ONE MORE MOUNTAIN TO CLIMB

by Lowetide

I always pick favorites, and that is the truth. When the late 1960s Leafs started bringing in young defensemen by the dozen, I chose Jim Dorey as my favorite. Habs? Serge Savard, and Larry Robinson too (even though I hated the Habs, and liked Guy Lapointe quite a bit too. It was a confusing time). My favorite young blue for the Oilers is Oscar the Dreamy, with his complete skill set and his skating ability. Man, this guy could be very good. Pull up a chair, we are just getting started.

SHARKS ATE OUR LUNCH, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-5, goal differential +3
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in January 2017: 2-3-0, goal differential -4
  • Oilers after 43, 2015-16: 17-23-3, goal differential -25
  • Oilers after 43, 2016-17: 21-15-7, goal differential +6

The key item to look at is January—it is beginning to look like November, and that is February’s job. Edmonton badly needs to post a strong January, or the rope is snapped and we are looking at a seller in our town one more time. Oilers played well in the second half of the game, but needed a couple of extra stops to have a chance. If this is a trend—slow starts and a couple of wobble goals is now two games old—this team is about to slide.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM JANUARY

  • On the road to: Columbus, Boston, New Jersey, Ottawa (Expected: 2-1-1) (Actual: 2-2-0)
  • At home to: San Jose, New Jersey, Calgary, Arizona, Florida, Nashville (Expected Result: 3-1-2) (So Far: 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Calgary, Anaheim, San Jose (Expected Result: 2-1-0)
  • At home to: Minnesota (Expected Result: 0-1-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-4-3, 17 points in 14 games
  • Current Results: 2-3-0, four points in five games

This is not good enough, ladies. Now, for the good news. In the next several days, Edmonton faces five teams and the club needs eight points. That is four wins, or three wins and two Bettman points, something. Last night was an unsuccessful sortie, but the really important work is straight ahead. Edmonton needs five more wins this month. Giddyup.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Sekera—Benning went 14-11 together, Sekera also spent time with Russell (6-1), Larsson and Klefbom (2-0). Not quite sure why the went away from Sekera—Benning—who were effective—but things were going in a good direction from Sekera. 12-3 against the Tierney line.
  • Russell—Larsson went 13-10 together, I thought, as I always do, the pairing lacks an effective way to get the puck up the ice consistently. That said, Russell was 11-4 with McDavid on the ice and 6-5 with the Nuge. 7-6 against the Thornton line. 9-3 against Marleau, 1-8 against Lebanc.
  • Klefbom—Gryba went 7-11 together, McLellan moved Oscar to Larsson (7-4) and Benning as the game rolled along. I think Oscar can play capably with all the RHD, but Gryba is my least favorite match for him. Oscar has range, needs to be in the top 4D. Oscar was 9-3 against Pavelski.
  • Cam Talbot had the yips, although not all GA were on him. Caught 23 of 28, .821.
  • HockeyStats.ca, NHL.com and NaturalStatTrick.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Maroon—McDavid—Draisaitl did not score, but hammered the Vlasic pairing (22-10). Did not dominate the Thornton line (8-4) as much as last time, but only a hot goalie and luck kept this trio from scoring. Ladies and men, a giant walks among us—and he turns 20 in two days.
  • Pouliot—Caggiula—Kassian scored a goal, the young center getting his third of the season. On a night when I thought three of the LWs played quite well, for me Pouliot ranks behind only Maroon among them. Kassian doesn’t always have his feet going as he did last night, I know not why.
  • Lucic—Nuge—Eberle had a good night, especially by their own recent standards. When Eberle breaks out, he may carry this team for 10 days. Perhaps we see that begin on Thursday. Pouliot moved up to this line for a time, thought he looked good there, as always.
  • Hendricks—Lestestu—Lander didn’t play well, but I also feel Mr. McLellan might have played them a little more. Shortening the bench may not be as effective as we (I) think it is.
  • I hope we see Slepyshev on a line with Letestu and Lander on Thursday. That is what I would do.

JESSE ON THE ROAD

Jesse Puljujarvi picked up an assist in his first AHL game, we have a line in the sand of 1/1 AHLGP-Points and so we are on track. He played with Jujhar Khaira and Joey Laleggia on what looks like a 2line but I cannot be sure. One thing I wanted to remind you of: JP had some good things going in the NHL this season, age 18.

JESSE PULJUJARVI 2016-17, EDMONTON

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.45 (No. 6 among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 2.66 (one point in 22 minutes)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 53.2
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: 1.1 (No. 5 among regular forwards)
  • Dangerous Fenwick (all opponents) for 5×5%: 49.7
  • Most Common Linemates: Leon Draisaitl, Patrick Maroon, Connor McDavid, Benoit Pouliot
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 41/2.4
  • Boxcars: 28GP, 1-7-8
  • Information via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com, WoodMoney and hockey-reference.

If JP had a normal (10 percent) shooting percentage, his boxcars would read 4-7-11 and we might be singing a different tune. I think his shot is good enough to score in the NHL, we should look for a strong 20-game run in the AHL, and then a return to the regular NHL lineup. This is what I would do.

2017 NHL DRAFT

I have to tell you this is shaping up to be a strange draft in terms of consensus. I pay attention to all kinds of lists—not as a guide, but as a curio—and it is rare to reach January and have this range even inside a top 10.

I have a great deal of respect for Craig Button, always pay close attention to his new lists. Red Line for me is the industry standard. As I mentioned, my list is mostly math so doesn’t really associate in terms of compilation with these two scouting lists. That said, RLR and Button don’t agree on six of the top 10, and the lists part after No. 1 overall. Hold on, this might be one of those drafts where really good prospects fall to No. 20 or later.

ANTON SLEPYSHEV

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.45 (No. 7 among forwards with >100 minutes)
  • 5×4 points per 60: nil
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 50.3
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -1.0
  • Dangerous Fenwick (all opponents) for 5×5%: 47.0
  • Most Common Linemates: Leon Draisaitl, Zack Kassian, Tyler Pitlick, Drake Caggiula
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 22/9.1
  • Boxcars: 15GP, 2-2-4
  • Information via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com, WoodMoney and hockey-reference.

Once again, sincere thanks to Wood Guy and G Money for access to this, I am sure it drives them nuts to see me plod along in the slow adult learner lane. But, this is how I learn, and I am thrilled to bring you the information in my 1960s style. 🙂

Slepyshev is building a decent resume here, and since he has size (6.02, 187) and speed, this is a player who has a chance to hang around for some time. We shouldn’t project too much, even a Marc Habscheid (345 NHL games) is a distant bell, but this is a recall the young man did not receive in January one year ago. At the trade deadline, at least one winger could be gone. There is an opportunity here. I am cheering for him.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

It is a cold Wednesday but better weather is on the way (actually here, just taking time to warm up). At 10 this morning, we hit the air on TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Wednesday’s with Bruce haven’t changed much this season, despite the Oilers better overall record. My word the hockey Gods have it in for McCurdy. We will try to make him smile at 10:20.
  • Corey Graham, TSN1260 Oil Kings PBP. The trade deadline is over, and the Oil Kings were extremely active. We will check in with Corey.
  • Brad Gagnon, Bleacher Report. A look at the big NFL weekend coming up, and some coaching rumors.

A few more irons in the fire, we will update you at 10. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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Bag of Pucks

GMB3…but when trading the 6 million dollar guys there is a lot more pressure for that move to pay off so more risk… There is a much higher chance that trading RNH and Ebs backfires and finding low-cost bullets is easier said than done.

You think this because you’re equating the cost of the player’s salary with the value of the player. In fact, the player’s value is their production output. And based on current levels of production, the value is not nearly as high as their cap hit (ie they’re cap inefficient).

This is the kind of logic that drives holding onto Yak and Schultz too long: confusing perceived value with actual market value.

The greater risk is doing nothing and potentially ending up with an untradeable contract in return for modest production.

Bag of Pucks

GMB3: is Adam Larsson as good defensively if he isn’t learning from Scott Stevens in NJ though..?

We’ll never know.

Bag of Pucks

JimmyV1965: If you’re referring to me you have grossly misrepresentsented my position. I’m not a hater and I never once mentioned Chia.I simply think it’s flawed logic to think you can make up for their production with free agents.You can take a gamble and trade RNH or Eberle for someone like Lindholm, but you’re certainly not covering the downside of that bet with free agents.

I’m not directly referring to anyone. Hence why no names. Just providing background/context on my rules of engagement.

Indirectly, it could apply to anyone who self identifies as a dedicated critic/hater of Chiarelli’s job performance.

classict

Bag of Pucks: True, if you see Maroon’s trend line as a one and done. What if he’s an emerging ‘Lucic in his prime’ with 3 stellar seasons ahead of him?

But you’re right, he could be incredibly attractive on the trade market. Parakyo for Maroon? I’d do that deal and I LOVE Patty as a player.

Yes it would be very easy to trade away Oilers players if every other GM was dumb enough to make trades like this. I think if Chia tried to bring up Maroon for Parayko the phone call wouldn’t last 10 seconds.

Professor Q

GMB3,

Maybe we’d have kept Huddy?

GMB3

Bag of Pucks:
Sad thought for today. If Tambi had simply drafted Larsson over RNH, 90% of what ails this roster today is likely moot.

is Adam Larsson as good defensively if he isn’t learning from Scott Stevens in NJ though..?

JimmyV1965

Bag of Pucks:
As an aside that may help to clarify my take on most of these matters, dedicated critics of Peter Chiarelli kind of remind me of Nickelback haters.

It’s the easiest thing in the world to join these herds that are legion on the interwebs and suggest you could do better.

It’s another thing entirely to actually do it.

Now, you can subjectively not like Nickelback. It’s a free world.

But, in all but the rarest instances, what you likely cannot do is better their job performance. These are professional caliber musicians that have figured out how to sell millions of records and sell out hundreds of concert dates. And hobby musicians who’s sole contribution to the historical music canon is that 3 chord acoustic cover they posted to youtube, have the hubris to suggest they can do better.

In short, you don’t have to like someone to respect what they do and what they’ve achieved.

Hating is not a talent. This doesn’t get emphasized enough in our modern society imo.

If you’re referring to me you have grossly misrepresentsented my position. I’m not a hater and I never once mentioned Chia. I simply think it’s flawed logic to think you can make up for their production with free agents. You can take a gamble and trade RNH or Eberle for someone like Lindholm, but you’re certainly not covering the downside of that bet with free agents.

GMB3

Bag of Pucks: When I kicked off this topic, I provided my proposed approach in terms of how/where/when, and provided some examples of the young players I would target. Take a look up the thread. But that’s just off the top of my head, because you know…I’m not paid to do this.

This may come as a surprise but I don’t have an extended staff of analysts, capologists, scouts, etc. to provide me with mounds of data to vet potential player acquisition targets. Chiarelli gets paid millions of dollars to manage that process and given the likes of Benning. Caggiula, Maroon, Russell, etc. I think he’s doing excellent work in that regard.

For that reason, I would very much like him to clear out his dead money, as he’s shown a talent for making the most of low cost bullets.

Not only do I think he would get far better returns out of the approach I’m endorsing than I, I suspect it’s the path he’ll pursue and I look forward to watching how it plays out.

I feel like acquiring low cost bullets can be a fair bit of luck and IMO the low cost bullets who exceed expectations like Patty Maroon are moves that he should obviously emulate, but when trading the 6 million dollar guys there is a lot more pressure for that move to pay off so more risk. If Maroon was just an average depth player for us, that trade is still a good move. There is a much higher chance that trading RNH and Ebs backfires and finding low-cost bullets is easier said than done.

GMB3

Woodguy: Well done.

Hey WoodGuy, I recently started following you on twitter (great follow for anyone here who isn’t following him). I’ve seen you tweet a fair bit about having speed and skill on all 4 lines.

With keeping that in mind, what do you think of a fourth line along the lines of Caggiula-Khaira-Slepy. Some size, speed, skill, and Khaira may be an improvement over Caggiula in the dot. I feel this is a line that could provide energy and offense, and would be a tough match up for teams with less depth.

Bag of Pucks

As an aside that may help to clarify my take on most of these matters, dedicated critics of Peter Chiarelli kind of remind me of Nickelback haters.

It’s the easiest thing in the world to join these herds that are legion on the interwebs and suggest you could do better.

It’s another thing entirely to actually do it.

Now, you can subjectively not like Nickelback. It’s a free world.

But, in all but the rarest instances, what you likely cannot do is better their job performance. These are professional caliber musicians that have figured out how to sell millions of records and sell out hundreds of concert dates. And hobby musicians who’s sole contribution to the historical music canon is that 3 chord acoustic cover they posted to youtube, have the hubris to suggest they can do better.

In short, you don’t have to like someone to respect what they do and what they’ve achieved.

Hating is not a talent. This doesn’t get emphasized enough in our modern society imo.

Bag of Pucks

JimmyV1965: Not to make a whole big thing here, but your strategy appears to be trade Eberle and RNH for younger cheaper players with upside.That’s fine.So who would you trade them for? And please don’t mention free agency because we know free agency in the NHL doesn’t solve problems.Also I’m not super familiar with the NFL, but I certainly know contracts and cap space and free agency are not comparable in the NHL to the MLB and NBA.

When I kicked off this topic, I provided my proposed approach in terms of how/where/when, and provided some examples of the young players I would target. Take a look up the thread. But that’s just off the top of my head, because you know…I’m not paid to do this.

This may come as a surprise but I don’t have an extended staff of analysts, capologists, scouts, etc. to provide me with mounds of data to vet potential player acquisition targets. Chiarelli gets paid millions of dollars to manage that process and given the likes of Benning. Caggiula, Maroon, Russell, etc. I think he’s doing excellent work in that regard.

For that reason, I would very much like him to clear out his dead money, as he’s shown a talent for making the most of low cost bullets.

Not only do I think he would get far better returns out of the approach I’m endorsing than I, I suspect it’s the path he’ll pursue and I look forward to watching how it plays out.

Timeisnow

Bag of Pucks:
Sad thought for today. If Tambi had simply drafted Larsson over RNH, 90% of what ails this roster today is likely moot.

Ha, would like to think that but I’m thinking there’s a very good chance his development would be botched. We are talking about Tambi and Lowe

JimmyV1965

Bag of Pucks: It’s especially hard if you handcuff your roster with untradeable contracts.

One of the ways the Patriots skew the odds in their favour is by maximizing their odds of hitting more than one of their ‘good bets.’

They don’t replace a Welker with the highest price slot receiver in free agency. They bring in numerous young players like a Hogan, Amendola, Bennett, Floyd which ensures that A) they have numerous chances to hit a home run& B) should they not hit any dingers with any of these players individually, they’ve spread out the cap in a fashion that enables them to achieve production by committee.

The Oilers’ historic flaw in terms of asset management is in thinking they need to trade an Eberle or Nuge for a $6 mil type player that will produce what those players were supposed to deliver. This is why they hold onto players like Schultz, Gagner and Yakupov forever, because the market never offers what their perceived internal value is.

In short, you could theoretically lose Eberle and Nuge’s $12mil in cap hit and fill 3 roster holes at $4mil each or 4 players at $3 mil each to really maximize your odds, provided you’ve done your due diligence and effectively identified players about to trend upward.

Pittsburgh, SJ, CBJ. What is the common thread? Deep, deep rosters with cap efficient contracts throughout. Core doesn’t mean 6 guys on big contracts anymore. It means 3 true elite difference makers and then a crap ton of value contracts everywhere else.

Dead money. It’s the enemy of Cup contention.

Not to make a whole big thing here, but your strategy appears to be trade Eberle and RNH for younger cheaper players with upside. That’s fine. So who would you trade them for? And please don’t mention free agency because we know free agency in the NHL doesn’t solve problems. Also I’m not super familiar with the NFL, but I certainly know contracts and cap space and free agency are not comparable in the NHL to the MLB and NBA.

Professor Q

Finally. J. K. and Brossoit called up officially.

Bag of Pucks

Bruce Wayne,

In your world, do the Patriots not pay Tom Brady or Gronkowski big money (ala Brent Burns) or is that just not convenient to your argument?

The true difference makers always get paid. No one is suggesting otherwise.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Bruce Wayne,

I agree with this. but am more optimistic on Lucic. I haven’t been impressed but I’m willing to allow more time for him to settle in.

This is a much younger and much faster team than he has played on before and he’s not sitting behind (rather he’s beside) another locker room giant. And the Oilers are still figuring out their roster.

I have good vibes about this homestead.

JD_Wry


Edmonton Oilers Verified account
‏@EdmontonOilers

#Oilers recall Laurent Brossoit from @Condors & assign Jonas Gustavsson. Brossoit: 9-8-3 record, 2.67 GAA, .908 save percentage, 2 shutouts.

Bag of Pucks

Bruce Wayne: Your analogy with the Patriots is seriously strained.

First, while I agree with the principle of trading a player a year too early rather than too late, the poster boy for this principle is your hero, Milan Lucic, whoshould never have been signed in the first place, and is a major drag on this team, for this year, and forever.

Second, the specific example of the Patriots works because in football, and for the Patriots specifically, the system drives the success of the players, not the other way around.Do the Oilers have this kind of system?

Third, your examples of the Penguins, Columbus, and SJ, is hilarious.SJ just signed Brett Burns for 8 million dollars from now until eternity.That is the opposite of the Patriot way.Marleau is dead money on the cap this year.Michael Boedker is a 4 million dollar failed example of exactlly what you are talking about.Columbus has an overpaid Hartnell and is succeeding because of great drafting coming to fruition at the same time.

i think the key reason you’re interested in diminishing this thought experiment is because you don’t have any better ideas than Chiarelli.

If that’s not the case, then take up the challenge. What exactly would you do with Nuge and Eberle this offseason?

Here’s your chance to prove you’re smarter than Chiarelli by illuminating a better path to success BEFORE his moves that you’ll inevitably criticize after the fact.

If my approach sucks, what is the right way to deal with those two contracts specifically?

Btw, what’s seriously strained is your never-ending obsession with making everything about the Hall trade. This Patriots comparison has gone on for a few posts. Your Hall obsession? It’s reaching John Hinckley Jr. / Jodie Foster level proportions.

I think Batman will actually come to grips with the death of his parents before you let the Hall trade go.

bendelson

Soup Fascist: Or maybe it is the God Awful “Creed Tuesday” down at LT’s other hangout. Could Lowetide declare a unilateral cease and desist order at TSN 1260?

That’s a fine idea regardless of the Oilers win/loss record on Tuesdays…

Cassandra

Bag of Pucks: It’s especially hard if you handcuff your roster with untradeable contracts.

One of the ways the Patriots skew the odds in their favour is by maximizing their odds of hitting more than one of their ‘good bets.’

They don’t replace a Welker with the highest price slot receiver in free agency. They bring in numerous young players like a Hogan, Amendola, Bennett, Floyd which ensures that A) they have numerous chances to hit a home run& B) should they not hit any dingers with any of these players individually, they’ve spread out the cap in a fashion that enables them to achieve production by committee.

The Oilers’ historic flaw in terms of asset management is in thinking they need to trade an Eberle or Nuge for a $6 mil type player that will produce what those players were supposed to deliver. This is why they hold onto players like Schultz, Gagner and Yakupov forever, because the market never offers what their perceived internal value is.

In short, you could theoretically lose Eberle and Nuge’s $12mil in cap hit and fill 3 roster holes at $4mil each or 4 players at $3 mil each to really maximize your odds, provided you’ve done your due diligence and effectively identified players about to trend upward.

Pittsburgh, SJ, CBJ. What is the common thread? Deep, deep rosters with cap efficient contracts throughout. Core doesn’t mean 6 guys on big contracts anymore. It means 3 true elite difference makers and then a crap ton of value contracts everywhere else.

Dead money. It’s the enemy of Cup contention.

Your analogy with the Patriots is seriously strained.

First, while I agree with the principle of trading a player a year too early rather than too late, the poster boy for this principle is your hero, Milan Lucic, who should never have been signed in the first place, and is a major drag on this team, for this year, and forever.

Second, the specific example of the Patriots works because in football, and for the Patriots specifically, the system drives the success of the players, not the other way around. Do the Oilers have this kind of system?

Third, your examples of the Penguins, Columbus, and SJ, is hilarious. SJ just signed Brett Burns for 8 million dollars from now until eternity. That is the opposite of the Patriot way. Marleau is dead money on the cap this year. Michael Boedker is a 4 million dollar failed example of exactlly what you are talking about. Columbus has an overpaid Hartnell and is succeeding because of great drafting coming to fruition at the same time.

Soup Fascist

Bruce McCurdy:
EIGHT straight losses on Tuesdays now.

EIGHT in a row.

EIGHT.

I am thinking it’s because the silicone chip inside their heads get switched to “overload” …. but I could be a bit off.

Or maybe it is the God Awful “Creed Tuesday” down at LT’s other hangout. Could Lowetide declare a unilateral cease and desist order at TSN 1260?

Chachi

JDï™,

True, not unpossible at all. Good for him, I guess.

Bag of Pucks

JDï™:
Hands up, everyone who predicted that Gagner would be producing like this in Columbus. Anyone? Uh huh.

How about anyone who thought the BJs would be at the top of the league? No?

I guess that makes the job of picking next year’s Gagner a damned bit harder now, don’t it?

It’s especially hard if you handcuff your roster with untradeable contracts.

One of the ways the Patriots skew the odds in their favour is by maximizing their odds of hitting more than one of their ‘good bets.’

They don’t replace a Welker with the highest price slot receiver in free agency. They bring in numerous young players like a Hogan, Amendola, Bennett, Floyd which ensures that A) they have numerous chances to hit a home run & B) should they not hit any dingers with any of these players individually, they’ve spread out the cap in a fashion that enables them to achieve production by committee.

The Oilers’ historic flaw in terms of asset management is in thinking they need to trade an Eberle or Nuge for a $6 mil type player that will produce what those players were supposed to deliver. This is why they hold onto players like Schultz, Gagner and Yakupov forever, because the market never offers what their perceived internal value is.

In short, you could theoretically lose Eberle and Nuge’s $12mil in cap hit and fill 3 roster holes at $4mil each or 4 players at $3 mil each to really maximize your odds, provided you’ve done your due diligence and effectively identified players about to trend upward.

Pittsburgh, SJ, CBJ. What is the common thread? Deep, deep rosters with cap efficient contracts throughout. Core doesn’t mean 6 guys on big contracts anymore. It means 3 true elite difference makers and then a crap ton of value contracts everywhere else.

Dead money. It’s the enemy of Cup contention.

Revolved

Can anyone explain to me why Mark Fayne is in the AHL while Gryba is playing? Would Gryba get taken off waivers?

JD_Wry

Chachi,

39 games, 14G, 16A for Sammy. It’s not unpossible.

JD_Wry

So did Chia get Gus waived to facilitate a trade for another BUG who was also in the minors? And did Anaheim scoop him on that deal?

Chachi

JDï™:
Chachi,

Next season, in the NHL.

Well obviously not. Don’t think Gagner will hit 25G 30A either.

JD_Wry

Chachi,

Next season, in the NHL.

Chachi

JDï™:
Chachi,

I see that he’s up to 144 lbs now.

Might be a good bet, yes. Should I mark you down for a 25 G, 30A prediction?

In the KHL? Sure why not?

JD_Wry

Chachi,

I see that he’s up to 144 lbs now.

Might be a good bet, yes. Should I mark you down for a 25 G, 30A prediction?

Chachi

JDï™:
Hands up, everyone who predicted that Gagner would be producing like this in Columbus. Anyone? Uh huh.

How about anyone who thought the BJs would be at the top of the league? No?

I guess that makes the job of picking next year’s Gagner a damned bit harder now, don’t it?

I’m gonna leave this right here: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=163405

JD_Wry

Hands up, everyone who predicted that Gagner would be producing like this in Columbus. Anyone? Uh huh.

How about anyone who thought the BJs would be at the top of the league? No?

I guess that makes the job of picking next year’s Gagner a damned bit harder now, don’t it?

Woodguy

Bag of Pucks,

True, if you see Maroon’s trend line as a one and done. What if he’s an emerging ‘Lucic in his prime’ with 3 stellar seasons ahead of him?

Maroon is 45 days older than Lucic.

Both are past the prime ages of 21-26.

I like Maroon, just hope Chia doesn’t give out his standard “too much, too long” contract.

Chachi

Bruce Wayne: If you look at the scoring leaders, you don’t see unrestricted free agents. You see young players and superstars. You can’t get the superstars so you have to find the hidden gems. Guys like Cam Atkinson or Panarin.

Cam Atkinson is exactly 1 year younger than Milan Lucic.

Lucic has outscored Atkinson in each of the last 5 NHL seasons.

Atkinson is currently sporting a shooting percentage 5% higer than his career average.

Agree with you on Panarin. That was a good bet by Chicago.

Melman

Woodguy,

I had the same thought. The wrinkle here might be Hendricks – as in if/once Hendy gets dealt then Anton will come back and take that spot giving you a 4th made up of Lander, JJ, Letestu & Sleppy (or Kassian with Sleppy on the 3rd).

If “we” think that Hendy, as has be talked about, will be desired as a deadline pickup b/c experience, etc. for the playoffs – do not those same reasons make the club want to hang onto him? Perhaps Hendy is part of the package solve the backup goaltending. If Chia was just planning on sending Gus down and bringing up LB why would he not have done that today along with the JJ/Lander switch? Wouldn’t having LB here getting NHL practice time and settling in is more valuable than the extra couple games he’ll pick up in the AHL, or is he better off playing down there until he’s actually going to get a start here in order to stay sharp. I seem to have more questions than i thought i did

Oddspell

Bag of Pucks: True, if you see Maroon’s trend line as a one and done. What if he’s an emerging ‘Lucic in his prime’ with 3 stellar seasons ahead of him?

But you’re right, he could be incredibly attractive on the trade market. Parakyo for Maroon? I’d do that deal and I LOVE Patty as a player.

Love Maroon, but he shot >20% last year and almost 17% this year. Pretty safe to say that his 30 goal pace is probably an outlier.

That said, he’s about 10 games off of matching his career high shot total at this pace. Even if Patty regresses, I’m guessing he’s a better player for the Oilers than he ever was for the Ducks.

JimmyV1965

Bag of Pucks: Are you sure? You might want to look at the Washington Capitals.

i think the Niskannen deal worked out for them. Just like the Sekera deal worked out for us. But you know those are the outliers. Right? The vast majority of high-priced signings end in tears.

PhrankLee

LT the two spots you fretted about all year so far are rearing their ugly heads.

RW depth and 2G

How could a team possibly trade Eberle with the current depth and injury on RW?

Happy to see JJ get into a game.

Bag of Pucks

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!:
Bag of Pucks,

How do you get around the illlogical loop of brushing aside Lucic’s lacklustre 5v5 scoring levels so far this season (while playing a big chunk of it with McDavid) while using past playoff performance to justify his high value while at the same time deriding RNH and Eberle value using the same metrics you’ve given Lucic a pass on?

Full Disclosure: I am hugely disappointed in the seasons that Eberle and RNH are having offensively this season. But much like the Oilers patented “around the board and out” breakout system I also don’t believe Eberle has forgotten that he gets paid to score. Sometimes you go through a slump, shit happens and with a marriage on the way and his best man getting traded away who knows maybe thats weighing on him a tad. Not an excuse, again I’m not happy that he isn’t scoring, but a justification perhaps.

A) I think you have to give Lucic some time to acclimate to a new team. And he is producing. It’s not like he’s posting goose eggs. Made a helluva pass last night on the Benning goal.

B) I think what you’re seeing with RNH and Eberle are players struggling with TMac’s system. The Oilers are becoming a structured system, tight checking, cycle team. They have a rush line with McDavid but you don’t get to stay on that line unless you’re lighting the lamp consistently because the club’s fortunes are absolutely 100% tied to that line producing right now.

Again, with these two players, I come back to the NE Patriots. They are ruthless when it comes to managing their cap. If you don’t produce, you’re gone. It’s a very tough mindset but the results speak for themselves. There are players: Ty Law, Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, Welker, etc. that were huge parts of that team and Belichik dealt all of them early not late.

My issue with betting on players to rebound? That’s what this club has always done and it has not served them well. Spot the players that are trending. That will lead you to keeping Curtis Glencross over Robert Nilsson.

Bag of Pucks

JimmyV1965:
If we are to truly follow your strategy Bag of Pucks it’s not Eberle and RNH we should be trading. It’s Maroon. I love this guy, maybe my favourtie Oiler, but his production today is way off the norm. He will also be due for a huge spike in salary. And imagine what kind of return you get for him right now. A truly contending team would give up the moon for Maroon at the deadline.

True, if you see Maroon’s trend line as a one and done. What if he’s an emerging ‘Lucic in his prime’ with 3 stellar seasons ahead of him?

But you’re right, he could be incredibly attractive on the trade market. Parakyo for Maroon? I’d do that deal and I LOVE Patty as a player.

Woodguy

Re: Lander down and Khaira up

I look forward to seeing Khaira up, thought he was very good with 93-14 last year.

Lander is a high end AHL center (100pts in last 80 games or so)

They may have asked Lander to be their Crash Davis and hold the high end prospect’s hand and help him score in the AHL.

Bag of Pucks

Jethro Tull,

Assuming everything you say is true, in this hypothetical scenario what if Larsson is still on the roster when Chiarelli takes over? Are you suggesting the new regime couldn’t sort out his development? Kind of like they’re doing with Klefbom and Nurse?

And if all of what you suggest is true, why did Hall become a star. Was he simply the outlier/fluke in the whole experiment?

JimmyV1965

If we are to truly follow your strategy Bag of Pucks it’s not Eberle and RNH we should be trading. It’s Maroon. I love this guy, maybe my favourtie Oiler, but his production today is way off the norm. He will also be due for a huge spike in salary. And imagine what kind of return you get for him right now. A truly contending team would give up the moon for Maroon at the deadline.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Bag of Pucks,

How do you get around the illlogical loop of brushing aside Lucic’s lacklustre 5v5 scoring levels so far this season (while playing a big chunk of it with McDavid) while using past playoff performance to justify his high value while at the same time deriding RNH and Eberle value using the same metrics you’ve given Lucic a pass on?

Full Disclosure: I am hugely disappointed in the seasons that Eberle and RNH are having offensively this season. But much like the Oilers patented “around the board and out” breakout system I also don’t believe Eberle has forgotten that he gets paid to score. Sometimes you go through a slump, shit happens and with a marriage on the way and his best man getting traded away who knows maybe thats weighing on him a tad. Not an excuse, again I’m not happy that he isn’t scoring, but a justification perhaps.

Woodguy

Dennis King:
I think the Tuesday streak perseveres because LT and Bruce continue to practice Sex Magic on Monday nights.

That’s just a hunch, tho

Ha!

Well, well, well, look who the cat dragged in.

Just have to get Riv, Pat and few others to post and it will be like Old Home Week.

Good to see you post again.

Alpine

Bag of Pucks: Are you sure? You might want to look at the Washington Capitals.

Yeah we should definitely go waste 5 mil of our cap on Brooks Orpik.

Woodguy

JDï™: What time is it?

Well shit.

Great minds and all…..

Woodguy

fifthcartel:
How long until Matt Benning is their best RHD?

What time is it?

Jethro Tull

Bag of Pucks:
Jethro Tull,

The problem with your argument imo is your desire to conflate an RNH vs Larsson decision with infinite variables.

In fact, it was a considered A/B choice at that point in history and thus the merits of it can still be evaluated accordingly.

Let’s say the decision instead was a company considering the acquisition of two potential companies, and how said acquisitions would impact their market viability and performance going forward, Yes, there’s a million other potential companies they could have purchased, but that doesn’t prevent them for re-assessing the two they were considering and ultimately how that decision impacted their asset base both present day and for the forseeable future.

But there are infinite variables.

For funsies, let’s evaluate (wrong word, as evaluation is based on known facts) so instead let’s best guess:

1) Edmonton draft Larsson, a consensus #4 pick (actually picked #4 OV). RNH falls to Colorado, Huberdeau to NJ. Shit, let’s make it really fun and say Larsson and RNH swap places, even though RNH was ahead by a country mile as #1 OV. (Neglecting the fact that EDM was sorely in need of centers at the time.)

2) RNH goes to a very defense minded team. Nothing wrong there, he’s behind quite a few people, Zajac, Elias and Henrique. This is the year they make the final. Good team.

3) Larsson comes to Edmonton where he’s behind Jeff Petry in a system that wouldn’t know what to do with a good young D man if their life depended on it, He is also blamed when management realize that once again, another talented young d man refuses to be Chris Pronger in his prime.

4) Larsson surpasses Petry, playing 25mins a night. Oilers marginally better. Then in comes the swarm. Goes through his sophomore slump, then consequently is challenged with a one year contract. For some reason, he and his agent don’t like this. He now plays for St. Louis and has won two cups.

5) 2015/16, RNH is now ready to assume 3rd line center role with NJD. Yet to break 50pts.

6) In 2012 season, Edmonton traded Taylor Hall for a Eric Staal, as they had no-one at center, because they didn’t draft one. He puts up 53pts.

Your mistake is faith in the people in charge at the time. If we’d have drafted Larsson, he would have been developed and asset managed by the same people who brought you the Souray saga, the Petry Chronicles and the Schultz Affair. But, yeah, we wouldn’t have ever traded Hall.