G53 2016-17: OILERS AT PREDATORS

When we review this season in April (or May, or June!) one of the themes I will bring to you is just how much this team accomplished on the road. The home record looks fine now, but that came later. The road is where this team found itself, and the road is where they will spend February. Giddyup.

CRAZY, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-5, goal differential +3
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in January 2017: 9-4-1, goal differential +8
  • Oilers in February 2016: 3-8-2, goal differential -18
  • Oilers in February 2017: 0-0-0, goal differential nil
  • Oilers after 52, 2015-16: 21-26-5, goal differential -18
  • Oilers after 52, 2016-17: 28-16-8, goal differential +18

January is in the books, and it was a helluva month for the Edmonton Oilers. A year previous, the club gathered only 10 points in 11 games, and were outscored by five goals. This past month? Edmonton grabbed 19 points in 14 games, and put themselves in a brilliant position to grab a playoff spot for the first time since the spring of 2006. G53 was a 5-1 loss to Montreal. Have a boo at February last year—this is what Edmonton must avoid over the next 26 days.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM FEBRUARY

  • On the road to: Nashville, Carolina, Montreal (Expected: 1-1-1)
  • At home to: Chicago, Arizona, Philadelphia (Expected: 1-1-1)
  • On the road to: Chicago, Tampa Bay, Florida, Washington, Nashville, St. Louis (2-3-1)
  • Overall expected result: 4-5-3, 11 points in 12 games

This is a big damned month. I have Edmonton grabbing 4 wins and three Bettmans in 12 games, and that is going to be difficult without at least a win from this week.

EARLY TRADES?

  • Elliotte Friedman: One GM on Tuesday night: “Someone is going to set the trade market. Not every GM feels they can wait. There are guys who like to go early, and one of them will.” So many teams are so close that someone is going to decide they won’t lose a playoff spot because they waited.  Source

We are now inside 30 days for the deadline, and the Oilers are going to be active on some level. I think we see both buying and selling from Edmonton again this time. As you may recall, the Oilers dealt Justin Schultz and Teddy Purcell on the Saturday, and then grabbed Patrick Maroon on deadline day. Colorado may break early, will the Oilers be part of it? More in a minute.

Detroit looks like they may end up being a seller, I think the Oilers should stay away from most of their veterans—especially Mike Green, who owns a dear contract. Perhaps Darren Helm or Thomas Vanek come available, Detroit may decide to reboot over the summer.

FILIP BERGLUND’S PROGRESS

  • 2015-16—5gp, 0-0-0 (3SOG) (10:00 a night)
  • 2016-17—35gp, 0-7-7 (25SOG) (9:03 a night)

Filip Berglund has been having a little success in the last while (two assists in three games) and we always look for progress beginning in January. Berglund has survived most of the season in the SHL, and he is 1.33 points-per-60 based on the above numbers (via SHL.se). Good arrows, keeping him in Sweden for another year is probably wise if there is a sense he will emerge as a full time regular.

THE NEW MAROON

Centre of Attention was all over this last night in the comments section, he mentioned Joe Colborne and that would be an interesting addition. He is a big (6.05, 221) and he has NHL experience. Remind you of anyone?

  • Joe Colborne (27)—37gp, 3-1-4 and 270 career NHL games
  • Patrick Maroon (27)—56gp, 4-9-13 and 204 career NHL games at the deadline last year.

Maybe the Oilers were looking at Matt Duchene or Tyson Barrie, but Joe Colborne—who makes $2.5 million this and next season—could be on the shopping list. He would fit the Patrick Maroon buy low template from last deadline.

CURRENT 50-MAN LIST

The acquisition of Samuelsson may give Jesse Puljujarvi the AHL center he needs, and at the same time allows the new hire to salvage something from a trying season. I remain convinced Peter Chiarelli has more to do before we can give the balance check mark, but a good summer that includes strong drafting and one more lash at the defense and we may be able to unveil the balance photo.

EBERLE ON THE TRADE DEADLINE LIST

Frank Seravalli of TSN will join me this morning to talk about trade deadline targets currently on the TSN deadline list. It is here. Jordan Eberle is on the list, so perhaps there is something there. We haven’t discussed Eberle as a trade option, mostly because there are no clear replacements. If I were forced to cobble together a sensible scenario, it might be:

  • The Oilers plan to run their top line with two centers (McDavid—Leon) until the end of time.
  • The Oilers want to make room for Jesse Puljujarvi before March.
  • The Oilers want someone closer to Nathan Horton in style to play on the Lucic—Nuge line.

Those are my guesses, but it is not clear to me the Oilers have enough in-house to replace Eberle and address another position. Perhaps a RW for RW deal that gets Peter Chiarelli a player he is more comfortable deploying? We wait.

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER, BLUE

  • Todd McLellan is running his veterans (Kris Russell, Adam Larsson, Andrej Sekera) in the hell zone, and that is allowing the younger set (Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, Matt Benning) a chance to flourish against (slightly) lesser competition.
  • Two things to watch: Brandon Davidson should move up this depth chart as he continues to get back into the swing of things at the deadline. Also, we might want to prepare for an alignment that includes 8D after the deadline.
  • Matt Benning is getting a nice push in terms of zone starts, he is the new Justin Schultz. His defensive acumen makes him a more complete blue, and is one reason we are observing one of the finest rookie seasons by an Oilers blue this century. He is terrific!

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER, FORWARDS

  • The top three lines are all in the right spot, Edmonton starts far less in its own zone in the modern era (since 2016!).
  • Jesse Puljujarvi’s offense wasn’t grand but I did like him along the wall and without the puck. It will be interesting to see how he is deployed upon return.
  • Connor McDavid really helps.
  • Drake Caggiula is getting the soft parade, a key to this final stretch may be his line starting to cash at even strength. It may also come to pass that the Oilers bring in a veteran center.
  • Anton Slepyshev is in an good spot with an interesting hue. If the Oilers have one here, that would help immensely and give that crazy trade a victory. Slepyshev has moved ahead of Nail Yakupov in scoring.
  • Anton Lander is in the gulag. Same as it ever was.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10, TSN1260, big brains, wood, leather and old lace. Scheduled to appear:

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. Trade deadline, February uphill both ways, expansion list.
  • Alex Thomas, The Oilers Rig. Alex has excellent insight about Henrik Samuelsson during his minor league days on the right coast, and we will discuss the Super Bowl.
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Trade deadline, Golden Knights at the deadline, Blues really blue.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you in 90 minutes!

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315 Responses to "G53 2016-17: OILERS AT PREDATORS"

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  1. Edmonton_fan says:

    Very relevant for most trading solutions heading into the playoffs. “It didn’t get a ton of play during All-Star Weekend, but there’s bad news for your favourite NHL team. The cap will be flat for next year.”

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-thoughts-lightnings-yzerman-not-biting-low-offers-bishop/

  2. Lowetide says:

    Edmonton_fan:
    Very relevant for most trading solutions heading into the playoffs. “It didn’t get a ton of play during All-Star Weekend, but there’s bad news for your favourite NHL team. The cap will be flat for next year.”

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-thoughts-lightnings-yzerman-not-biting-low-offers-bishop/

    It will be interesting, but for me this could be a good thing. Kris Russell may get better offers elsewhere, and LV is going to drive prices up anyway. Oilers may have to play a lesser role in free agency this summer, and that is good overall.

  3. JJS says:

    A scoring RW would sure unlock this lineup. Allows us to move Drais back to center and, consequently, everyone else down a notch.

    Similar to our previous recurring discussions re our defense batting too high in the lineup.

    Our 3rd line is a hot mess – this would help.

    One critical adjustment can really reset the group.

    As much as I’d love to see the big RH shot on the power play, it seems less important to the aforementioned. And perhaps the RW can provide that coverage as well.

    It’s going to be a fun spring!

  4. DBO says:

    Edmonton_fan,

    IF we were ever going to capiltalize on teams with cap issues, this is the year. Another Maroon espque where trading team eats some salary. With McDavids entry level deal one more year, I am convinced our first window for the cup is next year. If not this year.

    LT, while I understand Green’s contract is large next year, if you get Detroit to eat $1.5 mill of it, it fits our salary cap next year, and it probably forces them to not re-sign Russell, forcing them to run a balanced LH/RH back end. Who would you rather have at $4.5, Russell or Green? Maybe you do Davidson for Green and possibly deal Russell for picks that allows us to get a vet C.

  5. marchmentsknee says:

    The Oilers want someone closer to Nathan Horton in style to play on the Lucic—Nuge line.

    LT, I think you nailed it. If the Oilers are going to get the value out of Lucic’s contract Chia will need to play him with compatible players. Eberle and Lucic are oil and water.

  6. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    I’m happy with the trade yesterday more for the process than the likely result. In my mind we traded a player that had no chance at helping us for a player with an outside chance at emerging as a useful tool. The most likely scenario is of course that neither player makes it, but a free lottery ticket beats no lottery ticket every damn time.

    Another thing to be happy with in terms of his recent moves. The most impressive in my mind remains his work this summer dipping into the college pool.

    I look at it this way: A good team drafts somewhere in the 20s.

    If, in some imaginary earlier year, if we had been drafting in the 20s, and using 1 pick per round, we emerged a few years later with a decent 3rd line wing/center with some upside, a top 4dman, and a very good but still developing goalie prospect, that would in my mind represent a pretty successful draft.

    Peter Chiarelli basically added an entire draft class for free last summer. That’s good work.

  7. Ducey says:

    I was kinda hoping they signed Colborne in the summer.

    But I saw him bad a week or so ago. He was the zombie that his 3-1-4 pts and -18 in 38 games says he is.

    Maybe a change of scenery does him good. But with that contract, COL better eat some money and be happy with a D prospect like Christopher.

  8. verite says:

    watch the meltdown start tonight
    Chiarellis sits and sits, as the team is rotting

    why no comment on the pasting the Flames handed out to the Wild last night
    that was the real Wild team, weak goalie, no offense of no real talent, and trying to play Suter for 60 minutes
    but the Oilers were humiliated by them
    an utter disgrace

    remember this when the Flames blow by the Oilers very soon

    Chiarelli must act very quickly to fundamentally change this team
    Flush RNH and Eberle
    Find the nerve to trade Klefbom and Nurse

    And get a team that will not embarass the fan base like this past Tuesday

    But expect nothing

    Abject incompetence

  9. verite says:

    moderation is censorship

  10. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I think the Oilers should stay away from most of their veterans—especially Mike Green, who owns a dear contract. Perhaps Darren Helm or Thomas Vanek come available, Detroit may decide to reboot over the summer.

    Vanek is top 5 in the NHL in 5v5 primary points/60

    Vanek is UFA this summer

    Vanek is on a $2.6MM contract

    Vanek is right wing

    Why would you stay away from him?

    He’s a perfect fit.

  11. Primetime says:

    On Eberle:

    I am still banging on the “Tavares needs a buddy to resign” drum….especially with the clusterF&*k happening with their arena now.

    Eberle for Strome/Pullock

    Not sure if the Isle’s resurgence under Dougie makes this more or less plausible at trade deadline vs. offseason.

    Also re: Mike Green
    What if they took Fayne plus a draft pick? Would that make it more palatable? Same length of contract

  12. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Samuelsson been playing RW all year down here, just fyi.

  13. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    “Paging mr. thebear. paging mr. thebear. Need a defenseman checked in the Green grocery aisle. Sounds like some people forgetting defenders need to defend again.”

  14. Confused says:

    I think cags and looch will always be a disaster. Cags is a rush-type player. Looch is a cycle-type player.

    Hence, we need a change, can I suggest JJ play 3C with looch. For at least a trial until the deadline, once he is obviously healthy again.

    Looch — JJ — Slepy

    should be able to cycle, grind in the corners, get pucks back to the slot or up for point shots with everyone screening the goalie.

    Feed them lots of o-zone starts, taking the pressure off JJ and off Looch who is a complete disaster in his own end this season.

    Cags can play 4LW allowing Hendo to sit.

    THe oilers are very short of assets and Bakersfield has nothing, lets look at internal solutions before wildly spending assets on rentals, etc.

    Pete needs to keep his powder dry and solve, this summer, the real long-term problems the team has 2RHD must be the top priority. And who knows what that will cost.

  15. Confused says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Cost!

    JP will be ready for the play-offs.

  16. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Primetime:
    On Eberle:

    I am still banging on the “Tavares needs a buddy to resign” drum….especially with the clusterF&*k happening with their arena now.

    Eberle for Strome/Pullock

    Eberle is an established top 6RW who, while not on a bargain contract, is paid market rate for what he brings to the table. Some like him more than others, but no one can suggest he isn’t a top 6RW nor that he will continue to be for the remainder of his contract.

    Strome is a draft bust. He’s been a frequent healthy scratch whose best season is 50points 2 years ago., with no other season eclipsing 30.

    Yakupov for Strome would have been in the ballpark.

    Think the Hall for Larsson trade was an overpayment? It’s not even in the same galaxy as Eberle for Strome. Not even close.

  17. Primetime says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Samuelsson been playing RW all year down here, just fyi.

    Obviously your right, but like I mentioned yesterday, Flemming clearly stated on Gregor’s show that Samuelsson’s value for his team was that he was a center. Apparently they intend to play him there going forward.

  18. Protagonist says:

    Now I’m not saying that Lowetide has never had a Balance photo to actually show us, all I’m saying is has anyone seen the photo and Lowtide in the same place.

  19. Cooldude says:

    Confused,

    Preach!

  20. SwedishPoster says:

    I don’t hold much hope for Samuelsson to help Puljujärvi. Kid couldn’t skate at all as a junior player and has had injury issues since turning pro. I remember seeing him in Sweden in his draft year and couldn’t believe why he was considered a first rounder, bad skater with ok skill, lots of grit and strong for his age, to me he looked like a guy you grab in the 4th round and hope he finds his legs. He showed well in juniors because of his early physical developement imo.
    I obviously hope he finds his feet, if he can he might be a solid bottom sixer but I’m not holding my breath

  21. Clay says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    I think the Oilers should stay away from most of their veterans—especially Mike Green, who owns a dear contract. Perhaps Darren Helm or Thomas Vanek come available, Detroit may decide to reboot over the summer.

    Vanek is top 5 in the NHL in 5v5 primary points/60

    Vanek is UFA this summer

    Vanek is on a $2.6MM contract

    Vanek is right wing

    Why would you stay away from him?

    He’s a perfect fit.

    I took LT’s comment as saying they should stay away from most of Detroit’s veterans except Vanek and Helm, but that may be just me.

    Ducey:
    I was kinda hoping they signed Colborne in the summer.

    But I saw him bad a week or so ago. He was the zombie that his 3-1-4 pts and -18 in 38 games says he is.

    Maybe a change of scenery does him good. But with that contract, COL better eat some money and be happy with a D prospect like Christopher.

    Agree on Colborne. He’s not the type of player his physical size would imply, and he’d quickly become the scapegoat of Oilers fans. “He’s so big – he should be murdering people with viscous bodychecks and he’s just like Penner but without the points! Arg my internets and dither dither dither!”

  22. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Todd McLellan is running his veterans (Kris Russell, Adam Larsson, Andrej Sekera) in the hell zone, and that is allowing the younger set (Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, Matt Benning) a chance to flourish against (slightly) lesser competition.

    ~47% OZS isn’t hell or even close to hell.

    Larsson’s 22% OZS last year was hell.

    ~47% OZS – ~52% is basically the same so all top 4 Dmen are close and Davidson/Nurse/Gryba aren’t far off either.

    The only outlier is Benning.

    What we know about ZS is that a lot of them are earned.

    Benning having the best CF% on the team and having the most OZS goes hand in hand both ways.

    Good CF% drives OZS

    Good OZS drives some good CF%

    There’s is really “nothing to see here” in terms of OZS% for the Oiler Dmen

  23. Side says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    I think the Oilers should stay away from most of their veterans—especially Mike Green, who owns a dear contract. Perhaps Darren Helm or Thomas Vanek come available, Detroit may decide to reboot over the summer.

    Vanek is top 5 in the NHL in 5v5 primary points/60

    Vanek is UFA this summer

    Vanek is on a $2.6MM contract

    Vanek is right wing

    Why would you stay away from him?

    He’s a perfect fit.

    I read LT’s comment as “stay away from most of Detroit’s forwards but Vanek and Helm”.

  24. JustWatt says:

    Going to the game tonight with some buddies from med school who have hardly seen a hockey game in their life. Hopefully the Oil give me something to cheer about in front of them instead of…. something else. 🙂

    I’m all on board for Vanek if the price is right. It opens up so many possibilities and creates depth in case of injury among the forwards. Vanek and a real backup G and this team might get outside the first round!

  25. fifthcartel says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I thought Vanek played or preferred LW, but I might be wrong.

  26. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Primetime: Obviously your right, but like I mentioned yesterday, Flemming clearly stated on Gregor’s show that Samuelsson’s value for his team was that he was a center.Apparently they intend to play him there going forward.

    That’s strange. I wonder what they’ve seen in his play that makes them think he would be a good centre? Bakersfield and Tucson haven’t played each other in a while. Of course, they could have been sending scouts.

    At the very least Samuelsson has been playing down on a checking line so if, as LT suggests, they are thinking of him as JP’s centre, well talk about a huge leap up for Samuelsson. Samuelsson has work ethic and is okay defensively but he would seem to me to not be fast enough to keep up with JP on a scoring line. I also think his offensive hockey IQ is not good enough.

    But I don’t mind the trade at all. I think it makes sense. I just would say to be cautious about expectations. The man has struggled. Mightily. Shame about the concussions and leg injuries.

  27. Primetime says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:

    Think the Hall for Larsson trade was an overpayment?It’s not even in the same galaxy as Eberle for Strome.Not even close.

    Sure, if I had proposed Eberle straight up for Strome.

    Eberle for Stome + Young RHD with a PP bomb + Cap space

    Bit of a different equation. I’m not an Eberle basher, but Chia may see things differently in his master plan. Eberle and Hall do not hold even close to the same trade value, not now, not ever. You think the return for Hall was low? Wait till you see what Eberle would return.

    Obviously, the answer would then be to hang on to him…but I just don’t think he fits the Bruinization plan…

  28. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Hi Swedish,

    I am living in Tucson this winter and have seen Samuelsson play here (AHL Roadrunners) 8 times. I wrote up a long scouting report at the top of yesterday’s trade-related post. But I pretty much agree with you. In fact, it has gotten worse (his quickness). I see him as an AHL middle-sixer. I don’t have any hope for him for the NHL at this stage. Maybe as a 4th line/extra forward.

  29. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    P.S. Eberle was the one player that we have heard Boston kept asking Edmonton for. I think that Chia probably values Eberle’s scoring more than you think. That said, if he is not scoring enough, that’s another matter.

  30. Lowetide says:

    Sigh. Dear Woodguy: The Hell Zone is upper left, I was referencing that zone. Also, I mentioned Vanek as someone Edmonton might want to look at, along with Helm.

  31. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    WC Standing as of this morning using games. 8th place set to 0. Ties broken with pts% (games in hand)

    MIN 18
    SJS 12
    CHI 10
    ANA 10
    EDM 9
    NSH 3
    LAK 2
    STL 0
    ————————
    VAN -1
    CGY -1
    DAL -2
    WPG -4
    ARI -12
    COL -23

    I think the battle for the last spot will be between STL, CGY and DAL

    I see VAN fading over time and LAK moving up out of harm’s way along with NSH.

    Here’s something I posted on twitter: (changed to the correct pts% from winning % that I posted on twitter)

    Oiler Home Points % 0.544 (21st in NHL)
    Oiler Road Points % 0.635 (5th in NHL)

    Maybe a couple of long trips in Feb isn’t a bad thing?

    Lots of variance in that number, but only 2 NHL teams have a road points % over 15% better on the road than home.

    NYR and EDM.

    Rags play on crappy MSG ice in the busiest building in North America.

    Oilers play on new ice in a building where they can’t seem to get the temp or air flow right.

    There’s gotta be something to it.

    Also,

    Seriously tough test tonight. I do not expect a win.

    GOILERS!

    *clap,clap*

  32. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide:
    Sigh. Dear Woodguy: The Hell Zone is upper left, I was referencing that zone. Also, I mentioned Vanek as someone Edmonton might want to look at, along with Helm.

    Sigh. Dear LT. What puts them in the upper left is ZS. the QoC difference isn’t much different.

    The graph is misleading and no one is in hell zone.

  33. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Primetime: Sure, if I had proposed Eberle straight up for Strome.

    Eberle for Stome + Young RHD with a PP bomb + Cap space

    Bit of a different equation.I’m not an Eberle basher, but Chia may see things differently in his master plan.Eberle and Hall do not hold even close to the same trade value, not now, not ever.You think the return for Hall was low?Wait till you see what Eberle would return.

    Obviously, the answer would then be tohang on to him…but I just don’t think he fits the Bruinization plan…

    Fair enough.

    I read Stome/Pullock as meaning Strome OR Pullock. You meant Strome & Pullock. Got it.

  34. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Now I have a theory about the Rangers this year. And I am going to check it out.

  35. kinger_OIL says:

    – I would bet a lot that Chia would love dearly to trade Ebs.

    – He’s a top-60 forward in terms of generating points, and hasn’t exactly stepped up this year

    – What saves him from being traded now is he’s probably not going to get much in return…

    – He has to hope they get into the playoffs, and Ebs be like the “clutch guy” he has been in a few international instances.

    – If they get into playoffs and he is exposed as being ineffective as I suspect he will be in playoff hockey, he’s gone by next season.

  36. Pescador says:

    JustWatt:
    Going to the game tonight with some buddies from med school who have hardly seen a hockey game in their life. Hopefully the Oil give me something to cheer about in front of them instead of…. something else. ?

    I’m all on board for Vanek if the price is right. It opens up so many possibilities and creates depth in case of injury among the forwards. Vanek and a real backup G and this team might get outside the first round!

    Show them the GMoney spread sheets algorithms,
    That should please their large brain cavities.

  37. DBO says:

    Woodguy.

    Any chance of a Woodmoney look at Green from Detroit? Just curious how he stacks up. I just feel that acquisition cost and one more year of him fits the Oilers next 2 playoff runs. As long as he brings something to the table as a 2RD PP option.

    And Vanek in same deal kinda fits 2 of our biggest needs, and lets us run a balanced lineup (with Drai back at C), greatly increasing our likelihood of this mythical BALANCE picture LT has teased for the last 7 years.

    Maroon-McDavid-Vanek
    Lucic-Draisatl-Puljujarvi
    Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle
    Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian
    Caggulia-Lander

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Green
    Nurse-Benning
    Davidson

  38. PhrankLee says:

    The first 4 or 5 games this month will determine what PC will do.

    I don’t think he is any kind of pressure situation given how far the team has come this season.

    Mass culling in the summer.

  39. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Antti Raanta: on the road, 7 games played, 6-1.
    Henrik Lundqvist: on the road, 17 games played, 11-6.

    Okay, so not as extreme as I thought. Both goalies have are 5 games over .500 on the road, although in a small sample size, Raanta has a much higher points percentage.

    Raanta has kind of been the better goalie this year, it seems. But he has 14 starts split between road and home. I was thinking that the Rangers may have to start Lundqvist more at home to keep the masses happy (Henrik is a big draw for the Rangers) but my theory holds no water.

    That said, Raanta has been the better road goalie.

  40. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Sigh.Dear LT. What puts them in the upper left is ZS. the QoC difference isn’t much different.

    The graph is misleading and no one is in hell zone.

    This is hilarious,
    Aren’t you 2 sitting across from each other in the studio right now?

  41. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Antti Raanta: on the road, 7 games played, 6-1.
    Henrik Lundqvist: on the road, 17 games played, 11-6.

    Okay, so not as extreme as I thought. Both goalies have are 5 games over .500 on the road, although in a small sample size, Raanta has a much higher points percentage.

    Raanta has kind of been the better goalie this year, it seems. But he has 14 starts split between road and home. I was thinking that the Rangers may have to start Lundqvist more at home to keep the masses happy (Henrik is a big draw for the Rangers) but my theory holds no water.

    That said, Raanta has been the better road goalie.

    Interesting.

    Oilers lost 3 on the road with Gus in net….

  42. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pescador: This is hilarious,
    Aren’t you 2 sitting across from each other in the studio right now?

    Will be in 5 min.

    LT *may* punch me.

  43. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Bartkowski, Kelly and M. Subban for Eberle? Remember that one?
    http://www.insidehockey.com/the-bruins-should-trade-for-oilers-eberle/

    Maybe Chia now wants to be on the other end of an Eberle trade but there is no evidence to say he “can’t wait to trade him” either.

    Pure speculation on our part.

  44. Pescador says:

    Confused:
    I think cags and looch will always be a disaster. Cags is a rush-type player. Looch is a cycle-type player.

    Hence, we need a change, can I suggest JJ play 3C with looch. For at least a trial until the deadline, once he is obviously healthy again.

    Looch — JJ — Slepy

    should be able to cycle, grind in the corners, get pucks back to the slot or up for point shots with everyone screening the goalie.

    Feed them lots of o-zone starts, taking the pressure off JJ and off Looch who is a complete disaster in his own end this season.

    Cags can play 4LW allowing Hendo to sit.

    THe oilers are very short of assets and Bakersfield has nothing, lets look at internal solutions before wildly spending assets on rentals, etc.

    Pete needs to keep his powder dry and solve, this summer, the real long-term problems the team has 2RHD must be the top priority. And who knows what that will cost.

    Good post, I am right there with you Lucic – Khaira – Sleppy.
    Great skill set match that should crush some souls on the cycle.
    No need to spend big dollars for a 3C in free agency. Good points all, I’m sold.
    However for the rest of this year and Gord willing the playoffs. I would want an everyday NHLer in the spot, 1 rookie on that line is enough. How many games has JJ played? 10-15?

  45. Chachi says:

    kinger_OIL:
    – I would bet a lot that Chia would love dearly to trade Ebs.

    – He’s a top-60 forward in terms of generating points, and hasn’t exactly stepped up this year

    – What saves him from being traded now is he’s probably not going to get much in return…

    – He has to hope they get into the playoffs, and Ebs be like the “clutch guy” he has been in a few international instances.

    – If they get into playoffs and he is exposed as being ineffective as I suspect he will be in playoff hockey, he’s gone by next season.

    I agree with you. Also, don’t you think this was a great game day post by LT?

  46. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I’d love Green. I’d probably deal the 1st if it meant a full year of him next season, maybe a hair of retention

  47. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Will be in 5 min.

    LT *may* punch me.

    McCurdy’s going to hold your arms back while LT works the solar-plexus.
    Haha

  48. theres oil in virginia says:

    Todd McLellan is running his veterans (Kris Russell, Adam Larsson, Andrej Sekera) in the hell zone, and that is allowing the younger set (Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, Matt Benning) a chance to flourish against (slightly) lesser competition.

    I’m not sure how you can put Larsson in the “vet” set and Klefbom in the “younger” set. They were drafted 15 places apart and Larsson’s only a few months older. It’s like trying one kid as an adult while the other gets juvee court. You’re worse than the man.

    (Hey everybody, lets attack LT while he’s doing his raaadio show. Oooh. He thinks he’s better than us!)

    🙂

  49. sliderule says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    What we know about zone starts is that coaches employ players in zones where they are not a liability or in the case of offensive players you give them a bump with offensive starts.
    That is why you see rookies like Benning Nurse and JP being protected and players like Sekera and Letestu getting lots of own zone starts.
    Coaches control zone starts way more than you give them credit for

  50. JustWatt says:

    Pescador: Show them the GMoney spread sheets algorithms,
    That should please their large brain cavities.

    Ha ha, nah, doctors hate math. It’s why we aren’t scientists.

  51. JustWatt says:

    Pescador: McCurdy’s going to hold your arms back while LT works the solar-plexus.
    Haha

    FALSE. McCurdy will be late to the fight after LT calls him in as backup

  52. kinger_OIL says:

    Chachi,

    – I forgot to mention that: that’s one of my “signatures”! Great post LT! Thanks for noticing chachi!

  53. OilSafety says:

    Trade Deadline proposition time….

    Davidson (1.425*2) for Shattenkirk
    Russle for 2017 3rd round pick
    2017 3rd round pick + conditional 2018 3rd round pick for Vanek
    Pouliot for picks – maybe 4th and 7th? Maybe retain .5m?

    If Vanek resigns, leave Eberle unprotected for Vegas?

    2016/17
    Maroon McDavid Drai
    Lucic Nuge Eberle
    Slepy Cags Vanek
    Hendo Letestu Kassian

    Klef Larsson
    Sekera Shattenkirk
    Gryba/Nurse Benning
    Reinhart/Gryba

    2017/18
    Maroon McDavid Drai
    Lucic Nuge Vanek
    Slepy Cags Kassian/Pulijarvi
    Hendo/Letestu Letestu/Jujar Kassian/Pakarannin

    Klef Larsson
    Sekera Shattenkirk
    Nurse Benning
    Gryba/Reinhart

    Still weak at 3rd line center in my opinion.

    Probably a lot more action than were going to see, but does any of that sound reasonable?

    and no, I dont hate Eberle. Maybe we leave Pouliot available for expansion and trade Eberle – just dont see the value for another team at 6m…

    I welcome any reasonable feedback, Im knew at this hope stuff

  54. Georges says:

    Woodguy,

    Didn’t get a chance to reply to your post last night.

    There’s a disconnect this year between Corsi and winning. The correlation is quite low.

    There’s a disconnect this year between SF% and HDSF%. The correlation has dropped from previous years. Winning the shot battle is less a proxy for winning the high danger battle than it was before.

    xGF60, xGA60, and xPDO are measures of systems play. They allow us to assign a score to the volume and quality of shots that a team has manged to get and give up. The more these measures correlate to their results counterparts (GF60, GA60, PDO), the more we can say the results are driven by systems play rather than individual skill or luck.

    The correlation between xPDO and PDO is higher this year than prior years. (0.27 in 2013-14 and 0.61 this year)

    The correlation between PDO and winning is higher this year than prior years. All situations PDO explains 76% of the variance in P% so far this year. That’s high.

    I’m looking at these numbers and trying to interpret them. One interpretation is that it’s noise, the patterns won’t hold up, and everything will settle back down to the usual.

    The interpretation I’m going with is that coaches are looking for systems based edges (not just personnel based edges) in PDO and finding them. This is what the MIN, PIT, and CBJ coaches have said they’re doing or trying to do with their systems in interviews. I haven’t included Babcock in this list but I should.

    Here’s what you said about the Minnesota defense:

    MIN’s D (and PIT’s in the Cup final) simply don’t allow the forecheck to happen.

    The get back to pucks quickly, and then most importantly, make quick decisions and move the puck smartly while retaining possession.

    Its the quick and correct decision making that makes all the difference in the world.

    If MIN’s mobile, quick thinking defense is not allowing the forecheck, they shouldn’t be spending a lot of time in their own zone, right? You credited PIT and CBJ as also having the right personnel.

    Here are their 5v5 CA60 rankings:

    CBJ 19
    PIT 23
    MIN 24

    Here are their 5v5 CF% rankings:

    PIT 13
    CBJ 17
    MIN 25

    Here’s their 5v5 PDO rankings:

    MIN 2 (103.6)
    CBJ 3 (101.9)
    PIT 8 (101.1)

    Are these good teams or lucky teams?

    If they’re good teams, they’re different from BOS and LAK, numbers 1 and 2 on CF%, 3 and 2 on CA60, and 29 and 22 on PDO.

    If they’re lucky, we shouldn’t go gaga over their personnel or look to emulate their style of playing, because they’ll fall back at some point to where the shot metrics say they belong.

  55. Chachi says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Chachi,

    – I forgot to mention that: that’s one of my “signatures”!Great post LT!Thanks for noticing chachi!

    It is great that you do that and I think it is safe to say you speak for all of us (at least I hope!) when you do.

  56. Chachi says:

    JustWatt: Ha ha, nah, doctors hate math. It’s why we aren’t scientists.

    If doctors are not scientists why is my doctor always trying to “experiment” on me? Maybe I should stop going to a doctor who went to Hollywood Upstairs Medical College…

  57. Ducey says:

    SwedishPoster:
    I don’t hold much hope for Samuelsson to help Puljujärvi. Kid couldn’t skate at all as a junior player and has had injury issues since turning pro. I remember seeing him in Sweden in his draft year and couldn’t believe why he was considered a first rounder, bad skater with ok skill, lots of grit and strong for his age, to me he looked like a guy you grab in the 4th round and hope he finds his legs. He showed well in juniors because of his early physical developement imo.
    I obviously hope he finds his feet, if he can he might be a solid bottom sixer but I’m not holding my breath

    Didn’t see him in Sweden and have not seen him in the AHL. But he was bona fide in the WHL. 80 then 95 points in 65 games each of his last two years shows that. I watched him a lot and he was plenty skilled and seemed fast enough too. He did get lots of gravy PP minutes but he put up those points with Moroz stapled to his left side too.

    His first year in the AHL was also pretty good statistically.

    It sounds like the injuries have really slowed him down.

    As for skating, I think people need to keep it in perspective. Its important, but not the end of the story. There are lots of guys who “couldn’t skate” that can play plenty good (I remember people used to say Gretzky didn’t skate well enough). There is no reason Samuelson couldn’t be a Patrick Maroon for example

    Last year lots here were scared the Oilers were going to take “poor skating” Matthew Tkachuk.

    Yeah, that would have been terrible.

  58. Primetime says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Bartkowski, Kelly and M. Subban for Eberle? Remember that one?
    http://www.insidehockey.com/the-bruins-should-trade-for-oilers-eberle/

    Maybe Chia now wants to be on the other end of an Eberle trade but there is no evidence to say he “can’t wait to trade him” either.

    Pure speculation on our part.

    Agree this is all speculation…that’s what makes it so fun!

    That being said, I read that article as saying the Oilers want to get those players from the Bruins since they have 3 shiny new #1 overalls (wow, time goes by so fast!). They mention that the Bruins MAY want to upgrade the offence and the Oilers would be a good place to start. If Chia really valued/wanted Ebs, and the ask included those 3 guys, don’t you think he would have jumped at it?

    I do remember the stories at the Hall draft about the Oil trying to get the #2 pick (Seguin). Apparently they kept trying to peddle Hemsky but the Bruins said the package would START with Eberle…apparently KLowe et al laughed at them. Not sure if that was Chia drooling over Ebs vs. what the heck else would you want off that roster!

    Anyways, time will tell if Chia is attached to Ebs or not. If so, will be REAL interesting as to what the market is…I bet he brings in much less than Landeskog, despite a much better offensive history.

  59. kinger_OIL says:

    Georges,

    – This is interesting fijndings: makes sense that as teams buy into the prevailing wisdom, the advantages of a particular philosophy erode, adn new strategies are innovated

    – That’s why I’m such a big fan of Belichek: from week to week the only constant is that Brady will generally make intelligent choices: they can go from run to pass, to TE focused, to playing tight D, to airing it out.

    – Most teams in professional sport, you pretty much know what you are up against The Pats are able to change strategies based on the match-up better than any team I can recall

  60. Jethro Tull says:

    kinger_OIL: – Most teams in professional sport, you pretty much know what you are up against The Pats are able to change strategies based on the other team’s playbook better than any team I can recall

    FIFY

  61. Jethro Tull says:

    Jason Chimera in his 1000th game tonight.

  62. Scungilli says:

    If Chiarelli makes the team any slower than it is it will kill me. Maroon isn’t the best example of slow skaters doing well when he’s McDavid’s winger. Even the coach has stated in a presser that Patty is getting zoomed. Nearly all strong players have good boots. To me it makes a bigger difference in the playoffs than reg season.

    Another thing is while Maroon is ‘shooting the lights out’, he is 6th in Oiler scoring behind 3 slumping players and has very unbalanced scoring at 18G 8A. Love the guy but there be signs.

    I really hope everybody shows up and the team plays a solid team game this time, win or lose.

    Go Oilers!

  63. DocFan says:

    This is a seriously excellent post. Thanks for sharing.

    Georges:
    Woodguy,

    Didn’t get a chance to reply to your post last night.

    There’s a disconnect this year between Corsi and winning. The correlation is quite low.

    There’s a disconnect this year between SF% and HDSF%. The correlation has dropped from previous years. Winning the shot battle is less a proxy for winning the high danger battle than it was before.

    xGF60, xGA60, and xPDO are measures of systems play. They allow us to assign a score to the volume and quality of shots that a team has manged to get and give up. The more these measures correlate to their results counterparts (GF60, GA60, PDO), the more we can say the results are driven by systems play rather than individual skill or luck.

    The correlation between xPDO and PDO is higher this year than prior years. (0.27 in 2013-14 and 0.61 this year)

    The correlation between PDO and winning is higher this year than prior years. All situations PDO explains 76% of the variance in P% so far this year. That’s high.

    I’m looking at these numbers and trying to interpret them. One interpretation is that it’s noise, the patterns won’t hold up, and everything will settle back down to the usual.

    The interpretation I’m going with is that coaches are looking for systems based edges (not just personnel based edges) in PDO and finding them. This is what the MIN, PIT, and CBJ coaches have said they’re doing or trying to do with their systems in interviews. I haven’t included Babcock in this list but I should.

    Here’s what you said about the Minnesota defense:

    If MIN’s mobile, quick thinking defense is not allowing the forecheck, they shouldn’t be spending a lot of time in their own zone, right? You credited PIT and CBJ as also having the right personnel.

    Here are their 5v5 CA60 rankings:

    CBJ 19
    PIT 23
    MIN 24

    Here are their 5v5 CF% rankings:

    PIT 13
    CBJ 17
    MIN 25

    Here’s their 5v5 PDO rankings:

    MIN 2 (103.6)
    CBJ 3 (101.9)
    PIT 8 (101.1)

    Are these good teams or lucky teams?

    If they’re good teams, they’re different from BOS and LAK, numbers 1 and 2 on CF%, 3 and 2 on CA60, and 29 and 22 on PDO.

    If they’re lucky, we shouldn’t go gaga over their personnel or look to emulate their style of playing, because they’ll fall back at some point to where the shot metrics say they belong.

  64. Eastern Oil says:

    Chachi: If doctors are not scientists why is my doctor always trying to “experiment” on me? Maybe I should stop going to a doctor who went to Hollywood Upstairs Medical College…

    Are you Dr Nick’s good friend Mr. McGreg that has a leg for an arm and an arm for a leg?

  65. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Ducey,

    All good points. That said, Samuelsson is not like Maroon at all in play style. Just to weigh in.

    Maroon: plus shot, plus cycle game, plus passer (for a big man), average skater
    Samuelsson: average skater, average shot, no cycle game, average passer, good hustle, good physical presence, always arriving late to the play (at the AHL level), tends to chase the puck, not anticipate where it is going (since you mention Gretzky–“don’t go where the puck has been, go where it is going.”)

    It’s a fine trade, don’t get me wrong. But people who have not seen Samuelsson this year need to yank on the reins a little bit in terms of expectations. Yes, he had a nice first pro season, but that was a long time ago and he is not the same player at this time.

  66. Chachi says:

    Eastern Oil: Are you Dr Nick’s good friend Mr. McGreg that has a leg for an arm and an arm for a leg?

    Ha!

  67. trencan says:

    Side: I read LT’s comment as “stay away from most of Detroit’s forwards but Vanek and Helm”.

    I like also Tatar. And Jurco could be interesting low cost trade a la Marron….

  68. Jethro Tull says:

    Eastern Oil: Are you Dr Nick’s good friend Mr. McGreg that has a leg for an arm and an arm for a leg?

    The coroner? I’m so sick of that guy!

    And my favourite: Inflammable means flammable? What a country…..

  69. remlap says:

    Jethro Tull: The coroner?I’m so sick of that guy!

    And my favourite:Inflammable means flammable?What a country…..

    Call 1-800-DOCTORB! The B is for bargain!

  70. OilSafety says:

    OilSafety,

    After reviewing my own post, I realize I missed part of the Shattenkirk trade.
    add D Jordan Oesterle, 2018 conditional 1st round pick on the Edmonton side.

    Obviously they would have to be pretty sure he would resign to give up Davidson, but if Shattenkirk can be swayed that would be a reasonable price in my opinion.

  71. russ99 says:

    I don’t like the idea of moving Eberle if we add a RW, but this summer I could think different.

    The concern has to do with the second line given that Draisaitl is moved back to second line center:

    1. Eberle is more effective and better points-wise as a RW than our other second line RW options.

    2. RNH has more value both to us and potential trade partners as a center than a RW

    I see much more offense if we run with:

    Maroon – McDavid – X
    Lucic – Draisaitl – Eberle

    The only thing that could change this is also acquiring a 3C, which then would keep Draisaitl on McDavid’s line.

    it may be moot, I think the chances are high that both Eberle and Nugent-Hopkins are moved before Connor signs his big contract in the summer of 2018.

  72. Ducey says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Ducey,

    All good points. That said, Samuelsson is not like Maroon at all in play style. Just to weigh in.

    Maroon: plus shot, plus cycle game, plus passer (for a big man), average skater
    Samuelsson: average skater, average shot, no cycle game, average passer, good hustle, good physical presence, always arriving late to the play (at the AHL level), tends to chase the puck, not anticipate where it is going (since you mention Gretzky–“don’t go where the puck has been, go where it is going.”)

    It’s a fine trade, don’t get me wrong. But people who have not seen Samuelsson this year need to yank on the reins a little bit in terms of expectations. Yes, he had a nice first pro season, but that was a long time ago and he is not the same player at this time.

    Agreed. I am just going on what he was like in the AHL.

  73. hunter1909 says:

    russ99: it may be moot, I think the chances are high that both Eberle and Nugent-Hopkins are moved before Connor signs his big contract in the summer of 2018.

    Why not keep two players that the team 100% knows are capable of delivering big in a secondary role? Why be in a hurry to ditch the last of the golden boys, particularly since both aren’t playing particularly terribly.

    On the other hand: If it comes down between one of them and a top pairing miracle version of Nurse, then you got to do what you got’s to do.

  74. hunter1909 says:

    Too bitch slapped from the last game to make any predictions.

    Oilers, fresh off nice little run of winning games could either bounce back big tonight or continue what ends up a 5 game losing streak.

  75. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Joe Colborne’s game log is one for the ages. A hat trick in his first game in Colorado, and here it is February & he still has 3 goals on the season. An assist in Game 4 and since then, bupkis. In his last 34 games, 0-0-0, -18. That puts the “ugh” in “ugly”, what?

    He’s not exactly crushing it on the dot either, under 3 draws per game with a 39.6% win rate. Oh yeah, he’s a lefty. His FF% is in the 40s for the 7th time in his 7 year career, and minus relative to team for the 6th time. His GF% is in the teens FFS.

    At $2.5 MM for this year & next he’s got Lauri Korpikoski’s old contract — without the results! A front runner for the worst signing of last summer if not the worst player in the NHL. If Colorado retains a big chunk &/or sweetens the pot with an actual +ve asset then *maybe* you consider Colborne, but my instinct would be to stay far, far away from this dude. A poster boy for the shitshow in Colorado.

  76. StixMalone says:

    I think the play is this. Shattenkirk and Hanzal are the main targets. All other trades are secondary and probably minor deals. Now who they give up for said players is another story. I can’t see the future but my gut tells me this is what’s going down. I would be on board with those additions even if both sign short term contracts……

  77. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    I wonder what the price would be for Gustav Nyquist out of Detroit. New coach doesn’t tend to give him the minutes he used to get, scoring hasn’t been exceptional the last 2 years. 2 more years at 4.25 cap hit for a 27 year old left shooting RW who potted 27 goals a couple years ago.

    He has a NTC the next two seasons but I believe that still makes him expansion elligible (a topic on which I am not an expert). Detroit might move him for very little if they’re looking to dump salary.

  78. russ99 says:

    hunter1909: Why not keep two players that the team 100% knows are capable of delivering big in a secondary role? Why be in a hurry to ditch the last of the golden boys, particularly since both aren’t playing particularly terribly.

    On the other hand: If it comes down between one of them and a top pairing miracle version of Nurse, then you got to do what you got’s to do.

    Salary. The cap crunch is real once Leon and Connor sign their next deals.

    That $12M can go a long way, especially when we’re tight to the cap. 3-4 complementary players for the McDavid-Leon core.

    Time is running short for these guys to prove they can be veterans that will carry a heavy load and lead.

    StixMalone:
    I think the play is this. Shattenkirk and Hanzal are the main targets. All other trades are secondary and probably minor deals. Now who they give up for said players is another story. I can’t see the future but my gut tells me this is what’s going down. I would be on board with those additions even if both sign short term contracts……

    I’m thinking neither are feasible unless things change between now and the deadline.

    Shattenkirk won’t sign here and this isn’t the year to go all in on a rental, and the rumored ask for Hanzal is way beyond us at this point.

  79. OilSafety says:

    StixMalone,

    I second that.

    Contract time next year will sure be interesting. Chai is going to have quite the puzzle to juggle the salary cap while staying as competitive as possible.

  80. DocFan says:

    Another great post today.
    If only you had used this logic on that pesky concrete divider it would have gotten out of your way!

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Joe Colborne’s game log is one for the ages. A hat trick in his first game in Colorado, and here it is February & he still has 3 goals on the season. An assist in Game 4 and since then, bupkis. In his last 34 games, 0-0-0, -18. That puts the “ugh” in “ugly”, what?

    He’s not exactly crushing it on the dot either, under 3 draws per game with a 39.6% win rate. Oh yeah, he’s a lefty. His FF% is in the 40s for the 7th time in his 7 year career, and minus relative to team for the 6th time. His GF% is in the teens FFS.

    At $2.5 MM for this year & next he’s got Lauri Korpikoski’s old contract — without the results! A front runner for the worst signing of last summer if not the worst player in the NHL. If Colorado retains a big chunk &/or sweetens the pot with an actual +ve asset then *maybe* you consider Colborne, but my instinct would be to stay far, far away from this dude. A poster boy for the shitshow in Colorado.

  81. LMHF#1 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Ducey,

    All good points. That said, Samuelsson is not like Maroon at all in play style. Just to weigh in.

    Maroon: plus shot, plus cycle game, plus passer (for a big man), average skater
    Samuelsson: average skater, average shot, no cycle game, average passer, good hustle, good physical presence, always arriving late to the play (at the AHL level), tends to chase the puck, not anticipate where it is going (since you mention Gretzky–“don’t go where the puck has been, go where it is going.”)

    It’s a fine trade, don’t get me wrong. But people who have not seen Samuelsson this year need to yank on the reins a little bit in terms of expectations. Yes, he had a nice first pro season, but that was a long time ago and he is not the same player at this time.

    The hope is obviously that getting healthy + new situation will get him going. I’m glad they are taking a look. He at least has the potential (even if.it is far outside now) and the attitude. No need for a minor league enforcer who can score a few goals like Morozr. Those guys can be had for free. Might as well use the roster spot a tad better.

  82. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    LMHF#1,

    Oh yeah, I am not panning the deal at all; I have never been a Moroz fan (not that I have been a Samuelsson fan, either). I think it is a good move, but certainly have to temper everyone’s expectations. I have seen him a bunch this year live and he has been a huge disappointment. I hope it is all injury-related and he can recover and get his career back on track. Would probably have to ask the man himself if he thinks his struggles are due to the injuries and whether he feels different these days.

  83. Lowetide says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    LMHF#1,

    Oh yeah, I am not panning the deal at all; I have never been a Moroz fan (not that I have been a Samuelsson fan, either). I think it is a good move, but certainly have to temper everyone’s expectations. I have seen him a bunch this year live and he has been a huge disappointment. I hope it is all injury-related and he can recover and get his career back on track. Would probably have to ask the man himself if he thinks his struggles are due to the injuries and whether he feels different these days.

    I think that is fair. I had Alex Thomas on this morning, he was close to the Springfield organization while Samuelsson was there. Reiterated the injuries and mention that the Coyotes didn’t have much help around him (linemates) with the Falcons. I don’t know that to be the case this year, though.

  84. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Clay,

    I took LT’s comment as saying they should stay away from most of Detroit’s veterans except Vanek and Helm, but that may be just me.

    You’re right, I mis-read that.

    Sorry LT.

  85. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Lowetide,

    When I watch the Roadrunners, the guys that stand out are Christian Fischer, Anthony Duclair and Anthony DeAngelo. Aidn Hill is also a decent goaler. The next tier of guys that show good things includes Chris Mueller (speedy playmaking C), Tyler Gaudet (speedy checker).

    And guys like Duclair are sort of in the area where they are probably bottom 6-ers at the NHL level and top-line players at the AHL level. Fischer I think has a chance to be better, given he is a 1997 birthday. I could see him becoming a top 6 wing in the NHL if things break right for him.

    So if Duclair is a bottom 6 NHLer, top-line AHLer, well, Samuelsson is not in the same class as Duclair so where does that leave him?

  86. Kaptain Vikarious says:

    Lowetide:
    Sigh. Dear Woodguy: The Hell Zone is upper left, I was referencing that zone. Also, I mentioned Vanek as someone Edmonton might want to look at, along with Helm.

    Reading comprehension. Like humility…

    It’s a thing.

  87. sliderule says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Here’s the work that showed ZS didn’t matter as much as we thought.

    Gmoney wrote a script to check the author’s claim and confirmed it.

    https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/15/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-i-maybe-not-as-much-as-we-thought/

    https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/20/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-part-ii-a-lot-on-their-own-not-that-much-in-aggregate/

    You and your buddy keep telling me to read that Cane study over and over.I actually bookmarked it so I didn’t have to keep looking for it.?

    Cane says that players own their starts and because a number of starts on the fly the starts that they have from coaching doestnt mean much.

    I have only coached minor hockey but even at that level I always made sure at least the best D were on for an own zone start.You also would try to have a good faceoff man and good forwards if protecting a lead.

    I only know one man that coached above minor hockey level and when I inquired what his thoughts were on this he confirmed that employing your best defensive players for crucial face offs is standard procedure .

    That is why on the oilers you see rookies getting the most offensive starts and fewer defensive.The veterans who are considered sound defensively get the tough own zone.That is true this year and in the past under different coaches.

  88. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    DBO:
    Woodguy.

    Any chance of a Woodmoney look at Green from Detroit? Just curious how he stacks up. I just feel that acquisition cost and one more year of him fits the Oilers next 2 playoff runs. As long as he brings something to the table as a 2RD PP option.

    And Vanek in same deal kinda fits 2 of our biggest needs, and lets us run a balanced lineup (with Drai back at C), greatly increasing our likelihood of this mythical BALANCE picture LT has teased for the last 7 years.

    Maroon-McDavid-Vanek
    Lucic-Draisatl-Puljujarvi
    Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle
    Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian
    Caggulia-Lander

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Green
    Nurse-Benning
    Davidson

    Green – actually playing the toughs this year

    Anchors on DET’s 3 pairs are:

    Green (mostly with DeKeyser) 42% vs Elite -0.8 RelCF% and -2.3 RelDFF%

    Not doing terrible, but DET isn’t a good team either

    Ericsson (variety of partners) 37% vs Elite F’s

    Kronwall (variety of partners) 22% vs Elite F’s

    Last year Green got 3rd pair assignment with 22% vs Elite F’s.

    Maybe playing Green over his head is one of their issues?

    Kronwall’s numbers are terrible, DET has issues.

  89. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Kronwall’s numbers are terrible

    I agree, but I bet Brad Werenka thinks Kronwall is the bees knees!

  90. fifthcartel says:

    Vanek with McDavid could be interesting. Then allows one of the other centers to play with Lucic.

    Also, I’d stay away from Iginla. He sees done.

  91. CrazyCoach says:

    LT,

    Just looking at that scouting list up there, reminds me on an O-Pee-Chee checklist from the late 70’s. Wow!

    Because I’m feeling nostalgic these days, I watched some of my old videos this morning, including the 1977 WHA All-Star game introductions. Both Hull & Howe wore #9 for the West. Lots of familiar names and lots of “Who The Hell?”

    Looking forward to tonight’s game, but unless I eat dinner at Boston Pizza, I’ll probably miss some of it as tonight is Daddy-Daughter night, and I need to give my daughter full attention. However, she knows Daddy needs to see his Oilers play, so we’ll probably see the last two periods.

    I’m excited to see how the rest of this season plays out and how different this team might look at the trade deadline. Here’s hoping we get another Maroon type trade.

    Go Oilers Go!

  92. Alpine says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Green – actually playing the toughs this year

    Anchors on DET’s 3 pairs are:

    Green (mostly with DeKeyser) 42% vs Elite -0.8 RelCF% and -2.3 RelDFF%

    Not doing terrible, but DET isn’t a good team either

    Ericsson (variety of partners) 37% vs Elite F’s

    Kronwall (variety of partners) 22% vs Elite F’s

    Last year Green got 3rd pair assignment with 22% vs Elite F’s.

    Maybe playing Green over his head is one of their issues?

    Kronwall’s numbers are terrible, DET has issues.

    It looks DET is finally done. It took a while, but they finally suck. They could use a decade or two of wandering the desert.

  93. Lowetide says:

    CrazyCoach:
    LT,

    Just looking at that scouting list up there, reminds me on an O-Pee-Chee checklist from the late 70’s.Wow!

    Because I’m feeling nostalgic these days, I watched some of my old videos this morning, including the 1977 WHA All-Star game introductions.Both Hull & Howe wore #9 for the West.Lots of familiar names and lots of “Who The Hell?”

    Looking forward to tonight’s game, but unless I eat dinner at Boston Pizza, I’ll probably miss some of it as tonight is Daddy-Daughter night, and I need to give my daughter full attention.However, she knows Daddy needs to see his Oilers play, so we’ll probably see the last two periods.

    I’m excited to see how the rest of this season plays out and how different this team might look at the trade deadline.Here’s hoping we get another Maroon type trade.

    Go Oilers Go!

    Haha. I had a Bill McCreary Penguins, Keith McCreary too! I remember those check lists, they were damned hard to get hold of!

  94. Lowetide says:

    Kaptain Vikarious: Reading comprehension.Like humility…

    It’s a thing.

    I am learning! Give me time, dammit!

  95. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Clay,

    I took LT’s comment as saying they should stay away from most of Detroit’s veterans except Vanek and Helm, but that may be just me.

    You’re right, I mis-read that.

    Sorry LT.

    No worries. I am very easygoing. 🙂

  96. spoiler says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Todd McLellan is running his veterans (Kris Russell, Adam Larsson, Andrej Sekera) in the hell zone, and that is allowing the younger set (Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, Matt Benning) a chance to flourish against (slightly) lesser competition.

    ~47% OZS isn’t hell or even close to hell.

    Larsson’s 22% OZS last year was hell.

    ~47% OZS – ~52% is basically the same so all top 4 Dmen are close and Davidson/Nurse/Gryba aren’t far off either.

    The only outlier is Benning.

    What we know about ZS is that a lot of them are earned.

    Benning having the best CF% on the team and having the most OZS goes hand in hand both ways.

    Good CF% drives OZS

    Good OZS drives some good CF%

    There’s is really “nothing to see here” in terms of OZS% for the Oiler Dmen

    Gord, I hope I never see another Sledgehammer in my lifetime. Since they made their recent reappearance, I just skip over them and the related commentary. But your comment made me go read the ones above

    Not only does he use the dubious Starts Stat, he then deliberately obfuscates it.

    You are not even talking about the same stat when you bring in Larsson’s starts from last year.

    That’s because Vollman doesn’t actually use OZ Starts percentage despite the fact he calls it that.

    He uses a OZ/DZ ratio, which is what he should call it. This ratio is actually built to hide and exaggerate information rather than making it clearer. I talked about this when Sledges were used before.

    By his ratio, Larsson was about 31 percent last year. Actual starts were 20.9%.

    Benning in actual OZ starts percentage is 39%.

    33% would indicate even deployment amongst all three zones, so Benning is +6% above balanced deployment (and the earned starts we would associate with a dead even Corsi battle).

    That is 32 actual zone starts more than dead-even-slash-balanced.

    32

    Now tell me, were you able to glean that from the “Sledgehammer” above?
    😉

  97. Bag of Pucks says:

    1OV RNH has 1G and 3pts more than the undrafted Mark Letestu this season.

    Amongst NHL Cs this season, Nuge is 47th overall in TOI/PG. 56th overall in Gs. 77th overall in Pts/PG. 143rd overall in S% 155th overall in FOW%

    In a numbers based culture, I would suggest there is no upside on putting lipstick on the pig.

    The lad is having an incredibly disappointing season, at a time when many on this board were predicting a breakout year.

    If RNH does not have a significantly better back nine, I think it’s very reasonable to anticipate him moving from core building block to potential trading chip. Such is the reality of professional sports.

  98. stevezie says:

    Lowetide: No worries. I am very easygoing.

    Those gloves cemented on?

  99. Woogie63 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Green – actually playing the toughs this year

    Anchors on DET’s 3 pairs are:

    Green (mostly with DeKeyser) 42% vs Elite -0.8 RelCF% and -2.3 RelDFF%

    Not doing terrible, but DET isn’t a good team either

    Ericsson (variety of partners) 37% vs Elite F’s

    Kronwall (variety of partners) 22% vs Elite F’s

    Last year Green got 3rd pair assignment with 22% vs Elite F’s.

    Maybe playing Green over his head is one of their issues?

    Kronwall’s numbers are terrible, DET has issues.

    Cap Friendly for Detroit next year looks rough

    $68.3M committed
    17 roster contracts
    33 NHL contracts

    lots of +30 years with long contracts
    new building they will want to win in
    Ken Holland will be looking for a dance partner in February

  100. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: Sigh. Dear Woodguy: The Hell Zone is upper left, I was referencing that zone.

    Umm… the upper left quadrant scarcely makes an appearance in either the D or F graph. That’s because no player is in it.

    In the D graph, every single defenseman is in the lower two quadrants.

    It doesn’t appear that way because the zoom on the graph cuts off the upper quadrant… another thing about the Sledges that is deceiving to the eye;

  101. DBO says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Green – actually playing the toughs this year

    Anchors on DET’s 3 pairs are:

    Green (mostly with DeKeyser) 42% vs Elite -0.8 RelCF% and -2.3 RelDFF%

    Not doing terrible, but DET isn’t a good team either

    Ericsson (variety of partners) 37% vs Elite F’s

    Kronwall (variety of partners) 22% vs Elite F’s

    Last year Green got 3rd pair assignment with 22% vs Elite F’s.

    Maybe playing Green over his head is one of their issues?

    Kronwall’s numbers are terrible, DET has issues.

    Thank you sir. So Green at 2RD or 3RD (if we think Benning can play 2RD with Sekera) would be a solid fit, address huge need and balance out the back end. And his salary is not too prohibitive next year if we unload Fayne (as someone mentioned going other way for Green. Saves Detroit money, expansion eligible, etc.) in the deal. One more year of a full price Green fits the money issues since he falls off when McDavid gets the bank truck backed up to his house in 2 years.

  102. Lowetide says:

    McLellan on tonight, via Oilers website

    “We still may see some changes in the lineup, the lines, tonight,” said McLellan. “As we approach this game, it could be one or two little things. We have to look at the lineup and take note of individuals or groups of people that are getting stale. Sometimes it just doesn’t work over the long haul and you’ve got to mix a little bit and also look for ways to get individuals going.”

    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/preview-oilers-at-predators/c-286362226

  103. spoiler says:

    spoiler: That is 32 actual zone starts more than dead-even-slash-balanced.
    32

    This is less than 1 per game, for those keeping track.

    If we split these 32 starts into half earned and half given by the coach then we’re talking about a push from the coach of less than one Zone Start every two games. Not saying this breaks down exactly this way, but we do know some, if not most of these extra starts, will be earned. We can maybe use CF to determine an expected earned percentage, but we would be entering dangerous tautology territory methinks…

    It looks huge on the Sledgehammer. But looking at actual data, the push doesn’t exist.

  104. Glass says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    What would be an acceptable return for Nuge?

  105. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Woogie63: Cap Friendly for Detroit next year looks rough

    $68.3M committed
    17 roster contracts
    33 NHL contracts

    lots of +30 years with long contracts
    new building they will want to win in
    Ken Holland will be looking for a dance partner in February

    Makes my desire to take a strong look at Nyquist all the more feasible.

  106. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    sliderule:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    What we know about zone starts is that coaches employ players in zones where they are not a liability or in the case of offensive players you give them a bump with offensive starts.
    That is why you see rookies like Benning Nurseand JP being protected and players likeSekera and Letestu getting lots of own zone starts.
    Coaches control zone starts way more than you give them credit for

    I asked Gmoney to run the shift data for me this year and he did (G is awesome)

    When I get to a PC I’ll post a link to the data and also explain it a bit.

    You’ll see that the vast majority of shifts start on the fly and only half of the faceoffs during a shift are at the beginning of a shift. The other half are “earned”

    Coaches do hand out zone starts, but the volume compared to the rest of the play is pretty marginal.

    The difference between the toughest and easiest starts on a team and even more marginal and doesn’t mean much.

    Only when the difference is extreme (like Larsson last year) do we need to account for it.

    Check back in about an hour or so.

  107. Lowetide says:

    Glass:
    Bag of Pucks,

    What would be an acceptable return for Nuge?

    The problem with trading Nuge at a low ebb is that it harms the cluster. If we believe RNH is a 40-point center, then $6M a year is a bad overpay, even with the other things he brings. Trading him for a lesser player might ease the cap pain, but also cuts us off from a return to 56-point Nuge, which may still be there.

  108. classict says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    If Nuge was shooting at even 10% (which is still below career average) he’d be on pace for his second best goal total ever, 23ish goals and good for around 60th in the league most years. Hes got 4 seasons shooting over 10%, it’s likely he’ll bounce back to that.

  109. Georges says:

    Just read the Matt Cane articles on zone starts. One thing I found useful is his calculation of CF% for shifts that start in different zones.

    DZ 37.7%
    NZ 47.7%
    OZ 59.8%

    Where you start your shift off faceoffs will influence the Corsi you’ll earn for that shift. Starting in the DZ is going to penalize your Corsi. Starting in the OZ is going to help it. Makes sense.

    Unless your team iced the puck, who starts in each zone is a decision for the coach. If coaches are rational, they’ll lean toward players who can create scoring chances for OZ faceoffs and they’ll lean toward players who can prevent scoring chances for DZ faceoffs. Sliderule said this earlier in the post. I’m guessing because coaches understand the importance of not losing games, they’ll weigh their decisions on DZ starts more heavily.

    On this blog, Benning gets praise for good CF% (among other things) and Russelll gets heat for bad CF% (among other things). But, according to the Cane data, TMac’s decisions on where they start could be predetermining some of their CF% results.

    I pulled the 5v5 Corsi data for Oilers d-men off hockeyanalysis. I decided to only look at DZ and OZ faceoff counts and proportions because those zones are high stakes. For each player, I calculated the proportion of these “end zone” faceoffs that occurred in the OZ.

    Benning’s OZ proportion is 0.60, highest among Oilers defensemen. Russell’s OZ proportion is 0.46, lowest among Oilers defensemen.

    The difference between these proportions is statistically significant on the null hypothesis that TMac has no preferences on zone starts for his defensemen.

    What I’m seeing is that Benning’s and Russell’s Corsi results are determined to some extent by how TMac is using them on end zone faceoffs. How much of an extent, I don’t know because I don’t have the underlying data.

    TMac trusts Russell for defensive zone starts. Russell’s reward is a team worst CF%.

    TMac protects Benning by giving him offensive zone starts. Benning’s reward is a team best CF%.

  110. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges,

    There’s a lot to unpack there and I’m on my phone, but quickly:

    1) Score effects are large and I’m pretty sure the adjustments on most sites aren’t great

    2) PDO – use career number and figure out what a team’s “baseline” PDO is. I figure MIN the other day and it was 1009.

    Last year MIN had the same coach and mostly the same players and put up a PDO of 1003 (all situations, not just 5v5)

    This year they have a 1037.

    I truly believe that better bottom 6 players can move the PDO (and a goalie playing out of his head obv) but not that much.

    Also,

    Using naturalstatrick data will give you bad data.

    What are you using for HDSC data?

  111. Lowetide says:

    Georges:

    What I’m seeing is that Benning’s and Russell’s Corsi results are determined to some extent by how TMac is using them on end zone faceoffs. How much of an extent, I don’t know because I don’t have the underlying data.

    TMac trusts Russell for defensive zone starts. Russell’s reward is a team worst CF%.

    TMac protects Benning by giving him offensive zone starts. Benning’s reward is a team best CF%.

    Well, that was the prevailing wisdom, but new information is coming to the fore that says zone starts are basically earned (icing, etc) as WG mentioned on the Lowdown this morning. A lot of passionate verbal either way, and the smart folks seem to be on the side of ZSs having far less impact than in the past.

    As with all things on this blog, we move painfully slowly so the adult learners can pick things up at their own pace.

  112. nhlfullgame says:

    http://www.nhlreplays.com now have online livestream this game. try it !

  113. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: It is great that you do that and I think it is safe to say you speak for all of us (at least I hope!) when you do.

    The funny part of that iirc Kinger bitched about how “bad” LT’s posts were regularly for while until LT asked him “if it’s so bad, why do you read and post here”

    After that KO started many posts with a compliment on the LT’s post.

  114. commonfan14 says:

    Lowetide: Trading him for a lesser player might ease the cap pain, but also cuts us off from a return to 56-point Nuge, which may still be there.

    C’mon LT, he’s going to turn 25 next season. It’s clearly over for him.

  115. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Lowetide,

    I’d settle for 40 points at Evens, 50% on face-offs, positive relative possession metrics and the restoration of Power Play Witch status. That’s a versatile player worth $6M per.

    I think Nuge is capable of it but man is he taking a circuitous route to get there.

  116. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Rishaug was just on Gregor`s show and he`s as close to the team as anyone not named Bob.

    1) Oilers looking for a 3C

    2) Rishaug `has a funny feeling that Chiarelli figures out how to get Shattenkirk here at the deadline“

    Stated he`s not sure if its a rental deal or he signs an extension, but it sounded like he heard things he couldn`t repeat and danced around it a bit

    Interesting times.

  117. commonfan14 says:

    Maybe St. Louis is looking to re-unite that Yak and Nuge combo that always worked so well.

  118. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    So one deal for Berglund and Shattenkirk perhaps.

    I am scared at what will be going the other way for that.

  119. Lowetide says:

    On Insider Trading- Dreger mentions that teams are calling on Curtis Lazar and #Sens are listening but price is “extremely high”.

    Via SensChirp. Played in some famous tournaments with 97.

  120. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Rishaug was just on Gregor`s show and he`s as close to the team as anyone not named Bob.

    1) Oilers looking for a 3C

    2) Rishaug `has a funny feeling that Chiarelli figures out how to get Shattenkirk here at the deadline“

    Stated he`s not sure if its a rental deal or he signs an extension, but it sounded like he heard things he couldn`t repeat and danced around it a bit

    Interesting times.

    Huh. Shattenkirk would be a terrific addition (prices could change reaction, void where prohibited, if you experience chest pains call your doctor immediately).

  121. BONE207 says:

    Protagonist:
    Now I’m not saying that Lowetide has never had a Balance photo to actually show us, all I’m saying is has anyone seen the photo and Lowtide in the same place.

    I hope the photo looks like this…

    http://www.gettyimages.ca/license/171313546

  122. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Was Boudreau coaching MIN last year?

    I’m using corsica. Manny emailed that some games are missing location data for shots so he classifies all shots in those games as medium danger. I exclude those games from my calculations.

  123. sliderule says:

    Lowetide: Well, that was the prevailing wisdom, but new information is coming to the fore that says zone starts are basically earned (icing, etc) as WG mentioned on the Lowdown this morning. A lot of passionate verbal either way, and the smart folks seem to be on the side of ZSs having far less impact than in the past.

    As with all things on this blog, we move painfully slowly so the adult learners can pick things up at their own pace.

    I am 77 years old so I do consider myself an adult .A really old adult.

    The wisdom you mention is based on a flawed assessment of zone starts by one guy.

    It says that you are responsible for your starts by your play.

    If coaches couldn’t change lines that would be true .

    But of course he can.

    If you look at zone starts for oilers the rookies all have favourable numbers.Caggiula and JP being current year members.You can go back for years and find similar numbers.

    Is this chance of course not..

    The coaches have a huge effect on zone starts.

  124. BONE207 says:

    Lowetide:
    Sigh. Dear Woodguy: The Hell Zone is upper left, I was referencing that zone. Also, I mentioned Vanek as someone Edmonton might want to look at, along with Helm.

    HEY…calm your tits and show some respect. People get timeouts for less…LOL

  125. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    sliderule,

    All right, here the link to the data: https://app.box.com/s/opcmwncjszzu7m0t82933ko6lwybigbh

    G asked me to caution that: “this is ‘exploratory data’ (i.e. something I’ve written as a way to start digging into the topic), but not yet what I’d qualify as ‘database’ code i.e. not vetted or tested enough for me to publish. I think it’s generally correct but of course the possibility for errors is always there.`

    That said, here are some definitions:

    1) AveShift – average shift length in seconds
    2) On The Fly – number of shifts started without a faceoff
    3) True Ozone – number of shifts started with a faceoff in ozone
    4) True Dzone – same as above in Dzone
    5) True Nzone – same as above in Nzone
    6) During OZ – faceoff in OZ that happened during shift, not to start shift
    7) During DZ – same as above except Dzone
    8) During NZ – same as above except Nzone

    So if we want to see what the coach is thinking, we should look at True and if we want to see how the player is doing (or the team is doing with the player on the ice) we should look at During.

    Russell is far left in Volman`s chart, Benning is far right. Here are their True numbers to see what the coach is doing:

    Benning
    GP 39
    Shifts 897
    OTF 436
    TOZ 102
    TDZ 75
    TNZ 105
    DOZ 117
    DDZ 69
    DNZ 81

    48.6% of his shifts start on the fly
    11.3% of his shifts start in the ozone via coach
    8.3% of his shits start in the dzone via coach

    The difference in his “coached“ ozone to dzone is 27 over 39gp.

    That`s 0.69 more ozone shift starts than dzone per game.

    That is not “sheltering“ imo.

    Let`s look at Russell:

    GP 45
    Shifts 1252
    OTF 634
    TOZ 92
    TDZ 131
    TNZ 179
    DOZ 131
    DDZ 131
    DNZ 102

    50.6% of his shifts start on the fly
    7.3% of his shifts start in the ozone via coach
    10.4% of his shits start in the dzone via coach

    The difference in his “coached“ ozone to dzone is -39 over 45gp.

    That`s 0.87 more dzone starts than ozone per game.

    That is not `hell`, `buried“, or `heavy lifting“

    This is why most fancy stats people have thrown out ZS unless they are extreme.

    We just looked at the `toughest`and compared it to the “easiest“ zone starts on the team and its about 1.56 shifts per game difference.

    If we remember what Tyler showed, most ZS CF% advantage washes out at 22 seconds.

    The difference between the toughest and the easiest on the Oilers is 34.32 seconds of being at a CF% disadvantage per game.

    It doesn`t matter when the ZS are this flat.

  126. Doug McLachlan says:

    I like the idea of a better #3 Center and Berglund fits the bill at $3.7 million.

    If you were prepared to shift Drai back to #3 C and fill the gap at RW with Vanek that could also work.

    I still would like some pop on the back end be it Shattenkirk or Green (though we would need Fayne to go the other way).

  127. Lowetide says:

    sliderule: I am 77 yearsold so I do consider myself an adult .A really old adult.

    The wisdom you mention is based on a flawed assessment of zone starts by one guy.

    It says that you are responsible for your startsby your play.

    If coaches couldn’t change lines that would be true .

    But of course he can.

    If you look at zone starts for oilers the rookiesall have favourable numbers.Caggiula and JP being current year members.You can go back for years and find similar numbers.

    Is this chance of course not..

    The coaches have a huge effect on zone starts.

    Well, they have a huge impact on the ones they can control, but that is not a large portion of the game, according to new information that is coming available.

  128. healthyscratch says:

    Anyone else at the game tonight? I’m in 103.

  129. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Here’s the work that showed ZS didn’t matter as much as we thought.

    Gmoney wrote a script to check the author’s claim and confirmed it.

    https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/15/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-i-maybe-not-as-much-as-we-thought/

    https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/20/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-part-ii-a-lot-on-their-own-not-that-much-in-aggregate/

    </blockquote

    As the years advanced more full season player data has accumulated.

    Remember my 12 groups of comp, team, zone start.
    Upper, mid, lower; 1st, 2nd, 3rd,4th comp
    Upper, mid, lower; 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th team
    ZS by standard deviation.
    If you hold team,comp constant and only vary zs
    you end up with 144 groups of comp,team
    Easiest: bottom 4th comp,upper 1st team
    Hardest: upper 1st comp, bottom 4th team
    You can generate curves or lines for zs.
    Result curves that are flat according to his work.

    It must be remembered that to be wild card competitive a team needs to be +.30 evgf/60 better than their evgf/60

  130. Zelepukin says:

    commonfan14:
    Maybe St. Louis is looking to re-unite that Yak and Nuge combo that always worked so well.

    Yaks has now had 6 NHL coaches in less than 5 years. He is becoming the bad omen of the NHL.

  131. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Was Boudreau coaching MIN last year?

    I’m using corsica. Manny emailed that some games are missing location data for shots so he classifies all shots in those games as medium danger. I exclude those games from my calculations.

    That’s reasonable data.

    Yes, Boudreau started this year in MIN.

    If he had the keys to PDO does it show up in his previous years?

  132. sliderule says:

    Lowetide: Well, they have a huge impact on the ones they can control, but that is not a large portion of the game, according to new information that is coming available.

    Well don’t the coaches control all face offs other than icing.

    They even control changes on the fly.

    The undisputed fact that most rookies get favourable zone starts pretty much settled it for me as to how much control the coaches have

    The Corsi guys don’t like this as they don’t like the idea that zone starts controlled by coaches might affect their personal assessment of players

  133. highgloveside says:

    Colburne has had proven offense in Calgary the previous 3 seasons so there is no reason not to think he will produce more offense with Edmonton compared the COL league worst offence. I think he could be a really nice fit between Lucic and Caggiula. he is a big, strong 30-35 pt 3C, just what the Oilers need. Can probably get him for a 4th or 5th round pick

  134. classict says:

    sliderule: Well don’t the coaches control all face offs other than icing.

    They even control changes on the fly.

    The undisputed fact that most rookies get favourable zone starts pretty much settled it for me as to how much control the coaches have

    The Corsi guys don’t like this asthey don’t like the idea that zone starts controlled by coaches might affect their personalassessment of players

    That makes no sense…for a long time people were using those zone starts controlled by coaches to asses players. It was never an issue for anyone to use them. People just happened realize a little later on that it actually matters much much less than most originally thought.

  135. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The funny part of that iirc Kinger bitched about how “bad” LT’s posts were regularly for while until LT asked him “if it’s so bad, why do you read and post here”

    After that KO started many posts with a compliment on the LT’s post.

    Oh, I remember that dust up pretty well. I can’t speak for KO, but I hope that continuing to compliment LT’s posts has been done in a sincere way because LT’s posts are pretty darn great.

  136. Lowetide says:

    sliderule: Well don’t the coaches control all face offs other than icing.

    They even control changes on the fly.

    The undisputed fact that most rookies get favourable zone starts pretty much settled it for me as to how much control the coaches have

    The Corsi guys don’t like this asthey don’t like the idea that zone starts controlled by coaches might affect their personalassessment of players

    I think the idea has to do with the number of faceoffs in a game for a player relative to shifts. If you have 20 shits, and five faceoffs, then the impact is perhaps less than implied above in the Vollman sledgehammer. And of course, all seasons are not equal, Edmonton is starting (on average) in a lot better spot on the ice than in 2010 (at least that is my understanding).

  137. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: Oh, I remember that dust up pretty well. I can’t speak for KO, but I hope that continuing to compliment LT’s posts has been done in a sincere way because LT’s posts are pretty darn great.

    Its pretty much why we are here.

  138. rickithebear says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    “Paging mr. thebear. paging mr. thebear. Need a defenseman checked in the Green grocery aisle. Sounds like some people forgetting defenders need to defend again.”

    No manual work for awhile.

    I never believed in whiplash.

    Working on a sloped excavation yesterday.

    Logs of survey data was suprious.

    So used surveyed foundations to establish the 9 possible circumferential intersection points.

    Was walking around a dirt pile and down a slope.

    My feet went out from under my feet so fast that my body rotated much faster than flat ground.
    Launched my helmet up the slope.

    With the distance to contact shorter cause it was up slope, I was unable to break my fall.
    Realizing this I thought “Oh Shit”

    I then came too with field partner shaking me and saying are you ok.

    Tried to get up against people a rounds request.

    Did the wobbly leg athlete.

    Got loaded into the ambulance.

    Taken to hospital

    We’re 1/2 hr intervals showed a drop in the lower blood pressure number.

    While this was going on, I received 15 X-rays on joints above the knees.

    Was placed in observation for the evening. Blood pressure levelled, and the fog reduced.
    By morning I felt better.

    I requested going to work to avoid lost time.

    Have been put on modified duty.

    Will work a maximum of 4 hrs per day.

    Leaving the hospital the light brought on a headache.

    Lasted 2hr at work.

    Nearly threw up!

    Will go in for 1 hr a day min and track how long it takes to be affected.

    Security will drive me the 45 Km both ways.

    “I will not be doing any of my manual work for awhile!

    But I will read you guys in the dark.

    Sore:
    Chest muscle
    Front neck
    Back neck
    Back muscles under the shoulder blades
    Muscles along the spine
    Low back
    Butt muscles.

    I now believe in Whiplash!

  139. Centre of attention says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thanks for the Gregor comment WoodGuy, interesting times!

    Lowetide,

    Also, to maintain my pristine reputation around here, it was actually WoodGuy who mentioned Colborne. Heh.

    I had only posted that Duane Sutter was following the Avs around. 😉

  140. spoiler says:

    sliderule: Well don’t the coaches control all face offs other than icing.

    They even control changes on the fly.

    The undisputed fact that most rookies get favourable zone starts pretty much settled it for me as to how much control the coaches have

    The Corsi guys don’t like this asthey don’t like the idea that zone starts controlled by coaches might affect their personalassessment of players

    Coaches are far more concerned about shift length and the order their lines roll. No coach is pulling a line for a DZ faceoff 5 seconds into their shift.

    Some evidence of that “undisputed fact” would be nice. I read that and randomly picked a younger team like the Jets to look at… and your undisputed fact was in fact disputed by the facts. 🙂

    So-called “Corsi guys” like good data, and good presentation of the data, irrespective of the data’s consequences.

  141. Chachi says:

    Lowetide:
    On Insider Trading- Dreger mentions that teams are calling on Curtis Lazar and #Sens are listening but price is “extremely high”.

    Via SensChirp. Played in some famous tournaments with 97.

    Lazar might be my favourite Oil King ever, but he really has not done anything at the NHL level for Ottawa to demand an “extremely high” price.

  142. Centre of attention says:

    Lucic with Nuge, Pouliot with the kids.

    Everything else the same.

    Via Jack Micheals.

  143. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    rickithebear,

    Oh no. Very sorry, ricki. Take care of yourself and rest. You’ve been through more in the last couple of years than most people (or bears) in a lifetime.

  144. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: Edmonton is starting (on average) in a lot better spot on the ice than in 2010 (at least that is my understanding).

    That is correct. One would have to normalize ZS for their team’s play to have an accurate read of any “push”..

  145. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Centre of attention:
    Lucic with Nuge, Pouliot with the kids.

    Everything else the same.

    Via Jack Micheals.

    I think I said this might happen the other day. It makes some sense to me try out.

  146. spoiler says:

    rickithebear,

    Yikes, sorry to hear that.

    Time to hibernate, Brother Bear, and get healthy.

  147. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges,

    Boudreau coached WSH from 07/08 until 22 games into 11/12

    We don’t have WSH’s PDO in 06/07 to see if he made a difference, but we do have WSH’s PDO from 07/08 – 10/11 (all situations PDO)

    WSH from 07/08-10/11 PDO 1003

    He then coached ANA from 11/12 (58gp) – 15/16

    ANA PDO from 11/12-14/15 was 1005

    ANA PDO in 10/11 (pre-Boudreau) was 1011
    ANA PDO in 11/12 (1st year Boudreau) was 992

    So either Bruce is a PDO whisperer and hasn’t shown it until this year or his goalie is running hotter than the Sun and his team is shooting 11.2% in all situations when they have shot 8.98, 8.96, and 9.09 for the last 3 years.

    Yes, new coach, yes some new players, but man, 1037 is out of this world.

  148. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear,

    I hope you believe in concussions too.

    I thought bears were sure footed in the dirt?

    Take it easy for a while Mr. TheBear

  149. Centre of attention says:

    RE: Lazar,

    Thanks for the Memorial cup and some awesome memories, but no thanks to a trade.

    I honestly don’t know how much of an NHL player is there. Definitely has done sweet f*&% all in Ottawa since arrival.

    You have to think concussions have played a part in the down spiral of his pro career, but yeah I don’t give up any assets for him.

    “The cost being high” tells you more about Ottawa’s front office than it does about the player to be honest.

    I swear to god if Chiarelli trades even a third rounder for Lazar it’s a lost deal already. Because at least Ottawa will have control over their selection longer than it takes the Oilers to not qualify Lazar.

  150. Scungilli says:

    Take it easy Ricki. You’re comment about whiplash reminds me of the ZS debate. It’s commonly thought whiplash is hard to prove but mine was clear as could be on X ray when I had them done.

    There are health professionals beyond MD’s that made a world of difference for me. Several car accidents and several sports injuries. Not all my fault honestly.

  151. sliderule says:

    Lowetide: I think the idea has to do with the number of faceoffs in a game for a player relative to shifts. If you have 20 shits, and five faceoffs, then the impact is perhaps less than implied above in the Vollman sledgehammer. And of course, all seasons are not equal, Edmonton is starting (on average) in a lot better spot on the ice than in 2010 (at least that is my understanding).

    You are right that the percentage of starts both offensive and defensive is not as large because of on the fly changes.How much I am not sure as it’s hard to measure on the fly.
    When you look at Letustu who has to go in for own zone face offs you get how much the coach control it.
    Most of the folks here don’t agree with me but I am ok with that.

  152. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Media:

    Duchene asking price is high
    Hanzal asking price is high
    Shattenkirk asking price is high
    Barrie asking price is high
    Lazar asking price is high

    Media:
    No interest out there in Yakupov
    Oilers’ interest in Lucic means everyone knows they are going to move Hall

    I think I notice a pattern at play. Don’t you?

  153. spoiler says:

    Holy crap what a bounce on that Sekera dump in.

  154. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    We can also see in this data the “earned” zone starts.

    Benning
    GP 39
    Shifts 897
    OTF 436
    TOZ 102
    TDZ 75
    TNZ 105
    DOZ 117
    DDZ 69
    DNZ 81

    36.2% of his start faceoffs are “coached ozone” (102/282)
    43.8% of his in-shift faceoffs are “earned ozone” (117/267)

    Let`s look at Russell:
    GP 45
    Shifts 1252
    OTF 634
    TOZ 92
    TDZ 131
    TNZ 179
    DOZ 131
    DDZ 131
    DNZ 102

    22.9% of his start faceoffs are “coached ozone” (102/402)
    32.1% of his in-shift faceoffs are “earned ozone” (117/364)

    “earned” faceoffs are a big deal in the over scheme of zone starts.

  155. JDï™ says:

    rickithebear: I now believe in Whiplash!

    Rest easy Ricki. I had all those symptoms after a 17 foot straight fall onto hard packed Sask clay. Glad I was only 23 at the time.

  156. Centre of attention says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Depends on the media source but yeah there are definitely spins put on players from certain organizations.

  157. spoiler says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Yup, and sadly it has been there for a while… even pre-McDeity envy.

    Edit: I’m guessing in exchange for access favours.

  158. JDï™ says:

    nhlfullgame:
    http://www.nhlreplays.com now have online livestream this game. try it !

    Or for a good stream:

    http://stream4us.info/stream/oilers.html

  159. spoiler says:

    Nice of NAS TV to replay the good play by Hendo.

  160. JDï™ says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I hope you believe in concussions too.

    Pfft… it’s all in your head!

  161. sliderule says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    We can also see in this data the “earned” zone starts.

    Benning
    GP 39
    Shifts 897
    OTF 436
    TOZ 102
    TDZ 75
    TNZ 105
    DOZ 117
    DDZ 69
    DNZ 81

    36.2% of his start faceoffs are “coached ozone” (102/282)
    43.8% of his in-shift faceoffs are “earned ozone” (117/267)

    Let`s look at Russell:
    GP 45
    Shifts 1252
    OTF 634
    TOZ 92
    TDZ 131
    TNZ 179
    DOZ 131
    DDZ 131
    DNZ 102

    22.9% of his start faceoffs are “coached ozone” (102/402)
    32.1% of his in-shift faceoffs are “earned ozone” (117/364)

    “earned” faceoffs are a big deal in the over scheme of zone starts.

    I have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.?
    I have to laugh at myself ?For even getting into this

  162. Lowetide says:

    sliderule: You are right that the percentage of starts both offensive and defensive is not as large because of on the fly changes.How much I am not sure as it’s hard to measure on the fly.
    Whenyou look at Letustu who has to go in for own zone face offs you get how much the coach control it.
    Most of the folks here don’t agree with me but I am ok with that.

    I think I agree with you more than the new wisdom, but smart people are adopting it. Suspect we will have it surrounded in 2060. 🙂

  163. spoiler says:

    Six and a half minutes till the first shot on net. Sheesh.

  164. russ99 says:

    Letestu had some nice looks.

  165. spoiler says:

    sliderule: When you look at Letustu who has to go in for own zone face offs you get how much the coach control it.

    Letestu does have an extreme number… this is precisely what facts-driven people look for.

    To extrapolate from Letestu to all players in some form of general rule, however, is not.

  166. sliderule says:

    Lowetide,

    I love this blog.

    Vow I will try to read more and post less

  167. Lowetide says:

    Caggiula with a poor play and takes a penalty. Rookies. Oilers are going to need to be sharper to get a point this evening.

  168. Centre of attention says:

    Stupid place to put your stick, doesn’t matter if he closes his arm Mr. Cagguila.

  169. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    Lowetide,

    I love this blog.

    Vow I will try to read more and post less

    DO NOT post less. I enjoy your posts very much.

  170. russ99 says:

    Come on boys, get in the game. Way too sloppy so far.

  171. Lowetide says:

    Russell took a Subban shot to the somethings. Lordy.

  172. Centre of attention says:

    That comment by Rishaug about the Oilers looking for a 3C shines bright right now.

    Can we talk the dogs down to a 2018 second and a LHD prospect? Stay tuned during the Oilers bye-week.

  173. spoiler says:

    Looks like Caggiula was hoping for a high stick against the Preds and not his blatantly obvious hook.

  174. russ99 says:

    Lowetide:
    Russell took a Subban shot to the somethings. Lordy.

    Yeah up high, not pretty. Correction: Shin pad. Still looked painful.

  175. Rocknrolla says:

    Zelepukin: Yaks has now had 6 NHL coaches in less than 5 years. He is becoming the bad omen of the NHL.

    Coach Killer Yak!

  176. JDï™ says:

    This Arvidsson guy can go piss up a rope.

  177. Centre of attention says:

    The Oilers are definitely not going to win this game if the second period looks anything like this.

  178. spoiler says:

    Gord, I want Ellis bad.

  179. Lowetide says:

    Third penalty of the period, this was the only one that was justified by circumstance.

  180. spoiler says:

    Bad call by the ref, but a tough call to get right.

  181. Lowetide says:

    A nice little move by Caggiula there.

  182. russ99 says:

    Drake is going to be a heck of a player in a few years.

    Kind of an ugly period, but we didn’t let one in. I suspect Todd lets them have it between periods, and we have more jump like the Anaheim and San Jose games.

  183. Spengler says:

    Pouliot seems to be playing deeper on the forecheck. I wonder how much of that is linemates.

  184. spoiler says:

    First periods have seemed weak to my eye after travel days, this one no different. Hopefully they find their legs for the second.

  185. JDï™ says:

    Lowetide:
    A nice little move by Caggiula there.

    My comparable for him is Peca, and I think he can get there. Tough little hombre with some skill, just has to work on defensive awareness and gain experience.

    A good ‘bend but don’t break’ road period. Hopefully they don’t have to lean on Talbot as much in the next two.

  186. spoiler says:

    Don’t know how many of you are seeing this PK interview, but getting better shots over lots of shots struck me as a theme. As well as creating 2nd and 3rd opportunities (rebounds).

  187. Lowetide says:

    Nashville has the edge in 5×5 Corsi (10-4) and 9-4 in shots. McLellan cannot be pleased.

  188. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Period started off great, They had some pep in their step

    three straight trips to the box derailed the flow

  189. Lowetide says:

    Kris Russell should not be allowed to go behind his net and pass the puck out. Terrible.

  190. spoiler says:

    Oh Russell!

  191. spoiler says:

    What vision by Drai

  192. Zelepukin says:

    Lowetide:
    Kris Russell should not be allowed to go behind his net and pass the puck out. Terrible.

    This is the Russell play. Gain possession, decide not to pass it up but instead go behind the net, let the opposition pressure him and then give it away.

  193. Rocknrolla says:

    Lowetide:
    Kris Russell should not be allowed to go behind his net and pass the puck out. Terrible.

    These set play breakouts are just brutal. That’s coaching telling them to follow the plan. Fix it TOdd!

  194. spoiler says:

    And then Drai makes a risky play and it’s in our net.

  195. spoiler says:

    Great graphic on Talbot there.

  196. Lowetide says:

    Nice hit by Davidson there on Arvidsson.

  197. delooper says:

    National stereotypes. . . sigh. . . “The big German marches to the net”. I’m not one to quote Trump, but “Sad.”

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