CULLING THE HERD

by Lowetide

There are several players at this year’s training camp who may not return a year from now, and the free agents (RFA and UFA) who will be sent away are going to give Peter Chiarelli a lot of leeway in the expansion summer. How many players are spending their final seasons on Edmonton’s 50-man roster? Let’s have a look.

  1. Nail Yakupov, RFA summer 2017. Nail has a window of opportunity here, but every day Jesse Puljujarvi spends on the roster in a feature role gets the Russian winger closer to the exit door. A major season ahead, I think this could end in any number of ways. If I had to bet? Another season in Edmonton with middling results. Summer 2017 is probably exit.
  2. Matt Hendricks, UFA summer 2017. Buffalo soldier has enjoyed a productive career but one suspects he is nearly the end of the line. He is a fine PK man and a veteran, could be dealt at the deadline.
  3. Anton Lander, RFA summer 2017. Just like most every season since arriving from Sweden, he enters training camp with question marks and will have to prove himself. Suspect Chiarelli finds another answer for his roster spot and Lander is probably in his final year with the team.
  4. Jonas Gustavsson, UFA summer 2017. I think the Oilers plan on having Laurent Brossoit as Cam Talbot’s backup by this time next season, so Gustavsson is almost surely in his final (and only) Oilers season. A surprising performance may change the narrative.
  5. Eetu Laurikainen, RFA summer 2017. Edmonton has Cam Talbot, Jonas Gustavsson, Laurent Brossoit and possibly Nick Ellis ahead of him. If Ellis wins the backup job in Bakersfield—possible—Laurikainen may end up back in Finland for his final entry-level season.
  6. Bogdan Yakimov, RFA summer. My guess is player and team have a difference of opinion over the value of making $70,000 in Bakersfield this winter. This rarely ends in anything other than a divorce, suspect we see Yak 2.0 dealt in a deal for Wideman or similar.
  7. Andrew Ference, UFA summer 2017. I think he had a terrific career, wish him well and thank him for the 2011 Stanley in Boston (enjoyable experience).
  8. Mark Fraser, UFA summer 2017. This is an area where I might get some pushback, but Fraser’s skills are duplicated across the NHL roster and there are 12 LHD in the minors. A very curious signing, Oilers may not regret it but I do question it.
  9. Tyler Pitlick, RFA summer 2017. For both player and organization, one hopes we see NHL success for this player during 2016-17. A series of injuries have plagued his pro career to the point I thought he might want to try another team this year. Hope it works out well, he deserves good fortune.
  10. Mitchell Moroz, RFA summer 2017. A strong third season is necessary for Moroz to be able to make a case for a second pro contract. In fairness to him, I don’t think he has received a lot of opportunity—but you can also make the case that he did not force the issue with strong play.
  11. Taylor Beck, RFA summer 2017. Kind of a wild card, I like his resume but it is difficult to see a fit on the NHL roster. If he can make himself useful in a utility role, the Lander job may work for him.
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Oilspill

Fayne IS our most limited D and it hurts!

Water Fire:
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prairieschooner

Seems like an awful lot of thiings to consider lots of far reaching implications
The big shot on the PP. would be nice for some easy goals
I like the idea of Sekera and a prospect D man plus a pick but that does not help Wpg cap situ
We all love Davidson and he may be the $$ key to making a deal
How about Davidson and our next 2 Firsts.?

Woodguy

frjohnk:
Trouba’s only reason he wants out of Winnipeg is because they wont play him on the right side?

I was born at night, but not last night!

He had all summer, and thats the best “reason” why he wants out?

Well, the agent can’t say “we want $6MM/yr and the Jets offered a bridge at $3.5 so we told them to take a flying fuck at a rolling donut” now can he?

With the number of good young Dmen who signed long term for $4MM-$4.5MM after their ELCs there is no way a team should bit on $6MM for Trouba imo.

Cassandra

flyfish1168:
Hi WG

how does Rasmus Ristolainen compare to Trouba. By eye last year I sawRistolainen very good. I believeRistolainen would not be part of the expansion draft since he was a 2013 draft like Nurse. Both without a contract.

Ristolainen was Nurse-like (i.e. bad) last year. He has more history of offense so he has more upside than Nurse, but he also has a huge reputation such that he would cost more than Trouba. Trading for him is the kind of bad idea Will Fraser likes to think is smart.

Plus, haven’t you heard that the expansion draft is irrelevant in evaluating trades.

Woodguy

flyfish1168:
Hi WG

how does Rasmus Ristolainen compare to Trouba. By eye last year I sawRistolainen very good. I believeRistolainen would not be part of the expansion draft since he was a 2013 draft like Nurse. Both without a contract.

Tough to compare them.

Risto plays 1st pairing on a poor team with a poor partner and his results reflect that.

Risto has to be protected given his years of pro play.

Last year was his 2nd pro year and only Nurse’s 1st.

That’s the difference.

Risto is the best Dman on BUF, I see no reason for them to trade him.

Trouba on the other hand is probably pretty available.

frjohnk

Trouba’s only reason he wants out of Winnipeg is because they wont play him on the right side?

I was born at night, but not last night!

He had all summer, and thats the best “reason” he could come up with why he wants out?

Ice Sage

It’s Trouba-mania!

Nice situation for the Jets – trade a 3rd pairing RHD as if he’s a 1st pairing. The auction should be hot and, given what Larsson cost, I can’t see the Oilers lasting long. Any deal may get done in-season?

flyfish1168

if Nurse is to be traded for a RHD I prefer Rasmus Ristolainen. Not sure what the analytic people feel here
Here is a video of Lucic versus Rasmus Ristolainen

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZuuJsjimbQ

flyfish1168

Hi WG

how does Rasmus Ristolainen compare to Trouba. By eye last year I saw Ristolainen very good. I believe Ristolainen would not be part of the expansion draft since he was a 2013 draft like Nurse. Both without a contract.

Woodguy

Numenius: I don’t see how Chevy will listen to anything less than Klef. That’s where the discussion has to start imo in exchange for someone who’s arguably already a top pair dman, which Nurse isn’t (at least yet).

I think I’d be willing to do it, but that’s only because I think our dreamy Klef is prone to injury. For a non-injury prone dreamy Klef I wouldn’t.

Trouba is not a top pairing Dman yet.

TOI % vs Elite Forwards last year:

Buff 39%
Myers 37%
Trouba 33%

I know that Trouba had some TOI w/ both Buff and Myers and that muddys things a bit, but it still speaks to deployment.

Woodguy

rickithebear:
Woodguy: if 93.8% of the top 300 scorers even goals are from forwards.
What influence do d have on the high scoring CF?

Do not conflate CF% with scoring.

Players who drive CF% drive the puck from the Dzone to the Ozone.

Once the puck is in the ozone, then scoring ability is the driver of goals.

Dmen don’t drive goals much, but they can (and do) drive CF% which creates opportunity for goals.

Woodguy

Ice Sage: while we’re blue-lining?

ZING!

Woodguy

Centre of attention: I wonder if the Jets will let teams talk contract in order to help increase the return.

If I was a team and I was able to talk with Troubas agent about a contract, I would feel a hell of a lot more confident loading up a trade package.

He’s not under contract to the Jets.

Anyone can talk to him at any time.

He’s a free agent, he’s just a restricted free agent

wheatnoil

Bank Shot: If you watched the interviews from camp today you will see Matty asking questions about whether Darnell would be limited at the NHL level and Mclellan shooting him down, and describing Nurse as a potential five tool defenceman.

Matty was definitely trying to get Mclellan or Nurse to say that Nurse was overwhelmed last season.
They didn’t bite.

I think Matty is just writing an opinion piece here.

Could be. Or he’s getting that opinion from someone in management that isn’t McLellan.

Bank Shot

wheatnoil: Matty seems pretty hooked in these days with his articles, more so than in the past.

This article is setting up Nurse being on the 3rd pairing with a hint that Bakersfield is possible. We knew the Oilers brass was quite high on him but even they know he struggled last year. I was partially worried that they thought his last year was great, he turned out exactly as they expected and they could slot him back in the Top 4.

Also interesting that there’s some ground work laid to lower Nurse’s upside from a top pairing stud D to a top 4 with PK ability. The latter, I think, is where I see Nurse’s potential ceiling at this point. That’s a shift, though, off of management’s previous verbal of him being a sure top pairing guy.

There’s a legitimate chance I’m reading that article and parsing it to fit into my own preconceived perspective. However, it seems to me that it’s an article that still sells Nurse high but is laying the groundwork to lower expectation for him slightly. That’s mostly based on my suspicion that management views Darnell as the third most untouchable piece behind Connor and Drai.

If you watched the interviews from camp today you will see Matty asking questions about whether Darnell would be limited at the NHL level and Mclellan shooting him down, and describing Nurse as a potential five tool defenceman.

Matty was definitely trying to get Mclellan or Nurse to say that Nurse was overwhelmed last season.
They didn’t bite.

I think Matty is just writing an opinion piece here.

wheatnoil

Gerta Rauss:
http://www.torontosun.com/2016/09/24/edmonton-oilers-will-be-chewing-over-where-darnell-nurse-will-fit-on-blueline

Matty’s latest on Nurse

Matty seems pretty hooked in these days with his articles, more so than in the past.

This article is setting up Nurse being on the 3rd pairing with a hint that Bakersfield is possible. We knew the Oilers brass was quite high on him but even they know he struggled last year. I was partially worried that they thought his last year was great, he turned out exactly as they expected and they could slot him back in the Top 4.

Also interesting that there’s some ground work laid to lower Nurse’s upside from a top pairing stud D to a top 4 with PK ability. The latter, I think, is where I see Nurse’s potential ceiling at this point. That’s a shift, though, off of management’s previous verbal of him being a sure top pairing guy.

There’s a legitimate chance I’m reading that article and parsing it to fit into my own preconceived perspective. However, it seems to me that it’s an article that still sells Nurse high but is laying the groundwork to lower expectation for him slightly. That’s mostly based on my suspicion that management views Darnell as the third most untouchable piece behind Connor and Drai.

Younger Oil

This is probably ridiculous, but how about:

Ebs and a pick for Trouba

Then run:

Lucic-McDavid-Yakupov
Pouliot-Nuge-Versteeg
Maroon-Drai-Puljujarvi
Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian

Klefbom-Larsson
Sekera-Trouba
Davidson-Fayne

Then protect 5D (5 above minus Fayne), then Drai, Nuge, Lucic up front.

Pros:

-Clears up a bit of contract space for the upcoming RFAs.
-Holy mother of God is that D corps ever good.
-Yak had similar results as Eberle with McDavid.
-Puljujarvi is the #1RW of the future anyways, might as well get value for Ebs now.
-Not giving up Nurse, who is expansion protected. Lets him start in the AHL too.
-If Trouba is signed for term our top 4 D is sorted for the next 5 years, for under $20M.

Cons:

-The RW depth was sketchy at best even before the trade, creates a big potential hole in the lineup if anyone falters.
-Trouba may demand a $6M contract as opposed to one similar to Klef/Larsson.
-???

Ice Sage

Woodguy: There’s blue skying and then there is blue skying.

while we’re blue-lining?

Cassandra

oilersfan:
Richard, if you offer nurse up you will loseDavison in the expansion draft.

And? People keep saying this as if it were relevant. But it clearly isn’t because you don’t lose Davidson, you lose the delta between Davidson and the next guy on the list. In comparison to the differential in value of an average trade this is a vanishingly small consideration.

And that’s if it is even true that you would lose Davidson. The expansion team might take someone else. And none of it matters because the expansion draft is a zero-sum proposition.

The one exception to this is the teams that lose goalies. Those teams are massive winners, because losing your backup goalie is losing nothing.

The exception to this is if you have a goal with a no movement clause who is not your best goalie. Then you fucked yourself.

Cassandra

Nurse has by far the most value around the league of the players mentioned.

Nurse is also the worst player by far of the players mentioned.

The expansion draft is irrelevant in any trade discussion. You lose one player no matter what. Therefore trading Nurse does not cost you Davidson. If Davidson is selected it means some other, basically as good player, is not selected.

Therefore all trade proposals for Trouba should include Nurse. It’s a no brainer.

I would be very surprised if the Jets receive a trade package worth more than Nurse + first round pick + filler prospect for Trouba, and that’s a no doubt, must do trade, for the Oilers.

If they do that trade, they have to win in the next two years. The Lucic contract is an absolute killer.

oilersfan

Richard, if you offer nurse up you will lose Davison in the expansion draft.

Richard S.S.

Lowetide: If you don’t plan to compelt, why bother?

People often misinterpret what I say. Perhaps I should say it simpler.
1) Peter Chiarelli will be competing with many other GMs. At least those who are interested in Trouba.
2) It will be expensive, despite the word of wanting a trade get out. There will be many offers made.
3) Being unwilling to meet the price should no longer be an option. If this person is of value to your Team, make your best offer. If his counter offer is extreme, decide then on going futher.

At no time do I suggest that Chiarelli should not make an offer. I think he should.

I expect the 2017 1st to be a neccessary addition to an offer. I expect Brandon Davidson as an NHL-caliber LHD to be a necessary addition to an offer. I would offer a choice of Darnell Nurse or Griffen Reinhart as a necessary addition to an offer. I just don’t think this might be enough. And I don’t know what Peter Chiarelli could add.

Numenius

striatic: McLellan in his latest interview referred to Klef not as healthy, but as “healthier”, which is worrying.

Interesting. Might be nothing, but maybe not.

ed

The Jets have a number of younger Cs that could also go back to the Oilers. Burmistrov, Lowry, Copp, Petan are all competing for the 4c job. Petan is famous but Copp looked good when he didn’t have to play with pluggers.

Oiln5

Big Dan: Klefbom and Reinhart for Trouba and something (3rd rounder?), I would do.It’s a fair price.

You might be higher than I am. Klef or Nuge is far too much for Trouba(especially after asking to be dealt). Though I agree with Woodguy.. Trouba is exactly what this team needs, to fill out what could be an extremely strong D corp. Maybe Chia goes next level and sells our 1st rounder for top 10 value before the season begins.

jm363561

I do not normally get involved in speculative trade proposals but Trouba really would be the final piece in the jigsaw.

Winnipeg need LD but will not take KBom because of his injury history.
Sekera will not waive his NMC
I like both Davidson and Nurse but one of them has to go.
Trouba is better than both as of today, and is RD, so adding Fayne, Yak, Reinhart, will not do it.
Davidson or Nurse + next year’s first (or RNH) might do it.

Chia is in full on, win now mode. I think he might go for it if salary demand is reasonable.

ashley

Big Dan:
Pescador,

Chiarelli was shopping Nuge around all summer for a top D, and nobody bit (except Fletcher for shite like Dumba).

Nuge had a great World Cup so his value is high.I don’t think Chiarelli has any plans to deal budding power forward Draisaitl.That’s what Montreal wanted and Chiarelli balked – he wouldn’t even entertain the option.

I don’t believe either of these are true. I have a reliable source who indicated that many teams were asking about Nuge in the summer (assuming he was available because Chia was shopping Hall), and Chia said no to them all. RNH wasn’t on the table then, and I’m certain he’s still not available now.

From an earlier Friedman article, the MTL-EDM talks were never close. This was mostly due to Subban’s contract which was thought to be too unwieldy to manage in the near future with all the talented players needing contracts in the coming years. That is what Chia balked at.

striatic

Numenius: I think I’d be willing to do it, but that’s only because I think our dreamy Klef is prone to injury. For a non-injury prone dreamy Klef I wouldn’t.

McLellan in his latest interview referred to Klef not as healthy, but as “healthier”, which is worrying.

rickithebear

Woodguy: if 93.8% of the top 300 scorers even goals are from forwards.
What influence do d have on the high scoring CF?

Big Dan

Numenius: I don’t see how Chevy will listen to anything less than Klef. That’s where the discussion has to start imo in exchange for someone who’s arguably already a top pair dman, which Nurse isn’t (at least yet).

I think I’d be willing to do it, but that’s only because I think our dreamy Klef is prone to injury. For a non-injury prone dreamy Klef I wouldn’t.

Klefbom and Reinhart for Trouba and something (3rd rounder?), I would do. It’s a fair price.

Big Dan

Pescador,

Chiarelli was shopping Nuge around all summer for a top D, and nobody bit (except Fletcher for shite like Dumba).

Nuge had a great World Cup so his value is high. I don’t think Chiarelli has any plans to deal budding power forward Draisaitl. That’s what Montreal wanted and Chiarelli balked – he wouldn’t even entertain the option.

I’m not endorsing it but if Richards and Letestu were each playing the 12 tough minutes (maybe McNeill gets acquired for Musil as added C depth)… and McDavid and Draisaitl eat the other 18 minutes – I can see where Chiarelli is going. He has some experienced wingers like Lucic, Pouliot, Maroon, and Versteeg to lead and shelter them a bit. I’d say Eberle but he’s a glorified goal suck; I’m not a big fan.

I would prefer the Fowler/Reinhart/+ scenario but I wouldn’t be broken up over a Nuge for Trouba deal. It’s quality for quality. It leaves a hole at C if Draisaitl doesn’t emerge (but damn does he look good at the World Cup!). But it solves a 10-year crater we’ve had since Pronger left and would completely change the complexion of the team. Suddenly, we have SIX puck moving defensemen in Klefbom/ Sekera/ Davidson/ Nurse/ Trouba/ Larsson. We’ve been so used to struggling to get out of our zone, we won’t know what hit us.

They would have to find a home for Fayne though somehow. Maybe package him with Yakupov to a cap strapped team like Columbus for Hartnell and a pick?

Reinhart loves Edmonton but with the leftorium, he is probably hoping for a trade. He’s going to be stuck in the minors for at least 1/2 the year despite his strong stretch run last season.

rickithebear

Say it aint.

Bob Mac’s scouts he polls said “Davidson would start in any playoff teams top 4.”

wheatnoil

If Sekera would waive his NMC, would Sekera + 2017 1st work? Would WIN be interested? I’d do it if I were them.

It would mean the Oilers don’t pick until the 3rd round next year, though. Given the trades last year, it could have ramifications in McDavid’s second contract with a dry prospect cupboard, especially at forward.

Numenius

Klima’s_Bucket:
Woodguy,

You’ve got me convinced Trouba is a solid bet.
What would you be willing to part with to land the guy?

I don’t see how Chevy will listen to anything less than Klef. That’s where the discussion has to start imo in exchange for someone who’s arguably already a top pair dman, which Nurse isn’t (at least yet).

I think I’d be willing to do it, but that’s only because I think our dreamy Klef is prone to injury. For a non-injury prone dreamy Klef I wouldn’t.

Pescador

Every blog in Canada this evening:
Shite+Unwanted Crap+Picks
for Trouba
No offence LT?

Woogie63

Two ways to look at our LHD…

We have lots of potential ?

Or

We have lots of potential ?

JimmyV1965

oilersfan:
The problem with trading Nurse is he is not eligible for the expansion draft so if we trade him we likely expose and lose Davidson too.

Totally agree with this. I would actually pass on Trouba. I’ve only seen him play a handful of times, but he’s never impressed me. He looked blah at the World Cup.

Pescador

Big Dan:
I really want Trouba!

Don’t be surprised to see Nuge go for Trouba, and then Mike Richards sign a contract to log the tough minutes.

I think that scenario mentioned of the Oil 1st for Fowler and then Fowler + Reinhart for Trouba (if Fowler signs with Wpg) being a win-win.The Oilers can always sweeten the pot over the competition with a guy like Paigin – Chiarelli SHOULD win this sweepstake.

I heard that Cheveldayoff asked for Klefbom AND Nurse, and Chiarelli took his ball and left.Chevy needs to enter the world of reality.But he may be like Yzerman and just like Trouba rot.Chevy does not rush into trades and he does not compromise.

Nurse is not going anywhere.Don’t even waste time considering it.He is a big part of the Oilers’ future.

Trouba will get $5.5M just like a Dougie Hamilton and Tyson Barrie.And be totally worth it.He is 100% exactly the missing piece.He gets added – the Oilers make the playoffs.

Nuge? Good Lord, I sure as hell hope not.
The question is; would Chiarelli offer Drai?
Would you?

TSG would not

theWaxCollector

The Oilers will only be able to protect 4 Defenceman and Nurse. So when I look at it like that, yes I trade Davidson for Trouba

tsg

I’m in agreement with any LHD other than Klefbom with other secondary pieces being traded for Trouba.

I would not trade one of the centers for him.

Centre of attention

Woodguy: If they want a LHD anything besides Klefbom and I’d add picks etc.

If they want a C, I’m not sure.

He’d have to sign for 5.5MM or less though.

I wonder if the Jets will let teams talk contract in order to help increase the return.

If I was a team and I was able to talk with Troubas agent about a contract, I would feel a hell of a lot more confident loading up a trade package.

Woodguy

Klima’s_Bucket:
Woodguy,

You’ve got me convinced Trouba is a solid bet.
What would you be willing to part with to land the guy?

If they want a LHD anything besides Klefbom and I’d add picks etc.

If they want a C, I’m not sure.

He’d have to sign for 5.5MM or less though.

Big Dan

I really want Trouba!

Don’t be surprised to see Nuge go for Trouba, and then Mike Richards sign a contract to log the tough minutes.

I think that scenario mentioned of the Oil 1st for Fowler and then Fowler + Reinhart for Trouba (if Fowler signs with Wpg) being a win-win. The Oilers can always sweeten the pot over the competition with a guy like Paigin – Chiarelli SHOULD win this sweepstake.

I heard that Cheveldayoff asked for Klefbom AND Nurse, and Chiarelli took his ball and left. Chevy needs to enter the world of reality. But he may be like Yzerman and just like Trouba rot. Chevy does not rush into trades and he does not compromise.

Nurse is not going anywhere. Don’t even waste time considering it. He is a big part of the Oilers’ future.

Trouba will get $5.5M just like a Dougie Hamilton and Tyson Barrie. And be totally worth it. He is 100% exactly the missing piece. He gets added – the Oilers make the playoffs.

JimmyV1965

Centre of attention:
*lights candles*

Please please please please please…..

I wouldn’t trade Davidson straight across for Trouba. I think he’s better today and will make a fraction in salary.

Klima's_Bucket

Woodguy,

You’ve got me convinced Trouba is a solid bet.
What would you be willing to part with to land the guy?

Lloyd B.

Thanks WG for the WoodMoneys. Trouba looks like the real deal. Can understand why he doesn’t want to be third fiddle.

I think the Oilers could do Nurse and the 1st next year for him. Yes it’s a massive overpay but I’m sure that trade gets us the balance photo. Maybe Chiarelli can get a 2nd or 3rd as well but I don’t care.

A very competitive team. Contention not just for playoffs but for a long, deep run.

Wheat. I hope they don’t pay him $6M. If they can get him in the same ball park as Klefbom and Larrson they should be able to keep the band together for 5 years even with McDavid making around $8Mx 8 range.

This kind of flies in the face of MacTs comments when he challenged Petry that “you can’t have all your defensemen making $4 mil a year”. Perhaps he was right.

However, 4 top 4 defensemen at $20-$22M per annum makes things work on any manner of levels. Ah shoot, now I’m mad all over again about Petry. All this Trouba trade talk would be unnecessary if Petry was still here.

I know the max contract is what McDavid could make but I’m hoping he wants to win more Stanleys than taking the most cap money he can. Besides, he will likely make way more in endorsements than he will for playing hockey.

I’m not worried about losing Davidson in the expansion draft with Trouba. He goes and one of the leftorium moves up to third pairing. (The Lowe master plan?) Yes I see the WoodMoney numbers. Davidson is dreamy two!

Sorry about the long post. Haven’t posted for a while and I guess I was a little backed up. ( It happens in your late 50s guys)

I missed all the drama the other day and wanted to get a few thoughts off my chest before the comment section goes dark…or grey at least.

Water Fire

fifthcartel:
What about Edm 1st for Fowler, then Fowler, Paigin, and Reinhart for Trouba.

Interesting idea if that works for the Ducks. The Oilers need another contract back from the Jets though probably. Stuart!!

There is still an issue with the leftorium although. They can only have 3 NHL established LHD. The bubbling under guys have to be young and growing or marginal guys like Gryba.

If you have 4 NHL LHD, you either have to play one wrong side or have an unhappy camper who’ll you’ll lose at some point.

Saying that, as soon as Davidson, Reinhart and Nurse are Dapper Dan, all of whom will be IMO, only 3 of Klef, Sekera, Davidson, Nurse, and Reinhart will stay as I see it.

Water Fire

Bank Shot: The Oilers already tried to get rid of Fayne for free.

There were no takers.

Of course I have no idea what the NHL thinks of Fayne, and you may be completely right, and that he has value again like J Schultz, when he’s paid what he’s currently worth.