KEITH GRETZKY’S WHITEBOARD, VOLUME 1

by Lowetide

I will be honest with you, it is not certain to me who should be named as the owner of the whiteboard in procurement at this time. Of course the buck stops at Peter Chiarelli, but I think Keith Gretzky, Duane Sutter and Bob Green may all have input into this area of the organization at some level. Edmonton is officially difficult to read from the outside at this time. Last year, I suggested it was Bob Green, this year we will give it to Gretzky and apologize if we are wrong.

In today’s post, I am going to detail players who are UFA, RFA and signed to current minor league deals. The idea is this: Teams are always in fluid motion, so some of the youngsters signed to deals are no longer considered part of the future—and some of the kids who are currently free agents are being evaluated by the NHL team at this time. Constant motion.

CURRENT UFA’S

The NHL free agents—Kris Russell, Matt Hendricks, Eric Gryba, Andrew Ference, Jonas Gustavsson, Tyler Pitlick—are surely under the purview of the general manager, so we will discuss those things at a later time. Here are the minor league UFAs:

  • LD Mark Fraser. I think the Oilers have to move on from him, based only on the sheer number of LH blue on the pro roster—and the lefties who are coming from the amateur side. Caleb Jones is already signed, while Ziyat Paigin and William Lagesson could get contracts over the summer. I would guess that Fraser is unlikely to return.

CURRENT RFA’S

The NHL RFAs—Leon Draisaitl, Zack Kassian, Anton Lander, Iiro Pakarinen, Taylor Beck—would be in the Chiarelli wing of the conversation and we will get to them in due time.

  • C-L Jujhar Khaira. This young man could be a useful value contract next season, as his entry-level deal expires and the club looks to replace Matt Hendricks on the port side. Todd McLellan has other options, including Anton Lander, so NHL employment is not assured. I will guess he receives a one-way deal for something less than $1 million a year. Should be an Oiler opening night 2016-17.
  • LD Griffin Reinhart. He will get signed, and I think it is reasonable to suggest Reinhart will be part of the NHL team this fall—or in another NHL town. Not a chance in hell a former No. 4 overall selection passes through waivers, and I do think there is at least a chance the Vegas Golden Knights take him in expansion.
  • LD Dillon Simpson. I expect he gets extended, but (unlike Khaira and Reinhart) my feeling is that Simpson is offered a two-way NHL deal. He showed well enough, but probably ranks No. 9 or No. 10 on the NHL depth chart when everyone is healthy.
  • LD Jordan Oesterle. The hits just keep on coming. I think he could go either way, but his foot speed is damned intriguing.
  • LD David Musil. It is time to let him go, there is no future here and Musil may have better luck in another organization—preferably one with fewer than 20 left-handed defensemen.
  • L Joey Laleggia. His position change is perhaps a tell, and could indicate the Oilers see some potential for him at this position. I will guess an AHL deal is offered, but it may be close. Peter Chiarelli employed undersized skill wingers in Boston, but they were very productive.
  • L Mitch Moroz. The progress of Jujhar Khaira (chosen one round behind Moroz in 2012) is an example of a smooth transition to pro hockey. Moroz has had a tougher time, as his checking role in junior (which blossomed to a feature role as he became more senior) has eluded the young man in the AHL. He was a high pick, so Edmonton may decide to extend him, but the numbers suggest the team may move on or offer a minor league deal.
  • LC Bogdan Yakimov. I think he is done. Edmonton needs room on the 50-man, and the young center left them hamstrung for the entire season.
  • LC Jere Sallinen. Easy call. He will not be back.
  • RC Zachary Pochiro. He is in a difficult spot, roster player dealt for NHL player to make the 50-man work. I do not believe he is offered an NHL or AHL deal this offseason.
  • G Eetu Laurikainen. He will not return, Oilers will move on.

MINOR LEAGUE FREE AGENTS

  • L Scott Allen. I think the Oilers like him a lot. This is a player who is getting the Moroz minutes, and he is a big winger (6.03, 200) who fits the Chiarelli style. I suspect he gets an NHL deal.
  • C Josh Currie. It depends on how things roll, but he could get an NHL deal, too. I am usually wrong on the skill guys, but Currie is a very good AHL player and signing him may require an NHL contract.
  • L Joey Benik. His trip to the ECHL probably means he won’t be back, but he has AHL skill for sure.
  • RD Bryce Aneloski. He is a righty, and that alone makes him a player of interest. I will guess there is discussion of an AHL deal.
  • R Jaedon Descheneau. I like his speed a lot and he does have skill. I always love these players and the Oilers never ever sign them. I will guess they pass on him.

GRADUATING JUNIOR FREE AGENTS

  • RD Ryan Mantha, Niagra IceDogs. He was drafted by the NY Rangers, but they chose not to sign him. Mantha has performed very well as an overager (1996) and someone will sign him.
  • RD Aaron Irving, Everett Silvertips. It may be just an AHL deal, but I believe he can play pro and he addresses an extreme area of need for the organization.
  • L Ryan Graham, Swift Current Broncos. Fast winger with a terrific shot, Oilers need a bunch of these guys, maybe one will cash.
  • RD Darren Raddysh, Erie Otters. Former teammate of Connor McDavid, he is a steady defender with two-way ability. Nothing flashy, but he can play.
  • RC Austin Glover, Red Deer Rebels. He has good size and speed, enough skill to project to the pro level if he can stay healthy.
  • L Dawson Leedahl, Regina Pats. Big winger, good speed, skill and plays a responsible game.
  • L Dominic Zwerger, Spokane Chiefs. Fast and skilled winger blossomed this season.

Next time we chat about the whiteboard, I will throw in some college names and a few other CHL players who have been performing well this winter.

131 comments
0

You may also like

0 0 vote
Article Rating
131 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

spoiler:
I wrote several hours ago thatwe know from Economics that value is subjective.

The end of this thread is excellent proof of that statement.

This sums it up nicely. If you feel Talbot is more valuable to this team than Hall it is hard to argue that. If that is the trade in question then that is one thing, but my whole point was not to judge Chia on one trade but to judge the whole as best I can.

Is my process flawed? Yup. Not perfect But I neither blindly praise nor blindly hate Chia.

He inherited an awful D group and he has improved it. In order to do so he traded away some pretty good chips. Is that his “fault?” No. Definitely not.

But he had to get those right, especially considering the value he gave up. Otherwise, as LT says, his job would have been in jeopardy. Not that I have ever called for Chia to be fired.

Like I said, for me his trading is a C+, his drafting is still incomplete but his signings are A-. And yeah, agree I really like the Talbot deal and liked it from the start. I love the Sekera signing too. A lot.

I thought a B was not a bad grade. Anyway my whole point was to dispel Kinger’s notion that there are only two camps/viewpoints on Chiarelli. I don’t think that is giving credit to this fanbase.

YKOil

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
kinger_OIL,
You have made this point several times but I have to say I totally disagree with you on this one.

It is not binary.

I, and many others belong to a 3rd camp you fail to mention.

Chia is an okay/middle-of-the-pack GM. He does well on small trades and acquisitions: Russell, Benning, Kassian, Talbot. He has done a little worse on some bigger trades.
Overall he has been okay, which is far better than past 10 years.

My read is much the same with the twist that I think PC loses the deal (whatever that is) when he feels he HAS to do something. No pressure on the smaller deals means he makes better deals but when the pressure is applied (from PC’s own end of it) other GM’s know he will work to close a deal, almost any deal, and that is when the better ones take advantage.

The signing of Gus and Korpiskoski is really, to my mind, just the work of a GM – and they all do these small deal things – who signs one of ‘their’ guys or a ‘guy they have always liked’ every now and then. Wish it hurt less but they all do it so its hard for me to get too worked up about it.

Still a far better GM than anything we have had since Sather and Lowe-pre-2007.

10 effing years. I had to completely disengage at one point or grown man tears.

Shattenkirk… not a fan of craziness in terms of either assets to secure or cap space to pay out. Here’s hoping PC doesn’t feel like he HAS to do this one.

spoiler

I wrote several hours ago that we know from Economics that value is subjective.

The end of this thread is excellent proof of that statement.

treevojo,

I am at work now so can’t respond as thoroughly but I would say that is a very nuanced, interesting take that makes a much more compelling discussion than a quanitity for quantity argument. Kudos.

Let me get back to you.

treevojo

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

Ya absolutely

That’s what this place is for.

Healthy debate.

How about this?

Talbot has more value to an NHL team then Taylor Hall.

What does that do to the balance sheet?

treevojo,

No worries. I didn’t think you were coming at me personally.

Just trying to make the point that there is a 3rd option beyond:

Chia is amazing or Chia sucks, as Kinger and others suggest.

Can we not like some Chia moves, hate others and conclude he is an okay GM, much better than his predecessors but not without his flaws, too?

treevojo

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

Easy.

I am just commenting on the now.

Not trying to come at you personally.

Not making any grand statements.

frjohnk

who: I love how everyone wants to spend our 1st round pick AND prospects for a three month rental of Shattenkirk,

yes EVERYONE

treevojo: Yak and Shultz were extremely diminished assets at the time chia got his hands on them.

Hard to blame him for that.

Ferraris that had been T-boned by a 18 wheelers.

Point me to where I blamed Chia for the trainwreck he inherited? I never have done so.

treevojo:
NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

I would argue that it has been helpful to the teams record this year.

And you could well be right.

If you just want to look at one year and count the number of NHL players in the lineup now then sure.

But if you are looking at the totality of the record you can’t just look at this year alone.

I could improve by that metric if I traded our 1st rounder right now for Brouwwr. He is an NHL player. Might improve our 4th line this year.

Is that how you want to assess my abilities as GM?

And for crying out loud I am calling Chia an average GM. What is wrong with that? In my opinion he has done well on signings and not well on trades. Drafting remains to be seen but he has spent a lot of his picks.

treevojo

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

It was not meant as one Ferrari equals one player. Generally speaking.

So I was not even saying Hall = a Ferrari. Just high pedigree assets (1st, Schultz, Yak, Hall as a collective)

Sports cars for SUVs.

Yak and Shultz were extremely diminished assets at the time chia got his hands on them.

Hard to blame him for that.

Ferraris that had been T-boned by 18 wheelers.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

stevezie,

Nah, I’m not in any way regretful for that move. It was time to move on for both parties. Good for him that he found an excellent spot to ply his trade and I’m glad that he has turned it around but the team and the division weren’t right for him and that happens. No tear here, same with Marincin.

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

Fair enough and I generally agree

treevojo

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

I would argue that it has been helpful to the teams record this year.

treevojo

treevojo: Balance sheet so far

2 NHL players going out

5 NHL players coming in

Well that is not helpful. Come on. Quantity is not the name of the game.

You have to look at both quality and quantity.

Otherwise I could trade my first overall pick for the next ten 7th rounders of the Pittsuburgh Penguins.

One pick going out.

10 picks coming in.

I am a hero?

Come on now.

who

I love how everyone wants to spend our 1st round pick AND prospects for a three month rental of Shattenkirk, a third pairing Dman with a good power play resume.
Oh, and apparently he would be the only dman on our team who can make a stretch pass. PLEASE!

russ99: You can’t blame Chiarelli when previous regimes’ mismanagement devalued our Ferrari’s down to the level of a beat up old Dodge.

Hmm. Point me to where I blamed Chia for that? I did say he was miles better than MacT and Tambo. I also said in a prior post that a lot of the responsibility for this lies with his predecessors. Chia inherited a decimated D group and got to work on fixing it. I gave him a nod for acknowledging a problem MacT did not recognize.

Man, it is not like I am even giving Chia a bad grade. He gets a B so far from me. Why is it that you all make it out to be like “you’re either with him or against him.”

There is a middle ground here. I am in the middle.

treevojo

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
Trade balance sheet (let me know if I am missing anything)

Traded assets:
Hall, Yakupov, Marincin, Schultz, Purcell, Scrivens, Ewanyk,16th, 33rd, 57th, 79th, 93rd, 107th,184th

Acquired assets:
Larsson, Talbot, Reinhart, Gryba, Maroon, Kassian, 83rd, 91st, 204th, anda third this year (roughly 73rd)

My grade?C+

If you add the assets going out, I think the value is greater than the value of assets coming in.

I hear your arguments that the team has more balance and the D is better. But as far as trading asset for asset goes, if I have a Lamborghini, two Ferraris that need a bit of fixing up and a Pagani Zonda in my garage and I trade the two Ferraris for a Land Rover Defender and a Jeep Wrangler my garage has more balance. Did it take a brilliant mind to make those trades when you have that kind of assets to trade?

Nope.

Next I will review his signings later, but I rate them much higher:
Sekera, Benning, Gryba, Russell to start

That alone is B+/A- material.

When I look at the totality of his record, that puts Chia firmly in B territory for me. Much better than MacT or Tambo, but I am not handing him the keys to trade my portfolio without checking with me first (if I am his boss).

Balance sheet so far

2 NHL players going out

5 NHL players coming in

russ99

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

It was not meant as one Ferrari equals one player. Generally speaking.

So I was not even saying Hall = a Ferrari. Just high pedigree assets (1st, Schultz, Yak, Hall as a collective)

Sports cars for SUVs.

You can’t blame Chiarelli when previous regimes’ mismanagement devalued our Ferrari’s down to the level of a beat up old Dodge.

SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

It was not meant as one Ferrari equals one player. Generally speaking.

So I was not even saying Hall = a Ferrari. Just high pedigree assets (1st, Schultz, Yak, Hall as a collective)

Sports cars for SUVs.

stevezie

SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

Schultz is one area in which I am willing to cut Chia all kinds of slack. I’m kind of surprised more peple aren’t angry about that trade in light of the season he is having now. I guess we all remember watching him play too clearly.

stevezie

Ca$h-McMoney!: LT,

When it finally comes time to post the mythical balance picture, just go ahead and post a picture of this comment.

Your comment implies you don’t understand his- or are at least not giving it much consideration. “Balance” is good, not god.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

Who exactly are the two Ferrari’s that got traded? Hall yes, but if the 2nd is Yakupov (my other guess would be the picks for GR and on that one I’m gonna fault the scouts as much as Chia) I can’t disagree more. Yak may figure it out one day (ala Mr. Schultz) but at the moment there is no reputable hockey fan/watcher/analyst that would classify him as a Ferrari.

stevezie

frjohnk,

Shattenkirk is so perfect that I suspect if he was willing to sign here the deal would already be done. I agree we can’t deplete for a rental.

Centre of attention,

This is certainly true, but I don’t think spending to the cap requires hollow threats of moving the team. Plus, if the Oilers ever win the cup Katz will be making money by the wheelbarrow.

spoiler,

You may be right.

PhrankLee

NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker",

Yes. Nailbitingly so.

PhrankLee,

Chia has traded lots of picks away for sure. Attempt to accelerate the rebuild. Let’s hope his bets pan out as prospect cupboard is looking thin.

Ca$h-McMoney!

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
Trade balance sheet (let me know if I am missing anything)

Traded assets:
Hall, Yakupov, Marincin, Schultz, Purcell, Scrivens, Ewanyk,16th, 33rd, 57th, 79th, 93rd, 107th,184th

Acquired assets:
Larsson, Talbot, Reinhart, Gryba, Maroon, Kassian, 83rd, 91st, 204th, anda third this year (roughly 73rd)

My grade?C+

If you add the assets going out, I think the value is greater than the value of assets coming in.

I hear your arguments that the team has more balance and the D is better. But as far as trading asset for asset goes, if I have a Lamborghini, two Ferraris that need a bit of fixing up and a Pagani Zonda in my garage and I trade the two Ferraris for a Land Rover Defender and a Jeep Wrangler my garage has more balance. Did it take a brilliant mind to make those trades when you have that kind of assets to trade?

Nope.

Next I will review his signings later, but I rate them much higher:
Sekera, Benning, Gryba, Russell to start

That alone is B+/A- material.

When I look at the totality of his record, that puts Chia firmly in B territory for me. Much better than MacT or Tambo, but I am not handing him the keys to trade my portfolio without checking with me first (if I am his boss).

LT,

When it finally comes time to post the mythical balance picture, just go ahead and post a picture of this comment.

russ99

I don’t think we need to worry too much about who plays and sits at D, injury will allow us to utilize 8 defensemen over the course of a season, and this year has proven the worth of a Gryba and Oesterle to fill in.

I see this for next season, assuming Russell is signed and we trade or lose Davidson to Vegas, which seems pretty firm so far:

Sekera – Larsson
Klefbom – Russell
Nurse – Benning

Cheap veteran FA – Oesterle

I don’t see a move for that prototypical RH point shot D, since other than Shattenkirk (who’s signing East) UFA are slim pickings, and the only assets GMs will want in return are kids we need to keep.

As for the minors, the lack of projectable skill that can help inexpensively after McDavid’s ELC could lead to a flush of many players and Chia turning to college FAs to replenish.

From LT’s list, I’d suspect only Khaira and Oesterle are safe, and maybe LaLeggia if he can show enough in his new position – along with Reinhart, since they need to get something back when they inevitably move him, akin to what Chicago got for Cam Barker.

Allen and Currie look to have hit their ceilings, so that’s also maybe if they can sign a two-way deal.

PhrankLee
stevezie

Bruce McCurdy,

Well, not exactly. Each game is, by definition, of equal importantance to every other. A GMs worst trade could easily be more important than every other move he makes.

“Darling, i don’t understand why you choose to focus onthe day with the cocktail waitress. That’s just one day! Think of all the good things i did!”

The guy’s not exactly wrong, but I’m not sure it’ll save him.

An over the top example i know. I agree with you that it’s how he does on the balance of all his moves. This was actually the point of the post i wrote which it appears you were responding to?

PhrankLee

frjohnk: Unless the Oilers faceplant from here to the deadline, I dont see them being sellers. If they were in the race and become sellers, imagine the pitchforks.

Yes well I do not expect them to collapse. But I also do not expect them to compete for the division title this year.

WC spot at best, imho. The upcoming gigantic home stand will decide this, I believe.

I, for one, would not scorch the earth at the deadline but there are some guys we have that could get us what we really really need: 2nd round picks. I want 2 2nd rounder so I can trade one at the draft.

It’s time to correct what has been an historically terrible record for the Oilers. 2nd round draft picks.

PhrankLee:
frjohnk,

Hedman pass is a weapon the Oilers do not currently have.

FTFY

Trade balance sheet (let me know if I am missing anything)

Traded assets:
Hall, Yakupov, Marincin, Schultz, Purcell, Scrivens, Ewanyk,16th, 33rd, 57th, 79th, 93rd, 107th,184th

Acquired assets:
Larsson, Talbot, Reinhart, Gryba, Maroon, Kassian, 83rd, 91st, 204th, and a third this year (roughly 73rd)

My grade? C+

If you add the assets going out, I think the value is greater than the value of assets coming in.

I hear your arguments that the team has more balance and the D is better. But as far as trading asset for asset goes, if I have a Lamborghini, two Ferraris that need a bit of fixing up and a Pagani Zonda in my garage and I trade the two Ferraris for a Land Rover Defender and a Jeep Wrangler my garage has more balance. Did it take a brilliant mind to make those trades when you have that kind of assets to trade?

Nope.

Next I will review his signings later, but I rate them much higher:
Sekera, Benning, Gryba, Russell to start

That alone is B+/A- material.

When I look at the totality of his record, that puts Chia firmly in B territory for me. Much better than MacT or Tambo, but I am not handing him the keys to trade my portfolio without checking with me first (if I am his boss).

treevojo

PhrankLee,

If the Oilers are sellers at the deadline I will lose my shit.

I may be in the minority but I believe this team is a couple decent deadline moves from contending this year.

Stud goalie ☑️

Defensive depth ☑️

Best forward in the game☑️

Find a couple high sh% fwds to push down under performers and give forward depth and we could make a real push this year without mortgaging the future.

frjohnk

PhrankLee: I personally think the Oilers will be sellers at the deadline and not buyers.

I think they use the “inhouse rentals” such as Russell, Gryba and Hendricks. They like Russell in the top 4 and Gryba and Hendricks give them depth. Also, they are the type “built for playoff hockey cause of grits” so I dont see any of our 3 UFA’s sold off.

Unless the Oilers faceplant from here to the deadline, I dont see them being sellers. If they were in the race and become sellers, imagine the pitchforks.

PhrankLee

frjohnk,

Yup. Agreed.

I personally think the Oilers will be sellers at the deadline and not buyers.

We must, absolutely must get some picks.

I can still dream about it. He has what I am looking for: elite first pass forehand to forehand pass with CMD on the fly.

As amazing as he is we have nobody to deliver him that pass on this team.

Entry game would change if teams knew they needed to defend the stretch because it wasn’t so much of a gamble any more. It was a stone kold killer.

Headman pass is a weapon the Oilers do not currently have.

bbf_iii

kinger_OIL:
– I will probably post this again, because its at the end of a thread.I had been talking about in Backgammon, the use of snowie, to evalute and redefine backgammon.Snowie evaluates at the end of each game:
1) how lucky/unlucky you were
2) how lucky/unlucky your opponent was
3) what % of optimal each player played
4) how easy/hard the game was to play based on moves of opponent
5) also highlighted each big change in equity in the game, as a result of great or terrible moves
6) Each player gets a “rating” based on above factors

– Staples in his most recent article refers to “major mistakes on Grade A chances”

– I don’t know how he comes up with this, but this is the kind of thing that needs to be incorporated into analysis of a player.All corsi and fenwick don’t have the same impact.A really great move that results in a deke and a goal is the same +1 corsi as a weak wrister shot from the point.

– Same for defence: when a D really makes a bad play, that clearly results in a goal (or awesome chance), that results in a huge swing in “equity”

– Football has a QB rating: interceptions affect rating a lot more than an incomplete pass.A shot that hits the post isn’t even a corsi

– We don’t have measures in hockey to differentiate between a good and bad play: they are all measured equally.

Corsi is not meant to be an all encompassing stat for hockey. It’s just that teams with a high Corsi For % tend to win more. The value of Corsi is that it is more predictive of future success than a lot of other measures (like past wins, goal differential, etc.). You are correct that in a very small sample of comparing one Corsi event to another there isn’t much value, but that was never the purpose. This flaw does not change the fact that good possession teams tend to win more, even if your analysis doesn’t account for shot/chance quality. There are definitely times where a team has good possession numbers but the issues you’ve identified sink their ability to win (think those early Dallas Eakins Oilers where they tried that aggressive swarm and left the slot open all the time). However, overall teams with good possession tend to have more quality shots too just due to the sheer number of total shot attempts.

Also, a shot that hits the post counts as a missed shot and definitely counts as a Corsi event.

Last, the issue that a lot of people have with Staples’ scoring error numbers is that he only calculates the errors when his idea of a Grade A chance occurs. The problem is that most errors/good plays made by players don’t actually end up in Grade A chances, making the sample size really small and potentially not reflective of a player. For example, if Player A makes one mistake all game and it ends up in a Grade A chance, but Player B makes a ton of mistakes but the opposing team can’t get it together and never gets an ensuing chance, this isn’t reflected in the analysis. Goals and Grade A scoring chances are, relative to other events, very rare over the course of a hockey game and focusing only on mistakes when those events happen doesn’t capture a lot of other things that contribute to a player’s value.

treevojo

Bruce McCurdy: My point was that judging a GM’s entire track record on his worst trade is like judging a team’s season on its worst game. It can’t help but be skewed to the negative, regardless of what else may have been accomplished.

So I’m not allowed to judge chiarelli’s tenure in Edmonton based on the Seguin trade?

I guess I will have to put the pitch fork away until the Mcdavid trade!

Bruce McCurdy: My point was that judging a GM’s entire track record on his worst trade is like judging a team’s season on its worst game. It can’t help but be skewed to the negative, regardless of what else may have been accomplished.

Understood. Thanks. I don’t think I am judging it on one trade. I was arguing for looking at the totality of the record and argued Chia is an okay GM. Not amazing. Not horrible.

In isolation, yeah the Reinhart trade is bad but I am not judging Chia solely on any one thing.

treevojo

Lloyd B.,

I see what u did there

frjohnk

PhrankLee:
Having Shattenkirk would allow Larsson to Larsson.

He has one of the best first passes in the game. Imagine someone good enough to hit Connor in full stride more times than not….let that sink in for those looking for zone entry with possession.

He is an accomplished PP wizard, RHS #1-2 D.

Haven’t looked but his I expect his primary assists to be substantial.

He is 27. He will need a raise but he will top out at under 6.

I would love to have him parachute into the top of the pairings.

RHD:
Shattenkirk
Larsson
Benning

Shiny.

Here are the articles he wrote for Players Tribune on elite D.

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/elite-defensemen-101-kevin-shattenkirk-nhl/

Shattenkirk would check off a lot of boxes but

Part of the issue going for a guy like Shattenkirk is that the Oilers prospect cupboard is quite bare.

and Shattenkirk will probably fetch a 1st, and two other pieces. If the Blues are trading Shattenkirk, it means they are “retooling” and players/prospects that are ineligible to be picked in the expansion would have more value than in previous years.
Our prospect pool
NHL- Benning, Sleppy, Cags
AHL- JP ( he aint going anywhere) Reinhart ( dont think he has much value because he has to be exposed)
CHL- Jones ( probably most value of jr prospects) Benson ( injury worries hurt his value) Bear
Europe- Paigin ( almost 22, was last year an outlier? will he come over?)

Blues would want something like our 1st, maybe Caleb Jones and Sleppy. Maybe its our 1st and Benning. ( Woodguy would lose it)

Regardless, no way in hell we can afford to further deplete our prospect pool.

PhrankLee

Having Shattenkirk would allow Larsson to Larsson.

He has one of the best first passes in the game. Imagine someone good enough to hit Connor in full stride more times than not….let that sink in for those looking for zone entry with possession.

He is an accomplished PP wizard, RHS #1-2 D.

Haven’t looked but his I expect his primary assists to be substantial.

He is 27. He will need a raise but he will top out at under 6.

I would love to have him parachute into the top of the pairings.

RHD:
Shattenkirk
Larsson
Benning

Shiny.

Here are the articles he wrote for Players Tribune on elite D.

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/elite-defensemen-101-kevin-shattenkirk-nhl/

Bruce McCurdy

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Huh? Did I miss something?

My point was that judging a GM’s entire track record on his worst trade is like judging a team’s season on its worst game. It can’t help but be skewed to the negative, regardless of what else may have been accomplished.

Lloyd B.

oscarmike: There’s no way Jets keep Myers over Trouba.
Trouba isn’t perfect. He makes some bad mistakes.

Oscar for Myers

That could be seen as a weenie of a trade.

treevojo

The only trade that I view negatively by Chia with Edmonton is the Reinhart trade.

It caught me off guard at the time and I wasn’t all that familiar with how he had been progressing. At this time it is looking like a loss. But you never know.

The Hall trade caught me off guard as well and I thought there must have been a pick coming with Larsson. I was very familiar with what Hall brought (positive and negative). Hadn’t seen much of Larsson at all. So far I like what I see (as well as the length and cost of contracts) and I don’t view the trade as a loss at this time.

Chiarelli’s worst trade by far and it’s not even close is the Seguin trade.

He traded 5 years of Seguin for 2 years of Eriksson.

That is laughable.

I hope he had his arm being held behind his back and had no choice on that one. Indefensible.

kinger_OIL

– I will probably post this again, because its at the end of a thread. I had been talking about in Backgammon, the use of snowie, to evalute and redefine backgammon. Snowie evaluates at the end of each game:
1) how lucky/unlucky you were
2) how lucky/unlucky your opponent was
3) what % of optimal each player played
4) how easy/hard the game was to play based on moves of opponent
5) also highlighted each big change in equity in the game, as a result of great or terrible moves
6) Each player gets a “rating” based on above factors

– Staples in his most recent article refers to “major mistakes on Grade A chances”

– I don’t know how he comes up with this, but this is the kind of thing that needs to be incorporated into analysis of a player. All corsi and fenwick don’t have the same impact. A really great move that results in a deke and a goal is the same +1 corsi as a weak wrister shot from the point.

– Same for defence: when a D really makes a bad play, that clearly results in a goal (or awesome chance), that results in a huge swing in “equity”

– Football has a QB rating: interceptions affect rating a lot more than an incomplete pass. A shot that hits the post isn’t even a corsi

– We don’t have measures in hockey to differentiate between a good and bad play: they are all measured equally.

Centre of attention

stevezie:
kgo,

My empathy tells me he was leveraging the city’s emotional connection to a sports team that’s been around for decades in an effort to squeeze them for every dime he could get.

“Nice team you’ve got here. Shame if something were to…. “happen” to it.”

If / when the Oilers win a cup, we’ll be thanking the gords that Katz could spend to the cap.

Having cash is a big damned deal in the NHL. It’s really hard to push yourself over the top without it. Obviously budget teams do have success but money makes things smoother.

There would be no way for the Oilers to keep all of McDavid, Drai, Nurse, Lucic, Klef/Larsson, Sekera, Puljujarvi under the cap long term. Never mind everybody else those are just a few names. Money talks.

spoiler

stevezie:
spoiler,

I think there’s a pretty big difference between Landeskog and Hall. I’m open to being corrected.

This is not an argument in his favour. He didn’t make EIG an offer they couldn’t refuse to be nice. He saw a chance to make millions and he took it. Which is kind of fair, but does not make him sympathetic.

I’ll take a shot…

1. Part of the deal is do the Oil have something worth more than Landeskog other than Hall, if Larsson has value to them? According to NJ, no.

2. There is no such thing as absolute market value, all value is subjective

3. Diminishing marginal returns comes into play, as does shortages in critical needs. Snow to an Eskimo, water to man dying of thirst.

4. The difference between Hall and Landeskog is what got us Larsson over the Avs

5. A #1 vs. a #2 overall. Landy contract $500k less for a year longer. He’s missed 18 games in his career due to injury. Hall has missed 77. Since 2011 at EVs, Landy is 50.5 FF%. Hall is 49.2. Outscoring (GFON60-GAON60)… Landy is 0.53, Hall is 0.13.

6. Hall beats Landeskog in sheer offense, and in skating. Landeskog is better in his own end and bigger, more physical. NJ is on record saying they were looking to upgrade speed and offense which is likely why Hall was chosen over Landeskog.

kgo

stevezie,

Katz and every member of the EIG had emotional connections to the oil, they wouldn’t have sunk millions, or fractions of a billion otherwise. But..Members of EIG all expected to take a loss when they bought in…Katz could have invested his money in many more lucrative and less risky, less public places…He wasn’t trying to get every dime, damn him for investing so much in Edmonton and hopefully making a healthy return…Look at Calgary and how they’ve handled this ongoing recession….Do you realize how much the arena and surrounding development is keeping this city afloat, its not the only factor but a large one nonetheless…As far as the Seattle stunt, it’s like showing a group of smokers the black lungs of a dead person…And then offering to sell them all nicorette gum…Katz profits off the gum, but everyone quits smoking and has an improved quality of life…Then it turns out, by pure fluke, the nicorette cures the emphysima, COPD, and lung cancer already present in the long time hardcore smokers (that’s the mcdavid part of the analogy)

stevezie

kgo,

My empathy tells me he was leveraging the city’s emotional connection to a sports team that’s been around for decades in an effort to squeeze them for every dime he could get.

“Nice team you’ve got here. Shame if something were to…. “happen” to it.”