ROOKIE CROPS, THEN AND NOW

by Lowetide

Beginning today, we are launching a new series (unless you hate it) on previous Oilers rookie seasons. I think many of you may not know the impact of first-year men on this organization over the years. So, today, I will do two seasons: 1979-80, and this year, which we can update from time to time throughout the rest of the regular year. Let’s get started:

1979-80

  • Total Rookies of Interest: 14
  • 1979 Draft Notes: No. 21 overall Kevin Lowe was ranked No. 12 among 1959-born draft eligible players. The Oilers had him rated ‘anywhere from No. 10 to No. 13 overall’ on draft day.
  • Best Player as a Rookie: Wayne Gretzky. He was the best player in the league. Although not technically a rookie, because the NHL decided it one day, the young man from Brantford, Ontario was beyond ridiculous from the start. Bruce McCurdy knew he was the best player who ever lived early on, and the rest of us caught up by the first NHL spring in Edmonton.
  • Second Best Player as a Rookie: Blair MacDonald. A WHA veteran, this was his first NHL season at 25. He scored 46 goals and 94 points riding shotgun with 99. Not a fast skater, he had a great shot and fell ass over tea kettle into the grandest luck this side of Rob Brown. Like Brown, it would be a mistake to discount the natural talent of MacDonald.
  • Oldest Rookie: RD Bryon Baltimore was 27, and played his only two NHL games in this season. Another WHA vet, Baltimore hung around the minors for a little while afterward. He was well regarded by his teammates as a tough-as-nails defender and had a wicked sense of humor. Must have been smart, too.
  • Oldest Rookie Who Played a Lot: MacDonald.
  • Most Unusual Story: Mark Messier. Not Messier per se, but Punch Imlach about Mark Messier. In his book about his career with Toronto and Buffalo in the 1970s, Imlach wrote about the 1979 draft. He blamed his scouts (Imlach always blamed someone) for taking Laurie Boschman and not Brian Propp (both Brandon Wheat Kings) in the first round, and then threw his scouts under the bus again for sins not even committed in the third round. He wrote that he asked about Messier being available, and was told by scouts that 11 would not be taken in 1979. Only two picks before the Toronto turn, Edmonton called the Moose. That meant Imlach didn’t have a story, but the bugger used it in his book anyway. Lordy.
  • Another Unusual Story: When the Indianapolis Racers sold Gretzky to Edmonton, part of the money procured was used to sign Mark Messier just three days after the 99 sale.
  • Yet Another Unusual Story: Kevin Lowe was told the 1979 draft (via telephone) was to start at 10am. He expected a call from Alan Eagleson around 10:15 to tell him which team had selected him in the first round. Lowe waited, and waited, and waited. By 10:45am the phone hadn’t rung and Lowe’s mom said “My God, they’re not drafting him.” A mixup in the phone lines caused a one hour delay, but the Lowe household was not aware of it. At 11:10, Eagleson’s secretary called with the news Edmonton had chosen Lowe—21st overall.
  • Here’s One: Glen Sather was impressed by Mark Messier as he played AGAINST the Oilers in the 78-79 season (WHA). Edmonton’s Dennis Sobchuk was a pretty good player and legend has it he thought he could take the kid in the Cincinnati Stinger uniform. Messier apparently had a slight edge in punches. 12-0. Sather noticed and picked him 48th overall in the deepest draft in history.
  • Confusing but true: Many of the kids I count as rookies had some WHA experience. Dave Hunter was acquired by the WHA Oilers and spent some time in their minor league system. When he finally saw Edmonton, Hunter showed he belonged. Here is a passage from a December 1978 edition of The Hockey News: The rookie left winger, an accomplished checker despite his inexperience, moved into a position beside Gretzky and Flett and made sound contributions on almost every shift. It was clear that Hunter’s two weeks in Dallas (CHL) had restored his confidence. In that regard, his first pro goal helped too. “I was beginning to think I’d never score,” he said after beating Mike Liut with a high shot. “The longer you go, the harder it seems to get.”
  • Longest NHL careers. There were a load of lengthy careers in here. Mark Messier (1756), Wayne Gretzky (1487), Kevin Lowe (1254), Dave Hunter (746), Dave Semenko (575) and Risto Siltanen (562) represent the best one-year congregation of rookie NHL players in the game’s history.
  • Anything Else? Ron Chipperfield isn’t included, but he was a rookie that year too. He was sent to Quebec for Ron Low at the deadline, during trying circumstances detailed in the Gzowski book.
  • Hall of Fame Careers: Wayne Gretzky, Mark Messier.
  • Careers Worthy of Consideration: Kevin Lowe. I have long felt Lowe should receive strong consideration, and in the last several years there is a building verbal. We will see. I think he makes it.

2016-17

  • Total Rookies of Interest: 7
  • 2016 Draft Notes: Edmonton picked Jesse Puljujarvi at No. 4 overall. He was an ideal selection for the team, as his position (RW) was an area of need and his style was ideal. In the words of Red Line Report big horse looks and plays like a Mats Sundin clone.
  • Best Player as a Rookie: Matt Benning. He is a strong two-way defender, and a perfect fit on the right side for Edmonton. He can wheel, gives the opposition a different look and makes clever plays. He can defend, and he can hit and fight. This is an ideal college player for the city of Edmonton.
  • Second Best Player as a Rookie: Jesse Puljujarvi. He has played less than half a season in Edmonton, but the big Finn and his rambunctious style had an impact early and will again later in the year. He is not the best rookie on the team, but his career arc is very likely to be splendid.
  • Oldest Rookie: LD Dillon Simpson is just a little older than Laurent Brossoit, both are 23.
  • Oldest Rookie Who Played a Lot: Matt Benning will turn 23 in May.
  • Most Unusual Story: Nothing major yet. Forced to choose, I would pick Jesse Puljujarvi falling on draft day. Truly weird.
  • Longest NHL careers. Whoever inherits this blog will have to tell you.
  • Anything Else? Like most Oilers rookie clusters this century, it isn’t what these rookies will do as rookies, it is what their peak levels will look like.

CORSI REL FOR BLUE

Every once in a long time (not as much recently) I am asked my method of evaluation for defensemen. This often (these days) comes out of my stubborn defense of Mark Fayne. Allow me to make my point, and then we can go back to arguing about errors in the mist. A few points, all of them in 5×5 game state:

  • Generally speaking, offense from defensemen is mostly equal across dozens and dozens of men at 5×5. There are very few difference makers. There are four defenders who are scoring 1.40/60 5×5 or more this season, 41 men over 1.00/60. There are 100 more between 0.50/60 and 0.99/60. I don’t really rate most of these players as having special powers, beyond Erik Karlsson, Brent Burns, a few others, that is it. Dougie Hamilton is having a really good year in this discipline, if he can do it over a few years, then we add him to the list.
  • Quality competition has a lot to do with game state, so we have to factor it in. Qual Comp is one damned elusive thing, though, I am really warming up to the WoodMoney buckets of elite, middle and gritensity. A moving target surely, but valuable if you can find top dead center.
  • Zone starts have faded in importance, you rarely hear them mentioned. I still pay attention to them, but don’t post them here because, well, we are trying to build a consensus and this blog attempts to be that in its day to day. Important, I believe, zone starts, we can’t surround them yet. They will come into view up the road apiece.

So, with all of this as backdrop, I like CorsiRel. You have to consider the offense, the quality of competition, throw salt over your shoulder and say an Our Father, but for me CorsiRel is as tight a rhythm section as we can manage without kidnapping Bill Wyman and Charlie Watts. That said, I am willing to adapt. Ladies and gentleman, time on ice at 5×5 versus elites (via WoodMoney).

TOI V. ELITES AT 5X5, 2016-17

  • The second and third columns are via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com, first one is WoodMoney elite minutes divided by games played. I am not absolutely certain if WM was updated, so it may have one extra game in there.
  • Kris Russell plays (by my ciphering) the most elite minutes per game, and his possession numbers reflect it might be wise to back him off a little. Plenty of heavy on Russell, but as is the case so very often, it is usage that we should be shaking our fists at this morning.
  • Andrej Sekera is in the same range in terms of minutes, and shows much better in possession. This matches the eye test, where we see the puck moving up north often.
  • Adam Larsson trails the first pairing but just a hair, and his possession numbers are solid good. It is very encouraging to see him performing this well, while facing a full six minutes of gale force winds. This is good.
  • Oscar Klefbom is the first of the young draft kids to come up and play the giants, just a little shy of the big three but his possession numbers are excellent. Credit to Todd McLellan, who has pulled him back a time or two, and to the player, who is looking like a complete defenseman.
  • Matt Benning is a flat out rookie, but his TOI against elites has been increasing all year, and his possession numbers keep climbing. This is breaking news! We have a bulletin bulletin bulletin!
  • Mark Fayne, he of the four games in the NHL this season, has a good possession set but played the least amount of TOI against elites. I often get folks sending me tweets about how crazy I am, and you know that could be true. My family has no corner on clarity, and maybe I don’t understand this stuff very well. That said, I think it is possible to say (and I am) that Todd McLellan might be better off switching the top name and the bottom on my graph. Call me crazy, but I believe it.
  • That doesn’t mean that I think Todd McLellan is a bad, bad man, or that I think you should hook up your pickup to a trailer with a sign on it. No sir. Todd McLellan has access to all kinds of information I do not, and he knows what he wants from his players. I think he prefers more speed, and Kris Russell is certainly faster than Mark Fayne.
  • That doesn’t mean Mark Fayne cannot play in the NHL, it just means he is not playing for Todd McLellan.
  • Much of what I receive in regard to Fayne revolves around my sanity. People cannot believe I still hang on to the idea that Mark Fayne is an NHL defenseman. I will tell you, honestly, my stance is not an effort to piss you off, or endure the slings and arrows of your tweets in a crazy attempt to be blogger Jesus. I find myself defending minor leaguer Mark Fayne because the player has given me no reason to abandon him. I believe he is still a good player. So what would you have me do? Agree with you in an effort to keep some strange peace? Mark Fayne may never play another game in the NHL, but this blog still believes in him. George McPhee, if you are reading this, call Peter Chiarelli and tell him you will draft Mark Fayne in expansion but he has to trade you Caleb Jones. You might be surprised by his answer. And also by Mark Fayne, next season.

TOP 10 OILERS SCORING, LAST 10 GAMES

  1. Connor McDavid, 10gp, 2-11-13. He is a machine. Even in games where clean air is an issue, 97 finds a way to get on the scoresheet. Very few players in NHL history have this ability, even fewer at age 20. He has 33 shots in the last 10 games, shooting percentage is just 6.1. That will improve and goal production will increase.
  2. Leon Draisaitl, 10gp, 3-6-9. Most encouraging is his even-strength number in this 10-game set (3-5-8) and that bodes well for him. Leon is posting back to back strong seasons.
  3. Patrick Maroon, 10gp, 7-0-7. Remains an even-strength scoring demon, I am a little concerned that opponents are getting him to fight (and keeping him off the ice). In the last 10 games, he has 18 pims. Too many. Sad!
  4. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 10gp, 3-4-7. Music! Plus he is shooting more (28 shots) and is 3-2-5 at even strength. Having a second line that can score anywhere close to a goal a game is going to be massive. Big deal. Big damned deal.
  5. Jordan Eberle, 10gp, 3-3-6. All but one assist is at evens, 24 shots represents a healthy total but there is room for improvement. He looks like a completely different player in these recent games. On pace for 82gp, 18-35-53, which looks like a Jordan Eberle season (although the goals total remains a little shy).
  6. Adam Larsson, 9gp, 0-6-6. The biggest surprise in the last 10 games, this is not an offensive defender. He is also +10 in these games, showing his defensive skills to great effect.
  7. Zack Kassian, 10gp, 1-4-5. The numbers are fine, but what has really impressed me about Kassian recently is his foot speed. I think the penalty killing might be keeping him in the game, but that is a guess.
  8. Oscar Klefbom, 10gp, 2-3-5. Has 34 shots in these last 10 games, meaning he has more shots on goal than any other Oilers player. Also lugging the puck more these days, really coming into his own.
  9. Mark Letestu, 10gp, 3-2-5. The second fourth liner in the top 10 scorers, Letestu plays on both special teams and has made himself valuable in all areas.
  10. Matt Benning, 9gp, 2-2-4. The young man is involved in good things basically every shift, and his scoring totals are very good for a rookie getting his minutes. What a find!
  11. Source

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun show, beginning this morning at 10, TSN 1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, Oilers Nation. Heading into the All-Star break, what has been the best story for the Oilers? Benning? Maroon? Also, I will ask Jon for his current expansion draft protected list for the Oilers.
  • Colin Miller, FC Edmonton. The Eddies are announcing some roster returnees and it should be an interesting year for the side. Some defections, but stout goaltending and increased offense should be part of the 2017 formula.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. Is the Leafs current crop of rookies the best of this century? Plus, the joy of watching your team play against Matt Tkachuk and the Oilers at the deadline.
  • Simon Boisvert, Prospect Insider. How long should Jesse Puljujarvi be in Bakersfield, Tyler Benson injury, more on Oilers prospects.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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Jaxon

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
For JAXON on Kyle Wood. I did some digging last night:

Kyle Wood at Evens:
2G-8A
Kyle Wood on the PP:
6G-14A
Needs primo PP minutes to put up the numbers that he does. Will he get that at the NHL level?

Thanks for that. Will temper my enthusiasm, at least somewhat. Still think he’s worth some assets. And maybe this info makes him both more available and more affordable.

Professor Q

kooler:
So did that Flames kid get a suspension for the slew foot last night….apparently he’s good at it.

http://www.todaysslapshot.com/from-the-ice/matthew-tkachuk-earns-two-game-suspension-for-slew-foot/

I don’t understand how he’s escaped punishment for everything. He’s gotten punished in Junior for it yet gets away with things that no rookie really would in the NHL, let alone a veteran.

sliderule

Woodguy: One of the reasons that CF% tends to follow zone starts is because many of those starts are “earned” starts and not new shifts.

https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/15/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-i-maybe-not-as-much-as-we-thought/

That’s why they aren’t used much anymore except when they are extreme (like Larsson last year)

I have read that failed assessment that basically says that the majority of zone starts are earned.

This would pass the test if coaches couldn’t make line changes .

Of course coaches can make changes and do so to put out best defensive players in own zone and avoid putting weaker players .

In the offensive zone they put out players who can score and perhaps protect them if they are weak defensively.

I think you have to agree this is kind of page one of the coaching manual.

That study by Cane that says players by their play are responsible for their zone starts doesn’t pass logic .

Woodguy

hunter1909:
Hunter1909 Potential Playoff Winner:

Montreal Canadiens. Adding Weber has done miracles for their poise. Great goaltending(forever), excellent heads up everyone wide awake style, when compared to the sleepy Chinook team.

They’re playing Calgary right now. Check it out. Flames getting whored, and Petry’s maybe going to win that cup. He’s got a good point shot for another MacT Oilers reject.

Thank you MacT. Thank you, and Mister Kevin, for McDavid.

Poise!!

Drinkl!!

Rocknrolla

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Rockn

Thanks for the clarification….so Jesse has one year of RFA missing.

But wouldn’t this still make sense as accelerating the ELC to get the first deal done a year earlier? Agree that you are now buying different amount of UFA years.

But would you have an easier time negotiating if the prospect went 20, 50, 55 for points rather than 50, 55, 70?

So maybe that’s the strategy…burn that first year for elites.

Oddspell

Woodguy,

No worries, thanks!

hunter1909

PS: Petry has a very good shot. Johnny Hockey is useless lately. He makes Eberle seem like Rocket Richard tonight.

hunter1909

Montreal, Washington, Pittsburgh, the NYR means the East is going to be a dogfight next playoffs.

Oilers, once McDavid matures will be prohibitive faves to reach the finals for 10 years straight in the new “sad sack” Western Conference.

hunter1909

Hunter1909 Potential Playoff Winner:

Montreal Canadiens. Adding Weber has done miracles for their poise. Great goaltending(forever), excellent heads up everyone wide awake style, when compared to the sleepy Chinook team.

They’re playing Calgary right now. Check it out. Flames getting whored, and Petry’s maybe going to win that cup. He’s got a good point shot for another MacT Oilers reject.

Thank you MacT. Thank you, and Mister Kevin, for McDavid.

Woodguy

Lowetide: If you only had something resembling endurance.

I know.

I’m like a goldfish that way.

Woodguy

frjohnk:
rickithebear,

If you use EVGA in your ranking of Dmen, you are going to get a bunch of Dmen who play in front of a good/great goalie.So this tells us nothing about whether or not the Dman is actually good at defending/limiting shots.Just tells us that this Dman plays in front of a good/great goalie.I bet in your list you have a bunch of Dmen from the Capitals and Wild.

Conversely, a bad goalie will blow up many Dmens EVGA’s numbers.Again, this does not tell whether the Dman is good or bad at defending/limiting shots.It just tells me that the DMan plays in front of a shitty goalie.

Expected goals against is a better stat to measure Dmen ( and even this has limitations) than EVGA or even HDSCA. I used to use HDSCA all the time, and I still do from time to time, but its yesterdays stat.HDSCA only measures scoring chances from the slot, or a better term for this is corsi attempts from the slot.Not all HDSCA end up a shot on net. Depending on the team, its about a 70% success rate of a corsi attempt from the slot hitting the net.

Expected goals against/60 assigns a goal expectancy to shots allowed.This is a better representation of how to value a Dman as it measures what a Dman allows on his net.EVGA may have some value for valuing a Dman but its pretty low on the totem pole.

I’ve been asking Mr. The Bear not to use goals against to evaluate Dmen for 5+ years.

Gordspeed sir.

Woodguy

Ducey: I’d put CGY in the MEH. They look more like WPG and VAN to me.

VCR has 50 pts in 48 games and is -19
WPG has 48 pts in 50 games and is -12
CGY has 51 pts in 50 games and is -12

This list only uses starting goalies.

Johnson’s numbers boost them.

If I only used Elliott they be meh.

They’re not a bad team if they get good goalering and a better bottom 3 Dmen.

Brodie was hot garbage to start the year and playing with Wideman hurts

JD_Wry

Lowetide: Hope he does well in Ottawa.

Wilson was probably just stocking up on former Oilers before the 2 game series against us. I wish Zack Stortini all the best this NHL/AHL season.

Woodguy

rickithebear: No you have to parse out the HD affect and Partner Wowy!
you lazy B………ds!

The thing is you have to have taken the Comp/Team/Zs for each dman’s situation.
then established a xGF/60xGA/60; xGD/60 look at the performance relative to mean for that situation.

So I said a simple look!

might want to look at Save% of the goalie.
It can be a reflection of the ratio of Open hole to total shots.
though you might wan to look at
LD Closed shots
Hd closed shots
LD open shots
HD open shots.

Tracking training has affected the LD open shot success rates.

Chicken or Egg?

Chicken

Woodguy

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: So only one elite team in the West. That’s why I think there’s a chance to have a decent playoffs. The key is to have San Jose win the division and for the Oilers to face Anaheim. Home ice vs. the Ducks would be nice. That’s my goal, 2nd in the Pacific.

Agreed

Woodguy

Oddspell:
Woodguy,

To sort of rehash my previous question, how does this new data compare to previous years data?

I answered your original question.

This is a tweaked version.

I’d have to run every season again.

I might, but not any time soon.

Woodguy

sliderule:
Seeing as I have been one of the lonely voices on zone startsI figure I better get in my two bits worth.

Oiler D 2016-17

Corsi.Zpercent
Fayne.56.1.72.7 Only 4 gmsbutas LT favorite had to put in
Benning55.1.60.7
Gryba 53.9.52.3
Nurse.52.1.55.3
Klefbom 51.6.51.3
Sekera. 50.5.50.7
Larsson. 50.1. 47.1
Davidson. 50. 54
Russell 46.5. 47.9

You will notice how closelythe zone start percentage mirrorsthe Corsi.
The only big exception is Davey which may be injury related and one of reasons ice time is down.
I await the barrage

One of the reasons that CF% tends to follow zone starts is because many of those starts are “earned” starts and not new shifts.

https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/15/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-i-maybe-not-as-much-as-we-thought/

That’s why they aren’t used much anymore except when they are extreme (like Larsson last year)

Georges

Georges,

Actually, I think I’d start with GF% and work back from there. GF% would tell me whether I’m winning or losing when this player is on the ice. I’d then use the other stats to try to figure out why.

Georges

frjohnk:
rickithebear,

If you use EVGA in your ranking of Dmen, you are going to get a bunch of Dmen who play in front of a good/great goalie.So this tells us nothing about whether or not the Dman is actually good at defending/limiting shots.Just tells us that this Dman plays in front of a good/great goalie.I bet in your list you have a bunch of Dmen from the Capitals and Wild.

Conversely, a bad goalie will blow up many Dmens EVGA’s numbers.Again, this does not tell whether the Dman is good or bad at defending/limiting shots.It just tells me that the DMan plays in front of a shitty goalie.

Expected goals against is a better stat to measure Dmen ( and even this has limitations) than EVGA or even HDSCA. I used to use HDSCA all the time, and I still do from time to time, but its yesterdays stat.HDSCA only measures scoring chances from the slot, or a better term for this is corsi attempts from the slot.Not all HDSCA end up a shot on net. Depending on the team, its about a 70% success rate of a corsi attempt from the slot hitting the net.

Expected goals against/60 assigns a goal expectancy to shots allowed.This is a better representation of how to value a Dman as it measures what a Dman allows on his net.EVGA may have some value for valuing a Dman but its pretty low on the totem pole.

Valuing defensemen is tough. There are some defensemen who cycle in through a season, underperform (give up too much) and don’t get a lot of minutes. Then you have the regulars who get first, second, or third pairing minutes.

xGA60 has its limitations. I think Emmanuel Perry publishes the xGA numbers calculated by his model rather than calculating xGA based on the mix of shots allowed and the average save percentage across the league for different types of shots. The latter way is more transparent and more useful in my opinion. Also, I think xGA60 may be more about the team than the individual because defense is a team concept first.

When you look at xGA60 across different total TOI categories for defensemen, you see some but not a lot of variation. So, as groups, first pairing, second pairing, and even third pairing defensemen aren’t that different in the shot mix they’re allowing. Or shot volume either because they’re not that different on CA60 or SA60.

And defensemen in different TOI categories don’t seem to affect shooting or save percentages the way that forwards do.

The one meaningful difference (and it’s not huge) is on the stats at the other end of the ice. CF60, FF60, SF60. The explanation I can come up with is that coaches value defensemen who do a better job of keeping the play in the other end and generating more opportunities against the opposition when they’re on the ice. In every thing else, the average first pairing, second pairing, and third pairing defensemen look like the average defensemen.

Of course, this line of thinking doesn’t speak to individual performances. Some guys might have stellar or horrible numbers that stand out. I’m just making an observation on groups of defensemen. When you look at how coaches allocate TOI to forwards, you see a rational and consistent pattern. Forwards with more ice time have better stats; forwards with better stats get more ice time. That pattern doesn’t hold for defensemen and where it does, the edges are slight.

So, when LT uses CF% to evaluate defensemen (I don’t think he needs to use CF%Rel), I think he’s pretty close. CF% includes CF60 and CF60 seems to separate defensemen.

rickithebear

classict:
frjohnk,

I think he might know (agree with some of) this, but is calling us lazy bastards for not doing it ourselves

It is amazing what trending you can recognize by going thru the process in seasonal intervals as you follow the team!

You just notice sh… uh er stuff……..
yeah!

classict

frjohnk,

I think he might know (agree with some of) this, but is calling us lazy bastards for not doing it ourselves 😉

hunter1909

Bag of Pucks: There’s no ‘best’ in music. All subjective based on personal taste.

If I was any smarter I’d have said this.

The only problem is, “B” grade music students(many who rate themselves as “A” and higher) have learned how to twist this kind of statement around in a way that gives them an obtuse “advantage”. Seen this all the time, back in the day. Probably this is found in many other areas of life.

frjohnk

rickithebear,

If you use EVGA in your ranking of Dmen, you are going to get a bunch of Dmen who play in front of a good/great goalie. So this tells us nothing about whether or not the Dman is actually good at defending/limiting shots. Just tells us that this Dman plays in front of a good/great goalie. I bet in your list you have a bunch of Dmen from the Capitals and Wild.

Conversely, a bad goalie will blow up many Dmens EVGA’s numbers. Again, this does not tell whether the Dman is good or bad at defending/limiting shots. It just tells me that the DMan plays in front of a shitty goalie.

Expected goals against is a better stat to measure Dmen ( and even this has limitations) than EVGA or even HDSCA. I used to use HDSCA all the time, and I still do from time to time, but its yesterdays stat. HDSCA only measures scoring chances from the slot, or a better term for this is corsi attempts from the slot. Not all HDSCA end up a shot on net. Depending on the team, its about a 70% success rate of a corsi attempt from the slot hitting the net.

Expected goals against/60 assigns a goal expectancy to shots allowed. This is a better representation of how to value a Dman as it measures what a Dman allows on his net. EVGA may have some value for valuing a Dman but its pretty low on the totem pole.

Doug McLachlan

Hi LT,

Sorry to see that a favourite of yours has been traded and not to the Oilers – Tommy Wingles is off to Ottawa (with the Sharks apparently retaining 30% of the salary).

http://www.tsn.ca/senators-acquire-wingels-from-sharks-1.657131

kooler

So did that Flames kid get a suspension for the slew foot last night….apparently he’s good at it.

http://www.todaysslapshot.com/from-the-ice/matthew-tkachuk-earns-two-game-suspension-for-slew-foot/

JD_Wry

Bag of Pucks,

I’ll guess that you’re not a fan of Mr Marcaille then?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glKyBYgVqIA

Bag of Pucks

Ca$h-McMoney!: With all due respect to Bon, most of the pros (rightly) pick Freddy Mercury for that distinction.

There’s no ‘best’ in music. All subjective based on personal taste.

Loved Mercury as a singer. Watching him live wearing nothing but a pair of bicycle shorts. Not so much.

hunter1909

Looking forward to two of my fave teams that wear red play later today. Calgary so remind me of 2010. Their fans are crying the same lament.

hunter1909

JDï™: Which is contrary to your original comment that it was 100% Malcolm.

This is why I rarely try to talk music online with people.

Music and knowing it was never a competition for me.

I say the MUSIC was 100% Malcolm, viz them ever standing a cat’s chance in hell of making it to the top like they did.

Obviously Bon has his share, Angus no slouch himself has his, and the rest of the band, like Fayne, I have zero interest in knowing about.

Apologies for my being as clear as mud.

hunter1909

JDï™: Scott wasn’t nearly as accomplished a singer as Mercury or Plant, and not nearly as engaging as Jagger, but he had a soulful voice and everything came from the heart with him.

He died before he was destroyed.

Total Rock and Roll death, which in classical R+R theory beats down 70 year old lead singers, performing in Coca-Cola Microsoft Nestle environments every day of the week.

JD_Wry

Sorry Pouz.

JD_Wry

Ca$h-McMoney!: pick Freddy Mercury for that distinction.

A case can be made for a lot of other singers, like Jagger and the guy who stood in front of John Bonham.

Scott wasn’t nearly as accomplished a singer as Mercury or Plant, and not nearly as engaging as Jagger, but he had a soulful voice and everything came from the heart with him. And he could roll a pair of socks like nobody else.

Ducey

Woodguy:
WOODGUY’S ULTIMATE NONE MORE BLACK BOX POWER RANKINGS v2.21

ALL CATEGORIES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER SONO ONE ASKS WHY TEAM “X” IS 3 SPOTS ABOVE TEAM “Y”

BOS
CBJ
PIT – ELITE
SJS
WSH

ANA
CAR
CGY
EDM
LAK
MIN – GOOD
MTL
NSH
NYI
TOR

BUF
CHI
DAL
FLA
NYR
OTT
PHI– MEH-OK
STL
TBY
VAN
WPG

ARI
DET – NO SIR, NOT GOOD.
NJD

COL – WRETCHED

I’d put CGY in the MEH. They look more like WPG and VAN to me.

VCR has 50 pts in 48 games and is -19
WPG has 48 pts in 50 games and is -12
CGY has 51 pts in 50 games and is -12

JD_Wry

hunter1909: which is why they call it a “band”.

Which is contrary to your original comment that it was 100% Malcolm.

I suggested that Malcolm was closer to the middle…

Ca$h-McMoney!

hunter1909:

Bon was the best – probably best R+R front man of all time imo.

With all due respect to Bon, most of the pros (rightly) pick Freddy Mercury for that distinction.

hunter1909

JDï™: As critical as he was to the band, he needed Angus and Bon just as much as they needed him.

…which is why they call it a “band”.

The bass player and drummer won the “saved from obscurity” lottery, lol.

hunter1909

JDï™: Well he didn’t write Angus’ solo parts, and really, nobody would pay to see a guy standing in the back, tapping his foot, and playing rhythm guitar. As critical as he was to the band, he needed Angus and Bon just as much as they needed him.

Phil Rudd probably could have been replaced with Pete Best.

Angus was pretty cool at the beginning – he’d climb on top of balconies while playing which is insane which makes him special. Feel free to help me think clearly anytime.

Bon was the best – probably best R+R front man of all time imo.

frjohnk

JDï™: Very few sellers, and any buyer who wants to be in ahead of the deadline frenzy will have to pay a premium for that too.

If that’s their ask, the final price will undoubtedly be lower. Should make for an interesting deadline, either way.

Right now, other than Arizona and Colorado, everyone believes they have a shot to make the playoffs, so only those two teams are sellers.

Within the next 6 weeks, there will be teams falling out.

In the West, Chicago, Minnesota, Anaheim, San Jose, and Edmonton ( YUP!!!) are almost locks
Nashville is close to that group of 5.
If St Louis fixes their goaltending that is 7 of the 8 playoff spots taken.

1 of LA, Calgary, Winnipeg, Vancouver and Dallas fight for the last playoff spot. Im expecting Winnipeg, Vancouver and Dallas to fall away and end up being sellers.

As for the East, nobody is out yet.

rickithebear

frjohnk: yup.

yup.

Maybe Ricki you could use xGA/60 instead of EVGA.

No you have to parse out the HD affect and Partner Wowy!
you lazy B………ds!

The thing is you have to have taken the Comp/Team/Zs for each dman’s situation.
then established a xGF/60 xGA/60; xGD/60 look at the performance relative to mean for that situation.

So I said a simple look!

might want to look at Save% of the goalie.
It can be a reflection of the ratio of Open hole to total shots.
though you might wan to look at
LD Closed shots
Hd closed shots
LD open shots
HD open shots.

Tracking training has affected the LD open shot success rates.

Chicken or Egg?

Ducey

classict: Nope it had nothing to do with whether Fayne was/is good or not. It was simply answering the question you asked “Also, how many coaches have not played Fayne now?” Which (to me) sounded like you were implying lots of coaches haven’t trusted him.

Fayne was a fancy stats darling when the Oilers signed him.

Personally, I think he would be playing for the Oilers if he was more physical.

JD_Wry

Rocknrolla: The young lead singer was Jagger’s son

Didn’t know that.

I really liked all the behind the scenes stuff they uncovered as well. By about episode 3, they had shown payola, off-the-books printing runs, mob involvement, and the theft of royalties from black writers.

It was like the Sopranos of the record biz, and I thought the episodes centered around famous performers back then were done very well too. I really appreciated the music behind the show.

I really hope another media company decides to pick it up.

JD_Wry

frjohnk: Arizona asking for the moon for their UFA’s.

Very few sellers, and any buyer who wants to be in ahead of the deadline frenzy will have to pay a premium for that too.

If that’s their ask, the final price will undoubtedly be lower. Should make for an interesting deadline, either way.

rickithebear

Chamucks:
classict,

in Fayne’s last year with NJ his most common partner was Greene so yeah that is correct but my problem with that has always been the WOWYS for Fayne. Was being zoomed very much Greene.

one of the things you look for in trending is repeatability.

Facing 1st comp
Klefbom-Fayne better than 2/3 rd games elite HD d play.
fayne maintained his shot rates from NJ.

facing 1st comp
Sekera-Fayne better than 2/3rd above average games.
Faynes Shot rates went up propotional to the reduction of Sekera’s career 1st comp SA rates.

Chamucks
frjohnk

30 thoughts are out.
Arizona asking for the moon for their UFA’s.

“-Word is Arizona’s initial ask from Montreal for Martin Hanzal was Michael McCarron and two draft picks — one a first-rounder, the other conditional.”

frjohnk

classict: Though it really really favors the guys playing in front of good goalies

yup.

classict: I think something like xGA/60 might be a more fair representation.

yup.

Maybe Ricki you could use xGA/60 instead of EVGA.

Rocknrolla

JDï™: used

Agreed….liked that show. The young lead singer was Jagger’s son as well in case you didn’t know. It was a great window into late 60s NYC music scene from a drug addict record company execs perspective.

classict

rickithebear,

Good list Ricki, thanks. Though it really really favors the guys playing in front of good goalies. I think something like xGA/60 might be a more fair representation.