MCILRATH, PAAJARVI ON WAIVERS
Two interesting names are on waivers today, one a former Edmonton Oiler. Should Edmonton make a claim on one or both? Let’s start with the 50-man list.
CURRENT 50-MAN (48)
- This is my understanding of the current 50-man list for the Edmonton Oilers. Some include Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones, but those contracts are slide rules, and since both players are back in junior the contracts will not kick in until 2017-18.
- Edmonton was willing to go to 49 contracts, based on the contract offer to Kris Versteeg.
- This blog has long argued that balance has not yet been achieved. A two-way RW (Pisani), a RHD who can move the puck and a substantial backup goalie are on my list, your mileage may vary.
DYLAN MCILRATH
I liked Dylan McIlrath in his draft year (ranked him No. 4 D, No. 15 overall) but the NY Rangers liked him more. At 6.05, 220 and built like a brick outhouse, McIlrath had to be high on Edmonton’s list based on their own past (Alex Plante, Matt Greene, Theo Peckham, others). Here is some verbal from his draft year:
- Mike Remmerde: I love this guy and I think he’ll surprise on draft day. Scouts who have seen a lot of him understand he’s got a more well-rounded game than he gets credit for. If I was picking in the 8-15 range, I’d really argue for this guy. Source
- Kirk Luedeke: Biggest wingspan of any player in the 2010 draft class with an 83-inch reach; allows him to effectively employ a pokecheck on defense, and also comes in very handy when fighting; he ragdolls opponents and keeps them at arm’s length while pounding them. Straight-line speed is above average; can get up the ice well once he gets going. A feared open-ice hitter; reads the play well and anticipates where an opponent will be, then lowers the boom. Very good defensive sense- understands his positioning and clears the crease with abandon. Source
I liked McIlrath for the size and speed, but the NHLE suggested we weren’t dealing with an offensive prospect. Most of this scouting report remains true from what we know, but the game has changed in the last five years—bigly. If Edmonton picked up McIlrath, it would help fight the Leftorium, but there isn’t a lot of evidence that suggests (to me) McIlrath would be a better option than Eric Gryba. Remember, if McIlrath gets the job, he would be third pairing, with Darnell Nurse or Brandon Davidson.
DYLAN MCILRATH 2015-16
- 5×5 points per 60: 0.54
- 5×4 points per 60: nil
- Corsi for 5×5 %: 51.3
- Qual Comp: third pairing
- Qual Team: third pairing
- Corsi for 5×5 % REL: 2.9
- Shots on goal/percentage: 28 shots/7.1%
- Boxcars: 34GP, 2-2-4
- Information via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com, behindthenet.ca and hockey-reference.
He is inexpensive, an enforcer, and has 38 games in NHL experience. For me, the future of RHD in Edmonton is probably Adam Larsson followed by to be determined, with Brandon Davidson, Kris Russell and Matt Benning all in the mix—along with Brent Burns next summer (I kid. Probably).
MAGNUS PAAJARVI
We know Magnus really well, I don’t feel a need to update you on him (but you can read what I wrote here). He is somewhat like Anton Lander, in that offense is the issue with this player. Unlike Lander, MPS can flat out fly—I mean he would be one of the fastest Oilers the minute his skates carved the ice.
Is there a spot for Magnus? Getting mighty crowded. The 4L right now is Lander or Anton Slepyshev, and the 4R is Tyler Pitlick. I honestly like Magnus a lot, and think he would really help out in the speed department, but Matt Hendricks is coming back and there is probably no room at the inn.
If I had to pick one of these two for Edmonton to pluck from waivers, it would be Paajarvi. So, McIlrath it is.
Absolutely hated that Mcilrath pick.Draft day 2010. Some stupid team is going to think they are smarter than everyone else and take Mcilrath way too high and will continue the trend of limited defenseman taken way too high. Today it comes true
If McIlrath wasn’t awesome at fighting would he have been a first rounder? I’m surprised to see that Remmerde clearly says yes. Maybe he’s right?
I don’t have a lot of passion either way. As a guy who doesn’t see a lot of Rangers games he doesn’t look much different from Gryba.
Interesting post at Beer League Heroes about the potential value of McIlrath.
http://www.beerleagueheroes.com/oilers-likely-not-oilers/
I’d take him. Try to trade a Musil or other Leftorium resident who doens’t fit into our long term plans, and improve the lefty/righty balance issue while not adding to the 50-man roster (to keep options available for that Pisani/Backup/puck-mover-righty-D).
Do the Oilers really need more offensively deficient players? Pass on both.
I’m noticing people are looking too far in the future when considering the Oilers’ Schedule. The Schedule should exist in three parts. The next two games finish off October, away at Vancouver, then back home verses Ottawa. Both games are eminently winnable. Then the Oilers go on their first long road trip down East. Five games with a back-to-back in 8 days could be a test for the Oilers. Then we have the rest of the Season. I don’t understand how good the Eastern Teams are and I’m not sure how good the Oilers really are. Planning any futher ahead is just wishful thinking.
stevezie,
The last thing I ever thought I would be doing is defending Tambellini.
I have no doubt there are posters on here that are more intelligent.
But I don’t think it’s fair to associate his intelligence with his time as the oilers gm.
Unless you are from the inner circle it is hard to know what his marching orders were and how much actual power he had.
I have serious doubts on his autonomy.
Blues vs Red Wings looks good so far.
Detroit are the best team I’ve seen this season.
I think it’s fair to say that just because he had a tough time as an NHL GM, that doesn’t mean he’s an idiot.
In fairness to Lowe and co., I don’t think anyone has ever tried to burn it down to build it up to the degree that they did. It’s easy to make mistakes in uncharted territory.
That said, oof. Yikes.
I’m going to go with neither.
stevezie,
– Tambellini was GM when we finally got a AHL team all to ourselves, so there is that
– And he was stuck in the OBC which didn’t help his cause
– The smugness and arrogance and defiance of MacT and Lowe though: I will not forgive that. If I ever meet either of them, I will start by telling them it must have been fun to have been a part in all those Stanley Cups. And then I will tell them that it must be fun to be in the background, seeing all the things that this current management team has done to improve the team after 10 years of poor management.
– When the Oilers were winning, there was the “Oiler Way”, an ethos that went through the organization. They were classy. Of course winning does that. But MacT and Lowe (both totally replaceble, non-vital parts of those Cup winning teams, there is no doubt), had this underserved swagger, and unwarranted belief in their abilities as management, based on nothing other than they were lucky enough to have an owner who idolized them and gifted them jobs.
it still pisses me off that Tambo wouldn’t go any higher than a second plus Jones for Bishop
There is much doubt. I think you underrate MacT and greatly underrate Lowe. I mean, sure they were both “replaceable”, but not easily repalceable. Especially Lowe. Helluva fine player.
But yeah, incredibly arrogant managers. Just unbelievably so. Like what they hell could they have possibly been thinking.
As far as Tambo goes, maybe his hands were tied, maybe not, I try to avoid speculating on behind the scenes stuff. His name was on those teams and the moves that made them.
Would it not be reasonable to pick up Mcillrath and give Nurse a stint in the A. Obviously can’t do it now, but Klef-Larsson, Sekera-Larson, Davidson-Mcillrath seems reasonable. I still think Nurse has something to take from some AHL time. Even as an extra goon, he seems like a reasonable bet. Not like you can’t just waive him again.
To me, McIlrath is a no brainer, if only to get Benning out of the Press Box and into the AHL where he will actually be playing.
You know what’s a more fun historical debate? Should MacT have caved and given Vancouver what they wanted for Schnieder.
On the one hand, he is clearly one of the top 5 goalies in the league right now, maybe top 3, hitting the rare trifecta of elite, consistent and healthy. True team changer.
On the other hand, Vancouver wanted the ninth overall from from New Jersey, but from Edmonton the ask was the 7th, the 37th and Martin Marincin (http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/vancouver-canucks-premium-edmonton-oilers-cory-schneider).
That ask is a middle finger. It is just short of asking them to throw in carnal knowledge of a family member. Saying yes would have been a message that we’ll cave- that any team wanting to deal with us need only hold out and we’ll cave. Just an insult of an offer.
But still, Schnieder would have been worth it. Dubnyk wouldn’t have set the season on fire, the coach wouldn’t have lost the team as quickly- I mean who knows! Who knows what would have happened!
Eventually you could say “and we wouldn’t have got McDavid” but that’s cheating as it justifies every bad decision ever. Pretend we were trying to win for the last few years: What was the right play?
Stelio Kontos,
I think this makes a lot of sense, but once Davidson is healthy it makes just as much sense with Gryba as MciLrath, no?
I would take MPS IF they can ditch a grunt LW contract off the farm. If he was a C I`d ditch Lander for him.
I think we should consider looking past waiver wire pick ups maybe soon. Most won`t be better than who is there.
Giant D are going to go the way of the dodo as it stands. They are needed if obstruction is ok, a liability if it is a skating game.
While Mcllrath is no lidstrom, I think he’s an effective hockey player, and prolly more so in the west.
He’s never pushed his way into the rangers, but they’ve also never given him a true shot. AV would rather play nick Holden on his offside, which seems very strange to me.
– I’m not saying MacT or Lowe weren’t decent players, but they don’t win a cup unless they are lucky enough to be with Gretz, Mess, Kurri, Coffey, Fuhr, Moog, Anderson, etc.
– Sure they played their role properly, but there were plenty of players in the NHL at that time who could have played the same role as those two guys. They were lucky to be playing on those rosters, else their careers would not be nearly as celebrated.
– Winning inflates the value of secondary players in the minds of fans (and in the case of those two, it clearly inflated their view of themselves.
– Without those clowns though, there would be not McD: that is their legacy in management!
Why is McIlraith on waivers
If he can’t crack the team he is on, how will he crack a First Place Oilers line up ?
MacTavish was a very good player pre Oiler. I thought he was great before his troubles. I was happy when Sather got him. A skilled centre on any other team, a third liner on that Oilers team.
Lowe was drafted and became a cornerstone of the franchise as you hope drafted players do, right away.
The fact the Oilers were so dominant had to do with the acumen and the wobbly boot (LUCK). Deep teams loaded with talent and speed.
If you watched it and the Esks you were fortunate to see two teams be absolutely dominant.
A rare thing to be sure, salve for the lost years, hopefully a few ultimate wins coming.
Yeah, but Gryba is what he is and McIlrath is still fairly young, and more physical and actually maybe a better skater. I’d pick him up and have the two fight each other for the spot. I think Dylan also has a big shot. Am I remembering that wrong?
Why is it that guys like Magnus Pajaarvi and Sam Gagner put up their best #’s as rookies with the Oilers and regressed from that point forward?
You do know they won a cup without five of the players you specifically name-dropped, right?
– I guess it depends on what you mean by good player: MacT was 160th in scoring in 1983, when he was 25. His equivalent today is a player like say Alex Killorn. Nice player for sure, but everyone would say Artem Anisomov is way better, becasue he plays for a winning team. I’d name 20 C who replace MacT and those Oilers win the same amount of cups: Doug Jarvis, Butch Goring, Pt Verbeek, Brent Sutter, his brother Ron, Dan Quinn, you’ve never heard of Alan Haworth: he had game, Kelly Kisio, Thomas Steen (loved him), Laurie Boschman (loved him), Dake Hunter, and on and on. Any of those guys instead of MacT, they still win all those cups.
– Same for Lowe: good player, but Rob Ramage, Doug Wilson, Babych, Mark Howe, Mario Marois, Brad Maxwell and on an on: you replace Lowe with any of dozen of D, they still win those cups
– We just tend to over-value them because they played on our team: they were lucky, and replacable parts. Dozens’ of MacT’s/Lowes: no other Gretz/Mess/Kurri/Coffey, Anderson etc…They were passengers on those great buses: not the drivers.
There seems to be fewer McIlrath’s drafted as high as they were now, Logan Stanley posted very little offense and he was only drafted 18th. It’s much more common to see the foward versions of McIlrath drafted high still, Crouse/Virtanens.
Hockey News from October 13, 1983: The left wing situation is crowded with Mike Krushelnyski, Craig MacTavish, Brad Palmer, Mike Gillis, Luc Dufour and rookies Nevin Markwart, Geoff Courtnall and Dave Reid all in the race.
Krushelnyski, a reformed center, was the only one assured of a job at left wing. MacTavish (10 goals), Mike Gillis (goalless in 5 games), Dufour (14 goals) and and Palmer (6 goals) fighting for their jobs.
“When you score 10 goals, as I did last year, you’re expendable,” said MacTavish. “I did a lot of skating in the summer. When your job is on the line, you have to come to camp in good shape. You can’t afford to get yourself in good shape once you get here.”
“The only reason they got me in the first place was for my scoring,” said Palmer. “But last year it got to the point where I couldn’t even score in practice. Hopefully they still believe I can do it.”
One left winger who showed up at camp by surprise was Stan Jonathan, 28. He provided the Bruins with a certain toughness and fisticuffs during six years in Boston. Markwart, who was drafted by the Bruins in the first round, 21st overall, in the 1983 draft. “My major strength is I play really aggressive. I’m not afraid to use my body. I’d like to be bigger, but I’m not.”
—
The Bruins ended up breaking camp with MacTavish, Dufour, Markwart and Krushelnyski on the roster, and here’s how each of their careers progressed:
Mike Krushelnyski became a pretty famous player. Among his 801 NHL games from fall 1983 to the end of his career were a ton with Gretzky, in Edmonton and then Los Angeles. He was a very good hockey player into the 90s, and scored 25 goals in 83-84.
Craig MacTavish had a very fine NHL career, playing in 946 NHL games from fall 1983 onward. He popped 20 goals in 83-84 which was his final year with the Bruins.
Brad Palmer’s NHL career was over. He spent 83-84 in the AHL and then to Finland and Austria, and was done by summer 1990.
Mike Gillis played the 83-84 season with the Bruins as an extra man, scoring only 6 goals. He would be heard from again by the NHL, but not as a player.
Luc Dufour split the 83-84 season between the AHL and the NHL. He would be dealt the following October to Quebec but didn’t play much there either.
Nevin Markwart did make the NHL at age 19, but it probably hurt his long term development. He had 30 points in 83-84 as a rookie, but that was his career high.
Geoff Courtnall played 5 games with the big club at the end of the 83-84 season, but wouldn’t make the grade for real until 84-85 (at 22). He had a fine NHL career, but not in Boston (which is pretty much a theme here).
Dave Reid played 8 games for the Bruins and then made the NHL midway through the following season. He had a long career as an effective role player and was on the 1999 Dallas team.
I don’t think they’re world-beaters without Talbot posting a .970, but I have a crazy feeling that this team will be able to get at least 74 points out of its next 75 games and for some reason it makes me want to puke and laugh or cry or something.
In my opinion you don`t understand the dynamics of what makes a winning team in an absolutely team sport.
No league team is made of all elite players in almost any sport.
Every player on a dynasty made a contribution, the less key players changed more often.
The Oilers aren`t as different on the roster as on the ice this year. Same with the Habs.
I agree with the general point Colton Teubert, Alex plante types have taken a knock recently. Virtanen had 45 goals and a ppg at 18. Pretty far from a crouse, or McNiel.
khildahl,
– I don’t follow? On that 1990 team, Mark Lamb was a way more effective C. MacT was a passenger, that without Esa/Messier/Kurri/Simpson/Ranford, the Kid Line, they don’t win.
– Lowe was one of Smith/Muni/Huddy/Gregg/Reijo. He was part of a strong group of D, and didn’t play all the games in that playoff either.
– MacT/Lowe are “legends” for the teams they played on. They didn’t make the difference.
– This is often lost on Oil fans, and part of a narrative that I can’t stand about the Oil.
Dylan Wells stops 36 of 38, now at .923 for the year. He is having a nice draft +1 season (10 games now) so far.
– I think you over-value the contribution of a MacT or Lowe, and I agree they were not elite players, that’s my point!
– I like LT’s post re: Boston. Players on bad teams become bigger players on winning teams: they were very lucky to part of a winning organization and they got the best out of their abilities.
We all have different memories of course, and the Oilers won because of their super nova’s for sure. My own recall has Kevin Lowe playing a large role in those Stanley Cups, and MacTavish was a very important checking center and penalty killer. Again, we all recall things differently, but that is my memory.
I was actually referring to the 1994 New York Rangers, who didn’t have 5 of the 7 great players Kinger brought up.
Whichever scout was banging that drum should be getting a nice fruit basket sent his way. That was a pure scouting pick.
Oh. Well. Carry on. 🙂
Wells has been first star in at least three of the ten games.
At start of last year he was rated either one or two for goalies in draft.
Lost his confidence and played poorly but seems to have mojo back.
kinger_OIL,
Water Fire,
If I may be so bold, you’re both right.
One of you is saying you need guys like MacT and Lowe to win. The other is saying that you need guys like MacT and Lowe- not MacT and Lowe specifically (which you couldn’t say about Kurri, Mess, Anderson etc.)
I think this is fair to say about MacT. Great stickhandler for a checking C, but realistically there are other excellent checking Cs. not hundreds, but some.
I think kinger underrates Lowe. Many, many, many good players are not capable of being passengers on 6 cup winning teams. We mock him for the quote, but he really did know a thing or two about winning. Yes, if you switched him with Rob Rammage maybe you switch their reputations, but maybe if you put Lowe on a weaker team he stands out more too.
He wasn’t a star but I’d put him closer to contributor than passenger. You’re talking about him as if he was Dave Lumley.
I’ll be honest: I don’t know. If I was Chia and someone with an opinion I trusted told me McIlrath was worth the shot I’d take him and try him in place of Gryba. If they shrugged I’d probably stick with the vet.
Value of vet vs. upside. Interesting. Looks like a close call to me but I don’t know McIlrath well.
khildahl,
The 1990 cup wining Oilers didn’t have 4 of the seven!
Just picking up on a theme from earlier in the thread – and one that I find in many others : “(Such and such previous management blunder) led to McDavid.”
I don’t think this point should be taken as justification for (such and such previous management blunder), rather it should be taken to mean “Why are we even talking about this?”
That’s to say, you can’t possibly want to go back and improve the team circa 2013, can you? Whatever darkness we have gone through is (hopefully) over – McDavid makes any other continuum seem absurd.
I know it’s unrealistic to expect the community to stop playing the ‘what-if’ game, it’s fun, but we are now in a place where it makes sense to move on.
Go Nuge!
It’s great how teams like St Louis and Washington no longer seem like super teams.
Oilers are my fave NHL team to watch, as Chiarelli/McLellan fashion a contender as soon as this freaking season.
Idiots who have no understanding of the finer points of hockey think RNH is terrible.
Meanwhile, he’s the glue that holds centre ice together for the Young Lions.
Chiarelli’s got those two NHL defencemen in Larsson and Russell.
Both are playing lights out along with everyone else on the team, lol.
I expect Nurse to soar in value as the season progresses. The best thing is, Lucic probably tells Nurse not to worry about thumping in everyone’s faces – leaving him more time to think hockey.
It’s going to be weird when Chiarelli loads up at the deadline rather than the usual deadline where the organization loses Jeff Petry for beans.
I love Nuge and I think “Young Lions” is a great calling card for this core group.
Young Lions generally start out getting their asses kicked; before they get an NHL coach in Todd McLennan then suddenly even Washington and St Louis are Cammalleri – sized antelopes(see Gerta Rauss for further info).
Cheering for the this Oilers team this year reminds me of a joke.
Two guys on opposite sides of the globe. One is walking the tightrope between 100 storey buildings & the other is getting a “gummer” from a 100 year old grandma. Both guys are thinking the exact same thing….Don’t look down.
I hope the team keeps their heads up as well.
I always liked Magnus better at RW than LW, and I’d pick him between the two if it were up to me. Not sure we have a spot for either though.
Another way to think about it is how did Gretz do after the Oilers? He asspulled the Kings to the final once.
Messier won two more. With a bunch of those replacement level guys in both cities.
I could be wrong but I believe McIlrath qualifies as a group VI UFA this summer based on his GP.
If the Oilers claim him, he’ll need to appear in 42 games to remain RFA.
If he fails to get into 42 Games, then he is UFA.
Again, I could be wrong.
I have been wrong before.
I think.
Kinger Oil, I agree more or less with the proposition that Lowe and MacT were more famous as players than outstanding. By memory, I’d say Lowe was a better defensive D than MacT was a C, MacT had very effective years in the 3C role but held the puck too long to use his line mates effectively in the 2C role. He wasn’t a passer by instinct. They both made real contributions to multiple cup runs and there were other players who could have filled the same roles. I wonder however if you aren’t setting up an unrealistic standard by your list of players, I’m not sure they are entirely comparable. These weren’t support players, they include some of the best players in the league at the time in Doug Wilson (1 Norris) Mark Howe (3 Norris nominations), while Ramage, Babych and Marois were always among the leading D-men scorers in the league. That wasn’t Lowe’s job. Jarvis and Goring were both award-winning (Selke, Byng Masterton) defensive forwards with some nice touch while Kisio, Quinn and Verbeek (who scored 40+ several times) were excellent 2 way players who played higher up in the lineup than MacT and on the PP. Of course they could have replaced MacT. Quinn just might be the most underrated of all of them, damn Falmer. Other than Steen. Fantastic player, but he was the Jet’s 2C and outstanding in that role. Boschman was a good player but he was traded for Lindstrom before the Oilers won a cup and after he had scored eight goals or something while in the 3C role that MacT filled a little later on. So, he was quite replaceable indeed.
So, yah, Lowe and MacT were not the best in the league in their job description and got lots of camera time nevertheless. That doesn’t make them dead weight however, which seems to what you are arguing, if I read your message right. In any case, guys like Howe and Wilson weren’t available for love or money and certainly not to be put anywhere but 1st pair and long minutes.
Shifting gears here….
Apparently Las Vegas will be able to talk to unsigned UFAs of every team in the league for 48 hours before the expansion draft.
If they sign a UFA from a team, they will get that player instead of new unprotected player.
Maybe Kris Russell will be appealing. Or if the Oilers are in a layoff position it would be in their best interest to trade for a good UFA that Vegas would have interest in.
Kris Russell has a corsi-rel of -2.97
Now, it’s early days, but… how much should we adjust his number for playing on a lefty-lefty pair on his off side?
Why are you playing with these numbers — what is your objective?
Why do you watch hockey – what is your objective?
Heard some folks freaking that the Oilers are a mirage due to their PDO of 1061. … Ya, 6-1 is definitely a mirage. No team is going to win 6 of 7 with a bad sh% sv%.
But there’s no doubt the Oilers are much improved. The scoring chance differential and dangerous Fenwick support the idea that the Oilers are competing. Combine that with some puck luck and voilà 6-1.
The PDO will come back to earth and the Oilers *may still likely miss the playoffs, but there’s no doubt in my mind that this team is a playoff contender and could make the playoffs just as easily as it could miss them. A high PDO doesn’t mean your team is actually bad, just that it has been getting lucky. I think the Oilers probably have played at a baseline deserving to be something like 3-2-2 or 4-3 right now, the puck luck boosted them to 6-1.
*may still likely: Dregerism when one is unwilling to commit to one’s convictions
I want to have a discussion over whether / how much we should be giving Russell credit for playing on the right side.
As some know, I value CorsiRel highly, and it does shine a light imo. We are seeing a similar gap on the third pairing. Early days, but interesting.
Kmart99,
That PDO was middle of the pack for the first 4 or 5 games I believe. I remember checking when the record was 3-1 and they were 15th or so. Think I even posted as much here.
With a small sample size the teams that got off to a good start tend to be the teams high on that list. No issues there, of course it will balance out, and of course we won’t go 6-1 in every 7 game sample.
Craziest thing about PDO right now?
SJ Sharks. 27th in PDO at .974. 2nd in the Pacific at 5-3-0.
That’s still a very good team folks.
Here come the Kings
Pouzar,
Bingo.
In a 7 game stretch if your team gets a shutout it’s going to throw your PDO out of wack. You only need to win by 1, so when you win by a bunch it has a big impact if you’ve only played a few games. It will normalize, but we will also start winning by 1 instead of by 3.
In our 6 wins only 1 is a 1 goal win. That’s not going to last.
The Kings are also way down there, but that’s partially due to an expected drop in save percentage (Quick being hurt). They are also only 3-3. Sharks are a better team right now in my book (best in the Pacific I believe) and their PDO is only marginally above LA.
But yeah, LA should get better too.
Glad we’re stockpiling points. It would be a shame to let this early stretch of relatively easy games go to waste.
Just noticed (I’ll shut up after this, promise)…
Bottom 3 shooting percentages in the league
30: Washington (that’s not going to last) 7.0%
29: NJ (Expected) 7.1%
28: SJ (Also not going to last though partially driven by the massive amount of shots Burns takes from the blueline) 7.4%
In the early days of this blog Rob vollman posted on here.
I remember ti being rob theat introduced the concept.
% of bad starts to good starts.
rather than overall measures.
Form Day one thought of it as a great consept.
Use it as my measure relative to open/closed HSC shots.
Cooper n Blue used to post an item called ‘Clear Victories”. It was the number of games teams won by two or more goals that did not include empty netters.
This was done because good teams often won by two or more non-empties and that there was weak correlation in a team’s ability to win by one goal consistently, ie a ‘defensive’ team or using a narrative of ‘we find a way to win’ too many times.
That isn’t to say teams shoudn’t play defensively – they should IMO – but that a team on a run of one goal wins is likely more hot than good, probably on a PDO run.
If the Oilers begin showing an ability to win by two ‘regular’ goals in a lot of their wins that is a very good sign.
I’m a big fan of Paajarvi, but at this point Pitlick and Slepyshev are better fits for us.
Plus generally, GMs don’t make changes to shuffle the deck when things are going well.
If we’re hitting the waiver wire, it should be for a RW with some offense, to put on RNH’s line when we send Puljujarvi down.
jimmers2,
– So I’ve said they were good players, they did their job well
– But post-5 Cups I have not at all been into the roles they played in this organziation, and the idolation they had. They were good players. To win a cup you need a bunch of players and roles. They both played their role well. They were not dead-weights, that was your interpretation?
– They just fell ass-backward into management positions, based on their participation on one of the greatest sport teams every assembled, and an owner who was mesmorized by them.
– To me, the legacy of these two clowns is more towards: “lucky to be part of a great team”, and “only they could have got us McD”, not: amazing hockey players who bleed Oil, and should be part of the organziation based on any merit.
– I know its a bugaboo of mine, but really they were non-elite good players whose role on the Cup winning teams is in my opinion exaggerated greatly. And they are going to be around for this resurgence of the Oil, all smug and cocky in the background
– Lowe was a top-4 D, and MacT a 3/4C. They had nice careers, were good, not-great players. You need those guys of course to win a cup a necessary but insufficient requirement.
kinger_OIL,
Kinger oil,
Just found your reply, belatedly. I agree with much, if not pretty much all of your argument as you have pared it down here. Thanks!