G6 2016-17: OILERS AT JETS (OUTDOOR GAME)

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers are in Winnipeg today to face the Jets. Dustin Byfuglien usually runs over one of Edmonton’s defensemen and at least one of the team’s giant wingers will fall into the Oiler goalie. The best reason to visit Winnipeg? Two points—and if the town team can keep on trucking, certain Pacific Divsion teams are going to begin sweating. The worst thing about today? Different rink, different bounces, different lighting, same giant Byfuglien. Two points, no injuries. Deal?

BETTER CHECK AGAIN, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 1-4-0, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in October 2016: 4-1-0, goal differential +4

In Game 6 one year ago, the Oilers won 2-1 in overtime against the Vancouver Canucks (courtesy Lauri Korpikoski). Anders Nilsson stopped 33 of 34 and Nail Yakupov scored in what would be his final season with the team.

OILERS FORWARDS, BY NUMBERS

forwards-after-5

  • Two fun items that are unsustainable: Tyler Pitlick scoring at close to 5.00/60 at 5×5, and Jesse Puljujarvi at almost 55 percent in possession. Strange days indeed.
  • Seven players are over 2.00/60 at even strength, that is a good number.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Benoit Pouliot will be better as the season wears along, but it is kind of incredible that the team could be 4-1-0 with so little coming from the 2line.
  • Connor McDavid is posting 2.92/60, as is Leon Draisaitl. They rank in a tie for No. 26 so far among forwards.
  • Jordan Eberle ranks No. 18.
  • All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com.

OILERS DEFENSE, BY NUMBERS

defense-oct-23

  • The Oilers Corsi for 5×5 percentage is 46.5, ranking the team in a tie for No. 24.  That is not a good number, and cause for concern.
  • Among regulars, Darnell Nurse is tops, and the third pairing work with Brandon Davidson and Eric Gryba seems to be a good spot for him. Moving up the lineup has not been successful so far for the young blue.
  • Kris Russell is around average for Edmonton’s defense, and that is an improvement. Russell was over 50 percent in years with the Blue Jackets, well below that number in Calgary. Playing with Sekera in this system, can he emerge as a 50 percent possession defender?
  • Klefbom—Larsson have played the tough minutes and are hovering around 45. They will need to improve that number, and as we have seen so far the easy way to do it is play when McDavid is out there. I think this is a good pairing, but number needs to be better in possession.

You folks are running ahead with great metrics, but this old observer still likes Corsi Rel when it comes to sussing out defensemen.

  1. Darnell Nurse 2.0
  2. Andrej Sekera -0.7
  3. Kris Russell -0.9
  4. Oscar Klefbom -1.0
  5. Adam Larsson -1.2
  6. Eric Gryba -2.0
  7. Source

Considering we are so early in the year, and the top 4D gap is so small, I would suggest all of these boats are about even—although it is nice to see Darnell Nurse posting a solid number in these early moments.

MATT BENNING

The Oilers recalled Matt Benning on the weekend, sending Ben Betker down. I imagine we will see the young college defender play in his first NHL game soon, it will be interesting to see where he plays. The logical spot is on the third pairing with Darnell Nurse, but that is a very young pair. He is a good skater and a smart defender, no idea how they will work him in with a veteran blue. Sekera—Benning, Nurse—Russell? That might be it.

JUJHAR KHAIRA

Jujhar Khaira didn’t play for the Condors last night, picking up an injury in Manitoba that has him day-to-day. Bakersfield does not have a lot going beyond the 1line (Hamilton-Khaira-Beck) and only Scott Allen found the back of the net. Laurent Brossoit had a .920 save percentage, The Hamilton-Kris Newbury-Beck line had 14 shots, that is a strong game. The Condors had basically three CHL prospect forwards (Kyle Platzer, Mitch Moroz and Braden Christoffer) in the lineup, and they didn’t manage a shot on goal. Your prospects this season—Khaira aside—are college men. Seriously.

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leadfarmer

Younger Oil:
A couple random things:

1. After tonight, 22/30 teams are considered to be .500 or better. That is just bizarre to me. The NHL NEEDS to change it’s point structure if a team that wins 20% of their games can be considered equal to a team that wins 50% of their games.

2. Heard about this a couple of weeks ago, but forgot to mention it here, but Tyler Benson played with a brother of one of my friends in SSAC, and the team has kept moderately in touch, and they heard that a lot of the time that Benson missed last year (from the cyst) was as a result of an infection from an ingrown ass hair. Doesn’t change much, and could be untrue, but shows that part of his injury history isn’t his fault, and that he has the easiest injury to poke fun at since Dustin “Pancakes” Penner.

Its actually a pilonidal cyst so much more than an “infected ass hair”

SwedishPoster

Lowetide,

McDavid truly changes everything. Swedish TV had an interview with Klefbom before the game last night and he mentioned how great it was for his own developement to practice every day with a guy of McDavids caliber. Both from an inspirational point of view and just from trying to contain him in practice.

JimmyV1965

Chachi: By the fancies they got whipped in the first, returned the favour in the second and then score effects were in full effect.

By my eye, the first period was the worst hockey we played all year. Talbot bailed us out and we came out much stronger in the second.

Younger Oil

A couple random things:

1. After tonight, 22/30 teams are considered to be .500 or better. That is just bizarre to me. The NHL NEEDS to change it’s point structure if a team that wins 20% of their games can be considered equal to a team that wins 50% of their games.

2. Heard about this a couple of weeks ago, but forgot to mention it here, but Tyler Benson played with a brother of one of my friends in SSAC, and the team has kept moderately in touch, and they heard that a lot of the time that Benson missed last year (from the cyst) was as a result of an infection from an ingrown ass hair. Doesn’t change much, and could be untrue, but shows that part of his injury history isn’t his fault, and that he has the easiest injury to poke fun at since Dustin “Pancakes” Penner.

Zelepukin

Lowetide: The interesting thing about this Oilers team is the gap between McDavid on ice and OFF ice. That is going to be fascinating to watch. Personally, I am thrilled the coach is running him 20+ minutes a night. When you have the best horse in the race, let that horse run.

I’ve been thinking about commenting on this for awhile but I’m actually really interested in the McD effect from a mentally fast perspective.

To put it in context, (google couldn’t find any article on it) during one of the World Cup games they said that someone was tracking player speed (possibly through an RFID chip in the jerseys) and McD coasts on average something like 2-4km/h faster than anyone else on the team and at full speed was 6-8km/hr or something like that but I definitely remember the coasting aspect.

Now if you’ve ever played hockey you know that when you get thrown into playing with someone substantially faster or even a game at a higher level, it’s a huge adjustment in your timing. How you react to that player, how fast you pass to them, everything you do forces you to think faster.

I know I’ve picked up on it several times from training camp to now where guys have had to adjust to either get moving faster or pass the puck quicker or farther ahead of the player, because of McD. Some times it’s not even McD, like for instance I recall Eberle picking up a puck off the boards and because he only had a split second to feed it into the middle but he knew someone was circling, passed it well in advance of the player probably because he thought it was McD but ended up being Pou or Nuge. He made the right pass but this higher resting speed of McD has essentially raised the pace of the entire team… which is awesome.

Wolfie

I know this place enjoys a good yarn from time to time so I will give my recap of an extraordinary weekend….

Our host LT often regales us with stories of his Dad and other people of things he loves.

For me, this Heritage Classic was about celebrating Family, Friends and Hockey. I’m pretty sure it was the same for many in attendance and watching.

Lots of stuff I could go on about.. the symmetry of the old Oilers with Wayne and the new Oilers with Connor… a potentially excellent opponent in Winnipeg if they keep building right…. they have some elite talent… Scheifele/Ducky and Selanne/Laine…. the connections are almost eerie.

The Oilers are much improved this year. They don’t give nearly as many 5 alarm chances.

The Oilers come in with confidence starting to build. You can see it. It’s palpable… Lucic has that nasty swagger like Messier used to. He might no score as much but he won’t hesitate to put an elbow into your mouth… Especially if someone looks at Connor the wrong way.

O Canada starts and it’s getting close to the part where the crowd yells “TRUE NORTH”. Every NHLer in the league knows it’s legend… The ground shook and the air echoed and vibrated when we expressed our pride… This one was the biggest and loudest one yet… 33,000 ready to explode in full throats should the home side give them reason to.

The emotion of the crowd is what fueled the Jets in the first. They came out hard and carried the play but Talbot was on lockdown. It could have been 3 or 4 zip early. But the Oilers regrouped and gathered themselves. The second period started ominously with penalty trouble but the Oilers catch a break with a bad bounce on Byfuglien. 1-0!!!

The tide continues to turn… McDavid starting to make his mark… Beauty feed to Nurse…. Bam 2-0.

Then I heard Nuge say(they put mics close to the action)”Screw this… those guys at LTs place think I’ve never scored 50 points before”… Nuge-Benny-Kassian 3-0!

Too bad Dr Drai didn’t get in on the fun. Jesse wired a few with purpose…

I think this team might start making some noise… I really hate to say that because Oilers…

Solid victory in tricky conditions.

The Alumni game yesterday went exactly as it was supposed to. Messier can still wire it. Selanne too…

It would have been neat if the NHL brought the Cup to the event…. Coolest trophy on earth should be shown off more..

So this weekend was perfect. Family, Friends and Hockey…. The old Jets exact some revenge for yesteryear. While the new Oilers make an early season statement…

fuzzy muppet

I know I’m a Fuddy duddy, but even I am excited about this start.

They’re relevant past Halloween for a change!

GMB3

Lowetide,

It would be nice if he could step in so we could replace an expiring contract with an ELC. Especially in the top 6. Breathing room for the inevitable cap crisis.

Which is the main reason that everytime Drai puts up a multi-point game, the small Ebenezer Scrooge part of me cringes a bit.

dangilitis

OK, its not a common problem, but what do you do when the 5×5 misses a significant game-changing HDCF that happened 4×5?

Bos8

Ice Sage: Inversely related to his pubis quotient

Snortle

Ice Sage

GMB3:
If Tyler Benson maintains his level of play over the last two weeks, what are the chances he is good enough to steal a roster spot next season?

Inversely related to his pubis quotient

GMB3

If Tyler Benson maintains his level of play over the last two weeks, what are the chances he is good enough to steal a roster spot next season?

Bos8

Reptile Charlie: Kleftomaniac and Larssony.

Now that’s, a Classic..

N64

Gerta Rauss: I think the kids are calling them AdamBom

Kleftomaniac and Larssony.

99266in87

Not sure of the crediblity of this but murphyslaw74 on Twitter reporting Lindholm is available now.

Centre of attention

It’s only 9:30…

There is still so much time to drink. Oh dear

Bos8

Russel is playing on his off side. Every time I see him defer and pass to Sekera, I’m reminded ‘Smart Man’. Better forehand than backhand. Russel plays within himself, “Accentuates the Positve”.

He and Sekera are in the book under, ‘Exemplary Small and Smaller’ D.

Gordies Elbow

flyfish1168: Regehr was good during the era he played in. He would be to slow and probably 10% of his defensive work would end of being called in today’s game.

Yep.

Larsson’s a different player, with at least league average footspeed.

He’s more nasty than I would have thought, but looking at comments from NJ fans, this is his game.

Much heavier game than I expected.

Pouzar

Ebsonfire,

SCF% was a thing last year.

Ebsonfire

Ok I’ll try taking a turn on the measured optimism bandwagon. If I make enough mental zigzags I’m bound to predict the actual results, right? (I’m only joking. (While subconsciously believing this strategy is sound.))

Wins speak for themselves. We have reason to be pleased with the play we have seen because it has led to wins.

The underlying stats speak for themselves. We have reason to be concerned with the long-term implications of being outshot and out-possessed game after game. Corsi is still a thing, folks.

Russell’s ‘off the glass and out every time’ would seem, from a Corsi perspective, to invite a statistical certainty of increased goals against. It is a kind of turnover that is vastly preferable to an in zone turnover, but will still result in loss of possession and goals against. We need to be better at preventing zone entry to defray what this tactic will cost us, while he needs to add more ‘quick up’ passes to his repertoire. If we accomplish this he is a godsend.

Nuge has got to bear down in those faceoffs. He has been in the league too long now. This is unacceptable for someone in his position. He ought to be working on it every day. I’m not worried about the scoring, he has the chops, but when he is not contributing on the scoresheet he has to be helping us POSSESS.

Now for my fervent, sweaty belief. If the Oil can play more games like today; learn to hold onto those leads, play aggressively while ahead, and avoid getting too high on themselves, we have a winner here. A sweet, beautiful, winner – and all those people that were mean to us can suck on it.

Pouzar

Gerta Rauss: I think the kids are calling them AdamBom

Fine but keep em off my lawn!

Chachi

tcho:
Fancies did not really like that game. I wonder if the is “the Khabibulin Anomaly” again? Sure hope it’s for real.

By the fancies they got whipped in the first, returned the favour in the second and then score effects were in full effect.

Gerta Rauss

Pouzar:
Klef/Lars…what a game.

I think the kids are calling them AdamBom

flyfish1168

Gordies Elbow: Just so you know, I hated Robyn Regehr.

Hated.

He was a nasty player, and deserved more calls against.

Larsson’s a better defender than Regehr, and just as hard to play against.

Yeesh.

Regehr was good during the era he played in. He would be to slow and probably 10% of his defensive work would end of being called in today’s game.

Gordies Elbow

flyfish1168:
Larssons play is really growing on me. His cross checks, elbowing and hisgritty play is borderlinebut not enough to be called. Love it.

Just so you know, I hated Robyn Regehr.

Hated.

He was a nasty player, and deserved more calls against.

Larsson’s a better defender than Regehr, and just as hard to play against.

Yeesh.

Water Fire

Side:
Feeling much better about this team after each game.Not just because they’re winning (which helps), but because they actually look like a team that’s winning because they’re playing as a team and they’re playing with consistency.Compared to previous years where, when the Oilers beat better teams I couldn’t help but feel it was because the better team had an off night, or because a handful of Oilers were playing better than usual (like the goalie), or it was just because of pure luck.

Even when the Oilers lost to Buffalo, they looked like a team that still wanted to win. They didn’t look like a team that just wanted to move onto the next game and hope it went better.

Old me would think a win against STL was not likely and would hope the Oilers would just put on a decent show.

Optimistic me thought the Oilers would beat STL 4-1 and lose to Winnipeg today.

Reality has been much more enjoyable.Hopefully they can keep it up.

While things haven’t gone perfectly and mistakes have been made I think we are seeing the results of a roster with 23 NHL players on it. It has been a long time.

It can get better, McLellan can get better, Chia can get better players. If they do our dreams will be realized.

Ryan

I haven’t watched a single Hawks game this season.

Are these lines to be trusted?

http://www2.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/lines/19/chicago-blackhawks

If so, who is Tyler Motte and how is Richard Panik leading the NHL in goals scored?

Lastly, what is the age/weight cutoff for the skinny ties that Talbot and McDavid wore in their interview?

who

Oil2Oilers: He is becoming nasty too, making him pay boy’s

He is a much better skater than chara ever was. I was laughed at last year when I suggested a hall for Myers trade but in hindsight I think it would have been good value.
Jets have a ton of talent up front but they are pretty thin on d. I can see why they want a similar dman back. Still think edmonton may be a pretty good match.

tcho

Fancies did not really like that game. I wonder if the is “the Khabibulin Anomaly” again? Sure hope it’s for real.

Pouzar

Klef/Lars…what a game.

Side

Feeling much better about this team after each game. Not just because they’re winning (which helps), but because they actually look like a team that’s winning because they’re playing as a team and they’re playing with consistency. Compared to previous years where, when the Oilers beat better teams I couldn’t help but feel it was because the better team had an off night, or because a handful of Oilers were playing better than usual (like the goalie), or it was just because of pure luck.

Even when the Oilers lost to Buffalo, they looked like a team that still wanted to win. They didn’t look like a team that just wanted to move onto the next game and hope it went better.

Old me would think a win against STL was not likely and would hope the Oilers would just put on a decent show.

Optimistic me thought the Oilers would beat STL 4-1 and lose to Winnipeg today.

Reality has been much more enjoyable. Hopefully they can keep it up.

tcho

Pouzar,

Thanks Pouzar. (lol, and LT!)

Water Fire

jp: And then, don’t forget to scroll down.

To the very bottom

Pouzar

dangilitis: I was on talbot in the first 3 games

+1

This was his best game imo not b/c of the shutout but because of his calm feet.
Great positioning. Made it look effortless.

tcho

Could someone point me towards a fancy stats breakdown of the game please?

dangilitis

I was on talbot in the first 3 games because I thought he was poor to mediocre in all 3, save for the first period in game 2 but even then the first goal should not have gone in. Credit where credit is due, I definitely root for him like crazy. Perhaps getting the rust off early each season will be his M.O. Heck, Kipper used to do that every year and I don’t think calgarians minded too much.

But they won 2/3 when he was playing really poorly. He was a big part of the win in St. Louis but I am not so sure he stole us a win today. 0.919, what is that, 10-20th of all starters by years end?

I’m seeing lots of parallels between Calgary’s disdain for their highly touted goalies and our hate for Dubnyk. My friend in Calgary thought Elliot was shit in game 2. Let in 2 goals on breakaways and 1 tap in, meanwhile each goal scored on Talbot that night was suspect but the story was how Talbot “held down the fort” and how Elliot let the gates open, rather than how the oilers were gifted 6+ breakaways…

Okay, now I’m rambling but my points are that talbot has given Edmonton what most of the 16 playoff teams would expect from their goalie in small sample size but extra props for him for doling this while worrying about wife and twins on the way. I also don’t think Cam can blame his teammates for holding him back from a higher .SPG so far, which is a big deal in early days for us, regardless of opponent. Meanwhile, St. Louis’ experience with Elliot compared to that in cowtown suggests that he has reason to be annoyed with his teammates, but the media has picked a narrative and hopefully it takes the flames a few draft picks to figure out their problem

Ryan

“Connor McDavid is a tipping point for any team. You put him on the ice and you’re a completely better team for his presence.” -Paul Maurice

flyfish1168

Larssons play is really growing on me. His cross checks, elbowing and his gritty play is borderline but not enough to be called. Love it.

Dee Dee

Fog of Warts: FOG OF WARTS says:
October 23, 2016 at 7:04 pm
It’s a funny thing. We’re first to 10 points in the NHL, yet on the most recent power ranks, still get scroll wheel burn diving down to Ye Olde Faithful.
Today’s forecast, high in the twenties, with a chance of 30th.
Global warming is a myth.

Hard to shake 10 years of bottom feeding in 6 games unfortunately.

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour

jm363561:
Talbot bails them out again,

Kris Russell is playing way above his career average. It is not sustainable.

The penalty killing is not sustainable.

That Lucic contract is going to kill the club in six years time.

We only shaded the Corsi – the winning won’t last..

Seriously, just a really solid game. I am not a Nurse fan but maybe, just maybe.

P.S.

These referees are the dumbest people alive. Seriously. Fuck off — Posters using questionable language should be banned!

You forgot to point out that McDavid’s next contract is going to destroy any chance of building a dynasty and global warming will cause Rogers Place to melt.

But yeah otherwise, what a miserable and embarrassing start to the season.

I was much a happier last year when their record was 1 and 5. Back then we we really had things going our way!

jp

Water Fire: And then click ‘league’ and then ‘diff’.

And then, don’t forget to scroll down.

Water Fire

Pescador:
Lowetide,

You know what else is enjoyable to read?
https://www.nhl.com/standings

And then click ‘league’ and then ‘diff’.

This is where the playoff rubber meets the glory road.

Pescador

Lowetide,

You know what else is enjoyable to read?
https://www.nhl.com/standings

DevilsLettuce

Gonna step out here on a whim

Near all with complaints have previously watched as much hockey performed by one Kris Russell as they did Matt Hendricks before his arrival.

Before they dawned the beautiful Colours, they were both universally regarded as bums. overpaid bums.

Russell isn’t playing above his head, Sekera is a damn great partner for him, They’re fucking twins out there. One needs coverage, they cover. One needs an outlet pass, they position!

Kris Russell is a damn good defenceman back there, more please.