THE WEIGHT

by Lowetide

The job of goaltender is wildly unfair. In my town, the kid who played goalie was both loved and maligned, loved because when he stopped pucks the town team won—and maligned when he didn’t stop anything. The only thing worse than being the goalie? The time one of the forwards ripped a shot off the back of the goalie (Kenny Meier was the goalie) during warmup and the stopper landed in a heap, unable to play. Now who is going to play net? My goodness that shooter was unpopular, I think he went to school in Lashburn after that incident. (I kid, but barely).

Goaltenders at the NHL level generally have an established level of ability. When they don’t play a lot, and are struggling, or done, it makes for some very uneasy and sleepless nights. I have all kinds of time for Jonas Gustavsson today, he was in a tough spot and it did not go well. I am honestly less patient with the general manager, today.

Maybe he got some of that advanced statery that doesn’t tell the truth, or maybe he had a feeling it would work or had a plan for that position to cost a certain amount of cap space. Whatever the reason, enough. Fix it now. Make the call. You owe it to your team.

HOW DID THAT GO IN? YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-5, goal differential +3
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in January 2017: 2-2-0, goal differential -2
  • Oilers after 42, 2015-16: 17-22-3, goal differential -24
  • Oilers after 42, 2016-17: 21-14-7, goal differential +8

It was a weird night, from Leon’s reaction to his goal (hilarious) to the fourth goal against (not hilarious) in a night where the team had enough to grab a point despite it being their third game in four nights. It was a successful road trip, but if this team misses the playoffs by a point or two, this is one of the games I will remember as opportunity missed.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Russell—Larsson went 19-6 in 14:31, second night in a row where the numbers were strong. Russell made a big mistake on the PK, Larsson had an assist and was more effective to my eye. Got back with Klefbom for 3:13 (1-1), too. Went 9-1 against Hoffman—Pageau—Pyatt, 7-1 against Smith—Brassard—Stone, 8-5 versus Dzingel—Turris—Ryan.
  • Klefbom—Gryba went 20-8 in 13:49 together. I keep mentioning this, but Oscar moves up the ice exactly like Serge Savard. It is uncanny. The long and winding road sortie. I love them, and as he gets older Oscar is going to say to hell with this noise and drive to the net, too, I bet. Anyway, they were 9-1 with McDavid. Went 6-1 against Hoffman—Pageau—Pyatt, 2-5 against Smith—Brassard—Stone, 5-3 versus Dzingel—Turris—Ryan.
  • Sekera—Benning were 17-11 in 13:04 together, so much puck moving ability here it is amazing. They went 13-4 with McDavid, I think this pairing might be the best duo to run with the 97 line. Thoughts? Went 8-5 against Hoffman—Pageau—Pyatt, 11-8 against Smith—Brassard—Stone, 3-0 versus Dzingel—Turris—Ryan.
  • Jonas Gustavsson was not good, but it is unfair to expect him to play once a month and be at his best. The Oilers have to find a solution that works.
  • HockeyStats.ca, NHL.com and NaturalStatTrick.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • The real reason to remember this period might be the Maroon—McDavid—Draisaitl line emerging. Another fabulous evening, three goals, five points and a complete nightmare all evening for the Sens. Connor McDavid was 25-3 against Erik Karlsson at 5×5, while also going 25-3 against Erik Karlsson at 5×5! Biblical.
  • Hendricks—Letestu—Lander had a good night to my eye, important they could be used 5×5 two nights in a row. I am not against this line staying together until the trade deadline.
  • Lucic—Nuge—Kassian went 15-14 (Lucic) and 9-14 (Kassian) with Nuge. I like 93 a ton, but the trio went -3 and RNH got knocked down a bunch again. I think maybe the WHC robbed him of some energy, hope the break helps him. This is not a checking line, not really, and they played the Brassard line straight up (12-12), but minus three is not acceptable.
  • Pouliot—Caggiula—Eberle went 16-8, I thought Eberle had his best chance in ages (breakaway) but could not cash. This line won the Corsi battle, but posted just two shots on goal. Lots of things not happening, Edmonton needs another center if Leon stays on RW.

LAST 10 GAMES

  1. Connor McDavid 10gp, 2-7-9
  2. Leon Draisaitl 10gp, 2-7-9
  3. Patrick Maroon 1gp, 8-1-9
  4. Andrej Sekera 8gp, 0-6-6
  5. Mark Letestu 10gp, 2-3-5
  6. Matt Benning 7gp, 1-3-4
  7. Milan Lucic 10gp, 2-2-4
  8. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 10gp, 3-1-4
  9. Jordan Eberle 10gp, 0-3-3
  10. Eric Gryba 10gp, 1-2-3
  11. Matt Hendricks 9gp, 1-1-2
  12. Zack Kassian 10gp, 0-2-2
  13. Oscar Klefbom 10gp, 1-1-2
  14. Anton Lander 3gp, 0-2-2
  15. Tyler Pitlick 2gp, 1-0-1
  16. Adam Larsson 10gp, 0-1-1
  17. Drake Caggiula 10gp, 0-1-1
  18. Brandon Davidson 7gp, 0-1-1
  19. Taylor Beck 2gp, 0-0-0
  20. Benoit Pouliot 9gp, 0-0-0
  21. Jesse Puljujarvi 5gp, 0-0-0
  22. Kris Russell 10gp, 0-0-0
  23. Cam Talbot 9gp, 2.04 .932
  24. Jonas Gustavsson 1gp, 4.01 .765
  25. Source

The Oilers have been a one line team during much of these 10 games, while going 6-2-2 (and that is a terrific record, despite leaving a point on the table last night).

LOOCH

Milan Lucic has been consistent offensively this year compared to last, although (as we have discussed) the offense is coming from the power play this year. Here are his splits from last year, in terms of boxcars, and what he has posted so far in 2016-17:

  • 2015-16 Pre All Star: 48gp, 12-17-29 (.604 points-per-game)
  • 2016-17 Pre All Star: 42gp, 10-16-26 (.619 points-per-game)

One of the things I see quite often about Lucic is that he is being gifted opportunities, with McDavid and on the power play. It took quite a long time for Todd McLellan to move off the McDavid—Lucic tandem, but as a duo they were solid (McDavid scored 5×5 2.19/60 with Lucic, and they were 54.2 Corsi for 5×5 together). McDavid way from Lucic is even better (3.44/60 at 5×5 and a Corsi for 5×5 of 55.2), but I think we can agree it is likely we see them back together at some point in the season. Ebbs and flows folks.

  • 2015-16 Post All Star: 33gp, 8-16-24 (.727 points-per-game)
  • 2016-17 Post All Star:

Lucic played with Anze Kopitar much of last season, and should be able to perform well with RNH if he isn’t with McDavid. That said, and we have discussed this before, the big man must improve his 1.09 5×5/60 scoring total. That meager output ranks Lucic No. 277 out of 375 NHL forwards who have played 200 or more minutes.

I am not anti-Lucic, in fact this blog was happy when he signed, and from where I sit the only one that consistently points out things like his strong Corsi with or without McDavid. However, the big man needs to fix the 5×5 scoring.

Photo by Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved

THE GOALIE SITUATION

I think we have reached a point where Peter Chiarelli has to address this issue. Surely the only reason to delay it is pure stubbornness by the general manager. The coach rarely plays him, the fans are openly worried on his gameday starts, this is not good. I think Mr. Gustavsson is suffering from not playing, and it is unfair to send him out there once a month to be fed to the lions. We can never really know if a coach and general manager disagree on specific things, but the backup goalie handling has been mighty curious this year.

Peter Chiarelli solved that situation very well in year one, grabbing Anders Nilsson in a small but important trade. I may be the only one who has confidence he can do it again, but I have confidence he can do it again.

In the meantime, bringing up Laurent Brossoit makes sense to me. He has struggled lately, but the sheer number of AHL sorties flown by this player (114 AHL games) makes him qualified to be the backup goalie. Give the AHL net to Gustavsson and Nick Ellis until the deadline, and give some starts to Brossoit as required until a replacement can be found.

I think we all can agree that a coach getting stubborn on a player is one thing, but a general manager getting stubborn on a goalie the coach rarely plays is another. Peter Chiarelli must fix this, losing a playoff spring because of the backup goalie is noxious on the face of it.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A full boat on the show today, as everyone gets rolling after the Christmas holidays. 10 this morning, TSN1260 and scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. The playoff race in the Eastern Conference is as tight as a drum, and the Pacific Division could send five battalions to the front this spring.
  • Andy McNamara, TSN4Downs. The home teams won, and now we are on to the magical weekend in the NFL where New England finds out who they play in the AFC final.
  • Jason Gregor, TSN 1260. The backup goalie and the Jesse Puljujarvi questions surely have an answer soon.
  • Sunil Agnihotri, Copper & Blue plus The SuperFan. We will chat about the week gone by and the one to come, and about Lucic and the hottest Oiler line in many moons. Does it need a nickname? McML? MCD? Don’t know.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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stevezie

The idea that the oil would be screwing either JP’s life or his development by sending him to Finland is baffling and baseless.

Bruce McCurdy

Woodguy,

I think your estimate of 36,000 shots per season is off by a factor of 2. There are 1230 games per year featuring about 60 shots each, or if you prefer, 2460 team-games times ~30. Either way, something approaching 75,000 shots.

rickithebear

Frojohnk:

Sather told NYR reporters that a trade for Talbot was arranged at the 14-15 deadline.
It centered around the Hemsky asset and an asset to be acquired in a petry trade.
Lundquists injury issues prevented the trade.
MacT completed the petry trade acquiring the other asset needed.

Setting in motion the trade to be completed at the draft.

Mact was replaced but retained in the org.
Sather sought better asset count for Talbot at the draft.
Only similar offers showed up.
Sather stated that since MacT was still with the org.
MacT made the asset commitment.
Sather offered PC the deal before he moved from the Gm position.

On HF board the NYR fans were pissed.

I will never give PC credit for MCdavid
MacT won the lottery!
person would have to be the biggest Cl……. F….. not to select him.

and

I sure as heck am not crediting PC for Talbot!

When NYR Media and Sather have presented this narrative.

No Petry trade!
No Talbot!
No Brainer!

In a media availability PC credited MacT and Bucky for the Caggulia and Benning acquisition!

KLowe recently stated that the inability to retain great offensive players (EIG) drove the belief that good young forwards was the way to go under Katz.

He stated in hind sight that the old perspective held by PC and Tmac was the way to Go.

1. Build from the Net out
2. down the middle:
3. Speed on Every line
4. Add size

1.Talbot (MacT)

Russell (PC) – Larsson (PC)
Sekera (PC) – Benning ( MacT)
Davidson (Tambo) – Klefbom ( Tambo)
Nurse ( MacT)

2. Mcdavid ( MacT)
Draisatl (MacT)
RNH (Tambo)
Letestu (PC)

RW Kassian (PC) 6’3″ 217
top 20 PK Fwd
LW Maroon (PC) 6’3″ 230
top 75 fwd 22 EVG last 2 seasons; w/ Marleau; Backlund; Hartnell; Backes; kopitar; Ryan
LW Lucic (PC) 6’4′ 233
Top 60 Fwd 24 EVG

Professor Q

Lowetide: Always a really good two-way center with offensive ability, and a winger who could shoot and had some jam. Krejci was his center mostly, and the shooters on the line were RWs like Nathan Horton and Jarome Iginla.

Possibly why he might do better with Nuge?

N64

Woodguy: ?

TOI were in the original posts

I changed nothing

The smiley suggests he was playing ya.

Professor Q

Lots of trades today in the OHL.

London has acquired forward Dante Salituro from the Ottawa 67’s as well as defenseman Mitchell Vande Sompel from the Oshawa Generals. They’ve also acquired forward Mitchell Stephens from Saginaw Spirit (and gave up A LOT for him; all of them, really).

Damn. I was hoping for Niemeläinen…

Maybe this is around the time where we finally see where Oilers prospects end up?

Woodguy

Scungilli:
Woodguy re Demers

Thank Gord they didn’t sign Demers! They couldn’t sign Russell then and the shot blocking would sukk! And Demers wears pink suits.

Demers Larsson Benning, close call.

Also then they couldn’t trade another forward for a RHD

I don’t understand this at all.

Are you rolling me or agreeing with me?

Woodguy

spoiler: Yes, you’re welcome for the prompt.

?

TOI were in the original posts

I changed nothing

GMB3

Well does anyone have a link for somewhere I can watch Bakersfield games online?? I’m excited to see him on the ice for more than 8 minutes a game somewhere.

Scungilli Slushy

Woodguy re Demers

Thank Gord they didn’t sign Demers! They couldn’t sign Russell then and the shot blocking would sukk! And Demers wears pink suits.

Demers Larsson Benning, close call.

Also then they couldn’t trade another forward for a RHD

New Improved Darkness

I’m kind of wondering where, precisely, to slot “the weight” into the Donner Party hierarchy of needs.

* The Load
* The Millstone
* Just Eat Gilligan

spoiler

Woodguy: I get that.

I’ve included samples sizes with all the data.

Yes, you’re welcome for the prompt. 😉

N64

Professor Q: If I remember correctly, if Vegas signs a UFA in their early slot period, it counts as their pick from that team.

Although I could be misremembering and it might be if they accept a trade prior to the draft…Or both.

Chia needed to sign Gus on 7/1 before he signed anywhere else. Too much to ask for Vegas to sign him before 7/1? 😉

JD_Wry

–hudson–: My reasoning is if plan A was for LB…

Gus has to clear waivers first, I think.

Stauffer suggested it’s LB, but also added ‘unless something else transpires…’

The problem with claiming McElheinousey, aside from that nobody can spell his name, is that Pete’s at 48 contracts already.

--hudson--

Might be late on this one, but given that the Oilers haven’t recalled LB as yet, it seems plan A for them is to claim McElhinney.

My reasoning is if plan A was for LB, we would have heard about it already, similar to how CBJ announced the recall of Anton Forsberg the same time McElhinney was waived. Of course it could also be the Oilers looking to make a trade or just having a different PR protocol.

The Oilers would get great value if they hired Woodguy to just be a goalie scout/consultant. Outstanding work!!

squeezboks

Late to the party but had a good view of the game last night.

1) It’s been beat to death, but that rim around breakout play has got to go.

2) Our forwards need to come down lower on the breakouts when our D are behind the net. There was a sequence where the Senators forechecker in front of the net took away the stretch pass and our D just held the puck for what seemed like a minute.

3) The Monster is terrible.

4) Eberle needs to go back to his old stick, everything is off target these days.

frjohnk

Woodguy: We are seeing Talbot is at the very least an average NHL starter and probably a little better than that

The latter at least.

In the 40 top goalies in goalie starts this year.

-Talbot is 14th in save % with a .920. Average for this group is .916.
-Talbot is 16th in Quality Start % with 57%.

All we wanted the last 3 Christmas’s was league average goaltending.

We got that, and more. ( a great Chia pickup and then a great signing)

Woot!!!!

Woodguy

spoiler: Of course, but he’s had a fair bit of goal luck recently.The point is sample size.

I get that.

I’ve included samples sizes with all the data.

Woodguy

stush18:
Woodguy,

Do you have access to goalies GSAA over the course of a few years? Or is there a way to adjust the data down to the past 2-3 yrs? I ask because i’m assuming the drop in goals over the past ten year has coincided with a rise in save %age, which could skew results.

Asking because I’m not fully onboard with this metric. Whenever I see backups mixed in with starters, I start to wonder. Anything with price leading is a good place to start, but pavelec being that high makes me doubt. Doesn’t pass the eye test imo.

Shot volume doesn’t matter though.

The increased scoring in the year right after the lock out was almost exclusively driven by more penalties and more 5v4 scoring.

Saves per type of shot wouldn’t be affected by this at all.

There are also about 36,000 shots per year in the NHL, so the sample is 360,000 shots.

I can’t link right to Manny’s article but goto corsica.hockey –> click the goalie icon –> click glossary on right hand side –> type gsaa into search function.

Also,

Some back ups are really good, and Pavelec hasn’t been bad every year.

Here’s Pavelec GSAA/60 over a few years:

Player Season GSAA/60
ONDREJ.PAVELEC 20102011 0.406
ONDREJ.PAVELEC 20112012 0.214
ONDREJ.PAVELEC 20122013 -0.066
ONDREJ.PAVELEC 20132014 -0.148
ONDREJ.PAVELEC 20142015 0.427
ONDREJ.PAVELEC 20152016 0.171

I looked at 14/15-16/17 so his sample was dominated by his 14/15 (not coincidentally the last time WPG made the playoffs)

Here’s Pavelec’s High Danger SV% over those periods (5v5)

Player Season HDSv%
ONDREJ.PAVELEC 20102011 81.01
ONDREJ.PAVELEC 20112012 80.15
ONDREJ.PAVELEC 20122013 78.42
ONDREJ.PAVELEC 20132014 78.66
ONDREJ.PAVELEC 20142015 82.97
ONDREJ.PAVELEC 20152016 80.90

You can see his GSAA was driven by years of good HDSV%, which makes sense as a key take away from Manny’s piece on GSAA is this:

Additionally, it appears the skill-driven component of Sv% is almost entirely contained in a goalie’s ability to stop shots of the High-Danger variety.

Also,

As for some backups ranking high, it doesn’t surprise me.

Best 60 goalies in the world (give or take) play in the NHL.

Some starters stay starters due to contracts (see Fleury for many years, although his last 3 have been very good) and goalies have always been very tough to evaluate.

Many, many people who vote for NHL awards still insist that “Wins” is the most important goalie stats.

Its not an exact science.

I also found Talbot’s great numbers when he was a back up and was told it was “all NYR Dcorps”

The most I dug the less I believed that.

We are seeing Talbot is at the very least an average NHL starter and probably a little better than that, but it was his back up numbers that showed this first.

Professor Q

N64: Not for G. 40/1 or 70/2 NHL played
rule is only for skaters.

LB meets exposure requirement.

JG does not because UFA.

If I remember correctly, if Vegas signs a UFA in their early slot period, it counts as their pick from that team.

Although I could be misremembering and it might be if they accept a trade prior to the draft…Or both.

N64

Truth: Is there a minimum NHL days on the roster for goaltenders exposed to the expansion draft

Not for G. (The 40/1 or 70/2 NHL played rule is only for skaters).

LB meets the exposure requirement.

JG does not because UFA.

Professor Q

Furthermore, why not send down Caggiula and bring Khaira up as well? Do a full rotation of rookies (able to be rotated)?

blainer

Great news today for sure.

Don’t need to say much more about Gus but I was getting frustrated that all we needed was an injury to Talbot and we’re screwed.

Not sure LB is the answer either but he has to be better than Gus IMO.

The move for Slepy to the farm for a few weeks probably helped him a bit. I’m a big beliver in this player. Really would like to see him in the top six for a bit. His shot and size are big league.

JP… Finally off to the A.

Would love to see a few sorties at the center position for JP. He has all the tools for both the wing and the center position.

Kris Russell is surprising at times with my eye. Man he really hangs on to the puck and waits for the right play. I am beginning to like what I am seeing from him lately.. except for that bonehead clearing attempt last night.

Man I am very optimistic for the second half the way this team has been playing.

Time for Bob Cole to retire. It seems like he might have a bit of dementia going on there. It’s getting too painful to listen to him now. He’s had a good run but it’s time.

stush18

Woodguy,

I dunno.

You think Montoya, Hutton, raanta, enroth or khudobin were really that worried? I think we could have made bets they were all going to get deals.

These “backup” goalies usually stick around till there early to mid thirties.

I agree their are a lot of goalies availible on the market every year, but most of these teams need replacements too.

I think chia could have done better than gus tho. I’m not sure how much chia and Tmac are on the same page.

OF17

One thing that I’ve noticed with the Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl line is that it frees McDavid up to become puck support in the offensive zone rather than fighting battles himself. Both Maroon and Draisaitl are good enough along the wall that they usually either win the puck outright or make it a wash, at which point McDavid can swoop in and take possession. Speed and smarts mean he’s usually the 3rd guy to reach the battles. This creates chaos, as the guy covering McDavid needs to reevaluate what to do, and McDavid gets decently clean possession with space to make a move. By eye, I’ve seen more sustained pressure in the O zone since that line was put together, and I think that’s a big reason. That and how proficient Maroon and Draisaitl are at advancing breakouts under pressure.

LT, since you’ve seen more of Lucic than pretty much all of us here, what types of linemates did he work best with? Were they centers that liked to get into the battles themselves, was it with another winger that could win battles for the C like 19-97-29 are doing? It’s a shame we don’t have two Draisaitls, since 27-93-29 sounds to me like it could work with Nuge playing the 97 role in the offensive zone described above.

JD_Wry

Quite the prescient title today LT – the ‘wait’ to bring back Slepy and to fix the BU goaler, is over.

stush18

Woodguy,

Do you have access to goalies GSAA over the course of a few years? Or is there a way to adjust the data down to the past 2-3 yrs? I ask because i’m assuming the drop in goals over the past ten year has coincided with a rise in save %age, which could skew results.

Asking because I’m not fully onboard with this metric. Whenever I see backups mixed in with starters, I start to wonder. Anything with price leading is a good place to start, but pavelec being that high makes me doubt. Doesn’t pass the eye test imo.

spoiler

Woodguy: Maroon is doing more than banking them in, he’s got 16 of em.

Of course, but he’s had a fair bit of goal luck recently. The point is sample size.

Jethro Tull

kinger_OIL: – You have evidence that 18 year old not fully-matured finnish wingers drafted in the first round that play a rounded game do better the next year in the finnish league than developing in the NHL and north-america?Orthat at best it is a wash?

– Glad you’ve got it figured out….

Oh, oh, I know this!

Teemu Selanne.

For a bonus point, can you tell me the official reason he was returned to Finland after being drafted to the NHL?

*Clue: The answer is in the question above!*

Woodguy

stush18: I really think we discount the relationships between agents, gms, players, etc.

Does Montoya hate nuge? Was demers allergic to snow?

I think personality and relationships make up for a lot of these confusing moments, and we never hear about it until after, aka commodore and Babcock

Demers wanted to sign with Edmonton.

I’ll sign that in blood if I have to. My source is pretty freaking good.

Also,

From what I hear that can happen, but only among players that are sought after and have a choice.

Back up goalies usually can’t shit for a week before July 1 as there are *always* more back up goalies than jobs.

That’s why they mostly sign for $800K-$1.25K on 1 year deals.

Also,

A *very good* back up like Johnson gets an offer from EDM and one from CGY.

Looks that EDM just gave Talbot a big 4 year deal, and looks to CGY to see he’s backing up Elliotte who while received Vezina votes, is on the last year of his deal and would pick CGY due to the ability to actually win a #1 job.

That’s reasonable.

The non-hockey stuff isn’t reasonable for back up goalies.

frjohnk

kinger_OIL:
frjohnk,

– I’d really like to see a stat of sv% of all goalers on 2nd of B2B’s, and/or 3rd in 4rth night.

– Then see what % of those games are “sacrificed” to the back-up, and what their SV%is

– We are just guessing that on a relative basis Monster is bad as a back-up by taking his save percentage, but as the back-up he get gets mostly the sh%itty starts.I bet he’s average vs his peers.

– I don’t think he is a good goaler, but I bet he’s not as bad given his role….

– The next back-up, he could be Nilsson last year, or this year, or Halak, etc: it’s mostly luck, unless you give then a chance to succeed.

I dont have or dont know how to get B2B stats, but the fact that Gus is at .901 compared to the average of .908 of goalies who played on average from 2 to 4 games per month means he was below his peers. Also 40% quality starts when his peers average 50% is Scrivenslike in his last year as an Oiler. Thats not good.

If by chance, he is like you say ” average to his peers on a B2B”, then to get a .901 when his peers average .908 overall means that he really shits the bed on the other games that are not B2B to get that lower number.

Most of the other goalies in my sample played sporadically, just like Gus, so they were for the most part put into the same position to succeed/fail. And looking at the quality of competition, no where no top teams he played against in his losses. Maybe Philly. But he let in 6 goals that game.

If we look at the goalie classes we have
Elite
Very good starter
Average starter
Good backup
Average backup
Bad backup
Below replacement goalie

Gus numbers throughout his career are better than “below replacement goalie” but not as good as an “average backup”

He is a bad backup.

stush18

Bruce Wayne: You identified a big part of the problem right there.

I disagree that he is going to be paid regardless.When, and how much, is still in play. And what if the Oilers want to move him down the road in a Ryan O’Reilly situation.One less year of control means a smaller return.

I think most gms are told they have time, take there time, told they don’t have time, and make desperate moves.

So In three years he will either have a long term contract, that is low money and eats his RFA years, or a bridge that is low money that keeps him RFA. And if he’s signed for a bridge deal then he struggled his entire ELC and won’t get paid big anyways.

Lots of scenarios. I agree is strange to not preserve the year tho.

Woodguy

spoiler: Oh c’mon, lol.

For starters, they’re different players.Lucic is a passer, Maroon a shooter.

I have no idea why Lucic has been unable to bank shots in the net off other players at the same rate as Maroon, but I’m guessing it’s a little early to be making comparisons, not to mention the RWer is different.

Maroon is doing more than banking them in, he’s got 16 of em.

I agree they are different players.

As to “different RW”:

Lucic + McDavid + Eberle = 1.69 GF/60 (212 min)

Maroon + McDavid + Eberle = 3.91 GF/60 (92 min)

Maroon + McDavid + anyone but Eberle = 4.75 GF/60 (101 minutes)

I guess that blows my “Eberle was the problem” theory with 27-93-14

Maybe 27 and 14 just shouldn’t play together?

stush18

Woodguy: That’s the frustrating part.

People who follow hockey as a hobby seem to be able to see things coming that people immersed in NHL can’t.

I don’t understand it.

I really think we discount the relationships between agents, gms, players, etc.

Does Montoya hate nuge? Was demers allergic to snow?

I think personality and relationships make up for a lot of these confusing moments, and we never hear about it until after, aka commodore and Babcock

oscarmike

Draisaitle suffered no harm starting in the NHL his rookie year.
He saw first hand what it takes to play in the NHL.
It wasn’t hard on his development.
Now Edmonton is so lucky to have Draisaitle.

Right now Draisaitle is the player you put with
Other players to increase their production.

If Nuge or Drake line can’t produce. Dria goes back
To 2nd line center.

And how many people were crying because Oilers burnt
a year on Draisaitle’s ElC.

Pay the man!! Lock him up one year sooner.

Just like it’s not wrecking Puljujarvi career.
Now Jesse sees exactly what it takes.

Woodguy

russ99,

Lucic is a beast on the cycle and in front of the net, seems odd how we have a potential game changer in that style of play yet we try to use him off the rush.

The Oilers are a much more cycling team than previous years.

I think the biggest problem is that Eberle wasn’t good on cycle and the puck turned over lots when he had it on the boards.

Oilers Goal For/60

Lucic + McDavid + Eberle = 1.69 – That’s about 3rd line production (212 minutes played)

Lucic + McDavid + anyone but Eberle = 3.65 – That’s high end 1st line production (197 minutes played)

Also,

This supports your point a bit:

McDavid with neither Lucic nor Eberle = 4.61 GF/60 (143 minutes)

That’s ludicrous production.

I think Lucic spent most of his shifts with McDavid just trying to keep up

spoiler

Woodguy:
russ99,

IMO, much of Lucic’s 5×5 numbers fall off is systemic.

Why does the same system not affect Maroon playing the same position?

Oh c’mon, lol.

For starters, they’re different players. Lucic is a passer, Maroon a shooter.

I have no idea why Lucic has been unable to bank shots in the net off other players at the same rate as Maroon, but I’m guessing it’s a little early to be making comparisons, not to mention the RWer is different.

That said, I’m loving the start this line has had, and who doesn’t like to see Maroon’s ear-to-ear grin?

Cassandra

stush18:
Bruce Wayne,

Also most gms don’t care about 5-7 years done the road. They are either gone or have had enough success to cover any mistakes anyways

You identified a big part of the problem right there.

I disagree that he is going to be paid regardless. When, and how much, is still in play. And what if the Oilers want to move him down the road in a Ryan O’Reilly situation. One less year of control means a smaller return.

Cassandra

kinger_OIL: – You have evidence that 18 year old not fully-matured finnish wingers drafted in the first round that play a rounded game do better the next year in the finnish league than developing in the NHL and north-america?Orthat at best it is a wash?

– Glad you’ve got it figured out….

We went over this in the preseason. The evidence is strongly in favour of leaving Puljujarvi in
Europe. I was being charitable to the Oilers by calling it a wash.

stush18

Bruce Wayne,

I think for a player like JP, he’s going to get paid regardless. Curious decision to wait, but I’m glad he’s been moved.

Also most gms don’t care about 5-7 years done the road. They are either gone or have had enough success to cover any mistakes anyways

Mustard Tiger

Just a dumb theory, but maybe part of the Puljujarvi thing is maybe Pakarinen is getting healthier, and they want him down there skating with Puljujarvi?

kinger_OIL

frjohnk,

– I’d really like to see a stat of sv% of all goalers on 2nd of B2B’s, and/or 3rd in 4rth night.

– Then see what % of those games are “sacrificed” to the back-up, and what their SV% is

– We are just guessing that on a relative basis Monster is bad as a back-up by taking his save percentage, but as the back-up he get gets mostly the sh%itty starts. I bet he’s average vs his peers.

– I don’t think he is a good goaler, but I bet he’s not as bad given his role….

– The next back-up, he could be Nilsson last year, or this year, or Halak, etc: it’s mostly luck, unless you give then a chance to succeed.

kinger_OIL

Bruce Wayne: This must be what is happening. However, that it is intentional doesn’t make it smart.

Just leave him in Finland for the year, and bring him over next year when he is older.There is plenty of evidence it is good for development and even if it is a wash developmentally you get more and better years of service from the player.

– You have evidence that 18 year old not fully-matured finnish wingers drafted in the first round that play a rounded game do better the next year in the finnish league than developing in the NHL and north-america? Or that at best it is a wash?

– Glad you’ve got it figured out….

frjohnk

I looked at all the goalies who averaged 8 to 27 starts per year in the NHL since 2009. For the most part, these are the guys that have played backup. There are a couple of outliers. This list eliminates a bunch of the “replacement level goaltenders”, but again a few outliers creep in.

Some of them played the whole 8 years, some have just played a couple. There were 47 goalies who fit into this category.

Save Percentage
The average save % for these goalies was .908. Hammond with 42 starts had the best save % with a .925. The worst was Dipietro with a .885. Gus was 42nd worst out of 47 with a .901.

Quality Starts ( which is basically if a goalie outperforms the league average save percentage, he is awarded a quality start )
This group had a 50% success rate for a quality start. Gus had a quality start % of 40%. Again bottom of the pile.

Really Bad Starts ( which is shitting the bed)
This group had a 16.9% success rate of shitting the bed.
Gus had a 15.9% success rate of shitting the bed.

Hey!! He didnt shit the bed as bad as the average of this group. But then again this is a shitty group.

All in all. The Gus bet has not worked out.

fifthcartel

Stauffer says recalling Brossoit is the logical move, but then went into his quiet Stuaffer whisper voice and said “unless something else happens….. we’ll see”.

russ99

Woodguy:
russ99,

IMO, much of Lucic’s 5×5 numbers fall off is systemic.

Why does the same system not affect Maroon playing the same position?

Maroon is shooting from the same areas Lucic is, he’s not in the crease screening the goalie, cleaning up redirects and rebounds

Maroon is more a Pouliot-style player, and good on the rush, and not bad on the cycle either and he’s having a good run of hitting the net.

Lucic is a beast on the cycle and in front of the net, seems odd how we have a potential game changer in that style of play yet we try to use him off the rush.

oscarmike

Bruce Wayne: I may be mistaken, but I believe we lost the year of ELC when Puljujarvi played his 10th game.What has happened now is that the Oilers have lost a year of RFA status, which means that Puljujarvi will be an unrestricted free agent one year sooner than if had played the year in Finland or been sent down to the AHL a couple of weeks ago.

That’s a big deal.What is one year worth?A lot, millions of dollars on the cap, any way you slice it, and a great deal of flexibility.

What did the Oilers buy with that money?

Bruce Wayne: I may be mistaken, but I believe we lost the year of ELC when Puljujarvi played his 10th game.What has happened now is that the Oilers have lost a year of RFA status, which means that Puljujarvi will be an unrestricted free agent one year sooner than if had played the year in Finland or been sent down to the AHL a couple of weeks ago.

That’s a big deal.What is one year worth?A lot, millions of dollars on the cap, any way you slice it, and a great deal of flexibility.

What did the Oilers buy with that money?

Bruce Wayne,

So what you’re saying is money matters, lives don’t?
Puljujarvi is a person and not a mutual fund you buy at a bank.
Why does that matter to you. This is hockey. It doesn’t have to make sense.
Yeah I just didn’t fall off the turnip truck I know what a RFA is.

You make it sound like he’s getting paid for doing nothing.

28 games and had 8 points.

So what the Oilers are going to sign Puljujarvi a year earlier. That can also save the Oilers millions of dollars.

What if, what if, what if

What if Puljujarvi was sent to the AHL and his UFA status was left unchanged. What if the last year of his RFA status he has a breakthrough year. Now Oilers will be paying millions more signing him compared to his RFA status expiring a year sooner.

spoiler

I’d like to remind everyone that the media no longer considers it to be Eastern Canada, but Central Canada. Kind of like how socialism is now the “centre” politically (actually it’s now the left, right and centre, but that’s a story for another day).

Get with the program, Westerners!