THE VALUE OF A FINN IN BAKERSFIELD

by Lowetide

The Bakersfield Condors play host to the Stockton Heat tonight, it is a home game for the Oilers’ farm team. Oilers fans have renewed interest in the minor league club, as first-round pick Jesse Puljujarvi prepares to play his second AHL game tonight.

The Condors are not an especially strong team, but could also make the playoffs with a good finish. Trying to figure out the AHL standings (not all teams play the same number of games) is a fool’s folly unless you have a great deal of experience, and of course our interest in the team does not extend to playoff chances.

One area I find very important is points-per-60, or in the case of the AHL, estimated points per 60. Here is the latest from Prospect-Stats in estimated points per 60.

FORWARDS, 2016-17 EST POINTS PER 60 (EVENS)

  • The numbers for men like Anton Lander, Taylor Beck and Ryan Hamilton aren’t terribly important, we know they can post offense at this level. We are worrying about the prospects.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi had a good first game, as indicated here. Now, we should expect this to continue, but his boxcars should also include power-play numbers, so he might not score at 3.00+ for the entire time in the minors.
  • Anton Slepyshev and Jujhar Khaira are both in the majors tonight, and their minor league even-strength offense suggests they earned the jobs on merit.
  • The progression for Khaira is exactly what we want to see from the minors, improvements year over year and the offense showing growth. Khaira is not projected to be a top 6F, but he has to show some offense in the AHL in order for us to project him onto a secondary NHL role. He has shown it.
  • Mitchell Moroz is the next prospect of note, his 1.16/60 is about what we might expect for him—his journey to the NHL will not be on a skill line.
  • Any prospect in the 1.00-1.40 area who brings an offensive reputation of any sort—Greg Chase, Kyle Platzer, Patrick Russell—is not progressing in a way we associate with future NHL players.
  • Joey Laleggia is listed as a forward on my list, but much of his season has been on defense. Impossible to properly dissect his season.

DEFENSE, 2016-17 EST POINTS PER 60 (EVENS)

  • Stats via Prospect-Stats.
  • Mark Fayne appears to be having a good time.
  • Matt Benning spent two games in the AHL, but even in a short sample size he showed something.
  • David Musil is having his best offensive season. Doesn’t mean a thing. There isn’t much we can take from 5×5 D scoring if the player is a defensive type. Luck is the likeliest explanation of the Musil surge, and that is unfair but true.
  • Jordan Oesterle probably runs this number past 1.00/60 by the end of the year. I hope he makes it.
  • Griffin Reinhart and Dillon Simpson, like Musil, are not likely to be substantial contributors at 5×5 offense during their respective careers.

I talk about all these kids, and cheer for them. The cold hard truth is that very few of them will skate in an NHL game, and even fewer will contribute to wins. The Finn is the one to watch, from tonight until the moment he leaves town.

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LadiesloveSmid

Rogers place recommendations?

I guess I’ll see Subban, hope he is rusty though.

Jaxon

Lander’s AHL season is pretty impressive. Highest PPG since 2005-2006 season:

1. Ryan Getzlaf 2005-06 – 1.94
2. Brandon Bochenski 2006-07 – 1.89
3. Mark Arcobello 2013-14 – 1.87
4. Jason Krog 2006-07 – 1.82
5. Corey Perry 2005-06 – 1.79
6. Anton Lander 2016-17 – 1.79

Note about Getzlaf and Perry. Their 2005-06 team was stacked with 7 future NHL scorers in Dustin Penner, PA Parenteau, Curtis Glencross, Chris Kunitz and Bobby Ryan (for the playoffs). That is a lot of firepower on one AHL team. Lander doesn’t have near the support this season.

Muletrain97

Going to the Condors-Reign game tonight and will post a review of Pool Party and the game later. Deuces!

raventalon40

hunter1909: That’s one of the problems with the Taylor Hall Oilers. Pampered star players who thought fighting was beneath them.

Larsson is a tough defenseman. Maroon is a tough winger. So is Lucic. Kassian is a psycho. Nurse, he’s already trending toward Bengal tiger status. Now compare these players to Patrick O’Sullivan, Nillsson, Gagner etc.

Chiarelli’s turned this team into a kind of Murderer’s Row. Hall, in his way, was just trying to show them he belonged.

It’s painfully obvious that Taylor Hall loves the Edmonton Oilers.

http://imgur.com/tLHtbrR

Diablo

Just reading over the shift-by-shift summary of Jesse’s game last night – sounds like he dominated the game playing on the 2nd line. Perhaps this is why Chia resisted sending him to the minors – they didn’t feel like he’d be challenged enough? Now he goes down to get his timing and confidence back, then comes back up after the deadline for the stretch run.

Or they didn’t know about the 39 game thing. Nah – its probably the latter.

Looking forward to tonights BOA – we get Calgary on the second night of a B2B for them, with a chance to create some separation in the standings with a win.

frjohnk

I said this yesterday afternoon. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. 🙂

&;:
frjohnk says:
January 13, 2017 at 4:22 pm

And speaking of tomorrows game,
we win, 5 points up on the Flames
we lose, 1 point up on the Flames

EDIT: And I should add that I expect NJ to beat the Flames tonight because Hall and Kassian are best of friends and Hall will win this one for his BFF Kassian. Pretty sure I read something along those lines today.

Hall with the game winner for his BFF.

If we make the playoffs over Calgary by a point, then we can say Hall helped us make the playoffs.

treevojo

Georges,

Georges who can’t sleep brings the heat.

Apparently not all the intellectuals got the memo of sticking together.

hunter1909

Melman:
hunter1909,

You’re 100% right. Pampered star players who don’t fight are cancers and garbage.See: Malkin, OV, Jagr, Seguin, MacKinnon, Tavares, Stamkos

I have full respect for his repeatedly saying he loved the City and was pissed he got traded

Try this: I used to watch the Dynasty. The Dynasty had 5 types of players:

Skill – Gretzky, Kurri, Coffey, Simpson

Killers with skill – Messier, Anderson

Killers + Rats – McSorely, Semenko, Linseman, Tikkannen

Foot Soldiers(with quality) – MacT, Huddy, Lowe

Great Goalies – Fuhr, Moog, Ranford

Compare this to the recent Oilers:

Skill – Hall, Eberle, RNH, Yakupov

Killers with Skill – Maroon, Lucic, Nurse

Killers + Rats – Kassian, Gribya

Foot Soldiers(with quality) – n/a

Great Goalies – n/a

Basically, the pre-Chiarelli Oilers were built like a pre-Civil War Alabama plantation bird bath.

hunter1909

Melman: You’re 100% right. Pampered star players who don’t fight are cancers and garbage. See: Malkin, OV, Jagr, Seguin, MacKinnon, Tavares, Stamkos

Sigh.

Reading comprehension class cancelled this week?

How about if I put it this way?: Fuck up the tail end of a DYNASTY through incredible mismanagement over a 15 year period(sorry if my 15 years timeline is a year or two off). Draft 1st overall multiple times, without managing to draft a single defencman in any of these generational opportunity situations…just keep drafting physically undersized types to name one example RNH. Tell these players(not named Yakupov) they’re all “special” in true millennial participation medal fashion – while the other 29 NHL teams look on angrily/jealously. Have a rotating coaching carousel that includes Dallas “The Snake” Eakins, plus the ridiculous sight of MacT standing at the bench for that 10 game(forgive me if it was a few games less) stint which helped no one aside from further proving the absolute level of stupidity that is MacT. Miss the playoffs 11 years running, tying the NHL record.

Hire Chiarelli, who after a few teething problems *cough Reinhart cough* has the team in 5th in the Western Conference, well in the hunt for 3rd place as soon as tonight possibly – provided they beat Calgary Saturday night.

nelson88

Zelepukin:
Lander was made for the AHL.

Strongly suspect he was also made for the NHL. Hope to see it soon with another NHL team willing to give him a legitimate shot.

Another Kyle Brodziak situation. Ass hats

Georges

stevezie,

I’m going to try to counter your points on why “the turnaround” was inevitable. I’ve got nothing but respect for you, man. It’s late. I can’t sleep. Weird stuff happens.

Taylor Hall is a great hockey player, but if you add up a full season of a sophomore Connor McDavid, a full season of a healthy Klefbom, a full season of an adjusted-to-Edmonton Sekera, a full season of an adjusted-to-starting-in-Edmonton Talbot, a hitting-his-stride-right-out-of-the-park Draisatl (underrated one), a DRAMATICALLY improved Nurse, and a full season of Patrick Maroon you more than cover the loss of Taylor Hall.

1. Taylor Hall is a great hockey player.

CMD’s Oilers record (with Hall) in his first season: 45 GP. 17-25-3. CMD and Hall are not good enough to lift 2015-16 Oilers out of basement much less get them to contend.

2. A full season of a sophomore Connor McDavid.

Let’s compare 1st year CMD to 2nd year CMD:

5v5 on-ice GF60
1st year 3.44
2nd year 3.28

5v5 on-ice GA60
1st year 3.35
2nd year 2.07

5v4 on-ice GF60
1st year 7.72
2nd year 9.39

Sophomore CMD’s improved 5v5 results are because of a lower GA60 and not, as you suggest, a higher GF60. Credit the revamped defense. While CMD “went from great to maybe the best player in the world” his P/GP went from 1.07 to 1.14. This means he was already very close to being the best player in the world last year.

Sophomore CMD does have a much better GF60 rate at 5v4. A big difference from this year to last on the first unit PP is add Lucic subtract Hall.

3. A full season of healthy Klefbom.

Klefbom’s 5v5 GF%
15-16 46.2
16-17 43.8

Klefbom’s 5v4 GF60
15-16 5.89
16-17 7.68

Klefbom’s 4v5 GA60
15-16 2.93
16-17 4.64

So far, Klefbom’s numbers are worse this season than last. You can point out that Klefbom’s partner for the better part of the year has been Larsson.

Larsson’s 5v5 GF% with and without Klefbom:
With 45.0
W/O 56.5

Klefbom’s 5v5 GF% with and without Larsson
With 45.0
W/O 43.5

Larsson has played 318 games. Klefbom has played 151. They’re both young defenders. Only one of them is a veteran. A veteran defenseman can handle his minutes. Klefbom’s still learning.

4. A full season of an adjusted-to-Edmonton Sekera.

Sekera’s numbers are better at 5v5 and 4v5 and about the same at 5v4. But I don’t think he gets there on his own. He has a somewhat controversial partner who boosts his results with his microstat magic. So I’ll still take issue with the idea of 2nd year Sekera improving the Oilers on his own.

5. A full season of an adjusted-to-starting-in-Edmonton Talbot.

Talbot’s Save %
15-16 91.7
16-17 91.7

Oilers GAA
15-16 2.95
16-17 2.66

Hmm, same save percentage, lower goals against. How does that happen? Only way is with lower shots against. Lowering shots against is a job for the defense. We have a few new workers in the defense department, I hear.

6. A hitting-his-stride-right-out-of-the-park Draisatl.

Drai’s P60
15-16 2.35
16-17 2.81

Drai’s 5v5 P60
15-16 2.22
16-17 1.93

Drai’s 5v4 P60
15-16 2.89
16-17 7.43 (!!)

The out-of-the-park numbers come on the first unit PP, not 5v5. At 5v5, he’s not doing as well as last year. I’m trying to think of a net front presence that wasn’t around last year. Give me a second.

7. A DRAMATICALLY improved Nurse.

Well he’s no longer a big factor this year but let’s take a look at the dramatic improvement anyway.

Nurse’s 5v5 GF%
15-16 41.7
16-17 45.1

Nurse’s 4v5 GA60
15-16 6.80
16-17 5.44

So he’s better but not dramatically better. One thing has improved for Nurse. He plays less minutes. And that’s possible because Chia brought in 3 new defensemen who, it turns out, can all play and handle minutes.

8. A full season of Patrick Maroon.

Maroon played 16 games with us last year. He’s played 44 so far this year.

Maroon P60
15/16 3.35
16/17 2.05

So you can see… Oh screw it. I can’t say anything bad about Maroon. Like everyone else, he does better with CMD. But he seems to do just fine with anyone. He’s great. I don’t know if a full year with him would have been enough to make the team better though.

There you have it. The Oilers’ “turnaround” cannot be traced to the improvements of the players we already had. It can be traced to the arrival of players we didn’t have.

Off to bed.

Melman

hunter1909,

You’re 100% right. Pampered star players who don’t fight are cancers and garbage. See: Malkin, OV, Jagr, Seguin, MacKinnon, Tavares, Stamkos

I have full respect for his repeatedly saying he loved the City and was pissed he got traded

stevezie

hunter1909: In other words, no need to worry you with facts.

Just because you don’t understand ’em, that don’t mean they’re not there.

Hall and Larsson have the same number of career fights, by the way. Unless you count Larsson getting beat by Brett Ritchie without taking his gloves off, but then you should really count Hall getting decked last night so it’s even again.

Also, fact-master, you mentioned Gagner, Neilson and O’Sullivan as examples of fight-fearing losers of the Hall era. Two of them never played a game with Hall, and Sam Gagner averaged a fight a season with the Oil.

Let’s hope to God Connor takes his fighting prowess to the NHL with him (he was kicking that guy’s ass in junior before he punched the glass). I’d hate for you to say a few years from now that the problem with the McDavid Oilers were more stars unable to win a fight.

But I like Nurse a lot more than POS. I’ll give you that.

And I agree that Hall loved the Oilers. Always a shame to lose a guy willing to re-sign here.

hunter1909

godot10: Hall isn’t Messier or Orr when it comes to fighting. He is lousy at it.

That’s one of the problems with the Taylor Hall Oilers. Pampered star players who thought fighting was beneath them.

Larsson is a tough defenseman. Maroon is a tough winger. So is Lucic. Kassian is a psycho. Nurse, he’s already trending toward Bengal tiger status. Now compare these players to Patrick O’Sullivan, Nillsson, Gagner etc.

Chiarelli’s turned this team into a kind of Murderer’s Row. Hall, in his way, was just trying to show them he belonged.

It’s painfully obvious that Taylor Hall loves the Edmonton Oilers.

hunter1909

stevezie:
kinger_OIL,

There is nothing revisionist about this. I said this all summer long. If you really want me to, I’ll find the posts. Depending on work goes.

So I reject all your camps like they were Crystal Lake. I said it this morning, I’ll say it now: most people who were critical of Chia still didn’t think the sky was falling.

Here’s my take: If, instead of trading him for Larsson, Chiarelli had strapped Taylor Hall to the railroad tracks in front of a steaming load fresh Alberta Oil and found out for sure just how heartless, gutless, spineless, brainless and injury-prone Hall really was (or wasn’t!), even then the Oilers still would have improved.

Taylor Hall is a great hockey player, but if you add up a full season of a sophomore Connor McDavid, a full season of a healthy Klefbom, a full season of an adjusted-to-Edmonton Sekera, a full season of an adjusted-to-starting-in-Edmonton Talbot, a hitting-his-stride-right-out-of-the-park Draisatl (underrated one), a DRAMATICALLY improved Nurse, and a full season of Patrick Maroon you more than cover the loss of Taylor Hall.

Really think about how long Klefbom and McDavid were hurt, how bad Talbot was the first several months, how bad Nurse was. That Eberle Changing these things alone were going to get you close, and over the summer McDavid went from great to maybe the best player in the world. That’s going to be worth a lot.

Plus, I’m not looking to deny Chia credit where it is due. Benning is a great signing! Maroon was a great trade! Talbo has been an all-star (in my mind)! Sekera is working out well! Even Lucic- who has not blown my socks off and is not on a good contract at all- is, in the context of this year, a lot better than replacement.

So, again, even if Taylor Hall had been separated from the puck the “ol’snidely whiplash way”, I think the Oilers still would have improved.

Getting Adam Larsson, a fine player who is much better than a wet sack of Hall-scented railroad mush, certainly elevates us a few spots even higher than that!

And hey, if we had done something sane with the right side we’d be even better still!

I won’t get into if we hadn’t traded Hall for Larsson because that’s not the point. We’ve moved on from debating the Hall trade to accepting that it has happened and debating whether it is the reason for “the turnaround”. (Progress!)

I find it hilariously obvious that it is not, and was actually a negative factor. You find it hilariously obvious that it is, or was at least a positive factor.

Yet, despite living in these wildly different realities, we both make our way in the world.

Fascinating.

P.S “Bad” as Eberle aas been this year, if he played at this pace last season it would have only made a six point difference. Nug missed almost thirty games last year too. I’ll grand Pouliot is significantly worse, but Letestu comes close to making that up.

I still think this team sans Larsson easily clears last year’s point total.

*I’m not saying Eberle has been “good” this year, just that while he hasn’t scored, it’s not like he’s been a totally useless hack.

In other words, no need to worry you with facts.

hunter1909

jm363561: (We intellectuals have to stick together.)

I can see the scene: Intellectuals, standing shoulder to shoulder against the unwashed smartphone addicts.

Chachi: “Edmonton fans are the worst, and this season in particular they have reached a new level of ignorant.”

Non-intellectual Oiler fans, like Trump “Deplorables” consider this to be a badge of honour.

Chachi

jm363561: I agree entirely. You can debate the tone but the content is always worth reading. (We intellectuals have to stick together.)

I agree with this; where else can you get intellectual gems like, “Edmonton fans are the worst, and this season in particular they have reached a new level of ignorant.” Why in the world would anyone take that the wrong way?

Derek

spoiler:
Well there’s nothing wrong with Pujo’s vision and passing.

I didn’t realize just how young this guy was. Second youngest guy to play in the AHL? No wonder he struggles at times with the big club. That and not knowing the language.

spoiler

Well there’s nothing wrong with Pujo’s vision and passing.

Picturesque

Happy for Lander! He gets sent down and scores 3 in his first game back. People have said he’s a character guy and I can see it in getting this hatrick – not letting this demotion put him in a funk. Really hope this offense can translate in the big league when he returns.

Gret99zky

Wait. You get your hat back in Bakersfield? Sweet.

stevezie

N64,

This was pretty funny.

Gret99zky

Hatrick for Lander!

spoiler

Lander smokes one past the keeper for a hatty.

stevezie

kinger_OIL,

There is nothing revisionist about this. I said this all summer long. If you really want me to, I’ll find the posts. Depending on work goes.

So I reject all your camps like they were Crystal Lake. I said it this morning, I’ll say it now: most people who were critical of Chia still didn’t think the sky was falling.

Here’s my take: If, instead of trading him for Larsson, Chiarelli had strapped Taylor Hall to the railroad tracks in front of a steaming load fresh Alberta Oil and found out for sure just how heartless, gutless, spineless, brainless and injury-prone Hall really was (or wasn’t!), even then the Oilers still would have improved.

Taylor Hall is a great hockey player, but if you add up a full season of a sophomore Connor McDavid, a full season of a healthy Klefbom, a full season of an adjusted-to-Edmonton Sekera, a full season of an adjusted-to-starting-in-Edmonton Talbot, a hitting-his-stride-right-out-of-the-park Draisatl (underrated one), a DRAMATICALLY improved Nurse, and a full season of Patrick Maroon you more than cover the loss of Taylor Hall.

Really think about how long Klefbom and McDavid were hurt, how bad Talbot was the first several months, how bad Nurse was. That Eberle Changing these things alone were going to get you close, and over the summer McDavid went from great to maybe the best player in the world. That’s going to be worth a lot.

Plus, I’m not looking to deny Chia credit where it is due. Benning is a great signing! Maroon was a great trade! Talbo has been an all-star (in my mind)! Sekera is working out well! Even Lucic- who has not blown my socks off and is not on a good contract at all- is, in the context of this year, a lot better than replacement.

So, again, even if Taylor Hall had been separated from the puck the “ol’snidely whiplash way”, I think the Oilers still would have improved.

Getting Adam Larsson, a fine player who is much better than a wet sack of Hall-scented railroad mush, certainly elevates us a few spots even higher than that!

And hey, if we had done something sane with the right side we’d be even better still!

I won’t get into if we hadn’t traded Hall for Larsson because that’s not the point. We’ve moved on from debating the Hall trade to accepting that it has happened and debating whether it is the reason for “the turnaround”. (Progress!)

I find it hilariously obvious that it is not, and was actually a negative factor. You find it hilariously obvious that it is, or was at least a positive factor.

Yet, despite living in these wildly different realities, we both make our way in the world.

Fascinating.

P.S “Bad” as Eberle aas been this year, if he played at this pace last season it would have only made a six point difference. Nug missed almost thirty games last year too. I’ll grand Pouliot is significantly worse, but Letestu comes close to making that up.

I still think this team sans Larsson easily clears last year’s point total.

*I’m not saying Eberle has been “good” this year, just that while he hasn’t scored, it’s not like he’s been a totally useless hack.

Gret99zky

Wow. Griffin wearing Stan Weir’s face. Cool.

Gret99zky

Puju with a beauty assist.

spoiler

That was pretty Finnish.

Zelepukin

Lander was made for the AHL.

Gret99zky

LOL.

Anyone watching a feed with the cracked up cameraman with a busted viewfinder?

jm363561

–hudson–: I enjoy reading Bruce Wayne’s posts, please don’t make this a hostile forum for them.

I agree entirely. You can debate the tone but the content is always worth reading. (We intellectuals have to stick together.)

StixMalone

Flames lose tonight so tomorrow we better not pick them up. Kick em when they’re down! I want a regulation win please! Kassian can go crazy on Tkachuk as well. Connor hat trick, Talbot shut out, Eberle and Nuge score. My lord this sounds like a letter to Santa. I better stop……

jm363561

Lowetide: Lines change about every 10 minutes, and I am pretty sure Puljujarvi is going to geta push. There is no controversy here.

Lines changing every 10 minutes is an extremely appropriate developmental program for Blender Todd’s Oilers.

spoiler

1 point for Gryffindor!

StixMalone

godot10:
My 2 cents on Hall-Kassian:

Hall DIDN’t turtle.Kassian clocked him with a left to the face knocking Hall off balance, and there was no way Hall was going to try to recover after having lost his balance.At that point he was in a vulnerable position and nothing good would be the result.

So it was an eye for an eye, an elbow/(buttend)? for a wicked left hand to the noggin from Kassian.

It was a one punch fight…which is typical for a heavyweight fighter vs. a skilled non-fighter.

Hall isn’t Messier or Orr when it comes to fighting. He is lousy at it.

Yeah last time he fought someone he broke a knee or ankle. A lower body injury of some sort. He really can’t fight. That’s the real reason we traded him come to think…..

--hudson--

spoiler: Always thought he was more of a Magic 8 ball kinda guy.

I enjoy reading Bruce Wayne’s posts, please don’t make this a hostile forum for them.

spoiler

Ellis pretty shaky handling that one. Luckily there was no goal.

frjohnk

Flames lose

Let’s make it two in a row tomorrow for them.

spoiler

I’m not sure about the whole chimp thing in Bakersfield. Planet of the Apes still scares me after all these years.

spoiler

Pujo sure likes to set up for that one-timer. Nice, Lander..

spoiler

Derek,

36 shots against by the Devs. Hopefully the Flames spend a whole 6 months in that leaky boat.

JD_Wry

tcho: Phlegms!

I thought it was fLames. ?

Derek

Man.

NJ outplayed Calgary in the same fashion they got out played by the Oilers on the second night of a back to back. What the hell was that all about, they (Calgary) looked like ass!

tcho

Hahaha! Suck it, Phlegms!

spoiler

Whew. Thank you, New Jersey, all is forgiven!

spoiler

Twelve and a half seconds…

spoiler

Chachi: He can’t help if that’s where he landed on his “Jump to Conclusions Mat”

Always thought he was more of a Magic 8 ball kinda guy.