worst was close to the end of the 3rd.It was a 1-1 game, and they had a 2-minute 5-on-3. Vancouver had a great chance to put the game away. He also took a penalty when they were up 1-0, allowing Victoria back into the game.

He wasn’t skating very well, although I don’t know how well he can skate. He seemed behind the play a little too often for a player who should be a good NHL prospect.The only thing he did well (to my eyes) was he played pretty decently on the PK.But he seemed lethargic out there.

Two of his penalties were rather pointless o-zone penalties.

Neither team played very well.There was a small stretch in the 2nd period where both teams were reasonably-intense.Vancouver looked like the better team for most of the game.They’re a bigger team, had control of the puck most of the time, and seemed a little swifter out there. That’s why it looked to me like Benson gave the game away.

He has not played since February. Even then, he only played two games in February before shutting it down, so he has not really played since December. Before that he missed a month at the beginning of the season with surgery to his tailbone.

I imagine given his injury (pubis) he likely had a long period where he couldn’t do much but rest.

He likely has a long road to shake off the rust and get back to feeling comfortable.

Jesse

Melman: I believe the correct term is Johanssonites

San Dieg-UNS.

Ribs

What is the impact of all three centers being unavailable? I am a little surprised this story doesn’t have legs by now.

The good side of this is that these players and coaches should be in great shape and up to speed by the time opening night comes around.

This seems like a pretty silly tournament to have, but here’s hoping the players have some fun and make it worthwhile. It’s nice to see all the smiles and camaraderie out there. We don’t see that enough these days.

delooper

Protagonist: Can you be more specific? Uninterested? Unskilled? Insulted Stan Weir? What did Benson do? Since he was a lauded second round pick that most of us have very high hopes for, a seriously bad game wouldn’t go over well. Then again, the smallest of sample sizes here.

He took three penalties, two of them with dreadful timing. The worst was close to the end of the 3rd. It was a 1-1 game, and they had a 2-minute 5-on-3. Vancouver had a great chance to put the game away. He also took a penalty when they were up 1-0, allowing Victoria back into the game.

He wasn’t skating very well, although I don’t know how well he can skate. He seemed behind the play a little too often for a player who should be a good NHL prospect. The only thing he did well (to my eyes) was he played pretty decently on the PK. But he seemed lethargic out there.

Two of his penalties were rather pointless o-zone penalties.

Neither team played very well. There was a small stretch in the 2nd period where both teams were reasonably-intense. Vancouver looked like the better team for most of the game. They’re a bigger team, had control of the puck most of the time, and seemed a little swifter out there. That’s why it looked to me like Benson gave the game away.

Water Fire

LT – Shirley is the new Captain of the Blazers, 3 seasons there.

G Money

The last couple of months since WG and I released the WoodMoney database, I’ve been working on background database stuff to prepare for launching a site.

We’ve had a trio of superstar volunteers join our team to help both with the site and with extending and developing the WoodMoney metric itself.

During that time, I have particularly enjoyed the grief that LT has subjected Darcy to on his show as a result of the lack of visible progress.

The database that powers WoodMoney and will power the site is called MongoDB.

The site deployment was originally slated to use a cloud-based provisioning service for MongoDB called mLabs.

In the last two months, two new cloud offerings supporting MongoDB have come out, one from MongoDB itself (Atlas) and one from Google (Cloud Platform).

The price of running MongoDB at the scale we will likely require has fallen by somewhere between half to two thirds as a result.

At this rate, I’m thinking if I wait a few more months it will be free!

Technology! Sci-sci-science! Poetry in motion!

Hilmar

Woodguy,

To make my point more concise, it would have been more interesting to see the point made that even when you care, you don’t remember everything as well as you’d think. Sometimes you remember worse when you care more because of confirmation bias for example.

Melman

Jethro Tull: Lowetide-a-rinos?

Stoopid Flanders.

I believe the correct term is Johanssonites

rickithebear

LT: Draisatl: has only played with one line over 100 EVTOI MIN
From Corsica hockey.

Hall- Draisatl- Purcell: 502.07 EVTOI
+ 14.70 Corsi Dif/60; +9.21 SH Dif/60; +.36 Goal Dif/60

Drai-Purcell W/ Pak; Yak 42.95 EVTOI
+1.40 Corsi Dif/60;
0.00 SH dif/60 ;
+1.40 Goal dif/60

Hall-Drai W/ Pak; Yak 100.31 EVTOI
0.00 Corsi Dif/60;
-2.21 SH Dif/60;
-2.21 Goal dif/60

Drai in combo W/ Pouliot; Ebs; 70.38 EVTOI
+4.43 Corsi dif/60;
+1.33 SH Dif/60;
+.44 goal dif/60

Hall-Drai W/ Pouliot; Ebs 54.36
-6.62 Corsi dif/60;
+2.21 SH Dif/60;
-1.10 Goal dif/60

when you actually look at linesit gives a truer picture.

Hall-Drai -Purcel Scary good
————————————————————–
Drai in combo w/ Pou, Ebs well Above Average PvP
Drai – Purcell W/ Yak, Pak Above average
———————————————————–
Hall-Drai W/ Ebs well below average.
Hall -Drai W/ Yak; Pak well below average.

wheatnoil

Woodguy:
Also interesting was 12F 6D – vs 11F – 7D:


Optimal Roster Structure in Hockey – Eric Cantor (Shippensburg University)

Eric did some extensive research with the Tampa Bay Lightning. He broke down whether or not it was better for Tampa Bay to run with the classic 12F 6D approach or if the 11F 7D approach was more beneficial. Tampa Bay has gone with the 7D approach more often than other teams which made them ideal for a study like this. He found that Tampa did much better with the 7D approach. Most stats saw improvement including things like zone entries and shot assists percentage. Not all teams have the ability to do this and this research is only scratching the surface by covering one team but it is a start and is something to keep track of as we move forward.

I think the 11F-7D thing is fascinating.

Your 5th and 6th Dmen will play more than Fowards 7-12 so it maybe it *should* be intuitive that supplementing your Dcorps is more important than your 12th forward.

It probably also depends on the quality of your 7th D vs 12th forward, but it is interesting.

It may allow for more specialization of roles on D. With only 6 D, most of them have to play a significant number of even-strength minutes and at least one special team. If you’re adding a 7th D, it’s easier to bring in a PP / offensive zone specialist who plays 10-12 minutes a night (or conversely a PK / defensive minutes specialist to take the load off one of your D who might otherwise be asked to play both special teams and heavy EV minutes).

Meanwhile, your 12th forward might play one special team and on some teams is only getting 6-8 minutes a night total, often against the worst players on the other team. Instead, you’re double-shifting a skilled winger against weaker comp. Given the information from DTMAboutHeart about spreading your talent over lines, going 11 F does force you to do that with your wingers a little more.

Hilmar

Woodguy:
Some interesting fancystats stuff that I came across:

THE EYE TEST:

http://www.wingingitinmotown.com/2016/7/13/12167622/the-eye-test-test

This is a very interesting exercise to test how much you see when you watch a game.

While this is an interesting idea and does make the point that our memories are often much worse than we realize, I think the execution of the video in the context could have been made a lot better.

I understand that his point is not to compare fancies’ with the eye test in the particulars of the video or his question, because fancies’ like Corsi or DFF doesn’t answer any of the questions either. I would however have appreciated the video more if he could have pointed the important things out.

For instance something like.

Did you see Hedman good?

Why? How many good things did he do? How many bad? How many led to chances for/against? How many of those were “dangerous”?

What I’m getting at is that you can only remember what you pay attention to, the brain has to have a context for it to stick. Simply asking how long time the puck was kept in the Detroit zone only shows this particular truth, nothing else. It is impossible to remember, and I don’t think anyone argues that it is possible, because in the end, no one cares how long time was spent, at most people would care that Tampa kept a nice pressure on Detroit.

Maybe the best question asked was who got the puck out of the zone for Detroit, that one might be possible to answer with some familiarity of the Detroit players and some attention to those players’ performance. I don’t know Detroit that well, so I flunked that one too. 😀

Just to be clear, I’m not arguing against the validity of his point, just that with some more effort it could have been made a lot clearer. Something aimed at showing people’s confirmation bias for a full game (or why not season) would have been very interesting to see IMO. Like did Hall make less of an effort after 2/3 of the season? Did Yak’s production drop after or before his injury? (I seem to remember it dropped before, but frequently see people claim the other)

The other link is interesting, will make sure to look into that one further, thanks for both!

Chachi

Jethro Tull: There’s disagreement, then there’s vitriol.

There’s “I really don’t like this format, I think having amalgamated teams dilutes the spirit behind having a ‘World Cup’,” and there’s“I can’t believe this would need to be explained to anyone.”Which we all know is code for “you’re all a bunch of fudging morons.”

I’m only yanking yer crank.

How’s Joanie?

No, you were being an asshole. I can admit I was also being an asshole. Joanie says that we are all a bunch of assholes, especially Woodguy <3

Jethro Tull

Chachi: Thanks! It is much more interesting when everyone agrees on everything, right?

There’s disagreement, then there’s vitriol.

There’s “I really don’t like this format, I think having amalgamated teams dilutes the spirit behind having a ‘World Cup’,” and there’s “I can’t believe this would need to be explained to anyone.” Which we all know is code for “you’re all a bunch of fudging morons.”

I’m only yanking yer crank.

How’s Joanie?