G17 2016-17 OILERS AT DUCKS

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers have a three-game trip through the Western Conference this week, and could come home 9-9-1—and if that happens the fan base might embark on another ‘trailers for Kingsway’ crusade. On the other hand, a 2-1-0 trip has the town team at 11-7-1 and posting nine points in 10 November games. Can this team win two in California?

YOU CAN CHECK OUT ANY TIME YOU WANT, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2
  • Oilers in November 2016: 2-4-1 goal differential -6
  • Oilers after 16, 2015: 6-10-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers after 16, 2016: 9-6-1, goal differential +4

November has 30 days and 15 games, our line in the sand for the Oilers is 15 points. Currently the team is on pace to post just 11 points, meaning that on the current November pace the club’s record will be (something like) 11-10-3 (25 points in 24 games). Disappointing results after such a terrific start, lack of scoring depth has us here. G17 last year was a loss to the Arizona Coyotes 4-1, OEL and Tobias Reider playing well for the home side.

OILERS MOST SUCCESSFUL LINES

  • (via Corsica.hockey and using 5×5 Corsi for percentage. These are lines over 50 minutes and posting a number more than 50 percent).
  1. Maroon—Draisaitl—Puljujarvi 56.91 in 70 minutes
  2. Maroon—McDavid—Eberle 54.48 in 62 minutes
  3. Lucic—McDavid—Eberle 54.43 in 122 minutes
  4. Pouliot—Nuge—Kassian 50.55 in 97 minutes

These are interesting lines and I do wonder if we see some shuffle on this trip. Some combination of Nuge, Leon and Lucic has to start posting strong possession numbers and creating boxcars at 5×5.

  • Todd McLellan: “I don’t know what the lines are going to be yet. I don’t think you punish a player forever, I think you give guys an opportunity and in the past he’s (Eberle) shown to be able to play there, in fact he’s one of our top scoring forwards and that line has carried us offensively. One bad night doesn’t make a season so I think there is a chance he’ll get back there.”

Moving Eberle to the Nuge line (with Poo) is probably the most reasonable bet, these three have had success in the past. Trading Taylor Hall meant the team is down to one driver (97) and it is imperative McLellan find a second line that can wheel. Leon on RW might also work, but then you are dealing with a grim landscape on lines three and four.

Leon has scored 0-2-2 5×5 with Lucic in about 70 minutes together (1.69 5×5/60) and Lucic is 1-1-2 (same 5×5), so all is not lost and the possession number comes in around 50 percent. Combined with Pitlick’s magical possession number with McDavid (69.7 in 21 minutes) perhaps the lines should look like this tonight:

  • Maroon—McDavid—Pitlick
  • Pouliot—Nuge—Eberle
  • Lucic—Draisaitl—Kassian
  • Lander—Letestu—Slepyshev

Something like that. It is perhaps too much for Pitlick, but at this point I think Todd McLellan may just want to get another line going in hopes of squeezing out sparks. We wait .

OILERS FORWARDS EVEN-STRENGTH POINTS

  1. Connor McDavid 16gp, 5-9-14
  2. Patrick Maroon 16gp, 6-2-8
  3. Jordan Eberle 16gp, 4-4-8
  4. Tyler Pitlick 16gp, 5-1-6
  5. Milan Lucic 16gp, 3-1-4
  6. Benoit Pouliot 16gp, 3-1-4
  7. Mark Letestu 16gp, 0-4-4
  8. Zack Kassian 13gp, 2-2-4
  9. Leon Draisaitl 16gp, 1-2-3
  10. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 16gp, 0-3-3
  11. Anton Lander 15gp, 1-2-3
  12. Jesse Puljujarvi 13gp, 0-2-2
  13. Anton Slepyshev 6gp, 1-0-1

I published the 5×5/60 numbers yesterday, had some questions about differences in totals. This is the list from NHL.com, and that includes empty-net goals and various other stray even-strength moments. Now, one of the things that you should also know is the power-play totals—because some of the struggling 5×5 performers are playing well with the man advantage:

  1. Connor McDavid 16gp, 0-5-5
  2. Leon Draisaitl 16gp, 2-1-3
  3. Milan Lucic 16gp, 2-1-3
  4. Jordan Eberle 16gp, 1-2-3
  5. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 16gp, 2-0-2
  6. Patrick Maroon 16gp, 0-1-1
  7. Jesse Puljujarvi 13gp, 1-0-1

YAKETY YAK

yakupov draft capture

  • Ken Hitchcock on Nail Yakupov’s benching and possible scratch: “Yak got out of sorts positionally, and we needed to grab it back. That’s the best way to describe it.” Source

I hope the young man finds a place, but really Hitchock is not the first coach I would have picked for him. Nail is scoring (1.83 5×5/60) enough to stay in the lineup but the team is struggling compared to its own expectations. NHL teams always need some firepower and Yak has some nice things. Soldier on, young man.

MOVING ON

  • Taylor Hall: “I probably watched every game I could at the start of the year. Lately I haven’t tuned in too much. I’ve got too much going on here and to be honest I just kind of care less and less as the weeks go on.” Source

Completely healthy approach, good to see the young man moving on with his life. I think a lot of Oilers fans have moved with him, ala Peyton Manning to the Broncos. I did not make that emotional journey, but do understand why people have trouble taking a next step—whatever that may be for them. I think Taylor Hall is going set the New Jersey swamps on fire, and hope he wins a Stanley there.

UNTIL WE MEET AGAIN

standings-nov-15

  • Oilers are unlikely to hold off the California teams much longer, and then it comes down to Arizona and the two Canadian clubs.
  • There is a sense that the Oilers have lost six of eight and the other teams have been hot, but in truth no team in this division is close to being consistent. San Jose’s 6-4-0 represents the best record in the division over the last 10 games, and is just three points better than Edmonton’s 4-5-1 record.
  • Oilers GF-GA of 45-41 is a hair better than league average (42-42).
  • Edmonton’s save percentage (.920) remains clear of league average (.913).
  • The power play has scored eight goals, one shy of the rest of the league.
  • PK has given up just five goals, nine being the average.
  • Connor McDavid (16gp, 5-14-19) is tied for No. 3 in points this season, Jordan Eberle (16gp, 5-7-12) is tied for No. 41. Patrick Maroon (16gp, 6-3-9) and Milan Lucic (16gp, 5-4-9) are tied for No. 101 in scoring league wide.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Today on the show, we kick some butt and take some names. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, Cult of Hockey. Avoiding a prolonged slump will be key to Edmonton’s playoff hopes. How do they do it?
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. Edmonton’s fade and the Eastern Conference spike, plus Mark Scheifele emerging.
  • Andy McNamara, TSN4Downs. Dallas Cowboys are going to win the Super Bowl again, the only question is when?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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Ca$h-McMoney!

Pouzar: Actually ‘right now’ is exactly when it’s a prob. We are dominating teams 5 on 5 recently with nothing to show for it. You need a functional PP to give you a chance to at least get a game to OT when the PDHo is kickin yer ass.

But again, it’s the #19 PP, and it’s 1 goal away from being better than most including some pretty great teams. That’s the thing with small samples.

So yes, you are right, it’s not helping. But it’s not something worth getting all that excited about either. The way you are talking about it you’d think we were in dead last in PP%.

hags9k

If only the PP had a cannon at the top things would be groovy. We could really use the odd goal from the point 5×5 too.

To find the first Oiler D in league scoring, you have to scroll and scroll down (to 71st) to find Sekera’s 17gp 1-4-5 line.

Larsson, while a very good player, does not appear to represent a solution to the 1D problem.

If the plan is to do it by committee, the committee better get going.

Pouzar

frjohnk:
On the PP

Average NHL team takes 98 shot attempts per 60
51.45 shots hit the net.
52% of shot attempts hit the net.

Edmonton takes 92 shot attempts per 60
44.8 shots hit the net.
48.5% of shot attempts hit the net.

Below average here.

Matches my eye.

Pouzar

frjohnk: trade RNH for Dumba.

My Gawd that would be awful.
What’s Corey Potter up to?

Pouzar

Ca$h-McMoney!: But it’s hardly the end of the world right now.

Actually ‘right now’ is exactly when it’s a prob. We are dominating teams 5 on 5 recently with nothing to show for it. You need a functional PP to give you a chance to at least get a game to OT when the PDHo is kickin yer ass.

frjohnk

On the PP

Average NHL team takes 98 shot attempts per 60
51.45 shots hit the net.
52% of shot attempts hit the net.

Edmonton takes 92 shot attempts per 60
44.8 shots hit the net.
48.5% of shot attempts hit the net.

Below average here.

frjohnk

Shots for per 60 ( 5×4)
Winnipeg Jets 63.1
San Jose Sharks 62.2
Washington Capitals 60.2
Tampa Bay Lightning 58.3
Anaheim Ducks 58.1
Pittsburgh Penguins 58.1
Philadelphia Flyers 57.7
New York Rangers 55.9
Toronto Maple Leafs 54.9
St Louis Blues 54.8
Los Angeles Kings 54.8
Dallas Stars 54.7
New Jersey Devils 54.4
Nashville Predators 54.3
New York Islanders 54.0
Boston Bruins 53.1
Buffalo Sabres 53.0
Chicago Blackhawks 51.4
Florida Panthers 50.6
Ottawa Senators 49.3
Columbus Blue Jackets 48.9
Detroit Red Wings 48.1
Calgary Flames 47.8
Minnesota Wild 46.4
Edmonton Oilers 44.9
Colorado Avalanche 41.5
Vancouver Canucks 40.0
Carolina Hurricanes 38.9
Montreal Canadiens 37.3
Arizona Coyotes 37.2

frjohnk

Pouzar: There is absolutely no plan on the current PP. It’s pass and hope. Teams know there is no shot coming so just be disciplined in your positioning and stay at home.

Ive always maintained that we have too many left handed skill guys and nothing on the right side and that limits the options of what a PP can do.

Even if JP in a couple of years can hammer it like a mini Ovechkin, we will still need a RHD with a bomb. Otherwise the opposing team will just cheat to cover JP. A RHD with a bomb will help create the seam needed for McDavid to feather those passes.

Ovechkin and Backstrom have been dynamite over the last 8 years on the PP. But what also helps is that Mike Green and John Carlson also have had bombs from the point. So Backstrom has had two very good right handed options and the PK could not cheat to just cover Ovie.

We need two good right handed options. JP might be the home grown one ready in a couple of years. But we have nothing on D.

So either sign Burns
or
trade RNH for Dumba.

Thats what will happen

Scungilli Slushy

Coaching for offense is hard. They all can coach for defense but those teams don’t win in the playoffs too often for me, like the Wild and Preds for years for example. What a huge difference when Johnson took over in Pitts. McLellan is worrying me.

Ca$h-McMoney!

Pouzar: There is absolutely no plan on the current PP. It’s pass and hope. Teams know there is no shot coming so just be disciplined in your positioning and stay at home.

Reading the verbal about our powerplay on these boards I figured we must be in or around dead last in the league.

Our powerplay is 19th. Ahead of teams like Min, Was, LA.

If we had scored 1 more goal it would be 14th, just ahead of Chicago and just behind San Jose.

Does it need work? Absolutely. I’d like it to be in the top 10, I think that’s reasonable given the type of team we’re supposed to be.

But it’s hardly the end of the world right now.

Pouzar

frjohnk: Yup.

Put Kassian there.Anybody with a right shot.

If we are going to be competing for a playoff spot, a PP like this might be a big reason why we dont make it.

There is absolutely no plan on the current PP. It’s pass and hope. Teams know there is no shot coming so just be disciplined in your positioning and stay at home.

frjohnk

Pouzar: I’ve been screaming for a while now to try a power play that actually features a right shot shooting forward who can actually one time a puck from the high slot(hello Sleppy/JP).

Yup.

Put Kassian there. Anybody with a right shot.

If we are going to be competing for a playoff spot but lose out, a PP like this might be a big reason why we dont make it.

Pouzar

I’ve been screaming for a while now to try a power play that actually features a right shot shooting forward who can actually one time a puck from the high slot(hello Sleppy/JP). Ya think McSavior could saucer the odd dish from the half wall? Nah…..let’s pass it around the perimeter and set up a point shot muffin that misses the net 9.9 times outta 10 with no chance of a rebound. Sleppy/JP can shoot. Draw it up.

Pouzar

Lowetide:
48-17 in the Corsi’s tonight, I may have to write about a loss tomorrow but there will be no Edmund theme. This team has shown up on the coast.

9th in the NHL in SVA Corsi.

F^** YOU PD-Ho!!!!!!!!

PhrankLee

What’s wrong with this team is (insert sweeping generalization) and the influence of (insert botb).

As I see it they are still better than last year. They are, however, getting away from team play and puck support hence the give away machine.

They aren’t the fastest team but one of the fastest of the “heavy” teams. They cannot afford to stop moving their feet for a single second in the full 60 min. I cannot say I have seen a full 60 min out of this year’s club.

Clean up the give away action..(Klefbom, I’m talking to you) His give aways do more to deflate the team than any forward. He needs a night in the 3rd pair or the press box. I love him but this pairing look terrible together recently.

Fix the damn PP. When was the last time you saw a 2 on 0 against a PP? Last year, I suspect..

russ99

SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
russ99,

I’d highly recommend that anyone who watched the game and felt the Oilers were somehow dominated and or completely hopeless to go check out G’s OilersNerdAlert post for the game.

As LT says sometimes its possible to play well but get noticed for bad things. Score effects aside this wasn’t a bad game for the Oilers. There was another mental brainfart on that opening line change (and its really disheartening to see the same veterans at fault yet again), Talbot gave up a softie on the 2nd and the team couldn’t by a goal until 38:00 minutes in.

Not making excuses because they have to start converting or nothing else matters but I think the tide has turned when it comes to overall play (just like they started falling off during the Vancouver game that preluded the up and down road trip).

The slump will break soon here just need to hope it happens sooner rather than later

Trumped up fancies due to low danger shots from everywhere just doesn’t do it for me and isn’t substitute for battling to keep the puck and cycling to set up multiple good chances per o-zone sortie.

More luck on poor shots, more low danger than high danger shots and focusing on rush chances isn’t going to bring sustainable offense and take some pressure off the defense playing on the road vs. the big West teams, hard work will.

Oilers need to play like they did in Detroit, not like they did vs. Calgary.

BTW: Taylor Hall would have done the same thing, carry it in on the wall, try to do too much and turn it over and it goes the other way in odd man situation.

It’s way past time we start playing as a team.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Gret99zky,

11 straight and then 9 straight.

The Eakins years were bad and Taylor Hall was on the team at that time. Nobody wants to go back there

Also please stop with this and anyone else that keeps beating this dead horse, its ruining this site and completely obscuring the up and down but ultimately exciting start to this season. Thanks

Gret99zky

Many fans are probably missing Taylor Hall right about now.

Someone to share the load and take the heat off McDavid.

As the losses pile up the additions of Lucic and Larsson seem less than ideal.

But I bet Taylor Hall doesn’t miss one second of another “Oiler slump”. Not even a little bit.

jp

Centre of attention:
Gentlemen, the Oilers will have some nice pieces returning from injury soon (Davidson, Cagguila, Russel, etc) and may get a bit of a boost.

They have a lot of injuries, but not to really key players (no top 6 forwards or top 3 D). I feel like this is a reasonable/normal level of injury to expect. It could be a lot worse.

That said, I’m still optimistic about this team.

sliderule

The oilers seem to have a lot of bad line changes over the last few coaches.

Differen coaches same old.

When was the last time we scored on another teams bad change?

Did you see Gibson race out on an oiler PK clear and headman the puck to try to catch oilers on a change.

It seems to me that opposing coaches have noticed oilers dim witted changes and have their players look to take advantage

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

russ99,

I’d highly recommend that anyone who watched the game and felt the Oilers were somehow dominated and or completely hopeless to go check out G’s OilersNerdAlert post for the game.

As LT says sometimes its possible to play well but get noticed for bad things. Score effects aside this wasn’t a bad game for the Oilers. There was another mental brainfart on that opening line change (and its really disheartening to see the same veterans at fault yet again), Talbot gave up a softie on the 2nd and the team couldn’t by a goal until 38:00 minutes in.

Not making excuses because they have to start converting or nothing else matters but I think the tide has turned when it comes to overall play (just like they started falling off during the Vancouver game that preluded the up and down road trip).

The slump will break soon here just need to hope it happens sooner rather than later

russ99

I don’t understand it.

We brought in Chiarelli and McLellan and all the bigs to be able to compete in games like this, and nobody brings it.

What’s worse is the coaching got so drunk on the “Connor on the rush” success early on, so we’re not deployed or playing systems true to that vision.

Keep it simple, stop trying to rush and pass the puck into the net and work hard keeping the puck and out-hustle the opposition, like we did in the Detroit game.

Ryan

GMB3:
Ryan,

I have a tough time believing there was a trade request given his dissapointment at being traded.

Can I still blame management? Shoulda hired Mike Babcock.

Are you too young to have viewed the Usual Suspects?

:/.is my personal symbol for sarcasm alert.

I’ve spent nearly ten years of my life here with you scmucks. 🙂 Despite that, I’d have probably requested a trade at some point if I were Hall–if he didn’t, he’s a saint.

GMB3

Ryan,

I have a tough time believing there was a trade request given his dissapointment at being traded.

Can I still blame management? Shoulda hired Mike Babcock.

Ryan

Stelio Kontos: Hall would be first in bar visits right now.

The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing Oilers fans that he didn’t request a trade. :/

Gayfish

Ryan: This is all Taylor Hall’s fault.

He hoodwinked Chiarelli into thinking that Draisatl and Nuge could produce significant offense then managed to get himself traded thus leaving Chiarelli holding the bag. :/

Hall would be first in bar visits right now.

Ryan

Ice Sage:
Those first dozen games were a most enjoyable delusion and happy waste of time but, 97 or
No, It’s back to checking NHL.com at 10 PM and sighing.
Wake me when November ends

This is all Taylor Hall’s fault.

He hoodwinked Chiarelli into thinking that Draisatl and Nuge could produce significant offense then managed to get himself traded thus leaving Chiarelli holding the bag. :/

Ryan

Centre of attention:

It would be an excellent time for the GM to bring in some reinforcements.

How? 🙂

We have a paucity of liquid assets coupled with the reality that it’s too early in the season for teams to throw in the towel and move an appreciable asset capable of moving the needle.

Ice Sage

Those first dozen games were a most enjoyable delusion and happy waste of time but, 97 or
No, It’s back to checking NHL.com at 10 PM and sighing.
Wake me when November ends

Centre of attention

Dicky94:
Centre of attention,

Would like to see that Manson kid get on the bus with the Oilers.

You and me both. He’s a stud.

BONE207

Hi Gang…will try to evaluate positively so you’ll forgive me if I slide into negativity.
Problems I’ve seen over the past few games is that the Oilers:
Have trouble catching the puck. When they do, they have trouble shooting on net.
Connor should have a goal or an assist every shift. Thank you Baby Jesus.
Passing the puck around the perimeter on a power play won’t get you goals.
It’s like they are playing team handball and can’t shoot inside the 7m circle.
Icing on the 5v3 makes me puke.
Good news is that I don’t blame Ebs. He’s no different than anyone else. Mistakes galore.
In the 25-32-25 games, I guess we’ll put this in the scheduled loss. LA should be in the 32.
Why can’t we have nice things??

OmJo

Patrick Laine is fucking incredible.

OmJo

JDï™: I’m not sure I understand.

Well, they have nothing. No budding prospects, and the Sedins are getting older by the second. They’re going to be in our position by the end of the season.

€√¥£€^$

I posted this a few times before the first road trip.

I would like TMac to try this line-up

Maroon-McDavid-Puljujarvi
Pouliot-RNH-Eberle
Lucic-Draisaitl-Slepyshev
Pittlick-Letestu-Kassian

When healthy I’d like to see

Sekera-Larsson
Kelfbom-Davidson
Russell-Benning

Damn impotent PP. This team does not move forward, and I know I am not the only one who has been saying this, until there is a bonafide QB with a cannon on the point. Is Chia unwilling to make this move because he doesn’t want to give up the 1st round pick, which he knows will be between a 5-10th pick?

God love ya LT for all that you do, but I don’t have it in me anymore. I am going to take a break for a couple months, I will try my best anyway, for my sanity’s sake, lol. This team is looking like an accident that you can’t take your eyes away from unfortunately. To those of you who will continue to watch, I salute you. Cheers

JD_Wry

OmJo: I don’t want to kick them when they’re down.

I’m not sure I understand.

Dicky94

Centre of attention,

Would like to see that Manson kid get on the bus with the Oilers.

OmJo

Not to be that guy, but they spelled ‘integrity’ wrong.

OmJo

JDï™: You spelled ‘suck’ wrong.

I don’t want to kick them when they’re down. But they’re horrible, and they are only going to get worse as the season goes on.

Centre of attention

Gentlemen, the Oilers will have some nice pieces returning from injury soon (Davidson, Cagguila, Russel, etc) and may get a bit of a boost.

If they keep shooting like this and get a bounce, their confidence will go up and they won’t throw in the towel like they did in the 3rd tonight.

Still a young team with lots of new faces. Lots of growing to do. It would be an excellent time for the GM to bring in some reinforcements.

JD_Wry

OmJo:
The Canucks are BAD.

You spelled ‘suck’ wrong.

OmJo

Fowler has lowkey flipped off the camera, twice now. I see you bruh.

OmJo

Sens botched a 2-on-0 rush.

Zelepukin

well a positive is that it does seem like anyone can play with anyone up and down the lines. You could literally put all the names in a hat and then pick lines and you’d probably still get the same lack of scoring but lots of shots generated.

Pescador

SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
Pescador,

I mean there were chances, lots actually and then two bad goals (Talbot first and shitty PK next) and then only one goal on that flurry and the lack of goal scoring lately is worrying I agree but there was a good push by some guys.

Klefbom had a rough night IMO

Agree with this,
My point, I think, was more that tonight was a truer picture of what this team actually is. I’m really disappointed, sure overall the record is better but I was feeling optimistic that the team was better then it actually is. I got swept up in the party & just received the bill.

Confused

The third period was terrible!

We need a kick up the pants.

Did nothing in the third, ducks must be …….

OmJo

Brutal line change by Galchenyuk lol

OmJo

The Canucks are BAD.

Pescador

digger50:
Inexperience.

Oilers look pretty dam good, but young. Ducks on defence all the time. Older, calm, capitalize on any errors. The tide will turn.

I’ll take the Oil in a best of 7.

Years?

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

OmJo,

Agreed. He defers and everyone knows that. He’s tried to shoot a couple times but lots have been blocked.

The whole team needs an 8 goal game. I was hoping they cracked it in the late 2nd but nope. Lots of tight grips out there

JD_Wry

Oh damn. Too bad Joe.