G37 2016-17: KINGS AT OILERS

by Lowetide

It seems like a mighty long time since Connor McDavid thrilled the home crowd, but the good lord willing and the creek don’t rise, that will happen again tonight. If a rest was what was needed, and it did look like it, we should see some smoke on the water tonight.

HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 6-2-4, goal differential +1
  • Oilers after 36, 2015: 15-18-3, goal differential -18
  • Oilers after 36, 2016: 18-12-6, goal differential +8

Edmonton roared through (work with me here) the first 36 games posting an 18-18 record with six Bettman points, and landed on 42 points (improvement of nine points from last season). Edmonton is +26 in goal differential year over year and (as we have discussed) the numbers are heading in a good direction pretty much across the board. G37 a year ago was a 5-3 loss to Calgary.

CONCERN

We talked about balance being an issue at the beginning of the year and it remains a major one. The best way to express it?

  • Connor McCavid with Cam Talbot: 3.38GF-1.81GA/60 (65.1 percent GF percentage 5×5)
  • Cam Talbot without Connor McDavid: 1.86GF-2.27GA/60 (44.9 percent GF percentage 5×5)
  • Source

I think that is the big item for the Oilers. You will read about Cam Talbot being less than splendid, and there may come a day when Edmonton has to upgrade at the position. The power play and penalty kill have been challenges from time to time this season and injury is an issue in some areas, too.

That without number on the 5×5 is the big one, the Moby Dick. The Corsi for 5×5 without McDavid (49.2) is respectable, need that scoring number to move closer to 50 percent of all scoring results without 97. That is the nut.

KRIS RUSSELL

  • Jim Matheson: And Kris Russell, who will never win over the analytics crowd but will get offered a new contract after Jan. 1, no matter what the naysayers gripe. Source

I don’t see Russell as being an especially divisive player for the analytics crowd, beyond the fact he is playing on the wrong side and too far up the depth chart. The lefty-righty study said it costs six Corsi points (and a get out of jail free card) to play on the wrong side, but let’s say it is only three. Russell is currently 45.4 Corsi for 5×5, so three points moves him to 48.4, and you can put that player on third pair LH side and make it work.

The problem? Darnell Nurse is 53.2 Corsi for 5×5 in that role, and he is younger and can carry the puck more productively. I think you can fairly tax Nurse based on inexperience, but even then Nurse won’t cost as much as Kris Russell next season. I think the Russell signing, should it come, would signal a trade—possibly a LHD for a righty blue.

October 5, 2013: The Oklahoma City Barons play the Charlotte Checkers in an American Hockey League game at the Cox Convention Center in Oklahoma City. Photo by Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved.

OSCAR KLEFBOM AND MATT BENNING

  • Todd McLellan: “I think sometimes Klef gets unfairly put up with the elite, but he’s only played 140 games, but he probably was elite on our team, but he needs more time and experience. On many other teams everyone would be happy with him coming in and where he is at. I don’t see much difference in Benning and Klefbom, except Benning gets to come in at a much better time for the organization and expectations on him are lower.” Source

This is a fascinating quote, somewhat similar to the Nuge avail McLellan had one year ago. Oscar has struggled this season, but is also the defender (I believe) with the farthest outer marker. The injury, added to lack of experience, probably give Klefbom lower trade value than he will have at any time since arriving in Edmonton. Peter Chiarelli’s two biggest trade assets at this time—as I see them—are Oscar Klefbom and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Both men have low value currently, and the play here is to keep your powder dry.

CALEB JONES

Our man for Team USA went 0-1-1 in 20:09, leading all skaters in the contest. I spoke to Steve Kournianos of The Draft Analyst on the Lowdown yesterday, he commented on Jones speed and passing ability. I think Jones stays in the minors exactly as long as it takes to learn the coverage game at the higher level, and to cut back on the sorties a little. His skating is already there. Hannah Stuart has some interesting thoughts on the team here. I think Caleb Jones fits in with here high risk, high reward commentary on the entire USA blue.

OILERS FORWARDS (SCORING)

  • This is each Oiler forward, their ranking among NHL forwards, along with some notes.
  • McDavid has an 11-point gap between himself and Leon Draisaitl. Those worried about the gap between 97 and Leon would be shocked at the final stats from 1980-81, where Gretzky bested Jari Kurri by 89 points. Lordy. The following year, the gap was more than 100.
  • A more rational comparison of McDavid-Nuge is probably Weight-Zdeno Ciger in 1996.
  • Pleased for Leon Draisaitl, who is having a fine year, with power-play numbers pushing those boxcars. He is also improving his 5×5 scoring as well.
  • Milan Lucic has good boxcars, they are coming mostly on the power play. All good, but he needs to post better 5×5 numbers (2.00 last season). Whatever the hitch in the 5×5 giddyup, important to get the big train moving.
  • Jordan Eberle scored 28 points per 37 games in his career entering 2016-17, so he is behind his career levels by five points. A concern, but one hot streak will take care of it.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is off by 10 points compared to career, and that is a concern. Dave Keon talked about cheating for defense too much after his career was over, felt he had become so immersed in playing the checking role that he stopped pushing as hard as he could on the other side. Todd McLellan may have a similar player here.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi’s point total after his first 24 games doesn’t look impressive, but Taylor Hall went 24gp, 6-6-12 at the beginning of his career, on about 17 minutes a night. JP has just eight points, but is playing 11:39 per evening.
  • If all things were equal across the NHL, Edmonton would have three forwards in the top 90 scorers (they have four) and nine inside the top 270 forwards (they have nine). I know there is plenty of heat on Milan Lucic and Jordan Eberle, and with merit (5×5 needs to be better). The scoring past the top 4F above is abysmal, and has to turn around.

OILERS DEFENSE (DFF AND SCORING)

  • This is sorted by minutes against elites, I think that is the best way to rank No. 1 through No. 6 on defense. There are still issues (injuries, etc) but little doubt in my mind this fits with reality.
  • Andrej Sekera is inside the NHL’s top 30 scoring defenders and plays the most minutes against elites. What’s more, his success rate (DFF) is better than the other three big minutes blue.
  • Adam Larsson ranks No. 2 in minutes against elites, and has the best DFF Rel among the big minutes blue. I like Rel for defensemen, always have (as you will see in a bit) and even though these numbers are still small sample sizes, I think we can say with some authority that Larsson is the best available RH defensive option on the team.
  • Oscar Klefbom has struggled against the tough opposition, but his numbers are not so out of line as to suggest he be replaced on the top 4D. I do wonder if Brandon Davidson slides up the depth chart at some point, though.
  • Matt Benning and Darnell Nurse play less against the elites, but when they do both youngsters have been effective. Full Stop. Edmonton’s defense is getting better, brick by brick.
  • Thanks to G Money and Woodguy for sharing DFF and DFF Rel with us again today.

DAVID STAPLES

I do not know who Ryan McWawa is, but his article yesterday struck a nerve (or a chord) because several of you DM’d and emailed it to me. I rarely comment on this, for several reasons, the most important of which should be obvious if you use your head for more than a hat rack. Also, analytics is not my field of expertise—plus, the venom over these things becomes toxic and honestly I am too old to fight online battles with ghosts and broken links.

I believe you are smart enough to figure this out for yourself, and if you cannot, there is nothing I can do for you. I will re-publish what I wrote in 2010 (!!!) about an earlier version of David’s work. It still stands as how I feel about it today.

  • The mistakes David refers to are “errors” which he measures on each goal. I think we’re going to have to decide which of the measures we’re going to use from here on out. Kind of a modern “VHS versus Beta” discussion. I believe counting only the events that surround goals misses most of the game and in fact punishes those who play against the best opposition too severely. I’ve always used relCorsi run through toughness of opposition, as it’s easily explained, understood and reflective of reality.
  • I think David Staples is a fine person and a great writer. My interaction with him has always been positive and I wish him no ill will. I don’t think “errors” moves the conversation forward in a rational way. What am I missing?
  • Source

It is not for me to tell you what to think, nor is it for me to tell David Staples what to publish. If you believe his work has merit, then you should state that, you should defend it. If you do not, then I invite you to join the church home of your own—be it Corsi, WoodMoney or any number of interesting metrics out in the ether.

If people are willing to share their ideas, and publish their findings for all to see, then we should be able to meet them halfway, hear them out, and make our decisions. If they do not, intellectual honesty compels you to shun the metric until such time as all required information reaches the offices of public domain.

There should be no rage here, only conclusions made by each of us based on the math, the logic and the reason. Every moment spent mocking, chiding, belittling or cajoling takes away from the important question at play here.

My point about VHS and Beta remains: Which one will you choose? After that, we can resume our flight, put our trays down, recline our seats and move on to the next topic of conversation. If you turn this into a war, you have lost in that instant. This is not a difficult equation, and if you make it personal then you are deliberately muddying the waters and stoking the fires of your own downfall.

This right here is what we call a big fly. I want to write that line out in full, as an adult learner it helps me to retain the information. Ahem. Uncontrolled zone exits leads to a controlled entry only 5.5 percent of the time. 55.5 percent of the time it comes right back in to the Oiler zone.

If you put $55.50 on the counter every 90 seconds and received no goods or service but were left with $5.50, how often would you do it before you started to use the brain God gave you? Of course, this is different, because there are times in a game when an uncontrolled exit or an icing are the best option available. That said, Wheat’s number is shocking, an absolutely miserable piece of math heading for the batter’s head at 102 miles an hour. You don’t fix that, not a helluva lot else that matters.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun show today as we careen toward New Year’s Eve. 10 this morning, TSN 1260 and scheduled to appear:

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. Who should play with 97, why isn’t Benning playing, and the best way to measure power-play success.
  • Guy Flaming, The Pipeline Show. Changes to the Pipeline show, Oil Kings a team with a story, WJ reaction.
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. The Metro Division stomps the guts out of the rest of the NHL, while the Pac-7 is rowing a boat with only one oar.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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JJS

It would be interesting for someone much smarter than I (or is it ‘me’) to evaluate other teams by this metric.

They may be able to break down whether controlled exits are due to a successful system or the talent on the ice – or both.

From watching the Oil, they do appear to struggle with transitions at points in each and every game.

I made a point a number of weeks ago suggesting we don’t have any skilled speed on the boards. All of our horses are down the middle. Much easier for the opposition to shut the middle of the ice down therefore we will continue to struggle getting through the neutral zone with possession.

You can often see our centremen losing steam as the game wears on due to all the heavy lifting required to get the puck from the top of our circles to the opposition blue line.

Great stuff, wheat! My next question for you if you are around is, naturally, “What percentage of Oiler zone exits is controlled vs. uncontrolled?”

Thanks in advance.

Chachi

I don’t see the zone exit stuff that is being done as particularly noteworthy or helpful. If you substituted the phrase “throwing the puck away” for “uncontrolled zone exit” it would be a common sense conclusion to expect that the other team would have a better than 50 percent chance of getting the puck back given they would normally have a man power advantage given the normal positioning of players on the ice. Is it not just common sense that “throwing the puck away” is not the ideal way of getting the puck out of your end?

J-Bo

Chachi,

This is a good point. I might be more interested in controlled offensive zone entries vs uncontrolled. It would be interesting to see how often the place and chase allows for effective possession (a shot or some cycle time) vs a controlled entry to the zone.

Chachi,

You would think so, yet the preponderance of coaches who still rely on D-men who habitually go “off the glass and out” suggests otherwise.

This info would suggest the D-men who have the highest percentage of controlled zone exits to be among the most valuable players to a team. The D-men who are seen as always making the “safe play” of off the boards and out would be among the least valuable.

Yet NHL lineup deployment suggests otherwise in most cases.

Woodguy

Chachi:
I don’t see the zone exit stuff that is being done as particularly noteworthy or helpful. If you substituted the phrase “throwing the puck away” for “uncontrolled zone exit” it would be a common sense conclusion to expect that the other team would have a better than 50 percent chance of getting the puck back given they would normally have a man power advantage given the normal positioning of players on the ice. Is it not just common sense that “throwing the puck away” is not the ideal way of getting the puck out of your end?

Its not common sense to many hockey writers.

They laud a player for “getting the puck out” and ignore (or don’t know/care) that it comes right back into the Oilers zone.

Showing and proving this stuff is more steps to informing all hockey writers.

I interact with a variety of the local MSM and many of them are very interested in this stuff, but aren’t comfortable enough to write/comment using it.

The more we can publish “common sense stats”, the better.

jm363561

Always enjoy the write ups of the players. Have you ever considered including the coach’s (currently head scratching and / or disappointing) performance in these summaries – this would be much more judgmental in the absence of a cloud full of stats? Just a thought.

After the 7-1-0 (14 points) start we have gone at exactly a point a game rate for the last 28 games. A point a game rate for the last 46 games would give us 88. Even if all our key players stay healthy gonna be close. Nuge, Ebs, Pouliot, TMac need to kick in, the PK coach needs a general kicking, and Caggiula needs to be heading South.

Chachi

Woodguy: Its not common sense to many hockey writers.

They laud a player for “getting the puck out” and ignore (or don’t know/care) that it comes right back into the Oilers zone.

Showing and proving this stuff is more steps to informing all hockey writers.

I interact with a variety of the local MSM and many of them are very interested in this stuff, but aren’t comfortable enough to write/comment using it.

The more we can publish “common sense stats”, the better.

Fair enough. The worst thing about Kris Russell is the time and energy that a lot of smart people have put into proving that he is a 3rd pairing defenceman so that they can “educate” the MSM.

Psyche

“This right here is what we call a big fly. I want to write that line out in full, as an adult learner it helps me to retain the information. Ahem. Uncontrolled zone exits leads to a controlled entry only 5.5 percent of the time. 55.5 percent of the time it comes right back in to the Oiler zone.
If you put $55.50 on the counter every 90 seconds and received no goods or service but were left with $5.50, how often would you do it before you started to use the brain God gave you? Of course, this is different, because there are times in a game when an uncontrolled exit or an icing are the best option available. That said, Wheat’s number is shocking, an absolutely miserable piece of math heading for the batter’s head at 102 miles an hour. You don’t fix that, not a helluva lot else that matters.”

This is huge, in my opinion. I have to assume that the Oilers’ braintrust (coaches and management) know and understand the implications of zone exits. Either they are trying to correct it and running into a brick wall with some players. Or they don’t value it too highly on their list of priorities. I’m very curious where they are at with information like this.

Woodguy

Edmonton roared through (work with me here) the first 36 games posting an 18-18 record with six Bettman points, and landed on 42 points (improvement of nine points from last season).

If we go with the W-L-T record that was much better than Bettman’s current version we see:

14-12-10 (then they got 4 Bettman points for winning the OT exhibition or SO exhibition, they lost the exhibitions 6 times)

Woodguy

Chachi: Fair enough. The worst thing about Kris Russell is the time and energy that a lot of smart people have put into proving that he is a 3rd pairing defenceman so that they can “educate” the MSM.

When the MSM stops writing that he’s “the best Oiler Dman” (I have read 4 different writers say that) then maybe we’ll stop.

LT has it right. Staples has it very close too.

He’s a 4/5 (I have him as a 5/6) playing his off side.

The rumblings is that he will be paid like a 2/3 and many locals MSM are urging that in print/pixels so if you belive otherwise I don’t see a problem with making it know.

My issue with the whole thing is the venom. (from both sides)

You can disagree and still drink a beer together.

russ99

Psyche,

As I recall puck possession is considered puck possession in all three zones.

Hockey isn’t played in a vacuum, there are many factors that determine who possesses the puck at any given moment.

To assume that players can affect the play so much to ensure success just because of a good exit is foolhardy. For example, we make a good exit then get pinned at the blueline and lose it. No puck mover on earth can achieve perfection between D-zone exit and O-zone entry. Even Connor loses the puck sometimes.

The other thing is that the idea of mistake-free play in the defensive zone is an oxymoron. The puck goes in many times a game, even for the best teams. It’s limiting mistakes and coverage that gives a goalie a better chance to stop the puck, and even then, sometimes it just goes in regardless of what the goalie does..

Some adherents of advanced stats deal with absolutes, when in a chaotic game with 12 players and a puck affecting the play, this is the exception, not the rule.

So yes, zone exits help, puck movers help, but also defensive-oriented players help. When it comes down to it, other than rare players like Connor, getting the puck out of the d-zone, into the O-zone and getting good chances on net are a team effort.

Woodguy

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
Chachi,

You would think so, yet the preponderance of coaches who still rely on D-men who habitually go “off the glass and out” suggests otherwise.

This info would suggest the D-men who have the highest percentage of controlled zone exits to be among the most valuable players to a team. The D-men who are seen as always making the “safe play” of off the boards and out would be among the least valuable.

Yet NHL lineup deployment suggests otherwise in most cases.

Risk adverse NHL coaches gall me.

They get the least out of their line up.

commonfan29

As a kid who spent a lot of time looking through the Beta section of National Music’s movie rental shelves as it shrank in the mid-’80s, I can attest that the VHS vs. Beta war was intensely fought.

However, one thing to remember about that war is that new technology eventually came along and rendered it a completely irrelevant historical footnote.

commonfan29

Woodguy: Risk adverse NHL coaches gall me.

One of my favourites is when there’s a d-zone face-off with under 10 seconds to go down 1 and coaches put their pulled goalie back in to guard against losing the draw – as if a lost face-off there doesn’t end the game anyway…

Oil2Oilers

“This right here is what we call a big fly. I want to write that line out in full, as an adult learner it helps me to retain the information. Ahem. Uncontrolled zone exits leads to a controlled entry only 5.5 percent of the time. 55.5 percent of the time it comes right back in to the Oiler zone.

If you put $55.50 on the counter every 90 seconds and received no goods or service but were left with $5.50, how often would you do it before you started to use the brain God gave you? Of course, this is different, because there are times in a game when an uncontrolled exit or an icing are the best option available. That said, Wheat’s number is shocking, an absolutely miserable piece of math heading for the batter’s head at 102 miles an hour. You don’t fix that, not a helluva lot else that matters.”

Wheat with the Elton and LT with the Bernie. Making music out of math.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

So how does WheatNoil’s work line up with the discussion the other day on Pittsburgh’s system of “get the puck out as quickly as possible?”

Does this mean Oiler forwards are much worse at recovering the puck compared to the Pens? Do the Pens control their dump outs better ala a place and chase model? Do the conference and division rivals play a role in making either the Oilers or Pens less/more effective?

My intuition says Point 1 above is the likely culprit but in last years SCF my eye test said point two also had merit.

Curious what others think

New Improved Darkness

First street chess observer: Man, his intuition in developing a combination attack at that speed is amazing.

Second street chess observer: Yeah, but he hangs a major piece every third game. Just watch.

———

Chess players talk about “accuracy”.

Accuracy covers a wide spectrum. Some blunders are large enough to drive car-audio sub-woofers. Lidstrom probably played a game or two where his largest error caused Zippy to leave the room, but no-one else noticed.

You get signal all up and down the range.

Boil it all down to one number? Well, you went for looking for trouble—didn’t you?—and now you’ve found it.

———

Barker: Pick a number, any number.

Barker’s mark: Just one?

Barker: If it’s a good one, one should be enough.

Barker’s mark: We paid already, didn’t we?

Barker’s mark’s buddy: Yup.

Barker’s mark: Fuck. We’re so screwed.

———

I was reading about the American education system evaluates teachers, especially in reading instruction. Standardized exam beginning of school year, standardized exam end of school year, teacher assigned the aggregate improvement.

Seems reasonable?

Imagine thirty tubes of toothpaste.

Scenario #1: all tubes carefully squeezed out by an equal amount. (“Careful” means an empty end that could be used to pick locks, as you know if you’re married to one.)

Scenario #2: half the tubes well squeezed, the other half hardly squeezed, but all squeezed from the bottom.

Scenario #3: tubes squeezed any old way; crumpled, folded, and mutilated; but—on average—every tube contains the right amount for the current grade level.

Now these tests only measure the total amount of paste. They don’t give a shit whether the tubes arrive in orderly squeezing condition.

In some districts, a certain percentage of teachers must be fired at the end of the year over this. Sometimes teachers go from best to worst in a single year.

Goodbye, former champion, you’re only as good as your last intake.

Or perhaps this single number system is a bit screwy. Could it be?

———

And here’s where you end up.

Teach Like a Champion: Getting everyone’s attention in class

I just look at those images of pencil porn—thirty little pencils all pointing the same direction, scribbling the same answers to the same questions—and I just think we’re trying to solve the wrong problem here.

I was pretty hardened to the mind-body duality of the educational system by high school. One time my grade eleven math teacher assigned some really dull busy work, and I decided to sit there and write out formal proofs for some modular arithmetic “tricks” I had long known (but never formally verified).

End of class, teacher pulls a surprise: everybody hand in your workbook.

Next day I get a private “WFT?” lecture. Teacher was not impressed. Guess I ruined the flow of his marking block.

Oh, the horror. Math student hands in proofs instead of mindless arithmetic. Admittedly, these were the most trivial proofs you’ve ever seen in your life, but it was a fun half hour. The real question I was trying to answer for myself is what do we gain—if anything—by using base 2×5 (decimal) rather than base 2×2×2×2 (hexadecimal)? Does casting out nines turn into casting out fifteens?

———

Around that time I wrote some code in BASIC on the TRS-80 Level I (with 4 kB of RAM) to perform base conversions, and while I hammering on edge cases, I discovered that base -2 can be used to represent all integers—both the positive and negative kinds—without needing a minus sign.

In C, 0b is prefix for binary.

0b11 = 3

Let’s use 0-b for negative binary.

0-b0111 = 4 + -2 + 1 = 3
0-b0110 = 4 + -2 = 2
0-b0001 = 1
0-b0000 = 0
0-b0011 = -2 + 1 = -1
0-b0010 = -2
0-b1101 = -8 + 4 + 1 = 3

The carry rule is odd, but it turns out base -2 is a basis for all the integers.

And then the light comes on in my head about what basis sets are and why they matter, and all of linear algebra is halfway onto my grok sheet.

Any of this shows up on my exam at the end of the year? Not directly.

Guess I was wasting my teacher’s time after all.

But let’s give it a number. How about—fingers on temples—we give my fuck around an 8.5.

Bruce McCurdy

Oil2Oilers:
“This right here is what we call a big fly. I want to write that line out in full, as an adult learner it helps me to retain the information. Ahem. Uncontrolled zone exits leads to a controlled entry only 5.5 percent of the time. 55.5 percent of the time it comes right back in to the Oiler zone.


If you put $55.50 on the counter every 90 seconds and received no goods or service but were left with $5.50, how often would you do it before you started to use the brain God gave you? Of course, this is different, because there are times in a game when an uncontrolled exit or an icing are the best option available. That said, Wheat’s number is shocking, an absolutely miserable piece of math heading for the batter’s head at 102 miles an hour. You don’t fix that, not a helluva lot else that matters.”

Wheat with the Elton and LT with the Bernie. Making music out of math.

Music Is math, & math is music.

I wonder if we are conflating apples and oranges here to a degree. Dump outs lead to 5.5% controlled entries for, & 55.5% entries against. But that doesn’t tell us how many *controlled* entries against. Maybe Wheat can clarify.

Back when I did my zone exits project during the most recent lockout season, my shorthand for carry out / pass out / dump out was football terminology: run / pass / punt. Typically one involves a change of possession & the others don’t, with exceptions: fumbles and interceptions generally being much worse for the team previously in possession than punts.

Glass

Question: If Klefbomb were to be the primary piece for a RHD coming back, who could you see Chiarelli going after? Who would you personally go after if you HAD to make that trade?

Hilmar

Seems to me that, depending on the situation, firing the puck around the glass can be the right or the wrong play, just like shooting from the point can(opponent charging you chin pads first means terrible time to shoot).

Firing the puck when you have better options is a problem, but so is finding yourself never having other options. A difference from last year, and earlier, as I’ve seen it is more of the former than the latter. To me that means progress and I assume we’ll see less of both as the team gels more and finds better line combinations.

Woogie63

I like the option to sign Russell right now.

1) 2017 UFA are not a good crop,

2) Russell has no leverage, he wants to stay in Alberta, is about the same player that every NHL team passed on this summer.

3) Only he and Sekera have played over 500 NHL games from our group.

4) You need 10 dmen to get through an NHL season.

5) I See Lovejoy money and term in Russell’s future

Confused

Glass,

Trouba

John Chambers

I wonder what % of Erik Karlsson’s zone exits are controlled, and how it stacks up against other top defensemen.

My guess is that Karlsson is head and shoulders above the rest of the leagues blue at that skill.

John Chambers

Glass:
Question: If Klefbomb were to be the primary piece for a RHD coming back, who could you see Chiarelli going after? Who would you personally go after if you HAD to make that trade?

Maybe Tyson Barrie.

I can see the Avs blowing it up in February.

jimmers2

Hi all,

I’m back home in Edmonton for the holidays. I moved away years ago, in fact to NYC just a few months before Messier did… A lot has changed in the Alberta distillery world since then. I was thinking about taking home a bottle of a fine local whiskey or gin and thought that this was the surely the place to find the best advice as to which ones were suitable.

And F_ the Kings! CMD to Draisaitl with the winning goal, while Lucic or Maroon picks Dustin Brown. I’m not picky which one.

Thanks!

Bruce McCurdy

Kris Russell, last 10 games: 0-1-1, -6

Without the PDO gords on his side he’s seemed Pretty Damned Ordinary.

Chachi

Woodguy: Risk adverse NHL coaches gall me.

They get the least out of their line up.

Risk averse NHL coaches think if they pile up the Bettman points they will stay employed longer.

frjohnk

Glass:
Question: If Klefbomb were to be the primary piece for a RHD coming back, who could you see Chiarelli going after?

Demers

Then this site burns down

jimmers2

Chachi: Risk averse NHL coaches think if they pile up the Bettman points they will stay employed longer.

This is, no doubt, true

Glass:
Question: If Klefbomb were to be the primary piece for a RHD coming back, who could you see Chiarelli going after? Who would you personally go after if you HAD to make that trade?

A few of us had this discussion late last night at the end of the prior thread.

You want to stay the course with Klefbom…at least to the 400 game mark and he is not even halfway there.

Hamonic or Demers would see this place burn down.
Barrie makes some sense in terms of changing the dynamic but that is a downgrade in my opinion.
A signed Shattenkirk would work but he has no interest in signing here.

So there is not much out there other than the Dumba/Trouba dead horse.

Chachi: Risk averse NHL coaches think if they pile up the Bettman points they will stay employed longer.

Yes, the issue is more that coaches still seem to not understand that off the glass and out when not under dire pressure is a bad play, like bunting in baseball. There is a time and place for it, but no out and a runner on first is not it.

It took a long time for baseball managers to understand that wasting outs was worse for run probabilities than advancing the runner one base. Now there are times when it makes sense to bunt, no doubt. But not regularly.

Bruce McCurdy

Chachi: Risk averse NHL coaches think if they pile up the Bettman points they will stay employed longer.

Agree with this 100.0%. The Bettman Point has put an actual premium on Risk Aversion. All the smart coaches know it. Which is to say, pretty much all the coaches.

Worst.
Rule.
Change.
Ever.

slopitch

If they sign Russell to a deal 2 years max Im fine with it. Not happy but whatever. Offering Russell a contract and offering him a contract that he’d sign are different as well. Russell doesnt have leverage so if its team friendly its not the end of the world. See how I said the same thing 3 times there?

Lets focus on fleecing the Avs now though shall we… Id love to see something involving Nuge + parts for Duchene+Barrie+Iggy. Avs are gonna bleed money this year. Saving 2 million of his salary has to have some value. Iggy has negative value to them no? Honestly, this team is good despite a few holes. We have 2 years before the McDavid extension. Pitter patter!

Big game tonight. If anyone has 4 tickets to the game for sale could you please email slopitch @ gmail. Thanks!

Oil2Oilers

Bruce McCurdy: Music Is math, & math is music.

I wonder if we are conflating apples and oranges here to a degree.Dump outs lead to 5.5% controlled entries for, & 55.5% entries against. But that doesn’t tell us how many *controlled* entries against. Maybe Wheat can clarify.

Back when I did my zone exits project during the most recent lockout season, my shorthand for carry out / pass out / dump out was football terminology: run / pass / punt. Typically one involves a change of possession & the others don’t, with exceptions: fumbles and interceptions generally being much worse for the team previously in possession than punts.

I like the football analogy, as a turnover being worse than a punt needs to be accounted for, but who are the Elton and Bernie of the Football world?

stush18

Thankfully Russell is #2 in the NHL last year at controlled zone exits. Otherwise our numbers might be even poorer.

judgedrude

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
Great stuff, wheat! My next question for you if you are around is, naturally, “What percentage of Oiler zone exits is controlled vs. uncontrolled?”

Thanks in advance.

That’s behind the paywall 😉

I would also add, what percentage of re-entries is uncontrolled. If an uncontrolled zone exit resulted in an easily recoverable shoot-in (Goalie stops it, D picks it up), that would be OK with me as a coach.

Jethro Tull

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

Hamonic is unfair, if you are inferring he was ever available. I have my doubts he ever truly was.

Now, if you’d have said Petry……..

Glass

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

I agree with that. Klefbomb is probably the closest to becoming a #1 Dman, potential wise. Getting rid of him would be putting all your eggs in the Nurse basket, and we still don’t know enough about him to project him.

Could explain why Chiarelli grabbed Reinhart in the scenario that he had to get rid of a LHD to acquire a RHD, but I don’t know if he was looking that far ahead.

Personally I’d like to see this team be sellers at the deadline, with the exception of buying a RW like Iginla or whatever you prefer. Sell Pouliot, Hendricks, Russell, and Gustavsson.

1. Lander can take Hendricks spot, and has proven he has the ability to.
2. Pouliot has been benched, and will stick out like a sore thumb next year, because he isn’t good enough to win a top 6 role from Lucic/Maroon, and he is too expensive to just stick in your bottom six. I foresee Caggulia as the staple ‘middle 6 guy’ as of next season.
3. Russell is kind of a tricky one. You could run either Davidson or Benning on the 2nd pairing, but if you run Davidson it’s much more likely he gets claimed. Oesterle was great last season, and can step in at the deadline imo.
4. Gustavsson will not get resigned, so I believe it’s important to get something for him and let one of Ellis/Brossoit get NHL time.

I think you still make the playoffs with the adjusted line up above, and I think you should load up on picks to take advantage of teams during the expansion madness/aftermath this coming off season.

Confused

I think a more interesting questions is, with $65,751,310 penned for 19 players next year, what on earth do the isles have as trade-able components for the off-season.

They need to get better, but what can they move?

Similarly, if they don’t make the play-offs, what does Winnipeg do with Trouba this summer?

With CHI inking Pannarin, who must leave — Pokka? would Vegas? would we?

FLA goes 7 + 3 and loses Petro to Vegas……does Chai have a RHD deal with Vegas

godot10

(A) If tracking stats don’t show up in possession stats (or vice versa), one of them is “lying”. Possession stats really don’t lie. Tracking stats may. Godot’s “Dow Theory” of advanced stats. Individual stats and “group” stats must confirm each other to be valid.

(A1) Russell’s possession stats have never confirmed his tracking stats, a classic non-confirmation of his tracking stats.

(A2) I’m fine with signing Russell to one-year deals.

(B) Pittsburgh disrupted hockey last year. Controlled exits and uncontrolled exits are not longer a sufficient categorization. Pittsburgh added a new category. Place-and-chase exits, which are “intelligent” uncontrolled exits, where Pittsburgh D place the puck to open space where they have a better than 50% chance of winning the race to or battle for the placed “dump” out.

godot10

I think the notion of trading Klefbom is as silly as the notion of trading Nurse was a few months ago.

Klefbom is just over 100 games into his NHL career, and is learning, arguably, an entirely new position this year, the “offensive D” of a pairing. For his entire career until now, he was the “defensive D” of a pairing.

spoiler

LT,

Did you trade Pouliot?

Not seeing him up there in the Forwards summary.

godot10

Glass:
NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

Could explain why Chiarelli grabbed Reinhart in the scenario that he had to get rid of a LHD to acquire a RHD, but I don’t know if he was looking that far ahead.

When Chiarelli grabbled Reinhart he not only had no right shot D, but he had no proven reliable left shot D either.

Chiarelli had on the left side Ference, Nikitin, a first year player in Klefbom, an experienced AHL defender in Davidson, and a graduating CHL’er in Nurse.

VOR

Judged rude,

I am thinking back to a class I took in University. It was a grad course in economics focussed on benefit/cost analysis. A brilliant teacher, wish I could remember his name. First graduate level course I ever took. On nice days we’d all skip out and go have class on the lake in Hawrelak Park.

The one exercise I remember is the professor asked us to create a benefit cost analysis for various game states in a sport of our choosing.

That is much tougher than you would think but might apply to uncontrolled zone exits. What is the benefit/cost of not taking the opportunity to dump the puck out versus the benefit/cost of surrendering a zone re-entry of any kind, of uncontrolled re-entry, of controlled re-entry. Then you could advance that analysis to see if getting to the puck quicker and dumping it sooner changed the prior analysis. Then you could start looking for in play anomalies like JC Tremblay or Kris Letang two guys who could/can turn dumping it off the glass into a lethal headman pass (not every uncontrolled exit is uncontrolled by the dman but recovery presumably matters). Like everything about hockey it isn’t simple.

Possibly coaches prefer dump it out defencemen because dumping the puck out improves your odds of winning or getting a Bettman point. Possibly it is easier to coach a dump out system than a controlled zone exit system. While the latter produces far more positive outcomes than the former, but since dump out is better than eating the puck and easier to teach than controlled exit that is what you get on average. Behavioural Economics would predict there is a reward in dumping it out and the person most likely to benefit from that reward is the coach. Though if dmen are less likely to get hurt on a dump out than a headman then maybe the dump out is an example of collective wisdom.

Glass

godot10,

Ah your right. I figured at that time we had Sekera, and Klefbomb was already playing 1st line minutes prior to that… but I may have had my timeline wrong lol

JD_Wry

godot10,

I’m reasonably comfortable going forward with Oscar and Justin and Nikita and Andrew and Mark Fayne.

CM the GM (wearsglasses), March, 2015

Atc-Nate

Eberle. No points in 6 games, 1 goal in the last 16. Let that marinate.

stephen sheps

jimmers2:
Hi all,

I’m back home in Edmonton for the holidays.I moved away years ago, in fact to NYC just a few months before Messier did…A lot has changed in the Alberta distillery world since then.I was thinking about taking home a bottle of a fine local whiskey or gin and thought that this was the surely the place to find the best advice as to which ones were suitable.

And F_ the Kings!CMD to Draisaitl with the winning goal, while Lucic or Maroon picks Dustin Brown. I’m not picky which one.

Thanks!

Fun fact, WhistlePig 10 year rye, which has been getting all kinds of high praise from whiskey people in the US, is actually the same juice as Alberta Premium. It’s their 6 year old rye (aged in virgin oak) that makes up about 50% of Alberta Premium Dark Horse blend, which is then shipped to Vermont, aged another 4 years at their ‘distillery’ and then marketed as an American product.

Chachi

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Yes, the issue is more that coaches still seem to not understand that off the glass and out when not under dire pressure is a bad play, like bunting in baseball. There is a time and place for it, but no out and a runner on first is not it.

It took a long time for baseball managers to understand that wasting outs was worse for run probabilities than advancing the runner one base. Now there are times when it makes sense to bunt, no doubt. But not regularly.

I am not sure that if Todd McLellan told Eric Gryba today that from now on when he is under dire pressure that he is no longer allowed to go off the glass and out that the results would be any good. Part of the problem is the Bettman point and how it encourages conservative coach’s systems and part of the problem is personnel.