G31 2016-17 JETS AT OILERS

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers have a big game tonight  against the Winnipeg Jets. After what can only be described as a weird week (they were ahead late in Buffalo, tied late in Philly, and took Minny to a shootout), a win this evening would mean a 1-1-2 week. Not ideal, but effective in the land of the extra point.

SUNDAY MORNING COMING DOWN, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 2-1-3, goal differential +1
  • Oilers after 30, 2015: 13-15-2, goal differential -10
  • Oilers after 30, 2016: 14-11-5, goal differential +8

G30 a year ago saw Edmonton win again—this was a high water mark last season—and get so close to a .500 record (14-15-2). After tonight (a year ago), Edmonton would go 17-28-6 to end the year—to finish 31-43-8 over 82 games. Can Edmonton beat that run from last season? If they lost tonight, the 14-12-5 record would be disturbingly close to 2015-16—despite the gorgeous October start. This is us, and I don’t think us means playoffs, not this year, not this time. Calgary has balance, so does California. I could say baby baby baby ’til my tongue spirals out of my head, and nothing will change about this equation. The McDavid is the biggest trump card in Christendom, but the jacks and kings, and the sevens and nines, just don’t add up this time. Balance. Damnable word. I will be thrilled to be wrong this time, but the guess here is that the build falls shy in 2016-17.

DEFENSE, 2016-17

oilers-blue-dec-10

  • The Oilers possession numbers are good this season (overall at 5×5 the team is 51.9 percent, No. 10 in the entire NHL).
  • The third-pairing chaps (Benning, Gryba, Nurse) have done very well, some even stepping up at times and performing near par.
  • The big three of Klefbom, Sekera and Larsson are also above 50 percent Corsi 5×5, and that is a nice change of pace after all these years. Most observers feel Andrej Sekera has been the best defender so far, and I would agree.
  • The Swedish pairing of Klefbom—Larsson started well, developed a hitch, and we are here. I still think this is the best bet for top pairing.
  • Brandon Davidson has to be close to returning, don’t know how I feel about him returning for his first game against the Dustin Byfuglien fellow. That man is the perfect villain, and seems to enjoy his role too well.
  • If you are wondering about Quality of Competition, the WoodMoney folks are going to blow your mind when they go public. As a tease, I will list minutes against ‘elites’ this season, which, for me, is the best test of first-pairing minutes. The rubber hits the road when the coach feels a sphincter tightening.

BLUE VERSUS ELITES, BY MINUTES

  1. Adam Larsson 175:25 (44.8 Corsi for 5×5 percentage)
  2. Andrej Sekera 172:39 (48.3 Corsi for 5×5 percentage)
  3. Oscar Klefbom, 155:38 (45.6 Corsi for 5×5 percentage)
  4. Kris Russell 137:09 (44.4 Corsi for 5×5 percentage)
  5. Darnell Nurse 97:41 (51.7 Corsi for 5×5 percentage)
  6. Matt Benning 90:05 (57.1 Corsi for 5×5 percentage)

Now, a couple of things. Both G and WG have kindly passed along a few things, but I am using them sparingly because this is their work, their property. I send it to you as a snap shot, a glimpse, into what we will be getting soon from these fellows. Needless to say, this could be as mind bending as the first Jimi Hendrix album when it finally arrives.

Second. Matt Benning, according to the WoodMoney, is flat out brilliant as a rookie. This is amazing. If it continues, we can probably begin talking about the big defensive move of summer being the signing of a college free agent. Early days, don’t make a fuss, don’t want to scare it away.

FORWARDS, 2016-17

oilers-forwards-dec-12

  • The possession numbers are important for forwards, but for me the real fuel for these men is 5×5/60. If you can score there, you have a future.
  • I also value highly the scoring chance metric, especially the individual (via Corsica hockey in this case).
  • Connor McDavid is stone alone, out among the stars. His brilliance remains shocking, you can go years without finding this kind of gap between one player and the rest of the field. Insane.
  • Patrick Maroon is in a quiet period in goals, but his scoring chances remain high and he does a lot of little things well.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who remains No. 1 C against elite competition (but it is close, McDavid behind by about seven minutes), has a nice individual scoring chance number. That shooting percentage has to come back sooner or later.
  • Milan Lucic is a little low in shooting percentage as well, that may turn north at some point this year. He is also shooting more, on pace for 205 shots—that would easily be a career high.
  • Benoit Pouliot is starting to show some signs—that is a major positive for this team.
  • Anton Slepyshev should play more. Despite the numbers here, he has shown some good things, especially when playing with skill.

WHL

Three Oilers prospects in the WHL are performing very well of late—specifically Caleb Jones of the Portland Winterhawks. With an assist last night, Jones is now 30gp, 3-26-29. With two assists last night, Tyler Benson is 27gp, 9-21-30. With an assist last night, Bear is now 28gp, 10-16-26. Only Jones is heading to a WJ camp (Team USA) but there are good things happening with this trio of Oilers prospects.

QUESTION

I have been asking folks lately a question that has been getting a surprising answer, thought I would share. The question came from an item I am/was preparing on Peter Chiarelli and his time as general manager in Boston and Edmonton. The question was this: What current NHL GM do you consider to be No. 1 at this time?

So far, the answers have been surrounded by phrases like ‘no one impresses me’ and ‘in a pinch, I would name’ and I find that interesting. If we are going to drill down on this, and expose Peter Chiarelli as the enemy within (this is basically going on daily on twitter), then who do we hold up as the best option? I am willing to do the work, Chiarelli’s track record is familiar to me. So, let’s do this together. Name your top GM, and I will do the work.

PLAYOFFS?

Each time I write about the Oilers not being a playoff team, I get an email from the same person (some folks prefer to email me, as opposed to post, and this is fine). Often, this individual will ask if Kris Russell being signed changes things, or if the emergence of Matt Benning changes things.

The answer is yes and no. I do understand the idea behind giving Matt Benning at bats, or using Kris Russell out of position because he is an NHL veteran. I get it. However, one of the things a contending team does is limit the number of auditions taking place at one time. If you look at the Oilers situation currently, the auditions are going on at pretty much every position. Some of this is due to injury, and some of this (Benning, Caggiula) is working pretty damned well.

Still, NHL teams who make the playoffs usually limit their rookies to the ones who can handle the job assigned. I won’t bother to list the names of Oilers roster rookies who may not be making the grade, but am quite certain the total is higher than it should be. Matt Tkachuk may not have a better future than Jesse Puljujarvi, but he is a more productive rookie.

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russ99

OF17,

I think coaching plays a part as well. Earlier in the year we made a lot better and smarter plays with the puck in the defensive zone, and very few chips up the boards or off the glass, but lately its been all about making the safer play.

Also, with his workload and play vs. the tougher opposition, he’s needed more as a crease clearer than as a breakout passer, so that also plays a factor. Nobody is a 100% d-zone focused crease clearer or a 100% puck mover, there’s percentages of each in each player, so the coaching and the opposition play a part as to what percentage a player is day to day.

TO10801

OF17,

I think players take a little while to get comfortable with new teammates, a new city and all that stuff. I expect Larsson and Klefbom will be a bona fide top pairing by the end of the year. Whether we make the playoffs probably depends on it.

OF17

One thing to keep in mind is that Larsson hasn’t looked as good in Edmonton so far as he did in New Jersey. He’s not using his passing like he did last year, which is one of his biggest strengths. He’ll use it occasionally here, and it’s effective, but most of the time you see him deferring to his partner or chipping it off the glass. Given his age, it’s unlikely his play has dropped off. More likely is that he isn’t fully comfortable yet, and in his discomfort, he’s erring too far on the side of defensive positioning and taking away a lot of his transition potential. I hope the coaching staff is pulling some Ralph Krueger pixie dust from the safe to convince Larsson he’s a puck moving defenseman, because when he tries to be, he actually is. He needs to reestablish the confidence to use it though.

GMB3

Does anyone else find BP extremely frustrating? He has so many of the skills needed to be an impact player, yet he isn’t consistently.

Gsweeney11

Gordies Elbow,

Not buying the pp toi argument. 50 sec of young Benning’s 1:08 came at the end AFTER goalie was pulled and paired with Klefbom. To compare, Russell had 1:12 PP in the game, all on the shift prior to this, paired with his regular partner in Sekera.

Seems that McClellan either trusted Benning more than Larsson in the final minute to defend (Nice trade Chia) or Larsson is battling injury.

Gordies Elbow

Gsweeney11,

Larsson played 19:30, with 1:08 of that being PK time.
Benning played 16:48, with 1:08 of that being PP time, no PK time.
Simpson played 13:50, with no special teams time.

Looked like he was rolling the defenders near the end, and not killing penalties.

Gsweeney11

Anyone else surprised that it was 83-77 out there at the end instead of 6?

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

I thought Pouliot had a strong game. Noticed him all over the puck, in a good way for once.

Klima's_Bucket

GMB3,

Forget fair, I still think you’re offside. Gotta keep that back foot on the ice dammit.

hags9k

Shouldn’t our man Connor have gotten another apple on the Letestu/Laine weirdness?

Or is this deemed unassisted because of flagrant own goal?

I’m not too concerned about Art Ross, but would like LT’s 82gp number to swell.

Always a good 2 pts when you leapfrog the godless flames!

JD_Wry

Frank the dog: I they just f*cked themselves.

Excellent.

tents fingers

D

GMB3: To be fair, that was 6 years before I was born… so I never actually saw it happen.

That is fair.

LostBoy

Laine’s miscue was bad, but I was joking above. When you break down the replay from behind the net frame by frame, he was focused totally on the puck, didn’t look at the net at all. He was obviously trying to clear it to the left of Hellebuyck. He, uh, missed.

I’ll take it!

GMB3

D: The worst?What about 1986?

To be fair, that was 6 years before I was born… so I never actually saw it happen.

GMB3

Frank the dog: I expect things may get better if Gryba and Davey get back in the lineup this week. Except for the refereeing.

I don’t see Gryba being an improvement over Benning.

D

GMB3:
Honestly that’s the worst own goal I’ve ever seen in the NHL

The worst? What about 1986?

Gerta Rauss

GMB3:
Honestly that’s the worst own goal I’ve ever seen in the NHL

Where were you in the spring of ’86..?

GMB3

Honestly that’s the worst own goal I’ve ever seen in the NHL

Frank the dog

jm363561:
Finally, we got a few breaks and the win. It seems just about every game is close and the winning team is the one that gets a bit more puck luck. One third of the season gone and we deserve to be in the play off race. Not sure my nerves can stand another four months of this though. Oh for the good old days when we were discussing summer trades, draft selections and lottery percentages in December.

Dillon Simpson did okay.

I expect things may get better if Gryba and Davey get back in the lineup this week. Except for the refereeing.

Professor Q

2 missed goals at the last milliseconds for McDavid. Damn it.

Frank the dog

JDï™:
Fuck the jets.

I they just f*cked themselves.

jm363561

Finally, we got a few breaks and the win. It seems just about every game is close and the winning team is the one that gets a bit more puck luck. One third of the season gone and we deserve to be in the play off race. Not sure my nerves can stand another four months of this though. Oh for the good old days when we were discussing summer trades, draft selections and lottery percentages in December.

Dillon Simpson did okay.

Todd Macallan

Encouraging game in many respects, but especially for Oscar and Nuge, on both sides of the puck.

JD_Wry

Fuck the jets.

Bank Shot

Younger Oil:
They should have not been trying to rush the shot while the goalie was in net.

There will always be an open man, they should have been able to just pass around for the rest of the game.

Not smart.

No kidding. I think it was Sekera too with a pretty bad angle shot. Just pass around and tire out the PKers was the right move.

JD_Wry

JDï™,

I failed.

russ99

The Trade Guy: I think his offensive instincts took hold. You’re going to the net and bang home the rebound. Then you go “oh shit.” i’ve seen it in basketball where guys go up for the board and tip it in and then go “oh shit wrong net.”

I think he was trying to clear, but the puck on his stick in that position was too familiar not to shoot how he did.

Scungilli Slushy

Lloyd B.:
Rob Brown just said on CHED he thinks Laine shot that into the net trying to score. WTF?Claims he has reviewed the tape and has never seen anything like it in his 30-40 years in the game. Can’t see the game but how is that possible?

He forgot where he was, and it was a perfect shot for a rebound, his scorer’s brain took over and he buried it. Instinct. Sort of like when kids forget which way the other team’s net is and everyone is yelling to them.

Edit – Trade Guy got it

Gerta Rauss

It wasn’t pretty but I’ll take it

D

Would be nice if the Oil could play the Jets 82 times this year.

jzed

Stinkin

The Trade Guy

Lloyd B.:
Rob Brown just said on CHED he thinks Laine shot that into the net trying to score. WTF?Claims he has reviewed the tape and has never seen anything like it in his 30-40 years in the game. Can’t see the game but how is that possible?

I think his offensive instincts took hold. You’re going to the net and bang home the rebound. Then you go “oh shit.” i’ve seen it in basketball where guys go up for the board and tip it in and then go “oh shit wrong net.”

Younger Oil

McDavid isn’t good at this whole buzzer beater thing.

jzed

He don’t need no sinkin empty netter to win the Art Ross

russ99

Connor got hosed. But I’ll take the win.

JD_Wry

McDavid with the empty net. Nice to see he got a goal.

The Trade Guy

Man just give the guy the goal. Skunked twice by the clock.

StixMalone

I will sleep better tonight….

Younger Oil

They should have not been trying to rush the shot while the goalie was in net.

There will always be an open man, they should have been able to just pass around for the rest of the game.

Not smart.

flyfish1168

Thank you Patrick

OmJo

OmJo:
I didn’t jynx this

See ?

jzed

So much for the warm up practice

OmJo

I didn’t jynx this ?

Lloyd B.

Rob Brown just said on CHED he thinks Laine shot that into the net trying to score. WTF? Claims he has reviewed the tape and has never seen anything like it in his 30-40 years in the game. Can’t see the game but how is that possible?

JD_Wry

OmJo:
Too many men pretty much seals it. Nice to get a win in this one.

Thanks for the jynx.

jzed

If we give up a shorty, I will have a stroke, my life is in your hands McD

BeerMe

OmJo:
Too many men pretty much seals it. Nice to get a win in this one.

Hah, we’ll see

russ99

Can’t touch the puck, or they’ll call that all day long.

OmJo

Too many men pretty much seals it. Nice to get a win in this one.

OmJo

Mark Letestu might be an alien.