G38, 2016-17 CANUCKS AT OILERS

by Lowetide

The Oilers can solve two of their remaining tertiary issues tonight: Addled play on Saturday night HNIC, and lack of killer instinct against lesser teams. We are at a point in the season where each victory stacked on another makes the rest of the trip a little easier, and gives one confidence in the future.

I remember Vancouver Canucks broadcasts in their first years, it was thrilling to have a team in the west. I cheered for Orland Kurtenbach, he was massive and was in the middle of everything. I didn’t develop much of an allegiance to the team, but if I had a favorite during those years it was Don Lever. I always like the players who can score enough to be considered a substantial part of the offense, but also help with the heavy work.

Vancouver went right from expansion team to respectability, I don’t really recall a prolonged period of awful. My expansion article on them expressed as much (wrote it during the lockout). I wish for Vancouver to have a rebuild, but there appears to be no willingness among owner or management. If the club continues along this line, this decade will not end well on the left coast.

RAIN-O, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-4, goal differential +3
  • Oilers after 37, 2015: 15-19-3, goal differential -20
  • Oilers after 37, 2016: 19-12-6, goal differential +10

I am really liking this season. If the Oilers arrive at G75 with a record of 38-24-12 (88 points), I will be over the moon about it. Now, that is a tall order and who knows what tomorrow brings, but it is fun to imagine these things all the same. G38 a year ago was a loss (5-2 to LAK) and marked the date of Edmonton’s 20th regulation loss.

OILERS SCORING, FORWARDS

  • The Oilers are on track to have four of the top 50 scorers in the NHL (among forwards). McDavid and Draisaitl are inside the top 15. That is a fairly unusual development for Edmonton. In 1996,  Doug Weight finished No. 11 in scoring (104 points), Zdeno Ciger finished No. 46 (70 points) and Jason Arnott No. 79 (59 points).
  • Connor McDavid has been a little light in points over the last while (1-2-3 in his last five games) but all that really means is we are about to witness an explosion offensively.
  • Leon Draisaitl is having a breakout season, I am surprised at how many talk about his power-play prowess as if it is a bad thing. The young man has been fantastic, and vital, to this team’s success. I would like to see him pass 2.00/60 at 5×5 (1.85) in order to crown the achievement that is his season in 2016-17.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi has seven assists, all of them first assists. All of them. He ranks No. 2 among Oilers forwards in the category.
  • RNH had a nice game Thursday, hopefully he can push up from his current ridiculous spot (he was No. 55 in scoring among forwards in 2014-15) to something more in line with his ability.
  • The Maroon—Nuge—Draisaitl and Pouliot—Caggiula—Puljujarvi were impressive in the LAK game, I hope both lines cash tonight and gain some momentum as trios.

OILERS SCORING AND DFF, DEFENSE

  • Andrej Sekera will miss tonight’s game, and that is not a good thing. He has been the team’s best overall defender through the first half of the season.
  • Oscar Klefbom is having a good season, while also playing a prominent role and struggling at times. If he can survive this season, one suspects we will see him emerge as a complete defenseman.
  • Adam Larsson ranks No. 2 in even-strength TOI, and No.1 in elite minutes faced (although it is pretty even among the top 4D). I guess this was bound to happen, I like defensive defensemen more than any of you other folks, but this fan is enjoying Larsson’s play.
  • Kris Russell is No. 1 in EV TOI/GM, and if you figure out elites faced/per game, he is No. 1 there too. Whatever his flaws, Todd McLellan runs him heavy and his GF percentage 5×5 is 52.9. I do think the Oilers will sign him, and protect Russell from the expansion draft.
  • Matt Benning is having the best season of any Oilers defenseman. I understand he is third pairing, but everything is coming up golden with him on the ice. At 5×5, the Oilers are getting 53.5 percent of the shots on goal and that total ranks inside the league’s top 30.

Anton Slepyshev is pounding the AHL senseless these days, he now sits at 7gp, 3-6-9 for the season. I expect we will see a recall, although the young Russian may end up being trade bait at this year’s deadline. He looks like an NHL player, and I would quickly add that Jujhar Khaira is NHL-ready, too. Oilers prospects are creating value through their play, something we haven’t seen a lot of over the past few seasons. I think Laurent Brossoit may be the next recall, though.

CAM TALBOT

Cam Talbot has a .925SP in his last 9 games, and a 5-1-3 record. You can see all Oilers performances over the last 10 games here, the number one takeaway for me is that Connor McDavid is going to breakout.

  • Save Percentage: .919 (Ranks No. 14 among goalies with 20 or more appearances)
  • EV Save Percentage: .924 (Ranks No. 13 among goalies with 20 or more appearances)
  • PP Save Percentage: .896 (Ranks No. 9 among goalies with 20 or more appearances)

I would argue he has been slightly above average for the season, your mileage may vary. No matter the opinion, anyone who has seen the Oilers play all of their games this season, can testify that Talbot has to be good in order for the team to get a win. Edmonton, with 19 Ws, is 18-10-5 with Talbot in goal.

https://twitter.com/V2Hero/status/814553005433364480

I expect, at some point, Adam Larsson’s performances will be viewed outside the asset cost, but we are not there yet. V2hero is one of my favorite twitterers, but I think trash is a tad strong in terms of description for Larsson.

I like him in the defensive zone, like him in coverage, and like his nasty streak. He needs to get comfortable (again) with his headman passing, which currently amounts to ‘hit the clock’ lobs into the neutral zone. If he is going to lob the puck, perhaps into an area where the forward can skate into the puck and continue on his sortie.

That said, I like Adam Larsson. Gotta say. If you take away the cost of procurement, he can play on my team any time. I wonder if you feel the same way?

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Colieo87

Happy new years LT, good bye 2016 and a decade of incompetence of oilers managment and hello 2017 and bright lights of post contention baby. ????

treevojo

Wow.

Just checked the odds on the game tonight.

I have never seen the oilers as this big of a favourite.

The times are certainly a changing.

Bring on 2017, a Jagr at the deadline, an Art Ross to finish the regular season, and a playoffs too remember.

hags9k

I feel the same way about Larsson. Really like him. I hope he can be another one who takes his game up a notch in the second half.

I’m going to give tonight’s game the kiss of death and again say blowout.

97, 93, 14, 27 with silly boxcars and heck may as well get Benning on the board on HNIC.

9-1 Oil.

Victoria Oil

LT – thanks for another year of great writing. Happy New Year to you and all of your readers.

Apologies for going off-topic. I know there was some discussion of David Staples at the Cult of Hockey, recently. He has written an excellent piece on TruPerformance, the analytics company of Brad Werenka. I think this is required reading for anybody interested in analytics.

Some highlights of the piece: TruPerformance utilizes 17 analysts who track every game and rate every event by each player. Each game takes 9 hours, on average, to analyze. Werenka claims that TruPerformance has a 0.81 correlation to winning, compared to about 0.33 for Corsi.

TruPerformance also likes Kris Russell. (But I hope Chiarelli does not use this data to justify paying him $4 million x 5 years, or something silly like that – especially given our need to resign Draisaitl and McDavid in the near future).

ashley

I think you nailed it on Larsson in this post today. He is a very valuable member of the D corps. Dmen that don’t score much are always underrated. They are of immense value in the cap-constrained construction of a team, however.

We will get a lot of quality defense from Larsson over the next decade at a great price allowing us to spend dollars on good players elsewhere on the roster. He is still only 24 years old, merely 7 months older than Klefbom (who we all agree is a baby still), still shy of prime for a Dman.

The price was dear. I wish it cost less too – much as I do with all transactions where I am on the buy side. At some point you have to take a chance and make a deal.

Admiral Ackbar

Great GDB Lowetide!

My girl knows all about your blog and rolls her eyes when I talk about the latest post. I’m sure she appreciates that I’m so passionate about hockey.

From my family to yours: Happy New Year!! ???

Jethro Tull

Remember when the Hall/Larsson trade went down and i said that it was very important to remember that Larsson didn’t trade himself for Hall? Well, if not, take that on board now.

As a point of conversation, nobody at my workplace follows advanced stats. Larsson is their favorite d man. This doesn’t mean a goddamn thing, before some of you roll your eyes, except for they like his quiet efficiency and lack of drama.

treevojo

Anyone that calls Larsson trash is either a drama queen screaming for attention or does not know how to value defensive defenseman.

I only see upside for Larsson.

Larsson is fine now and will get better with time. He has to adjust teams, coaches, defensive partners, opposition teams, cities, playing styles. How long does it take you to get settled in a new city when you move? Now imagine having to do that under the spotlight and a microscope and do it at the highest level against pro opposition where the last 2% counts for everything.

He will be fine.

buck yoakam

Happy New Year LT!!!…I would like to thank you for your input all year long…It is required reading for me daily!…It appears the oil are starting to take their success seriously and are not letting these gimme games get away, that is part of the balance you write about….I have a feeling that if and when we make the playoffs a player such as pouliot will become a great asset and I fear we might lose him before that happens…just a thought…thanks again…Go Canada @ the spengler!!!! Go Canada @ the juniors!!!and lets make sure yvr leaves our town down and out tonight!!

Material Elvis

treevojo:
Anyone that calls Larsson trash is either a drama queen screaming for attention or does not know how to value defensive defenseman.

I only see upside for Larsson.

I think the fans who hate him were expecting him to be Erik Karlsson or OEL. Since he isn’t the best, then he’s awful.

jasontheschoolteacher

My favorite quote about the play of Larsson comes from 97, “He is not fun to play against.” Despite the analytics against Larsson and Russell why can’t we just like 2 hard working team guys who make our defence better. Perfect they are not…but I cannot help myself from cheering and liking these blue collar NHL guys!!! Happy New Year Lowetide!!! My New Year wish….cheer for your players more instead of treating them like numbers….it is way more fun!!!!

DBO

Great hockey day. Oil can make push for best start in a long time and canada vs USA this afternoon. Sweet.

The first few weeks of January will be interesting. Will they sign Russell? Do they move a left handed NHL dman when they do? Staples has interesting article at the journal about Klefbom for Barrie.

Also another great article about different analytics measure. Not a big analytics guy myself, but it made a ton of sense and measures seemingly more tangible things in regards to what each player does individually .
http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/analytics-expert-says-kris-russell-of-edmonton-oilers-is-underrated-and-one-of-nhls-top-defensive-d-men

Paints Russell in better light then standard Corsi. And gives a fair assessment of the Hall-Larsson trade (elite winger for good defensive dman with low offence)

Sekera-Larsson
Russell-Barrie
Nurse-Benning
Davidson (if he is not claimed in expansion)

Interesting balance. Smallish lineup, but closer to playoff d, with QB for the PP in Barrie.

Eastern Oil

Westchester Oil,

The article is interesting and has certainly set a fire to the Twitter verse, but David is still hammering on raw Corsi which annoys me to no end.

I disagree with truperformance’s outcomes in Russell but agree that there is a lot to the game we can measure.

That being said, any advanced stat follower knows to look at more than just Corsi. Full stop.

Either way, I really don’t get the hurry to sign Russell with expansion draft, Nurse, Davidson, Benning, need for RH PP guy, etc. Unless he’s cheap and unprotected!

treevojo

pocession charge: I think the fans who hate him were expecting him to be Erik Karlsson or OEL.Since he isn’t the best, then he’s awful.

You don’t get the Taylor Hall of defenseman by trading Taylor Hall.

Defense>>>>>>>>winger

jonrmcleod

I see the “Is Russel any good?” debate is raging once again on Twitter. That and the Hall-Larsson trade debate are killing some of the joy of this season. (THE OILERS ARE FINALLY WINNING! DIDN’T WE SAY WE’D BE HAPPY WHEN THAT FINALLY HAPPENED??!!) Maybe I should just stay off Twitter.

Jethro Tull

jonrmcleod:
I see the “Is Russel any good?” debate is raging once again on Twitter. That and the Hall-Larsson trade debate are killing some ofthe joy of this season. (THE OILERS ARE FINALLY WINNING! DIDN’T WE SAY WE’D BE HAPPY WHEN THAT FINALLY HAPPENED??!!)Maybe I should just stay off Twitter.

I’m sure there’s a German word covering the physcological aspect of refusing to feel joy at good results.

The phenomenon also occurred after the second world war, when people who survived the blitz would often say that what the country needs is a good old war. After six years of praying for peace and seeing the worst things.

season not played

The nerve of Chiarelli. Where does he get off assembling a hockey team that can roll into LA and beat them at their own game?

what is this team play and cohesiveness garbage?

hard to play against, smard to play against!

scoring goals multiple ways is for the birds, that doesn’t provide enough offense to win, I need high flying line rushes and fancy looking sorties resulting in nothing

I need numbers on paper.

Wonder what it would take to pry Taylor Hall out of New Jersey?

jm363561

First of all a Happy New Year to all LoweTide readers and posters and a sincere thank you to LT for maintaining this community which is enjoyed by so many of us.

I also read David Staples excellent article on TruPerformance. I am somewhat agnostic on hockey stats – I can see how they can work with the eye test but to my eye there are just too many variables, including how the data is captured, to draw definitive conclusions from many stats.

However, I like Wheat’s analysis of Oiler D men looking at specific exit and entry data, and TruPerformance seems to be this type of analysis on steroids – this seems to be the way to go and a definite step change. Shame we will never see the results.

As someone who likes Larsson, Russell and reading David Staples, woot woot. (First time I have ever done that).

EDIT: David’s article makes little reference to Corsi and the TruPerformance system seems to be the anti-Corsi.

Eastern Oil

Lowetide,

Agreed, and well put LT.

Eastern Oil

season not played,

You used a lot of words to either say nothing or prod the bear.

I love watching my team win and will cheer for them like hell no matter what. I applaud Chiarelli for his good moves and will criticize him for bad ones.

Unwashed Oilfan

Hey LT. I finally had an opportunity to leave the hinterlands and experience society again. Took in the Kings game, love the new arena and loved the game. I also visited a company that you had an advertising link to on your site, Direct Workwear. I’m a consultant for a midstream O&G company and still shocked by the prices of workwear in northern BC and Alberta (mostly BC because fuck them ‘nucks). $100 for a pair of Nomex 3 coveralls. $50 for hoodies. I suggest everyone reading who works in O&G and has to buy your own gear (kinda miss the days of EnCana and having everything supplied) take a trip to Direct. I even name dropped LT as the website where I saw the ad and the owner gave me an FR toque for free. Thanks for the advertising LT!!

treevojo

season not played:
The nerve of Chiarelli. Where does he get off assembling a hockey team that can roll into LA and beat them at their own game?

what is this team play and cohesiveness garbage?

hard to play against, smard to play against!

scoring goals multiple ways is for the birds, that doesn’t provide enough offense to win, I need high flying line rushes and fancy looking sorties resulting in nothing

I need numbers on paper.

Wonder what it would take to pry Taylor Hall out of New Jersey?

Based on their season over season record it would probably cost you Adam Larsson.

Ryan

I do think the Oilers will sign him, and protect Russell from the expansion draft.

Ripping the bandaid off eh?

Material Elvis

Russell is not a cause for concern. He’s an actual NHL defenseman and a veteran. You can’t have enough of these (Oilers have already dressed 10 Dmen this year). Does everyone recall the 10-15 Oilers Dcorps? Lots of great examples of below replacement-level defenders on those teams.

jake70

I think the “lack of enjoyment” over the wins is a good chunk of the fanbase is fragile, with the potential of an 8 or 10 game losing streak lurking in the back of their minds. I am enjoying them more because they are still happening for starters, and 97s lack of points during this time is encouraging, as silly as that sounds (admittedly knowing he is influencing the game by drawing the best shutdown players on the other team).

J-Bo

Westchester Oil:
LT – thanks for another year of great writing. Happy New Year to you and all of your readers.

Apologies for going off-topic. I know there was some discussion of David Staples at the Cult of Hockey, recently. He has written an excellent piece on TruPerformance, the analytics company of Brad Werenka. I think this is required reading for anybody interested in analytics.

Some highlights of the piece: TruPerformance utilizes 17 analysts who track every game and rate every event by each player. Each game takes 9 hours, on average, to analyze. Werenka claims that TruPerformance has a 0.81 correlation to winning, compared to about 0.33 for Corsi.

TruPerformance also likes Kris Russell. (But I hope Chiarelli does not use this data to justify paying him $4 million x 5 years, or something silly like that – especially given our need to resign Draisaitl and McDavid in the near future).

I read the article too. It is excellent! I truly believe this type of analysis is where the future is heading. Corsi holds clear value but honestly pales in comparison to this kind of in depth analysis. Maybe the most revealing was the comparison of which players were rated highest by the different metrics. As pointed out in the article, the numerous LA Kings at the top of the Corsi list indicates the strong team and systems influence on the players score and reveals how flawed Corsi is as a predictor of individual results.

I like Corsi as an initial indicator. A low Corsi and especially a low corsi rel are red flags and the opposite are good arrowz. I think it is more indicative however of how a player fits into their teams system, how they play with other players, and how well a team is playing rather than a players individual contributions to the game. As we have witnessed first hand, it is not overly indicative of how a player will perform on a new team, with new line mates, and new systems and is effected profoundly by the level of competition a player is playing against.

Darnell Nurse is a great example of this last point. His stats were terrible last year. This indicated he was playing over his head at level of opposition faced and that the team struggled overall to get the puck going in the right direction. People began freaking out thinking this was a strong predictor of future percormamce. It clearly was not. Improve the teams defense, board battles, cycle play, etc… and move a young defenceman to facing lesser competition and less time on ice and voila he looks pretty good.

I hope in time we move Corsi to it’s rightful place and use more in depth analysis to judge individual performance.

Lowetide: I don’t think it bodes well that Vlasic comes out looking average, though. Bad sign.

I may have misunderstood but I don’t think it said Vlasic was average. It said he made so few errors defensively he was elite on that side, but his lack of contributions to offense make him in that tier below the elite D, (but better than average).

Then the comparison with Russell is that Russell is high event. He makes tons of mistakes but then also makes tons of high value defensive plays. Net-net, that winds up in a plus-minus of defensive value that equals Vlasic’s low event plus-minus.

He is the “Bill Ranford” of defense then…remember how Billy would flub stopping the puck behind the net then make the spectacular save to save his own ass?

Anyway, my personal take is that on D if I were coaching I would much rather have Vlasic than Russell because I could sleep better at night. Also, I mean, if you are making 10 mistakes a game but also making 15 good plays, you are at plus 5 events but it shows you are running around playing D like a chicken with its head cut off a lot. On the other hand if you make 3 mistakes a game and only 8 positive plays it is the same plus 5 events but you are spending way less time without the puck and causing less stress for the coach and less chance for a total breakdown.

Finally I will say that these aren’t Staples’ ideas to claim, they are Werenka’s. I applaud David for exploring new concepts, but I agree that I wish he would not reduce current analytics to the lowest common denominator. A more worthy comparison would pit TruPerformance against a wide variety (basket) of metrics.

Kinger has made the finance comparison before, but probably the valuation metric everyone is most familiar with is P/E right? Price to earnings ratio. But that does not explain why a high growth stock with a long period of never turning a profit, for example, Amazon, was a good investment. Sales were growing so rapidly that it was a good bet. So there are countless different metrics used to derive value in financial models. Price to earnings, price to book value (P/B), EV/EBITDA (enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization), etc. etc.

None of these measures is the be all and end all. But one other thing to keep in mind is that in a vacuum tech is going to look expensive and banks cheap because banks tend to have a P/E ratio, for example of about 10x and a P/B ratio of about 1x. Tech on the other hand is closer to 20x P/E and many multiples of P/B. Tech is higher growth, but less asset intensive than the banks that have deposits, bricks and mortar buildings, etc. So we look at metrics of a tech company against peers, and a bank against its peers. It does not make sense to compare a biotech company to Royal Bank.

This is like using CorsiRel instead of Corsi. So we would get more out of TruPerformance if we saw how it stacks up vs. a whole host of RELATIVE measures that take into account playing style differences.

I also still maintain that on the defensive side of things I think low event should be prioritized higher over high event. By that measure I think Larsson’s value would improve. Nonetheless, a 91 overall score vs 67 overall score suggests what we have suspected: Jersey won the value trade hands down. I still like Larsson and wish him well.

DBO

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

Well said. And people should read it not as a Staple thing. It’s another metric, the results are very interesting when it compares the top 10 in Corsi vs. Their metric and tracking. Passes the eye test to me. At least it may give us better insight as to what Chiarelli is tracking .it seems to follow his moves , at least as a part of it.

Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville

I came here today most curious to see what the general thoughts were regarding the Oilers making a claim on Jaro Halak who was waived.

Astonished no one has said anything about it!

I think it’s moot now or we would have heard something but still interested in what others thoughts were? LT? Woodguy? Others?

He’s pricey, but man we’d have a nice one-two punch in the goalering dept.

fifthcartel

I wonder if they would move Fayne + Gustavsson for Halak but that would block Brossoit. Talbot/Halak could be a great tandem.

JimmyV1965

Can anyone verify the predictability of Corsi? Is if really less than 40%? If that’s the case, I think this should be very troubling to everyone.

stush18

Receptor Antagonist,

There are only 8 teams in the NHL that can take on halal this year.

The oilers are one, but we have bonuses to worry about.

Suspect any trade made sends salary back. Otherwise no team will want to grab him.

On that note, I’ve read a lot about mark fayne being dealt for halal. Why not pouliot?

Dino

RE: Larsson

Has nobody noticed his play improve massively since the 3 day break? From the Tampa game forward he’s been back to his reliable/aggressive defensive game. Clearly fatigue was starting to set in for Larsson. He still has some things I would like to see him improve but he’s a valuable piece of the team in my opinion and I rather have him on the roster than not have him. If you think about it, who is replacing Larsson as 1 RD and playing the most minutes against the elite opposition if he were to get inured? Benning? Too raw. Russell? Too limited. Gryba? Too slow. Larsson is important to this team regardless of what you may think of the trade.

NativeNotFrench

Adam Larsson can play on my hockey time anyday of the week. Totally agree that he has had his entire life thrown in a washing machine and still comes every night looking like a top 4 dman. The lob passes to nowhere have to stop but I believe that will come as confidence increases.

I have a three month old son who loves hockey already, wouldn’t turn away from the screen if the house was on fire and he only does that for hockey and I am so looking forward to watching this team with him. Today I am watching Canada-USA with the boy on my lap and then going to a friends to watch the oil game with them. Appreciate this blog so very much. and all the reasonable and civil debate about our beloved Oilers. Happy New Year to all of you!

Hall Awaits

Does V2Hero even like the Oilers or is he just a miserable cuss who hasn’t seen the sun in weeks?

Here’s hoping they sign Russell just for him.

--hudson--

Brad Werenka – that’s a name from the past. A hobey baker finalist Oilers draftee that never panned out.

I wonder if outside Edmonton the value on Russell has changed any or has the market grown. Who would be the bidders to expedite an early offer or is the idea to provide security to KR?

With the expansion draft on June 21, you would hope Chia could hold off until June 22. At the same time KR may decide to wait to see what happens on July 1

Ryan

pocession charge:
Russell is not a cause for concern.He’s an actual NHL defenseman and a veteran.You can’t have enough of these (Oilers have already dressed 10 Dmen this year). Does everyone recall the 10-15 Oilers Dcorps?Lots of great examples of below replacement-level defenders on those teams.

Well, it would be the consequences of signing and protecting him that’s a concern.

I.e. You expose Davidson to the expansion draft, not to mention Maroon as well.

If there is some sort of gentleman’s agreement, it would make more sense to sign him in free agency, so you can protect Davidson…

Or you could go 7-3 and protect a bunch of forwards.

mumbai max

I see MA Pouliot scored at the Spengler. Comeback?
Happy New Year to all.

stush18

Ryan: Well, it would be the consequences of signing and protecting him that’s a concern.

I.e. You expose Davidson to the expansion draft, not to mention Maroon as well.

If there is some sort of gentleman’s agreement, it would make more sense to sign him in free agency, so you can protect Davidson…

Or you could go 7-3 and protect a bunch of forwards.

Sign Russell.

Protect 7-3-1.

Expose Davidson and Russell, and let them choose between whoever they feel is better. At a 2 yr, 3 mill AAV (roughly), I’d like to think the more famous Russell gets chosen.

Either way, you have you 3ld for next year.

wheatnoil

Re: the Staples article

The problem and debate here has less to do with corsi vs non-corsi. The problem is two-fold: one Staples has made his opinion about corsi quite clear and takes many opportunities to shoot down that line of analysis in a manner that has ruffled some feathers (I don’t he would disagree with that). For this reason, every time he posts something new in that regards it carries the weight of all past conversations which fuels the response.

Two, and more importantly, this is not a debate between corsi and other methods of analysis. This is a debate of public vs private data. There has been plenty of tracking work that has been accepted and encouraged. For example, if you’re not following Ryan Stimson on Twitter, you’re missing out. His work on passing data has been widely accepted, discussed and debated largely because it is all public and can be veted and analyzed. Whether it’s Truperformance or SportsLogiq or Mathletes, all of these companies keep their data within a black box and have a vested interest in selling it and how it is superior to anything in the public sphere.

Now, that doesn’t mean their data and work isn’t valuable. It may even be superior to the public sphere. The problem is that we don’t know and there’s no way to know. I think that’s really what sparks most of the debate beyond the fact that Staples posted it.

stush18

I just read the staples article.

Interesting stuff. Don’t think I could ever get behind it fully, but it def has its merits.

I would prolly be a lot more into it if staples hadn’t written the article. NOBODY with any sense uses straight raw corsi alone to evaluate players. He’s more or less misrepresenting what analytics is trying to prove, and using the backlash and support to rise in notoriety.

Just my two cents

Ryan

stush18,

Make no mistake, when the Oilers sign Russell, he’ll have a NMC.

Ryan

stush18,

I’m in the middle of my am workout… but right off the hop, Werenka loses a lot of credibility when he puts Russell on the tier of Pickles.

That really flunks the smell test for his type of analysis.

wheatnoil

My concern about a Russell extension has more to do with expected term and cap hit. He’s being played like a top pairing defender in terms of time on ice. So I wouldn’t be too surprised if he’s paid as one. Maybe $5M x 5 years or so.

Of course, I don’t have any evidence or insight as to what the Oilers might offer. Just seems they really like him.