G42 2016-17: OILERS AT SENATORS

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers ran up against a hot goalie last night, and it took a long time to solve him and win the day. As has been the case for much of this year, the emerging team found a way to overcome obstacles that would have cost them dearly just one year ago. Up next: Capital City!

MY WAY, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-5, goal differential +3
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in January 2017: 2-1-0, goal differential 0
  • Oilers after 41, 2015-16: 17-21-3, goal differential -23
  • Oilers after 41, 2016-17: 21-13-7, goal differential +10

This team is +33 in the goals, +12 in the points and times are good. G42 one year ago was a loss, 3-2 to the Tampa Bay Lightning who scored three in the final frame for the win.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • On a night like last one, if the stats run like this and the team wins we can forget about the rest, the rest being Eric Gryba’s wobble on the Wood goal. Holy crap he got walked.
  • Russell—Larsson were 17-5 in 17:52, including a cool 8-0 with the McDavid line (6:10) and 5-3 in 4:19 with the effective Nugent-Hopkins trio. Went 4-3 in 4:13 against Hall—Zajac—Parenteau, 7-2 in 6:18 facing Cammalleri—Henrique—Palmieri. It was just a good damned night, folks.
  • Sekera—Benning went 20-11 in 16:42, and Benning the Good scored his first NHL goal. They were 6-0 in about two minutes with the Letestu line, but also 6-4 in 5:37 with the Nuge and 8-5 in 6:13 with McDavid. This pairing went 4-3 in 4:55 facing Hall—Zajac—Parenteau, 9-5 in 6:51 against Cammalleri—Henrique—Palmieri.
  • Klefbom—Gryba went 17-9 in 12:13, this is the de facto third pairing. A cool 10-4 with McDavid in 6:10, also 7-4 in 2:58 with the Caggiula line. They were 4-5 in 5:22 against Hall—Zajac—Parenteau, meaning this duo faced Hall most often. Went 6-3 against Cammalleri—Henrique—Palmieri and that is a good line.
  • Cam Talbot was solid in the win, stopping 19 of 20, .950.
  • Stats via NHL.com, NaturalStatTrick and HockeyStats.ca.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Hendricks—Letestu—Lander played a lot, important on an evening that ends with a flight and a game the following evening. Played most with the Russell—Larsson pairing, went 8-1 against the Sergey Kalinin line. McLellan used Hendricks and Letestu on the PK, but not 51. I do not understand this, perhaps you can explain.
  • Maroon—McDavid—Draisaitl has that Cashman-Esposito-Hodge look to it, there were shifts last night where the NJD defense looked like Arnold Schwarzenegger on Mars without the helmet. My goodness this trio can play. Went 7-4 against Zajac and 13-5 against Henrique, 5-0 against poor Kalinin.
  • Pouliot—Caggiula—Eberle showed signs of chem, going 14-6 together. Played equally with the three pairings, and faced the Zacha line (9-5 in 7:06) most of all.
  • Lucic—Nuge—Kassian line also played well, I would actually suggest this was the second best line on the night (behind 97). Faced Zajac (5-6 in 7:07) and Henrique (3-3 in 4:04) most of the night, I thought they were solid to excellent.
  • Hall with Cammalleri and Palmieri went 9-8 together. Hall went 3-5 against McDavid, 6-6 against the Nuge. No. 9 has no help, he has been banished to the second division. Neil Young’s Helpless should have played on a loop for he and the goalie.
  • Mark Letestu is 8-10-18 at the halfway point of the season. Can you name the last fourth-line center who posted 40 points for the Oilers? I cannot. Now, he isn’t technically a fourth liner, but Letestu’s offense this season is one of the best stories of the year.

MATTHEW CAIRNS

I am unable to find much on Matthew Cairns move from the Fargo Force (17gp, 0-4-4 in the first half) of the USHL to Powell River Kings (2gp, 0-1-1) of the BCJHL, but it did happen over Christmastime and we are here. This does happen (the BC team had to make a deal with his former tier two team, the Georgetown Raiders) in hockey, and often involves usage and playing time. As far as I know, Cairns remains committed to Cornell University, and this transaction does nothing to derail that goal.

STREETS OF BAKERSFIELD

It sounds like last night was a fantastic event, and that a darn good hockey game happened after the rains ended (!!!). I am delighted to re-post a report from the game that was kindly dropped in the comments section:

  • Muletrain97: Condors win!!! They tie it up with about 2min to in 3rd, and of all people Reinhert with the partial breakaway winner in OT! Khaira played strong and heavy two-way hockey, as did Scott Allen Taylor Beck, and Anton Slepy. Brossoit settled down and was solid in net. D-wise, Osterle can fly in this league and is very noticeable. Tried to get an interview with Khaira but got kicked out of area just before it ended!! All in all, a great time in Bakersfield at the Outdoor Classic! Peace!

Awesome, and appreciated Mr. Train. Griffin Reinhart is an interesting player as we approach the expansion draft. Most fans are down on his potential, but I have spoken to various hockey people who believe there is a chance that the Vegas Golden Knights grab him in the draft. Why? George McPhee is drafting a team in one weekend, and needs to grab a few players who have a lot of track left in his career. Let’s say GR is a No. 5 defenseman his entire career—for Vegas, solving problems with longer term answers has appeal. It is going to be interesting.

TRADE CHATTER

  • Bruce Garrioch: If anyone is looking to move a defenceman give Bruins GM Don Sweeney a call in the next couple of days. The word is he wouldn’t mind making a deal for a blueliner as well and the name of forward Ryan Spooner as possible trade bait is still out there. Unfortunately for Sweeney, there’s several teams looking for help on the back end. Source
  • Bruce Garrioch: The Oilers are looking around for some depth at forward. The club is without Darnell Nurse for an extended period and Tyler Pitlick is gone for the season. Source

The Oilers have defensive depth, and if everyone was healthy one could at least discuss a Brandon Davidson for Ryan Spooner deal. Right now? I don’t see it as reasonable, simply because there isn’t enough depth on the club. Darnell Nurse is still weeks away, but maybe things change by the deadline.

OH THOSE BOXCARS!

After last night, we are at the midway point of the season. It is a fun time for boxcars, because we can double them and think about the impact of these seasons. Here are some of my favorites:

  • Connor McDavid 82gp, 28-64-92
  • Leon Draisaitl 82gp, 28-40-68
  • Milan Lucic 82gp, 20-32-52
  • Patrick Maroon 82gp, 28-14-42
  • Mark Letestu 76gp, 16-20-36
  • Andrej Sekera 78gp, 8-28-36
  • Oscar Klefbom 82gp, 12-16-28
  • Matt Benning 70gp, 2-17-19
  • Cam Talbot 74gp, 40 wins, 2.44 and .920

Means nothing of course, but fun to dream. Edmonton plays a huge game tonight, do they use Jonas Gustavsson in net? A win this evening would really set them up nicely for the rest of January.

 

 

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Truth

Woodguy:

Shot attempts, shot attempts!

In fairness to both groups, when the Oilers play their goalie that allows 4 more goals per 100 shots than their starting goalie (and the opposing goalie) I don’t think it’s shot attempts or heart we should be concerned about.

Signing Gustavsson is #3 on my list of poor decisions made by this management team to date.

Woodguy

leadfarmer: There’s plenty of clueless eyes people and stats people both.

I’m now both!!

Professor Q

VOR,

I use puns all the time. I don’t find they hinder communication at all…

russ99

LOL.

Hockey can be an unpredictable sport.

Sometimes you win all the numbers battles and still lose, and sometimes you get crushed by the numbers, your goalie stands on his head and you sneak in a few goals and you win.

The crux is this: numbers have much to tell us, as do the eyes when you look at what makes teams successful, but to assume one is only valid and dismiss the other is foolhardy.

No team wins every game, so I’m happy with this trip after the jitters of the Blue Jackets game. We continue to play like this overall we’ll be celebrating playoff dates in April.

The schedule is favorable for us now, as long as we start getting consistent results at home, which has been a bit of an issue.

February looks a bit rougher, other than the many days off, March looks favorable. The last three weeks against the Pacific look to be the gauntlet we need to run to keep our playoff spot.

leadfarmer

Woodguy: I’ve been told repeated by multiple posters on this site that shots don’t matter, just wins.

They’ve converted me.

Just win baby.

There’s plenty of clueless eyes people and stats people both.

Woodguy

Chachi:
con·de·scend·ing
ˌkändəˈsendiNG/
adjective
having or showing a feeling of patronizing superiority.

Exactly.

I don’t think I’m patronizing at all.

I get called out for being an abrupt asshole because I’m not patronizing.

spoiler

Lowetide: If you learn the secret handshake, you will come running back!

Is it a right-handed secret shake or a left?

Gret99zky

Woodguy:
The Oilers lost the hockey game.

This is what the spreadsheet guys will never understand about hockey.

Shot attempts, shot attempts!

They lost on the scoreboard and that’s all that counts.

Their goalie had a bad game and they didn’t bail him out!!

They didn’t want it more when it counted and where it counted, in front of the net.

Spreadsheet boys can’t measure heart and the Oilers had none or else they would have put their goalie on their back and won it for him.

Goals is what matters.

Wins is the only stat that count.

You get goals and wins with effort and heart.

Who cares about the shots?

Just the computer boys, not the men who bleed for the game and their team mates.

Unsustainable!

Chachi

Lowetide: Well, sometimes the Webster’s is in the other room!

Well there seemed to be some dispute about what it meant and I actually prefer the Oxford dictionary.

Pescador

Chachi:
con·de·scend·ing
ˌkändəˈsendiNG/
adjective
having or showing a feeling of patronizing superiority.

Holy fuck that guy made that comment Before 10:35 am.
Lowetide.ca: minimum 12 hours of schtick for any misrepresentation. Haha

flea

Gotta think Gustavsson will get sent down after that game. He should never start another game. The positives, Oilers were the far superior team tonight. Keep it rolling Oilers!

Chachi

con·de·scend·ing
ˌkändəˈsendiNG/
adjective
having or showing a feeling of patronizing superiority.

VOR

Woodguy,

My NewYear’s resolution, well one of them, is to avoid the use of rhetorical tricks. I got the idea from re-reading Bertrand Russell’s brilliant “Sceptical Essays”. In a book of such precise thinking and sparkling prose that it still resonates today many decades after it was published Russell makes the point that every time we use a rhetorical device we lose the opportunity to communicate. We trade sharing information and influencing opinion for scoring points in a rhetorical joust of no importance. I realized I needed to change my own focus on debating for a focus on communicating.

My other resolution was to stop swearing in front of the dogs. Or more accurately at the dogs. Today that resolution got sorely tested when my Pittie, who I am training to herd, stopped responding to commands and started chasing my 8 bulls around their winter pasture. It gave me no choice but to follow him, mercifully I had my racing snowshoes on. It took me an hour to get close enough to attach his long line. Then another hour using one of the Blue Heelers to round the Bulls up and bring them back to the hip barn so I could check they were all fine. All the time the weather was getting colder and colder.

I am sure my attempts to disavow rhetorical tricks will get challenged as much if not more than my ban on swearing as the year rolls on but a man’s reach should exceed his grasp or what is a heaven for.

Professor Q

Genjutsu: CRL format: this just makes more sense to me.

Listing by order of positional importance.

I vote this becomes the new standard everywhere.

Please. No more. We’ve only recently converted Lowetide to the proper positional-relational layout.

No more need for household cleaning products.

Woodguy

leadfarmer: I don’t get the purpose of your comment but the eyes and stats guys were in agreement that Gustavsson was a headscratching decision

I’ve been told repeated by multiple posters on this site that shots don’t matter, just wins.

They’ve converted me.

Just win baby.

Georges

The number of times CMD strips their guys of the puck in the offensive zone and gets it back to our guys with time and space. Wowza.

The Oilers are a really good team when they’re behind. They’re the fourth best on CF% and best on GF% at 5v5 when trailing.

I wish we had a goalie whisperer.

CMD-Maroon-Drai may be one of the best lines in the league. Can the rest of the forwards play well enough to keep them together? Nuge-Lucic-Kassian at -2 (-3 with the empty net) probably means the end of Nuge-Lucic-Kassian.

I wish we had the 2016-17 Anders Nilsson.

vangolf

Woodguy,

#doubledown

Genjutsu

SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
square_wheels,

Yup agreed, head over to Europe Monstie, your done here.

Two good games from Pouliot in a row and Eberle had his chances tonight

Benning looked beautiful out there tonight.

McDavid-Drai-Maroon are gonna go supernova

Can’t be too mad at the team after this, it’s an L but they come back to Rogers playing some decent hockey.

CRL format: this just makes more sense to me.

Listing by order of positional importance.

I vote this becomes the new standard everywhere.

Woodguy

vangolf: I have no idea why someone would call you condescending.

I don’t think that word means what you think it means.

Cassandra

ASkoreyko:
I really think the top 9 lines are pretty solid from what I have seen. I think each line has a nice balance and was playing pretty good hockey.

I would be happy with the 4th line when they swap Hendricks for Khaira.

Benning with another monster game, this kid was found money and now gives the Oilers the appearance of Dman depth!

Well, the first line is dominant, but the second line is being dragged down by Lucic’ general terribleness, and while Eberle and Pouliot are excellent, Caggiula is just along for the ride.

Is there a person alive who thinks Lucic has played well this year? We just have to face the fact that the Oilers are playing with six million less than every other team, because Lucic brings adds absolutely nothing. For all the debate about Larsson and Russell, they at least are actual NHL players.

Zelepukin

pocession charge:
Okay no more complaints.Let’s talk about that Draisaitl through-the-legs pass that he made.I mean, c’mon!That was incredible.

At least ANA lost. Tuesday, massive game.

leadfarmer

Woodguy:
The Oilers lost the hockey game.

This is what the spreadsheet guys will never understand about hockey.

Shot attempts, shot attempts!

They lost on the scoreboard and that’s all that counts.

Their goalie had a bad game and they didn’t bail him out!!

They didn’t want it more when it counted and where it counted, in front of the net.

Spreadsheet boys can’t measure heart and the Oilers had none or else they would have put their goalie on their back and won it for him.

Goals is what matters.

Wins is the only stat that count.

You get goals and wins with effort and heart.

Who cares about the shots?

Just the computer boys, not the men who bleed for the game and their team mates.

I don’t get the purpose of your comment but the eyes and stats guys were in agreement that Gustavsson was a headscratching decision

Jaxon

Gustavsson, WTF!?! Terrible. Oddly, in Chiarelli’s defence, many of the alternatives to Gustavsson that all of us armchair GMs wanted are having just as bad a season as Gustavsson. It was a tough summer for acquiring a successful goalie. At least we didn’t pick up Enroth!

Unsuccessful UFA signings:
Peters 3GP .900
Gustavsson 6GP .893
Hutton 14GP .890
Khudobin 8GP .885
Zatkoff 10GP .884
Enroth 6GP .872

Unsuccessful Traded Goalies:
Elliott 20GP .889
Campbell (Not in NHL)
Bernier 16GP .897

Successfull UFA signings:
Johnson 23GP .922
Reimer 17GP .916
Montoya 12GP .911

Successful Waiver Claims:
Condon 20GP .919 (waivers)

Successful Traded Goalies:
Nilsson 13GP .926

Another common blog backup goalie favourite:
Neuvirth 10GP .867

Pescador

vangolf: I have no idea why someone would call you condescending.

Or sarcastic for that matter

jp

That really is it for Gustavsson, no?

A full month between games, and a 0-2-0 5.05 .792 line in those 2 games. Coach absolutely doesn’t trust him, and he’s done nothing but reinforce that lack of trust.

LB might get the call, but has just a 3.11 GAA and .887 SV% in his last 10.

Who’s out there that could be had, and is worth having?

vangolf

Woodguy:
The Oilers lost the hockey game.

This is what the spreadsheet guys will never understand about hockey.

Shot attempts, shot attempts!

They lost on the scoreboard and that’s all that counts.

Their goalie had a bad game and they didn’t bail him out!!

They didn’t want it more when it counted and where it counted, in front of the net.

Spreadsheet boys can’t measure heart and the Oilers had none or else they would have put their goalie on their back and won it for him.

Goals is what matters.

Wins is the only stat that count.

You get goals and wins with effort and heart.

Who cares about the shots?

Just the computer boys, not the men who bleed for the game and their team mates.

I have no idea why someone would call you condescending.

ASkoreyko

I really think the top 9 lines are pretty solid from what I have seen. I think each line has a nice balance and was playing pretty good hockey.

I would be happy with the 4th line when they swap Hendricks for Khaira.

Benning with another monster game, this kid was found money and now gives the Oilers the appearance of Dman depth!

Material Elvis

Okay no more complaints. Let’s talk about that Draisaitl through-the-legs pass that he made. I mean, c’mon! That was incredible.

Material Elvis

Bob Cole got the players wrong as often as Paul Romaniuk did last night. Bob also forgot to call the goals and scoring chances for the Oilers at times. Sportsnet production needs a reset.

Material Elvis

JDï™: That’s who I thought it was at first too – they have similar voices in my opinion.

Me, too.

JD_Wry

Gerta Rauss: And idiot posters online calling him Greg Millen..!!

That’s who I thought it was at first too – they have similar voices in my opinion.

frjohnk

Woodguy:
The Oilers lost the hockey game.

This is what the spreadsheet guys will never understand about hockey.

Shot attempts, shot attempts!

They lost on the scoreboard and that’s all that counts.

Their goalie had a bad game and they didn’t bail him out!!

They didn’t want it more when it counted and where it counted, in front of the net.

Spreadsheet boys can’t measure heart and the Oilers had none or else they would have put their goalie on their back and won it for him.

Goals is what matters.

Wins is the only stat that count.

You get goals and wins with effort and heart.

Who cares about the shots?

Just the computer boys, not the men who bleed for the game and their team mates.

Smarten up you “eyes guy”

Professor Q

JDï™: That’s a mistake I’ve heard a lot of PbP people make, and I think the 83 yr old Cole did a better job in that regard than Galley – who kept calling Chris Wideman Dennis.

There was one who kept calling Nuge some other name. McDavid or Draisaitl or Letestu or something?

geowal

I’m just glad Talbot is well rested now….

flyfish1168

Sens blocked 17 of our shots. We need to get around the block better.

Chamucks

SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

Benning-Sekera is actually really great to watch. Very strong rookie season for Benning continues.

oscarmike

Jonas did the same thing in Philly. Just couldn’t make key saves
Stupid call on Todd when he pulled the goalie
Eberle still can’t score

Awesome goal by Drai,That line is unbelievable.
Maroon with the deuce.
Benning fighting

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Woodguy,

Condon made five or six big saves in the 3rd all from less than 10ft out

Saw it live, it was a buzz saw, Sens looked a hair above New Jersey

McDavid owned Karlsson’s soul

Gus sucked and it cost them

No need to slag the team

I’m curious to see if OilersNerdAlert matches up with what the eye test saw

I’m guessing it will and that marks two games in a row of very strong play

Benning Sekera is a thing

Defense activated again

(Need to save points for my “Some Thoughts” post tomorrow morning)

Gerta Rauss

JDï™: That’s a mistake I’ve heard a lot of PbP people make, and I think the 83 yr old Cole did a better job in that regard than Galley – who kept calling Chris Wideman Dennis.

And idiot posters online calling him Greg Millen..!!

Woodguy

The Oilers lost the hockey game.

This is what the spreadsheet guys will never understand about hockey.

Shot attempts, shot attempts!

They lost on the scoreboard and that’s all that counts.

Their goalie had a bad game and they didn’t bail him out!!

They didn’t want it more when it counted and where it counted, in front of the net.

Spreadsheet boys can’t measure heart and the Oilers had none or else they would have put their goalie on their back and won it for him.

Goals is what matters.

Wins is the only stat that count.

You get goals and wins with effort and heart.

Who cares about the shots?

Just the computer boys, not the men who bleed for the game and their team mates.

JD_Wry

JAG-041: Called Pouliot McDavid once,

That’s a mistake I’ve heard a lot of PbP people make, and I think the 83 yr old Cole did a better job in that regard than Galley – who kept calling Chris Wideman Dennis.

Seismic Source

What did he do to get benched? How do you move that contract?

Chamucks:
This game is going to make the impending Bobby Ryan trade even more difficult to swallow.

Ryan was 14 minutes and -2 tonight as well.

Seismic Source

And it won’t cost us anything to find an improvement. There’s so many better out there.

square_wheels:
SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

Good chance Gusto is waived this week, there’s no way Tmac is willing to play him during the final stretch.

Good news is he’s cheap.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

square_wheels,

Yup agreed, head over to Europe Monstie, your done here.

Two good games from Pouliot in a row and Eberle had his chances tonight

Benning looked beautiful out there tonight.

McDavid-Drai-Maroon are gonna go supernova

Can’t be too mad at the team after this, it’s an L but they come back to Rogers playing some decent hockey.

norm_klassen

Gussys done he isnt even replacement level anymore. Where is scrivens when w3 need him:)

JAG-041

ashley:
Nice adjustment by Ottawa in the second intermission.They recognized that they were outmatched, but lucky to have the lead and managed the game pretty well in the third.

Though we did have a few good chances.I thought the Draisaitl drive to the net was the best with Condon down and out, reaching way to barely get his stick on it, but Bob Cole didn’t even call it as it happened (he was talking about something else) and the crew produced no replay.It’s like it didn’t even happen.Great chance, great save.

Love ole Bob Cole, but he has no idea what’s going on anymore. Called Pouliot McDavid once, called Klef Lucic… I’ll bet he had the names wrong around half the time.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

ashley,

Ottawa had 7 shots after the 15 minute mark of the first.

They didn’t manage a thing they got speedbagged

Chamucks

This game is going to make the impending Bobby Ryan trade even more difficult to swallow.

Ryan was 14 minutes and -2 tonight as well.