SWEAT BOX SESSIONS

For a team that was so undermanned to win a hockey game, there needed to be large elements of luck, hard work, actual skill and possibly poor performance by the other side. I don’t think last night’s Flames played badly, so the other elements can be blamed (or credited) for the final result. Let’s have a look at specific players.

benning-capture3

GAME NOTES, SEPTEMBER 17

  • R Tomas Soustal: 0-0-0, -1 and no shots. Part of the 4line, I do not recall a major moment in his minutes last night. A lot of chasing and that is a theme for the evening.
  • R Jaedon Descheneau: 1-1-2, +1 and three shots. I enjoyed his game very much even before the OT winner. He is a fine combination of speed and skill—he is a former fifth-round pick who went unsigned—and that year of injury in 2015-16 might have been a lucky turn for Edmonton. Early days, a nice arrow last night for a player who needs to impress.
  • L Joey Benik: 2-0-2, -1 and three shots. Ran some good fortune for the two goals but Benik also sniped a beauty on the second goal. He seems to be around the puck a lot, a sure sign of a skill player. He is on an AHL deal, but it will be interesting to see how much playing time he gets in the AHL.
  • R Patrick Russell: 0-0-0, -1 and two shots. He is slow. That is a problem. Two games in a row, we have seen him carry the heavy boots, and last night in a long puck chase we saw the straightaway speed was as suspect as the quick start speed. Early days, I did not see him good.
  • L Collin Shirley: 1-0-1, even and two shots. The goal should never have gone in but credit where due—Shirley forced the goalie to make a play. I noticed him a couple of other times, the lines got shuffled here and it seemed to me Shirley played as a regular.
  • L Lane Bauer: 0-0-0, -1 and no shots. I really like Bauer as a player, he has good two-way instincts. Speed is the issue and I think he is more effective at center.
  • C Carson Stadnyk: 0-0-0, -1 and no shots. Among the no-names, he has emerged as a guy who has the speed and size to actually be considered a prospect. I thought he played well in a minor role.
  • L Braden Christoffer: 0-0-0, even and two shots. He is more mature than most of the players on this roster, and it shows in every shift. I didn’t see him near much offense—despite playing with skill—and that is going to be his issue in moving up the pro depth chart.
  • C Thomas Foster: 0-0-0, -1 and two shots. He was the most effective player on his line, I think he moved up a little when injuries hit. He has good foot speed.
  • C Chad Butcher: 0-1-1, +1 and three shots, 2PIMS. He had a significant impact, although an injury robbed him of some playing time. He has been noticeable in a good way two games in a row, a small forward who is definitely skilled enough to stand out at this tournament.
  • C Kyle Platzer: 0-0-0, even and two shots. He was my No. 3 star in this game, for me bad luck (goal posts!) have followed him all tournament. He stands out at this level, but he did as a younger man, too. Edmonton badly needs to give him substantial AHL minutes this season. There could be a player here.
  • R Greg Chase: 0-0-0, even and one shot, 2PIMS. Placed on a line with Christoffer and Platzer, Chase did have a better game and helped create offense. Took what I thought was an undisciplined and unnecessary penalty, your mileage may vary.
  • LD Ben Betker: 0-0-0, even and one shot, 2PIMS. Another strong game from the giant blue, I think he looks more mobile this year but we will know more about that at main camp.
  • LD Caleb Jones: 0-0-0, -2 and two shots. He was my No. 2 star, very mobile player who can battle and win, while also having the wherewithal to get that puck to a good place and on its way. I think he is emerging as a legit NHL talent and he may hang around later than many of the other blue. The fact he received top-pairing treatment in these two games is a big deal in my opinion. Coaching staff loves him, and for good reason.
  • RD Matt Benning: 0-0-0, -3 and two shots, 2PIMS. Unusual to give No. 1 star to a guy who has a -3 in a game his team won, but he skated miles and as mentioned this was an outmanned roster. He has the range of skills, and I remain impressed with his ability to win battles. He is kind of a young Andrew Ference in that way, and Benning is good with the puck on his stick. Like Jones, I think this tournament may be a stepping off point to a larger role in main camp. I have liked his game very much.
  • RD Kayle Doetzel: 0-0-0, even and 7PIMS. I hope he is okay, did not see him return. He rocked Tkachuk and then answered against Smith, cranking the giant and winning a fierce battle. He got noticed for sure, especially since he was giving up four inches and 30 pounds to Hunter Smith.
  • RD Aaron Irving: 0-1-1, +1 and two shots, 2PIMS. I like him every game he plays, and last night was no exception. He makes intelligent plays with the puck and is a reliable blue in all situations. I bet Bob Green loves him and wonder if he gets a pro deal this time next year (likely to return to the Oil Kings).
  • LD Kyle Jenkins: 0-0-0, +1 and one shot. He was good to my eye, has some range to his game and good speed. Chiarelli brought a far better defense to this camp that we have seen in past Young Stars tournaments. Some are homegrown, but they are all good.
  • G Dylan Wells: He made 35 saves in 38 shots, .921. He saw all of the ice around his net, and ran luck to the outer edge. That said, he also made some brilliant saves and won a game Edmonton had no business winning. I don’t think his performance was in any way similar to that of Ellis in the previous game, but it is important to remember age and experience. He needs to buy calm feet, but is athletic.

My three stars:

  1. Matt Benning
  2. Caleb Jones
  3. Kyle Platzer

One more game, it goes tomorrow afternoon at 12:30. I will not have a GDT for it, but tomorrow morning’s post will have a generous amount of information on the game. I will also have an item on Dennis Wideman up today, either here or at ON. I spoke to Frank Seravalli of TSN on Friday, and he mentioned Wideman as a player of interest for Edmonton.

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88 Responses to "SWEAT BOX SESSIONS"

  1. TsuDhoNimh says:

    Forget Wideman, that Nakladal kid looked pretty good last night.

  2. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    TsuDhoNimh,

    It’s amazing to me Wideman would get any consideration with Nakladal still available.

  3. Fog of Warts says:

    Staples also gave Caleb a 2, only his was a regretful “out of ten”. Well, at least we have the actual number surrounded.

    New Rule: though shalt mark “north” with an arrow on the beer-stained crib sheet, before the beer stain.

  4. supernova says:

    LT,

    Just wondering what you thought of a few Flames.

    Dube
    Kylington
    Parsons

    In their drafts I was hoping the Oilers took a chance on them.

  5. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Christoffer had a solid hit on Kylington and rang one off the crossbar.
    Quarter of an inch this way and it would have gone in.

  6. Lowetide says:

    supernova:
    LT,

    Just wondering what you thought of a few Flames.

    Dube
    Kylington
    Parsons

    In their drafts I was hoping the Oilers took a chance on them. Kylington has more chaos than you would like but is clearly skilled just may take a little time. Parsons looked solid but what I do not know about goalies is a lot.

    I liked Dube, he is clearly a good prospects. Kylington has some chaos while also being skilled, may take awhile. Parsons looked good to me, early days.

  7. Soup Fascist says:

    With Calgary’s bonus overage from last year, they have $7.9 MM to sign two more players. Until JG is locked up they can’t sign another D. Nakladal is very available. Surprised no one has added the guy.

    Sekera looks OK on the right side in the WHC. Problem is if you go

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Davidson – Sekera

    You would be left with Nurse / Fayne which was a terrible pairing from what I can remember next year.

    Nurse would appear to be going nowhere near the AHL – if the large mural welcoming me to my new seats is any indication. Either the Oil need to bring someone else in or play Davidson on his weak side with Nurse, IMO.

    BTW. If Benning ends up being a comp to “good” Andrew Ference, of 5 to 10 years ago, everyone would be happy. Benning is 20 lbs heavier than Ference played at. He would be a solid Dman if he brings the game and character AF did in his prime.

  8. Woogie63 says:

    Dressing that no name line up for a Saturday night Battle of Alberta is tone deaf for long suffering fans that want this provincial rivaly to mean some thing again. They are here with 24 skaters and 3 goalies and then they rest 5/8 skaters we want see, that …did not go down well in the arena.

  9. Lowetide says:

    Woogie63:
    Dressing that no name line up for a Saturday night Battle of Alberta is tone deaf for long suffering fans that want this provincial rivaly to mean some thing again.They are here with 24 skaters and 3 goalies and then they rest 5/8 skaters we want see, that …did not go down well in the arena.

    I can understand that, although one of the feature players (Benson) was unavailable and the big star (Puljujarvi) will likely play two of three (and then the UofA game). Saturday night didn’t include McDavid a year ago iirc, so the solution would maybe be playing first game Saturday night, then Sunday, Monday. Idea being you don’t want the guy who is going to be pushing for an NHL job playing back-to-back on the first two days of his TC.

  10. Doug McLachlan says:

    Nakladal is going back to the Flames, sadly. They are waiting for the musical chairs of Trouba, Lindholm, etc gets sorted out in the hopes they can get someone (Oilers) to take the Wideman problem off their hands. I hope Chia can do better.

    If Chia could sign Nakladal and hasn’t, I would be stunned.

  11. StixMalone says:

    A big NO to Wideman please……

  12. Water Fire says:

    Soup Fascist: BTW. If Benning ends up being a comp to “good” Andrew Ference, of 5 to 10 years ago, everyone would be happy. Benning is 20 lbs heavier than Ference played at. He would be a solid Dman if he brings the game and character AF did in his prime.

    Players hitting 6′ and 200 lbs are big enough to play a rounded game, no worries there. Same size as Sekera, meaning they don’t have an actual physical disadvantage to overcome to be good.

    I’m glad to see almost all the prospects have a chance at developing into an NHL player with luck and work, unlike many over the last ten years.

  13. Lowetide says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Nakladal is going back to the Flames, sadly.They are waiting for the musical chairs of Trouba, Lindholm, etc gets sorted out in the hopes they can get someone (Oilers) to take the Wideman problem off their hands. I hope Chia can do better.

    If Chia could sign Nakladal and hasn’t, I would be stunned.

    That is my view as well, although no proof to offer.

  14. Woogie63 says:

    Lowetide,

    On the good news front. We are sitting next to the players tunnel and Benson and Puljujarvi watched some of the game there. The both signed ALL the autograph requests and took their time with the fans.

  15. Ducey says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    TsuDhoNimh,

    It’s amazing to me Wideman would get any consideration with Nakladal still available.

    What am I missing? Wideman has a decent NHL track record of producing points. He has > 750 NHL games. Nakladal has bounced around more than Mike Keenan and turns 29 in Dec. He doesn’t seem to have any history of putting up offence.

  16. fifthcartel says:

    I’d prefer Franson over Wideman but Nakaldal seems like a pretty decent signing to make too. I’d rather have Nakladal than Fraser as an extra man.

  17. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    How about Nakladal last night? Out working Perry even in the dying moments of the game, well past the point when his own teammates had… Czech’d out. Sign the man!

    Also, I liked the grit and intensity the boys showed last night. If last night’s roster was the dregs of our prospect pool, we’re looking better than years past. Agreed about Betker skating better. Wonder if he’ll be able to make it through the Leftorium, even just to establish enough value as tradeable asset (read: Gernat and pick for Maroon).

  18. Pouzar says:

    Ducey: What am I missing? Wideman has a decent NHL track record of producing points. He has > 750 NHL games. Nakladal has bounced
    around more than Mike Keenan and turns 29 in Dec. He doesn’t seem to have any history of putting up offence.

    All fair points. I am not endorsing any of these guys but I don’t get it either.

  19. fifthcartel says:

    I also think the Oilers should prepare to claim Ryan Sproul off waivers but I feel like they’ll claim Mark McNeil or Derek Ryan instead.

  20. Lowetide says:

    fifthcartel:
    I also think the Oilers should prepare to claim Ryan Sproul off waivers but I feel like they’ll claim Mark McNeil or Derek Ryan instead.

    This is exactly how I see it. Dammit people, quit being so smart! 🙂

  21. Woogie63 says:

    Pouzar: All fair points. I am not endorsing any of these guys but I don’t get it either.

    I think it Russell that Calgary is going to sign. He is skating with “off site” guys in a Calgary arena.

  22. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Lowetide,

    You taught us everything we know.

  23. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Hunter Smith hasn’t fared well on Saturday night games vs. the Oilers wannabes. Last year he faced the wrath of Nurse, this year he came out second best in anther fight and took a wicked shot in the nuts from Benning. Eddie Belfour used to refer to stick fouls of that nature as “the Separator”.

  24. Frank the dog says:

    This is a match I could have justified losing, as LT said, but am happy to see them win.
    I’m interested to see how Tkachuk enjoys meeting Lucic, Kassian, and Nurse in particular.
    I’m sure they will give him a warm welcome. As would Maroon and Khaira, but it’s the first three I will most enjoy seeing.

  25. Ducey says:

    fifthcartel:
    I’d prefer Franson over Wideman but Nakaldal seems like a pretty decent signing to make too. I’d rather have Nakladal than Fraser as an extra man.

    Fraser is the vet leader and policeman for the AHL team. The chances of him playing an NHL game are nil.

  26. DBO says:

    Live in Calgary now. Listening to 960 sports radio down here, Francis mentioned the only thing stopping a deal for Nakaldal is he wants a one way deal cause he has a young family and needs more then $75 k in the minors. So he wants a one way deal, and Eric Francis doubts the Flames sign him so he expects him to be signed by someone else. Opens door for Oilers for sure.

  27. Lowetide says:

    The one play you could fault Jones on (the 3-3 goal) was a tangled web. The sequence is:

    1. Jones in his own zone lower left passes the puck, intercepted before the blue line (that is a mistake).
    2. Oilers collapse to the Flame and regain control.
    3. Jones exits his end under control.
    4. Immediately upon exit of his zone, sends a fine pass to No. 64 on LW.
    5. He is the third man into the offensive zone and continues to the net on what looks like a reasonable sortie with promise.
    6. Trail forward also continues to the net.
    7. No. 64 enters zone and has several options, including shooting at net, dumping it around back of the net, and the most dangerous play, trying to finesse a pass through the CGY defender.
    8 No. 64 takes another option, sending a reasonable pass to the trailing (No. 4 man into the zone) forward, who is No. 41. No. 41 misses the pass completely, and it is a jailbreak.

    I don’t blame Jones on that play, for me both No. 64 (Thomas Foster, needed to make a better decision) and No. 41 (Tomas Soustal, needed to make sure the back door was shut) were more accountable. Also important to remember the score, and none of the men on the play recognized the 3-2 score and their responsibility to the sitation.

    It is here, at 2 hours, 15 minutes

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TaynecBakII

  28. fifthcartel says:

    Ducey,

    I got a little worried when I saw his jersey in the dressing room at Rogers Place.

    Lowetide,

    It makes too much sense, so obviously the Oilers won’t do it. Big RHD who can play on the PP, played with Nurse on the Soo, cheap cap hit, and Oilers have second priority on the waiver wire.

  29. Centre of attention says:

    I would take a gamble on Wideman if that is Peters last possible option. Obviously Calgary needs to retain salary and give us a pick or prospect to make it worth our time. Right?

    He is actually better than nothing, in my opinion. Wideman could be a serviceable #6 defender especially if he had Davidson on his pair covering.

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Fayne
    Davidson-Wideman
    Oesterle

    Wideman has a bad game, you scratch him and play Oesterle. Nurse gets to dominate in the minors which is another benefit to bringing in an NHL veteran.

    *edit*
    I would also prefer Franson, as others have mentioned here.

  30. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Centre of attention,

    Agree he is better than nothing, but I’d expect salary retention and I’m concerned about the refs. Cap space provides for the ability to pounce on an opportunity later in the season with better long term implications than the value of Wideman.

    If the flames hold $2m that works. I just don’t see them paying a portion of a salary on their provincial rival. Think their fans would be upset about that.

  31. wheatnoil says:

    ******SPAM******

    I finally wrote up my look at Bakersfield forward time on ice compared to the rest of the AHL.

    I had to make a couple of adjustments to what I had posted before to account for the Andrew Miller / Zach Boychuk trade. However, the result on the graph is pretty negligible. Providence actually looks a bit better due to a similar adjustment.

    Post is here: http://www.theoilersrig.com/2016/09/oilers-play-ahl-forwards/

    *****END SPAM******

  32. J-Bo says:

    Centre of attention,

    I also agree with this. The problem is, as other posters have pointed out, there is a less the zero chance Nurse starts the season in the minors. I think the likely line-up with another RHD add is:

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Davidson-Sekera
    Nurse-Wideman/Franson
    Fayne

  33. G Money says:

    Nakladal popped up as a really solid candidate as I was scanning through results literally the day we released WoodMoney:

    Has Nakladal signed anywhere yet? If not, sure hope the Oilers are taking a serious look at him for RHD depth. #WoodMoney— Oilers Nerd Alert (@OilersNerdAlert) 18 July 2016

    And this was in Kent Wilson’s timeline yesterday: http://i.imgur.com/9AO2cTg.png but was actually posted by someone who I’ll describe only as “Oilers related” (I can’t embed his tweet directly, I assume that’s a deliberate setting).

    FWIW, the Falmes bloggers very much want him resigned.

  34. Woogie63 says:

    wheatnoil,

    I know we will disagree, here. Just to debate…

    I think your article significantly unestimates the value of practice time the AHL teams get. I have read studies that show practice time is 4x more valuable to a developing player than game time.

    The Young Stars tournament has a wide age range of players, 18 /19 years vs. 23 years, and yet, Bear, Jones, Puljujarvi, Niemelainen, Guillaume, Juolevi, Maksimovich. Kylington,Tkachuk, Parsons, Roslovic, Harkins, Blomqvist, Stanley are playing as well or better than guys that should be way ahead at this stage of their careers.

    The 28-30 year old vets on an AHL team are good hockey players but we are talking NHL 13th forward or 7 defenseman type players. The type of players a quality prospect should heap over for play time.

    I like the pro teams where you earn everything, imo that is part of a winning culture.

  35. BustedSoulO says:

    Where in the H-E-Double-Hockey-Sticks are you people watching these games! ?!?!?!
    I am so sick of the modern internet; leading me where it’s advertisers want me to go…

  36. ChiliChunk says:

    Soup Fascist: Nurse would appear to be going nowhere near the AHL – if the large mural welcoming me to my new seats is any indication. Either the Oil need to bring someone else in or play Davidson on his weak side with Nurse, IMO.

    IIRC in the photos of the new dressing room Nurse’s jersey was right next to the big boys (next to Eberle I think) in the middle cluster while Reinhart’s was in the hinterland.

  37. Bruce McCurdy says:

    ChiliChunk: IIRC in the photos of the new dressing room Nurse’s jersey was right next to the big boys (next to Eberle I think) in the middle cluster while Reinhart’s was in the hinterland.

    I noticed that too but when they panned out further the sweater on the other side of #25 was #51.

    I don’t think locker name tags were installed yet so that might have been more photo op than actual seating plan. (The alternating orange-blue-white jerseys was another clue.) Display the top few jersey sales at the focal point of the photo shoot perhaps, & Nurse is very likely one of those. The only thing that’s a given is goalies at the ends closest to the door.

  38. Bruce McCurdy says:

    PS: I loved the oval seating design, & whoever thought to put the logo on the ceiling instead of a huge no-go zone right in the middle of the floor is a freaking genius. Very player friendly room, beautifully designed.

  39. defmn says:

    Woogie63:
    wheatnoil,

    I have read studies that show practice time is 4x more valuable to a developing player than game time.

    Interesting. I have always wondered about the ‘playing time is important for young players to develop’ theory just because the European model seems to work on exactly the opposite idea of more practice and less game time.

    And yet European players seem to develop just fine.

  40. zatch says:

    Thoughts on Mikkel Aargaard last night? I’m a nut for non-big 6 hockey nations. Love how fast the Danes went from nothing to decent in very little time. I think someone could have grabbed his Polish Sudbury team mate Alan Lyszczarczyk with a 7th rounder and gotten a real prospect just adjusting to his first year in NA.

    What do people think of 7-8 game Ryder Cup style tournament, straight NA vs. Europe?

  41. OF17 says:

    BustedSoulO:
    Where in the H-E-Double-Hockey-Sticks are you people watching these games! ?!?!?!
    I am so sick of the modern internet; leading me where it’s advertisers want me to go…

    LT, if this kind of link sharing isn’t allowed, my apologies, but http://www.reddit.com/r/nhlstreams is the best place to find streams. There’s almost always an HD youtube stream up. It’s how I watched the Canada game last night, and it looked as good as HDTV on the big screen (used my Roku’s youtube app to get it there).

    For the prospects games, thankfully oilers.nhl.com is streaming those.

  42. godot10 says:

    Woogie63:
    Dressing that no name line up for a Saturday night Battle of Alberta is tone deaf for long suffering fans that want this provincial rivaly to mean some thing again.They are here with 24 skaters and 3 goalies and then they rest 5/8 skaters we want see, that …did not go down well in the arena.

    Tkachuk sticking Puljujarvi in a rookie camp game…is that something Oiler fans want to see.

    Tkachuk will be a lunatic until it is a game with real NHL players. He has no fear in a rookie camp game.

  43. Lowetide says:

    zatch:
    Thoughts on Mikkel Aargaard last night? I’m a nut for non-big 6 hockey nations. Love how fast the Danes went from nothing to decent in very little time. I think someone could have grabbed his Polish Sudbury team mate Alan Lyszczarczyk with a 7th rounder and gotten a real prospect just adjusting to his first year in NA.

    What do people think of 7-8 game Ryder Cup style tournament, straight NA vs. Europe?

    I saw him good, and even did a google search for aardvark trying to work a new nickname for my conversation tomorrow on the Lowdown with Kent Wilson.

  44. fifthcartel says:

    BustedSoulO,

    If you’re talking about the prospect games watch it via the Oilers youtube if you have a Smart TV/PS4/Xbox One/Apple TV. Search the Oilers account and it streamed pretty much perfectly on my TV here.

  45. Mustard Tiger says:

    zatch:
    Thoughts on Mikkel Aargaard last night? I’m a nut for non-big 6 hockey nations. Love how fast the Danes went from nothing to decent in very little time. I think someone could have grabbed his Polish Sudbury team mate Alan Lyszczarczyk with a 7th rounder and gotten a real prospect just adjusting to his first year in NA.

    What do people think of 7-8 game Ryder Cup style tournament, straight NA vs. Europe?

    I like this idea, but really, how many Americans would make Team Canada? Maybe Kane, Pacioretty, and Suter?

  46. Clay says:

    godot10: Tkachuk sticking Puljujarvi in a rookie camp game…is that something Oiler fans want to see.

    Tkachuk will be a lunatic until it is a game with real NHL players.He has no fear in a rookie camp game.

    Ya, Tkachuk’s schtick so far has been amusing. He’s in a position where he doesn’t need to play that way to make the team – the fLames are dying for skilled wingers – but it’s cute that he wants to make the impression. Except now he won’t be sneaking up on anyone.

  47. Mustard Tiger says:

    Anyone pegging San Jose to slip this year is out to lunch.
    They have 4 players on Team Canada (Thornton, Couture, Burns, Vlasic) as well as 40 goal scorer Pavelski. Also, Thornton looks as good as ever.

  48. Woogie63 says:

    godot10: Tkachuk sticking Puljujarvi in a rookie camp game…is that something Oiler fans want to see.

    Tkachuk will be a lunatic until it is a game with real NHL players.He has no fear in a rookie camp game.

    This the second year in a row the Edmonton ENTERTAINMENT Group, chose to dress less than their best team to play the Flames on a Saturday night.

  49. godot10 says:

    Woogie63: This the second year in a row the Edmonton ENTERTAINMENT Group, chose to dress less than their best team to play the Flames on a Saturday night.

    Rookie camp means less than eff all. It serves no useful purpose whatsoever. I would argue it is a bad idea.

  50. zatch says:

    Mustard Tiger,

    True…I’d add Schneider at least to that.

  51. Woogie63 says:

    godot10: Rookie camp means less than eff all. It serves no useful purpose whatsoever.I would argue it is a bad idea.

    Braden Christoffer says hi

  52. Mustard Tiger says:

    zatch:
    Mustard Tiger,

    True…I’d add Schneider at least to that.

    Sure, he can be third string over Crawford but I wouldn’t start him in front of Price or Holtby

  53. godot10 says:

    Woogie63: Braden Christoffer says hi

    Which proves my point.

  54. zatch says:

    Mustard Tiger,

    I’d have to double check some numbers. Goalies are voodoo, but I’ve seen some pretty convincing stuff that says while Price is good, he’s not as good as some say.

    Certainly, I’d be 100% comfortable starting Schneider today. Think the incremental difference between Holtby Price and Schneider is negligible.

  55. Woogie63 says:

    godot10: Which proves my point.

    A 20 year old young man earned $60,000 AHL salary and NHL contract worth $650,000 with a great rookie training camp…only the most jaded would say that doesn’t mean anything. That is why thousands of kids play the game.

  56. rickithebear says:

    The Dmen adds I wanted:
    1. K. miller Boston.
    top 40 EVA D
    top 20 HSCA D
    #3 evga D

    2. Trade for the great young 1st comp/ EVA/ HSCA D
    Lindholm…..
    sure did not think Larsson avaialable
    Larsson
    1st comp
    top 40 EVA
    top 10 HSCA
    #1 EVGA
    top 12 PKGA

    3. Nakladal
    3rd comp
    top 15 EVGA D
    #180 EVA D
    top 40 HSCA D
    Top 40 EVGA D

  57. wheatnoil says:

    Woogie63,

    defmn,

    I think the practice vs game question is a valid one. As another example, the CHL and AHL are fairly game heavy compared to the USHL and the NCAA.

    In the articles, I’m not making the argument about more vs less practice time. Presumably that stays the same but more minutes in games played would be better. That said, this is certainly a hypothesis. I haven’t proven that teams who give their young players more AHL minutes develop more NHL players. However, I do think Supernova did some work in that regards in a guest post series on this blog.

    As for the earning ice time part, I think it’s a matter of degree. Ice time is a reward and it’s also an opportunity to learn from mistakes. As I said in the article, I’m not suggesting they run the rooks ragged and I think having an AHL vet or two on the rostercan be valuable. I think where we disagree is on where on the spectrum we sit in regards to optimal deployment for development.

    I also suspect there’s a natural coaching bias towards playing vets. Greater track record, more likely to make the safe play. So all else being equal, the coach will likely play the vet over the young guy, even though on a purely even playing field, the young guy may have earned the minutes. That said, I have to hard evidence for that.

  58. godot10 says:

    Woogie63: A 20 year old young man earned $60,000 AHL salary and NHL contract worth $650,000 with a great rookie training camp…only the most jaded would say that doesn’t mean anything.That is why thousands of kids play the game.

    The Oilers wasted one of 50 precious NHL contracts for three years when an AHL contract would have sufficed.

    They made a horrible decision based on a sample that was not only small but an awful sample.

  59. Woogie63 says:

    godot10: The Oilers wasted one of 50 precious NHL contracts for three years when an AHL contract would have sufficed.

    They made a horrible decision based on a sample that was not only small but an awful sample.

    We are talking about 2% of the potential contracts, right? “Horrible decision” seems over the top verses the larger picture.

    JMO

  60. rickithebear says:

    HDCA 75% of goals.
    6/ 13.5 X .75 = 33.3 % variance in total goals.

    LSCA shots 25% of goals 8.% of Shots
    8/23.5 X .25 = 3.8 % variance in total goals.

    Taking emotion and opinion out of it:
    Canadian starting goalies HSCA save% performance last 3 years
    min 1300 HSC Shot attempts.
    #1 Price .889
    ———————- Tier 1
    #2 Talbot .886
    #4 Holtby .885
    ——————— tier 2
    #6 Jones .881
    #7 Elliott, Allen .880
    #9 Crawford .878
    #10 Bernier .874
    #13 Fluery .871
    #22 Mason; Scrivens .861
    #24 Riemer .860
    #25 Dubnyk .859
    #29 Luongo .857

    Canadian Matt Murray had the 2nd best HSCA save% start to a career!

  61. BustedSoulO says:

    OF17,

    Thanx All!!

  62. rickithebear says:

    CHL is child labour with zero concern of player career interest.

    EX. Pjunior players who have proven zero increased development continuing to play in CHL.
    Better served playing in the AHL.

  63. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Clay: Ya, Tkachuk’s schtick so far has been amusing.He’s in a position where he doesn’t need to play that way to make the team – the fLames are dying for skilled wingers – but it’s cute that he wants to make the impression.Except now he won’t be sneaking up on anyone.

    The acorn don’t fall too far from the tree.

  64. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woogie63: We are talking about 2% of the potential contracts, right?“Horrible decision” seems over the top verses the larger picture.

    JMO

    They were looking ahead, trying to identify an appropriate replacement on the 50-man for Kale Kessy.

  65. МАГИЯ 10 says:

    Lowetide: I saw him good, and even did a google search for aardvark trying to work a new nickname for my conversation tomorrow on the Lowdown with Kent Wilson.

    Arthur!

  66. SwedishPoster says:

    One of the swedish experts were in his suit and wearing the goalie blocker and glove to show Markströms style of play, damn the goalie gear looks massive when you see them worn seperately. The new smaller gear can’t come quickly enough.

  67. G Money says:

    Woogie63: We are talking about 2% of the potential contracts, right? “Horrible decision” seems over the top verses the larger picture.

    JMO

    Yikes. That is a terrible way to put it.

    In fact, 23 spots of that 50 man roster are taken up by your NHL team.

    Another 5 minimum should be taken by NHL depth – that is, players you expect to call up to the NHL for injury.

    You’d hope *at least* another 10 to be taken up by genuine prospects, young players with good enough track records that you expect them to be NHL regulars in the long run.

    That leaves you with something in the order of ~12 spots for other purposes like long-term development – and at least a few of those will be taken up by those AHL vets who keep soaking up too much development time that we are talking about.

    So you have about 10 spots at most for players who might be charitably considered long term development projects.

    Signing Christoffer to that contract burns 10% of those spots on a player for a full three years. And it was done on the basis of a small sample artificial situation like the Young Stars game, while ignoring a much longer track record suggesting he has no realistic shot at making the NHL.

    (in comparable aged years, Christoffer scored considerably fewer points than Darnell Nurse – yet Christoffer is a forward, and we’re worried about Nurse’s NHL offense as a defenseman)

    That’s what makes it a horrible decision.

  68. Chachi says:

    Bruce McCurdy: They were looking ahead, trying to identify an appropriate replacement on the 50-man for Kale Kessy.

    Ha!

  69. Pouzar says:

    defmn: Interesting. I have always wondered about the ‘playing time is important for young players to develop’ theory just because the European model seems to work on exactly the opposite idea of more practice and less game time.

    And yet European players seem to develop just fine.

    Yes. Yes they do. Right Joanie?

  70. speeds says:

    G Money,

    Do you think it’s a worse decision than signing Fraser to a contract that uses up a contract spot?

  71. Chachi says:

    Woogie63: This the second year in a row the Edmonton ENTERTAINMENT Group, chose to dress less than their best team to play the Flames on a Saturday night.

    If you have a beef here it should be with the Flames who consistently dress a line up chalk full of no-hopers who just happen to be 6’5″ plus and 220 pounds or more whose only discernible talent seems to be that they are huge. I wouldn’t risk playing my best prospects out there with giants who have no chance of even making a real exhibition game line-up.

  72. Chachi says:

    defmn: Interesting. I have always wondered about the ‘playing time is important for young players to develop’ theory just because the European model seems to work on exactly the opposite idea of more practice and less game time.

    And yet European players seem to develop just fine.

    And yet more European players seem to be coming to North America all the time to play in the CHL, USHL, NCAA and yes, the AHL. Maybe for those players they would rather play in North America and get more playing time in games rather than getting the 8-10 minutes a night they might get in their domestic pro leagues. Maybe development should be looked at from an individual player perspective rather than forcing players into a certain development track based on their place of birth. Does that seem reasonable?

  73. Woogie63 says:

    G Money: Yikes.That is a terrible way to put it.

    In fact, 23 spots of that 50 man roster are taken up by your NHL team.

    Another 5 minimum should be taken by NHL depth – that is, players you expect to call up to the NHL for injury.

    You’d hope *at least* another 10 to be taken up by genuine prospects, young players with good enough track records that you expect them to be NHL regulars in the long run.

    That leaves you with something in the order of ~12 spots for other purposes like long-term development – and at least a few of those will be taken up by those AHL vets who keep soaking up too much development time that we are talking about.

    So you have about 10 spots at most for players who might be charitably considered long term development projects.

    Signing Christoffer to that contract burns 10% of those spots on a player for a full three years.And it was done on the basis of a small sample artificial situation like the Young Stars game, while ignoring a much longer track record suggesting he has no realistic shot at making the NHL.

    (in comparable aged years, Christoffer scored considerably fewer points than Darnell Nurse – yet Christoffer is a forward, and we’re worried about Nurse’s NHL offense as a defenseman)

    That’s what makes it a horrible decision.

    I think the league average is 45 NHL contracts. So you could argue those last 5 slots are house money

  74. Woogie63 says:

    Chachi: If you have a beef here it should be with the Flames who consistently dress a line up chalk full of no-hopers who just happen to be 6’5″ plus and 220 pounds or more whose only discernible talent seems to be that they are huge. I wouldn’t risk playing my best prospects out there with giants who have no chance of even making a real exhibition game line-up.

    Flames dressed Kanzig and Hunter along with most of there top end talent. Specifically which big meanies are you talking about?

  75. G Money says:

    speeds,
    Fraser is a terrible decision IMO no matter how many roster spots you have

  76. OF17 says:

    Woogie63: I think the league average is 45 NHL contracts.So you could argue those last 5 slots are house money

    Those last 5 slots are flexibility for waiver claims, deadline additions, other trades. You need to keep at least a few slots open otherwise you’ve hamstrung your ability to improve.

  77. G Money says:

    Woogie63,

    Just like thinking of a roster spot as ‘just 2%’, thinking of any of a limited number of roster spots as ‘house money’ and so wasting it on low probability scrubs is a certain path to long term underperformance.

    Same thing with draft spots – wasting draft spots on guys whose ceiling is ‘fourth liner’ is crazy.

    If you’re going to swing wildly, swing for home runs, not for bunts*.

    *not a good metaphor I realize, but I’ve set one of you up for a ‘silly bunt’ comment.

  78. Spengler says:

    wheatnoil,

    To really determine which system(s) and/or team(s) develop prospects best it seems to me we would need to compare expected results to actual results for all drafted players. Our host has written some articles on this, comparing the success rate of draft picks from each round for the Oilers to their expected games played (e.g. 2nd round picks have a 30% chance of playing 100 games etc. My apologies if I’ve got the numbers or details wrong, I’m running off memory rather than research here).

    But it could be taken a step further and NHLE used to determine the “success” of those prespects who do make it (though I’d tend to agree with G Money and the posters from Friday morning that a confidence interval should be used rather than an absolute total).

    So if team A has a greater percentage of their prospects reaching the (50/100/200) GP threshold and those prospects reach their expected confidence intervals for points they could be said to be above average at development vs a team whose prospects don’t.

    Of course there are a lot of other variables that could be factored in (do we use a consensus pre-draft ranking instead of draft position to account for those teams who go walkabout? How many years post draft do we consider a prospect done? Do we disconsider players who suffer career ending injuries post draft? Etc).

  79. Woogie63 says:

    G Money:
    Woogie63,

    Just like thinking of a roster spot as ‘just 2%’, thinking of any of a limited number of roster spots as ‘house money’ and so wasting it on low probability scrubs is a certain path to long term underperformance.

    Same thing with draft spots – wasting draft spots on guys whose ceiling is ‘fourth liner’ is crazy.

    If you’re going to swing wildly, swing for home runs, not for bunts*.

    *not a good metaphor I realize, but I’ve set one of you up for a ‘silly bunt’ comment.

    I am not abdicating wasting, I am trying to acknowledge that give a 50 player roster that frankly no GM fully utlizes. There is room for a team to take a gamble on a player without destroying his team.

  80. Chachi says:

    Woogie63: Flames dressed Kanzig and Hunter along with most of there top end talent.Specifically which big meanies are you talking about?

    Falkovsky is listed at 6’7″ and 224 pounds. I didn’t say these guys were necessarily “meanies” but big guys with no talent sometimes try to stand out by hurting people. Kanzig for example, has no hope of making the modern day NHL, but he was out there for the Flames for some purpose. He’s not out there to play hockey. I see no need for the Oilers to put out their best prospects to get run by the likes of him.

  81. Ryan says:

    speeds:
    G Money,

    Do you think it’s a worse decision than signing Fraser to a contract that uses up a contract spot?

    Sure, that’s a no-brainier.

    While both are wasted contracts, at least Fraser’s is only one year.

    Also, Fraser may be a sub replacement level bottom-pairing NHL dman that’s still a vastly higher ceiling than Christoffer will ever have.

    Also, Fraser has a decent chance of getting in some games in the event of injury next season.

  82. square_wheels says:

    G Money,

    My fingers are prying both sides of my mouth as I say it !

    Lordy that Swedish D is going to be awful to play against, even without our Dreamy. I like that D more than either Canadian team.

    Markstrom was decent.

  83. digger50 says:

    godot10: Rookie camp means less than eff all. It serves no useful purpose whatsoever.I would argue it is a bad idea.

    It may not mean a lot to some fans but that is only from the perspective of the big club. To many players and their families it’s a big deal. Particularly the “no names”. Player development, expectations, communication, networking. Increased awareness and fan base all kinds of good things. As they are charging for tickets they should be responsible in providing quality entertainment.

    It’s really just that balance of entertainment versus exposing high talent players to unnecessary risk. Really unavoidable though. Limit your top guys here and then put them camp there will still be others who have a go at them. Put them in AHL and guaranteed they will get run at some point.

    Anyway I like the tournament, it builds unity and identity. Allows understanding and assessment of where these players are at. For some they could take a look around, see realistically what the future may hold and make a decision to play in Europe.

    I think the Oil get value out of it. It only makes sense they want to look more at players they are still evaluating over those that have clear , or at least clearer, paths established.

  84. square_wheels says:

    On the topic of silly bunts, thought I’d share a story….

    So I’ve been hunting, hard since August 25th, in the Burnt Timber area near the trunk road (hwy 40). On our way to the tree stands we notice a popular camp spot along the river with something out of place….a food truck. After much debate about why a food truck would appear this far into the back country, we carried on, white-tails could care less why we’re late but they sure as hell wouldn’t mind the scent alert. After another unsuccessful night shooting pointy sticks at ungulates, we’re heading back to camp when our food truck questions are answered. To our 40 yr old and fully camouflaged shock (imagine Beavis and Butthead when they think they’re about to SCORE faces) there is a giant EDM festival taking place.

    Our ah-ha moment was the appearance of small neon signs that we mistook for Spray Lakes logging coded directions, was in fact directions for the 500 Thai pants 20somethings going hard in the dark.

    We stopped for a few minutes, we were camouflaged so our ability to bypass the security in a Chris Farley-esqe American Ninja manner went undetected. There was 2 stages, fire acrobat thingy’s, lots of what appeared to be Furries dressed up. A couple more Beavis and Butthead looks at each other and we decided supper was best served back at camp.

    I’ve spent a significant amount of time in the back country, but stumbling onto the Enter Sandman Festival will likely go down as one of the oddest occurrences in my life.

    As I was cooking dinner under the full moon, drinking Dalmore 12 out of a coffee mug I concluded that as long as kids are enjoying the back country and leaving it as they found it…..do as you please.

    Sadly, on our way home we passed several Mounties coming in hot….suspect the loggers, gas company or the bozo’s ripping the back country to shit with their ATV’s must have thought otherwise.

    The shit you see in the bush……

  85. defmn says:

    Chachi: And yet more European players seem to be coming to North America all the time to play in the CHL, USHL, NCAA and yes, the AHL. Maybe for those players they would rather play in North America and get more playing time in games rather than getting the 8-10 minutes a night they might get in their domestic pro leagues. Maybe development should be looked at from an individual player perspective rather than forcing players into a certain development track based on their place of birth. Does that seem reasonable?

    That does seem reasonable and I should make it clear that I don’t think I know the answer to this question. Just that I think it is an interesting question.

    As to more guys leaving Europe for the CHL etc. I think that has at least as much to do with the idea that the additional exposure enhances their chances on draft day and that learning the N.A. game might accelerate their entry into the big money.

  86. Oilspill says:

    square_wheels:
    G Money,

    My fingers are prying both sides of my mouth as I say it !

    Lordy that Swedish D is going to be awful to play against, even without our Dreamy. I like that D more than either Canadian team.

    Markstrom was decent.

    Attack Karlsson side. He really is a pylon defensively.

  87. square_wheels says:

    Oilspill,

    Dont disagree but he will be eating up those ozone starts and PP.

    If it’s a SWE vs CAN final I will be pacing for 60 mins, not a team I won’t to play, even if it’s against our backup. Lundquist sounds pretty ill, if it’s like this flu going through our friends/family it’s a couple weeks recovery.

  88. leadfarmer says:

    I may be the only one but this young stars tournament is really for the guys without contracts, long shot prospects and oversized neanderthals. If I was GM I wouldnt even care to put guys like Puljujarvi out there that will be fighting for NHL employment this season, because I wouldnt care less what he did in 2 exhibition games against that level of competition, I want to see what he can do against regulars. I really would want to get a look at the invites and some of the long shots to see if I cant find a diamond in the rough. But I guess I’m not spending money on a game ticket

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