CULLING THE HERD
There are several players at this year’s training camp who may not return a year from now, and the free agents (RFA and UFA) who will be sent away are going to give Peter Chiarelli a lot of leeway in the expansion summer. How many players are spending their final seasons on Edmonton’s 50-man roster? Let’s have a look.
- Nail Yakupov, RFA summer 2017. Nail has a window of opportunity here, but every day Jesse Puljujarvi spends on the roster in a feature role gets the Russian winger closer to the exit door. A major season ahead, I think this could end in any number of ways. If I had to bet? Another season in Edmonton with middling results. Summer 2017 is probably exit.
- Matt Hendricks, UFA summer 2017. Buffalo soldier has enjoyed a productive career but one suspects he is nearly the end of the line. He is a fine PK man and a veteran, could be dealt at the deadline.
- Anton Lander, RFA summer 2017. Just like most every season since arriving from Sweden, he enters training camp with question marks and will have to prove himself. Suspect Chiarelli finds another answer for his roster spot and Lander is probably in his final year with the team.
- Jonas Gustavsson, UFA summer 2017. I think the Oilers plan on having Laurent Brossoit as Cam Talbot’s backup by this time next season, so Gustavsson is almost surely in his final (and only) Oilers season. A surprising performance may change the narrative.
- Eetu Laurikainen, RFA summer 2017. Edmonton has Cam Talbot, Jonas Gustavsson, Laurent Brossoit and possibly Nick Ellis ahead of him. If Ellis wins the backup job in Bakersfield—possible—Laurikainen may end up back in Finland for his final entry-level season.
- Bogdan Yakimov, RFA summer. My guess is player and team have a difference of opinion over the value of making $70,000 in Bakersfield this winter. This rarely ends in anything other than a divorce, suspect we see Yak 2.0 dealt in a deal for Wideman or similar.
- Andrew Ference, UFA summer 2017. I think he had a terrific career, wish him well and thank him for the 2011 Stanley in Boston (enjoyable experience).
- Mark Fraser, UFA summer 2017. This is an area where I might get some pushback, but Fraser’s skills are duplicated across the NHL roster and there are 12 LHD in the minors. A very curious signing, Oilers may not regret it but I do question it.
- Tyler Pitlick, RFA summer 2017. For both player and organization, one hopes we see NHL success for this player during 2016-17. A series of injuries have plagued his pro career to the point I thought he might want to try another team this year. Hope it works out well, he deserves good fortune.
- Mitchell Moroz, RFA summer 2017. A strong third season is necessary for Moroz to be able to make a case for a second pro contract. In fairness to him, I don’t think he has received a lot of opportunity—but you can also make the case that he did not force the issue with strong play.
- Taylor Beck, RFA summer 2017. Kind of a wild card, I like his resume but it is difficult to see a fit on the NHL roster. If he can make himself useful in a utility role, the Lander job may work for him.
Not sure Pitlick deserves good fortune. He just may be a middling injury-prone player.
In terms of a Wins Above Replacement, he’s not making the dial go.
Goalies are voodoo but Ellis has me the most intrigued out of all of them, including Brossoit.
Is there wins above replacement for the AHL? I don’t think we have seen enough of him in any NHL season to suggest he cannot play a support role in the NHL.
Both of you should know by now that the only way to get rid of Tyler Pitlick is with a silver bullet or stake through the heart.
Breaking news via Friedman:
Trouba has officially requested a trade out of Winnipeg
Trouba has requested a trade
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/jacob-troubas-agent-says-client-requested-trade/
Lowetide,
Is this like Yak/drouin wanting a trade or is it serious. Could be standard negotiating tactic.
Lowetide,
Chia and Mclellan knows Trouba better now.
Reinhart, Yakupov, and a 1st for Trouba would be my ideal trade.
Doubt they would do it for anything less than Nurse+, which I would still probably do, but makes the expansion draft tricky.
Trouba is the perfect fit for this team.
The game’s afoot Watson!
Little Poteet,
He’s not attending training camp so it appears to be the real deal
As I just said to LT on Twitter, this really is Hamonic 2.0. Perfect fit player with a perfect spot on depth chart open for him. Another opportunity to see if Chia can make it happen. Have to think there will be lots of competition for him given the age/years of control and being RH.
The ask isn’t gonna be cheap.
*lights candles*
Please please please please please…..
Davidson+ ??
Too much? Too little?
Due to CAP issues and Conner needing to be signed, I can see another Steve Austen being traded. JMHO
Boston is going to offer everything + the kitchen sink for Trouba.
I’m talking consecutive first round picks + colin miller etc…
Chiarelli will be in tough. Lots of other teams to beat for sure.
I wrote about Trouba here
http://oilersnation.com/2016/8/3/troubadour
Yeah, and let’s remember the reported Trouba contract ask (if true; big of) wasn’t exactly cheap either. The expansion draft becomes difficult unless Davidson or Sekera are going the other way.
It’s Winnipeg. It’s real.? The Jets are like the Oilers when we had no money.
Is Trouba worth getting excited about? I have this feeling he might Luke Schen or Eric Johnson in few years.
Jets left in a weaken position when a player ask for a trade. Darnell at 22 I believe will be better so I would not go for this trade. GR part of a package yes.JMHO
What do the Jets need. Is something like Davidson and Pouliot/Maroon ridiculous? Or Yak?
Not sure they’d want our 1st at this point.
Sekera, Prospect, 1st
probably wouldn’t get it done but that’s the dream.
For the love of Bruce, please stop offering up Davidson or Mr. McCurdy will lose his shit.
Also stupid question: Trouba is RFA? So team trading for him would want some idea of ability to sign long-term to avoid offer sheet?
Only because I believe Jets will want an NHL ready LHD.
Sekera prolly says no, so it’s Davidson or Nurse
Craig Custance @CraigCustance 8s9 seconds ago
In an ideal deal, Jets would get a comparable, young left-shot defenseman in return for Trouba. That’s not an easy deal to make though.
This is why.
Kurt Overhardt has played hardball with Turris in Arizona he was dealt and signed a great deal for Ottawa.
He played hardball with Dubinsky in New York, he was dealt to Columbus.
He played hardball with Ryan Johansen, he was dealt to Nashville.
He is currently playing hardball with Trouba, he will be dealt to ????? and signed.
He says it’s not about the city or team but his desire to play on the right side.
That’s a good thing.
dustrock,
I would think a package for Trouba that included both Davidson and Ziyat Paygin (and add the oilers first round draft pick). Two left handed defensemen: an under-rated (and under-paid) dman for this season, and another KHL allstar that you don’t have to protect in the expansion draft.
B.C.B,
That’s too much for a guy who wasn’t even better than Davidson just last season.
I don’t know, but when I saw him last, he looked like an NHLer. It’s funny (to me), because I said to myself, “Aah, so this is why LT has been going on about Pitlick.” 🙂 Unfortunately, I don’t know how to quantify “looks like an NHLer”.
Centre of attention,
We don’t have a lot of evidence that Davidson is valued as highly outside of Edmonton as he is to the team. He’s still on a “try out” contract, has less than a full pro season under his belt.
Reinhardt, Yak and a pick might move the dial and I saw go for it. Ideally you want to move Reinhart because he can’t be protected and neither can Yakupov. Definitely not the primary concern but a nice side benefit. There will be some star power with a 2nd 1st overall pick being dealt by the Oilers in the last six months. The Oilers are still a punching bag until the numbers prove otherwise so I wouldn’t be shocked if Chevy said Klef to kick things off.
Now before the insults fly remember we are talking about former players and professional hockey guys looking at this. Not folks well versed and actively seeking advanced statistical reasons during their evaluations. They aren’t always rational and can be prone to goofy decisions. Davidson may be the correct play but I highly doubt anyone would specifically target him in a deal like this.
Did you mean Jack Johnson? Erik is a solid 2/3 defenseman.
I don’t think he’ll end up like Schenn. Luke Schenn had issues with skating and puck handling that which Trouba generally excels at.
I think the price might be Nurse plus and I would do it. I would not do a Nuge trade.
Lowetide,
How would you define “plus” in this case?
Davidson
Age 24 – 15/16 Oil 51gp 4G 7A 11Pts and Good fancy stats
Trouba
Age 20 – 14/15 Jets 65gp 7G 15A 22pts and decent fancy stats
Age 21 – 13/16 Jets 81gp 6G 15A 21pts, and bad fancy stats
I like Trouba’s room to grow, and his right handness more than I like Davidson.
I also think that if Ziyat Paygin has an average or good season it is more likely to be ended up traded. Since he doesn’t have to be protected, and any team trading away assets is going to not want to protect their new investments.
I would say Trouba and WPGs third in 2017 for Nurse and Ziyat Paigin.
Presumably someone less valuable than Nurse, or a pick, otherwise we’d be talking about whoever that was, plus.
If Nurse is the biggest piece in a deal for Trouba, the trade is at worst a tie, and I think you go for it.
I found McLellan’s “Bobby Orr” comment today to be both funny and telling. Even the coach is crying out for some offense from the blue. The entire org knows this is the need, the perfect guy has asked for a trade, the problem now is poker. The rest of the league knew they needed someone like Larsson and it cost them an overpay. Can they avoid that again?
If it’s Nurse + I’d grit my teeth but I’d do it, as long as the sweetener was something small.
If both Trouba and Hamonic ask for trades and neither become an Oiler, oh my. Trouba literally wants to be traded to play the right side.
Ugh.
Not sold on Trouba and particularly if he is looking for big $$.
Reinhart, Yak and 2017 1st for Trouba and 2017 3rd.
I notice that the statement says that Trouba’s camp and the Jets have been working on a trade since May. So likely that the information has been out there at least in NHL circles since that time. That may indicate that the price is just too dear.
The Trouba article sounds like it was literally written for the Oilers. I have never seen ‘right-shot D’ used that many times before in an article.
It also says they have been trying since May, considering PC traded Hall for Larsson you would think PC was pretty far away from a trade for Trouba? Does the public trade request change anything?
I love Nurse, but you make that move all day every day.
What would the offer sheet compensation on Trouba look like?
Well there hasn’t been a better time for Chia to fix the Reinhart error.
Does the “Lingham” have the best chinese food near the new arena or are there better options?
Agree … but I do not think it will be RNH if it happens.
Ling Nan?
It is the Lingnan, and I think it is some of the best Chinese food in the city.
striatic,
Over $3,755,233 to $5,632,847 First and third-round picks
Over $5,632,847 to $7,510,464 First, second and third-round picks
So if you sign him for the Larsson/Klefbom contract, which is what I think he will sign around, making it a 1st and a 3rd. But even at a 6 million dollar contract, that is low compensation.
ASkoreyko,
thanks on both counts
Exactly. While this is news to most of the hockey world, NHL brass have known this for months and whomever was interested made offers and they weren’t accepted.
This information is now released by Trouba’s camp to put pressure on Chevy to accept someone’s deal.
Agreed, has been so for a very long time.
Statement by Jets sounds like stevieY on drouin, we own your soul boy, welcome to the NHL, all the GM’s play ball the same way, so do what we want. No matter how good the RFA, if you are RFA with no Arbitration rights your demands hold no weight
Lowetide,
What’s that saying again, about no one tossing any life rafts out to GMs at bay…
I would ultimately trade nurse as well, as much as I hate it, because he’s a lefty and trouba has more offensive upside. However, I would start with former #1 OV draft pick and Reinhart…
I’m not a fan of trading for trade-request players. But I’m not too worried. Straight odds would be 3.3% and if only half the league might be in this market, still less than a 10% chance the Oilers get caught up in this.
In the cap era, dollars are paramount. So if Trouba is looking for a big contract, money has to be going the other way. So I can’t see Nurse and a prospect working for the Oilers. It would have to be something like Nurse (or Reinhart) and a second round pick plus Fayne to make the dollars work.
Trouba is a better player than Nurse or Davidson. You have to make those deals, the team would be better.
The cap likes the deal because Sekera can go soon as players develop because leftorium, Fayne can be liquidated as well, and Nurse or Davie aren’t going to get high dollars, the cap hit should work long term.
Getting 4 high quality young D and LR balanced is worth losing a player over. The team would be set up so well on D. With the centres it would be a very string team for years. If only………………
As for Pitlick, his inability to stay healthy is a part of the story. His chances are very slim IMO because his body cannot tolerate the sport at a pro level, in NA anyways. After this year if he doesn’t play a full season nearly and isn’t about to stick, I think he should go to Europe and make some money while he is at prime. Might as well get something out of his passion for the future.
I believe those from across the pond take a more rational view of money and hockey because the NHL isn’t necessarily their one burning passion like it is for NA players. They have options to get paid well that are not ‘foreign’ to them.
This is what makes Russians etc hard to cash as picks. I don’t think I’d use another on a ‘soviet’ player for anything but really high end talents, and only after really sussing them out their desires. Odds become far lower of success with all the other considerations with them.
This is the deal with Nakladal IMO, and he’s said as much. He’s thinking money, young family and he’s older. HIs ask to make it worth his while on a one way is likely based on what he can make over there, as it should be, and it might be too rich for GM’s for an iffy 3RD.
B.C.B,
https://twitter.com/generalfanager/status/748130878266687488/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Looks like the Oilers would have to trade for picks in order to make that happen, or to leverage the threat of it.
Marchand’s coming out party!
Pretty sure his critiques have been silenced
Stop trading yak and Reinhart. WPG doesn’t need players they have to protect.
The problem with trading Nurse is he is not eligible for the expansion draft so if we trade him we likely expose and lose Davidson too.
– I swear, as I read this article, I’m going to post about my ideal: Yak steps up, pool-party emerges, and Ebs can be traded for an offensive RHD. Then I scroll down and this Trouba rumour.
– I’m not sure I’d do it, but I can see an Ebs + whatever for Trouba (assume he’s signed for less than Larsson, i.e $3.9MM x 5) + something else in return:
You now have a D of:
Klef-Larsson
Sek-Fayne
Davidson-Trouba
– On paper, that has the potential to be pretty elite, with both Trouba and Davidson being able to move up. It really advances the needle on the D.
– OF course your flushing another Steve Austin for less than “full value”, but I can see this
What does wood money say about trouba?
How would he compare to klefbom for example
To me it looks like more than a trade would cost in cap at very least. It’s why nobody does them. You waste cap and often lose more assets as well.
Nurse gets that deal done for sure as the core IMO. The question is do they love him too much? Trouba is a better player and has more upside. This could be selling high on Nurse, lowering the long term cost. The thing is they have the kid’s pic in the arena, no? Pretty big man crush for a guy not even established as an NHL regular.
Reinhart plus a second and Fayne is a done deal for Trouba.
Strongly disagree on the upside. It seems as though trouba has accepted the fact he is slotted below Myers. Nurse seems the type willing to battle for that ice time. Not to mention he is expansion exempt. A whole lot of short sightedness tonight. Exemption and salary cap are a real issue in gming in today’s NHL. I’m glad we have chia at the reigns.
Isn’t Chia the one that put Boston in a world of hurt in regards to the cap?
B.C.B,
Trouba
Age 20 – 14/15 Jets 65gp 7G 15A 22pts and decent fancy stats
Age 21 – 13/16 Jets 81gp 6G 15A 21pts, and bad fancy stats
I disagree that Trouba had bad fancy stats last year.
Trouba has played in the NHL in his 19,20, and 21 year old years.
Here’s his breakdown over those years:
CF%
19: 49.89
20: 54.72
21: 51.75
Rel CF%
19: -0.9
20: +2.48
21: +0.50
Expected GF%
19 : 47.75
20: 53.60
21: 53.60
RelxGF%
19: -2.29
20: +1.39
21: +5.02 (!!)
5v5 Pts/60
19: 1.16
20: 0.62
21: 0.57
While he ran hot points wise in his rookie year, it was his weakest fancystats year by far.
His fancy stats have been good to very good.
The craziest thing is if you take into account he’s mostly played with Mark Stuart the whole time, whose best years are certainly behind him.
His numbers with and without Stuart last year:
CF%
With Stuart 47.87
WIthout Stuart 54.21
RelCF%
With Stuart -3.93
Without Stuart +3.60
xGF%
With Stuart 49.12
Without Stuart 56.45
RelxGF%
With Stuart -1.27
Without Stuart +7.77(!!!!)
To put that +7.77 RelxGF% into persepctive, here’s the top 5 NHL Dmen by that metric last year:
Vlasic 10.65
Giordano 7.97
Hainsey 7.54
Barrie 7.38
Niskanen 6.90
Also consider that when he wasn’t with Stuart he was playing up the roster in 1st or 2nd pair.
He’s big, hits like a train, plays mean, has a hammer for a shot and is right handed and his results are elite in a few different metrics already at 21.
Yes please.
I’d trade any LHD off the roster not named Klefbom for him and add to if they wanted.
He is exactly what the Oilers need.
Exactly.
Klima’s_Bucket,
He’s also the gm that led them to a Stanley cup, no?
There’s blue skying and then there is blue skying.
kinger_OIL,
That’s not pretty elite, that’s amongst the best Dcorps in the NHL bar none.
treevojo,
Ha, yeah, you win some and you lose some.
Name me the gm that has won a Stanley cup and his team’s salary cap wasn’t in a world of hurt?
It’s gotta include Sekera. Only way the dollars work.
– It has to hurt, a lot. Ebs + hurt, IMO. I’d do it, the D looks sexy with him…
– What about Nurse + Yak+ 1st round? It’s this kind of hurt. Trouba’s don’t come available often…
Woodguy,
See what happens when you don’t look something up and go by memory: you’re wrong. Thanks for correcting me.
I am loathed to trade Nurse for Trouba, but only because I want to see them play together for the next five or six years and terrify our opponent. Likely I would trade Nurse+ for Trouba, but not Lowetide’s +. Trading Nurse and Ziyat Paigin is too much: I know we have the leftorium, but I don’t think it can take that much damage (the two closest-to-NHL, expansion-draft exempt defensemen).
As per Friedman and I’m paraphrasing – Trouba requesting a trade has nothing to do with his teammates, it mostly has to do with the pecking order, he won’t play ahead of big Buff and won’t play in front of Myers.
Like Woodguy says he’s a legit 1 or 2 but is down the depth chart in Win.
I have to also beli be he isn’t asking more than 7 mill, which is doable if the Oilers drop Fayne.
Maybe, but I think more likely is that Byf and Myers are signed, the Jets are weak and older at LD, and Trouba is a better player than Myers who I feel isn’t that special and probably would not do well at all wrong side, so Trouba has to play LD to help the team, and apparently he doesn’t want to.
On the Oilers side, Trouba got a nice look at three pretty decent Oiler centres, shiny new digs hmmm ………
Ca$h-McMoney!,
Sekera has had a very good WCH and maybe improved his trade stock a bit, but enough for Winnipeg to deal a 22 year old defenceman for a 30 year old one?
striatic,
Sekera 1st and prospect not JP.
Not saying it gets it done mins you.
Trouba is expecting 6m or more per year. Can’t pay him and Sekera. Fayne is expensive too but comes
Off the books sooner.
The jets roster looks weak at LD, and their high end players are Sceifele, Wheeler and in a while Laine. They aren’t deep up front, best at RW now, so don’t need a RW like Yak who Laine is better than now IMO.
I believe they also are salary conscious, so likely a young NHL LHD and a pick are what they want, maybe a LW prospect.
edit – Scheifele
It doesn’t matter. Sekera has a NMC and I would bet my imaginary farm that he would never waive it to go to Winnipeg. It would have to be Nurse, Davidson, or Klefbom. Nurse makes the most sense.
– Yeah the Oil wouldn’t do that IMO: he is worth less/year on a 5 year deal than either Klef or Larsson, based on his resume to date, and his years of UFA left.
– Keep in mind his agent wants to get paid, when considering sources
Klefbom played on a much weaker team so its easier for his Relative numbers to be better.
I’ve added in Nurse and Davidson as those two names are being thrown around going back the other way
That said:
WoodMoney
CF% Vs. Elite Forwards
Trouba 48.2% & -0.50 RelComp
Klefbom 54.4% & +8.10 (!!) RelComp
Nurse 45.2% & -1.40 RelComp
Davidson 49.8% & +2.50 RelComp
DFF% vs. Elite Forwards (DFF very similar to Expected Goals)
Trouba 50.3% & +1.60 RelComp
Klefbom 47.9% & +5.00 RelComp
Nurse 45.2% & -1.60 RelComp
Davidson 50.3% & +3.20 RelComp
CF% vs Middle Forwards
Trouba 53.2% & +1.30 RelComp
Klefbom 52.0% & +5.70 RelComp
Nurse 44.7% & -3.50 RelComp
Davidson 48.7% & -0.30 RelComp
DFF% vs Middle Forwards
Trouba 55.3% & +4.50 RelComp
Klefbom53.2% & +7.80 (!) RelComp
Nurse 43.2% & -4.50 RelComp
Davidson50.6% & +2.10 RelComp
CF% vs Gritensity Forwards
Trouba 53.8% & +0.60 RelComp
Klefbom 56.5% & +0.10 RelComp
Nurse 47.6% & -5.00 RelComp
Davidson 58.70% & +6.00RelComp
DFF% vs. Gritensity Forwards
Trouba 55.2% & +2.90 RelComp
Klefbom 53.8% & -3.60 RelComp
Nurse 48.3% & -3.40 RelComp
Davidson 55.90% & +4.50 RelComp
Note: The Relative metrics are all done per game and not compared to the rest of the team in games they player did not play in. Much more accurate and also explains why two players can be somewhat close in CF% or DFF% and further apart on the Rels.
If the Oilers traded Nurse for Trouba and ran:
Klefbom – Larsson
Sekera – Trouba
Davidson – Fayne
They would have a top 10 NHL Dcorps.
I’m not exaggerating.
Maybe top 5.
That is good and deep.
Thanks.
I’m not as high on Nurse as some, but I don’t dislike the player either.
I think a Nurse-Trouba pairing would be dynamite when Nurse got better and would pound the shit out of many opponents while hockeying pretty good too.
A Trouba trade would also prevent the Oilers from signing Burns to a crazy long term contract next summer.
pocession charge,
Burns will never make it to free agency.
Water Fire,
Don’t get me wrong I would love to trade for trouba. Used to love him when he broke in the league and he was roughing up our best player hall. I am just not trading nurse for him for the reasons I mentioned. If you are going to lose Davidson with a nurse trade then the offer should start with Davidson and go from there. Problem is I really like Davidson as well and his contract could be a huge bargain if he continues on his upward trajectory. The best I would do in a trade would be Davidson, Reinhardt and yak for trouba. I think that trade could be beneficial to both teams.
Sekera, Reinhart, Yakupov, 2nd Round pick
for
Trouba, 3rd Round pick, and one of Dano or Armia
I’m inclined to agree with you. Unless he’s asking for something crazy, he’ll likely re-sign in SJ.
When Fayne is your most limited D your laughing.
The salient point here is 5 mobile, intelligent players that can pass, are playing in position, and nobody is a non-physical player. I think your being conservative as to where that group would rank in the league.
There are teams with higher end individual D yes, but the Oilers would be a very hard team to play after they gelled if healthy and Talbot holds up. Very hard to beat. And a tide that strong floats all boats.
I do not know much about the internal dynamics of a hockey club but from what I have read Trouba’s demands would far exceed $6m. Would they blow the salary structure and pay a 2RD a lot more than everyone else? Methinks this will not happen.
I wouldn’t be so sure about that. If the Sharks implode to any extent this year and either of Thornton or Marleau don’t re-sign, then they may trigger an exodus and all three might try their luck elsewhere. Burns’ old coach is in Edmonton, the Oilers are most likely built to Burns’ liking (heavy, offensive), the best arena in the league, a chance to play in Canada, living in Alberta near the mountains for a guy who loves the outdoors, a working class lunch bucket city that loves hockey, and most of all a chance to play with McDavid for an offensive defenseman. I think he might like to see what’s out there and if Edmonton is interested.
Anything could happen, it comes down to how the Jets value the Oiler’s 50 man list.
IF they thought a lot of Reinhart or Davie, and IF I’m right that they need to save actual $ as opposed to cap dollars (because they aren’t a high revenue team like the Oil and it’s a myth that teams will lose money and get cash from owners to pay bills very often), and IF they think the Oil will still tank and give them better odds with the first, it might happen with lesser players.
Nurse being ineligible for the expansion draft adds a lot to his value this season, maybe that, his quality and lesser cost mean it’s straight up, and the Oilers can’t lose that trade. It’s a no brainer.
That may have been a ploy to push a trade.
Very good Jets blogger Garret Hohl wrote this about Trouba in June: http://jetsnation.ca/2016/6/6/don-t-let-point-totals-fool-you-trouba-has-been-getting-better-and-better
Thinking about Chia and McLellan talking up Nuge has me concerned now.
Peter Chiarelli will be competing with many other GMs for Trouba. The price is expected to be expensive. Being unwilling to meet the price should no longer be an option. Winnipeg needs Left Shot Defenseman as much as we need Right Shot D. The 2017 – 1st goes for sure. Forwards that the Oilers will trade are of little interest for Winnipeg. Brandon Davidson is our only NHL-caliber LHD that works for the deal. Adding their choice of Nurse or Reinhart should make it work. That still might not be enough.
Micah McCurdy raves about him too. Just retweeted him on my timeline.
If you don’t plan to compelt, why bother?
One of the nice things about Larsson and Klefbom tied up for $4M each for the next million years is that it does open an opportunity to play $6M for a guy like Trouba.
I think they have to add money to Nurse. I think the Oilers like Nurse too much to do it.
Jets will want Klefbom. Sekera probably won’t cut it. You’d have to add to Sekera without adding cap and get him to void the NMC.
It can be done, but it won’t be easy.
They can move Fayne as well. Somebody will take him for free (like a 4-6). Perhaps a cap floor team. RH D always have value and he is a true NHL D.
The Oilers already tried to get rid of Fayne for free.
There were no takers.
If you mean waivers, there is still the contract # issue, and the fact a 3M player getting waived is a bad sign. He finished well enough to restore his NHL rep IMO.
The verbal we read from GM’s constantly refers to cap considerations and contract #’s. Talent, cap, prospects, picks and contract numbers are the currency of the NHL.
They could even retain on Fayne. Nurse, and Fayne at 75% for Trouba and a contract saves the Jets money, and I think bolsters their D corp left and right if Trouba is going anyway.
I doubt it’s that but better players have moved for stranger things fairly recently. It depends on what the Jets value in the Oilers’ system.
Fayne would have more value in trade than waivers, because the other team gets to off-load salary in return, or possibly the Oilers withhold part of Fayne’s.
He has negative value, so yeah you probably could trade him for someone else’s cap dump, but then you aren’t getting much if any of the cap savings that Wheatnoil was looking for.
What about Edm 1st for Fowler, then Fowler, Paigin, and Reinhart for Trouba.
Of course I have no idea what the NHL thinks of Fayne, and you may be completely right, and that he has value again like J Schultz, when he’s paid what he’s currently worth.
Interesting idea if that works for the Ducks. The Oilers need another contract back from the Jets though probably. Stuart!!
There is still an issue with the leftorium although. They can only have 3 NHL established LHD. The bubbling under guys have to be young and growing or marginal guys like Gryba.
If you have 4 NHL LHD, you either have to play one wrong side or have an unhappy camper who’ll you’ll lose at some point.
Saying that, as soon as Davidson, Reinhart and Nurse are Dapper Dan, all of whom will be IMO, only 3 of Klef, Sekera, Davidson, Nurse, and Reinhart will stay as I see it.
Thanks WG for the WoodMoneys. Trouba looks like the real deal. Can understand why he doesn’t want to be third fiddle.
I think the Oilers could do Nurse and the 1st next year for him. Yes it’s a massive overpay but I’m sure that trade gets us the balance photo. Maybe Chiarelli can get a 2nd or 3rd as well but I don’t care.
A very competitive team. Contention not just for playoffs but for a long, deep run.
Wheat. I hope they don’t pay him $6M. If they can get him in the same ball park as Klefbom and Larrson they should be able to keep the band together for 5 years even with McDavid making around $8Mx 8 range.
This kind of flies in the face of MacTs comments when he challenged Petry that “you can’t have all your defensemen making $4 mil a year”. Perhaps he was right.
However, 4 top 4 defensemen at $20-$22M per annum makes things work on any manner of levels. Ah shoot, now I’m mad all over again about Petry. All this Trouba trade talk would be unnecessary if Petry was still here.
I know the max contract is what McDavid could make but I’m hoping he wants to win more Stanleys than taking the most cap money he can. Besides, he will likely make way more in endorsements than he will for playing hockey.
I’m not worried about losing Davidson in the expansion draft with Trouba. He goes and one of the leftorium moves up to third pairing. (The Lowe master plan?) Yes I see the WoodMoney numbers. Davidson is dreamy two!
Sorry about the long post. Haven’t posted for a while and I guess I was a little backed up. ( It happens in your late 50s guys)
I missed all the drama the other day and wanted to get a few thoughts off my chest before the comment section goes dark…or grey at least.
Woodguy,
You’ve got me convinced Trouba is a solid bet.
What would you be willing to part with to land the guy?
I wouldn’t trade Davidson straight across for Trouba. I think he’s better today and will make a fraction in salary.
I really want Trouba!
Don’t be surprised to see Nuge go for Trouba, and then Mike Richards sign a contract to log the tough minutes.
I think that scenario mentioned of the Oil 1st for Fowler and then Fowler + Reinhart for Trouba (if Fowler signs with Wpg) being a win-win. The Oilers can always sweeten the pot over the competition with a guy like Paigin – Chiarelli SHOULD win this sweepstake.
I heard that Cheveldayoff asked for Klefbom AND Nurse, and Chiarelli took his ball and left. Chevy needs to enter the world of reality. But he may be like Yzerman and just like Trouba rot. Chevy does not rush into trades and he does not compromise.
Nurse is not going anywhere. Don’t even waste time considering it. He is a big part of the Oilers’ future.
Trouba will get $5.5M just like a Dougie Hamilton and Tyson Barrie. And be totally worth it. He is 100% exactly the missing piece. He gets added – the Oilers make the playoffs.
If they want a LHD anything besides Klefbom and I’d add picks etc.
If they want a C, I’m not sure.
He’d have to sign for 5.5MM or less though.
I wonder if the Jets will let teams talk contract in order to help increase the return.
If I was a team and I was able to talk with Troubas agent about a contract, I would feel a hell of a lot more confident loading up a trade package.
I’m in agreement with any LHD other than Klefbom with other secondary pieces being traded for Trouba.
I would not trade one of the centers for him.
The Oilers will only be able to protect 4 Defenceman and Nurse. So when I look at it like that, yes I trade Davidson for Trouba
Nuge? Good Lord, I sure as hell hope not.
The question is; would Chiarelli offer Drai?
Would you?
TSG would not
Totally agree with this. I would actually pass on Trouba. I’ve only seen him play a handful of times, but he’s never impressed me. He looked blah at the World Cup.
Two ways to look at our LHD…
We have lots of potential ?
Or
We have lots of potential ?
Every blog in Canada this evening:
Shite+Unwanted Crap+Picks
for Trouba
No offence LT?
I don’t see how Chevy will listen to anything less than Klef. That’s where the discussion has to start imo in exchange for someone who’s arguably already a top pair dman, which Nurse isn’t (at least yet).
I think I’d be willing to do it, but that’s only because I think our dreamy Klef is prone to injury. For a non-injury prone dreamy Klef I wouldn’t.
If Sekera would waive his NMC, would Sekera + 2017 1st work? Would WIN be interested? I’d do it if I were them.
It would mean the Oilers don’t pick until the 3rd round next year, though. Given the trades last year, it could have ramifications in McDavid’s second contract with a dry prospect cupboard, especially at forward.
Say it aint.
Bob Mac’s scouts he polls said “Davidson would start in any playoff teams top 4.”
Pescador,
Chiarelli was shopping Nuge around all summer for a top D, and nobody bit (except Fletcher for shite like Dumba).
Nuge had a great World Cup so his value is high. I don’t think Chiarelli has any plans to deal budding power forward Draisaitl. That’s what Montreal wanted and Chiarelli balked – he wouldn’t even entertain the option.
I’m not endorsing it but if Richards and Letestu were each playing the 12 tough minutes (maybe McNeill gets acquired for Musil as added C depth)… and McDavid and Draisaitl eat the other 18 minutes – I can see where Chiarelli is going. He has some experienced wingers like Lucic, Pouliot, Maroon, and Versteeg to lead and shelter them a bit. I’d say Eberle but he’s a glorified goal suck; I’m not a big fan.
I would prefer the Fowler/Reinhart/+ scenario but I wouldn’t be broken up over a Nuge for Trouba deal. It’s quality for quality. It leaves a hole at C if Draisaitl doesn’t emerge (but damn does he look good at the World Cup!). But it solves a 10-year crater we’ve had since Pronger left and would completely change the complexion of the team. Suddenly, we have SIX puck moving defensemen in Klefbom/ Sekera/ Davidson/ Nurse/ Trouba/ Larsson. We’ve been so used to struggling to get out of our zone, we won’t know what hit us.
They would have to find a home for Fayne though somehow. Maybe package him with Yakupov to a cap strapped team like Columbus for Hartnell and a pick?
Reinhart loves Edmonton but with the leftorium, he is probably hoping for a trade. He’s going to be stuck in the minors for at least 1/2 the year despite his strong stretch run last season.
Klefbom and Reinhart for Trouba and something (3rd rounder?), I would do. It’s a fair price.
Woodguy: if 93.8% of the top 300 scorers even goals are from forwards.
What influence do d have on the high scoring CF?
McLellan in his latest interview referred to Klef not as healthy, but as “healthier”, which is worrying.
I don’t believe either of these are true. I have a reliable source who indicated that many teams were asking about Nuge in the summer (assuming he was available because Chia was shopping Hall), and Chia said no to them all. RNH wasn’t on the table then, and I’m certain he’s still not available now.
From an earlier Friedman article, the MTL-EDM talks were never close. This was mostly due to Subban’s contract which was thought to be too unwieldy to manage in the near future with all the talented players needing contracts in the coming years. That is what Chia balked at.
I do not normally get involved in speculative trade proposals but Trouba really would be the final piece in the jigsaw.
Winnipeg need LD but will not take KBom because of his injury history.
Sekera will not waive his NMC
I like both Davidson and Nurse but one of them has to go.
Trouba is better than both as of today, and is RD, so adding Fayne, Yak, Reinhart, will not do it.
Davidson or Nurse + next year’s first (or RNH) might do it.
Chia is in full on, win now mode. I think he might go for it if salary demand is reasonable.
You might be higher than I am. Klef or Nuge is far too much for Trouba(especially after asking to be dealt). Though I agree with Woodguy.. Trouba is exactly what this team needs, to fill out what could be an extremely strong D corp. Maybe Chia goes next level and sells our 1st rounder for top 10 value before the season begins.
The Jets have a number of younger Cs that could also go back to the Oilers. Burmistrov, Lowry, Copp, Petan are all competing for the 4c job. Petan is famous but Copp looked good when he didn’t have to play with pluggers.
Interesting. Might be nothing, but maybe not.
People often misinterpret what I say. Perhaps I should say it simpler.
1) Peter Chiarelli will be competing with many other GMs. At least those who are interested in Trouba.
2) It will be expensive, despite the word of wanting a trade get out. There will be many offers made.
3) Being unwilling to meet the price should no longer be an option. If this person is of value to your Team, make your best offer. If his counter offer is extreme, decide then on going futher.
At no time do I suggest that Chiarelli should not make an offer. I think he should.
I expect the 2017 1st to be a neccessary addition to an offer. I expect Brandon Davidson as an NHL-caliber LHD to be a necessary addition to an offer. I would offer a choice of Darnell Nurse or Griffen Reinhart as a necessary addition to an offer. I just don’t think this might be enough. And I don’t know what Peter Chiarelli could add.
I wasn’t being critical, I was using the word compelt in a humorous way. Or, you know, not. 🙂
Richard, if you offer nurse up you will lose Davison in the expansion draft.
Nurse has by far the most value around the league of the players mentioned.
Nurse is also the worst player by far of the players mentioned.
The expansion draft is irrelevant in any trade discussion. You lose one player no matter what. Therefore trading Nurse does not cost you Davidson. If Davidson is selected it means some other, basically as good player, is not selected.
Therefore all trade proposals for Trouba should include Nurse. It’s a no brainer.
I would be very surprised if the Jets receive a trade package worth more than Nurse + first round pick + filler prospect for Trouba, and that’s a no doubt, must do trade, for the Oilers.
If they do that trade, they have to win in the next two years. The Lucic contract is an absolute killer.
And? People keep saying this as if it were relevant. But it clearly isn’t because you don’t lose Davidson, you lose the delta between Davidson and the next guy on the list. In comparison to the differential in value of an average trade this is a vanishingly small consideration.
And that’s if it is even true that you would lose Davidson. The expansion team might take someone else. And none of it matters because the expansion draft is a zero-sum proposition.
The one exception to this is the teams that lose goalies. Those teams are massive winners, because losing your backup goalie is losing nothing.
The exception to this is if you have a goal with a no movement clause who is not your best goalie. Then you fucked yourself.
while we’re blue-lining?
This is probably ridiculous, but how about:
Ebs and a pick for Trouba
Then run:
Lucic-McDavid-Yakupov
Pouliot-Nuge-Versteeg
Maroon-Drai-Puljujarvi
Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian
Klefbom-Larsson
Sekera-Trouba
Davidson-Fayne
Then protect 5D (5 above minus Fayne), then Drai, Nuge, Lucic up front.
Pros:
-Clears up a bit of contract space for the upcoming RFAs.
-Holy mother of God is that D corps ever good.
-Yak had similar results as Eberle with McDavid.
-Puljujarvi is the #1RW of the future anyways, might as well get value for Ebs now.
-Not giving up Nurse, who is expansion protected. Lets him start in the AHL too.
-If Trouba is signed for term our top 4 D is sorted for the next 5 years, for under $20M.
Cons:
-The RW depth was sketchy at best even before the trade, creates a big potential hole in the lineup if anyone falters.
-Trouba may demand a $6M contract as opposed to one similar to Klef/Larsson.
-???
http://www.torontosun.com/2016/09/24/edmonton-oilers-will-be-chewing-over-where-darnell-nurse-will-fit-on-blueline
Matty’s latest on Nurse
Matty seems pretty hooked in these days with his articles, more so than in the past.
This article is setting up Nurse being on the 3rd pairing with a hint that Bakersfield is possible. We knew the Oilers brass was quite high on him but even they know he struggled last year. I was partially worried that they thought his last year was great, he turned out exactly as they expected and they could slot him back in the Top 4.
Also interesting that there’s some ground work laid to lower Nurse’s upside from a top pairing stud D to a top 4 with PK ability. The latter, I think, is where I see Nurse’s potential ceiling at this point. That’s a shift, though, off of management’s previous verbal of him being a sure top pairing guy.
There’s a legitimate chance I’m reading that article and parsing it to fit into my own preconceived perspective. However, it seems to me that it’s an article that still sells Nurse high but is laying the groundwork to lower expectation for him slightly. That’s mostly based on my suspicion that management views Darnell as the third most untouchable piece behind Connor and Drai.
If you watched the interviews from camp today you will see Matty asking questions about whether Darnell would be limited at the NHL level and Mclellan shooting him down, and describing Nurse as a potential five tool defenceman.
Matty was definitely trying to get Mclellan or Nurse to say that Nurse was overwhelmed last season.
They didn’t bite.
I think Matty is just writing an opinion piece here.
Could be. Or he’s getting that opinion from someone in management that isn’t McLellan.
He’s not under contract to the Jets.
Anyone can talk to him at any time.
He’s a free agent, he’s just a restricted free agent
ZING!
Do not conflate CF% with scoring.
Players who drive CF% drive the puck from the Dzone to the Ozone.
Once the puck is in the ozone, then scoring ability is the driver of goals.
Dmen don’t drive goals much, but they can (and do) drive CF% which creates opportunity for goals.
Trouba is not a top pairing Dman yet.
TOI % vs Elite Forwards last year:
Buff 39%
Myers 37%
Trouba 33%
I know that Trouba had some TOI w/ both Buff and Myers and that muddys things a bit, but it still speaks to deployment.
Hi WG
how does Rasmus Ristolainen compare to Trouba. By eye last year I saw Ristolainen very good. I believe Ristolainen would not be part of the expansion draft since he was a 2013 draft like Nurse. Both without a contract.
if Nurse is to be traded for a RHD I prefer Rasmus Ristolainen. Not sure what the analytic people feel here
Here is a video of Lucic versus Rasmus Ristolainen
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZuuJsjimbQ
It’s Trouba-mania!
Nice situation for the Jets – trade a 3rd pairing RHD as if he’s a 1st pairing. The auction should be hot and, given what Larsson cost, I can’t see the Oilers lasting long. Any deal may get done in-season?
Trouba’s only reason he wants out of Winnipeg is because they wont play him on the right side?
I was born at night, but not last night!
He had all summer, and thats the best “reason” he could come up with why he wants out?
Tough to compare them.
Risto plays 1st pairing on a poor team with a poor partner and his results reflect that.
Risto has to be protected given his years of pro play.
Last year was his 2nd pro year and only Nurse’s 1st.
That’s the difference.
Risto is the best Dman on BUF, I see no reason for them to trade him.
Trouba on the other hand is probably pretty available.
Ristolainen was Nurse-like (i.e. bad) last year. He has more history of offense so he has more upside than Nurse, but he also has a huge reputation such that he would cost more than Trouba. Trading for him is the kind of bad idea Will Fraser likes to think is smart.
Plus, haven’t you heard that the expansion draft is irrelevant in evaluating trades.
Well, the agent can’t say “we want $6MM/yr and the Jets offered a bridge at $3.5 so we told them to take a flying fuck at a rolling donut” now can he?
With the number of good young Dmen who signed long term for $4MM-$4.5MM after their ELCs there is no way a team should bit on $6MM for Trouba imo.
Seems like an awful lot of thiings to consider lots of far reaching implications
The big shot on the PP. would be nice for some easy goals
I like the idea of Sekera and a prospect D man plus a pick but that does not help Wpg cap situ
We all love Davidson and he may be the $$ key to making a deal
How about Davidson and our next 2 Firsts.?
Fayne IS our most limited D and it hurts!