DEAR LANDLORD

by Lowetide

The first Edmonton Oilers team—1979-80—featured 16 wingers, only one of those men drafted by the NHL team. Stray cats mostly, but that group scored enough and checked enough for the club to make the second season. Blair MacDonald and Brett Callighen were Gretzky’s linemates that season, they were a solid line—MacDonald scored 46 goals, we all thought he was a perfect fit. Dave Hunter and Dave Lumley were the checkers and gritty skilled men, Hunter was solid on the PK and Lumley got some PP time.  Mark Messier and Cam Connor were also tough wingers, the rookie Messier got time in all three disciplines. Connor may have been the most famous of Edmonton’s wingers that season, he was a former Montreal Canadiens forward. Bobby Schmautz was famous, Don Murdoch too, and there was a time that season when both men looked like they might be here a long time. Dave Semenko was on that team, he was a giant then as now. Bill Flett was a personal favorite, but he was too old and slow to stay. Peter Driscoll and Dan Newman spent time with the Oilers that season, Kari Makkonen, Wayne Bianchin, Ron Carter, Alex Tidey did too, and that makes 16.

By 1982-83, just three years later, the only remaining members of the original 16 were Mark Messier, Dave Semenko, Dave Hunter and Dave Lumley. Newcomers Jari Kurri, Glenn Anderson, Pat Hughes, Jaroslav Pouzar, Willy Lindstrom and others had moved in and set up shop.

WHY THE HISTORY LESSON?

Yesterday afternoon, the Oilers recalled Taylor Beck and sent down Anton Slepyshev, the kind of transaction an NHL team makes all the time. Slepyshev hung around for 15 games this season (11 a year ago) before demotion, and we will see about a recall. Beck is on his second callup and we will see how things go.

In the comments section yesterday, there was a lot of angst about Slepyshev getting sent out, the idea being that he didn’t get a chance. I would argue the young Russian forward has received two long auditions in the last two years (26 games is pretty long stretch). His totals this year (15gp, 2-2-4) are somewhat similar to those of Kari Makkonen (9gp, 2-2-4) back in the day. Makkonen only got one chance, Slepyshev has had two now, and I suspect he may get more.

Folks, the expectation of Anton Slepyshev is that he will not emerge as a five-year solution for the Oilers. That is also the expectation for Taylor Beck.

YOU KNOW WHAT YOU KNOW

Even though we could be wrong (things change daily), I think we can probably make a list of PC keepers on the wings and be fairly close to correct. Among current Oilers, I would say Milan Lucic, Patrick Maroon and Jesse Puljujarvi are in the Mark Messier and the three Daves portion of the roster—they are going to be around for a time, or a long time.

Jordan Eberle could be Blair MacDonald—or he could hang around for the good times. Eberle already has the contract MacDonald could not shake loose from Glen Sather, so in a way the pressure point is gone. As long as Eberle delivers 60-point seasons, and no other winger exceeds him, Peter Chiarelli can either trade for a better option or run with No. 14.

Benoit Pouliot, Zack Kassian, Matt Hendricks, these men are in the journeyman (Schmautz, Weir) portion of the roster. They are here to provide veteran leadership until a replacement arrives. Candidates to replace them currently include Drake Caggiula and Tyler Pitlick, and more are on the way. Benoit Pouliot is kind of in the Stan Weir slot currently, valued for what he brings but also unlikely to be here when the winning should begin. I am no longer certain all of the big three Cs are part of the modern Mark Messier and the three Daves, by the way.

PROJECTED SCORING TOTALS, 2016-17

  • Milan Lucic (82, 21-36-57); Connor McDavid (82, 31-69-100); Leon Draisaitl (82, 33-33-66).
  • Benoit Pouliot (78, 14-6-20); RNH (82, 13-26-39); Jordan Eberle (82, 21-38-59).
  • Patrick Maroon (82, 21-15-36); Mark Letestu (79, 16-19-35); Tyler Pitlick (79, 19-8-27)
  • Zack Kassian (79, 5-14-19); Drake Caggiula (64, 5-18-23); Jesse Puljujarvi (73, 3-22-25).
  • Source: The Hockey News.

Edmonton could have five 20-goal men this year, and a couple who hit 30. The core group, as I see it, are the 1line above, Maroon, Caggiula and Puljujarvi. I believe RNH, Benoit Pouliot and Jordan Eberle are in a little danger now. And some of that has changed (for me) since the beginning of the season—a campaign in which Edmonton has performed well enough to be in a playoff position this morning.

BECKOLOGY

Photo by Mark Williams

Taylor Beck earned a recall, no matter the outcome. He is ripping up the California backtop and my guess is he gets a real shot at a roster spot in the coming weeks. One way to show just how dominant he has been this year is estimated 5×5 points-per-60 via Prospect-Stats. Here are the regular forwards:

  1. Taylor Beck 3.81
  2. Anton Lander 3.76 (in only six games)
  3. Jujhar Khaira 2.31
  4. Ryan Hamilton 2.30
  5. Mitch Moroz 1.41
  6. Josh Currie 1.33
  7. Scott Allen 1.24
  8. Kyle Platzer 0.90
  9. Joey Benik 0.90
  10. Greg Chase 0.67
  11. Patrick Russell 0.65
  12. Braden Christoffer 0.59
  13. Jere Sallinen 0.31
  14. Source

A few comments here. As hot as Anton Lander has been since getting sent down, Beck has been more productive all year long. In real terms, this recall was overdue. Second, we should not expect impact boxcars, but Beck should be able to contribute if the club puts him in a good spot in the batting order. As a righty shooter, power-play time may be in the offing, and that could benefit player and team.

Jujhar Khaira is posting some good numbers too, suspect we see him here after the deadline. Nice to see Mitch Moroz with a pulse this year offensively, hopefully he can push for more playing time as the season rolls.

JESSE

  • Number 11—Mark Messier. He is so young in many ways—only eight days older than Wayne Gretzky—and so old in others. He can be the best player on the ice, or the worst, and sometimes he is both in the same shift. Peter Gzowski, The Game of our Lives.

I post this not as an attempt to compare the two players, but rather as a reminder (Gzowski’s book remains a treasure) of youth and its incredible power and galling abundance of errors. A lot of people are saying (I suspect that phrase is the new at the end of the day) Puljujarvi needs to be sent away right damned now, in order to get some playing time. I agree he has to play, but suspect it is January. By the way, JP plays as a veteran in many situations (defensively, he seems to be a savant) and I do think the Oilers have a gem. If he plays 20 games in the AHL with talented linemates, suspect the boxcars will be impressive. I see no hurry to do so, January will be fine, then bring him up at the deadline.

SHOOT!

If we can agree there was one opening on RW this fall (behind Eberle, Puljujarvi, Kassian and sometimes Leon), then the demotion of Anton Slepyshev signals that Tyler Pitlick won the war. If there is one thing the young Russian winger might want to add to his arsenal, it is shooting more. Here are the Oilers leaders (forwards) in 5×5 shots per 60:

  1. Tyler Pitlick 10.65
  2. RNH 9.33
  3. Zack Kassian 8.63
  4. Jordan Eberle 8.10
  5. Jesse Puljujarvi 8.02
  6. Anton Slepyshev 8.00
  7. Connor McDavid 7.72
  8. Patrick Maroon 7.38
  9. Milan Lucic 7.11
  10. Leon Draisaitl 6.04
  11. Benoit Pouliot 5.04
  12. Mark Letestu 5.02
  13. Drake Caggiula 3.41
  14. Anton Lander 3.02

I think Connor McDavid will score a bunch of goals the moment he gets a little more selfish in the danger zones, expect that will come soon (he is still a young player, but wicked smart). Beck shoots three times a game in the AHL, I expect he will post a solid number on this list.

CAM TALBOT

If the Oilers are going to make the playoffs, McDavid winning the Art Ross and Cam Talbot stopping pucks at a rapid clip are vital. We know McDavid is No. 1 in scoring, how is Talbot doing in net?

  • NHL average save percentage: .914
  • Talbot save percentage .916 (tied for No. 14 among starters)
  • Even-strength save percentage: .919 (tied for No. 18 among starters)
  • Power-play save percentage: .901 (No. 8 among starters)

The most important number (imo) is his PP save percentage and it has been strong all season. Little doubt in my mind that he has played too much, do you agree? Talbot has played well for much of the season, I would still rank him as the second most valuable player on the team this season. My choice for No. 3 on the list? Andrej Sekera.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10, TSN1260, a freezing Lowdown. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. Gretzky on the Simpsons, WJs, McDavid v Crosby for scoring championship.
  • Guy Flaming, The Pipeline Show. Guy and Taylor Medak called a Canada/Russia game in Bonnyville with about five minutes notice. The terror I would feel would be overwhelming. How did Guy react?
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Point-Counter Point focuses on the NFL (Eagles-Ravens) and how best to develop Jesse Puljujarvi.
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. Paul is overwhelming twitter with polls! We will chat, plus discuss the Saturday Oilers game.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Friday!

 

 

 

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Woodguy

kinger_OIL:
Woodguy,

for sure less than a month ago, and likely 3 weeks, but I’m getting old

Thanks KO

JimmyV1965

Georges: I still don’t get the top pairing thing, but I’ll stick with there are only 10-15 really, really valuabledefensemen definition.

A few weeks back I pulled the stats off the NHL site for all defensemen who played at least 20 minutes a game last season. I used simple k-means clustering to separate them into 2 groups. The first group included the top pair guys (Doughty, Suter, Karlsson, etc.).

Basically, the top pair guys brought more offense, they got PP time, and they took more shots, all of which, as you would imagine, are correlated. Sekera is the only one of our guys who fell into the top cluster. (Klefbom didn’t generate enough offense before he was done for the season.) The nice thing about Nurse is that he likes to shoot, which is a characteristic of top pair guys.

Most of the scoring edge came from PP time. At even strength, top pair guys produce a point every 3rd game while not top pair guys produce a point roughly every 4th game. Top pair guys get a PP point every 5th game while not top pair guys get no PP production.

So for Larsson to jump to top pair, he needs PP time. Someone on the Oilers has to decide to give him a chance to set his ceiling at Brent Burns if they haven’t already decided his ceiling is Vlasic. And, by the way, I’m still working through it, but Vlasic (not top-pair by the clustering) is possibly more important to the Sharks than Burns (top pair by the clustering). Vlasic is a very good ceiling.

I would be absolutely thrilled if Larsson became our version of Vlassic or Hamonic. The trade would still be lopsided but still very beneficial to us. I really like Larsson, but I worry about his footspeed. Can he become an elite defender without great wheels? I’m asking. Is this possible? I really have no idea.

Bruce McCurdy

Georges:
Bruce McCurdy,

I thought we had that tying goal. I think Eberle hit the post in the last minute. It would’ve been so satisfying to see a no, you’re not beating us game out of the Oilers instead of the Flyers that night.

Man that game hurt. I don’t invest emotionally in many games any more but always make an exception for the Flyers, a franchise that I have loathed since before the Oilers were even in the NHL. Moreover I was not one of the many who forgave the Manning-Del Zotto double team as a “hockey play” so beating them has become an even higher priority. Bastards.

Blowing that lead, then coming so close to the tying goal was nothing short of cruel.

Bruce McCurdy

Lowetide: I think Burke’s hair might be impact the survey.

Burke’s tie is the tie-breaker.

Georges

Bruce McCurdy,

I thought we had that tying goal. I think Eberle hit the post in the last minute. It would’ve been so satisfying to see a no, you’re not beating us game out of the Oilers instead of the Flyers that night.

Chachi

Bruce Wayne: That’s ridiculous.

Since your evaluation of Taylor Hall is so far off of mine, I have an honest question.Name me a player you think is comparable?

This has nothing to do with my evaluation of Taylor Hall. I think he is a better player than Matt Duchene. I also know you could not have traded Hall for Duchene. There’s this thing called the real world where people who are really good at their jobs do not seem to get recognized for it no matter what they do. Taylor Hall seems to be one of those people for reasons most of us do not understand. You can prattle on forever about how trading Hall for Larsson was a bad move and I would agree with you. The correct thing to do would have been to not trade him at all, but alas we are here. The world is unfair and the Oilers with Adam Larsson and not Taylor Hall have a chance at making the playoffs. We will never know what could have been. I am not going to tell you to get over it because it is your right to be upset about it, but you might want to rethink attacking people who have come to terms with the fact that Hall is gone and his value on the trade market, as measured in right shooting defencemen, was Adam Larsson.

RexLibris

N64: In triple blind studies even the pill is uncertain it’s a placebo.

So Burke is actually in the control group?

Wouldn’t surprise me one bit.

Something about taking a sip from a firehose.

N64

kinger_OIL: – This is danger!Thanks though…So one can type in any nic and get same results: cool!

– Funny how I say some google like search engine, and in fact, its exactly a google search engine!

Yes. You can make the search terms whatever you want. You can change or drop the month or the year. You can search any site that Google searches

Did not find “kinger/60”. What was your original question? Did not remember enough to find it.

N64

RexLibris: Get a referral to Brian Burke’s GP, then.

In triple blind studies even the pill is uncertain it’s a placebo. 😉

Georges

frjohnk: Many suggest there are only 10 to 15 number 1 Dmen. Just because he is in the top 60 best Dman does not mean he is an actual top pairing Dman.

Sekera is our best Dman and nobody suggests he is top pairing.

Spreadsheet test says Larsson is more a second pairing Dman.
And TOI suggests that we have 2 second pairing D pairs.

Eye test does he look like top pairing?
Skating- no
Skating with puck-no
Shot-no
Passing-no
Offensive play-no
Positioning-yes
Defensive play-yes
Other skills?

I’d love for Larsson to make the jump as a top pairing Dman as it would be an in house solution to a balanced roster. But he’s not there yet.

I still don’t get the top pairing thing, but I’ll stick with there are only 10-15 really, really valuable defensemen definition.

A few weeks back I pulled the stats off the NHL site for all defensemen who played at least 20 minutes a game last season. I used simple k-means clustering to separate them into 2 groups. The first group included the top pair guys (Doughty, Suter, Karlsson, etc.).

Basically, the top pair guys brought more offense, they got PP time, and they took more shots, all of which, as you would imagine, are correlated. Sekera is the only one of our guys who fell into the top cluster. (Klefbom didn’t generate enough offense before he was done for the season.) The nice thing about Nurse is that he likes to shoot, which is a characteristic of top pair guys.

Most of the scoring edge came from PP time. At even strength, top pair guys produce a point every 3rd game while not top pair guys produce a point roughly every 4th game. Top pair guys get a PP point every 5th game while not top pair guys get no PP production.

So for Larsson to jump to top pair, he needs PP time. Someone on the Oilers has to decide to give him a chance to set his ceiling at Brent Burns if they haven’t already decided his ceiling is Vlasic. And, by the way, I’m still working through it, but Vlasic (not top-pair by the clustering) is possibly more important to the Sharks than Burns (top pair by the clustering). Vlasic is a very good ceiling.

treevojo

Bruce Wayne: Since 2012-13 Taylor Hall has outscored Matt Duchene, while giving up fewer shots, attempted shots, expected goals, and goals, than Duchene.

No matter what indicator of defensive ability you choose, Taylor Hall is going to come out ahead of Matt Duchene.Over a very long sample of games Taylor Hall has contributed to more goals for while contributing to fewer goals against than MattDuchene.That is a simple fact.

I am quite sure that the people that run Team Canada do not know this.I am not sure why their ignorance would contribute to their credibility.

You’ve made an argument from authority.Unfortunately arguments from authority don’t carry very much authority.

Since 2013-14 to current day Duchene has put up more goals and points playing a more demanding position on imo just as bad team.

It’s ok for people to like players more then Hall.

It doesn’t make them stupid.

Bruce McCurdy

frjohnk: Vlasic is a very good skater and is underrated offensively. 39 pointslast year.

Not sure Larsson is a good comparable

Vlasic did have a fine offensive season last year, the second of his career. Worth noting that he did so at age 28, a.k.a. his peak.

Interesting to compare Vlasic and Larsson at similar ages. These are boxcars only. Note: Larsson (Nov 12 birthday) is nearly 8 months younger than Vlasic (Mar 30) in each row:

Age ||| M-E Vlasic ||| Adam Larsson

19 ||| 81 3 23 26 ||| 65 2 16 18
20 ||| 82 2 12 14 ||| 37 0 6 6
21 ||| 82 6 30 36 ||| 26 1 2 3

22 ||| 64 3 13 16 ||| 64 3 21 24
23 ||| 80 4 14 18 ||| 82 3 15 18
24 ||| 82 4 19 23 ||| 32* 2 4 6

25 ||| 48 3 4 7
26 ||| 81 5 19 24
27 ||| 70 9 14 23
28 ||| 67 8 31 39
29 ||| 29* 3 4 7

Bottom season for each is the current one, so incomplete.

Vlasic had one big early season (21 powerplay points were a big contributor), but at 23 he was very close to Larsson’s current level and remained in that neighbourhood for a few years, all the while being considered an outstanding defender by insiders.

Obviously boxcars do a poor job of identifying “outstanding defenders” but you did say “underrated offensively”. I would suggest Vlasic’s 2015-16 season was something of an outlier and he’s more of a 25-point guy. Not unreasonable to expect Larsson to be in that range.

Side

Georges: Hmm, you took this as a shot against his ability to drive a line? Nope. He’s great. I was saying while it might have been good for the Oilers to have Taylor Hall on the second line, it may not have been good for Taylor Hall. If the local media asks him if he’s OK taking a back seat to a player like McDavid, he’s going to say of course he’s OK. That’s just Hall being a good teammate and meeting the NHL code. So it’s not a problem, but after five years of being the man, yeah, it is. The precedent I can come up with involving a superstar joining an underachieving team that already had a star is San Antonio with Tim Duncan and David Robinson. But that was already a strong team, Robinson was in the second part of his career and he wanted a championship.

But before you say that’s just my opinion, that’s just my opinion.

I don’t get the impression that Hall, who seemed absolutely devastated about being traded, would have objected to having a superstar join his team who could help him and his team get into the playoffs for the first time in his career.

Especially when him and that superstar become good friends and roommates.

I don’t buy it, and I haven’t seen anything to support the “Hall hates not being the top dog” view.

RexLibris

Bruce McCurdy: I was talking about the season Before the firstborn and MacT’s comments and the gear changes and the Swarm and the Spanish Inquisition. Even then people were critiquing Dubnyk on the 8% of shots that beat him without much accounting for the 92% that didn’t.

As for what a soft goal does to a team, how is that different from a horrendous giveaway or brutal coverage fail that leads to a goal?

I was taught it’s a team and the goalie is part of it, even as he stands out for obvious reasons, starting with those pads.

One of my teachers was the great Scott Young (father of Neil), who in his superb book The Leafs I Knew reproduced this column from 1958 December 13:

So far in the past that the word “ass” needed to be deleted from a family newspaper (and even a derivative book), but the underlying principles of the game and team play have really not changed at all.

That tying goal in 1958 was the exact same one I was desperately hoping for in Philadelphia last week. After all, this is a team, and we wouldn’t want Oscar Klefbom to be a horse’s-deleted. Or the goalie, for that matter.

This is an awesome reference, Bruce.

Thank you for posting it.

Also, the people I know who know people. Wow.

RexLibris

Bruce McCurdy: But I don’t want to take a humble pill, I want to take a pill that’s absolutely fucking sure of itself.

Get a referral to Brian Burke’s GP, then.

Georges

JimmyV1965: No offence, but this is the stuff that bugs me about some commentary on the trade and the usual reason I wade back into the debate. Why do some people feel compelled to denigrate Hall? The guy can clearly drive a line because he’s done it his entire career.And he stated countless times that Connor was the leader of this team and seemed quite happy with that. Why would he have a problem heading up the second line? That’s what good team do.

Hmm, you took this as a shot against his ability to drive a line? Nope. He’s great. I was saying while it might have been good for the Oilers to have Taylor Hall on the second line, it may not have been good for Taylor Hall. If the local media asks him if he’s OK taking a back seat to a player like McDavid, he’s going to say of course he’s OK. That’s just Hall being a good teammate and meeting the NHL code. So it’s not a problem, but after five years of being the man, yeah, it is. The precedent I can come up with involving a superstar joining an underachieving team that already had a star is San Antonio with Tim Duncan and David Robinson. But that was already a strong team, Robinson was in the second part of his career and he wanted a championship.

But before you say that’s just my opinion, that’s just my opinion.

Bruce McCurdy

sliderule: I think you played goal so probably you don’t appreciate how deflating letting in long high floaters like Duby was doing is to a team.When the score from slot when no one is even near the guy like Talbot was having happen the players forgive.
The fact that Duby was doing this while dealing with a new firstbornand according to reports not getting much sleepis partly on the oilers.Maybe they helped his family in dealing with it but I heard crickets.Then Mact comes in and destroys what little confidence he had with his comments..
It’s the oiler way.

I was talking about the season Before the firstborn and MacT’s comments and the gear changes and the Swarm and the Spanish Inquisition. Even then people were critiquing Dubnyk on the 8% of shots that beat him without much accounting for the 92% that didn’t.

As for what a soft goal does to a team, how is that different from a horrendous giveaway or brutal coverage fail that leads to a goal?

I was taught it’s a team and the goalie is part of it, even as he stands out for obvious reasons, starting with those pads.

One of my teachers was the great Scott Young (father of Neil), who in his superb book The Leafs I Knew reproduced this column from 1958 December 13:

“All right, you guys,” said Punch Imlach behind the Leaf bench when Rangers were leading 4-3, late in the third, “your goalkeeper is a horse’s-deleted if you don’t get that goal back, and this is a team, and you don’t want anybody on it to be a horse’s-deleted. So get it back.”

On such straightforward little lectures in ethical behaviour are unbeaten streaks maintained. Dick Duff, with his fifth goal in five games, got it back at 18:38 of the third period. Rangers had gone ahead on a bounce off the backboards that Johnny Bower had tried to trap, but missed. That left him out of position and the puck on Dean Prentice’s stick for an easy goal. It would have been a lousy goal on which to lose a game, especially after Leafs had led Rangers, 3-1, in the third.

When Bower came off the ice he said to Imlach, “I blew that one for us.”

Imlach said: “Forget it. They tied it for you. Just remember that now you owe them something.”

So far in the past that the word “ass” needed to be deleted from a family newspaper (and even a derivative book), but the underlying principles of the game and team play have really not changed at all.

That tying goal in 1958 was the exact same one I was desperately hoping for in Philadelphia last week. After all, this is a team, and we wouldn’t want Oscar Klefbom to be a horse’s-deleted. Or the goalie, for that matter.

kinger_OIL

N64: fall away:

Dec:

https://www.google.ca/search?q=kinger_oil%20site%3Alowetide.ca%2F2016%2F12

Nov:

https://www.google.ca/search?q=kinger_oil%20site%3Alowetide.ca%2F2016%2F11

– This is danger! Thanks though…So one can type in any nic and get same results: cool!

– Funny how I say some google like search engine, and in fact, its exactly a google search engine!

kinger_OIL

Woodguy,

for sure less than a month ago, and likely 3 weeks, but I’m getting old

Bruce McCurdy

stush18: Also, let’s everyone take a humble pill.

But I don’t want to take a humble pill, I want to take a pill that’s absolutely fucking sure of itself.

stush18

Bruce Wayne: Since 2012-13 Taylor Hall has outscored Matt Duchene, while giving up fewer shots, attempted shots, expected goals, and goals, than Duchene.

No matter what indicator of defensive ability you choose, Taylor Hall is going to come out ahead of Matt Duchene.Over a very long sample of games Taylor Hall has contributed to more goals for while contributing to fewer goals against than MattDuchene.That is a simple fact.

I am quite sure that the people that run Team Canada do not know this.I am not sure why their ignorance would contribute to their credibility.

You’ve made an argument from authority.Unfortunately arguments from authority don’t carry very much authority.

I think team canada prefers centres to wingers. The ability to play any position matters a lot to them. In a tourney of small samples, you can’t stick with the same lineup of it isn’t working. Not enough time to let a line work itself out.

Hall needs one of the top three left wing spots, because he doesn’t kill penalties. Marchand has one because of his chemistry with Bergeron.

Now you two spots left and you have benn taking one. So you have one left. Does it go to hall? Where does Tavares play?

Now I think if you could add hall to any recent team and they still win regardless. But it’s hard to argue with a winning roster.

sliderule

Bruce McCurdy: Yet another perceptive comment, Georges. Love your posts.

The year Devan Dubnyk became the first and still only Oilers’ starter to post a .920 Sv%, he was forever assailed with comments like “soft goals at bad times” (like there’s ever a “good” time to be allowing goals on a team that scores 2 goals a game). I often would snark back “do soft goals count double or something?” because I thought (and think) it was a bum rap.

Of course the next year the wheels came off for DD, but one of the reasons they came off so quickly was that instead of having the benefit of the doubt from his three good years here, he had this “soft goals” rep and fans were quick to follow their GM’s lead in “asking the question”.

I think you played goal so probably you don’t appreciate how deflating letting in long high floaters like Duby was doing is to a team.When the score from slot when no one is even near the guy like Talbot was having happen the players forgive.
The fact that Duby was doing this while dealing with a new firstborn and according to reports not getting much sleep is partly on the oilers.Maybe they helped his family in dealing with it but I heard crickets.Then Mact comes in and destroys what little confidence he had with his comments..
It’s the oiler way.

Georges

Bruce Wayne: I’m not sure if it is intentional, but it is disengenous to give credit to Larsson for the high save percentage of Devil goaltenders last year, but no blame for the astonishing low save percentage Oilers’ goaltenders have this year when Larsson is on the ice.

If there is one thing the Larsson experience should have demonstrated is you can’t judge defenseman based on how the goalies’ behind them perform.

There aren’t sixty top pairing D in the league, and even if there were, you’d be hard pressed to make a case that Larsson is one of them.He isn’t the best D on this team, and this team doesn’t have anyone who is a sure fire top pairing D.

People keep bringing up the trade because the trade wasn’t simply bad, but ludicrous.

Honest question.What do you think Larsson’s trade value is today?Could you get Matt Duchene for him?Of course not, not even close.And Taylor Hall is a better player than Matt Duchene.

The trade wasn’t simply bad, it was ridiculous.The kind of trade that if someone suggested it on a message board they’d be mocked mercilessly.And yet it happened.That isn’t the kind of thing that is every going to go away..

Honest reply. I’m not looking to trade Adam Larsson.

I wonder about the low save percentage with Larsson on the ice. I wonder about the inexplicable, no pressure giveaways that I saw in a couple of games. I also wonder why he’s not handling the puck as confidently as I saw at the beginning of the season.

I think I’ve mentioned that I like to cheer for and not against the players on the team. I know that New Jersey valued him enough to give him first pairing minutes. I can see things in Larsson’s game and manner that suggest to me that he competes and that he can help a team win. If that’s not happening to its fullest potential yet after 32 games in his Oilers career, hey, I can wait, because he’ll come around as the coaching staff gets more out of the rest of the team and the rest of the team becomes more cohesive around McDavid.

I don’t object in any way to you bringing up the trade and how bad it was whenever the Oilers drop a couple of games. I don’t object in any way with you expressing your view of Larsson’s modest abilities. The position you’ve taken leaves you very little room to see positives in Adam Larsson’s game or future with the Oilers. That’s where you live. I live somewhere else. I have lots of room.

tsg

Woodguy:
kinger_OIL,

I also think they could have added Lucic and Demers while keeping Hall, but again it would have been really, really tight this year.

They tried hard not to move Hall, but in the end he was the only big ticket out that brought any real value coming back.

If Peter had a do-over I bet he might keep Hall and take the RNH for Dumba trade and then sign both Demers and Lucic.

No one offered much for Eberle and they tried to move Pouliot without taking much money back but that wasn’t happening either.

It would have been tight, but doable to have both Hall and Lucic. That would have been my preference. The forward depth on that team would have been unrivaled. Pulijarvi in the minors for cap bonus reasons wouldn’t have been the worst thing in the world. It may have even been worth while to add a draft pick or some other sweetener to Pouliot, to make a deal work if bonus space was that much of a concern.

stush18

Thanks for the replys guys.

What I was getting at is we are analyzing this thing every single day. I follow lots of very smart hockey people on here and Twitter, and they’ve stopped searching and digging up different analytical gems.

This isn’t a slag on woodguy, but he was certain arcobello could slot in as our number 2 centre a couple years ago. Numbers backed him up, but it turns out he was wrong. He didn’t have the full picture, despite the excellent work done.

Let’s do this again. Let’s dig into slepyshev and beck and letestu and see if we can determine a pattern, draw some conclusions. Let’s stop talking about halls driving ability. Get over it.

Want to talk the history of chiarelli? Sure mention the hall trade then. But let’s get into the math of OUR players again. I would like too, but now that I’m out of school I’m too busy to do much more than comment opinion rather than dig into facts.

Also, let’s everyone take a humble pill. No matter what these numbers say, these are professionals trying to make this team better. None of us have been there, so I’m not sure it’s fair to draw a firm conclusion now one way or the other, if ever.

theres oil in virginia

Woodguy: I do appreciate the help.

KO posts in every thread though….

hehe

If you add some keywords to those searches that N64 posted, I bet you’ld find it. I remember the discussion occurring, but not enough about it to attempt a search.

Woodguy
Georges

fifthcartel:
Georges,

If they were going to have a Crosby/Malkin type thing, I don’t think he’d care. Take time away from the third and fourth lines and I’m betting that’s a successful lineup.

I’m also becoming increasingly curious why they didn’t move the Benson pick for Anthony DeAngelo.

You’re right. I have no idea if it would’ve worked out. But I believe that it would have not worked out, partly on Hall having to accept a secondary role but mostly on how far the team needed to get on the defensive side of things even with both of them in the lineup (as evidenced by their record after McDavid’s return from injury).

I remember thinking man look at our forwards. Three scoring lines. Resistance is futile. I thought we would go on a 10 game win streak after the Columbus and Ottawa games. Then came Montreal. And then the Islanders. And then the dark slog, lit up with an occasional firework from McDavid, to the end.

Gretzky, Lemieux, and Crosby got Messier, Jagr, and Malkin after they arrived on their teams. Hall, to me, seems a type A guy who wants and needs A minutes. He gets to be a type A guy in New Jersey.

If New Jersey and Schneider find the goals against script again, he’s exactly what that team needs. I don’t believe that he’s exactly what a team with Connor McDavid needs.

Cassandra

GMB3: Thanks for reminding me you’re smarter than everyone in professional hockey because you like numbers and not enough people in the NHL do, so therefore you are much more equipped to evaluate players.

Projecting the attitude that you are always right doesn’t mean you are.

Being right is what makes you right. I’ll ask you the same honest question. If Taylor Hall is worse than Matt Duchene, who is the same as?

We are really getting to the heart of the matter here. Not only do Edmonton Oiler fans not think that Taylor Hall is a superstar, they don’t even think he is particularly good. I am beginning to think that there is a segment of the fanbase who would have been happy with any living, breathing, NHL defenseman.

N64

kinger_OIL: – Can’t remember either, but LT has a “search engine” that can do that if he was so kind?

– On that note: I’ve often said it would be a neat feature, if we could actually do a “LT Google Search”, and get the list of various posters comments.

– I guess the downside to that would be that people could go over with fine tooth comb anything anyone said, and could descend into free-fall…

fall away:

Dec:

https://www.google.ca/search?q=kinger_oil%20site%3Alowetide.ca%2F2016%2F12

Nov:

https://www.google.ca/search?q=kinger_oil%20site%3Alowetide.ca%2F2016%2F11

Cassandra

GMB3: I’d take Matt Duchene over Taylor Hall in a heartbeat. There is a reason one of those two players is seen as Team Canada worthy

Since 2012-13 Taylor Hall has outscored Matt Duchene, while giving up fewer shots, attempted shots, expected goals, and goals, than Duchene.

No matter what indicator of defensive ability you choose, Taylor Hall is going to come out ahead of Matt Duchene. Over a very long sample of games Taylor Hall has contributed to more goals for while contributing to fewer goals against than Matt Duchene. That is a simple fact.

I am quite sure that the people that run Team Canada do not know this. I am not sure why their ignorance would contribute to their credibility.

You’ve made an argument from authority. Unfortunately arguments from authority don’t carry very much authority.

Woodguy

kinger_OIL: – Can’t remember either, but LT has a “search engine” that can do that if he was so kind?

– On that note: I’ve often said it would be a neat feature, if we could actually do a “LT Google Search”, and get the list of various posters comments.

– I guess the downside to that would be that people could go over with fine tooth comb anything anyone said, and could descend into free-fall…

Thanks anyhow.

I thought it was within the last month and not in a GDT, but I looked at em all and didn’t see it.

Mind you I was scrolling pretty fast looking for the massive line of player results and may have missed it.

Do you think it happened within the last 3 weeks?

GMB3

Bruce Wayne: That’s ridiculous.

Since your evaluation of Taylor Hall is so far off of mine, I have an honest question.Name me a player you think is comparable?

Thanks for reminding me you’re smarter than everyone in professional hockey because you like numbers and not enough people in the NHL do, so therefore you are much more equipped to evaluate players.

Projecting the attitude that you are always right doesn’t mean you are.

Gordies Elbow

GMB3,

Yep, but Demer’s agent Bob Sauve couldn’t complete a deal until free agency starts on July 1st. The Hall-Larsson trade was June 28th.

Why would Demer’s wait until July 2nd for an offer from Edmonton?

Cassandra

Chachi: And yet you would not have been able to trade Hall for Duchene.

That’s ridiculous.

Since your evaluation of Taylor Hall is so far off of mine, I have an honest question. Name me a player you think is comparable?

GMB3

Gordies Elbow: I’m not getting the timelines.

Was Chiarelli trying to sign Demers after trading Hall for Larsson? (Taylor Hall was traded on June 29th)

Did Chiarelli come to a handshake deal with Bob Sauve, and then back away from it on July 1st?

Also, any idea what the deal would have looked like?

Chia had Demers and Lucic come visit the arena prior to the trade.

Chachi

GMB3: I’d take Matt Duchene over Taylor Hall in a heartbeat. There is a reason one of those two players is seen as Team Canada worthy

Yup.

GMB3

Bruce Wayne: I’m not sure if it is intentional, but it is disengenous to give credit to Larsson for the high save percentage of Devil goaltenders last year, but no blame for the astonishing low save percentage Oilers’ goaltenders have this year when Larsson is on the ice.

If there is one thing the Larsson experience should have demonstrated is you can’t judge defenseman based on how the goalies’ behind them perform.

There aren’t sixty top pairing D in the league, and even if there were, you’d be hard pressed to make a case that Larsson is one of them.He isn’t the best D on this team, and this team doesn’t have anyone who is a sure fire top pairing D.

People keep bringing up the trade because the trade wasn’t simply bad, but ludicrous.

Honest question.What do you think Larsson’s trade value is today?Could you get Matt Duchene for him?Of course not, not even close.And Taylor Hall is a better player than Matt Duchene.

The trade wasn’t simply bad, it was ridiculous.The kind of trade that if someone suggested it on a message board they’d be mocked mercilessly.And yet it happened.That isn’t the kind of thing that is every going to go away..

I’d take Matt Duchene over Taylor Hall in a heartbeat. There is a reason one of those two players is seen as Team Canada worthy

Gordies Elbow

Woodguy:
kinger_OIL,

I have it on a very good authority that Demrs wanted to sign here.

They held off signing anything all day July 1st waiting for the offer from EDM.

It never came, so he called and was told that EDM was no longer interested and Demers signed early July 2nd.

EDM had interest in Demers, but when Lucic told them he was coming they cleared the cap space by moving Hall for a Larsson and no longer had the room for Demers.

I think they could have fit him in, but it would have been really close given the bonus overages needed to be accounted for.

I’m not getting the timelines.

Was Chiarelli trying to sign Demers after trading Hall for Larsson? (Taylor Hall was traded on June 29th)

Did Chiarelli come to a handshake deal with Bob Sauve, and then back away from it on July 1st?

Also, any idea what the deal would have looked like?

Chachi

Bruce Wayne: Honest question. What do you think Larsson’s trade value is today? Could you get Matt Duchene for him? Of course not, not even close. And Taylor Hall is a better player than Matt Duchene.

And yet you would not have been able to trade Hall for Duchene.

krakman

Woodguy,

So it sounds like they decided to do whatever it took to sign Lucic and add a rhd. I admit I might be biased but does any one really think Lucic complements McDavid in any way?

Woodguy

treevojo: Any idea of the salary and term that was being thrown around?

Nope.

You’d guess it was close to what he signed for in FLA.

~5MM/yr x 5

Cassandra

Georges: Adam Larsson played first pairing minutes on a team that was 8th in GAA (2.46) last year.

That team, without Larsson, sits at 23rd in GAA (2.97) so far this season.

I would tell my eyes to look at that information closely if my eyes told me that Adam Larsson is not one of the top 60 defensemen in this league.

I’m not sure if it is intentional, but it is disengenous to give credit to Larsson for the high save percentage of Devil goaltenders last year, but no blame for the astonishing low save percentage Oilers’ goaltenders have this year when Larsson is on the ice.

If there is one thing the Larsson experience should have demonstrated is you can’t judge defenseman based on how the goalies’ behind them perform.

There aren’t sixty top pairing D in the league, and even if there were, you’d be hard pressed to make a case that Larsson is one of them. He isn’t the best D on this team, and this team doesn’t have anyone who is a sure fire top pairing D.

People keep bringing up the trade because the trade wasn’t simply bad, but ludicrous.

Honest question. What do you think Larsson’s trade value is today? Could you get Matt Duchene for him? Of course not, not even close. And Taylor Hall is a better player than Matt Duchene.

The trade wasn’t simply bad, it was ridiculous. The kind of trade that if someone suggested it on a message board they’d be mocked mercilessly. And yet it happened. That isn’t the kind of thing that is every going to go away..

kinger_OIL

Woodguy:
kinger_OIL,

Do you remember which thread it was where I went through the work on the KINGER/60 numbers?

I went looking for it, but couldn’t find it.

Thank you in advance.

– Can’t remember either, but LT has a “search engine” that can do that if he was so kind?

– On that note: I’ve often said it would be a neat feature, if we could actually do a “LT Google Search”, and get the list of various posters comments.

– I guess the downside to that would be that people could go over with fine tooth comb anything anyone said, and could descend into free-fall…

go_oil

I loved Wednesday’s metaphor of the Oilers needing to find a way to fire all pistons. I don’t think we’ve seen this group reach it’s full potential yet this season, which bodes well for a playoff push. I don’t mind the line juggling to find the best chemistry/balance in the group – but I hope they find it quick.

I agree with KINGER_OIL’s assessment – the offence is going, they need to tighten up on their defense as a whole – drop that GA down. And McLellan touched on it in his presser – the little plays and checks to clear the zone, advance the puck, and win battles – this team has not done this consistently as a group. I think the trade has benefited both the Devils and Oilers… long term I’d rather have Larsson over Demers.

And it will be interesting to see how they handle Puljujarvi and Caggiula the rest of the way. I don’t mind if they are sent down for Khaira and Lander to come back up at some point.

Georges

Bruce McCurdy: Yet another perceptive comment, Georges. Love your posts.

The year Devan Dubnyk became the first and still only Oilers’ starter to post a .920 Sv%, he was forever assailed with comments like “soft goals at bad times” (like there’s ever a “good” time to be allowing goals on a team that scores 2 goals a game). I often would snark back “do soft goals count double or something?” because I thought (and think) it was a bum rap.

Of course the next year the wheels came off for DD, but one of the reasons they came off so quickly was that instead of having the benefit of the doubt from his three good years here, he had this “soft goals” rep and fans were quick to follow their GM’s lead in “asking the question”.

Thanks, Bruce! It’s a mutual admiration society then.

Dubnyk’s MVP-level resurrection is astonishing. But Nilsson is having a mini resurrection in Buffalo too.

Some teams (Montreal, Minnesota, Buffalo) have been high save percentage goalie factories. Other teams (us, Calgary, Winnipeg) have been low save percentage goalie graveyards.

I am definitely, definitely rooting for Talbot. I worry about pointing out anything about his play because I don’t want to invite the question. Because, as you pointed out in Dubnyk’s case, questioning plays a real part in undoing a goalie.

treevojo

Woodguy:
kinger_OIL,

I have it on a very good authority that Demers wanted to sign here.

They held off signing anything all day July 1st waiting for the offer from EDM.

It never came, so he called and was told that EDM was no longer interested and Demers signed early July 2nd.

EDM had interest in Demers, but when Lucic told them he was coming they cleared the cap space by moving Hall for a Larsson and no longer had the room for Demers.

I think they could have fit him in, but it would have been really close given the bonus overages needed to be accounted for.

Any idea of the salary and term that was being thrown around?

Woodguy

kinger_OIL,

I also think they could have added Lucic and Demers while keeping Hall, but again it would have been really, really tight this year.

They tried hard not to move Hall, but in the end he was the only big ticket out that brought any real value coming back.

If Peter had a do-over I bet he might keep Hall and take the RNH for Dumba trade and then sign both Demers and Lucic.

No one offered much for Eberle and they tried to move Pouliot without taking much money back but that wasn’t happening either.

treevojo

JimmyV1965: No offence, but this is the stuff that bugs me about some commentary on the trade and the usual reason I wade back into the debate. Why do some people feel compelled to denigrate Hall? The guy can clearly drive a line because he’s done it his entire career.And he stated countless times that Connor was the leader of this team and seemed quite happy with that. Why would he have a problem heading up the second line? That’s what good team do.

I disagree.

That post along with any others that include statistical analysis are the only ones that add anything to the Hall/Larsson debate.

It is the posts that start with “Did you see what Hall did today” that add nothing new and are meant to antagonize.

Those comments seem to come from both sides of the debate.