CULLING THE HERD

by Lowetide

There are several players at this year’s training camp who may not return a year from now, and the free agents (RFA and UFA) who will be sent away are going to give Peter Chiarelli a lot of leeway in the expansion summer. How many players are spending their final seasons on Edmonton’s 50-man roster? Let’s have a look.

  1. Nail Yakupov, RFA summer 2017. Nail has a window of opportunity here, but every day Jesse Puljujarvi spends on the roster in a feature role gets the Russian winger closer to the exit door. A major season ahead, I think this could end in any number of ways. If I had to bet? Another season in Edmonton with middling results. Summer 2017 is probably exit.
  2. Matt Hendricks, UFA summer 2017. Buffalo soldier has enjoyed a productive career but one suspects he is nearly the end of the line. He is a fine PK man and a veteran, could be dealt at the deadline.
  3. Anton Lander, RFA summer 2017. Just like most every season since arriving from Sweden, he enters training camp with question marks and will have to prove himself. Suspect Chiarelli finds another answer for his roster spot and Lander is probably in his final year with the team.
  4. Jonas Gustavsson, UFA summer 2017. I think the Oilers plan on having Laurent Brossoit as Cam Talbot’s backup by this time next season, so Gustavsson is almost surely in his final (and only) Oilers season. A surprising performance may change the narrative.
  5. Eetu Laurikainen, RFA summer 2017. Edmonton has Cam Talbot, Jonas Gustavsson, Laurent Brossoit and possibly Nick Ellis ahead of him. If Ellis wins the backup job in Bakersfield—possible—Laurikainen may end up back in Finland for his final entry-level season.
  6. Bogdan Yakimov, RFA summer. My guess is player and team have a difference of opinion over the value of making $70,000 in Bakersfield this winter. This rarely ends in anything other than a divorce, suspect we see Yak 2.0 dealt in a deal for Wideman or similar.
  7. Andrew Ference, UFA summer 2017. I think he had a terrific career, wish him well and thank him for the 2011 Stanley in Boston (enjoyable experience).
  8. Mark Fraser, UFA summer 2017. This is an area where I might get some pushback, but Fraser’s skills are duplicated across the NHL roster and there are 12 LHD in the minors. A very curious signing, Oilers may not regret it but I do question it.
  9. Tyler Pitlick, RFA summer 2017. For both player and organization, one hopes we see NHL success for this player during 2016-17. A series of injuries have plagued his pro career to the point I thought he might want to try another team this year. Hope it works out well, he deserves good fortune.
  10. Mitchell Moroz, RFA summer 2017. A strong third season is necessary for Moroz to be able to make a case for a second pro contract. In fairness to him, I don’t think he has received a lot of opportunity—but you can also make the case that he did not force the issue with strong play.
  11. Taylor Beck, RFA summer 2017. Kind of a wild card, I like his resume but it is difficult to see a fit on the NHL roster. If he can make himself useful in a utility role, the Lander job may work for him.
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dustrock

Not sure Pitlick deserves good fortune. He just may be a middling injury-prone player.

In terms of a Wins Above Replacement, he’s not making the dial go.

Goalies are voodoo but Ellis has me the most intrigued out of all of them, including Brossoit.

Moose

Lowetide: Is there wins above replacement for the AHL? I don’t think we have seen enough of him in any NHL season to suggest he cannot play a support role in the NHL.

Both of you should know by now that the only way to get rid of Tyler Pitlick is with a silver bullet or stake through the heart.

fuzzy muppet

Breaking news via Friedman:

Trouba has officially requested a trade out of Winnipeg

Little Poteet

Lowetide,

Is this like Yak/drouin wanting a trade or is it serious. Could be standard negotiating tactic.

Rondo

Lowetide,

Chia and Mclellan knows Trouba better now.

Younger Oil

Reinhart, Yakupov, and a 1st for Trouba would be my ideal trade.

Doubt they would do it for anything less than Nurse+, which I would still probably do, but makes the expansion draft tricky.

Trouba is the perfect fit for this team.

dustrock

fuzzy muppet:
Breaking news via Friedman:

Trouba has officially requested a trade out ofWinnipeg

The game’s afoot Watson!

fuzzy muppet

Little Poteet,

He’s not attending training camp so it appears to be the real deal

Moose

As I just said to LT on Twitter, this really is Hamonic 2.0. Perfect fit player with a perfect spot on depth chart open for him. Another opportunity to see if Chia can make it happen. Have to think there will be lots of competition for him given the age/years of control and being RH.

The ask isn’t gonna be cheap.

Centre of attention

*lights candles*

Please please please please please…..

Centre of attention

Davidson+ ??

Too much? Too little?

flyfish1168

Due to CAP issues and Conner needing to be signed, I can see another Steve Austen being traded. JMHO

Centre of attention

Boston is going to offer everything + the kitchen sink for Trouba.

I’m talking consecutive first round picks + colin miller etc…

Chiarelli will be in tough. Lots of other teams to beat for sure.

Moose

flyfish1168:
Due to CAP issues and Conner needing to be signed, I can see another Steve Austen being traded. JMHO

Yeah, and let’s remember the reported Trouba contract ask (if true; big of) wasn’t exactly cheap either. The expansion draft becomes difficult unless Davidson or Sekera are going the other way.

Ducey

Little Poteet:
Lowetide,

Is this like Yak/drouin wanting a trade or is it serious. Could be standard negotiating tactic.

It’s Winnipeg. It’s real.? The Jets are like the Oilers when we had no money.

Is Trouba worth getting excited about? I have this feeling he might Luke Schen or Eric Johnson in few years.

flyfish1168

Younger Oil:
Reinhart, Yakupov, and a 1st for Trouba would be my ideal trade.

Doubt they would do it for anything less than Nurse+, which I would still probably do, but makes the expansion draft tricky.

Trouba is the perfect fit for this team.

Jets left in a weaken position when a player ask for a trade. Darnell at 22 I believe will be better so I would not go for this trade. GR part of a package yes.JMHO

dustrock

What do the Jets need. Is something like Davidson and Pouliot/Maroon ridiculous? Or Yak?
Not sure they’d want our 1st at this point.

Ca$h-McMoney!

Sekera, Prospect, 1st

probably wouldn’t get it done but that’s the dream.

Klima's_Bucket

For the love of Bruce, please stop offering up Davidson or Mr. McCurdy will lose his shit.

dustrock

Also stupid question: Trouba is RFA? So team trading for him would want some idea of ability to sign long-term to avoid offer sheet?

dustrock

Klima’s_Bucket:
For the love of Bruce, please stop offering up Davidson or Mr. McCurdy will lose his shit.

Only because I believe Jets will want an NHL ready LHD.

Sekera prolly says no, so it’s Davidson or Nurse

Centre of attention

Klima’s_Bucket:
For the love of Bruce, please stop offering up Davidson or Mr. McCurdy will lose his shit.

Craig Custance ‏@CraigCustance 8s9 seconds ago
In an ideal deal, Jets would get a comparable, young left-shot defenseman in return for Trouba. That’s not an easy deal to make though.

This is why.

Klima's_Bucket

Kurt Overhardt has played hardball with Turris in Arizona he was dealt and signed a great deal for Ottawa.
He played hardball with Dubinsky in New York, he was dealt to Columbus.
He played hardball with Ryan Johansen, he was dealt to Nashville.
He is currently playing hardball with Trouba, he will be dealt to ????? and signed.

stevezie

He says it’s not about the city or team but his desire to play on the right side.

That’s a good thing.

B.C.B

dustrock,

I would think a package for Trouba that included both Davidson and Ziyat Paygin (and add the oilers first round draft pick). Two left handed defensemen: an under-rated (and under-paid) dman for this season, and another KHL allstar that you don’t have to protect in the expansion draft.

Alpine

B.C.B,

That’s too much for a guy who wasn’t even better than Davidson just last season.

theres oil in virginia

dustrock:
Not sure Pitlick deserves good fortune.He just may be a middling injury-prone player.

In terms of a Wins Above Replacement, he’s not making the dial go.

Goalies are voodoo but Ellis has me the most intrigued out of all of them, including Brossoit.

I don’t know, but when I saw him last, he looked like an NHLer. It’s funny (to me), because I said to myself, “Aah, so this is why LT has been going on about Pitlick.” 🙂 Unfortunately, I don’t know how to quantify “looks like an NHLer”.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Centre of attention,

We don’t have a lot of evidence that Davidson is valued as highly outside of Edmonton as he is to the team. He’s still on a “try out” contract, has less than a full pro season under his belt.
Reinhardt, Yak and a pick might move the dial and I saw go for it. Ideally you want to move Reinhart because he can’t be protected and neither can Yakupov. Definitely not the primary concern but a nice side benefit. There will be some star power with a 2nd 1st overall pick being dealt by the Oilers in the last six months. The Oilers are still a punching bag until the numbers prove otherwise so I wouldn’t be shocked if Chevy said Klef to kick things off.

Now before the insults fly remember we are talking about former players and professional hockey guys looking at this. Not folks well versed and actively seeking advanced statistical reasons during their evaluations. They aren’t always rational and can be prone to goofy decisions. Davidson may be the correct play but I highly doubt anyone would specifically target him in a deal like this.

Alpine

Ducey: It’s Winnipeg. It’s real. The Jets are like the Oilers when we had no money.

Is Trouba worth getting excited about? I have this feeling he might Luke Schen or Eric Johnson in few years.

Did you mean Jack Johnson? Erik is a solid 2/3 defenseman.

I don’t think he’ll end up like Schenn. Luke Schenn had issues with skating and puck handling that which Trouba generally excels at.

Klima's_Bucket

Lowetide,

How would you define “plus” in this case?

B.C.B

Alpine:
B.C.B,

That’s too much for a guy who wasn’t even better than Davidson just last season.

Davidson
Age 24 – 15/16 Oil 51gp 4G 7A 11Pts and Good fancy stats

Trouba
Age 20 – 14/15 Jets 65gp 7G 15A 22pts and decent fancy stats
Age 21 – 13/16 Jets 81gp 6G 15A 21pts, and bad fancy stats

I like Trouba’s room to grow, and his right handness more than I like Davidson.
I also think that if Ziyat Paygin has an average or good season it is more likely to be ended up traded. Since he doesn’t have to be protected, and any team trading away assets is going to not want to protect their new investments.

striatic

Klima’s_Bucket:
Lowetide,

How would you define “plus” in this case?

Presumably someone less valuable than Nurse, or a pick, otherwise we’d be talking about whoever that was, plus.

If Nurse is the biggest piece in a deal for Trouba, the trade is at worst a tie, and I think you go for it.

Moose

I found McLellan’s “Bobby Orr” comment today to be both funny and telling. Even the coach is crying out for some offense from the blue. The entire org knows this is the need, the perfect guy has asked for a trade, the problem now is poker. The rest of the league knew they needed someone like Larsson and it cost them an overpay. Can they avoid that again?

If it’s Nurse + I’d grit my teeth but I’d do it, as long as the sweetener was something small.

fifthcartel

If both Trouba and Hamonic ask for trades and neither become an Oiler, oh my. Trouba literally wants to be traded to play the right side.

Ugh.

nelson88

Not sold on Trouba and particularly if he is looking for big $$.

Reinhart, Yak and 2017 1st for Trouba and 2017 3rd.

rope-a-dope

I notice that the statement says that Trouba’s camp and the Jets have been working on a trade since May. So likely that the information has been out there at least in NHL circles since that time. That may indicate that the price is just too dear.

ASkoreyko

The Trouba article sounds like it was literally written for the Oilers. I have never seen ‘right-shot D’ used that many times before in an article.

It also says they have been trying since May, considering PC traded Hall for Larsson you would think PC was pretty far away from a trade for Trouba? Does the public trade request change anything?

I love Nurse, but you make that move all day every day.

striatic

What would the offer sheet compensation on Trouba look like?

leadfarmer

Well there hasn’t been a better time for Chia to fix the Reinhart error.

nelson88

Does the “Lingham” have the best chinese food near the new arena or are there better options?

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

flyfish1168:
Due to CAP issues and Conner needing to be signed, I can see another Steve Austen being traded. JMHO

Agree … but I do not think it will be RNH if it happens.

Halfwise

nelson88:
Does the “Lingham” have the best chinese food near the new arena or are there better options?

Ling Nan?

ASkoreyko

nelson88:
Does the “Lingham” have the best chinese food near the new arena or are there better options?

It is the Lingnan, and I think it is some of the best Chinese food in the city.

B.C.B

striatic,

Over $3,755,233 to $5,632,847 First and third-round picks
Over $5,632,847 to $7,510,464 First, second and third-round picks

So if you sign him for the Larsson/Klefbom contract, which is what I think he will sign around, making it a 1st and a 3rd. But even at a 6 million dollar contract, that is low compensation.

nelson88

ASkoreyko,

thanks on both counts