WHERE THE BUFFALO ROAM

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers had a W in the bag, but could not hold on in Buffalo last night. I will credit a terrible penalty call against Adam Larsson, but a playoff team seals that victory and heads to Philadelphia with two points in the bank. Edmonton remains on pace for a playoff spot, but the theme for this season might be six months in a leaky boat. Oh, bother.

  • Todd McLellan: “Obviously the end is disappointing, but we were very sluggish & slow in the 1st period. That cost us.” 

UPSTATE, THEY’LL NEVER FIND HIM, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 2-0-2, goal differential +2
  • Oilers after 28, 2015: 11-15-2, goal differential -13
  • Oilers after 28, 2016: 14-10-4, goal differential +9

Edmonton is on pace for 94 points, with Connor McDavid serving as the heart of the order most every night. Cam Talbot has been a strong second in MVP voting this year, but his SP is down to .914—NHL average is .912. The club has several galling tendencies, one of which is leaving points on the board against lower echelon teams. Such was the case last night.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

oilers-d-dec-6

  • Numbers via NHL.com, NaturalStatTrick and HockeyStats.ca.
  • Mark Fayne played 4:34, was minus one on a play where he was a day late and a dollar short, and then left with injury.
  • Andrej Sekera was 17-7 in 13:54 with Matt Benning, that duo is effective. He was also 3-0 in 58 seconds with Adam Larsson, a pairing that makes sense. Finally, he was 4-2 in 2:07 with Kris Russell, meaning the Oilers were dandy with Sekera on the ice last night. He was 9-2 against the O’Reilly line, 6-2 in 2:39 against Eichel. Had an assist, three SOG. Andrej, you beautiful defenseman!
  • Matt Benning had three shots, four hits and one blocked shot. His number with Sekera is above, and he was 8-5 in 6:52 with Klefbom. Lots of good things, drew a penalty and was 14-6 in 9:45 when with the Nuge. 10-2 against Eichel, 11-5 against O’Reilly. What’s not to like?
  • Oscar Klefbom went 1-3 in 2:06 with Adam Larsson (I would love to see them reunited), 2-2 in 3:57 with the king of Fayne and 8-5 with Benning. Three shots, one blocked shot, 3-5 against O’Reilly and 5-1 against Eichel. Played a lot on special teams.
  • Kris Russell went 6-9 with Larsson in 14:21 (very low event for the minutes), 4-2 with Sekera and 1-0 with Benning. Went 1-3 in 4:04 against O’Reilly and 4-7 in 7:43 with Eichel. He did not have a good game by my eye, losing a reaction battle in the crease on the tying goal in the third and failing to execute in a few areas over the 60 minutes. He has had good games, this wasn’t one of them.
  • Adam Larsson took a tough penalty at the end of the game and received some rage online, but I think it was a shabby call. His numbers with other blue are above, solid with Sekera and the Klefbom pairing beckons. 0-2 against O’Reilly and 4-8 against Eichel. He defers to Russell on the passing and I don’t think it benefits the team. I think he might be a little injured, or sluggish, or both.
  • Cam Talbot was not strong.

KRIS RUSSELL’S SKILLS

  • Peter Chiarelli: “Because he puts them into position to shoot by giving them passes that lead to entries into the zone.” Source

I don’t agree with the quote, nor do the numbers, but do think there are defensemen on the team who do get the party started. Andrej Sekera, Oscar Klefbom, Matt Benning—who coincidentally had the most HDSCs last night—would seem to fit the bill more closely than Russell.

For me, the advantage Russell has over someone like Mark Fayne is his speed. Allows him to be aggressive at the blue line defending sorties and then scoot back to retrieve the puck and make a play. I do not see what Mr. Chiarelli sees and the math of the situation runs counter to the statement.

And that leads us to this question: What, exactly, is Peter Chiarelli looking at? Kris Russell is fast, he blocks shots and even when things go wrong he is fast and he blocks shots.

chia-trades

YOU BELIEVE IN WHAT YOU BELIEVE IN

You believe in what you believe in, and at some point that truth is baked in. Let me give you an example: Back in my radio advertising days, much of my competition came from newspapers. The world has changed now, but at that time, if I wanted a bigger piece of the ad buy, I would have to find a way to convince my client to buy a smaller ad in the local paper(s)—or to go B&W.

What I found was this: If my station advertised a remote and it did not go well, my radio station took the hit—even if newspaper was also involved. The client would blame me because, in his view, not enough people were listening to my station. However, if he advertised the same remote in the newspaper? In his view, that meant no one wanted to buy his product that day.

You see what happened there? Because he read the newspaper, his assumption was everyone read the newspaper, and simply passed on buying his product on that day. But radio? Oh, you don’t have enough listeners! I argued against that for 20 years, and had the facts to back it up (radio advertising is the most targeted and immediate avenue—spend money on radio!), but my client (some of them) saw the world just that way.

Peter Chiarelli sees the world through a lens that believes Kris Russell can do all kinds of things with or without the puck. He probably has his own internal math that backs it up. I don’t doubt his sincerity, any more than I doubted the sincerity of my client years ago. I do doubt his being correct, though, and it could take one astounding contract to find out who is right.

  • Note: I do not hate Kris Russell. I like him fine, just as I believe Mark Fayne is a good NHL defenseman. If you are coming here to troll about KR, move along please and thanks. This is a conversation about re-signing Russell, not about burying him as an NHL defensive option.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

oilers-f-dec-6

  • Before we get to the numbers, the Nuge line had no HDSCs either way. Mike Peca running those notes across the piano has value, but Edmonton needs RNH to contribute to 5×5 offense.
  • Also, McDavid and HDSCs go together like sunshine and good times. My goodness.
  • Maroon—Nuge—Eberle owned the possession at 5×5, and two men (Eberle goal, Nuge assist) posted crooked numbers. Eberle was the best player on the line in my opinion, he and Nuge seem to be coming on now. Is Maroon the right LW? Need more danger in their offensive game.
  • Lucic—McDavid—Draisaitl/Caggiula were the heart of the order last night, posting all kinds of offense (Lucic goal, McDavid and Caggiula two assists, Leon goal). Fifteen shots on goal, my goodness this line is a nightmare no matter who plays RW. HDSCs: 7-2! I am worried about Leon’s hand injury, that looked like a nasty slash. Milan lost his mark on the Gionta goal, don’t really know if he or Fayne was more to blame.
  • Kassian—Caggiula—Puljujarvi did not really have much impact. I saw Kassian take a penalty, get loose after a puck hit the Oilers bench (and was called). I saw JP good in one shift and that was about it.
  • Hendricks—Letestu—Pitlick didn’t get much done together, but the veterans and Leon had some good touches during the game. Hendricks was the culprit on another big goal against, the Oilers are losing games here and that would be important if the playoffs were the goal.
  • Frankly, the third and fourth line kind of disintegrated last night, as McLellan hit shuffle on the CD player.
  • Drake Caggiula is a fine young player.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi is going to need more playing time if the team plans on keeping him here.

simpson williams 1

Dillon Simpson photo by Mark Williams. All rights reserved

INJURIES

Mark Fayne left the game early, Leon Draisaitl played after a vicious slash, and we are here. The IR already contains Brandon Davidson (who could be back soon), Darnell Nurse, Andrew Ference, Eric Gryba and Iiro Pakarinen. We might see Dillon Simpson making his NHL debut tomorrow night in Philadelphia. If Leon can’t go Thursday, we should expect a recall (probably Lander) today.

KAILER YAMAMOTO

I promise not to write a 2017 Top 30 ranking post until January, but do have to start getting to know some of these young prospects. Today, I am looking at a cross between Jordan Eberle and Johnny Gaudreau—named Kailer Yamamoto. He comes from Spokane—that valley area is one of my favorite places—and he also plays for the Chiefs.

  • RW
  • 5.09, 160
  • Boxcars: 21, 17-14-31
  • NHLE: 82, 18-15-33
  • Hannah Stuart wrote an interesting article on Yamamoto here.
  • He has a diary up at NHL.com, fascinating read and a connection to Tyler Johnson.
  • Chris Dilks: Yamamoto doesn’t have the same size as some of the other top prospects, but it doesn’t matter because he’s just a true hockey player. He’s fast, but more important is how he uses that speed. He’s not afraid to go into tough areas to fight for pucks or angle off defenders to get himself into position to make a play. He’s a high-effort, high-energy player. Source

Greg Chase scored his first goal of the season last night against San Diego, and hopefully he can build on it and score more playing time. This is an important season for Chase, as he spent more of his first pro season with Norfolk of the ECHL. He scored well there (43, 18-19-37, NHLE 82, 8-8-16) and in an AHL audition (19, 1-6-7, NHLE 82, 2-12-14) in 2015-16. He is now 11, 1-1-2 this year and needs to get into the everyday lineup and move up that depth chart. The Condors have a condo of  AHL veterans and a bunch of college forwards, too. Hopefully Chase gets a chance, he is a Chiarelli type player and should be able to prove it with playing time. Ben Betker also scored his first AHL goal in an OT loss last night (like parent, like farm team).

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

It is a still fluid guest list for the Lowdown this morning, we get rolling at 10 on TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Breakdown of last night’s game and Oilers playoff chances.
  • Kirk Luedeke, Red Line Report. David Pastrnak has arrived.
  • Blue Jays, Oilers prospects, Raptors all possible just waiting on confirm.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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Atc-Nate

Eberle.

8 goals.

3 PPG.

3 ESG.

2 ENG.

Prior to this season, he had 5 empty netters from 2010-16.

At current rate, he will score 24 goals, but 6 will be empty netters. So. If we put in a lot of off season work, working on the one timer, we can get better at empty net scoring.

#sarcasm #trolling

(All stats courtesy of NHL.com)

JD_Wry

delooper: daily requirement

It’s like we’re caught in a loop. Any ideas?

delooper

Oilers fans seem to have a daily requirement of panic attack and fearmongering. The Oilers are a clearly better team than any Oilers team in the past decade. It’s good times, folks. Even good teams have problems. Lighten up and enjoy.

GMB3

Bruce Wayne:
VOR,

I kind of agree.Indeed, it is why I am still watching the games.But what are we going to say when the greatest player to ever play the game doesn’t win any Stanley Cups?

I think the grumpy cat meme would make a great avatar for you.

http://www.catster.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/grumpy-cat-meme-00.jpg

theres oil in virginia

JDï™: He’s essentially 32 right now.

“Essentially”? I’m sure you mean “literally”. Come on, old man, learn English.

Bag of Pucks

theDjdj:
Kris Russell presents a terrific opportunity for the analytics community. Oilers fans have always been thought leaders in hockey analytics. They now have an intimate perspective on a divisive player.

Kris Russell is the perfect embodiment of passing the eye test and failing the paper one.If the community can successfully quantify Russell’s impact, marrying the facts against how Russell plays, it will be a boon for mainstream adoption of analytical thinking.

We’ve had divisive players before. Gilbert, Petry, Gagner, Horcoff, Hemsky, etc. I’m not sure one side every really convinces the other. But the discussions do lead to a more nuanced appreciation of the player in question.

Fayne is the most recent example of a player that analytics loved (albeit at time of procurement, not so much with the Oil) and the eye guys have not.

Defensive Defenceman have also historically been players that do better by the eye test than analytics. Corsi like its Dmen frail and pass happy : ) Fortunately, the data is improving to better quantify the contributions of the stay at home type.

If there’s a way to solve the Russell conundrum, I think it has to start with his shot blocking. His strengths in that area are obviously skewing the data in some fashion that is unpleasing to the conventional analytic eye.

Personally I’m ok with him as a stopgap, but think the need is higher for a RH PP wizard longterm.

JD_Wry

jm363561: Dear Mr Tide

Alright – close it down, I think we’re done here!

👍

jm363561

Dear Mr Tide

I apologise for intruding in your internet blog site but I think I have to ask a favour from you. My husband is quietly sobbing in our bedroom and is clearly distressed about something to do with discussions about tiling our hall that are never going to end (which I don’t quite understand as all our condo floors are wood). I have not seen him so upset since he was shouting about how useless Eber – Lay is, which was upsetting for me at the time as I was hoping we might carpet our living room.

Where I think I need to ask your help is to reassure your friend Mr Wayne that my husband is not a violent man and I am fairly sure he will not pursue his vow to kill him – he hardly ever does anything like that – and that he should not worry unnecessarily about this threat. However, I think it would help if the hall discussions could be suspended for a while.

Once again I am sorry to intrude on your home improvement discussions.

Very truly yours

Mrs JM363561

Pink Socks

If in September I took out my crystal ball and saw 14-10-4 after 28 I would have been ecstatic. Whether it’s Hall or Russell, or a PP that goes through incompetence that makes my head explode, we won’t be watching the lottery this season. That alone is worth the price of admission.

Pink Socks

Lowetide: Oh for Christ sakes. Really? Good God people, you do know that there are limits to your wisdom, right? Holy shit.

Now that this has made my December, I’m not sure what to do with myself for the remainder of the month.

Thanks as always LT for your insightful writing that makes each morning and evening a blessing to read your art.

Doug McLachlan

Ok, I am really feeling for LT right now.

He has been dealing with the mess that has been the Oilers of the last decade, plodding along with this blog, and trying to find glimmers of light in a deep pool of blackness for what must seem like eons and now, with the blessings of the hockey gords, we get this kid gifted to us. Why are we all so glum?

Is the team in balance yet – hells no – but that Bettman point has us sitting in first spot in the Division on the 7th of December?!?! Enjoy it! If not for yourself than for LT.

I know there is every reason to fret that this house of cards falls before the playoff train leaves the station – things are that tight – but we have more ROWs than everyone in the West not named Chicago, St. Louis and San Jose. The homeside is sporting a division-leading +9 goal differential. Oh, and we have McWooooot. Revel in our time people.

Bag of Pucks

Bruce Wayne: It is a controversy because his cheerleaders in the media keep talking about how good he is.One of the main purposes of so-called analytics is to provide an antidote to the vapidity of the people who cover the team in the media.Indeed, it is the reason “analytics” exists in the first place.If the people who covered sports provided insightful commentary no one would have ever bothered to find a better way of understanding in the first place.They are right to view it is an attack.It is one.

That said, while Chiarelli obviously doesn’t’ know what he is talking about, I also don’t think he really believes Russell is worth 4 x 4 or something absurd like that.In any case no one is arguing with Chiarelli here, he’s not the target, Spector (and his ilk) and the fanbase of oilersnation is the target.

Jim Corsi was frustrated with sportswriters? I did not know that.

Cassandra

theDjdj:
Kris Russell presents a terrific opportunity for the analytics community. Oilers fans have always been thought leaders in hockey analytics. They now have an intimate perspective on a divisive player.

Kris Russell is the perfect embodiment of passing the eye test and failing the paper one.If the community can successfully quantify Russell’s impact, marrying the facts against how Russell plays, it will be a boon for mainstream adoption of analytical thinking.

This is a classic example of question begging. You have presumed your own conclusion.

In any case the point of thinking (i.e. analysis) is not to confirm your prejudices (i.e. the eye test).

One of the funniest things about the Russell saga is that people seem to believe that by the eyes he is limiting scoring chances and this “disproves” Corsi/fenwick, when a simple counting of scoring chances, which is just counting, proves definitively that people are either not seeing, or not remembering, what is right in front of their eyes.

classict

theDjdj:
Kris Russell presents a terrific opportunity for the analytics community. Oilers fans have always been thought leaders in hockey analytics. They now have an intimate perspective on a divisive player.

Kris Russell is the perfect embodiment of passing the eye test and failing the paper one.If the community can successfully quantify Russell’s impact, marrying the facts against how Russell plays, it will be a boon for mainstream adoption of analytical thinking.

I think Kris Russel was passing the eye test for his first ~10 games, coincidentally he was also decent by the numbers (what are the odds). He kept looking ok for a while after the numbers started dipping but I’ve seen him real bad the last few games. I don’t know what anyone who says he’s had a good last 3 games is watching.

Chachi

su_dhillon: Crap, not sure why my brain had him at 31, thx for correcting.

As JDI said, getting hit by as many shots as Russell throws himself in front of is likely to prematurely age a player.

classict

leadfarmer:
Has a one year signing ever caused such controversy.People make it sound like Russell was traded for Hall and then given a 10 mil a year contract.

It was a good signing.Provided a guy that can fill in on his off side for a year providing some shelter so Benning didn’t get thrown into the deep end and Gryba wasn’t playing each game.If we fall out of the playoff race you can flip him for a pick

The controversy becomes a little more prominent when the coach decides a fill in 4-6 D should be playing top pairing minutes in place of a measurably better defenceman. It’s cost the Oilers points already, it’s going to cost them more points. Borderline playoff teams can’t afford to give up free points.

Played like a depth signing though, I agree, this team is better with him than without.

theDjdj

Kris Russell presents a terrific opportunity for the analytics community. Oilers fans have always been thought leaders in hockey analytics. They now have an intimate perspective on a divisive player.

Kris Russell is the perfect embodiment of passing the eye test and failing the paper one.
If the community can successfully quantify Russell’s impact, marrying the facts against how Russell plays, it will be a boon for mainstream adoption of analytical thinking.

treevojo

Lowetide: Oh for Christ sakes. Really? Good God people, you do know that there are limits to your wisdom, right? Holy shit.

I knew there was more then one of him!

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Lowetide,

I spit water all over the floor after reading this in laughter.

Two a day posts on non-game days and putting up with the most bi-polar fan/commentary-base you ever did see (myself included no question).

Thanks LT you’re the best

sliderule

VOR:
I don’t mean this as a swipe at any individual poster here.

Lately, reading the comments on LT’s posts I have been reminded of my friend Harold. Harold was a super fan. He attended every Edmonton Eskmos home games for well over fifty years. The Eskimos actually honoured him at half time of a game the year he hit fifty years. It was a classy gesture by a classy organization.

Harold believed you had to treat winning and losing just the same. He sure saw his share of horrible teams and lots of losing. Occasionally the Eskimos would win more than they lost. They even won the odd Grey Cup. But Harold loved his Eskimos win or lose.

Then one summer day Harold phoned me up. He was super excited.

Harold you see had been invited to take in Eskimos training camp. One of the perks of being a super fan. So he had the opportunity to be there when everything changed. And he knew enough about football to recognize the moment. I’ll never forget what he said to me.

“Most fans go their entire lives and never get to see greatness. Today I saw greatness. This kid is way too good for Edmonton but I am going to enjoy every second he’s here.” And believe me Harold did just that.

The kid was of course Warren Moon and what followed is five consecutive Grey Cups. I got to see it happen as the wildly eccentric veteran quarterback mentored the kid and then stepped aside. I got to see Moon be good, then dominant, then great. It was an amazing experience but maybe the best part was sharing it with Harold.

Watching Harold floating on clouds that entire time taught me a lot about how to be an Oilers fan and how to appreciate Wayne Gretzky. I never forgot I was being given a chance many fans go their entire lives and never have. I was watching greatness. I tried to burn every frame, every second into my memory because I knew I’d never have the chance again, not to see such a unique, generational talent come of age.

The thing was, I was wrong. One day I went to an exhibition game and watched Connor McDavid play his first exhibition game. It is all happening again and I am back trying to store every astonishing moment in my memory.

Those of you who are too young to have grown up with Moon and Gretzky in the City of Champions need to understand. For you as hockey fan this may be as good as it gets, your one and only chance to see greatness up close in real time. Seize the day.

The next time you are tempted to whine and complain on this or some other blog consider the words of my friend Harold, “we are blessed to see greatness. ”

My buddy and I had a season tickets both with oilers and Esks during glory years.

He would always say to me “I don’t think fans appreciate what we are seeing out there”

Twenty plus years have passed and I thought that I would never see anything like Moon and the whole oilers glory years team.

Watching Connor this year I can say that he is better than any of the stars we had back then and I am not sure that just like then that the fans are appreciating it.

My advice just enjoy every moment as I don’t think it will ever be as good for an oiler fan as watching Connor.

JD_Wry

Bruce Wayne: But what are we going to say when the greatest player to ever play the game doesn’t win any Stanley Cups?

That at least we had the team’s owner trolling us in the hockey blogs.

I’m sorry that the hockey world pressured you to jettison your old buddies from their retirement jobs, with the selection responsibility of McDavid.

su_dhillon

OmJo:
su_dhillon,

On top ofc that, trading one of Klefbom, Nurse or Sekera to make room for Russell is just as bad. We have a plethora of LDs who can replace him by the trade deadline.

Agreed, I wouldn’t do it and would much rather use Davidson in that slot but if they did deal one and replace with Russell, at least you could make the case there is a spot where he could fit.

Cassandra

VOR,

I kind of agree. Indeed, it is why I am still watching the games. But what are we going to say when the greatest player to ever play the game doesn’t win any Stanley Cups?

Cassandra

leadfarmer:
Has a one year signing ever caused such controversy.People make it sound like Russell was traded for Hall and then given a 10 mil a year contract.

It was a good signing.Provided a guy that can fill in on his off side for a year providing some shelter so Benning didn’t get thrown into the deep end and Gryba wasn’t playing each game.If we fall out of the playoff race you can flip him for a pick

It is a controversy because his cheerleaders in the media keep talking about how good he is. One of the main purposes of so-called analytics is to provide an antidote to the vapidity of the people who cover the team in the media. Indeed, it is the reason “analytics” exists in the first place. If the people who covered sports provided insightful commentary no one would have ever bothered to find a better way of understanding in the first place. They are right to view it is an attack. It is one.

That said, while Chiarelli obviously doesn’t’ know what he is talking about, I also don’t think he really believes Russell is worth 4 x 4 or something absurd like that. In any case no one is arguing with Chiarelli here, he’s not the target, Spector (and his ilk) and the fanbase of oilersnation is the target.

VOR

I don’t mean this as a swipe at any individual poster here.

Lately, reading the comments on LT’s posts I have been reminded of my friend Harold. Harold was a super fan. He attended every Edmonton Eskmos home games for well over fifty years. The Eskimos actually honoured him at half time of a game the year he hit fifty years. It was a classy gesture by a classy organization.

Harold believed you had to treat winning and losing just the same. He sure saw his share of horrible teams and lots of losing. Occasionally the Eskimos would win more than they lost. They even won the odd Grey Cup. But Harold loved his Eskimos win or lose.

Then one summer day Harold phoned me up. He was super excited.

Harold you see had been invited to take in Eskimos training camp. One of the perks of being a super fan. So he had the opportunity to be there when everything changed. And he knew enough about football to recognize the moment. I’ll never forget what he said to me.

“Most fans go their entire lives and never get to see greatness. Today I saw greatness. This kid is way too good for Edmonton but I am going to enjoy every second he’s here.” And believe me Harold did just that.

The kid was of course Warren Moon and what followed is five consecutive Grey Cups. I got to see it happen as the wildly eccentric veteran quarterback mentored the kid and then stepped aside. I got to see Moon be good, then dominant, then great. It was an amazing experience but maybe the best part was sharing it with Harold.

Watching Harold floating on clouds that entire time taught me a lot about how to be an Oilers fan and how to appreciate Wayne Gretzky. I never forgot I was being given a chance many fans go their entire lives and never have. I was watching greatness. I tried to burn every frame, every second into my memory because I knew I’d never have the chance again, not to see such a unique, generational talent come of age.

The thing was, I was wrong. One day I went to an exhibition game and watched Connor McDavid play his first exhibition game. It is all happening again and I am back trying to store every astonishing moment in my memory.

Those of you who are too young to have grown up with Moon and Gretzky in the City of Champions need to understand. For you as hockey fan this may be as good as it gets, your one and only chance to see greatness up close in real time. Seize the day.

The next time you are tempted to whine and complain on this or some other blog consider the words of my friend Harold, “we are blessed to see greatness. “

Side

Lowetide:
Musil recalled. Do you want the No. 15 prospect at 5pm, or an item on Musil?

Musil item, imo!

kinger_OIL

Lowetide:
Musil recalled. Do you want the No. 15 prospect at 5pm, or an item on Musil?

– Wasn’t Simpson recalled? So both Musil and Simpson up: nice! do Musil please!

JD_Wry

Lowetide: No. 15 prospect at 5pm, or an item on Musil?

You mean #15 isn’t Musil?

I’ll take door number 15, because it will probably be Simpson who gets into the lineup first.

Timeisnow

–hudson–:
su_dhillon,

All good questions!

I hope it’s Chiarelli defending the signing, trying to pump his trade value, or telling the other GM’s he’s not desperate for a RHD at premium value (even though he should be).

I’m hoping it’s not Chiarelli convincing himself Russell is better than he is.

You know, it seems rather funny that a gm is so high on a player when he had all off season to sign him and didn’t. Being so high on this player he waited to sign him what 2-3 days before the season started? I think it’s better to pump up a player when you can, rather than sewer the player. Kind of a strange concept for these Oilers if that’s what’s happening. I’m with you, I hope that’s what is going on

JD_Wry

su_dhillon: Crap, not sure why my brain had him at 31, thx for correcting.

Smaller shot-blocking defender who hits two weight classes above his mass?

He’s essentially 32 right now.

su_dhillon

Chachi: Other than the fact that Russell is 29 years old, not 32, everything about this post is exactly right.

Crap, not sure why my brain had him at 31, thx for correcting.

treevojo

OmJo:
leadfarmer,

The problem isn’t the signing. The problem is the blind praise the organisation and it’s mouth pieces in the media are giving him, with talks of that “one year signing” becoming longer.

Plus he took Halls number. Not a good first impression.

Don’t forget about that asshole Drake Caggulia.

The nerve it must take to don Charles Linglet’s #

thebiggestmanintheworld

Why would he not spin this to make Russell look good?

See what he got last year at the deadline?

Or maybe he’s totally inept and already has the contract written up…

Interesting to see what happens when Davidson gets back…

JD_Wry

Coach Todd splains the timeout and other things today:

https://www.nhl.com/oilers/video/practice-raw–todd-mclellan/t-281751750/c-47100103

OmJo

JDï™: That was a Lowe blow alright.

Putting Principe to shame last night and this afternoon haha

--hudson--

Mattaklap:
I’m late here (perils of living the PST and Island Time) but was wondering if anyone else checked out Wheatnoil’s twitter last night, especially regarding data on zone exits. I don’t have time to link anything (see above), but wanted to say that the part I liked most was the comparison of how different defenders clear the zone (passing skating chipping). I’m not very smart, but it looked useful.

Good conversation today, all. I commend you.

I saw them, I hesitate to draw too much meaning from them, since I know a D passing to a forward in the neutral zone can have many different results, especially if one is named Joffrey Lupul and the other is Connor McDavid. It’s why I asked earlier. (And knowing this site it was dissected 8 years ago and everyone has moved on already 🙂 )

JD_Wry

OmJo: Plus he took Halls number.

That was a Lowe blow alright.

Mattaklap

I’m late here (perils of living the PST and Island Time) but was wondering if anyone else checked out Wheatnoil’s twitter last night, especially regarding data on zone exits. I don’t have time to link anything (see above), but wanted to say that the part I liked most was the comparison of how different defenders clear the zone (passing skating chipping). I’m not very smart, but it looked useful, especially to those that love dreamy eyes and don’t love shot blocks.

Good conversation today, all. I commend you.

OmJo

leadfarmer,

The problem isn’t the signing. The problem is the blind praise the organisation and it’s mouth pieces in the media are giving him, with talks of that “one year signing” becoming longer.

Plus he took Halls number. Not a good first impression.

OmJo

meanashell11:
Timeisnow,

I was just going off of what the commentators said as they finished the time out??

Yup, I heard them mention it too but TMac changed it up.

leadfarmer

Has a one year signing ever caused such controversy. People make it sound like Russell was traded for Hall and then given a 10 mil a year contract.

It was a good signing. Provided a guy that can fill in on his off side for a year providing some shelter so Benning didn’t get thrown into the deep end and Gryba wasn’t playing each game. If we fall out of the playoff race you can flip him for a pick

OmJo

Ribs:
“You guys are nuts. Kris Russel is the best defenceman the NHL has ever seen. He’s gold! Every time he touches the puck his team scores ten goals. He’s second in zone entries and first in every teammate’s heart. He once stopped a bus from running over my dog by throwing out a shin pad. He’s everything you could ever ask for in a defenceman and possibly the very best human alive today! Of course he’s worth your first rounder at the deadline, fellow NHL GM!”

*Chia Troll Face*

He’s second in zone entries and first in every teammate’s heart.

This line ?

--hudson--

su_dhillon,

All good questions!

I hope it’s Chiarelli defending the signing, trying to pump his trade value, or telling the other GM’s he’s not desperate for a RHD at premium value (even though he should be).

I’m hoping it’s not Chiarelli convincing himself Russell is better than he is.

Bag of Pucks

su_dhillon:
Even if you see Russell good or have some numbers that show him as a top 4 player, in terms of asset allocation how does it make sense to sign him long term?

You have 3 LD’s signed long term, Klef, Sekera and Nurse. You have a young cheap LD in Davidson signed for next year. You have needs at RD at 5×5 and on PP. Russell is not a good long term option for either of those holes.

Why would you allocate money beyond this season on a 32 year old LD that doesn’t help you on PP when you have 4 LD’s already on roster?

Beyond the GM’s understanding of analytics, who he sees good or doesn’t,what he should see is the best way to allocate money on defense. You have X amount of dollars to allocate and you have clear holes, why would you allocate more dollars on a player that doesn’t fill those holes andduplicates players you already have signed?

Unless you are moving one of Nurse, Sekera or Klefbom there is no reason to sign Russel over a right shooting defenseman or if you do end up with aLS dman, they have to be a first PP player. Russell should be what he was this summer, a break in case of emergency signing, that is the only reason to sign him.

I think Chiarelli floating the possibility of a new contract and having initial talks along those lines keeps the player motivated and performing in the here and now too. Doesn’t mean it’s going to happen.

OmJo

su_dhillon,

On top ofc that, trading one of Klefbom, Nurse or Sekera to make room for Russell is just as bad. We have a plethora of LDs who can replace him by the trade deadline.

--hudson--

One question I have on zone exits/corsi/fancystats – what influence does the pass recipient have on the stats?

– Like the play where Russell was trying to pass to Drake Caggiula but he’s not in position and the puck ends up hitting him in the butt creating a 2 on 1 for the Sabres.
– Maybe this is why Larson is an off the glass and out player more often? The forwards are going for the stretch pass per their senses or the coaching staff direction.
– And we all know the Connor McDavid influence, the most generic pass to him leads to an easy zone exit and often a shot on goal.

Anyway, just curious, how you would suss out those stats. Is there a way to normalize Russell’s performance in his zone exits with say Klefbomb, to the same pass recipient with the same quality of opposition? Or would it all be rolled into corsi/fenwick/xGF and using WOWY?

Chachi

su_dhillon:
Even if you see Russell good or have some numbers that show him as a top 4 player, in terms of asset allocation how does it make sense to sign him long term?

You have 3 LD’s signed long term, Klef, Sekera and Nurse. You have a young cheap LD in Davidson signed for next year. You have needs at RD at 5×5 and on PP. Russell is not a good long term option for either of those holes.

Why would you allocate money beyond this season on a 32 year old LD that doesn’t help you on PP when you have 4 LD’s already on roster?

Beyond the GM’s understanding of analytics, who he sees good or doesn’t,what he should see is the best way to allocate money on defense. You have X amount of dollars to allocate and you have clear holes, why would you allocate more dollars on a player that doesn’t fill those holes andduplicates players you already have signed?

Unless you are moving one of Nurse, Sekera or Klefbom there is no reason to sign Russel over a right shooting defenseman or if you do end up with aLS dman, they have to be a first PP player. Russell should be what he was this summer, a break in case of emergency signing, that is the only reason to sign him.

Other than the fact that Russell is 29 years old, not 32, everything about this post is exactly right.