SEE THE SKY ABOUT TO RAIN

by Lowetide

Back in the summer, we talked about balance. I had a monster shopping list (kind of got carried away, gotta say) that was divided into categories based on need. It was called See the Sky About to Rain.

THE CHIARELLI LIST

  1. Top-pairing RHD (Adam Larsson)
  2. Second-pairing RHD (Kris Russell, a lefty)
  3. Acquire RHC with some skill (tried for Kris Versteeg)
  4. Backup goalie (Jonas Gustavsson)
  5. Add a “Pisani” (Tyler Pitlick might be an inside answer)
  6. Re-stock the shelves via the draft (Puljujarvi, Benson, others in a good draft)
  7. Improve overall team speed (Puljujarvi, but still a concern)
  8. Offload Lauri Korpikoski (done)
  9. Improve goaltending depth (added Nick Ellis)
  10. Improve AHL quality (Caggiula, Russell, Ellis, Benning)
  11. Cull the LHD herd (added, but also brought in righties like Larsson and Benning)
  12. Rob the World of something

Very few of his solutions were ideal and many appeared unsatisfactory—still others did not reveal themselves until preseason and could be categorized as luck. Adam Larsson is a good NHL defenseman, we agreed as soon as the trade was made, but holy hell folks the price was searing. If Steve Tambellini or Craig MacTavish had made the trade, God knows what vehicle would have been parked (and who knows what would have been on the sign!) on Kingsway!

I remember when the team re-signed Tyler Pitlick, it seemed rather curious to me. Iiro Pakarinen had taken the job Pitlick would have been applying for and no one could have blamed the young man for trying to find his way with another organization. Loyalty counts for something and he signed another one-year deal. It appears to have finally clicked, although early days. Pitlick always looked like a player to me, reflected in this from fall 2012:

  • Pitlick is a shooter, and despite the wasteland that is his score sheet continues to rip it. So far in his pro career, Pitlick has 156 shots and 7 goals. That’s 4.49%, which is piss poor. How much of that is luck? No clue. However, I think its a reasonable bet that he’ll improve that number as he matures. Pitlick is still a kid, he has time. Source

That was four years ago, and it is amazing he is still here. In a world where struggling prospects normally get flushed in the minutes after their entry-level deals expire, this is Pitlick’s sixth season with the Edmonton organization. How much credit do we give Peter Chiarelli and his crew for continuing the patient approach? To the victor goes the spoils.

OILERS FORWARDS, AFTER FIVE GAMES

oilers-forwards-numbers-oct-22

  • This is sorted by HD scoring chances (all numbers via NaturalStatTrick) and for me there is some very interesting information here.
  • The Lucic—McDavid—Eberle line is flying high above everything, the Oilers are a different team when the line is on the ice.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins does poorly by Corsi for 5×5 percentage, saws off in scoring chances and is strong in high-danger scoring chances. My assumption (note: not a math expert) is that these things will normalize once we reach 20 games (these numbers above are too early to trust) but it is a fascinating look at one player’s first five games.
  • Anton Slepyshev may fall out of the lineup tomorrow in Winnipeg but his numbers are excellent. He has played well with Patrick Maroon and Leon Draisaitl, and that line should get another shot.
  • Anton Lander was missed, he is 39.13 Corsi, 33.33 Scoring Chances and 5-4 in high-danger scoring chances. As is the case with the Nuge, his HD SC number is out of time with the possession numbers.

I think this gap in the numbers will find its way, and the Oilers record will too. I remain convinced that:

  • Hall for Larsson was an overpay
  • Jonas Gustavsson is not satisfactory as a backup goalie
  • Kris Russell was not a strong solution to the RHD puck-moving issue
  • Tyler Pitlick makes for a wobbly Pisani (although I cheer for him)
  • The RHC situation (now a RW situation) is too thin to last.

You know what? I sound like a loose cannon on a morning when the team sits at 4-1-0. No one is going to listen, but the Oilers as a team are running good luck and an easier schedule and no one wants to hear it. Old man yells at cloud! Will this Oilers team pull up the possession numbers and find a way to fix the PP without a RH shot as a hammer? Will the goaltending (Talbot) hold up? Will Pitlick have a shooting percentage run for the ages?

We wait.

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Cassandra

Georges,

This is a reasonable hypothesis. Indeed, I’m pretty sure you are going to find what you want to find. An AHL team that played an NHL schedule will have a low PDO, I expect.

The problem is that this is post facto analysis (i.e. cherry picking). In any present analysis you have no way of knowing in advance which of these teams are historically great on the basis of their PDO, if all you know is their PDO. Thus using PDO as evidence of excellence is a classic case of question begging (in the precise sense of the term). This is the mistake Ricky makes over and over again.

Greg Maddux had historically low BABIP pretty much his whole career, however you can’t pick Greg Maddux out of a lineup on the basis of his BABIP because there are lots of guys who temporarily have low BABIIP without being Greg Maddux.

The other issue, is that if the Oilers outscore their Corsi, or shots, or whatever, it is almost certainly do to McDavid. Which means we can’t credit the change to Chiarelli, or mistake McDavid’s once in a lifetime ability by giving Larsson magical shot quality supression abilities.

Woodguy

Georges: Hi WG. G posted a link to the Steve Burtch article on meaningful NHL stats a few days back. Burtch found zero year-to-year correlation for PDO at the team level. I’m assuming this forms (at least part of) the basis for viewing PDO as random or luck-driven and not a sustainable quality of teams.

Just for fun, I’m going to take the position that PDO isn’t random and does capture the skill level of a team.

If all teams have the same skill level then each team’s PDO in a given year will be drawn from a common league-wide distribution. In this case, a team has a 50/50 chance of being above or below the PDO median and its PDO performance in this year is independent of its PDO performance in the previous year. This would lead to a low year-to-year correlation of PDO.

If, on the other hand, some teams have more or less skill than the typical NHL team, then their PDO performance in a given year will be drawn from their distinct PDO distribution. In this case, more (less) skilled teams will be more likely to consistently outperform (underperform) median PDO. Note that this could also lead to a low year-to-year correlation for PDO, so long as it’s only a small number of teams that are more/less skilled than the typical team.

So, if I’m right, I should be able to pick some historical teams with really skilled/talented players that consistently outperformed PDO (or just Sh% or Sv%). I’ll of course go with any team that had Gretzky, Lemieux, or the young Jagr. I’ll go with Hasek and Roy and Brodeur. Forsberg and Sakic (and Hejduk and Tanguay). Early Yzerman. Hull and Oates?? Selanne and Kariya’s (and Getzlaf and Perry’s) Ducks. Crosby (and Malkin) and Ovechkin. Stamkos. Price, Luongo, and Lundqvist. Kiprusoff’s run in Calgary. The Sedins. Alfredsson’s Senators.

I’m also going to bet against low talent expansion teams and say they had consistently bad PDO (or just Sh% or Sv% if they somehow managed to get talent on one side early).

I’m cherry picking, because it’s easy to see who had talent looking back. Those players outperformed by definition. And I’ve mostly avoided naming offensive players from possession teams like the Wings, Hawks, Devils, and Kings.

As far as the right now, if I’m going by my theory, I’m also going to bet on the McDavid Oilers to sustain on PDO. He’s a great player, and I think that’s the effect that great players have on percentage stats.

I look forward to your analysis.

When you look at a whole population like Burtch and others do, there is no meaningful correlations, but I agree that some teams, especially the ones with high end goalies can sustain above 100.

Woodguy

Chaos Magian:
JustWatt,
http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-pdo-numbers-save-plus-shooting-percentage/2016/
—–

Lowetide or others. Any chance Chia is hoping Shattenkirk or Burns make it to UFA next year?
—–

Woodguy or Analytics Folks. Do you know if anyone has looked at using time range from shot data. Currently Corsi is just a count but if a time range was added it seems we’d have a better idea of possession.Eg. There was 4 SA and no SF in two minutes you are most likely getting hemmed in you own zone for that period of time.

Yes, xGF and *I think* DFF takes into account time of shots.

I think its a shot within 3 seconds of another shot is considered a rebound and given a higher danger rating.

Dee Dee

There are alot of different ways to celebrate being fans of this @#%#@$%ing hockey team.

If number crunching weird stats is your thing, then awesome, crunch away.

If analyzing styles and trying to determine if trades were lost or won is your thing then go for it.

Stating a hypothesis or opinion is a way to start a dialogue. Rebutting or refuting an opinion with another opinion is good to keep conversations flowing.

The problem as I see it lately is that some folks are starting to attack other posters with some rather vicious name calling as opposed to refuting ideas.

The passage of time will reveal all truths. By the end of the year we will be able to determine how bad of a win or loss the Hall trade was. Until then, quoting the Dude, “That’s just like, your opinion, man”.

I’ve been a fan of this team since their very first game and I’ve often thought that God has cursed us for the success in the 80’s and decided to make us pay by giving us some of the crappiest hockey ever played in the last 10 years.

I know that First Overall draft picks aren’t magic unicorns that have been sprinkled with magic pixie dust and should be locked away never to be traded, unless I guess, for another First Overall.

First Overall gets you a better contract on your first contract, that’s it. They are regular players 98% of the time.

It was pretty clear to me that Yak still has some skills, he showed it in his first game back after being traded to St Louis, he was noticeable on the ice. Which makes it clear he was dogging it here, feel sorry for the guy, wish him the best. If he had played that well here he would have been on the first line. Nice to see him smiling again.

Sad that the Oilers had so many First Overalls that he got buried in the pile.

Lefty Righty defence? I suppose it makes a difference, all other things being equal. I’ll still take Russell over Schultz as an upgrade every time. They played hockey for 100 years without giving a crap so I don’t really understand why that has to trump all other factors these days.

The last 10 years of Oilers hockey reminds me of Shawshank Redemption and I felt like I was crawling through a pipe full of shit for 10 years. That does tend to affect you, and probably one of the reasons we are all a little paranoid and waiting for the wheels to fall off. But we did get McDavid, which might have made it worthwhile.

But I just watched this team beat St Louis, FREAKING ST LOUIS, at their own game. They didn’t get beat up and end up with sand kicked in their faces and their girlfriends stolen. They didn’t collapse into a defensive shell and ice the puck 1,000 times and lose it.

Lucic was the best player who wasn’t a goalie on the ice. He beat out McDavid for a star, and I started to get a weird feeling the last few minutes of the game. It wasn’t that soul sucking sphincter tightening fear and revulsion that I usually felt during the end of an Oilers game, it made me feel warm and happy, it’s been so long, could it be pride?

4-1 to start the season, with 2 WINS AGAINST FREAKING CALGARY.

So, excuse me, I’m just going to revel in the moment and enjoy the fact that the Oilers are not in their usual position at the bottom of the league and enjoy what it feels like to win for a change.

And I’ll let tomorrow worry about itself. Maybe the wheels will fall off, or maybe, they won’t.

Bank Shot

I think it’s a foregone conclusion that the Oilers will fall back from 2nd in the NHL. I still think they probably don’t make the playoffs but a door is definitely open for then this season.

I like that we are discussing if the Oilers current success is a fluke rather than championing an improved corsi and another 0-4 start like the last three seasons.

Georges

Woodguy: I’ve looked at PDO sustainability in the past and iirc the only it sustains is with elite goalering.

Luongo, Price and Lunqvist can do it for a team.

The only team I saw with above average sh% that stayed there for more than 2 years was ANA.

A high sh% is usually not sustainable over multiple seasons, whereas SV% can be.

Hi WG. G posted a link to the Steve Burtch article on meaningful NHL stats a few days back. Burtch found zero year-to-year correlation for PDO at the team level. I’m assuming this forms (at least part of) the basis for viewing PDO as random or luck-driven and not a sustainable quality of teams.

Just for fun, I’m going to take the position that PDO isn’t random and does capture the skill level of a team.

If all teams have the same skill level then each team’s PDO in a given year will be drawn from a common league-wide distribution. In this case, a team has a 50/50 chance of being above or below the PDO median and its PDO performance in this year is independent of its PDO performance in the previous year. This would lead to a low year-to-year correlation of PDO.

If, on the other hand, some teams have more or less skill than the typical NHL team, then their PDO performance in a given year will be drawn from their distinct PDO distribution. In this case, more (less) skilled teams will be more likely to consistently outperform (underperform) median PDO. Note that this could also lead to a low year-to-year correlation for PDO, so long as it’s only a small number of teams that are more/less skilled than the typical team.

So, if I’m right, I should be able to pick some historical teams with really skilled/talented players that consistently outperformed PDO (or just Sh% or Sv%). I’ll of course go with any team that had Gretzky, Lemieux, or the young Jagr. I’ll go with Hasek and Roy and Brodeur. Forsberg and Sakic (and Hejduk and Tanguay). Early Yzerman. Hull and Oates?? Selanne and Kariya’s (and Getzlaf and Perry’s) Ducks. Crosby (and Malkin) and Ovechkin. Stamkos. Price, Luongo, and Lundqvist. Kiprusoff’s run in Calgary. The Sedins. Alfredsson’s Senators.

I’m also going to bet against low talent expansion teams and say they had consistently bad PDO (or just Sh% or Sv% if they somehow managed to get talent on one side early).

I’m cherry picking, because it’s easy to see who had talent looking back. Those players outperformed by definition. And I’ve mostly avoided naming offensive players from possession teams like the Wings, Hawks, Devils, and Kings.

As far as the right now, if I’m going by my theory, I’m also going to bet on the McDavid Oilers to sustain on PDO. He’s a great player, and I think that’s the effect that great players have on percentage stats.

Slocanoil

Centre of attention,

Looked at about 10 sites.
No tv, 15 min I’ll never get back!

Centre of attention

Professor Q: What?

It was only for the third period of the old-timers Heritage Classic game, and the first round pick was for the next heritage classic.

It was just a gimmick 😛

Professor Q

Centre of attention:
The Oilers just traded Lidstrom to the Jets for a first round pick.

What.

What?

Centre of attention

The Oilers just traded Lidstrom to the Jets for a first round pick.

What.

jake70

So #14 scored a nice goal with a nice pass from #14

Gret99zky

Frank the dog:
Does anybody else think the Oil are in danger of a repeat Buffalo type game?
Who do we have that can successfully fight big buff as he skates around wreaking havoc on our players?
Who will get injured this time?
Who thinks we can sustain winning when at least 1 player gets injured every game?

Brace yourselves, injuries are coming. The NHL season is dark and full of terrors.

Richard S.S.

In all sports there are a certain number of games, that no matter what a Team does, they will always lose. In all sports there are a certain number of games, that no matter what a Team does, they will always win. The remaining games determine how a Team finishes and those are controllable.

Thus far, the Oilers are 4-1 in controllable games. The Buffalo game was winnable if they played like they did verses Calgary. They just have to learn days off occur when Hockey’s over and stay ready to play until then.

Bag of Pucks

While Russell and Gustavsson may not be the ideal solutions, they are vets on short contracts. Given that Chiarelli likely sees the longterm solutions to those roster spots coming from the farm, he has to get some marks for decent cap & roster management in the interim, no?

Oil2Oilers

They should smuggle McDavid out with his rocket skates in a Tikkanen sweater just to show the speed contrast.

Professor Q

Reptile Charlie:
These guys are much slower than I remember.

(Except Selane)

He’s surprisingly pretty slow, though.

Professor Q

Why was Tikkanen’s goal called off?

John Chambers

YKOil,

One thing we didn’t see happen this summer was teams take on real salary in exchange for draft picks.

Now, Arizona traded for the insured contracts of Datsyuk and Bolland, earning Lawson Crouse and draft picks in the process, but it didn’t appear that teams were willing to take on real salary, in our case Korpikoski or Fayne.

But you’re right -Chiarelli could’ve at the very least framed the notion that there were Hall for (Trouba, Barrie, or Faulk) offers that demanded that it was going to take a 2nd rounder to win the bid for Hall.

Admiral Ackbar

http://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/17816613/espn-magazine-2016-ultimate-standings

Oh my, this is disappointing but adds validity to those complaining about the Oilers Franchise. Only the Canucks and Leafs rate worse for NHL teams and the Oilers are compared with the likes of the San Francisco 49ers and the Detroit Lions franchises. Yikes.

I’ll never stop loving the Oilers, but this is alarming.

Chaos Magician

Ancient Oilers Fan,

My read there is they faced Yaks line. He registered 1 shot in the game and not against them. The shots all came from Berglund and Jaskin. Their forwards were mostly Maroon, Drai, Slepy. They may have been targeting the right side or both teams were weak on the right side.

Revolved

Derek,

Woodguy,

I agree that I have been concerned with the wins racking up despite poor possession numbers, but I think Derek is bang on. The site Puckonnet.net has score and venue adjusted numbers for all teams thus far and with these adjustments the Oiler’s rank 10th in corsi% (52.5), 10th in Fenwick% (53.8) and 10th in shots% (53.1). We have played with the lead a lot, with predictable consequences, but it is impressive we have managed to keep thar possession away from Ricki’s box.

In terms of the sustainability of a high shooting%, I will just say I was struck by the rink map G published of McDavid’s lines shots for vs St.Louis (everything was from the crease area). I feel like I’m constantly shouting ‘Shoot!’ at the screen, so if they’re waiting for better looks, maybe it could have some sustain? Definitely ripe for research, and I hope you do look into xGF% through history WG. Great stuff!

DieHard

vinotintazo,

Thanks. Appreciate it.

N64

These guys are much slower than I remember.

(Except Selane)

jake70

Geez guys…..this isn’t the first 4 games of 1990 playoffs. Oilers oilering…lol.

Professor Q

I think Edmonton should have went with the off-white version of their old classic jerseys tomorrow; with the red-orange bars.

vinotintazo

whale:
Been away for a few days. Tried to access General Fanager. Oops. Does anyone have another site that works. Really miss Capgeek as well.

https://www.capfriendly.com/

DieHard

Been away for a few days. Tried to access General Fanager. Oops. Does anyone have another site that works. Really miss Capgeek as well.

Ancient Oilers Fan

I’m a little slow as usual and if this has already been discussed I’m sorry for wasting you time.

In G didohdeeirjeien’s post game analysis is after the STL game, the picture of where shots came from with Nurse & Gryba on the ice showed all of the shots, and there were a lot, came from Gryba,s side.

Well one backhand is shown as right in the middle but all on Gryba’s side sounds better for my narrative.

I’m really pulling for Nurse to be a stud D.

Does this mean STL was targeting Gryba which says something.

Was Nurse that good at suppressing shots?

That picture was really stark in it’s one sidedness.

Without this site I might hate retirement.

YKOil

Chiarelli knew he would lose the Hall trade on value.

Shero knew Chiarelli would lose the Hall trade on value.

However, as bad as Chiarelli needed Larsson, Shero was never getting a clean shot at a player like Hall again.

So, for Chiarelli (imo) the option to lose with honour was there. It still would have been a loss but:

Hall, Korpikoski (Oilers covering some salary) and a later year 5th
FOR
Larsson and a later year 3rd

could be classified as ‘losing with honour’.

Frank the dog

Does anybody else think the Oil are in danger of a repeat Buffalo type game?
Who do we have that can successfully fight big buff as he skates around wreaking havoc on our players?
Who will get injured this time?
Who thinks we can sustain winning when at least 1 player gets injured every game?

Derek

I played around a bit at http://www.corsica.hockey/teams/ today.

I believe that the disparity between the actual record of the team, the corgis and the scoring chances is explainable by score effects at this point.

They have the fifth worst 5v5 CF % at 46.36. Pretty ugly.
Their 5v5 CF% while leading is even worse – 43.69. However among teams with a lead that’s actually middle of the packish for the NHL at 18th.
The cause for optimism is Edmonton ranks fifth in the league for TOI while leading (107 minutes).

They’ve spent a whole shitload of time defending the lead which we all know leads to more shots against, but so far they’ve been able to win the chances battle which is great.

Their CF% while trailing is 55.45 which is once again middle of the league (17th). But they’ve only trailed for 62 minutes so their overall CF% is skewed.

I’d guess they’re probably a middle of the pack team, and the corgis will start to support that as the team plays more games.

Frank the dog

John Chambers:
Bank Shot,

This is great stuff. Thanks for surfacing this.

My guess is that the Oilers had a high sh% the year Kruger coached and a decline under Eakins.

Playing a tight defensive zone system that limits kill floor shots, and that capitalizes on transition opportunities seems to be a thing. Also jives with those stats that surfaced over the summer showing that most goals are scored within 10 seconds of a zone entry.

Conclusion – endless cycling and peppering the goal with point shots is a strategy for possession and high Corsi, but lightning-strike attacking could produce a similar offensive output.

Back when we were debating the merits of Ralph and Dallas, the prevailing opinion was that SH% was a random factor that equally randomly regressed to the mean.
I believed then and stubbornly believe now that things considered as random are seen as such are simply aspects where insufficient data exists to determine the variables.
I also think that Krueger and Eakins were at opposite ends of the coaching spectrum, a point well argued in the past with lots of people with concrete views.
But I would be interested to find out what correlation existed even then between Krueger and Eakins’ HDSC “s and their SH%’s, and I would expect that there would be a positive correlation. I.e. That god old common sense would predicate a higher SH% With a higher % of shots being HDSC’s.
That is why I was so contemptuous of Eakins strategy of simply circling the offensive zone with the pick and taking dozens of low danger shots from the perimeters.

Oil2Oilers

Ryan Sproul sounds like he did OK in his season debut last night. Him and Xavier Ouellet seem to be battling it out for the Wings NHL job.

How much would you have to add to Fayne, at a 50% retain, to pry him loose? Big, fast, Right handed and with a bomb of a shot seems tailor made for the Oilers.

Richard S.S.

LT said:
3. Acquire RHC with some skill (tried for Kris Versteeg).

Drake Caggiula, until injury, was being tried out as LHC who could also play LW when not used at Centre. Can he play 2 C and 2 LW if needed? That’s still the question.

The Oilers still need a RHC who can also play RW when not used as Centre. Be nice of he could also play 2 C and 2 RW if needed. That they still don’t have.

The Oilers still need a Lander-plus Center/Wing type to be 13th/14th Forward and able to play 3 C, 3 W, 4 C and 4 W if needed. That they might have.

Cassandra

If Larsson were a #1 D, then no one would think that trading Hall was an overpayment. Unfortunately, there is no evidence that Larsson is a #1 D. He’s good defensively, but he doesn’t have magic powers, he’s been beat plenty the past five games. He’s a good passer, but he’s not a scoring D.

He’s a nice player. He’s not a star player.

As for the divide, it is because there is a real divide. There is the new majority, who are fans first. Who will believe the team is good when they win and will be happy. And if the team loses they will be angry. Their response will be driven by this attitude. Always. It is what they are.

And then there are those who come here for analysis, who love the truth more than the Oilers. These people will be hated and persecuted by the fans, for they do not believe in the gods of the city.

It is the way of the world.

Centre of attention

Time to check TSN and read some wonderful opinion articles… http://www.tsn.ca/video/will-the-leafs-become-the-new-blackhawks~978132

Oh. Ok then.

*chugs bleach*

fifthcartel

I think there have been a few sources saying if Shattenkirk would have signed an extension he’d be an Oiler today, and Hall would be a Blue.

There was even media saying Edmonton was ok with an unsigned Shattenkirk but wanted a forward added, but St. Louis didn’t want to so might be able to guess it was a pretty decent forward.

dustrock

Chaos Magian:
JustWatt,
http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-pdo-numbers-save-plus-shooting-percentage/2016/
—–

Lowetide or others. Any chance Chia is hoping Shattenkirk or Burns make it to UFA next year?
—–

I’m sure they are, Burns in particular. Chia doesn’t have a huge amount of cap space and needs to be thinking about McDavid and Drai contracts, on top of anyone else.

The problem with both those players is like Seabrook, they are going to be looking for cap hit and term.

Burns is what, 32? He would be an unbelievable player for the Oilers, but for how long? We’ve already got Lucic having a cap anchor contract.

Oddspell

frjohnk: Flames and Avs were mid 40’s for corsi, scoring chances and high danger chances.

Oilers are at 46 corsi and in the 50’s for scoring and high danger chances.

I’m late to this conversation, but what are the chances that those teams started with HDSC in the 50s, but as the season progressed, they were scouted and the HDSC regressed to their corsi?

go_oil

Water Fire,

Agreed. I can see Hall as an overpayment, but I can appreciate the return of Larsson on the other side of the ledger to prevent HDSC’s.

Watching the Oilers this year I can see more structure in their game with breakouts, and less turnovers in the neutral zone. Less chaos overall. But I think there’s still room for improvement around support all over the ice. But I see them winning more puck battles and better transition in their game.

I think it’s tough seeing skill leaving the line-up (Hall, Yak, Schultz), but I think Chiarelli and Maclellan have done well in bringing a responsible, 2-way mindset to the group. I don’t fault the players that left – I think the Oilers have just had too many of the same high end skill players all coming into the league together, without support of proper veterans, or being thrust into roles where they were set up to fail.

It’s encouraging to see Pakarinen, Slepyshev and Pitlick perhaps coming along as an option for the Pisani role on the right side – 2-way scorer, blend of skill and size. It’ll be interesting how the roster shakes out once the IR gets healthy. I think Cagguila brings a unique skills set – speed and physicality like a Gallagher – that benefits the team. And who goes away once everyone is healthy? Finally some depth, with even the likes of Khaira down in Bakersfield.

Lot’s of room for improvement with Corsi – but I’ll take the better HDSC’s!

I’ll also add that Nurse looks a lot more settled out there in his game on the 3rd pair.

Admiral Ackbar

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour:

This is such a wonderful site for people with a passion for hockey and a deep love of the Oilers (tough as it can be at times). I am sure I am not alone in saying losing this place would really diminish the hockey season completely. I can only say that whatever was said by whoever to make LT the upset is indefensible. To LT, I want you to know that I have the upmost respect for you and what you are as a person, as we get to glimpse from your wonderful writing and for your tireless dedication in making this site so vibrant.

Great post. Thank you for this. I agree 100%.

Also, for those overvaluing statistics:

Please study statistics. You’ll then know how highly flawed and how assumptive the current brand of analytics are. Yes, even dangerous fenwick (for all you cool kids out there).

Having to read medical literature and clinical trials on a regular basis, I know that a quality of understanding of statistics is vital in debunking bad studies. Hockey statistics would only fall into a middle strength for quality of evidence (at best). It’s difficult to define a hockey player’s value with 3, 4 or even 5 reductive values.

How a player is observed is still relevant.

jm363561

Jonas Gustavsson is not satisfactory as a backup goalie – his SV% this year is a measly 100%.?

Frank the dog

theres oil in virginia: Polarization is the norm everywhere I look.It’s how “we” stay under “their” control.Divide and conquer, so to speak.While “D”s and “R”s are arguing with each other about how shitty the other one is, the banks reign and the country swirls down the bowl.(The dirty little secret is that they’re both largely the same in policy, wildly different in rhetoric.)

The mentality is fostered by extreme statements that push people back into their respective corners, and away from any meaningful debate, which is why I hate those types of statements so much.

I was once told that the difference between the R’s and the D’s was that the R’s reduce benefits and the D’s increase taxes.

kinger_OIL

Water Fire: The trade can be an overpayment, and the team can end up better off. These two things aren’t mutually exclusive. It is why Chia did IMO.

– I get this point of view, but I’m not sure I agree with it.

– Even if Hall is a better #1 RW than Larsson is a #1RHD, the relative impact on a team’s performance is far greater impacted by who is playing #1 RHD than the first line winger.

– Solving your number # 1problem, RHD, and pocketing $1.8MM to help finance the replacement of the loss of Hall doesn’t seem that much of an overpayment to me: but that’s only my opinion

– Certainly I prefer that $1.8MM savings to some plug that comes back to even out salaries

– Sure maybe adding a 3rd round pick or B prospect looks better on paper, but whatever, I don’t walk away from the deal because of that.

– Not having a #1RHD was not an option at all. Last year our #1 RHD by time played was Jultz

Woodguy

Bank Shot: 9.73
9.71
7.82
9.03
7.88

past to present

Thank you

Bsquared

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour:
I’ll start this off with a disclaimer – I’m writing in response to some less wonderful things that have happened lately here on Lowetide. This is not a “hockey post” but more of an essay on the issue and values of this site. Those not interested should ignore, This is about formulating a heartfelt endorsement of our host who has been an exemplary a fan, a writer, a sports enthusiast and a person.

First I was shocked and saddened to see LT’scomment a few days ago that he was seriously and imminently considering shutting this blog down for egregious behaviour, aimed at him and perhaps even his family. He did not enumerate exactly what led to his exasperation, but I gather that there is a fair bit of vitriol aimed his way regarding his position on trades, moves etc. This is of course absolutely uncalled for.

This is such a wonderful site for people with a passion for hockey and a deep love of the Oilers (tough as it can be at times). I am sure I am not alone in saying losing this place would really diminish the hockey season completely. I can only say that whatever was said by whoever to make LT the upset is indefensible. To LT, I want you to know that I have the upmost respect for you and what you are as a person, as we get to glimpse from your wonderful writing and for your tireless dedication in making this site so vibrant

Second I wanted to comment on the tone of a post that suggested that “opinion” has no place and that the only “value” here is from analytics. The exact post and words I’ve forgotten but the idea was that unless you are listing a table or graphical representation of the game for statistical breakdown ad interpretation basically you should shut up.

I get that “opinion” carries little weight in a discussion. But this is a site for fans ofthe Oilers to communicate with an online community of like minded fans from all over the world. I personally come here for the wonderful writing from LT, the banter, the personalities, the information you just can’t find on your own about players, the AHL, prospects both Oiler and other teams and finally I come here to read stuff about the Oilers!I’m not into the math or stats or any of that but I do like hockey and I do love the Oilers. So I’d like to be able to chime in now and again with a thought or idea. I left another Oiler site because the tone there got to be so “cliquey” that if you didn’t chant the same phrases you were laughed at and ostracized.

I like it here because people say things that are different. I don’t like when people attack others and I don’t like reading the “Debbie Downer” types who can see no positive in anything. So guess what? I skip that stuff, I don’t call out or shame anyone.

Last, I’ll make a plea that we remember we are here because of the dedication of the host. Respect for him, personally and professionally as well as respect for each other should be the foremost principle. Opinions, ideas and mathematics can coexist and each element can bring something to the discussion.

So how about we all move on from character assassinations and vitriol and enjoy this site and all the great information and contributors who al bring something?

I apologize in advance if anyone feels this is out of place. I like this community and I’d like to see it continue and stay lively and fun and interesting.I thought long and hard before hitting send – I actually would have just directly messaged LT with this message, but I have to admit out in front of everyone here that I don’t know how to too that!

Just my thoughts and my opinion. Maybe it isn’t necessary for me to have said all this – maybe you’ve all come to grips with this and I’m just wasting space. But as a frequent visitor her, I felt I needed t say this out loud, rather than just to my computer.

Hope everyone has a great weekend! And thanks again to you LT for making this a thing! You have been a tower of strength and fairness. Sincerely, thank you.

What he said! I like the discussion, ideas, insight, wit and sarcasm on this site. I can definitely do without the arguing and disrespect that goes on. We are all here because we are fans of the Oil. Thanks LT for providing my daily dose of Oil to keep me going!

stevezie

OilClog,

I believe the idea is either we get that rhC and Drai becomes the Hemsky you speak of, or we get that right wing and Drai plays C.

BONE207

Hey Walter Gretzky…nice post.

I signed up at this sight about April 18th, 2015 because of the host. I listen to him religiously since then as well. I think him and I have a number of commonalities (CR, Hockey, same aged kids etc) but he’s much smarter at stats/players than I could ever hope. I have gotten smarter at the so called Fancy Stats (I think it should just be called the Mathy Stats as this site makes them so common that they are the norm and nothing fancy about them) but still miles to go. I missed the hub-bub the other day but this place and the many fine people who spend hours calculating and posting make the posts almost as enjoyable as the pieces the Host writes. I’ve already been accused of being an addict of the black web page & I hope the threat of taking away my Lowtide is just hyperbole. Keep up the good work 99% of you. As for the bad 1%…F U. Oh, also you Böökije.

Water Fire

OilClog: was the Hall trade truly an overpayment? Love Hall, but Larsson is the goods, hits, shoots, head on a swivel, skates, passes, and brings some nasty.. On the first pairing, while not getting his head kicked in..

The trade can be an overpayment, and the team can end up better off. These two things aren’t mutually exclusive. It is why Chia did IMO.

Frank the dog

Oilanderp:
Hitchcock did say in his post-game comments that although the Blues had lots of shots, the Oilers did a good job of keeping them from out on the perimeter.

Rob and Reid echoed that sentiment on their AM radio post game show.

Perhaps the high danger scoring chances bear this out, and this is all not just a mirage.

Edit: Staples’ new article at the Journal also supports this.

This will make the Bear happy.