THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT

by Lowetide

I know many of you probably think this blog rambles on too much about balance and depth, but the Edmonton Oilers are going to make several decisions in the next few hours and those two items—or lack thereof—will play a big part in the final roster. Edmonton has substantial issues, we know them well.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

defense-last-night

  • Nurse—Fayne had brilliant possession numbers but were not an effective pairing. Nurse had three shots, two blocks but was chasing the puck quite a bit and had trouble getting the game under control. Fayne looked very poor, he could not corral the puck and send it to a good place. He gave away the puck four times, an incredible total for a veteran in an exhibition game. I sincerely believe in not overreacting to one game, but that was a bad one for him to have on the eve of cutdown day. Both men should be considered bubble players today, suspect they make the roster. If life was fair, Brandon Davidson—Matt Benning would be the third pair, opening night.
  • Klefbom—Larsson were excellent again to my eye, good outlet passing and skated miles. Klefbom had four shots, a takeaway and a blocked shot, Larsson had two blocked shots, two takeaways and three giveaways—too many for sure, but he has been excellent this week overall.
  • There was a lot of anger last night in the comments section, but teams lose on flukey goals and for whatever reason the Oilers are often heartbreaking on Saturday.
  • If you are judging Adam Larsson on last night—or the preseason—then I think it is reasonable to question your judgement. Folks, we all need to give this top pairing some time and defensive breakdowns per 60 have been less with Klefbom—Larsson. Chin up, all is not lost.
  • Andrej Sekera—Kris Russell had some issues, one should expect it from a new pairing. I think Sekera is primed for a brilliant season, he has been quality in the exhibition season. Sekera had an assist, two shots, played well to my eye. Russell looked like a guy in his first day of training camp. We should take a longer view on him, as is the case with Larsson.
  • Cam Talbot is also taking some heat, his preseason performance was just okay to my eye, I don’t think he cost them the game last night but your mileage may vary. Peter Chiarelli will make a move—at a large cost, no doubt—if the Talbot—Gustavsson tandem cannot get it done. I remain confident in Talbot, less so with the Monster.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

forwards-last-night

  • Lucic—McDavid—Eberle performed very well, this was their best game as a line to my eye.  McDavid went 1-1-2, skated miles, was dangerous from halfway through the anthem until the end of the game. I felt (apparently some disagree) this line showed far better chemistry last night, Lucic specifically making effective passes compared to his own training camp resume heading into the evening. Jordan Eberle had five shots on goal and some great looks, nice to see him rounding into form. Easy to forget his injury in preseason a year ago and the impact his loss had on the early season.
  • Pouliot—Nuge—Draisaitl were also impressive last night, which is important because at this point the trio probably represents the end of the offense on the depth chart. Benoit Pouliot scored a brilliant goal, Leon sent a stunning pass and of course the line did well in possession. One of the things we need to be aware of with this line is even-strength offense. A year ago, Taylor Hall played most often with Leon Draisaitl and Teddy Purcell. Those three men accounted for 45 goals in 205 games—or 18 per 82 games. Can the current 2line deliver that kind of offense?
  • Maroon—Lander—Puljujarvi contained exactly one sure thing NHL forward in Maroon, who has posted a dandy preseason. Maroon had four shots, Lander was 54 percent on the dot and Puljujarvi added a couple of shots. I am not absolutely certain the Finn makes this team, suspect the organization is leaning that way—confirmation (for me) coming in the Yakupov trade.
  • Slepyshev—Letestu—Kassian struggled in possession and were chasing a lot, I liked Slepyshev’s speed and determination. Kassian got the line’s two shots, Letestu was solid in the faceoff circle but did not generate much in the way of offense. I like Pitlick more than Slepyshev for the Hendricks spot, but it is interesting coach McLellan chose the Russian last night.

OPENING NIGHT ROSTER (A GUESS)

  • Milan Lucic—Connor McDavid—Jordan Eberle
  • Benoit Pouliot—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Leon Draisaitl
  • Patrick Maroon—??????—Jesse Puljujarvi
  • Tyler Pitlick—Mark Letestu—Zack Kassian
  • Extras: Drake Caggiula, Anton Slepyshev
  • Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson
  • Kris Russell—Andrej Sekera
  • Darnell Nurse—Brandon Davidson
  • Extra: Mark Fayne
  • Cam Talbot (Jonas Gustavsson)

This is the same list posted in yesterday’s GDT, and I am still not certain about the ? 3C—but am fairly confident it is not Anton Lander. Why? Speed. Edmonton badly needs more speed on the bottom two forward lines, and there should be a window of opportunity for procurement in these next hours. Perhaps it is Drake Caggiula, time will tell. I should also mention Kris Versteeg, who is not signed and for all we know may never be signed by Edmonton. I wonder what kind of injury has one side or another hesitant to sign a contract.

WAIVERS

It is probably wise to watch the waiver wire this weekend, as Edmonton still has some specific needs (backup goalie, RHD and a Pisani). Among the players currently available who may hold interest for Peter Chiarelli:

  • RC Derek Ryan, Carolina Hurricanes: Bob has mentioned him many times as an option, and Ryan is a pretty good offensive player. The Oilers badly need some offensive punch for that 3line, and maybe Ryan and Caggiula can deliver some this season.
  • L Brad Malone, Washington Capitals. I don’t think the Oilers will take him, but he does fit the Chiarelli template and could slide into the Matt Hendricks role.
  • F Landon Ferraro, St. Louis Blues. He is smaller, but has speed and some skill. Not a fabulous faceoff man, but he has a good range of skills and would be an interesting option.

50-MAN LIST

50-man-oct-9

As we have discussed all summer, the roster remains unbalanced. The addition of Kris Russell may help (Fayne is not just leaving the door open, he apparently took it off the hinges), but the backup goalie, power-play issue (no RH shot) and lack of a Pisani mean this is not a playoff team. There is still time to address that center situation, perhaps Peter Chiarelli can find a Pisani and place him there. Year two of Connor McDavid’s NHL career means finishing outside the playoffs unless the young man goes super nova, and even then the defense and goaltending may let him down. As we reach Thanksgiving weekend, the third line is a mess, now, this day. The only way to fix it? Put Leon at 3C, and that risks having only one scoring line. I think Jesse Puljuarvi makes the team and does it in a feature role. Connor, Jesse and Leon are going to get this team to the playoffs or this team is going to fail. It is on the kids, one. more. time.

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jm363561

Oil2Oilers:
hunter1909,

Hi Hunter I am going to stick with 97-10= 87pts

A merit based opening line up based on the pre-season;
Lucic-McDavid-Eberle
Pouliot-RNH-Versteeg
Maroon-Drai-Caggiula
Pitlick-Letestu-Kassian
Slepyshev
Klefbom-Larsson
Sekera-Russell (by merit of his salary)
Davidson-Benning
Fayne

Nurse in the NHL with Puljujarvi or in Winnipeg for Trouba

Based on the training camp this looks a good roster. But just as Tkachuk, Joensuu, et al flattered to deceive, Caggiula and Benning need time in the AHL to learn and prove their stamina and consistency, and I have never believed that Versteeg can be more than a bottom six depth guy. We have a hole at 3C or 2RW, depending where Drai plays. For RD, too soon to say but Russel might be okay – we wait on Woodguy; if all else fails sign Gryba and play him with St Brandon.

Woodguy

Bruce Wayne: This is flatly untrue, as is proven by the very existence of Fenwick.The possession term has been a misnomer from the beginning and has put back understanding more than any single thing.

Fenwick exists because Matt Fenwick thought that blocking a shot was a positive and should count as a negative to the guys on the ice.

So corsi was possession and Fenwick started down the path towards expected goals/scoring chances.

Woodguy

Bruce Wayne: This is flatly untrue, as is proven by the very existence of Fenwick.The possession term has been a misnomer from the beginning and has put back understanding more than any single thing.

I remember reading Vic’s site and Tore Purdy’s is still up.

It was a proxy for possession.

The whole “a hah!” moment was when Vic found that corsi was highly correlated with zone time (when the NHL still published it)

Cassandra

spoiler:
ashley,

All Corsi originally was attempting to do was provide a proxy for possession stats.Where was the puck during the game?Mostly in your end, or mostly in the oppositions.

This is flatly untrue, as is proven by the very existence of Fenwick. The possession term has been a misnomer from the beginning and has put back understanding more than any single thing.

Woodguy

russ99,

PDO also drives me crazy, as there are so many factors that can go into scoring and save percentage, and most teams end up either well above or well below 100%, so that balance point where PDO can tell us something doesn’t really exist.

This is incorrect and was shown to be incorrect years ago.

Teams cluster around 100 (as do players over time) with most outliers being SV% which can be directly attributed to one or two players.

Here’s team PDO from the last 3 years:

15/16
Team PDO
NYR 102.44
FLA 102.07
WSH 101.22
OTT 101.2
T.B 100.88
ARI 100.75
MIN 100.7
NYI 100.68
PIT 100.59
COL 100.51
PHI 100.43
STL 100.17
BOS 100.05
S.J 100
CBJ 99.79
L.A 99.72
DAL 99.7
N.J 99.66
DET 99.64
WPG 99.64
CHI 99.57
NSH 99.47
VAN 99.36
CGY 99.33
MTL 99.27
BUF 99.08
ANA 99.03
EDM 98.59
CAR 98.34
TOR 98.29

14/15
Team PDO
NYR 101.92
MTL 101.56
COL 101.36
CGY 101.15
NSH 101.14
OTT 101.04
T.B 100.97
N.J 100.7
WPG 100.7
STL 100.49
WSH 100.49
CHI 100.38
PHI 100.31
MIN 100.24
ANA 100.23
L.A 100.16
BOS 100.03
PIT 100.02
DET 99.93
CBJ 99.75
DAL 99.7
FLA 99.59
BUF 99.49
VAN 99.39
TOR 99.35
NYI 99.3
S.J 99.05
EDM 97.29
ARI 97.2
CAR 97.11

13/14
Team PDO
BOS 102.46
ANA 102.32
COL 101.75
TOR 101.2
MIN 101.13
CBJ 100.74
STL 100.65
MTL 100.54
T.B 100.53
PHI 100.27
DAL 100.26
ARI 100.25
DET 100.21
WSH 100.16
L.A 100.11
PIT 100.06
CHI 99.91
NYR 99.74
S.J 99.7
OTT 99.53
VAN 99.5
CAR 99.42
WPG 99.38
EDM 99.08
NSH 98.97
CGY 98.75
N.J 98.59
NYI 98.4
FLA 98.2
BUF 98.17

12/13
Team PDO
TOR 102.99
PIT 102.82
CHI 102.03
ANA 101.72
CBJ 101.63
WSH 101.41
DAL 101.29
T.B 101.23
MTL 101.03
NYR 100.92
BUF 100.65
EDM 100.6
VAN 100.59
BOS 100.51
ARI 100.34
DET 100.19
WPG 99.57
OTT 99.55
NSH 99.54
S.J 99.51
STL 99.25
L.A 99.07
PHI 99.03
NYI 98.95
MIN 98.81
COL 98.49
CAR 98.41
N.J 97.51
CGY 97.33
FLA 96.09

Every shot is a save or a goal.

So league wide PDO is 100.

Its not something to “believe” or “disbelieve”

It just is.

spoiler

ashley,

All Corsi originally was attempting to do was provide a proxy for possession stats. Where was the puck during the game? Mostly in your end, or mostly in the oppositions?

There was no attempt, by the serious Statsies, to stretch that measure from quantitative to qualitative. Ie., what was happening when the puck was in that end of the ice?

However, that isn’t to say there wasn’t desire within the Stats community to see if a meaningful measure of a player’s ability to affect possession and subsequent scoring, for and against couldn’t be derived.

For that work to be attempted and refined and tested etc, first there needs to be conversations. And an acknowledgement that these discussions and theories are a process.

And we should all know–by now– there’s danger in (a) small sample sizes, in (b) inability to control for variables like coaching systems, unknown injuries etc, and (c) there’s always a danger when applying general data to a specific player. These dangers will never go away.

JD_Wry
Woodguy

ashley,

Ricki was heavily critisized for attributing SV% to Dmen.

That still stands today.

Even the best “box-protection” Dmen can barely move the needle on SV%

What they can do is effect the volume of the most dangerous shots, but the goalie still needs to save the puck

Woodguy

OmJo:
Woodguy,

I think Sekera is good enough to overcome whatever negative effect Russell may bring. May even help Russell in the same way he does Fayne with more time.

Russell significantly impaired the results of:

Hamilton
Wideman
Demers
Goligoski

last year.

It’s best not to have a drag on the 2nd pair.

It’s way too important.

LadiesloveSmid

Dylan Wells at .933 through 5 games

JD_Wry

Gerta Rauss: I’ve been reluctant to enable ad-blocking of any kind but it may come to that shortly

It’s a must-have for some of those sketchy hockey streaming sites, and I leave it enabled for most other sites now too. uBlock works well and is easy to disable for sites you don’t want it blocking.

Youtube doesn’t fool around when they notice you’re blocking. It’s as if they transfer all of your streaming requests to the server on the 14.4 kbps modem – pauses and buffer wheels is all you get.

RedNed

Hunter – please put me down for 84 points. Would’ve been higher except oilers.

Re Vancouver game. I liked Russel. Did he play on the right side for periods of time, or was that just my eyes seeing that?

stush18

Gerta Rauss:
stush18,

I’ve been having problems for several weeks(Surface 3)-I’m running Win10 with 3 different browsers…Chrome, Firefox and Edge..I have problems with all 3.

I also have problems at work(PC)with Win 7 and IE and Firefox…various issues with pages loading and hanging, but primarily “a script has stopped working”

With that said however, I also have problems with Oilersnation, so it’s always pointed back to my PC/tablet and not necessarily the site(s)

The iPhone has always had problems here-apparently the Puffin browser solves the problems(free from iTunes)

Thanks everyone. I’ll try downloading puffin.

I’ll be honest you’re all speaking Greek to me (or danish? Lol).

I’m 23 and I’m very technologically inept. If I was born twenty years sooner I woulda fit right in. Things like math or electrical come easy, but put a keyboard in front of me and I look like a fish trying to climb a tree.

Took a coding course in university. Jesus Murphy was that an adventure.

Gerta Rauss

JDï™,

Yeah, thanks

I noticed that the “script stopped working” issue was less frequent lately as well

I’ve been reluctant to enable ad-blocking of any kind but it may come to that shortly

Pescador

kinger_OIL: – Yup!And neither of us have hubris!

I have a rather large hubris,
just don’t know how to use it. ?

JD_Wry

Gerta Rauss: various issues with pages loading and hanging, but primarily “a script has stopped working”

I was having those problems too (edit on Win7) – ON wasn’t bearable. I then set my Firefox browser to ask to activate Shockwave Flash add-on whenever a site requests it, instead of just loading it automatically. Denying it to load on ON and some other sites, cleared everything up, but caused a problem for video on sportsnet.ca.

I lived with that for a while, and then had to enable Shockwave for something and forgot about it. It seems that it’s working now – must have been the pile of updates I did recently.

I’ve also started using uBlock, which is a great ad blocking plugin. This could also be helping.

Of course, I disable uBlock for LT’s site.

Gerta Rauss

stush18,

I’ve been having problems for several weeks(Surface 3)-I’m running Win10 with 3 different browsers…Chrome, Firefox and Edge..I have problems with all 3.

I also have problems at work(PC)with Win 7 and IE and Firefox…various issues with pages loading and hanging, but primarily “a script has stopped working”

With that said however, I also have problems with Oilersnation, so it’s always pointed back to my PC/tablet and not necessarily the site(s)

The iPhone has always had problems here-apparently the Puffin browser solves the problems(free from iTunes)

Das Zuke

Zelepukin,

I am probably judging Lucic a bit prematurely….. give him and Eberle 15-20 games and things should be clicking in high gear. Watching the pre season games and seeing how many times McDavid is setting up linemates one come away with the impression that McDavid should be getting 3-5 points per game …which if course is an unrealistic expectation….however my 120 pts for McDavid this season (1.5 pts / game over 82 games) I believe is attainable.

Zelepukin

Das Zuke: know it is early, and most will not agree with this thought but I am thinking Lucic is too slow for McDavid both in skating and in handling his sublime passes. I would really like to see how either Pouliot or even Maroon (who slimmed down in the off season and is now faster) looked with McDavid . Both of these men can also provide a degree of physicality to that line and more finesse with the puck than Lucic ( i.e. Pouliot’s goal tonight was a beauty …I do not see Lucic potting that goal with the same opportunity)
I am still quite optimistic that with the return of Davidson (exit Fayne), Cags for 3rd line centre (bye bye Lander) and Hendricks for the PK the Oilers will be playoff bound (excluding any significant injuries)

It’s going to be interesting to see how either Lucic/Ebs play themselves off of McD’s line. As long as both of them can create space for McD by driving the net, make the breakout pass and more importantly, learning to keep their damn sticks on the ice and tap in all these impossible passes, then there will be no reason to switch up the lines.

Frank the dog

stush18: Might have to try the site on a different browser. Funny thing is I’ve always used chrome on this phone, so I’m bout sure why these issues are popping up. Also my spelling and thoughts are all over the place because I can’t see what I’m writing.

I’m using a Lumia phone running W10 and an Edge browser, basically an enhanced rt OS. No problems here.

stush18

JDï™: Well maybe there’s something in Chrome now that doesn’t like this site, but I remember others complaining about Sufferari in the past.

I can tell you that it works fine on a Windows 8.1 phone with IE, if that helps.

Might have to try the site on a different browser. Funny thing is I’ve always used chrome on this phone, so I’m bout sure why these issues are popping up. Also my spelling and thoughts are all over the place because I can’t see what I’m writing.

Das Zuke

Posted this late last night well after attending the game and was looking for some opinions on both Lucic comments and McDavid points this season …. despite the final score I saw a much improved Oiler team for most of the game (yes the third period was not as intense).
First I would like to give praise to the new arena… lots to like – better sight lines, amazing score clock, like the option of wider seats (which I am thankful I chose to purchase), better food options and wider corridors (no longer squashed like a sardine). My seats are located in the upper bowl and I was expecting to be somewhat disappointed ( heard a few negative reports that the upper bowl is so much inferior in quality and service…. not even as good as the old Rexall ) but was very pleased with what I found.
Back to the game. Many eyes were on the new guy Russell. Considering he had no pre season games, not familiar with his defence partner(s) / teammates or the arena ice, I thought he had a solid game and will help the Oilers be a better team. He by no means was perfect but his passing and hockey sense showed a lot of promise. Next to McDavid, Pouliot stood out with a real solid game closely followed by of all players Kassian (really) …I was impressed by Kassian’s intensity on most shifts, he hit, back checked, fore checked and even killed penalties (easily his best outing and displaying what the Oilers need to see from him …. I hope he can keep it up) Nuge also had a very consistent game and should have a very good year.
It has already been said, but worth repeating Nurse and Fayne together spells DEFEAT …they were the cause of the last two goals and Fayne in particular started the game okay but as it wore on became a real liability when on the ice. It makes me think they should reconsider signing Gryba for insurance as I believe Fayne’s time on this team will be short lived (definitely gone at the trade deadline if not sooner). Other than pairing up with Sekera (which seems to work ok) he does not match up well with anyone else on the defence. Unfortunately or fortunately, depending on your viewpoint the Finnish wonderkid needs to go to Bakersfield and work on his game ( he needs to get comfortable with the smaller ice surface, faster pace of game and even the English language which can all be worked on in the AHL) Nurse was hot and cold … not too sure how much of this was due to Fayne being his partner but we can use this excuse for for now.

I know it is early, and most will not agree with this thought but I am thinking Lucic is too slow for McDavid both in skating and in handling his sublime passes. I would really like to see how either Pouliot or even Maroon (who slimmed down in the off season and is now faster) looked with McDavid . Both of these men can also provide a degree of physicality to that line and more finesse with the puck than Lucic ( i.e. Pouliot’s goal tonight was a beauty …I do not see Lucic potting that goal with the same opportunity)
I am still quite optimistic that with the return of Davidson (exit Fayne), Cags for 3rd line centre (bye bye Lander) and Hendricks for the PK the Oilers will be playoff bound (excluding any significant injuries)
One more thing … while there is no official posted contest but I am predicting McDavid gets 120 points this year and wins the scoring title … any other guesses as to how many points McDavid gets?

so polar

speeds: He doesn’t burn an ELC year if he’s in the AHL all year.

Had misinterpreted the slide rule, thinking it only applied if Puljujarvi went back to Liiga. Thanks for the correction. For anyone interested, here’s capfriendly:

If a player who is signed to an entry-level contract and is 18 or 19 years of age (as of September 15 of the signing year), does not play in a minimum of 10 NHL games (including both regular season and playoffs; AHL games do not count), their contract is considered to ‘slide’, or extend, by one year.

Explains why Bennett’s first year counted against his ELC as well.

Frank the dog

godot10:
The problem with Fayne is sort of like the problem with Reinhart in that McLellan seems to want to play him with the wrong partner.

McLellan keeps putting Reinhart with Gryba, and that is just setting up Reinhart to fail.To steal from the our resident “bear”,Reinhart’s strength is box protection, but he needs to play with a mobile puck mover so he can play to that strength and simplify his decision making.

Reinhart is good at defending when he doesn’t have to think too much.

That might be correct during the season when points count. Better hockey minds than me have pointed out that the pre-season is to evaluate players and combinations of players. Even last night I believe the third period was for trying certan players out for a final chance.

sliderule

Is anyone concerned that in a game were they dominated possesion the oiler defence had 11 giveaways compared to Canucks three.

It is a concern for me.

Spengler

kinger_OIL: – Yup!And neither of us have hubris!

I’m keeping mine locked up; to be used only at the appropriate time. Much like a certain long promised picture…

Professor Q

Does anyone else notice/think that Puljuj’s helmet is too small, or fits oddly?

kinger_OIL

Spengler:
kinger_OIL,

I believe we said the same thing in different ways!

– Yup! And neither of us have hubris!

JD_Wry

commonfan14: smaller skilled player like Weal.

Did he suffer through injuries last year? Listed as only playing 14 games, unless some data has been missed by hockeydb: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=110234

Cassandra

ashley: And you give a good example of the point I’m trying to make.

To wit: The best reason that advanced stats are not readily embraced by the pros is that the little guys are fighting a 100 year old institution.

Why do you think this is correct?Why are you so sure?Could there be another explanation for this poor reception?

You act as if this play hasn’t already been written. The exact same thing happened in baseball 30 years ago. Hockey has followed the script line by line, even to the point where there have always been “old guards” who were crypto-new-guards, and whose success stemmed, in large part, from the fact that they did things differently from the old guard, the chief characteristic of which is not simply the inability to change, but a deeply embedded misunderstanding of what leads to success.

In baseball, it was Branch Rickey and, to a lesser extent, Earl Weaver. Pick your hockey examples (I’ll go with Roger Nielsen and Bowman), but the pattern is identical. Now every team in baseball operates under almost the same principles, and what separates them isn’t old school vs. new school, but good at new school or bad at new school. The same thing will happen in hockey. It is written in the stars.

Frank the dog

John Chambers:
You know what would’ve been awesome? If Jason Demers was as psyched about playing in the new rink with Connor as much as Lucic was in late June.

LT could’ve put up the Balance photo on July 1st.

On another note my guess is that Fayne goes to the minors, and amazingly the Edmonton Oilers spend TEN MILLION US DOLLARS on Ference, Fayne, and Russell this year. Yuck.

Fwiw /iirc, I think it was between Larsson and Demers. From what I read, Diners wanted to come here. But Chia wanted Larsson more than Demers but, again, didn’t want to give up Hall unless he could secure Lucic.
The moment Lucic committed, he pulled the plug on Demers and traded Hall out.
I’m sure most would have preferred Hall and Demers but I’m good with Lucic and Larsson.

speeds

so polar: Puljujarvi will burn the first year of his ELC whether he plays in Edmonton or Bakersfield. Unsure about the injury’s effect; Sam Bennett played only 1 game his rookie year and was docked the year from his ELC, although the 11 playoff games may be the cause, here.

He doesn’t burn an ELC year if he’s in the AHL all year.

Richard S.S.

The Defense, with what is left, should do all right. Mark Fayne is an NHL RD who needs an experienced partner to succeed. As such, he carries too big a Cap Hit for a 7th Defenseman. He should never play first pairing. Matthew Benning is a very good RD who is very close to making the Team. He may need AHL time to refine his game, but he’s still very close. Griffin Reinhart may or may not be an NHL D, but apparently he failed to work on his issues during the offseason. At present he’s still an option on D. How much longer will he be the option depends on how fast other are moving up.

Cassandra

The idea that NHL teams are the “institutional investor” in this analogy is pretty funny.

Now, it is true that they should be, but it is pretty clear that they don’t understand the “amateur” numbers let alone are ahead of the curve developing or advancing knowledge.

Of course, NHL teams have hired a good number of “amateurs” in the past few years, so those amateurs may be developing things we don’t know about. However, if they do, that is evidence in favour of the amateurs. Though, from what I can tell, NHL teams mostly ignore the people they hire and then fire them for not being useful.

commonfan29

John Chambers: Oh for sure. He’s the Weal Deal!

Hopefully they feel they’re big enough now to accommodate a smaller skilled player like Weal.

I mean, a Maroon-Drai-Weal line is still plenty big.

ashley

Jethro Tull:
Is there a glitch in the matrix? I feel as if I’ve read this thread 90 times already.

Ashley, the best reason fancy stats haven’t been fully embraced is because they are fighting a hundred years of “seen him good” bias. It’s a marathon, not a sprint. When the first team to win a Stanley acknowledges that the fancies played an integral part of their success, then you’ll see the transition pick up steam.

And to be honest, those at the forefront of the stats revolution haven’t used Corsi for anything meaningful for a while.

And you give a good example of the point I’m trying to make.

To wit: The best reason that advanced stats are not readily embraced by the pros is that the little guys are fighting a 100 year old institution.

Why do you think this is correct? Why are you so sure? Could there be another explanation for this poor reception?

JD_Wry

DocFan: Oilers go 80-0-2.

You mean 162?

Picturesque

so polar: Puljujarvi will burn the first year of his ELC whether he plays in Edmonton or Bakersfield. Unsure about the injury’s effect; Sam Bennett played only 1 game his rookie year and was docked the year from his ELC, although the 11 playoff games may be the cause, here.

Was that because Puljujarvi played last year in Sweden? I forgot that burning a year off ELC only applies to those who played in junior last year – thanks for the reminder!

Woogie63

NFL viewership is down here is at least one reason why,

4th quarter, Patriots v. Browns

42 minutes to play the quarter
15 minutes of football
3 minutes and 15 seconds of whistle to whistle actual play time
9 points

John Chambers

adamjames:
I seem to recall that Weal’s name was speculated as the sweetener for taking Mike Richards from LA prior to the infamous border crossing. Edm was in there like a dirty shirt. Maybe a little bit of interest in Weal ?

Oh for sure. He’s the Weal Deal!

DocFan

Hunter,

Please put me down for 164 points.
Oilers go 80-0-2.

This is the only way I can survive this team – with utter optimism.
Also, sort of the reverse 1 dollar bid popular on the price is right.

Thanks!

Richard S.S.

The Defence with Nurse and Davidson will be fun to watch, and could develop exceptionally well as they are reasonably well matched for each other. I suspect that while both might individually function okay as top pairing, neither should ever be considered as more than quality second pairings material.

Jethro Tull

Is there a glitch in the matrix? I feel as if I’ve read this thread 90 times already.

Ashley, the best reason fancy stats haven’t been fully embraced is because they are fighting a hundred years of “seen him good” bias. It’s a marathon, not a sprint. When the first team to win a Stanley acknowledges that the fancies played an integral part of their success, then you’ll see the transition pick up steam.

And to be honest, those at the forefront of the stats revolution haven’t used Corsi for anything meaningful for a while.

Spengler

kinger_OIL,

I believe we said the same thing in different ways!

Dino

I think analytics are great and they allow us to push the conversation forward when it comes to hockey. I think they are a good indicator of useful players and they let us see the hidden facets of someone’s game that is often missed with the simple “eye test”. However I don’t think they’re 100% accurate and indicative of a player’s efficiency all the time.

For example, Reinhart played a very slow and terrible game on Thursday night. He played himself right off the team that evening and yet he won the analytics battle. He had the best corsi on the entire team that night. If Reinhart played 82 identical games he would be considered a corsi God on paper but on the ice he was a turnover machine constantly getting walked every shift. Then again last night Nurse and Fayne had the best analytics of last nights game but on the ice they were chaos, couldn’t make a pass to save their lives and kept losing battles along the boards. I would directly fault that pair on the GWG.

This all goes to show that although analytics can be a useful tool of player evaluation, sometimes it doesn’t tell the full story. I also think players can have better or worse analytic results depending on the systems that a coach implements on his team. A good example of this would be Patrick Roy’s Avs team. A team full of good players that had the worst analytics in the league.

So many people were quick to discredit Russell as a player because of some numbers, without even giving him a chance to prove his worth on the ice. I think that is wrong and unfair. Kris Russell actually had decent numbers in Columbus but his numbers faltered in Calgary and during Dallas’s playoffs. Could it be the systems don’t compliment his player style? Only time will tell. All I know is he’s an NHL calibre defenseman and it certainly doesn’t hurt to have depth in that role.

Richard S.S.

The Defense with Sekera and Russell as Second Pair will be a work in progress, but both are quality NHL Defenseman in their own right. I think this will be a good pairing, but results will get better as games played together increase. Sekera can play up if necessary due to injury and should be fine with either Klefbom or Larsson as pairing.

Spengler

One thing that occurs to me is that we don’t know what teams are measuring. We can assume that it is the same things that are being analyzed by the bloggers and mathematical glitterati assembled here and elsewhere but there is a reason that analysts who’ve been hired by teams have to take their sites down and that Fellowship, whilst no longer a member of the team hasn’t piped up with a long list of what the Oilers in particular are working on. We can speculate, and evaluate the evidence of repeated failures to say it doesn’t appear to be working, but we can’t know for certain that they’re even looking at the same things we are.
Oh for sure.I didn’t mean to imply that the current advanced analysis had no value.Only that we would do well to accept that there are very likely limitations in what it tells us about players in the present, not just in hindsight.