G38, 2016-17 CANUCKS AT OILERS

by Lowetide

The Oilers can solve two of their remaining tertiary issues tonight: Addled play on Saturday night HNIC, and lack of killer instinct against lesser teams. We are at a point in the season where each victory stacked on another makes the rest of the trip a little easier, and gives one confidence in the future.

I remember Vancouver Canucks broadcasts in their first years, it was thrilling to have a team in the west. I cheered for Orland Kurtenbach, he was massive and was in the middle of everything. I didn’t develop much of an allegiance to the team, but if I had a favorite during those years it was Don Lever. I always like the players who can score enough to be considered a substantial part of the offense, but also help with the heavy work.

Vancouver went right from expansion team to respectability, I don’t really recall a prolonged period of awful. My expansion article on them expressed as much (wrote it during the lockout). I wish for Vancouver to have a rebuild, but there appears to be no willingness among owner or management. If the club continues along this line, this decade will not end well on the left coast.

RAIN-O, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-4, goal differential +3
  • Oilers after 37, 2015: 15-19-3, goal differential -20
  • Oilers after 37, 2016: 19-12-6, goal differential +10

I am really liking this season. If the Oilers arrive at G75 with a record of 38-24-12 (88 points), I will be over the moon about it. Now, that is a tall order and who knows what tomorrow brings, but it is fun to imagine these things all the same. G38 a year ago was a loss (5-2 to LAK) and marked the date of Edmonton’s 20th regulation loss.

OILERS SCORING, FORWARDS

  • The Oilers are on track to have four of the top 50 scorers in the NHL (among forwards). McDavid and Draisaitl are inside the top 15. That is a fairly unusual development for Edmonton. In 1996,  Doug Weight finished No. 11 in scoring (104 points), Zdeno Ciger finished No. 46 (70 points) and Jason Arnott No. 79 (59 points).
  • Connor McDavid has been a little light in points over the last while (1-2-3 in his last five games) but all that really means is we are about to witness an explosion offensively.
  • Leon Draisaitl is having a breakout season, I am surprised at how many talk about his power-play prowess as if it is a bad thing. The young man has been fantastic, and vital, to this team’s success. I would like to see him pass 2.00/60 at 5×5 (1.85) in order to crown the achievement that is his season in 2016-17.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi has seven assists, all of them first assists. All of them. He ranks No. 2 among Oilers forwards in the category.
  • RNH had a nice game Thursday, hopefully he can push up from his current ridiculous spot (he was No. 55 in scoring among forwards in 2014-15) to something more in line with his ability.
  • The Maroon—Nuge—Draisaitl and Pouliot—Caggiula—Puljujarvi were impressive in the LAK game, I hope both lines cash tonight and gain some momentum as trios.

OILERS SCORING AND DFF, DEFENSE

  • Andrej Sekera will miss tonight’s game, and that is not a good thing. He has been the team’s best overall defender through the first half of the season.
  • Oscar Klefbom is having a good season, while also playing a prominent role and struggling at times. If he can survive this season, one suspects we will see him emerge as a complete defenseman.
  • Adam Larsson ranks No. 2 in even-strength TOI, and No.1 in elite minutes faced (although it is pretty even among the top 4D). I guess this was bound to happen, I like defensive defensemen more than any of you other folks, but this fan is enjoying Larsson’s play.
  • Kris Russell is No. 1 in EV TOI/GM, and if you figure out elites faced/per game, he is No. 1 there too. Whatever his flaws, Todd McLellan runs him heavy and his GF percentage 5×5 is 52.9. I do think the Oilers will sign him, and protect Russell from the expansion draft.
  • Matt Benning is having the best season of any Oilers defenseman. I understand he is third pairing, but everything is coming up golden with him on the ice. At 5×5, the Oilers are getting 53.5 percent of the shots on goal and that total ranks inside the league’s top 30.

Anton Slepyshev is pounding the AHL senseless these days, he now sits at 7gp, 3-6-9 for the season. I expect we will see a recall, although the young Russian may end up being trade bait at this year’s deadline. He looks like an NHL player, and I would quickly add that Jujhar Khaira is NHL-ready, too. Oilers prospects are creating value through their play, something we haven’t seen a lot of over the past few seasons. I think Laurent Brossoit may be the next recall, though.

CAM TALBOT

Cam Talbot has a .925SP in his last 9 games, and a 5-1-3 record. You can see all Oilers performances over the last 10 games here, the number one takeaway for me is that Connor McDavid is going to breakout.

  • Save Percentage: .919 (Ranks No. 14 among goalies with 20 or more appearances)
  • EV Save Percentage: .924 (Ranks No. 13 among goalies with 20 or more appearances)
  • PP Save Percentage: .896 (Ranks No. 9 among goalies with 20 or more appearances)

I would argue he has been slightly above average for the season, your mileage may vary. No matter the opinion, anyone who has seen the Oilers play all of their games this season, can testify that Talbot has to be good in order for the team to get a win. Edmonton, with 19 Ws, is 18-10-5 with Talbot in goal.

https://twitter.com/V2Hero/status/814553005433364480

I expect, at some point, Adam Larsson’s performances will be viewed outside the asset cost, but we are not there yet. V2hero is one of my favorite twitterers, but I think trash is a tad strong in terms of description for Larsson.

I like him in the defensive zone, like him in coverage, and like his nasty streak. He needs to get comfortable (again) with his headman passing, which currently amounts to ‘hit the clock’ lobs into the neutral zone. If he is going to lob the puck, perhaps into an area where the forward can skate into the puck and continue on his sortie.

That said, I like Adam Larsson. Gotta say. If you take away the cost of procurement, he can play on my team any time. I wonder if you feel the same way?

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Woodguy

Georges: Did you see my first post on this? They can have that high a correlation if their metric is a proxy for PDO. Werenka’s saying players own their PDO results, fancystats folks say they don’t.

I’d have to see what Werenka is tracking to see if its just the nuts and bolts of PDO.

Would explain a lot.

Hockey Project

oilersfan

I am convinced the solution is either3 point system for regulation wins, or , a better solution would be 2 points for regulation wins,1.5 for extra time wins, and 1 for a regulation tie. I don’t see the team who ends regulation with the tie as the problem at all, since that is the way it has always been.

Do we know for sure that the 3 point win would reduce the amount of games where teams are playing to get to OT? Various soccer leagues adopted it, hoping to reduce tied games, but did it have the long term desired effect? I don’t know, and wouldn’t want to assume either way.

I remember how, for so long, folks wanted the centre line to be gone, because of all the offense it would bring. But, a look through the league’s history would have shown them that it didn’t really make sense as a theory, as league-wide offense had been wildly high and low with that strip of paint across the middle of the ice.

oilersfan

striatic: Teams that lost in overtime used to get no points. That’s what people are talking about when they refer to the loser point or Bettman point.

Overtime started in 1983, playing 5×5 for five
Minutes. If nobody scored it ended in a tie. If one team scored they got two points the loser got zero. I don’t have the stats in front of me but I bet 95% of those games ended in ties.

In 1999-2000 they started having 4×4 with two points for the winner and one for the team that had a tie after regulation … But with no shootout, many game still ended with ties.

After the lockout they started having the shootout with the bonus point to the winner and a single point for the team that had tied in regulation.

So It still seems to me the teams getting all the extra “wins” are the ones walking away with free points from gimmicks in overtimes and shootouts, not the teams who end with a regulation tie.

I am convinced the solution is either 3 point system for regulation wins, or , a better solution would be 2 points for regulation wins, 1.5 for extra time wins, and 1 for a regulation tie. I don’t see the team who ends regulation with the tie as the problem at all, since that is the way it has always been. The problem is awarding a team an extra point for a tie with a gimmick afterwards and acting as if that is as legit as a regulation time win.

I maintain what I said in the original post… The Bettman point is for the gimmick win not the overtime loss which is really a point for a regulation tie, which has been in place for 100 years. It’s not the false losses that screw up the math , it’s the false “wins”.

striatic

oilersfan: Since the first lockout with the advent of overtime and the shootout, the winner gets an extra point and the loser one point. The “Bettman point” is not for the team that “loses” the gimmick overtime or shootout, since that point for a tie has always existed, it’s the team that wins the gimmick that is getting the Bettman point for winning a gimmick.

Teams that lost in overtime used to get no points. That’s what people are talking about when they refer to the loser points or Bettman points. Points that losing teams wouldn’t have otherwise gotten. While technically teams that lose in the shootout and not overtime would have received a point for a tie, it is still a situation where a losing team still wins a point which losing teams had never received in the past.

oilersfan

I would like to point out an often quoted error here and other places regarding the “loser” point or “Bettman point”…

For every game that has ended in a tie since the beginning of the Nhl, a team got a point for the tie.

Since the first lockout with the advent of overtime and the shootout, the winner gets an extra point and the loser one point. The “Bettman point” is not for the team that “loses” the gimmick overtime or shootout, since that point for a tie has always existed, it’s the team that wins the gimmick that is getting the Bettman point for winning a gimmick.

The oilers are 4-7 in extra time this year. Vancouver is 9-3. If the games all ended in ties this season the oilers would be three games over .500 instead of 7 games over. Right now Vancouver is two games under .500 but if there were no Bettman points added for overtime or shootout wins Vancouver would be 11 games under .500. I don’t know how to look up all the teams record after three periods but I suspect the oilers are worst at 4-7, and Vancouver is likely the best, and the Bettman point has t benefitted the oilers much at all this season since if all we had was ties we would likely still be in the plAyoffs and most other teams would be much worse off.

The oilers need to look at why their extra time record is so bad, and I suspect some of it is poor player choices in the shootout.

striatic

LostBoy:
Want this, want that.

I wanted it all, too, sitting here in CST with my 9 year old son.

Take the point.Seriously, take the point.Tonight wasn’t what you’d want, but take Connor late and take the point

It’ll do.

Happy New Year!

Happy New Year!

In town and was at the game with my wife tonight. We live in the U.S. and essentially never go to Oilers games so my wife was very disappointed with the loss. Truthfully, I wasn’t. Hell of an effort to salvage a point here. McDavid and Talbot stellar. Glass half full.

Eberle and Lucic not worth their cap hits of late, but McDavid almost singlehandedly makes that rather irrelevant. Larsson/Klefbom were fine. Russell cannot play that many minutes and Gryba .. or dear god Gryba.

The team seems destined to salvage enough Bettmans to make the playoffs and then make a quick exit, which is a heck of a lot better than I’ve grown accustomed to.

Confused

Happy New Year everyone

JD_Wry

Have they announced the Rustle 5 x $5M extension with NMC yet?

stevezie

Happy new year you maniacs

JOFA

digger50: This team does not turn on itself anymore, they win or lose as a team. Doesn’t matter who brings the goal, and they do not look sideways at Nuge cause his stats are down.

So you go check the stats and you look for someone to blame. But perhaps it’s time to take a cue from the team and start supporting each other. It’s the type of thing we look for and ask the team to do. Yet we do not this as fans.

So critique is fun, I get it, but wake the f up yourself.

Hahaha well that was way too easy

*changes bait casts another line*

Gret99zky

Happy New Year all y’all.

And may 2017 be a lot different than 2007-2016.

LostBoy

Want this, want that.

I wanted it all, too, sitting here in CST with my 9 year old son.

Take the point. Seriously, take the point. Tonight wasn’t what you’d want, but take Connor late and take the point

It’ll do.

Happy New Year!

digger50

JOFA:
DIGGER 50

1. Stop trolling
2. Check season stats
3. After stats check. go directly to Spotrac;)

This team does not turn on itself anymore, they win or lose as a team. Doesn’t matter who brings the goal, and they do not look sideways at Nuge cause his stats are down.

So you go check the stats and you look for someone to blame. But perhaps it’s time to take a cue from the team and start supporting each other. It’s the type of thing we look for and ask the team to do. Yet we do not this as fans.

So critique is fun, I get it, but wake the f up yourself.

Keep calm (your t.1.t.s.) and carry on (enjoying this team and the new year, everyone!) Stay safe.

verite

Oilers pure garbage
Still no defense
Every Canucks defenseman infinitely better than garbage than Oilers dressed
Chiarelli is incompetent and MacLelland plays garbage incessantly, see Gryba and Hendricks
But maybe the Oilers can for Horvat a real man as a hockey player, instead of the wimps the Oilers dress
Gut this team asap
Fire Chiarelli, fire MacLelland
Trade the garbage asap

JOFA

DIGGER 50

1. Stop trolling
2. Check season stats
3. After stats check. go directly to Spotrac;)

kinger_OIL

– So Russell had TOI highest again. Save games where there are lots of PP, in at least 50% of games, he gets most TOI.

– So is the coach dumb, or are the public stats just not capturing what he doesÉ

– This is not Jultz with MacT calling him Norris…

digger50

hunter1909:
Way to go, Mister $6. million-Nugent-Hopkins.

(Overtime shooter)

Really not called for. You want to pin the loss on the last of shooter?

flyfish1168

nelson88:
Lander may not score much but they could certainly use him to win some faceoffs.

Lander is so under appreciated. 4 points last evening game and not even a star.

digger50

JOFA:
Nuge & Ebs wake the fuck up. McLellan finally learning to not play Looch in OT, but fucking it all up with no McDavid in shootout. Bewildering.

They both had good games. Your post is bewildering.

hunter1909

Lowetide,

Apologies.

Having not been following the team for the past 3 weeks, it’s so easy to fall back on regular scapegoat player types. I had wanted to moan about how Eberle flubbed a few opportunities, each causing good Canuck chances, but no, I stick to type.

Professor Q

Gret99zky:
Professor Q,

I don’t think they do that anymore. Just shovels.

Interesting. They did it in the Denmark-Switzerland game yesterday so I guess that was on my mind.

JOFA

Nuge & Ebs wake the fuck up. McLellan finally learning to not play Looch in OT, but fucking it all up with no McDavid in shootout. Bewildering.

Zelepukin

Talbot carried us through to the extra point, but I put that result on the coaches.

4th line was atrocious.
Lucic-Ebs- McD experiment is not working at all. Yes, Maroon has been great with Drai and Nuge so I can see Todd wanting to give that line as much time to do their magic but by the middle frame neither line was getting much done.
Puj & Drake need more ice-time. Both were effective and creating chances. Puj exactly reminds me of Drai his first year. To a tee. You can see the skill all there and the potential is going to be amazing, he just needs time to build on the weight of his body, being able to really own guys down low and bring his foot speed up/endurance up.
Gryba had a horrible game.
Larsson I thought had a great game. Lots of, oh let me show you how to beat the crap out of the Sedins, said by no Oiler ever.

hunter1909

Gret99zky: RNH has a much wider shot.

RNH has become like the plain Jane sister that everyone tries to avoid on Saturday night.

hunter1909

admiralmark:
Call me crazy but for the life of me I cant understand why McD is not one of your top 3 shooters in every single shootout for the rest of his career? Ebs too…

McLellan probably thinks Letestu is from Saskatoon.

Ice Sage

LOL Oilers drinking their own bath water and still can’t figure out how to beat low-talent, trap-heavy teams… here’s wishing a big dose of panache and creativity to TMac for 2017!!!!

Gret99zky

So lucky to get a point. McDavid in a shootout makes no sense. RNH has a much wider shot.

admiralmark

Call me crazy but for the life of me I cant understand why McD is not one of your top 3 shooters in every single shootout for the rest of his career? Ebs too…

Confused

Again no McDavid on the shootout, really Todd!

hunter1909

It was a fair result.

Everyone’s a homer around here.

JD_Wry

Hrudey has nothing else to talk about.

Professor Q

Very strange indeed that McDavid wasn’t picked.

hunter1909

Way to go, Mister $6. million-Nugent-Hopkins.

Gerta Rauss

shitty

Canucks were the better team tonight

Minister D-

The Oilers didn’t deserve to win that hockey game, and they didn’t.

D

Good game. Oilers got a lot of Bettman points in December and they will really matter four months from now.

Suntory Hanzo

Boo

Gret99zky

Professor Q,

I don’t think they do that anymore. Just shovels.

Suntory Hanzo

Need this win. Wife visiting friends in Regina. Kids ant mom n laws. Was on way to party and had to turn back at Aldergrove due to crazy snow. Now back in Abbotsford alone for the first time in my life for New Years. It’s weird.

Professor Q

Any reason why the ice wasn’t zambonied?

Gret99zky

Talbot earns a ⭐️with that OT.

DevilsLettuce

How many nails does that kid take diving into those pallets?

Suntory Hanzo

That was entertaining a 3×3 I’ve seen. Lots of 5 star saves on both ends.

Zelepukin

Lowetide:
Pretty entertaining hockey game.

Became an entertaining game. Nothing but frusturation for the first 57min.

D

That overtime was PURE entertainment.

Suntory Hanzo

Markstrom has earned his pay so far in OT