CATCH THE WIND

At some point, in the distance, we will learn to trust this. I expect it comes after the 20-game mark, maybe Christmas, or perhaps there is enough wobble to keep us anxious all year long. It is possible. I have asked the smartest hockey math people I know about this, and they all say wait 20 games. So we will. I am smiling this morning though, an older smile than 2006, a more subdued and battle hardened smile. We sure have been to hell and back, you and me, and we are just going to have to settle into this thing at our own pace. Watch out for that last step, it’s a doozy. And do not be surprised if we see a misstep in the coming days, as the roster is young and not yet balanced.

YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 3-4-0, goal differential -2
  • Oilers in October 2016: 6-1-0, goal differential +10

At this point, we have to assume this team is going to post a fantastic October record (worst case scenario now is 6-3-0 and that isn’t bad), and should enter November in a very good spot. I do not recall anyone in my circle of influence (five guys and a girl wearing tinfoil hats) who suggested anything close to this result. I think we should try to enjoy this, God knows it has been a long time coming. If you have experienced the wonder of Sebastian Bisaillon, the MacT power play, is it me? or any of 1,000 other extreme moments, then you should enjoy the day. Whatever happens after this, well, this was something.

  • Corsi For 5×5: 45-45 (50 percent)
  • HD SC: 9-7 (56.25)
  • Source

DEFENSE LAST NIGHT

defense-last-night

  • Klefbom—Larsson are solid as a rock, great at puck movement and intelligent in all areas. The pairing was 8-1 in 3:57 with McDavid and 7-8 in 6:01 with the Nuge. They were 9-8 against Ovechkin, 12-6 against Niskanen. Klefbom had an assist, and it was good.
  • Sekera—Russell were 8-5 in 6:37 with the McDavid line, 2-6 in 4:30 with Nuge. They went 4-7 against Oshie (Ovie line) and 3-6 against Backstrom—that is a tough 1-2 punch in terms of lines. Major PK minutes for these two as well. Sekera is fab, I am hearing less negative chatter about his getting the shot through on the power play these days.
  • Nurse—Gryba went 8-6 with Leon’s line (6:19) and were beaten soundly with the Letestu line (1-7 in 4:22). Gryba played exactly one whole helluva lot at evens. I am liking Nurse’s game more and more now, the game is slowing down for him. He re-set the sortie a couple of times last night (one of which went awry anyway) and for me that is a terrific sign.
  • Cam Talbot now possesses a .927 save percentage. Wow.
  • Source
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FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

forwards-last-night

  • Connor McDavid (mostly with Lucic and Eberle, but spent some dominant moments with Maroon and Puljujarvi) was on most often with the Sekera-Russell pairing, most effective with Klefbom. This line now has 10 goals in seven games and we are looking at an impressive trio. Eleven shots, and as mentioned they were not together for the entire night. The Maroon goal came when 97 and Puljujarvi combined on a speedy and dangerous sortie—perhaps a preview of coming events.
  • The gap between McDavid (74 percent Corsi for 5×5 percentage) and the rest of the roster (40 percent) is the challenge for Todd McLellan and Peter Chiarelli. It’s the reason why the answer to ‘are you still worried about this team’s playoff chances?’ is yes.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (mostly with Benoit Pouliot and Zack Kassian, but also with Mark Letestu at times) finally posted some crooked numbers (2A for Nuge, and two goals for Pouliot). RNH was 63 percent on the dot (does he have a dominant side? Perhaps that was the reason for Letestu being on the line at times) and I thought he played well. Zack Kassian was a day late and a dollar shot all night to my eye, but it is important to treat each game as an event and not a trend—Kassian was the scorer on this line for the Winnipeg game.
  • Leon Draisaitl (mostly with Patrick Maroon and Jesse Puljujarvi) and faced the likes of Lars Eller and Justin Williams (8-9 Corsi for 5×5 against Williams). Leon’s wingers each got a point, but McDavid was the center on the play—97 is going to do this more and more as he gets double shifted consistently. LD was 50 percent on the dot, played well to my eye.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi is a special prospect, but not just in the way we thought he might be coming in. Based on scouting reports and viewing, JP looked like a big, fast and dynamic winger who could shoot the puck, pass it, and contribute in multiple ways offensively. Now that we have seen him (5gp, 1-1-2) for a few games, I am shocked to see how ‘old soul’ his game is at such a young age. We are possibly looking at a complete skill set, a real difference maker at both ends of the ice. Now, he makes an errant pass in dangerous areas too often, but it is important to remember he doesn’t turn 20 until May of 2018. He and Nuge thwarted Ovechkin on separate sorties last night, I bet we include those two names for years to come when it comes to dousing forward progress for the opposition.
  • Mark Letestu (mostly with Lander and Pitlick) went 2-8 together, had three own-zone faceoffs and two of the three played a lot on the PK—this is looking like a useful 4line. Lander has found a spot, far from the vision of him Todd Nelson had, and looks good in that role. Nice to see, hope he can hang onto it.
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EVEN-STRENGTH SAVE PERCENTAGE (5GP OR MORE)

  1. Corey Crawford, Chicago .973
  2. Petr Mrazek, Detroit .950
  3. Braden Holtby, Washington .938
  4. Cory Schneider, New Jersey .937
  5. Cam Talbot, Edmonton .929
  6. Source

Along with Connor McDavid, the performance of Cam Talbot has been a big damned deal in the first month of the season. This is a massive deal, as Edmonton sends a young team out there in some important areas. If Talbot can keep this up, Edmonton might be home and dry with a playoff spot. Is that sustainable?

Massive deal for the Ducks, that is a beautiful contract. Anaheim placed Simon Despres on LTIR recently, that does give them relief but not enough if my ciphering jives. Is this the day Cam Fowler is traded? Would the Oilers move Benoit Pouliot to get him? How does that help the Ducks? If you are the Oilers, Sami Vatanen would be a terrific target, but one doubts he is the one to leave. I think we will see a trade, but can’t see the deal involving Edmonton.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Alex Thomas, The Oilers Rig. Edmonton is now on the verge of a ridiculous month, can they finish it off?
  • Jeff Mrak, Concordia University of Edmonton. The 2016-17 ACAC Women’s Soccer Championship starts tomorrow, we will tee it up and discuss the event.
  • Don Landry, CFL.ca. The Eskimos are likely to cross over, and on the face of it that looks like a terrific break. How does Edmonton perform against Hamilton and Ottawa?
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Oh, those Oilers! Plus the Anaheim trade and when it will drop.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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127 Responses to "CATCH THE WIND"

  1. Sherp007 says:

    First! What a game! Great start to the season! Whocouldaknown?

  2. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    LT,

    I don’t get the sense that NHL GMs, Anaheim included, think about Cam Fowler the way we do. I think they believe he is at or above Lindholm on the depth chart.

    Doesn’t hurt that he’s killing it to start the season. 3g 4a in 8gms.

    I don’t see him being the piece they move to clear up space.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    LT,

    I don’t get the sense that NHL GMs, Anaheim included, think about Cam Fowler the way we do.I think they believe he is at or above Lindholm on the depth chart.

    Doesn’t hurt that he’s killing it to start the season.3g 4a in 8gms.

    I don’t see him being the piece they move to clear up space.

    I would love to see Vatanen here, no idea what the trade would look like.

  4. GB&Q says:

    Nurse has looked much much calmer at times this year. There was one sequence (i think in the second?) where the Caps were creating a spot of bother behind the net, and Darnell won the puck battle, considered his options, and reversed the puck around the boards and out of trouble.

    great to see Lander out in late game faceoff situations, d-zone draws, giving pre-draw direction to his teammates. A good example of the leadership qualities he was always lauded for. Glad to see him find a role

    Puljujarvi’s near-goal was pretty damn tantalizing. Slowly but surely he seems to be finding his way offensively. Both he and Drai turned a few pucks over on the forecheck.

    Also, McDavid good.

  5. JJS says:

    After watching JP play, I wonder if our fear of rookies cracking the lineup is a vestige of different coaching styles and poor dressing room leadership.

    JP seems to ‘get it’. As did Dr Drais. McDavid doesn’t count given he belongs to another dimension.

    Hall didn’t get it. Yak didn’t. Gagner didn’t. Eberle didn’t.

    Feels like a different culture is sweeping through Roger’s Place.

  6. khildahl says:

    Puljujarvi’s play on Ovechkin can’t be praised too much. He took away what looked to be a totally uncontested shot, in close, from arguably the best shooter in hockey. Game-changing moment, right there.

    He bought himself a big pile of coach points last night. Don’t expect to see him go down to the AHL any time soon.

  7. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    I noticed a number of times on the pp last night, McDavid passing from the bottom corner to Drai on the halfwall and then the two switching spots (perhaps looking for a give-and-go). Whatever it was, WSH wasn’t buying it…no clear opportunities created despite what looked like execution of a drawn up play.

    Something to keep an eye on next game.

  8. GCW_69 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    LT,

    I don’t get the sense that NHL GMs, Anaheim included, think about Cam Fowler the way we do.I think they believe he is at or above Lindholm on the depth chart.

    Doesn’t hurt that he’s killing it to start the season.3g 4a in 8gms.

    I don’t see him being the piece they move to clear up space.

    If I was Murray I would be offering Bieksa whatever plumb after hockey job he wants to waive his trade restrictions and find a way to ship him out of town.

  9. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    I’ve been very happy with the way Lander has been playing.

    He can be a cheap fourth liner on my team anytime. And who knows, maybe a bit of his AHL scoring will catch up with him down the road.

    If he keeps accepting $1m contracts I say we keep giving them to him.

  10. Little Poteet says:

    Hey everyone. Just thought I’d mention, it’s getting to be a good time to hit the PayPal button for our gracious host. He’s having to learn a new skill after all, writing post game blogs after wins!
    In all seriousness, LT and by proxy Mrs LT deserve our gratitude for the hours dedicated to this team and this space

  11. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    GCW_69,

    x1000

    I’d offer Kessler worse things. Illegal things. Things you don’t tell your family about and that make you wake up crying in the middle of the night.

  12. Evilas says:

    Last night showed a glimpse of what JP on McD’s wing could look like. As I’ve threatened before to post this on every post, I’d like to see:

    Maroon-McD-JP
    Pou-RNH-Ebs
    Looch-Drai-Sleppy
    Lander/Caguila-Letestu-Pit/Kass

    I would like to see a Trouba – like add, but if this team keeps rolling we likely won’t see anything until the trade deadline when Wideman or another expiring contract is brought in.

    Who is this team anyway? I’m loving it!

  13. Stelio Kontos says:

    30 games minimum to set up a t-distribution that will semi accurately predict a range where the mean shooting percentage and shooting percentage of opponent is. That’s only raw corsi on a team wide basis. I wouldn’t touch player corsi even over one season. A lot of the stuff flying around seems to be on a hunch, not solid maths. If you are trying to make intelligent observations on less than 1000 shot sample size, you are setting yourself up to fail, even if you use a t-distribution. 20 seems like an asspull.

  14. Pouzar says:

    You know who doesn’t get enough credit for Hockey IQ?
    Pat Maroon. Been seeing so many sweet defensive zone passes and his offensive positioning has been spot on.

    McDavid kid has a future as well.

    Love the write up on JP LT. Can’t miss prospect imo.

  15. jesse r says:

    I think it was Al Green who said you should stay together, whether times are good or bad, or Sebastian Bisaillon.

    If Todd Marchant hadn’t permanently broken something in my brain a decade ago, I probably wouldn’t have lasted, but mornings like this make me glad we’ve stayed together, Oilers. Please don’t hurt me again.

  16. Dominoiler says:

    Minor correction, Lander’s corsi percentage needs a little tweak..

    I took a look at one of LT’s links, saw this shot chart.. 2nd chart down..

    http://hockeystats.ca/game/2016020096

    and noticed a pretty significant difference between the two teams wrt HD box protection.. One game sample, may go back to check out previous games, but it looks good from this snapshot..

    I counted 7 corsi events against (and 15 for the oil) below and between the hash marks

    Anyways, something i’ll be looking at further..

    wow, 6-1

  17. Thorin says:

    Stelio Kontos:
    30 games minimum to set up a t-distribution that will semi accurately predicta range where the mean shooting percentage and shooting percentage of opponent is. That’s only raw corsi on a team wide basis. I wouldn’t touch player corsi even over one season. A lot of the stuff flying around seems to be on a hunch, not solid maths. If you are trying to make intelligent observations on less than 1000 shot sample size, you are setting yourself up to fail, even if you use a t-distribution.20 seems like an asspull.

    Quoting this for the word “asspull”. That’s a delightful new term I’ll be using when people are talking nonsense!

  18. slopitch says:

    Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons:
    I noticed a number of times on the pp last night, McDavid passing from the bottom corner to Drai on the halfwall and then the two switching spots (perhaps looking for a give-and-go). Whatever it was, WSH wasn’t buying it…no clear opportunities created despite what looked like execution of a drawn up play.

    Something to keep an eye on next game.

    Im totally fine with the 2 guys Id like playing catch for a while waiting for something to open up. At times it wont work like you said, but they are both kids and skilled ones at that. With the level of video analysis and coaching, the tricks they try will have to change over time, but I see it as a great way to open up lanes.

    Agreed. Nice writeup on JP. He’s Nuge’s missing RW. Just not this year.

    I don’t think the Oilers can afford to move Pouliot given they could use another winger. Id have all day for Vatanen though. Great contract by Anaheim to lock down Lindholm at that number.

  19. Bag of Pucks says:

    6-1. Heady days.

    The only negative I can see is the ammunition this gives all the Hall haters. Out and about last night and the gossip and slams on Hall were completely over the top. The common thread being that the team’s current record proves Hall was a ‘primadonna, cancer, selfish a-hole, puckhog, fancy dan, etc.’

    Hall has 5 Gs (one off the goal scoring lead) playing for one of the most offensively challenged teams in the league.

    Yeah, he was definitely the problem.

  20. Bag of Pucks says:

    Pouzar:
    You know who doesn’t get enough credit for Hockey IQ?
    Pat Maroon. Been seeing so many sweet defensive zone passes and his offensive positioning has been spot on.

    Why the hell did Anaheim let him go? Clear win for Chia.

  21. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Pouzar,

    Yes yes and yes!

    A big highlight for me last night was actually a series of plays. In the 2nd CmD passed up a shot in the slot on the rush to pass back to Eberle. It was a tough play for Eberle considering a dman was sliding towards him and the speed carried him to a brutal angle off the right post. Remenda and Quinn were pretty vocal about the shot pass up and for once I agreed with them.

    Come the 3rd period I believe CmD had 4 shot attempts (non-PP) with one of them connecting with Holtby’s head and another just high and wide on the short side. The in game tweaks by CmD is the mark of a true stone cold killer, (I get chills when the camera pans to him after a chance or on the bench after a chance those eyes are heartless I tells ya!).

    I’ve witnessed a lot of both Lucic and Eberle driving hard to the net if they aren’t the first pass option on a rush with CmD, so much so that last night both of them seemed a tad out of place if the rush option didn’t lead to a shot, but they are in position and ready and are able to scramble quickly enough to recover on the forecheck (This may seem like Hockey 101 stuff but its these simple little plays that have been absent for so long so when I see them I pinch myself in joy).

    If CmD can balance out his pass/shooting attack the lines he is on will put up 100 goals (slightly exaggerating but not by a lot), he’s too fast for Dmen to adjust to his game so they end up double teaming him leaving open other options (Lucic vs St Louis). If they stop trying to double team him, he’ll just beat his dman and will get a shot anyway. The level of uncertainty that a balanced attack will create will leave dmen DOA when he comes up the ice.

  22. Bag of Pucks says:

    Evilas:
    Last night showed a glimpse of what JP on McD’s wing could look like.As I’ve threatened before to post this on every post, I’d like to see:

    Maroon-McD-JP
    Pou-RNH-Ebs
    Looch-Drai-Sleppy
    Lander/Caguila-Letestu-Pit/Kass

    I would like to see a Trouba – like add, but if this team keeps rolling we likely won’t see anything until the trade deadline when Wideman or another expiring contract is brought in.

    Who is this team anyway?I’m loving it!

    I would like to see those line combos as well.

  23. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Bag of Pucks: Why the hell did Anaheim let him go? Clear win for Chia.

    They didn’t just let him go. They retained salary. Crazy.

    The day he took the puck after the Anaheim game because he knew they wanted it was the day I became a fan of his.

  24. khildahl says:

    Bag of Pucks: Why the hell did Anaheim let him go? Clear win for Chia.

    With retained salary, no less.

  25. Clay says:

    Is Hossa a good comp for Puljujarvi?

  26. RPG says:

    I’d really love to hear from @mc79hockey right about now. It would be interesting to know what he thinks of the early Oilers success?

  27. npanciroli says:

    Clay,

    I’ve heard this comparison before. Seems like a fit.

  28. Rondo says:

    Good game by the Oilers, they are winning games they wouldn’t have in the last decade.

    That said Wash did not bring their A game last night.

  29. npanciroli says:

    Rondo,

    Almost felt to me like they tried to but kept getting stifled and frustrated by the Oiler’s defence. Keep everything on the outside make them pay for their chances.

  30. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    npanciroli:
    Clay,

    I’ve heard this comparison before. Seems like a fit.

    Hossa is a borderline hall of famer… so that would be pretty good. Vorachek is another comp that has been floated around.

    I also find it funny that the tendency is always to compare non North American players to other non North American players, and vice versa.

    Draisaitl is just like Kopitar….. as opposed to Eric Staal (or any other large Cdn/US center).

  31. N64 says:

    I’m confused. Suddenly my guess of 93 doesn’t look so ridiculous.

    The DEATH MARCH contest is all scrambled. Right now it’s looking like the HERD AT MACH contest.

    Note: maybe next year I’ll pick a non-Yak nickname, but I’m switching to N64 for the rest of this year.

    Магия 10 aka НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴

  32. npanciroli says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Haha, didn’t even notice it – must be subconscious.

  33. bendelson says:

    npanciroli:
    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Haha, didn’t even notice it – must be subconscious.

    Ah yes, the ‘unknown knowns’, to riff off of the JDi and Stevezie posts from yesterday…

  34. dustrock says:

    Clay:
    Is Hossa a good comp for Puljujarvi?

    Yes, came in here to mention this. Players comps are all essentially silly, but this is a pretty good one.

    Few thoughts:

    (1) Man, did Pou score that 1st goal at a good time, because man I thought the Nuge line was getting killed.

    (2) Gryba was playing too much. He was working hard, he just doesn’t have the skill set and transition game, and most of the ugliest moments came against him. Why so much 5v5 time? His size I guess.

    (3) Kassian with a bad game offensively and just “controller unplugged” on Ovechkin’s goal 9 seconds into the 3rd. I don’t blame Larsson for losing a battle to one of the strongest guys in the league when Ovi could just sail in calmly.

    (4) LT – I know you’re a soccer fan – really think McLellan has the Oilers playing the old Italian catenaccio style – keep everything to the outside, collapse on D, and then counterattack furiously. It only works if you are able to Capitalize on the counter, but having McDavid, who is essentially Lionel Messi, on the counter makes it possible. We’d all love to know what the Oilers’ own stats are looking at, but adding a guy like Larsson, you can see how he fits their defensive system perfectly.

    (5) It’s so good to get confidence in October.

    Here’s November:

    @TOR
    @NYR
    @NYI
    @DET
    @PIT
    home DAL
    home NYR
    @ANA
    @LAK
    @DAL
    home CHI
    @COL
    @ARI
    home ARI
    home TOR

    Blarg.

  35. McNuge93 says:

    JJS:
    After watching JP play, I wonder if our fear of rookies cracking the lineup is a vestige of different coaching styles and poor dressing room leadership.

    JP seems to ‘get it’.As did Dr Drais.McDavid doesn’t count given he belongs to another dimension.

    And I think they now have depth where they can protect him more. They sat him out a couple of games which helps bringing him along solidly rather than throwing him into the fire.

    Hall didn’t get it.Yak didn’t.Gagner didn’t.Eberle didn’t.

    Feels like a different culture is sweeping through Roger’s Place.

  36. Clay says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: Hossa is a borderline hall of famer… so that would be pretty good.Vorachek is another comp that has been floated around.

    I also find it funny that the tendency is always to compare non North American players to other non North American players, and vice versa.

    Draisaitl is just like Kopitar…..as opposed to Eric Staal (or any other large Cdn/US center).

    As far as the nationality base for comparison (and of course “nationality” is loosely used for Euros in this case), I think that’s natural when talking about comparables. The idea is to find an established player who took a similar route to the NHL, in order to roughly project what the new player may or may not do. So in this case, Hossa started out in the Slovak Extraliga before he was drafted, Pullyou in the Finnish league.

    You’re right though, it’s a curious bias at times.

  37. SwedishPoster says:

    Haha, I write a long post pre-game about why I think Pulju doesn’t look NHL ready and why we should bring him alnog slowly and he shows me up with his best, by far best, game as an NHLer. Well I ain’t complaining, now keep doing it for another 75 games plus playoffs…
    He did look more comfortable and we might see him learn on the job, for me it’s important to see that he keeps showing up offensively so we don’t turn him into a middle sixer by killing his offensive mojo. He still looks a bit uncomfortable with the puck, makes the simplest possible play almost all the time and sometimes throws it away in panic, which is not something he’s done in my previous viewings, playmaking and vision has been a strength. I don’t think I’ve seen him go full throttle with the puck once in his short NHL career, also a usual strength. Last night did show enough positives for there to be reason to believe he’s feeling his way into the league and the things mentioned above will come to him with more experience and confidence. Last night could be huge in that regard. Last night could also be an outlier, will be interesting to follow. As I wrote yesterday, if he keeps pushing for a top six role it makes sense to keep him around, if he’s just a warm body who won’t make a fool out of himself defensively, send him down.

    He does play a very responsible game defensively and that shows one of the strength with the age and experience hierarchy in the euro pro leagues that youngsters have to battle. They’re forced to learn the defensive side of the game to earn ice time, I don’t remember which NHL coach, Bill Peters?, who said earlier this fall that his swedish and finnish players were surprisingly strong defensively from day one despite their young age. I’d say it has a lot to do with the battling for ice time they have to do when coming up from juniors to their respective men’s team.
    It’s something to keep in mind when bringing kids over, if they reach their men’s team at an early age they could have had several seasons where they have been somewhat reigned in offensively so if you’re looking for a player to provide offense at the NHL level it might be smart to let them develop that offense either at home or in the AHL. I think this was a mistake the Oilers did with Lander and Pääjärvi, they were about to break out offensively in the SHL, both were looking at forst line and PP time the following season. Instead the Oilers brought them over and stuck them in bottom six roles, then the AHL, then the bottom six in the NHL. Brilliant. I don’t think either had a massive upside offensively and said so much at the time, Puljujärvi is at a completely different level skillwise, but I think both could have added more offense, and be pretty much surefire NHL regulars, with a different approach. Oh well, bygones.

    On Lander btw, his defensive work, PK and faceoffs were excellent last night, still can’t piss a drop offensively, his confidence with the puck on his stick is flat out dead, but man his faceoffs last night were prime Sammy Påhlsson, he won around 60%, a lot of them cleanly and the ones he lost were never clean losses and I think the team regained the puck on severalof them. Looks the part of a cheap fourth line role player/extra forward right now. But man he needs some bounces offensively to gain enough confidence to not kill every offensive play like he did last night, hopefully he can build off his defensive game and slowly regain some of his playmaking and strength on the puck that he showed under Nelson. He should have enough offensively to be a solid fourth liner imo.

    The ice in Rogers place looks like it’s awful every player, except McDavid* who is otherworldly, seems to struggle and have to settle the puck down a lot of the time before being able to handle it, especially at high speeds.

    *(McDavid is like the old brazilian footballers who had grown up playing on beaches and crappy fields which forced them to handle the ball really closely and could go full speed with the ball under full control without ever looking down)

  38. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    slopitch: Im totally fine with the 2 guys Id like playing catch for a while waiting for something to open up. At times it wont work like you said, but they are both kids and skilled ones at that. With the level of video analysis and coaching, the tricks they try will have to change over time, but I see it as a great way to open up lanes.

    Yes, with skill like that even if half a lane opens they should be able to do something with it. That is the first play on the PP I’ve seen executed repeatedly this year (other than the tried and true open up a lane for a point shot). Will be interesting to see if they try it again or modify next game.

    Also, how great would it be if McDavid starts setting up shop behind the net? or is that just too easy to defend now?

  39. zatch says:

    dustrock,

    @TOR W
    @NYR L
    @NYI W
    @DET L
    @PIT L
    home DAL W
    home NYR W
    @ANA W
    @LAK L
    @DAL W
    home CHI W
    @COL W
    @ARI W
    home ARI W
    home TOR W

    That is HIGHLY optimistic, but Dallas is so injury depleted right now it’s sad, Anaheim does not impress me, Both NY’s are beatable, Chicago is shallow, Colorado, Arizona and Toronto are all bad.

    11-4 is not impossible, although on the far edge of likely. I’ll say 9-4-2 .

  40. Melman says:

    OT – but Crawford @.978. Are you kidding me!

  41. SwedishPoster says:

    dustrock:

    (4) LT – I know you’re a soccer fan – really think McLellan has the Oilers playing the old Italian catenaccio style – keep everything to the outside, collapse on D, and then counterattack furiously.It only works if you are able to Capitalize on the counter, but having McDavid, who is essentially Lionel Messi, on the counter makes it possible.We’d all love to know what the Oilers’ own stats are looking at, but adding a guy like Larsson, you can see how he fits their defensive system perfectly.

    It will be interesting to see how the team reacts if/when other teams starts to adapt and starts backing up, clog the neutral zone and let the Oil own the puck. Will be another test to see if this team is for real or just an early flash in the pan before the big dogs have got their A game on.

  42. Pouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks: Why the hell did Anaheim let him go? Clear win for Chia.

    Not sure. I always remember that series against WPG in the playoffs. He was a beast!

  43. Pouzar says:

    MPS on waivers.

  44. Aron_S says:

    OT- (kind of) as well, but I have to imagine the Ducks trade Bernier to the Kings or something of that ilk.

    Retain 50% salary is enough to get Lindholm on the books for ANA, and if the Kings throw Quick on LTIR, it gives them enough space with the ~980k they have left to slide Bernier on at half price.

    Friedman has hinted Ranford would love to get Bernier back in LA, but it might be a division rival problem. When two clubs are hurting though, I can’t imagine you let your mutual misery get in the way of success.

  45. SwedishPoster says:

    Pouzar,

    Hasn’t there been mumblings about him showing up out of shape, maybe that broke something in the relationship with management. Also he did have a pretty crappy season with the Ducks last year.

  46. Aron_S says:

    Pouzar,

    Poor MPS. Deserves better. A player waiting for an expansion team?

  47. npanciroli says:

    Gryba is better than McIlrath right?

  48. fifthcartel says:

    Silfverberg would be an amazing add on RW.

  49. Pouzar says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Pouzar,

    Hasn’t there been mumblings about him showing up out of shape, maybe that broke something in the relationship with management. Also he did have a pretty crappy season with the Ducks last year.

    I’ve heard the out of shape whispers but can’t say for certain what the deal was.

  50. who says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Haha, I write a long post pre-game about why I think Pulju doesn’t look NHL ready and why we should bring him alnog slowly and he shows me up with his best, by far best, game as an NHLer. Well I ain’t complaining, now keep doing it for another 75 games plus playoffs…
    He did look more comfortable and we might see him learn on the job, for me it’s important to see that he keeps showing up offensively so we don’t turn him into a middle sixer by killing his offensive mojo. He still looks a bit uncomfortable with the puck, makes the simplest possible play almost all the time and sometimes throws it away in panic, which is not something he’s done in my previous viewings, playmaking and vision has been a strength. I don’t think I’ve seen him go full throttle with the puck once in his short NHL career, also a usual strength. Last night did show enough positives for there to be reason to believe he’s feeling his way into the league and the things mentioned above will come to him with more experience and confidence. Last night could be huge in that regard. Last night could also be an outlier, will be interesting to follow. As I wrote yesterday, if he keeps pushing for a top six role it makes sense to keep him around, if he’s just a warm body who won’t make a fool out of himself defensively, send him down.

    He does play a very responsible game defensively and that shows one of the strength with the age and experience hierarchy in the euro pro leagues that youngsters have to battle. They’re forced to learn the defensive side of the game to earn ice time, I don’t remember which NHL coach, Bill Peters?, who said earlier this fall that his swedishand finnish players were surprisingly strong defensively from day one despite their young age. I’d say it has a lot to do with the battling for ice time they have to do when coming up from juniors to their respective men’s team.
    It’s something to keep in mind when bringing kids over, if they reach their men’s team at an early age they could have had several seasons where they have been somewhat reigned in offensively so if you’re looking for a player to provide offense at the NHL level it might be smart to let them develop that offense either at home or in the AHL. I think this was a mistake the Oilers did with Lander and Pääjärvi, they were about to break out offensively in the SHL, both were looking at forst line and PP time the following season. Instead the Oilers brought them over and stuck them in bottom six roles, then the AHL, then the bottom six in the NHL. Brilliant. I don’t think either had a massive upside offensively and said so much at the time, Puljujärvi is at a completely different level skillwise, but I think both could have added more offense, and be pretty much surefire NHL regulars, with a different approach. Oh well, bygones.

    On Lander btw, his defensive work, PK and faceoffs were excellent last night, still can’t piss a drop offensively, his confidence with the puck on his stick is flat out dead, but man his faceoffs last night were prime Sammy Påhlsson, he won around 60%, a lot of them cleanly and the ones he lost were never clean losses and I think the team regained the puck on severalof them. Looks the part of a cheap fourth line role player/extra forward right now. But man he needs some bounces offensively to gain enough confidence to not kill every offensive play like he did last night, hopefully he can build off his defensive game and slowly regain some of his playmaking and strength on the puck that he showed under Nelson. He should have enough offensively to be a solid fourth liner imo.

    The ice in Rogers place looks like it’s awful every player, except McDavid* who is otherworldly, seems to struggle and have to settle the puck down a lot of the time before being able to handle it, especially at high speeds.

    *(McDavid is like the old brazilian footballers who had grown up playing on beaches and crappy fields which forced them to handle the ball really closely and could go full speed with the ball under full control without ever looking down)

    I agree totally with your evaluation of JP. Yes he looks very responsible defensively but you don’t draft a winger 4th ov for his defensive game. That is just a bonus.
    He looks very tentative with the puck and we need him to develop as an offensive player. Maybe he can do that at the nhl level but I haven’t seen much evidence of it so far. Still early though and I think he will get there eventually.

  51. PaperKurtRussell says:

    Does anyone track breakaways or odd-man rushes against? To me, that is the most noticeable improvement year-over-year. Could be just a traumatic brain thingy from watching too many of those in the past 6 years… The team is putting Talbot in a position to succeed, and he is delivering big effin time!

    On a somewhat related note, I’m very impressed with Nurse. Can’t put my finger on it exactly, but it is rare that you notice him doing something poorly this year that leads to a chance against. For a young d-man, that is excellent news. As the year rolls along, it will be interesting to watch his progress if/when he has a different partner than Gryba.

  52. RumBurgundy says:

    I am really enjoying Eberle’s return to form. Even better in game 7 than game 1. Is this Lucic/McDavid influence or being 100% healthy or both? He is forechecking and winning board battles like he was in his first couple of years in the league. It certainly helps having Lucic to cycle with.

  53. Confused says:

    Is it time to accept that we are more of a rush team than a cycle team?

    If so, time to start working out how to measure rush-oriented approaches.

  54. Confused says:

    npanciroli,

    I think they would be interchangeable.

    Reasonable depth option if we are not saving cap space for Trouba.

  55. kinger_OIL says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    6-1. Heady days.

    The only negative I can see is the ammunition this gives all the Hall haters. Out and about last night and the gossip and slams on Hall were completely over the top. The common thread being that the team’s current record proves Hall was a ‘primadonna, cancer, selfish a-hole, puckhog, fancy dan, etc.’

    Hall has 5 Gs (one off the goal scoring lead) playing for one of the most offensively challenged teams in the league.

    Yeah, he was definitely the problem.

    – Let’s wait as LT says 20-30 games. Hall might not have been part of the problem, but if this keeps up it’s clear he was part of the solution….

  56. dustrock says:

    zatch:
    dustrock,

    @TOR W@NYR L@NYI W@DET L@PIT Lhome DAL Whome NYR W@ANA W@LAK L@DAL Whome CHI W@COL W@ARI Whome ARI Whome TOR W

    That is HIGHLY optimistic, but Dallas is so injury depleted right now it’s sad, Anaheim does not impress me, Both NY’s are beatable, Chicago is shallow, Colorado, Arizona and Toronto are all bad.

    11-4 is not impossible, although on the far edge of likely. I’ll say 9-4-2 .

    I’d say 9-4-2 is highly optimistic. That’s an elite team record for November.

    I would think if the Oilers can go 7-7-1 that would be a big step.

    Wouldn’t be shocked at something like 5-8-2 TBH.

  57. doritogrande says:

    Is Hossa a good comp for Puljujarvi?

    I’m just going to leave Andrew Ladd’s name here….

  58. stush18 says:

    SO I was reading online about the ducks.

    Apparently they have to be cap compliant by Friday, or they forfeit the game.

    I’m hearing a lot of fowler for mantha rumours, but really, what would he cost? Anaheim is stuck between a rock and hard place here.

    Vatanen for pitlick and a pick? They need to clear a bunch of money, and I can’t see anyone helping them like Arizona did for Detroit

  59. Younger Oil says:

    The most impressive part of yesterday’s game to me was the fact that three goals were directly related to crashing hard to the net without the puck.

    Those make up probably at least half of the goals in hockey, if not more, and has been sorely lacking from the Oilers in the past decade

    It really seems like the culture in the organization has changed. Now, whether it is even moderately sustainable is another thing, but those are good signs.

    Also, personally, if I had to choose one, I’d take a high scoring chance differential over a high corsi any day of the week. I know it’s more subjective, but if Eakins’ time here taught me anything, it’s that a high corsi means nothing if all of your shots are easily stopped shots from the perimeter.

  60. Spengler says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Great post! Love the detail you go into.

    It’s interesting you brought up face offs and winning them cleanly or losing hem but not cleanly. I was thinking about that last night, how simply counting face offs won and lost isn’t giving United the best picture of what happens there. That being said, I’m not sure how they are “scored” (does it count as as win if you gain possession for a touch, a completed pass, etc?) A faceoff loss isn’t as big of a deal if he there team can’t capitalise on it. There is a skill to losing but not losing cleanly. Much like giving up a shot but trying to ensure its from the outside (or a Jultz-like muffin from the point.)

    I’m interested, but not interested to do the work of tracking these things, though I do wonder if someone does.

  61. Bruce Wayne says:

    That is an unbelievable contract for the Ducks. I am surprised Lindholm sold himself so short. The peer pressure in these situations must be intense.

  62. Confused says:

    Spengler,

    Given what appears to be our style of play, face-offs are a huge issue for us.

    Not just winning but being productive after a win — too many won face-offs in our own end last night failing to result in clearing the zone.

  63. Bruce Wayne says:

    For those hanging their hats on HDSC, the Maple Leafs have a better HDSC % (record 1-2-3) and the Predators have basically the same (record 2-3) and the Canes are right there (record 1-3-2).

    So there are some lessons here:

    1) This team has played well, but they could have played exactly the same and have a losing record. If this had happened you can bet the perception concerning what was working and what wasn’t would be different. Lesson: never judge a team based on its record.

    2) This team has played well, but the best players by far are McDavid and Talbot, followed by Klefbom. The rest of the team has not played at near this level. Lesson: do not attribute success to factors that are contingent to that success. This is what happens when you turn success into a narrative. The narrative here that the success is attributable to offseason changes. Success in itself is not evidence of this. It is a classic example of question begging (i.e. if success is the variable that you are trying to explain you cannot use the success as part of the explanation).

  64. Confused says:

    Anyone think Korbinian Holzer might be in play from the Ducks as a small salary dump.

    And if so, would we be interested?

  65. TO10801 says:

    I hope I’m wrong but I can see Chia being all over McIlrath. With Fayne and Davidson on the IR for presumably a while (Gregor said months for Davidson) it wouldn’t hurt to have another RHD. It would allow Benning to go back to the AHL and Gryba/McIlrath could battle it out for playing time. Again not a fan of the move but I think it is probable.

  66. John Chambers says:

    fifthcartel:
    Silfverberg would be an amazing add on RW.

    Yakupov for Silfverberg would’ve been a sensible upgrade.

  67. Pajamah says:

    stush18:
    SO I was reading online about the ducks.

    Apparently they have to be cap compliant by Friday, or they forfeit the game.

    I’m hearing a lot of fowler for mantha rumours, but really, what would he cost? Anaheim is stuck between a rock and hard place here.

    Vatanen for pitlick and a pick? They need to clear a bunch of money, and I can’t see anyone helping them like Arizona did for Detroit

    Arizona helped Detroit so much as getting Jacob Chychrun. Likely the best D man in the draft. If the Oilers were still an internal cap team, I would hope that they would “help out other teams” as well.

  68. Spengler says:

    Confused,

    Absolutely! My comment as less about the Oilers specifically than about how faceoff stats are counted in general. Simple won/loss stats remind me of +/-. There’s information there but not enough to tell the whole story. There should be a difference between going 6/10 but losing the early and going 4/10 but preventing a clean win. At least superficially. I’d be interested to know if that’s true.

  69. LMHF#1 says:

    Sure hope Chiarelli is on the hunt.

    If they could turn that bottom pair into Davidson-Trouba/Vatanen or something…this hockey team would be in freaking business.

    What could Nurse + 1st get you? Besides a MacTavish crying fit.

  70. npanciroli says:

    McIlrath’s fancy stats look solid? Am I seeing this right?

  71. npanciroli says:

    LMHF#1,

    This is absolutely the play IMO with Nurse being expansion exempt (making him more valuable to other teams).

  72. LMHF#1 says:

    npanciroli:
    McIlrath’s fancy stats look solid? Am I seeing this right?

    Aim higher.

  73. LMHF#1 says:

    npanciroli:
    LMHF#1,

    This is absolutely the play IMO with Nurse being expansion exempt (making him more valuable to other teams).

    Bingo.

  74. npanciroli says:

    LMHF#1,

    😀

  75. npanciroli says:

    How much cap space could we realistically add with bonus issues.

    Would Nurse + a 1st for Trouba/Vatanen work with the money they make or are set to make?

  76. stush18 says:

    Pajamah: Arizona helped Detroit so much as getting Jacob Chychrun. Likely the best D man in the draft. If the Oilers were still an internal cap team, I would hope that they would “help out other teams” as well.

    Sure it was a smart move. He also overpaid. He did not need to swap first rounders.

    And I would love it if the oilers did this, but I can’t recall us ever having done rhat

  77. Confused says:

    LMHF#1,

    love to, but I think he needs a body. Aiming high and getting nothing would be a disaster.

    And do we realistically believe that they would move Nurse — all body language says no.

    So it needs to be Davidson + 1st (or Reinhart) — but he is injured. Can we wait?

  78. LMHF#1 says:

    Confused:
    LMHF#1,

    love to, but I think he needs a body. Aiming high and getting nothing would be a disaster.

    And do we realistically believe that they would move Nurse — all body language says no.

    So it needs to be Davidson + 1st (or Reinhart) — but he is injured. Can we wait?

    I think if the right deal comes up they move Nurse – Chiarelli seems to overrule the old standbys eventually.

  79. Pouzar says:

    Trouba is gonna fold like a cheap suitcase and sign with Jets.

    And Thank f^ck.

  80. CrazyCoach says:

    Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons: I noticed a number of times on the pp last night, McDavid passing from the bottom corner to Drai on the halfwall and then the two switching spots (perhaps looking for a give-and-go). Whatever it was, WSH wasn’t buying it…no clear opportunities created despite what looked like execution of a drawn up play.
    Something to keep an eye on next game.

    Yeah, they need someone to create a seam by driving off the half wall to the high slot and creating an outnumber situation and creating time and space, or a quick ring around to other half boards and set up there. The Sedins made a living on the PP by starting a cycle from behind the net.

    Anything to cause chaos with the PK.

  81. Little Poteet says:

    zatch,

    15 games in 30 days, 10 of which are on the road is a tough sched. coming out at 8-7 would be fantastic for this club

  82. Chris says:

    I’ve never floated a trade proposal on here before, mostly because I’ve seen the general reaction from the knowledgeable people here, but here goes nothing.

    Would the Ducks entertain a Paigin, Oesterle and a first for Fowler?
    Would Edmonton?

  83. bendelson says:

    fifthcartel,

    John Chambers,

    Silfverberg has been on my wish list for some time now. The ‘type’ of player the Oilers could really use.
    That said, AHM has very little depth on the wings. I don’t see them moving him this season.

    FYI: Another player on that same list? Matt Read. Hot start but likely to be made available at the deadline (assuming the Flyers are out of the playoff mix).

  84. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Having these points in the bank already is going to be huge down the stretch.

    I didn’t really know how to feel last night – I’m still too scared to get really happy about a win like that. How messed up is that? I guess the last 10 years will do that to you.

  85. rickithebear says:

    14-15 to 16-17:
    Silverberg
    6.67 SH% @ Even
    FO% N/A
    PKGA 4.89

  86. khildahl says:

    Bohologo,

    Only if Hemsky is one of the injuries.

  87. fifthcartel says:

    bendelson,

    I think there might be a possibility based on their expansion draft list.

    Going 7/3/1 protects him assuredly, with the likely buyout of Bieksa, the 3 defense spots probably go to Lindholm, Vatanen, and Manson, but that means they move Fowler or else one of Manson or Fowler gets left unprotected.

    Silfverberg is signed 1 year longer than Fowler, but I wonder if they’d rather lose a winger than defensemen? Silfverberg is only signed to 3.75m too.

    Then they could go 8 skaters and protect Getlaf, Perrry, Kesler, Rakell, Lindholm, Vatanen, Fowler, Manson.

  88. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Oilers are sitting at the top of the waiver priority list now correct? I’d say Chia claims Mcilrath for sure, waives Fayne when he iis off IR.

  89. rickithebear says:

    Réal Goudenyéu:
    Having these points in the bank already is going to be huge down the stretch.

    I didn’t really know how to feel last night – I’m still too scared to get really happy about a win like that. How messed up is that? I guess the last 10 years will do that to you.

    I do a daily:
    95 points for West Conf Wild card
    On average 9-10 OT/SOL

    82gm; 95PT
    -7gm; -12 PT 0; zero OT
    ——————
    75gm; 83pt
    -9gm; -9P
    —————–
    66gm; 74pt; need 37 wins – 29 losses
    37- 29 – 9 need +8 games

    Calgary
    82gm; 95P
    -8gm; -7P
    ————-
    74gm; 88P
    10gm; 10P
    —————-
    64gm; 78P need 39 wins – 25 Losses
    39-25-10 need +14 games

  90. JustWatt says:

    I’m a little bit surprised that no one has said anything about the third period specifically.

    I might be wrong but I think they were being out-Corsid going into the third (they were definitely being outshot) and yet they came out of the game even. That “go for the jugular when they are down” push in a game they are leading in the third has been missing IMO.

    To say nothing of the brilliance of McLellan to double shift McD with PJ and Big Rig right after Ovie’s tally resulting in that fantastic “oh no you don’t!” push-back goal.

    At 3-1 I wondered if we were going to actually win the game, followed swiftly by thoughts of not counting unhatched chickens. At 4-1 I texted my dad and said “holy crap we are going to beat the Caps!”

    During the broadcast they flashed a graphic that said that Washington only lost 1 game in regulation to a Canadian team all of last season. I think they were 14-1-2. This was a mighty fine win. The high point of the season so far, without question.

  91. who says:

    npanciroli:
    How much cap space could we realistically add with bonus issues.

    Would Nurse + a 1st for Trouba/Vatanen work with the money they make or are set to make?

    Do you think nurse and a first for vat an en is fair value. That looks like a horrible trade for edmonton.

  92. TO10801 says:

    DRFNsuperstar,

    Fayne seemed really suspicious. Could Chia have started our own version of Robidas Island? Just seems odd that he got hurt in 2 min of ice time and then there has been crickets since. Agree on McIlrath tho. I think Chia already has his claim in

  93. npanciroli says:

    who,

    It could be whatever, more curious about the cap implications.

  94. bendelson says:

    fifthcartel,

    You could be right – it’s challenging to speculate about the upcoming expansion draft.
    How many rules will be adjusted or permitted to be bent to accommodate teams in tough situations?
    Which GM’s will exploit the situation? Which GM’s will be exploited?
    We wait.
    One thing that doesn’t concern me in the least is whether players like Maroon, Kassian or
    Letestu are left unprotected. As ridiculous as it sounds, someone on the radio (likely Gregor) was all worked up about it yesterday…

  95. Todd Macallan says:

    Taking a step back to an earlier point, I mentioned the Puju – Hossa comp on draft day, and have yet to find a better (optimistic) one. Also totally agree, as always, with Swedishposter’s assessment of his game currently.

    In other news, and apologies if this was discussed already, but according to the Oilers twitter, Dylan Wells has been named to team CAN for the OHL vs Russia series game. Good arrow indeed!

  96. stush18 says:

    Todd Macallan:
    Taking a step back to an earlier point, I mentioned the Puju – Hossa comp on draft day, and have yet to find a better (optimistic) one. Also totally agree, as always, with Swedishposter’s assessment of his game currently.

    In other news, and apologies if this was discussed already, but according to the Oilers twitter, Dylan Wells has been named to team CAN for the OHL vs Russia series game. Good arrow indeed!

    Svboda has been playing very well too. A lot of pushback from posters on here about both wells and him.

    Like *someone* always says, goalies are voodoo!

  97. vinotintazo says:

    Todd Macallan,

    Blake wheeler?

  98. Todd Macallan says:

    vinotintazo:
    Todd Macallan,

    Blake wheeler?

    Not a bad comp at all, but tend to lean towards Hossa for his 200 ft game, which JP appears to possess in spades compared to most rookies.

  99. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Todd Macallan: Not a bad comp at all, but tend to lean towards Hossa for his 200 ft game, which JP appears to possess in spades compared to most rookies.

    Funny thing about Hossa is that if you read his scouting report for his draft year he was basically labelled as being all offense and completely useless defensively.

  100. CarlFTWinslow says:

    Paigin back from his knee injury and assigned to the VHL. Likely for conditioning?

    https://twitter.com/RUSProspects/status/791702742175617024

  101. linkfromhyrule says:

    Apparently Tanev won’t be playing against us when we visit VAN on Friday. Excellent!

    I love that we are banking points against mainly western conference opponents. Our only loss was against an Eastern bottom feeder.

    Unfortunately, we are likely one serious injury away from an extended losing streak. Our depth is non-existent.

  102. delooper says:

    I don’t think Hall was a problem at all. He’s an excellent hockey player. He did exacerbate a problem the Oilers had, though. Too many rush players that cheated for offense. Not enough players who could keep the play alive in the offensive zone. With him and Yakupov gone, and the influx of strong cycle-style players, the Oilers are a far more balanced team. That and the defensive upgrade are the two main reasons the Oilers are better.

  103. Woodguy says:

    GCW_69: If I was Murray I would be offering Bieksa whatever plumb after hockey job he wants to waive his trade restrictions and find a way to ship him out of town.

    Bieksa has a NMC too.

    Anchor contract for sure. I doubt it can be moved.

  104. treevojo says:

    I read yesterday that 50% of the posters around here are smarter then Steve Tambellini.

    After reading trade proposals involving nurse( his Vegas exemption ) and a 1st Rd for 6 mil trouba and overhardt or Sami I play one way vatanen I am thinking it must be a little less the 50%.

    Give me stumbling Steve

    I say this with the caveat I am a huge nurse supporter

  105. Woodguy says:

    Stelio Kontos:
    30 games minimum to set up a t-distribution that will semi accurately predicta range where the mean shooting percentage and shooting percentage of opponent is. That’s only raw corsi on a team wide basis. I wouldn’t touch player corsi even over one season. A lot of the stuff flying around seems to be on a hunch, not solid maths. If you are trying to make intelligent observations on less than 1000 shot sample size, you are setting yourself up to fail, even if you use a t-distribution.20 seems like an asspull.

    Here’s a good piece on predicting future GF% that shows the “20 game” thing.

    https://www.google.ca/amp/s/hockey-graphs.com/2015/10/01/expected-goals-are-a-better-predictor-of-future-scoring-than-corsi-goals/amp/?client=ms-android-blackberry

    Figure 6 is the team level graph near the bottom of the piece.

  106. T0ML says:

    treevojo:
    I read yesterday that 50% of the posters around here are smarter then Steve Tambellini.

    After reading trade proposals involving nurse( his Vegas exemption ) and a 1st Rd for 6 mil trouba and overhardt or Sami I play one way vatanen I am thinking it must be a little less the 50%.

    Give me stumbling Steve

    I say this with the caveat I am a huge nurse supporter

    In all fairness im pretty sure its a single poster saying that … I dont think we have had more than one or two in aggreance either….I certainly dont think that would be a good trade.

  107. Woodguy says:

    Little Poteet:
    Hey everyone. Just thought I’d mention, it’s getting to be a good time to hit the PayPal button for our gracious host. He’s having to learn a new skill after all, writing post game blogs after wins!
    In all seriousness, LT and by proxy Mrs LT deserve our gratitude for the hours dedicated to this team and this space

    Agreed.

    LT has been our light during the 10 years of darkness.

  108. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar:
    Trouba is gonna fold like a cheap suitcase and sign with Jets.

    And Thank f^ck.

    @DTMAboutHeart is a leading fancystats analyst and creator of metrics.

    He’s working on a WAR (wins above replacement) metric for hockey players.

    One component of his WAR metric is “expected plus-minus”

    Trouba ranks 2nd in the NHL among Dmen in regards to ” Offensive expected plus-minus”

    https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/10/25/expected-plus-minus/#more-12325

    Seems like I’m not the only one who likes Trouba.

  109. Glass says:

    linkfromhyrule,

    We have some depth. We’re winning with Hendricks, Davidson, Pakarinen, Caggulia, and Fayne injured.

  110. fifthcartel says:

    Glass,

    I’m very skeptical Hendricks is an NHL level player anymore.

  111. Side says:

    Glass:
    linkfromhyrule,

    We have some depth. We’re winning with Hendricks, Davidson, Pakarinen, Caggulia, and Fayne injured.

    Am I crazy, or do I also think we have depth?

    I mean, at this point, it would be concerning if McDavid, Talbot, Klefbom, Larsson, Draisaitl were injured in addition to Hendricks, Davidson, Pakarinen, Caggulia, and Fayne .

    Which seems incredibly unlikely, even with the Oilers’ injury bug history.

  112. npanciroli says:

    fifthcartel,

    I prefer the people we are playing over Hendricks, Pakarinen and Fayne.

    Side,

    Yeah I like our depth except for RW and RHD.

  113. Confused says:

    npanciroli,

    I think RW is okay, Pitlick and slepy are good depth.

    LW is more limited unless JJ comes up.

    RHD is a disaster unless Davidson is nearer than seems.

    Think we are in the waiver market aggressively until the 31st.

  114. Drew says:

    T0ML: In all fairness im pretty sure its a single poster saying that … I dont think we have had more than one or two in aggreance either….I certainly dont think that would be a good trade.

    Well to be fair, I said this thinking about the regular posters during Tambellini’s time on the job. Posters like Woodguy, Speeds, Wheatnoil, Spoiler, Bookjie, Steve Smith, Dellow, etc. were all posting a lot and questioning the GM decisions at the time.

    I believe they understood the situation better than the existing management group at that time. Many of them now work in the NHL or write for a living.

  115. bendelson says:

    An article from the NY Times on the Oilers.
    Nice of them to notice…

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/28/sports/hockey/edmonton-oilers-connor-mcdavid.html?_r=0

  116. JDï™ says:

    Woodguy: LT has been our light during the 10 years of darkness.

    And let’s not forget, “Thanks Bookjie. You’re great!”

  117. JDï™ says:

    bendelson: An article from the NY Times on the Oilers.

    You know what bugs me about that piece?

    N.H.L.

    Leave it to the N.Y.T. to take correctness to such a degree.

  118. linkfromhyrule says:

    Glass:
    linkfromhyrule,

    We have some depth. We’re winning with Hendricks, Davidson, Pakarinen, Caggulia, and Fayne injured.

    True, but how many of those players would be in the lineup on merit if they weren’t injured? Davidson is the only one I can say with confidence. I’m not convinced any of the others are an upgrade on anyone currently playing, but I was more referring to if any of Mcdavid, Eberle, Klef, Larsson, or Talbot go down. We don’t have capable players ready to move up lines.

    Kassian is playing above his ability, the monster G is waiting, and if Ebs goes down our RW depth is non-existant. RW is a huge weak spot right now imo, just waiting for something bad to happen.

    I will say though, depth is MUCH improved over years past in a lot of areas. Just not to the point where we should be satisfied.

  119. GMB3 says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    For those hanging their hats on HDSC, the Maple Leafs have a better HDSC % (record 1-2-3) and the Predators have basically the same (record 2-3) and the Canes are right there (record 1-3-2).

    So there are some lessons here:

    1) This team has played well, but they could have played exactly the same and have a losing record.If this had happened you can bet the perception concerning what was working and what wasn’t would be different.Lesson: never judge a team based on its record.

    2) This team has played well, but the best players by far are McDavid and Talbot, followed by Klefbom.The rest of the team has not played at near this level.Lesson: do not attribute success to factors that are contingent to that success.This is what happens when you turn success into a narrative.The narrative here that the success is attributable to offseason changes.Success in itself is not evidence of this.It is a classic example of question begging (i.e. if success is the variable that you are trying to explain you cannot use the success as part of the explanation).

    Thanks for the lesson but I’m pretty sure at some point in the season, you judge a team based on their record. I’ve noticed you’re a big fan of using hyperbole to try and nail in your criticisms of the Oilers.

  120. Zelepukin says:

    Glass:
    linkfromhyrule,

    We have some depth. We’re winning with Hendricks, Davidson, Pakarinen, Caggulia, and Fayne injured.

    Aside from Davidson, that list doesn’t add up to much of anything. There is no depth solution for a McD or Klef/Larsson.

  121. stevezie says:

    treevojo,

    Tambellini was the worst GM since Millbury. I say with complete sincerity that there are posters on here who are smarter than him and would have made a better GM (history has proven him right on the Hall contract though. Great signing).

    T0ML,

    You’re kind to defend the board, but there are many of us. I won’t comment on specific hypotheticals, but the idea that we would be wise to trade Nurse for someone more immediately excellent is a great one.

    And I like Nurse.

  122. GMB3 says:

    linkfromhyrule: True, but how many of those players would be in the lineup on merit if they weren’t injured? Davidson is the only one I can say with confidence. I’m not convinced any of the others are an upgrade on anyone currently playing, but I was more referring to if any of Mcdavid, Eberle, Klef, Larsson, or Talbot go down. We don’t have capable players ready to move up lines.

    Kassian is playing above his ability, the monster G is waiting, and if Ebs goes down our RW depth is non-existant. RW is a huge weak spot right now imo, just waiting for something bad to happen.

    I will say though, depth is MUCH improved over years past in a lot of areas. Just not to the point where we should be satisfied.

    I agree, but if most teams lose their best player or their best goaltender they also struggle with having the depth to fill those roles. If we lose McDavid for an extended period of time it would obviously hurt, but having RNH and Drai as our 1 and 2 centers wouldn’t be cause to abandon ship, IMO.

  123. jake70 says:

    Old Alumni Ryan Whitney makes his debut on Hockey Central right now with Marek and McLean

  124. theres oil in virginia says:

    JDï™: You know what bugs me about that piece?

    N.H.L.

    Leave it to the N.Y.T. to take correctness to such a degree.

    Correctness is something I’ve never thought to ascribe to the N.Y.T.

    I guess they figure if anybody is gonna believe the lies they tell, they’d better get the grammar right.

  125. Side says:

    GMB3: Thanks for the lesson but I’m pretty sure at some point in the season, you judge a team based on their record. I’ve noticed you’re a big fan of using hyperbole to try and nail in your criticisms of the Oilers.

    I wouldn’t waste your energy on someone who believes Lucic isn’t worth a 7th round pick.

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