OILERS ACQUIRE HENRIK SAMUELSSON

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers made a trade today, adding a name that we discussed at length back in 2012 leading up to the draft. In what is clearly an unusual deal, the Oilers traded 2012 second-round selection Mitchell Moroz for the man they hoped would fall to them—power forward Henrik Samuelsson. I ranked him No. 23 on draft day:

  • R Henrik Samuelsson NHLE 6-14-20. PF and a player whose draft stock rose through the spring as he helped power the Oil Kings to the Memorial Cup. Size/skill combination makes him a terrific prospect, and he’s right in the wheelhouse for a team like Edmonton. He might be a perfect fit. Source

Samuelsson has had an unusual pro career, derailed by injuries (concussion, ankle) after his junior career. If we compare the two men at the AHL level, Samuelsson is clearly the better offensive prospect.

  • Henrik Samuelsson 2014-15 (20) 68gp, 18-22-40 (NHLE: 23)
  • Henrik Samuelsson 2015-16 (21) 43gp, 3-9-12 (NHLE: 11)
  • Henrik Samuelsson 2016-17 (22) 20gp, 2-1-3 (NHLE: 6)

Year one looked good, the last Oilers F prospect to have an NHLE of 23 at age 20 was Teemu Hartikainen, and the Finn’s 20-year old season is a really good comparable for Samuelsson at the same age.

  • Mitchell Moroz 2014-15 (20) 66gp, 5-4-9 (NHLE: 5)
  • Mitchell Moroz 2015-16 (21) 40gp, 5-5-10 (NHLE: 10)
  • Mitchell Moroz 2016-17 (22) 17gp, 1-2-3 (NHLE: 7)

As was the case with the Oil Kings, Samuelsson and Moroz were never going to apply for the same job in pro hockey. Samuelsson has (had) more offensive ability, while Moroz has (had) utility as a checking winger although we have not seen evidence he brought it with him to pro hockey.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

This trade is a Billy Preston. Now, it may be a different story two years from now, but at this point giving each of these young men a fresh start is likely the strongest reason to make the deal. I think the Oilers got the better player, but have no real idea about his health and that could be the major story in his resume. His issues this year have not be disclosed (that I have seen), so this is a mystery train as it leaves the station. Samuelsson last played January 28 and AHL Stats suggests he is playing a little over 11 minutes a night. He has played center and wing in his career. I believe he is only the second man to play for the Oilers after being born in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (Bob Beers). Both men involved in the deal are RFAs after the season, one suspects their performances will impact the possibility of a new deal with each new club.

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StixMalone

Bob Green must’ve been involved in this one….

meanashell11

Very dirty player, I hope he can get his act together in Bakersfield.

Rondo

StixMalone,

They have a crush on that Oil king team. Don’t know if there are any NHL players on that team.

N64

Won’t bother posting any of the hysteria when the Oil took Moroz early, but it is funny how found money and cosmic disaster top of the 2nd washed out to equal trade value.

https://lowetide.ca/2012/06/22/draft-2012-day-one-all-will-be-revealed/comment-page-1/#comment-177819

WOODGUY says:
June 22, 2012 at 6:24 am
Article in Boston Globe this morning has BOS looking hard at Samuelsson at 24.
From the article:
“He had a real strong playoff,’’ Chiarelli said. “I really like his strength. I like his shot. I like the way he protects the puck. He’s a prototypical power forward.’’

LMHF#1 says:
June 22, 2012 at 2:16 pm
In the next 10 days, anything less than Yakupov, Samuelsson, a trade from strength for a good defenseman and signing Justin Schultz should be considered a failure. This isn’t rocket surgery, it is there for the taking.

GODOT10 says:
June 22, 2012 at 1:30 pm
I think the Oilers are trying to decide between Murray and Reinhart, taking Murray at #1, or trading down to #3 or #4 to take Reinhart. I think the Oilers might be safisfied with an extra 2nd, which they can package with their own second to back into the first to get Samuelsson.

GCW_ROCKS says:
June 22, 2012 at 9:01 am
Woodguy,
Well that ius damn depressing. I was hoping Bobbie Mac was right and Samuelsson would fall to the second round so the Oilers could pick him.

N64

Rondo:
StixMalone,

They have a crush on that Oil king team. Don’t know if there are any NHL players on that team.

Oil King Parity Conservation on that trade. Next up? Musil for Lazar.

Bruce McCurdy

Haha, my friend skyped me while I was writing up this swap for for CoH, and I actually sang to him that opening line of the Billy Preston song. Great minds. 🙂

Will just repost my in-person scouting report (8games in Tucson) here

Henrik Samuelsson, Tucson Roadrunners scouting report (from home games I have witnessed).

He was my most disappointing player on the Roadrunners to watch. Now before you decide that I hate the Oilers and I piss on everything, just consider that I mentioned that here on LT’s comments section before we traded for him.

Why? Because I expected more, given his storied junior career.
In watching him, at the AHL level, he was always a step behind the play where the puck was concerned. Always chasing. He is not fast enough, and by that I mean both quickness in reaction as well as speed to be on a scoring line at the AHL level. He is a 3rd liner type.
He has going for him decent size and great work ethic. But he does not have the skill, even at the AHL level to play a feature role on a scoring line. A guy like Christian Fischer on the same team, for example, can skate much better and has more skill, while bringing the size and grit.

Is Samuelsson a bad player? No. And I have not watched Moroz enough this year to say conclusively whether he is better than Moroz, but if I had to guess based on earlier viewings of Moroz, yes, an upgrade.

But this is an AHL level move. If Samuelsson is to make it as an NHL-er he needs to find another gear that I have not yet seen. His shot is not good enough, speed not good enough, head for the game not fast enough right now to contribute in a scoring role at the NHL level. If he makes it, it would be as a 4th line RW.

And no, he does not play C for Tucson.

This is shuffling the deck chairs among older prospects. I think the Coyotes were disappointed in Samuelsson’s development. He has not been very good and likely they wanted to hit the reset button.
I do not have a magic 8-ball so I don’t know if Samuelsson will ever find the next level, but at the fringes an upgrade, so nothing to complain about with regards to the price paid to get him.

I just want everyone to temper their expectations if the last they saw Henrik was as an Oil King. The bloom is off the rose with him–don’t be plugging him into your NHL lineup above Kassian, for example, in your 2017-2018 roster predictions.

That’s my $0.02

and for a penny more–it’s likely that the various injuries he has sustained just mean he may not ever find that next gear in skating/quickness, which would be a shame.

geowal

N64: Oil King Parity Conservation on that trade. Next up? Musil for Lazar.

Reinhardt (++?) for Pysyk

N64

Rondo:
StixMalone,

They have a crush on that Oil king team. Don’t know if there are any NHL players on that team.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/p/pysykma01.html

Victoria Oil

meanashell11,

Meanashell – email me at flugelsunited2@yahoo.ca if you want to watch a game sometime (somewhere between Larchmont + Greenwich).

fifthcartel

Seems like a low-risk low-reward move.

meanashell11

Westchester Oil,

Just emailed you! Sorry, LT sent me your detes but I have been completely swamped!

edit! Screwed up your email, just resent!

Klima's_Bucket

I hope this works out like the Rieder for Kessy deal.
With the Oilers being on the better end this time.

Woodguy v2.0

I was really hoping Samuelsson would fall to the Oilers at the draft.

Interesting bookends to what might be the end of both players’ AHL careers.

Woodguy v2.0

geowal: Reinhardt (++?) for Pysyk

That’s actually reasonable.

FLA is short on LHD.

Alpine

Samuelsson won’t likely turn out like Rieder but Slepyshev has a good chance to do that.

Alpine

Woodguy v2.0: That’s actually reasonable.

FLA is short on LHD.

If I were them I’d ask for Davidson. And they would because they got the statz over there.

Woodguy v2.0

Alpine: If I were them I’d ask for Davidson. And they would because they got the statz over there.

Griff’s fancies were decent last year with Oesterle playing 2nd pair.

I’d ask for Davidson as well.

Since none of the 3 players mentioned will probably be protected I doubt it would get done before the expansion draft.

meanashell11

I honestly have a problem with Samuelsson. I guess there is a chance a tiger can change its stripes like Kassian has but this kid was a dirty player.

N64

Woodguy v2.0:
I was really hoping Samuelsson would fall to the Oilers at the draft.

Interesting bookends to what might be the end of both players’ AHL careers.

Bonus if it somehow ends with promotion.

Professor Q

Rondo:
StixMalone,

They have a crush on that Oil king team. Don’t know if there are any NHL players on that team.

Brossoit, Jarry, Pysyk?

Lowetide:
One area this might impact is RW next year. Pakarinen, Pitlick, Beck, et cetera, may have to deal with this young man for playing time. He does have PF pedigree (6.03, 210), so it may impact one of these men.

I don’t think Samuelsson has any realistic hope of eclipsing Pitlick in the pecking order, even as injured as Pitlick is, he has speed and a shot that Samuelsson does not have.

Diablo

Samuelsson is exhibit A why we shouldn’t get too worked up over late 1st round picks – pretty much everyone here thought this kid was a can’t miss prospect. The amount of vitriol that was subsequently tossed at the Oilers for selecting Moroz since that day could fill volumes. And what did it actually amount to? Today these kids find themselves traded for one another – both are barely clinging to pro careers at the AHL level. If a pick in the 20’s can be used to get an actual NHL player, you do that trade every time. Because after the first 10 picks the draft is a complete crapshoot.

Lloyd B.

Diablo:
If a pick in the 20’s can be used to get an actual NHL player, you do that trade every time.

Because the draft is a complete crapshoot.

FTFY

Diablo,

I disagree a little with your statement, which seems sweeping. It is not like the Oilers chose to draft Moroz over Samuelsson.

You can still criticize the reasoning behind choosing Moroz so early in the draft without that being disproved by Samuelsson’s results.

i.e. Samuelsson struggling is a separate issue from drafting Moroz, in my opinion.

Also, Samuelsson showed well his first pro year. Injuries have taken their toll.

I don’t think this means the draft after pick 10 is a complete crapshoot.

Timeisnow

N64:
Won’t bother posting any of the hysteria when the Oil took Moroz early, but it is funny how found money and cosmic disaster top of the 2nd washed out to equal trade value.

https://lowetide.ca/2012/06/22/draft-2012-day-one-all-will-be-revealed/comment-page-1/#comment-177819

WOODGUY says:
June 22, 2012 at 6:24 am
Article in Boston Globe this morning has BOS looking hard at Samuelsson at 24.
From the article:
“He had a real strong playoff,’’ Chiarelli said. “I really like his strength. I like his shot. I like the way he protects the puck. He’s a prototypical power forward.’’

LMHF#1 says:
June 22, 2012 at 2:16 pm
In the next 10 days, anything less than Yakupov, Samuelsson, a trade from strength for a good defenseman and signing Justin Schultz should be considered a failure. This isn’t rocket surgery, it is there for the taking.

GODOT10 says:
June 22, 2012 at 1:30 pm
I think the Oilers are trying to decide between Murray and Reinhart, taking Murray at #1, or trading down to #3 or #4 to take Reinhart. I think the Oilers might be safisfied with an extra 2nd, which they can package with their own second to back into the first to get Samuelsson.

GCW_ROCKS says:
June 22, 2012 at 9:01 am
Woodguy,
Well that ius damn depressing. I was hoping Bobbie Mac was right and Samuelsson would fall to the second round so the Oilers could pick him.

I like this one

CAPTAIN OBVIOUS says:
June 22, 2012 at 2:23 pm
The good news is that at least we aren’t the Jets. No matter how bad we screw this up it is still better than drafting Mark Scheifele ahead of Couturier.

Goes to show sometimes we think we know, but we really have no idea.

Interesting reading some of those old comments

Just to be fair here’s a good trade suggestion from same guy
CAPTAIN OBVIOUS says:
June 22, 2012 at 3:26 pm

Ducey:
There is no way MTL would trade Subban and #3 for #1.Is the difference between Nail and Alex Galchenyukworth Subban?No way.

I agree completely. The question is what else the Oilers would have to give in addition to the #1. If it’s Paajarvi I do it. If it is Paajarvi and Musil, I do it. If it is almost anything I do it.

Lowetide,

Ah. I was not aware of said UFA trigger.
My apologies. Will educate myself.

Lloyd B.

if we are to believe the rumored UFA trigger.

Please explain this.

Centre of attention

Lloyd B.,

He has X years of pro experience with less than Y number of NHL games played, so it triggers an early UFA window.

I don’t know what the magic number of games played/years of pro are, but Pitlick hasn’t met the criteria.

Don’t quote me on this, its a rough explanation 😛

Centre of attention

Sounds like Oilers are recognizing their speed/skill issue in the bottom 6.

Yesterday and today Bob talked about “changing the dynamic” of their forward group to add more speed. Added that he sees Khaira as a regular NHLer when back from injury due to skating / puck protection. Slepyshev has been “making believers out of people” in the organization according to Bob too. All good arrows.

I’m glad they are realizing the times are changing and speed is all the rage, but damn that Lucic contract is looming large.

Man. This team.

stevezie

Timeisnow,

I was begging them to trade Yak straight up for Subban! Begging them!

(made sense at the time too. He was about to holdout.)

Confused

Centre of attention,

Yeah and yesterday Bob was banging on how great we are.

Think people give Bob too much credit for having the scoop.

He flip flops like the weathet

Chachi

Lowetide: Well, I have been unable to confirm, so cannot send you anywhere. However, there is a clause that allows him to opt out of RFA because he didn’t play a certain number of games in the NHL. I have been trying to track down.

Here you go:

10.1(c) Group 6 Free Agents.
(i) Means any Player who is age 25 or older who has completed three (3) or more professional seasons, whose SPC has expired and: (i) in the case of a Player other than a goaltender, has played less than 80 NHL Games, or (ii) in the case of a goaltender, has played less than 28 NHL Games (for the purpose of this definition, a goaltender must have played a minimum of thirty (30) minutes in an NHL Game to register a game played). For the purposes of the foregoing, the term professional season shall: (A) for a Player aged 18 or 19, mean any season in which such Player plays in eleven (11) or more Professional Games (including NHL Regular Season and Playoff Games, minor league regular season and playoff games, and games played in any European professional league, while under an SPC), and (B) for a Player aged 20 or older, mean any season in which such Player plays in one or more Professional Games (including NHL Regular Season and Playoff Games, minor league regular season and playoff games, and games played in any European professional league, while under an SPC).
(ii) Any Group 6 Player shall, at the expiration of his SPC, become an Unrestricted Free Agent and shall be completely free to negotiate and sign an SPC with any Club, and any Club shall be completely free to negotiate and sign an SPC with such Player, without penalty or restriction, or being subject to any Right of First Refusal, Draft Choice Compensation or any other compensation or equalization obligation of any kind.

Woodguy v2.0

Lowetide: Well, I have been unable to confirm, so cannot send you anywhere. However, there is a clause that allows him to opt out of RFA because he didn’t play a certain number of games in the NHL. I have been trying to track down.

He’ll be a Group 6 Free Agent.

CBA 10.1 (c)(i) and (ii)

(c) Group 6 Free Agents.

(i) Means any Player who is age 25 or older who has completed three (3) or
more professional seasons, whose SPC has expired and: (i) in the case of a
Player other than a goaltender, has played less than 80 NHL Games, or (ii)
in the case of a goaltender, has played less than 28 NHL Games (for the
purpose of this definition, a goaltender must have played a minimum of
thirty (30) minutes in an NHL Game to register a game played). For the
purposes of the foregoing, the term professional season shall: (A) for a
Player aged 18 or 19, mean any season in which such Player plays in
eleven (11) or more Professional Games (including NHL Regular Season
and Playoff Games, minor league regular season and playoff games, and
games played in any European professional league, while under an SPC),
and (B) for a Player aged 20 or older, mean any season in which such
Player plays in one or more Professional Games (including NHL Regular
Season and Playoff Games, minor league regular season and playoff
games, and games played in any European professional league, while
under an SPC).

(ii) Any Group 6 Player shall, at the expiration of his SPC, become an
Unrestricted Free Agent and shall be completely free to negotiate and sign
an SPC with any Club, and any Club shall be completely free to negotiate
and sign an SPC with such Player, without penalty or restriction, or being
subject to any Right of First Refusal, Draft Choice Compensation or any
other compensation or equalization obligation of any kind.

Pitlick turned 25 in November, is in his 5th pro season (5 as described by the CBA, he’s actually played pro hockey for 6 years) and has a total of 58 NHL games played.

He’d need to play 80 and then the Oilers would retain his RFA rights.

This clause is in the CBA to keep teams from “burying” players in their system and wasting their careers without giving them a chance to make it with another NHL team.

Woodguy v2.0

Chachi,

Great minds and all………..

Chachi

At the end of June Pitlick’s SPC will expire, he will be 25 or older with 3 or more seasons of pro hockey experience and he will have played less than 80 games.

Edit- what Woodguy said.

Chachi

Woodguy v2.0:
Chachi,

Great minds and all………..

Speak for yourself! 🙂

Confused

Just read the coh article on Darnell, is this supposed to be insightful? Informative?

Just is pure filler……Feel embarrassed to have read it.

Centre of attention

Duane Sutter again at Avs game.

Duane was also at the Ducks – Avs game the other night too.

Hmmmmmmmm.

(Sutter is high up in Oilers scouting)

Centre of attention

Lowetide,

Yup.

I wonder about Tyutin or something really Oiler-y like that.

Pick the player on the Avs you think is least likely to be traded here for what ever reason. THAT’s the guy they’re scouting.

Woodguy v2.0

George wrote something interesting last thread and I wanted to respond to it here:

Georges,

In recent years, HDSF% and SF% were pretty highly correlated. This year and the past year, not so much. The relationship between shots and winning has weakened. But the relationship between winning and winning the shot battle in the high danger area has strengthened.

Coaches for PIT, MIN, and CBJ have talked about placing less emphasis on shots in general and more emphasis on scoring chances or high danger shots. They’re willing to exchange 2 MD shots (or a bushel full of LD shots) for 1 HD shot because the math makes sense.

I think the game’s changing. The leading teams are moving away from Corsi and shot volume as performance measures and looking for edges in percentages and shot quality. They’re trying to sustain these edges with systems and personnel rather than accepting that PDO measures are outside their control.

Meanwhile, BOS and LA are still doing the old, hard core Corsi thing and find themselves just at the edge of the playoff hunt. If they finish inside the playoffs and go on a run, then I would definitely take that as vindication of the view that when it comes to shots, it’s better to focus on volume rather than quality. I’m very interested to see how this shakes out by the end of the season.

I don’t think coaches are coaching any different.

“Takes pucks to the net, play in the hard areas in front of the net” have been directions by coaches since the game began.

I think what has changed is the roster make up.

The teams you mention like PIT, MIN, CBJ no longer employ “energy players” and their “checkers” have offensive ability. (NYR and others too)

For years and years most NHL teams ran:

2 scoring lines
1 checking line to minimize opponent scoring, but not score much themselves
1 “energy line” had to put a fisher somewhere so play him with other stick optional players for 5 min/night

Thankfully, this has changed.

If we look at MIN from last night we see:

Coyle-Staal-Niederreiter
Granland-Koivu-Zucker – this is their “checking” line – lots of fire power
Parise – Huala – Pominville

and a 4th line with Schroeder (former 1st rounder) – Stewart (former top 6) – Graovac (prospect)

No stick optional players, no “energy” players.

Hockey players who can put up points on all 4 lines.

If you look at PIT and CBJ its similar. Gagner is 4C on CBJ.

Oilers aren’t there yet.

23-55-44 is pretty meh in terms of offensive ability. 44 is the best there and 55 can do ok with decent wingers, but 23 is a not a player in today’s NHL.

So I don’t think the coaches are coaching differently at all.

I think the rosters they have changed and they have more players who can execute their game plan.

Teams like LAK and BOS have very good coaches and game plans, but lack the finishers to score and still have too many players who made it to the NHL despite their offence and not because of it. BOS is also quite snakebite with historically very good players shooting well below their career average (like Bergeron shooting 6.5% when his career is 10% etc)

Also,

The reason MIN kicked EDM’s ass is the same reason PIT kicked SJS’s ass in the Cup final last year.

EDM relies on getting pucks deep, forechecking and winning board battles in the ozone to create offence.

MIN’s D (and PIT’s in the Cup final) simply don’t allow the forecheck to happen.

The get back to pucks quickly, and then most importantly, make quick decisions and move the puck smartly while retaining possession.

Its the quick and correct decision making that makes all the difference in the world.

Its the same reason why Benning’s results are the best on the Oilers.

He could slide into MIN or PIT’s Dcorps and not miss a beat.

LMHF#1

Well, I’m happy. Hope this is what he needs. He was the player of that group.

Woodguy v2.0

Also George:

I wouldn’t trust year over year correlations using Naturalstattrick’s HDSC data.

They changed the definition and the data is wonky.

Woodguy v2.0

Chachi: Speak for yourself!

I did 🙂

Lloyd B.

Chachi:
At the end of June Pitlick’s SPC will expire, he will be 25 or older with 3 or more seasons of pro hockey experience and he will have played less than 80 games.

Edit- what Woodguy said.

I can read ( my understander of legaleeze is not as good as it should be) but is it 80 games played or 80 games on the roster? Huge difference in Pitlicks case.