SEE THE SKY ABOUT TO RAIN

Back in the summer, we talked about balance. I had a monster shopping list (kind of got carried away, gotta say) that was divided into categories based on need. It was called See the Sky About to Rain.

THE CHIARELLI LIST

  1. Top-pairing RHD (Adam Larsson)
  2. Second-pairing RHD (Kris Russell, a lefty)
  3. Acquire RHC with some skill (tried for Kris Versteeg)
  4. Backup goalie (Jonas Gustavsson)
  5. Add a “Pisani” (Tyler Pitlick might be an inside answer)
  6. Re-stock the shelves via the draft (Puljujarvi, Benson, others in a good draft)
  7. Improve overall team speed (Puljujarvi, but still a concern)
  8. Offload Lauri Korpikoski (done)
  9. Improve goaltending depth (added Nick Ellis)
  10. Improve AHL quality (Caggiula, Russell, Ellis, Benning)
  11. Cull the LHD herd (added, but also brought in righties like Larsson and Benning)
  12. Rob the World of something

Very few of his solutions were ideal and many appeared unsatisfactory—still others did not reveal themselves until preseason and could be categorized as luck. Adam Larsson is a good NHL defenseman, we agreed as soon as the trade was made, but holy hell folks the price was searing. If Steve Tambellini or Craig MacTavish had made the trade, God knows what vehicle would have been parked (and who knows what would have been on the sign!) on Kingsway!

I remember when the team re-signed Tyler Pitlick, it seemed rather curious to me. Iiro Pakarinen had taken the job Pitlick would have been applying for and no one could have blamed the young man for trying to find his way with another organization. Loyalty counts for something and he signed another one-year deal. It appears to have finally clicked, although early days. Pitlick always looked like a player to me, reflected in this from fall 2012:

  • Pitlick is a shooter, and despite the wasteland that is his score sheet continues to rip it. So far in his pro career, Pitlick has 156 shots and 7 goals. That’s 4.49%, which is piss poor. How much of that is luck? No clue. However, I think its a reasonable bet that he’ll improve that number as he matures. Pitlick is still a kid, he has time. Source

That was four years ago, and it is amazing he is still here. In a world where struggling prospects normally get flushed in the minutes after their entry-level deals expire, this is Pitlick’s sixth season with the Edmonton organization. How much credit do we give Peter Chiarelli and his crew for continuing the patient approach? To the victor goes the spoils.

OILERS FORWARDS, AFTER FIVE GAMES

oilers-forwards-numbers-oct-22

  • This is sorted by HD scoring chances (all numbers via NaturalStatTrick) and for me there is some very interesting information here.
  • The Lucic—McDavid—Eberle line is flying high above everything, the Oilers are a different team when the line is on the ice.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins does poorly by Corsi for 5×5 percentage, saws off in scoring chances and is strong in high-danger scoring chances. My assumption (note: not a math expert) is that these things will normalize once we reach 20 games (these numbers above are too early to trust) but it is a fascinating look at one player’s first five games.
  • Anton Slepyshev may fall out of the lineup tomorrow in Winnipeg but his numbers are excellent. He has played well with Patrick Maroon and Leon Draisaitl, and that line should get another shot.
  • Anton Lander was missed, he is 39.13 Corsi, 33.33 Scoring Chances and 5-4 in high-danger scoring chances. As is the case with the Nuge, his HD SC number is out of time with the possession numbers.

I think this gap in the numbers will find its way, and the Oilers record will too. I remain convinced that:

  • Hall for Larsson was an overpay
  • Jonas Gustavsson is not satisfactory as a backup goalie
  • Kris Russell was not a strong solution to the RHD puck-moving issue
  • Tyler Pitlick makes for a wobbly Pisani (although I cheer for him)
  • The RHC situation (now a RW situation) is too thin to last.

You know what? I sound like a loose cannon on a morning when the team sits at 4-1-0. No one is going to listen, but the Oilers as a team are running good luck and an easier schedule and no one wants to hear it. Old man yells at cloud! Will this Oilers team pull up the possession numbers and find a way to fix the PP without a RH shot as a hammer? Will the goaltending (Talbot) hold up? Will Pitlick have a shooting percentage run for the ages?

We wait.

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139 Responses to "SEE THE SKY ABOUT TO RAIN"

  1. sliderule says:

    This team is now third last in NHL for most turnovers .This is right were they finished last year.

    The Corsi says they spend a lot of time in own zone.

    Combine own zone with lots of turnovers and I am concerned

  2. Jethro Tull says:

    Well, I guess every silver lining does have a dark cloud around it.:-)

    I have posted this a few times. This is absolutely Chia’s MO. Bit part players on short contracts and keep working them like stepping stones until one works or you’ve developed a player. Seriously, look at his trades the first three years in Beantown. I think only Chara made it to the cup from those years. Crazy turnover, not scared to take on short term help and then cut bait.

  3. gogliano says:

    Was hoping Pitlick would show better by the numbers as he had shown some deft work around the net and it’s hard not to root for the guy. (But small sample sizes and all that). This team could really use picks like Slepy or Pitlick to start being valuable 3rd and 4th liners. Good teams fill out their roster with picks outside the first round and we’ve been abysmal at it.

  4. Pajamah says:

    Like those above me, and our benevolent host, I too am worried about a market correction. With that in mind, worse Oiler teams never knew what 8 points in 5 games was like, luck or not.

    The world may return to as it once was, but it may just be the Oilers are better for it, and improve those iffy numbers. If the Oilers can manage to get better before their poor possession comes crumbling down on them, we may actually see a good season.

  5. leadfarmer says:

    Pitlick always looked like a player in between all the injuries. He doesn’t have to be Pisani he just has to beat Iiro who other than filling the Finish requirements is a waiver caliber player.

    When Hall fails to score 65 points and 30 goals on the Devils team I think people will realize that while we overpayed the cost wasn’t as ridiculous as some made it seem

  6. Jethro Tull says:

    sliderule:
    This team is now third lastin NHL for most turnovers .This is right were they finished last year.

    The Corsi says they spend a lot of time in own zone.

    Combine own zone with lots of turnovers and I am concerned

    Third last in most turnovers is a good thing, no?

  7. frjohnk says:

    Instead of McDavid beating a couple of guys and getting 1 shot from the high danger area, he should shoot from the perimeter and then race to get the rebound and then go back to the perimeter and shoot again.

    That will help the corsi

    Gaming for corsi 101

  8. Pouzar says:

    The market will correct but this team is no longer a bottom feeder. Long losing streaks makes you one of those and with McJoy we are long losing streak proof (Injuries not withstanding).
    Enjoy the ride folks.

  9. UKOil says:

    Maybe I am slowly becoming an optimist, but perhaps it is just the Oilers style of play? In the D zone I see them not always being so aggressive on the attacker but making sure they have inside position, HD scoring chances favour the Oil? I’m just taking a guess here

  10. Pouzar says:

    frjohnk:
    Instead of McDavid beating a couple of guys and getting 1 shot from the high danger area, he should shoot from the perimeter and then race to get the rebound and then go back to the perimeter and shoot again.

    That will help the corsi

    Gaming for corsi 101

    TMc coaching for HDSC!

  11. Lowetide says:

    UKOil:
    Maybe I am slowly becoming an optimist, but perhaps it is just the Oilers style of play? In the D zone I see them not always being so aggressive on the attacker but making sure they have inside position, HD scoring chances favour the Oil? I’m just taking a guess here

    This is a great point, and for me follows what G has been looking at over these months. If Corsi gives less of a picture than HD SC, this would be an interesting early look at it. Edmonton is under 50 percent in Corsi, but HDSC reflects the record.

    If DFF is going to prove itself, this trend would need to continue, not just in Edmonton but in other cities, too. Interesting days.

  12. Woodguy says:

    You aren’t praising Chia and declaring the Oilers world beaters.

    According to the Internet you aren’t a real fan and just wallowing in bitterness.

    Just so you know.

  13. Frank the dog says:

    I remember when Calgary went on a tear while delivering poor underlying stats. I remember the arguments over his subject. Iirc, While we remained worse than Calgary, they dis regress to the mean the following season.
    So this is a sombre warning to this team.
    On the note of the assorted controversial subjects I would suggest that the only person who should get to speak in absolutes should be the blog master. This is his blog, fit in or f off. (The FIFO paradigm). This might sound autocratic, but it’s how it should be. Doesn’t have to be reasonable in our eyes, this is a community of people who are prepared to abide by LT’s simple rules of respect and fact based, or at lease, objective debate.
    LT, I don’t know how your blocking works, bit I would hope that people whose transgressions are deliberate and persistent, are put on a permanent blacklist. To me, that would be to block their registered email address and perhaps even their ip address.
    I would suggest you form a community of trusted associates to help you at least be able to review flagged blogs in your own time, during which the comment no longer appears on the blog.
    I’d also suggest that the time may have come to put this blog behind a pay wall, to discourage trolls.
    The other thing though, is how to deal with entrenched views. Take Taylor Hall. It’s such a pity that there are those who would interpret a SC win as being because Chia traded Hall for Larsson, and others who would say that the Oil won SC in spite of.
    Can’t we all just get along?

  14. Halfwise says:

    Davidson will push the numbers the other way, I’d guess, but the odds are that his return (or Fayne’s) will be just in time to replace one of the top 4 who goes out for a few weeks. Le sigh.

    This team is better. Better is a place between Here and Good Enough, and the only road passes through it. But every parent with a car knows the answer to “Are we there yet?”

  15. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    You aren’t praising Chia and declaring the Oilers world beaters.

    According to the Internet you aren’t a real fan and just wallowing in bitterness.

    Just so you know.

    Haha. I have been getting texts and emails asking me to apologize for my views on the Hall trade. Interesting times.

  16. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: This is a great point, and for me follows what G has been looking at over these months. If Corsi gives less of a picture than HD SC, this would be an interesting early look at it. Edmonton is under 50 percent in Corsi, but HDSC reflects the record.

    If DFF is going to prove itself, this trend would need to continue, not just in Edmonton but in other cities, too. Interesting days.

    When I get back from Tennesee I’m going to have a look at some historical info on this.

    Manny’s xGF is very close to G’s DFF and he has historical data.

    A data point that makes me nervous is their 101.87 PDO owed mostly to a 10.81SH%

    That’s not a long term number.

  17. UKOil says:

    Lowetide,

    Just watching Kings and Blues games from seasons past, I don’t think Corsi should have that much impact as HD scoring chances, holding a puck in the zone but only having outside the slot chances would show high corsi, even with such low quality scoring chances. The Oil are fast transition, not likely to grind out wins every week. Just IMO

  18. PaperKurtRussell says:

    I know some of you guys follow the stock market, so you may have heard this expression:

    It’s okay to be wrong, but it’s not okay to stay wrong.

    To me, that fits Chia’s style very well. For example, if the old regime had pulled the trigger on that Reinhart trade, I have no doubt that he would be in our top-4 this year playing big minutes that he doesn’t deserve. (ahem, looking at you Jultz) Instead, Chia can see things for what they are, sent the lad to AHL and hired Russell and Gryba to play in the big league. You can’t always win trades, but don’t make it worse by being stubborn.

  19. JustWatt says:

    There’s a whole lot of sense running through here today. It’s been two sleeps since the last game and the blood is no longer as inflamed as it was post-St. Loo takedown.

    LT nailed it on the head with concerns about Russell (who looks to be playing far above his established level) and the existing holes on the roster. I would add that the secondary scoring has been wonderful but is likely unsustainable.

    The balance for some of all these shoes that we are waiting to see drop are the under-performers who are also due for a correction only upwards instead of down. Nuge and Pouliot are clearly sitting on the wrong side of a swing in fortunes. If they find their offense around the time that the secondary scoring comes back to earth then things might be alright in the goal production department. I also suspect that the first line’s scoring is somewhat sustainable.

    It won’t offset the coming decline in Russell’s play though and I suspect that the lack of cover there will cause us to settle into a more reasonable spot in the standings.

  20. JJS says:

    Both the Flames and the Avalanche have made nice runs to the post season with terrible possession stats.

    I would gladly ride this puck luck to the hinterland.

    Or as noted above, perhaps the Oil are just better at scoring goals from the slot/keeping shooters out of our slot

  21. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Haha. I have been getting texts and emails asking me to apologize for my views on the Hall trade. Interesting times.

    I can’t wait for the US election to be over.

    Seems to be fostering an “us vs. them” type mentality in many things.

    Then again maybe the election is just another symptom of something else.

    Tribalism is trumping (no pun intended) debate and conversation.

    Can’t thank you enough for keeping this place relatively sane.

  22. Frank the dog says:

    Lowetide: Haha. I have been getting texts and emails asking me to apologize for my views on the Hall trade. Interesting times.

    You put those emails in the spam filter, right?

  23. Woodguy says:

    JJS:
    Both the Flames and the Avalanche have made nice runs to the post season with terrible possession stats.

    I would gladly ride this puck luck to the hinterland.

    Or as noted above, perhaps the Oil are just better at scoring goals from the slot/keeping shooters out of our slot

    After 10 years in the desert I’d take a PDO fueled playoff run in a heartbeat.

    After all, that’s how EDM beat DET in the first round in 2006. After that they were full value.

    I still want a good team with high end underlying numbers though as those teams are perennial playoff teams and Cup contenders.

  24. JustWatt says:

    Woodguy: When I get back from Tennesee I’m going to have a look at some historical info on this.

    Manny’s xGF is very close to G’s DFF and he has historical data.

    A data point that makes me nervous is their 101.87 PDO owed mostly to a 10.81SH%

    That’s not a long term number.

    Honest question: is it actually possible that the PDO of 101 will be sustainable? I grant you that a shooting % over 10 is not but Talbot’s save % is still on the low side and has a reasonable chance of rising enough to cover the coming drop in shooting percentage.

    If you were only referring to shooting percentage then I have no quarrel with your statement.

    Related question: how many teams on average finish with a PDO over 100 in a season and how likely are they to make the playoffs? How many with a PDO under 100 make it on average? Should we be looking for a PDO that runs just a little hot if we are going to expect them to make the playoffs eventually? (OK that was like three questions.)

  25. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Lowetide: Haha. I have been getting texts and emails asking me to apologize for my views on the Hall trade.

    Sorry bout that.

  26. jasontheschoolteacher says:

    Is the issue with the Hall trade that we got Larsson instead of a better dman or is it we should have got Larsson plus? I think one overlooked benefit of Larsson is his great contract. If we got a better dman in return for 6/7 million wouldn’t this create some problems too? Early on social media is quick to criticize every bad play of Larsson but ignore when Hall has a bad game. I hope the trade works out for both players and organizations!

  27. Water Fire says:

    Lowetide: This is a great point, and for me follows what G has been looking at over these months. If Corsi gives less of a picture than HD SC, this would be an interesting early look at it. Edmonton is under 50 percent in Corsi, but HDSC reflects the record.

    If DFF is going to prove itself, this trend would need to continue, not just in Edmonton but in other cities, too. Interesting days.

    Scoring chances seem to me to be rock solid simply by logic. The game is won and lost in the long run first in net, and then in the ice that runs between the nets ~40 feet wide.

    The team that wins the battles there will have success. Over the last few years the Oilers have been very weak in net and middle ice, by math and by eye.

    I believe McLellan knows what he’s doing and that he isn’t rigid. I also believe the coach needs to be 100% in charge for the highest level of success in hockey. It’s not like Babcock is a touchy feely guy, he definitely plays up the grumpy hard ass persona. Still he also accommodates those who warrant it from my readings.

  28. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: After 10 years in the desert I’d take a PDO fueled playoff run in a heartbeat.

    After all, that’s how EDM beat DET in the first round in 2006.After that they were full value.

    I still want a good team with high end underlying numbers though as those teams are perennial playoff teams and Cup contenders.

    Flames and Avs were mid 40’s for corsi, scoring chances and high danger chances.

    Oilers are at 46 corsi and in the 50’s for scoring and high danger chances.

  29. Woodguy says:

    JustWatt: Honest question: is it actually possible that the PDO of 101 will be sustainable? I grant you that a shooting % over 10 is not but Talbot’s save % is still on the low side and has a reasonable chance of rising enough to cover the coming drop in shooting percentage.

    If you were only referring to shooting percentage then I have no quarrel with your statement.

    Related question: how many teams on average finish with a PDO over 100 in a season and how likely are they to make the playoffs? How many with a PDO under 100 make it on average? Should we be looking for a PDO that runs just a little hot if we are going to expect them to make the playoffs eventually? (OK that was like three questions.)

    I’ve looked at PDO sustainability in the past and iirc the only it sustains is with elite goalering.

    Luongo, Price and Lunqvist can do it for a team.

    The only team I saw with above average sh% that stayed there for more than 2 years was ANA.

    A high sh% is usually not sustainable over multiple seasons, whereas SV% can be.

  30. Oilanderp says:

    Hitchcock did say in his post-game comments that although the Blues had lots of shots, the Oilers did a good job of keeping them from out on the perimeter.

    Rob and Reid echoed that sentiment on their AM radio post game show.

    Perhaps the high danger scoring chances bear this out, and this is all not just a mirage.

    Edit: Staples’ new article at the Journal also supports this.

  31. judgedrude says:

    frjohnk,

    I think that this is real, and we need to think about what these metrics are telling us. I was actually thinking about Corsi and Jultz missing an assignment in the slot. He only gave up 1 shot. Good for Corsi, bad for winning.

    Corsi is shots, and that likely correlates with possession and game flow. And if you control the flow, you generally control scoring, which is where I think LT lives. But if we think of extremes, if you control the entire game, and the only shots you give up are 15 two-on-one chances, the score may not correlate with Corsi.

    I’ve seen the percentages from smart people here before. The High Danger chances are labelled that way because the Save% is much less. Something like 3% of low danger shots go in, but 15% of high danger shots go in.

    Maybe the math guys here can do a Danger-Weighted Corsi that weights the Corsi events to the likelihood of a goal…A high danger shot is worth 5x more than a low danger chance and 2x more than a medium danger opportunity. (Or whatever the numbers are) That might help satisfy the need for high event counts, but start to take into account that HD chances have a higher chance of ending up in a goal.

    Such a DW-Corsi could then couple possession ability and be a predictor of scoring more accurately, no?

    Footnote: The Oiler’s video showing the Old-timers in the MTS locker room had a list with the 3C as Gretzky. Don’t worry RNH, you’re in good company.

  32. Johnny says:

    JustWatt:
    There’s a whole lot of sense running through here today. It’s been two sleeps since the last game and the blood is no longer as inflamed as it was post-St. Loo takedown.

    LT nailed it on the head with concerns about Russell (who looks to be playing far above his established level) and the existing holes on the roster. I would add that the secondary scoring has been wonderful but is likely unsustainable.

    The balance for some of all these shoes that we are waiting to see drop are the under-performers who are also due for a correction only upwards instead of down. Nuge and Pouliot are clearly sitting on the wrong side of a swing in fortunes. If they find their offense around the time that the secondary scoring comes back to earth then things might be alright in the goal production department. I also suspect that the first line’s scoring is somewhat sustainable.

    It won’t offset the coming decline in Russell’s play though and I suspect that the lack of cover there will cause us to settle into a more reasonable spot in the standings.

    The numbers I have seen that show Russel playing ‘above his head’ are REL numbers. Why is it a given that he must be worse than the other defenders on his team?

    Unless it’s not just his REL numbers that show him playing better than normal…

  33. Water Fire says:

    jasontheschoolteacher:
    Is the issue with the Hall trade that we got Larsson instead of a better dman or is it we should have got Larsson plus? I think one overlooked benefit of Larsson is his great contract. If we got a better dman in return for 6/7 million wouldn’t this create some problems too? Early on social media is quick to criticize every bad play of Larsson but ignore when Hall has a bad game. I hope the trade works out for both players and organizations!

    All of the above. Trading is complicated these days. I think the issue came down to multiple quality media sources saying Hall had been available for quite a while, it weakened Chia’s position especially after the draft didn’t bring a trade, but let’s not ruin LT’s Saturday he gets enough of Hall trade shenanigans.

  34. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: Flames and Avs were mid 40’s for corsi, scoring chances and high danger chances.

    Oilers are at 46 corsi and in the 50’s for scoring and high danger chances.

    Thanks Padre

  35. NF Oiler says:

    Something has to be done to get the nuge line going..I like what kassian brings to the team but not the second line

  36. edwards_daddy says:

    Woodguy: I can’t wait for the US election to be over.

    Seems to be fostering an “us vs. them” type mentality in many things.
    Then again maybe the election is just another symptom of something else.
    Tribalism is trumping (no pun intended) debate and conversation.
    Can’t thank you enough for keeping this place relatively sane.

    If Brexit in the UK is anything to go by, the election will just be the start of us vs them.
    The popular press is fueling the rift, and it’s very ugly atm.

  37. oilfan9911 says:

    Woodguy: When I get back from Tennesee I’m going to have a look at some historical info on this.

    Manny’s xGF is very close to G’s DFF and he has historical data.

    A data point that makes me nervous is their 101.87 PDO owed mostly to a 10.81SH%

    That’s not a long term number.

    I seem to recall reading somewhere – please correct me if I’m wrong – that elite goaltending allows for a sustainable PDO bump. After watching Connor, I’m wondering if the same holds true for God-tier forwards. While its still early days in his career, his ability to continually set his linemates up for tap ins or other high quality chances I think is probably sustainable.

  38. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy: I’ve looked at PDO sustainability in the past and iirc the only it sustains is with elite goalering.

    Luongo, Price and Lunqvist can do it for a team.

    The only team I saw with above average sh% that stayed there for more than 2 years was ANA.

    A high sh% is usually not sustainable over multiple seasons, whereas SV% can be.

    Tampa seems to fit the bill of consistently being above average in shooting %.

    11/12-1st
    12/13-3rd
    13/14-8th
    14/15-1st
    15/16-10th

    Washington from 11/12 on has finished no worse than 11th in shooting %.

  39. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy: When I get back from Tennesee

    You mean you’re gonna leave “God’s country”!?

    🙂

  40. Water Fire says:

    judgedrude:
    frjohnk,

    I think that this is real, and we need to think about what these metrics are telling us.I was actually thinking about Corsi and Jultz missing an assignment in the slot.He only gave up 1 shot.Good for Corsi, bad for winning.

    Corsi is shots, and that likely correlates with possession and game flow.And if you control the flow, you generally control scoring, which is where I think LT lives.But if we think of extremes, if you control the entire game, and the only shots you give up are 15 two-on-one chances, the score may not correlate with Corsi.

    I’ve seen the percentages from smart people here before.The High Danger chances are labelled that way because the Save% is much less.Something like 3% of low danger shots go in, but 15% of high danger shots go in.

    Maybe the math guys here can do a Danger-Weighted Corsi that weights the Corsi events to the likelihood of a goal…A high danger shot is worth 5x more than a low danger chance and 2x more than a medium danger opportunity. (Or whatever the numbers are)That might help satisfy the need for high event counts, but start to take into account that HD chances have a higher chance of ending up in a goal.

    Such a DW-Corsi could then couple possession ability and be a predictor of scoring more accurately, no?

    Footnote:The Oiler’s video showing the Old-timers in the MTS locker room had a list with the 3C as Gretzky.Don’t worry RNH, you’re in good company.

    Good points, G’s Dangerous Fenwick For (DFF) I believe is this weighted metric. Fenwick is more accurate than Corsi with more sample size. They are very similar both being shot based.

  41. Lowetide says:

    Via Bob:

    Oilers lines this AM:
    Lucic-McDavid-Eberle
    Maroon-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi
    Pouliot-RNH-Kassian
    Lander/Slepyshev-Letestu-Pitlick
    ==

    Jesse in.

  42. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy: I can’t wait for the US election to be over.

    Seems to be fostering an “us vs. them” type mentality in many things.

    Then again maybe the election is just another symptom of something else.

    Tribalism is trumping (no pun intended) debate and conversation.

    Can’t thank you enough for keeping this place relatively sane.

    Polarization is the norm everywhere I look. It’s how “we” stay under “their” control. Divide and conquer, so to speak. While “D”s and “R”s are arguing with each other about how shitty the other one is, the banks reign and the country swirls down the bowl. (The dirty little secret is that they’re both largely the same in policy, wildly different in rhetoric.)

    The mentality is fostered by extreme statements that push people back into their respective corners, and away from any meaningful debate, which is why I hate those types of statements so much.

  43. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot: Tampa seems to fit the bill of consistently being above average in shooting %.

    11/12-1st
    12/13-3rd
    13/14-8th
    14/15-1st
    15/16-10th

    Washington from 11/12 on has finished no worse than 11th in shooting %.

    Thanks for that!

  44. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot: Tampa seems to fit the bill of consistently being above average in shooting %.

    11/12-1st
    12/13-3rd
    13/14-8th
    14/15-1st
    15/16-10th

    Washington from 11/12 on has finished no worse than 11th in shooting %.

    Can you post the raw 5v5 sh% for each year please?

  45. fifthcartel says:

    Lowetide,

    This is probably because they want him in the Heritage Classic against Laine but on merit he shouldn’t be in imo. I hope they send him down after this game.

    Also, anyone have a clue why they put Ference on LTIR?

  46. jm363561 says:

    The stats guys can help me here – is it correct to believe looking at HD SC without looking at zone starts is misleading? Boyd Gordon would likely be a player impacted by this. And so would Anton Lander, who would be number 6 on your table – is it correct to consider 5 – 4 almost miraculous. I still believe in Anton!

    Generally, it seems zone starts seem to get less attention than previously.

  47. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy: Thanks for that!

    I also found a good stretch for Pittsburgh.

    07/08-3rd
    08/09-2nd
    09/10-11th
    10/11-21st
    11/12-3rd
    12/13-2nd
    13/14-5th

    Outside of 10/11, Pittsburgh had a real good run for a long time.

    There must be some sustainability, for some teams. Or, its just luck that looks like a pattern. haha.

  48. leadfarmer says:

    Those Ducks teams were more than happy to cycle the puck forever waiting for the D to wear out before moving the puck to the front of the net. If there was a measure for length of possession per corsi event that team would have been of the charts

  49. dangilitis says:

    It’s interesting those numbers on RNH. Could they mean that he spends a fair bit of time trying to prevent bad things from happening in his own end, but is battling a bit when he gets in opposition territory? Will this improve with draisaitl on the wing?

  50. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy: Can you post the raw 5v5 sh% for each year please?

    5v5 TAMPA

    11/12- 1st
    12/13-2nd
    13/14-14th
    14/15-1st
    15/16-7th

    Conversely, the highest New Jersey has finished in ES shooting % from 07/08-present is 14th.

    Poor Taylor.

  51. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT! Re: Hall trade. If the Devils had thrown in a 3rd round pick or a depth NHL player, would that plus the $1.8MM savings = fair value for Hall, in your opinion?

    – I know you get grief for your view on trade, might be helpful to know what would be “fair” for you

  52. Confused says:

    More of a soccer coach than a hockey coach.

    But I can tell you that in soccer CORSI would be a meaningless measure.

    And many teams are specifically constructed to have a very low CORSI, then score on the breakout. via a grade A chance.

    Trust the goalie.

  53. Showerhead says:

    Intuition based guesses:

    1) Given where goals come from, scoring chances are more accurate than Corsi.
    2) There is at least some non-trivial noise in that difference because of the substantial volume of shit-happens goals – tips, bounces, screened goaltenders, etc. Goalies stop so much of what they get a clean look at that garbage goals are very real and prone to even more randomness than clean looks are. In this way, volume shooting probably does have (some) real benefit.

    I think Edmonton is playing with fire but winning and banking points. I think that McDavid is so good that he does stack high danger scoring chances in Edmonton’s favour by a large margin when he is on the ice. Look at Lucic’s goal on the 2-on-2 with McDavid that turned into Lucic alone with the goaltender. No other puck carrier could have turned that into a great scoring chance without a lot of luck. McDavid can, and he’ll do it again.

    The rest of the lines… well yeah. They have got to get better before this is anything but a short term party. I think they will improve… but by how much?

    That’s why we watch.

  54. stevezie says:

    “Hall for Larsson was an overpay
    Jonas Gustavsson is not satisfactory as a backup goalie
    Kris Russell was not a strong solution to the RHD puck-moving issue
    Tyler Pitlick makes for a wobbly Pisani (although I cheer for him)
    The RHC situation (now a RW situation) is too thin to last”

    God bless you for using your platform to say the things i say more eloquently than i usually say them!

  55. Dominoiler says:

    Does RTB also warrant a shout out?.. he’s been preaching a defensive dmans value is shown in suppressing HDSC (or is this limited to only discussing the HD shots in close?)

    Lowetide: This is a great point, and for me follows what G has been looking at over these months. If Corsi gives less of a picture than HD SC, this would be an interesting early look at it. Edmonton is under 50 percent in Corsi, but HDSC reflects the record.

    If DFF is going to prove itself, this trend would need to continue, not just in Edmonton but in other cities, too. Interesting days.

  56. judgedrude says:

    Water Fire: Good points, G’s Dangerous Fenwick For (DFF) I believe is this weighted metric. Fenwick is more accurate than Corsi with more sample size. They are very similar both being shot based.

    Ahh. I thought they were another representation of HDSC. I’ll look into it more. Has anyone around here said that G is a pretty smart cookie?

  57. meanashell11 says:

    judgedrude:
    frjohnk,

    I think that this is real, and we need to think about what these metrics are telling us.I was actually thinking about Corsi and Jultz missing an assignment in the slot.He only gave up 1 shot.Good for Corsi, bad for winning.

    Corsi is shots, and that likely correlates with possession and game flow.And if you control the flow, you generally control scoring, which is where I think LT lives.But if we think of extremes, if you control the entire game, and the only shots you give up are 15 two-on-one chances, the score may not correlate with Corsi.

    I’ve seen the percentages from smart people here before.The High Danger chances are labelled that way because the Save% is much less.Something like 3% of low danger shots go in, but 15% of high danger shots go in.

    Maybe the math guys here can do a Danger-Weighted Corsi that weights the Corsi events to the likelihood of a goal…A high danger shot is worth 5x more than a low danger chance and 2x more than a medium danger opportunity. (Or whatever the numbers are)That might help satisfy the need for high event counts, but start to take into account that HD chances have a higher chance of ending up in a goal.

    Such a DW-Corsi could then couple possession ability and be a predictor of scoring more accurately, no?

    Footnote:The Oiler’s video showing the Old-timers in the MTS locker room had a list with the 3C as Gretzky.Don’t worry RNH, you’re in good company.

    So does anyone remember the Detroit series in 2006?

    Detroit was outshooting the Oil like crazy the entire series. Thing was, Oil only gave them outside shots, nothing in the slot and covered the rebounds.

    That is what is happening now.

  58. John Chambers says:

    Bank Shot,

    This is great stuff. Thanks for surfacing this.

    My guess is that the Oilers had a high sh% the year Kruger coached and a decline under Eakins.

    Playing a tight defensive zone system that limits kill floor shots, and that capitalizes on transition opportunities seems to be a thing. Also jives with those stats that surfaced over the summer showing that most goals are scored within 10 seconds of a zone entry.

    Conclusion – endless cycling and peppering the goal with point shots is a strategy for possession and high Corsi, but lightning-strike attacking could produce a similar offensive output.

  59. Showerhead says:

    meanashell11,

    Even if what you’re saying were precisely true, it’s tough to get behind the idea Edmonton 2016 will have a Roloson vs. Legace goaltending advantage for 82 games. There needs to be improvement, even at 4-1, IMO.

  60. dustrock says:

    Confused:
    More of a soccer coach than a hockey coach.

    But I can tell you that in soccer CORSI would be a meaningless measure.

    And many teams are specifically constructed to have a very low CORSI, then score on the breakout. via a grade A chance.

    Trust the goalie.

    If the Oilers were playing some kind of Italian catenaccio, that actually makes sense. If T-Mac had a slightly faster team the approach isn’t that far off what he did with the Young Guns

  61. dustrock says:

    The other warning sign re the Oilers is poor Corsi & TOs despite a relatively favorable schedule and all home games. If this is the result when we get last change…

  62. JimmyV1965 says:

    JJS:
    Both the Flames and the Avalanche have made nice runs to the post season with terrible possession stats.

    I would gladly ride this puck luck to the hinterland.

    Or as noted above, perhaps the Oil are just better at scoring goals from the slot/keeping shooters out of our slot

    I’m really not sure what to make of the possession numbers. There’s no question that teams who consistently get outshot will eventually lose. Yet I rewatched the Blues game last night and I thought we outplayed them and outmuscled them for the first two periods. We took the lead early in the third period and were badly outshot after that. But 6 of those shots came during one power play and another two right afterwards. Even then many of their shots were from farther out. We had more dangerous scoring chances. Overall, I think we outplayed the Blues. With that big skilled defence in front of him, I’m sure Jake Allen rarely sees the kind of dangerous plays he faced against the Oilers.

  63. Bank Shot says:

    John Chambers:
    Bank Shot,
    Conclusion – endless cycling and peppering the goal with point shots is a strategy for possession and high Corsi, but lightning-strike attacking could produce a similar offensive output.

    Sure. You can still score with a shitty corsi.

    Something to keep in mind though is that Tampa Bay didn’t become a good team until their corsi rose to match their shooting %.

  64. stevezie says:

    meanashell11: So does anyone remember the Detroit series in 2006?

    Detroit was outshooting the Oil like crazy the entire series. Thing was, Oil only gave them outside shots, nothing in the slot and covered the rebounds.

    That is what is happening now.

    I remember that was the popular narrative. I also remember the evidence being unanimous that this is not a sustainable strategy for winning, and anyone claiming to be doing it on purpose is either lying or setting themselves up for failure.

    If it turns out the that’s wrong, then the pension plan puppets owe Randy Carlyle a pretty serious apology.

  65. John Chambers says:

    Bank Shot,

    To me Corsi is all about suppressing your opponents breakouts and offensive zone cycle time.

    Like, cycling the puck in your opponent’s end may result in a score, but it will at least avoid shots on your own net.

  66. Rake 2.0 says:

    Is the Alumni game televised? If so, what channel is it on?

  67. Lowetide says:

    Rake 2.0:
    Is the Alumni game televised? If so, what channel is it on?

    223 Shaw, it is on SNET at 2pm.

  68. JimmyV1965 says:

    dangilitis:
    It’s interesting those numbers on RNH. Could they mean that he spends a fair bit of time trying to prevent bad things from happening in his own end, but is battling a bit when he gets in opposition territory? Will this improve with draisaitl on the wing?

    I think RNH is far and away the best player on his line. The play appears to be dieing with Poo and Kassian. He really really needs to shoot more. He seems to be making marginal passes instead of taking the shot.

  69. Lowetide says:

    Nuge is fine. He needs a better RW and a better Pou.

  70. DBO says:

    Lowetide:
    Nuge is fine. He needs a better RW and a better Pou.

    That’s why Puljarvi is so important. He can be a driver of his line. He is a shooter with speed and size. Best fit there with Nuge. Also would like to see Pou and Lucic swap. I think it’s better fits for each centre. McDavid needs more speed and better two way, Nuge is a better cycler of puck and is not
    As fast so he won’t leave Lucic in the dust. Also allows to play two power vs power lines, leaving the Draisatl line to feast on lesser opposition.

  71. Nsquared says:

    Never been a huge fancy stat fan, but thanks to the many great guests LT has on his shows I am warming up to them. One thing that I notice is that to me Corsi seems to not reflect as seriously on the whole line as High Danger chaances do. (i.e if I am a RW and the LW side has a shot thrown at the net on the leftside that affects my stat and those others on my line who are in posistion etc. Even the LW was probably in position if the shot is from the blueline. Whereas a shot that is a HD scoring chance more reflects to multiple player breakdowns to create that chance!) So the fancy stats that reflect high scoring for and against seem to meet the eye test better than corsi. We see the McDavid line in close in the offensive zone with five bell chances and at the other end not as many against, hence the high HD for. So if the team as a whole is winning the HD Battle over all I am more inclined to take comfort in that then Corsi! Also the Corsi against the players on the ice took a hit when a 100 foot shot goes in on a bad bounce when no one on the ice is resposible for that goal, shot,. chance but the goalie himself, therefore creating a Corsi against that never should affect individual stats, but was not a HD chance either! STATS and Math are fun arent they?
    Bottom Line is we are 4-1 and have a decent chance at 5-1 after tomorrow!
    Go Oilers and Go Lowe Tide and gang! Keep up the good work, keeping the rest of us going round and round in circles!

  72. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    I’ll start this off with a disclaimer – I’m writing in response to some less wonderful things that have happened lately here on Lowetide. This is not a “hockey post” but more of an essay on the issue and values of this site. Those not interested should ignore, This is about formulating a heartfelt endorsement of our host who has been an exemplary a fan, a writer, a sports enthusiast and a person.

    First I was shocked and saddened to see LT’s comment a few days ago that he was seriously and imminently considering shutting this blog down for egregious behaviour, aimed at him and perhaps even his family. He did not enumerate exactly what led to his exasperation, but I gather that there is a fair bit of vitriol aimed his way regarding his position on trades, moves etc. This is of course absolutely uncalled for.

    This is such a wonderful site for people with a passion for hockey and a deep love of the Oilers (tough as it can be at times). I am sure I am not alone in saying losing this place would really diminish the hockey season completely. I can only say that whatever was said by whoever to make LT the upset is indefensible. To LT, I want you to know that I have the upmost respect for you and what you are as a person, as we get to glimpse from your wonderful writing and for your tireless dedication in making this site so vibrant

    Second I wanted to comment on the tone of a post that suggested that “opinion” has no place and that the only “value” here is from analytics. The exact post and words I’ve forgotten but the idea was that unless you are listing a table or graphical representation of the game for statistical breakdown ad interpretation basically you should shut up.

    I get that “opinion” carries little weight in a discussion. But this is a site for fans of the Oilers to communicate with an online community of like minded fans from all over the world. I personally come here for the wonderful writing from LT, the banter, the personalities, the information you just can’t find on your own about players, the AHL, prospects both Oiler and other teams and finally I come here to read stuff about the Oilers! I’m not into the math or stats or any of that but I do like hockey and I do love the Oilers. So I’d like to be able to chime in now and again with a thought or idea. I left another Oiler site because the tone there got to be so “cliquey” that if you didn’t chant the same phrases you were laughed at and ostracized.

    I like it here because people say things that are different. I don’t like when people attack others and I don’t like reading the “Debbie Downer” types who can see no positive in anything. So guess what? I skip that stuff, I don’t call out or shame anyone.

    Last, I’ll make a plea that we remember we are here because of the dedication of the host. Respect for him, personally and professionally as well as respect for each other should be the foremost principle. Opinions, ideas and mathematics can coexist and each element can bring something to the discussion.

    So how about we all move on from character assassinations and vitriol and enjoy this site and all the great information and contributors who al bring something?

    I apologize in advance if anyone feels this is out of place. I like this community and I’d like to see it continue and stay lively and fun and interesting. I thought long and hard before hitting send – I actually would have just directly messaged LT with this message, but I have to admit out in front of everyone here that I don’t know how to too that!

    Just my thoughts and my opinion. Maybe it isn’t necessary for me to have said all this – maybe you’ve all come to grips with this and I’m just wasting space. But as a frequent visitor her, I felt I needed t say this out loud, rather than just to my computer.

    Hope everyone has a great weekend! And thanks again to you LT for making this a thing! You have been a tower of strength and fairness. Sincerely, thank you.

  73. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide:
    Nuge is fine. He needs a better RW and a better Pou.

    Meta-Musil?

  74. Jethro Tull says:

    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

    Nice post, neighborino

  75. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot: 5v5 TAMPA

    11/12- 1st
    12/13-2nd
    13/14-14th
    14/15-1st
    15/16-7th

    Conversely, the highest New Jersey has finished in ES shooting % from 07/08-present is 14th.

    Poor Taylor.

    I meant the raw sh% as is “9.79%” or whatever per year.

    I know you are no my answer monkey but I’m on my phone and mobile right now

  76. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    Now I’ll try something hockey related. Given the Oilers need for a R shot D for the PP and a R shot C/W vet. IS there anyone out there – on the “unsigned still around, languishing, how about taking a flyer on” list?

    I have to say, while I understand his personal reasoning, I am still ticked that Versteeg signed with Calgary. To be honest I’d probably not be annoyed still if he had signed with anyone else but “them”…

    Anyone with any player ideas? Asking for a friend (definitely not Peter Chiarelli… Ha Ha Ha Ha)

    After I do several things I have been putting off for oh the last several weeks – like cleaning out my garage so I can park in it again for the winter, I thought I might scan rosters, team lists and maybe I’ll throw out some ideas.

  77. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

    Nice post, neighborino

    Thanks! Seriously, it means a lot to feel a part of this place.

  78. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy: I meant the raw sh% as is “9.79%” or whatever per year.

    I know you are no my answer monkey but I’m on my phone and mobile right now

    9.73
    9.71
    7.82
    9.03
    7.88

    past to present

  79. oilinthepeg says:

    Y’all probably know about this already from the Twitter machine, but:
    Anagram of Peter Chiarelli = Reptile Charlie!
    New nickname!?

    Anyways,
    Hope to see some of you fine folks in Winnipeg this weekend!

    GOILERS!

  80. Abbeef says:

    Longtime reader first time poster.

    I’ve been trying to figure out for a while what constitutes a ‘Pisani’. I’ve come up with a bottom six player that penalty kills, defends well, can play up the lineup in spurts, and can pot around 10 goals. Looking at the current Oilers isn’t this the player bio for Letestu or does it only refer to wingers?

    Also on a different note has anyone looked at the correlation between hdsc and corsi? If so has their been teams in the past that have had a significantly better hdscf/a than corsi?

  81. Elkhorn Boy says:

    Lowetide,

    Agreed…saw the St Louis game and just seemed to be getting bad breaks….puck jumping over stick and passes in his feet. Also came down with a brutal case of Sekeraitis….aiming at shin pads instead of net.

  82. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Sobering and necessary last paragraph, LT.

    Still would love a Boyes to help RNH cash on chances. Still wish they were in on the Trouba sweepstakes. That Nakladal was in Russell’s spot. That Chad Johnson was backing Talbot up. That Pulju was in Bakersfield!

  83. Jethro Tull says:

    oilinthepeg:
    Y’all probably know about this already from the Twitter machine, but:
    Anagram of Peter Chiarelli = Reptile Charlie!
    New nickname!?

    Anyways,
    Hope to see some of you fine folks in Winnipeg this weekend!

    GOILERS!

    Reptile Charlie? He’s the Lizard King. Who was Mr. Mojo Rising. Which is an anagram of Jim Morrison.

    Coincidence? I think not. * adjusts tin foil hat*

  84. Water Fire says:

    I’m hesitant to say Nuge can’t drive a line. Maybe he can’t drive a line playing responsible two way hockey and taking on the toughs for the team as a centre in his early 20’s, this year with substandard help. How many centres can?

    He’s not an elite scorer, but I bet he can pot 60+ if he started playing one way hockey. Context.

    Two way hockey wins when it counts. Every elite player has to take that step to get the team to the next level that I’ve ever seen.

  85. tarvbc says:

    4-1 to start the year is music for this team. Mcdavid is as advertised and we are getting secondary scoring. Defense looks much more stable than years past and Talbot is putting in some good work so far. But the real challenge for this team is when they hit the road in Cali. That gauntlet of teams is whats going to show us if this team is still an adolescent boy or a grown man. They don’t have to go down there and win every game but they have to show some kind of push back and show that they belong in the same league.

  86. OilClog says:

    So much time for Fayne… Yet lets all sit in the first row waiting for Russell to collapse… Madness. I’ve seen nothing out of the Sekera/Russell pairing to bitch about. They’re not getting their heads caved in, they constantly read off eachother switching sides. What is there to bitch about? Oooo he’s left handed boooooo… He’s a damn actual defenceman, he can actually play, not get walked around like a pylon.

    Russell costs nothing but a short term amount of money, in the 5 games he’s played he’s easily in the top 6 defensive performances on this team since 2006.

    Are the Oilers 1-4?

    I’d like to see the corsi broken down per game with scoring effect.. It’s only been 5 games.

    was the Hall trade truly an overpayment? Love Hall, but Larsson is the goods, hits, shoots, head on a swivel, skates, passes, and brings some nasty.. On the first pairing, while not getting his head kicked in..

    When is the last time the Oilers have been able to get control and move the puck out of their own zone? CFP?

    If Allen didn’t play on his head that game would of been 5-1 maybe 6.

    If you’re watching these games thinking damn all these outside shots are really going to start turning the tide compared to the Oilers strategy of driving the net and not giving the puck up until it’s a high grade chance.. 10years of damage.

  87. Chaos Magian says:

    JustWatt,
    http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-pdo-numbers-save-plus-shooting-percentage/2016/
    —–

    Lowetide or others. Any chance Chia is hoping Shattenkirk or Burns make it to UFA next year?
    —–

    Woodguy or Analytics Folks. Do you know if anyone has looked at using time range from shot data. Currently Corsi is just a count but if a time range was added it seems we’d have a better idea of possession. Eg. There was 4 SA and no SF in two minutes you are most likely getting hemmed in you own zone for that period of time.

  88. OilClog says:

    Where would the extra RHC play?

    McDavid isn’t giving up minutes

    Nuge’s assignment isn’t something a 3C can take on.

    Drai is too good to take off the middle of the ice.

    Letestu is filling in the cracks.

    I’d say this team is more in need of a Hemsky, veteran scoring winger RW that’s good in his own zone, can play with skill, keeps the C’s up the middle, adds speed to the bottom 6. Help Nuge on that second Powerplay unit.

    Hell just put Hemmer on Nuges wing.

  89. Frank the dog says:

    Oilanderp:
    Hitchcock did say in his post-game comments that although the Blues had lots of shots, the Oilers did a good job of keeping them from out on the perimeter.

    Rob and Reid echoed that sentiment on their AM radio post game show.

    Perhaps the high danger scoring chances bear this out, and this is all not just a mirage.

    Edit: Staples’ new article at the Journal also supports this.

    This will make the Bear happy.

  90. Water Fire says:

    OilClog: was the Hall trade truly an overpayment? Love Hall, but Larsson is the goods, hits, shoots, head on a swivel, skates, passes, and brings some nasty.. On the first pairing, while not getting his head kicked in..

    The trade can be an overpayment, and the team can end up better off. These two things aren’t mutually exclusive. It is why Chia did IMO.

  91. BONE207 says:

    Hey Walter Gretzky…nice post.

    I signed up at this sight about April 18th, 2015 because of the host. I listen to him religiously since then as well. I think him and I have a number of commonalities (CR, Hockey, same aged kids etc) but he’s much smarter at stats/players than I could ever hope. I have gotten smarter at the so called Fancy Stats (I think it should just be called the Mathy Stats as this site makes them so common that they are the norm and nothing fancy about them) but still miles to go. I missed the hub-bub the other day but this place and the many fine people who spend hours calculating and posting make the posts almost as enjoyable as the pieces the Host writes. I’ve already been accused of being an addict of the black web page & I hope the threat of taking away my Lowtide is just hyperbole. Keep up the good work 99% of you. As for the bad 1%…F U. Oh, also you Böökije.

  92. stevezie says:

    OilClog,

    I believe the idea is either we get that rhC and Drai becomes the Hemsky you speak of, or we get that right wing and Drai plays C.

  93. Bsquared says:

    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour:
    I’ll start this off with a disclaimer – I’m writing in response to some less wonderful things that have happened lately here on Lowetide. This is not a “hockey post” but more of an essay on the issue and values of this site. Those not interested should ignore, This is about formulating a heartfelt endorsement of our host who has been an exemplary a fan, a writer, a sports enthusiast and a person.

    First I was shocked and saddened to see LT’scomment a few days ago that he was seriously and imminently considering shutting this blog down for egregious behaviour, aimed at him and perhaps even his family. He did not enumerate exactly what led to his exasperation, but I gather that there is a fair bit of vitriol aimed his way regarding his position on trades, moves etc. This is of course absolutely uncalled for.

    This is such a wonderful site for people with a passion for hockey and a deep love of the Oilers (tough as it can be at times). I am sure I am not alone in saying losing this place would really diminish the hockey season completely. I can only say that whatever was said by whoever to make LT the upset is indefensible. To LT, I want you to know that I have the upmost respect for you and what you are as a person, as we get to glimpse from your wonderful writing and for your tireless dedication in making this site so vibrant

    Second I wanted to comment on the tone of a post that suggested that “opinion” has no place and that the only “value” here is from analytics. The exact post and words I’ve forgotten but the idea was that unless you are listing a table or graphical representation of the game for statistical breakdown ad interpretation basically you should shut up.

    I get that “opinion” carries little weight in a discussion. But this is a site for fans ofthe Oilers to communicate with an online community of like minded fans from all over the world. I personally come here for the wonderful writing from LT, the banter, the personalities, the information you just can’t find on your own about players, the AHL, prospects both Oiler and other teams and finally I come here to read stuff about the Oilers!I’m not into the math or stats or any of that but I do like hockey and I do love the Oilers. So I’d like to be able to chime in now and again with a thought or idea. I left another Oiler site because the tone there got to be so “cliquey” that if you didn’t chant the same phrases you were laughed at and ostracized.

    I like it here because people say things that are different. I don’t like when people attack others and I don’t like reading the “Debbie Downer” types who can see no positive in anything. So guess what? I skip that stuff, I don’t call out or shame anyone.

    Last, I’ll make a plea that we remember we are here because of the dedication of the host. Respect for him, personally and professionally as well as respect for each other should be the foremost principle. Opinions, ideas and mathematics can coexist and each element can bring something to the discussion.

    So how about we all move on from character assassinations and vitriol and enjoy this site and all the great information and contributors who al bring something?

    I apologize in advance if anyone feels this is out of place. I like this community and I’d like to see it continue and stay lively and fun and interesting.I thought long and hard before hitting send – I actually would have just directly messaged LT with this message, but I have to admit out in front of everyone here that I don’t know how to too that!

    Just my thoughts and my opinion. Maybe it isn’t necessary for me to have said all this – maybe you’ve all come to grips with this and I’m just wasting space. But as a frequent visitor her, I felt I needed t say this out loud, rather than just to my computer.

    Hope everyone has a great weekend! And thanks again to you LT for making this a thing! You have been a tower of strength and fairness. Sincerely, thank you.

    What he said! I like the discussion, ideas, insight, wit and sarcasm on this site. I can definitely do without the arguing and disrespect that goes on. We are all here because we are fans of the Oil. Thanks LT for providing my daily dose of Oil to keep me going!

  94. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot: 9.73
    9.71
    7.82
    9.03
    7.88

    past to present

    Thank you

  95. kinger_OIL says:

    Water Fire: The trade can be an overpayment, and the team can end up better off. These two things aren’t mutually exclusive. It is why Chia did IMO.

    – I get this point of view, but I’m not sure I agree with it.

    – Even if Hall is a better #1 RW than Larsson is a #1RHD, the relative impact on a team’s performance is far greater impacted by who is playing #1 RHD than the first line winger.

    – Solving your number # 1problem, RHD, and pocketing $1.8MM to help finance the replacement of the loss of Hall doesn’t seem that much of an overpayment to me: but that’s only my opinion

    – Certainly I prefer that $1.8MM savings to some plug that comes back to even out salaries

    – Sure maybe adding a 3rd round pick or B prospect looks better on paper, but whatever, I don’t walk away from the deal because of that.

    – Not having a #1RHD was not an option at all. Last year our #1 RHD by time played was Jultz

  96. Frank the dog says:

    theres oil in virginia: Polarization is the norm everywhere I look.It’s how “we” stay under “their” control.Divide and conquer, so to speak.While “D”s and “R”s are arguing with each other about how shitty the other one is, the banks reign and the country swirls down the bowl.(The dirty little secret is that they’re both largely the same in policy, wildly different in rhetoric.)

    The mentality is fostered by extreme statements that push people back into their respective corners, and away from any meaningful debate, which is why I hate those types of statements so much.

    I was once told that the difference between the R’s and the D’s was that the R’s reduce benefits and the D’s increase taxes.

  97. jm363561 says:

    Jonas Gustavsson is not satisfactory as a backup goalie – his SV% this year is a measly 100%.😀

  98. Admiral Ackbar says:

    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour:

    This is such a wonderful site for people with a passion for hockey and a deep love of the Oilers (tough as it can be at times). I am sure I am not alone in saying losing this place would really diminish the hockey season completely. I can only say that whatever was said by whoever to make LT the upset is indefensible. To LT, I want you to know that I have the upmost respect for you and what you are as a person, as we get to glimpse from your wonderful writing and for your tireless dedication in making this site so vibrant.

    Great post. Thank you for this. I agree 100%.

    Also, for those overvaluing statistics:

    Please study statistics. You’ll then know how highly flawed and how assumptive the current brand of analytics are. Yes, even dangerous fenwick (for all you cool kids out there).

    Having to read medical literature and clinical trials on a regular basis, I know that a quality of understanding of statistics is vital in debunking bad studies. Hockey statistics would only fall into a middle strength for quality of evidence (at best). It’s difficult to define a hockey player’s value with 3, 4 or even 5 reductive values.

    How a player is observed is still relevant.

  99. go_oil says:

    Water Fire,

    Agreed. I can see Hall as an overpayment, but I can appreciate the return of Larsson on the other side of the ledger to prevent HDSC’s.

    Watching the Oilers this year I can see more structure in their game with breakouts, and less turnovers in the neutral zone. Less chaos overall. But I think there’s still room for improvement around support all over the ice. But I see them winning more puck battles and better transition in their game.

    I think it’s tough seeing skill leaving the line-up (Hall, Yak, Schultz), but I think Chiarelli and Maclellan have done well in bringing a responsible, 2-way mindset to the group. I don’t fault the players that left – I think the Oilers have just had too many of the same high end skill players all coming into the league together, without support of proper veterans, or being thrust into roles where they were set up to fail.

    It’s encouraging to see Pakarinen, Slepyshev and Pitlick perhaps coming along as an option for the Pisani role on the right side – 2-way scorer, blend of skill and size. It’ll be interesting how the roster shakes out once the IR gets healthy. I think Cagguila brings a unique skills set – speed and physicality like a Gallagher – that benefits the team. And who goes away once everyone is healthy? Finally some depth, with even the likes of Khaira down in Bakersfield.

    Lot’s of room for improvement with Corsi – but I’ll take the better HDSC’s!

    I’ll also add that Nurse looks a lot more settled out there in his game on the 3rd pair.

  100. Oddspell says:

    frjohnk: Flames and Avs were mid 40’s for corsi, scoring chances and high danger chances.

    Oilers are at 46 corsi and in the 50’s for scoring and high danger chances.

    I’m late to this conversation, but what are the chances that those teams started with HDSC in the 50s, but as the season progressed, they were scouted and the HDSC regressed to their corsi?

  101. dustrock says:

    Chaos Magian:
    JustWatt,
    http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-pdo-numbers-save-plus-shooting-percentage/2016/
    —–

    Lowetide or others. Any chance Chia is hoping Shattenkirk or Burns make it to UFA next year?
    —–

    I’m sure they are, Burns in particular. Chia doesn’t have a huge amount of cap space and needs to be thinking about McDavid and Drai contracts, on top of anyone else.

    The problem with both those players is like Seabrook, they are going to be looking for cap hit and term.

    Burns is what, 32? He would be an unbelievable player for the Oilers, but for how long? We’ve already got Lucic having a cap anchor contract.

  102. fifthcartel says:

    I think there have been a few sources saying if Shattenkirk would have signed an extension he’d be an Oiler today, and Hall would be a Blue.

    There was even media saying Edmonton was ok with an unsigned Shattenkirk but wanted a forward added, but St. Louis didn’t want to so might be able to guess it was a pretty decent forward.

  103. Centre of attention says:

    Time to check TSN and read some wonderful opinion articles… http://www.tsn.ca/video/will-the-leafs-become-the-new-blackhawks~978132

    Oh. Ok then.

    *chugs bleach*

  104. Bruce Wayne says:

    If Larsson were a #1 D, then no one would think that trading Hall was an overpayment. Unfortunately, there is no evidence that Larsson is a #1 D. He’s good defensively, but he doesn’t have magic powers, he’s been beat plenty the past five games. He’s a good passer, but he’s not a scoring D.

    He’s a nice player. He’s not a star player.

    As for the divide, it is because there is a real divide. There is the new majority, who are fans first. Who will believe the team is good when they win and will be happy. And if the team loses they will be angry. Their response will be driven by this attitude. Always. It is what they are.

    And then there are those who come here for analysis, who love the truth more than the Oilers. These people will be hated and persecuted by the fans, for they do not believe in the gods of the city.

    It is the way of the world.

  105. Richard S.S. says:

    LT said:
    3. Acquire RHC with some skill (tried for Kris Versteeg).

    Drake Caggiula, until injury, was being tried out as LHC who could also play LW when not used at Centre. Can he play 2 C and 2 LW if needed? That’s still the question.

    The Oilers still need a RHC who can also play RW when not used as Centre. Be nice of he could also play 2 C and 2 RW if needed. That they still don’t have.

    The Oilers still need a Lander-plus Center/Wing type to be 13th/14th Forward and able to play 3 C, 3 W, 4 C and 4 W if needed. That they might have.

  106. Oil2Oilers says:

    Ryan Sproul sounds like he did OK in his season debut last night. Him and Xavier Ouellet seem to be battling it out for the Wings NHL job.

    How much would you have to add to Fayne, at a 50% retain, to pry him loose? Big, fast, Right handed and with a bomb of a shot seems tailor made for the Oilers.

  107. Frank the dog says:

    John Chambers:
    Bank Shot,

    This is great stuff. Thanks for surfacing this.

    My guess is that the Oilers had a high sh% the year Kruger coached and a decline under Eakins.

    Playing a tight defensive zone system that limits kill floor shots, and that capitalizes on transition opportunities seems to be a thing. Also jives with those stats that surfaced over the summer showing that most goals are scored within 10 seconds of a zone entry.

    Conclusion – endless cycling and peppering the goal with point shots is a strategy for possession and high Corsi, but lightning-strike attacking could produce a similar offensive output.

    Back when we were debating the merits of Ralph and Dallas, the prevailing opinion was that SH% was a random factor that equally randomly regressed to the mean.
    I believed then and stubbornly believe now that things considered as random are seen as such are simply aspects where insufficient data exists to determine the variables.
    I also think that Krueger and Eakins were at opposite ends of the coaching spectrum, a point well argued in the past with lots of people with concrete views.
    But I would be interested to find out what correlation existed even then between Krueger and Eakins’ HDSC “s and their SH%’s, and I would expect that there would be a positive correlation. I.e. That god old common sense would predicate a higher SH% With a higher % of shots being HDSC’s.
    That is why I was so contemptuous of Eakins strategy of simply circling the offensive zone with the pick and taking dozens of low danger shots from the perimeters.

  108. Derek says:

    I played around a bit at http://www.corsica.hockey/teams/ today.

    I believe that the disparity between the actual record of the team, the corgis and the scoring chances is explainable by score effects at this point.

    They have the fifth worst 5v5 CF % at 46.36. Pretty ugly.
    Their 5v5 CF% while leading is even worse – 43.69. However among teams with a lead that’s actually middle of the packish for the NHL at 18th.
    The cause for optimism is Edmonton ranks fifth in the league for TOI while leading (107 minutes).

    They’ve spent a whole shitload of time defending the lead which we all know leads to more shots against, but so far they’ve been able to win the chances battle which is great.

    Their CF% while trailing is 55.45 which is once again middle of the league (17th). But they’ve only trailed for 62 minutes so their overall CF% is skewed.

    I’d guess they’re probably a middle of the pack team, and the corgis will start to support that as the team plays more games.

  109. Frank the dog says:

    Does anybody else think the Oil are in danger of a repeat Buffalo type game?
    Who do we have that can successfully fight big buff as he skates around wreaking havoc on our players?
    Who will get injured this time?
    Who thinks we can sustain winning when at least 1 player gets injured every game?

  110. YKOil says:

    Chiarelli knew he would lose the Hall trade on value.

    Shero knew Chiarelli would lose the Hall trade on value.

    However, as bad as Chiarelli needed Larsson, Shero was never getting a clean shot at a player like Hall again.

    So, for Chiarelli (imo) the option to lose with honour was there. It still would have been a loss but:

    Hall, Korpikoski (Oilers covering some salary) and a later year 5th
    FOR
    Larsson and a later year 3rd

    could be classified as ‘losing with honour’.

  111. Ancient Oilers Fan says:

    I’m a little slow as usual and if this has already been discussed I’m sorry for wasting you time.

    In G didohdeeirjeien’s post game analysis is after the STL game, the picture of where shots came from with Nurse & Gryba on the ice showed all of the shots, and there were a lot, came from Gryba,s side.

    Well one backhand is shown as right in the middle but all on Gryba’s side sounds better for my narrative.

    I’m really pulling for Nurse to be a stud D.

    Does this mean STL was targeting Gryba which says something.

    Was Nurse that good at suppressing shots?

    That picture was really stark in it’s one sidedness.

    Without this site I might hate retirement.

  112. whale says:

    Been away for a few days. Tried to access General Fanager. Oops. Does anyone have another site that works. Really miss Capgeek as well.

  113. vinotintazo says:

    whale:
    Been away for a few days. Tried to access General Fanager. Oops. Does anyone have another site that works. Really miss Capgeek as well.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/

  114. Professor Q says:

    I think Edmonton should have went with the off-white version of their old classic jerseys tomorrow; with the red-orange bars.

  115. jake70 says:

    Geez guys…..this isn’t the first 4 games of 1990 playoffs. Oilers oilering…lol.

  116. Reptile Charlie says:

    These guys are much slower than I remember.

    (Except Selane)

  117. whale says:

    vinotintazo,

    Thanks. Appreciate it.

  118. Revolved says:

    Derek,

    Woodguy,

    I agree that I have been concerned with the wins racking up despite poor possession numbers, but I think Derek is bang on. The site Puckonnet.net has score and venue adjusted numbers for all teams thus far and with these adjustments the Oiler’s rank 10th in corsi% (52.5), 10th in Fenwick% (53.8) and 10th in shots% (53.1). We have played with the lead a lot, with predictable consequences, but it is impressive we have managed to keep thar possession away from Ricki’s box.

    In terms of the sustainability of a high shooting%, I will just say I was struck by the rink map G published of McDavid’s lines shots for vs St.Louis (everything was from the crease area). I feel like I’m constantly shouting ‘Shoot!’ at the screen, so if they’re waiting for better looks, maybe it could have some sustain? Definitely ripe for research, and I hope you do look into xGF% through history WG. Great stuff!

  119. Chaos Magian says:

    Ancient Oilers Fan,

    My read there is they faced Yaks line. He registered 1 shot in the game and not against them. The shots all came from Berglund and Jaskin. Their forwards were mostly Maroon, Drai, Slepy. They may have been targeting the right side or both teams were weak on the right side.

  120. Admiral Ackbar says:

    http://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/17816613/espn-magazine-2016-ultimate-standings

    Oh my, this is disappointing but adds validity to those complaining about the Oilers Franchise. Only the Canucks and Leafs rate worse for NHL teams and the Oilers are compared with the likes of the San Francisco 49ers and the Detroit Lions franchises. Yikes.

    I’ll never stop loving the Oilers, but this is alarming.

  121. John Chambers says:

    YKOil,

    One thing we didn’t see happen this summer was teams take on real salary in exchange for draft picks.

    Now, Arizona traded for the insured contracts of Datsyuk and Bolland, earning Lawson Crouse and draft picks in the process, but it didn’t appear that teams were willing to take on real salary, in our case Korpikoski or Fayne.

    But you’re right -Chiarelli could’ve at the very least framed the notion that there were Hall for (Trouba, Barrie, or Faulk) offers that demanded that it was going to take a 2nd rounder to win the bid for Hall.

  122. Professor Q says:

    Why was Tikkanen’s goal called off?

  123. Professor Q says:

    Reptile Charlie:
    These guys are much slower than I remember.

    (Except Selane)

    He’s surprisingly pretty slow, though.

  124. Oil2Oilers says:

    They should smuggle McDavid out with his rocket skates in a Tikkanen sweater just to show the speed contrast.

  125. Bag of Pucks says:

    While Russell and Gustavsson may not be the ideal solutions, they are vets on short contracts. Given that Chiarelli likely sees the longterm solutions to those roster spots coming from the farm, he has to get some marks for decent cap & roster management in the interim, no?

  126. Richard S.S. says:

    In all sports there are a certain number of games, that no matter what a Team does, they will always lose. In all sports there are a certain number of games, that no matter what a Team does, they will always win. The remaining games determine how a Team finishes and those are controllable.

    Thus far, the Oilers are 4-1 in controllable games. The Buffalo game was winnable if they played like they did verses Calgary. They just have to learn days off occur when Hockey’s over and stay ready to play until then.

  127. Gret99zky says:

    Frank the dog:
    Does anybody else think the Oil are in danger of a repeat Buffalo type game?
    Who do we have that can successfully fight big buff as he skates around wreaking havoc on our players?
    Who will get injured this time?
    Who thinks we can sustain winning when at least 1 player gets injured every game?

    Brace yourselves, injuries are coming. The NHL season is dark and full of terrors.

  128. jake70 says:

    So #14 scored a nice goal with a nice pass from #14

  129. Centre of attention says:

    The Oilers just traded Lidstrom to the Jets for a first round pick.

    What.

  130. Professor Q says:

    Centre of attention:
    The Oilers just traded Lidstrom to the Jets for a first round pick.

    What.

    What?

  131. Centre of attention says:

    Professor Q: What?

    It was only for the third period of the old-timers Heritage Classic game, and the first round pick was for the next heritage classic.

    It was just a gimmick 😛

  132. Slocanoil says:

    Centre of attention,

    Looked at about 10 sites.
    No tv, 15 min I’ll never get back!

  133. Georges says:

    Woodguy: I’ve looked at PDO sustainability in the past and iirc the only it sustains is with elite goalering.

    Luongo, Price and Lunqvist can do it for a team.

    The only team I saw with above average sh% that stayed there for more than 2 years was ANA.

    A high sh% is usually not sustainable over multiple seasons, whereas SV% can be.

    Hi WG. G posted a link to the Steve Burtch article on meaningful NHL stats a few days back. Burtch found zero year-to-year correlation for PDO at the team level. I’m assuming this forms (at least part of) the basis for viewing PDO as random or luck-driven and not a sustainable quality of teams.

    Just for fun, I’m going to take the position that PDO isn’t random and does capture the skill level of a team.

    If all teams have the same skill level then each team’s PDO in a given year will be drawn from a common league-wide distribution. In this case, a team has a 50/50 chance of being above or below the PDO median and its PDO performance in this year is independent of its PDO performance in the previous year. This would lead to a low year-to-year correlation of PDO.

    If, on the other hand, some teams have more or less skill than the typical NHL team, then their PDO performance in a given year will be drawn from their distinct PDO distribution. In this case, more (less) skilled teams will be more likely to consistently outperform (underperform) median PDO. Note that this could also lead to a low year-to-year correlation for PDO, so long as it’s only a small number of teams that are more/less skilled than the typical team.

    So, if I’m right, I should be able to pick some historical teams with really skilled/talented players that consistently outperformed PDO (or just Sh% or Sv%). I’ll of course go with any team that had Gretzky, Lemieux, or the young Jagr. I’ll go with Hasek and Roy and Brodeur. Forsberg and Sakic (and Hejduk and Tanguay). Early Yzerman. Hull and Oates?? Selanne and Kariya’s (and Getzlaf and Perry’s) Ducks. Crosby (and Malkin) and Ovechkin. Stamkos. Price, Luongo, and Lundqvist. Kiprusoff’s run in Calgary. The Sedins. Alfredsson’s Senators.

    I’m also going to bet against low talent expansion teams and say they had consistently bad PDO (or just Sh% or Sv% if they somehow managed to get talent on one side early).

    I’m cherry picking, because it’s easy to see who had talent looking back. Those players outperformed by definition. And I’ve mostly avoided naming offensive players from possession teams like the Wings, Hawks, Devils, and Kings.

    As far as the right now, if I’m going by my theory, I’m also going to bet on the McDavid Oilers to sustain on PDO. He’s a great player, and I think that’s the effect that great players have on percentage stats.

  134. Bank Shot says:

    I think it’s a foregone conclusion that the Oilers will fall back from 2nd in the NHL. I still think they probably don’t make the playoffs but a door is definitely open for then this season.

    I like that we are discussing if the Oilers current success is a fluke rather than championing an improved corsi and another 0-4 start like the last three seasons.

  135. Dee Dee says:

    There are alot of different ways to celebrate being fans of this @#%#@$%ing hockey team.

    If number crunching weird stats is your thing, then awesome, crunch away.

    If analyzing styles and trying to determine if trades were lost or won is your thing then go for it.

    Stating a hypothesis or opinion is a way to start a dialogue. Rebutting or refuting an opinion with another opinion is good to keep conversations flowing.

    The problem as I see it lately is that some folks are starting to attack other posters with some rather vicious name calling as opposed to refuting ideas.

    The passage of time will reveal all truths. By the end of the year we will be able to determine how bad of a win or loss the Hall trade was. Until then, quoting the Dude, “That’s just like, your opinion, man”.

    I’ve been a fan of this team since their very first game and I’ve often thought that God has cursed us for the success in the 80’s and decided to make us pay by giving us some of the crappiest hockey ever played in the last 10 years.

    I know that First Overall draft picks aren’t magic unicorns that have been sprinkled with magic pixie dust and should be locked away never to be traded, unless I guess, for another First Overall.

    First Overall gets you a better contract on your first contract, that’s it. They are regular players 98% of the time.

    It was pretty clear to me that Yak still has some skills, he showed it in his first game back after being traded to St Louis, he was noticeable on the ice. Which makes it clear he was dogging it here, feel sorry for the guy, wish him the best. If he had played that well here he would have been on the first line. Nice to see him smiling again.

    Sad that the Oilers had so many First Overalls that he got buried in the pile.

    Lefty Righty defence? I suppose it makes a difference, all other things being equal. I’ll still take Russell over Schultz as an upgrade every time. They played hockey for 100 years without giving a crap so I don’t really understand why that has to trump all other factors these days.

    The last 10 years of Oilers hockey reminds me of Shawshank Redemption and I felt like I was crawling through a pipe full of shit for 10 years. That does tend to affect you, and probably one of the reasons we are all a little paranoid and waiting for the wheels to fall off. But we did get McDavid, which might have made it worthwhile.

    But I just watched this team beat St Louis, FREAKING ST LOUIS, at their own game. They didn’t get beat up and end up with sand kicked in their faces and their girlfriends stolen. They didn’t collapse into a defensive shell and ice the puck 1,000 times and lose it.

    Lucic was the best player who wasn’t a goalie on the ice. He beat out McDavid for a star, and I started to get a weird feeling the last few minutes of the game. It wasn’t that soul sucking sphincter tightening fear and revulsion that I usually felt during the end of an Oilers game, it made me feel warm and happy, it’s been so long, could it be pride?

    4-1 to start the season, with 2 WINS AGAINST FREAKING CALGARY.

    So, excuse me, I’m just going to revel in the moment and enjoy the fact that the Oilers are not in their usual position at the bottom of the league and enjoy what it feels like to win for a change.

    And I’ll let tomorrow worry about itself. Maybe the wheels will fall off, or maybe, they won’t.

  136. Woodguy says:

    Chaos Magian:
    JustWatt,
    http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-pdo-numbers-save-plus-shooting-percentage/2016/
    —–

    Lowetide or others. Any chance Chia is hoping Shattenkirk or Burns make it to UFA next year?
    —–

    Woodguy or Analytics Folks. Do you know if anyone has looked at using time range from shot data. Currently Corsi is just a count but if a time range was added it seems we’d have a better idea of possession.Eg. There was 4 SA and no SF in two minutes you are most likely getting hemmed in you own zone for that period of time.

    Yes, xGF and *I think* DFF takes into account time of shots.

    I think its a shot within 3 seconds of another shot is considered a rebound and given a higher danger rating.

  137. Woodguy says:

    Georges: Hi WG. G posted a link to the Steve Burtch article on meaningful NHL stats a few days back. Burtch found zero year-to-year correlation for PDO at the team level. I’m assuming this forms (at least part of) the basis for viewing PDO as random or luck-driven and not a sustainable quality of teams.

    Just for fun, I’m going to take the position that PDO isn’t random and does capture the skill level of a team.

    If all teams have the same skill level then each team’s PDO in a given year will be drawn from a common league-wide distribution. In this case, a team has a 50/50 chance of being above or below the PDO median and its PDO performance in this year is independent of its PDO performance in the previous year. This would lead to a low year-to-year correlation of PDO.

    If, on the other hand, some teams have more or less skill than the typical NHL team, then their PDO performance in a given year will be drawn from their distinct PDO distribution. In this case, more (less) skilled teams will be more likely to consistently outperform (underperform) median PDO. Note that this could also lead to a low year-to-year correlation for PDO, so long as it’s only a small number of teams that are more/less skilled than the typical team.

    So, if I’m right, I should be able to pick some historical teams with really skilled/talented players that consistently outperformed PDO (or just Sh% or Sv%). I’ll of course go with any team that had Gretzky, Lemieux, or the young Jagr. I’ll go with Hasek and Roy and Brodeur. Forsberg and Sakic (and Hejduk and Tanguay). Early Yzerman. Hull and Oates?? Selanne and Kariya’s (and Getzlaf and Perry’s) Ducks. Crosby (and Malkin) and Ovechkin. Stamkos. Price, Luongo, and Lundqvist. Kiprusoff’s run in Calgary. The Sedins. Alfredsson’s Senators.

    I’m also going to bet against low talent expansion teams and say they had consistently bad PDO (or just Sh% or Sv% if they somehow managed to get talent on one side early).

    I’m cherry picking, because it’s easy to see who had talent looking back. Those players outperformed by definition. And I’ve mostly avoided naming offensive players from possession teams like the Wings, Hawks, Devils, and Kings.

    As far as the right now, if I’m going by my theory, I’m also going to bet on the McDavid Oilers to sustain on PDO. He’s a great player, and I think that’s the effect that great players have on percentage stats.

    I look forward to your analysis.

    When you look at a whole population like Burtch and others do, there is no meaningful correlations, but I agree that some teams, especially the ones with high end goalies can sustain above 100.

  138. Bruce Wayne says:

    Georges,

    This is a reasonable hypothesis. Indeed, I’m pretty sure you are going to find what you want to find. An AHL team that played an NHL schedule will have a low PDO, I expect.

    The problem is that this is post facto analysis (i.e. cherry picking). In any present analysis you have no way of knowing in advance which of these teams are historically great on the basis of their PDO, if all you know is their PDO. Thus using PDO as evidence of excellence is a classic case of question begging (in the precise sense of the term). This is the mistake Ricky makes over and over again.

    Greg Maddux had historically low BABIP pretty much his whole career, however you can’t pick Greg Maddux out of a lineup on the basis of his BABIP because there are lots of guys who temporarily have low BABIIP without being Greg Maddux.

    The other issue, is that if the Oilers outscore their Corsi, or shots, or whatever, it is almost certainly do to McDavid. Which means we can’t credit the change to Chiarelli, or mistake McDavid’s once in a lifetime ability by giving Larsson magical shot quality supression abilities.

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